Predicting the Next Influenza Pandemics

Risk Assessment Tools from the One Health Perspective: A Narrative Review

Background

61% of the infections around the world that have emerged to date are zoonotic. Evidence warns that the threat posed by zoonoses is on the rise, and the risk of a new pandemic is higher now than ever. Early identification of risk, populations at risk, and risk of transmission are essential steps towards a prevention, preparation and response to outbreaks. This review aims to look at the tools available for identifying and estimating risks and threats from one health perspective and finally propose a list of indicators which could assess the risk of transmission of disease at the humans, animals and the environment intersection.

Methods

The databases like PubMed, google scholar, Embase and Scopus were used to extract the relevant articles. A search was carried out using a keyword. A total of 1311 articles were listed initially after the search and reviewed. Out of 1311, only 26 tools which assessed the risk of diseases mainly infectious or were relevant to risk of transmission of any infectious diseases were included in the review.

Results

The tools included in this review involve risk assessment at the environmental, animal and human dimensions. The tools are used to evaluate the contamination of the environment due to chemicals or toxins or the risk of transmission of infection due to environmental factors like air contamination, to identify the animal diseases like bovine respiratory disease and foot and mouth disease and to estimate the human health risk at the community or individual levels.

Conclusion

Risk assessment tools are an essential part of the prevention of pandemics. These tools are helpful in assessing the risk of transmission of infections either from human to human, between human and animals, between animals and animals and so on. Thus this review gives us an insight into the existing risk assessment tools and the need for a One Health risk assessment tools to prevent outbreaks in future. It also provides a list of factors that can be included in a one health risk assessment tool.

Applying valency-based immuno-selection to generate broadly cross-reactive antibodies against influenza hemagglutinins

Conserved epitopes shared between virus subtypes are often subdominant, making it difficult to induce broadly reactive antibodies by immunization. Here, we generate a plasmid DNA mix vaccine that encodes protein heterodimers with sixteen different influenza A virus hemagglutinins (HA) representing all HA subtypes except H1 (group 1) and H7 (group 2). Each single heterodimer expresses two different HA subtypes and is targeted to MHC class II on antigen presenting cells (APC). Female mice immunized with the plasmid mix produce antibodies not only against the 16 HA subtypes, but also against non-included H1 and H7. We demonstrate that individual antibody molecules cross-react between different HAs. Furthermore, the mix vaccine induces T cell responses to conserved HA epitopes. Immunized mice are partially protected against H1 viruses. The results show that application of valency-based immuno-selection to diversified antigens can be used to direct antibody responses towards conserved (subdominant) epitopes on viral antigens.

The convergent evolution of influenza A virus: Implications, therapeutic strategies and what we need to know

Influenza virus infection, more commonly known as the 'cold flu', is an etiological agent that gives rise to recurrent annual flu and many pandemics. Dated back to the 1918- Spanish Flu, the influenza infection has caused the loss of many human lives and significantly impacted the economy and daily lives. Influenza virus can be classified into four different genera: influenza A-D, with the former two, influenza A and B, relevant to humans. The capacity of antigenic drift and shift in Influenza A has given rise to many novel variants, rendering vaccines and antiviral therapies useless. In light of the emergence of a novel betacoronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2, unravelling the underpinning mechanisms that support the recurrent influenza epidemics and pandemics is essential. Given the symptom similarities between influenza and covid infection, it is crucial to reiterate what we know about the influenza infection. This review aims to describe the origin and evolution of influenza infection. Apart from that, the risk factors entail the implication of co-infections, especially regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is further discussed. In addition, antiviral strategies, including the potential of drug repositioning, are discussed in this context. The diagnostic approach is also critically discussed in an effort to understand better and prepare for upcoming variants and potential influenza pandemics in the future. Lastly, this review encapsulates the challenges in curbing the influenza spread and provides insights for future directions in influenza management.

Development of in ovo-compatible NS1-truncated live attenuated influenza vaccines by modulation of hemagglutinin cleavage and polymerase acidic X frameshifting sites

Emerging avian influenza viruses pose a high risk to poultry production, necessitating the need for more broadly protective vaccines. Live attenuated influenza vaccines offer excellent protective efficacies but their use in poultry farms is discouraged due to safety concerns related to emergence of reassortant viruses. Vaccination of chicken embryos inside eggs (in ovo) induces early immunity in young chicks while reduces the safety concerns related to the use of live vaccines on farms. However, in ovo vaccination using influenza viruses severely affects the egg hatchability. We previously engineered a high interferon-inducing live attenuated influenza vaccine candidate with an enhanced protective efficacy in chickens. Here, we asked whether we could further modify this high interferon-inducing vaccine candidate to develop an in ovo-compatible live attenuated influenza vaccine. We first showed that the enhanced interferon responses induced by the vaccine is not enough to attenuate the virus in ovo. To reduce the pathogenicity of the virus for chicken embryos, we replaced the hemagglutinin cleavage site of the H7 vaccine virus (PENPKTR/GL) with that of the H6-subtype viruses (PQIETR/GL) and disrupted the ribosomal frameshifting site responsible for viral polymerase acidic X protein expression. In ovo vaccination of chickens with up to 10⁵ median egg infectious dose of the modified vaccine had minimal effects on hatchability while protecting the chickens against a heterologous challenge virus at two weeks of age. This study demonstrates that targeted genetic mutations can be applied to further attenuate and enhance the safety of live attenuated influenza vaccines to develop future in ovo vaccines for poultry.

Vaccines and cardiovascular outcomes: lessons learned from influenza epidemics

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the world and is largely preventable. An increasing amount of evidence suggests that annual influenza vaccination reduces CVD-related morbidity and mortality. Despite various clinical guidelines recommending annual influenza vaccination for the general population for influenza-like illness risk reduction, with a particular emphasis on people with CVD, vaccination rates fall consistently below the goal established by the World Health Organization. This review outlines the importance of influenza vaccination, mechanisms of cardiovascular events in influenza, summarizing the available literature on the effects of influenza vaccine in CVD and the benefits of influenza vaccine during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Avian H7N9 influenza viruses are evolutionarily constrained by stochastic processes during replication and transmission in mammals

H7N9 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have caused over 1,500 documented human infections since emerging in 2013. Although wild-type H7N9 AIVs can be transmitted by respiratory droplets in ferrets, they have not yet caused widespread outbreaks in humans. Previous studies have revealed molecular determinants of H7N9 AIV host switching, but little is known about potential evolutionary constraints on this process. Here, we compare patterns of sequence evolution for H7N9 AIV and mammalian H1N1 viruses during replication and transmission in ferrets. We show that three main factors-purifying selection, stochasticity, and very narrow transmission bottlenecks-combine to severely constrain the ability of H7N9 AIV to effectively adapt to mammalian hosts in isolated, acute spillover events. We find rare evidence of natural selection favoring new, potentially mammal-adapting mutations within ferrets but no evidence of natural selection acting during transmission. We conclude that human-adapted H7N9 viruses are unlikely to emerge during typical spillover infections. Our findings are instead consistent with a model in which the emergence of a human-transmissible virus would be a rare and unpredictable, though highly consequential, 'jackpot' event. Strategies to control the total number of spillover infections will limit opportunities for the virus to win this evolutionary lottery.

Pseudotyped Viruses for Influenza

We have developed an influenza hemagglutinin (HA) pseudotype (PV) library encompassing all influenza A (IAV) subtypes from HA1-HA18, influenza B (IBV) subtypes (both lineages), representative influenza C (ICV), and influenza D (IDV) viruses. These influenza HA (or hemagglutinin-esterase fusion (HEF) for ICV and IDV) pseudotypes have been used in a pseudotype microneutralization assay (pMN), an optimized luciferase reporter assay, that is highly sensitive and specific for detecting neutralizing antibodies against influenza viruses. This has been an invaluable tool in detecting the humoral immune response against specific hemagglutinin or hemagglutinin-esterase fusion proteins for IAV to IDV in serum samples and for screening antibodies for their neutralizing abilities. Additionally, we have also produced influenza neuraminidase (NA) pseudotypes for IAV N1-N9 subtypes and IBV lineages. We have utilized these NA-PV as surrogate antigens in in vitro assays to assess vaccine immunogenicity. These NA PV have been employed as the source of neuraminidase enzyme activity in a pseudotype enzyme-linked lectin assay (pELLA) that is able to measure neuraminidase inhibition (NI) titers of reference antisera, monoclonal antibodies, and postvaccination sera. Here we show the production of influenza HA, HEF, and NA PV and their employment as substitutes for wild-type viruses in influenza serological and neutralization assays. We also introduce AutoPlate, an easily accessible web app that can analyze data from pMN and pELLA quickly and efficiently, plotting inhibition curves and calculating half-maximal concentration (IC₅₀) neutralizing antibody titers. These serological techniques coupled with user-friendly analysis tools are faster, safer, inexpensive alternatives to classical influenza assays while also offering the reliability and reproducibility to advance influenza research and make it more accessible to laboratories around the world.

FBXO6 regulates the antiviral immune responses via mediating alveolar macrophages survival

Inducing early apoptosis in alveolar macrophages is one of the strategies influenza A virus (IAV) evolved to subvert host immunity. Correspondingly, the host mitochondrial protein nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor (NLR)X1 is reported to interact with virus polymerase basic protein 1-frame 2 (PB1-F2) accessory protein to counteract virus-induced apoptosis. Herein, we report that one of the F-box proteins, FBXO6, promotes proteasomal degradation of NLRX1, and thus facilitates IAV-induced alveolar macrophages apoptosis and modulates both macrophage survival and type I interferon (IFN) signaling. We observed that FBXO6-deficient mice infected with IAV exhibited decreased pulmonary viral replication, alleviated inflammatory-associated pulmonary dysfunction, and less mortality. Analysis of the lungs of IAV-infected mice revealed markedly reduced leukocyte recruitment but enhanced production of type I IFN in Fbxo6^-/- mice. Furthermore, increased type I IFN production and decreased viral replication were recapitulated in FBXO6 knockdown macrophages and associated with reduced apoptosis. Through gain- and loss-of-function studies, we found lung resident macrophages but not bone marrow-derived macrophages play a key role in the differences FBXO6 signaling pathway brings in the antiviral immune response. In further investigation, we identified that FBXO6 interacted with and promoted the proteasomal degradation of NLRX1. Together, our results demonstrate that FBXO6 negatively regulates immunity against IAV infection by enhancing the degradation of NLRX1 and thus impairs the survival of alveolar macrophages and antiviral immunity of the host.

The Role of Natural Language Processing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Health Applications, Opportunities, and Challenges

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most devastating public health crisis in at least a century and has affected the lives of billions of people worldwide in unprecedented ways. Compared to pandemics of this scale in the past, societies are now equipped with advanced technologies that can mitigate the impacts of pandemics if utilized appropriately. However, opportunities are currently not fully utilized, particularly at the intersection of data science and health. Health-related big data and technological advances have the potential to significantly aid the fight against such pandemics, including the current pandemic's ongoing and long-term impacts. Specifically, the field of natural language processing (NLP) has enormous potential at a time when vast amounts of text-based data are continuously generated from a multitude of sources, such as health/hospital systems, published medical literature, and social media. Effectively mitigating the impacts of the pandemic requires tackling challenges associated with the application and deployment of NLP systems. In this paper, we review the applications of NLP to address diverse aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. We outline key NLP-related advances on a chosen set of topics reported in the literature and discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with applying NLP during the current pandemic and future ones. These opportunities and challenges can guide future research aimed at improving the current health and social response systems and pandemic preparedness.

Influenza A (N1-N9) and Influenza B (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata) Neuraminidase Pseudotypes as Tools for Pandemic Preparedness and Improved Influenza Vaccine Design

To better understand how inhibition of the influenza neuraminidase (NA) protein contributes to protection against influenza, we produced lentiviral vectors pseudotyped with an avian H11 hemagglutinin (HA) and the NA of all influenza A (N1–N9) subtypes and influenza B (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata). These NA viral pseudotypes (PV) possess stable NA activity and can be utilized as target antigens in in vitro assays to assess vaccine immunogenicity. Employing these NA PV, we developed an enzyme-linked lectin assay (pELLA) for routine serology to measure neuraminidase inhibition (NI) titers of reference antisera, monoclonal antibodies and post-vaccination sera with various influenza antigens. We also show that the pELLA is more sensitive than the commercially available NA-Fluor™ in detecting NA inhibition in these samples. Our studies may lead to establishing the protective NA titer that contributes to NA-based immunity. This will aid in the design of superior, longer lasting and more broadly protective vaccines that can be employed together with HA-targeted vaccines in a pre-pandemic approach.

Influenza virus genotype to phenotype predictions through machine learning: a systematic review

Background: There is great interest in understanding the viral genomic predictors of phenotypic traits that allow influenza A viruses to adapt to or become more virulent in different hosts. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated promise in addressing this critical need for other pathogens because the underlying algorithms are especially well equipped to uncover complex patterns in large datasets and produce generalizable predictions for new data. As the body of research where these techniques are applied for influenza A virus phenotype prediction continues to grow, it is useful to consider the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches to understand what has prevented these models from seeing widespread use by surveillance laboratories and to identify gaps that are underexplored with this technology. Methods and Results: We present a systematic review of English literature published through 15 April 2021 of studies employing machine learning methods to generate predictions of influenza A virus phenotypes from genomic or proteomic input. Forty-nine studies were included in this review, spanning the topics of host discrimination, human adaptability, subtype and clade assignment, pandemic lineage assignment, characteristics of infection, and antiviral drug resistance. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that biases in model design and a dearth of wet laboratory follow-up may explain why these models often go underused. We, therefore, offer guidance to overcome these limitations, aid in improving predictive models of previously studied influenza A virus phenotypes, and extend those models to unexplored phenotypes in the ultimate pursuit of tools to enable the characterization of virus isolates across surveillance laboratories.

Understanding small Chinese cities as COVID-19 hotspots with an urban epidemic hazard index

Multiple small- to middle-scale cities, mostly located in northern China, became epidemic hotspots during the second wave of the spread of COVID-19 in early 2021. Despite qualitative discussions of potential social-economic causes, it remains unclear how this unordinary pattern could be substantiated with quantitative explanations. Through the development of an urban epidemic hazard index (EpiRank) for Chinese prefectural districts, we came up with a mathematical explanation for this phenomenon. The index is constructed via epidemic simulations on a multi-layer transportation network interconnecting local SEIR transmission dynamics, which characterizes intra- and inter-city population flow with a granular mathematical description. Essentially, we argue that these highlighted small towns possess greater epidemic hazards due to the combined effect of large local population and small inter-city transportation. The ratio of total population to population outflow could serve as an alternative city-specific indicator of such hazards, but its effectiveness is not as good as EpiRank, where contributions from other cities in determining a specific city's epidemic hazard are captured via the network approach. Population alone and city GDP are not valid signals for this indication. The proposed index is applicable to different epidemic settings and can be useful for the risk assessment and response planning of urban epidemic hazards in China. The model framework is modularized and the analysis can be extended to other nations.

MD simulation of the interaction between sialoglycans and the second sialic acid binding site of influenza A virus N1 neuraminidase

The neuraminidases (NAs) of avian influenza viruses (IAVs) contain a second sialic acid-binding site (2SBS), historically known as the hemadsorption site, which is separated from the sialyl-hydrolase catalytic site and serves to facilitate NA catalytic activity towards multivalent sialyl-capped glycoconjugates. Transmission and adaptation of avian IAVs to humans decreases hemadsorption and catalytic activities of the NA. Here, we report the molecular recognition features of the NA 2SBS of two pandemic H1N1 IAVs, A/Brevig Mission /1/1918 (BM18) and A/California/04/2009 (CA09), differing by their 2SBS activity. Using explicit solvent MD simulation, molecular mechanics, and glycosidic conformation analysis we initially analyzed the interactions of BM18 2SBS with two sialyllacto-N-tetraose pentasaccharides, 3'SLN-LC and 6'SLN-LC, which are models for the glycan receptors of IAVs in birds and humans, respectively. These studies characterize the binding specificity of BM18 2SBS towards human-type and avian-type receptors and identifies the key amino acids that affects binding. We next compared the interactions of the 2SBSs of BM18 and CA09 with 6'SLN-LC, revealing the critical effect of amino acid 372 on binding. Our results expand the current knowledge of the molecular features of NA 2SBSs and its alteration during the adaptation of avian IAVs to humans.

Viral Subpopulation Screening Guides in Designing a High Interferon-Inducing Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine by Targeting Rare Mutations in NS1 and PB2 Proteins

Influenza A viruses continue to circulate among wild birds and poultry worldwide, posing constant pandemic threats to humans. Effective control of emerging influenza viruses requires new broadly protective vaccines. Live attenuated influenza vaccines with truncations in nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) have shown broad protective efficacies in birds and mammals, which correlate with the ability to induce elevated interferon responses in the vaccinated hosts. Given the extreme diversity of influenza virus populations, we asked if we could improve an NS1-truncated live attenuated influenza vaccine developed for poultry (PC4) by selecting viral subpopulations with enhanced interferon-inducing capacities. Here, we deconstructed a de novo population of PC4 through plaque isolation, created a large library of clones, and assessed their interferon-inducing phenotypes. While most of the clones displayed the parental interferon-inducing phenotype in cell culture, few clones showed enhanced interferon-inducing phenotypes in cell culture and chickens. The enhanced interferon-inducing phenotypes were linked to either a deletion in NS1 (NS1Δ76-86) or a substitution in polymerase basic 2 protein (PB2-D309N). The NS1Δ76-86 deletion disrupted the putative eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4GI-binding domain and promoted the synthesis of biologically active interferons. The PB2-D309N substitution enhanced the early transcription of interferon mRNA, revealing a novel role for the 309D residue in suppression of interferon responses. We combined these mutations to engineer a novel vaccine candidate that induced additive amounts of interferons and stimulated protective immunity in chickens. Therefore, viral subpopulation screening approaches can guide the design of live vaccines with strong immunostimulatory properties.IMPORTANCE Effectiveness of NS1-truncated live attenuated influenza vaccines relies heavily on their ability to induce elevated interferon responses in vaccinated hosts. Influenza viruses contain diverse particle subpopulations with distinct phenotypes. We show that live influenza vaccines can contain underappreciated subpopulations with enhanced interferon-inducing phenotypes. The genomic traits of such virus subpopulations can be used to further improve the efficacy of the current live vaccines.

Accounting for cross-immunity can improve forecast accuracy during influenza epidemics

Previous exposure to influenza viruses confers cross-immunity against future infections with related strains. However, this is not always accounted for explicitly in mathematical models used for forecasting during influenza outbreaks. We show that, if an influenza outbreak is due to a strain that is similar to one that has emerged previously, then accounting for cross-immunity explicitly can improve the accuracy of real-time forecasts. To do this, we consider two infectious disease outbreak forecasting models. In the first (the "1-group model"), all individuals are assumed to be identical and cross-immunity is not accounted for. In the second (the "2-group model"), individuals who have previously been infected by a related strain are assumed to be less likely to experience severe disease, and therefore recover more quickly, than immunologically naive individuals. We fit both models to estimated case notification data (including symptomatic individuals as well as laboratory-confirmed cases) from Japan from the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and then generate synthetic data for a future outbreak by assuming that the 2-group model represents the epidemiology of influenza infections more accurately. We use the 1-group model (as well as the 2-group model for comparison) to generate forecasts that would be obtained in real-time as the future outbreak is ongoing, using parameter values estimated from the 2009 epidemic as informative priors, motivated by the fact that without using prior information from 2009, the forecasts are highly uncertain. In the scenario that we consider, the 1-group model only produces accurate outbreak forecasts once the peak of the epidemic has passed, even when the values of important epidemiological parameters such as the lengths of the mean incubation and infectious periods are known exactly. As a result, it is necessary to use the more epidemiologically realistic 2-group model to generate accurate forecasts. Accounting for cross-immunity driven by exposures in previous outbreaks explicitly is expected to improve the accuracy of epidemiological modelling forecasts during influenza outbreaks.

Equine-Like H3 Avian Influenza Viruses in Wild Birds, Chile

Since their discovery in the United States in 1963, outbreaks of infection with equine influenza virus (H3N8) have been associated with serious respiratory disease in horses worldwide. Genomic analysis suggests that equine H3 viruses are of an avian lineage, likely originating in wild birds. Equine-like internal genes have been identified in avian influenza viruses isolated from wild birds in the Southern Cone of South America. However, an equine-like H3 hemagglutinin has not been identified. We isolated 6 distinct H3 viruses from wild birds in Chile that have hemagglutinin, nucleoprotein, nonstructural protein 1, and polymerase acidic genes with high nucleotide homology to the 1963 H3N8 equine influenza virus lineage. Despite the nucleotide similarity, viruses from Chile were antigenically more closely related to avian viruses and transmitted effectively in chickens, suggesting adaptation to the avian host. These studies provide the initial demonstration that equine-like H3 hemagglutinin continues to circulate in a wild bird reservoir.

Rapid High-Yield Production of Functional SARS-CoV-2 Receptor Binding Domain by Viral and Non-Viral Transient Expression for Pre-Clinical Evaluation

Vaccine design strategies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are focused on the Spike protein or its subunits as the main antigen target of neutralizing antibodies. In this work, we propose rapid production methods of an extended segment of the Spike Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) in HEK293SF cells cultured in suspension, in serum-free media, as a major component of a COVID-19 subunit vaccine under development. The expression of RBD, engineered with a sortase-recognition motif for protein-based carrier coupling, was achieved at high yields by plasmid transient transfection or human type-5-adenoviral infection of the cells, in a period of only two and three weeks, respectively. Both production methods were evaluated in 3L-controlled bioreactors with upstream and downstream bioprocess improvements, resulting in a product recovery with over 95% purity. Adenoviral infection led to over 100 µg/mL of RBD in culture supernatants, which was around 7-fold higher than levels obtained in transfected cultures. The monosaccharide and sialic acid content was similar in the RBD protein from the two production approaches. It also exhibited a proper conformational structure as recognized by monoclonal antibodies directed against key native Spike epitopes. Efficient direct binding to ACE2 was also demonstrated at similar levels in RBD obtained from both methods and from different production lots. Overall, we provide bioprocess-related data for the rapid, scalable manufacturing of low cost RBD based vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, with the added value of making a functional antigen available to support further research on uncovering mechanisms of virus binding and entry as well as screening for potential COVID-19 therapeutics.

Social media can have an impact on how we manage and investigate the COVID-19 pandemic

• In situations of emergencies and urgencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, many are disseminating information through social media channels; this has an impact on billions of persons worldwide. • Misinformation about the current pandemic occurs frequently in these platforms and can have serious consequences. • When properly used, social media can be a useful tool that provides opportunities to disseminate and receive relevant information for patients, clinicians, and scientists. • Better research methods and proper use of these platforms by health scientists and the public are warranted to address social media's role in health policy and individual decisions. A multidisciplinary approach with better outreach and dissemination is optimal.

Influenza Vaccination to Reduce Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality in Patients With COVID-19: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

Viral respiratory infections are risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Underlying CVD is also associated with an increased risk of complications following viral respiratory infections, including increased morbidity, mortality, and health care utilization. Globally, these phenomena are observed with seasonal influenza and with the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Persons with CVD represent an important target population for respiratory virus vaccines, with capacity developed within 3 large ongoing influenza vaccine cardiovascular outcomes trials to determine the potential cardioprotective effects of influenza vaccines. In the context of COVID-19, these international trial networks may be uniquely positioned to redeploy infrastructure to study therapies for primary and secondary prevention of COVID-19. Here, we describe mechanistic links between influenza and COVID-19 infection and the risk of acute cardiovascular events, summarize the data to date on the potential cardioprotective effects of influenza vaccines, and describe the ongoing influenza vaccine cardiovascular outcomes trials, highlighting important lessons learned that are applicable to COVID-19.

COVID-19 Effects on Livestock Production: A One Welfare Issue

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights that we exist in a global community. From a single city, it spread to 188 countries across the world and infected 30 million people by September 18, 2020. Decades of modeling pandemics predicted potential consequences, but COVID-19's impact on the food supply chain, and specifically livestock production was unexpected. Clusters of cases among workers in meat processing plants evolved quickly to affect human, animal, and environmental welfare in several countries. In processing plants, the hygiene focus is on product quality and food safety. Because of their close proximity to one another, COVID-19 spread rapidly between workers and the lack of sick leave and health insurance likely resulted in workers continuing to work when infectious. In the United States (U.S.) many processing plants shut down when they identified major outbreaks, putting pressure especially on pig and poultry industries. At one point, there was a 45% reduction in pig processing capacity meaning about 250,000 pigs per day were not slaughtered. This resulted in longer transport distances to plants in operation with extra capacity, but also to crowding of animals on farm. Producers were encouraged to slow growth rates, but some had to cull animals on farm in ways that likely included suffering and caused considerable upset to owners and workers. Carcass disposal was also associated with potential biosecurity risks and detrimental effects on the environment. Hence, this is a One Welfare issue, affecting human, animal, and environmental welfare and highlighting the fragility of intensive, high-throughput livestock production systems. This model needs to be re-shaped to include the animal, human, and environmental elements across the farm to fork chain. Such a One Welfare approach will ensure that food production systems are resilient, flexible, and fair in the face of future challenges.

Neuroimaging in Zoonotic Outbreaks Affecting the Central Nervous System: Are We Fighting the Last War?

When preparing for the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and its effects on the CNS, radiologists should be familiar with neuroimaging appearances in past zoonotic infectious disease outbreaks. Organisms that have crossed the species barrier from animals to humans include viruses such as Hendra, Nipah, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and influenza, as well as bacteria and others. Brain CT and MR imaging findings have included cortical abnormalities, microinfarction in the white matter, large-vessel occlusion, and features of meningitis. In particular, the high sensitivity of diffusion-weighted MR imaging in detecting intracranial abnormalities has been helpful in outbreaks. Although the coronaviruses causing the previous Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak and the current coronavirus disease 19 pandemic are related, it is important to be aware of their similarities as well as potential differences. This review describes the neuroimaging appearances of selected zoonotic outbreaks so that neuroradiologists can better understand the current pandemic and potential future outbreaks.

Computational predicting the human infectivity of H7N9 influenza viruses isolated from avian hosts

The genome composition of a given avian influenza virus is the primary determinant of its potential for cross-species transmission from birds to humans. Here, we introduce a viral genome-based computational tool that can be used to evaluate the human infectivity of avian isolates of influenza A H7N9 viruses, which can enable prediction of the potential risk of these isolates infecting humans. This tool, which is based on a novel class weight-biased logistic regression (CWBLR) algorithm, uses the sequences of the eight genome segments of an H7N9 strain as the input and gives the probability of this strain infecting humans (reflecting its human infectivity). We examined the replication efficiency and the pathogenicity of several H7N9 avian isolates that were predicted to have very low or high human infectivity by the CWBLR model in cell culture and in mice, and found that the strains with high predicted human infectivity replicated more efficiently in mammalian cells and were more infective in mice than those that were predicted to have low human infectivity. These results demonstrate that our CWBLR model can serve as a powerful tool for predicting the human infectivity and cross-species transmission risks of H7N9 avian strains.

Social media can have an impact on how we manage and investigate the COVID-19 pandemic

•

In situations of emergencies and urgencies, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, many are disseminating information through social media channels; this has an impact on billions of persons worldwide.

•

Misinformation about the current pandemic occurs frequently in these platforms and can have serious consequences.

•

When properly used, social media can be a useful tool that provides opportunities to disseminate and receive relevant information for patients, clinicians, and scientists.

•

Better research methods and proper use of these platforms by health scientists and the public are warranted to address social media's role in health policy and individual decisions. A multidisciplinary approach with better outreach and dissemination is optimal.

Protection From Influenza by Intramuscular Gene Vector Delivery of a Broadly Neutralizing Nanobody Does Not Depend on Antibody Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity

Cross-subtype neutralizing single domain antibodies against influenza present new opportunities for immunoprophylaxis and pandemic preparedness. Their simple modular structure and single open reading frame format are highly amenable to gene therapy-mediated delivery. We have previously described R1a-B6, an alpaca-derived single domain antibody (nanobody), that is capable of potent cross-subtype neutralization in vitro of H1N1, H5N1, H2N2, and H9N2 influenza viruses, through binding to a highly conserved epitope in the influenza hemagglutinin stem region. To evaluate the potential of R1a-B6 for immunoprophylaxis, we have reformatted it as an Fc fusion for adeno-associated viral (AAV) vector delivery. Our findings demonstrate that a single intramuscular injection in mice of AAV encoding R1a-B6 fused to Fc fragments of different isotypes equipped either, with or without antibody dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) activity, was able to drive sustained high-level expression (0.5-1.1 mg/mL) in sera with no evidence of reduction for up to 6 months. R1a-B6-Fc fusions of both isotypes gave complete protection against lethal challenge with both pandemic A/California/07/2009 (H1N1)pdm09 and avian influenza A/Vietnam/1194/2004 (H5N1). This data suggests that R1a-B6 is capable of cross-subtype protection and ADCC was not essential for R1a-B6 efficacy. Our findings demonstrate AAV delivery of cross-subtype neutralizing nanobodies may be an effective strategy to prevent influenza infection and provide long-term protection independent of a host induced immune response.

Design of fluorinated sialic acid analog inhibitor to H5 hemagglutinin of H5N1 influenza virus through molecular dynamics simulation study

Influenza epidemics and pandemics are caused by influenza A virus. The cell surface protein of hemagglutinin and neuraminidase is responsible for viral infection and release of progeny virus on the host cell membrane. Now 18 hemagglutinin and 11 neuraminidase subtypes are identified. The avian influenza virus of H5N1 is an emergent threat to public health issues. To control the influenza viral infection it is necessary to develop antiviral inhibitors and vaccination. In the present investigation we carried out 50 ns Molecular Dynamics simulation on H5 hemagglutinin of Influenza A virus H5N1 complexed with fluorinated sialic acid by substituting fluorine atoms at any two hydroxyls of sialic acid by considering combinatorial combination. The binding affinity between the protein-ligand complex system is investigated by calculating pair interaction energy and MM-PBSA binding free energy. All the complex structures are stabilized by hydrogen bonding interactions between the H5 protein and the ligand fluorinated sialic acid. It is concluded from all the analyses that the fluorinated complexes enhance the inhibiting potency against H5 hemagglutinin and the order of inhibiting potency is SIA-F9 ≫ SIA-F2 ≈ SIA-F7 ≈ SIA-F2F4 ≈ SIA-F2F9 ≈ SIA-F7F9 > SIA-F7F8 ≈ SIA-F2F8 ≈ SIA-F8F9 > SIA-F4 ≈ SIA-F4F7 ≈ SIA-F4F8 ≈ SIA-F8 ≈ SIA-F2F7 ≈ SIA > SIA-F4F9. This study suggests that one can design the inhibitor by using the mono fluorinated models SIA-F9, SIA-F2 and SIA-F7 and difluorinated models SIA-F2F4, SIA-F2F9 and SIA-F7F9 to inhibit H5 of H5N1 to avoid Influenza A viral infection.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Detection of pandemic influenza A/H1N1/pdm09 virus among pigs but not in humans in slaughterhouses in Kenya, 2013-2014

Objective

We conducted four cross-sectional studies over 1 year among humans and pigs in three slaughterhouses in Central and Western Kenya (> 350 km apart) to determine infection and exposure to influenza A viruses. Nasopharyngeal (NP) and oropharyngeal (OP) swabs were collected from participants who reported acute respiratory illness (ARI) defined as fever, cough or running nose. Nasal swabs and blood samples were collected from pigs. Human NP/OP and pig nasal swabs were tested for influenza A virus by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and pig serum was tested for anti-influenza A antibodies by ELISA.

Results

A total of 288 participants were sampled, 91.3% of them being male. Fifteen (5.2%) participants had ARI but the nine swabs collected from them were negative for influenza A virus by PCR. Of the 1128 pigs sampled, five (0.4%) nasal swabs tested positive for influenza A/H1N1/pdm09 by PCR whereas 214 of 1082 (19.8%) serum samples tested for Influenza A virus antibodies. There was higher seroprevalence in colder months and among pigs reared as free-range. These findings indicate circulation of influenza A/H1N1/pdm09 among pigs perhaps associated with good adaptation of the virus to the pig population after initial transmission from humans to pigs.

Influenza A Virus Subpopulations and Their Implication in Pathogenesis and Vaccine Development

The concept of influenza A virus (IAV) subpopulations emerged approximately 75 years ago, when Preben von Magnus described "incomplete" virus particles that interfere with the replication of infectious virus. It is now widely accepted that infectious particles constitute only a minor portion of biologically active IAV subpopulations. The IAV quasispecies is an extremely diverse swarm of biologically and genetically heterogeneous particle subpopulations that collectively influence the evolutionary fitness of the virus. This review summarizes the current knowledge of IAV subpopulations, focusing on their biologic and genomic diversity. It also discusses the potential roles IAV subpopulations play in virus pathogenesis and live attenuated influenza vaccine development.