Mortality attributable to 9 common infections: significant effect of influenza A, respiratory syncytial virus, influenza B, norovirus, and parainfluenza in elderly persons

Beyond the sine wave: unveiling climate-driven baseline mortality cycles

The relationship between temperature and mortality is well-established, with higher mortality rates occurring in moderate climates during winter. Studies on COVID-19 and influenza-related excess deaths often assume a sine-like wave pattern for baseline mortality. This study aims to assess the accuracy of this approximation in capturing the observed mortality pattern and explore its linkage with climate. Weekly mortality data from European regions (2000-2019) were modeled using the seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on Loess. Cycles were grouped into clusters, and underlying trends were extracted using principal component analysis. Generalized linear models assuming a sine-like pattern were used to test predictive value. Cluster analysis divided the regional cycles approximately into continental and temperate climate regions, further subdivided into oceanic and Mediterranean. While the continental region exhibited a sine-like mortality pattern, it displayed modest deviations that compounded further south. The period of elevated winter mortality became shorter but more intense, while decreased summer mortality became more pronounced yet delayed. This study improves weekly estimations of excess mortality models by providing enhanced baselines. The deviation from the sine-like approximation mirrors the idealized outbreak pattern from epidemiological models with sharper surges and more gradual declines. The results point to winter infections, impacted by acquired immunity and weather conditions, as the primary drivers of fluctuations in mortality. In warmer regions, there is an apparent shift toward a lower number of overall infections within a compressed time span.

Estimation of Symptomatic Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Incidence in Adults in Multiple Countries: A Time-Series Model-Based Analysis Protocol

INTRODUCTION

Estimating respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden in adults is challenging because of non-specific symptoms, infrequent standard-of-care testing, resolution of viral shedding before seeking medical care, test positivity that varies by specimen site in the upper airway and lower diagnostic test sensitivity compared to children. Conducting prospective observational studies to assess RSV burden in adults is time- and resource-intensive. Thus, model-based approaches can be applied using existing data to obtain more accurate estimates of RSV burden. This protocol establishes essential elements for estimating RSV incidence rate in adults using a time series model-based approach. It can be tailored to specific databases and applied globally across countries, enabling estimation of local RSV disease burden to inform public health decision-making, including immunization policy.

METHODS

Data are analysed using a quasi-Poisson regression model, considering the effect of baseline trends and pathogen co-circulation, stratified by age and risk status. Pathogen co-circulation is represented by viral proxies defined based on ICD code groupings indicating RSV and influenza-specific hospitalizations, lagged 0 up to 4 weeks based on the model selection. A final model is constructed in two steps: optimization of the time trend (using p-values) and selection of the viral proxy lag time (using test statistics, to prioritize the most biologically plausible option). The yearly incidence rate and percentage of events attributable to RSV are estimated from the final model. Confidence intervals are calculated using residual bootstrapping.

PLANNED OUTCOMES

Outcomes to be modelled are based on administrative ICD code groupings and include the number of cardiorespiratory, respiratory and cardiovascular events in a specific care setting (e.g., general practitioner visit, emergency department visit, hospitalization and death). Cardiovascular events are limited to those for which existing evidence suggests an association with RSV infection. Additional secondary outcomes are constructed as a subset of the primary outcomes based on specific ICD code groups.

Estimated Incidence of Hospitalizations and Deaths Attributable to Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections Among Adults in Germany Between 2015 and 2019

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden in adults is underestimated mainly due to unspecific symptoms and limited standard-of-care testing. We estimated the population-based incidence of hospitalization and mortality attributable to RSV among adults with and without risk factors in Germany.

METHODS

Weekly counts of hospitalizations and deaths for respiratory, cardiovascular, and cardiorespiratory diseases were obtained (Statutory Health Insurance database, 2015-2019). A quasi-Poisson regression model was fitted to estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths attributable to RSV as a function of periodic and aperiodic time trends, and viral activity while allowing for potential overdispersion. Weekly counts of RSV and influenza hospitalizations in children < 2 years and adults ≥ 60 years, respectively, were used as viral activity indicators. Models were stratified by age group and risk status (defined as presence of selected comorbidities).

RESULTS

Population-based RSV-attributable hospitalization incidence rates were high among adults ≥ 60 years: respiratory hospitalizations (236-363 per 100,000 person-years) and cardiorespiratory hospitalizations (584-912 per 100,000 person-years). RSV accounted for 2-3% of all cardiorespiratory hospitalizations in this age group. The increase in cardiorespiratory hospitalization risk associated with underlying risk factors was greater in 18-44 year old persons (five to sixfold higher) than in ≥ 75 year old persons (two to threefold higher).

CONCLUSIONS

This is a first model-based study to comprehensively assess adult RSV burden in Germany. Estimated cardiorespiratory RSV hospitalization rates increased with age and were substantially higher in people with risk factors compared to those without risk factors. Our study indicates that RSV, like other respiratory viruses, contributes to both respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations. Effective prevention strategies are needed, especially among older adults ≥ 60 years and among adults with underlying risk factors.

Prevalence of Respiratory Viral Infections in Deceased Persons during the COVID-19 Pandemic Season 2021-2022: A Population-Based Observational Study

Although the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 circulated intensely during the 2021-2022 season, many patients with severe acute respiratory disease tested negative for COVID-19. The aim of this study was to assess the presence of different respiratory viruses in deceased persons. The proportion of deceased persons with respiratory viral infections in the 2021-2022 season in Navarre, Spain, was estimated considering all deaths caused by confirmed COVID-19 according to the epidemiological surveillance and the results of multiplex PCR tests for respiratory viruses performed in a sample of deceased persons with a cause of death other than COVID-19. Of 3578 deaths, 324 (9.1%) were initially reported as caused by pre-mortem confirmed COVID-19. A sample of 242 persons who died by causes other than COVID-19 were tested post-mortem; 64 (26.4%) of them were positive for any respiratory virus: 11.2% for SARS-CoV-2, 5.8% for rhinovirus, 3.7% for human coronavirus, 2.5% for metapneumovirus, 1.7% for respiratory syncytial virus, 1.7% for parainfluenza, 1.2% for influenza, and less than 1% each for adenovirus and bocavirus. Combining both approaches, we estimated that 34.4% of all deceased persons during the study period had a respiratory viral infection and 19.2% had SARS-CoV-2. Only 33.3% (9/27) of SARS-CoV-2 and 5.0% (2/40) of other viruses detected post-mortem had previously been confirmed pre-mortem. In a period with very intense circulation of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic, other respiratory viruses were also frequently present in deceased persons. Some SARS-CoV-2 infections and most other viral infections were not diagnosed pre-mortem. Several respiratory viruses may contribute to excess mortality in winter.

Estimated Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Related Hospitalizations and Deaths Among Children and Adults in Spain, 2016-2019

INTRODUCTION

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial disease burden among infants. In older children and adults, incidence is underestimated due to nonspecific symptoms and limited standard-of-care testing. We aimed to estimate RSV-attributable hospitalizations and deaths in Spain during 2016-2019.

METHODS

Nationally representative hospitalization and mortality databases were obtained from the Ministry of Health and the National Statistical Office. A quasi-Poisson regression model was fitted to estimate the number of hospitalizations and deaths attributable to RSV as a function of periodic and aperiodic time trends and viral activity, while allowing for potential overdispersion.

RESULTS

In children, the RSV-attributable respiratory hospitalization incidence was highest among infants aged 0-5 months (3998-5453 cases/100,000 person-years, representing 72% of all respiratory hospitalizations) and decreased with age. In 2019, estimated rates in children 0-5, 6-11, 12-23 months and 6-17 years were approximately 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, and 6.5 times higher than those based on standard-of-care RSV-specific codes. In adults, the RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory hospitalization rate increased with age and was highest among persons ≥ 80 years (1325-1506 cases/100,000, 6.5% of all cardiorespiratory hospitalizations). In 2019, for persons aged 18-49, 50-59, 60-79, and ≥ 80 years, estimated rates were approximately 8, 6, 8, and 16 times higher than those based on standard-of-care RSV-specific codes. The RSV-attributable cardiorespiratory mortality rate was highest among ≥ 80 age group (126-150 deaths/100,000, 3.5-4.1% of all cardiorespiratory deaths), when reported mortality rate ranged between 0 and 0.5/100,000.

CONCLUSIONS

When accounting for under-ascertainment, estimated RSV-attributable hospitalizations were higher than those reported based on standard-of-care RSV-specific codes in all age groups but particularly among older children and older adults. Like other respiratory viruses, RSV contributes to both respiratory and cardiovascular complications. Efficacious RSV vaccines could have a high public health impact in these age and risk groups.

Exploring the paradoxical nature of cold temperature mortality in Europe

While low winter temperatures are associated with increased mortality, this phenomenon has been suggested to be most severe in regions with seemingly mild winters. The study aimed to establish a temperature-based formula that could elucidate the previously ambiguous regional differences in vulnerability to low temperature. European weekly mortality data (2000-2019) were matched with meteorological data to determine for each region vulnerability to temperature decrease and the optimal temperature with lowest mortality. Regression models were developed to generalize and explain these findings considering regional temperature characteristics. Optimal temperature could be predicted based on local average summer temperature (R2 = 85.6%). Regional vulnerability to temperature decrease could be explained by combination of winter and summer temperatures (R2 = 86.1%). Regions with warm winters and cold summers showed the highest vulnerability to decrease of temperature during winter. Contrary to theories about economic disparities Eastern Europe exhibited resistance comparable to Scandinavia. The southern edges of Europe demonstrated serious low temperature vulnerability to decreased temperatures, even if temperature was relatively high around 20 °C. This suggests that the observed connection primarily reflects the modulation of the length of respiratory virus infection seasons by climate conditions, counterbalanced by varying levels of acquired immunity and the presence of heatwaves eliminating the most frail individuals. Thus, relatively low vulnerability and a flat mortality cycle in countries with harsh climates paradoxically imply the presence of threats throughout the whole year.

Comparative analysis of mortality in patients admitted with an infection with influenza A/B virus, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, metapneumovirus or SARS-CoV-2

Background

While influenza virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are recognised as a cause of severe illness and mortality, clinical interest for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV) infections is still limited.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective database study comparing baseline characteristics and 30-day mortality in a large cohort of adult patients admitted for an overnight stay or longer with an influenza virus (A/B), rhinovirus, hMPV, RSV or SARS-CoV-2 infection. For non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses, data were included for the period July 2017-February 2020. For SARS-CoV-2, data between March 2020 and March 2022 were included.

Results

Covariate-adjusted 30-day mortality following RSV, hMPV or rhinovirus infections was substantial (crude mortality 8-10%) and comparable with mortality following hospitalisation with an influenza A virus infection. Mortality following a SARS-CoV-2 infection was consistently higher than for any other respiratory virus, at any point in time (crude mortality 14-25%). Odds of mortality for SARS-CoV-2 compared with influenza A declined from 4.9 to 1.7 over the course of the pandemic. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection had less comorbidity than patients with other respiratory virus infections and were more often male. In this cohort, age was related to mortality following hospitalisation, while an association with comorbidity was not apparent.

Conclusions

With the exception of SARS-CoV-2 infections, we find the clinical outcome of common respiratory virus infections requiring hospitalisation more similar than often assumed. The observed mortality from SARS-CoV-2 was significantly higher, but the difference with other respiratory viruses became less distinct over time.

Global prevalence of respiratory virus infections in adults and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, efforts have been made to contain the spread of the virus. However, the epidemiological burden of other respiratory viruses during the pandemic is unclear. We aim to address the epidemiology of respiratory viruses on adults/adolescents since the beginning of the pandemic.

METHODS

We systematically searched five databases and performed a meta-analysis to explore the pooled prevalence of respiratory viruses in different geographical regions, age groups, and periods and compared the prevalence between COVID-19 cases and non-COVID-19 patients.

RESULTS

Enteroviruses/rhinoviruses were highly prevalent compared to other viruses. Different viruses were dominant in different regions. No significant differences in prevalence were found between different age groups, except for human metapneumovirus. There was an increase in prevalence of non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses in the second half of the pandemic (July 2021-December 2022). Comparison of COVID-19 and non-COVID patients showed a higher prevalence in the non-COVID group, significant for influenza, seasonal coronaviruses, and human parainfluenza viruses.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that enteroviruses/rhinoviruses were less impacted by healthcare measures compared with other respiratory viruses. The relaxation of measures in the second half led to an increased pooled prevalence of infections. Several factors may explain the lower prevalence among individuals infected with COVID-19.

Air purifiers for reducing the incidence of acute respiratory infections in australian residential aged care facilities: A study protocol for a randomised control trial

INTRODUCTION

Adults living in Residential Aged Care Facilities (RACFs) are highly susceptible to seasonal respiratory infections. Evidence indicates that the aerosols contaminated with virus particles in closed indoor spaces may play a significant role in the transmission of respiratory infections. In this protocol paper, we outline details of a planned RCT which aims to evaluate the effectiveness of portable in room air purifiers in reducing the risk of ARIs among residents in Australian RACFs. This study uses a multi-centre double-blind randomised crossover design. Three RACFs in a regional area of New South Wales will be invited to participate in the study. Air purifiers with or without high-efficiency particulate absorbing (HEPA) filters will be placed in the rooms of residents who are enrolled in the trial. The primary outcome will be a reduction in the incidence of ARI and the secondary outcomes will be the time to first infection, number of emergency department admissions, hospital admissions, and medical consultations due to an ARI.

CONCLUSION

To our knowledge, this will be the first RCT using air purifiers in resident rooms to identify their effect in reducing ARIs in RACFs. If our findings indicate some potential benefit for in-room air purification, it will help provide support and justification for larger trials, which may include a facility wide approach to air purification.

Understanding the age spectrum of respiratory syncytial virus associated hospitalisation and mortality burden based on statistical modelling methods: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND

Statistical modelling studies based on excess morbidity and mortality are important for understanding RSV disease burden for age groups that are less frequently tested for RSV. We aimed to understand the full age spectrum of RSV morbidity and mortality burden based on statistical modelling studies, as well as the value of modelling studies in RSV disease burden estimation.

METHODS

The databases Medline, Embase and Global Health were searched to identify studies published between January 1, 1995, and December 31, 2021, reporting RSV-associated excess hospitalisation or mortality rates of any case definitions using a modelling approach. All reported rates were summarised using median, IQR (Interquartile range) and range by age group, outcome and country income group; where applicable, a random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to combine the reported rates. We further estimated the proportion of RSV hospitalisations that could be captured in clinical databases.

RESULTS

A total of 32 studies were included, with 26 studies from high-income countries. RSV-associated hospitalisation and mortality rates both showed a U-shape age pattern. Lowest and highest RSV acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalisation rates were found in 5-17 years (median: 1.6/100,000 population, IQR: 1.3-18.5) and < 1 year (2235.7/100,000 population, 1779.1-3552.5), respectively. Lowest and highest RSV mortality rates were found in 18-49 years (0.1/100,000 population, 0.06-0.2) and ≥ 75 years (80.0/100,000 population, 70.0-90.0) for high-income countries, respectively, and in 18-49 years (0.3/100,000 population, 0.1-2.4) and < 1 year (143.4/100,000 population, 143.4-143.4) for upper-middle income countries. More than 70% of RSV hospitalisations in children < 5 years could be captured in clinical databases whereas less than 10% of RSV hospitalisations could be captured in adults, especially for adults ≥ 50 years. Using pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality could potentially capture half of all RSV mortality in older adults but only 10-30% of RSV mortality in children.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides insights into the age spectrum of RSV hospitalisation and mortality. RSV disease burden using laboratory records alone could be substantially severely underreported for age groups ≥ 5 years. Our findings confirm infants and older adults should be prioritised for RSV immunisation programmes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020173430.

Inference of age-dependent case-fatality ratios for seasonal influenza virus subtypes A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 and B lineages using data from the Netherlands

Background

Despite the known relatively high disease burden of influenza, data are lacking regarding a critical epidemiological indicator, the case-fatality ratio. Our objective was to infer age-group and influenza (sub)type specific values by combining modelled estimates of symptomatic incidence and influenza-attributable mortality.

Methods

The setting was the Netherlands, 2011/2012 through 2019/2020 seasons. Sentinel surveillance data from general practitioners and laboratory testing were synthesised to supply age-group specific estimates of incidence of symptomatic infection, and ecological additive modelling was used to estimate influenza-attributable deaths. These were combined in an Bayesian inferential framework to estimate case-fatality ratios for influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, per 5-year age-group.

Results

Case-fatality estimates were highest for influenza A(H3N2) followed by influenza B and then A(H1N1)pdm09 and were highest for the 85+ years age-group, at 4.76% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 4.52-5.01%) for A(H3N2), followed by influenza B at 4.08% (95% CrI: 3.77-4.39%) and A(H1N1)pdm09 at 2.51% (95% CrI: 2.09-2.94%). For 55-59 through 85+ years, the case-fatality risk was estimated to double with every 3.7 years of age.

Conclusions

These estimated case-fatality ratios, per influenza sub(type) and per age-group, constitute valuable information for public health decision-making, for assessing the retrospective and prospective value of preventative interventions such as vaccination and for health economic evaluations.

Etiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors associated with severe influenza-like illnesses in Mexican adults

Objective

The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with severe influenza-like illness (ILI) in Mexican adults that could be useful to clinicians when assessing patients with ILI.

Methods

Data from adult patients enrolled from 2010 through 2014 in ILI002 - a prospective hospital-based observational cohort study - were analyzed. Etiology and clinical characteristics were compared between cases of severe ILI (defined as hospitalization and/or death) and cases of non-severe ILI.

Results

Overall, 1428 (39.0%) out of a total 3664 cases of ILI were classified as severe. Adjusted analyses showed a higher risk of severe ILI associated with signs and symptoms related to lower tract infection, i.e. cough with sputum (odds ratio (OR) 2.037, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.206-3.477; P = 0.008), dyspnea (OR 5.044, 95% CI 2.99-8.631; and shortness of breath (OR 5.24, 95% CI 3.0839.124; P < 0.001), and with increases in lactate dehydrogenase (OR 4.426, 95% CI 2.321-8.881; P < 0.001) and C-reactive protein (OR 3.618, 95% CI 2.5955.196; P < 0.001). Further, there was an increased risk of severe ILI with a longer time between symptom onset and inclusion (OR 1.108, 95% CI 1.049-1.172; P < 0.001) and with chronic steroid use (OR 14.324, 95% CI 8.059-26.216; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Respiratory viruses can cause severe ILI. The results of this study highlight the importance of evaluating data compatible with lower tract involvement and previous use of immunosuppressants at baseline, because patients meeting these conditions may develop severe illness.

Influenza-Associated Excess Mortality by Age, Sex, and Subtype/Lineage: Population-Based Time-Series Study With a Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Model

BACKGROUND

Accurate estimation of the influenza death burden is of great significance for influenza prevention and control. However, few studies have considered the short-term harvesting effects of influenza on mortality when estimating influenza-associated excess deaths by cause of death, age, sex, and subtype/lineage.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the cause-, age-, and sex-specific excess mortality associated with influenza and its subtypes and lineages in Guangzhou from 2015 to 2018.

METHODS

Distributed-lag nonlinear models were fitted to estimate the excess mortality related to influenza subtypes or lineages for different causes of death, age groups, and sex based on daily time-series data for mortality, influenza, and meteorological factors.

RESULTS

A total of 199,777 death certificates were included in the study. The average annual influenza-associated excess mortality rate (EMR) was 25.06 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 19.85-30.16) per 100,000 persons; 7142 of 8791 (81.2%) deaths were due to respiratory or cardiovascular mortality (EMR 20.36, 95% eCI 16.75-23.74). Excess respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in people aged 60 to 79 years and those aged ≥80 years accounted for 32.9% (2346/7142) and 63.7% (4549/7142) of deaths, respectively. The male to female ratio (MFR) of excess death from respiratory diseases was 1.34 (95% CI 1.17-1.54), while the MFR for excess death from cardiovascular disease was 0.72 (95% CI 0.63-0.82). The average annual excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates attributed to influenza A (H3N2), B/Yamagata, B/Victoria, and A (H1N1) were 8.47 (95% eCI 6.60-10.30), 5.81 (95% eCI 3.35-8.25), 3.68 (95% eCI 0.81-6.49), and 2.83 (95% eCI -1.26 to 6.71), respectively. Among these influenza subtypes/lineages, A (H3N2) had the highest excess respiratory and cardiovascular mortality rates for people aged 60 to 79 years (20.22, 95% eCI 14.56-25.63) and ≥80 years (180.15, 95% eCI 130.75-227.38), while younger people were more affected by A (H1N1), with an EMR of 1.29 (95% eCI 0.07-2.32). The mortality displacement of influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B/Yamagata was 2 to 5 days, but 5 to 13 days for B/Victoria.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza was associated with substantial mortality in Guangzhou, occurring predominantly in the elderly, even after considering mortality displacement. The mortality burden of influenza B, particularly B/Yamagata, cannot be ignored. Contrasting sex differences were found in influenza-associated excess mortality from respiratory diseases and from cardiovascular diseases; the underlying mechanisms need to be investigated in future studies. Our findings can help us better understand the magnitude and time-course of the effect of influenza on mortality and inform targeted interventions for mitigating the influenza mortality burden, such as immunizations with quadrivalent vaccines (especially for older people), behavioral campaigns, and treatment strategies.

Perturbations in Respiratory Syncytial Virus Activity During the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common cause of respiratory disease in all age groups, with young children and older adults experiencing the most severe illness. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic resulted in striking changes in the activity of seasonal respiratory viruses, including RSV. After a period of suppression early in the pandemic, an interseasonal surge of RSV occurred in 2021. Viral activity was detected primarily in children and young adults after relaxation of public health measures, but without the usual proportional increases in infections and hospitalizations in older adults who were likely still adhering to stricter public health measures.

Norovirus: An Overview of Virology and Preventative Measures

Norovirus (NoV) is an enteric non-enveloped virus which is the leading cause of gastroenteritis across all age groups. It is responsible for around 200,000 deaths annually and outbreaks are common in small communities such as educational and care facilities. 40% of all NoV outbreaks occur in long-term and acute-care facilities, forming the majority of outbreaks. Nosocomial settings set ideal environments for ease of transmission, especially due to the presence of immunocompromised groups. It is estimated to cost global economies around £48 billion a year, making it a global issue. NoV is transmitted via the faecal-oral route and infection with it results in asymptomatic cases or gastrointestinal disease. It has high mutational rates and this allows for new variants to emerge and be more resistant. The classification system available divides NoV into 10 genogroups and 49 genotypes based on whole amino acid sequencing of VP1 capsid protein and partial sequencing of RdRp, respectively. The most predominant genotypes which cause gastroenteritis in humans include GI.1 and GII.4, where GII.4 is responsible for more extreme clinical implications such as hospitalisation. In addition, GII.4 has been responsible for 6 pandemic strains, the last of which is the GII.4 Sydney (2012) variant. In recent years, the successful cultivation of HuNoV was reported in stem cell-derived human intestinal enteroids (HIEs), which promises to assist in giving a deeper understanding of its underlying mechanisms of infection and the development of more personalized control measures. There are no specific control measures against NoV, therefore common practices are used against it such as hand washing. No vaccine is available, but the HIL-214 candidate passed clinical phase 2b and shows promise.

Roles for Pathogen Interference in Influenza Vaccination, with Implications to Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) and Attribution of Influenza Deaths

Pathogen interference is the ability of one pathogen to alter the course and clinical outcomes of infection by another. With up to 3000 species of human pathogens the potential combinations are vast. These combinations operate within further immune complexity induced by infection with multiple persistent pathogens, and by the role which the human microbiome plays in maintaining health, immune function, and resistance to infection. All the above are further complicated by malnutrition in children and the elderly. Influenza vaccination offers a measure of protection for elderly individuals subsequently infected with influenza. However, all vaccines induce both specific and non-specific effects. The specific effects involve stimulation of humoral and cellular immunity, while the nonspecific effects are far more nuanced including changes in gene expression patterns and production of small RNAs which contribute to pathogen interference. Little is known about the outcomes of vaccinated elderly not subsequently infected with influenza but infected with multiple other non-influenza winter pathogens. In this review we propose that in certain years the specific antigen mix in the seasonal influenza vaccine inadvertently increases the risk of infection from other non-influenza pathogens. The possibility that vaccination could upset the pathogen balance, and that the timing of vaccination relative to the pathogen balance was critical to success, was proposed in 2010 but was seemingly ignored. Persons vaccinated early in the winter are more likely to experience higher pathogen interference. Implications to the estimation of vaccine effectiveness and influenza deaths are discussed.

Quantitative analysis of respiratory viral distribution in forensic autopsy cases

Respiratory viruses can cause fatal systemic infections; therefore, post-mortem diagnosis is essential in forensic autopsy cases. However, little is known regarding the distribution of respiratory viruses in the body. In this study, we investigated the anatomical distribution of respiratory viruses in 48 forensic autopsy cases suspected of viral infections at our institute. Fast Track Diagnostics (FTD) Respiratory Pathogens 21 was used as a screening test for 20 respiratory viruses in nasopharyngeal swabs. In cases with positive results for virus detection by the screening test, the detected viruses were quantified in body fluid and organ specimens by virus-specific real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and digital PCR. Viruses were detected in 33 cases, with the viral distribution and load differing among the cases. Since various respiratory viruses were detected from the nasopharyngeal swab and its viral load was higher than those of other body fluid specimens, the nasopharyngeal swab was suggested as a useful specimen for the post-mortem detection of respiratory viruses. Viruses were detected in almost all specimens including the serum in six cases. Considering the viral distribution in the body, pathological findings, and ante-mortem symptoms, these cases were presumed to be systemically infected, having died in the acute infection phase. In conclusion, the anatomical distribution of respiratory viruses can help indicate ante-mortem systemic conditions and the cause of death.

Current Advances in Structure-Function Relationships and Dose-Dependent Effects of Human Milk Oligosaccharides

HMOs (human milk oligosaccharides) are the third most important nutrient in breast milk. As complex glycans, HMOs play an important role in regulating neonatal intestinal immunity, resisting viral and bacterial infections, displaying anti-inflammatory characteristics, and promoting brain development. Although there have been some previous reports of HMOs, a detailed literature review summarizing the structure-activity relationships and dose-dependent effects of HMOs is lacking. Hence, after introducing the structures and synthetic pathways of HMOs, this review summarizes and categorizes identified structure-function relationships of HMOs. Differential mechanisms of different structural HMOs utilization by microorganisms are summarized. This review also emphasizes the recent advances in the interactions between different health benefits and the variance of dosage effect based on in vitro cell tests, animal experiments, and human intervention studies. The potential relationships between the chemical structure, the dosage selection, and the physiological properties of HMOs as functional foods are vital for further understanding of HMOs and their future applications.

RSV-associated hospitalization in adults in the USA: A retrospective chart review investigating burden, management strategies, and outcomes

Background and Aims

The burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in adults is of growing concern. This study was designed to quantify disease burden, treatment approaches, and outcomes associated with RSV infections in adult subpopulations, from prehospitalization to hospital discharge.

Methods

A retrospective chart analysis was conducted to collect patient-case data from hospitalized US adults (aged >18 years) with RSV infection during two RSV seasons. Patients were categorized into risk groups: comorbid lung disease, immunocompromised, older adults (aged ≥65 years), and other adults (aged <65 years). Physicians reported diagnosis, treatment choices including respiratory supportive therapy (oxygen and fluid supplementation), and outcome variables using a standardized online case form.

Results

The majority (277/379; 73%) of patients presented to the emergency room, with a mean age of 60 years. Once hospitalized, the median length of stay was 6.0 days (3.0-9.0), with disease severity having the greatest impact on duration of stay. No significant between-group differences in rates of patients requiring management in intensive care units were found (comorbid lung disease, 28%; immunocompromised, 36%; older adults, 26%; and other adults, 23%). Overall, respiratory supportive therapy was the most commonly used form of treatment. Antibiotics were administered in over half of all risk groups (comorbid lung disease, 61%; immunocompromised, 59%; older adults, 59%; and other adults, 51%). Patients usually required follow-up visits following discharge, with 10%-16% requiring skilled nursing care and approximately 25% requiring assistance from a social worker.

Conclusion

RSV in adult subpopulations, irrespective of age, is a significant burden to healthcare systems.

Distinguishing viruses responsible for influenza-like illness

The many respiratory viruses that cause influenza-like illness (ILI) are reported and tracked as one entity, defined by the CDC as a group of symptoms that include a fever of 100 degrees Fahrenheit, a cough, and/or a sore throat. In the United States alone, ILI impacts 9-49 million people every year. While tracking ILI as a single clinical syndrome is informative in many respects, the underlying viruses differ in parameters and outbreak properties. Most existing models treat either a single respiratory virus or ILI as a whole. However, there is a need for models capable of comparing several individual viruses that cause respiratory illness, including ILI. To address this need, here we present a flexible model and simulations of epidemics for influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, adenovirus, and SARS/MERS, parameterized by a systematic literature review and accompanied by a global sensitivity analysis. We find that for these biological causes of ILI, their parameter values, timing, prevalence, and proportional contributions differ substantially. These results demonstrate that distinguishing the viruses that cause ILI will be an important aspect of future work on diagnostics, mitigation, modeling, and preparation for future pandemics.

System Complexity in Influenza Infection and Vaccination: Effects upon Excess Winter Mortality

Unexpected outcomes are usually associated with interventions in complex systems. Excess winter mortality (EWM) is a measure of the net effect of all competing forces operating each winter, including influenza(s) and non-influenza pathogens. In this study over 2400 data points from 97 countries are used to look at the net effect of influenza vaccination rates in the elderly aged 65+ against excess winter mortality (EWM) each year from the winter of 1980/81 through to 2019/20. The observed international net effect of influenza vaccination ranges from a 7.8% reduction in EWM estimated at 100% elderly vaccination for the winter of 1989/90 down to a 9.3% increase in EWM for the winter of 2018/19. The average was only a 0.3% reduction in EWM for a 100% vaccinated elderly population. Such outcomes do not contradict the known protective effect of influenza vaccination against influenza mortality per se—they merely indicate that multiple complex interactions lie behind the observed net effect against all-causes (including all pathogen causes) of winter mortality. This range from net benefit to net disbenefit is proposed to arise from system complexity which includes environmental conditions (weather, solar cycles), the antigenic distance between constantly emerging circulating influenza clades and the influenza vaccine makeup, vaccination timing, pathogen interference, and human immune diversity (including individual history of host-virus, host-antigen interactions and immunosenescence) all interacting to give the observed outcomes each year. We propose that a narrow focus on influenza vaccine effectiveness misses the far wider complexity of winter mortality. Influenza vaccines may need to be formulated in different ways, and perhaps administered over a shorter timeframe to avoid the unanticipated adverse net outcomes seen in around 40% of years.

All-cause versus cause-specific excess deaths for estimating influenza-associated mortality in Denmark, Spain, and the United States

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza-associated excess mortality estimates can be timely and provide useful information on the severity of an epidemic. This methodology can be leveraged during an emergency response or pandemic.

METHOD

For Denmark, Spain, and the United States, we estimated age-stratified excess mortality for (i) all-cause, (ii) respiratory and circulatory, (iii) circulatory, (iv) respiratory, and (v) pneumonia, and influenza causes of death for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons. We quantified differences between the countries and seasonal excess mortality estimates and the death categories. We used a time-series linear regression model accounting for time and seasonal trends using mortality data from 2010 through 2017.

RESULTS

The respective periods of weekly excess mortality for all-cause and cause-specific deaths were similar in their chronological patterns. Seasonal all-cause excess mortality rates for the 2015/2016 and 2016/2017 influenza seasons were 4.7 (3.3-6.1) and 14.3 (13.0-15.6) per 100,000 population, for the United States; 20.3 (15.8-25.0) and 24.0 (19.3-28.7) per 100,000 population for Denmark; and 22.9 (18.9-26.9) and 52.9 (49.1-56.8) per 100,000 population for Spain. Seasonal respiratory and circulatory excess mortality estimates were two to three times lower than the all-cause estimates.

DISCUSSION

We observed fewer influenza-associated deaths when we examined cause-specific death categories compared with all-cause deaths and observed the same trends in peaks in deaths with all death causes. Because all-cause deaths are more available, these models can be used to monitor virus activity in near real time. This approach may contribute to the development of timely mortality monitoring systems during public health emergencies.

The long-term prognostic value of serum 25(OH)D, albumin, and LL-37 levels in acute respiratory diseases among older adults

Background

Older adults are more susceptible to respiratory tract infection than healthy working age adults. The increased susceptibility of older adults is thought to be interlinked with vitamin D status, nourishment, and immunological state in general. Data are scarce whether these parameters could serve as prognostic markers.

Aim

To study whether serum 25(OH)D, albumin, and LL-37 level could give prognostic value of long-term survival in the older adults with multimorbidity and acute respiratory infection.

Methods

Consecutive episodes of hospital care of patients 65 years and older with respiratory symptoms were prospectively studied as a cohort. Standard clinical questionnaire was filled by the study physician. Laboratory markers included serum levels of 25(OH)D, albumin and LL-37, C-reactive protein (CRP), white blood cell count (WBC) and polymerase chain reaction diagnostics for 14 respiratory viruses. Pneumonia was confirmed by chest radiographs. Respiratory illness severity, death at ward, length of hospital stays, and 5-year survival were used as outcomes.

Results

In total, 289 older adult patients with mean age of 83 years were included in the study. Serum 25(OH)D deficiency (< 50 nmol/liter) was present in 59% and hypoalbuminemia (< 3.5 g/dL) in 55% of the study patients. Low serum albumin level was associated to one, two- and five-year mortality after hospital stay (all P < .05). In addition, it was associated with pneumonia, dyspnea, over 13-night long stay at ward and death at ward (all P < .05). No associations were seen between serum 25(OH)D and LL-37 levels and disease severity, short-term clinical outcome, or long-term survival. Associations between serum 25(OH)D, albumin, and LL-37 levels and respiratory virus presence were not seen.

Conclusions

Serum albumin level on admission seems to give valuable information about the patients’ general health and recovery potential in treating older adults with respiratory symptoms. Serum 25(OH)D and LL-37 had no associations with disease severity or long- and short-term prognosis among older adults hospitalized with respiratory symptoms.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-02836-8.

Clinical characteristics and prognostic risk factors of mortality in patients with interstitial lung diseases and viral infection: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction. Patients with interstitial lung disease (ILD) who subsequently develop a viral infection have high rates of morbidity and mortality.Hypothesis/Gap Statement. Few large-scale epidemiological studies have investigated potential prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality in this patient group.Aim. To evaluate the risk factors for morbidity and mortality in hospitalized patients with ILD and viral infection, as well as the clinical characteristics.Methodology. This retrospective cohort study included patients with ILD who were hospitalized for a viral infection in two tertiary academic hospitals in China, between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2019. We analysed the prevalence of comorbidities, clinical characteristics, 30 day mortality rates, and prognostic risk factors.Results. A total of 282 patients were included; 195 and 87 were immunocompromised and immunocompetent, respectively. The most common underlying interstitial diseases were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (42.9 %) and connective tissue disease (36.9 %). The 30 day mortality rate was 20.6 %. During the influenza season, an increase in influenza virus (IFV) (25.7 %), respiratory syncytial virus (14.9 %) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) (11.3 %) cases was observed in the immunocompromised group. The most frequently detected virus in the immunocompetent group was IFV (44.8 %), followed by respiratory syncytial virus (11.5 %), and human rhinovirus (9.2 %). During the non-influenza season, CMV (34.4 %) was the main virus detected in the immunocompromised group. The 30 day mortality rates of non-IFV patients were higher than those of IFV patients. Older age (>60 years), respiratory failure, persistent lymphocytopenia, invasive mechanical ventilation and non-IFV virus infection were significantly associated with increased 30 day mortality.Conclusion. Patients with ILD who develop viral infection have high rates of morbidity and mortality, which are associated with increased age (>60 years), respiratory failure, mechanical ventilation, persistent lymphocytopenia and non-IFV virus infection. These risk factors should be carefully considered when determining treatment strategies for this patient population.

Parainfluenza virus entry at the onset of infection

Parainfluenza viruses, members of the enveloped, negative-sense, single stranded RNA Paramyxoviridae family, impact global child health as the cause of significant lower respiratory tract infections. Parainfluenza viruses enter cells by fusing directly at the cell surface membrane. How this fusion occurs via the coordinated efforts of the two molecules that comprise the viral surface fusion complex, and how these efforts may be blocked, are the subjects of this chapter. The receptor binding protein of parainfluenza forms a complex with the fusion protein of the virus, remaining stably associated until a receptor is reached. At that point, the receptor binding protein actively triggers the fusion protein to undergo a series of transitions that ultimately lead to membrane fusion and viral entry. In recent years it has become possible to examine this remarkable process on the surface of viral particles and to begin to understand the steps in the transition of this molecular machine, using a structural biology approach. Understanding the steps in entry leads to several possible strategies to prevent fusion and inhibit infection.

Human parainfluenza virus evolution during lung infection of immunocompromised humans promotes viral persistence

The capacity of respiratory viruses to undergo evolution within the respiratory tract raises the possibility of evolution under the selective pressure of the host environment or drug treatment. Long-term infections in immunocompromised hosts are potential drivers of viral evolution and development of infectious variants. We show that intra-host evolution in chronic human parainfluenza virus 3 (HPIV3) infection in immunocompromised individuals elicited mutations that favor viral entry and persistence, suggesting that similar processes may operate across enveloped respiratory viruses. We profiled longitudinal HPIV3 infections from two immunocompromised individuals that persisted for 278 and 98 days. Mutations accrued in the HPIV3 attachment protein hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN), including the first in vivo mutation in HN's receptor binding site responsible for activating the viral fusion process. Fixation of this mutation was associated with exposure to a drug that cleaves host cell sialic acid moieties. Longitudinal adaptation of HN was associated with features that promote viral entry and persistence in cells, including greater avidity for sialic acid and more active fusion activity in vitro, but not with antibody escape. Long term infection thus led to mutations promoting viral persistence, suggesting that host-directed therapeutics may support the evolution of viruses that alter their biophysical characteristics to persist in the face of these agents in vivo.

Added value of rapid respiratory syndromic testing at point of care versus central laboratory testing: a controlled clinical trial

Background

Virus-associated respiratory infections are in the spotlight with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the expanding use of multiplex PCR (mPCR). The impact of molecular testing as a point-of-care test (POCT) in the emergency department (ED) is still unclear.

Objectives

To compare the impact of a syndromic test performed in the ED as a POCT and in the central laboratory on length of stay (LOS), antibiotic use and single-room assignment.

Methods

From 19 November 2019 to 9 March 2020, adults with acute respiratory illness seeking care in the ED of a large hospital were enrolled, with mPCR performed with a weekly alternation in the ED as a POCT (week A) or in the central laboratory (week B).

Results

474 patients were analysed: 275 during A weeks and 199 during B weeks. Patient characteristics were similar. The hospital LOS (median 7 days during week A versus 7 days during week B, P = 0.29), the proportion of patients with ED-LOS <1 day (63% versus 60%, P = 0.57) and ED antibiotic prescription (59% versus 58%, P = 0.92) were not significantly different. Patients in the POCT arm were more frequently assigned a single room when having a positive PCR for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus and metapneumovirus [52/70 (74%) versus 19/38 (50%) in the central testing arm, P = 0.012].

Conclusions

Syndromic testing performed in the ED compared with the central laboratory failed to reduce the LOS or antibiotic consumption in patients with acute respiratory illness, but was associated with an increased single-room assignment among patients in whom a significant respiratory pathogen was detected.

Circulation of Respiratory Viruses in Hospitalized Adults before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Brescia, Italy: A Retrospective Study

Different preventive public health measures were adopted globally to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2, such as hand hygiene and the use of masks, travel restrictions, social distance actions such as the closure of schools and workplaces, case and contact tracing, quarantine and lockdown. These measures, in particular physical distancing and the use of masks, might have contributed to containing the spread of other respiratory viruses that occurs principally by contact and droplet routes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of different respiratory viruses (influenza viruses A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza viruses 1, 2, 3 and 4, rhinovirus, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and human coronaviruses) after one year of the pandemic. Furthermore, another aim was to evaluate the possible impact of these non-pharmaceutical measures on the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses. This single center study was conducted between January 2017-February 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and March 2020-May 2021 (pandemic period). All adults >18 years with respiratory symptoms and tested for respiratory pathogens were included in the study. Nucleic acid detection of all respiratory viruses was performed by multiplex real time PCR. Our results show that the test positivity for influenza A and B, metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and human coronaviruses decreased with statistical significance during the pandemic. Contrary to this, for adenovirus the decrease was not statistically significant. Conversely, a statistically significant increase was detected for rhinovirus. Coinfections between different respiratory viruses were observed during the pre-pandemic period, while the only coinfection detected during pandemic was between SARS-CoV-2 and rhinovirus. To understand how the preventive strategies against SARS-CoV-2 might alter the transmission dynamics and epidemic patterns of respiratory viruses is fundamental to guide future preventive recommendations.

Comparative incidence and burden of respiratory viruses associated with hospitalization in adults in New York City

BACKGROUND

Although the burden of influenza is well characterized, the burden of community-onset non-influenza respiratory viruses has not been systematically assessed. Understanding the severity and seasonality of non-influenza viruses, including human coronaviruses, will provide a better understanding of the overall disease burden from respiratory viruses that could better inform resource utilization for hospitals and highlight the value of preventative strategies, including vaccines.

METHODS

From October 2017 to September 2019, a retrospective study was performed in a pre-defined catchment area to estimate the population-based incidence of community-onset respiratory viruses associated with hospitalization. Included patients were ≥18 years old, resided in New York City, were hospitalized for ≥24 hours, and had a respiratory virus detected within 3 calendar-days of admission. Disease burden was measured by hospital length of stay (LOS), intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and in-hospital mortality and compared among those with laboratory-confirmed influenza versus those with laboratory-confirmed non-influenza viruses (human coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus, and adenovirus).

RESULTS

During the study period, 4232 eligible patients were identified of whom 50.9% were ≥65 years of age. For each virus, the population-based incidence was highest for those ≥80 years of age. When compared to those with influenza viruses detected, those with non-influenza respiratory viruses detected (combined) had higher population-based incidence, significantly more ICU admissions, and higher in-house mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of non-influenza respiratory viruses for hospitalized adults is substantial. Prevention and treatment strategies are needed for non-influenza respiratory viruses, particularly for older adults.

In-hospital and midterm out-hospital complications of adults hospitalised with respiratory syncytial virus infection in France, 2017-2019: an observational study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the clinical characteristics and in/out-hospital outcomes of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection among adults hospitalised with influenza-like illness (ILI) and compared against patients admitted for influenza.

METHODS

Adults hospitalised with ILI were prospectively included from five French university hospitals over two consecutive winter seasons (2017/2018 and 2018/2019). RSV and influenza virus were detected by multiplex RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal swabs. RSV-positive patients were compared to RSV-negative and influenza-positive hospitalised patients. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) associated with in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes between RSV and influenza infections. The in-hospital outcome was a composite of the occurrence of at least one complication, length of stay ≥7 days, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, use of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death. Post-discharge outcome included 30/90-day all-cause mortality and 90-day readmission rates.

RESULTS

Overall, 1,428 hospitalised adults with ILI were included. RSV was detected in 8% (114/1428) and influenza virus in 31% (437/1428). Patients hospitalised with RSV were older than those with influenza (mean age, 73.0 versus 68.8 years; p=0.015) with a higher frequency of respiratory (52% versus 39%, p=0.012) or cardiac chronic diseases (52% versus 41%, p=0.039) and longer hospitalisation duration (median stay 8 versus 6 days, p<0.001). Anti-influenza therapies were less prescribed among RSV than influenza patients (20% versus 66%, p<0.001). In-hospital composite outcome was poorer in RSV patients (adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR)=1.5; 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 1.1-2.1) than in those hospitalised with influenza. No difference was observed for the post-discharge composite outcome (aPR=1.1; 95% CI 0.8-1.6).

CONCLUSION

RSV infection results in serious respiratory illness with in-hospital outcomes worse than influenza and with similar midterm post-discharge outcomes.

Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic on Crowding: A Call to Action for Effective Solutions to “Access Block”

Introduction

Healthcare patterns change during disease outbreaks and pandemics. Identification of modified patterns is important for future preparedness and response. Emergency department (ED) crowding can occur because of the volume of patients waiting to be seen, which results in delays in patient assessment or treatment and impediments to leaving the ED once treatment is complete. Therefore, ED crowding has become a growing problem worldwide and represents a serious barrier to healthcare operations.

Methods

This observational study was based on a retrospective review of the epidemiologic and clinical records of patients who presented to the Foundation IRCCS Policlinic San Matteo in Pavia, Italy, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak (February 21–May 1, 2020, pandemic group). The methods involved an estimation of the changes in epidemiologic and clinical data from the annual baseline data after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Results

We identified reduced ED visits (180 per day in the control period vs 96 per day in the pandemic period; P < 0.001) during the COVID-19 pandemic, irrespective of age and gender, especially for low-acuity conditions. However, patients who did present to the ED were more likely to be hemodynamically unstable, exhibit abnormal vital signs, and more frequently required high-intensity care and hospitalization. During the pandemic, ED crowding dramatically increased primarily because of an increased number of visits by patients with high-acuity conditions, changes in patient management that prolonged length of stay, and increased rates of boarding, which led to the inability of patients to gain access to appropriate hospital beds within a reasonable amount of time. During the pandemic, all crowding output indices increased, especially the rates of boarding (36% vs 57%; P < 0.001), “access block” (24% vs 47%; P < 0.001), mean boarding time (640 vs 1,150 minutes [min]; P 0.001), mean “access block” time (718 vs 1,223 min; P < 0.001), and “access block” total time (650,379 vs 1,359,172 min; P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Crowding in the ED during the COVID-19 pandemic was due to the inability to access hospital beds. Therefore, solutions to this lack of access are required to prevent a recurrence of crowding due to a new viral wave or epidemic.

Characterization of Functional Components in Bovine Colostrum That Inhibit Norovirus Capsid Protruding Domains Interacting with HBGA Ligands

Human noroviruses (huNoVs) cause epidemic acute gastroenteritis with significant mortality and morbidity worldwide. However, there are no commercial vaccines or antivirals against these important pathogens so far. In this study, we found that bovine colostrum (bCM) inhibited huNoV VLPs and their capsid-protruding (P) domains binding to histo-blood group antigens (HBGAs) that are huNoV receptor or attachment factors for infection, suggesting that bCM may function as a natural antiviral against huNoVs. We then characterized the bCM for the functional inhibition components by sequentially separating bCM into multiple fractions through various chromatography approaches, followed by determining their inhibitory abilities against huNoV receptor-binding P protein interacting with HBGAs. The protein components of bCM functional fractions were examined by two-dimensional polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (2D-PAGE). Our data suggested that some milk proteins, likely in the form of glycoproteins, contribute to the observed blocking effects of bCM. Our findings lay an important foundation to further develop bCM into a potential natural antiviral against huNoVs.

Priorities for developing respiratory syncytial virus vaccines in different target populations

The development of an effective vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has been hampered by major difficulties that occurred in the 1960s when a formalin-inactivated vaccine led to increased severity of RSV disease after acquisition of the virus in the RSV season after vaccination. Recent renewed efforts to develop a vaccine have resulted in about 38 candidate vaccines and monoclonal antibodies now in clinical development. The target populations for effective vaccination are varied and include neonates, young children, pregnant women, and older adults. The reasons for susceptibility to infection in each of these groups may be different and, therefore, could require different vaccine types for induction of protective immune responses, adding a further challenge for vaccine development. Here, we review the current knowledge of RSV vaccine development for these target populations and propose a view and rationale for prioritizing RSV vaccine development.

Influence of age, sex and respiratory viruses on the rates of emergency department visits and hospitalisations with respiratory tract infections, asthma and COPD

Background

The importance of age, sex and respiratory virus prevalence in emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalisations for respiratory tract infections (RTIs), asthma and COPD in a whole population over time is not well established.

Methods

This study retrospectively analysed data for daily ED visits and hospitalisations from 2003 to 2013 in Ontario, Canada and the daily number of virus positive tests. Daily numbers of ED visits and hospitalisations with RTIs, asthma and COPD listed as a primary diagnosis were collected from the Canadian Institute for Health Information. Virus data were obtained from the Respiratory Virus Detection Surveillance System. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the association of individual viruses with the daily rates.

Results

There were 4 365 578 ED visits and 321 719 (7.4%) admissions for RTIs, 817 141 ED visits and 260 665 (31.9%) admissions for COPD and 649 666 ED visits and 68 626 (10.6%) admissions for asthma. Respiratory syncytial virus and influenza A were associated with male ED visits, whereas human rhinovirus was associated with female ED visits for RTIs in preschool children. 19.2% of males, but only 7.2% of females were admitted. The correlation between the prevalence of each virus and ED visits and hospitalisations for asthma was weak, irrespective of age group and sex. Influenza A was most strongly associated with COPD ED visits and hospitalisations in males and females.

Conclusions

There are significant age and sex differences in the contribution of respiratory viruses to the number of ED visits and hospitalisations for RTIs, asthma and COPD.

There are important age- and sex-related differences in the contribution of respiratory viruses to the number of ED visits and hospitalisations for respiratory tract infections, asthma and COPDhttps://bit.ly/39hrhIW

Risk factors associated with the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness: data from a web-based syndromic surveillance system in the Netherlands

During the first wave of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 epidemic in the Netherlands, notifications consisted mostly of patients with relatively severe disease. To enable real-time monitoring of the incidence of mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) – for which medical consultation might not be required – the Infectieradar web-based syndromic surveillance system was launched in mid-March 2020. Our aim was to quantify associations between Infectieradar participant characteristics and the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness. Recruitment for this cohort study was via a web announcement. After registering, participants completed weekly questionnaires, reporting the occurrence of a set of symptoms. The incidence rate of COVID-19-like illness was estimated and multivariable Poisson regression used to estimate the relative risks associated with sociodemographic variables, lifestyle factors and pre-existing medical conditions. Between 17 March and 24 May 2020, 25 663 active participants were identified, who reported 7060 episodes of COVID-19-like illness over 131 404 person-weeks of follow-up. The incidence rate declined over the analysis period, consistent with the decline in notified cases. Male sex, age 65+ years and higher education were associated with a significantly lower COVID-19-like illness incidence rate (adjusted rate ratios (RRs) of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84), 0.77 (0.70–0.85), 0.84 (0.80–0.88), respectively) and the baseline characteristics ever-smoker, asthma, allergies, diabetes, chronic lung disease, cardiovascular disease and children in the household were associated with a higher incidence (RRs of 1.11 (1.04–1.19) to 1.69 (1.50–1.90)). Web-based syndromic surveillance has proven useful for monitoring the temporal trends in, and risk factors associated with, the incidence of mild disease. Increased relative risks observed for several patient factors could reflect a combination of exposure risk, susceptibility to infection and propensity to report symptoms.

Respiratory-tract infections among geriatrics: prevalence and factors associated with the treatment outcomes

Background:

Geriatric individuals are more susceptible to different infections, especially respiratory-tract infections (RTIs) due to their compromised immune system. Hence, the objectives of the present study were to evaluate the prevalence, medication regimen complexity and factors associated with the treatment outcomes of different RTIs among geriatrics.

Methods:

A retrospective cross-sectional study (5 years) was conducted at the respiratory department, Hospital Pulau Pinang. Patients aged ⩾65 years with confirmed diagnosis of RTI were included in the study.

Results:

A total of 474 patients were included, and the most prevalent RTIs were community-acquired pneumonia (65.6%) followed by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (20.7%), bronchitis (8.2%) and hospital-acquired pneumonia (5.5%). Amoxicillin/clavulanate (69.8%), ampicillin/sulbactam (9.1%) and cefuroxime (6.5%) are the most common antibiotics prescribed to treat RTIs among geriatrics. Smoking, alcohol consumption, polypharmacy and presence of other co-morbidities are statistically significant factors associated with treatment outcomes of RTIs among geriatrics.

Conclusion:

Prevalence of community-acquired pneumonia (65.6%) among older patients aged 65 years and older higher than other RTIs. Smoking, alcohol use, presence of polypharmacy and other co-morbidities are important factors associated with the treatment outcomes of RTIs.

The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Modeling Infection and Tropism of Human Parainfluenza Virus Type 3 in Ferrets

Human parainfluenza virus type 3 (HPIV-3) is a significant cause of lower respiratory tract infections, with the most severe disease in young infants, immunocompromised individuals, and the elderly. HPIV-3 infections are currently untreatable with licensed therapeutics, and prophylactic and therapeutic options are needed for patients at risk. To complement existing human airway models of HPIV-3 infection and develop an animal model to assess novel intervention strategies, we evaluated infection and transmission of HPIV-3 in ferrets. A well-characterized human clinical isolate (CI) of HPIV-3 engineered to express enhanced green fluorescent protein (rHPIV-3 CI-1-EGFP) was passaged on primary human airway epithelial cells (HAE) or airway organoids (AO) to avoid tissue culture adaptations. rHPIV3 CI-1-EGFP infection was assessed in vitro in ferret AO and in ferrets in vivo. Undifferentiated and differentiated ferret AO cultures supported rHPIV-3 CI-1-EGFP replication, but the ferret primary airway cells from AO were less susceptible and permissive than HAE. In vivo rHPIV-3 CI-1-EGFP replicated in the upper and lower airways of ferrets and targeted respiratory epithelial cells, olfactory epithelial cells, type I pneumocytes, and type II pneumocytes. The infection efficiently induced specific antibody responses. Taken together, ferrets are naturally susceptible to HPIV-3 infection; however, limited replication was observed that led to neither overt clinical signs nor ferret-to-ferret transmission. However, in combination with ferret AO, the ferret model of HPIV-3 infection, tissue tropism, and neutralizing antibodies complements human ex vivo lung models and can be used as a platform for prevention and treatment studies for this important respiratory pathogen. IMPORTANCE HPIV-3 is an important cause of pediatric disease and significantly impacts the elderly. Increasing numbers of immunocompromised patients suffer from HPIV-3 infections, often related to problems with viral clearance. There is a need to model HPIV-3 infections in vitro and in vivo to evaluate novel prophylaxis and treatment options. Currently existing animal models lack the potential for studying animal-to-animal transmission or the effect of immunosuppressive therapy. Here, we describe the use of the ferret model in combination with authentic clinical viruses to further complement human ex vivo models, providing a platform to study approaches to prevent and treat HPIV-3 infection. Although we did not detect ferret-to-ferret transmission in our studies, these studies lay the groundwork for further refinement of the ferret model to immunocompromised ferrets, allowing for studies of severe HPIV-3-associated disease. Such models for preclinical evaluation of prophylaxis and antivirals can contribute to reducing the global health burden of HPIV-3.

A Sharp Decline in Burden of Stroke in Rural China During COVID-19 Pandemic

This study aimed to explore trends in the burden from stroke associated with home quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients with a first-ever stroke registered between January 1 and April 20 from 2010 to 2020 were included in this study. We compared the incidence and the rates of mortality, hospitalization, and diagnosis by neuroimaging for first-ever stroke among a low-income population in rural China during the study periods. Overall, 377 first-ever stroke patients were analyzed in this study period; men accounted for 59.2%. Compared with 2019, the incidence of first-ever stroke was 73.5% lower in 2020 (P < 0.001). The incidence of first-ever stroke was lower by 64.18% in 2020 than in the previous 5 years (P = 0.002) and by 65.42% in 2020 than in the previous 10 years (P = 0.001). Mortality from first-ever stroke in 2020 was not significantly different from that in 2019, but it was noticeably lower than that for the previous 5 and 10 years. However, rates of hospitalization and diagnosis by neuroimaging remained stable across the study period. These findings suggest that the home quarantine helped reduce outdoor activities at low temperatures, restrict gatherings, reduce alcoholism and high-fat diet, and lower pollution caused by factories. These changes were advantageous for helping high-risk groups to reduce the burden of stroke.

Excess Deaths during Influenza and Coronavirus Disease and Infection-Fatality Rate for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, the Netherlands

Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12–19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017–18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.

Consultations for Influenza-Like Illness in Primary Care in The Netherlands: A Regression Approach

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the general practitioner (GP) consultation rate attributable to influenza in The Netherlands.

METHODS

Regression analysis was performed on the weekly numbers of influenza-like illness (ILI) GP consultations and laboratory reports for influenza virus types A and B and 8 other pathogens over the period 2003-2014 (11 influenza seasons; week 40-20 of the following year).

RESULTS

In an average influenza season, 27% and 11% of ILI GP consultations were attributed to infection by influenza virus types A and B, respectively. Influenza is therefore responsible for approximately 107 000 GP consultations (651/100 000) each year in The Netherlands. GP consultation rates associated with influenza infection were highest in children under 5 years of age, at 667 of 100 000 for influenza A and 258 of 100 000 for influenza B. Influenza virus infection was found to be the predominant cause of ILI-related GP visits in all age groups except children under 5, in which respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection was found to be the main contributor.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of influenza in terms of GP consultations is considerable. Overall, influenza is the main contributor to ILI. Although ILI symptoms in children under 5 years of age are most often associated with RSV infection, the majority of visits related to influenza occur among children under 5 years of age.

Respiratory Sarcopenia and Sarcopenic Respiratory Disability: Concepts, Diagnosis, and Treatment

The condition of muscle fiber atrophy and weakness that occurs in respiratory muscles along with systemic skeletal muscle with age is known as respiratory sarcopenia. The Japanese Working Group of Respiratory Sarcopenia of the Japanese Association of Rehabilitation Nutrition narratively reviews these areas, and proposes the concept and diagnostic criteria. We have defined respiratory sarcopenia as "whole-body sarcopenia and low respiratory muscle mass followed by low respiratory muscle strength and/or low respiratory function." Respiratory sarcopenia can be caused by various factors such as aging, decreased activity, undernutrition, disease, cachexia, and iatrogenic causes. We have also created an algorithm for diagnosing respiratory sarcopenia. Respiratory function decreases with age in healthy older people, along with low respiratory muscle mass and strength. We have created a new term, "Presbypnea," meaning a decline in respiratory function with aging. Minor functional respiratory disability due to aging, such as that indicated by a modified Medical Research Council level 1 (troubled by shortness of breath when hurrying or walking straight up hill), is an indicator of presbypnea. We also define sarcopenic respiratory disability as "a disability with deteriorated respiratory function that results from respiratory sarcopenia." Sarcopenic respiratory disability is diagnosed if respiratory sarcopenia is present with functional disability. Cases of respiratory sarcopenia without functional disability are diagnosed as "at risk of sarcopenic respiratory disability." Functional disability is defined as a modified Medical Research Council grade of 2 or more. Rehabilitation nutrition, treatment that combines rehabilitation and nutritional management, may be adequate to prevent and treat respiratory sarcopenia and sarcopenic respiratory disability.

Influenza-associated mortality in hospital care: a retrospective cohort study of risk factors and impact of oseltamivir in an English teaching hospital, 2016 to 2017

Background

Evidence of an oseltamivir treatment effect on influenza A(H3N2) virus infections in hospitalised patients is incomplete.

Aims

This cohort study aimed to evaluate risk factors for death among PCR-confirmed hospitalised cases of seasonal influenza A(H3N2) of all ages and the impact of oseltamivir.

Methods

Participants included all 332 PCR-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) cases diagnosed between 30 August 2016 and 17 March 2017 in an English university teaching Hospital. Oseltamivir treatment effect on odds of inpatient death was assessed by backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The odds of death were reduced by two thirds (odds ratio (OR): 0.32; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.11–0.93), in inpatients treated with a standard course of oseltamivir 75 mg two times daily for 5 days – compared with those untreated with oseltamivir, after adjustment for age, sex, current excess alcohol intake, receipt of 2016/17 seasonal influenza vaccine, serum haemoglobin and hospital vs community attribution of acquisition of influenza.

Conclusions

Oseltamivir treatment given according to National Institutes of Clinical Excellence (NICE); United States Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines was shown to be effective in reducing the odds of mortality in inpatients with PCR-confirmed seasonal influenza A(H3N2) after adjustment in a busy routine English hospital setting. Our results highlight the importance of hospitals complying with relevant guidelines for prompt seasonal influenza PCR testing and ensuring standard oseltamivir treatment to all PCR-confirmed cases of seasonal influenza.

Use of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to assess national surveillance data for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2017

Background

To control respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which causes acute respiratory infections, data and methods to assess its epidemiology are important.

Aim

We sought to describe RSV seasonality, affected age groups and RSV-type distribution over 12 consecutive seasons in the Netherlands, as well as to validate the moving epidemic method (MEM) for monitoring RSV epidemics.

Methods

We used 2005−17 laboratory surveillance data and sentinel data. For RSV seasonality evaluation, epidemic thresholds (i) at 1.2% of the cumulative number of RSV-positive patients per season and (ii) at 20 detections per week (for laboratory data) were employed. We also assessed MEM thresholds.

Results

In laboratory data RSV was reported 25,491 times (no denominator). In sentinel data 5.6% (767/13,577) of specimens tested RSV positive. Over 12 seasons, sentinel data showed percentage increases of RSV positive samples. The average epidemic length was 18.0 weeks (95% confidence intervals (CI):  16.3–19.7) and 16.5 weeks (95% CI: 14.0–18.0) for laboratory and sentinel data, respectively. Epidemics started on average in week 46 (95% CI: 45–48) and 47 (95% CI:  46–49), respectively. The peak was on average in the first week of January in both datasets. MEM showed similar results to the other methods. RSV incidence was highest in youngest (0–1 and >1–2 years) and oldest (>65–75 and > 75 years) age groups, with age distribution remaining stable over time. RSV-type dominance alternated every one or two seasons.

Conclusions

Our findings provide baseline information for immunisation advisory groups. The possibility of employing MEM to monitor RSV epidemics allows prospective, nearly real-time use of surveillance data.

Rotavirus disease and genotype diversity in older children and adults in Australia

Background

Rotavirus is a major cause of gastroenteritis in children <5 years of age. The disease burden in older children, adults, and the elderly is underappreciated. This study describes rotavirus disease and genotypic diversity in the Australian population comprising children ≥5 years of age and adults.

Methods

Rotavirus positive fecal samples were collected from laboratories Australia-wide participating in the Australian Rotavirus Surveillance Program between 2010 and 2018. Rotavirus samples were genotyped using a heminested multiplex reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. Notification data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System were also analyzed.

Results

Rotavirus disease was highest in children aged 5–9 years and adults ≥85 years. G2P[4] was the dominant genotype in the population ≥5 years of age. Genotype distribution fluctuated annually and genotypic diversity varied among different age groups. Geographical differences in genotype distribution were observed based on the rotavirus vaccine administered to infants <1 year of age.

Conclusions

This study revealed a substantial burden of rotavirus disease in the population ≥5 years of age, particularly in children 5–9 years and the elderly. This study highlights the continued need for rotavirus surveillance across the population, despite the implementation of efficacious vaccines.

Mortality attributable to seasonal influenza in Greece, 2013 to 2017: variation by type/subtype and age, and a possible harvesting effect

IntroductionEstimating the contribution of influenza to excess mortality in the population presents substantial methodological challenges.AimIn a modelling study we combined environmental, epidemiological and laboratory surveillance data to estimate influenza-attributable mortality in Greece, over four seasons (2013/14 to 2016/17), specifically addressing the lag dimension and the confounding effect of temperature.MethodsAssociations of influenza type/subtype-specific incidence proxies and of daily mean temperature with mortality were estimated with a distributed-lag nonlinear model with 30 days of maximum lag, separately by age group (all ages, 15-64 and ≥ 65 years old). Total and weekly deaths attributable to influenza and cold temperatures were calculated.ResultsOverall influenza-attributable mortality was 23.6 deaths per 100,000 population per year (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.8 to 29.2), and varied greatly between seasons, by influenza type/subtype and by age group, with the vast majority occurring in persons aged ≥ 65 years. Most deaths were attributable to A(H3N2), followed by influenza B. During periods of A(H1N1)pdm09 circulation, weekly attributable mortality to this subtype among people ≥ 65 years old increased rapidly at first, but then fell to zero and even negative, suggesting a mortality displacement (harvesting) effect. Mortality attributable to cold temperatures was much higher than that attributable to influenza.ConclusionsStudies of influenza-attributable mortality need to consider distributed-lag effects, stratify by age group and adjust both for circulating influenza virus types/subtypes and daily mean temperatures, in order to produce reliable estimates. Our approach addresses these issues, is readily applicable in the context of influenza surveillance, and can be useful for other countries.

The association between influenza infections in primary care and intensive care admissions for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI): A modelling approach

Background

The burden of severe influenza virus infections is poorly known, for which surveillance of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is encouraged. Hospitalized SARI patients are however not always tested for influenza virus infection. Thus, to estimate the impact of influenza circulation we studied how influenza in primary care relates to intensive care unit (ICU) admissions using a modelling approach.

Methods

We used time‐series regression modelling to estimate a) the number of SARI admissions to ICU associated with medically attended influenza infections in primary care; b) how this varies by season; and c) the time lag between SARI and influenza time series. We analysed weekly adult ICU admissions (registry data) and adult influenza incidence (primary care surveillance data) from July 2007 through June 2016.

Results

Depending on the year, 0% to 12% of annual SARI admissions were associated with influenza (0‐554 in absolute numbers; population rate: 0/10 000‐0.39/10 000 inhabitants), up to 27% during influenza epidemics. The average optimal fitting lag was +1 week (SARI trend preceding influenza by 1 week), varying between seasons (−1 to +4) with most seasons showing positive lags.

Conclusion

Up to 12% of yearly SARI admissions to adult ICU are associated with influenza, but with large year‐to‐year variation and higher during influenza epidemics. In most years, SARI increases earlier than medically attended influenza infections in the general population. SARI surveillance could thus complement influenza‐like illness surveillance by providing an indication of the season‐specific burden of severe influenza infections and potential early warning of influenza activity and severity.

Prevalence and contribution of respiratory viruses in the community to rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations with respiratory tract infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma

Background

The individual and combined contribution of viral prevalence in the community to Emergency Department (ED) visits and hospitalizations with respiratory tract infections (RTIs), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma is unclear.

Methods

A retrospective analysis on daily viral positive tests and daily ED visits and hospitalizations between 01/01/2003 to 31/12/2013 in Ontario, Canada. Viral data was collected from the Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (CIRID). The Canadian Institute for Health Information reports daily ED visits and hospitalizations for RTIs, COPD and asthma as a primary diagnosis.

Results

There were 4,365,578 ED visits with RTIs of which 321,719 (7.4%) were admitted to hospital; 817,141 ED visits for COPD of which 260,665 (31.9%) were admitted and 649,666 ED visits with asthma of which 68,626 (10.6%) were admitted. The percentage of positive tests to influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus prevalence explained 57.4% of ED visits and 63.8% of hospitalizations for RTI, 41.4% of ED visits and 39.2% of hospitalizations with COPD but only 1.5% of ED visits and 2.7% of hospitalizations for asthma. The further addition of human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus and coronavirus over the final 3 years accounted for 66.7% of ED visits and 74.4% of hospitalizations for RTI, 52.5% of visits and 48.2% of hospitalizations for COPD, and only 13.3% of visits and 10.4% of hospitalizations for asthma.

Conclusions

Community respiratory viral epidemics are major drivers of ED visits and hospitalizations with RTIs and COPD but only a modest contributor to asthma.