Consequences of range contractions and range shifts on molecular diversity

Population Variation and Phylogeography of Cherry Blossom (Prunus conradinae) in China

Prunus conradinae (subgenus Cerasus, Rosaceae) is a significant germplasm resource of wild cherry blossom in China. To ensure the comprehensiveness of this study, we used a large sample size (12 populations comprising 244 individuals) which involved the fresh leaves of P. conradinae in Eastern, Central, and Southwestern China. We combined morphological and molecular evidence (three chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences and one nuclear DNA (nr DNA) sequence) to examine the population of P. conradinae variation and differentiation. Our results revealed that Central, East, and Southwest China are important regions for the conservation of P. conradinae to ensure adequate germplasm resources in the future. We also found support for a new variant, P. conradinae var. rubrum. We observed high genetic diversity within P. conradinae (haplotype diversity [Hd] = 0.830; ribotype diversity [Rd] = 0.798), with novel genetic variation and a distinct genealogical structure among populations. There was genetic variation among populations and phylogeographic structure among populations and three geographical groups (Central, East, and Southwest China). The genetic differentiation coefficient was the lowest in the Southwest region and the gene exchange was obvious, while the differentiation was obvious in Central China. In the three geographic groups, we identified two distinct lineages: an East China lineage (Central China and East China) and a Southwest China lineage ((Central China and Southwest China) and East China). These two lineages originated approximately 4.38 million years ago (Mya) in the early Pliocene due to geographic isolation. P. conradinae expanded from Central China to East China at 3.32 Mya (95% HPD: 1.12-5.17 Mya) in the Pliocene. The population of P. conradinae spread from East China to Southwest China, and the differentiation time was 2.17 Mya (95% (HPD: 0.47-4.54 Mya), suggesting that the population of P. conradinae differentiated first in Central and East China. The population of P. conradinae experienced differentiation from Central China to Southwest China around 1.10 Mya (95% HPD: 0.11-2.85 Mya) during the early Pleistocene of the Quaternary period. The southeastern region of East China, near Mount Wuyi, likely serves as a refuge for P. conradinae. This study establishes a theoretical foundation for the classification, identification, conservation, and exploitation of germplasm resources of P. conradinae.

Mechanistic modeling of climate effects on redistribution and population growth in a community of fish species

Understanding community responses to climate is critical for anticipating the future impacts of global change. However, despite increased research efforts in this field, models that explicitly include important biological mechanisms are lacking. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on species is complicated by the fact that the effects of climate variation may manifest at several points in the biological process. To this end, we extend a dynamic mechanistic model that combines population dynamics, such as species interactions, with species redistribution by allowing climate to affect both processes. We examine their relative contributions in an application to the changing biomass of a community of eight species in the Gulf of Maine using over 30 years of fisheries data from the Northeast Fishery Science Center. Our model suggests that the mechanisms driving biomass trends vary across space, time, and species. Phase space plots demonstrate that failing to account for the dynamic nature of the environmental and biologic system can yield theoretical estimates of population abundances that are not observed in empirical data. The stock assessments used by fisheries managers to set fishing targets and allocate quotas often ignore environmental effects. At the same time, research examining the effects of climate change on fish has largely focused on redistribution. Frameworks that combine multiple biological reactions to climate change are particularly necessary for marine researchers. This work is just one approach to modeling the complexity of natural systems and highlights the need to incorporate multiple and possibly interacting biological processes in future models.

Past human expansions shaped the spatial pattern of Neanderthal ancestry

The worldwide expansion of modern humans (Homo sapiens) started before the extinction of Neanderthals (Homo neanderthalensis). Both species coexisted and interbred, leading to slightly higher introgression in East Asians than in Europeans. This distinct ancestry level has been argued to result from selection, but range expansions of modern humans could provide an alternative explanation. This hypothesis would lead to spatial introgression gradients, increasing with distance from the expansion source. We investigate the presence of Neanderthal introgression gradients after past human expansions by analyzing Eurasian paleogenomes. We show that the out-of-Africa expansion resulted in spatial gradients of Neanderthal ancestry that persisted through time. While keeping the same gradient orientation, the expansion of early Neolithic farmers contributed decisively to reducing the Neanderthal introgression in European populations compared to Asian populations. This is because Neolithic farmers carried less Neanderthal DNA than preceding Paleolithic hunter-gatherers. This study shows that inferences about past human population dynamics can be made from the spatiotemporal variation in archaic introgression.

Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose a major threat to human and animal health, with more than 80% of the global population being at risk of acquiring at least one major VBD. Being profoundly affected by the ongoing climate change and anthropogenic disturbances, modelling approaches become an essential tool to assess and compare multiple scenarios (past, present and future), and further the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is rapidly becoming the gold-standard method for this task. The purpose of this overview is to provide an insight of the use of ENM to assess the geographic risk of transmission of VBDs. We have summarised some fundamental concepts and common approaches to ENM of VBDS, and then focused with a critical view on a number of crucial issues which are often disregarded when modelling the niches of VBDs. Furthermore, we have briefly presented what we consider the most relevant uses of ENM when dealing with VBDs. Niche modelling of VBDs is far from being simple, and there is still a long way to improve. Therefore, this overview is expected to be a useful benchmark for niche modelling of VBDs in future research.

Genetic and demographic consequences of range contraction patterns during biological annihilation

Species range contractions both contribute to, and result from, biological annihilation, yet do not receive the same attention as extinctions. Range contractions can lead to marked impacts on populations but are usually characterized only by reduction in extent of range. For effective conservation, it is critical to recognize that not all range contractions are the same. We propose three distinct patterns of range contraction: shrinkage, amputation, and fragmentation. We tested the impact of these patterns on populations of a generalist species using forward-time simulations. All three patterns caused 86-88% reduction in population abundance and significantly increased average relatedness, with differing patterns in declines of nucleotide diversity relative to the contraction pattern. The fragmentation pattern resulted in the strongest effects on post-contraction genetic diversity and structure. Defining and quantifying range contraction patterns and their consequences for Earth's biodiversity would provide useful and necessary information to combat biological annihilation.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Phylogeography of Tridentiger bifasciatus (Gobiidae) in the Northwestern Pacific

The shimofuri goby (Tridentiger bifasciatus) is native to marine, brackish, and fresh waters along the coasts of the northwest Pacific. Our study examined the population genetic structure, diversity, and demography of T. bifasciatus in the China Seas, including the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea, using the sequences of mitochondrial DNA [mtDNA cytochrome b (cyt b) gene and d-loop region] and nuclear DNA [nuDNA ryanodine receptor 3 (Ryr3) gene]. The mtDNA dataset revealed a significant population differentiation, but the nuDNA dataset displayed the absence of genetic differentiation. The discordance between these two datasets was accounted for by population admixture, selection, and incomplete lineage sorting. Although the mtDNA and nuDNA displayed a discordant population structure, these genetic markers revealed the same population history: (1) the populations retreated into two refugia during glaciations and (2) the populations declined recently. Our study revealed that after glaciations, the re-flooding in Taiwan Strait did not shape the migrations of the southern lineage from the South China Sea to the East China Sea, and displayed that two mtDNA lineages have diverged before they migrated southward during glaciations. These results offer important resources for the further study of conservation genetics.

Congruent evolutionary responses of European steppe biota to late Quaternary climate change

Quaternary climatic oscillations had a large impact on European biogeography. Alternation of cold and warm stages caused recurrent glaciations, massive vegetation shifts, and large-scale range alterations in many species. The Eurasian steppe biome and its grasslands are a noteworthy example; they underwent climate-driven, large-scale contractions during warm stages and expansions during cold stages. Here, we evaluate the impact of these range alterations on the late Quaternary demography of several phylogenetically distant plant and insect species, typical of the Eurasian steppes. We compare three explicit demographic hypotheses by applying an approach combining convolutional neural networks with approximate Bayesian computation. We identified congruent demographic responses of cold stage expansion and warm stage contraction across all species, but also species-specific effects. The demographic history of the Eurasian steppe biota reflects major paleoecological turning points in the late Quaternary and emphasizes the role of climate as a driving force underlying patterns of genetic variance on the biome level.

Searching for genetic evidence of demographic decline in an arctic seabird: beware of overlapping generations

Genetic data are useful for detecting sudden population declines in species that are difficult to study in the field. Yet this indirect approach has its own drawbacks, including population structure, mutation patterns, and generation overlap. The ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea), a long-lived Arctic seabird, is currently suffering from rapid alteration of its primary habitat (i.e., sea ice), and dramatic climatic events affecting reproduction and recruitment. However, ivory gulls live in remote areas, and it is difficult to assess the population trend of the species across its distribution. Here we present complementary microsatellite- and SNP-based genetic analyses to test a recent bottleneck genetic signal in ivory gulls over a large portion of their distribution. With attention to the potential effects of population structure, mutation patterns, and sample size, we found no significant signatures of population decline worldwide. At a finer scale, we found a significant bottleneck signal at one location in Canada. These results were compared with predictions from simulations showing how generation time and generation overlap can delay and reduce the bottleneck microsatellite heterozygosity excess signal. The consistency of the results obtained with independent methods strongly indicates that the species shows no genetic evidence of an overall decline in population size. However, drawing conclusions related to the species' population trends will require a better understanding of the effect of age structure in long-lived species. In addition, estimates of the effective global population size of ivory gulls were surprisingly low (~1000 ind.), suggesting that the evolutionary potential of the species is not assured.

Consequences of the Last Glacial Period on the Genetic Diversity of Southeast Asians

The last glacial period (LGP) promoted a loss of genetic diversity in Paleolithic populations of modern humans from diverse regions of the world by range contractions and habitat fragmentation. However, this period also provided some currently submersed lands, such as the Sunda shelf in Southeast Asia (SEA), that could have favored the expansion of our species. Concerning the latter, still little is known about the influence of the lowering sea level on the genetic diversity of current SEA populations. Here, we applied approximate Bayesian computation, based on extensive spatially explicit computer simulations, to evaluate the fitting of mtDNA data from diverse SEA populations with alternative evolutionary scenarios that consider and ignore the LGP and migration through long-distance dispersal (LDD). We found that both the LGP and migration through LDD should be taken into consideration to explain the currently observed genetic diversity in these populations and supported a rapid expansion of first populations throughout SEA. We also found that temporarily available lands caused by the low sea level of the LGP provided additional resources and migration corridors that favored genetic diversity. We conclude that migration through LDD and temporarily available lands during the LGP should be considered to properly understand and model the first expansions of modern humans.

Genome-Wide Evidence for Complex Hybridization and Demographic History in a Group of Cycas From China

Cycads represent one of the most ancestral living seed plants as well as one of the most threatened plant groups in the world. South China is a major center and potential origin of Cycas, the most rapidly diversified lineage of cycads. However, genomic-wide diversity of Cycas remains poorly understood due to the challenge of generating genomic markers associated with their inherent large genomes. Here, we perform a comprehensive conservation genomic study based on restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) data in six representative species of Cycas in South China. Consistently low genetic diversity and strong genetic differentiation were detected across species. Both phylogenetic inference and genetic structure analysis via several methods revealed generally congruent groups among the six Cycas species. The analysis with ADMIXTURE showed low mixing of genetic composition among species, while individuals of C. dolichophylla exhibited substantial genetic admixture with C. bifida, C. changjiangensis, and C. balansae. Furthermore, the results from Treemix, f₄-statistic, and ABBA-BABA test were generally consistent and revealed the complex patterns of interspecific gene flow. Relatively strong signals of hybridization were detected between C. dolichophylla and C. szechuanensis, and the ancestor of C. taiwaniana and C. changjiangensis. Distinct patterns of demographic history were inferred for these species by Stairway Plot, and our results suggested that both climate fluctuation and frequent geological activities during the late Pleistocene exerted deep impacts on the population dynamics of these species in South China. Finally, we explore the practical implications of our findings for the development of conservation strategies in Cycas. The present study demonstrates the efficiency of RADseq for conservation genomic studies on non-model species with large and complex genomes. Given the great significance of cycads as a radical transition in the evolution of plant biodiversity, our study provides important insights into the mechanisms of diversification in such recently radiated living fossil taxa.

Coalescence times, life history traits and conservation concerns: An example from four coastal shark species from the Indo-Pacific

Dispersal abilities play a crucial role in shaping the extent of population genetic structure, with more mobile species being panmictic over large geographical ranges and less mobile ones organized in metapopulations exchanging migrants to different degrees. In turn, population structure directly influences the coalescence pattern of the sampled lineages, but the consequences on the estimated variation of the effective population size (N_e ) over time obtained by means of unstructured demographic models remain poorly understood. However, this knowledge is crucial for biologically interpreting the observed N_e trajectory and further devising conservation strategies in endangered species. Here we investigated the demographic history of four shark species (Carharhinus melanopterus, Carharhinus limbatus, Carharhinus amblyrhynchos, Galeocerdo cuvier) with different degrees of endangered status and life history traits related to dispersal distributed in the Indo-Pacific and sampled off New Caledonia. We compared several evolutionary scenarios representing both structured (metapopulation) and unstructured models and then inferred the N_e variation through time. By performing extensive coalescent simulations, we provided a general framework relating the underlying population structure and the observed N_e dynamics. On this basis, we concluded that the recent decline observed in three out of the four considered species when assuming unstructured demographic models can be explained by the presence of population structure. Furthermore, we also demonstrated the limits of the inferences based on the sole site frequency spectrum and warn that statistics based on linkage disequilibrium will be needed to exclude recent demographic events affecting meta-populations.

Genetic History of the Remnant Population of the Rare Orchid Cypripedium calceolus Based on Plastid and Nuclear rDNA

The lady’s slipper orchid (Cypripedium calceolus), which inhabits shady deciduous and mixed forests and meadows, is now threatened with extinction in many European countries, and its natural populations have been dramatically declining in recent years. Knowledge of its evolutionary history, genetic variability, and processes in small populations are therefore crucial for the species’ protection. Nowadays, in south-west Poland, it is only distributed in seven small remnant and isolated populations, which we examined. One nuclear (ITS rDNA) and two plastid (accD-psa1, trnL-F) markers were analyzed and compared globally in this study. Based on the nuclear marker, the most common ancestor of C. calceolus and Cypripedium shanxiense existed about 2 million years ago (95% HPD: 5.33–0.44) in Asia. The division of the C. calceolus population into the European and Asian lineages indicated by C/T polymorphism started about 0.5 million years ago (95% HPD: 1.8–0.01). The observed variation of plastid DNA, which arose during the Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles, is still diffuse in Poland. Its distribution is explained by the result of fragmentation or habitat loss due to human impact on the environment.

Multisource noninvasive genetics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Greece reveals a highly structured population and a new matrilineal contact zone in southern Europe

In human-dominated landscapes, connectivity is crucial for maintaining demographically stable mammalian populations. Here, we provide a comprehensive noninvasive genetic study for the brown bear population in the Hellenic Peninsula. We analyze its population structuring and connectivity, estimate its population size throughout its distribution, and describe its phylogeography in detail for the first time. Our results, based on 150 multilocus genotypes and on 244-bp sequences of the mtDNA control region, show the population is comprised by three highly differentiated genetic clusters, consistent with geographical populations of Pindos, Peristeri, and Rhodope. By detecting two male bears with Rhodopean ancestry in the western demes, we provide strong evidence for the ongoing genetic connectivity of the geographically fragmented eastern and western distributions, which suggests connectivity of the larger East Balkan and Pindos-Dinara populations. Total effective population size (N e) was estimated to be 199 individuals, and total combined population size (N C) was 499, with each cluster showing a relatively high level of genetic variability, suggesting that migration has been sufficient to counteract genetic erosion. The mtNDA results were congruent with the microsatellite data, and the three genetic clusters were matched predominantly with an equal number of mtDNA haplotypes that belong to the brown bear Western mitochondrial lineage (Clade 1), with two haplotypes being globally new and endemic. The detection of a fourth haplotype that belongs to the Eastern lineage (Clade 3a1) in three bears from the western distribution places the southernmost secondary contact zone between the Eastern and Western lineages in Greece and generates new hypotheses about postglacial maxima migration routes. This work indicates that the genetic composition and diversity of Europe's low-latitude fringe population are the outcome of ancient and historical events and highlight its importance for the connectivity and long-term persistence of the species in the Balkans.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

Population genomic, climatic and anthropogenic evidence suggest the role of human forces in endangerment of green peafowl (Pavo muticus)

Both anthropogenic impacts and historical climate change could contribute to population decline and species extinction, but their relative importance is still unclear. Emerging approaches based on genomic, climatic and anthropogenic data provide a promising analytical framework to address this question. This study applied such an integrative approach to examine potential drivers for the endangerment of the green peafowl (Pavo muticus). Several demographic reconstructions based on population genomes congruently retrieved a drastic population declination since the mid-Holocene. Furthermore, a comparison between historical and modern genomes suggested genetic diversity decrease during the last 50 years. However, climate-based ecological niche models predicted stationary general range during these periods and imply the little impact of climate change. Further analyses suggested that human disturbance intensities were negatively correlated with the green peafowl's effective population sizes and significantly associated with its survival status (extirpation or persistence). Archaeological and historical records corroborate the critical role of humans, leaving the footprint of low genomic diversity and high inbreeding in the survival populations. This study sheds light on the potential deep-time effects of human disturbance on species endangerment and offers a multi-evidential approach in examining underlying forces for population declines.

Contrasting Trends of Population Size Change for Two Eurasian Owlet Species—Athene brama and Glaucidium radiatum From South Asia Over the Late Quaternary

Climatic oscillations over the Quaternary have had a lasting impact on species’ distribution, evolutionary history, and genetic composition. Many species show dramatic population size changes coinciding with the last glacial period. However, the extent and direction of change vary across biogeographic regions, species-habitat associations, and species traits. Here we use genomic data to assess population size changes over the late Quaternary using the Pairwise Sequential Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) approach in two Eurasian Owlet species—the Spotted Owlet, Athene brama, and the Jungle Owlet, Glaucidium radiatum. While Spotted Owlets are typically associated with open habitats, Jungle Owlets are found in deciduous forests and scrublands. We find that the effective population size for the Spotted Owlet increased after the Interglacial period till the Last Glacial Maxima and subsequently declined toward the Mid-Holocene. On the other hand, effective population size estimates for the Jungle Owlet increased gradually throughout this period. These observations are in line with climatic niche model-based predictions for range size change for both species from a previous study and suggest that habitat associations at the local scale are important in determining responses to past climatic and vegetational changes. The Spotted Owlet result also aligns well with the expectation of open habitat expansion during the arid Glacial Maxima, whereas for the Jungle Owlet the contrasting expectation does not hold. Therefore, assessing the impacts of glacial history on population trajectories of multiple species with different habitat associations is necessary to understand the impacts of past climate on South Asian taxa.

Evolution of Protein Structure and Stability in Global Warming

This review focuses on the molecular signatures of protein structures in relation to evolution and survival in global warming. It is based on the premise that the power of evolutionary selection may lead to thermotolerant organisms that will repopulate the planet and continue life in general, but perhaps with different kinds of flora and fauna. Our focus is on molecular mechanisms, whereby known examples of thermoresistance and their physicochemical characteristics were noted. A comparison of interactions of diverse residues in proteins from thermophilic and mesophilic organisms, as well as reverse genetic studies, revealed a set of imprecise molecular signatures that pointed to major roles of hydrophobicity, solvent accessibility, disulfide bonds, hydrogen bonds, ionic and π-electron interactions, and an overall condensed packing of the higher-order structure, especially in the hydrophobic regions. Regardless of mutations, specialized protein chaperones may play a cardinal role. In evolutionary terms, thermoresistance to global warming will likely occur in stepwise mutational changes, conforming to the molecular signatures, such that each "intermediate" fits a temporary niche through punctuated equilibrium, while maintaining protein functionality. Finally, the population response of different species to global warming may vary substantially, and, as such, some may evolve while others will undergo catastrophic mass extinction.

Long-lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia

The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response. Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an ~1.8 km2 area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance. Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region. We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.

Whole-genome resequencing reveals the pleistocene temporal dynamics of Branchiostoma belcheri and Branchiostoma floridae populations

Global climatic fluctuations governed the ancestral demographic histories of species and contributed to place the current population status into a more extensive ecological and evolutionary context. Genetic variations will leave unambiguous signatures in the patterns of intraspecific genetic variation in extant species since the genome of each individual is an imperfect mosaic of the ancestral genomes. Here, we report the genome sequences of 20 Branchiostoma individuals by whole-genome resequencing strategy. We detected over 140 million genomic variations for each Branchiostoma individual. In particular, we applied the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method to estimate the trajectories of changes in the effective population size (N e) of Branchiostoma population during the Pleistocene. We evaluated the threshold of sequencing depth for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC was ≥25×. The PSMC results highlight the role of historical global climatic fluctuations in the long-term population dynamics of Branchiostoma. The inferred ancestral N e of the Branchiostoma belcheri populations from Zhanjiang and Xiamen (China) seawaters was different in amplitude before the first (mutation rate = 3 × 10-9) or third glaciation (mutation rate = 9 × 10-9) of the Pleistocene, indicating that the two populations most probably started to evolve in isolation in their respective seas after the first or third glaciation of the Pleistocene. A pronounced population bottleneck coinciding with the last glacial maximum was observed in all Branchiostoma individuals, followed by a population expansion occurred during the late Pleistocene. Species that have experienced long-term declines may be especially vulnerable to recent anthropogenic activities. Recently, the industrial pollution and the exploitation of sea sand have destroyed the harmonious living environment of amphioxus species. In the future, we need to protect the habitat of Branchiostoma and make full use of these detected genetic variations to facilitate the functional study of Branchiostoma for adaptation to local environments.

SPLATCHE3: simulation of serial genetic data under spatially explicit evolutionary scenarios including long-distance dispersal

SUMMARY

SPLATCHE3 simulates genetic data under a variety of spatially explicit evolutionary scenarios, extending previous versions of the framework. The new capabilities include long-distance migration, spatially and temporally heterogeneous short-scale migrations, alternative hybridization models, simulation of serial samples of genetic data and a large variety of DNA mutation models. These implementations have been applied independently to various studies, but grouped together in the current version.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

SPLATCHE3 is written in C++ and is freely available for non-commercial use from the website http://www.splatche.com/splatche3. It includes console versions for Linux, MacOs and Windows and a user-friendly GUI for Windows, as well as detailed documentation and ready-to-use examples.

Influence of Paleolithic range contraction, admixture and long-distance dispersal on genetic gradients of modern humans in Asia

Cavalli-Sforza and coauthors originally explored the genetic variation of modern humans throughout the world and observed an overall east-west genetic gradient in Asia. However, the specific environmental and population genetics processes causing this gradient were not formally investigated and promoted discussion in recent studies. Here we studied the influence of diverse environmental and population genetics processes on Asian genetic gradients and identified which could have produced the observed gradient. To do so, we performed extensive spatially-explicit computer simulations of genetic data under the following scenarios: (a) variable levels of admixture between Paleolithic and Neolithic populations, (b) migration through long-distance dispersal (LDD), (c) Paleolithic range contraction induced by the last glacial maximum (LGM), and (d) Neolithic range expansions from one or two geographic origins (the Fertile Crescent and the Yangzi and Yellow River Basins). Next, we estimated genetic gradients from the simulated data and we found that they were sensible to the analysed processes, especially to the range contraction induced by LGM and to the number of Neolithic expansions. Some scenarios were compatible with the observed east-west genetic gradient, such as the Paleolithic expansion with a range contraction induced by the LGM or two Neolithic range expansions from both the east and the west. In general, LDD increased the variance of genetic gradients among simulations. We interpreted the obtained gradients as a consequence of both allele surfing caused by range expansions and isolation by distance along the vast east-west geographic axis of this continent.

Harnessing paleo-environmental modeling and genetic data to predict intraspecific genetic structure

Spatially explicit simulations of gene flow within complex landscapes could help forecast the responses of populations to global and anthropological changes. Simulating how past climate change shaped intraspecific genetic variation can provide a validation of models in anticipation of their use to predict future changes. We review simulation models that provide inferences on population genetic structure. Existing simulation models generally integrate complex demographic and genetic processes but are less focused on the landscape dynamics. In contrast to previous approaches integrating detailed demographic and genetic processes and only secondarily landscape dynamics, we present a model based on parsimonious biological mechanisms combining habitat suitability and cellular processes, applicable to complex landscapes. The simulation model takes as input (a) the species dispersal capacities as the main biological parameter, (b) the species habitat suitability, and (c) the landscape structure, modulating dispersal. Our model emphasizes the role of landscape features and their temporal dynamics in generating genetic differentiation among populations within species. We illustrate our model on caribou/reindeer populations sampled across the entire species distribution range in the Northern Hemisphere. We show that simulations over the past 21 kyr predict a population genetic structure that matches empirical data. This approach looking at the impact of historical landscape dynamics on intraspecific structure can be used to forecast population structure under climate change scenarios and evaluate how species range shifts might induce erosion of genetic variation within species.

The genetics of evolutionary radiations

With the realization that much of the biological diversity on Earth has been generated by discrete evolutionary radiations, there has been a rapid increase in research into the biotic (key innovations) and abiotic (key environments) circumstances in which such radiations took place. Here we focus on the potential importance of population genetic structure and trait genetic architecture in explaining radiations. We propose a verbal model describing the stages of an evolutionary radiation: first invading a suitable adaptive zone and expanding both spatially and ecologically through this zone; secondly, diverging genetically into numerous distinct populations; and, finally, speciating. There are numerous examples of the first stage; the difficulty, however, is explaining how genetic diversification can take place from the establishment of a, presumably, genetically depauperate population in a new adaptive zone. We explore the potential roles of epigenetics and transposable elements (TEs), of neutral process such as genetic drift in combination with trait genetic architecture, of gene flow limitation through isolation by distance (IBD), isolation by ecology and isolation by colonization, the possible role of intra-specific competition, and that of admixture and hybridization in increasing the genetic diversity of the founding populations. We show that many of the predictions of this model are corroborated. Most radiations occur in complex adaptive zones, which facilitate the establishment of many small populations exposed to genetic drift and divergent selection. We also show that many radiations (especially those resulting from long-distance dispersal) were established by polyploid lineages, and that many radiating lineages have small genome sizes. However, there are several other predictions which are not (yet) possible to test: that epigenetics has played a role in radiations, that radiations occur more frequently in clades with small gene flow distances, or that the ancestors of radiations had large fundamental niches. At least some of these may be testable in the future as more genome and epigenome data become available. The implication of this model is that many radiations may be hard polytomies because the genetic divergence leading to speciation happens within a very short time, and that the divergence history may be further obscured by hybridization. Furthermore, it suggests that only lineages with the appropriate genetic architecture will be able to radiate, and that such a radiation will happen in a meta-population environment. Understanding the genetic architecture of a lineage may be an essential part of accounting for why some lineages radiate, and some do not.

Effects of contemporary shifts of range margins on patterns of genetic structure and mating system in two coastal plant species

Species' geographical ranges are often restricted due to niche limitation resulting in geographical isolation and reduced population size at range margins. Under the "abundant center" paradigm, static marginal populations are thus expected to show higher genetic differentiation and lower genetic diversity than core populations. Low mate availability may also drive shifts toward higher propensity for selfing in geographically marginal populations. However, these predictions remain to be validated for contemporary range shifts occurring under current environmental change. This study is devoted to bridging this gap and assesses the spatial patterns of genetic structure and mating system across the geographical range of two coastal plant species characterized by contrasting contemporary range dynamics: the receding myrmecochorous Dune pansy (Viola tricolor subsp. curtisii) and the widespread expanding hydrochorous Rock samphire (Crithmum maritimum). Both species exhibited high propensity for selfing, with indications of inbreeding depression acting at early life stages. In Dune pansy, a biogeographical break was observed between core and marginal populations, with trailing-edge populations showing higher levels of genetic differentiation, reduced genetic diversity, and higher levels of selfing estimated through progeny arrays. In contrast, genetic structuring was weak in Rock samphire and no clear spatial trends were observed in genetic diversity nor in mating system, likely the result of efficient long-distance seed dispersal by sea-surface currents. Our study highlights that key species differences in life-history traits related to dispersal and/or mate limitation modify the expectations of genetic diversity loss and mating system shift in contemporary range-expanding populations, as compared with historical core populations.

Fragmented and isolated: limited gene flow coupled with weak isolation by environment in the paleoendemic giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum)

PREMISE

Patterns of genetic structure across a species' range reflect the long-term interplay between genetic drift, gene flow, and selection. Given the importance of gene flow in preventing the loss of diversity through genetic drift among spatially isolated populations, understanding the dynamics of gene flow and the factors that influence connectivity across a species' range is a major goal for conservation of genetic diversity. Here we present a detailed look at gene flow dynamics of Sequoiadendron giganteum, a paleoendemic tree species that will likely face numerous threats due to climate change.

METHODS

We used microsatellite markers to examine nineteen populations of S. giganteum for patterns of genetic structure and to estimate admixture and rates of gene flow between eight population pairs. Also, we used Generalized Dissimilarity Models to elucidate landscape factors that shape genetic differentiation among populations.

RESULTS

We found minimal gene flow between adjacent groves in the northern disjunct range. In most of the southern portion of the range, groves showed a signal of connectivity which degrades to isolation in the extreme south. Geographic distance was the most important predictor of genetic dissimilarity across the range, with environmental conditions related to precipitation and temperature explaining a small, but significant, portion of the genetic variance.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to their isolation and unique genetic composition, northern populations of S. giganteum should be considered a high conservation priority. In this region, we suggest germplasm conservation as well as restoration planting to enhance genetic diversity.

Ancient events and climate adaptive capacity shaped distinct chloroplast genetic structure in the oak lineages

BACKGROUND

Understanding the origin of genetic variation is the key to predict how species will respond to future climate change. The genus Quercus is a species-rich and ecologically diverse woody genus that dominates a wide range of forests and woodland communities of the Northern Hemisphere. Quercus thus offers a unique opportunity to investigate how adaptation to environmental changes has shaped the spatial genetic structure of closely related lineages. Furthermore, Quercus provides a deep insight into how tree species will respond to future climate change. This study investigated whether closely related Quercus lineages have similar spatial genetic structures and moreover, what roles have their geographic distribution, ecological tolerance, and historical environmental changes played in the similar or distinct genetic structures.

RESULTS

Despite their close relationships, the three main oak lineages (Quercus sections Cyclobalanopsis, Ilex, and Quercus) have different spatial genetic patterns and occupy different climatic niches. The lowest level and most homogeneous pattern of genetic diversity was found in section Cyclobalanopsis, which is restricted to warm and humid climates. The highest genetic diversity and strongest geographic genetic structure were found in section Ilex, which is due to their long-term isolation and strong local adaptation. The widespread section Quercus is distributed across the most heterogeneous range of environments; however, it exhibited moderate haplotype diversity. This is likely due to regional extinction during Quaternary climatic fluctuation in Europe and North America.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variations of sections Ilex and Quercus were significantly predicted by geographic and climate variations, while those of section Cyclobalanopsis were poorly predictable by geographic or climatic diversity. Apart from the different historical environmental changes experienced by different sections, variation of their ecological or climatic tolerances and physiological traits induced varying responses to similar environment changes, resulting in distinct spatial genetic patterns.

Landscape Features and Climatic Forces Shape the Genetic Structure and Evolutionary History of an Oak Species (Quercus chenii) in East China

Major topographic features facilitate intraspecific divergence through geographic isolation. This process may be enhanced by environmental isolation along climatic gradients, but also may be reduced by range shifts under rapid climatic changes. In this study, we examined how topography and climate have interacted over time and space to influence the genetic structure and evolutionary history of Quercus chenii, a deciduous oak species representative of the East China flora. Based on the nuclear microsatellite variation at 14 loci, we identified multiple genetic boundaries that were well associated with persistent landscape barriers of East China. Redundancy analysis indicated that both geography and climate explained similar amounts of intraspecific variation. Ecological differences along altitudinal gradients may have driven the divergence between highlands and lowlands. However, range expansions during the Last Interglacial as inferred from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) may have increased the genetic diversity and eliminated the differentiation of lowland populations via admixture. Chloroplast (cp) DNA analysis of four intergenic spacers (2,866 bp in length) identified a total of 18 haplotypes, 15 of which were private to a single population, probably a result of long-term isolation among multiple montane habitats. A time-calibrated phylogeny suggested that palaeoclimatic changes of the Miocene underlay the lineage divergence of three major clades. In combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM), we concluded that mountainous areas with higher climatic stability are more likely to be glacial refugia that preserved higher phylogenetic diversity, while plains and basins may have acted as dispersal corridors for the post-glacial south-to-north migration. Our findings provide compelling evidence that both topography and climate have shaped the pattern of genetic variation of Q. chenii. Mountains as barriers facilitated differentiation through both geographic and environmental isolation, whereas lowlands as corridors increased the population connectivity especially when the species experienced range expansions.

Signature of the Paleo-Course Changes in the São Francisco River as Source of Genetic Structure in Neotropical Pithecopus nordestinus (Phyllomedusinae, Anura) Treefrog

Historical processes that have interrupted gene flow between distinct evolutionary lineages have played a fundamental role in the evolution of the enormous diversity of species found in the Neotropical region. Numerous studies have discussed the role of geographic barriers and Pleistocene forest refugia in the diversification of the region's biodiversity. In the present study, we investigated the relative contribution of these different factors to the evolutionary history of Pithecopus nordestinus, a Neotropical tree frog, which is amply distributed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and adjacent areas of the Caatinga biome. We used an extensive sample and multilocus DNA sequences to provide an overview of the intraspecific genetic diversity of P. nordestinus, characterize historical diversification patterns, and identify possible phylogenetic splits. We tested different scenarios of diversification based on Pleistocene Refugia and river barrier models using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and ecological niche modeling (ENM). The phylogenetic approach indicate the occurrence of processes of phylogeographic divergence in both time and space, related to historical shifts in the course of the São Francisco River during Plio-Pleistocene period, resulting in two principal, highly divergent clades. The ABC model provided strong statistical support for this scenario, confirming the hypothesis that the São Francisco River acted as an effective geographical barrier during vicariant events in the evolutionary history of P. nordestinus. We believe that the climatic changes that occurred during the Pleistocene also played a secondary role in the genetic signatures identified, reinforcing the divergence of populations isolated by physical barriers. These findings reinforce the conclusion that the two models of diversification (geographic barriers and refugia) are not mutually exclusive in the Neotropical domain but may interact extensively during the diversification of species on a regional scale.

Gradual Distance Dispersal Shapes the Genetic Structure in an Alpine Grasshopper

The location of the high mountains of southern Europe has been crucial in the phylogeography of most European species, but how extrinsic (topography of sky islands) and intrinsic features (dispersal dynamics) have interacted to shape the genetic structure in alpine restricted species is still poorly known. Here we investigated the mechanisms explaining the colonisation of Cantabrian sky islands in an endemic flightless grasshopper. We scrutinised the maternal genetic variability and haplotype structure, and we evaluated the fitting of two migration models to understand the extant genetic structure in these populations: Long-distance dispersal (LDD) and gradual distance dispersal (GDD). We found that GDD fits the real data better than the LDD model, with an onset of the expansion matching postglacial expansions after the retreat of the ice sheets. Our findings suggest a scenario with small carrying capacity, migration rates, and population growth rates, being compatible with a slow dispersal process. The gradual expansion process along the Cantabrian sky islands found here seems to be conditioned by the suitability of habitats and the presence of alpine corridors. Our findings shed light on our understanding about how organisms which have adapted to live in alpine habitats with limited dispersal abilities have faced new and suitable environmental conditions.

Genetic Population Structure and Allele Surfing During Range Expansion in Dynamic Habitats

Expanding populations may loss genetic diversity because sequential founder events throughout a wave of demographic expansion may cause "allele surfing", as the alleles of founder individuals may propagate rapidly through space. The spatial components of allele surfing have been studied by geneticists, but have never been investigate on dynamic and shifting habitats. Here we used an individual-based-model (IBM) to study how interactions between different habitat restoration scenarios and biological characteristics (dispersal capacity) affect the spatial patterns of the genetic structure of a population during demographic expansion. We found that both habitat dynamics and dispersal capacity, as well as their interaction, were the drivers of emergent pattern of genetic diversity and allele surfing. Specifically, allele surfing is more common when a species with low dispersal capacity colonizes a large geographic area with slow restoration (low carrying capacity). Despite this, we showed that allele surfing can be reduced, or even avoided, by dispersal management through suitable habitat restoration. Thus, investigating how colonization generates a spatial variation in genetic diversity, and which parameters control the emergent genetic pattern, are essential steps to planning assisted gene flow, which is fundamental for an effective planning of habitat restoration.

Species delimitation in the East Asian species of the relict tree genus Zelkova (Ulmaceae): A complex history of diversification and admixture among species

Zelkova species, trees of the elm family (Ulmaceae), are part of the Cenozoic relict flora. In western Eurasia, the genus comprises three species that are restricted to disjunct areas (Z. sicula on Sicily, Z. abelicea on Crete and Z. carpinifolia in Transcaucasia). The situation is different in East Asia, where three species (Z. serrata, Z. schneideriana and Z. sinica) have at least partly overlapping distributions. The phylogenetic and phylogeographic status of these East Asian species is still not well understood, mainly since all previous studies used almost exclusively plant material collected in botanical gardens and were based on very small numbers of individuals. Our study is the first based on 33 natural populations covering all important areas with Zelkova species in the Sino-Japanese Floristic Region. Chloroplast and microsatellite markers were used, and Bayesian analyses were run for both types of markers. East Asian Zelkova species cluster into two groups that partially overlap when comparing the two types of markers. For chloroplast markers, the two groups coincide with all Japanese, some Korean and northern Chinese Z. serrata in one group and all other individuals in the other group, regardless of whether they are attributed to Z. serrata, Z. sinica or Z. schneideriana from Korea, mainland China and Taiwan. At the nuclear level, however, the clustering clearly groups all the Z. serrata individuals together, regardless of whether they are from Japan, Korea or China, and the two other species in a second group. This complex genetic pattern in East Asian Zelkova species is most likely due to a combination of ancient diversification and speciation events and more recent hybridization during the last glacial/interglacial retractions and recolonizations. One of the surprising results of our study concerns the populations from Taiwan, which are genetically similar to Z. schneideriana. Thus, their assignation to a separate taxon (Z. tarokoensis) or to a variety of Z. serrata (Z. serrata var. tarokoensis), as currently reported in all local and national floras, might be in need of revision. Furthermore, our results indicate that the East Asian species are more closely related to Z. carpinifolia than to any other Western European species. Haplotypes of Z. sicula and Z. abelicea (Mediterranean region) as well as those of Z. sinica and Z. schneideriana (East Asia) seem to have diversified more recently. The most ancient haplotypes are found among the western Eurasian Z. carpinifolia and the East Asian Z. serrata. This result is in agreement with the carpinifolia and serrata-like morphotypes commonly found in the fossil record.

Unravelling the genetic differentiation among varieties of the Neotropical savanna tree Hancornia speciosa Gomes

Background and Aims

Spatial distribution of species genetic diversity is often driven by geographical distance (isolation by distance) or environmental conditions (isolation by environment), especially under climate change scenarios such as Quaternary glaciations. Here, we used coalescent analyses coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM), spatially explicit quantile regression analyses and the multiple matrix regression with randomization (MMRR) approach to unravel the patterns of genetic differentiation in the widely distributed Neotropical savanna tree, Hancornia speciosa (Apocynaceae). Due to its high morphological differentiation, the species was originally classified into six botanical varieties by Monachino, and has recently been recognized as only two varieties by Flora do Brasil 2020. Thus, H. speciosa is a good biological model for learning about evolution of phenotypic plasticity under genetic and ecological effects, and predicting their responses to changing environmental conditions.

Methods

We sampled 28 populations (777 individuals) of Monachino's four varieties of H. speciosa and used seven microsatellite loci to genotype them.

Key Results

Bayesian clustering showed five distinct genetic groups (K = 5) with high admixture among Monachino's varieties, mainly among populations in the central area of the species geographical range. Genetic differentiation among Monachino's varieties was lower than the genetic differentiation among populations within varieties, with higher within-population inbreeding. A high historical connectivity among populations of the central Cerrado shown by coalescent analyses may explain the high admixture among varieties. In addition, areas of higher climatic suitability also presented higher genetic diversity in such a way that the wide historical refugium across central Brazil might have promoted the long-term connectivity among populations. Yet, FST was significantly related to geographic distances, but not to environmental distances, and coalescent analyses and ENM predicted a demographical scenario of quasi-stability through time.

Conclusions

Our findings show that demographical history and isolation by distance, but not isolation by environment, drove genetic differentiation of populations. Finally, the genetic clusters do not support the two recently recognized botanical varieties of H. speciosa, but partially support Monachino's classification at least for the four sampled varieties, similar to morphological variation.

Diversification of the widespread neotropical frog Physalaemus cuvieri in response to Neogene-Quaternary geological events and climate dynamics

Here we reconstructed the demographical history and the dispersal dynamics of Physalemus cuvieri through the Neogene-Quaternary periods by coupling DNA regions with different mutation rates, ecological niche modelling, reconstruction of spatio-temporal lineage dispersal and coalescent simulations. Still, to test alternative diversification scenarios we used approximate Bayesian computation. Molecular phylogenetic analysis recovered four deep and strongly supported clades, which we interpret as population lineages. The ancestral location reconstruction placed the root in southcentral Amazonia, and the dispersal events indicate that spatial displacement was widespread early in the diversification of this species. The demographical scenario of "Multiple Refugia" with recent lineage admixture was the most likely hypothesis to predict the observed genetic parameters of P. cuvieri. Our results revealed that Neogene orogenic events might have played a prominent role in the early diversification of P. cuvieri. The species shows deep divergences with strong regional population structure, despite its widespread distribution. Final uplift of the central Brazilian Plateau and formation of the river basins in Central South America played an important role in the origin, diversification and the maintenance of P. cuvieri lineages.

Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web

A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico's Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo's insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

Selecting among Alternative Scenarios of Human Evolution by Simulated Genetic Gradients

Selecting among alternative scenarios of human evolution is nowadays a common methodology to investigate the history of our species. This strategy is usually based on computer simulations of genetic data under different evolutionary scenarios, followed by a fitting of the simulated data with the real data. A recent trend in the investigation of ancestral evolutionary processes of modern humans is the application of genetic gradients as a measure of fitting, since evolutionary processes such as range expansions, range contractions, and population admixture (among others) can lead to different genetic gradients. In addition, this strategy allows the analysis of the genetic causes of the observed genetic gradients. Here, we review recent findings on the selection among alternative scenarios of human evolution based on simulated genetic gradients, including pros and cons. First, we describe common methodologies to simulate genetic gradients and apply them to select among alternative scenarios of human evolution. Next, we review previous studies on the influence of range expansions, population admixture, last glacial period, and migration with long-distance dispersal on genetic gradients for some regions of the world. Finally, we discuss this analytical approach, including technical limitations, required improvements, and advice. Although here we focus on human evolution, this approach could be extended to study other species.

Examining the interglacial high-elevation refugia scenario in East Asian subtropical mountain systems with the frog species Leptobrachium liui

The effects of Quaternary climatic oscillations on the distributions of organisms in different parts of the world are not equally well understood, limiting the ability to understand the determinants of biodiversity. Compared with the mountain regions in southern Europe and southwestern North America, such effects on high-elevation species in the East Asian subtropical mountain systems located in southern and southeastern China have seldom been addressed. In this study, using Leptobrachium liui (Megophryidae), we made one of the earliest attempts to examine the interglacial high-elevation refugia scenario in these Asian mountains. Based on our current understanding of the study system, we formulated a hypothesis that these frogs of western origin were distributed more widely and continuously during glacial phases, allowing eastward dispersal, and that they are currently isolated in interglacial refugia at higher elevations. Microsatellite data and mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data were obtained with extensive sampling followed by the synthesis of phylogeographic and population genetic analyses and modeling of the species distribution. The analyses revealed a sequential eastward divergence of microsatellite clusters and gene lineages accompanied by a decline in genetic diversity. Molecular dating estimates revealed divergence events in the Pleistocene, and a reduction in local populations was inferred to have occurred at a time comparable to the end of the last glacial. Strong genetic isolation by distance reflecting a more continuous historical distribution was detected. Furthermore, environmental niche models inferred a wide planar distribution during the last glacial maximum, providing further support for the hypothesis.

The road to evolutionary success: insights from the demographic history of an Amazonian palm

Evolutionary success, as demonstrated by high abundance and a wide geographical range, is related to genetic variation and historical demography. Here we assess how climatic change during the Quaternary influenced the demography and distribution of the Neotropical swamp palm Mauritia flexuosa. Using microsatellite loci and coalescent analyses we examined how demographical dynamics affected genetic diversity, effective population size and connectivity through time and space. Mauritia flexuosa presents significant genetic differentiation between the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes and among different river basins. Amazonian lineages are ancient compared to lineages from the Cerrado, a pattern corroborated using the fossil pollen record, where the species was absent from the Cerrado during the cold and dry periods of the last glacial cycles, then returned during the wet, interglacial phases. Coalescent simulations show that the pattern of observed genetic diversity for M. flexuosa is most likely due to a range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to multiple refugia and resulting in high differentiation between Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Isolation-by-distance and by-environment also shaped the distribution and evolutionary success of M. flexuosa. Our study provides new insights into the historical factors that affected geographical distribution and structure genetic diversity, contributing to long-term evolutionary success.