Infectious disease risk and international tourism demand

Modeling the synergistic interplay between malaria dynamics and economic growth

The mosquito-borne disease (malaria) imposes significant challenges on human health, healthcare systems, and economic growth/productivity in many countries. This study develops and analyzes a model to understand the interplay between malaria dynamics, economic growth, and transient events. It uncovers varied effects of malaria and economic parameters on model outcomes, highlighting the interdependence of the reproduction number (R0) on both malaria and economic factors, and a reciprocal relationship where malaria diminishes economic productivity, while higher economic output is associated with reduced malaria prevalence. This emphasizes the intricate interplay between malaria dynamics and socio-economic factors. The study offers insights into malaria control and underscores the significance of optimizing external aid allocation, especially favoring an even distribution strategy, with the most significant reduction observed in an equal monthly distribution strategy compared to longer distribution intervals. Furthermore, the study shows that controlling malaria in high mosquito biting areas with limited aid, low technology, inadequate treatment, or low economic investment is challenging. The model exhibits a backward bifurcation implying that sustainability of control and mitigation measures is essential even when R0 is slightly less than one. Additionally, there is a parameter regime for which long transients are feasible. Long transients are critical for predicting the behavior of dynamic systems and identifying factors influencing transitions; they reveal reservoirs of infection, vital for disease control. Policy recommendations for effective malaria control from the study include prioritizing sustained control measures, optimizing external aid allocation, and reducing mosquito biting.

The macroeconomic impact of a dengue outbreak: Case studies from Thailand and Brazil

BACKGROUND

Dengue is spreading in (sub)tropical areas, and half of the global population is at risk. The macroeconomic impact of dengue extends beyond healthcare costs. This study evaluated the impact of dengue on gross domestic product (GDP) based on approaches tailored to two dengue-endemic countries, Thailand and Brazil, from the tourism and workforce perspectives, respectively.

FINDINGS

Because the tourism industry is a critical economic sector for Thailand, lost tourism revenues were estimated to analyze the impact of a dengue outbreak. An input-output model estimated that the direct effects (on international tourism) and indirect effects (on suppliers) of dengue on tourism reduced overall GDP by 1.43 billion US dollars (USD) (0.26%) in the outbreak year 2019. The induced effect (reduced employee income/spending) reduced Thailand's GDP by 375 million USD (0.07%). Overall, lost tourism revenues reduced Thailand's GDP by an estimated 1.81 billion USD (0.33%) in 2019 (3% of annual tourism revenue). An inoperability input-output model was used to analyze the effect of workforce absenteeism on GDP due to a dengue outbreak in Brazil. This model calculates the number of lost workdays associated with ambulatory and hospitalized dengue. Input was collected from state-level epidemiological and economic data for 2019. An estimated 22.4 million workdays were lost in the employed population; 39% associated with the informal sector. Lost workdays due to dengue reduced Brazil's GDP by 876 million USD (0.05%).

CONCLUSIONS

The economic costs of dengue outbreaks far surpass the direct medical costs. Dengue reduces overall GDP and inflicts national economic losses. With a high proportion of the population lacking formal employment in both countries and low income being a barrier to seeking care, dengue also poses an equity challenge. A combination of public health measures, like vector control and vaccination, against dengue is recommended to mitigate the broader economic impact of dengue.

A protocol for evaluating the entomological impact of larval source reduction on mosquito vectors at hotel compounds in Zanzibar

There is an increasing awareness of the association between tourism activity and risks of emerging mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) worldwide. In previous studies we showed that hotels in Zanzibar may play an important role in maintaining residual foci of mosquito vectors populations of public health concern. These findings indicated larval sources removal (LSR) interventions may have a significant negative impact on vector communities. However, a thorough analysis of the response vector species to potential LSM strategies must be evaluated prior to implementation of a large-scale area-wide control campaign. Here we propose a protocol for evaluation of the impact of LSR against mosquito vectors at hotel settings in Zanzibar. This protocol is set to determine the efficacy of LSR in a randomized control partial cross-over experimental design with four hotel compounds representing the unit of randomization for allocation of interventions. However, the protocol can be applied to evaluate the impact of LRS in more than four sites. Proposed interventions are active removal of disposed containers, and installation of water dispenser to replace single use discarded plastic water bottles, which were identified as the most important source of mosquitoes studied hotels. The ideal time for allocating intervention to the intervention arms the dry season, when the mosquito abundance is predictably lower. The possible impact of interventions on mosquito occurrence and abundance risks is then evaluated throughout subsequent rainy and dry seasons. If an appreciable reduction in mosquito abundance and occurrence risks is observed during the trial period, intervention could be extended to the control arm to determine whether any potential reduction of mosquito density is reproducible. A rigorous evaluation of the proposed LRS interventions will inspire large scale trials and provide support for evidence-based mosquito management at hotel facilities in Zanzibar and similar settings.

Investigating Awareness Regarding Travel-Related Infectious Disease Prevention in a Metropolitan Area

The rise in international travel has led to an increase in travel-related infectious diseases. It is predicted that by 2030, the number of international travelers will reach 1.8 billion, with over 250 million people affected globally. This issue also has an economic impact, as the eradication of travel-related infectious diseases leads to a loss of USD 12 billion in tourism. To understand the association between demographic variables and knowledge, attitude, and behaviors related to travel-related infectious diseases, a cross-sectional survey-based study was conducted among 1191 individuals in the metropolitan city of Naples, Italy. Multiple linear regression was performed over three models. The results revealed that knowledge about travel-related infectious diseases was positively associated with age, female gender, non-smoking habits, being single, and higher education attainment. The attitude towards travel-related infectious diseases was positively associated with being female, non-smoking habits, being single, higher education attainment, and a higher level of knowledge. A statistically significant association was observed between behaviors and non-smoking habits and between higher levels of knowledge and attitudes. To address this issue, public health programs could be implemented to improve behaviors in the general population. Overall, this study provides valuable information about the determinants of knowledge, attitude, and behaviors related to travel-related infectious diseases in the general population.

Negative health impact of tourists through pandemic: hospitality sector perspective

Although the impact of tourism development on residents has received a lot of attention in the literature, the health impact of tourism has not been sufficiently addressed. Due to outbreaks of COVID-19, the importance of recognition of the negative health impact of tourism is relevant. Thus, the present study aims to identify the health impact of tourism through COVID-19 outbreaks considering residents' perspectives. In the current research, we gathered data from semi-structured interviews conducted from 10th August to 30 August 2020 to investigate community perception regarding the negative health impact of tourism through the COVID-19 era. We conducted 30 interviews with some Iranian residents. Data is analyzed by thematic analysis via MAXQDA software. Residents perceived negative health impacts through COVID-19 outbreaks as containing three subthemes including general negative impacts, direct negative impacts, and indirect negative impacts. The results also show that residents use two coping strategies to face these negative health impacts, namely negative coping strategies and positive coping strategies. Perceived negative health impacts, and residents' coping strategies are two major themes regarding Iranian residents' perception toward tourism negative health impacts through COVID-19 outbreaks.

Towards an Evolved Immersive Experience: Exploring 5G- and Beyond-Enabled Ultra-Low-Latency Communications for Augmented and Virtual Reality

Augmented reality and virtual reality technologies are witnessing an evolutionary change in the 5G and Beyond (5GB) network due to their promising ability to enable an immersive and interactive environment by coupling the virtual world with the real one. However, the requirement of low-latency connectivity, which is defined as the end-to-end delay between the action and the reaction, is very crucial to leverage these technologies for a high-quality immersive experience. This paper provides a comprehensive survey and detailed insight into various advantageous approaches from the hardware and software perspectives, as well as the integration of 5G technology, towards 5GB, in enabling a low-latency environment for AR and VR applications. The contribution of 5GB systems as an outcome of several cutting-edge technologies, such as massive multiple-input, multiple-output (mMIMO) and millimeter wave (mmWave), along with the utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques towards an ultra-low-latency communication system, is also discussed in this paper. The potential of using a visible-light communications (VLC)-guided beam through a learning algorithm for a futuristic, evolved immersive experience of augmented and virtual reality with the ultra-low-latency transmission of multi-sensory tracking information with an optimal scheduling policy is discussed in this paper.

Identification of B and T Cell Epitopes to Design an Epitope-Based Peptide Vaccine against the Cell Surface Binding Protein of Monkeypox Virus: An Immunoinformatics Study

Background

Although the monkeypox virus-associated illness was previously confined to Africa, recently, it has started to spread across the globe and become a significant threat to human lives. Hence, this study was designed to identify the B and T cell epitopes and develop an epitope-based peptide vaccine against this virus's cell surface binding protein through an in silico approach to combat monkeypox-associated diseases.

Results

The analysis revealed that the cell surface binding protein of the monkeypox virus contains 30 B cell and 19 T cell epitopes within the given parameter. Among the T cell epitopes, epitope "ILFLMSQRY" was found to be one of the most potential peptide vaccine candidates. The docking analysis revealed an excellent binding affinity of this epitope with the human receptor HLA-B^∗15:01 with a very low binding energy (-7.5 kcal/mol).

Conclusion

The outcome of this research will aid the development of a T cell epitope-based peptide vaccine, and the discovered B and T cell epitopes will facilitate the creation of other epitope and multi-epitope-based vaccines in the future. This research will also serve as a basis for further in vitro and in vivo analysis to develop a vaccine that is effective against the monkeypox virus.

Interpretable tourism volume forecasting with multivariate time series under the impact of COVID-19

This study proposes a novel interpretable framework to forecast the daily tourism volume of Jiuzhaigou Valley, Huangshan Mountain, and Siguniang Mountain in China under the impact of COVID-19 by using multivariate time-series data, particularly historical tourism volume data, COVID-19 data, the Baidu index, and weather data. For the first time, epidemic-related search engine data is introduced for tourism demand forecasting. A new method named the composition leading search index-variational mode decomposition is proposed to process search engine data. Meanwhile, to overcome the problem of insufficient interpretability of existing tourism demand forecasting, a new model of DE-TFT interpretable tourism demand forecasting is proposed in this study, in which the hyperparameters of temporal fusion transformers (TFT) are optimized intelligently and efficiently based on the differential evolution algorithm. TFT is an attention-based deep learning model that combines high-performance forecasting with interpretable analysis of temporal dynamics, displaying excellent performance in forecasting research. The TFT model produces an interpretable tourism demand forecast output, including the importance ranking of different input variables and attention analysis at different time steps. Besides, the validity of the proposed forecasting framework is verified based on three cases. Interpretable experimental results show that the epidemic-related search engine data can well reflect the concerns of tourists about tourism during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Assessing protected area vulnerability to climate change in a case study of South African national parks

Climate change is challenging the ability of protected areas (PAs) to meet their objectives. To improve PA planning, we developed a framework for assessing PA vulnerability to climate change based on consideration of potential climate change impacts on species and their habitats and resource use. Furthermore, the capacity of PAs to adapt to these climate threats was determined through assessment of PA management effectiveness, adjacent land use, and financial resilience. Users reach a PA-specific vulnerability score and rank based on scoring of these categories. We applied the framework to South Africa's 19 national parks. Because the 19 parks are managed as a national network, we explored how resources might be best allocated to address climate change. Each park's importance to the network's biodiversity conservation and revenue generation was estimated and used to weight overall vulnerability scores and ranks. Park vulnerability profiles showed distinct combinations of potential impacts of climate change and adaptive capacities; the former had a greater influence on vulnerability. Mapungubwe National Park emerged as the most vulnerable to climate change, despite its relatively high adaptive capacity, largely owing to large projected changes in species and resource use. Table Mountain National Park scored the lowest in overall vulnerability. Climate change vulnerability rankings differed markedly once importance weightings were applied; Kruger National Park was the most vulnerable under both importance scenarios. Climate change vulnerability assessment is fundamental to effective adaptation planning. Our PA assessment tool is the only tool that quantifies PA vulnerability to climate change in a comparative index. It may be used in data-rich and data-poor contexts to prioritize resource allocation across PA networks and can be applied from local to global scales.

Tourism at the Crossroads between Well-Being, Public Health and the Environment: Panel Data Evidence from the European Union

The recent pandemic crisis led to a drop in tourism, and it highlighted the connection between tourism, healthcare, environmental concerns and well-being. In this context, the purpose of the research is to clarify the relationship between tourism, happiness, healthcare and environmental expenditure. Statistical data provided by the World Bank, Eurostat and the World Happiness Database from the EU27 countries, from 2000 to 2019, were used. In order to investigate the relationship between these indicators, the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was used. In the long run, happiness and environmental and healthcare expenditure have a statistically significant and positive impact on tourism arrivals and receipts. It follows that a 1% increase in happiness supports between 4% and 9% of international tourism, while a 1% increase in environmental expenditure supports an increase of 2% in international tourism. Additionally, there is a significant interaction between happiness and either environmental or healthcare expenditure in the long run. This means that increasing happiness diminishes the effect of the later on tourism arrivals and receipts. No short-term relationship was identified between arrivals and any of the above-mentioned variables. In the same context, healthcare expenditure has a negative short-term effect on tourism receipts. The research contributes to the literature by suggesting that increasing national happiness, healthcare and environmental expenditure has a beneficial spillover effect on tourism arrivals and receipts in the long run.

The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on ecotourism, a study from West of Iran

Most tourism researchers agree on the effects of the COVID-19 on ecotourism. The present study aims to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ecotourism status in Lorestan province in Iran. To this aim, 29 effects were identified using Delphi technique. According to results, the effects were divided into six categories including the decreased number of incoming tourists, the reduced activity of hotels and resorts, the declined income of goods and service suppliers for tourists, the decreased activity of travel agencies and tourist tours, as well as positive and negative environmental effects. Generally, the results provide new knowledge in the field of ecotourism crisis management. In addition, the identified effects provide the basis for further research on the method of reducing the negative effects.

You Only Live Once! Understanding Indonesian and Taiwan Travel Intention During COVID-19 Pandemic

Indonesia and Taiwan are two countries that have been affected by the tourism sector, although with different policies to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Taiwan is known as a country with pandemic policies that have been recognized around the world, although it has a high vulnerability to experiencing a high number of infections due to its geographical and political position close to the source of the pandemic. On the other hand, Indonesia is known for its controversial pandemic management and control policies. Indonesia and Taiwan have carried out various public policies to increase tourism activities during the pandemic, such as accelerating vaccination in tourist areas and for tourists, as well as various other stimuli to stimulate tourism. The debate over vaccination raises questions about attitudes toward vaccines in society. The lack of clarity on psychosocial and political conditions creates confusion among the public in perceiving the COVID-19 pandemic and in perceiving the risks of traveling. This can affect people's attitudes toward vaccines, travel anxiety, and travel intentions. This study aims to analyze traveling intention due to the COVID-19 pandemic through COVID-19 Risk Perception, Fear of COVID-19, Risk Perception to Travel, Vaccine Attitude, and Fear to Travel. The research in Indonesia involved 358 respondents while the research in Taiwan involved 283 respondents. The research analysis used multiple regression and simple linear regression to ascertain the role of each association. The results showed that the travel intention of Indonesian tourists was formed from the direct and indirect roles of covid 19 risk perception, fear of covid 19, risk perception to travel, vaccine attitude, and fear to travel. Meanwhile, the travel intention of Taiwanese tourists is not influenced by a fear of covid. The travel intention model of Taiwanese tourists is formed from the direct and indirect roles of covid 19 risk perception, risk perception to travel, vaccine attitude, and fear to travel. This research contributes to tourism risk management in the face of pandemics, particularly in terms of government policies that can reduce tourism anxiety to travel during disasters.

Dynamics of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence and vaccination

A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with vaccination is discussed. A new stochastic threshold $ R_0^s $ is determined. When the noise is very low ($ R_0^s < 1 $), the disease becomes extinct, and if $ R_0^s > 1 $, the disease persists. Furthermore, we show that the solution of the stochastic model oscillates around the endemic equilibrium point and the intensity of the fluctuation is proportional to the intensity of the white noise. Computer simulations are used to support our findings.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on tourism geographies of Bangladesh: study on Sylhet region

This qualitative study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism geographies of Sylhet region in Bangladesh developing analytical linkages between pandemic and tourism geography. On the basis of in-depth interviews, the study explores micro effects on diverse actors involved in the tourism process of Sylhet division. As one of the emerging tourism hubs, why Sylhet region demands special treatment from local, national and international authorities and policymakers to mitigate the adverse effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, has been investigated in this paper. However, the central argument of the study is that the COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the demand and supply chains, local businesses, transportations, hotels and restaurants, tea industry, corporations, and local professional lives due to the imposed restrictions on human mobility, causing a sharp decline in socio-economic activities of Sylhet's tourism geographies.

Sail Away to a Safe Harbor? COVID-19 Vaccinations and the Volatility of Travel and Leisure Companies

This paper examines the impact of vaccination programs on the stock market volatility of the travel and leisure sector. Using daily data from 56 countries over the period from January 2020 to March 2021, we find that vaccination leads to a decrease in the investment risk of travel and leisure companies. Vaccination results in a decrease in the volatility of stock prices of travel and leisure companies. The drop in volatility is robust to many alternative estimation techniques, different volatility measures, and various proxies for vaccinations. Moreover, this effect cannot be explained by an array of control variables; this includes the pandemic itself and both the containment and closure policies that followed. Furthermore, the beneficial role of vaccinations is relatively stronger in emerging markets than in developed ones.

The COVID-19 pandemic and domestic travel subsidies

The spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has significantly reduced tourism demands worldwide. Employing weekly data on tourist flows between Japanese prefectures, we examine the cost-effectiveness of domestic travel subsidies. Our results provide two implications for the literature. First, we identify the underlying mechanism of tourist flows during the pandemic. In contrast to infectious diseases that have only local effects, the COVID-19 pandemic has decreased tourism demand not only to, but also from, severely affected regions, deteriorating tourism businesses even in areas not severely affected by the disease. Second, we confirm the effectiveness of a price-discount strategy in mitigating economic damage to the accommodation sector caused by the pandemic.

Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

This paper develops an augmented gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by infectious disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10% increase in the number of confirmed cases leads, on average, to a reduction of 4.7% in international tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

The impact of COVID-19 on European tourists' attitudes to air travel and the consequences for tourist destination evoked set formation

We study how risk conditions derived from the COVID-19 pandemic may impact on both the desire to travel and intention to visit of tourists and, therefore, on different stages of the destination choice process. We analyse 5134 million flight searches and 379 million flight picks during 2020 for the 17 largest European tourism source markets. An unweighted index number is employed to measure the average variation for searches and picks, for the year 2020, in relation to the reference base period (year 2019). This is done for air travel in general and to Spain specifically. The study then proceeds to conduct an analysis of 17 international travel destinations that are in the evoked sets of the two largest outbound markets in Europe (Germany and UK). We also identify which markets are most favourable to Spain. The research design can inform cost-efficient marketing decisions in a situation of high uncertainty.

COVID-19-related government interventions and travel and leisure stock

COVID-19-related government interventions have significantly affected tourism, while the impact of government interventions on the tourism financial market remains essentially unexplored. This paper comprehensively evaluates how COVID-19-related government interventions affected the travel and leisure stock markets based on a panel quantile regression model. Three government interventions (stringency index, containment and health index and economic support index) and two important stock market features (return and volatility) are discussed. The results reveal that the three government interventions are beneficial to the travel and leisure stock market, especially when the market is under adverse conditions. Specifically, containment and health measures lead to an increase in stock returns. Stringency measures and economic support measures promote stock return and restrain stock market volatility. This study provides significant insights for protecting and recovering the travel and leisure stock market by considering when and which government interventions should be implemented.

COVID-19 and the aviation industry: The interrelationship between the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the frequency of flights on the EU market

This study aims to investigate the contribution of aviation related travel restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 in Europe by using quasi-experiment approaches including the regression discontinuity design and a two-stage spatial Durbin model with an instrumental variable. The study provides concrete evidence that the severe curtailing of flights had a spontaneous impact in controlling the spread of COVID-19. The counterfactual analysis encapsulated the spillover effects deduced that a 1% decrease in flight frequency can decrease the number of confirmed cases by 0.908%. The study also reveals that during the lockdown, the aviation industry cancelled over 795,000 flights, which resulted in averting an additional six million people being from being infected and saving 101,309 lives.

Developing a Conceptual Model for the Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Changing Tourism Risk Perception

The global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has tremendously reshaped the tourism industry and destinations worldwide. Tourism destinations and the travel market require empirical research to support their post-pandemic strategies, especially in relation to the influences of changing perceptions of tourism risks, experience, and behavioural intention. This paper aims to propose a conceptual model and its hypotheses of the perceived tourism risks of natural and man-made disasters to explain the associations between the expected travel experience and ultimate travel behaviour. This paper provides a foundation for further empirical study based on a literature review and discussion. Several areas of theoretical development are identified for immediate research: (1) comparison of self-interpretation and understanding of multi-dimensional tourism risks of natural and man-made complexity in epidemics across a great variety of geographical and geo-political territories; (2) a complex web of influence to changing safety concerns and risk perception by information dissemination; (3) the effect of destination selection or hesitation in travel intention caused by changing destination image; and (4) local perception of the epidemic and health crisis. Destination authorities are recommended to (1) strengthen the preparedness and emergency responses of an effective disaster management process, (2) maintain the emotional solidarity of both tourists and local residents, and (3) mitigate multiple dimensions of the perceived risks, mainly associated with the health and psychological risks of those affected.

The impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hotels' value compared to previous diseases: the role of ALFO strategy

By using the Event Study Method (ESM), this paper aims to examine the effect of new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the market performance of the hotel industry in the U.S. We also compare the impact of COVID-19 outbreak with three previous diseases outbreaks. The results show that there is a negative influence of the diseases outbreaks on stock returns of hotels in the U.S. However, the impact of COVID-19 is incomparably higher in magnitude compared to previous diseases. Furthermore, given the importance of following flexible corporate strategies to adapt to new and unpredicted situations, it is found that the ALFO (assets-light, fee-orientated) strategy acts as a mitigator for the predicted market value drop due to the pandemic.

How to survive a pandemic: The corporate resiliency of travel and leisure companies to the COVID-19 outbreak

What protects travel and leisure companies from a global pandemic, such as COVID-19? To answer this question, we investigate data on over 1200 travel and leisure companies in 52 countries. We consider 80 characteristics, such as company financial ratios, macroeconomic variables, and government policy responses. Using regressions and machine learning tools, we demonstrate that firms with low valuations, limited leverage, and high investments have been more immune to the pandemic-induced crash. We also find a beneficial effect of stringent containment and closure policies. Finally, our results indicate that countries with less individualism may be better positioned to cope with the pandemic. Our findings have implications for regulatory bodies, managers, and investors concerning future pandemic outbreaks.

Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

COVID-19 impact on the hospitality industry: Exploratory study of financial-slack-driven risk preparedness

The hospitality industry is regarded as one of the most affected by the consequences of COVID-19 pandemic, and the undefined persistence of the pandemic duration raises anxiety about the ability to recover from this dramatic situation. In this regard, the purpose of this exploratory study is to shed light on the COVID-19 risk preparedness of hospitality businesses, as driven by the financial slack holdings and persistence. The empirical findings confirm that their financial-slack-driven risk preparedness should be judged as relatively low. A majority of the examined hospitality businesses demonstrated low or insufficient financial slack holdings and recently have consumed their financial slack resources. Thus, the abilities of hospitality businesses to sustain the liquidity tensions that emerged after the COVID-19 outbreak are questionable. Facing this evidence, we draw conclusions about the necessary design of system interventions that could prevent bankruptcy in the hospitality industry.

Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) against Aedes Species Mosquitoes: A Roadmap and Good Practice Framework for Designing, Implementing and Evaluating Pilot Field Trials

Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti are invasive mosquito species that impose a substantial risk to human health. To control the abundance and spread of these arboviral pathogen vectors, the sterile insect technique (SIT) is emerging as a powerful complement to most commonly-used approaches, in part, because this technique is ecologically benign, specific, and non-persistent in the environment if releases are stopped. Because SIT and other similar vector control strategies are becoming of increasing interest to many countries, we offer here a pragmatic and accessible 'roadmap' for the pre-pilot and pilot phases to guide any interested party. This will support stakeholders, non-specialist scientists, implementers, and decision-makers. Applying these concepts will ensure, given adequate resources, a sound basis for local field trialing and for developing experience with the technique in readiness for potential operational deployment. This synthesis is based on the available literature, in addition to the experience and current knowledge of the expert contributing authors in this field. We describe a typical path to successful pilot testing, with the four concurrent development streams of Laboratory, Field, Stakeholder Relations, and the Business and Compliance Case. We provide a graphic framework with criteria that must be met in order to proceed.

How the COVID-19 pandemic affected hotel Employee stress: Employee perceptions of occupational stressors and their consequences

This study sought to examine the impacts of the global coronavirus pandemic on hotel employees' perceptions of occupational stressors and their consequences. Paired t-tests and structural equation modeling were applied to examine the responses of 758 hotel employees in the United States. The findings showed that occupational stressors after the outbreak of the pandemic consisted of three domains: traditional hotel-work stressors, unstable and more demanding hotel-work-environment stressors, and unethical hotel-labor-practices-borne stressors. The impacts of these stressors differed from the hypothesis that traditional hotel-work stressors positively affect job satisfaction and organizational commitment. The findings showed that job satisfaction and organizational commitment significantly explained job performance, subjective well-being, and prosocial behavior, but they did not significantly influence turnover intention. Hotel employees' pre-pandemic perceptions of occupational stressors and their consequences also differed significantly from their perceptions after the pandemic had broken out.

Do pandemics have an asymmetric effect on tourism in Italy?

In this study, the asymmetric Granger causality relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty index is examined by controlling inflation, consumer confidence index, and industrial production for the period 2000M1 and 2020M1 in Italy. To the best of our knowledge, the current study is one of the few studies to investigate the relationship between tourist arrivals and world pandemic uncertainty in an asymmetric framework. The empirical results show that using the Granger causality test in a linear framework causes bias results due to misspecification. Therefore, the study relies on asymmetric Granger causality test results which reveal that the positive shock of world pandemic uncertainty Granger causes a negative shock of tourist arrivals. It is suggested that international tourist arrivals are sensitive to external shocks such as pandemics and in such instances the government of the concerned country can insulate the tourism-service and hospitality industry against the shocks by developing strategies to promote full information between all stakeholders.

The Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak on the Accommodation Selection of Azorean Tourists. A Study Based on the Assessment of the Azores Population’s Attitudes

Tourists’ intentions show many changing dynamics, both in terms of destination and accommodation selection. These changes in dynamics are seasonal and significantly affected by trends. Therefore, after an infectious disease outbreak, as is the case with COVID-19 caused by a new coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, these dynamics change on an entirely different level and are so far unknown. Contextual research was conducted to define and analyze the impacts of SARS-CoV-2 on Azores residents’ tourism accommodations plans in 2020 by examining their intentions. The most frequent choice was to spend 2020 vacations at the vacation residences of family or friends (24.3%), followed by approximately 20% who chose three- to four-star hotels. A considerable increase in rural tourism accommodation selection intentions was noticed, obtaining the third position with 13.7%, followed by local accommodation (guest house) with 12.1% of the selection intentions. The study concludes that there are massive consequences of the SARS-CoV-2 crisis at the level of holiday choices and social isolation concerns for this ultra-peripheral territory.

The Impacts of COVID-19 Crisis over the Tourism Expectations of the Azores Archipelago Residents

Throughout history, times of crisis have always been preceded by periods of change. In fact, the current moment of health, economic, and social crisis that we are experiencing seems to be no exception. Tourism seems to be one of the most affected activities by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis—due not only the cancelled flights but also to the fear of being infected with the virus. In this sense, the present article intends to identify the Azores Archipelago residents’ tourism expectations during the COVID-19 crisis. Using the Azores Islands as a case study and merging it with the authors’ knowledge about this regional reality, it was possible to collect a substantial quantity of data. Thus, this study provides an in-depth perception of the main issues about how this pandemic crisis affects the tourism expectations of the Azores region residents, and consequently, how this situation will influence regional sustainable development. Through the study, it was possible to verify that the significant part of the Azores Archipelago residents (57.5%) will not be going to travel to spend vacations in 2020. Additionally, 84.2% will have holidays in the region; therefore, they stay in the Azores Archipelago. Besides, this study shows that majority of the respondents (61.6%) would not make a reservation for a 2020 vacation.

How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence

•We examine how pandemics affects tourist arrivals.•The paper is the first to use newly developed "Discussion about Pandemics Index".•We find that pandemic decreases tourist arrivals.•This effect exists only for low-income economies.

The effects of natural disasters on international tourism: A global analysis

Tourism is shaped by a wide range of factors and forces, including exogenous ones that have no direct link with the tourism sector. Natural disasters and unexpected events are prime examples of such determining factors, as they have profound effects on individuals and society, and as a result have the potential to affect tourism flows considerably. Several theoretical arguments exist why natural disasters and unexpected events could influence tourist destination choices. However, empirical research to confirm the nature and extent of impacts of disasters on tourism is lacking. To address this gap, this paper incorporates a dataset on natural and man-made disaster events into a model of international tourism flows to evaluate the effect of different types of disasters on international arrivals at the national level. Findings provide evidence that the occurrence of different types of event change tourist flows to varying degrees. Although in some cases a positive effect is estimated, in general the impacts are negative, resulting in reduced tourist arrivals following an event. Understanding the relationship between disaster events and tourism is helpful for destination managers who make critical decisions in relation to recovery, reconstruction and marketing.

The macroecology of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Anthropocene

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has expanded rapidly throughout the world. Thus, it is important to understand how global factors linked with the functioning of the Anthropocene are responsible for the COVID-19 outbreak. We tested hypotheses that the number of COVID-19 cases, number of deaths and growth rate of recorded infections: (1) are positively associated with population density as well as (2) proportion of the human population living in urban areas as a proxies of interpersonal contact rate, (3) age of the population in a given country as an indication of that population's susceptibility to COVID-19; (4) net migration rate and (5) number of tourists as proxies of infection pressure, and negatively associated with (5) gross domestic product which is a proxy of health care quality. Data at the country level were compiled from publicly available databases and analysed with gradient boosting regression trees after controlling for confounding factors (e.g. geographic location). We found a positive association between the number of COVID-19 cases in a given country and gross domestic product, number of tourists, and geographic longitude. The number of deaths was positively associated with gross domestic product, number of tourists in a country, and geographic longitude. The effects of gross domestic product and number of tourists were non-linear, with clear thresholds above which the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths increased rapidly. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was positively linked to the number of tourists and gross domestic product. The growth rate of COVID-19 cases was negatively associated with the mean age of the population and geographic longitude. Growth was slower in less urbanised countries. This study demonstrates that the characteristics of the human population and high mobility, but not population density, may help explain the global spread of the virus. In addition, geography, possibly via climate, may play a role in the pandemic. The unexpected positive and strong association between gross domestic product and number of cases, deaths, and growth rate suggests that COVID-19 may be a new civilisation disease affecting rich economies.

The Estimates of the Health and Economic Burden of Dengue in Vietnam

Dengue has been estimated to cause a substantial health and economic burden in Vietnam. The most recent studies have estimated that it is responsible for 39884 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually, representing an economic burden of US$94.87 million per year (in 2016 prices). However, there are alternative burden estimates that are notably lower. This variation is predominantly due to differences in how the number of symptomatic dengue cases is estimated. Understanding the methodology of these burden calculations is vital when interpreting health economic analyses of dengue. This review aims to provide an overview of the health and economic burden estimates of dengue in Vietnam. We also highlight important research gaps for future studies.

Economic analysis of dengue prevention and case management in the Maldives

As tourism is the mainstay of the Maldives' economy, this country recognizes the importance of controlling mosquito-borne diseases in an environmentally responsible manner. This study sought to estimate the economic costs of dengue in this Small Island Developing State of 417,492 residents. The authors reviewed relevant available documents on dengue epidemiology and conducted site visits and interviews with public health offices, health centers, referral hospitals, health insurers, and drug distribution organizations. An average of 1,543 symptomatic dengue cases was reported annually from 2011 through 2016. Intensive waste and water management on a resort island cost $1.60 per occupied room night. Local vector control programs on inhabited islands cost $35.93 for waste collection and $7.89 for household visits by community health workers per person per year. Ambulatory care for a dengue episode cost $49.87 at a health center, while inpatient episodes averaged $127.74 at a health center, $1,164.78 at a regional hospital, and $1,655.50 at a tertiary referral hospital. Overall, the cost of dengue illness in the Maldives in 2015 was $2,495,747 (0.06% of gross national income, GNI, or $6.10 per resident) plus $1,338,141 (0.03% of GNI or $3.27 per resident) for dengue surveillance. With tourism generating annual income of $898 and tax revenues of $119 per resident, results of an international analysis suggest that the risk of dengue lowers the country's gross annual income by $110 per resident (95% confidence interval $50 to $160) and its annual tax receipts by $14 per resident (95% confidence interval $7 to $22). Many innovative vector control efforts are affordable and could decrease future costs of dengue illness in the Maldives.