Transmission clustering drives the onward spread of the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Quebec

Frequently Transmission and Close Relationship Among Immigrants in the China-Myanmar Border Region Indicated by Molecular Transmission Analysis From a Cross-Sectional Data

Background

Accurate identification of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) and understanding the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission are necessary to develop targeted interventions to prevent HIV transmission. We evaluated the characteristics of antiretroviral therapy-naïve individuals who belonged to HIV-1 MTCs in the China-Myanmar border region to inform targeted effective HIV intervention.

Methods

Phylogenetic analyses were undertaken on HIV-1 pol sequences to characterize subtypes or circulating recombinant forms and identify MTCs. MTCs were defined as those with 2 or more sequences having bootstrap support > 80% and a pairwise gene distance less than or equal to 0.03. Factors correlated with MTCs were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. The chi-square test was used to compare differences between Chinese and Burmese participants belonging to MTCs.

Results

A total of 900 people had their pol gene successfully sequenced. Twenty-one MTCs were identified and included 110 individuals (12.2%). Individuals in MTCs were more likely to be Burmese [aOR = 2.24 (95% CI: 1.33, 3.79), P = 0.003], be younger [aOR = 0.34 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.58), P < 0.001 for age 26-50 vs. 25 years or younger], have a lower CD4 T cell count [aOR = 2.86 (95% CI: 1.34, 6.11), P = 0.007 for < 200 vs. 350 or greater], and have subtypes CRF07_BC or C [CRF07_BC: aOR = 7.88 (95% CI: 3.55, 17.52), P < 0.001; C: aOR = 2.38 (95% CI: 1.23, 4.62), P = 0.010 compared to CRF01_AE]. In MTCs, Burmese were younger (89.7 vs. 57.7% for age 25 years or younger), had a lower education level (41.0 vs. 8.5% for illiterate), were more likely to be infected through injection drug use (35.9 vs. 12.7%), and had a higher proportion of subtype BC (33.3 vs. 15.5%) and CRF01_AE (20.5 vs. 8.5%) compared to Chinese (P < 0.05 for all).

Conclusion

Burmese participants were more likely to belong to MTCs, and most MTCs had both Burmese and Chinese participants. These data highlight the bidirectional transmission of HIV-1 frequently transmission and close relationship among immigrants in the China-Myanmar border region. Local health departments should pay more attention to HIV screening and intervention to immigrants Burmese with the characteristics of younger age, having lower CD4 T cell count and infected with HIV subtypes CRF07_ BC or C.

Beyond HIV outbreaks: protocol, rationale and implementation of a prospective study quantifying the benefit of incorporating viral sequence clustering analysis into routine public health interventions

INTRODUCTION

HIV continues to have great impact on millions of lives. Novel methods are needed to disrupt HIV transmission networks. In the USA, public health departments routinely conduct contact tracing and partner services and interview newly HIV-diagnosed index cases to obtain information on social networks and guide prevention interventions. Sequence clustering methods able to infer HIV networks have been used to investigate and halt outbreaks. Incorporation of such methods into routine, not only outbreak-driven, contact tracing and partner services holds promise for further disruption of HIV transmissions.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Building on a strong academic-public health collaboration in Rhode Island, we designed and have implemented a state-wide prospective study to evaluate an intervention that incorporates real-time HIV molecular clustering information with routine contact tracing and partner services. We present the rationale and study design of our approach to integrate sequence clustering methods into routine public health interventions as well as related important ethical considerations. This prospective study addresses key questions about the benefit of incorporating a clustering analysis triggered intervention into the routine workflow of public health departments, going beyond outbreak-only circumstances. By developing an intervention triggered by, and incorporating information from, viral sequence clustering analysis, and evaluating it with a novel design that avoids randomisation while allowing for methods comparison, we are confident that this study will inform how viral sequence clustering analysis can be routinely integrated into public health to support the ending of the HIV pandemic in the USA and beyond.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was approved by both the Lifespan and Rhode Island Department of Health Human Subjects Research Institutional Review Boards and study results will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

A2B-COVID: A Tool for Rapidly Evaluating Potential SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Events

Identifying linked cases of infection is a critical component of the public health response to viral infectious diseases. In a clinical context, there is a need to make rapid assessments of whether cases of infection have arrived independently onto a ward, or are potentially linked via direct transmission. Viral genome sequence data are of great value in making these assessments, but are often not the only form of data available. Here, we describe A2B-COVID, a method for the rapid identification of potentially linked cases of COVID-19 infection designed for clinical settings. Our method combines knowledge about infection dynamics, data describing the movements of individuals, and evolutionary analysis of genome sequences to assess whether data collected from cases of infection are consistent or inconsistent with linkage via direct transmission. A retrospective analysis of data from two wards at Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust during the first wave of the pandemic showed qualitatively different patterns of linkage between cases on designated COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 wards. The subsequent real-time application of our method to data from the second epidemic wave highlights its value for monitoring cases of infection in a clinical context.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Unravelling Patterns of HIV Transmission towards Epidemic Control: The Quebec Experience (2002-2020)

Phylogenetics has been advanced as a structural framework to infer evolving trends in the regional spread of HIV-1 and guide public health interventions. In Quebec, molecular network analyses tracked HIV transmission dynamics from 2002-2020 using MEGA10-Neighbour-joining, HIV-TRACE, and MicrobeTrace methodologies. Phylogenetics revealed three patterns of viral spread among Men having Sex with Men (MSM, n = 5024) and heterosexuals (HET, n = 1345) harbouring subtype B epidemics as well as B and non-B subtype epidemics (n = 1848) introduced through migration. Notably, half of new subtype B infections amongst MSM and HET segregating as solitary transmissions or small cluster networks (2-5 members) declined by 70% from 2006-2020, concomitant to advances in treatment-as-prevention. Nonetheless, subtype B epidemic control amongst MSM was thwarted by the ongoing genesis and expansion of super-spreader large cluster variants leading to micro-epidemics, averaging 49 members/cluster at the end of 2020. The growth of large clusters was related to forward transmission cascades of untreated early-stage infections, younger at-risk populations, more transmissible/replicative-competent strains, and changing demographics. Subtype B and non-B subtype infections introduced through recent migration now surpass the domestic epidemic amongst MSM. Phylodynamics can assist in predicting and responding to active, recurrent, and newly emergent large cluster networks, as well as the cryptic spread of HIV introduced through migration.

Integrating Phylogenetic Biomarker Data and Qualitative Approaches: An example of HIV Transmission Clusters as a Sampling Frame for Semistructured Interviews and Implications for the COVID-19 Era

Mixed methods studies of human disease that combine surveillance, biomarker, and qualitative data can help elucidate what drives epidemiological trends. Viral genetic data are rarely coupled with other types of data due to legal and ethical concerns about patient privacy. We developed a novel approach to integrate phylogenetic and qualitative methods in order to better target HIV prevention efforts. The overall aim of our mixed methods study was to characterize HIV transmission clusters. We combined surveillance data with HIV genomic data to identify cases whose viruses share enough similarities to suggest a recent common source of infection or participation in linked transmission chains. Cases were recruited through a multi-phase process to obtain consent for recruitment to semi-structured interviews. Through linkage of viral genetic sequences with epidemiological data, we identified individuals in large transmission clusters, which then served as a sampling frame for the interviews. In this article, we describe the multi-phase process and the limitations and challenges encountered. Our approach contributes to the mixed methods research field by demonstrating that phylogenetic analysis and surveillance data can be harnessed to generate a sampling frame for subsequent qualitative data collection, using an explanatory sequential design. The process we developed also respected protections of patient confidentiality. The novel method we devised may offer an opportunity to implement a sampling frame that allows for the recruitment and interview of individuals in high-transmission clusters to better understand what contributes to spread of other infectious diseases, including COVID-19.

Lost and found: applying network analysis to public health contact tracing for HIV

Infectious disease surveillance is often case-based, focused on people diagnosed and their contacts in a predefined time window, and treated as independent across infections. Network analysis of partners and contacts joining multiple investigations and infections can reveal social or temporal trends, providing opportunities for epidemic control within broader networks. We constructed a sociosexual network of all HIV and early syphilis cases and contacts investigated among residents of 11 contiguous counties in North Carolina over a two-year period (2012-2013). We anchored the analysis on new HIV diagnoses ("indexes"), but also included nodes and edges from syphilis investigations that were within the same network component as any new HIV index. After adding syphilis investigations and deduplicating people included in multiple investigations (entity resolution), the final network comprised 1470 people: 569 HIV indexes, 700 contacts to HIV indexes who were not also new cases themselves, and 201 people who were either indexes or contacts in eligible syphilis investigations. Among HIV indexes, nearly half (48%; n = 273) had no located contacts during single-investigation contact tracing, though 25 (9%) of these were identified by other network members and thus not isolated in the final multiple investigation network. Constructing a sociosexual network from cases and contacts across multiple investigations mitigated some effects of unobserved partnerships underlying the HIV epidemic and demonstrated the HIV and syphilis overlap in these networks.

Go Where the Virus Is: An HIV Micro-epidemic Control Approach to Stop HIV Transmission

Essentially all HIV transmission is from people living with HIV who are not virally suppressed. An HIV micro-epidemic control approach that differentiates treatment support and prevention services for people living with HIV and their network members according to viral burden could optimize the impact of epidemic control efforts.

Mapping of HIV-1C Transmission Networks Reveals Extensive Spread of Viral Lineages Across Villages in Botswana Treatment-as-Prevention Trial

BACKGROUND

Phylogenetic mapping of HIV-1 lineages circulating across defined geographical locations is promising for better understanding HIV transmission networks to design optimal prevention interventions.

METHODS

We obtained near full-length HIV-1 genome sequences from people living with HIV (PLWH), including participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, conducted in 30 Botswana communities in 2013-2018. Phylogenetic relationships among viral sequences were estimated by maximum likelihood.

RESULTS

We obtained 6078 near full-length HIV-1C genome sequences from 6075 PLWH. We identified 984 phylogenetically distinct HIV-1 lineages (molecular HIV clusters) circulating in Botswana by mid-2018, with 2-27 members per cluster. Of these, dyads accounted for 62%, approximately 32% (n = 316) were found in single communities, and 68% (n = 668) were spread across multiple communities. Men in clusters were approximately 3 years older than women (median age 42 years, vs 39 years; P < .0001). In 65% of clusters, men were older than women, while in 35% of clusters women were older than men. The majority of identified viral lineages were spread across multiple communities.

CONCLUSIONS

A large number of circulating phylogenetically distinct HIV-1C lineages (molecular HIV clusters) suggests highly diversified HIV transmission networks across Botswana communities by 2018.

Empirical comparison of analytical approaches for identifying molecular HIV-1 clusters

Public health interventions guided by clustering of HIV-1 molecular sequences may be impacted by choices of analytical approaches. We identified commonly-used clustering analytical approaches, applied them to 1886 HIV-1 Rhode Island sequences from 2004-2018, and compared concordance in identifying molecular HIV-1 clusters within and between approaches. We used strict (topological support ≥ 0.95; distance 0.015 substitutions/site) and relaxed (topological support 0.80-0.95; distance 0.030-0.045 substitutions/site) thresholds to reflect different epidemiological scenarios. We found that clustering differed by method and threshold and depended more on distance than topological support thresholds. Clustering concordance analyses demonstrated some differences across analytical approaches, with RAxML having the highest (91%) mean summary percent concordance when strict thresholds were applied, and three (RAxML-, FastTree regular bootstrap- and IQ-Tree regular bootstrap-based) analytical approaches having the highest (86%) mean summary percent concordance when relaxed thresholds were applied. We conclude that different analytical approaches can yield diverse HIV-1 clustering outcomes and may need to be differentially used in diverse public health scenarios. Recognizing the variability and limitations of commonly-used methods in cluster identification is important for guiding clustering-triggered interventions to disrupt new transmissions and end the HIV epidemic.

Challenges in evaluating the use of viral sequence data to identify HIV transmission networks for public health

Great efforts are devoted to end the HIV epidemic as it continues to have profound public health consequences in the United States and throughout the world, and new interventions and strategies are continuously needed. The use of HIV sequence data to infer transmission networks holds much promise to direct public heath interventions where they are most needed. As these new methods are being implemented, evaluating their benefits is essential. In this paper, we recognize challenges associated with such evaluation, and make the case that overcoming these challenges is key to the use of HIV sequence data in routine public health actions to disrupt HIV transmission networks.

Exploring HIV-1 Transmission Dynamics by Combining Phylogenetic Analysis and Infection Timing

HIV-1 pol sequences obtained through baseline drug resistance testing of patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2017 were analyzed for genetic similarity. For 927 patients the information on genetic similarity was combined with demographic data and with information on the recency of infection. Overall, 48.3% of the patients were genetically linked with 11.4% belonging to a pair and 36.9% involved in a cluster of ≥3 members. The percentage of early diagnosed (≤4 months after infection) was 28.6%. Patients of Belgian origin were more frequently involved in transmission clusters (49.7% compared to 15.3%) and diagnosed earlier (37.4% compared to 12.2%) than patients of Sub-Saharan African origin. Of the infections reported to be locally acquired, 69.5% were linked (14.1% paired and 55.4% in a cluster). Equal parts of early and late diagnosed individuals (59.9% and 52.4%, respectively) were involved in clusters. The identification of a genetically linked individual for the majority of locally infected patients suggests a high rate of diagnosis in this population. Diagnosis however is often delayed for >4 months after infection increasing the opportunities for onward transmission. Prevention of local infection should focus on earlier diagnosis and protection of the still uninfected members of sexual networks with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected members.

Analysis of HIV-1 diversity, primary drug resistance and transmission networks in Croatia

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in treatment-naive HIV-1 infected persons from Croatia was investigated. We included 403 persons, representing 92.4% of all HIV-positive individuals entering clinical care in Croatia in 2014–2017. Overall prevalence of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was estimated at 16.4%. Resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), non-nucleoside RTI (NNRTIs) and protease inhibitors (PIs) was found in 11.4%, 6.7% and 2.5% of persons, respectively. Triple-class resistance was determined in 2.2% of individuals. In addition, a single case (1.0%) of resistance to integrase strand-transfer inhibitors (InSTIs) was found. Deep sequencing was performed on 48 randomly selected samples and detected additional TDR mutations in 6 cases. Phylogenetic inference showed that 347/403 sequences (86.1%) were part of transmission clusters and identified forward transmission of resistance in Croatia, even that of triple-class resistance. The largest TDR cluster of 53 persons with T215S was estimated to originate in the year 1992. Our data show a continuing need for pre-treatment HIV resistance testing in Croatia. Even though a low prevalence of resistance to InSTI was observed, surveillance of TDR to InSTI should be continued.

Prediction of HIV Transmission Cluster Growth With Statewide Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Prediction of HIV transmission cluster growth may help guide public health action. We developed a predictive model for cluster growth in North Carolina (NC) using routine HIV surveillance data.

METHODS

We identified putative transmission clusters with ≥2 members through pairwise genetic distances ≤1.5% from HIV-1 pol sequences sampled November 2010-December 2017 in NC. Clusters established by a baseline of January 2015 with any sequences sampled within 2 years before baseline were assessed for growth (new diagnoses) over 18 months. We developed a predictive model for cluster growth incorporating demographic, clinical, temporal, and contact tracing characteristics of baseline cluster members. We internally and temporally externally validated the final model in the periods January 2015-June 2016 and July 2016-December 2017.

RESULTS

Cluster growth was predicted by larger baseline cluster size, shorter time between diagnosis and HIV care entry, younger age, shorter time since the most recent HIV diagnosis, higher proportion with no named contacts, and higher proportion with HIV viremia. The model showed areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves of 0.82 and 0.83 in the internal and temporal external validation samples.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive model developed and validated here is a novel means of identifying HIV transmission clusters that may benefit from targeted HIV control resources.

Detection of HIV transmission clusters from phylogenetic trees using a multi-state birth-death model

HIV patients form clusters in HIV transmission networks. Accurate identification of these transmission clusters is essential to effectively target public health interventions. One reason for clustering is that the underlying contact network contains many local communities. We present a new maximum-likelihood method for identifying transmission clusters caused by community structure, based on phylogenetic trees. The method employs a multi-state birth–death (MSBD) model which detects changes in transmission rate, which are interpreted as the introduction of the epidemic into a new susceptible community, i.e. the formation of a new cluster. We show that the MSBD method is able to reliably infer the clusters and the transmission parameters from a pathogen phylogeny based on our simulations. In contrast to existing cutpoint-based methods for cluster identification, our method does not require that clusters be monophyletic nor is it dependent on the selection of a difficult-to-interpret cutpoint parameter. We present an application of our method to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The method is available as an easy-to-use R package.

Leveraging Phylogenetics to Understand HIV Transmission and Partner Notification Networks

BACKGROUND

Partner notification is an important component of public health test and treat interventions. To enhance this essential function, we assessed the potential for molecular methods to supplement routine partner notification and corroborate HIV networks.

METHODS

All persons diagnosed with HIV infection in Wake County, NC, during 2012-2013 and their disclosed sexual partners were included in a sexual network. A data set containing HIV-1 pol sequences collected in NC during 1997-2014 from 15,246 persons was matched to HIV-positive persons in the network and used to identify putative transmission clusters. Both networks were compared.

RESULTS

The partner notification network comprised 280 index cases and 383 sexual partners and high-risk social contacts (n = 131 HIV-positive). Of the 411 HIV-positive persons in the partner notification network, 181 (44%) did not match to a HIV sequence, 61 (15%) had sequences but were not identified in a transmission cluster, and 169 (41%) were identified in a transmission cluster. More than half (59%) of transmission clusters bridged sexual network partnerships that were not recognized in the partner notification; most of these clusters were dominated by men who have sex with men.

CONCLUSIONS

Partner notification and HIV sequence analysis provide complementary representations of the existent partnerships underlying the HIV transmission network. The partner notification network components were bridged by transmission clusters, particularly among components dominated by men who have sex with men. Supplementing the partner notification network with phylogenetic data highlighted avenues for intervention.

A Short-Term Assessment of Nascent HIV-1 Transmission Clusters Among Newly Diagnosed Individuals Using Envelope Sequence-Based Phylogenetic Analyses

The identification of transmission clusters (TCs) of HIV-1 using phylogenetic analyses can provide insights into viral transmission network and help improve prevention strategies. We compared the use of partial HIV-1 envelope fragment of 1,070 bp with its loop 3 (108 bp) to determine its utility in inferring HIV-1 transmission clustering. Serum samples of recently (n = 106) and chronically (n = 156) HIV-1-infected patients with status confirmed were sequenced. HIV-1 envelope nucleotide-based phylogenetic analyses were used to infer HIV-1 TCs. Those were constructed using ClusterPickerGUI_1.2.3 considering a pairwise genetic distance of ≤10% threshold. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between the demographic factors that were likely associated with HIV-1 clustering. Ninety-eight distinct consensus envelope sequences were subjected to phylogenetic analyses. Using a partial envelope fragment sequence, 42 sequences were grouped into 15 distinct small TCs while the V3 loop reproduces 10 clusters. The agreement between the partial envelope and the V3 loop fragments was significantly moderate with a Cohen's kappa (κ) coefficient of 0.59, p < .00001. The mean age (<38.8 years) and HIV-1 B subtype are two factors identified that were significantly associated with HIV-1 transmission clustering in the cohort, odds ratio (OR) = 0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI, 0.04-0.66), p = .002 and OR: 0.17, 95% CI (0.10-0.61), p = .011, respectively. The present study confirms that a partial fragment of the HIV-1 envelope sequence is a better predictor of transmission clustering. However, the loop 3 segment may be useful in screening purposes and may be more amenable to integration in surveillance programs.

HIITE: HIV-1 incidence and infection time estimator

Motivation

Around 2.1 million new HIV-1 infections were reported in 2015, alerting that the HIV-1 epidemic remains a significant global health challenge. Precise incidence assessment strengthens epidemic monitoring efforts and guides strategy optimization for prevention programs. Estimating the onset time of HIV-1 infection can facilitate optimal clinical management and identify key populations largely responsible for epidemic spread and thereby infer HIV-1 transmission chains. Our goal is to develop a genomic assay estimating the incidence and infection time in a single cross-sectional survey setting.

Results

We created a web-based platform, HIV-1 incidence and infection time estimator (HIITE), which processes envelope gene sequences using hierarchical clustering algorithms and informs the stage of infection, along with time since infection for incident cases. HIITE's performance was evaluated using 585 incident and 305 chronic specimens' envelope gene sequences collected from global cohorts including HIV-1 vaccine trial participants. HIITE precisely identified chronically infected individuals as being chronic with an error less than 1% and correctly classified 94% of recently infected individuals as being incident. Using a mixed-effect model, an incident specimen's time since infection was estimated from its single lineage diversity, showing 14% prediction error for time since infection. HIITE is the first algorithm to inform two key metrics from a single time point sequence sample. HIITE has the capacity for assessing not only population-level epidemic spread but also individual-level transmission events from a single survey, advancing HIV prevention and intervention programs.

Availability and implementation

Web-based HIITE and source code of HIITE are available at http://www.hayounlee.org/software.html.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Enhanced use of phylogenetic data to inform public health approaches to HIV among men who have sex with men

The multidimensional nature and continued evolution of HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) requires innovative intervention approaches. Strategies are needed that recognise the individual, social and structural factors driving HIV transmission; that can pinpoint networks with heightened transmission risk; and that can help target intervention in real time. HIV phylogenetics is a rapidly evolving field with strong promise for informing innovative responses to the HIV epidemic among MSM. Currently, HIV phylogenetic insights are providing new understandings of characteristics of HIV epidemics involving MSM, social networks influencing transmission, characteristics of HIV transmission clusters involving MSM, targets for antiretroviral and other prevention strategies and dynamics of emergent epidemics. Maximising the potential of HIV phylogenetics for HIV responses among MSM will require attention to key methodological challenges and ethical considerations, as well as resolving key implementation and scientific questions. Enhanced and integrated use of HIV surveillance, sociobehavioural and phylogenetic data resources are becoming increasingly critical for informing public health approaches to HIV among MSM.

A decade of sustained geographic spread of HIV infections among women in Durban, South Africa

Background

Fine scale geospatial analysis of HIV infection patterns can be used to facilitate geographically targeted interventions. Our objective was to use the geospatial technology to map age and time standardized HIV incidence rates over a period of 10 years to identify communities at high risk of HIV in the greater Durban area.

Methods

HIV incidence rates from 7557 South African women enrolled in five community-based HIV prevention trials (2002–2012) were mapped using participant household global positioning system (GPS) coordinates. Age and period standardized HIV incidence rates were calculated for 43 recruitment clusters across greater Durban. Bayesian conditional autoregressive areal spatial regression (CAR) was used to identify significant patterns and clustering of new HIV infections in recruitment communities.

Results

The total person-time in the cohort was 9093.93 years and 613 seroconversions were observed. The overall crude HIV incidence rate across all communities was 6·74 per 100PY (95% CI: 6·22–7·30). 95% of the clusters had HIV incidence rates greater than 3 per 100PY. The CAR analysis identified six communities with significantly high HIV incidence. Estimated relative risks for these clusters ranged from 1.34 to 1.70. Consistent with these results, age standardized HIV incidence rates were also highest in these clusters and estimated to be 10 or more per 100 PY.

Compared to women 35+ years old younger women were more likely to reside in the highest incidence areas (aOR: 1·51, 95% CI: 1·06–2·15; aOR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1·19–2·14 and aOR: 1·62, 95% CI: 1·2–2·18 for < 20, 20–24, 25–29 years old respectively). Partnership factors (2+ sex partners and being unmarried/not cohabiting) were also more common in the highest incidence clusters (aOR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.25–1.75 and aOR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.28–1.84 respectively).

Conclusion

Fine geospatial analysis showed a continuous, unrelenting, hyper HIV epidemic in most of the greater Durban region with six communities characterised by particularly high levels of HIV incidence. The results motivate for comprehensive community-based HIV prevention approaches including expanded access to PrEP. In addition, a higher concentration of HIV related services is required in the highest risk communities to effectively reach the most vulnerable populations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4080-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Phylogenetic transmission clusters among newly diagnosed antiretroviral drug-naïve patients with human immunodeficiency virus-1 in Korea: A study from 1999 to 2012

Population-level phylogenetic patterns reflect both transmission dynamics and genetic changes, which accumulate because of selection or drift. In this study, we determined whether a longitudinally sampled dataset derived from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1-infected individuals over a 14-year period (1999–2012) could shed light on the transmission processes involved in the initiation of the HIV-1 epidemic in Korea. In total, 927 sequences were acquired from 1999 to 2012; each sequence was acquired from an individual patient who had not received treatment. Sequences were used for drug resistance and phylogenetic analyses. Phylogenetic and other analyses were conducted using MEGA version 6.06 based on the GTR G+I parameter model and SAS. Of the 927 samples, 863 (93.1%) were classified as subtype B and 64 were classified as other subtypes. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that 104 of 927 patient samples (11.2%) were grouped into 37 clusters. Being part of a transmission cluster was significantly associated with subtype-B viruses, infection via sexual contact, and the infection of young males. Of all clusters, three (~8.1%) that comprised 10 individual samples (22.2% of 45 individuals) included at least one member with total transmitted drug resistance (TDR). In summary, HIV transmission cluster analyses can integrate laboratory data with behavioral data to enable the identification of key transmission patterns to develop tailored interventions aimed at interrupting transmission chains.

Projected effectiveness of HIV detection during early infection and rapid ART initiation among MSM and transgender women in Peru: A modeling study

Background

The Sabes study, a treatment as prevention intervention in Peru, tested the hypothesis that initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) early in HIV infection when viral load is high, would markedly reduce onward HIV transmission among high-risk men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW). We investigated the potential population-level benefits of detection of HIV early after acquisition and rapid initiation of ART.

Methods

We designed a transmission dynamic model to simulate the HIV epidemic among MSM and TW in Peru, calibrated to data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage from 2004 to 2011. We assessed the impact of an intervention starting in 2018 in which up to 50% of the new infections were diagnosed within three months of acquisition and initiated on ART within 1 month of diagnosis. We estimated the impact of the intervention over 20 years using the cumulative prevented fraction of new HIV infections compared to scenarios without intervention.

Findings

Our model suggests that only 19% of the infected MSM and TW are virally suppressed in 2018 and 35%-40% of the new HIV infections are transmitted from contacts with acutely-infected partners. An intervention reaching 10% of all acutely infected MSM and TW is projected to prevent 13.3% [Uncertainty interval: 11.9%-14.3%] of the new infections over 20 years and reduce HIV incidence in 2038 by 24%. Reaching 50% of all acutely infected MSM and TW will increase the prevalence of viral suppression in 2038 to 59% and prevent 41% of expected infections over 20 years. Reaching 50% of the high-risk MSM and TW in acute phase would reduce HIV incidence in 2038 by 60% and prevent 36% of new infections between 2018 and 2038.

Conclusions

Early detection of HIV infections and rapid initiation of ART among MSM is desirable as it would increase the effectiveness of the HIV prevention program in Peru. Targeting high-risk MSM and TW will be highly efficient.

Assessing the role of transmission chains in the spread of HIV-1 among men who have sex with men in Quebec, Canada

BACKGROUND

Phylogenetics has been used to investigate HIV transmission among men who have sex with men. This study compares several methodologies to elucidate the role of transmission chains in the dynamics of HIV spread in Quebec, Canada.

METHODS

The Quebec Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) genotyping program database now includes viral sequences from close to 4,000 HIV-positive individuals classified as Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs), collected between 1996 and early 2016. Assessment of chain expansion may depend on the partitioning scheme used, and so, we produce estimates from several methods: the conventional Bayesian and maximum likelihood-bootstrap methods, in combination with a variety of schemes for applying a maximum distance criterion, and two other algorithms, DM-PhyClus, a Bayesian algorithm that produces a measure of uncertainty for proposed partitions, and the Gap Procedure, a fast non-phylogenetic approach. Sequences obtained from individuals in the Primary HIV Infection (PHI) stage serve to identify incident cases. We focus on the period ranging from January 1st 2012 to February 1st 2016.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The analyses reveal considerable overlap between chain estimates obtained from conventional methods, thus leading to similar estimates of recent temporal expansion. The Gap Procedure and DM-PhyClus suggest however moderately different chains. Nevertheless, all estimates stress that longer older chains are responsible for a sizeable proportion of the sampled incident cases among MSMs. Curbing the HIV epidemic will require strategies aimed specifically at preventing such growth.

HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters in nine European countries and Canada: association with demographic and clinical factors

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of HIV-1 molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) is important, especially in large-scale datasets, for designing prevention programmes and public health intervention strategies. We used a large-scale HIV-1 sequence dataset from nine European HIV cohorts and one Canadian, to identify MTCs and investigate factors associated with the probability of belonging to MTCs.

METHODS

To identify MTCs, we applied maximum likelihood inferences on partial pol sequences from 8955 HIV-positive individuals linked to demographic and clinical data. MTCs were defined using two different criteria: clusters with bootstrap support >75% (phylogenetic confidence criterion) and clusters consisting of sequences from a specific region at a proportion of >75% (geographic criterion) compared to the total number of sequences within the network. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with MTC clustering.

RESULTS

Although 3700 (41%) sequences belonged to MTCs, proportions differed substantially by country and subtype, ranging from 7% among UK subtype C sequences to 63% among German subtype B sequences. The probability of belonging to an MTC was independently less likely for women than men (OR = 0.66; P < 0.001), older individuals (OR = 0.79 per 10-year increase in age; P < 0.001) and people of non-white ethnicity (OR = 0.44; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.70; P = 0.002 for black and 'other' versus white, respectively). It was also more likely among men who have sex with men (MSM) than other risk groups (OR = 0.62; P < 0.001 and OR = 0.69; P = 0.002 for people who inject drugs, and sex between men and women, respectively), subtype B (ORs 0.36-0.70 for A, C, CRF01 and CRF02 versus B; all P < 0.05), having a well-estimated date of seroconversion (OR = 1.44; P < 0.001), a later calendar year of sampling (ORs 2.01-2.61 for all post-2002 periods versus pre-2002; all P < 0.01), and being naïve to antiretroviral therapy at sampling (OR = 1.19; P = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion (>40%) of individuals belonged to MTCs. Notably, the HIV epidemic dispersal appears to be driven by subtype B viruses spread within MSM networks. Expansion of regional epidemics seems mainly associated with recent MTCs, rather than the growth of older, established ones. This information is important for designing prevention and public health intervention strategies.

Transmission dynamics among participants initiating antiretroviral therapy upon diagnosis of early acute HIV-1 infection in Thailand

OBJECTIVE

To assess transmission characteristics in a predominantly MSM cohort initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) immediately following diagnosis of acute HIV-1infection (AHI).

METHODS

A longitudinal study (2009-2017) was performed in participants with AHI (n = 439) attending a single clinic in Bangkok. Plasma samples obtained prior to ART were used to obtain HIV-1 pol sequences and combined with clinical and epidemiologic data to assess transmission dynamics (cluster formation and size) using phylogenetic analysis. Clusters were estimated using maximum likelihood, genetic distance of 1.5% and visual inspection. The potential transmitter(s) in a cluster was determined using time to viral suppression and interview data.

RESULTS

The cohort was predominantly MSM (93%) and infected with HIV-1 CRF01_AE (87%). Medians (ranges) for age and viral load prior to ART were 26 (18-70) years and 5.9 (2.5-8.2) log10 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml. Median time from history of HIV-1 exposure to diagnosis was 19 (3-61) days. Viral suppression was observed in 388 of 412 (94%) participants at a median time of 12 weeks following ART. Twenty-six clusters with median cluster size of 2 (2-5) representing 62 of 439 (14%) participants were observed. Younger age was associated with cluster formation: median 28 versus 30 years for unique infections (P = 0.01). A potential transmitter was identified in 11 of 26 (42%) clusters.

CONCLUSION

Despite high rates of viral suppression following diagnosis and treatment of AHI within a cohort of young Thai MSM, HIV-1 transmission continued, reflecting the need to expand awareness and treatment access to the entire MSM population.

New Challenges in HIV Research: Combining Phylogenetic Cluster Size and Epidemiological Data

An exciting new direction in HIV research is centered on using molecular phylogenetics to understand the social and behavioral drivers of HIV transmission. SPOT was an intervention designed to offer HIV point of care testing to men who have sex with men at a community-based site in Montreal, Canada; at the time of testing, a research questionnaire was also deployed to collect data on socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics of participating men. The men taking part in SPOT could be viewed, from the research perspective, as having been recruited via a convenience sample. Among men who were found to be HIV positive, phylogenetic cluster size was measured using a large cohort of HIV-positive individuals in the province of Quebec. The cluster size is likely subject to under-estimation. In this paper, we use SPOT data to evaluate the association between HIV transmission cluster size and the number of sex partners for MSM, after adjusting for the SPOT sampling scheme and correcting for measurement error in cluster size by leveraging external data sources. The sampling weights for SPOT participants were calculated from another study of men who have sex with men in Montreal by fitting a weight-adjusted model, whereas measurement error was corrected using the simulation-extrapolation conditional on covariates approach.

DM-PhyClus: a Bayesian phylogenetic algorithm for infectious disease transmission cluster inference

Background

Conventional phylogenetic clustering approaches rely on arbitrary cutpoints applied a posteriori to phylogenetic estimates. Although in practice, Bayesian and bootstrap-based clustering tend to lead to similar estimates, they often produce conflicting measures of confidence in clusters. The current study proposes a new Bayesian phylogenetic clustering algorithm, which we refer to as DM-PhyClus (Dirichlet-Multinomial Phylogenetic Clustering), that identifies sets of sequences resulting from quick transmission chains, thus yielding easily-interpretable clusters, without using any ad hoc distance or confidence requirement.

Results

Simulations reveal that DM-PhyClus can outperform conventional clustering methods, as well as the Gap procedure, a pure distance-based algorithm, in terms of mean cluster recovery. We apply DM-PhyClus to a sample of real HIV-1 sequences, producing a set of clusters whose inference is in line with the conclusions of a previous thorough analysis.

Conclusions

DM-PhyClus, by eliminating the need for cutpoints and producing sensible inference for cluster configurations, can facilitate transmission cluster detection. Future efforts to reduce incidence of infectious diseases, like HIV-1, will need reliable estimates of transmission clusters. It follows that algorithms like DM-PhyClus could serve to better inform public health strategies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12859-018-2347-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The finding of casual sex partners on the internet, methamphetamine use for sexual pleasure, and incidence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Bangkok, Thailand: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The finding of casual sex partners on the internet and methamphetamine use have been described as risk factors for HIV infection in men who have sex with men (MSM). However, the interplay between these factors has not been studied prospectively in one design. This study aims to determine the associations between finding casual sex partners on the internet and incident methamphetamine use and HIV infection.

METHODS

In this observational cohort study of Thai MSM, we recruited Bangkok residents aged 18 years or older with a history of penetrative male-to-male sex in the past 6 months. Baseline and follow-up visits were done at a dedicated study clinic in central Bangkok. Men were tested for HIV infection at every study visit and for sexually transmitted infections at baseline. Baseline demographics and HIV risk behaviour information were collected at every visit by audio computer-assisted self-interview. We used a descriptive model using bivariate odds ratios to elucidate the order of risk factors in the causal pathway to HIV incidence and methamphetamine use. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to evaluate covariates for incident methamphetamine use and HIV infection.

FINDINGS

From April 6, 2006, to Dec 31, 2010, 1977 men were screened and 1764 were found eligible. 1744 men were enrolled, of whom 1372 tested negative for HIV and were followed up until March 20, 2012. Per 100 person-years of follow-up, incidence of methamphetamine use was 3·8 (128 events in 3371 person-years) and incidence of HIV infection was 6·0 (212 events in 3554 person-years). In our descriptive model, methamphetamine use, anal sex, and various other behaviours cluster together but their effect on HIV incidence was mediated by the occurrence of ulcerative sexually transmitted infections. Dual risk factors for both incident methamphetamine use and HIV infection were younger age and finding casual sex partners on the internet. Having ever received money for sex was predictive for incident methamphetamine use; living alone or with a housemate, recent anal sex, and ulcerative sexually transmitted infections at baseline were predictive for incident HIV infection.

INTERPRETATION

In MSM in Bangkok, casual sex partner recruitment on the internet, methamphetamine use, and sexually transmitted infections have important roles in sustaining the HIV epidemic. Virtual HIV prevention education, drug use harm reduction, and biomedical HIV prevention methods, such as pre-exposure prophylaxis, could help to reduce or revert the HIV epidemic among MSM in Bangkok.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Johns Hopkins Fogarty AIDS International Training and Research Program.

Opportunities for Enhanced Strategic Use of Surveys, Medical Records, and Program Data for HIV Surveillance of Key Populations: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Normative guidelines from the World Health Organization recommend tracking strategic information indicators among key populations. Monitoring progress in the global response to the HIV epidemic uses indicators put forward by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. These include the 90-90-90 targets that require a realignment of surveillance data, routinely collected program data, and medical record data, which historically have developed separately.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to describe current challenges for monitoring HIV-related strategic information indicators among key populations ((men who have sex with men [MSM], people in prisons and other closed settings, people who inject drugs, sex workers, and transgender people) and identify future opportunities to enhance the use of surveillance data, programmatic data, and medical record data to describe the HIV epidemic among key populations and measure the coverage of HIV prevention, care, and treatment programs.

METHODS

To provide a historical perspective, we completed a scoping review of the expansion of HIV surveillance among key populations over the past three decades. To describe current efforts, we conducted a review of the literature to identify published examples of SI indicator estimates among key populations. To describe anticipated challenges and future opportunities to improve measurement of strategic information indicators, particularly from routine program and health data, we consulted participants of the Third Global HIV Surveillance Meeting in Bangkok, where the 2015 World Health Organization strategic information guidelines were launched.

RESULTS

There remains suboptimal alignment of surveillance and programmatic data, as well as routinely collected medical records to facilitate the reporting of the 90-90-90 indicators for HIV among key populations. Studies (n=3) with estimates of all three 90-90-90 indicators rely on cross-sectional survey data. Programmatic data and medical record data continue to be insufficiently robust to provide estimates of the 90-90-90 targets for key populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Current reliance on more active data collection processes, including key population-specific surveys, remains warranted until the quality and validity of passively collected routine program and medical record data for key populations is optimized.

Phylogenetic analysis of the Belgian HIV-1 epidemic reveals that local transmission is almost exclusively driven by men having sex with men despite presence of large African migrant communities

To improve insight in the drivers of local HIV-1 transmission in Belgium, phylogenetic, demographic, epidemiological and laboratory data from patients newly diagnosed between 2013 and 2015 were combined and analyzed. Characteristics of clustered patients, paired patients and patients on isolated branches in the phylogenetic tree were compared. The results revealed an overall high level of clustering despite the short time frame of sampling, with 47.6% of all patients having at least one close genetic counterpart and 36.6% belonging to a cluster of 3 or more individuals. Compared to patients on isolated branches, patients in clusters more frequently reported being infected in Belgium (95.1% vs. 47.6%; p < 0.001), were more frequently men having sex with men (MSM) (77.9% vs. 42.8%; p < 0.001), of Belgian origin (68.2% vs. 32.9%; p < 0.001), male gender (92.6% vs. 65.8%; p < 0.001), infected with subtype B or F (87.8% vs. 43.4%; p < 0.001) and diagnosed early after infection (55.4% vs. 29.0%; p < 0.001). Strikingly, Sub-Saharan Africans (SSA), overall representing 27.1% of the population were significantly less frequently found in clusters than on individual branches (6.0% vs. 41.8%; p < 0.001). Of the SSA that participated in clustered transmission, 66.7% were MSM and this contrasts sharply with the overall 12.0% of SSA reporting MSM. Transmission clusters with SSA were more frequently non-B clusters than transmission clusters without SSA (44.4% versus 18.2%). MSM-driven clusters with patients of mixed origin may account, at least in part, for the increasing spread of non-B subtypes to the native MSM population, a cross-over that has been particularly successful for subtype F and CRF02_AG. The main conclusions from this study are that clustered transmission in Belgium remains almost exclusively MSM-driven with very limited contribution of SSA. There were no indications for local ongoing clustered transmission of HIV-1 among SSA.

HIV-1 strains belonging to large phylogenetic clusters show accelerated escape from integrase inhibitors in cell culture compared with viral isolates from singleton/small clusters

Objectives: Viral phylogenetics revealed two patterns of HIV-1 spread among MSM in Quebec. While most HIV-1 strains (n = 2011) were associated with singleton/small clusters (cluster size 1–4), 30 viral lineages formed large networks (cluster size 20–140), contributing to 42% of diagnoses between 2011 and 2015. Herein, tissue culture selections ascertained if large cluster lineages possessed higher replicative fitness than singleton/small cluster isolates, allowing for viral escape from integrase inhibitors.

Methods: Primary HIV-1 isolates from large 20+ cluster (n = 11) or singleton/small cluster (n = 6) networks were passagedin vitro in escalating concentrations of dolutegravir, elvitegravir and lamivudine for 24–36 weeks. Sanger and deep sequencing assessed genotypic changes under selective drug pressure.

Results: Large cluster HIV-1 isolates selected for resistance to dolutegravir, elvitegravir and lamivudine faster than HIV-1 strains forming small clusters. With dolutegravir, large cluster HIV-1 variants acquired solitary R263K (n = 7), S153Y (n = 1) or H51Y (n = 1) mutations as the dominant quasi-species within 8–12 weeks as compared with small cluster lineages where R263K (n = 1/6), S153Y (1/6) or WT species (4/6) were observed after 24 weeks. Interestingly, dolutegravir-associated mutations compromised viral replicative fitness, precluding escalations in concentrations beyond 5–10 nM. With elvitegravir, large cluster variants more rapidly acquired first mutations (T66I, A92G, N155H or S147G) by week 8 followed by sequential accumulation of multiple mutations leading to viral escape (>10 μM) by week 24.

Conclusions: Further studies are needed to understand virological features of large cluster viruses that may favour their transmissibility, replicative competence and potential to escape selective antiretroviral drug pressure.

Genotypic and Phylogenetic Insights on Prevention of the Spread of HIV-1 and Drug Resistance in "Real-World" Settings

HIV continues to spread among vulnerable heterosexual (HET), Men-having-Sex with Men (MSM) and intravenous drug user (IDU) populations, influenced by a complex array of biological, behavioral and societal factors. Phylogenetics analyses of large sequence datasets from national drug resistance testing programs reveal the evolutionary interrelationships of viral strains implicated in the dynamic spread of HIV in different regional settings. Viral phylogenetics can be combined with demographic and behavioral information to gain insights on epidemiological processes shaping transmission networks at the population-level. Drug resistance testing programs also reveal emergent mutational pathways leading to resistance to the 23 antiretroviral drugs used in HIV-1 management in low-, middle- and high-income settings. This article describes how genotypic and phylogenetic information from Quebec and elsewhere provide critical information on HIV transmission and resistance, Cumulative findings can be used to optimize public health strategies to tackle the challenges of HIV in “real-world” settings.

HIV-1 envelope sequence-based diversity measures for identifying recent infections

Identifying recent HIV-1 infections is crucial for monitoring HIV-1 incidence and optimizing public health prevention efforts. To identify recent HIV-1 infections, we evaluated and compared the performance of 4 sequence-based diversity measures including percent diversity, percent complexity, Shannon entropy and number of haplotypes targeting 13 genetic segments within the env gene of HIV-1. A total of 597 diagnostic samples obtained in 2013 and 2015 from recently and chronically HIV-1 infected individuals were selected. From the selected samples, 249 (134 from recent versus 115 from chronic infections) env coding regions, including V1-C5 of gp120 and the gp41 ectodomain of HIV-1, were successfully amplified and sequenced by next generation sequencing (NGS) using the Illumina MiSeq platform. The ability of the four sequence-based diversity measures to correctly identify recent HIV infections was evaluated using the frequency distribution curves, median and interquartile range and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Comparing the median and interquartile range and evaluating the frequency distribution curves associated with the 4 sequence-based diversity measures, we observed that the percent diversity, number of haplotypes and Shannon entropy demonstrated significant potential to discriminate recent from chronic infections (p<0.0001). Using the AUC of ROC analysis, only the Shannon entropy measure within three HIV-1 env segments could accurately identify recent infections at a satisfactory level. The env segments were gp120 C2_1 (AUC = 0.806), gp120 C2_3 (AUC = 0.805) and gp120 V3 (AUC = 0.812). Our results clearly indicate that the Shannon entropy measure represents a useful tool for predicting HIV-1 infection recency.

Setting the stage for expanding HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis use in Canada

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to disproportionately affect vulnerable populations in Canada; particularly men who have sex with men (MSM). Novel HIV prevention strategies have recently expanded from the use of non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis (nPEP) after high risk exposures to the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in which individuals reduce risk of HIV infection through use of combination antiretrovirals taken prior to risk exposure. With approval of tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for use as PrEP only in early 2016, and with limited public funding to date, uptake in Canada is in its preliminary stages. These biomedical prevention strategies have proven efficacy for MSM, and they may have potential for other at-risk populations. With generic formulations of TDF/FTC now available in Canada, there is an opportunity for widespread implementation. Expanding knowledge of health care providers across Canada on how best to assess, refer for or prescribe and monitor PrEP will contribute to the current efforts to reach the global goal of eliminating new HIV infections.

Acute HIV infection detection and immediate treatment estimated to reduce transmission by 89% among men who have sex with men in Bangkok

Introduction: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces HIV transmission. Despite increased ART coverage, incidence remains high among men who have sex with men (MSM) in many places. Acute HIV infection (AHI) is characterized by high viral replication and increased infectiousness. We estimated the feasible reduction in transmission by targeting MSM with AHI for early ART.

Methods: We recruited a cohort of 88 MSM with AHI in Bangkok, Thailand, who initiated ART immediately. A risk calculator based on viral load and reported behaviour, calibrated to Thai epidemiological data, was applied to estimate the number of onwards transmissions. This was compared with the expected number without early interventions.

Results: Forty of the MSM were in 4th-generation AHI stages 1 and 2 (4thG stage 1, HIV nucleic acid testing (NAT)+/4thG immunoassay (IA)-/3rdG IA–; 4thG stage 2, NAT+/4thG IA+/3rdG IA–) while 48 tested positive on third-generation IA but had negative or indeterminate western blot (4thG stage 3). Mean plasma HIV RNA was 5.62 log¹⁰ copies/ml. Any condomless sex in the four months preceding the study was reported by 83.7%, but decreased to 21.2% by 24 weeks on ART. After ART, 48/88 (54.6%) attained HIV RNA <50 copies/ml by week 8, increasing to 78/87 (89.7%), and 64/66 (97%) at weeks 24 and 48, respectively. The estimated number of onwards transmissions in the first year of infection would have been 27.3 (95% credible interval: 21.7–35.3) with no intervention, 8.3 (6.4–11.2) with post-diagnosis behaviour change only, 5.9 (4.4–7.9) with viral load reduction only and 3.1 (2.4–4.3) with both. The latter was associated with an 88.7% (83.8–91.1%) reduction in transmission.

Conclusions: Disproportionate HIV transmission occurs during AHI. Diagnosis of AHI with early ART initiation can substantially reduce onwards transmission.

A model-based clustering method to detect infectious disease transmission outbreaks from sequence variation

Clustering infections by genetic similarity is a popular technique for identifying potential outbreaks of infectious disease, in part because sequences are now routinely collected for clinical management of many infections. A diverse number of nonparametric clustering methods have been developed for this purpose. These methods are generally intuitive, rapid to compute, and readily scale with large data sets. However, we have found that nonparametric clustering methods can be biased towards identifying clusters of diagnosis—where individuals are sampled sooner post-infection—rather than the clusters of rapid transmission that are meant to be potential foci for public health efforts. We develop a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering based on fitting a Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP), which represents the evolution of transmission rates along the tree relating different infections. We evaluated this model-based method alongside five nonparametric clustering methods using both simulated and actual HIV sequence data sets. For simulated clusters of rapid transmission, the MMPP clustering method obtained higher mean sensitivity (85%) and specificity (91%) than the nonparametric methods. When we applied these clustering methods to published sequences from a study of HIV-1 genetic clusters in Seattle, USA, we found that the MMPP method categorized about half (46%) as many individuals to clusters compared to the other methods. Furthermore, the mean internal branch lengths that approximate transmission rates were significantly shorter in clusters extracted using MMPP, but not by other methods. We determined that the computing time for the MMPP method scaled linearly with the size of trees, requiring about 30 seconds for a tree of 1,000 tips and about 20 minutes for 50,000 tips on a single computer. This new approach to genetic clustering has significant implications for the application of pathogen sequence analysis to public health, where it is critical to robustly and accurately identify clusters for the most cost-effective deployment of outbreak management and prevention resources.

Many pathogens evolve so rapidly that they accumulate genetic differences within a host before becoming transmitted to the next host. Consequently, clusters of sampled infections with nearly identical genomes may reveal outbreaks of recent or ongoing transmissions. There is rapidly growing interest in using model-free genetic clustering methods to guide public health responses to epidemics in near real-time, including HIV, Ebola virus and tuberculosis. However, we show that current methods are relatively ineffective at detecting transmission outbreaks; instead, they are predominantly influenced by how infections are sampled from the population. We describe a fundamentally new approach to genetic clustering that is based on modelling changes in transmission rates during the spread of the epidemic. We use simulated and real pathogen sequence data sets to demonstrate that this model-based approach is substantially more effective for detecting transmission outbreaks, and remains fast enough for real-time applications to large sequence databases.

High prevalence and diversity of HIV-1 non-B genetic forms due to immigration in southern Spain: A phylogeographic approach

Phylogenetic studies are a valuable tool to understand viral transmission patterns and the role of immigration in HIV-1 spread. We analyzed the spatio-temporal relationship of different HIV-1 non-B subtype variants over time using phylogenetic analysis techniques. We collected 693 pol (PR+RT) sequences that were sampled from 2005 to 2012 from naïve patients in different hospitals in southern Spain. We used REGA v3.0 to classify them into subtypes and recombinant forms, which were confirmed by phylogenetic analysis through maximum likelihood (ML) using RAxML. For the main HIV-1 non-B variants, publicly available, genetically similar sequences were sought using HIV-BLAST. The presence of HIV-1 lineages circulating in our study population was established using ML and Bayesian inference (BEAST v1.7.5) and transmission networks were identified. We detected 165 (23.4%) patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants: 104 (63%) with recombinant viruses in pol: CRF02_AG (71, 43%), CRF14_BG (8, 4.8%), CRF06_cpx (5, 3%) and nine other recombinant forms (11, 6.7%) and unique recombinants (9, 5.5%). The rest (61, 37%) were infected with non-recombinant subtypes: A1 (30, 18.2%), C (7, [4.2%]), D (3, [1.8%]), F1 (9, 5.5%) and G (12, 7.3%). Most patients infected with HIV-1 non-B variants were men (63%, p < 0.001) aged over 35 (73.5%, p < 0.001), heterosexuals (92.2%, p < 0.001), from Africa (59.5%, p < 0.001) and living in the El Ejido area (62.4%, p<0.001). We found lineages of epidemiological relevance (mainly within Subtype A1), imported primarily through female sex workers from East Europe. We detected 11 transmission clusters of HIV-1 non-B Subtypes, which included patients born in Spain in half of them. We present the phylogenetic profiles of the HIV-1 non-B variants detected in southern Spain, and explore their putative geographical origins. Our data reveals a high HIV-1 genetic diversity likely due to the import of viral lineages that circulate in other countries. The highly immigrated El Ejido area acts as a gateway through which different subtypes are introduced into other regions, hence the importance of setting up epidemiological control measures to prevent future outbreaks.

Comparison of cluster-based and source-attribution methods for estimating transmission risk using large HIV sequence databases

Phylogenetic clustering of HIV sequences from a random sample of patients can reveal epidemiological transmission patterns, but interpretation is hampered by limited theoretical support and statistical properties of clustering analysis remain poorly understood. Alternatively, source attribution methods allow fitting of HIV transmission models and thereby quantify aspects of disease transmission. A simulation study was conducted to assess error rates of clustering methods for detecting transmission risk factors. We modeled HIV epidemics among men having sex with men and generated phylogenies comparable to those that can be obtained from HIV surveillance data in the UK. Clustering and source attribution approaches were applied to evaluate their ability to identify patient attributes as transmission risk factors. We find that commonly used methods show a misleading association between cluster size or odds of clustering and covariates that are correlated with time since infection, regardless of their influence on transmission. Clustering methods usually have higher error rates and lower sensitivity than source attribution method for identifying transmission risk factors. But neither methods provide robust estimates of transmission risk ratios. Source attribution method can alleviate drawbacks from phylogenetic clustering but formal population genetic modeling may be required to estimate quantitative transmission risk factors.

Transmission network characteristics based on env and gag sequences from MSM during acute HIV-1 infection in Beijing, China

Molecular epidemiology can be used to identify human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission clusters, usually using pol sequence for analysis. In the present study, we explored appropriate parameters to construct a simple network using HIV env and gag sequences instead of pol sequences for constructing a phylogenetic tree and a genetic transmission subnetwork, which were used to identify individuals with many potential transmission links and to explore the evolutionary dynamics of the virus among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Beijing. We investigated 70 acute HIV-1 infections, which consisted of HIV-1 subtype B (15.71%), the circulating recombinant forms CRF01_AE (47.14%), CRF07_BC (21.43%), CRF55_01B (1.43%), and CRF65_cpx (4.29%), and an unknown subtype (10.00%). By exploring the similarities and differences among HIV env, gag and pol sequences in describing the dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF01_AE transmission subnetwork among Beijing MSM, we found that four key points of the env sequences (strains E-2011_BJ.CY_16014, E-2011_BJ.FT_16017, E-2011_BJ.TZ_16064, and E-2011_BJ.XW_16035) contained more transmission information than gag sequences (three key points: strains G-2011_BJ.CY_16014, G-2011_BJ.FT_16017, and G-2011_BJ.XW_16035) and pol sequences (two key points: strains P-2011_BJ.CY_16014 and P-2011_BJ.XW_16035). Although the env and gag sequence results were similar to pol sequences in describing the dynamics of the HIV-1 CRF01_AE transmission subnetwork, we were able to obtain more precise information, allowing identification of key points of subnetwork expansion, based on HIV env and gag sequences instead of pol sequences. Taken together, the key points we found will improve our current understanding of how HIV spreads between MSM populations in Beijing and help to better target preventative interventions for promoting public health.

Clinical and public health implications of acute and early HIV detection and treatment: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

The unchanged global HIV incidence may be related to ignoring acute HIV infection (AHI). This scoping review examines diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications of identifying and treating persons with AHI.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, in addition to hand-review of key journals identifying research pertaining to AHI detection and treatment. We focused on the relative contribution of AHI to transmission and the diagnostic, clinical, and public health implications. We prioritized research from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published in the last fifteen years.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Extensive AHI research and limited routine AHI detection and treatment have begun in LMIC. Diagnostic challenges include ease-of-use, suitability for application and distribution in LMIC, and throughput for high-volume testing. Risk score algorithms have been used in LMIC to screen for AHI among individuals with behavioural and clinical characteristics more often associated with AHI. However, algorithms have not been implemented outside research settings. From a clinical perspective, there are substantial immunological and virological benefits to identifying and treating persons with AHI - evading the irreversible damage to host immune systems and seeding of viral reservoirs that occurs during untreated acute infection. The therapeutic benefits require rapid initiation of antiretrovirals, a logistical challenge in the absence of point-of-care testing. From a public health perspective, AHI diagnosis and treatment is critical to: decrease transmission via viral load reduction and behavioural interventions; improve pre-exposure prophylaxis outcomes by avoiding treatment initiation for HIV-seronegative persons with AHI; and, enhance partner services via notification for persons recently exposed or likely transmitting.

CONCLUSIONS

There are undeniable clinical and public health benefits to AHI detection and treatment, but also substantial diagnostic and logistical barriers to implementation and scale-up. Effective early ART initiation may be critical for HIV eradication efforts, but widespread use in LMIC requires simple and accurate diagnostic tools. Implementation research is critical to facilitate sustainable integration of AHI detection and treatment into existing health systems and will be essential for prospective evaluation of testing algorithms, point-of-care diagnostics, and efficacious and effective first-line regimens.

The Effect of Same-Day Observed Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Viral Load and Treatment Outcomes in a US Public Health Setting

BACKGROUND

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is typically begun weeks after HIV diagnosis. We assessed the acceptability, feasibility, safety, and efficacy of initiating ART on the same day as diagnosis.

METHODS

We studied a clinic-based cohort consisting of consecutive patients who were referred with new HIV diagnosis between June 2013 and December 2014. A subset of patients with acute or recent infection (<6 months) or CD4 <200 were managed according to a "RAPID" care initiation protocol. An intensive, same-day appointment included social needs assessment; medical provider evaluation; and a first ART dose offered after laboratories were drawn. Patient acceptance of ART, drug toxicities, drug resistance, and time to viral suppression outcomes were compared between RAPID participants and contemporaneous patients (who were not offered the program), and with an historical cohort.

RESULTS

Among 86 patients, 39 were eligible and managed on the RAPID protocol. Thirty-seven (94.9%) of 39 in RAPID began ART within 24 hours. Minor toxicity with the initial regimen occurred in 2 (5.1%) of intervention patients versus none in the nonintervention group. Loss to follow-up was similar in intervention (10.3%) and nonintervention patients (14.9%) during the study. Time to virologic suppression (<200 copies HIV RNA/mL) was significantly faster (median 1.8 months) among intervention-managed patients when compared with patients treated in the same clinic under prior recommendations for universal ART (4.3 months; P = 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment for HIV infection can be started on the day of diagnosis without impacting the safety or acceptability of ART. Same-day ART may shorten the time to virologic suppression.

Large cluster outbreaks sustain the HIV epidemic among MSM in Quebec

OBJECTIVE

HIV-1 epidemics among MSM remain unchecked despite advances in treatment and prevention paradigms. This study combined viral phylogenetic and behavioural risk data to better understand underlying factors governing the temporal growth of the HIV epidemic among MSM in Quebec (2002-2015).

METHODS

Phylogenetic analysis of pol sequences was used to deduce HIV-1 transmission dynamics (cluster size, size distribution and growth rate) in first genotypes of treatment-naïve MSM (2002-2015, n = 3901). Low sequence diversity of first genotypes (0-0.44% mixed base calls) was used as an indication of early-stage infection. Behavioural risk data were obtained from the Montreal rapid testing site and primary HIV-1-infection cohorts.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analyses uncovered high proportion of clustering of new MSM infections. Overall, 27, 45, 48, 53 and 57% of first genotypes within one (singleton, n = 1359), 2-4 (n = 692), 5-9 (n = 367), 10-19 (n = 405) and 20+ (n = 1277) cluster size groups were early infections (<0.44% diversity). Thirty viruses within large 20+ clusters disproportionately fuelled the epidemic, representing 13, 25 and 42% of infections, first genotyped in 2004-2007 (n = 1314), 2008-2011 (n = 1356) and 2012-2015 (n = 1033), respectively. Of note, 35, 21 and 14% of MSM belonging to 20+, 2-19 and one (singleton) cluster groups were under 30 years of age, respectively. Half of persons seen at the rapid testing site (2009-2011, n = 1781) were untested in the prior year. Poor testing propensity was associated with fewer reported partnerships.

CONCLUSION

Addressing the heterogeneity in transmission dynamics among HIV-1-infected MSM populations may help guide testing, treatment and prevention strategies.

Expanding HIV-1 subtype B transmission networks among men who have sex with men in Poland

INTRODUCTION

Reconstruction of HIV transmission links allows to trace the spread and dynamics of infection and guide epidemiological interventions. The aim of this study was to characterize transmission networks among subtype B infected patients from Poland.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Maximum likelihood phylogenenetic trees were inferred from 966 HIV-1 subtype B protease/reverse transcriptase sequences from patients followed up in nine Polish HIV centers. Monophyletic clusters were identified using 3% within-cluster distance and 0.9 bootstrap values. Interregional links for the clusters were investigated and time from infection to onward transmission estimated using Bayesian dated MCMC phylogeny.

RESULTS

Three hundred twenty one (33.2%) sequences formed 109 clusters, including ten clusters of ≥5 sequences (n = 81, 8.4%). Transmission networks were more common among MSM (234 sequences, 68.6%) compared to other infection routes (injection drug use: 28 (8.2%) and heterosexual transmissions: 59 (17.3%) cases, respectively [OR:3.5 (95%CI:2.6-4.6),p<0.001]. Frequency of clustering increased from 26.92% in 2009 to 50.6% in 2014 [OR:1.18 (95%CI:1.06-1.31),p = 0.0026; slope +2.8%/year] with median time to onward transmission within clusters of 1.38 (IQR:0.59-2.52) years. In multivariate models clustering was associated with both MSM transmission route [OR:2.24 (95%CI:1.38-3.65),p<0.001] and asymptomatic stage of HIV infection [OR:1.93 (95%CI:1.4-2.64),p<0.0001]. Additionally, interregional networks were linked to MSM transmissions [OR:4.7 (95%CI:2.55-8.96),p<0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Reconstruction of the HIV-1 subtype B transmission patterns reveals increasing degree of clustering and existence of interregional networks among Polish MSM. Dated phylogeny confirms the association between onward transmission and recent infections. High transmission dynamics among Polish MSM emphasizes the necessity for active testing and early treatment in this group.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies

Background

Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years.

Results

Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3–41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p < 0.01), MSM (85.8 vs 65.6%, p < 0.01) and infected with CRF02_AG (20.4 vs 13.4%, p < 0.01). Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris area was the major hub of dissemination of both subtype B and CRF02_AG epidemics. By targeting clustering individuals belonging to the identified active transmission network before 2010, 60 of the 143 onward transmissions could have been prevented.

Conclusion

These analyses support the hypothesis of a recent and rapid rise of CRF02_AG within the French HIV-1 epidemic among MSM. Combined with a short turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-017-0339-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Moderate Levels of Pre-Treatment HIV-1 Antiretroviral Drug Resistance Detected in the First South African National Survey

Background

In order to assess the level of transmitted and/or pre-treatment antiretroviral drug resistance to HIV-1, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that regular surveys are conducted. This study’s objective was to assess the frequency of HIV-1 antiretroviral drug resistance in patients initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the public sector throughout South Africa.

Methods

A prospective cross-sectional survey was conducted using probability proportional to size sampling. This method ensured that samples from each province were proportionally collected, based on the number of patients receiving ART in each region. Samples were collected between March 2013 and October 2014. Pol sequences were obtained using RT-PCR and Sanger sequencing and submitted to the Stanford Calibrated Population Resistance tool v6.0.

Results

A total of 277 sequences were available for analysis. Most participants were female (58.8%) and the median age was 34 years (IQR: 29–42). The median baseline CD4-count was 149 cells/mm³ (IQR: 62–249) and, based on self-reporting, participants had been diagnosed as HIV-positive approximately 44 days prior to sample collection (IQR: 23–179). Subtyping revealed that 98.2% were infected with HIV-1 subtype C. Overall, 25 out of 277 patients presented with ≥1 surveillance drug resistance mutation (SDRM, 9.0%, 95% CI: 6.1–13.0%). Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations were the most numerous mutations detected (n = 23). Only two patients presented with a protease inhibitor (PI) mutation. In four patients ≥4 SDRMs were detected, which might indicate that these patients were not truly ART-naïve or were infected with a multi-resistant virus.

Conclusions

These results show that the level of antiretroviral drug resistance in ART-naïve South Africans has reached moderate levels, as per the WHO classification. Therefore, regular surveys of pre-treatment drug resistance levels in all regions of South Africa is highly recommended to monitor the changing levels of pre-treatment antiretroviral drug resistance.

Comparing those diagnosed early versus late in their HIV infection: implications for public health

Routine HIV surveillance cannot distinguish between recent and older infections: HIV-positive individuals reported soon or long after infection are both considered new diagnoses from a surveillance perspective, notwithstanding the time since infection. This lack of specificity makes it difficult to understand the jurisdiction-specific trends in HIV epidemiology needed for prevention planning. Previous efforts have been made to discern such timing of infection, but these methodologies are not easily applied in a public health setting. We wished to develop a simple protocol, using routinely collected information, to classify newly diagnosed infections as recent or older, and to enumerate and characterize recent versus older infections. Applying our methodology to a review of HIV cases reported between January 2011 and December 2014, we classified 62% of cases; one-third of these were recent infections. Although men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons from HIV-endemic countries (HEC) disproportionally accounted for new HIV diagnoses, the dynamics of HIV transmission within these groups differed dramatically: MSM accounted for the majority of recent infections, whereas persons from HEC accounted for the majority of older infections. Among older infections, one-quarter were previously unaware of their infection. Categorizing cases in this manner yielded greater, jurisdiction-specific understanding of HIV, and guides subpopulation-specific interventions.

Assessment of Overlap of Phylogenetic Transmission Clusters and Communities in Simple Sexual Contact Networks: Applications to HIV-1

Background

Transmission patterns of sexually-transmitted infections (STIs) could relate to the structure of the underlying sexual contact network, whose features are therefore of interest to clinicians. Conventionally, we represent sexual contacts in a population with a graph, that can reveal the existence of communities. Phylogenetic methods help infer the history of an epidemic and incidentally, may help detecting communities. In particular, phylogenetic analyses of HIV-1 epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) have revealed the existence of large transmission clusters, possibly resulting from within-community transmissions. Past studies have explored the association between contact networks and phylogenies, including transmission clusters, producing conflicting conclusions about whether network features significantly affect observed transmission history. As far as we know however, none of them thoroughly investigated the role of communities, defined with respect to the network graph, in the observation of clusters.

Methods

The present study investigates, through simulations, community detection from phylogenies. We simulate a large number of epidemics over both unweighted and weighted, undirected random interconnected-islands networks, with islands corresponding to communities. We use weighting to modulate distance between islands. We translate each epidemic into a phylogeny, that lets us partition our samples of infected subjects into transmission clusters, based on several common definitions from the literature. We measure similarity between subjects’ island membership indices and transmission cluster membership indices with the adjusted Rand index.

Results and Conclusion

Analyses reveal modest mean correspondence between communities in graphs and phylogenetic transmission clusters. We conclude that common methods often have limited success in detecting contact network communities from phylogenies. The rarely-fulfilled requirement that network communities correspond to clades in the phylogeny is their main drawback. Understanding the link between transmission clusters and communities in sexual contact networks could help inform policymaking to curb HIV incidence in MSMs.

Phylogenetic Investigation of a Statewide HIV-1 Epidemic Reveals Ongoing and Active Transmission Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men

BACKGROUND

Molecular epidemiological evaluation of HIV-1 transmission networks can elucidate behavioral components of transmission that can be targets for intervention.

METHODS

We combined phylogenetic and statistical approaches using pol sequences from patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2011 at a large HIV center in Rhode Island, following 75% of the state's HIV population. Phylogenetic trees were constructed using maximum likelihood, and putative transmission clusters were evaluated using latent class analyses to determine association of cluster size with underlying demographic/behavioral characteristics. A logistic growth model was used to assess intracluster dynamics over time and predict "active" clusters that were more likely to harbor undiagnosed infections.

RESULTS

Of the 1166 HIV-1 subtype B sequences, 31% were distributed among 114 statistically supported, monophyletic clusters (range: 2-15 sequences/cluster). Sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) formed 52% of clusters. Latent class analyses demonstrated that sequences from recently diagnosed (2008-2011) MSM with primary HIV infection (PHI) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were more likely to form larger clusters (odds ratio: 1.62-11.25, P < 0.01). MSM in clusters were more likely to have anonymous partners and meet partners at sex clubs and pornographic stores. Four large clusters with 38 sequences (100% male, 89% MSM) had a high probability of harboring undiagnosed infections and included younger MSM with PHI and STIs.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first large-scale molecular epidemiological investigation of HIV-1 transmission in New England, sexual networks among recently diagnosed MSM with PHI and concomitant STIs contributed to the ongoing transmission. Characterization of transmission dynamics revealed actively growing clusters, which may be targets for intervention.

Transmission of Non-B HIV Subtypes in the United Kingdom Is Increasingly Driven by Large Non-Heterosexual Transmission Clusters

Background. The United Kingdom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic was historically dominated by HIV subtype B transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Now 50% of diagnoses and prevalent infections are among heterosexual individuals and mainly involve non-B subtypes. Between 2002 and 2010, the prevalence of non-B diagnoses among MSM increased from 5.4% to 17%, and this study focused on the drivers of this change.

Methods. Growth between 2007 and 2009 in transmission clusters among 14 000 subtype A1, C, D, and G sequences from the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database was analysed by risk group.

Results. Of 1148 clusters containing at least 2 sequences in 2007, >75% were pairs and >90% were heterosexual. Most clusters (71.4%) did not grow during the study period. Growth was significantly lower for small clusters and higher for clusters of ≥7 sequences, with the highest growth observed for clusters comprising sequences from MSM and people who inject drugs (PWID). Risk group (P < .0001), cluster size (P < .0001), and subtype (P < .01) were predictive of growth in a generalized linear model.

Discussion. Despite the increase in non-B subtypes associated with heterosexual transmission, MSM and PWID are at risk for non-B infections. Crossover of subtype C from heterosexuals to MSM has led to the expansion of this subtype within the United Kingdom.

Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

Southern Africa continues to be the epicenter of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This HIV-1 subtype C epidemic has a predominantly heterosexual mode of virus transmission and high (>15%) HIV prevalence among adults. The epidemiological dynamics of the HIV-1C epidemic in southern Africa are still poorly understood. Here, we aim at a better understanding of HIV transmission dynamics by analyzing HIV-1 subtype C sequences from Mochudi, a peri-urban village in Botswana. HIV-1C env gene sequences (gp120 V1C5) were obtained through enhanced household-based HIV testing and counseling in Mochudi. More than 1200 sequences were generated and phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics within Mochudi identified. The Bayesian birth-death skyline plot was used to estimate the effective reproductive number, R, and the timing of virus transmission, to classify sub-epidemics as "acute" (those with recent viral transmissions) or "historic" (those without recent viral transmissions). We identified two of the 15 sub-epidemics as "acute." The median estimates of R among the clusters ranged from 0.72 to 1.77. The majority of HIV lineages, 11 out of 15 clusters with 5+ members, appear to have been introduced to Mochudi between 1996 and 2002. The median peak duration of viral transmissions was 7.1 years (range 2.9-9.7 years). The median life span of identified HIV sub-epidemics, i.e., the time between the inferred epidemic origin and its most recent sample, was 13.1 years (range 10.2-22.1 years). Most viral transmissions within the sub-epidemics occurred between 1997 and 2007. The time period during which infected people are infectious appears to have decreased since the introduction of the national ART program in Botswana. Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

Phylogeny and Phylogeography of a Recent HIV-1 Subtype F Outbreak among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Spain Deriving from a Cluster with a Wide Geographic Circulation in Western Europe

We recently reported the rapid expansion of an HIV-1 subtype F cluster among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the region of Galicia, Northwest Spain. Here we update this outbreak, analyze near full-length genomes, determine phylogenetic relationships, and estimate its origin. For this study, we used sequences of HIV-1 protease-reverse transcriptase and env V3 region, and for 17 samples, near full-length genome sequences were obtained. Phylogenetic analyses were performed via maximum likelihood. Locations and times of most recent common ancestors were estimated using Bayesian inference. Among samples analyzed by us, 100 HIV-1 F1 subsubtype infections of monophyletic origin were diagnosed in Spain, including 88 in Galicia and 12 in four other regions. Most viruses (n = 90) grouped in a subcluster (Galician subcluster), while 7 from Valladolid (Central Spain) grouped in another subcluster. At least 94 individuals were sexually-infected males and at least 71 were MSM. Seventeen near full-length genomes were uniformly of F1 subsubtype. Through similarity searches and phylogenetic analyses, we identified 18 viruses from four other Western European countries [Switzerland (n = 8), Belgium (n = 5), France (n = 3), and United Kingdom (n = 2)] and one from Brazil, from samples collected in 2005–2011, which branched within the subtype F cluster, outside of both Spanish subclusters, most of them corresponding to recently infected individuals. The most probable geographic origin and age of the Galician subcluster was Ferrol, Northwest Galicia, around 2007, while the Western European cluster probably emerged in Switzerland around 2002. In conclusion, a recently expanded HIV-1 subtype F cluster, the largest non-subtype B cluster reported in Western Europe, continues to spread among MSM in Spain; this cluster is part of a larger cluster with a wide geographic circulation in diverse Western European countries.