Improved Stratification of Autonomic Regulation for risk prediction in post-infarction patients with preserved left ventricular function (ISAR-Risk)

Noninvasive risk assessment and prediction of cardiac outcomes in patients with congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Heart rate turbulence (HRT) and T-wave alternans (TWA), recognized as promising noninvasive markers for ventricular tachyarrhythmias and cardiac death, have been studied predominantly in Western populations, specifically in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) or heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (EF).

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical implications of HRT and TWA in predicting adverse cardiac events, including cardiac death, ventricular tachyarrhythmia, and heart failure-related hospitalization (HFH).

METHODS

The K-REDEFINE study, a prospective, observational, multicenter analysis of 26 tertiary hospitals in South Korea, investigated the prognostic implications of Holter-based variables including HRT and TWA in 1116 patients with acute MI or HF (age 60.8 ± 2.9 years; 76.3% male). All participants underwent 24-hour Holter recording within 6.8 ± 16.5 days after hospitalization. The primary composite outcome included cardiac death, ventricular tachyarrhythmias, and HFH.

RESULTS

During 4.3 ± 1.2 years of follow-up, impaired HRT demonstrated the most powerful predictive value for the composite (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.27-5.13) or individual events: cardiac death (aHR 4.08, 95% CI 2.17-7.70), ventricular tachyarrhythmia (aHR 3.72, 95% CI 1.29-10.77), and HFH (aHR 4.32, 95% CI 2.25-8.28). The predictive power of abnormal HRT remained consistently significant across subgroups of MI and HF, or across varying degrees of EF. When combined with reduced EF (<50%), the predictive power was further enhanced. However, abnormal TWA was significantly associated only with the composite outcome (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.06-2.16).

CONCLUSION

The K-REDEFINE study identified abnormal HRT, mostly assessed within 1 month after hospitalization, as a significant predictor not only for cardiac death and ventricular tachyarrhythmia but also for HFH.

Risk assessment of post-myocardial infarction patients with preserved ejection fraction using 45-min short resting Holter electrocardiographic recordings

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in post-myocardial infarction (post-MI) patients remains a challenging task. Several electrocardiographic noninvasive risk factors (NIRFs) have been associated with adverse outcomes and were used to refine risk assessment. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of NIRFs extracted from 45-min short resting Holter ECG recordings (SHR), in predicting ventricular tachycardia inducibility with programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS) in post-MI patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

METHODS

We studied 99 post-MI ischemia-free patients (mean age: 60.5 ± 9.5 years, 86.9% men) with LVEF ≥40%, at least 40 days after revascularization. All the patients underwent PVS and a high-resolution SHR. The following parameters were evaluated: mean heart rate, ventricular arrhythmias (premature ventricular complexes, couplets, tachycardias), QTc duration, heart rate variability (HRV), deceleration capacity, heart rate turbulence, late potentials, and T-wave alternans.

RESULTS

PVS was positive in 24 patients (24.2%). HRV, assessed by the standard deviation of normal-to-normal R-R intervals (SDNN), was significantly decreased in the positive PVS group (42 ms vs. 51 ms, p = .039). SDNN values <50 ms were also associated with PVS inducibility (OR 3.081, p = .032 in univariate analysis, and 4.588, p = .013 in multivariate analysis). No significant differences were identified for the other NIRFs. The presence of diabetes, history of ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and LVEF <50% were also important predictors of positive PVS.

CONCLUSIONS

HRV assessed from SHR, combined with other noninvasive clinical and echocardiographic variables (diabetes, STEMI history, LVEF), can provide an initial, practical, and rapid screening tool for arrhythmic risk assessment in post-MI patients with preserved LVEF.

Prognostic significance of the Holter-derived T-wave variability in patients with ventricular tachyarrhythmias complicating acute coronary syndrome-TWIST study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the association between ventricular repolarization instability and sustained ventricular tachycardia and ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) occurring within 48 h (acute-phase VT/VF) after the onset of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the prognostic role of repolarization instability and heart rate variability (HRV) after discharge from the hospital.

METHODS

We studied 572 ACS patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction >35%. The ventricular repolarization instability was assessed by the beat-to-beat T-wave amplitude variability (TAV) using high-resolution 24-h Holter ECGs recorded at a median of 11 days from the date of admission. We calculated the HRV parameters including the deceleration capacity (DC) and non-Gaussian index calculated on a 25 s timescale (λ25s). The DC and λ25s were dichotomized based on previous studies' thresholds.

RESULTS

Acute-phase VT/VF developed in 43 (7.5%) patients. In-hospital mortality was significantly higher among VT/VF patients (4.7% vs. 0.9%, p = .03). An adjusted logistic model showed that the maximum TAV (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-1.29, p = .04) was associated with acute-phase VT/VF. During a median follow-up period of 2.1 years, 19 (3.3%) patients had cardiac deaths or resuscitated cardiac arrest. Acute-phase VT/VF (p = .12) and TAV (p = .72) were not significant predictors of survival. An age and sex-adjusted Cox model showed that the DC (p < .01), λ25s (p < .01), and emergency coronary intervention (p < .01) were independent predictors.

CONCLUSION

T-wave amplitude variability was associated with acute-phase VT/VF, but the TAV was not predictive of survival post-discharge. The DC, λ25s, and emergency coronary intervention were independent predictors of survival.

Lithium and zinc levels along with oxidative status in myocardial infarction: A case-control study

Background

Coronary artery disease (CAD) and myocardial infarction (MI) are the most prevalent diseases globally. While several risk factors for MI are well assessed, the influence of trace elements on MI has not been thoroughly studied. This study aimed to evaluate lithium (Li) and zinc (Zn) levels in MI patients and healthy control and assess their relationship with oxidative stress (OS) parameters, such as nitric oxide (NO) and total antioxidant capacity (TAC).

Methods

This case-control study was performed on 182 patients with MI and 83 healthy subjects at Shafa Hospital in Kerman, Iran. MI patients were divided into two groups based on the angiography results: those with coronary artery block above 50 % (CAB >50 %, n = 92) and those with coronary artery block below 50 % (CAB <50 %, n = 90). A flame atomic absorption spectrometer was used to detect Li and Zn levels, and biochemical indices were measured by an autoanalyzer. Also, ferric reducing antioxidant power assay and the Griess method were used to measure the amounts of NO and TAC.

Results

The levels of TAC and Li were significantly higher in the control group than in the patient groups (in both CAB >50 % and CAB <50 % groups). Furthermore, in the CAB <50 % group, TAC and Li levels were significantly higher than in the CAB >50 % group. In the Zn levels evaluation, higher concentration was seen in the CAB >50 % group compared to the CAB <50 % group (P < 0.05). Moreover, Zn and NO levels were significantly higher in both CAB groups compared to controls. In continue, Li levels had a positive association with TAC and ejection fraction percentage (EF%) as well as a negative association with NO levels and Zn levels had a significant positive association with NO and a negative association with TAC. In logistic regression analysis, Li, TAC, and high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol significantly decreased the odds ratio (OR) of MI, whereas Zn, NO, total cholesterol, triglyceride, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) significantly increased the OR of MI. Furthermore, the area under the curve (AUC) analysis indicated that Li had the highest AUC for the diagnosis of CAB >50 % (Li < 167 ng/mL), and Zn ≥ 1810 μg/mL increased disease severity.

Conclusion

Our investigation revealed that Li had a protective effect against CAD by decreasing OS and increasing EF%. However, Zn at concentrations higher than 1810 μg/mL was found to be cytotoxic and increased the risk of MI through increased OS. Taken togather, it could be concluded that Li supplementation may decrease the risk of CAD.

Non-Invasive Risk Assessment and Prediction of Mortality in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Objectives: Heart rate turbulence (HRT) and T-wave alternans (TWA), non-invasive markers of cardiac autonomic dysfunction, and ventricular repolarization abnormality, reportedly, predict the risk of cardiovascular death after myocardial infarction. We investigated whether pre-operative assessment of HRT and/or TWA could predict long-term mortality following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. Methods: From May 2010 to December 2017, patients undergoing elective CABG and receiving 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram monitoring 1 to 5 days prior to CABG surgery were prospectively enrolled. Pre-operative HRT and TWA were measured using a 24 h ambulatory electrocardiogram. The relative risk of cardiac or overall death was assessed according to abnormalities of HRT, TWA, or left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF). Results: During the mean follow-up period of 4.6 ± 3.9 years, 40 adjudicated overall (5.9%/yr) and 5 cardiac deaths (0.9%/yr) occurred in 146 enrolled patients (64.9 ± 9.3 years; 108 males). Patients with abnormal HRT exhibited significantly higher relative risks of cardiac death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 24.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.46-427) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 5.77, 95% CI 2.34-14.2) compared to those with normal HRT. Moreover, abnormal HRT plus abnormal TWA and LV EF < 50% was associated with a greater elevation in cardiac and overall mortality risk. The predictive role of abnormal HRT with/without abnormal TWA for all-cause death was likely more prominent in patients with mildly reduced (35 to 50%) or preserved (≥50%) LV EF. Abnormal HRT plus abnormal TWA and LV EF < 50% showed high negative predictive value in cardiac and overall mortality risk. Conclusions: Assessment of pre-operative HRT and/or TWA predicted mortality risk in patients undergoing elective CABG. Combined analysis of HRT, TWA, and LVEF enhanced the prognostic power. In particular, the predictive value of HRT was enhanced in patients with preserved or mid-range LV EF.

Autonomic nervous system assessment using heart rate variability

The role of the autonomic nervous system in the onset of supraventricular and ventricular arrhythmias is well established. It can be analysed by the spontaneous behaviour of the heart rate with ambulatory ECG recordings, through heart rate variability measurements. Input of heart rate variability parameters into artificial intelligence models to make predictions regarding the detection or forecast of rhythm disorders is becoming routine and neuromodulation techniques are now increasingly used for their treatment. All this warrants a reappraisal of the use of heart rate variability for autonomic nervous system assessment.Measurements performed over long periods such as 24H-variance, total power, deceleration capacity, and turbulence are suitable for estimating the individual basal autonomic status. Spectral measurements performed over short periods provide information on the dynamics of systems that disrupt this basal balance and may be part of the triggers of arrhythmias, as well as premature atrial or ventricular beats. All heart rate variability measurements essentially reflect the modulations of the parasympathetic nervous system which are superimposed on the impulses of the adrenergic system. Although heart rate variability parameters have been shown to be useful for risk stratification in patients with myocardial infarction and patients with heart failure, they are not part of the criteria for prophylactic implantation of an intracardiac defibrillator, because of their high variability and the improved treatment of myocardial infarction. Graphical methods such as Poincaré plots allow quick screening of atrial fibrillation and are set to play an important role in the e-cardiology networks. Although mathematical and computational techniques allow manipulation of the ECG signal to extract information and permit their use in predictive models for individual cardiac risk stratification, their explicability remains difficult and making inferences about the activity of the ANS from these models must remain cautious.

Effects of Metabolic Syndrome on Cardiovascular Outcomes of Psoriatic Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: A Single Center Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Psoriasis is associated with an increased prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, including metabolic syndrome (MetS). To date, it is unclear whether MetS causes differences in cardiovascular outcomes in psoriatic patients with coronary artery disease.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to determine the effects of MetS in psoriatic patients with coronary artery disease. Comparisons were made between patients with and without MetS. Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were used to evaluate the association between variables.

RESULTS

Of the 307 psoriatic patients with coronary artery disease, 94 met criteria (30.6%) for MetS. Individuals with MetS were more likely to be female (p <0.001). Levels of platelet counts and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were higher in the MetS group (p = 0.038 and 0.005, respectively). After a mean follow-up of 35.32 months, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) and non-fatal myocardial infarction were more likely in the MetS than the non-MetS group (33.3% vs 20.6%, p = 0.02; 26.4% vs 15.7%, p = 0.032, respectively). Kaplan-Meier estimates showed the same trend. Cox regression analysis showed that MetS (hazard ratio 1.738; 95% confidence interval 1.045-2.891; p = 0.033) and left ventricular ejection fraction (hazard ratio 0.968; 95% confidence interval 0.945-0.991; p = 0.006) were associated with an increased risk of MACEs.

CONCLUSION

In psoriatic patients with coronary artery disease, MetS independently predicted MACEs. In addition, left ventricular ejection fraction was negatively associated with an increased risk of MACEs. To reduce the cardiovascular disease risk, it is necessary to increase awareness of MetS in psoriatic patients with coronary artery disease.

Heart rate variability: A biomarker of frailty in older adults?

Frailty is a state of critical loss of physiological complexity resulting in greater vulnerability to stressors and has been characterized as a debility syndrome in the older adult. Changes in functional capacity and the cardiovascular system during aging are the most significant and relevant for this population, including the clinically healthy. In this sense, this review aims to investigate methods to monitor the performance of older adults, such as heart rate variability and verify how it can be related to frailty. It contributes to understanding that the changes in heart variability can be a marker for frailty in older adults.

From evidence-based medicine to digital twin technology for predicting ventricular tachycardia in ischaemic cardiomyopathy

Survivors of myocardial infarction are at risk of life-threatening ventricular tachycardias (VTs) later in their lives. Current guidelines for implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) implantation to prevent VT-related sudden cardiac death is solely based on symptoms and left ventricular ejection fraction. Catheter ablation of scar-related VTs is performed following ICD therapy, reducing VTs, painful shocks, anxiety, depression and worsening heart failure. We postulate that better prediction of the occurrence and circuit of VT, will improve identification of patients at risk for VT and boost preventive ablation, reducing mortality and morbidity. For this purpose, multiple time-evolving aspects of the underlying pathophysiology, including the anatomical substrate, triggers and modulators, should be part of VT prediction models. We envision digital twins as a solution combining clinical expertise with three prediction approaches: evidence-based medicine (clinical practice), data-driven models (data science) and mechanistic models (biomedical engineering). This paper aims to create a mutual understanding between experts in the different fields by providing a comprehensive description of the clinical problem and the three approaches in an understandable manner, leveraging future collaborations and technological innovations for clinical decision support. Moreover, it defines open challenges and gains for digital twin solutions and discusses the potential of hybrid modelling.

Deceleration and acceleration capacities of heart rate in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: results of a five-year prospective study

Aim. To study the features of deceleration capacity (DC) and acceleration capacity (AC) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) and assess the correlation of these indicators with known complications and risk factors for sudden cardiac death (SCD).

Material and methods. A total of 50 patients with HCM were examined. Comparable by sex and age, the control group included 50 individuals without cardiovascular diseases. All patients underwent 24-hour electrocardiographic monitoring with the determination of DC and AC. The follow-up period lasted 5 years. Lethal outcomes were recorded in 6%, including SCD — 4%.

Results. Patients with HCM were characterized by significantly lower mean DC — 5,5 [3,7; 7,4] vs 7,8 [7,1; 8,5] ms (p=0,0001) and significantly higher AC– -7,4 [-8,9; -5,8] vs -9,3 [-10,0; -8,6] ms (p=0,001) compared with the control group. In 36% of patients with HCM, pathological values of DC ≤4,5 ms were detected, while in all individuals in the control group, DC corresponded to a favorable prognosis (p=0,001). In patients with and without nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), a decrease in DC was detected in 56% and 25,5% (p=0,043), respectively, while with and without heart failure (HF) — in 78% and 27% (p=0,016), respectively. In patients with HF (p=0,003) and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (p=0,023), mean DC values were significantly lower than in patients without these complications. HF was an independent predictor of DC reduction. DC decrease was not associated with an increase in SCD risk estimated using the HCM Risk-SCD calculator.

Conclusion. Patients with HCM compared with healthy individuals are characterized by lower DC and higher AC values. Among patients with HCM, a decrease in DC is typical for patients with a more severe disease course (HF, AF, NSVT). However, the rationale for using this indicator in SCD risk stratification needs to be clarified.

Altered Heart Rate Turbulence and Variability Parameters Predict 1-Year Mortality in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction

BACKGROUND

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a complex and heterogeneous clinical syndrome. In the absence of effective and potent treatment strategies, the main challenge in HFpEF management remains the availability of strong predictors of unfavourable outcomes. In our study, we sought to evaluate the potential prognostic value of heart rate turbulence (HRT) and variability (HRV) parameters on mortality in ambulatory HFpEF patients.

METHODS

This was a case-control study comparing HRT and HRV parameters in HFpEF survivors vs. non-survivors. Patients from the RESPOND Heart Failure Registry with HFpEF who underwent 24 h ECG monitoring (Holter) were included; HRT parameters (i.e., turbulence onset (TO) and turbulence slope (TS)) and HRV parameters (i.e., standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN)) derived from 24 h Holter ECGs were calculated in patients who died within 12 months, and compared to their age-, gender-, LVEF-, ECHO-, aetiology-, and therapy-matched alive controls.

RESULTS

A total of 22 patients (mean age 80 ± 7 years, 18% female, mean LVEF 57 ± 9%) were included in the final analysis. In deceased patients, values of TO were significantly higher, and values of TS and SDNN were significantly lower as compared to survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

HRT and HRV parameters have the ability to differentiate individuals with HFpEF who are at the greatest risk of unfavourable outcomes. The extent of autonomic disbalance as determined by HRT and HRV could potentially assist in the prognostic assessment and risk stratification of HFpEF patients.

Cardiac Magnetic Resonance and Ventricular Arrhythmia Risk Assessment in Chronic Ischemic Cardiomyopathy: An Unmet Need?

Ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM) constitutes a major public health issue, directly involved in the prevalence and incidence of heart failure, ventricular arrhythmias (VA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Severe impairment of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is considered a high-risk marker for SCD, conditioning the criteria that determine an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) placement in primary prevention according to current clinical guidelines. However, its sensitivity and specificity values for the prediction of SCD in ICM may not be highest. Myocardial characterization using cardiac magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement (CMR-LGE) sequences has made it possible to answer clinically relevant questions that are currently not assessable with LVEF alone. There is growing scientific evidence in favor of the relationship between fibrosis evaluated with CMR and the appearance of VA/SCD in patients with ICM. This evidence should make us contemplate a more realistic clinical value of LVEF in our daily clinical decision-making.

BIOMARKER AND ECHOCARDIOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF HEART FAILURE IN PATIENTS HAVING ACUTE MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION COMBINED WITH DIABETES MELLITUS OF TYPE 2

OBJECTIVE

The aim: To investigate the level of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and to establish its relationship with structural and functional indicators of the myocardium in patients having acute myocardial infarction (AMI), which is complicated by heart failure (HF) with concomitant type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Materials and methods: The study included 120 patients who were grouped by clinical diagnosis. Every patient underwent transthoracic echocardiography of the heart: left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), left ventricular myocardial mass index (LVMI), LV relative wall thickness (LVWT), BNP, HbA1c.

RESULTS

Results: LV EF was statistically significantly lower in group 2 compared with group 1. A significant difference was found. Significant difference between LVWT within indicators of groups 1 and 2 was found. There was a statistically significant increase of the LVMI in group 2 compared to group 1. Against the background of AMI, the formation of eccentric LVH prevailed in 61% cases. There was a statistically significant increase in BNP within the group of patients suffering of AMI with HF and concomitant DM2.

CONCLUSION

Conclusions: There was found a statistically significant increase in BNP in patients suffering of AMI with HF and concomitant DM2, which indicates a significant degree of damage to cardiomyocytes and causes an aggravating course of HF. The relationship between BNP and LV EF was revealed , which can be used to prognostic the severity of HF in this category of patients. A strong correlation between BNP and HbA1 was discovered, which indicates a burdensome unity of metabolic disorders that accelerate the development and progression of HF.

Noninvasive risk factors for the prediction of inducibility on programmed ventricular stimulation in post-myocardial infarction patients with an ejection fraction ≥40% at risk for sudden cardiac arrest: Insights from the PRESERVE-EF study

Background

In the PRESERVE‐EF study, a two‐step sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk stratification approach to detect post‐myocardial infarction (MI) patients with left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥40% at risk for major arrhythmic events (MAEs) was used. Seven noninvasive risk factors (NIRFs) were extracted from a 24‐h ambulatory electrocardiography (AECG) and a 45‐min resting recording. Patients with at least one NIRF present were referred for invasive programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS) and inducible patients received an Implantable Cardioverter ‐ Defibrillator (ICD).

Methods

In the present study, we evaluated the performance of the NIRFs, as they were described in the PRESERVE‐EF study protocol, in predicting a positive PVS. In the PRESERVE‐EF study, 152 out of 575 patients underwent PVS and 41 of them were inducible. For the present analysis, data from these 152 patients were analyzed.

Results

Among the NIRFs examined, the presence of signal averaged ECG‐late potentials (SAECG‐LPs) ≥ 2/3 and non‐sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) ≥1 eposode/24 h cutoff points were important predictors of a positive PVS study, demonstrating in the logistic regression analysis odds ratios 2.285 (p = .027) and 2.867 (p = .006), respectively. A simple risk score based on the above cutoff points in combination with LVEF < 50% presented high sensitivity but low specificity for a positive PVS.

Conclusion

Cutoff points of NSVT ≥ 1 episode/24 h and SAECG‐LPs ≥ 2/3 in combination with a LVEF < 50% were important predictors of inducibility. However, the final decision for an ICD implantation should be based on a positive PVS, which is irreplaceable in risk stratification.

Myocardial strain by cardiac magnetic resonance: A valuable predictor of outcome after infarct revascularization

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prognostic value of left ventricular strains by cardiac magnetic resonance feature tracking (CMR-FT) in patients with re-perfused myocardial infarction (MI).

METHODS

The study enrolled 58 patients with re-vascularized MI who underwent CMR within a week from acute MI. An 18-month follow-up was carried out for the composite endpoint of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). A 3 to 6-month post-MI ejection fraction (EF) was also measured. The predictive value of global longitudinal, circumferential, and radial strains (GLS, GCS, and GRS, respectively) for MACE and the follow-up EF was evaluated.

RESULTS

All the global strains showed significant impairment in MACE positive cases (P < 0.05 for all). On univariate regression, MACE was reversely associated with early post-MI EF (OR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.83-0.98, P: 0.01), and directly associated with GLS (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.03-1.69, P: 0.02), GCS (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.00-1.50, P: 0.04) and EDVI (OR:1.02, 95 %CI: 1.00-1.04, P: 0.01). On multivariate regression model, only the interaction between EF and GLS showed a significant association with MACE (OR[CI95%]: 1.1 [1.06-1.21]). EF < 30% and GLS > -8.9% had the highest sensitivity (78.9% and 89.5%, respectively) and specificity (45.2% and 54.8%, respectively) to predict MACE. The combination of EF < 30% and GLS > -8.9% increased the sensitivity to 94.7%. In addition, the cutoff values of 35.1% for early post-MI EF and -10% for GLS could identify patients with impaired follow-up EF with more than 80% sensitivity and specificity [AUC (CI95%): 0.893(0.76-1.00) for EF and AUC (CI95%):0.836(0.67-1,00) for GLS, P < 0.05 for both)].

CONCLUSIONS

GLS by CMR-FT is a powerful prognosticator of MACE and functional recovery in MI survivors, with incremental value added to early post-MI EF alone.

Reperfused vs. nonreperfused myocardial infarction: when to use which model

There is a lack of understanding in the cardiac remodeling field regarding the use of nonreperfused myocardial infarction (MI) and reperfused MI in animal models of MI. This Perspectives summarizes the consensus of the authors regarding how to select the optimum model for your experiments and is a part of ongoing efforts to establish rigor and reproducibility in cardiac physiology research.

Myocardial Fibrosis as a Predictor of Sudden Death in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease

BACKGROUND

The "gray zone" of myocardial fibrosis (GZF) on cardiovascular magnetic resonance may be a substrate for ventricular arrhythmias (VAs).

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine whether GZF predicts sudden cardiac death (SCD) and VAs (ventricular fibrillation or sustained ventricular tachycardia) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs).

METHODS

In this retrospective study of CAD patients, the presence of myocardial fibrosis on visual assessment (MF_VA) and GZF mass in patients with MF_VA were assessed in relation to SCD and the composite, arrhythmic endpoint of SCD or VAs.

RESULTS

Among 979 patients (mean age [± SD]: 65.8 ± 12.3 years), 29 (2.96%) experienced SCD and 80 (8.17%) met the arrhythmic endpoint over median 5.82 years (interquartile range: 4.1 to 7.3 years). In the whole cohort, MF_VA was strongly associated with SCD (hazard ratio: 10.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.42 to 1,278.9) and the arrhythmic endpoint (hazard ratio: 28.0; 95% CI: 4.07 to 3,525.4). In competing risks analyses, associations between LVEF <35% and SCD (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR]: 2.99; 95% CI: 1.42 to 6.31) and the arrhythmic endpoint (sHR: 4.71; 95% CI: 2.97 to 7.47) were weaker. In competing risk analyses of the MF_VA subcohort (n = 832), GZF using the 3SD method (GZF_3SD) >5.0 g was strongly associated with SCD (sHR: 10.8; 95% CI: 3.74 to 30.9) and the arrhythmic endpoint (sHR: 7.40; 95% CI: 4.29 to 12.8). Associations between LVEF <35% and SCD (sHR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.24 to 5.52) and the arrhythmic endpoint (sHR: 4.14; 95% CI: 2.61 to 6.57) were weaker.

CONCLUSIONS

In CAD patients, MF_VA plus quantified GZF_3SD mass was more strongly associated with SCD and VAs than LVEF. In selecting patients for implantable cardioverter-defibrillators, assessment of MF_VA followed by quantification of GZF_3SD mass may be preferable to LVEF.

Symptomatic Premature Ventricular Contractions in Vasovagal Syncope Patients: Autonomic Modulation and Catheter Ablation

Introduction

There has been limited reports about the comorbid premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) and vasovagal syncope (VVS). Deceleration capacity (DC) was demonstrated to be a quantitative evaluation to assess the cardiac vagal activity. This study sought to report the impact of autonomic modulation on symptomatic PVCs in VVS patients.

Methods and Results

Twenty-six VVS patients with symptomatic idiopathic PVCs were consecutively enrolled. Identification and catheter ablation of left atrial ganglionated plexi (GP) and PVCs were performed in 26 and 20 patients, respectively. Holter 24 h-electrocardiograms were performed before and after the procedure to evaluate DC and PVCs occurrence. Eighteen patients were subtyped as DC-dependent PVCs (D-PVCs) and eight as DC-independent PVCs groups (I-PVCs). In D-PVCs group, circadian rhythm of hourly PVCs was positively correlated with hourly DC (P < 0.05) while there was no correlation in I-PVCs group (P > 0.05). Fifty-three GPs with positive vagal response were successfully elicited (2.0 ± 0.8 per patient). PVCs failed to occur spontaneously nor to be induced in six patients. In the remaining 20 patients, PVCs foci identified were all located in the ventricular outflow tract region. Post-ablation DC decreased significantly from baseline (P < 0.05). During mean follow-up of 10.64 ± 6.84 months, syncope recurred in one patient and PVCs recurred in another. PVCs burden of the six patients in whom neither catheter ablation nor antiarrhythmic drugs were applied demonstrated a significant decrease during follow-up (P = 0.037).

Conclusion

Autonomic activities were involved in the occurrence of symptomatic idiopathic PVCs in some VVS patients. D-PVCs might be facilitated by increased vagal activities. Catheter ablation of GP and PVCs foci may be an effective, safe treatment in patients with concomitant VVS and idiopathic PVCs.

Risk stratification for sudden cardiac death in patients with heart failure : Emerging role of imaging parameters

BACKGROUND

Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction is a common condition that has a poor prognosis. Accurate selection of patients with ischemic heart disease and idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy, who are at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), remains a challenge. In these cases, current indications for implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) rely almost entirely on left ventricular ejection fraction. However, this parameter is insufficient. Recently, noninvasive imaging has provided insight into the mechanism underlying SCD using myocardial deformation on echocardiography and magnetic resonance imaging. The aim of this review article was to underline the emerging role of these novel parameters in identifying high-risk patients.

METHODS

A literature search was carried out for reports published with the following terms: "sudden cardiac death," "heart failure," "noninvasive imaging," "echocardiography," "deformation," "magnetic resonance imaging," and "ventricular arrhythmia." The search was restricted to reports published in English.

RESULTS

The findings of this analysis suggest that cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and strain assessment by echocardiography, particularly longitudinal strain, can be promising techniques for cardiovascular risk stratification in patients with heart failure.

CONCLUSION

In future, risk stratification of arrhythmia and patient selection for ICD placement may rely on a multiparametric approach using combinations of imaging modalities in addition to left ventricular ejection fraction.

Sudden Cardiac Death in Patients with Heart Disease and Preserved Systolic Function: Current Options for Risk Stratification

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of cardiovascular mortality in patients with coronary artery disease without severe systolic dysfunction and in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. From a global health perspective, while risk may be lower, the absolute number of SCDs in patients with left ventricle ejection fraction >35% is higher than in those with severely reduced left ventricle ejection fraction (defined as ≤35%). Despite these observations and the high amount of available data, to date there are no clear recommendations to reduce the sudden cardiac death burden in the population with mid-range or preserved left ventricle ejection fraction. Ongoing improvements in risk stratification based on electrophysiological and imaging techniques point towards a more precise identification of patients who would benefit from ICD implantation, which is still an unmet need in this subset of patients. The aim of this review is to provide a state-of-the-art approach in sudden cardiac death risk stratification of patients with mid-range and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction and one of the following etiologies: ischemic cardiomyopathy, heart failure, atrial fibrillation or myocarditis.

Deceleration capacity for rapid risk stratification in patients suffering from acute ischemic stroke: A prospective exploratory pilot study

Deceleration capacitiy for rapid risk stratification in stroke patientsCerebral ischemia is a major cause of neurologic deficit and patients suffering from ischemic stroke bear a relevant risk of mortality. Identifying stroke patients at high mortality risk is of crucial clinical relevance. Deceleration capacity of heart rate (DC) as a parameter of cardiac autonomic function is an excellent predictor of mortality in myocardial infarction and heart failure patients.The aim of our study was to evaluate whether DC provides prognostic information regarding mortality risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke.From September 2015 to March 2018 we prospectively enrolled consecutive patients presenting at the Stroke Unit of our university hospital with acute ischemic stroke who were in sinus rhythm. In these patients 24 hours-Holter-ECG recordings and evaluation of National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) were performed. DC was calculated according to a previously published algorithm. Primary endpoint was intrahospital mortality.Eight hundred seventy eight stroke patients were included in the study. Intrahospital mortality was 2.8% (25 patients). Both DC and NIHSS were significantly different between non-survivors and survivors (Mean ± SD: DC: 4.1 ± 2.8 ms vs 6.3 ± 3.3 ms, P < .001) (NIHSS: 7.6 ± 7.1 vs 4.3 ± 5.5, P = .02). DC achieved an area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.708 for predicting intrahospital mortality, while the AUC value of NIHSS was 0.641. In a binary logistic regression analysis, DC, NIHSS and age were independent predictors for intrahospital mortality (DC: HR CI 95%: 0.88 (0.79-0.97); P = .01; NIHSS: HR CI 95%: 1.08 (1.02-1.15); P = .01; Age: HR CI 95%: 1.07 (1.02-1.11); P = .004. The combination of NIHSS, age and DC in a prediction model led to a significant improvement of the AUC, which was 0.757 (P < .001, incremental development index [IDI] 95% CI: 0.037 (0.018-0.057)), compared to the individual risk parameters.Our study demonstrated that DC is suitable for both objective and independent risk stratification in patients suffering from ischemic stroke. The application of a prediction model combining NIHSS, age and DC is superior to the single markers in identifying patients at high mortality risk.

Sudden death and its predictors in myocardial infarction survivors in an Indian population

Objective

This study was conducted to assess the incidence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in post myocardial infarction patients and to determine the predictive value of various risk markers in identifying cardiac mortality and SCD.

Methods

Left ventricular function, arrhythmias on Holter and microvolt T wave alternans (MTWA) were assessed in patients with prior myocardial infarction and ejection fraction ≤ 40%. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiac death and resuscitated cardiac arrest during follow up. Secondary outcomes included total mortality and SCD.

Results

Fifty-eight patients were included in the study. Eight patients (15.5%) died during a mean follow-up of 22.3 ± 6.6 months. Seven of them (12.1%) had SCD. Among the various risk markers studied, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 30% (Hazard ratio 5.6, 95% CI 1.39 to 23) and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) in holter (5.7, 95% CI 1.14 to 29) were significantly associated with the primary outcome in multivariate analysis. Other measures, including QRS width, heart rate variability, heart rate turbulence and MTWA showed no association.

Conclusions

Among patients with prior myocardial infarction and reduced left ventricular function, the rate of cardiac death was substantial, with most of these being sudden cardiac death. Both LVEF ≤30% and NSVT were associated with cardiac death whereas only LVEF predicted SCD. Other parameters did not appear useful for prediction of events in these patients. These findings have implications for decision making for the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for primary prevention in these patients.

Arrhythmic risk stratification in post-myocardial infarction patients with preserved ejection fraction: the PRESERVE EF study

Aims

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) annual incidence is 0.6–1% in post-myocardial infarction (MI) patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF)≥40%. No recommendations for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use exist in this population.

Methods and results

We introduced a combined non-invasive/invasive risk stratification approach in post-MI ischaemia-free patients, with LVEF ≥ 40%, in a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. Patients with at least one positive electrocardiographic non-invasive risk factor (NIRF): premature ventricular complexes, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, late potentials, prolonged QTc, increased T-wave alternans, reduced heart rate variability, abnormal deceleration capacity with abnormal turbulence, were referred for programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS), with ICDs offered to those inducible. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of a major arrhythmic event (MAE), namely sustained ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation, appropriate ICD activation or SCD. We screened and included 575 consecutive patients (mean age 57 years, LVEF 50.8%). Of them, 204 (35.5%) had at least one positive NIRF. Forty-one of 152 patients undergoing PVS (27–7.1% of total sample) were inducible. Thirty-seven (90.2%) of them received an ICD. Mean follow-up was 32 months and no SCDs were observed, while 9 ICDs (1.57% of total screened population) were appropriately activated. None patient without NIRFs or with NIRFs but negative PVS met the primary endpoint. The algorithm yielded the following: sensitivity 100%, specificity 93.8%, positive predictive value 22%, and negative predictive value 100%.

Conclusion

The two-step approach of the PRESERVE EF study detects a subpopulation of post-MI patients with preserved LVEF at risk for MAEs that can be effectively addressed with an ICD.

Clinicaltrials.gov identifier

NCT02124018

Arrhythmic risk stratification in heart failure mid-range ejection fraction patients with a non-invasive guiding to programmed ventricular stimulation two-step approach

BACKGROUND

Although some post myocardial infarction (post-MI) and dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) patients with mid-range ejection fraction heart failure (HFmrEF/40%-49%) face an increased risk for arrhythmic sudden cardiac death (SCD), current guidelines do not recommend an implantable cardiac defibrilator (ICD). We risk stratified hospitalized HFmrEF patients for SCD with a combined non-invasive risk factors (NIRFs) guiding to programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS) two-step approach.

METHODS

Forty-eight patients (male = 83%, age = 64 ± 14 years, LVEF = 45 ± 5%, CAD = 69%, DCM = 31%) underwent a NIRFs screening first-step with electrocardiogram (ECG), SAECG, Echocardiography and 24-hour ambulatory ECG (AECG). Thirty-two patients with presence of one of three NIRFs (SAECG ≥ 2 positive criteria for late potentials, ventricular premature beats ≥ 240/24 hours, and non-sustained ventricular tachycardia [VT] episode ≥ 1/24 hours) were further investigated with PVS. Patients were classified as either low risk (Group 1, n = 16, NIRFs-), moderate risk (Group 2, n = 18, NIRFs+/PVS-), and high risk (Group 3, n = 14, NIRFs+/PVS+). All in Group 3 received an ICD.

RESULTS

After 41 ± 18 months, 9 of 48 patients, experienced the major arrhythmic event (MAE) endpoint (clinical VT/fibrillation = 3, appropriate ICD activation = 6). The endpoint occurred more frequently in Group 3 (7/14, 50%) than in Groups 1 and 2 (2/34, 5.8%). Logistic regression model adjusted for PVS, age, and LVEF revealed that PVS was an independent MAE predictor (OR: 21.152, 95% CI: 2.618-170.887, P = .004). Kaplan-Meier curves diverged significantly (log rank, P < .001) while PVS negative predictive value was 94%.

CONCLUSIONS

In hospitalized HFmrEF post-MI and DCM patients, a NIRFs guiding to PVS two-step approach efficiently detected the subgroup at increased risk for MAE.

Combined evaluation of ambulatory-based late potentials and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia to predict arrhythmic events in patients with previous myocardial infarction: A Japanese noninvasive electrocardiographic risk stratification of sudden cardiac death (JANIES) substudy

Background

Noninvasive electrocardiographic (ECG) markers are promising arrhythmic risk stratification tools for identifying sudden cardiac death. However, little is known about the usefulness of noninvasive ECG markers derived from ambulatory ECGs (AECG) in patients with previous myocardial infarction (pMI). We aimed to determine whether the ECG markers derived from AECG can predict serious cardiac events in patients with pMI.

Methods

We prospectively analyzed 104 patients with pMI (88 males, age 66 ± 11 years), evaluating late potentials (LPs), heart rate turbulence, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) derived from AECG. The primary endpoint was the documentation of ventricular fibrillation or sustained ventricular tachycardia.

Results

Eleven patients reached the primary endpoint during a follow‐up period of 25 ± 9.5 months. Of the 104 patients enrolled in this study, LP positive in worst values (w‐LPs) and NSVT were observed in 25 patients, respectively. In the arrhythmic event group, the worst LP values and/or NSVT were found in eight patients (7.6%). The positive predictive and negative predictive values of the combined assessment with w‐LPs and NSVT were 56% and 94%, respectively, for predicting ventricular lethal arrhythmia. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated that the combination of w‐LPs and NSVT had a poorer event‐free period than negative LPs (p < .0001). In the multivariate analysis, the combined assessment of w‐LPs and NSVT was a significant predictor of arrhythmic events (hazard ratio = 14.1, 95% confidence intervals: 3.4–58.9, p < .0001).

Conclusion

Combined evaluation of w‐LPs and NSVT was a powerful risk stratification strategy for predicting arrhythmia that can lead to sudden cardiac death in patients with pMI.

Predictive values of heart rate variability, deceleration and acceleration capacity of heart rate in post-infarction patients with LVEF ≥35

Background and aims

The aim was to investigate the predictive values of heart rate variability, deceleration, and acceleration capacity of heart rate in sudden cardiac death in postinfarction patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≥ 35%.

Methods

We enrolled 138 acute myocardial infarction patients (MI) randomly in sinus rhythm with LVEF ≥ 35% after myocardial infarction. Data on heart rate variability, deceleration runs, deceleration, and acceleration capacity were obtained from 24h‐dynamic electrocardiogram recordings. Clinical characteristics, medications, and echocardiography data were noted. The endpoints were sudden cardiac arrhythmias (SCA), including malignant arrhythmias in the hospital and viewed sudden death out of the hospital. Relationships between autonomic parameters and endpoints were evaluated.

Results

During follow‐up for over 24 months in MI patients, 10 patients occurred sudden cardiac arrhythmias. Subjects with SCA showed lower levels of SDNN (p = .018), TP (p = .007), VLF (p < .001), DC (p < .001), and low‐risk DRs (p < .001) than those without SCA. A low SDNN level (HR: 8.888, p = .006), low VLF level (HR: 14.699, p = .016), low DC level (HR: 4.430, p = .045), and higher risk DRs (HR: 3.81, p = .040) were identified as independent risk factors of SCA for postinfarction patients with LVEF ≥ 35%. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of SDNN, VLF, and DC for identification of SCA were, respectively, 0.724 (p = .019), 0.807 (p < .001), and 0.804 (p = .002). SDNN, VLF, and DC combined assessment area under the ROC curve were 0.828 (p < .001).

Conclusion

Decreased SDNN, VLF, DC, and abnormal DRs are independently associated with increased risks of sudden cardiac arrhythmias in post‐MI patients with LVEF ≥ 35%. Combined SDNN, VLF, and DC may help identify a high‐risk group of malignant arrhythmias in postinfarction patients.

Preprocessing Unevenly Sampled RR Interval Signals to Enhance Estimation of Heart Rate Deceleration and Acceleration Capacities in Discriminating Chronic Heart Failure Patients from Healthy Controls

Objective. The deceleration capacity (DC) and acceleration capacity (AC) of heart rate, which are recently proposed variants to the heart rate variability, are calculated from unevenly sampled RR interval signals using phase-rectified signal averaging. Although uneven sampling of these signals compromises heart rate variability analyses, its effect on DC and AC analyses remains to be addressed. Approach. We assess preprocessing (i.e., interpolation and resampling) of RR interval signals on the diagnostic effect of DC and AC from simulation and clinical data. The simulation analysis synthesizes unevenly sampled RR interval signals with known frequency components to evaluate the preprocessing performance for frequency extraction. The clinical analysis compares the conventional DC and AC calculation with the calculation using preprocessed RR interval signals on 24-hour data acquired from normal subjects and chronic heart failure patients. Main Results. The assessment of frequency components in the RR intervals using wavelet analysis becomes more robust with preprocessing. Moreover, preprocessing improves the diagnostic ability based on DC and AC for chronic heart failure patients, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve increasing from 0.920 to 0.942 for DC and from 0.818 to 0.923 for AC. Significance. Both the simulation and clinical analyses demonstrate that interpolation and resampling of unevenly sampled RR interval signals improve the performance of DC and AC, enabling the discrimination of CHF patients from healthy controls.

The control mechanisms of heart rate dynamics in a new heart rate nonlinear time series model

The control mechanisms and implications of heart rate variability (HRV) under the sympathetic (SNS) and parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) modulation remain poorly understood. Here, we establish the HR model/HRV responder using a nonlinear process derived from Newton's second law in stochastic self-restoring systems through dynamic analysis of physiological properties. We conduct model validation by testing, predictions, simulations, and sensitivity and time-scale analysis. We confirm that the outputs of the HRV responder can be accepted as the real data-generating process. Empirical studies show that the dynamic control mechanism of heart rate is a stable fixed point, rather than a strange attractor or transitions between a fixed point and a limit cycle; HR slope (amplitude) may depend on the ratio of cardiac disturbance or metabolic demand mean (standard deviation) to myocardial electrical resistance (PNS-SNS activity). For example, when metabolic demands remain unchanged, HR amplitude depends on PNS to SNS activity; when autonomic activity remains unchanged, HR amplitude during resting reflects basal metabolism. HR parameter alterations suggest that age-related decreased HRV, ultrareduced HRV in heart failure, and ultraelevated HRV in ST segment alterations refer to age-related decreased basal metabolism, impaired myocardial metabolism, and SNS hyperactivity triggered by myocardial ischemia, respectively.

Arrhythmias in Patients after Surgical Myocardial Revascularization

This work represents literature review data regarding the study of the effect of surgical myocardial revascularization on the processes of electrical myocardial instability underlying the onset of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias, as well as the possibilities for its non-invasive assessment by studying the heart rhythm variability and turbulence. Analyzed data demonstrated that, relying only on the presence of a viable myocardium, it is often impossible to predict the positive effect of revascularization on the prognosis in patients, especially those with reduced myocardial contractility. Considering the well-studied relationship between myocardial remodeling and neurohormonal activation, such non-invasive methods for assessing vegetative regulation of cardiac activity, as heart rate variability and turbulence may provide additional diagnostic information. The literature data indicate that heart failure, ventricular arrhythmias and recurrences of angina and myocardial infarction are the main problems that determine an unfavorable outcome in the postoperative period. There is important evidence that violations of the vegetative regulation of the heart, the heterogeneity of repolarization processes in the myocardium are integral indicators of the morphofunctional changes occurring in the process of coronary heart disease (CHD) progression. The role of indicators of heart rate variability and turbulence as predictors of sudden cardiac death was proved, mainly due to fatal ventricular heart rhythm disorders and cardiovascular mortality. Along with this, changes in these indicators, and their prognostic role in patients with CHD in revascularization are the subject of discussion, which determines the relevance of further studies on the effect of various methods of revascularization on the electrical instability of the myocardium, as one of the most important factors in the development of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias that are predictors of sudden cardiac death, especially in patients who previously had acute myocardial infarction. Besides it is important to study the effect of myocardial revascularization on the indicators of cardiac autonomic regulation and the possibility of their use as prognostic criteria before and after surgery.

Cardiovascular Mortality Can Be Predicted by Heart Rate Turbulence in Hemodialysis Patients

Background

Excess mortality in hemodialysis patients is mostly of cardiovascular origin. We examined the association of heart rate turbulence (HRT), a marker of baroreflex sensitivity, with cardiovascular mortality in hemodialysis patients.

Methods

A population of 290 prevalent hemodialysis patients was followed up for a median of 3 years. HRT categories 0 (both turbulence onset [TO] and slope [TS] normal), 1 (TO or TS abnormal), and 2 (both TO and TS abnormal) were obtained from 24 h Holter recordings. The primary end-point was cardiovascular mortality. Associations of HRT categories with the endpoints were analyzed by multivariable Cox regression models including HRT, age, albumin, and the improved Charlson Comorbidity Index for hemodialysis patients. Multivariable linear regression analysis identified factors associated with TO and TS.

Results

During the follow-up period, 20 patients died from cardiovascular causes. In patients with HRT categories 0, 1 and 2, cardiovascular mortality was 1, 10, and 22%, respectively. HRT category 2 showed the strongest independent association with cardiovascular mortality with a hazard ratio of 19.3 (95% confidence interval: 3.69-92.03; P < 0.001). Age, calcium phosphate product, and smoking status were associated with TO and TS. Diabetes mellitus and diastolic blood pressure were only associated with TS.

Conclusion

Independent of known risk factors, HRT assessment allows identification of hemodialysis patients with low, intermediate, and high risk of cardiovascular mortality. Future prospective studies are needed to translate risk prediction into risk reduction in hemodialysis patients.

Risk Prediction After Myocardial Infarction by Cyclic Variation of Heart Rate, a Surrogate of Sleep-Disordered Breathing Assessed From Holter ECGs

Aims

Sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) is common among cardiac patients, but its role as an independent risk predictor after myocardial infarction (MI) is unclear. SDB causes cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR). The aim of this study was to score Holter ECGs of a large cohort of MI survivors for SDB-related CVHR to investigate its value for mortality prediction.

Methods

A total of 1590 survivors of acute MI in sinus rhythm were prospectively enrolled and followed for 5-year all-cause mortality. Heart rate (HR) tachograms were generated from nocturnal (00:00–06.00 am) segments of Holter ECGs, and the minutes with CVHR were quantified by a previously developed algorithm. According to a pre-specified cutpoint, SDB was assumed if CVHR was present during ≥72 min.

Results

Seventy-seven patients (4.8%) had flat HR tachograms which prohibited analysis for SDB. Of the remaining 1513 patients, 584 (38.6%) were classified as having SDB. Mortality rates in groups stratified according to ECG-derived SDB did not differ significantly. Taken as a continuous variable, low CVHR duration was associated with increased mortality.

The mortality of patients with flat HR tachograms was significantly increased, even after adjustment for age, sex, LVEF, GRACE score and diabetes mellitus. Mortality prediction by a flat HR tachogram was also independent of heart rate variability (HRV), heart rate turbulence (HRT), and deceleration capacity (DC).

Conclusion

In Holter ECG recordings of survivors of acute MI, signs suggestive of SDB were frequently present, but not associated with mortality. A flat nocturnal HR tachogram was a strong, independent predictor of 5-year all-cause mortality.

Temporal changes of noninvasive electrocardiographic risk factors for sudden cardiac death in post-myocardial infarction patients with preserved ejection fraction: Insights from the PRESERVE-EF study

BACKGROUND

Several noninvasive risk factors (NIRFs) have been proposed for sudden cardiac death risk stratification in post-myocardial infarction (post-MI) patients with preserved ejection fraction (EF). However, it remains unclear if these factors change over time.

METHODS

We evaluated seven electrocardiographic NIRFs as they were described in the PRESERVE-EF trial in 80 post-MI patients with EF ≥ 40%, at least 40 days after revascularization and 1 year later.

RESULTS

Mean patient age was 56 ± 10 years, and 88% were men. Mean EF was 50 ± 5%. The prevalence of (a) positive late potentials (27.5% vs. 28.8%, p = .860), (b) >30 premature ventricular complexes/hour (8.8% vs. 11.3%, p = .598), (c) nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (8.8% vs. 5%, p = .349), (d) standard deviation of normal RR intervals <75 ms (3.8% vs. 3.8%, p = 1.000), (e) QTc derived from 24-hr electrocardiography >440 ms (men) or >450 ms (women) (17.5% vs. 17.5%, p = 1.000), (f) deceleration capacity ≤4.5 ms and heart rate turbulence onset ≥0% and slope ≤2.5 ms (2.5% vs. 3.8%. p = 1.000), and (g) ambulatory T-wave alternans ≥65 μV in two Holter channels (6.3% vs. 6.3%, p = 1.000) were similar between the two measurements. However, five patients (6.3%) without any NIRFs during the first assessment had at least one positive NIRF at the second assessment and six patients (7.5%) with at least one NIRF at baseline had no positive NIRFs at 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

While the prevalence of the examined electrocardiographic NIRFs between the two examinations was similar on a population basis, some patients without NIRFs at baseline developed NIRFs at 1 year and vice versa, highlighting the need for risk factor reassessment during follow-up.

Cardiovascular risk assessment by electrocardiographic Holter monitoring in patients with chronic hepatitis C

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular diseases are ranked as the third cause of mortality among people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), but the relationship of infection with cardiovascular risk remains disputable. We have focused on the comprehensive use of parameters obtainable during long-term electrocardiographic (ECG) Holter monitoring.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Heart rate variability and turbulence (HRV and HRT), deceleration/acceleration capacity (DC/AC), corrected QT interval (QTc) and late potential (LP) were used. 36 persons were included, and 30 healthy subjects formed a control group. All were submitted to 24-hour Holter ECG-monitoring.

RESULTS

The studied groups were not statistically significantly different with regards to basic anthropometric parameters. Statistically significantly higher medium and maximum heart rhythm and aminotransferase activities were recorded in patients with hepatitis C. The HRV parameters r-MSSD, p50NN, HF, and absolute DC/AC values were significantly lower in the subjects with hepatitis C than those in the control group. The QTc interval, measured for nocturnal hours, was also significantly longer in that group. There were no differences in the albumin level or basic echocardiographic parameters, including left ventricle ejection fraction. Nor was there any difference in the HRT parameters, or LP. The most interesting observation was the positive correlation among the number of viral RNA copies and DC, and LF.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed the presence of autonomic disorders with prevalence of sympathetic system activity and prolonged QTc interval in patients with chronic hepatitis C. Those parameters significantly correlated with infection intensity. Our results suggest that HCV infection could be an independent cardiovascular risk factor, not associated with the lipid profile. Further prospective studies are needed.

Risk Stratification for Sudden Cardiac Death After Myocardial Infarction

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) accounts for ∼50% of mortality after myocardial infarction (MI). Most SCDs result from ventricular tachyarrhythmias, and the tachycardias that precipitate cardiac arrest result from multiple mechanisms. As a result, it is highly unlikely that any single test will identify all patients at risk for SCD. Current guidelines for use of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) to prevent SCD are based primarily on measurement of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Although reduced LVEF is associated with increased total cardiac mortality after MI, the focus of current guidelines on LVEF omits ∼50% of patients who die suddenly. In addition, there is no evidence of a mechanistic link between reduced LVEF and arrhythmias. Thus, LVEF is neither sensitive nor specific as a tool for post-MI risk stratification. Newer tests to screen for predisposition to ventricular arrhythmias and SCD examine abnormalities of ventricular repolarization, autonomic nervous system function, and electrical heterogeneity. These tests, as well as older methods such as programmed stimulation, the signal-averaged electrocardiogram, and spontaneous ventricular ectopy, do not perform well in patients with LVEF ≤30%. Recent observational studies suggest, however, that these tests may have greater utility in patients with LVEF >30%. Because SCD results from multiple mechanisms, it is likely that combinations of risk factors will prove more precise for risk stratification. Prospective trials that evaluate the performance of risk stratification schema to determine ICD use are necessary for cost-effective reduction of the incidence of SCD after MI.

Risk stratification for cardiac mortality using electrocardiographic markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings: the JANIES-SHD study

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines have stated that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is the gold standard marker for identifying patients at risk for cardiac mortality. However, little information is present regarding electrocardiographic (ECG) markers. This study aimed to assess ECG markers for predicting mortality or serious arrhythmia in patients with structural heart disease (SHD).

METHODS

In total, 1829 patients were enrolled into the Japanese Multicenter Observational Prospective Study (JANIES study). In this study, we analyzed data of 719 patients (569 men, age 64 ± 13 years) with SHD including mainly ischemic heart disease (65.8%). As ECG markers based on 24-hour Holter recordings, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT), ventricular late potentials, and heart rate turbulence (HRT) were assessed. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoint was fatal arrhythmic events.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 21 ± 11 months, all-cause mortality was eventually observed in 39 patients (5.4%). Among those patients, 32 patients (82%) suffered from cardiac causes such as heart failure and arrhythmia. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjustment for age and LVEF, documented NSVT [hazard ratio = 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-5.18, p = 0.02] and abnormal HRT (hazard ratio = 2.40, 95% CI: 1.16-4.93, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with the primary endpoint. These two ECG markers also had significant predictive values with the secondary endpoint. The combined assessment of two ECG markers improved predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that combined assessment of documented NSVT and abnormal HRT based on 24-hour Holter ECG recordings are recommended for predicting future serious events in this population.

Bedside autonomic risk stratification after myocardial infarction by means of short-term deceleration capacity of heart rate

Aims

Twenty-four-hour deceleration capacity (DC24h) of heart rate is a strong predictor of mortality after myocardial infarction (MI). Assessment of DC from short-term recordings (DCst) would be of practical use in everyday clinical practice but its predictive value is unknown. Here, we test the usefulness of DCst for autonomic bedside risk stratification after MI.

Methods and results

We included 908 patients after acute MI enrolled in Munich and 478 patients with acute (n = 232) and chronic MI (n = 246) enrolled in Tuebingen, both in Germany. We assessed DCst from high-resolution resting electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings (<30 min) performed under standardized conditions in supine position. In the Munich cohort, we also assessed DC24h from 24-h Holter recordings. Deceleration capacity was dichotomized at the established cut-off value of ≤ 2.5 ms. Primary endpoint was 3-year mortality. Secondary endpoint was 3-year cardiovascular mortality. In addition to DC, multivariable analyses included the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score >140 and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%. During follow-up, 48 (5.3%) and 48 (10.0%) patients died in the Munich and Tuebingen cohorts, respectively. On multivariable analyses, DCst ≤ 2.5 ms was the strongest predictor of mortality, yielding hazard ratios of 5.04 (2.68-9.49; P < 0.001) and 3.19 (1.70-6.02; P < 0.001) in the Munich and Tuebingen cohorts, respectively. Deceleration capacity assessed from short-term recordings ≤ 2.5 ms was also an independent predictor of cardiovascular mortality in both cohorts. Implementation of DCst ≤ 2.5 ms into the multivariable models led to a significant increase of C-statistics and integrated discrimination improvement score.

Conclusion

Deceleration capacity assessed from short-term recordings is a strong and independent predictor of mortality and cardiovascular mortality after MI, which is complementary to existing risk stratification strategies.

EHRA White Paper: knowledge gaps in arrhythmia management—status 2019

Clinicians accept that there are many unknowns when we make diagnostic and therapeutic decisions. Acceptance of uncertainty is essential for the pursuit of the profession: bedside decisions must often be made on the basis of incomplete evidence. Over the years, physicians sometimes even do not realize anymore which the fundamental gaps in our knowledge are. As clinical scientists, however, we have to halt and consider what we do not know yet, and how we can move forward addressing those unknowns. The European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) believes that scanning the field of arrhythmia / cardiac electrophysiology to identify knowledge gaps which are not yet the subject of organized research, should be undertaken on a regular basis. Such a review (White Paper) should concentrate on research which is feasible, realistic, and clinically relevant, and should not deal with futuristic aspirations. It fits with the EHRA mission that these White Papers should be shared on a global basis in order to foster collaborative and needed research which will ultimately lead to better care for our patients. The present EHRA White Paper summarizes knowledge gaps in the management of atrial fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia/sudden death and heart failure.

Polyscore of Non-invasive Cardiac Risk Factors

Non-invasive risk stratification of cardiac patients has been the subject of numerous studies. Most of these investigations either researched unique risk predictors or compared the predictive power of different predictors. Fewer studies suggested a combination of a small number of non-invasive indices to increase the accuracy of high-risk group selection. To advance non-invasive risk assessment of cardiac patients, we propose a combination score (termed the Polyscore) of seven different cardiac risk stratifiers that predominantly quantify autonomic cardiovascular control and regulation, namely the slope of heart rate turbulence, deceleration capacity of heart rate, non-invasively assessed baroreflex sensitivity, resting respiration frequency, expiration triggered sinus arrhythmia, post-ectopic potentiation of systolic blood pressure, and frequency of supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats. These risk stratification tests have previously been researched and their dichotomies defining abnormal results have been derived from previous reports. The Polyscore combination was defined as the number of positive tests among these seven risk predictors, giving a numerical scale which ranges from 0 (all tests normal) to 7 (all tests abnormal). The Polyscore was tested in a population of 941 contemporarily treated survivors of acute myocardial infarction (median age 61 years, 182 females) of whom 72 (7.65%) died during a 5-year follow-up. In these patients, all the risk predictors combined in the Polyscore were assessed during in-hospital 30-min simultaneous non-invasive recordings of high-frequency orthogonal electrocardiogram, continuous blood pressure and respiration. Compared to Polyscore 0 stratum, the hazard ratios of mortality during follow-up increased almost exponentially in strata 1 through 7 (vs. stratus 0, the hazard ratios were 1.37, 1.96, 7.03, 15.0, 35.7, 48.2, and 114, in strata 1 to 7, respectively; p < 0.0001). This allowed selecting low-risk (Polyscore ≤ 2), intermediate risk (Polyscore 3 or 4) and high-risk (Polyscore ≥ 5) sub-groups of the population that differed greatly in the Kaplan–Meier probabilities of mortality during follow-up. Since the Polyscore was derived from recordings of only 30-min duration, it can be reasonably applied in different clinical situations including population-wide screening. We can therefore conclude that the Polyscore is a reasonable method for cardiac risk stratification that is ready for prospective validation in future independent studies.

Nocturnal respiratory rate as a predictor of mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome

Background

Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are at risk especially in the period shortly after the event. Alterations in respiratory control have been associated with adverse prognosis. The aim of our study was to assess if the nocturnal respiratory rate (NRR) is a predictor of mortality in patients with ACS presenting in the emergency department.

Methods

Clinically stable consecutive patients with ACS aged ≥ 18 years were prospectively enrolled. The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were assessed for all patients. The average NRR over a period of 6  hours was determined by the records of the surveillance monitors in the first night after admission. Primary and secondary endpoints were intrahospital and 2  years all-cause mortality, respectively.

Results

Of the 860 patients with ACS, 21 (2.4%) died within the intrahospital phase and 108 patients (12.6%) died within the subsequent 2 years. The NRR was a significant predictor of both endpoints and was independent from the GRACE score and LVEF. Implementing the NRR into the GRACE risk model leads to a significant increase of the C-statistics especially for prediction of intrahospital mortality.

Conclusion

The NRR is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with ACS.

Risk prediction in post-infarction patients with moderately reduced left ventricular ejection fraction by combined assessment of the sympathetic and vagal cardiac autonomic nervous system

AIM

Most deaths after myocardial infarction (MI) occur in patients with normal or moderately reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF >35%). Periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD) and deceleration capacity (DC) are novel ECG-based markers related to sympathetic and vagal cardiac autonomic nervous system activity. Here, we test the combination of PRD and DC to predict risk in post-infarction patients with LVEF >35%.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 823 survivors of acute MI with LVEF >35%, aged ≤80years and in sinus rhythm. PRD and DC were obtained from 30-min ECG-recordings within the second week after index infarction and dichotomized at established cut-off values of ≥5.75deg² and ≤2.5ms, respectively. Patients were classified as having normal (CAF 0), partly abnormal (DC or PRD abnormal; CAF 1) or abnormal cardiac autonomic function (DC and PRD abnormal; CAF 2). Primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Within the first 5years of follow-up, 51 patients died (6.2%). PRD and DC effectively stratified patients into low-risk (CAF 0; n=562), intermediate-risk (CAF 1; n=193) and high-risk patients (CAF 2; n=68) with cumulative 5-year mortality rates of 2.9%, 9.4% and 25.2%, respectively (p<0.001). On multivariable analyses, CAF was independent from established risk factors (GRACE-score, diabetes mellitus, mean heart rate, heart rate variability). Addition of CAF significantly improved the model (increase of C-statistics from 0.732 (0.651-0.812) to 0.777 (0.703-0.850), p=0.047; continuous NRI (0.400, 95% CI 0.230-0.560, p<0.001); IDI (0.056, 95% CI 0.022-0.122, p<0.001)).

CONCLUSION

CAF identifies new high-risk post-MI patients with LVEF >35% which might benefit from prophylactic strategies.

Left ventricular ejection fraction reassessment post-myocardial infarction: Current clinical practice and determinants of adverse remodeling

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular (LV) dysfunction may be sustained or aggravated during the convalescent months following an acute myocardial infarction (MI) and is difficult to predict. We sought to determine current practice patterns of LV ejection fraction (LVEF) reassessment during the months following MI and evaluate the predictors and clinical significance of LVEF change in a prospective post-MI patient cohort.

METHODS

Patients with an acute MI between June 2010 and August 2014 were identified using the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease registry. Patients with initial LV dysfunction (LVEF <40% with first MI or <45% with multiple MI events) underwent a protocol-driven repeat LVEF assessment in follow-up if routine LVEF reassessment was not performed.

RESULTS

Of 5,964 MI patients, follow-up LVEF assessments were attained for 442 of the 695 patients who had significant LV dysfunction. A sizable proportion (25%) had either no increase or a decline in LVEF. Adverse remodeling was associated with an anterior MI location, a greater peak serum troponin T, and a higher baseline LVEF at time of MI. Adverse LV remodeling conferred a 3-fold risk of death (hazard ratio 3.0, 95% CI 1.6-5.7, P=.001) adjusted for baseline LVEF, anterior MI location, and medication use.

CONCLUSIONS

Current practice of LVEF reassessment during the convalescent months post-MI is suboptimal despite a sizeable proportion of patients that undergo adverse LV remodeling. Targeting processes affecting low rates of LVEF reassessment may reduce missed care opportunities and ensure that patients consistently receive appropriate evidence-based and guideline-recommended care.

Deceleration capacity as a risk predictor in patients presenting to the emergency department with syncope: A prospective exploratory pilot study

Syncope is a common cause for admission to the emergency department (ED). Due to limited clinical resources there is great interest in developing risk stratification tools that allow identifying patients with syncope who are at low risk and can be safely discharged. Deceleration capacity (DC) is a strong risk predictor in postinfarction and heart failure patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether DC provides prognostic information in patients presenting to ED with syncope.We prospectively enrolled 395 patients presenting to the ED due to syncope. Patient's electrocardiogram (ECG) for the calculation of DC was recorded by monitoring devices which were started after admission. Both the modified early warning score (MEWS) and the San Francisco syncope score (SFSS) were determined in every patient. Primary endpoint was mortality after 180 days.Eight patients (2%) died after 180 days. DC was significantly lower in the group of nonsurvivors as compared with survivors (3.1 ± 2.5 ms vs 6.7 ± 2.4 ms; P < .001), whereas the MEWS was comparable in both was comparable in both groups. (2.1 ± 0.8 vs 2.1 ± 1.0; P = .84). The SFSS failed at identifying 4 of 8 nonsurvivors (50%) as high risk patients. No patient with a favorable DC (≥7 ms) died (0.0% vs 3.7%; P = .01, OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.40-0.76), P < .001). In the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis DC yielded an area under the curve of 0.85 (95% CI 0.71-0.98).Our study demonstrates that DC is a predictor of 180-days-mortality in patients admitted to the ED due to syncope. Syncope patients at low risk can be identified by DC and may be discharged safely.

Sex differences in long-term mortality among acute myocardial infarction patients: Results from the ISAR-RISK and ART studies

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates in females who survived acute myocardial infarction (AMI) exceed those in males. Differences between sexes in age, cardiovascular risk factors and revascularization therapy have been proposed as possible reasons.

OBJECTIVE

To select sets of female and male patients comparable in respect of relevant risk factors in order to compare the sex-specific risk in a systematic manner.

METHODS

Data of the ISAR-RISK and ART studies were investigated. Patients were enrolled between 1996 and 2005 and suffered from AMI within 4 weeks prior to enrolment. Patients of each sex were selected with 1:1 equivalent age, previous AMI history, sinus-rhythm presence, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking status, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and revascularization therapy. Survival times were compared between sex groups in the whole study cohort and in the matched cohort.

RESULTS

Of 3840 consecutive AMI survivors, 994 (25.9%) were females and 2846 (74.1%) were males. Females were older and suffered more frequently from hypertension and diabetes mellitus. In the whole cohort, females showed an increased mortality with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.54 compared to males (p<0.0001). The matched cohort comprised 802 patients of each sex and revealed a trend towards poorer survival in females (HR for female sex 1.14; p = 0.359). However, significant mortality differences with a higher risk in matched females was observed during the first year after AMI (HR = 1.61; p = 0.045) but not during the subsequent years.

CONCLUSION

Matched sub-groups of post-AMI patients showed a comparable long-term mortality. However, a female excess mortality remained during first year after AMI and cannot be explained by differences in age, cardiovascular risk factors, and modes of acute treatment. Other causal factors, including clinical as well as psychological and social aspects, need to be considered. Female post-AMI patients should be followed more actively particularly during the first year after AMI.

Sudden cardiac death and pump failure death prediction in chronic heart failure by combining ECG and clinical markers in an integrated risk model

Background

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) and pump failure death (PFD) are common endpoints in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, but prevention strategies are different. Currently used tools to specifically predict these endpoints are limited. We developed risk models to specifically assess SCD and PFD risk in CHF by combining ECG markers and clinical variables.

Methods

The relation of clinical and ECG markers with SCD and PFD risk was assessed in 597 patients enrolled in the MUSIC (MUerte Súbita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study. ECG indices included: turbulence slope (TS), reflecting autonomic dysfunction; T-wave alternans (TWA), reflecting ventricular repolarization instability; and T-peak-to-end restitution (Δα^Tpe) and T-wave morphology restitution (TMR), both reflecting changes in dispersion of repolarization due to heart rate changes. Standard clinical indices were also included.

Results

The indices with the greatest SCD prognostic impact were gender, New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, left ventricular ejection fraction, TWA, Δα^Tpe and TMR. For PFD, the indices were diabetes, NYHA class, Δα^Tpe and TS. Using a model with only clinical variables, the hazard ratios (HRs) for SCD and PFD for patients in the high-risk group (fifth quintile of risk score) with respect to patients in the low-risk group (first and second quintiles of risk score) were both greater than 4. HRs for SCD and PFD increased to 9 and 11 when using a model including only ECG markers, and to 14 and 13, when combining clinical and ECG markers.

Conclusion

The inclusion of ECG markers capturing complementary pro-arrhythmic and pump failure mechanisms into risk models based only on standard clinical variables substantially improves prediction of SCD and PFD in CHF patients.