Associations of Individual Characteristics and Socioeconomic Status With Heated Tobacco Product Harmfulness Perceptions in Japan: A Nationwide Cross-sectional Study (INFORM Study 2020)

BACKGROUND

In Japan, heated tobacco products (HTPs) are promoted by the tobacco industry as reduced-risk tobacco products despite the lack of evidence for this claim. This study determined the distribution of HTP-harmfulness perception and identified the explanatory factors associated with the perception of HTP as less harmful than conventional cigarettes.

METHODS

A nationwide cross-sectional survey was conducted with Japanese people aged 20 years or older (INFORM Study 2020) using a self-administered questionnaire. We performed descriptive analysis and weighted logistic regression analysis to examine the relationship between explanatory factors (eg, individual characteristics, socioeconomic status, and trusted sources of cancer information) and the perception of HTPs as less harmful.

RESULTS

Among 3,420 participants, the proportions of those who perceived HTPs as less harmful were 40.3% and 18.3% for users and non-users of tobacco, respectively. For participants aged 20-39 years, the proportions were 49.9% and 30.4%, respectively. Among 1,160 tobacco non-users who were familiar with HTPs, male, aged under 39 years, and having lower education were associated with the perception of HTPs as less harmful. Trusted sources of cancer information were not associated with the perception of HTPs as less harmful.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that, among tobacco non-users, being male, aged under 39 years, and having lower education were associated with a perception of HTPs as less harmful. Public health stakeholders should provide the latest evidence about HTP harmfulness in their daily practice and strengthen the regulations on HTP marketing directed at both tobacco- and tobacco non-users.

Patients' perceptions of patient-centered communication with healthcare providers and associated factors in Japan - The INFORM Study 2020

OBJECTIVE

To describe patients' perceptions of the patient-centeredness of their communication with healthcare providers in Japan, and to examine factors associated with these perceptions.

METHODS

We analyzed the cross-sectional data from the INFORM Study 2020, which is a nationwide survey on health information access in Japan. A total of 3605 respondents completed the survey. Our primary outcome was the nine elements of the patient-centered communication scale (PCCS), which was compiled from 2703 respondents (75.0%) reporting at least one provider visit within 12 months. It was rated on a four-point Likert scale: always, usually, sometimes, and never. We used binary logistic regression to examine the association between sociodemographic and health-related variables, and each element of the PCCS.

RESULTS

For all elements, the percentage of respondents who agreed that their healthcare providers always communicated in a patient-centered way was low (17-31%). Patients with higher age, higher education, poorer general health status and a larger number of visits to providers in the previous 12 months were more likely to have positive perception.

CONCLUSION

Patient-centered communication as reported in a national sample in Japan was low.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

Efforts are needed to improve the patient-centeredness of patient-provider communication in Japan to optimize health outcomes.

Age, gender and socioeconomic disparities in human papillomavirus (HPV) awareness and knowledge among Japanese adults after a 7-year suspension of proactive recommendation for the HPV vaccine: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey

The Japanese government's 2013 suspension of its proactive recommendation for Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination resulted in low HPV vaccination coverage and was unique. However, data on awareness and knowledge of HPV vaccines in the general population was limited. Here, to investigate more recent awareness and knowledge of HPV vaccines by age, gender, and socioeconomic status, we used data from the INFORM Study 2020, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of self-administered questionnaires with 1,998 Japanese individuals aged 20 to 59 years. We found that 47.5% of females and 21.0% of males had heard of HPV, and 33.6% of females and 16.8% of males had knowledge of HPV vaccine efficacy. After adjusting for potential confounders, females aged 50-54 years were more likely to be aware of HPV than females aged 20-24 (AOR, 2.02, 95%CI: 1.12-3.65). Females (AOR, 2.13, 95%CI: 1.48-3.07) and males (AOR, 1.64, 95%CI: 1.03-2.59) with higher education had more awareness than those with less education. Females with higher education had more knowledge about HPV vaccine efficacy than those with less education (AOR, 1.70; 95%CI: 1.16-2.50). We found a generally low level of awareness and knowledge about HPV vaccines in Japan, which might be attributable to the suspension of proactive recommendations. Additionally, we identified disparities in awareness and knowledge by age, gender, socioeconomic status, and health literacy. Enhancing HPV awareness and understanding of HPV vaccines and implementing targeted efforts for specific subpopulations within Japan after the resumption of proactive recommendation for HPV vaccines, are imperative.

Group leisure activities are associated with a lower risk of dementia than individual leisure activities: A 6-year longitudinal study from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES)

Participating in group leisure activities may lower the risk of dementia compared with doing leisure activities alone. However, only some studies have examined the differences. In this study, we sought to determine whether the incidence of dementia risk differs according to the implementation status of leisure activities (participation in a group or alone). The association between the implementation status of leisure activities and the risk of dementia was examined using Cox proportional hazards models in the 6-year (2010-2016) cohort data of 50,935 participants (23,533 males and 27,402 females) aged 65 years or older of the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. Over six years of follow-up, 5395 respondents (10.6%) developed dementia. After adjusting for potential confounders, such as depression and social support, the implementation status of leisure activities was associated with a lower dementia risk in participants who engaged in group leisure activities (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.85) and a higher dementia risk in those without leisure activity (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.22-1.39), in comparison with those engaging in leisure activities alone. Engagement in group leisure activities may be associated with a reduced risk of dementia.

Survival differences between the USA and an urban population from China for all cancer types and 20 individual cancers: a population-based study

Background

The systematic comparison of cancer survival between China and the USA is rare. Here we aimed to assess the magnitude of survival disparities and disentangle the impact of the stage at diagnosis between a Chinese metropolitan city and the USA on cancer survival.

Methods

We included 11,046 newly diagnosed cancer patients in Dalian Cancer Registry, China, 2015, with the follow-up data for vital status until December 2020. We estimated age-standardised 5-year relative survival and quantified the excess hazard ratio (EHR) of death using generalised linear models for all cancers and 20 individual cancers. We compared these estimates with 17 cancer registries' data from the USA, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We further estimated the stage-specific survival for five major cancers by region.

Findings

Age-standardised 5-year relative survival for all patients in Dalian was lower than that in the USA (49.9% vs 67.9%). By cancer types, twelve cancers with poorer prognosis were observed in Dalian compared to the USA, with the largest gap seen in prostate cancer (Dalian: 55.8% vs USA: 96.0%). However, Dalian had a better survival for lung cancer, cervical cancer, and bladder cancer. Dalian patients had a lower percentage of stage Ⅰ colorectal cancer (Dalian: 17.9% vs USA: 24.2%) and female breast cancer (Dalian: 40.9% vs USA: 48.9%). However, we observed better stage-specific survival among stage Ⅰ-Ⅱ lung cancer patients in Dalian than in the USA.

Interpretation

This study suggests that although the overall prognosis for patients was better in the USA than in Dalian, China, survival deficits existed in both countries. Improvement in cancer early detection and cancer care are needed in both countries.

Funding

National Key R&D Program (2021YFC2501900, 2022YFC3600805), Major State Basic Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (2021-I2M-1-010, 2021-I2M-1-046), and Talent Incentive Program of Cancer Hospital of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences.

Long-term effects of aromatase inhibitors on body mass index among postmenopausal breast cancer survivors in Africa: observational cohort study

PURPOSE

this study was conducted to assess the impact of AIs on body mass index and high sensitivity as prognostic predictors to be incorporated into point of care technology (POCT) testing in postmenopausal breast cancer women after a 24 month follow up in Africa. An observational cohort study was conducted; including 126 female BC patients with stages ranging from 0-III initially subjected to AIs and subsequently followed up for 24 months. Multiple imputation model was conducted to predict missing data.

RESULTS

Random effects model was used to monitor the changes over the time. The study revealed stronger statistically association between BMI and homocysteine (p = 0.021, 95%CI: 0.0083 to 0.1029). Weight and total body fat were strongly associated after 24 months follow up. Hs-CRP was associated with BMI (p = 0.0001), and hs-CRP was associated with other biomedical markers such as calcium (p = 0.021, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.10), phosphate (p = 0.039, 95%CI: 0.01 to 0.10), and ferritin (p = 0.002, 95%CI: 0.02 to 0.08) and calcium. The patients subjected to AIs are likely to develop cardiovascular adverse events. POCT of care strategy which include clinical, biomedical and genetic predictor's measurement is required to improve BC survivorship.

Impute-then-exclude versus exclude-then-impute: Lessons when imputing a variable used both in cohort creation and as an independent variable in the analysis model

We examined the setting in which a variable that is subject to missingness is used both as an inclusion/exclusion criterion for creating the analytic sample and subsequently as the primary exposure in the analysis model that is of scientific interest. An example is cancer stage, where patients with stage IV cancer are often excluded from the analytic sample, and cancer stage (I to III) is an exposure variable in the analysis model. We considered two analytic strategies. The first strategy, referred to as "exclude-then-impute," excludes subjects for whom the observed value of the target variable is equal to the specified value and then uses multiple imputation to complete the data in the resultant sample. The second strategy, referred to as "impute-then-exclude," first uses multiple imputation to complete the data and then excludes subjects based on the observed or filled-in values in the completed samples. Monte Carlo simulations were used to compare five methods (one based on "exclude-then-impute" and four based on "impute-then-exclude") along with the use of a complete case analysis. We considered both missing completely at random and missing at random missing data mechanisms. We found that an impute-then-exclude strategy using substantive model compatible fully conditional specification tended to have superior performance across 72 different scenarios. We illustrated the application of these methods using empirical data on patients hospitalized with heart failure when heart failure subtype was used for cohort creation (excluding subjects with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction) and was also an exposure in the analysis model.

Functional disability trajectories at the end of life among Japanese older adults: findings from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES)

BACKGROUND

this study aimed to identify distinct subgroups of trajectories of disability over time before 3 years of death and examine the factors associated with trajectory group membership probabilities among community-dwelling Japanese older adults aged 65 years and above.

METHODS

participants included 4,875 decedents from among community-dwelling Japanese older adults, aged ≥ 65 years at baseline (men: 3,020; women: 1,855). The certified long-term care levels of the national long-term care insurance (LTCI) system were used as an index of functional disability. We combined data from the 2010 Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study and data from the 2010 to 2016 LTCI system. Group-based mixture models and multinominal logistic regression models were used for data analysis.

RESULTS

five distinct trajectories of functional disability in the last 3 years of life were identified: 'persistently severe disability' (10.3%), 'persistently mild disability' (13.0%), 'accelerated disability' (12.6%), 'catastrophic disability' (18.8%) and 'minimum disability' (45.2%). Multinominal logistic regression analysis found several factors associated with trajectory membership; self-rated health was a common predictor regardless of age and gender. The analysis also showed a paradoxical association; higher education was associated with trajectory group membership probabilities of more severe functional decline in men over 85 years at death.

CONCLUSIONS

individual perception of health was a strong predictor of trajectories, independent of demographic factors and socio-economic status. Our findings contribute to the development of policies for the long-term care system, particularly for end-of-life care, in Asian countries.

Social participation and change in walking time among older adults: a 3-year longitudinal study from the JAGES

BACKGROUND

Among all physical activities, walking is one of the easiest and most economical activities for older adults' mental and physical health. Although promoting social participation may extend the walking time of older adults, the longitudinal relationship is not well understood. Thus, this study elucidates the relationship between nine types of social participation and change in walking time during a 3-year follow-up of older adults.

METHODS

We conducted a 3-year community-based longitudinal study of independent older adults in Japan. From the 2016 and 2019 surveys, we extracted 57,042 individuals. We performed multiple regression analyses, estimating associations between change in walking time after three years and nine types of social participation in 2016: volunteer, sports, hobby, senior, neighborhood, learning, health, skills, and paid work. We conducted subgroup analysis stratified by walking time in 2016 (i.e., < 60 or ≥ 60 min/day).

RESULTS

The mean (standard deviation) change in walking time for 3 years was - 4.04 (29.4) min/day. After adjusting potential confounders, the significant predictors of increasing or maintaining walking time (min/day) were participation in paid work (+ 3.02) in the < 60 min/day subgroup; and volunteer (+ 2.15), sports (+ 2.89), hobby (+ 1.71), senior (+ 1.27), neighborhood (+ 1.70), learning (+ 1.65), health (+ 1.74), and skills (+ 1.95) in the ≥ 60 min/day subgroup compared with non-participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Paid work and community activities may be effective for maintaining or increasing walking time among older adults with less (< 60 min/day) and sufficient (≥ 60 min/day) walking time, respectively.

Ethnic, racial and socioeconomic disparities in breast cancer survival in two Brazilian capitals between 1996 and 2012

OBJECTIVE

To study the impact of socio-economic status and ethno-racial strata on excess mortality hazard and net survival of women with breast cancer in two Brazilian state capitals.

METHOD

We conducted a survival analysis with individual data from population-based cancer registries including women with breast cancer diagnosed between 1996 and 2012 in Aracaju and Curitiba. The main outcomes were the excess mortality hazard (EMH) and net survival. The associations of age, year of diagnosis, disease stage, race/skin colour and socioeconomic status (SES) with the excess mortality hazard and net survival were analysed using multi-level spline regression models, modelled as cubic splines with knots at 1 and 5 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

A total of 2045 women in Aracaju and 7872 in Curitiba were included in the analyses. The EMH was higher for women with lower SES and for black and brown women in both municipalities. The greatest difference in excess mortality was seen between the most deprived women and the most affluent women in Curitiba, hazard ratio (HR) 1.93 (95%CI 1.63-2.28). For race/skin colour, the greatest ratio was found in Curitiba (HR 1.35, 95%CI 1.09-1.66) for black women compared with white women. The most important socio-economic difference in net survival was seen in Aracaju. Age-standardised net survival at five years was 55.7% for the most deprived women and 67.2% for the most affluent. Net survival at eight years was 48.3% and 61.0%, respectively. Net survival in Curitiba was higher than in Aracaju in all SES groups."

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest the presence of contrasting breast cancer survival expectancy in Aracaju and Curitiba, highlighting regional inequalities in access to health care. Lower survival among brown and black women, and those in lower SES groups indicates that early detection, early diagnosis and timely access to treatment must be prioritized to reduce inequalities in outcome among Brazilian women.

Dealing with missing information on covariates for excess mortality hazard regression models - Making the imputation model compatible with the substantive model

Missing data is a common issue in epidemiological databases. Among the different ways of dealing with missing data, multiple imputation has become more available in common statistical software packages. However, the incompatibility between the imputation and substantive model, which can arise when the associations between variables in the substantive model are not taken into account in the imputation models or when the substantive model is itself nonlinear, can lead to invalid inference. Aiming at analysing population-based cancer survival data, we extended the multiple imputation substantive model compatible-fully conditional specification (SMC-FCS) approach, proposed by Bartlett et al. in 2015 to accommodate excess hazard regression models. The proposed approach was compared with the standard fully conditional specification multiple imputation procedure and with the complete-case analysis using a simulation study. The SMC-FCS approach produced unbiased estimates in both scenarios tested, while the fully conditional specification produced biased estimates and poor empirical coverages probabilities. The SMC-FCS algorithm was then used for handling missing data in the evaluation of socioeconomic inequalities in survival from colorectal cancer patients diagnosed in the North Region of Portugal. The analysis using SMC-FCS showed a clearer trend in higher excess hazards for patients coming from more deprived areas. The proposed algorithm was implemented in R software and is presented as Supplementary Material.

Enhanced Directed Random Walk for the Identification of Breast Cancer Prognostic Markers from Multiclass Expression Data

Artificial intelligence in healthcare can potentially identify the probability of contracting a particular disease more accurately. There are five common molecular subtypes of breast cancer: luminal A, luminal B, basal, ERBB2, and normal-like. Previous investigations showed that pathway-based microarray analysis could help in the identification of prognostic markers from gene expressions. For example, directed random walk (DRW) can infer a greater reproducibility power of the pathway activity between two classes of samples with a higher classification accuracy. However, most of the existing methods (including DRW) ignored the characteristics of different cancer subtypes and considered all of the pathways to contribute equally to the analysis. Therefore, an enhanced DRW (eDRW+) is proposed to identify breast cancer prognostic markers from multiclass expression data. An improved weight strategy using one-way ANOVA (F-test) and pathway selection based on the greatest reproducibility power is proposed in eDRW+. The experimental results show that the eDRW+ exceeds other methods in terms of AUC. Besides this, the eDRW+ identifies 294 gene markers and 45 pathway markers from the breast cancer datasets with better AUC. Therefore, the prognostic markers (pathway markers and gene markers) can identify drug targets and look for cancer subtypes with clinically distinct outcomes.

Crude probability of death for cancer patients by spread of disease in New South Wales, Australia 1985 to 2014

BACKGROUND

To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

Population-based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985-2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age-specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma.

RESULTS

Estimated 10-year sex, age and spread-specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty-year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non-cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher.

CONCLUSION

Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival.

Age disparities in stage-specific colon cancer survival across seven countries: An International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership SURVMARK-2 population-based study

We sought to understand the role of stage at diagnosis in observed age disparities in colon cancer survival among people aged 50 to 99 years using population-based cancer registry data from seven high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom. We used colon cancer incidence data for the period 2010 to 2014. We estimated the 3-year net survival, as well as the 3-year net survival conditional on surviving at least 6 months and 1 year after diagnosis, by country and stage at diagnosis (categorised as localised, regional or distant) using flexible parametric excess hazard regression models. In all countries, increasing age was associated with lower net survival. For example, 3-year net survival (95% confidence interval) was 81% (80-82) for 50 to 64 year olds and 58% (56-60) for 85 to 99 year olds in Australia, and 74% (73-74) and 39% (39-40) in the United Kingdom, respectively. Those with distant stage colon cancer had the largest difference in colon cancer survival between the youngest and the oldest patients. Excess mortality for the oldest patients with localised or regional cancers was observed during the first 6 months after diagnosis. Older patients diagnosed with localised (and in some countries regional) stage colon cancer who survived 6 months after diagnosis experienced the same survival as their younger counterparts. Further studies examining other prognostic clinical factors such as comorbidities and treatment, and socioeconomic factors are warranted to gain further understanding of the age disparities in colon cancer survival.

Colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries 2010-2014: variation by age and stage at diagnosis (the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project)

OBJECTIVES

As part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) SURVMARK-2 project, we provide the most recent estimates of colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries by age and stage at diagnosis.

METHODS

Data from 386 870 patients diagnosed during 2010-2014 from 19 cancer registries in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK) were analysed. 1-year and 5-year net survival from colon and rectal cancer were estimated by stage at diagnosis, age and country, RESULTS: (One1-year) and 5-year net survival varied between (77.1% and 87.5%) 59.1% and 70.9% and (84.8% and 90.0%) 61.6% and 70.9% for colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Survival was consistently higher in Australia, Canada and Norway, with smaller proportions of patients with metastatic disease in Canada and Australia. International differences in (1-year) and 5-year survival were most pronounced for regional and distant colon cancer ranging between (86.0% and 94.1%) 62.5% and 77.5% and (40.7% and 56.4%) 8.0% and 17.3%, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for rectal cancer. Stage distribution of colon and rectal cancers by age varied across countries with marked survival differences for patients with metastatic disease and diagnosed at older ages (irrespective of stage).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival disparities for colon and rectal cancer across high-income countries are likely explained by earlier diagnosis in some countries and differences in treatment for regional and distant disease, as well as older age at diagnosis. Differences in cancer registration practice and different staging systems across countries may have impacted the comparisons.

Long-term trends in sex difference in bladder cancer survival 1975-2009: A population-based study in Osaka, Japan

In Japan, a study using population‐based cancer registry data from six prefectures revealed a difference in bladder cancer survival between men and women. However, the period of the study was limited to 1993‐2006. The recent introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors, which have proved to be effective for the treatment for bladder cancer, has led to a rising demand for analysis of long‐term trends in net survival in order to accurately assess the effect of the new treatment. The aim of the present study was to examine long‐term trends in sex difference in bladder cancer net survival using large‐scale population‐based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan (17,500 cases from 1975 to 2009). We also evaluated sex difference in bladder cancer survival after adjustment for stage, histologic type, and other prognostic factors. We showed the long‐term trend of five‐year net survival for each stage and found that women had poorer five‐year net survival than men for the whole study period. The risk of death from bladder cancer was higher among men than women even after adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group, and treatment (Excess hazard ratios: 1.17; 95% Confidence interval: 1.10‐1.25).

Accounting for missing data in statistical analyses: multiple imputation is not always the answer

Background

Missing data are unavoidable in epidemiological research, potentially leading to bias and loss of precision. Multiple imputation (MI) is widely advocated as an improvement over complete case analysis (CCA). However, contrary to widespread belief, CCA is preferable to MI in some situations.

Methods

We provide guidance on choice of analysis when data are incomplete. Using causal diagrams to depict missingness mechanisms, we describe when CCA will not be biased by missing data and compare MI and CCA, with respect to bias and efficiency, in a range of missing data situations. We illustrate selection of an appropriate method in practice.

Results

For most regression models, CCA gives unbiased results when the chance of being a complete case does not depend on the outcome after taking the covariates into consideration, which includes situations where data are missing not at random. Consequently, there are situations in which CCA analyses are unbiased while MI analyses, assuming missing at random (MAR), are biased. By contrast MI, unlike CCA, is valid for all MAR situations and has the potential to use information contained in the incomplete cases and auxiliary variables to reduce bias and/or improve precision. For this reason, MI was preferred over CCA in our real data example.

Conclusions

Choice of method for dealing with missing data is crucial for validity of conclusions, and should be based on careful consideration of the reasons for the missing data, missing data patterns and the availability of auxiliary information.

Size of company of the longest-held job and mortality in older Japanese adults: A 6-year follow-up study from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study

OBJECTIVES

Very few longitudinal studies have investigated the question of whether differences in company size may give rise to health inequalities. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between company size of the longest-held job and mortality in older Japanese adults.

METHODS

This study used longitudinal data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. Surveys were sent to functionally independent individuals aged 65 or older who were randomly sampled from 13 municipalities in Japan. Respondents were followed for a maximum of 6.6 years. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) for men and for women. Analysis was carried out on 35 418 participants (197 514 person-years).

RESULTS

A total of 3935 deaths occurred during the 6-year follow-up period. Among men, in Model 1 that adjusted for age, educational attainment, type of longest-held job, and municipalities, mortality HRs decreased significantly with increasing size of company (P for trend = .002). Compared to companies with 1-9 employees, the mortality HR (0.78, 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.90) was significantly lower for companies with 10 000 or more employees. However, there were no significant differences among women (P for trend = .41).

CONCLUSIONS

In men, mortality in old age may decrease with increasing size of company of the longest-held job. To reduce health inequalities in old age due to differences in size of company, studies should be conducted to determine the underlying mechanisms and moderating factors and those findings should be reflected in labor policies and occupational health systems.

Thyroid replacement therapy, thyroid stimulating hormone concentrations, and long term health outcomes in patients with hypothyroidism: longitudinal study

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration in patients with a diagnosis of hypothyroidism is associated with increased all cause mortality and a higher risk of cardiovascular disease and fractures.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

The Health Improvement Network (THIN), a database of electronic patient records from UK primary care.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients with incident hypothyroidism from 1 January 1995 to 31 December 2017.

EXPOSURE

TSH concentration in patients with hypothyroidism.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, atrial fibrillation, any fractures, fragility fractures, and mortality. Longitudinal TSH measurements from diagnosis to outcomes, study end, or loss to follow-up were collected. An extended Cox proportional hazards model with TSH considered as a time varying covariate was fitted for each outcome.

RESULTS

162 369 patients with hypothyroidism and 863 072 TSH measurements were included in the analysis. Compared with the reference TSH category (2-2.5 mIU/L), risk of ischaemic heart disease and heart failure increased at high TSH concentrations (>10 mIU/L) (hazard ratio 1.18 (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.38; P=0.03) and 1.42 (1.21 to 1.67; P<0.001), respectively). A protective effect for heart failure was seen at low TSH concentrations (hazard ratio 0.79 (0.64 to 0.99; P=0.04) for TSH <0.1 mIU/L and 0.76 (0.62 to 0.92; P=0.006) for 0.1-0.4 mIU/L). Increased mortality was observed in both the lowest and highest TSH categories (hazard ratio 1.18 (1.08 to 1.28; P<0.001), 1.29 (1.22 to 1.36; P<0.001), and 2.21 (2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001) for TSH <0.1 mIU/L, 4-10 mIU/L, and >10 mIU/L. An increase in the risk of fragility fractures was observed in patients in the highest TSH category (>10 mIU/L) (hazard ratio 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31; P=0.03)).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a diagnosis of hypothyroidism, no evidence was found to suggest a clinically meaningful difference in the pattern of long term health outcomes (all cause mortality, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, fractures) when TSH concentrations were within recommended normal limits. Evidence was found for adverse health outcomes when TSH concentration is outside this range, particularly above the upper reference value.

A prospective investigation of oral contraceptive use and breast cancer mortality: findings from the Swedish women's lifestyle and health cohort

BACKGROUND

The association between oral contraceptive (OC) use and long-term mortality remains uncertain and previous studies have reported conflicting findings. We aim to assess the long-term impact of OC use on all-cause and cancer-specific mortality.

METHODS

Out of 49,259 participants, we analysed data on 2120 (4.3%) women diagnosed with first primary breast cancer between 1993 and 2012, in the Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health Study. Kaplan-Meier plots were used to graph the hazard of mortality in association with oral contraceptives use, stage of disease and hormone receptors status at diagnosis. Cox proportional hazard model were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) between OC use and all-cause mortality. The same association was studied for breast cancer-specific mortality by modelling the log cumulative mortality risk, adjusting for clinical stage at diagnosis, hormone receptor status, body mass index and smoking.

RESULTS

Among 2120 women with breast cancer, 1268 (84%) reported ever use of OC and 254 died within 10 years of diagnosis. The risk of death for OC ever-users relative to never-users was: HR = 1.13 (95% CI: 0.66-1.94) for all-cause mortality and HR = 1.29 (95% CI: 0.53-3.18) for breast cancer-specific mortality. A high percentage of women (42.9%) were diagnosed at early stage disease (stage I).

CONCLUSIONS

Among women with primary breast cancer, OC ever-users compared to never- users did not have a higher all-cause or breast cancer specific-mortality, after the adjustment of risk factors.

Survival analysis and sentinel lymph node status in thin cutaneous melanoma: A multicenter observational study

Mitotic rate is no longer considered a staging criterion for thin melanoma in the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer Staging Manual. The aim of this observational study was to identify prognostic factors for thin melanoma and predictors and prognostic significance of sentinel lymph node (SLN) involvement in a large multicenter cohort of patients with melanoma from nine tertiary care hospitals. A total of 4249 consecutive patients with thin melanoma diagnosed from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2016 were included. The main outcomes were disease-free interval and melanoma-specific survival for the overall population and predictors of SLN metastasis (n = 1083). Associations between survival and SLN status and different clinical and pathologic variables (sex, age, tumor location, mitosis, ulceration, regression, lymphovascular invasion, histologic subtype, Clark level, and Breslow thickness) were analyzed by Cox proportional hazards regression and logistic regression. SLN status was the most important prognostic factor for melanoma-specific survival (hazard ratio, 13.8; 95% CI, 6.1-31.2; P < 0.001), followed by sex, ulceration, and Clark level for patients who underwent SLNB. A mitotic rate of >2 mitoses/mm2 was the only factor associated with a positive SLN biopsy (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.22-7; P = 0.01. SLN status is the most important prognostic factor in thin melanoma. A high mitotic rate is associated with metastatic SLN involvement. SLN biopsy should be discussed and recommended in patients with thin melanoma and a high mitotic rate.

Associations of neighborhood walkability with intensity- and bout-specific physical activity and sedentary behavior of older adults in Japan

AIM

We examined the relationships of objectively-measured walkability with accelerometer-measured activity patterns including bout-specific moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), light-intensity physical activity (LPA) and sedentary behavior in older Japanese adults.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 450 men and women (mean age 74 years) who were randomly selected from a resident registry of each municipality (Bunkyo, Fuchu and Oyama city). Neighborhood walkability was assessed using geographic information system data and activity patterns by a validated accelerometer (Active style Pro HJA-350IT). MVPA was assessed as overall (all minutes), short-bout (<10 min) and long-bout (≥10 min). We used analysis of covariance to examine environmental relationships with the three MVPA measures, LPA and sedentary behavior by quartiles of walkability, adjusting for accelerometer wear time and sociodemographic, behavioral and health-related factors.

RESULTS

In total, 27% of participants achieved ≥150 min/week of long-bout MVPA. Walkability was not associated with overall MVPA (Q1 = 35.0, Q2 = 31.9, Q3 = 31.4, Q4 = 34.2 min/day) Older adults living in low-walkability areas significantly accumulated more short-bout MVPA (Q1 = 27.2, Q2 = 22.1, Q3 = 20.1, Q4 = 20.5 min/day) and LPA (Q1 = 346, Q2 = 311, Q3 = 289, Q4 = 284 min/day), but less sedentary behavior (Q1 = 479, Q2 = 520, Q3 = 544, Q4 = 544 min/day) than those living in high-walkability areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Those living in low-walkability areas accumulated more LPA and short-bout MVPA. These activities might be helpful targets for initiatives to promote physical activity among older adult residents of low-walkability areas. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 861-867.

Imputation of missing prostate cancer stage in English cancer registry data based on clinical assumptions

BACKGROUND

Cancer stage can be missing in national cancer registry records. We explored whether missing prostate cancer stage can be imputed using specific clinical assumptions.

METHODS

Prostate cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2013 were identified in English cancer registry data and linked to administrative hospital and mortality data (n = 139,807). Missing staging items were imputed based on specific assumptions: men with recorded N-stage but missing M-stage have no distant metastases (M0); low/intermediate-risk men with missing N- and/or M-stage have no nodal disease (N0) or metastases; and high-risk men with missing M-stage have no metastases. We tested these clinical assumptions by comparing 4-year survival in men with the same recorded and imputed cancer stage. Multi-variable Cox regression was used to test the validity of the clinical assumptions and multiple imputation.

RESULTS

Survival was similar for men with recorded N-stage but missing M-stage and corresponding men with M0 (89.5% vs 89.6%); for low/intermediate-risk men with missing M-stage and corresponding men with M0 (92.0% vs 93.1%); and for low/intermediate-risk men with missing N-stage and corresponding men with N0 (90.9% vs 93.7%). However, survival was different for high-risk men with missing M-stage and corresponding men with M0. Imputation based on clinical imputation performs as well as statistical multiple imputation.

CONCLUSION

Specific clinical assumptions can be used to impute missing information on nodal involvement and distant metastases in some patients with prostate cancer.

Frequency and pattern of exercise and depression after two years in older Japanese adults: the JAGES longitudinal study

Few have clarified what exercise frequencies and patterns (e.g. alone or with others) are effective for preventing depression in older adults. We examined the relationship between total frequency and/or pattern of exercise and the risk of depression after two years in older Japanese adults. We used a sub-sample of the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES) performed in 2011 and 2013. The sample for analysis was 1,422 adults aged 65 years or older without depression and low physical strength in 2011. All variables were assessed with a questionnaire including the geriatric depression screening scale (GDS-15). Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to examine the relationships between exercise in 2011 and depression in 2013 (0 = non-depression, 1 = depression). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) for later depression was 0.52 (95% confidence intervals: 0.33–0.81) for exercise two or more times a week compared to non-exercisers. The OR for exercisers who exercise with others even a little (Ewo) was 0.53 (0.34–0.84) compared to non-exercisers. Among combinations of frequency and pattern, the OR for Ewo who exercise two or more times a week was 0.40 (0.24–0.68) compared to non-exercisers. Exercising at least twice a week and/or with others may be useful in preventing depression in older adults.

Variation in treatment and survival of older patients with non-metastatic breast cancer in five European countries: a population-based cohort study from the EURECCA Breast Cancer Group

BACKGROUND

Older patients are poorly represented in breast cancer research and guidelines do not provide evidence based recommendations for this specific group. We compared treatment strategies and survival outcomes between European countries and assessed whether variance in treatment patterns may be associated with variation in survival.

METHODS

Population-based study including patients aged ≥ 70 with non-metastatic BC from cancer registries from the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, England and Greater Poland. Proportions of local and systemic treatments, five-year relative survival and relative excess risks (RER) between countries were calculated.

RESULTS

In total, 236,015 patients were included. The proportion of stage I BC receiving endocrine therapy ranged from 19.6% (Netherlands) to 84.6% (Belgium). The proportion of stage III BC receiving no breast surgery varied between 22.0% (Belgium) and 50.8% (Ireland). For stage I BC, relative survival was lower in England compared with Belgium (RER 2.96, 95%CI 1.30-6.72, P < .001). For stage III BC, England, Ireland and Greater Poland showed significantly worse relative survival compared with Belgium.

CONCLUSIONS

There is substantial variation in treatment strategies and survival outcomes in elderly with BC in Europe. For early-stage BC, we observed large variation in endocrine therapy but no variation in relative survival, suggesting potential overtreatment. For advanced BC, we observed higher survival in countries with lower proportions of omission of surgery, suggesting potential undertreatment.

The risk of prostate cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality of nonmetastatic prostate cancer patients: A population-based retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

To assess the risk of prostate cancer (PCa) specific mortality (PCSM) compared to cardiovascular disease mortality (CVDM), or other-cause mortality (OCM) of men with nonmetastatic PCa according to PCa risk groups, primary treatment, and age.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective population-based cohort study identified 1,908 nonmetastatic PCa patients in the cancer registry Zurich and Zug, diagnosed between 2000 and 2009 living in the City of Zurich. Multiple imputation methods were applied to handle missing PCa information. Fine and Gray competing risk regression analysis was used to estimate subdistribution hazard ratios for the outcomes PCSM, CVDM, or OCM RESULTS: Ten years after diagnosis the cumulative probability of PCSM and CVDM was 16.4% and 10.0%, respectively. We observed an increased adjusted risk of PCSM in men treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) compared to surgery, but could not observe an association between ADT and CVDM. The probability of PCSM was significantly higher for patients on active surveillance or watchful waiting, compared to surgery. Age and PCa risk categories were positively associated with risk of PCSM, whereas there was no evidence for an association with CVDM or OCM based on risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, men with PCa were more likely to die from non-PCa related outcomes. Nevertheless, the analyses showed a high proportion of PCSM among men on ADT, older men and men with a high-risk tumor. However, further research is needed to understand comprehensively the benefits of the respective treatments.

Vulvar cancer in Germany: increase in incidence and change in tumour biological characteristics from 1974 to 2013

BACKGROUND

The incidence of vulvar cancer in Germany is increasing. Moreover, gynaecological oncologists reported observing increasing numbers of women presenting with small tumours. The aim of the present study is to validate this observation on a population level and to extend available incidence data.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry were used and included 1136 women diagnosed with invasive vulvar cancer (ICD-9 codes: 181.1-181.4, ICD-10 code: C51) between 1974 and 2013. Multiple imputation methodology was used to overcome loss of precision and potential bias resulting from incomplete data. Incidence trends were investigated with regard to age at diagnosis, tumour size and clinical stage, morphology and histopathologic grade.

RESULTS

The age-standardised incidence rate of vulvar cancer increased from 1.6 cases per 100,000 women per year in 1974-78 to 7.9 in 2009-13, representing an increase across all age groups. Since 1989-93, an almost exclusive increase in the incidence of small tumours ≤2 cm in the greatest dimension from 1.2 to 6.6 and of squamous cell carcinomas from 1.7 to 7.1 was observed, whereas the number of larger tumours and other invasive cancers remained rather constant. Patients aged ≥75 years generally suffered from more advanced tumours at the time of diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

An increase in vulvar cancer incidence of a size as observed in this study has not been reported thus far for any other European region. Furthermore, the analyses confirmed the observation of increasing numbers of women presenting with small tumours. The results of the age-specific analyses point to both human papillomavirus infection and non-infectious factors as explanations for the observed increase in squamous cell carcinomas.

Missing data and chance variation in public reporting of cancer stage at diagnosis: Cross-sectional analysis of population-based data in England

BACKGROUND

The percentage of cancer patients diagnosed at an early stage is reported publicly for geographically-defined populations corresponding to healthcare commissioning organisations in England, and linked to pay-for-performance targets. Given that stage is incompletely recorded, we investigated the extent to which this indicator reflects underlying organisational differences rather than differences in stage completeness and chance variation.

METHODS

We used population-based data on patients diagnosed with one of ten cancer sites in 2013 (bladder, breast, colorectal, endometrial, lung, ovarian, prostate, renal, NHL, and melanoma). We assessed the degree of bias in CCG (Clinical Commissioning Group) indicators introduced by missing-is-late and complete-case specifications compared with an imputed 'gold standard'. We estimated the Spearman-Brown (organisation-level) reliability of the complete-case specification. We assessed probable misclassification rates against current pay-for-performance targets.

RESULTS

Under the missing-is-late approach, bias in estimated CCG percentage of tumours diagnosed at an early stage ranged from -2 to -30 percentage points, while bias under the complete-case approach ranged from -2 to +7 percentage points. Using an annual reporting period, indicators based on the least biased complete-case approach would have poor reliability, misclassifying 27/209 (13%) CCGs against a pay-for-performance target in current use; only half (53%) of CCGs apparently exceeding the target would be correctly classified in terms of their underlying performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Current public reporting schemes for cancer stage at diagnosis in England should use a complete-case specification (i.e. the number of staged cases forming the denominator) and be based on three-year reporting periods. Early stage indicators for the studied geographies should not be used in pay-for-performance schemes.

Social and Behavioural Determinants of the Difference in Survival among Older Adults in Japan and England

BACKGROUND

A rapidly ageing population presents major challenges to health and social care services. Cross-country comparative studies on survival among older adults are limited. In addition, Japan, the country with the longest life expectancy, is rarely included in these cross-country comparisons.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the relative contributions of social and behavioural factors on the differences in survival among older people in Japan and England.

METHODS

We used data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study (JAGES; n = 13,176) and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA; n = 5,551) to analyse all-cause mortality up to 9.4 years from the baseline. Applying Laplace regression models, the 15th survival percentile difference was estimated.

RESULTS

During the follow-up, 31.3% of women and 38.6% of men in the ELSA died, whereas 19.3% of women and 31.3% of men in the JAGES died. After adjusting for age and baseline health status, JAGES participants had longer survival than ELSA participants by 318.8 days for women and by 131.6 days for men. Family-based social relationships contributed to 105.4 days longer survival in JAGES than ELSA men. Fewer friendship-based social relationships shortened the JAGES men's survival by 45.4 days compared to ELSA men. Currently not being a smoker contributed to longer survival for JAGES women (197.7 days) and ELSA men (46.6 days), and having lower BMI reduced the survival of JAGES participants by 129.0 days for women and by 212.2 days for men.

CONCLUSION

Compared to participants in England, Japanese older people lived longer mainly because of non-smoking for women and family-based social relationships for men. In contrast, a lower rate of underweight, men's better friendship-based social relationships, and a lower smoking rate contributed to survival among participants in England.

How Many Deaths from Colorectal Cancer Can Be Prevented by 2030? A Scenario-Based Quantification of Risk Factor Modification, Screening, and Treatment in Norway

Background: Colorectal cancer mortality can be reduced through risk factor modification (adherence to lifestyle recommendations), screening, and improved treatment. This study estimated the potential of these three strategies to modify colorectal cancer mortality rates in Norway.Methods: The potential reduction in colorectal cancer mortality due to risk factor modification was estimated using the software Prevent, assuming that 50% of the population in Norway-who do not adhere to the various recommendations concerning prevention of smoking, physical activity, body weight, and intake of alcohol, red/processed meat, and fiber-started to follow the recommendations. The impact of screening was quantified assuming implementation of national flexible sigmoidoscopy screening with 50% attendance. The reduction in colorectal cancer mortality due to improved treatment was calculated assuming that 50% of the linear (positive) trend in colorectal cancer survival would continue to persist in future years.Results: Risk factor modification would decrease colorectal cancer mortality by 11% (corresponding to 227 prevented deaths: 142 men, 85 women) by 2030. Screening and improved treatment in Norway would reduce colorectal cancer mortality by 7% (149 prevented deaths) and 12% (268 prevented deaths), respectively, by 2030. Overall, the combined effect of all three strategies would reduce colorectal cancer mortality by 27% (604 prevented deaths) by 2030.Conclusions: Risk factor modification, screening, and treatment all have considerable potential to reduce colorectal cancer mortality by 2030, with the largest potential reduction observed for improved treatment and risk factor modification.Impact: The estimation of these health impact measures provides useful information that can be applied in public health decision-making. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(9); 1420-6. ©2017 AACR.

Potential overtreatment among men aged 80 years and older with localized prostate cancer in Japan

Despite treatment guidelines recommending observation for men with low‐risk prostate cancer with life expectancy <10 years, a majority of elderly patients choose active treatment, which may result in overtreatment. Given the growing burden of prostate cancer among men aged ≥80 years (super‐elderly men), accumulation of survival data for evaluation of overtreatment among super‐elderly patients is imperative. Here, we report results of a population‐based cohort study to clarify potential overtreatment of super‐elderly men with localized prostate cancer. We used cancer registry data from the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan project, which covers 47% of the Japanese population. The subjects were men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 2006 and 2008. Follow‐up period was 5 years. We calculated 5‐year relative survival rates among the active treatment and observation groups after imputation for missing values. Of the 48 782 patients with prostate cancer included in the analysis, 15.1% were super‐elderly men. The 5‐year relative survival rates of super‐elderly men with localized cancer were 105.9% and 104.1% among the active treatment and observation groups, respectively. This excellent relative survival rate in the observation group remained consistent even after stratification by tumor grade. Of the 2963 super‐elderly men with localized cancer, 252 (8.5%) with curative treatment and 1476 (49.8%) with hormone therapy were assumed to have been overtreated. The proportion of overtreatment was estimated to reach 80% after imputation. These specific survival data in super‐elderly men in the observation group can be useful in shared decision‐making for these patients and may lead to a reduction in overtreatment.

Validity of using multiple imputation for "unknown" stage at diagnosis in population-based cancer registry data

Background

The multiple imputation approach to missing data has been validated by a number of simulation studies by artificially inducing missingness on fully observed stage data under a pre-specified missing data mechanism. However, the validity of multiple imputation has not yet been assessed using real data. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of using multiple imputation for “unknown” prostate cancer stage recorded in the New South Wales Cancer Registry (NSWCR) in real-world conditions.

Methods

Data from the population-based cohort study NSW Prostate Cancer Care and Outcomes Study (PCOS) were linked to 2000–2002 NSWCR data. For cases with “unknown” NSWCR stage, PCOS-stage was extracted from clinical notes. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the missing at random assumption adjusted for variables from two imputation models: a basic model including NSWCR variables only and an enhanced model including the same NSWCR variables together with PCOS primary treatment. Cox regression was used to evaluate the performance of MI.

Results

Of the 1864 prostate cancer cases 32.7% were recorded as having “unknown” NSWCR stage. The missing at random assumption was satisfied when the logistic regression included the variables included in the enhanced model, but not those in the basic model only. The Cox models using data with imputed stage from either imputation model provided generally similar estimated hazard ratios but with wider confidence intervals compared with those derived from analysis of the data with PCOS-stage. However, the complete-case analysis of the data provided a considerably higher estimated hazard ratio for the low socio-economic status group and rural areas in comparison with those obtained from all other datasets.

Conclusions

Using MI to deal with “unknown” stage data recorded in a population-based cancer registry appears to provide valid estimates. We would recommend a cautious approach to the use of this method elsewhere.

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer and impact on outcomes - A population-based study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Preoperative (chemo)radiotherapy ((C)RT) for rectal cancer is, in Norway, restricted to patients with cT4-stage or threatened circumferential resection margin. This nationwide population-based study assessed the use of preoperative (C)RT in Norway and its impact on treatment outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data from The Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Registry were used to identify all stage I-III rectal cancers treated with major resection (1997-2011: n=9193). Cumulative risk of local recurrence, distant metastasis, and relative survival was estimated for patients in 2007-2011 (n=3179). Multivariate regression-models were used to compare outcomes following preoperative (C)RT and surgery versus surgery alone.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients given preoperative (C)RT increased from 5% to 49% during 1997-2011. Preoperative (C)RT was associated with reduced risk of local recurrence (hazard ratio (HR)=0.55; 95% CI=0.29-1.04) and a tendency of improved survival (excess HR=0.75; 95% CI=0.52-1.08) with significant effects in patients aged ≥70years (local recurrence: HR=0.35; 95% CI=0.13-0.91; survival: excess HR=0.58; 95% CI=0.35-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates that when use of preoperative (C)RT is restricted to selected high-risk rectal cancers, preoperative (C)RT is associated with improved local recurrence, and possibly improved survival, when studied on a population-based level.

Correcting bias due to missing stage data in the non-parametric estimation of stage-specific net survival for colorectal cancer using multiple imputation

BACKGROUND

Population-based net survival by tumour stage at diagnosis is a key measure in cancer surveillance. Unfortunately, data on tumour stage are often missing for a non-negligible proportion of patients and the mechanism giving rise to the missingness is usually anything but completely at random. In this setting, restricting analysis to the subset of complete records gives typically biased results. Multiple imputation is a promising practical approach to the issues raised by the missing data, but its use in conjunction with the Pohar-Perme method for estimating net survival has not been formally evaluated.

METHODS

We performed a resampling study using colorectal cancer population-based registry data to evaluate the ability of multiple imputation, used along with the Pohar-Perme method, to deliver unbiased estimates of stage-specific net survival and recover missing stage information. We created 1000 independent data sets, each containing 5000 patients. Stage data were then made missing at random under two scenarios (30% and 50% missingness).

RESULTS

Complete records analysis showed substantial bias and poor confidence interval coverage. Across both scenarios our multiple imputation strategy virtually eliminated the bias and greatly improved confidence interval coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

In the presence of missing stage data complete records analysis often gives severely biased results. We showed that combining multiple imputation with the Pohar-Perme estimator provides a valid practical approach for the estimation of stage-specific colorectal cancer net survival. As usual, when the percentage of missing data is high the results should be interpreted cautiously and sensitivity analyses are recommended.

Factors related to the relative survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma in a population-based study in France: does socio-economic status have a role?

The survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma has increased during the last decade as a result of addition of anti-CD20 to anthracycline-based chemotherapy. Although the trend is encouraging, there are persistent differences in survival within and between the USA and European countries suggesting that non-biological factors play a role. Our aim was to investigate the influence of such factors on relative survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. We conducted a retrospective, multicenter, registry-based study in France on 1165 incident cases of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma between 2002 and 2008. Relative survival analyses were performed and missing data were controlled with the multiple imputation method. In a multivariate analysis, adjusted for age, sex and International Prognostic Index, we confirmed that time period was associated with a better 5-year relative survival. The registry area, the medical specialty of the care department (onco-hematology versus other), the time to travel to the nearest teaching hospital, the place of treatment (teaching versus not-teaching hospital -borderline significance), a comorbidity burden and marital status were independently associated with the 5-year relative survival. Adjusted for first-course treatment, inclusion in a clinical trial and treatment discussion in a multidisciplinary meeting were strongly associated with a better survival outcome. In contrast, socio-economic status (determined using the European Deprivation Index) was not associated with outcome. Despite therapeutic advances, various non-biological factors affected the relative survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. The notion of lymphoma-specific expertise seems to be essential to achieve optimal care management and reopens the debate regarding centralization of these patients’ care in hematology/oncology departments.

10 year survival after breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer in the Netherlands: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Investigators of registry-based studies report improved survival for breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer. As these studies did not present long-term overall and breast cancer-specific survival, the effect of breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy might be overestimated. In this study, we aimed to evaluate 10 year overall and breast cancer-specific survival after breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in Dutch women with early breast cancer.

METHODS

In this population-based study, we selected all women from the Netherlands Cancer Registry diagnosed with primary, invasive, stage T1-2, N0-1, M0 breast cancer between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2004, given either breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy or mastectomy, irrespective of axillary staging or dissection or use of adjuvant systemic therapy. Primary outcomes were 10 year overall survival in the entire cohort and breast cancer-specific survival in a representative subcohort of patients diagnosed in 2003 with characteristics similar to the entire cohort. We estimated breast cancer-specific survival by calculating distant metastasis-free and relative survival for every tumour and nodal category. We did multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for overall and distant metastasis-free survival. We estimated relative survival by calculating excess mortality ratios using life tables of the general population. We did multiple imputation to account for missing data.

FINDINGS

Of the 37 207 patients included in this study, 21 734 (58%) received breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy and 15 473 (42%) received mastectomy. The 2003 representative subcohort consisted of 7552 (20%) patients, of whom 4647 (62%) received breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy and 2905 (38%) received mastectomy. For both unadjusted and adjusted analysis accounting for various confounding factors, breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy was significantly associated with improved 10 year overall survival in the whole cohort overall compared with mastectomy (HR 0·51 [95% CI 0·49-0·53]; p<0·0001; adjusted HR 0·81 [0·78-0·85]; p<0·0001), and this improvement remained significant for all subgroups of different T and N stages of breast cancer. After adjustment for confounding variables, breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy did not significantly improve 10 year distant metastasis-free survival in the 2003 cohort overall compared with mastectomy (adjusted HR 0·88 [0·77-1·01]; p=0·07), but did in the T1N0 subgroup (adjusted 0·74 [0·58-0·94]; p=0·014). Breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy did significantly improve 10 year relative survival in the 2003 cohort overall (adjusted 0·76 [0·64-0·91]; p=0·003) and in the T1N0 subgroup (adjusted 0·60 [0·42-0·85]; p=0·004) compared with mastectomy.

INTERPRETATION

Adjusting for confounding variables, breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy showed improved 10 year overall and relative survival compared with mastectomy in early breast cancer, but 10 year distant metastasis-free survival was improved with breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy compared with mastectomy in the T1N0 subgroup only, indicating a possible role of confounding by severity. These results suggest that breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy is at least equivalent to mastectomy with respect to overall survival and may influence treatment decision making for patients with early breast cancer.

FUNDING

None.

Regional variations in cancer survival: Impact of tumour stage, socioeconomic status, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway

Cancer survival varies by place of residence, but it remains uncertain whether this reflects differences in tumour, patient and treatment characteristics (including tumour stage, indicators of socioeconomic status (SES), comorbidity and information on received surgery and radiotherapy) or possibly regional differences in the quality of delivered health care. National population-based data from the Cancer Registry of Norway were used to identify cancer patients diagnosed in 2002-2011 (n = 258,675). We investigated survival from any type of cancer (all cancer sites combined), as well as for the six most common cancers. The effect of adjusting for prognostic factors on regional variations in cancer survival was examined by calculating the mean deviation, defined by the mean absolute deviation of the relative excess risks across health services regions. For prostate cancer, the mean deviation across regions was 1.78 when adjusting for age and sex only, but decreased to 1.27 after further adjustment for tumour stage. For breast cancer, the corresponding mean deviations were 1.34 and 1.27. Additional adjustment for other prognostic factors did not materially change the regional variation in any of the other sites. Adjustment for tumour stage explained most of the regional variations in prostate cancer survival, but had little impact for other sites. Unexplained regional variations after adjusting for tumour stage, SES indicators, comorbidity and type of treatment in Norway may be related to regional inequalities in the quality of cancer care.

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence Rates by Histological Type in 1975-2008: A Population-Based Study in Osaka, Japan

Background

Monitoring trends in lung cancer incidence and mortality is important for the evaluation of cancer control activities. We investigated recent trends in age-standardized incidence rates by histological type of lung cancer in Osaka, Japan.

Methods

Cancer incidence data for 1975–2008 were obtained from the Osaka Cancer Registry. Lung cancer mortality data with population data in Osaka during 1975–2012 were obtained from vital statistics. We examined trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates for all histological types and age-standardized incidence rates by histological type and age group using a joinpoint regression model.

Results

The age-standardized incidence rate of lung cancer levelled off or slightly increased from 1975–2008, with an annual percentage change of 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1%–0.4%) for males and 1.1% (95% CI, 0.9%–1.3%) for females, and the mortality rate decreased by 0.9% (95% CI, 1.2%–0.7%) for males and 0.5% (95% CI, 0.8%–0.3%) for females. The incidence rates of squamous cell carcinoma (SQC) and small cell carcinoma (SMC) significantly decreased for both genders, whereas that of adenocarcinoma (ADC) significantly increased among almost all age groups in both genders.

Conclusions

The incidence rates of SQC and SMC decreased with the decline in smoking prevalence, which probably explains the change in trends in the incidence rates of lung cancer from the mid-1980s. However, the reason for the increase in ADC remains unclear. Therefore, trends in incidence rates of lung cancer should be carefully monitored, especially for ADC, and the associations between ADC and its possible risk factors should be studied.

Determinants of excess mortality following unprotected left main stem percutaneous coronary intervention

OBJECTIVE

For percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to the unprotected left main stem (UPLMS), there are limited long-term outcome data. We evaluated 5-year survival for UPLMS PCI cases taking into account background population mortality.

METHODS

A population-based registry of 10 682 cases of chronic stable angina (CSA), non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTEACS), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with (STEMI+CS) and without cardiogenic shock (STEMI-CS) who received UPLMS PCI from 2005 to 2014 were matched by age, sex, year of procedure and country to death data for the UK populace of 56.6 million people. Relative survival and excess mortality were estimated.

RESULTS

Over 26 105 person-years follow-up, crude 5-year relative survival was 93.8% for CSA, 73.1% for NSTEACS, 77.5% for STEMI-CS and 28.5% for STEMI+CS. The strongest predictor of excess mortality among CSA was renal failure (EMRR 6.73, 95% CI 4.06 to 11.15), and for NSTEACS and STEMI-CS was preprocedural ventilation (6.25, 5.05 to 7.75 and 6.92, 4.25 to 11.26, respectively). For STEMI+CS, the strongest predictor of excess mortality was preprocedural thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) 0 flow (2.78, 1.87 to 4.13), whereas multivessel PCI was associated with improved survival (0.74, 0.61 to 0.90).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term survival following UPLMS PCI for CSA was high, approached that of the background populace and was significantly predicted by co-morbidity. For NSTEACS and STEMI-CS, the requirement for preprocedural ventilation was the strongest determinant of excess mortality. By contrast, among STEMI+CS, in whom survival was poor, the strongest determinant was preprocedural TIMI flow. Future cardiovascular cohort studies of long-term mortality should consider the impact of non-cardiovascular deaths.

Is melanoma survival influenced by month of diagnosis?

BACKGROUND

Despite being a well-documented phenomenon, seasonal variation in the incidence of cutaneous melanoma is poorly understood, and data on the seasonality of melanoma survival are scarce. We sought to explore the seasonal variation in melanoma incidence and survival in Belgium and to assess the characteristics and outcomes of cases diagnosed during the seasonal peak.

METHODS

All cases of invasive cutaneous melanoma-patients over 15 years of age and registered by the Belgian Cancer Registry (BCR) from 2004 to 2009-were included (n=9782). Monthly variations in incidence were estimated by the ratio of the number of cases diagnosed each month to that diagnosed in January (Rmonth/January) using Nam's method. The observed and relative 5-year survival rates were adjusted on patient and tumour characteristics using Cox proportional hazards regression models and generalised linear models with a Poisson error structure, respectively.

RESULTS

A peak in melanoma incidence was observed in June (RJune/January=1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.54-1.73). The 5-year observed survival (OS) and relative survival (RS) rates were significantly higher for patients diagnosed in June compared with other months (OSJune=84%, 95%CI=81-86 versus OSOthermonths=79%, 95%CI=78-80; RSJune=93%, 95%CI=90-95 versus RSothermonths=87%, 95%CI=86-88). After adjustment, the 5-year OS remained significantly higher for patients diagnosed in June (hazard ratioJune=0.78, 95%CI=0.62-0.98); however, the 5-year RS was no longer significantly different for patients diagnosed in June compared with other months (relative excess riskJune=1.16, 95%CI=0.73-1.84).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated a seasonal variation in melanoma incidence in Belgium with a peak in June for the period 2004-2009. When adjusted for patient and tumour characteristics, patients diagnosed in June had higher observed survival rates, but relative survival rates did not differ. Our findings do not support an influence of season of diagnosis on melanoma prognosis.

Case-mix analysis and variation in rates of non-surgical treatment of older women with operable breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Non-surgical management of older women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive operable breast cancer is common in the UK, with up to 40 per cent of women aged over 70 years receiving primary endocrine therapy. Although this may be appropriate for frailer patients, for some it may result in treatment failure, contributing to the poor outcomes seen in this age group. Wide variation in the rates of non-operative management of breast cancer in older women exists across the UK. Case mix may explain some of this variation in practice.

METHODS

Data from two UK regional cancer registries were analysed to determine whether variation in treatment observed between 2002 and 2010 at hospital and clinician level persisted after adjustment for case mix. Expected case mix-adjusted surgery rates were derived by logistic regression using the variables age, proxy Charlson co-morbidity score, deprivation quintile, method of cancer detection, tumour size, stage, grade and node status.

RESULTS

Data on 17,129 women aged 70 years or more with ER-positive operable breast cancer were analysed. There was considerable variation in rates of surgery at both hospital and clinician level. Despite adjusting for case mix, this variation persisted at hospital level, although not at clinician level.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates variation in selection criteria for older women for operative treatment of early breast cancer, indicating that some older women may be undertreated or overtreated, and may partly explain the inferior disease outcomes in this age group. It emphasizes the urgent need for evidence-based guidelines for treatment selection criteria in older women with breast cancer.

Effect of time to sentinel-node biopsy on the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma

INTRODUCTION

In patients with primary cutaneous melanoma, there is generally a delay between excisional biopsy of the primary tumour and sentinel-node biopsy. The objective of this study is to analyse the prognostic implications of this delay.

PATIENTS AND METHOD

This was an observational, retrospective, cohort study in four tertiary referral hospitals. A total of 1963 patients were included. The factor of interest was the interval between the date of the excisional biopsy of the primary melanoma and the date of the sentinel-node biopsy (delay time) in the prognosis. The primary outcome was melanoma-specific survival and disease-free survival.

RESULTS

A delay time of 40 days or less (hazard ratio (HR), 1.7; confidence interval (CI), 1.2-2.5) increased Breslow thickness (Breslow ⩾ 2 mm, HR, > 3.7; CI, 1.4-10.7), ulceration (HR, 1.6; CI, 1.1-2.3), sentinel-node metastasis (HR, 2.9; CI, 1.9-4.2), and primary melanoma localised in the head or neck were independently associated with worse melanoma-specific survival (all P < 0.03). The stratified analysis showed that the effect of delay time was at the expense of the patients with a negative sentinel-node biopsy and without regression.

CONCLUSION

Early sentinel-node biopsy is associated with worse survival in patients with cutaneous melanoma.

A holistic comparative analysis of diagnostic tests for urothelial carcinoma: a study of Cxbladder Detect, UroVysion® FISH, NMP22® and cytology based on imputation of multiple datasets

Background

Comparing the relative utility of diagnostic tests is challenging when available datasets are small, partial or incomplete. The analytical leverage associated with a large sample size can be gained by integrating several small datasets to enable effective and accurate across-dataset comparisons. Accordingly, we propose a methodology for a holistic comparative analysis and ranking of cancer diagnostic tests through dataset integration and imputation of missing values, using urothelial carcinoma (UC) as a case study.

Methods

Five datasets comprising samples from 939 subjects, including 89 with UC, where up to four diagnostic tests (cytology, NMP22®, UroVysion® Fluorescence In-Situ Hybridization (FISH) and Cxbladder Detect) were integrated into a single dataset containing all measured records and missing values. The tests were firstly ranked using three criteria: sensitivity, specificity and a standard variable (feature) ranking method popularly known as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) index derived from the mean values for all subjects clinically known to have UC versus healthy subjects. Secondly, step-wise unsupervised and supervised imputation (the latter accounting for the ‘clinical truth’ as determined by cystoscopy) was performed using personalized modelling, k-nearest-neighbour methods, multiple logistic regression and multilayer perceptron neural networks. All imputation models were cross-validated by comparing their post-imputation predictive accuracy for UC with their pre-imputation accuracy. Finally, the post-imputation tests were re-ranked using the same three criteria.

Results

In both measured and imputed data sets, Cxbladder Detect ranked higher for sensitivity, and urine cytology a higher specificity, when compared with other UC tests. Cxbladder Detect consistently ranked higher than FISH and all other tests when SNR analyses were performed on measured, unsupervised and supervised imputed datasets. Supervised imputation resulted in a smaller cross-validation error. Cxbladder Detect was robust to imputation showing a 2 % difference in its predictive versus clinical accuracy, outperforming FISH, NMP22 and cytology.

Conclusion

All data analysed, pre- and post-imputation showed that Cxbladder Detect had higher SNR and outperformed all other comparator tests, including FISH. The methodology developed and validated for comparative ranking of the diagnostic tests for detecting UC, may be further applied to other cancer diagnostic datasets across population groups and multiple datasets.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-015-0036-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Diagnostic intervals and its association with breast, prostate, lung and colorectal cancer survival in England: historical cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Rapid diagnostic pathways for cancer have been implemented, but evidence whether shorter diagnostic intervals (time from primary care presentation to diagnosis) improves survival is lacking. Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified patients diagnosed with female breast (8,639), colorectal (5,912), lung (5,737) and prostate (1,763) cancers between 1998 and 2009, and aged >15 years. Presenting symptoms were classified as alert or non-alert, according to National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance. We used relative survival and excess risk modeling to determine associations between diagnostic intervals and five-year survival. The survival of patients with colorectal, lung and prostate cancer was greater in those with alert, compared with non-alert, symptoms, but findings were opposite for breast cancer. Longer diagnostic intervals were associated with lower mortality for colorectal and lung cancer patients with non-alert symptoms, (colorectal cancer: Excess Hazards Ratio, EHR >6 months vs <1 month: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.72-1.00; Lung cancer: EHR 3-6 months vs <1 month: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.80-0.95; EHR >6 months vs <1 month: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.74-0.89). Prostate cancer mortality was lower in patients with longer diagnostic intervals, regardless of type of presenting symptom. The association between diagnostic intervals and cancer survival is complex, and should take into account cancer site, tumour biology and clinical practice. Nevertheless, unnecessary delay causes patient anxiety and general practitioners should continue to refer patients with alert symptoms via the cancer pathways, and actively follow-up patients with non-alert symptoms in the community.