Analysing the difference due to risk and demographic factors for incidence or mortality

Temporal Decomposition Analysis of Noncommunicable Disease Burden: The Interplay of Population Aging, Population Growth, and Low Physical Activity, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

To analyze global trends in the noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) burden attributable to low physical activity, considering the impacts of population aging and growth.

METHOD

Based on the Global Burden Disease 2019 Study, the NCDs-related death and disability-adjusted life years attributable to low physical activity (defined as <3000 metabolic equivalent-min/wk) were obtained from 2010 to 2019. The average annual percent change was calculated using the joinpoint analysis. Decomposition analysis was applied to assess the separated contributions of 3 components (population aging, population growth, and death change due to all other factors) on the overall change in NCDs death attributed to low physical activity.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, the average annual percent change of age-standardized rates of NCDs due to low physical activity was -0.09% for death and -0.06% for disability-adjusted life years. However, the global absolute number of deaths from NCDs attributable to low physical activity increased from 672,215 to 831,502, and disability-adjusted life years rose from 12,813,793 to 15,747,938. This rise was largely driven by population aging and growth, contributing to a 13.0% and 14.7% increase, respectively. The most significant impact of population aging on NCD deaths was observed in high-middle socio-demographic index countries (17.6%), whereas population growth had the greatest effect in low socio-demographic index countries (24.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in NCDs death rates attributed to low physical activity is insufficient to counteract the effects of population aging and growth. Targeted interventions for physical activity promotion should focus on the older population with special attention to diseases most sensitive to physical inactivity.

Projection of future gastric cancer incidence and health-care service demand by geographic area in Kanagawa, Japan

Projections of future gastric cancer incidence and the demand for health-care services for gastric cancer patients by geographic area will assist local authorities in determining health-care needs, allocating medical resources, and planning services. This study aims to project the future incidence of gastric cancer, estimate the number of patients per medical institution, and decompose the net changes in cases to assess the impact of population aging by geographic area. Our projections are based on population-based cancer registry data, census data from 2000 to 2020, and the projected population for 2025-2045 in Kanagawa, Japan. We classified Kanagawa into urban, town, outer city, and rural areas based on geographic and population features. The number of medical institutions providing gastric cancer treatment was used to estimate the number of patients per medical institution. We projected a decrease of 25%, 52%, and 5% in gastric cancer cases in towns, outer cities, and rural areas from 2020 to 2045, respectively. However, cases are expected to increase by 9% in urban areas, primarily due to population aging. The annual number of gastric cancer patients per medical institution in urban areas is expected to increase from 54 to 59, while numbers in other areas are predicted to decline from 2020 to 2045. Our long-term projections indicate that the number of older gastric cancer patients will continue to increase in urban areas. While current measures effectively reduce gastric cancer risk, they need to be revised to address the impact of population aging.

Global Deaths Associated with Population Aging - 1990-2019

Introduction

Published global and country-specific deaths associated with population aging are based on decomposition methods that have significant limitations.

Methods

A new decomposition method was developed and its performance was compared with two frequently used methods. The new method was employed to calculate global deaths associated with population aging between 1990 and 2019, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Results

Compared to the two frequently-used existing methods, the new decomposition method generated results that are more consistent with logical expectations. Using the new method, the number of global deaths associated with population aging between 1990 and 2019 was 23.3 million. Upper middle-income countries accounted for 43% of global deaths related to population aging. The most deaths associated with population aging occurred from three types of disease: ischemic heart disease (5.0 million), stroke (3.8 million), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (2.2 million). China, India, Japan, the United States of America, and Brazil had the largest number of deaths related to population aging. Loss related to population aging was completely or partially counteracted by the reduction in mortality in 195 of the 200 countries and territories experiencing population aging (97.5%).

Conclusions

The new decomposition method achieves more justifiable results associated with population aging than existing methods. Globally, population aging was associated with a substantial increase of deaths between 1990 and 2019, but it was totally or partially offset by the reduction in mortality in 97.5% of countries and territories.

Trends in incidence of invasive vaginal cancer in France from 1990 to 2018 and survival of recently diagnosed women - A population-based study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to analyze trends in the incidence of vaginal cancer in France over a 28-year period and to present survival for recently-diagnosed women.

METHODS

French cancer registries provided data on invasive vaginal cancers diagnosed from 1990 to 2015 and followed up through June 2018. Trends in incidence were analyzed using a Poisson model with a bidimensional penalized spline of age and year at diagnosis. Net survival analysis was restricted to recently-diagnosed cases (2010-2015) and used a novel approach based on a bidimensional penalized spline of age and time-since-diagnosis to model excess mortality hazard.

RESULTS

With 162 new cases estimated in France in 2018, vaginal cancer represented 0.9 % of genital cancers in French women. In 2018, the world population age-standardized incidence rate was 0.2 per 100,000 person-years, median age at diagnosis was 75 years. The standardized incidence rate decreased significantly by 3 % per year (95 % CI, -3.8; -2.2) between 1990 and 2018 (0.4 cases per 100,000 person-year in 1990, vs 0.2 in 2018). Age-standardized net survival at 1 and 5 years after diagnosis was respectively 74 % and 45 %.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms that vaginal cancer is still a rare malignancy in France with 5-year net survival that remains low. We observed a consistent decrease in the incidence rate between 1990 and 2018. It may be too early to attribute these trends to a positive impact of vaccination campaigns against hrHPV infection, since vaginal cancer mainly affects older women and HPV vaccination has only been available since the early 2000s, and only targets young girls.

Long-Term Projections of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Japan and Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Cancer Burden, 2020-2054: An Empirical Validation Approach

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to project new cancer cases/deaths forward to 2054, and decompose changes in cancer cases/deaths to assess the impact of demographic transitions on cancer burden.

METHODS

We collected data on cancer cases/deaths up to 2019, empirically validated the projection performance of multiple statistical models, and selected optimal models by applying time series cross-validation.

RESULTS

We showed an increasing number of new cancer cases but decreasing number of cancer deaths in both genders, with a large burden attributed to population aging. We observed the increasing incidence rates in most cancer sites but reducing rates in some infection-associated cancers, including stomach and liver cancers. Colorectal and lung cancers were projected to remain as leading cancer burdens of both incidence and mortality in Japan over 2020-2054, while prostate and female breast cancers would be the leading incidence burdens among men and women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from decomposition analysis require more supportive interventions for reducing mortality and improving the quality of life of Japanese elders. We emphasize the important role of governments and policymakers in reforming policies for controlling cancer risk factors, including oncogenic infections. The rapid increase and continued presence of those cancer burdens associated with modifiable risk factors warrant greater efforts in cancer control programs, specifically in enhancing cancer screening and controlling cancer risk factors in Japan.

Measurement and projection of the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries, 1990-2050: A population-based study

Background

Quantitative attribution of the burden of disease due to population aging is an important part of setting meaningful global health priorities. This study comprehensively examines the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries from 1990 to 2019, incorporates a comprehensive range of diseases, and projects the burden of disease due to population aging till 2050.

Methods

We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 for 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We decomposed the change in disease burden into the contribution of the age structure of the population, population size, and age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates due to all other reasons. We used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age on temporal trends, and then to predict the possible disease burden in 2050.

Results

At the global level, the change in total DALYs associated with age structure, population size, and all other reasons is 27.4%, 16.8%, and 89.4% (absolute level of DALYs attributable to age structure: -15.20 million, 9.32 million, and -49.58 million) of the absolute level of DALYs gap between 2019 and 1990. The absolute level of DALYs changes attributable to age structure for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases were negative in all income groups from 1990 to 2019. For non-communicable diseases, the contribution was positive except in the low-income group. For injuries, the contribution was positive in lower-middle-income groups and low-income groups. By 2050, DALY rates decreased in all income groups, if compared to 2019. However, a total of 132 countries may see a gradual increase of all-cause DALYs attributable to population aging.

Conclusions

The direction and intensity of the effects of population aging on the burden of disease vary by region and disease, with huge implications for global health in the future.

Gini coefficient decomposition-based and mortality-rate-difference-based description of mortality causes in the Chinese population from 1991 to 2019: a retrospective cross-sectional surveillance study

OBJECTIVES

Improved national Disease Surveillance Points systems (DSPs) in China have clarified mortality causes in the Chinese population. This study aimed to investigate the variations and drivers of multiple mortality causes.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cross-sectional surveillance study.

SETTING

Original data in 1991 and 2000, and secondary data in 2010 and 2019 were collected from DSPs across China.

PARTICIPANTS

Standardised mortality rates (SMRs) and crude mortality rates (CMRs) of the Chinese population in 1991, 2000, 2010 and 2019 were ascertained.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in the Gini coefficients (G), computed using SMR, were decomposed into reranking (R) and proportionality (P) to identify variations in communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases (CMNN); non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injury. The CMR difference (in %) was partitioned into the demographic structure and non-demographic factors using the mortality-rate-difference method.

RESULTS

From 1991 to 2019, the overall CMR increased from 591.327/100 000 to 674.505/100 000, whereas the SMR continually decreased. An increasing concentration of NCDs contributed to the increased all-cause G from 0.443 to 0.560 during 1991-2019. Between 1991 and 2019, compared with CMNN (R=0.054) and NCDs (R=0.037), the ranking of injury changed the most (R=0.174). The ranking of diabetes, falls and road traffic accidents increased markedly over time. The decreased SMR of NCDs (P=-0.013) was mainly due to low-ranking causes, whereas changes in CMNN (P=0.003) and injury (P=0.131) were due to high-ranking causes. All-cause CMR increased by 14.06% from 1991 to 2019 due to greater contributions from the demographic structure (68.46%) than the non-demographic factors (-54.40%). Demographic structural changes accounted more for CMR increases in males (70.52%) and urban populations (75.58%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention and control measures targeting NCDs and specific causes are imperatively needed, and should be strengthened as the population ages, especially for males and rural populations.

Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates and Age and Risk-Associated Contributions to Change in Heart Disease and Stroke Mortality, 2011-2019 and 2019-2020

This cohort study examines the association of age and underlying disease risk with change in heart disease and stroke mortality from 2011 to 2020.

Predicting Ovarian-Cancer Burden in Catalonia by 2030: An Age-Period-Cohort Modelling

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal gynaecological cancer in very-high-human-development-index regions. Ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates are estimated to globally rise by 2035, although incidence and mortality rates depend on the region and prevalence of the associated risk factors. The aim of this study is to assess changes in incidence and mortality of ovarian cancer in Catalonia by 2030. Bayesian autoregressive age–period–cohort models were used to predict the burden of OC incidence and mortality rates for the 2015–2030 period. Incidence and mortality rates of ovarian cancer are expected to decline in Catalonia by 2030 in women ≥ 45 years of age. A decrease in ovarian-cancer risk was observed with increasing year of birth, with a rebound in women born in the 1980s. A decrease in mortality was observed for the period of diagnosis and period of death. Nevertheless, ovarian-cancer mortality remains higher among older women compared to other age groups. Our study summarizes the most plausible scenario for ovarian-cancer changes in terms of incidence and mortality in Catalonia by 2030, which may be of interest from a public health perspective for policy implementation.

Diverging incidence trends of oral tongue cancer compared to other head and neck cancers in young adults in France

While head and neck cancer incidence decreased worldwide due to reduced tobacco and alcohol consumption, oral tongue cancer (OTC) incidence has been reported to be increasing in several countries. Our study examines the incidence trends of OTC in France from 1990 to 2018, globally and by age; and compares the incidence trends with the evolution of the incidence of other human papilloma virus-unrelated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, that is, cancers of the remaining subsites of the oral cavity (RSOCC) and laryngeal cancers for the period 1990 to 2018. World age-standardized incidence rates of oral tongue cancers (C02), cancers of the remaining subsites of the oral cavity (RSOCC, C03-06) and laryngeal cancers (C32) were estimated using the French National Network of Cancer Registries for the period 1990 to 2018. Trends in national incidence rates were estimated from a mixed-effect Poisson model including age and year effects using penalized splines and a district-random effect. In women aged 30 and 40, a significant increase in OTC incidence was observed, while ROSCC showed a nonsignificant incidence decrease. In young men aged 25, a marginally significant increase of OTC incidence years was observed, while incidence rates of RSOCC significantly declined. The results suggest a tendency towards diverging incidence trends for OTC compared to RSOCC and laryngeal cancer in young adults. The observed trends may reflect changes in underlying exposures or emerging exposures not yet identified, and stress the need to further investigate the etiology of oral tongue cancers.

Demographic and Epidemiological Contributions to Recent Trends in Cancer Incidence in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Hong Kong has an ageing Chinese population with high life expectancy and a rising number of cancer cases. While population ageing could lead to higher incidence, we aim to quantify the demographic and epidemiological contributions to this trend by disentangling the effect of these factors.

METHODS

We analysed secular trends of cancer incidences of all cancer sites combined, including the five top cancers in men and women in Hong Kong in 1983-2017, by disentangling effects of demographics (ageing population and population growth) and cancer risk/rate change using the RiskDiff methodology.

RESULTS

Overall, age-standardised incidences of all cancers combined in women and in men declined over the study period (-5.3% for women, -30.2% for men), but total incident cancer case counts increased dramatically (156.5% for women, 96% for men). This increase was primarily due to ageing and increasing population (95% age, 66.1% growth for women, and 119.4% age, 25.4% growth for men), while disease risk for all cancers combined has a decreasing trend (-4.5% for women and -48.8% for men). For the site-specific risk changes among the most five common cancer types, there were increases in risks of prostate and colorectal cancers in men, and breast, endometrial, and thyroid cancers in women.

CONCLUSION

Demographic changes and ageing in our Chinese population resulted in a marked increase in the number of cancer diagnoses in Hong Kong in past decades. The surge in incident case counts overall is expected to stress the healthcare system in terms of the increased demand of healthcare professionals. Cancer surveillance should be enhanced in view of the growing demand from older patients and the cancer types with fast-increasing incidence rates in our population.

Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004-2025

BACKGROUND

We examine recent trends in the major cancers occurring in the Golestan province, a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Northern Iran, and provide short-term cancer predictions of the future cancer burden.

METHODS

New cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan 2004-2016 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) database, and age-standardized rates by cancer site, year and sex calculated per 100,000 person-years. Using IARC's DepPred package we fitted time-linear age-period models to the available GPCR data to predict the cancer incidence burden in the year 2025. We calculated the contribution of demographic changes versus changes in risk to the overall changes in incidence from 2016 to 2025.

RESULTS

The number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in 2025 is predicted to increase by 61.3% from 2678 cases in 2016 to 4319 cases. While a 17.6% reduction in the number of esophageal cancer cases is predicted by 2025, the number of new cases for each of the remaining major cancers is predicted to increase over the next decade, including cancers of the stomach (a 36.1% increase from 2016 to 2025), colorectum (56.2%), lung (67.8%), female breast (93.2%), prostate (101.8%) and leukemia (96.1%). The changes in the population structure and risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5% respectively, to the overall increase in incidence.

CONCLUSION

Other than for the major upper gastrointestinal cancer types, the incidence rates of common cancers observed in the province are on the rise, reinforcing the need for continuous surveillance, as well as the design and implementation of effective cancer control programs.

Trends in the Incidence of Stomach Cancer in Golestan Province, a High-risk Area in Northern Iran, 2004-2016

BACKGROUND

We aimed to present the temporal and geographical trends in the incidence of stomach cancer in the Golestan province, a high-risk area in Northern Iran.

METHODS

This study was conducted on stomach cancer cases registered in the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR) during 2004-2016. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100000 person-years were calculated. The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percent changes (AAPC). We also calculated the contribution of population aging, population size and risk to the overall changes in incidence rates.

RESULTS

Overall, 2964 stomach cancer patients were registered. The ASR of stomach cancer was significantly higher in men (26.9) than women (12.2) (P<0.01). There was a significant decreasing trend in incidence of stomach cancer in men (AAPC=-1.80, 95% CI: -3.30 to-0.28; P=0.02). We found a higher ASR of stomach cancer in the rural (21.4) than urban (18.1) (P=0.04) population, as well as a significant decreasing trend in its rates (AAPC=-2.14, 95% CI: -3.10to-1.17; P<0.01). The number of new cases of stomach cancer increased by 22.33% (from 215 in 2004 to 263 in 2016), of which 18.1%, 25.1% and -20.9% were due to population size, population aging and risk, respectively. Our findings suggest a higher rate for stomach cancer in eastern areas.

CONCLUSION

We found high incidence rates as well as temporal and geographical diversities in ASR of stomach cancer in Golestan, Iran. Our results showed an increase in the number of new cases, mainly due to population size and aging. Further studies are warranted to determine the risk factors of this cancer in this high-risk population.

Increasing trends of lung cancer in Golestan province, Northern Iran (2004-2016)

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to present the time trends and geographical distribution of lung cancer in Golestan province, a high-risk area for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Northern Iran (2004-2016).

METHODS

Data on incident primary lung cancers were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry. The data were analyzed by CanReg-5 software to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs). We used Joinpoint software for time trend analysis. Average annual percent changes were calculated. The contribution of population aging, population growth and risk to the overall changes in incidence of lung cancer were determined using partitioning analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 1829 cases of lung cancer were registered by the GPCR during 2004-2016, of which 1274 (69.7%, ASR in 2016 = 21.3) were men and 555 (30.3%, ASR in 2016 = 11.4) were women. The results of Joinpoint regression suggested a significant increasing trend in incidence of lung cancer in Golestan province during 2004 and 2016 (AAPC = 3.74; p-value = 0.01) with more prominent increasing in rural population (AAPC = 4.93; p-value<0.01). The number of new cases of lung cancer increased by 131.6% (from 98 in 2004 to 227 in 2016), of which 34.1%, 22.3% and 75.3% were due to population size, population aging and risk, respectively. Hot points of lung cancer were found in western parts of the Golestan.

CONCLUSION

With high incidence rates and increasing trends of lung cancer, further studies are warranted to clarify the role of TB and other risk factors on its burden in this population.

A new method to attribute differences in total deaths between groups to population size, age structure and age-specific mortality rate

BACKGROUND

Two decomposition methods have been widely used to attribute death differences between two populations to population size, age structure of the population, and age-specific mortality rate (ASMR), but their properties remain uninvestigated.

METHODS

We assess how the two established decomposition methods yield varying results with three-factor factorial experimental designs, illustrating that they are sensitive to the choice of the reference group. We then propose a novel decomposition method to obtain robust decomposition results and use three cases to demonstrate its advantage.

RESULTS

The three decomposition methods differ fundamentally in their allocation of interactions to the contributions of the three factors. In comparison with the existing methods, the new method is robust to the choice of the reference group. Three case studies showed inconsistent attribution results for the two existing methods but robust results for the new method when the choice of the reference population changes.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method offers robust and more justifiable attribution results compared to the two existing methods. This method could be generalized to attribution of group differences of other health indicators.

Merkel cell carcinoma: Current US incidence and projected increases based on changing demographics

BACKGROUND

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) incidence rates are rising and strongly age-associated, relevant for an aging population.

OBJECTIVE

Determine MCC incidence in the United States and project incident cases through the year 2025.

METHODS

Registry data were obtained from the SEER-18 Database, containing 6600 MCC cases. Age- and sex-adjusted projections were generated using US census data.

RESULTS

During 2000-2013, the number of reported solid cancer cases increased 15%, melanoma cases increased 57%, and MCC cases increased 95%. In 2013, the MCC incidence rate was 0.7 cases/100,000 person-years in the United States, corresponding to 2488 cases/year. MCC incidence increased exponentially with age, from 0.1 to 1.0 to 9.8 (per 100,000 person-years) among age groups 40-44 years, 60-64 years, and ≥85 years, respectively. Due to aging of the Baby Boomer generation, US MCC incident cases are predicted to climb to 2835 cases/year in 2020 and 3284 cases/year in 2025.

LIMITATIONS

We assumed that the age-adjusted incidence rate would stabilize, and thus, the number of incident cases we projected might be an underestimate.

CONCLUSION

An aging population is driving brisk increases in the number of new MCC cases in the United States. This growing impact combined with the rapidly evolving therapeutic landscape warrants expanded awareness of MCC diagnosis and management.

Cancer incidence in Spain, 2015

PURPOSE

Periodic cancer incidence estimates of Spain from all existing population-based cancer registries at any given time are required. The objective of this study was to present the current situation of cancer incidence in Spain.

METHODS

The Spanish Network of Cancer Registries (REDECAN) estimated the numbers of new cancer cases occurred in Spain in 2015 by applying the incidence-mortality ratios method. In the calculus, incidence data from population-based cancer registries and mortality data of all Spain were used.

RESULTS

In 2015, nearly a quarter of a million new invasive cancer cases were diagnosed in Spain, almost 149,000 in men (60.0%) and 99,000 in women. Globally, the five most common cancers were those of colon-rectum, prostate, lung, breast and urinary bladder. By gender, the four most common cancers in men were those of prostate (22.4%), colon-rectum (16.6%), lung (15.1%) and urinary bladder (11.7%). In women, the most common ones were those of breast (28.0%), colon-rectum (16.9%), corpus uteri (6.2%) and lung (6.0%). In recent years, cancer incidence in men seems to have stabilized due to the fact that the decrease in tobacco-related cancers compensates for the increase in other types of cancer like those of colon and prostate. In women, despite the stabilization of breast cancer incidence, increased incidence is due, above all, to the rise of colorectal and tobacco-related cancers.

CONCLUSION

To reduce these incident cancer cases, improvement of smoking control policies and extension of colorectal cancer screening should be the two priorities in cancer prevention for the next years.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

Contribution of changes in demography and in the risk factors to the predicted pattern of cancer mortality among Spanish women by 2022

BACKGROUND

Changes in the burden of cancer mortality are expected to be observed among Spanish women. We predict those changes, in Spain, for breast cancer (BC), colorectal cancer (CRC), lung cancer (LC) and pancreatic cancer (PC) from 2013 to 2022.

METHODS

Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling was used to perform projections of the cancer burden in 2013-2022, extrapolating the trend of cancer mortality data from 1998 to 2012. We assessed the time trends of the crude rates (CRs) during 1998-2012, and compared the number of cancer deaths between the periods 2008-2012 and 2018-2022 to assess the contribution of demographic changes and changes in the risk factors for cancer.

RESULTS

During 1998-2012, CRs of cancer decreased for BC (0.3% per year) and increased for LC (4.7%), PC (2%) and CRC (0.7%). During 2013-2022, CRs might level off for CRC, whereas the time trends for the remaining cancers might continue at a similar pace. During 2018-2022, BC could be surpassed by CRC as the most frequent cause of cancer mortality among Spanish women, whereas LC could be the most common cause of cancer mortality among women aged 50-69 years (N/year=1960 for BC versus N/year=1981 for LC). Comparing 2018-2022 and 1998-2012, changes in the risk factors for cancer could contribute 37.93% and 18.36% to the burden of LC and PC, respectively, and demographic shifts - mainly due to ageing (19.27%) - will drive the burden of CRC.

CONCLUSIONS

During 2018-2022, demographic changes (ageing) and changes in risk factors could have a different impact on the lifetime risk of cancer among Spanish women.

Has prostate cancer mortality stopped its decline in Spain?

OBJECTIVE

To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1980-2013.

SUBJECT AND METHOD

The prostate cancer mortality data and population data needed to calculate the indicators were provided by the National Institute of Statistics. We calculated the specific rates by age group, raw and standardised globally using the direct method (European standard population). The rates are expressed for 100,000 person-years. For the analysis of trends in the rates, we used joinpoint regression models.

RESULTS

The overall rates adjusted for age in Spain decreased from 21.7 to 15.4 deaths per 100,000 men-years between the starting and ending date of the study period (annual percentage change: -.9%; P<.05). The joinpoint analysis reflects 2 periods: 1980-1998 (.7% annual increase; P<.05) and 1998-2013, during which the rates decreased significantly (-3%; P<.05). Except for the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla where the rates remained stable over the course of the study period, the communities showed 1 or 2 points of inflection in the trends, and all had a final period with a reduction in the rates (except for Galicia and Catalonia, where the rates stabilised in 2008-2013).

CONCLUSION

The decline in prostate cancer mortality in Spain appears to have stopped in Galicia and Catalonia.

Total and partial cancer prevalence in the adult French population in 2008

BACKGROUND

To provide estimations of partial and total prevalence of 24 cancer sites in France in 2008. The estimations of partial prevalence were compared with the previous estimations for 2002.

METHODS

Nationwide estimations of incidence and survival data from cancer registries were used for partial prevalence. Nationwide incidence and mortality data were used to estimate total prevalence.

RESULTS

At the end of 2008, in France, nearly 3 million people still alive had received a diagnosis of cancer. Of all prevalent cases, 36% were diagnosed 0 to 5 years earlier and 43% diagnosed 6 to 10 years earlier. The cancer sites with the highest prevalence were the prostate, the breast, and the colon-rectum. The changes in partial prevalence over 5 years (2002 to 2008) were considerable (+244,000 cases) and deemed to be highly related to changes in incidence.

CONCLUSION

The present estimations update the French prevalence data and highlight the burden of cancer in the population, especially in the elderly. The methods of this study had the advantage of using recent incidence and survival data, which is necessary to show sudden changes in incidence trends and changes in survival that impact prevalence.

[The incidence of ESRD in 2011]

This chapter provides a set of indicators on incident patients with renal replacement therapy. In 2011, in 25 French regions (99% population), 9 248 patients started a treatment by dialysis (incidence of dialysis: 149 per million inhabitants) and 334 patients with a pre-emptive graft without previous dialysis (incidence of pre-emptive graft: 5 per million inhabitants). One patient among two are over 70 years old at renal replacement therapy initiation. As in 2010, incidence rate seems to stabilize.

Trends in the epidemiology and care of diabetes mellitus-related end-stage renal disease in France, 2007-2011

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim was to study geographic variations and recent trends in the incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) by diabetes status and type, and in patient condition and modalities of care at initiation of renal replacement therapy.

METHODS

Data from the French population-based dialysis and transplantation registry of all ESRD patients were used to study geographic variations in 5,857 patients without diabetes mellitus, 227 with type 1 diabetes mellitus, and 3,410 with type 2. Trends in incidence and patient care from 2007 to 2011 were estimated.

RESULTS

Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were higher in the overseas territories than in continental France for ESRD unrelated to diabetes and related to type 2 diabetes, but quite similar for type 1 diabetes-related ESRD. ESRD incidence decreased significantly over time for patients with type 1 diabetes (-10% annually) and not significantly for non-diabetic patients (0.2%), but increased significantly for patients with type 2 diabetes (+7% annually until 2009 and seemingly stabilised thereafter). In type 2 diabetes, the net change in the absolute number was +21%, of which +3% can be attributed to population ageing, +2% to population growth and +16% to the residual effect of the disease. Patients with type 2 diabetes more often started dialysis as an emergency (32%) than those with type 1 (20%) or no diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The major impact of diabetes on ESRD incidence is due to type 2 diabetes mellitus. Our data demonstrate the need to reinforce strategies for optimal management of patients with diabetes to improve prevention, or delay the onset, of diabetic nephropathy, ESRD and cardiovascular comorbidities, and to reduce the rate of emergency dialysis.

Cancer incidence and mortality in France over the 1980-2012 period: solid tumors

BACKGROUND

Cancer incidence and mortality estimates for 19 cancers (among solid tumors) are presented for France between 1980 and 2012.

METHODS

Incidence data were collected from 21 local registries and correspond to invasive cancers diagnosed between 1975 and 2009. Mortality data for the same period were provided by the Institut national de la santé et de la recherche médicale. The national incidence estimates were based on the use of mortality as a correlate of incidence. The observed incidence and mortality data were modeled using an age-period-cohort model. The numbers of incident cases and deaths for 2010-2012 are the result of short-term projections.

RESULTS

In 2012, the study estimated that 355,000 new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and 148,000 deaths from cancer occurred in France. The incidence trend was not linear over the study period. After a constant increase from 1980 onwards, the incidence of cancer in men declined between 2005 and 2012. This recent decrease is largely related to the reduction in the incidence of prostate cancer. In women, the rates stabilized, mainly due to a change in breast cancer incidence. Mortality from most cancer types declined over the study period. A combined analysis of incidence and mortality by cancer site distinguished cancers with declining incidence and mortality (e.g., stomach) and cancers with increasing incidence and mortality (e.g., lung cancer in women). Some other cancers had rising incidence but declining mortality (e.g., thyroid).

CONCLUSION

This study reveals recent changes in cancer incidence trends, particularly regarding breast and prostate cancers.

Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models

PURPOSE

To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020.

METHODS/PATIENTS

Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models.

RESULTS

There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010-2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

The clinical status and survival in elderly dialysis: example of the oldest region of France

BACKGROUND

The number of elderly (≥75 years) patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has increased markedly, including in the Limousin region, which has the oldest population in France. We retrospectively compared outcomes in elderly and non-elderly ESRD patients who started dialysis during two time periods.

METHODS

Baseline clinical characteristics, care, and survival rates were assessed in 557 ESRD patients aged ≥75 and <75 years who started dialysis in 2002-2004 and 2005-2007. Survival curves and Cox proportional hazards model were used to assess survival and factors associated with survival.

RESULTS

Of the 557 patients, 343 and 214 were <75 years and ≥75 years, respectively. Dialysis was started in 2002-2004 and 2005-2007 by 197 and 146 patients <75 years, respectively, and by 96 and 118 patients ≥75 years, respectively. Median age (73.4 years [interquartile range [IQR] 61.7-79.5 years] vs 69.5 years [IQR 57.4-77.4 years] p = 0.001) and the proportion aged ≥75 years (44.7% vs 32.8%, p = 0.004) were significantly higher in 2005-2007 than in 2002-2004. Improved initial status during 2005-2007 was observed only in patients ≥75 years, with a decrease in some co-morbidities, improved walking and better preparation for dialysis. Mortality rates were significantly lower in 2005-2007 than in 2002-2004 (hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.95; p = 0.008), with the difference due to factors associated with clinical status and care.

CONCLUSIONS

Improved initial clinical status and better preparation for dialysis, accompanied by increased survival, were observed for patients ≥75 years who started dialysis more recently, perhaps because of early referral to a nephrologist.

Explaining the difference in prognosis between screen-detected and symptomatic breast cancers

BACKGROUND

We analysed 10-year survival data in 19,411 women aged 50-64 years diagnosed with invasive breast cancer in the West Midlands region of the United Kingdom. The aim was to estimate the survival advantage seen in cases that were screen detected compared with those diagnosed symptomatically and attribute this to shifts in prognostic variables or survival differences specific to prognostic categories.

METHODS

We studied tumour size, histological grade and the Nottingham Prognostic Index in very narrow categories and investigated the distribution of these prognostic factors within screen-detected and symptomatic tumours. We also adjusted for lead time bias.

RESULTS

The unadjusted 10-year breast cancer survival in screen-detected cases was 85.5% and in symptomatic cases 62.8%; after adjustment for lead time bias, survival in the screen-detected cases was 79.3%. Within narrow categories of prognostic variables, survival differences were small, indicating that the majority of the survival advantage of screen detection is due to differences in the distributions of size and node status.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggested that a combination of lead time with size and node status in 10 categories explained almost all (97%) of the survival advantage. Only a small proportion remained to be explained by biological differences, manifested as length bias or overdiagnosis.

RiskDiff: a web tool for the analysis of the difference due to risk and demographic factors for incidence or mortality data

Background

Analysing the observed differences for incidence or mortality of a particular disease between two different situations (such as time points, geographical areas, gender or other social characteristics) can be useful both for scientific or administrative purposes. From an epidemiological and public health point of view, it is of great interest to assess the effect of demographic factors in these observed differences in order to elucidate the effect of the risk of developing a disease or dying from it. The method proposed by Bashir and Estève, which splits the observed variation into three components: risk, population structure and population size is a common choice at practice.

Results

A web-based application, called RiskDiff has been implemented (available at http://rht.iconcologia.net/riskdiff.htm), to perform this kind of statistical analyses, providing text and graphical summaries. Code from the implemented functions in R is also provided. An application to cancer mortality data from Catalonia is used for illustration.

Conclusions

Combining epidemiological with demographical factors is crucial for analysing incidence or mortality from a disease, especially if the population pyramids show substantial differences. The tool implemented may serve to promote and divulgate the use of this method to give advice for epidemiologic interpretation and decision making in public health.

[Predictions of cancer incidence and mortality in Catalonia to 2015 by means of Bayesian models]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

To perform cancer incidence and mortality projections in Catalonia for the period 2005-2019. To assess the projected increase in the incidence in 2015 compared with that in 2005, and to determine whether this increase is attributable to changes in risk or in demographics.

POPULATION AND METHOD

Bayesian age-period-cohort models were fitted to age-specific rates for 1985-2004 to obtain the expected number of cases for the 5-year periods 2005-2009, 2010-2014 and 2015- 2019. Annual cases were estimated through a polynomial interpolation model. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Tarrragona and Gerona cancer registries, while population pyramids for the period 1985-2019 were obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics.

RESULTS

In Catalonia, 27,438 cancer cases will be diagnosed among men and 19,986 among women in 2015, representing an increase in the number of cases diagnosed of 31% and 34%, respectively, when compared with those diagnosed in 2005 (20,999 and 14,141, respectively). In men, the increases attributable to risk, aging and demographic changes are 10%, 14% and 7%, respectively, whereas in women these changes are 6%, 13% and 15%. In the next decade, cancer mortality is expected to stabilize in men and to continue to decrease in women. Major increases in cancer incidence and mortality are expected among old age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study highlights the need to reorganize the resources and infrastructures required for cancer control and care, taking into account the predicted burden of oncology patients.

[Some interpretation of regional estimates of the incidence of cancer in France over the period 1980--2005]

Francim Network has already provided French national estimations of cancer incidence then regional estimations for Metropolitan France. The present technical note summarizes the underlying hypotheses and the limits of the method and suggests some aspects of interpretation of those regional results in terms of absolute numbers and of standardized rates. Results on "all cancers" illustrate those comments.

Cancer prevalence in France: time trend, situation in 2002 and extrapolation to 2012

BACKGROUND

Cancer prevalence is a basic indicator of the cancer burden in a population and essential to estimate the resources needed for care of cancer patients. This paper provides a prevalence estimate for 2002 and 2012 in France and an assessment of the trend in prevalence over the period 1993-2002.

METHOD

Incidence and survival data from French cancer registries were used to estimate specific 5-year partial prevalence rates that were then applied to the whole French population.

RESULTS

In 2002, the 5-year partial prevalence was over 427,000 in men and 409,000 in women. The most frequent cancer site among men was prostate (35% of the cases) and breast in women (45% of the cases). In 2002, in France, more than 3.5% of men over 74 years old are alive with a prostatic cancer diagnosed within 5 years. The increase in the number of cases between 1993 and 2002 was about 40% and was mainly due to prostate and breast cancers. The demographic variations alone induce an increase of the number of prevalent cases of 75,000 among men and 54,500 among women if both incidence and survival are considered as stable during the period 2002-2012.

CONCLUSION

This study uses a large amount of information from cancer registries which makes it possible to assess the cancer burden. Five-year prevalence is very sensitive to changes in incidence and demographic changes. Prevalence has to be estimated regularly in order to ensure accurate medical care meets demand.

[Cancer mortality in France: the number of deaths is increasing but the risk of dying from cancer is decreasing]

INTRODUCTION

To analyze the trends in cancer mortality between 1968 and 2000, one needs to consider both the increase in the size of the population and the ageing of this population, since both phenomena lead to a mechanical increase in the number of deaths.

METHODS

We describe the analysis of the variation in number of deaths to distinguish the demographic effects from the variation in risk. This variation in risk must be studied, controlling for both the size and the age of the population.

RESULTS

The number of cancer deaths in France increased by 15.5% between 1980 and 2000. Based on the demographic changes, one would have expected an increase of 29.1%: 10.3% because the population has grown and 18.8% because it has aged. The observed increase is less than expected because the demographic effects have been canceled out in large measure by a decrease in the risk of cancer, which fell by 13.6% (29.1% minus 15.5%) between 1980 and 2000.

DISCUSSION

It is a mistake to describe the increase in the number of cancer deaths as worrisome when it is due only to demographic changes. The risk of dying from cancer is not rising in France: it is clearly falling.