Validation of risk scores for ischaemic stroke in atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of kidney function

Gender and race disparities in the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among individuals with hypertension in the United States, 2001-2016

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common complication among individuals with hypertension. We aimed to identify the prevalence of CKD and the sex and race disparities within the hypertensive population in the United States from 2001-2016.

Methods

A total of 16,148 participants with hypertension were included, representing 561,909,480 individuals from the U.S. population between 2001 and 2016, as documented in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The prevalence of albuminuria and CKD stage were assessed using survey-weighted general linear regression analysis. Heterogeneity in the CKD stage among the hypertensive population, stratified by sex and race, was identified through survey-weighted logistic regression analysis.

Results

Overall, the prevalence of albuminuria remained stable (p for trend = 0.3196), and changes in the CKD stage were minimal (p for trend > 0.05) from 2001-2016. In the analysis of CKD stage heterogeneity by sex and race, the prevalence of CKD was higher among women than men and higher among individuals of other races combined than non-Hispanic Whites, but the differences were not statistically significant.

Conclusion

The overall CKD stage within the hypertensive population plateaued between 2001 and 2016. Our findings highlight the importance of continuous monitoring and potential refinement of renoprotection strategies in individuals with hypertension to mitigate the persistent burden of CKD and address health disparities among different demographic groups.

Performance of risk scores in predicting major bleeding in left ventricular assist device recipients: a comparative external validation

Background

Implantation of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) is a crucial therapeutic option for selected end-stage heart failure patients. However, major bleeding (MB) complications postimplantation are a significant concern.

Objectives

We evaluated current risk scores' predictive accuracy for MB in LVAD recipients.

Methods

We conducted an observational, single-center study of LVAD recipients (HeartWare or HeartMate-3, November 2010-December 2022) in the Netherlands. The primary outcome was the first post-LVAD MB (according to the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis [ISTH] and Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support [INTERMACS], and INTERMACS combined with intracranial bleeding [INTERMACS+] criteria). Mortality prior to MB was considered a competing event. Discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration were evaluated for the Hypertension, Abnormal Renal/Liver Function, Stroke, Bleeding History or Predisposition, Labile INR, Elderly, Drugs/Alcohol Concomitantly score, Hepatic or Renal Disease, Ethanol Abuse, Malignancy, Older Age, Reduced Platelet Count or Function, Re-Bleeding, Hypertension, Anemia, Genetic Factors, Excessive Fall Risk and Stroke score, Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score, Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index, venous thromboembolism score, atrial fibrillation score, and Utah Bleeding Risk Score (UBRS).

Results

One hundred four patients were included (median age, 64 years; female, 20.2%; HeartWare, 90.4%; HeartMate-3, 9.6%). The cumulative MB incidence was 75.7% (95% CI 65.5%-85.9%) by ISTH and INTERMACS+ criteria and 67.0% (95% CI 56.0%-78.0%) per INTERMACS criteria over a median event-free follow-up time of 1916 days (range, 59-4521). All scores had poor discriminative ability on their intended prediction timeframe. Cumulative area under the receiving operator characteristic curve ranged from 0.49 (95% CI 0.35-0.63, venous thromboembolism-BLEED) to 0.56 (95% CI 0.47-0.65, UBRS) according to ISTH and INTERMACS+ criteria and from 0.48 (95% CI 0.40-0.56, Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation) to 0.56 (95% CI 0.47-0.65, UBRS) per INTERMACS criteria. All models showed poor calibration, largely underestimating MB risk.

Conclusion

Current bleeding risk scores exhibit inadequate predictive accuracy for LVAD recipients. There is a need for an accurate risk score to identify LVAD patients at high risk of MB who may benefit from patient-tailored antithrombotic therapy.

Comparative Safety and Effectiveness of Warfarin or Rivaroxaban Versus Apixaban in Patients With Advanced CKD and Atrial Fibrillation: Nationwide US Cohort Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Head-to-head data comparing the effectiveness and safety of oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are lacking. We compared the safety and effectiveness of warfarin or rivaroxaban versus apixaban in patients with AF and non-dialysis-dependent CKD stage 4/5.

STUDY DESIGN

Propensity score-matched cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

2 nationwide US claims databases, Medicare and Optum's deidentified Clinformatics Data Mart Database, were searched for the interval from January 1, 2013, through March 31, 2022, for patients with nonvalvular AF and CKD stage 4/5 who initiated warfarin versus apixaban (matched cohort, n=12,488) and rivaroxaban versus apixaban (matched cohort, n = 5,720).

EXPOSURES

Warfarin, rivaroxaban, or apixaban.

OUTCOMES

Primary outcomes included major bleeding and ischemic stroke. Secondary outcomes included all-cause mortality, major gastrointestinal bleeding, and intracranial bleeding.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Cox regression was used to estimate HRs, and 1:1 propensity-score matching was used to adjust for 80 potential confounders.

RESULTS

Compared with apixaban, warfarin initiation was associated with a higher rate of major bleeding (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.59-2.15), including major gastrointestinal bleeding (1.86; 1.53-2.25) and intracranial bleeding (2.15; 1.42-3.25). Compared with apixaban, rivaroxaban was also associated with a higher rate of major bleeding (1.69; 1.33-2.15). All-cause mortality was similar for warfarin (1.08; 0.98-1.18) and rivaroxaban (0.94; 0.81-1.10) versus apixaban. Furthermore, no statistically significant differences for ischemic stroke were observed for warfarin (1.14; 0.83-1.57) or rivaroxaban (0.71; 0.40-1.24) versus apixaban, but the CIs were wide. Similar results were observed for warfarin versus apixaban in the positive control cohort of patients with CKD stage 3, consistent with randomized trial findings.

LIMITATIONS

Few ischemic stroke events, potential residual confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF and advanced CKD, rivaroxaban and warfarin were associated with higher rates of major bleeding compared with apixaban, suggesting a superior safety profile for apixaban in this high-risk population.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Different anticoagulants have been shown to reduce the risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation, such as warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants like apixaban and rivaroxaban. Unfortunately, the large-scale randomized trials that compared direct anticoagulants versus warfarin excluded patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Therefore, the comparative safety and effectiveness of warfarin, apixaban, and rivaroxaban are uncertain in this population. In this study, we used administrative claims data from the United States to answer this question. We found that warfarin and rivaroxaban were associated with increased risks of major bleeding compared with apixaban. There were few stroke events, with no major differences among the 3 drugs in the risk of stroke. In conclusion, this study suggests that apixaban has a better safety profile than warfarin and rivaroxaban.

Real-World Data on the Incidence of Stroke, Myocardial Infarction, and Mortality Among Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation Patients in Türkiye: New Oral Anticoagulants-TURKey Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is strongly associated with an increased risk of ischemic events. Anticoagulation focuses on reducing the risk of embolism. Guideline recommended CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system is most widely used; however, different scoring systems do exist. Thus, we sought to assess the impact of anticoagulant treatment and different scoring systems on the development of stroke, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality in patients with nonvalvular AF.

METHODS

The present study was designed as a prospective cohort study. The enrollment of the patients was conducted between August 1, 2015, and January 1, 2016. The follow-up period was defined as the time from enrollment to the end of April 1, 2017, which also provided at least 12 months of prospective follow-up for each patient.

RESULTS

A total of 1807 patients with AF were enrolled. During the follow-up, 2.7% (48) of patients had stroke, 0.8% (14) had myocardial infarction, and 7.5% (136) died. The anticoagulation and risk factors in AF (ATRIA) score had a better accuracy for the prediction of stroke compared to other scoring systems (0.729, 95% CI, 0.708-0.750, P <.05). Patients under low-dose rivaroxaban treatment had significantly worse survival (logrank P <.001). Age, CHA2DS2-VASc score, R2CHADS2 score, ATRIA score, chronic heart failure, prior stroke, and being under low-dose rivaroxaban treatment were independent predictors of clinical endpoint (P <.001).

CONCLUSION

Low-dose rivaroxaban treatment was independently and strongly associated with the combined clinical endpoint. Furthermore, the ATRIA score proved to be a stronger predictor of stroke in the Turkish population.

Atrial Fibrillation in Kidney Failure: Challenges in Risk Assessment and Anticoagulation Management

Management of atrial fibrillation (AF) is a clinical conundrum in people with kidney failure. Stroke risk is disproportionately high, but clinicians have a limited armamentarium to improve outcomes in this population in whom there is a concurrently high bleeding risk. Direct oral anticoagulants may have a superior benefit-risk profile compared with vitamin K antagonists in people on hemodialysis. Although research has predominantly focused on identifying a safe and effective oral anticoagulation option to reduce stroke risk in people with kidney failure (and predominantly those on hemodialysis), it remains uncertain how clinicians discriminate between people who would derive net clinical benefit as opposed to net harm. The recommended CHA2DS2-VASc score cutoffs provide poor discriminatory value, and there is an urgent need to identify robust markers of thromboembolic risk in kidney failure. There is increasing data to challenge the prior dogma of risk equivalence across AF type, and the American Heart Association highlights moving beyond AF as a binary entity to consider the prognostic significance of AF burden. Implantable cardiac monitor studies reveal high rates and varied burden of subclinical and paroxysmal AF in people on hemodialysis. The association between AF burden and the proarrhythmic environment of hemodialysis with cyclical volume loading, offloading, and electrolyte changes is not well studied. We review the significance of AF burden as a contributor to thromboembolic risk, its potential as the missing link in risk assessment, and updated evidence for anticoagulation in people with kidney failure.

Effect of COVID-19 on Acute Ischemic Stroke Severity and Mortality in 2020: Results From the 2020 National Inpatient Sample

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of nationally representative data regarding the impact of COVID-19 on acute ischemic stroke (AIS) outcome.

METHODS

We created a cross-sectional cohort of nationally weighted National Inpatient Sample nonelective hospital discharges aged ≥18 years with a diagnosis of ischemic stroke from 2016 to 2020. The outcome was in-hospital mortality and exposure was COVID-19 status. To understand the effect of COVID-19 on AIS severity, we report National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale by exposure status. In a final analysis, we used a nationally weighted logistic regression and marginal effects to compare April to December 2020 to the same period in 2019 to understand how the pandemic modified the effect of race and ethnicity and median household income on in-hospital AIS mortality.

RESULTS

We observed significantly higher AIS mortality in 2020 than prior years (2020 versus 2016-19, 7.3% versus 6.3%, P<0.001) and higher National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale in those with COVID-19 than those without (mean: 9.7±9.1 versus 6.6±7.4, P<0.001), but patients with AIS without COVID in 2020 had only marginally higher mortality (2020 versus 2016-2019, 6.6% versus 6.3%, P=0.001). Comparing April to December 2020 to 2019, the adjusted risk of in-hospital AIS mortality was most notably increased in Hispanics (2020 versus 2019: 9.2% versus 5.8%, P<0.001) and the lowest quartile of income (2020 versus 2019: 8.0% versus 6.0%, P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In-hospital stroke mortality increased in 2020 in the United States because of comorbid AIS and COVID-19, which had higher stroke severity. The increase in AIS mortality during April-December 2020 was significantly more pronounced in Hispanics and those in the lowest quartile of household income.

Cardiorenal Outcomes Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Oral Anticoagulants

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have progressively replaced vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). DOACs cause fewer bleeding complications, but their other advantages, particularly related to kidney outcomes, remain inconclusive. We studied the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and acute kidney injury (AKI) after DOAC and VKA administration for nonvalvular AF.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Cohort study of Swedish patients enrolled in the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements (SCREAM) project with a diagnosis of nonvalvular AF during 2011-2018.

EXPOSURE

Initiation of DOAC or VKA treatment.

OUTCOME

Primary outcomes were CKD progression (composite of >30% estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline and kidney failure) and AKI (by diagnosis or KDIGO-defined transient creatinine elevations). Secondary outcomes were death, major bleeding, and the composite of stroke and systemic embolism.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Propensity score weighted Cox regression was used to balance 50 baseline confounders. Sensitivity analyses included falsification end points, subgroups, and estimation of per-protocol effects.

RESULTS

We included 32,699 patients (56% initiated DOAC) who were observed for a median of 3.8 years. Their median age was 75 years, 45% were women, and 27% had an eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m². The adjusted HRs for DOAC versus VKA were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.78-0.98) for the risk of CKD progression and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97) for AKI. HRs were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.89) for major bleeding, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.78-1.11) for the composite of stroke and systemic embolism, and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.95-1.14) for death. The results were similar across subgroups of age, sex, and baseline eGFR when restricting to patients at high risk for thromboembolic events and when censoring follow up at treatment discontinuation or change in type of anticoagulation.

LIMITATIONS

Missing information on time in therapeutic range and treatment dosages.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with nonvalvular AF treated in routine clinical practice compared with VKA use, DOAC use was associated with a lower risk of CKD progression, AKI, and major bleeding but a similar risk of the composite of stroke, systemic embolism, or death.

UK prescribing practice of anticoagulants in patients with chronic kidney disease: a nephrology and haematology-based survey

A survey to gain insight into anticoagulant prescribing practice in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD) across the UK was disseminated via renal and haematology networks. Areas of anticoagulant use included patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), requiring thromboprophylaxis for VTE, Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and nephrotic syndrome.An online-survey was disseminated via British Haematology Society, UK Kidney Association, and Renal Pharmacy Group over a five month period. All responses were voluntary and anonymous.Among 117 responses there were 49 nephrology doctors, 47 renal pharmacists and 20 haematology clinicians. A specialist multidisciplinary team to discuss the specific anticoagulant management of these patients was only available to 3% (4/117) respondents. Renal function estimate used for anticoagulant dosing was mainly Cockcroft-Gault for pharmacists and haematology but lab-based estimates were used by nephrology doctors. Therapeutic dose of Low Molecular Weight Heparin was mostly likely to be reduced by one-third when used for VTE treatment, with the majority of units undertaking anti-Xa monitoring in CKD stage 5 and dialysis. Direct-acting Oral Anticoagulants are being used in patients with nephrotic syndrome, those with CKD stage 5 and on dialysis for VTE and AF in the absence of license in these indications.This survey highlighted the significant differences between anticoagulant prescribing in CKD between two professional specialties and marked variation between centres in anticoagulant management strategies employed for these patients. With gaps still existing in the evidence base and answers to these not expected within the next few years, development of a best-practice guideline would be warranted to support clinicians in this field.

The non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation patients with high-normal renal function - A systematic review

Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have revolutionized treatment of atrial fibrillation. Although benefits of anticoagulation therapy are clear, a minority of patients still experience treatment inefficacy or harm. All NOACs have varying degree of renal clearance, which may significantly affect plasma concentrations. Pivotal clinical trials have explored the effects of dose reduction in patients with chronic renal disease. None of these have, however, specifically addressed the need for a dose up-titration in patients with renal hyperfiltration, in whom lower drug plasma levels are to be expected. A signal for lower efficacy in this patient subset has recently emerged. We systematically assessed the peer-reviewed scientific literature on this topic, including a recently reported randomized pharmacokinetic study in renal hyperfiltrators also reporting on ischemic and bleeding events. We conclude that the reduction in NOAC plasma levels in AF patients with renal hyperfiltration is limited in extent and, does not translate into a clinically meaningful reduction in efficacy for NOACs as compared to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in such patients. At the current state of knowledge, NOAC current dosing should not be altered in patients with high-normal renal function.

Anticoagulant Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and Chronic Kidney Disease: Practical Issues

Up to 20% of patients with chronic kidney disease have atrial fibrillation, and 40%-50% of atrial fibrillation patients suffer from chronic kidney disease. The 2 diseases share several risk factors and frequently coincide with each other. Both entities are associ ated with a prothrombotic state, which contributes to increased thromboembolic risk. Atrial fibrillation patients with chronic kidney disease have elevated risk of stroke, major bleeding, and mortality. Clinical risk scores, including CHA2DS2-VASc score, HAS-BLED score, or ORBIT score have a limited value in adverse clinical outcome risk stratification in patients with severe chronic kidney disease. However, the inclusion of renal function in the R(2)-CHA2DS2-VASc score does not improve significantly thromboembolic risk predic tion in atrial fibrillation. There is growing evidence suggesting that biomarkers, including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin, cystatin C, or growth differentiation factor-15, might be helpful in the assessment of thromboembolic, bleeding, and/or mortality risk in atrial fibrillation patients with chronic kidney disease. The first-choice anticoagulant therapy is based on direct oral anticoagulants in this subgroup. The highest risk of adverse events is observed in end-stage renal disease, and in Europe, in contrast to the USA, solely warfarin is recommended in such atrial fibrillation patients. Treatment of atrial fibrillation patients with chronic kidney disease should be closely moni tored with the selection of right anticoagulant agents at the appropriate dose. The current review paper summarizes available evidence and the challenges of the management of atrial fibrillation patients with chronic kidney disease with practical implications.

Comprehensive comparison of stroke risk score performance: a systematic review and meta-analysis among 6 267 728 patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2. Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2, pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS2 demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies.

CONCLUSION

Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA2DS2-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ID CRD4202161247 (PROSPERO).

Chronic Kidney Disease with Mild and Mild to Moderate Reduction in Renal Function and Long-Term Recurrences of Atrial Fibrillation after Pulmonary Vein Cryoballoon Ablation

The aim of this research was to evaluate if patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and mild or mild to moderate depression of renal function have an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrences after cryoballoon (CB) ablation. We performed a retrospective analysis of AF patients undergoing pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) by CB. The cohort was divided according to the KDIGO CKD-EPI classification into a (1) normal, (2) mildly decreased, or (3) mild to moderate reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Freedom from AF recurrences was the primary endpoint. A total of 1971 patients were included (60 ± 10 years, 29.0% females, 73.6% paroxysmal AF) in the study. Acute success and complication rates were 99.2% and 3.7%, respectively, with no significant differences among the three groups. After a follow-up of 24 months, AF recurrences were higher in the mildly and mild to moderate CKD groups compared to the normal kidney function group (23.4% vs. 28.3% vs. 33.5%, p < 0.05). Mild to moderate CKD was an independent predictor of AF recurrences after the blanking period (hazard ratio:1.38, 95% CI 1.02−1.86, p = 0.037). In conclusion, a multicenter analysis of AF patients treated with cryoablation revealed mild to moderate reductions in renal functions were associated with a higher risk of AF recurrences. Conversely, the procedural success and complication rates were similar in patients with normal, mildly reduced, or mild to moderate reduction in eGFR.

The Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project: Fostering improvements in chronic kidney disease care

SCREAM (Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements project) was initiated in 2010 in collaboration with the healthcare provider of Stockholm County healthcare to quantify potential medication errors, estimate the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and to illustrate the value of incorporating measures of kidney function into the medical decision process. Because most patients are unaware of their CKD and diagnoses are seldom issued, SCREAM took advantage of the commonness of serum/plasma creatinine testing, which can be used to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and classify the stage of CKD severity. SCREAM is periodically updated, and at present contains healthcare information of all residents in Stockholm region during 2006-2019 (about 3 million people), enriched with a broad range of laboratory measurements for those in whom creatinine or albuminuria has been measured (about 1.8 million people). This health information was linked with national administrative and quality registries via the unique personal identification number of each Swedish citizen, conforming the richest characterization in Sweden of the population's journey through health and disease. This review discusses the context of its creation, strengths and weakness, key findings and plans for the future. We summarize our findings related to the burden of CKD in Sweden, its adverse health risks (such as risk of infections, cancer or dementia) and how underlying kidney function alters the risk-benefit ratio of common medications. Results have had clinical impact and demonstrate the importance of population-based research in the spectrum of clinical research to improve health.

Person centred care provision and care planning in chronic kidney disease: which outcomes matter? A systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative studies : Care planning in CKD: which outcomes matter?

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Explore priorities related to outcomes and barriers of adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD) regarding person centred care and care planning.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review of qualitative studies.

SEARCH STRATEGY & SOURCES

In July 2018 six bibliographic databases, and reference lists of included articles were searched for qualitative studies that included adults with CKD stages 1-5, not on dialysis or conservative management, without a previous kidney transplantation.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Three independent reviewers extracted and inductively coded data using thematic synthesis. Reporting quality was assessed using the COREQ and the review reported according to PRISMA and ENTREQ statements.

RESULTS

Forty-six studies involving 1493 participants were eligible. The period after diagnosis of CKD is characterized by feelings of uncertainty, social isolation, financial burden, resentment and fear of the unknown. Patients show interest in ways to return to normality and remain in control of their health in order to avoid further deterioration of kidney function. However, necessary information is often unavailable or incomprehensible. Although patients and healthcare professionals share the predominant interest of whether or not dialysis or transplantation is necessary, patients value many more outcomes that are often unrecognized by their healthcare professionals. We identified 4 themes with 6 subthemes that summarize these findings: 'pursuing normality and control' ('pursuing normality'; 'a search for knowledge'); 'prioritizing outcomes' ('reaching kidney failure'; 'experienced health'; 'social life'; 'work and economic productivity'); 'predicting the future'; and 'realising what matters'. Reporting quality was moderate for most included studies.

LIMITATIONS

Exclusion of non-English articles.

CONCLUSIONS

The realisation that patients' priorities do not match those of the healthcare professionals, in combination with the prognostic ambiguity, confirms fatalistic perceptions of not being in control when living with CKD. These insights may contribute to greater understanding of patients' perspectives and a more person-centred approach in healthcare prioritization and care planning within CKD care.

Appraising prediction research: a guide and meta-review on bias and applicability assessment using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST)

Over the past few years, a large number of prediction models have been published, often of poor methodological quality. Seemingly objective and straightforward, prediction models provide a risk estimate for the outcome of interest, usually based on readily available clinical information. Yet, using models of substandard methodological rigour, especially without external validation, may result in incorrect risk estimates and consequently misclassification. To assess and combat bias in prediction research the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was published in 2019. This risk of bias (ROB) tool includes four domains and 20 signalling questions highlighting methodological flaws, and provides guidance in assessing the applicability of the model. In this paper, the PROBAST will be discussed, along with an in‐depth review of two commonly encountered pitfalls in prediction modelling that may induce bias: overfitting and composite endpoints. We illustrate the prevalence of potential bias in prediction models with a meta‐review of 50 systematic reviews that used the PROBAST to appraise their included studies, thus including 1510 different studies on 2104 prediction models. All domains showed an unclear or high ROB; these results were markedly stable over time, highlighting the urgent need for attention on bias in prediction research. This article aims to do just that by providing (1) the clinician with tools to evaluate the (methodological) quality of a clinical prediction model, (2) the researcher working on a review with methods to appraise the included models, and (3) the researcher developing a model with suggestions to improve model quality.

Most published prediction models have limited clinical uptake, are not externally validated and come with methodological issues. The PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASssessment Tool) guides the researcher writing a review, or the clinician interested in a model for risk calculation in a clinical setting. This review examines the aspects of bias in prediction research, and provides information on the prevalence of bias in published models.