Two new prediction rules for spontaneous pregnancy leading to live birth among subfertile couples, based on the synthesis of three previous models

Antimüllerian hormone levels are associated with time to pregnancy in a cohort study of 3,150 women

OBJECTIVE

To study the association between antimüllerian hormone (AMH) levels and time of pregnancy. Although it has been hypothesized that serum AMH levels may indicate the chance of conception, findings have been mixed. Given that any association is expected to be modest, and it is possible that previous studies have been underpowered, we investigated this relationship in the largest prospective cohort to date.

DESIGN

Prospective time-to-pregnancy cohort study.

SETTING

Community.

PATIENT(S)

A total of 3,150 US women who had been trying to conceive for <3 months and had purchased a Modern Fertility hormone test.

INTERVENTION(S)

We developed a discrete time-to-event model using a binomial complementary log-log error structure within a generalized additive modeling framework, adjusting for confounding factors such as age, body mass index, parity, smoking status, polycystic ovary syndrome, and others. Sensitivity analyses were performed in women with regular menstrual cycles (21-35 days), who did not report using fertility treatments, using alternate AMH level categories (<0.7, 0.7-8.5, >8.5 ng/mL), and AMH levels as a continuous measure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

Primary outcomes included cumulative conception probability within 12 cycles and relative fecundability per menstrual cycle. Conception was defined by a self-reported positive pregnancy test.

RESULT(S)

Participants contributed 7.21 ± 5.32 cycles, with 1,325 (42.1%) achieving a pregnancy. Women with low AMH levels (<1 ng/mL, n = 427) had a lower chance of natural conception (adjusted hazard ratio [adjHR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.94) compared with women with normal AMH levels (1-5.5 ng/mL). There was no difference between high (5.5+ ng/mL) and normal AMH level categories (adjHR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.94-1.31). The inclusion of AMH improved the model (net reclassification index 0.10 [0.06-0.14]). The instantaneous probability of conception was highest in cycle four across all AMH categories: the probability of natural conception was 11.2% (95% CI, 9.0-14.0) for low AMH levels, 14.3% (95% CI, 12.3-16.5) for normal AMH levels, and 15.7% (95% CI, 12.9-19.0) for high AMH levels. In the regular cycles sensitivity analysis (n = 1,791), the low AMH group had a lower chance of conception (adjHR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.61-0.97) in the low AMH group compared with normal AMH, and similarly in the continuous model (adjHR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.85-0.95).

CONCLUSION(S)

Low AMH levels (<1 ng/mL) are independently associated with a modest but significant reduction in the chance of conception.

The web-based Pleasure&Pregnancy programme in the treatment of unexplained infertility: a randomized controlled trial

STUDY QUESTION

Does offering the Pleasure&Pregnancy (P&P) programme rather than expectant management improve naturally conceived ongoing pregnancy rates in couples diagnosed with unexplained infertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The P&P programme had no effect on the ongoing pregnancy rates of couples with unexplained infertility.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Underpowered studies suggested that face-to-face interventions targeting sexual health may increase pregnancy rates. The impact of an eHealth sexual health programme had yet to be evaluated by a large randomized controlled trial.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This is a nationwide multi-centre, unblinded, randomized controlled superiority trial (web-based randomization programme, 1:1 allocation ratio). This RCT intended to recruit 1164 couples within 3 years but was put on hold after having included 700 couples over 5 years (2016-2021). The web-based P&P programme contains psychosexual information and couple communication, mindfulness and sensate focus exercises aiming to help maintain or improve sexual health, mainly pleasure, and hence increase pregnancy rates. The P&P programme additionally offers information on the biology of conception and enables couples to interact online with peers and via email with coaches.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Heterosexual couples with unexplained infertility and a Hunault-prognosis of at least 30% chance of naturally conceiving a live-born child within 12 months were included, after their diagnostic work-up in 41 Dutch secondary and tertiary fertility centres. The primary outcome was an ongoing pregnancy, defined as a viable intrauterine pregnancy of at least 12 weeks duration confirmed by an ultrasound scan, conceived naturally within 6 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes were time to pregnancy, live birth, sexual health, and personal and relational well-being at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. The primary analyses were according to intention-to-treat principles. We calculated relative risks (RRs, pregnancy rates) and a risk difference (RD, pregnancy rates), Kaplan-Meier survival curves (live birth over time), and time, group, and interactive effects with mixed models analyses (sexual health and well-being).

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Totals of 352 (one withdrawal) and 348 (three withdrawals) couples were allocated to, respectively the P&P group and the expectant management group. Web-based tracking of the intervention group showed a high attrition rate (57% of couples) and limited engagement (i.e. median of 16 visits and 33 min total visitation time per couple). Intention-to-treat analyses showed that 19.4% (n = 68/351) of the P&P group and 22.6% (n = 78/345) of the expectant management group achieved a naturally conceived ongoing pregnancy (RR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.64-1.15, RD = -3.24%; 95% CI -9.28 to 2.81). The time to pregnancy did not differ between the groups (Log rank = 0.23). Live birth occurred in 18.8% (n = 66/351) of the couples of the P&P group and 22.3% (n = 77/345) of the couples of the expectant management group (RR = 0.84; 95% CI = 0.63-1.1). Intercourse frequency decreased equally over time in both groups. Sexual pleasure, orgasm, and satisfaction of women of the P&P group improved while these outcomes remained stable in the expectant management group. Male orgasm, intercourse satisfaction, and overall satisfaction decreased over time with no differences between groups. The intervention did not affect personal and relational well-being. Non-compliance by prematurely starting medically assisted reproduction, and clinical loss to follow-up were, respectively, 15.1% and 1.4% for the complete study population. Per protocol analysis for the primary outcome did not indicate a difference between the groups. Comparing the most engaged users with the expectant management group added that coital frequency decreased less, and that male sexual desire improved in the intervention group.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The intended sample size of 1164 was not reached because of a slow recruitment rate. The achieved sample size was, however, large enough to exclude an improvement of more than 8% of the P&P programme on our primary outcome.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

The P&P programme should not be offered to increase natural pregnancy rates but may be considered to improve sexual health. The attrition from and limited engagement with the P&P programme is in line with research on other eHealth programmes and underlines the importance of a user experience study.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

Funded by The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw, reference: 843001605) and Flanders Research Foundation. C.B.L. is editor-in-chief of Human Reproduction. H.W.L. received royalties or licences from Prometheus Publishers Springer Media Thieme Verlag. J.B. received support from MercK for attending the ESHRE course 'The ESHRE guideline on ovarian stimulation, do we have agreement?' J.v.D. reports consulting fees and lecture payments from Ferring, not related to the presented work, and support for attending ESHRE from Goodlife and for attending NFI Riga from Merck. A.H. reports consulting fees by Ferring Pharmaceutical company, The Netherlands, paid to institution UMCG, not related to the presented work. H.V. reports consulting fees from Ferring Pharmaceutical company, The Netherlands, and he is a member of the ESHRE guideline development group unexplained infertility and Chair of the Dutch guideline on unexplained infertility (unpaid). M.G. declares unrestricted research and educational grants from Ferring not related to the presented work, paid to their institution VU Medical Centre. The other authors have no conflicts to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NTR5709.

TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE

4 February 2016.

DATE OF FIRST PATIENT’S ENROLMENT

27 June 2016.

Tubal flushing with oil-based contrast during hysterosalpingography versus tubal flushing by hysterosalpingo-foam sonography in infertile women undergoing fertility work-up: study protocol of a randomised controlled trial (FOil study)

INTRODUCTION

Hysterosalpingography (HSG) and hysterosalpingo-foam sonography (HyFoSy) are commonly used tubal patency tests during the fertility work-up. Besides its diagnostic purpose, HSG with oil-based contrast can also be applied for its fertility-enhancing effect, by tubal flushing. HyFoSy is considered as less painful compared with HSG, it lacks exposure to iodinated contrast medium and ionising radiation. The fertility-enhancing effects of HyFoSy are less studied and randomised controlled trials comparing pregnancy rates after HSG and HyFoSy are lacking. This study (FOil study) is initiated to compare the effectiveness of tubal flushing during HSG with oil-based contrast and HyFoSy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The FOil study is a nationwide, multicentre, open label, randomised controlled trial with a superiority design. Infertile women with an indication for tubal patency testing during their fertility work-up will be randomly assigned to HSG with oil-based contrast medium or HyFoSy. The primary outcome is conception within 6 months after randomisation leading to live birth. To demonstrate or refute an 8% difference in conception leading to live birth in favour of HSG with oil-based contrast, 1102 women will be included in the trial. A cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective will be performed alongside the trial.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial is approved by the Medical Ethics Review Committee of the Amsterdam University Medical Centers (Ref. No. 2022.0884, date: 17 March 2023) and by the boards of the participating hospitals. The findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and participants will be informed through the patient organisation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05882188.

Enrichment of cell cycle pathways in progesterone-treated endometrial organoids of infertile women compared to fertile women

PURPOSE

To investigate whether the transcriptome profile differs between progesterone-treated infertile and fertile endometrial organoids.

METHODS

Endometrial biopsies were obtained from 14 infertile and seven fertile women, after which organoids were generated from isolated epithelial cells. To mimic the secretory phase, organoids were sequentially treated with 17β-estradiol (E2) and progesterone (P4) and subjected to RNA sequencing. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified using DESeq2 (lfcThreshold = 0, log2 Fold Change ≥ 1.0 or ≤ -1.0), and a principal component analysis (PCA) plot was generated. Functional enrichment analysis was performed by overrepresentation analysis and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). To functionally assess proliferation, OrganoSeg surface measurements were performed before (T0) and after (T1) differentiation of organoids, and T1/T0 ratios were calculated to determine the proliferation rate.

RESULTS

Although the PCA plot did not show clear clustering of the fertile and infertile samples, 363 significant DEGs (129 upregulated and 234 downregulated) were detected in infertile compared to fertile organoids. Mainly cell cycle processes were highly enriched in infertile organoids. Thus, we hypothesised that proliferative activity during differentiation may be higher in infertile organoids compared to fertile organoids. However, this could not be validated by cell surface measurements.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that cell cycle processes were enriched in E2/P4-treated infertile endometrial organoids as compared to fertile organoids. This could reflect persistently higher proliferative activity of the endometrial epithelial cells in differentiated infertile organoids compared to fertile organoids. To confirm this hypothesis, further studies are warranted.

Testing on bacterial vaginosis in a subfertile population and time to pregnancy: a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to investigate the influence of bacterial vaginosis on time to pregnancy in subfertile couples.

METHODS

Couples attending a teaching hospital in the Netherlands having an initial fertility assessment (IFA) between July 2019 and June 2022 were included in this prospective study, with follow-up of pregnancies until June 2023. Vaginal samples at IFA were analyzed on pH, qPCR BV, and 16S rRNA gene microbiome analysis of V1-V2 region. Main outcome measures were time from initial fertility assessment to ongoing pregnancy at 12 weeks and live birth, analyzed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

At IFA, 27% of 163 included participants tested positive for BV. BV status had no influence on time to ongoing pregnancy (HR 0.98, 0.60-1.61, aHR 0.97, 0.58-1.62). In persons with unexplained subfertility, positive BV status had a tendency of longer time to pregnancy. When persons had an indication for fertility treatment, positive BV status (HR 0.21, 0.05-0.88, aHR 0.19, 0.04-0.85) and microbiome community state type III and type IV had significant longer time to pregnancy.

CONCLUSION

This study indicates that BV may have a potential negative impact on time to live birth pregnancy in subfertile persons with an indication for fertility treatment. This study did not find an association between BV and time to live birth pregnancy in a general group of subfertile couples or in unexplained subfertility. More research should be done in persons with unexplained subfertility and if treatment improves time to pregnancy.

Hysterosalpingo-foam sonography versus hysterosalpingography during fertility work-up: an economic evaluation alongside a randomized controlled trial

STUDY QUESTION

What are the costs and effects of tubal patency testing by hysterosalpingo-foam sonography (HyFoSy) compared to hysterosalpingography (HSG) in infertile women during the fertility work-up?

SUMMARY ANSWER

During the fertility work-up, clinical management based on the test results of HyFoSy leads to slightly lower, though not statistically significant, live birth rates, at lower costs, compared to management based on HSG results.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Traditionally, tubal patency testing during the fertility work-up is performed by HSG. The FOAM trial, formally a non-inferiority study, showed that management decisions based on the results of HyFoSy resulted in a comparable live birth rate at 12 months compared to HSG (46% versus 47%; difference -1.2%, 95% CI: -3.4% to 1.5%; P = 0.27). Compared to HSG, HyFoSy is associated with significantly less pain, it lacks ionizing radiation and exposure to iodinated contrast medium. Moreover, HyFoSy can be performed by a gynaecologist during a one-stop fertility work-up. To our knowledge, the costs of both strategies have never been compared.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed an economic evaluation alongside the FOAM trial, a randomized multicenter study conducted in the Netherlands. Participating infertile women underwent, both HyFoSy and HSG, in a randomized order. The results of both tests were compared and women with discordant test results were randomly allocated to management based on the results of one of the tests. The follow-up period was twelve months.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We studied 1160 infertile women (18-41 years) scheduled for tubal patency testing. The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy leading to live birth. The economic evaluation compared costs and effects of management based on either test within 12 months. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs): the difference in total costs and chance of live birth. Data were analyzed using the intention to treat principle.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Between May 2015 and January 2019, 1026 of the 1160 women underwent both tubal tests and had data available: 747 women with concordant results (48% live births), 136 with inconclusive results (40% live births), and 143 with discordant results (41% had a live birth after management based on HyFoSy results versus 49% with live birth after management based on HSG results). When comparing the two strategies-management based on HyfoSy results versus HSG results-the estimated chance of live birth was 46% after HyFoSy versus 47% after HSG (difference -1.2%; 95% CI: -3.4% to 1.5%). For the procedures itself, HyFoSy cost €136 and HSG €280. When costs of additional fertility treatments were incorporated, the mean total costs per couple were €3307 for the HyFoSy strategy and €3427 for the HSG strategy (mean difference €-119; 95% CI: €-125 to €-114). So, while HyFoSy led to lower costs per couple, live birth rates were also slightly lower. The ICER was €10 042, meaning that by using HyFoSy instead of HSG we would save €10 042 per each additional live birth lost.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

When interpreting the results of this study, it needs to be considered that there was a considerable uncertainty around the ICER, and that the direct fertility enhancing effect of both tubal patency tests was not incorporated as women underwent both tubal patency tests in this study.

WIDER IMPLICATION OF THE FINDINGS

Compared to clinical management based on HSG results, management guided by HyFoSy leads to slightly lower live birth rates (though not statistically significant) at lower costs, less pain, without ionizing radiation and iodinated contrast exposure. Further research on the comparison of the direct fertility-enhancing effect of both tubal patency tests is needed.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

FOAM trial was an investigator-initiated study, funded by ZonMw, a Dutch organization for Health Research and Development (project number 837001504). IQ Medical Ventures provided the ExEm®-FOAM kits free of charge. The funders had no role in study design, collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data. K.D. reports travel-and speakers fees from Guerbet and her department received research grants from Guerbet outside the submitted work. H.R.V. received consulting-and travel fee from Ferring. A.M.v.P. reports received consulting fee from DEKRA and fee for an expert meeting from Ferring, both outside the submitted work. C.H.d.K. received travel fee from Merck. F.J.M.B. received a grant from Merck and speakers fee from Besins Healthcare. F.J.M.B. is a member of the advisory board of Merck and Ferring. J.v.D. reported speakers fee from Ferring. J.S. reports a research agreement with Takeda and consultancy for Sanofi on MR of motility outside the submitted work. M.v.W. received a travel grant from Oxford Press in the role of deputy editor for Human Reproduction and participates in a DSMB as independent methodologist in obstetrics studies in which she has no other role. B.W.M. received an investigator grant from NHMRC GNT1176437. B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, Guerbet, iGenomix, and Merck KGaA and travel support from Merck KGaA. V.M. received research grants from Guerbet, Merck, and Ferring and travel and speakers fees from Guerbet. The other authors do not report conflicts of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

International Clinical Trials Registry Platform No. NTR4746.

Evaluating prognosis in unexplained infertility

IMPORTANCE

The diagnosis of unexplained infertility presents a dilemma as it signifies both uncertainty about the cause of infertility and the potential for natural conception. Immediate treatment of all would result in overtreatment. Prediction models estimating the likelihood of natural conception and subsequent live birth can guide treatment decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate if in couples with unexplained infertility, prediction models are effective in guiding treatment decisions.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

This review examines 25 studies that assess prediction models for natural conception in couples with unexplained infertility in terms of derivation, validation, and impact analysis.

FINDINGS

The largest prediction models have been integrated in the synthesis models of Hunault, which includes female age and infertility duration, having been pregnant before and motile sperm percentage. Despite its limited discriminative capacity, this model demonstrates excellent calibration. Importantly, the impact of the Hunault model has been evaluated in randomized clinical trials, and shows that in couples with unexplained infertility and 12-month natural conception chances exceeding 30%, immediate treatment with intrauterine insemination (IUI) and controlled ovarian hyperstimulation is not better than expectant management for 6 months. Below the threshold of 30%, treatment with IUI is superior over expectant management, but immediate in vitro fertilization was not better than IUI.

CONCLUSION

In couples with unexplained infertility and a good prognosis for natural conception, treatment can be delayed, whereas in couples with a poor prognosis, immediate treatment (with IUI-controlled ovarian hyperstimulation) is warranted.

RELEVANCE

These data indicate that in couples with unexplained infertility, integration of prediction models into clinical decision making can optimize treatment selection and maximize fertility outcomes while limiting unnecessary treatment.

IVF versus IUI with ovarian stimulation for unexplained infertility: a collaborative individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

IVF and IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) are widely used in managing unexplained infertility. IUI-OS is generally considered first-line therapy, followed by IVF only if IUI-OS is unsuccessful after several attempts. However, there is a growing interest in using IVF for immediate treatment because it is believed to lead to higher live birth rates and shorter time to pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing IVF versus IUI-OS had varied study designs and findings. Some RCTs used complex algorithms to combine IVF and IUI-OS, while others had unequal follow-up time between arms or compared treatments on a per-cycle basis, which introduced biases. Comparing cumulative live birth rates of IVF and IUI-OS within a consistent time frame is necessary for a fair head-to-head comparison. Previous meta-analyses of RCTs did not consider the time it takes to achieve pregnancy, which is not possible using aggregate data. Individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) allows standardization of follow-up time in different trials and time-to-event analysis methods. We performed this IPD-MA to investigate if IVF increases cumulative live birth rate considering the time leading to pregnancy and reduces multiple pregnancy rate compared to IUI-OS in couples with unexplained infertility.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Group Specialised Register to identify RCTs that completed data collection before June 2021. A search update was carried out in January 2023. RCTs that compared IVF/ICSI to IUI-OS in couples with unexplained infertility were eligible. We invited author groups of eligible studies to join the IPD-MA and share the deidentified IPD of their RCTs. IPD were checked and standardized before synthesis. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Risk of Bias 2 tool.

OUTCOMES

Of eight potentially eligible RCTs, two were considered awaiting classification. In the other six trials, four shared IPD of 934 women, of which 550 were allocated to IVF and 383 to IUI-OS. Because the interventions were unable to blind, two RCTs had a high risk of bias, one had some concerns, and one had a low risk of bias. Considering the time to pregnancy leading to live birth, the cumulative live birth rate was not significantly higher in IVF compared to that in IUI-OS (4 RCTs, 908 women, 50.3% versus 43.2%, hazard ratio 1.19, 95% CI 0.81-1.74, I2 = 42.4%). For the safety primary outcome, the rate of multiple pregnancy was not significantly lower in IVF than IUI-OS (3 RCTs, 890 women, 3.8% versus 5.2% of all couples randomized, odds ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.41-1.50, I2 = 0.0%).

WIDER IMPLICATIONS

There is no robust evidence that in couples with unexplained infertility IVF achieves pregnancy leading to live birth faster than IUI-OS. IVF and IUI-OS are both viable options in terms of effectiveness and safety for managing unexplained infertility. The associated costs of interventions and the preference of couples need to be weighed in clinical decision-making.

Making immotile sperm motile using high-frequency ultrasound

Sperm motility is a natural selection with a crucial role in both natural and assisted reproduction. Common methods for increasing sperm motility are by using chemicals that cause embryotoxicity, and the multistep washing requirements of these methods lead to sperm DNA damage. We propose a rapid and noninvasive mechanotherapy approach for increasing the motility of human sperm cells by using ultrasound operating at 800 mW and 40 MHz. Single-cell analysis of sperm cells, facilitated by droplet microfluidics, shows that exposure to ultrasound leads to up to 266% boost to motility parameters of relatively immotile sperm, and as a result, 72% of these immotile sperm are graded as progressive after exposure, with a swimming velocity greater than 5 micrometer per second. These promising results offer a rapid and noninvasive clinical method for improving the motility of sperm cells in the most challenging assisted reproduction cases to replace intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) with less invasive treatments and to improve assisted reproduction outcomes.

Novel predictors for livebirth delivery rate in patients with idiopathic non-obstructive azoospermia based on the clinical prediction model

Objective

To build a prediction model for live birth delivery per intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) in iNOA patients by obtaining sperm by microdissection testicular sperm extraction (mTESE).

Methods

A retrospective cohort study of 377 couples with iNOA male partners treated with 519 mTESE-ICSI cycles was conducted from September 2013 to July 2021 at the Reproductive Medical Centre of Peking University Third Hospital. Following exclusions, 377 couples with iNOA male partners treated with 482 mTESE-ICSIs were included. A prediction model for live birth delivery per ICSI cycle was built by multivariable logistic regression and selected by 10-fold cross-validation. Discrimination was evaluated by c-statistics and calibration was evaluated by the calibration slope.

Results

The live birth delivery rate per mTESE-ICSI cycle was 39.21% (189/482) in these couples. The model identified that the presence of motile sperm during mTESE, bigger testes, higher endometrial thickness on the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) administration (ET-hCG), and higher quality embryos are associated with higher live birth delivery success rates. The results of the model were exported based on 10-fold cross-validation. In addition, the area under the mean ROC curve was 0.71 ± 0.05 after 10-fold cross-validation, indicating that the prediction model had certain prediction precision. A calibration plot with an estimated intercept of -1.653 (95% CI: -13.403 to 10.096) and a slope of 1.043 (95% CI: 0.777 to 1.308) indicated that the model was well-calibrated.

Conclusion

Our prediction model will provide valuable information about the chances of live birth delivery in couples with iNOA male partners who have a plan for mTESE-ICSI treatment. Therefore, it can improve and personalize counseling for the medical treatment of these patients.

In vitro fertilisation for unexplained subfertility

BACKGROUND

In vitro fertilisation (IVF) is a treatment for unexplained subfertility but is invasive, expensive, and associated with risks.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of IVF versus expectant management, unstimulated intrauterine insemination (IUI), and IUI with ovarian stimulation using gonadotropins, clomiphene citrate (CC), or letrozole in improving pregnancy outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched following databases from inception to November 2021, with no language restriction: Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL. We searched reference lists of articles and conference abstracts.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing effectiveness of IVF for unexplained subfertility with expectant management, unstimulated IUI, and stimulated IUI.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We followed standard Cochrane methods.

MAIN RESULTS

IVF versus expectant management (two RCTs) We are uncertain whether IVF improves live birth rate (LBR) and clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) compared to expectant management (odds ratio (OR) 22.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.56 to 189.37; 1 RCT; 51 women; very low-quality evidence; OR 3.24, 95% CI 1.07 to 9.8; 2 RCTs; 86 women; I2 = 80%; very low-quality evidence). Adverse effects were not reported. Assuming 4% LBR and 12% CPR with expectant management, these would be 8.8% to 9% and 13% to 58% with IVF. IVF versus unstimulated IUI (two RCTs) IVF may improve LBR compared to unstimulated IUI (OR 2.47, 95% CI 1.19 to 5.12; 2 RCTs; 156 women; I2 = 60%; low-quality evidence). We are uncertain whether there is a difference between IVF and IUI for multiple pregnancy rate (MPR) (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.04 to 27.29; 1 RCT; 43 women; very low-quality evidence) and miscarriage rate (OR 1.72, 95% CI 0.14 to 21.25; 1 RCT; 43 women; very low-quality evidence). No study reported ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS). Assuming 16% LBR, 3% MPR, and 6% miscarriage rate with unstimulated IUI, these outcomes would be 18.5% to 49%, 0.1% to 46%, and 0.9% to 58% with IVF. IVF versus IUI + ovarian stimulation with gonadotropins (6 RCTs), CC (1 RCT), or letrozole (no RCTs) Stratified analysis was based on pretreatment status. Treatment-naive women There may be little or no difference in LBR between IVF and IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles: OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.61; 3 RCTs; 731 women; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence; 1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle: OR 1.63, 95% CI 0.91 to 2.92; 2 RCTs; 221 women; I2 = 54%; low-quality evidence); or between IVF and IUI + CC (OR 2.51, 95% CI 0.96 to 6.55; 1 RCT; 103 women; low-quality evidence). Assuming 42% LBR with IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles) and 26% LBR with IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle), LBR would be 39% to 54% and 24% to 51% with IVF. Assuming 15% LBR with IUI + CC, LBR would be 15% to 54% with IVF. There may be little or no difference in CPR between IVF and IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles: OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.59; 3 RCTs; 731 women; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence; 1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle: OR 4.59, 95% CI 1.86 to 11.35; 1 RCT; 103 women; low-quality evidence); or between IVF and IUI + CC (OR 3.58, 95% CI 1.51 to 8.49; 1 RCT; 103 women; low-quality evidence). Assuming 48% CPR with IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles) and 17% with IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle), CPR would be 44% to 60% and 28% to 70% with IVF. Assuming 21% CPR with IUI + CC, CPR would be 29% to 69% with IVF. There may be little or no difference in multiple pregnancy rate (MPR) between IVF and IUI + gonadotropins (1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles: OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.77; 3 RCTs; 731 women; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence; 1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle: OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.58; 2 RCTs; 221 women; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence); or between IVF and IUI + CC (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.17 to 2.41; 1 RCT; 102 women; low-quality evidence). We are uncertain if there is a difference in OHSS between IVF and IUI + gonadotropins with 1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles (OR 6.86, 95% CI 0.35 to 134.59; 1 RCT; 207 women; very low-quality evidence); and there may be little or no difference in OHSS with 1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.36 to 4.16; 2 RCTs; 221 women; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence). There may be little or no difference between IVF and IUI + CC (OR 1.53, 95% CI 0.24 to 9.57; 1 RCT; 102 women; low-quality evidence). We are uncertain if there is a difference in miscarriage rate between IVF and IUI + gonadotropins with 1 IVF to 2 to 3 IUI cycles (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.03 to 3.04; 1 RCT; 207 women; very low-quality evidence); and there may be little or no difference with 1 IVF to 1 IUI cycle (OR 1.16, 95% CI 0.44 to 3.02; 1 RCT; 103 women; low-quality evidence). There may be little or no difference between IVF and IUI + CC (OR 1.48, 95% CI 0.54 to 4.05; 1 RCT; 102 women; low-quality evidence). In women pretreated with IUI + CC IVF may improve LBR compared with IUI + gonadotropins (OR 3.90, 95% CI 2.32 to 6.57; 1 RCT; 280 women; low-quality evidence). Assuming 22% LBR with IUI + gonadotropins, LBR would be 39% to 65% with IVF. IVF may improve CPR compared with IUI + gonadotropins (OR 14.13, 95% CI 7.57 to 26.38; 1 RCT; 280 women; low-quality evidence). Assuming 30% CPR with IUI + gonadotropins, CPR would be 76% to 92% with IVF.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

IVF may improve LBR over unstimulated IUI. Data should be interpreted with caution as overall evidence quality was low.

Predictive ability of the Desire to Avoid Pregnancy scale

BACKGROUND

A longstanding gap in the reproductive health field has been the availability of a screening instrument that can reliably predict a person's likelihood of becoming pregnant. The Desire to Avoid Pregnancy Scale is a new measure; understanding its sensitivity and specificity as a screening tool for pregnancy as well as its predictive ability and how this varies by socio-demographic factors is important to inform its implementation.

METHODS

This analysis was conducted on a cohort of 994 non-pregnant participants recruited in October 2018 and followed up for one year. The cohort was recruited using social media as well as advertisements in a university, school, abortion clinic and outreach sexual health service. Almost 90% of eligible participants completed follow-up at 12 months; those lost to follow-up were not significantly different on key socio-demographic factors. We used baseline DAP score and a binary variable of whether participants experienced pregnancy during the study to assess the sensitivity, specificity, area under the ROC curve (AUROC) and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of the DAP at a range of cut-points. We also examined how the predictive ability of the DAP varied according to socio-demographic factors and by the time frame considered (e.g., pregnancy within 3, 6, 9 and 12 months).

RESULTS

At a cut-point of 2 on the 0-4 range of the DAP scale, the DAP had a sensitivity of 0.78, a specificity of 0.81 and an excellent AUROC of 0.87. In this sample the cumulative incidence of pregnancy was 16% (95%CI 13%, 18%) making the PPV 43% and the NPV 95% at this cut-point. The DAP score was the factor most strongly associated with pregnancy, even after age and number of children were taken into account. The association between baseline DAP score and pregnancy did not differ across time frames.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to assess the DAP scale as a screening tool and shows that its predictive ability is superior to the limited pre-existing pregnancy prediction tools. Based on our findings, the DAP could be used with a cut-point selected according to the purpose.

Alternatives to in vitro fertilization

There have been concerns on the potential overuse of in vitro fertilization (IVF) in view of the lack of evidence on effectiveness in certain populations, potential short and long-term safety risks, and economic considerations. On the other hand, the use of alternatives to IVF seems to be underappreciated in clinical practice as well as research. In this review, we summarized the up-to-date evidence on the effectiveness, safety as well as cost-effectiveness of different alternatives to IVF, including expectant management, intrauterine insemination, tubal flushing, in vitro maturation as well as intravaginal culture. We also discussed the trend of IVF use over the last decade and the available tiers of service because of intravaginal culture, and revisited the roles of different alternatives to IVF in modern reproductive medicine from both clinical and research perspectives.

The effectiveness of immediate versus delayed tubal flushing with oil-based contrast in women with unexplained infertility (H2Oil-timing study): study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In women with unexplained infertility, tubal flushing with oil-based contrast during hysterosalpingography leads to significantly more live births as compared to tubal flushing with water-based contrast during hysterosalpingography. However, it is unknown whether incorporating tubal flushing with oil-based contrast in the initial fertility work-up results to a reduced time to conception leading to live birth when compared to delayed tubal flushing that is performed six months after the initial fertility work-up. We also aim to evaluate the effectiveness of tubal flushing with oil-based contrast during hysterosalpingography versus no tubal flushing in the first six months of the study.

METHODS

This study will be an investigator-initiated, open-label, international, multicenter, randomized controlled trial with a planned economic analysis alongside the study. Infertile women between 18 and 39 years of age, who have an ovulatory cycle, who are at low risk for tubal pathology and have been advised expectant management for at least six months (based on the Hunault prediction score) will be included in this study. Eligible women will be randomly allocated (1:1) to immediate tubal flushing (intervention) versus delayed tubal flushing (control group) by using web-based block randomization stratified per study center. The primary outcome is time to conception leading to live birth with conception within twelve months after randomization. We assess the cumulative conception rate at six and twelve months as two co-primary outcomes. Secondary outcomes include ongoing pregnancy rate, live birth rate, miscarriage rate, ectopic pregnancy rate, number of complications, procedural pain score and cost-effectiveness. To demonstrate or refute a shorter time to pregnancy of three months with a power of 90%, a sample size of 554 women is calculated.

DISCUSSION

The H2Oil-timing study will provide insight into whether tubal flushing with oil-based contrast during hysterosalpingography should be incorporated in the initial fertility work-up in women with unexplained infertility as a therapeutic procedure. If this multicenter RCT shows that tubal flushing with oil-based contrast incorporated in the initial fertility work-up reduces time to conception and is a cost-effective strategy, the results may lead to adjustments of (inter)national guidelines and change clinical practice.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The study was retrospectively registered in International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (Main ID: EUCTR2018-004153-24-NL).

The cost-effectiveness of using a prognosis-tailored strategy model to triage couples with idiopathic infertility for assisted reproduction technology

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether a prognosis-tailored triage of ART for couples with idiopathic infertility by using the Hunault prognostic model can decrease the cost of treatment without compromising the chance of live birth.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a retrospective study conducted in an Australian fertility clinic. Couples seeking infertility consultation who were subsequently found to have idiopathic infertility after evaluation were included. We compared the costs per conception leading to live birth of the prognosis-tailored strategy with the immediate ART strategy, which generally reflects the current practice in Australian fertility clinics, over a 24-month period. In the prognosis-tailored strategy, for each couple, the prognosis for natural conception was assessed using the well-established Hunault model. Total cost of treatments were calculated as the sum of typical out-of-pocket and Australian Medicare cost (Australian national insurance scheme).

RESULTS

We studied 261 couples. In the prognosis-tailored strategy, the total cost was $2,766,781 and the live birth rate was 63.9%. In contrast, the immediate ART strategy yielded a live birth rate of 64.4% with a total cost of $3,176,845. Implementing the prognosis-tailored strategy using the Hunault model saved $410,064 in total and $1,571 per couple. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $341,720 per live birth.

CONCLUSION

In couples with idiopathic infertility, assessment of prognosis for natural conception using the Hunault model and delaying ART for 12 months in couples with favourable prognoses can considerably reduce costs without significantly compromising live birth rates.

An Algorithm to Predict the Lack of Pregnancy after Intrauterine Insemination in Infertile Patients

Increasing intrauterine insemination (IUI) success rates is essential to improve the quality of care for infertile couples. Additionally, straight referral of couples with less probability of achieving a pregnancy through IUI to more complex methods such as in vitro fertilization is important to reduce costs and the time to pregnancy. The aim of the present study is to prospectively evaluate the threshold values for different parameters related to success in intrauterine insemination in order to provide better reproductive counseling to infertile couples, moreover, to generate an algorithm based on male and female parameters to predict whether the couple is suitable for achieving pregnancy using IUI. For that, one hundred ninety-seven infertile couples undergoing 409 consecutive cycles of intrauterine insemination during a two-year period were included. The first year served as a definition of the parameters and thresholds related to pregnancy achievement, while the second year was used to validate the consistency of these parameters. Subsequently, those parameters that remained consistent throughout two years were included in a generalized estimating equation model (GEE) to determine their significance in predicting pregnancy achievement. Parameters significantly associated with the lack of pregnancy through IUI and included in the GEE were (p < 0.05): (i) male age > 41 years; (ii) ejaculate sperm count < 51.79 x 106 sperm; (iii) swim-up alkaline Comet > 59%; (iv) female body mass index > 45 kg/m2; (v) duration of infertility (>84 months), and (vi) basal LH levels > 27.28 mUI/mL. The application of these limits could provide a pregnancy prognosis to couples before undergoing intrauterine insemination, therefore avoiding it in couples with low chances of success. The retrospective application of these parameters to the same cohort of patients would have increased the pregnancy rate by up to 30%.

Predicting pregnancy chances leading to term live birth in oligo/anovulatory women diagnosed with PCOS

RESEARCH QUESTION

Which patient features predict the time to pregnancy (TTP) leading to term live birth in infertile women diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS)?

DESIGN

Prospective cohort follow-up study was completed, in which initial standardized phenotyping was conducted at two Dutch university medical centres from January 2004 to January 2014. Data were linked to the Netherlands Perinatal Registry to obtain pregnancy outcomes for each participant. All women underwent treatment according to a standardized protocol, starting with ovulation induction as first-line treatment. Predictors of pregnancies (leading to term live births) during the first year after PCOS diagnosis were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 1779 consecutive women diagnosed with PCOS between January 2004 and January 2014 were included. In the first year following screening, 659 (37%) women with PCOS attained a pregnancy leading to term birth (≥37 weeks of gestational age). A higher chance of pregnancy was associated with race, smoking, body mass index (BMI), insulin, total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations (c-statistic = 0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Predictors of an increased chance of a live birth include White race, no current smoking, lower BMI, insulin and total testosterone concentrations, and higher SHBG concentrations. This study presents a nomogram to predict the chances of achieving a pregnancy (leading to a term live birth) within 1 year of treatment.

Semen rheology and its relation to male infertility

Infertility affects 15% of couples of reproductive age worldwide. In spite of many advances in understanding and treating male infertility, there is still a number of issues that need further investigation and translation to the clinic. Here, we review the current knowledge and practice concerning semen rheology and its relation with pathological states affecting male infertility. Although it is well recognized that altered rheological properties of semen can impair normal sperm movement in the female reproductive tract, routine semen analysis is mostly focused on number, motility and morphology of spermatozoa, and includes only an approximate, operator-dependent measure of semen viscosity. The latter is based on the possible formation of a liquid thread from a pipette where a semen sample has been aspirated, a method that is sensitive not only to viscosity but also to elongational properties and surface tension of semen. The formation of a liquid thread is usually associated with a gel-like consistency of the sample and changes in spermatozoa motility in such a complex medium are still to be fully elucidated. The aim of this review is to point out that a more quantitative and reliable characterization of semen rheology is in order to improve the current methods of semen analysis and to develop additional tools for the diagnosis and treatment of male infertility.

The impact of dolutegravir-based combination antiretroviral therapy on the spermatozoa and fertility parameters of men living with human immunodeficiency virus

The factors responsible for this reported fertility decline among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive men is yet to be determined. This study is aimed at investigating the impact of HIV or combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) on sperm cells, reproductive hormones, oxidative stress markers, apoptosis, and sperm DNA fragmentation of men living with HIV. Twenty-one men living with HIV gave their written informed consent to participate in this study. Only 11 of the participants successfully donated blood and semen before and after 3 months of their treatment with cART. Semen, reproductive hormones, oxidative stress biomarkers, and DNA fragmentation were analysed. Data were subjected to Wilcoxon matched pairs signed rank test (ethical approval: CMUL/HREC/09/19/614). There was a significant decrease in viral load of HIV (p < 0.01), and a marked increase in progressive and total sperm motility. Total sperm count, morphology, and vitality had no significant change after 3 months of treatment with cART however, there was a significant increase (p < 0.05) in testosterone from 2.48 to 3.68 ng/ml, but luteinizing hormone decreased significantly (p < 0.05) from 9.6 to 6.5 mIU/ml. In addition, sperm DNA fragmentation increased significantly (p < 0.01). Conversely, viral load, and catalase decreased significantly, but no significant difference in malondialdehyde. This study showed that HIV depleted testosterone and impaired sperm motility which may negatively affect the fertility potential of men living with HIV. It also showed that adherence to cART (a combination of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir) reduces the viral load and reverses the deleterious effects of cART albeit, cART appears to be toxic at subcellular spermatogenic levels.

Duration of infertility and assisted reproductive outcomes in non-male factor infertility: can use of ICSI turn the tide?

Background

Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) is increasingly used among in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles without male factor infertility. For couples with prolonged infertility duration, the preferred insemination method may vary across laboratories and clinics. We analyzed whether ICSI is effective for non-male factor infertility with long infertility duration.

Methods

Seventeen thousand four hundred seventy-seven IVF/ICSI cycles from women with non-male factor infertility were included, of these 4177 women with infertility duration ≥ 5 years were in the final analysis. Primary outcome was the live birth rate after first embryo transfer. Secondary outcomes were rates of clinical pregnancy and fertilization.

Results

A nonlinear relationship was observed between infertility duration and IVF fertilization rate, which decreased with infertility years up to the turning point (4.8 years). 4177 women with infertility ≥ 5 years were categorized by IVF (n = 3806) or ICSI (n = 371). Live birth rate after first embryo transfer was 43.02% in ICSI and 47.85% in IVF group (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.91; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.72–1.15). Fertilization rate per metaphaseII (aOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.86–1.40) and clinical pregnancy rate (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.71–1.13) were similar between the two groups. Sensitive analyses (women ≥ 35 years) did not show a benefit of ICSI over IVF.

Conclusions

Women with infertility exceeding 4.8 years had decreased incidence of IVF fertilization. The use of ICSI showed no significant improvement in fertilization and live birth rates for non-male factor couples with ≥ 5 years of infertility.

The cost-effectiveness of transvaginal hydrolaparoscopy versus hysterosalpingography in the work-up for subfertility

STUDY QUESTION

Is a strategy starting with transvaginal hydrolaparoscopy (THL) cost-effective compared to a strategy starting with hysterosalpingography (HSG) in the work-up for subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

A strategy starting with THL is cost-effective compared to a strategy starting with HSG in the work-up for subfertile women.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Tubal pathology is a common cause of subfertility and tubal patency testing is one of the cornerstones of the fertility work-up. Both THL and HSG are safe procedures and can be used as a first-line tubal patency test.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This economic evaluation was performed alongside a randomized clinical trial comparing THL and HSG in 300 subfertile women, between May 2013 and October 2016. For comparisons of THL and HSG, the unit costs were split into three main categories: costs of the diagnostic procedure, costs of fertility treatments and the costs for pregnancy outcomes.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Subfertile women scheduled for tubal patency testing were eligible. Women were randomized to a strategy starting with THL or a strategy starting with HSG. The primary outcome of the study was conception leading to a live birth within 24 months after randomization. The mean costs and outcomes for each treatment group were compared. We used a non-parametric bootstrap resampling of 1000 re-samples to investigate the effect of uncertainty and we created a cost-effectiveness plane and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We allocated 149 women to THL and 151 to HSG, and we were able to achieve complete follow-up of 142 versus 148 women, respectively. After the fertility work-up women were treated according to the Dutch guidelines and based on a previously published prognostic model. In the THL group, 83 women (58.4%) conceived a live born child within 24 months after randomization compared to 82 women (55.4%) in the HSG group (difference 3.0% (95% CI: -8.3 to 14.4)). The mean total costs per woman were lower in the THL group compared to the HSG group (THL group €4991 versus €5262 in the HSG group, mean cost difference = -€271 (95% CI -€273 to -€269)). Although the costs of only the diagnostic procedure were higher in the THL group, in the HSG group more women underwent diagnostic and therapeutic laparoscopies and also had higher costs for fertility treatments.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our trial was conducted in women with a low risk of tubal pathology; therefore, the results of our study are not generalizable to women with high risk of tubal pathology. Furthermore, this economic analysis was based on the Dutch healthcare system, and possibly our results are not generalizable to countries with different strategies or costs for fertility treatments.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

After 2 years of follow-up, we found a live birth rate of 58.4% in the THL group versus 55.4% in the HSG group and a lower mean cost per woman in the THL group, with a cost difference of -€271. The findings of our trial suggest that a strategy starting with THL is cost-effective compared to a strategy starting with HSG in the workup for subfertile women. However, the cost difference between the two diagnostic strategies is limited compared to the total cost per woman in our study and before implementing THL as a first-line strategy for tubal patency testing, more research in other fields, such as patient preference and acceptance, is necessary.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The authors received no external financial support for the research. B.W.J.M. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (GNT1176437). B.W.J.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA, Guerbet. B.W.J.M. reports receiving travel support from Merck KGaA. C.T.P. reports consultancy for Guerbet, outside of this manuscript. All other authors have no conflicts to declare.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NTR3462.

Expectant management versus IUI in unexplained subfertility and a poor pregnancy prognosis (EXIUI study): a randomized controlled trial

STUDY QUESTION

For couples with unexplained subfertility and a poor prognosis for natural conception, is 6 months expectant management (EM) inferior to IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS), in terms of live births?

SUMMARY ANSWER

In couples with unexplained subfertility and a poor prognosis for natural conception, 6 months of EM is inferior compared to IUI-OS in terms of live births.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Couples with unexplained subfertility and a poor prognosis are often treated with IUI-OS. In couples with unexplained subfertility and a relatively good prognosis for natural conception (>30% in 12 months), IUI-OS does not increase the live birth rate as compared to 6 months of EM. However, in couples with a poor prognosis for natural conception (<30% in 12 months), the effectiveness of IUI-OS is uncertain.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed a non-inferiority multicentre randomized controlled trial within the infrastructure of the Dutch Consortium for Healthcare Evaluation and Research in Obstetrics and Gynaecology. We intended to include 1091 couples within 3 years. The couples were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to 6 months EM or 6 months IUI-OS with either clomiphene citrate or gonadotrophins.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We studied heterosexual couples with unexplained subfertility and a poor prognosis for natural conception (<30% in 12 months). The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy leading to a live birth. Non-inferiority would be shown if the lower limit of the one-sided 90% risk difference (RD) CI was less than minus 7% compared to an expected live birth rate of 30% following IUI-OS. We calculated RD, relative risks (RRs) with 90% CI and a corresponding hazard rate for live birth over time based on intention-to-treat and per-protocol (PP) analysis.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Between October 2016 and September 2020, we allocated 92 couples to EM and 86 to IUI-OS. The trial was halted pre-maturely owing to slow inclusion. Mean female age was 34 years, median duration of subfertility was 21 months. Couples allocated to EM had a lower live birth rate than couples allocated to IUI-OS (12/92 (13%) in the EM group versus 28/86 (33%) in the IUI-OS group; RR 0.40 90% CI 0.24 to 0.67). This corresponds to an absolute RD of minus 20%; 90% CI: -30% to -9%. The hazard ratio for live birth over time was 0.36 (95% CI 0.18 to 0.70). In the PP analysis, live births rates were 8 of 70 women (11%) in the EM group versus 26 of 73 women (36%) in the IUI-OS group (RR 0.32, 90% CI 0.18 to 0.59; RD -24%, 90% CI -36% to -13%) in line with inferiority of EM.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our trial did not reach the planned sample size, therefore the results are limited by the number of participants.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This study confirms the results of a previous trial that in couples with unexplained subfertility and a poor prognosis for natural conception, EM is inferior to IUI-OS.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The trial was supported by a grant of the SEENEZ healthcare initiative. The subsidizing parties were The Dutch Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMW 837004023, www.zonmw.nl) and the umbrella organization of 10 health insurers in The Netherlands. E.R.G. receives personal fees from Titus Health care outside the submitted work. M.G. declares unrestricted research and educational grants from Guerbet, Merck and Ferring not related to the presented work, paid to their institution VU medical centre. A.B.H. reports receiving travel and speakers fees from Nordic Pharma and Merck and he is member of the Nordic Pharma ANGEL group and of the Safety Monitoring Board of Womed. C.B.L. reports speakers fee from Inmed and Yingming, and his department receives research grants from Ferring, Merck and Guerbet paid to VU medical centre. B.W.J.M. is supported by a NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437) and reports consultancy for ObsEva and Merck. M.v.W. received a grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development ZonMW (80-8520098-91072). F.M. received two grants from the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development ZonMW (NTR 5599 and NTR 6590). The other authors report no competing interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Dutch Trial register NL5455 (NTR5599).

TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE

18 December 2015.

DATE OF FIRST PATIENT’S ENROLMENT

26 January 2017.

Should we adopt a prognosis-based approach to unexplained infertility?

The treatment of unexplained infertility is a contentious topic that continues to attract a great deal of interest amongst clinicians, patients and policy makers. The inability to identify an underlying pathology makes it difficult to devise effective treatments for this condition. Couples with unexplained infertility can conceive on their own and any proposed intervention needs to offer a better chance of having a baby. Over the years, several prognostic and prediction models based on routinely collected clinical data have been developed, but these are not widely used by clinicians and patients. In this opinion paper, we propose a prognosis-based approach such that a decision to access treatment is based on the estimated chances of natural and treatment-related conception, which, in the same couple, can change over time. This approach avoids treating all couples as a homogeneous group and minimizes unnecessary treatment whilst ensuring access to those who need it early.

The needs of subfertile couples continuing to attempt natural conception: in-depth interviews

STUDY QUESTION

What are the experiences and the support and sexual advice needs of subfertile couples continuing to attempt natural conception after the diagnostic fertility work-up?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Exploration of the experiences of couples showed that couples would have appreciated fertility clinic staff embedding expectant management into the fertility clinic trajectory, supportive staff with female and male patient interactions and advice on common experiences of peers and on managing their lifestyle, distress and subfertility-related sexual challenges.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Dutch and British professional guidelines advise newly diagnosed subfertile couples with a 'good prognosis' to continue to attempt natural conception and do not require fertility clinic staff to interact with patients. Fertility clinic staff and subfertile couples struggle to follow these guidelines as they feel an urgent need for action. Subfertile couples might benefit from sexual advice, as subfertility is negatively associated with sexual functioning, which is important for natural conception.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

Twelve one-time in-depth interviews (2015-2017) were conducted with 10 heterosexual couples and 2 women whose partners did not participate, then the interviews were subjected to inductive content analysis, reaching inductive thematic saturation.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

The 22 interviewees had experienced 3-18 months of expectant management after their diagnostic fertility work-up in a Belgian or a Dutch tertiary fertility clinic. The face-to-face in-depth interviews explored positive and negative experiences and unmet needs. The transcribed interviews were subjected to inductive content analysis, by two researchers discussing initial disagreements.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Couples would appreciate fertility clinic staff embedding expectant management in the fertility clinic trajectory, by starting off with reassuring couples that their very thorough diagnostic fertility work-up demonstrated their good chance of natural conception, and by involving couples in deciding on the duration of expectant management and by planning the follow-up appointment after expectant management up front. Couples had encountered sexual challenges during expectant management and had an interest in sexual advice, focused on increasing pleasure and partner bonding and preventing the rise of dysfunctions. The couples agreed that a (secured) website with evidence-based, non-patronizing text and mixed media would be an appropriate format for a novel support programme. Couples were keen for interactions with fertility clinic staff which addressed both partners of subfertile couples. Couples also valued advice on managing their lifestyle and distress and would have liked information on the experiences of their peers.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

Recall bias is plausible given the retrospective nature of this study. This explorative interview study was not designed for examining country or gender differences in experiences and needs but it did generate new findings on inter-country differences.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Rather than simply advising expectant management, fertility clinics are encouraged to offer couples who continue to attempt natural conception after their diagnostic fertility work-up, supportive patient-staff interactions with advice on common experiences of peers and on managing their lifestyle, distress and sexual challenges related to subfertility.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

Funded by Flanders Research Foundation and the University of Amsterdam. There are no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

The relationship between vaginal pH and bacterial vaginosis as diagnosed using qPCR in an asymptomatic subfertile population

PURPOSE

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a dysbiosis of the vaginal microbiome and a condition found in 20-30% of all women. Literature describing the possible link between BV and subfertility is increasing. Newer techniques such as quantitative polymerase chain reactions (qPCR) detect BV more accurately than traditional methods but come with high costs. The association between pH and BV as diagnosed using traditional methods is well-established in a symptomatic population. This study is the first to investigate the association between pH and BV diagnosed by qPCR in an asymptomatic subfertile population and to examine the usefulness of pH as a means of cost reduction.

METHODS

Data of 170 pH-qPCR combinations were used from a prospective cohort study examining bacterial vaginosis in a subfertile population. 102 women received a vaginal swab and pH measurement at baseline and subsequent advanced reproductive technology (ART) treatments. The swabs are analysed using the AmpliSens^®Florocenosis/Bacterial vaginosis-FRT qPCR kit.

RESULTS

pH is strongly associated with BV as diagnosed by qPCR (OR 3.06, p = 0.000, CI 1.65-5.68). The cut-off point for pH ≥ 4.7 maximised diagnostic performance [AUC 0.74 (CI 0.66-0.83), sensitivity 76%] and reduced costs by 60%.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that the vaginal pH for a multi-ethnic, asymptomatic population of women attending fertility clinics is strongly associated with BV qPCR outcome. Using the cut-off of pH of 4.7 has a high sensitivity for diagnosis of BV by qPCR and can be achieved at a cost reduction of 60%.

Effect of endometrial scratching on unassisted conception for unexplained infertility: a randomized controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether endometrial scratching increases the chance of live birth in women with unexplained infertility attempting to conceive without assisted reproductive technology.

DESIGN

Randomized, placebo-controlled, participant-blind, multicenter international trial.

SETTING

Fertility clinics.

PATIENT(S)

Women with a diagnosis of unexplained infertility trying to conceive without assistance.

INTERVENTION(S)

Participants were randomly assigned to receive an endometrial biopsy or a placebo procedure (placement of a biopsy catheter in the posterior fornix, without inserting it into the external cervical os). Both groups performed regular unprotected intercourse with the intention of conceiving over three consecutive study cycles.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

The primary outcome was live birth.

RESULT(S)

A total of 220 women underwent randomization. The live birth rate was 9% (10 of 113 women) in the endometrial-scratch group and 7% (7 of 107 women) in the control group (adjusted OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 0.50-4.03). There were no differences between the groups in the secondary outcomes of clinical pregnancy, viable pregnancy, ongoing pregnancy, and miscarriage. Endometrial scratching was associated with a higher pain score on a 10-point scale (adjusted mean difference, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.53-3.60).

CONCLUSION(S)

This trial did not find evidence that endometrial scratching improves the live birth rate in women with unexplained infertility trying to conceive without assistance.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12614000656639.

Establishing a predictive model for the evaluation of fecundity

AIM

We aim to establish a predictive model for the evaluation of fecundity based on infertility-related factors.

METHODS

A total of 410 expectant couples who visited the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University on January 1, 2017 and June 10, 2019 were included in this study. The 1-year follow-up was carried out to investigate the pregnancy of the female. They were divided into model group and test group, respectively. The basic information, life behavior and clinical indices were screened using the Logistics regression analysis and LASSO regression analysis. In addition, the multivariate logistic regression was used to establish the model for the prediction of fecundity risk.

RESULTS

The risk factors for the predictive model included female age and occupational pressure, gynecological disease, anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), depression, as well as male smoking. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model A and model B was 0.954 (0.931 ~ 0.978) and 0.955 (0.931 ~ 0.979), respectively. The AUC in the test group was 0.917 (0.869 ~ 0.965) and 0.921 (0.873 ~ 0.968). There were no statistical differences in the fitting value and measured values in the model group.

CONCLUSIONS

We established a predictive model for the evaluation of fecundity, which showed a satisfactory accuracy and discriminatory power.

Predictive models of pregnancy based on data from a preconception cohort study

STUDY QUESTION

Can we derive adequate models to predict the probability of conception among couples actively trying to conceive?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Leveraging data collected from female participants in a North American preconception cohort study, we developed models to predict pregnancy with performance of ∼70% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Earlier work has focused primarily on identifying individual risk factors for infertility. Several predictive models have been developed in subfertile populations, with relatively low discrimination (AUC: 59-64%).

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Study participants were female, aged 21-45 years, residents of the USA or Canada, not using fertility treatment, and actively trying to conceive at enrollment (2013-2019). Participants completed a baseline questionnaire at enrollment and follow-up questionnaires every 2 months for up to 12 months or until conception. We used data from 4133 participants with no more than one menstrual cycle of pregnancy attempt at study entry.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

On the baseline questionnaire, participants reported data on sociodemographic factors, lifestyle and behavioral factors, diet quality, medical history and selected male partner characteristics. A total of 163 predictors were considered in this study. We implemented regularized logistic regression, support vector machines, neural networks and gradient boosted decision trees to derive models predicting the probability of pregnancy: (i) within fewer than 12 menstrual cycles of pregnancy attempt time (Model I), and (ii) within 6 menstrual cycles of pregnancy attempt time (Model II). Cox models were used to predict the probability of pregnancy within each menstrual cycle for up to 12 cycles of follow-up (Model III). We assessed model performance using the AUC and the weighted-F1 score for Models I and II, and the concordance index for Model III.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Model I and II AUCs were 70% and 66%, respectively, in parsimonious models, and the concordance index for Model III was 63%. The predictors that were positively associated with pregnancy in all models were: having previously breastfed an infant and using multivitamins or folic acid supplements. The predictors that were inversely associated with pregnancy in all models were: female age, female BMI and history of infertility. Among nulligravid women with no history of infertility, the most important predictors were: female age, female BMI, male BMI, use of a fertility app, attempt time at study entry and perceived stress.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Reliance on self-reported predictor data could have introduced misclassification, which would likely be non-differential with respect to the pregnancy outcome given the prospective design. In addition, we cannot be certain that all relevant predictor variables were considered. Finally, though we validated the models using split-sample replication techniques, we did not conduct an external validation study.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Given a wide range of predictor data, machine learning algorithms can be leveraged to analyze epidemiologic data and predict the probability of conception with discrimination that exceeds earlier work.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The research was partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (under grants DMS-1664644, CNS-1645681 and IIS-1914792) and the National Institutes for Health (under grants R01 GM135930 and UL54 TR004130). In the last 3 years, L.A.W. has received in-kind donations for primary data collection in PRESTO from FertilityFriend.com, Kindara.com, Sandstone Diagnostics and Swiss Precision Diagnostics. L.A.W. also serves as a fibroid consultant to AbbVie, Inc. The other authors declare no competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Long-term reproductive outcomes in patients with unexplained infertility: follow-up of the Fast Track and Standard Treatment Trial participants

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate long-term reproductive outcomes in couples who were enrolled in a large randomized controlled trial that studied optimal treatment for unexplained infertility.

DESIGN

Telephone survey, administered between March 2019 and February 2020.

SETTING

Large urban university-affiliated fertility center.

PATIENT(S)

Couples who enrolled in the Fast Track and Standard Treatment Trial (FASTT).

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURE(S)

Number of live births, methods of conception, adoption, and satisfaction regarding family size.

RESULT(S)

Of the 503 couples enrolled in FASTT, 311 (61.8%) were contacted and 286 (56.9%) consented to participate. The mean age and follicle-stimulating hormone level at the time of enrollment in FASTT were 33.1 ± 3.2 years and 6.8 ± 2.2 mIU/mL, respectively, for those who participated in this study. The mean age at follow-up was 49.5 ± 3.4 years. Of the 286 women, 194 (67.8%) had a live birth during the trial and 225 (78.7%) continued to try to conceive after FASTT. Of those who tried to conceive without treatment, 101 of 157 (64.3%) had a successful live birth, whereas 12 (5.3%) women had a live birth via intrauterine insemination and 82 (36.4%) via autologous oocyte in vitro fertilization. Overall, 182 (80.9%) women achieved a live birth after FASTT.

CONCLUSION(S)

The majority of couples were able to achieve a live birth after FASTT. Only 19 (6.6%) never achieved a live birth during their reproductive years. Moving to treatment sooner allows the opportunity to achieve >1 live birth, which is associated with increased satisfaction regarding family size. This further supports access to care and insurance coverage for infertility treatment.

Sex ratio imbalance following blastocyst transfer is associated with ICSI but not with IVF: an analysis of 14,892 single embryo transfer cycles

PURPOSE

Assisted reproductive technology (ART) has an impact on secondary sex ratio (SSR), which is seemed to be elevated after blastocyst transfer (BT) but decreased following ICSI procedure. We aim to assess whether the higher SSR associated with BT could be influenced by fertilization method used.

METHODS

All consecutive IVF/ICSI cycles (fresh and frozen) involving single embryo transfer (SET) resulting in a live birth between 2015 and 2019 were retrospective analyzed. Logistic regression was used to model the effect on the SSR of maternal and specific ART characteristics.

RESULTS

Six thousand nine hundred twenty-two women were included with the crude SSR of 54.8%. The impact of BT on SSR is influenced by the fertilization method used. After adjustment for potential confounders, the SSR in the ICSI BT group was significantly higher when compared to ICSI cleavage-stage embryo SET (aOR 1.24; 95% CI 1.10-1.40, P < 0.001). However, this effect was not detected among SBT with IVF treatment (aOR 1.04; 95% CI 0.97-1.12, P = 0.260). Assessing blastocyst morphological parameters, high trophectoderm quality was significantly associated with elevated SSR (aOR 1.76, 95% CI 1.34-2.31 [A vs. C], and aOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.14-1.44 [B vs. C]). No significant difference was shown in expansion, inner cell mass, or days of blastocyst formation between male and female blastocysts.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of BT on SSR could be influenced by the fertilization method used. The higher SSR was observed after BT with ICSI procedures but not with IVF. Interpretation of the findings is limited by the potential for selection and confounding bias.

Intrauterine insemination + controlled ovarian hyperstimulation versus in vitro fertilisation in unexplained infertility: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

IUI + COH is widely used in cases of unexplained infertility before resorting to IVF. Debate continues about what should be the first-line treatment for couples with unexplained infertility.

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review assessed the relative efficacy of IUI + COH compared with IVF in couples with unexplained infertility.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched Medline, Embase, CIHNL, Pscy Info, and Cochrane Library from 1980 to November 2019.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Only RCTs published articles in full text with female patients aged 18-43 years and diagnosed with unexplained infertility were included.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors reviewed citations from primary search independently and any disagreement was resolved by mutual discussion and consultation with a third author.

MAIN RESULT

In total, eight RCTs were included. The quality of evidence was moderate to low due to inconsistency across the trials and imprecision. The pooled result showed that IVF was associated with a statistically significant higher live birth rate (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.01-2.32, P < 0.00001 I² = 86%) with no significant difference in multiple pregnancy rate or OHSS rate. Sensitivity analysis based on women's age and a history of previous IUI or IVF treatment showed no significant difference in the live birth rates (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.88-1.15, I² = 0%, 3 RCTs) in treatment-naïve women younger than 38 years. In women over 38 years, the live birth rates were significantly higher in the IVF group (RR 2.15, 95% CI 1.16-4.0, I² = 42%, 1 RCT).

CONCLUSION

Further research using a standardised treatment protocol and taking into account important prognostic variables and cumulative live birth rates from fresh IVF and all sibling frozen embryos is required to further guide clinical practice.

Lifestyle intervention prior to IVF does not improve embryo utilization rate and cumulative live birth rate in women with obesity: a nested cohort study

STUDY QUESTION

Does lifestyle intervention consisting of an energy-restricted diet, enhancement of physical activity and motivational counseling prior to IVF improve embryo utilization rate (EUR) and cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) in women with obesity?

SUMMARY ANSWER

A 6-month lifestyle intervention preceding IVF improved neither EUR nor CLBR in women with obesity in the first IVF treatment cycle where at least one oocyte was retrieved.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

A randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluating the efficacy of a low caloric liquid formula diet (LCD) preceding IVF in women with obesity was unable to demonstrate an effect of LCD on embryo quality and live birth rate: in this study, only one fresh embryo transfer (ET) or, in case of freeze-all strategy, the first transfer with frozen-thawed embryos was reported. We hypothesized that any effect on embryo quality of a lifestyle intervention in women with obesity undergoing IVF treatment is better revealed by EUR and CLBR after transfer of all fresh and frozen-thawed embryos.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This is a nested cohort study within an RCT, the LIFEstyle study. The original study examined whether a 6-month lifestyle intervention prior to infertility treatment in women with obesity improved live birth rate, compared to prompt infertility treatment within 24 months after randomization. In the original study between 2009 and 2012, 577 (three women withdrew informed consent) women with obesity and infertility were assigned to a lifestyle intervention followed by infertility treatment (n = 289) or to prompt infertility treatment (n = 285).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Only participants from the LIFEstyle study who received IVF treatment were eligible for the current analysis. In total, 137 participants (n = 58 in the intervention group and n = 79 in the control group) started the first cycle. In 25 participants, the first cycle was cancelled prior to oocyte retrieval mostly due to poor response. Sixteen participants started a second or third consecutive cycle. The first cycle with successful oocyte retrieval was used for this analysis, resulting in analysis of 51 participants in the intervention group and 72 participants in the control group. Considering differences in embryo scoring methods and ET day strategy between IVF centers, we used EUR as a proxy for embryo quality. EUR was defined as the proportion of inseminated/injected oocytes per cycle that was transferred or cryopreserved as an embryo. Analysis was performed per cycle and per oocyte/embryo. CLBR was defined as the percentage of participants with at least one live birth from the first fresh and subsequent frozen-thawed ET(s). In addition, we calculated the Z-score for singleton neonatal birthweight and compared these outcomes between the two groups.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The overall mean age was 31.6 years and the mean BMI was 35.4 ± 3.2 kg/m² in the intervention group, and 34.9 ± 2.9 kg/m² in the control group. The weight change at 6 months was in favor of the intervention group (mean difference in kg vs the control group: −3.14, 95% CI: −5.73 to −0.56). The median (Q25; Q75) number of oocytes retrieved was 4.00 (2.00; 8.00) in the intervention group versus 6.00 (4.00; 9.75) in the control group, and was not significantly different, as was the number of oocytes inseminated/injected (4.00 [2.00; 8.00] vs 6.00 [3.00; 8.75]), normal fertilized embryos (2.00 [0.50; 5.00] vs 3.00 [1.00; 5.00]) and the number of cryopreserved embryos (2.00 [1.25; 4.75] vs 2.00 [1.00; 4.00]). The median (Q25; Q75) EUR was 33.3% (12.5%; 60.0%) in the intervention group and 33.3% (16.7%; 50.0%) in the control group in the per cycle analysis (adjusted B: 2.7%, 95% CI: −8.6% to 14.0%). In the per oocyte/embryo analysis, in total, 280 oocytes were injected or inseminated in the intervention group, 113 were utilized (transferred or cryopreserved, EUR = 40.4%); in the control group, EUR was 30.8% (142/461). The lifestyle intervention did not significantly improve EUR (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.36, 95% CI: 0.94–1.98) in the per oocyte/embryo analysis, taking into account the interdependency of the oocytes per participant. CLBR was not significantly different between the intervention group and the control group after adjusting for type of infertility (male factor and unexplained) and smoking (27.5% vs 22.2%, adjusted OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.43–2.47). Singleton neonatal birthweight and Z-score were not significantly different between the two groups.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

This study is a nested cohort study within an RCT, and no power calculation was performed. The randomization was not stratified for indicated treatment, and although we corrected our analyses for baseline differences, there may be residual confounding. The limited absolute weight loss and the short duration of the lifestyle intervention might be insufficient to affect EUR and CLBR.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our data do not support the hypothesis of a beneficial short-term effect of lifestyle intervention on EUR and CLBR after IVF in women with obesity, although more studies are needed as there may be a potential clinically relevant effect on EUR.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The study was supported by a grant from ZonMw, the Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development (50-50110-96-518). A.H. has received an unrestricted educational grant from Ferring pharmaceuticals BV, The Netherlands. B.W.J.M. is supported by an NHMRC Investigator grant (GNT1176437). B.W.J.M. reports consultancy for Guerbet, has been a member of the ObsEva advisory board and holds Stock options for ObsEva. B.W.J.M. has received research funding from Guerbet, Ferring and Merck. F.J.M.B. reports personal fees from membership of the external advisory board for Merck Serono and a research support grant from Merck Serono, outside the submitted work.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The LIFEstyle RCT was registered at the Dutch trial registry (NTR 1530). https://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=1530.

A concise infertility work-up results in fewer pregnancies

STUDY QUESTION

Is pregnancy success rate after a concise infertility work-up the same as pregnancy success rate after the traditional extensive infertility work-up?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The ongoing pregnancy rate within a follow-up of 1 year after a concise infertility work-up is significantly lower than the pregnancy success rate after the traditional and extensive infertility work-up.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Based on cost-effectiveness studies, which have mainly focused on diagnosis, infertility work-up has become less comprehensive. Many centres have even adopted a one-stop approach to their infertility work-up.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

We performed a historically controlled cohort study. In 2012 and 2013 all new infertile couples (n = 795) underwent an extensive infertility work-up (group A). In 2014 and 2015, all new infertile couples (n = 752) underwent a concise infertility work-up (group B). The follow-up period was 1 year for both groups. Complete follow-up was available for 99.0% of couples in group A and 97.5% in group B.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

The extensive infertility work-up consisted of history taking, a gynaecological ultrasound scan, semen analysis, ultrasonographic cycle monitoring, a timed postcoital test, a timed progesterone and chlamydia antibody titre. A hysterosalpingography (HSG) was advised routinely. The concise infertility work-up was mainly based on history taking, a gynaecological ultrasound scan and semen analysis. A HSG was only performed if tubal pathology was suspected or before the start of IUI. Laparoscopy and hormonal tests were only performed if indicated. Couples were treated according to the diagnosis with either expectant management (if the Hunault prognostic score was >30%), ovulation induction (in case of ovulation disorders), IUI in natural cycles (in case of cervical factor), IUI in stimulated cycles (if the Hunault prognostic score was <30%) or IVF/ICSI (in case of tubal factor, advanced female age, severe male factor and if other treatments remained unsuccessful). The primary outcomes were time to pregnancy and the ongoing pregnancy rates in both groups. The secondary outcomes were the number of investigations, the distribution of diagnoses made, the first treatment (started) after infertility work-up and the mode of conception.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The descriptive data, such as age, duration of infertility, type of infertility and lifestyle habits, in both groups were comparable. In group A, more than twice the number of infertility investigations were performed, compared to group B. An HSG was made less frequently in group B (33% versus 42%) and at a later stage. A Kaplan-Meier curve shows a shorter time to pregnancy in group A. Also, a significantly higher overall ongoing pregnancy rate within a follow-up of 1 year was found in group A (58.7% versus 46.8%, respectively, P < 0.001). In group A, more couples conceived during the infertility work-up (14.7% versus 6.5%, respectively, P < 0.05). The diagnosis cervical infertility could only be made in group A (9.3%). The diagnosis unexplained infertility differed between groups, at 23.5% in group A and 32.2% in group B (P < 0.001).

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

This was a historically controlled cohort study; introduction of bias cannot be ruled out. The follow-up rate was similar in the two groups and therefore could not explain the differences in pregnancy rate.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Re-introduction of an extensive infertility work-up should be considered as it may lead to higher ongoing pregnancy rates within a year. The therapeutic effects of HSG and timing of intercourse may improve the fertility chance. This finding should be verified in a randomized controlled trial.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

No funding was obtained for this study. No conflicts of interest were declared.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Transvaginal hydrolaparoscopy versus hysterosalpingography in the work-up for subfertility: a randomized controlled trial

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is transvaginal hydrolaparoscopy (THL) non-inferior to hysterosalpingography (HSG) as a first-line tubal patency test in subfertile women in predicting the chance of conception leading to live birth?

DESIGN

A multicentre, randomized controlled trial in four teaching hospitals in the Netherlands, which randomized subfertile women scheduled for tubal patency testing to either THL or HSG as a first-line tubal patency test. The primary outcome was conception leading to live birth within 24 months after randomization.

RESULTS

A total of 149 women were randomized to THL and 151 to HSG. From the intention-to-treat population, 83 women from the THL group (58.5%) conceived and delivered a live born child within 24 months after randomization compared with 82 women (55.4%) in the HSG group (difference 3.0%, 95% CI -8.3 to 14.4). Time to conception leading to live birth was not statistically different between groups. Miscarriage occurred in 16 (11.3%) women in the THL group, versus 20 (13.5%) women in the HSG group (RR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.34 to 1.32, P = 0.237), and multiple pregnancies occurred in 12 (8.4%) women in the THL group compared with 19 (12.8%) women in the HSG group (RR = 0.84, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.55, P = 0.58). Ectopic pregnancy was diagnosed in two women in the HSG group (1.4%) and none in the THL group (P = 0.499).

CONCLUSION

In a preselected group of subfertile women with a low risk of tubal pathology, use of THL was not inferior to HSG as a first-line test for predicting conception leading to live birth.

Intrauterine insemination with ovarian stimulation is a successful step prior to assisted reproductive technology for couples with unexplained infertility

The present retrospective cohort study analysed data of couples with unexplained infertility who underwent two to three intrauterine insemination (IUI) cycles. The inclusion criteria were age 20-40 years, failure to conceive for at least two years of unprotected intercourse, ovulation, normal semen analysis, and tubal patency. Total of 578 IUI cycles of 286 couples with unexplained infertility were included in the final analyses. The mean age and duration of infertility of the study population were 28.8 ± 5.1 and 5.2 ± 3.4 years, respectively. The clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) and live birth rate (LBR) per cycle were 16.6 and 13.1%, respectively. The cumulative CPR following two to three IUI cycles was 33.5% and the cumulative LBR was 26.5% for the entire cohort. The duration of infertility was significantly shorter in women whose IUI attempt were successful (p = .036). Up to three cycles of IUI with ovarian stimulation seems as an effective first-line treatment modality in unexplained infertility.IMPACT STATEMENTWhat is already known on this subject? Cont rolled ovarian stimulation combined with intrauterine insemination (IUI) is a common infertility treatment as a low-cost, less-invasive alternative to in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and was approved as a first line treatment option for unexplained infertility However, the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline states that IUI is not recommended to couples with unexplained infertility, male factor and mild endometriosis, unless the couples have religious, cultural or social objections to proceed with IVF.What do the results of this study add? Up to three IUI cycles with ovarian stimulation can be considered as an effective treatment modality in unexplained infertility even in couples who could not achieve pregnancy by expectant management for two years.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? The clinicians should reconsider the NICE recommendation of IVF in the light of recent studies including ours which recommend IUI together when dealing couples with unexplained infertility.

Birthweight and other perinatal outcomes of singletons conceived after assisted reproduction compared to natural conceived singletons in couples with unexplained subfertility: follow-up of two randomized clinical trials

STUDY QUESTION

Does assisted reproduction, such as ovarian stimulation and/or laboratory procedures, have impact on perinatal outcomes of singleton live births compared to natural conception in couples with unexplained subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Compared to natural conception, singletons born after intrauterine insemination with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) had a lower birthweight, while singletons born after IVF had comparable birthweights, in couples with unexplained subfertility.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Singletons conceived by assisted reproduction have different perinatal outcomes such as low birthweight and a higher risk of premature birth than naturally conceived singletons. This might be due to the assisted reproduction, such as laboratory procedures or the ovarian stimulation, or to an intrinsic factor in couples with subfertility.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We performed a prospective cohort study using the follow-up data of two randomized clinical trials performed in couples with unexplained subfertility. We evaluated perinatal outcomes of 472 live birth singletons conceived after assisted reproduction or after natural conception within the time horizon of the studies.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

To assess the possible impact of ovarian stimulation we compared the singletons conceived after IUI with FSH or clomiphene citrate (CC) and IVF in a modified natural cycle (IVF-MNC) or standard IVF with single embryo transfer (IVF-SET) to naturally conceived singletons in the same cohorts. To further look into the possible effect of the laboratory procedures, we put both IUI and IVF groups together into IUI-OS and IVF and compared both to singletons born after natural conception. We only included singletons conceived after fresh embryo transfers. The main outcome was birthweight presented as absolute weight in grams and gestational age- and gender-adjusted percentiles. We calculated differences in birthweight using regression analyses adjusted for maternal age, BMI, smoking, parity, duration of subfertility and child gender.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

In total, there were 472 live birth singletons. Of the 472 singleton pregnancies, 209 were conceived after IUI-OS (136 with FSH and 73 with CC as ovarian stimulation), 138 after IVF (50 after IVF-MNC and 88 after IVF-SET) and 125 were conceived naturally.Singletons conceived following IUI-FSH and IUI-CC both had lower birthweights compared to naturally conceived singletons (adjusted difference IUI-FSH -156.3 g, 95% CI -287.9 to -24.7; IUI-CC -160.3 g, 95% CI -316.7 to -3.8). When we compared IVF-MNC and IVF-SET to naturally conceived singletons, no significant difference was found (adjusted difference IVF-MNC 75.8 g, 95% CI -102.0 to 253.7; IVF-SET -10.6 g, 95% CI -159.2 to 138.1). The mean birthweight percentile was only significantly lower in the IUI-FSH group (-7.0 percentile, 95% CI -13.9 to -0.2). The IUI-CC and IVF-SET group had a lower mean percentile and the IVF-MNC group a higher mean percentile, but these groups were not significant different compared to the naturally conceived group (IUI-CC -5.1 percentile, 95% CI -13.3 to 3.0; IVF-MNC 4.4 percentile, 95% CI -4.9 to 13.6; IVF-SET -1.3 percentile, 95% CI -9.1 to 6.4).Looking at the laboratory process that took place, singletons conceived following IUI-OS had lower birthweights than naturally conceived singletons (adjusted difference -157.7 g, 95% CI -277.4 to -38.0). The IVF group had comparable birthweights with the naturally conceived group (adjusted difference 20.9 g, 95% CI -110.8 to 152.6). The mean birthweight percentile was significantly lower in the IUI-OS group compared to the natural group (-6.4 percentile, 95% CI -12.6 to -0.1). The IVF group was comparable (0.7 percentile, 95% CI -6.1 to 7.6).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The results are limited by the number of cases. The data were collected prospectively alongside the randomized controlled trials, but analyzed as treated.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our data suggest IUI in a stimulated cycle may have a negative impact on the birthweight of the child and possibly on pre-eclampsia. Further research should look into the effect of different methods of ovarian stimulation on placenta pathology and pre-eclampsia in couples with unexplained subfertility using naturally conceived singletons in the unexplained population as a reference.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

Both initial trials were supported by a grant from ZonMW, the Dutch Organization for Health Research and Development (INeS 120620027, SUPER 80-83600-98-10192). The INeS study also had a grant from Zorgverzekeraars Nederland, the Dutch association of healthcare insurers (09-003). B.W.J.M. is supported by an NHMRC investigator Grant (GNT1176437) and reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck Merck KGaA, Guerbet and iGenomix, outside the submitted work. A.H. reports grants from Ferring Pharmaceutical company (the Netherlands), outside the submitted work. F.J.M.B. receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Merck Serono (the Netherlands), Ferring Pharmaceutics BV (the Netherlands) and Gedeon Richter (Belgium), he receives personal fees from educational activities for Ferring BV (the Netherlands) and for advisory and consultancy work for Roche and he receives research support grants from Merck Serono and Ferring Pharmaceutics BV, outside the submitted work. The remaining authors have nothing to disclose.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

INeS study Trial NL915 (NTR939); SUPER Trial NL3895 (NTR4057).

A systematic review of the quality of clinical prediction models in in vitro fertilisation

STUDY QUESTION

What are the best-quality clinical prediction models in IVF (including ICSI) treatment to inform clinicians and their patients of their chance of success?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The review recommends the McLernon post-treatment model for predicting the cumulative chance of live birth over and up to six complete cycles of IVF.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Prediction models in IVF have not found widespread use in routine clinical practice. This could be due to their limited predictive accuracy and clinical utility. A previous systematic review of IVF prediction models, published a decade ago and which has never been updated, did not assess the methodological quality of existing models nor provided recommendations for the best-quality models for use in clinical practice.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The electronic databases OVID MEDLINE, OVID EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched systematically for primary articles published from 1978 to January 2019 using search terms on the development and/or validation (internal and external) of models in predicting pregnancy or live birth. No language or any other restrictions were applied.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The PRISMA flowchart was used for the inclusion of studies after screening. All studies reporting on the development and/or validation of IVF prediction models were included. Articles reporting on women who had any treatment elements involving donor eggs or sperm and surrogacy were excluded. The CHARMS checklist was used to extract and critically appraise the methodological quality of the included articles. We evaluated models' performance by assessing their c-statistics and plots of calibration in studies and assessed correct reporting by calculating the percentage of the TRIPOD 22 checklist items met in each study.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

We identified 33 publications reporting on 35 prediction models. Seventeen articles had been published since the last systematic review. The quality of models has improved over time with regard to clinical relevance, methodological rigour and utility. The percentage of TRIPOD score for all included studies ranged from 29 to 95%, and the c-statistics of all externally validated studies ranged between 0.55 and 0.77. Most of the models predicted the chance of pregnancy/live birth for a single fresh cycle. Six models aimed to predict the chance of pregnancy/live birth per individual treatment cycle, and three predicted more clinically relevant outcomes such as cumulative pregnancy/live birth. The McLernon (pre- and post-treatment) models predict the cumulative chance of live birth over multiple complete cycles of IVF per woman where a complete cycle includes all fresh and frozen embryo transfers from the same episode of ovarian stimulation. McLernon models were developed using national UK data and had the highest TRIPOD score, and the post-treatment model performed best on external validation.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

To assess the reporting quality of all included studies, we used the TRIPOD checklist, but many of the earlier IVF prediction models were developed and validated before the formal TRIPOD reporting was published in 2015. It should also be noted that two of the authors of this systematic review are authors of the McLernon model article. However, we feel we have conducted our review and made our recommendations using a fair and transparent systematic approach.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This study provides a comprehensive picture of the evolving quality of IVF prediction models. Clinicians should use the most appropriate model to suit their patients' needs. We recommend the McLernon post-treatment model as a counselling tool to inform couples of their predicted chance of success over and up to six complete cycles. However, it requires further external validation to assess applicability in countries with different IVF practices and policies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The study was funded by the Elphinstone Scholarship Scheme and the Assisted Reproduction Unit, University of Aberdeen. Both D.J.M. and S.B. are authors of the McLernon model article and S.B. is Editor in Chief of Human Reproduction Open. They have completed and submitted the ICMJE forms for Disclosure of potential Conflicts of Interest. The other co-authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

The predicted probability of live birth in In Vitro Fertilization varies during important stages throughout the treatment: analysis of 114,882 first cycles

RESEARCH QUESTION

How much the variability in patients' response during in vitro fertilization (IVF) may add to the initial predicted prognosis based only on patients' basal characteristics?

DESIGN

Anonymous data were obtained from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA). Data involving 114,882 stimulated fresh IVF cycles were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression was used to develop the models.

RESULTS

Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate accuracy in all of the three models; discrimination of the model based only on basal patients' characteristics (AUROC 0.61) was markedly improved adding information of number of embryos (AUROC 0.65) and, mostly, number of oocytes (AUROC 0.66).

CONCLUSIONS

The addition to prediction models of parameters such as the number of embryos obtained and especially the number of oocytes retrieved can statistically significantly improve the overall prediction of live birth probabilities when based on only basal patients' characteristics. This seems to be particularly true for women after the first IVF cycle. Since ovarian response affects the probability of live birth in IVF, it is highly recommended to add markers of ovarian response to models based on basal characteristics to increase their predictive ability.

Declined expressing mRNA of beta-defensin 108 from epididymis is associated with decreased sperm motility in blue fox (Vulpes lagopus)

BACKGROUND

Fecundity is important for farm blue fox (Vulpes lagopus), who with asthenospermia have be a problem in some of farms in China. A key symptom of asthenospermia is decreased sperm motility. The decreased secreting beta-defensin108 (vBD108) of blue fox is speculated be related to asthenospermia. To clarify this idea, the mRNA expression of vBD108 in testis and epididymis of blue foxes with asthenospermia were detected and compared to the healthy one. The antibody was prepared and analyzed by immunohistochemistry.

RESULTS

The vBD108 in testis and epididymis was found both in blue fox with asthenospermia and healthy group by the method of immunohistochemistry. The expression of vBD108 mRNA in testes (P < 0.05) and epididymal corpus (P < 0.0001) in asthenospermia group was lower than that in healthy group.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggested that vBD108 deficiency may related to blue fox asthenospermia. Meanwhile, the study on the blue fox vBD108 provides a hopeful direction to explore the pathogenesis of blue fox asthenospermia in the future.

Does the effectiveness of IUI in couples with unexplained subfertility depend on their prognosis of natural conception? A replication of the H2Oil study

STUDY QUESTION

Can we replicate the finding that the benefit of IUI-ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) compared to expectant management for couples with unexplained subfertility depends on the prognosis of natural conception?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The estimated benefit of IUI-OS did not depend on the prognosis of natural conception but did depend on when treatment was started after diagnosis, with starting IUI-OS later yielding a larger absolute and relative benefit of treatment.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IUI-OS is often the first-line treatment for couples with unexplained subfertility. Two randomized controlled trials (RCTs) compared IUI-OS to expectant management using different thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception as inclusion criteria and found different results. In a previous study (a Dutch national cohort), it was found that the benefit of IUI-OS compared to expectant management seemed dependent on the prognosis of natural conception, but this finding warrants replication.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

We conducted a secondary analysis of the H2Oil study (n = 1119), a multicentre RCT that evaluated the effect of oil-based contrast versus water-based contrast during hysterosalpingography (HSG). Couples were randomized before HSG and followed up for 3-5 years. We selected couples with unexplained subfertility who received HSG and had follow-up or pregnancy data available. Follow-up was censored at the start of IVF, after the last IUI cycle or at last contact and was truncated at a maximum of 18 months after the fertility workup.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

The endpoint was time to conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy. We used the sequential Cox approach comparing in each month the ongoing pregnancy rates over the next 6 months of couples who started IUI-OS to couples who did not. We calculated the prognosis of natural conception for individual couples, updated this over consecutive failed cycles and evaluated whether prognosis modified the effect of starting IUI-OS. We corrected for known predictors of conception using inverse probability weighting.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Data from 975 couples were available. There were 587 couples who received at least one IUI-OS cycle within 18 months after HSG of whom 221 conceived leading to an ongoing pregnancy (rate: 0.74 per couple per year over a median follow-up for IUI of 5 months). The median period between HSG and starting IUI-OS was 4 months. Out of 388 untreated couples, 299 conceived naturally (rate: 0.56 per couple per year over a median follow-up of 4 months). After creating our mimicked trial datasets, starting IUI-OS was associated with a higher chance of ongoing pregnancy by a pooled, overall hazard ratio of 1.50 (95% CI: 1.19-1.89) compared to expectant management. We did not find strong evidence that the effect of treatment was modified by a couple's prognosis of achieving natural conception (Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) decreased by 1 point). The effect of treatment was dependent on when couples started IUI-OS (AIC decreased by more than 2 points). The patterns of estimated absolute chances over time for couples with increasingly better prognoses were different from the previous study but the finding that starting later yields a larger benefit of treatment was similar. We found IUI-OS increased the absolute chance of pregnancy by at least 5% compared to expectant management. The absolute chance of pregnancy after IUI-OS seems less variable between couples and starting times of treatment than the absolute chance after expectant management.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

This is a secondary analysis, as the H2Oil trial was not designed with this research question in mind. Owing to sample size restrictions, it remained difficult to distinguish between the ranges of prognoses in which true benefit was found.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

We replicated the finding that starting IUI-OS later after diagnosis yields a larger absolute and relative benefit of treatment. We did not replicate the dependency of the effect of IUI-OS on the prognosis of natural conception and could not identify clear thresholds for the prognosis of natural conception when IUI-OS was and/or was not effective. Because many of these couples still have good chances of natural conception at the time of diagnosis, we suggest clinicians should advise couples to delay the start of IUI-OS for several months to avoid unnecessary treatment.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

The H2Oil study (NTR 3270) was an investigator-initiated study that was funded by the two academic institutions (AMC and VUmc) of the Amsterdam UMC. The follow-up study (NTR 6577) was also an investigator-initiated study with funding by Guerbet, France. The funders had no role in study design, collection, analysis and interpretation of the data. B.W.M. is supported by an Investigator grant (GNT1176437) from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). K.D. reports receiving travel and speaker fees from Guerbet. B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck, Merck KGaA, iGenomix and Guerbet. V.M. reports receiving travel- and speaker fees as well as research grants from Guerbet.

Can the use of diagnostic and prognostic categorisation tailor the need for assisted reproductive technology in infertile couples?

BACKGROUND

The complications associated with in vitro fertilisation (IVF) for both the offspring and mother, and its high cost make it essential to tailor the technology to those infertile couples who truly benefit from it.

AIMS

To determine whether a simple prognostic algorithm could discriminate between couples who require immediate fertility treatments and couples in whom less invasive strategies should be offered first.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, couples were classified into six groups based on the medical necessity of IVF and their prognosis for natural conception: (i) tubal/severe semen factor mandating immediate IVF due to the very low chance of natural conception; (ii) pure anovulation infertility; (iii) female age ≥39 years; and (iv) unexplained/mild male infertility (no indication for immediate treatment) with (4A) good, (4B) moderate or (4C) poor prognosis of natural conception, as per an existing, validated prognostic model. For each group, we constructed Kaplan-Meier curves to measure natural conception and the effect of fertility treatment.

RESULTS

The 12 months cumulative live birth rate for couples with unexplained or mild male infertility and poor prognosis increased from 1% without treatment to 35% after treatment (P < 0.001). In contrast, couples with good prognosis experienced a statistically insignificant increase in their cumulative live birth rate from 40% to 56% (P = 0.07). This demonstrates that a prognostic model could predict a couple's chances of natural conception and the benefit they derive from treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

This prognostic mode allows fertility treatment to be individually tailored to reduce unnecessary IVF without compromising fertility chances.

Treatment Strategies for Unexplained Infertility

Unexplained infertility is a common diagnosis among couples with infertility. Pragmatic treatment options in these couples are directed at trying to improve chances to conceive, and consequently intrauterine insemination (IUI) with ovarian stimulation and in vitro fertilization (IVF) are standard clinical practice, while expectant management remains an important alternative. While evidence on IVF or IUI with ovarian stimulation versus expectant management was inconclusive, these interventions seem more effective in couples with a poor prognosis of natural conception. Strategies such as strict cancellation criteria and single-embryo transfer aim to reduce multiple pregnancies without compromising cumulative live birth. We propose a prognosis-based approach to manage couples with unexplained infertility so as to expose less couples to unnecessary interventions and less mothers and children to the potential adverse effects of ovarian stimulation or laboratory procedures.

How and Why to Define Unexplained Infertility?

Unexplained infertility represents up to 30% of all cases of infertility. It is a diagnosis of exclusion, where no cause for infertility may be identified in the investigation of the couple, be it anovulation, fallopian tube blockage, or severe male factor. Unexplained infertility therefore cannot be considered a diagnosis to which a specific treatment is directed, rather that it indicates a failure to reach a diagnosis of the true cause of infertility. In this review, we explore the evidence base and potential limitations of the current routine infertility assessment. We also aim to highlight the importance of considering the prognosis of each individual couple through the process of assessment and propose a reconsidered approach to treatment, targeted to the prognosis rather than the diagnosis. Ultimately, a better understanding of the mechanisms of infertility will reduce the number of couples diagnosed with "unexplained" infertility.

IVF and IUI in couples with unexplained infertility (FIIX study): study protocol of a non-inferiority randomized controlled trial

STUDY QUESTIONS

In couples with unexplained infertility and a poor prognosis of natural conception, are four cycles of IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) non-inferior to one completed cycle of IVF for the outcome of cumulative live birth? Are four cycles of IUI-OS associated with a lower cost per live birth compared to one completed cycle of IVF? Will four cycles of IUI-OS followed by one complete cycle of IVF result in as many live births at lower cost per live birth, than two complete cycles of IVF? Will four cycles of IUI-OS followed by two complete cycles of IVF result in more live births at lower cost per live birth, than two complete cycles of IVF alone?

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IUI is widely used in the USA, the UK and Europe as a low cost, less invasive alternative to IVF for couples with unexplained infertility. Although three to six cycles of IUI were comparable to IVF in the three major studies carried out to date, gonadotrophin ovarian stimulation was used in the majority of cases, and this also resulted in a high multiple pregnancy rate in some studies. Ovarian stimulation with clomiphene citrate is known to have lower multiple pregnancy rates.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

The FIIX study is a multicentre, open label, parallel, pragmatic non-inferiority randomized controlled trial of 580 couples with unexplained infertility comparing four cycles of IUI-OS with clomiphene citrate and one completed cycle of IVF. Variable block randomization stratified by age and clinic with electronic allocation will be used.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Couples with poor prognosis for natural conception and who are eligible for publicly funded fertility treatment in six fertility clinics in New Zealand.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

Auckland Medical Research Fund (3718892/1119003), A+ Trust, Auckland District Health Board (A + 8479), Maurice and Phyllis Paykel Trust (3718514). No competing interests.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ACTRN12619001003167.

TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE

15 July 2019

DATE OF FIRST PATIENT’S ENROLMENT

02/08/2019

Cost-effectiveness of medically assisted reproduction or expectant management for unexplained subfertility: when to start treatment?

STUDY QUESTION

Over a time period of 3 years, which order of expectant management (EM), IUI with ovarian stimulation (IUI-OS) and IVF is the most cost-effective for couples with unexplained subfertility with the female age below 38 years?

SUMMARY ANSWER

If a live birth is considered worth €32 000 or less, 2 years of EM followed by IVF was the most cost-effective, whereas above €32 000 this was 1 year of EM, 1 year of IUI-OS and then 1 year of IVF.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

IUI-OS and IVF are commonly used fertility treatments for unexplained subfertility although many couples can conceive naturally, as no identifiable barrier to conception could be found by definition. Few countries have guidelines on when to proceed with medically assisted reproduction (MAR), mostly based on the expected probability of live birth after treatment, but there is a lack of evidence to support the strategies proposed by these guidelines. The increased uptake of IUI-OS and IVF over the past decades and costs related to reimbursement of these treatments are pressing concerns to health service providers. For MAR to remain affordable, sustainable and a responsible use of public funds, guidance is needed on the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for unexplained subfertility, including EM.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We developed a decision analytic Markov model that follows couples with unexplained subfertility of which the woman is under 38 years of age for a time period of 3 years from completion of the fertility workup onwards. We divided the time axis of 3 years into three separate periods, each comprising 1 year. The model was based on contemporary evidence, most notably the dynamic prediction model for natural conception, which was combined with MAR treatment effects from a network meta-analysis on randomized controlled trials. We changed the order of options for managing unexplained subfertility for the 1 year periods to yield five different treatment policies in total: IVF-EM-EM (immediate IVF), EM-IVF-EM (delayed IVF), EM-EM-IVF (postponed IVF), IUIOS-IVF-EM (immediate IUI-OS) and EM-IUIOS-IVF (delayed IUI-OS).

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

The main outcomes per policy over the 3-year period were the probability of live birth, the average treatment and delivery costs, the probability of multiple pregnancy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and finally, which policy yields the highest net benefit in which costs for a policy were deducted from the health effects, i.e. live births gained. We chose the Dutch societal perspective, but the model can be easily modified for other locations or other perspectives. The probability of live birth after EM was taken from the dynamic prediction model for natural conception and updated for Years 2 and 3. The relative effects of IUI-OS and IVF in terms of odds ratios, taken from the network meta-analysis, were applied to the probability of live birth after EM. We applied standard discounting procedures for economic analyses for Years 2 and 3. The uncertainty around effectiveness, costs and other parameters was assessed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which we drew values from distributions and repeated this procedure 20 000 times. In addition, we changed model assumptions to assess their influence on our results.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

From IVF-EM-EM to EM-IUIOS-IVF, the probability of live birth varied from approximately 54-64% and the average costs from approximately €4000 to €9000. The policies IVF-EM-EM and EM-IVF-EM were dominated by EM-EM-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. The policy IUIOS-IVF-EM was dominated by EM-IUIOS-IVF as the latter yielded a higher cumulative probability of live birth at a lower cost. After removal of policies that were dominated, the ICER for EM-IUIOS-IVF was approximately €31 000 compared to EM-EM-IVF. The range of ICER values between the lowest 25% and highest 75% of simulation replications was broad. The net benefit curve showed that when we assume a live birth to be worth approximately €20 000 or less, the policy EM-EM-IVF had the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit. Between €20 000 and €50 000 monetary value per live birth, it was uncertain whether EM-EM-IVF was better than EM-IUIOS-IVF, with the turning point of €32 000. When we assume a monetary value per live birth over €50 000, the policy with the highest probability to achieve the highest net benefit was EM-IUIOS-IVF. Results for subgroups with different baseline prognoses showed the same policies dominated and the same two policies that were the most likely to achieve the highest net benefit but at different threshold values for the assumed monetary value per live birth.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our model focused on population level and was thus based on average costs for the average number of cycles conducted. We also based the model on a number of key assumptions. We changed model assumptions to assess the influence of these assumptions on our results. The change in relative effectiveness of IVF over time was found to be highly influential on results and their interpretation.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

EM-EM-IVF and EM-IUIOS-IVF followed by IVF were the most cost-effective policies. The choice depends on the monetary value assigned to a live birth. The results of our study can be used in discussions between clinicians, couples and policy makers to decide on a sustainable treatment protocol based on the probability of live birth, the costs and the limitations of MAR treatment.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This work was supported by the ZonMw Doelmatigheidsonderzoek (80-85200-98-91072). The funder had no role in the design, conduct or reporting of this work. B.W.M. is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548). B.W.M. reports consultancy for ObsEva, Merck KGaA and Guerbet and travel and research support from ObsEva, Merck and Guerbet.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.