Decreasing Incidence of Estrogen Receptor-Negative Breast Cancer in the United States: Trends by Race and Region

Trends in breast cancer incidence by estrogen receptor status in the United States, 2004-2020

Divergent trends of breast cancer incidence by subtype have been reported in the United States and elsewhere; however, it remains unknown whether this trend has continued until the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using high-quality population-based cancer registry data, representing 83% of the US population, this study examined breast cancer incidence rates by estrogen receptor (ER) status in women aged 20-84 years from 2004 to 2020. The incidence rate of ER-positive cancer increased by 1.75% per year from 2004 to 2009 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.26%-3.15%) and has slowed to a 0.87% annual increase (95% CI = 0.41%-1.03%) from 2009 to 2019, followed by a 10.2% reduction from 2019 to 2020. Trends were generally similar across race and ethnicity, although young women (20-49 years), Asian or Pacific Islander, and Hispanic women experienced steady increases until 2019. The incidence rate of ER-negative cancer decreased by 3.13% annually (95% CI = -4.2% to -2.55%) from 2004 to 2012, and the decrease stabilized from 2012 to 2019 (annual percent change: 0.55%; 95% CI = -1.30% to 0.92%), followed by a 6.0% reduction from 2019 to 2020, with trends generally consistent by age and across racial and ethnic groups. The stabilization of the steep decline in ER-negative cancer suggests a departure from the encouraging trajectories projected in earlier studies. Coupled with the deceleration in the rise of ER-positive cancer, the latest trend signals a potential stabilization in the previous rise of the proportional burden of ER-positive cancer. Understanding the impact of the pandemic on each subtype of breast cancer individually may provide a more comprehensive insight into its long-term sequelae on survival and mortality.

Screening for Breast Cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

Importance

Among all US women, breast cancer is the second most common cancer and the second most common cause of cancer death. In 2023, an estimated 43 170 women died of breast cancer. Non-Hispanic White women have the highest incidence of breast cancer and non-Hispanic Black women have the highest mortality rate.

Objective

The USPSTF commissioned a systematic review to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of different mammography-based breast cancer screening strategies by age to start and stop screening, screening interval, modality, use of supplemental imaging, or personalization of screening for breast cancer on the incidence of and progression to advanced breast cancer, breast cancer morbidity, and breast cancer-specific or all-cause mortality, and collaborative modeling studies to complement the evidence from the review.

Population

Cisgender women and all other persons assigned female at birth aged 40 years or older at average risk of breast cancer.

Evidence Assessment

The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that biennial screening mammography in women aged 40 to 74 years has a moderate net benefit. The USPSTF concludes that the evidence is insufficient to determine the balance of benefits and harms of screening mammography in women 75 years or older and the balance of benefits and harms of supplemental screening for breast cancer with breast ultrasound or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), regardless of breast density.

Recommendation

The USPSTF recommends biennial screening mammography for women aged 40 to 74 years. (B recommendation) The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening mammography in women 75 years or older. (I statement) The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of supplemental screening for breast cancer using breast ultrasonography or MRI in women identified to have dense breasts on an otherwise negative screening mammogram. (I statement).

Prognostic, diagnostic and clinicopathological roles of tsRNAs: a meta-analysis in breast cancer

Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most common malignancies in women and the leading cause of cancer-related death in women. The newly emerged non-coding RNAs tsRNAs (tRNA-derived small RNAs) play an important role in the occurrence and development of BC. The purpose of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the prognostic, diagnostic and clinicopathological roles of tsRNAs in BC. Through literature screening, a total of 13 BC-related tsRNA studies were included in this meta-analysis, all of which passed quality assessment. Prognostic studies showed upregulated tsRNAs to be associated with poor survival outcomes (HR = 1.64, 95%CI 1.51-1.77) and downregulated tsRNAs to be associated with better outcomes (HR = 0.58, 95%CI 0.50-0.68). Results of diagnostic studies showed a combined sensitivity of 72% (95%CI 68-76%) and combined specificity of 64% (95%CI 61-67%); the AUC was 0.72 (95%CI 0.68-0.75) and the DOR 4.62 (95%CI 3.76-5.68). Finally, correlation analysis of clinicopathological features showed that downregulation of tsRNAs correlated significantly with age, TNM stage and lymphatic metastasis. Sensitivity analysis and publication bias showed no significant difference. In conclusion, BC-associated tsRNAs are closely related to the prognosis and clinicopathological features of patients with this disease and can be used to assist in early diagnosis of BC. Therefore, tsRNAs are potential targets for the diagnosis and treatment of BC.

Light at night exposure and risk of breast cancer: a meta-analysis of observational studies

Objective

The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the impact of light at night (LAN) exposure on the risk of breast cancer across varying factors.

Method

We conducted a systematic search of literature up to July 15, 2023, including PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases, using keywords related to breast cancer and LAN exposure. Cohort study and case-control study literature on night light exposure and breast cancer risk were included. Statistical analyses were performed using Stata software version 17.0. To address heterogeneity among different studies, we employed a random-effects model for analysis and assessed publication bias using funnel plots and Egger's test.

Results

We included 13 case-control and 8 cohort studies with 734,372 participants worldwide. In the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) assessments, the average score was 7.43 (ranging from 5 to 9). The overall meta-analysis demonstrated a significant association between exposure to LAN and risk of breast cancer (RR = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.06-1.17; I2 = 31.3%, p < 0.001). In the subgroup analysis, the results of the analysis for study types (case-control studies: RR = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06-1.27; I2 = 40.4%, p = 0.001; cohort studies: RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04-1.14; I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.001) and the results for light exposure types (outdoor LAN: RR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.02-1.13; I2 = 30.9%, p = 0.004) are presented. In the analysis conducted for continents, the highest breast cancer risk was observed in the Asian population (Asian: RR = 1.24; 95% CI: 1.15-1.34; I2 = 0.0%, p < 0.001) and in the analysis of estrogen receptor status (ER+: RR = 1.10; 95% CI: 1.03-1.18; I2 = 17.0%, p = 0.005;). We also conducted an analysis on menopausal status and various lifestyles but did not find any statistically significant findings.

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates that LAN exposure is associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, particularly in the Asian population. Among the existing hypotheses, the idea that LAN exposure leads to a decrease in melatonin is widely accepted. However, until the mechanism of this effect is clearly elucidated, it is not recommended to take melatonin supplements for breast cancer prevention without medical advice. We hope to conduct more high-quality research, especially concerning the investigation of other environmental confounding factors, to further advance this field.

Race, Class, and Place Modify Mortality Rates for the Leading Causes of Death in the United States, 1999-2021

BACKGROUND

Race and ethnicity, socioeconomic class, and geographic location are well-known social determinants of health in the US. Studies of population mortality often consider two, but not all three of these risk factors.

OBJECTIVES

To disarticulate the associations of race (whiteness), class (socioeconomic status), and place (county) with risk of cause-specific death in the US.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective analysis of death certificate data. Bayesian regression models, adjusted for age and race/ethnicity from the American Community Survey and the county Area Deprivation Index, were used for inference.

MAIN MEASURES

County-level mortality for 11 leading causes of death (1999-2019) and COVID-19 (2020-2021).

KEY RESULTS

County "whiteness" and socioeconomic status modified death rates; geospatial effects differed by cause of death. Other factors equal, a 20% increase in county whiteness was associated with 5-8% increase in death from three causes and 4-15% reduction in death from others, including COVID-19. Other factors equal, advantaged counties had significantly lower death rates, even when juxtaposed with disadvantaged ones. Patterns of residual risk, measured by spatial county effects, varied by cause of death; for example: cancer and heart disease death rates were better explained by age, socioeconomic status, and county whiteness than were COVID-19 and suicide deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

There are important independent contributions from race, class, and geography to risk of death in the US.

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point-the number of leading singular vectors to retain-based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

Opportunities for Achieving the Cancer Moonshot Goal of a 50% Reduction in Cancer Mortality by 2047

On February 2, 2022, President Biden and First Lady Dr. Biden reignited the Cancer Moonshot, setting a new goal to reduce age-standardized cancer mortality rates by at least 50% over the next 25 years in the United States. We estimated trends in U.S. cancer mortality during 2000 to 2019 for all cancers and the six leading types (lung, colorectum, pancreas, breast, prostate, liver). Cancer death rates overall declined by 1.4% per year from 2000 to 2015, accelerating to 2.3% per year during 2016 to 2019, driven by strong declines in lung cancer mortality (-4.7%/year, 2014 to 2019). Recent declines in colorectal (-2.0%/year, 2010-2019) and breast cancer death rates (-1.2%/year, 2013-2019) also contributed. However, trends for other cancer types were less promising. To achieve the Moonshot goal, progress against lung, colorectal, and breast cancer deaths needs to be maintained and/or accelerated, and new strategies for prostate, liver, pancreatic, and other cancers are needed. We reviewed opportunities to prevent, detect, and treat these common cancers that could further reduce population-level cancer death rates and also reduce disparities.

SIGNIFICANCE

We reviewed opportunities to prevent, detect, and treat common cancers, and show that to achieve the Moonshot goal, progress against lung, colorectal, and breast cancer deaths needs to be maintained and/or accelerated, and new strategies for prostate, liver, pancreatic, and other cancers are needed. See related commentary by Bertagnolli et al., p. 1049. This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 1027.

Stressful Life Events, Social Support, and Incident Breast Cancer by Estrogen Receptor Status

Chronic stress affects immune function and hormonal signaling and has been hypothesized to be associated with breast cancer, although results from the few prior studies are mixed and have not examined potential differences by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Using the Women's Health Initiative study, we included 76,951 postmenopausal women followed for events for a median of 16.7 years to investigate the association between baseline self-reported stressful life events and incident breast cancer by ER status and whether the association was modified by social support. We generated Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for demographic, clinical, lifestyle/behavioral, and social factors to estimate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). The mean age was 63 (SD, 7.3), and majority of participants were White race (83.5%) and married or in a marriage-like relationship (63.0%). In analyses stratified by ER status, there was no relationship between stressful life events and ER-positive breast cancer. In contrast, compared with women in the lowest quartile, those in higher quartiles had an increased risk of ER-negative breast cancer, where those in quartile 4 had the highest risk (Quartile 4 vs. Quartile 1; HR = 1.30; 95%CI, 1.01-1.68; Ptrend = 0.050). Moreover, associations were stronger for the highest versus lowest quartile of stressful life events among widowed women (HR = 2.39; 95%CI, 1.29-4.44; Pinteraction<0.001). Association between stressful life events and ER-negative breast cancer was not modified by social support. In this cohort of postmenopausal women, higher experiences of prediagnostic stressful life events were associated with increased risk of ER-negative breast cancer.

PREVENTION RELEVANCE

Epidemiologic studies on the association between psychosocial stress and breast cancer risk remain inconsistent, while investigation of whether the association differs by ER status is limited. In this prospective cohort of postmenopausal women, high experiences of stressful life events were positively associated with ER-negative disease but not ER-positive.

Neighborhood factors and triple negative breast cancer: The role of cumulative exposure to area-level risk factors

BACKGROUND

Despite similar incidence rates among Black and White women, breast cancer mortality rates are 40% higher among Black women. More than half of the racial difference in breast cancer mortality can be attributed to triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), an aggressive subtype of invasive breast cancer that disproportionately affects Black women. Recent research has implicated neighborhood conditions in the etiology of TNBC. This study investigated the relationship between cumulative neighborhood-level exposures and TNBC risk.

METHODS

This single-institution retrospective study was conducted on a cohort of 3316 breast cancer cases from New Castle County, Delaware (from 2012 to 2020), an area of the country with elevated TNBC rates. Cases were stratified into TNBC and "Non-TNBC" diagnosis and geocoded by residential address. Neighborhood exposures included census tract-level measures of unhealthy alcohol use, metabolic dysfunction, breastfeeding, and environmental hazards. An overall cumulative risk score was calculated based on tract-level exposures.

RESULTS

Univariate analyses showed each tract-level exposure was associated with greater TNBC odds. In multivariate analyses that controlled for patient-level race and age, tract-level exposures were not associated with TNBC odds. However, in a second multivariate model that included patient-level variables and considered tract-level risk factors as a cumulative exposure risk score, each one unit increase in cumulative exposure was significantly associated with a 10% increase in TNBC odds. Higher cumulative exposure risk scores were found in census tracts with relatively high proportions of Black residents.

CONCLUSIONS

Cumulative exposure to neighborhood-level risk factors that disproportionately affect Black communities was associated with greater TNBC risk.

Breast Cancer Statistics, 2022

This article is the American Cancer Society's update on female breast cancer statistics in the United States, including population-based data on incidence, mortality, survival, and mammography screening. Breast cancer incidence rates have risen in most of the past four decades; during the most recent data years (2010-2019), the rate increased by 0.5% annually, largely driven by localized-stage and hormone receptor-positive disease. In contrast, breast cancer mortality rates have declined steadily since their peak in 1989, albeit at a slower pace in recent years (1.3% annually from 2011 to 2020) than in the previous decade (1.9% annually from 2002 to 2011). In total, the death rate dropped by 43% during 1989-2020, translating to 460,000 fewer breast cancer deaths during that time. The death rate declined similarly for women of all racial/ethnic groups except American Indians/Alaska Natives, among whom the rates were stable. However, despite a lower incidence rate in Black versus White women (127.8 vs. 133.7 per 100,000), the racial disparity in breast cancer mortality remained unwavering, with the death rate 40% higher in Black women overall (27.6 vs. 19.7 deaths per 100,000 in 2016-2020) and two-fold higher among adult women younger than 50 years (12.1 vs. 6.5 deaths per 100,000). Black women have the lowest 5-year relative survival of any racial/ethnic group for every molecular subtype and stage of disease (except stage I), with the largest Black-White gaps in absolute terms for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative disease (88% vs. 96%), hormone receptor-negative/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive disease (78% vs. 86%), and stage III disease (64% vs. 77%). Progress against breast cancer mortality could be accelerated by mitigating racial disparities through increased access to high-quality screening and treatment via nationwide Medicaid expansion and partnerships between community stakeholders, advocacy organizations, and health systems.

Incidence trends and predictive model of hepatic malignant tumors in children: a population-based study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the incidence trend and establish a model to predict the prognosis of hepatic malignant tumors in children (CHMTs).

METHODS

We analyzed the incidence data of CHMTs from 1975 to 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and evaluated the incidence trends based on different demographic and pathological features. We also analyzed clinicopathologic data from 2000 to 2018 from the SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to explore prognostic factors related to overall survival (OS). Then, we established nomograms based on independent predictors and verified them using receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis plots.

RESULTS

The incidence of CHMTs increased significantly, from 0.1 per 100,000 in 1975 to 0.4 per 100,000 in 2018. Incidences among different races and genders were increasing and converging. The incidence of hepatoblastoma (HB) increased, while that of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was relatively stable. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS rates were 86.2%, 77.5%, 74.2%, and 70.2%, respectively. Being Spanish-Hispanic-Latino, HB, surgery, and systemic therapy were independent predictors of longer OS, whereas regional and distant stages were independent predictors of shorter OS. Nomograms with good predictive ability and clinical utility were established to evaluate the prognosis of children with HB or HCC.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of CHMTs is increasing, especially for HB and in younger children. This study identified independent predictors and developed nomograms that could provide a personalized and accurate prognosis for CHMTs.

Temporal trends in Black-White disparities in cancer surgery and cancer-specific survival in the United States between 2007 and 2015

BACKGROUND

The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) has strived to address racial/ethnic disparities in cancer care since 2009. Surgery plays a pivotal role in cancer care; however, it is unclear whether and how racial/ethnic disparities in cancer surgery have changed over time.

METHODS

This cohort study included 1,113,256 White and Black cancer patients across 9 years (2007-2015) using patient data extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 registries. Patient data were included from 2007 to adjust insurance status and by 2015 to obtain at least a 3-year survival follow-up (until 2018). The primary outcome was a surgical intervention. The secondary outcomes were the use of (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Adjusted associations of the race (Black/White) with the outcomes were measured in each cancer type and year.

RESULTS

The gap between surgery rates for Black and White patients narrowed overall, from an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of 0.621 (0.592-0.652) in 2007 to 0.734 (0.702-0.768) in 2015. However, the racial gap persisted in the surgery rates for lung, breast, prostate, esophageal, and ovarian cancers. In surgically treated patients with lymph node metastasis, Black patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) were less likely to receive (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy than White patients. Black patients undergoing surgery were more likely to have a worse CSS rate than White patients undergoing surgery. In breast cancer patients, the overall trend was narrow, but continuously present, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.224 (1.278-1.173) in 2007 and 1.042 (1.132-0.96) in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, progress has been made toward narrowing the Black-White gap in cancer surgical opportunity and survival. Future efforts should be directed toward those specific cancers for which the Black-White gap continues. Additionally, it is worth addressing the Black-White gap regarding the use of (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy for CRC treatment.