Predisease: when does it make sense?

Evolution of the diagnostic value of "the sugar of the blood": hitting the sweet spot to identify alterations in glucose dynamics

In this paper, we provide an overview of the evolution of the definition of hyperglycemia during the past century and the alterations in glucose dynamics that cause fasting and postprandial hyperglycemia. We discuss how extensive mechanistic, physiological research into the factors and pathways that regulate the appearance of glucose in the circulation and its uptake and metabolism by tissues and organs has contributed knowledge that has advanced our understanding of different types of hyperglycemia, namely prediabetes and diabetes and their subtypes (impaired fasting plasma glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, combined impaired fasting plasma glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, gestational diabetes mellitus), their relationships with medical complications, and how to prevent and treat hyperglycemia.

Africa and the Nexus of poverty, malnutrition and diseases

This review examines the nexus of poverty, malnutrition and diseases in Africa, the challenges, implications and their mitigation. The paper takes a critical look at available literatures on the primary causes, modes, implications and solutions to the problems of poverty, malnutrition and diseases in Africa continent. Poverty and malnutrition are outcomes of uncontrolled rapid population growth, inefficient agricultural and industrial practices, high debt profile of many African countries due to poor governance and corruption, diseases such as AIDS epidemic, malaria, Ebola virus and COVID-19 pandemic, poor and inadequate health infrastructure and armed conflicts. African poverty scenario entails non-availability of basic human needs which makes many Africans to be very poor. Despite abundance of natural resources, the gross domestic product per capita of many African countries is among the lowest of list of nations of the world. According United Nation in 2009, 22 of 24 nations among the "Low Human Development" nations of the world on the UN's Human Development Index were found in sub-Saharan Africa. Out of the 50 countries on the United Nation list of least developed countries, 34 of them were in Africa. According to FAO data over 200 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were undernourished in 2014-2016. The prevalence of undernourishment in sub-Saharan Africa rose from 181 million in 2010 to 222 million in 2016. In 2016, Africa had the highest prevalence of undernourishment in the world and estimated to be 20% of the population. While this was alarming in Eastern Africa where one-third of the population is suspected to be undernourished. In a similar data, World Bank also found that sub-Saharan Africa Poverty and Equity Data was 47% with over 500 million people in abject poverty in 2012. Poverty is the major cause of hunger and malnutrition in Africa while hunger and malnutrition escalated the problem of diseases in African continent. Poverty has continued to torment Africa as a result of poor and harmful economic policies, conflict and war, environmental factors like drought and climate change and population growth, poor leadership and greed. With the advent of COVID-19, the problem of poverty, malnutrition and diseases has been escalated and in many African countries people find it difficult to make ends meet.

A syndemic of psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and poor physical health among young Scottish men with reduced life expectancy

Background

Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, driven by high rates of cancer, suicides, alcohol-related causes and drug-related poisonings. These disparities cannot be explained solely by socioeconomic deprivation. Our aim was to investigate whether a syndemic in a socioeconomically deprived area of Glasgow might account for premature mortality among men.

Methods

We analysed data from two cross-sectional population surveys: a national sample of 1916 British men and another of 765 men in Glasgow East. The survey included men aged 18–34, and was undertaken in 2011 to study correlates of violence. Questionnaires covered current physical health, psychiatric symptoms, substance misuse, and crime and violence. Syndemic components were identified using confirmatory factor analysis. Associations and synergistic interactions between these variables and health status were estimated using logistic regression.

Results

An aggregation of multiple health conditions and health-related behaviours was found in Glasgow East. A syndemic model of joint effects, adducing a four-component latent variable (violence, substance dependence, psychiatric morbidity and a diathesis of biological/behavioural risk) showed synergy between components and explained persistent disparities in poor physical health/chronic health conditions. Effect modification was found between the general syndemic factor and contextual variables at individual and social environmental level according to location.

Conclusions

Syndemic effects from synergistic interactions were confirmed between psychiatric morbidity, substance misuse, violence, and biological/behavioural risk for physical health. A hypothetical model was developed to explain how the syndemic leads to potentially life-threatening risks to young men, both currently and as precursors of physical health conditions which may shorten their lives in the future.

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Scotland has the shortest life expectancy in Western Europe, especially among men in areas of Glasgow. This has not responded to Public Health interventions.

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A syndemic was identified among young men with synergism between violence, substance misuse, biological/behavioural physical health risks, and psychiatric morbidity.

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Synergistic interactions between components of the syndemic may result in precursors of multiple physical health conditions which will shorten men's lives in the future.

Pioglitazone for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at risk for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The term prediabetes is used to describe a population with an elevated risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). With projections of an increase in the incidence of T2DM, prevention or delay of the disease and its complications is paramount. It is currently unknown whether pioglitazone is beneficial in the treatment of people with increased risk of developing T2DM.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of pioglitazone for prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people at risk of developing T2DM.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Chinese databases, ICTRP Search Portal and ClinicalTrials.gov. We did not apply any language restrictions. Further, we investigated the reference lists of all included studies and reviews. We tried to contact all study authors. The date of the last search of databases was November 2019 (March 2020 for Chinese databases).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a minimum duration of 24 weeks, and participants diagnosed with intermediate hyperglycaemia with no concomitant diseases, comparing pioglitazone as monotherapy or part of dual therapy with other glucose-lowering drugs, behaviour-changing interventions, placebo or no intervention.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened abstracts, read full-text articles and records, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We performed meta-analyses with a random-effects model and calculated risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with the GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 27 studies with a total of 4186 randomised participants. The size of individual studies ranged between 43 and 605 participants and the duration varied between 6 and 36 months. We judged none of the included studies as having low risk of bias across all 'Risk of bias' domains. Most studies identified people at increased risk of T2DM by impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or both. Our main outcome measures were all-cause mortality, incidence of T2DM, serious adverse events (SAEs), cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke (NMI/S), health-related quality of life (QoL) and socioeconomic effects. The following comparisons mostly reported only a fraction of our main outcome set. Three studies compared pioglitazone with metformin. They did not report all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, NMI/S, QoL or socioeconomic effects. Incidence of T2DM was 9/168 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 9/163 participants in the metformin groups (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.40 to 2.38; P = 0.96; 3 studies, 331 participants; low-certainty evidence). No SAEs were reported in two studies (201 participants; low-certainty evidence). One study compared pioglitazone with acarbose. Incidence of T2DM was 1/50 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 2/46 participants in the acarbose group (very low-certainty evidence). No participant experienced a SAE (very low-certainty evidence).One study compared pioglitazone with repaglinide. Incidence of T2DM was 2/48 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 1/48 participants in the repaglinide group (low-certainty evidence). No participant experienced a SAE (low-certainty evidence). One study compared pioglitazone with a personalised diet and exercise consultation. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality, NMI/S, QoL or socioeconomic effects were not reported. Incidence of T2DM was 2/48 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 5/48 participants in the diet and exercise consultation group (low-certainty evidence). No participant experienced a SAE (low-certainty evidence). Six studies compared pioglitazone with placebo. No study reported on QoL or socioeconomic effects. All-cause mortality was 5/577 participants the in the pioglitazone groups versus 2/579 participants in the placebo groups (Peto odds ratio 2.38, 95% CI 0.54 to 10.50; P = 0.25; 4 studies, 1156 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Incidence of T2DM was 80/700 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 131/695 participants in the placebo groups (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.95; P = 0.04; 6 studies, 1395 participants; low-certainty evidence). There were 3/93 participants with SAEs in the pioglitazone groups versus 1/94 participants in the placebo groups (RR 3.00, 95% CI 0.32 to 28.22; P = 0.34; 2 studies, 187 participants; very low-certainty evidence). However, the largest study for this comparison did not distinguish between serious and non-serious adverse events. This study reported that 121/303 (39.9%) participants in the pioglitazone group versus 151/299 (50.5%) participants in the placebo group experienced an adverse event (P = 0.03). One study observed cardiovascular mortality in 2/181 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 0/186 participants in the placebo group (RR 5.14, 95% CI 0.25 to 106.28; P = 0.29; very low-certainty evidence). One study observed NMI in 2/303 participants in the pioglitazone group versus 1/299 participants in the placebo group (RR 1.97: 95% CI 0.18 to 21.65; P = 0.58; very low-certainty evidence). Twenty-one studies compared pioglitazone with no intervention. No study reported on cardiovascular mortality, NMI/S, QoL or socioeconomic effects. All-cause mortality was 11/441 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 12/425 participants in the no-intervention groups (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.91; P = 0.70; 3 studies, 866 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Incidence of T2DM was 60/1034 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 197/1019 participants in the no-intervention groups (RR 0.31, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.40; P < 0.001; 16 studies, 2053 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Studies reported SAEs in 16/610 participants in the pioglitazone groups versus 21/601 participants in the no-intervention groups (RR 0.71, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.32; P = 0.28; 7 studies, 1211 participants; low-certainty evidence). We identified two ongoing studies, comparing pioglitazone with placebo and with other glucose-lowering drugs. These studies, with 2694 participants. may contribute evidence to future updates of this review.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Pioglitazone reduced or delayed the development of T2DM in people at increased risk of T2DM compared with placebo (low-certainty evidence) and compared with no intervention (moderate-certainty evidence). It is unclear whether the effect of pioglitazone is sustained once discontinued. Pioglitazone compared with metformin neither showed advantage nor disadvantage regarding the development of T2DM in people at increased risk (low-certainty evidence). The data and reporting of all-cause mortality, SAEs, micro- and macrovascular complications were generally sparse. None of the included studies reported on QoL or socioeconomic effects.

Metformin for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in persons at increased risk for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The projected rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) could develop into a substantial health problem worldwide. Whether metformin can prevent or delay T2DM and its complications in people with increased risk of developing T2DM is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of metformin for the prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in persons at increased risk for the T2DM.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Scopus, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and the reference lists of systematic reviews, articles and health technology assessment reports. We asked investigators of the included trials for information about additional trials. The date of the last search of all databases was March 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a duration of one year or more comparing metformin with any pharmacological glucose-lowering intervention, behaviour-changing intervention, placebo or standard care in people with impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose, moderately elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or combinations of these.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors read all abstracts and full-text articles and records, assessed risk of bias and extracted outcome data independently. We used a random-effects model to perform meta-analysis and calculated risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes, using 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 20 RCTs randomising 6774 participants. One trial contributed 48% of all participants. The duration of intervention in the trials varied from one to five years. We judged none of the trials to be at low risk of bias in all 'Risk of bias' domains. Our main outcome measures were all-cause mortality, incidence of T2DM, serious adverse events (SAEs), cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke, health-related quality of life and socioeconomic effects.The following comparisons mostly reported only a fraction of our main outcome set. Fifteen RCTs compared metformin with diet and exercise with or without placebo: all-cause mortality was 7/1353 versus 7/1480 (RR 1.11, 95% CI 0.41 to 3.01; P = 0.83; 2833 participants, 5 trials; very low-quality evidence); incidence of T2DM was 324/1751 versus 529/1881 participants (RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.65; P < 0.001; 3632 participants, 12 trials; moderate-quality evidence); the reporting of SAEs was insufficient and diverse and meta-analysis could not be performed (reported numbers were 4/118 versus 2/191; 309 participants; 4 trials; very low-quality evidence); cardiovascular mortality was 1/1073 versus 4/1082 (2416 participants; 2 trials; very low-quality evidence). One trial reported no clear difference in health-related quality of life after 3.2 years of follow-up (very low-quality evidence). Two trials estimated the direct medical costs (DMC) per participant for metformin varying from $220 to $1177 versus $61 to $184 in the comparator group (2416 participants; 2 trials; low-quality evidence). Eight RCTs compared metformin with intensive diet and exercise: all-cause mortality was 7/1278 versus 4/1272 (RR 1.61, 95% CI 0.50 to 5.23; P = 0.43; 2550 participants, 4 trials; very low-quality evidence); incidence of T2DM was 304/1455 versus 251/1505 (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.47 to 1.37; P = 0.42; 2960 participants, 7 trials; moderate-quality evidence); the reporting of SAEs was sparse and meta-analysis could not be performed (one trial reported 1/44 in the metformin group versus 0/36 in the intensive exercise and diet group with SAEs). One trial reported that 1/1073 participants in the metformin group compared with 2/1079 participants in the comparator group died from cardiovascular causes. One trial reported that no participant died due to cardiovascular causes (very low-quality evidence). Two trials estimated the DMC per participant for metformin varying from $220 to $1177 versus $225 to $3628 in the comparator group (2400 participants; 2 trials; very low-quality evidence). Three RCTs compared metformin with acarbose: all-cause mortality was 1/44 versus 0/45 (89 participants; 1 trial; very low-quality evidence); incidence of T2DM was 12/147 versus 7/148 (RR 1.72, 95% CI 0.72 to 4.14; P = 0.22; 295 participants; 3 trials; low-quality evidence); SAEs were 1/51 versus 2/50 (101 participants; 1 trial; very low-quality evidence). Three RCTs compared metformin with thiazolidinediones: incidence of T2DM was 9/161 versus 9/159 (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.41 to 2.40; P = 0.98; 320 participants; 3 trials; low-quality evidence). SAEs were 3/45 versus 0/41 (86 participants; 1 trial; very low-quality evidence). Three RCTs compared metformin plus intensive diet and exercise with identical intensive diet and exercise: all-cause mortality was 1/121 versus 1/120 participants (450 participants; 2 trials; very low-quality evidence); incidence of T2DM was 48/166 versus 53/166 (RR 0.55, 95% CI 0.10 to 2.92; P = 0.49; 332 participants; 2 trials; very low-quality evidence). One trial estimated the DMC of metformin plus intensive diet and exercise to be $270 per participant compared with $225 in the comparator group (94 participants; 1 trial; very-low quality evidence). One trial in 45 participants compared metformin with a sulphonylurea. The trial reported no patient-important outcomes. For all comparisons there were no data on non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke or microvascular complications. We identified 11 ongoing trials which potentially could provide data of interest for this review. These trials will add a total of 17,853 participants in future updates of this review.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Metformin compared with placebo or diet and exercise reduced or delayed the risk of T2DM in people at increased risk for the development of T2DM (moderate-quality evidence). However, metformin compared to intensive diet and exercise did not reduce or delay the risk of T2DM (moderate-quality evidence). Likewise, the combination of metformin and intensive diet and exercise compared to intensive diet and exercise only neither showed an advantage or disadvantage regarding the development of T2DM (very low-quality evidence). Data on patient-important outcomes such as mortality, macrovascular and microvascular diabetic complications and health-related quality of life were sparse or missing.

Development of type 2 diabetes mellitus in people with intermediate hyperglycaemia

BACKGROUND

Intermediate hyperglycaemia (IH) is characterised by one or more measurements of elevated blood glucose concentrations, such as impaired fasting glucose (IFG), impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). These levels are higher than normal but below the diagnostic threshold for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The reduced threshold of 5.6 mmol/L (100 mg/dL) fasting plasma glucose (FPG) for defining IFG, introduced by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) in 2003, substantially increased the prevalence of IFG. Likewise, the lowering of the HbA1c threshold from 6.0% to 5.7% by the ADA in 2010 could potentially have significant medical, public health and socioeconomic impacts.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the overall prognosis of people with IH for developing T2DM, regression from IH to normoglycaemia and the difference in T2DM incidence in people with IH versus people with normoglycaemia.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, ClincialTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Search Portal up to December 2016 and updated the MEDLINE search in February 2018. We used several complementary search methods in addition to a Boolean search based on analytical text mining.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included prospective cohort studies investigating the development of T2DM in people with IH. We used standard definitions of IH as described by the ADA or World Health Organization (WHO). We excluded intervention trials and studies on cohorts with additional comorbidities at baseline, studies with missing data on the transition from IH to T2DM, and studies where T2DM incidence was evaluated by documents or self-report only.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

One review author extracted study characteristics, and a second author checked the extracted data. We used a tailored version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool for assessing risk of bias. We pooled incidence and incidence rate ratios (IRR) using a random-effects model to account for between-study heterogeneity. To meta-analyse incidence data, we used a method for pooling proportions. For hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) of IH versus normoglycaemia, reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI), we obtained standard errors from these CIs and performed random-effects meta-analyses using the generic inverse-variance method. We used multivariable HRs and the model with the greatest number of covariates. We evaluated the certainty of the evidence with an adapted version of the GRADE framework.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 103 prospective cohort studies. The studies mainly defined IH by IFG5.6 (FPG mmol/L 5.6 to 6.9 mmol/L or 100 mg/dL to 125 mg/dL), IFG6.1 (FPG 6.1 mmol/L to 6.9 mmol/L or 110 mg/dL to 125 mg/dL), IGT (plasma glucose 7.8 mmol/L to 11.1 mmol/L or 140 mg/dL to 199 mg/dL two hours after a 75 g glucose load on the oral glucose tolerance test, combined IFG and IGT (IFG/IGT), and elevated HbA1c (HbA1c5.7: HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4% or 39 mmol/mol to 46 mmol/mol; HbA1c6.0: HbA1c 6.0% to 6.4% or 42 mmol/mol to 46 mmol/mol). The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 24 years. Ninety-three studies evaluated the overall prognosis of people with IH measured by cumulative T2DM incidence, and 52 studies evaluated glycaemic status as a prognostic factor for T2DM by comparing a cohort with IH to a cohort with normoglycaemia. Participants were of Australian, European or North American origin in 41 studies; Latin American in 7; Asian or Middle Eastern in 50; and Islanders or American Indians in 5. Six studies included children and/or adolescents.Cumulative incidence of T2DM associated with IFG5.6, IFG6.1, IGT and the combination of IFG/IGT increased with length of follow-up. Cumulative incidence was highest with IFG/IGT, followed by IGT, IFG6.1 and IFG5.6. Limited data showed a higher T2DM incidence associated with HbA1c6.0 compared to HbA1c5.7. We rated the evidence for overall prognosis as of moderate certainty because of imprecision (wide CIs in most studies). In the 47 studies reporting restitution of normoglycaemia, regression ranged from 33% to 59% within one to five years follow-up, and from 17% to 42% for 6 to 11 years of follow-up (moderate-certainty evidence).Studies evaluating the prognostic effect of IH versus normoglycaemia reported different effect measures (HRs, IRRs and ORs). Overall, the effect measures all indicated an elevated risk of T2DM at 1 to 24 years of follow-up. Taking into account the long-term follow-up of cohort studies, estimation of HRs for time-dependent events like T2DM incidence appeared most reliable. The pooled HR and the number of studies and participants for different IH definitions as compared to normoglycaemia were: IFG5.6: HR 4.32 (95% CI 2.61 to 7.12), 8 studies, 9017 participants; IFG6.1: HR 5.47 (95% CI 3.50 to 8.54), 9 studies, 2818 participants; IGT: HR 3.61 (95% CI 2.31 to 5.64), 5 studies, 4010 participants; IFG and IGT: HR 6.90 (95% CI 4.15 to 11.45), 5 studies, 1038 participants; HbA1c5.7: HR 5.55 (95% CI 2.77 to 11.12), 4 studies, 5223 participants; HbA1c6.0: HR 10.10 (95% CI 3.59 to 28.43), 6 studies, 4532 participants. In subgroup analyses, there was no clear pattern of differences between geographic regions. We downgraded the evidence for the prognostic effect of IH versus normoglycaemia to low-certainty evidence due to study limitations because many studies did not adequately adjust for confounders. Imprecision and inconsistency required further downgrading due to wide 95% CIs and wide 95% prediction intervals (sometimes ranging from negative to positive prognostic factor to outcome associations), respectively.This evidence is up to date as of 26 February 2018.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Overall prognosis of people with IH worsened over time. T2DM cumulative incidence generally increased over the course of follow-up but varied with IH definition. Regression from IH to normoglycaemia decreased over time but was observed even after 11 years of follow-up. The risk of developing T2DM when comparing IH with normoglycaemia at baseline varied by IH definition. Taking into consideration the uncertainty of the available evidence, as well as the fluctuating stages of normoglycaemia, IH and T2DM, which may transition from one stage to another in both directions even after years of follow-up, practitioners should be careful about the potential implications of any active intervention for people 'diagnosed' with IH.

Diet, physical activity or both for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The projected rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) could develop into a substantial health problem worldwide. Whether diet, physical activity or both can prevent or delay T2DM and its associated complications in at-risk people is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of diet, physical activity or both on the prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing T2DM.

SEARCH METHODS

This is an update of the Cochrane Review published in 2008. We searched the CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, ICTRP Search Portal and reference lists of systematic reviews, articles and health technology assessment reports. The date of the last search of all databases was January 2017. We continuously used a MEDLINE email alert service to identify newly published studies using the same search strategy as described for MEDLINE up to September 2017.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a duration of two years or more.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methodology for data collection and analysis. We assessed the overall quality of the evidence using GRADE.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 12 RCTs randomising 5238 people. One trial contributed 41% of all participants. The duration of the interventions varied from two to six years. We judged none of the included trials at low risk of bias for all 'Risk of bias' domains.Eleven trials compared diet plus physical activity with standard or no treatment. Nine RCTs included participants with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), one RCT included participants with IGT, impaired fasting blood glucose (IFG) or both, and one RCT included people with fasting glucose levels between 5.3 to 6.9 mmol/L. A total of 12 deaths occurred in 2049 participants in the diet plus physical activity groups compared with 10 in 2050 participants in the comparator groups (RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.50 to 2.50; 95% prediction interval 0.44 to 2.88; 4099 participants, 10 trials; very low-quality evidence). The definition of T2DM incidence varied among the included trials. Altogether 315 of 2122 diet plus physical activity participants (14.8%) developed T2DM compared with 614 of 2389 comparator participants (25.7%) (RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.64; 95% prediction interval 0.50 to 0.65; 4511 participants, 11 trials; moderate-quality evidence). Two trials reported serious adverse events. In one trial no adverse events occurred. In the other trial one of 51 diet plus physical activity participants compared with none of 51 comparator participants experienced a serious adverse event (low-quality evidence). Cardiovascular mortality was rarely reported (four of 1626 diet plus physical activity participants and four of 1637 comparator participants (the RR ranged between 0.94 and 3.16; 3263 participants, 7 trials; very low-quality evidence). Only one trial reported that no non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke had occurred (low-quality evidence). Two trials reported that none of the participants had experienced hypoglycaemia. One trial investigated health-related quality of life in 2144 participants and noted that a minimal important difference between intervention groups was not reached (very low-quality evidence). Three trials evaluated costs of the interventions in 2755 participants. The largest trial of these reported an analysis of costs from the health system perspective and society perspective reflecting USD 31,500 and USD 51,600 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) with diet plus physical activity, respectively (low-quality evidence). There were no data on blindness or end-stage renal disease.One trial compared a diet-only intervention with a physical-activity intervention or standard treatment. The participants had IGT. Three of 130 participants in the diet group compared with none of the 141 participants in the physical activity group died (very low-quality evidence). None of the participants died because of cardiovascular disease (very low-quality evidence). Altogether 57 of 130 diet participants (43.8%) compared with 58 of 141 physical activity participants (41.1%) group developed T2DM (very low-quality evidence). No adverse events were recorded (very low-quality evidence). There were no data on non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, blindness, end-stage renal disease, health-related quality of life or socioeconomic effects.Two trials compared physical activity with standard treatment in 397 participants. One trial included participants with IGT, the other trial included participants with IGT, IFG or both. One trial reported that none of the 141 physical activity participants compared with three of 133 control participants died. The other trial reported that three of 84 physical activity participants and one of 39 control participants died (very low-quality evidence). In one trial T2DM developed in 58 of 141 physical activity participants (41.1%) compared with 90 of 133 control participants (67.7%). In the other trial 10 of 84 physical activity participants (11.9%) compared with seven of 39 control participants (18%) developed T2DM (very low-quality evidence). Serious adverse events were rarely reported (one trial noted no events, one trial described events in three of 66 physical activity participants compared with one of 39 control participants - very low-quality evidence). Only one trial reported on cardiovascular mortality (none of 274 participants died - very low-quality evidence). Non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke were rarely observed in the one trial randomising 123 participants (very low-quality evidence). One trial reported that none of the participants in the trial experienced hypoglycaemia. One trial investigating health-related quality of life in 123 participants showed no substantial differences between intervention groups (very low-quality evidence). There were no data on blindness or socioeconomic effects.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no firm evidence that diet alone or physical activity alone compared to standard treatment influences the risk of T2DM and especially its associated complications in people at increased risk of developing T2DM. However, diet plus physical activity reduces or delays the incidence of T2DM in people with IGT. Data are lacking for the effect of diet plus physical activity for people with intermediate hyperglycaemia defined by other glycaemic variables. Most RCTs did not investigate patient-important outcomes.

Small Molecule Mediated Restoration of Mitochondrial Function Augments Anti-Mycobacterial Activity of Human Macrophages Subjected to Cholesterol Induced Asymptomatic Dyslipidemia

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) infection manifests into tuberculosis (TB) in a small fraction of the infected population that comprises the TB susceptible group. Identifying the factors potentiating susceptibility to TB persistence is one of the prime agenda of TB control programs. Recently, WHO recognized diabetes as a risk factor for TB disease progression. The closely related pathological state of metabolic imbalance, dyslipidemia, is yet another emerging risk factor involving deregulation in host immune responses. While high cholesterol levels are clinically proven condition for perturbations in cardiac health, a significant fraction of population these days suffer from borderline risk cholesterol profiles. This apparently healthy population is susceptible to various health risks placing them in the "pre-disease" range. Our study focuses on determining the role of such asymptomatic dyslipidemia as a potential risk factor for susceptibility to TB persistence. Macrophages exposed to sub-pathological levels of cholesterol for chronic period, besides impaired release of TNF-α, could not clear intracellular pathogenic mycobacteria effectively as compared to the unexposed cells. These cells also allowed persistence of opportunistic mycobacterial infection by M. avium and M. bovis BCG, indicating highly compromised immune response. The cholesterol-treated macrophages developed a foamy phenotype with a significant increase in intracellular lipid-bodies prior to M.tb infection, potentially contributing to pre-disease state for tuberculosis infection. The foamy phenotype, known to support M.tb infection, increased several fold upon infection in these cells. Additionally, mitochondrial morphology and function were perturbed, more so during infection in cholesterol treated cells. Pharmacological supplementation with small molecule M1 that restored mitochondrial structural and functional integrity limited M.tb survival more effectively in cholesterol exposed macrophages. Mechanistically, M1 molecule promoted clearance of mycobacteria by reducing total cellular lipid content and restoring mitochondrial morphology and function to its steady state. We further supported our observations by infection assays in PBMC-derived macrophages from clinically healthy volunteers with borderline risk cholesterol profiles. With these observations, we propose that prolonged exposure to sub-pathological cholesterol can lead to asymptomatic susceptibility to M.tb persistence. Use of small molecules like M1 sets yet another strategy for host-directed therapy where re-functioning of mitochondria in cholesterol abused macrophages can improve M.tb clearance.

Dipeptidyl-peptidase (DPP)-4 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 analogues for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at increased risk for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The projected rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) could develop into a substantial health problem worldwide. Whether dipeptidyl-peptidase (DPP)-4 inhibitors or glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 analogues are able to prevent or delay T2DM and its associated complications in people at risk for the development of T2DM is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues on the prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people with impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting blood glucose, moderately elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or any combination of these.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; PubMed; Embase; ClinicalTrials.gov; the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform; and the reference lists of systematic reviews, articles and health technology assessment reports. We asked investigators of the included trials for information about additional trials. The date of the last search of all databases was January 2017.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a duration of 12 weeks or more comparing DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues with any pharmacological glucose-lowering intervention, behaviour-changing intervention, placebo or no intervention in people with impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, moderately elevated HbA1c or combinations of these.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors read all abstracts and full-text articles and records, assessed quality and extracted outcome data independently. One review author extracted data which were checked by a second review author. We resolved discrepancies by consensus or the involvement of a third review author. For meta-analyses, we planned to use a random-effects model with investigation of risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes, using 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. We assessed the overall quality of the evidence using the GRADE instrument.

MAIN RESULTS

We included seven completed RCTs; about 98 participants were randomised to a DPP-4 inhibitor as monotherapy and 1620 participants were randomised to a GLP-1 analogue as monotherapy. Two trials investigated a DPP-4 inhibitor and five trials investigated a GLP-1 analogue. A total of 924 participants with data on allocation to control groups were randomised to a comparator group; 889 participants were randomised to placebo and 33 participants to metformin monotherapy. One RCT of liraglutide contributed 85% of all participants. The duration of the intervention varied from 12 weeks to 160 weeks. We judged none of the included trials at low risk of bias for all 'Risk of bias' domains and did not perform meta-analyses because there were not enough trials.One trial comparing the DPP-4 inhibitor vildagliptin with placebo reported no deaths (very low-quality evidence). The incidence of T2DM by means of WHO diagnostic criteria in this trial was 3/90 participants randomised to vildagliptin versus 1/89 participants randomised to placebo (very low-quality evidence). Also, 1/90 participants on vildagliptin versus 2/89 participants on placebo experienced a serious adverse event (very low-quality evidence). One out of 90 participants experienced congestive heart failure in the vildagliptin group versus none in the placebo group (very low-quality evidence). There were no data on non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, health-related quality of life or socioeconomic effects reported.All-cause and cardiovascular mortality following treatment with GLP-1 analogues were rarely reported; one trial of exenatide reported that no participant died. Another trial of liraglutide 3.0 mg showed that 2/1501 in the liraglutide group versus 2/747 in the placebo group died after 160 weeks of treatment (very low-quality evidence).The incidence of T2DM following treatment with liraglutide 3.0 mg compared to placebo after 160 weeks was 26/1472 (1.8%) participants randomised to liraglutide versus 46/738 (6.2%) participants randomised to placebo (very low-quality evidence). The trial established the risk for (diagnosis of) T2DM as HbA1c 5.7% to 6.4% (6.5% or greater), fasting plasma glucose 5.6 mmol/L or greater to 6.9 mmol/L or less (7.0 mmol/L or greater) or two-hour post-load plasma glucose 7.8 mmol/L or greater to 11.0 mmol/L (11.1 mmol/L). Altogether, 70/1472 (66%) participants regressed from intermediate hyperglycaemia to normoglycaemia compared with 268/738 (36%) participants in the placebo group. The incidence of T2DM after the 12-week off-treatment extension period (i.e. after 172 weeks) showed that five additional participants were diagnosed T2DM in the liraglutide group, compared with one participant in the placebo group. After 12-week treatment cessation, 740/1472 (50%) participants in the liraglutide group compared with 263/738 (36%) participants in the placebo group had normoglycaemia.One trial used exenatide and 2/17 participants randomised to exenatide versus 1/16 participants randomised to placebo developed T2DM (very low-quality evidence). This trial did not provide a definition of T2DM. One trial reported serious adverse events in 230/1524 (15.1%) participants in the liraglutide 3.0 mg arm versus 96/755 (12.7%) participants in the placebo arm (very low quality evidence). There were no serious adverse events in the trial using exenatide. Non-fatal myocardial infarction was reported in 1/1524 participants in the liraglutide arm and in 0/55 participants in the placebo arm at 172 weeks (very low-quality evidence). One trial reported congestive heart failure in 1/1524 participants in the liraglutide arm and in 1/755 participants in the placebo arm (very low-quality evidence). Participants receiving liraglutide compared with placebo had a small mean improvement in the physical component of the 36-item Short Form scale showing a difference of 0.87 points (95% CI 0.17 to 1.58; P = 0.02; 1 trial; 1791 participants; very low-quality evidence). No trial evaluating GLP-1-analogues reported data on stroke, microvascular complications or socioeconomic effects.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no firm evidence that DPP-4 inhibitors or GLP-1 analogues compared mainly with placebo substantially influence the risk of T2DM and especially its associated complications in people at increased risk for the development of T2DM. Most trials did not investigate patient-important outcomes.

Epigenetics in the Primary Biliary Cholangitis and Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

Epigenomics, the study of modifications to genetic material that do not alter the underlying DNA sequence, is generating increasing interest as a means to help clarify disease pathogenesis and outcomes. Although genome-wide association studies have identified several potential candidate genes that may be implicated in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) and primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), it is estimated that these genes explain less than 20% of the heritability of these diseases. Thus, to date, the origins of “missing heritability” for PBC and PSC remain elusive. The epigenome may provide a potentially elegant solution to this phenomenon, as it can be modified by both internal and external exposures (coined the “exposome”). This may explain differences in disease presentation, treatment response, and rates of progression between individuals. Epigenetic changes may also provide a framework for discovering potential biomarkers for diagnosis and screening of PBC and PSC. Importantly, because the epigenome is modifiable, it may also highlight novel pathways for therapeutic discovery and interventions of these diseases.

Insulin secretagogues for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in persons at increased risk for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The projected rise in the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) could develop into a substantial health problem worldwide. Whether insulin secretagogues (sulphonylureas and meglitinide analogues) are able to prevent or delay T2DM and its associated complications in people at risk for the development of T2DM is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of insulin secretagogues on the prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people with impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting blood glucose, moderately elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or any combination of these.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and the reference lists of systematic reviews, articles and health technology assessment reports. We asked investigators of the included trials for information about additional trials. The date of the last search of all databases was April 2016.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a duration of 12 weeks or more comparing insulin secretagogues with any pharmacological glucose-lowering intervention, behaviour-changing intervention, placebo or no intervention in people with impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, moderately elevated HbA1c or combinations of these.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors read all abstracts and full-text articles/records, assessed quality and extracted outcome data independently. One review author extracted data which were checked by a second review author. We resolved discrepancies by consensus or the involvement of a third review author. For meta-analyses we used a random-effects model with investigation of risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous outcomes and mean differences (MDs) for continuous outcomes, using 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for effect estimates. We carried out trial sequential analyses (TSAs) for all outcomes that could be meta-analysed. We assessed the overall quality of the evidence by using the GRADE instrument.

MAIN RESULTS

We included six RCTs with 10,018 participants; 4791 participants with data on allocation to intervention groups were randomised to a second- or third-generation sulphonylurea or a meglitinide analogue as monotherapy and 29 participants were randomised to a second-generation sulphonylurea plus metformin. Three trials investigated a second-generation sulphonylurea, two trials investigated a third-generation sulphonylurea and one trial a meglitinide analogue. A total of 4873 participants with data on allocation to control groups were randomised to a comparator group; 4820 participants were randomised to placebo, 23 to diet and exercise, and 30 participants to metformin monotherapy. One RCT of nateglinide contributed 95% of all participants. The duration of the intervention varied from six months to five years. We judged none of the included trials as at low risk of bias for all 'Risk of bias' domains.All-cause and cardiovascular mortality following sulphonylurea (glimepiride) treatment were rarely observed (very low-quality evidence). The RR for incidence of T2DM comparing glimepiride monotherapy with placebo was 0.75; 95% CI 0.54 to 1.04; P = 0.08; 2 trials; 307 participants; very low-quality evidence. One of the trials reporting on the incidence of T2DM did not define the diagnostic criteria used. The other trial diagnosed T2DM as two consecutive fasting blood glucose values ≥ 6.1 mmol/L. TSA showed that only 4.5% of the diversity-adjusted required information size was accrued so far. No trial reported data on serious adverse events, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), non-fatal stroke, congestive heart failure (HF), health-related quality of life or socioeconomic effects.One trial with a follow-up of five years compared a meglitinide analogue (nateglinide) with placebo. A total of 310/4645 (6.7%) participants allocated to nateglinide died compared with 312/4661 (6.7%) participants allocated to placebo (hazard ratio (HR) 1.00; 95% CI 0.85 to 1.17; P = 0.98; moderate-quality evidence). The two main criteria for diagnosing T2DM were a fasting plasma glucose level ≥ 7.0 mmol/L or a 2-hour post challenge glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/L. T2DM developed in 1674/4645 (36.0%) participants in the nateglinide group and in 1580/4661 (33.9%) in the placebo group (HR 1.07; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.15; P = 0.05; moderate-quality evidence). One or more serious adverse event was reported in 2066/4602 (44.9%) participants allocated to nateglinide compared with 2089/4599 (45.6%) participants allocated to placebo. A total of 126/4645 (2.7%) participants allocated to nateglinide died because of cardiovascular disease compared with 118/4661 (2.5%) participants allocated to placebo (HR 1.07; 95% CI 0.83 to 1.38; P = 0.60; moderate-quality evidence). Comparing participants receiving nateglinide with those receiving placebo for the outcomes MI, non-fatal stroke and HF gave the following event rates: MI 116/4645 (2.5%) versus 122/4661 (2.6%), stroke 100/4645 (2.2%) versus 110/4661 (2.4%) and numbers hospitalised for HF 85/4645 (1.8%) versus 100/4661 (2.1%) - (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.64 to 1.14; P = 0.27). The quality of the evidence was moderate for all these outcomes. Health-related quality of life or socioeconomic effects were not reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence to demonstrate whether insulin secretagogues compared mainly with placebo reduce the risk of developing T2DM and its associated complications in people at increased risk for the development of T2DM. Most trials did not investigate patient-important outcomes.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter (SGLT) 2 inhibitors for prevention or delay of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its associated complications in people at risk for the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose cotransporter (SGLT) 2 inhibitors were recently approved as glucose-lowering interventions in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Potential beneficial or harmful effects of SGLT 2 inhibitors in people at risk for the development of T2DM are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of SGLT 2 inhibitors focusing on the prevention or delay of T2DM and its associated complications in people with impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting blood glucose or moderately elevated glycosylated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) or any combination of these.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE, ClinicalTrials.gov, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) and reference lists of systematic reviews, articles and health technology assessment reports. We asked investigators of ongoing for information about additional trials. The date of the last search of all databases was January 2016.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any duration comparing SGLT 2 inhibitors with any glucose-lowering intervention, behaviour-changing intervention, placebo or no intervention in people with impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance, moderately elevated HbA1c or combinations of these.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors read all abstracts, assessed quality and extracted data independently. We resolved discrepancies by consensus or the involvement of a third author.

MAIN RESULTS

We could not include any RCT in this systematic review. One trial was published in two abstracts, but did not provide separate information of the participants with impaired glucose tolerance, impaired fasting glucose or both. We identified two ongoing trials, both evaluating the effects of dapagliflozin (and metformin) in people at risk for the development of type 2 diabetes and a follow-up of 24 to 26 weeks. Both trials will mainly report on surrogate outcome measures with some data on adverse effects and health-related quality of life.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Due to lack of data it is not possible to conclude whether SGLT 2 inhibitors prevent or delay the diagnosis of T2DM and its associated complications.

Citicoline: A Food Beneficial for Patients Suffering from or Threated with Glaucoma

Oral form of citicoline, a nootropic and neuroprotective drug in use for almost five decades, recently was pronounced a food supplement in both USA and EU. The idea of adding citicoline to topical treatment of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) aimed at decreasing intraocular pressure (IOP) appeared as a logical consequence of accepting neurodegenerative character of this disease. Experimental data, and also few clinical studies indicate that this substance has potential to counteract some important pathological mechanisms which seem to contribute to POAG initiation and progression, such as excitotoxicity and oxidative stress.

Precocious cervical ripening as a screening target to predict spontaneous preterm delivery among asymptomatic singleton pregnancies: a systematic review

Routine second-trimester transvaginal ultrasonographic (TVU) screening for short cervical length (CL) predicts spontaneous preterm delivery (SPTD), albeit with limited sensitivity (35-40%) and a moderate positive likelihood ratio of 4-6. However, CL describes one of the multidimensional changes that are associated with precocious cervical ripening (PCCR) and that also include cervical softening, cervical funneling (CF), and dilation. PCCR, a precursor and a strong predictor for SPTD, was proposed as a potential screening target. We hypothesized that screening for composite measures of PCCR (eg, CL, CF, cervical consistency, and dilation) with the use of either digital examination or TVU would improve the prediction of SPTD compared with screening for short CL alone. We searched PubMed and EMBASE electronic databases for observational cohort studies to evaluate cervical screening in asymptomatic obstetric populations. Multidimensional composite cervical measures were assessed in 10 datasets (n = 22,050 pregnancies) and 12 publications. Appreciable heterogeneity in cervical measurements, data quality, and outcomes across studies prevented quantitative metaanalysis. Only one study reported intra- and interobserver reliability of cervical measurements. The prevalence of CF ranged from 0.7-9.1%. Five studies compared composite measures of PCCR (ie, CL and CF) with short CL alone and consistently reported improved screening performance. Among 3 TVU studies, gains in sensitivity ranged from 5-27%, and increases in positive likelihood ratio ranged from 3-16. Our findings suggest that composite measures of PCCR might serve as valuable screening targets. High-quality interdisciplinary studies that integrate epidemiologic approaches are needed to test this hypothesis and to accelerate the translation of advances in cervical pathophysiology into effective preventive interventions.

Looking for Trouble: Preventive Genomic Sequencing in the General Population and the Role of Patient Choice

Advances in genomics have led to calls for developing population-based preventive genomic sequencing (PGS) programs with the goal of identifying genetic health risks in adults without known risk factors. One critical issue for minimizing the harms and maximizing the benefits of PGS is determining the kind and degree of control individuals should have over the generation, use, and handling of their genomic information. In this article we examine whether PGS programs should offer individuals the opportunity to selectively opt out of the sequencing or analysis of specific genomic conditions (the menu approach) or whether PGS should be implemented using an all-or-nothing panel approach. We conclude that any responsible scale-up of PGS will require a menu approach that may seem impractical to some, but that draws its justification from a rich mix of normative, legal, and practical considerations.

Undenatured type II collagen (UC-II®) for joint support: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in healthy volunteers

BACKGROUND

UC-II contains a patented form of undenatured type II collagen derived from chicken sternum. Previous preclinical and clinical studies support the safety and efficacy of UC-II in modulating joint discomfort in osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis. The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy and tolerability of UC-II in moderating joint function and joint pain due to strenuous exercise in healthy subjects.

METHODS

This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study was conducted in healthy subjects who had no prior history of arthritic disease or joint pain at rest but experienced joint discomfort with physical activity. Fifty-five subjects who reported knee pain after participating in a standardized stepmill performance test were randomized to receive placebo (n = 28) or the UC-II (40 mg daily, n = 27) product for 120 days. Joint function was assessed by changes in degree of knee flexion and knee extension as well as measuring the time to experiencing and recovering from joint pain following strenuous stepmill exertion.

RESULTS

After 120 days of supplementation, subjects in the UC-II group exhibited a statistically significant improvement in average knee extension compared to placebo (81.0 ± 1.3º vs 74.0 ± 2.2º; p = 0.011) and to baseline (81.0 ± 1.3º vs 73.2 ± 1.9º; p = 0.002). The UC-II cohort also demonstrated a statistically significant change in average knee extension at day 90 (78.8 ± 1.9º vs 73.2 ± 1.9º; p = 0.045) versus baseline. No significant change in knee extension was observed in the placebo group at any time. It was also noted that the UC-II group exercised longer before experiencing any initial joint discomfort at day 120 (2.8 ± 0.5 min, p = 0.019), compared to baseline (1.4 ± 0.2 min). By contrast, no significant changes were seen in the placebo group. No product related adverse events were observed during the study. At study conclusion, five individuals in the UC-II cohort reported no pain during or after the stepmill protocol (p = 0.031, within visit) as compared to one subject in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily supplementation with 40 mg of UC-II was well tolerated and led to improved knee joint extension in healthy subjects. UC-II also demonstrated the potential to lengthen the period of pain free strenuous exertion and alleviate the joint pain that occasionally arises from such activities.

Recommendations for returning genomic incidental findings? We need to talk!

The American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics recently issued recommendations for reporting incidental findings from clinical whole-genome sequencing and whole-exome sequencing. The recommendations call for evaluating a specific set of genes as part of all whole-genome sequencing/whole-exome sequencing and reporting all pathogenic variants irrespective of patient age. The genes are associated with highly penetrant disorders for which treatment or prevention is available. The effort to generate a list of genes with actionable findings is commendable, but the recommendations raise several concerns. They constitute a call for opportunistic screening, through intentional effort to identify pathogenic variants in specified genes unrelated to the clinical concern that prompted testing. Yet for most of the genes, we lack evidence about the predictive value of testing, genotype penetrance, spectrum of phenotypes, and efficacy of interventions in unselected populations. Furthermore, the recommendations do not allow patients to decline the additional findings, a position inconsistent with established norms. Finally, the recommendation to return adult-onset disease findings when children are tested is inconsistent with current professional consensus, including other policy statements of the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics. Instead of premature practice recommendations, we call for robust dialogue among stakeholders to define a pathway to normatively sound, evidence-based guidelines.

High-normal blood pressure and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes: 35-year prospective population based cohort study of men

BACKGROUND

The link between type 2 diabetes and hypertension is well established and the conditions often coexist. High normal blood pressure, defined by WHO-ISH as systolic blood pressure (SBP) 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) 85-89 mm Hg, has been found to be an independent predictor for type 2 diabetes in studies, although with relatively limited follow-up periods of approximately 10 years. The aim of this study was to investigate whether hypertension, including mildly elevated blood pressure within the normal range, predicted subsequent development of type 2 diabetes in men over an extended follow-up of 35 years.

METHODS

Data were derived from the Gothenburg Primary Prevention Study where a random sample of 7 494 men aged 47-55 years underwent a baseline screening investigation in the period 1970-1973. A total of 7 333 men were free from previous history of diabetes at baseline. During a 35-year follow-up diabetes was identified through the Swedish hospital discharge and death registries. The cumulative risk of diabetes adjusted for age and competing risk of death was calculated. Using Cox proportional hazard models we calculated the multiple adjusted hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for diabetes at different blood pressure levels.

RESULTS

During a 35-year follow-up, 956 men (13%) were identified with diabetes. The 35-year cumulative risk of diabetes after adjusting for age and competing risk of death in men with SBP levels <130 mm Hg, 130-139 mm Hg, 140-159 mm Hg and ≥160 mm Hg were 19%, 30%, 31% and 49%, respectively. The HR for diabetes adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), cholesterol, antihypertensive treatment, smoking, physical activity and occupation were 1.43 (95% CI 1.12-1.84), 1.43 (95% CI 1.14-1.79) and 1.95 (95% CI 1.55-2.46) for men with SBP 130-139 mm Hg, 140-159 mm Hg, and ≥ 160 mm Hg, respectively (reference; SBP<130 mm Hg).

CONCLUSION

In this population, at mid-life, even high-normal SBP levels were shown to be a significant predictor of type 2 diabetes, independently of BMI and other conventional type 2 diabetes risk factors over an extended follow-up.

Mental ill-health across the continuum of body mass index

BACKGROUND

Several studies have found a non-linear relationship between mental ill-health and BMI with higher rates in both the underweight and the obese. This study evaluated the shape of the relationship between BMI and distress, suicidal ideation and self-reported mental ill-health conditions in a large population sample.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the South Australian Monitoring and Surveillance System (SAMSS) for the years 2002 to 2009 (n = 46,704). SAMSS monitors population trends in state and national risk factors and chronic diseases. Samples are drawn from all households with a functioning number in the Australian White Pages. Computer assisted telephone interviews collected information on self-reported height and weight, demographic and health behaviours. Respondents completed the Kessler Distress and suicidal ideation scales and reported specific mental ill-health conditions. BMI was categorized into deciles to allow for assessment of the shape of any associations with other variables. Logistic regression was used to examine associations between each mental ill-health condition and BMI-decile controlling for age in the base model. This was followed by a full model that added SES and the health-adverse coping behaviours of smoking, alcohol and physical activity to test for changes from the base model.

RESULTS

Non-linear associations were observed between BMI-decile and mental ill-health but statistically significantly greater odds of mental ill-health were observed only in the obese and not in the underweight after controlling for age, health-adverse behaviours and socioeconomic status. The association between BMI and mental ill-health might best be described as 'threshold'. Elevated odds were apparent for middle-aged persons, whereas younger and older individuals had a significantly lower odds of having a mental ill-health condition.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, this study has provided no support for the hypothesis of increased mental ill-health problems in the underweight but it has demonstrated the non-linear relationships between BMI and mental ill-health and between BMI and health-adverse behaviours. Non-linear relationships with BMI need to be recognized and addressed during analysis.

Overview of screening: where we are and where we may be headed

This volume of Epidemiologic Reviews continues a discussion about screening within the evidence community that has been going on for many years. From various perspectives, the authors of these reviews consider the benefits and harms of screening for multiple conditions; the balance between benefits and harms (and costs) is often not clear. With few exceptions, the contribution of screening to improving the health of the public is small, yet it has become a popular and growing form of prevention. It may be that we are learning that the magnitude of benefit from screening is less than we hoped, and the harms may be greater than we thought. Perhaps we should not think of screening as our primary prevention strategy but rather use screening to make a real, but limited contribution to population health for a few conditions. We might target screening to smaller subpopulations with the highest potential benefit and the lowest potential harm. The payoff for population health could be greater if we shifted some resources we now devote to screening to developing, testing, and implementing alternative approaches to preventing the important threats to population health. There needs to be a wider discussion about these issues with the public.