Mathematical model for the natural history of human papillomavirus infection and cervical carcinogenesis

Molecular Testing as Triage in Cervical Cancer Screening: Economic Evaluation Using Headroom Analysis

Background: Molecular triage testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV)-based cervical cancer screening can be used in self-sampling, potentially reducing unnecessary colposcopies and increasing attendance. However, its commercial value remains underexplored. This study used headroom analysis to estimate the maximum reimbursable price (MRP) at which molecular testing would be cost-effective for the triage of hrHPV-positive women, compared with cytology. Methods: A validated microsimulation Markov model for the Dutch cervical cancer screening program evaluated three triage scenarios: (1) cytology (base scenario), (2) molecular testing in self-samples only (scenario I), and (3) molecular testing on self- and GP-collected samples (scenario II). Test sensitivity and specificity ranged from 65% to 95%, with a threshold of EUR 20,000 per life-year gained. Results: In scenario I, MRPs ranged from EUR 244 (85% sensitivity, 75% specificity) to EUR 435 (95% sensitivity, 95% specificity). In scenario II, molecular testing was cost-effective across all parameters, with MRPs from EUR 162 (65% sensitivity, 65% specificity) to EUR 624 (95% sensitivity, 95% specificity). Increasing the sensitivity did not significantly affect life-years gained (due to the low mortality of cervical cancer in the Netherlands), but increased specificity did reduce the number of unnecessary colposcopies. Conclusions: Enhancing the specificity of molecular triage testing will improve its commercial value by reducing colposcopy referrals without affecting the number of life-years gained.

The effect of hrHPV prevalence on cervical cancer screening strategies: a cost-effectiveness study of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is the second most prominent cancer among women in Bangladesh, which is mainly caused by persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV). This study aims to evaluate impact of hrHPV prevalence on cost-effectiveness of screening with self-sampling hrHPV testing versus visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA) for cervical cancer screening in low- and middle-income countries with Bangladesh as an example.

METHODS

A micro-simulation Markov model was developed from a health system perspective in Bangladesh to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening with self-sampling hrHPV testing followed by VIA and VIA as primary screening method followed by colposcopy. We compared these strategies in optimal (70%) and realistic (8.7%) uptake scenarios, considering different hrHPV prevalence rates. Key indicators for cost-effectiveness were number of prevented cervical cancers cases and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

The number of cervical cancers cases prevented by screening and cost-effectiveness of screening strategies increased as hrHPV prevalence increased. In both optimal and realistic uptake scenarios, hrHPV test + VIA strategy prevented more cancers than VIA + colposcopy strategy in most instances. Regardless of the uptake, both screening strategies were cost-effective compared to no screening within a hrHPV prevalence range of 2-30%, and the hrHPV test-based strategy was cost-effective compared with VIA-based strategy. When the price of hrHPV test was estimated 50% lower (10 USD), the hrHPV test-based strategy gained more life years at nearly the same cost as the VIA-based strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that the hrHPV test + VIA strategy is cost-effective both compared to no screening and VIA + colposcopy screening strategy under the optimal (70%) and realistic (8.7%) uptake scenarios, with greater cost-effectiveness at higher hrHPV prevalence levels. While VIA-based strategy is cheaper, self-sampling hrHPV test-based strategy offers greater health benefits. Implementing hrHPV testing in national screening programs at lower hrHPV test prices is crucial for promoting health equity and accelerating cervical cancer elimination worldwide. In resource-constrained settings, screening with hrHPV testing should initially target high-prevalence populations.

What cancers explain the growing rural-urban gap in human papillomavirus-associated cancer incidence?

PURPOSE

Human papillomavirus (HPV) can cause cancers of the genital system, anus/rectum, and oropharynx. Prior research showed that HPV-associated cancer incidence was rising faster in nonmetro than in metro populations. Our study identified which cancers contributed to the widening disparity.

METHODS

Representing ∼93% of all cancers in the United States, we analyzed data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (2000-2019). Restricting the analysis to HPV-associated cancers, we compared 5-year average age-adjusted incidence rates (per 100,000 population) for nonmetropolitan (Rural-Urban Continuum Codes 4-9) and metropolitan populations, by sex and cancer site. To quantify the rural-urban gap, we calculated rate ratios and absolute differences of incidence trends.

RESULTS

Although incidence was similar in 2000-2004 (nonmetropolitan = 9.9; metropolitan = 9.9), incidence in 2015-2019 was significantly higher in nonmetropolitan (12.3) than metropolitan (11.1) populations. The gap was widest for cervical cancers (females) in 2015-2019 (1.0 case per 100,000) but grew the most since 2000-2004 in oropharyngeal cancers among males (+1.1 cases per 100,000). The nonmetropolitan rate ratios for females (RR = 1.15, 95% C.I. = 1.13, 1.17) and males (RR = 1.07, 95% C.I. = 1.05, 1.09) in 2015-2019 were higher than the respective RRs for all other years. Since 2000, the nonmetropolitan disparity has significantly grown for anal and cervical cancers in females, and oropharyngeal cancers in both sexes.

DISCUSSION

Although preventable, nonmetropolitan Americans have shouldered a growing burden of HPV-associated cancers. To address these cervical, anal, and oropharyngeal cancer disparities, it is imperative that HPV vaccination programs are effectively implemented at scale.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in Tunisia: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to assess the cost utility of the implementation of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programme in Tunisia in addition to the current cytology screening strategy. This study is very important to guide health policy decision-makers and to help them allocate their scarce healthcare resources.

DESIGN

We used a previously described Markov model on the Online Cost Effectiveness Analysis tool programmed with R Software. The Markov cohort model was used to simulate the natural history of HPV infection and cervical cancer for a cohort of 100 000 females aged from 10 to 84 years. The model was calibrated with Tunisian parameters to calculate the long-term health benefits and costs of different cervical cancer preventive strategies in Tunisia.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the implementation of HPV vaccination to the current cytology screening strategy to fight against cervical cancer. The ICER was calculated per life-years saved and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, expressed in 2020 US$. Thresholds were fixed at one to three times the gross domestic product (GDP). One-way sensitivity analyses were carried out concerning the coverage rate of the cytology screening and vaccination as well as for the vaccination cost and doses.

RESULTS

Compared with screening alone, the combined strategy predicted an ICER of US$1920.8 year of life saved and US$2239.3/QALY which is still lower than the GDP per capita of Tunisia in 2020 (US$3319). Sensitivity analysis showed that the cost-effectiveness of adding vaccination to the existing screening programme did not exceed the GDP per capita by varying the cost per dose upwards to US$45 (ICER would be US$2910/QALY) and vaccination coverage up to 100% (ICER of US$3245/QALY). However, the combined strategy exceeds the GDP per capita threshold when the cytological screening coverage rises to 70%, causing the ICER to rise to US$4787/QALY.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that compared with screening alone, the implementation of HPV vaccination in addition to the current cytology screening programme in Tunisia would be considered cost-effective on the basis of the threshold GDP per capita. Improvement of the current screening programme itself also remains important and provides further potential to achieve optimal cervical cancer prevention strategies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of single-dose or 2-dose of bivalent, quadrivalent, or nonavalent HPV vaccine in a low/middle-income country setting

OBJECTIVE

To compare the health impact and economic benefits among individuals who did not receive the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine to those who received a single dose, or 2 doses. The comparison was stratified by 4 types of vaccine in conjunction with primary HPV screening in a low/middle-income country setting.

METHODS

A Markov model was employed to simulate HPV infection and cervical cancer in a cohort of 100,000 12-year-old girls free of HPV. The study scrutinized 9 strategies: 1 dose and 2 doses of 2vHPV (Cervarix®), 2vHPV (Cecolin®), 4vHPV (Gardasil®), 9vHPV vaccine (Gardasil9®), and no vaccination. The primary outcome measure was the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of each strategy. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated over a lifetime horizon, accompanied by sensitivity analyses conducted.

RESULTS

All vaccination programs yielded 41,298-71,057 QALYs gained accompanied by cost savings of 14,914,186-19,821,655 USD compared to no vaccination. Administering 2 doses of 9vHPV vaccine emerged as the most cost-effective strategy, boasting 406 USD/QALY, within a lower willingness to pay threshold. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated an 80% probability of the cost-effectiveness of the 2 doses of 9vHPV vaccine regimen. Furthermore, uncertainty around the costs of vaccination and vaccine efficacy exerted the most substantial influence on the cost-effectiveness findings.

CONCLUSION

Oping for 2 doses of 9vHPV vaccine in conjunction with a primary HPV screening represents the most cost-effective option for implementing a school-based HPV vaccination program targeting 12-year-old girls in Thailand. Such findings provide valuable insights for policymakers in the realm of cervical cancer prevention.

Significance of negative cervical cytology and positive HPV in the diagnosis of cervical lesions by colposcopy

Objective

The aim of this study was to investigate the significance of colposcopy in diagnosing cervical lesions when negative cervical cytology is combined with positive human papillomavirus (HPV).

Methods

Overall, 370 patients with cervical epithelial lesions who had negative cervical fluid-based cytology combined with positive HPV results were selected and analysed for severity of cervical lesions and HPV distribution.

Results

Among the patients with cervical lesions, 242 had a single HPV infection, and 128 cases had multiple infections. No significant difference was found between HPV single infection and multiple infections in both groups of patients with cervical lesions (P > 0.05). Furthermore, 137 had non-HPV 16 and 18, accounting for 37.30% of all the patients with cervical lesions. Among them, HPV 52, 58, and 33 infections were the most common at 38.69, 30.66 and 29.20%, respectively - significantly higher than other high-risk HPV types (P < 0.05).

Conclusion

High-risk HPV testing is crucial in patients with negative cervical fluid-based cytology combined with positive HPV results. Patients with HPV 16 and 18 and those with simple HPV 52, 58, and 33 infections should undergo timely colposcopy.

Trends of cervical tumours amongst women from perspectives of demographic, socioeconomic and geographic indicators: retrospective ecological study in Czechia

Introduction

For many infectious diseases, women are at higher risk and have a more severe disease course than men for many reasons, including biological differences, social inequalities, and restrictive cultural norms. The study focuses on infections with human papillomaviruses (HPV) in the form of cervical cancer as a gender-specific disease. The main goal is to evaluate cervical tumour incidence trends in the Czech female population in the HPV vaccination period 2012-2020 in relation to selected demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic indicators.

Methods

This is a retrospective ecological study. Data from publicly available databases about the incidence and mortality of cervical tumours (C53 Malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri, D06 Carcinoma in situ of cervix uteri according to ICD 10) and HPV vaccination rate were analysed and compared with demographic, socioeconomic and territorial data. Associations were searched using correlation analysis.

Results

There was a decreasing trend in the incidence of cervical cancer in the observed period. Regarding cervical tumours (C53, D06) and malignant neoplasm of cervix uteri incidence (C53), the decrease was approximately 11 and 20%, respectively. Differences between regions were observed in incidences and vaccination rates. Based on correlation analysis, indicators connected with urban/rural aspects, such as a share of urban population and population density, were statistically significant. The indicators related to higher cervical cancer incidence are the high unemployment rate of women, the high number of divorces, the high number of abortions, the high share of the urban population, the high number of students, and the high number of women with only primary education. On the other hand, the indicators related to lower cervical cancer incidence are the high gross domestic product (GDP), the high average gross monthly wage per employee, the high employment rate of women, the higher average age of mothers at birth, and the high number of women with tertiary education.

Conclusion

Results underline the problem of economically disadvantaged regions and families. Increasing vaccination rates, promoting regular screening for cervical cancer, and supporting awareness in the population, especially in regions with higher incidence rates, should be priorities for public health efforts.

Human Papillomavirus Carcinogenicity and the Need of New Perspectives: Thoughts from a Retrospective Analysis on Human Papillomavirus Outcomes Conducted at the Hospital University of Bari, Apulia, Italy, between 2011 and 2022

BACKGROUND

The current manuscript's aim was to determine the human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype-specific prevalence and distribution among individuals, males, and females, of different ages in the region of Apulia, Italy, highlighting the possible variables involved in the carcinogenicity mechanism. In addition, we proposed two hypothetical models of HPV's molecular dynamics, intending to clarify the impact of prevention and therapeutic strategies, explicitly modeled by recent survey data.

METHODS

We presented clinical data from 9647 participants tested for either high-risk (HR) or low-risk (LR) HPV at the affiliated Bari Policlinic University Hospital of Bari from 2011 to 2022. HPV DNA detection was performed using nested-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and multiplex real-time PCR assay. Statistical analysis showed significant associations for all genders and ages and both HR- and LR-HPV types. A major number of significant pairwise associations were detected for the higher-risk types and females and lower-risk types and males.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of HPV was 50.5% (n-4.869) vs. 49.5% (n-4.778) of the study population, of which 74.4% (n-3621) were found to be HPV high-risk (HR-HPV) genotypes and 57.7% (n-2.807) low-risk HPV (LR-HPV) genotypes, of which males were 58% and females 49%; the three most prevalent HR-HPV genotypes were HPV 53 (n707-15%), 16 (n704-14%), and 31 (n589-12%), and for LR-HPV, they were 42 (19%), 6 (16%), and 54 (13%); 56% of patients screened for HPV were ≤ 30 years old, 53% were between 31 and 40 years old, 46% were 41-50 and 51-60 years old, and finally, 44% of subjects were >60 years old.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provided comprehensive epidemiological data on HPV prevalence and genotype distribution among 9647 participants, which could serve as a significant reference for clinical practice, and it implied the necessity for more effective screening methods for HPV carcinogenesis covering the use of more specific molecular investigations. Although this is a predominantly descriptive and epidemiological study, the data obtained offer not only a fairly unique trend compared to other studies of different realities and latitudes but also lead us to focus on the HPV infection within two groups of young people and adults and hypothesize the possible involvement of dysbiosis, stem cells, and the retrotransposition mechanism.

Fractional view analysis of sexual transmitted human papilloma virus infection for public health

The infection of human papilloma virus (HPV) poses a global public health challenge, particularly in regions with limited access to health care and preventive measures, contributing to health disparities and increased disease burden. In this research work, we present a new model to explore the transmission dynamics of HPV infection, incorporating the impact of vaccination through the Atangana-Baleanu derivative. We establish the positivity and uniqueness of the solution for the proposed model HPV infection. The threshold parameter is determined through the next-generation matrix method, symbolized by [Formula: see text]. Moreover, we investigate the local asymptotic stability of the infection-free steady-state of the system. The existence of the solutions of the recommended model is determined through fixed-point theory. A numerical scheme is presented to visualize the dynamical behavior of the system with variation of input factors. We have shown the impact of input parameters on the dynamics of the system through numerical simulations. The findings of our investigation delineated the principal parameters exerting significant influence for the control and prevention of HPV infection.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adolescent girls in Japan: A comparison of 2-valent, 4-valent, and 9-valent HPV vaccines with consideration of cross-protection

OBJECTIVE

In April 2023, the Japanese Health Ministry panel approved the inclusion of the 9-valent human papillomavirus (9vHPV) vaccine in the National Immunization Program, alongside the 2-valent (2vHPV) and 4-valent HPV (4vHPV) vaccines. In response to this, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of these three vaccines for routine immunization of girls aged 12-16 in Japan, considering the cross-protection of 2vHPV and 4vHPV vaccines.

METHODS

We constructed an age-structured mathematical model for HPV transmission, aiming to quantify the economic and epidemiological effects of various HPV vaccination strategies over a 70-year period in Japan. We determined incremental costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each strategy, applying a 3% annual discount. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the uncertainty of our model results, with all evaluations done in 2023.

RESULTS

Our projections indicate that the HPV vaccination program in Japan will significantly reduce the incidence of HPV-related diseases. All HPV vaccination strategies, using the 2vHPV, 4vHPV, and 9vHPV vaccines, were found to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of ¥971,447/QALY, ¥1,237,297/QALY, and ¥742,084/QALY, respectively. Direct comparisons between vaccines demonstrated that the 9vHPV vaccination was more cost-effective than the 2vHPV vaccination, whereas 4vHPV vaccination was dominated by 2vHPV vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study validates the cost-effectiveness of implementing the 9vHPV vaccine as the primary option over the 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccine for girls in Japan. These findings underscore the need to improve the acceptance rate and coverage of HPV vaccinations in the country.

Characteristics of vaginal microbiota in various cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Precancerous lesions of cervical cancer exhibit characteristics indicative of natural progression. To prevent overtreatment of patients whose cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) in regression and to predict the onset of invasive cervical cancer at an early stage, we've identified the vaginal microbiome as a potential key factor, which is associated with both HPV infection and the various cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. This study aims to investigate the microbiome characteristics of patients with various cervical intraepithelial neoplasia.

METHODS

Utilizing high-throughput 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) sequencing technology, a description of the characteristics and community composition of Vaginal Microbiota (VMB) was conducted among 692 Chinese women infected with the High-risk Human Papillomavirus (HR-HPV).

RESULTS

As the grade of the lesions increased, the proportions of Lactobacillus and Pseudomonas demonstrated a significant declining trend, while the proportions of Gardnerella, Dialister, and Prevotella significantly increased. The diversity of the VMB was more significant in high-grade CIN. Furthermore, KEGG pathway enrichment analysis indicates that high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia can inhibit various pathways, including those of phosphotransferase system, transcription factors, Fructose and mannose metabolism, amino sugar and nucleotide sugar metabolism, and galactose metabolism, which may contribute to the development of early cervical cancer symptoms.

CONCLUSION

Patients with CIN exhibit a distinct vaginal microbial profile characterized by a decrease in Lactobacillus and Pseudomonas, and an increase in Gardnerella, Prevotella, and Dialister. The proliferation and diminution of these two types of microbial communities are interrelated, suggesting a mutual restraint and balance among them. Disruption of this regulatory balance could potentially lead to the onset of cervical lesions and carcinogenesis. Retrospectively registered: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Beijing Chaoyang Hospital affiliated with the Capital Medical University (NO.2023-S-415).

Impact of Dietary Quality on Genital Oncogenic Human Papillomavirus Infection in Women

BACKGROUND

Most cervical cancers are directly linked to oncogenic or high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection. This study evaluates associations between diet quality and genital HPV infection in women.

METHODS

This study included 10 543 women from the 2003-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The outcome was the genital HPV infection status (HPV-negative, low-risk [LR] HPV, and HR-HPV). Dietary quality was evaluated using the Healthy Eating Index (HEI), in which a higher score indicates a better diet quality.

RESULTS

Women who did not consume total fruits (15.8%), whole fruits (27.5%), or green vegetables and beans (43%) had a significantly higher risk of HR-HPV infection than women who complied with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (HR-HPV odds ratio = 1.76, 1.63, and 1.48 for a HEI score of 0 vs 5, respectively) after adjusting confounding factors. Similar results of these food components on LR-HPV infection were found. In addition, intake of whole grains and dairy was inversely associated with LR-HPV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that women who did not eat fruits, dark-green vegetables, and beans had a higher risk of genital HR-HPV infection. Intake of these food components is suggested for women to prevent HPV carcinogenesis.

Calibration and Validation of the Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) Microsimulation Model Using Deep Neural Networks

OBJECTIVES

Machine learning (ML)-based emulators improve the calibration of decision-analytical models, but their performance in complex microsimulation models is yet to be determined.

METHODS

We demonstrated the use of an ML-based emulator with the Colorectal Cancer (CRC)-Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model, which includes 23 unknown natural history input parameters to replicate the CRC epidemiology in the United States. We first generated 15,000 input combinations and ran the CRC-AIM model to evaluate CRC incidence, adenoma size distribution, and the percentage of small adenoma detected by colonoscopy. We then used this data set to train several ML algorithms, including deep neural network (DNN), random forest, and several gradient boosting variants (i.e., XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost) and compared their performance. We evaluated 10 million potential input combinations using the selected emulator and examined input combinations that best estimated observed calibration targets. Furthermore, we cross-validated outcomes generated by the CRC-AIM model with those made by CISNET models. The calibrated CRC-AIM model was externally validated using the United Kingdom Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening Trial (UKFSST).

RESULTS

The DNN with proper preprocessing outperformed other tested ML algorithms and successfully predicted all 8 outcomes for different input combinations. It took 473 s for the trained DNN to predict outcomes for 10 million inputs, which would have required 190 CPU-years without our DNN. The overall calibration process took 104 CPU-days, which included building the data set, training, selecting, and hyperparameter tuning of the ML algorithms. While 7 input combinations had acceptable fit to the targets, a combination that best fits all outcomes was selected as the best vector. Almost all of the predictions made by the best vector laid within those from the CISNET models, demonstrating CRC-AIM's cross-model validity. Similarly, CRC-AIM accurately predicted the hazard ratios of CRC incidence and mortality as reported by UKFSST, demonstrating its external validity. Examination of the impact of calibration targets suggested that the selection of the calibration target had a substantial impact on model outcomes in terms of life-year gains with screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Emulators such as a DNN that is meticulously selected and trained can substantially reduce the computational burden of calibrating complex microsimulation models.

HIGHLIGHTS

Calibrating a microsimulation model, a process to find unobservable parameters so that the model fits observed data, is computationally complex.We used a deep neural network model, a popular machine learning algorithm, to calibrate the Colorectal Cancer Adenoma Incidence and Mortality (CRC-AIM) model.We demonstrated that our approach provides an efficient and accurate method to significantly speed up calibration in microsimulation models.The calibration process successfully provided cross-model validation of CRC-AIM against 3 established CISNET models and also externally validated against a randomized controlled trial.

Impact of HPV-16 Lineages Infection in Response to Radio-Chemotherapy in Cervical Cancer

BACKGROUND

HPV is strongly related to cervical cancer. HPV lineages can contribute to a response to cervical cancer therapy. The aim of this research was to estimate the frequency of human papillomavirus (HPV)-16 lineages in specimens of cervical cancer, relate the pathological factors in these variants, and assess their response to treatment with radical chemoradiotherapy.

METHODS

Samples of cervical cancer were collected from women who were referred to a reference cancer hospital to test the presence of human papillomavirus-type DNA. The standard protocol of this service consisted of cisplatin-based chemotherapy of 40 mg/m², plus conventional pelvic irradiation in doses of 45-50.4 Gy and high dose-rate brachytherapy of 28-30 Gy to Point A. The response to chemotherapy was evaluated after three months in patients with the HPV-16 lineage.

RESULTS

HPV DNA was detected in 104 (88.1%) of the 118 patients. HPV-16 was present in 63 patients (53%). Lineages of HPV-16 were identified in 57 patients and comprised 33 instances of (57.8%) lineage A, 2 instances of lineage B (3.5%), 2 instances of lineage C (3.5%), and 20 instances of (35.0%) lineage D. The median age of the patients was 48.4 years (range 25-85 years). Squamous cell carcinoma was detected 48 times (84.2%). Adenocarcinoma was more likely to occur in lineage D, as three of the four cases occurred in this lineage. A total of 11 patients with the HPV-16 variant were treated with chemoradiotherapy. After three months, it was observed that nine of the eleven patients (81.8%) achieved a complete response, five with the lineage A type, two with the lineage C type, and two with the lineage D type. The two cases of partial response and disease progression, one of each, occurred in lineage A.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to the small number of patients and HPV variants, we noticed a better response in patients with the HPV-16 lineage A. Increasing the sample size could be helpful to better assess the impact of HPV variants on cervical cancer treatment.

Clinical Performance of Cobas 6800 for the Detection of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus in Urine Samples

Testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) as part of primary cervical cancer screening has become more common recently. The Cobas 6800, an FDA-approved cervical screening platform, detects 14 high-risk HPVs, including HPV16 and HPV18. However, this test is limited to only women, which leads to low screening rates in trans men and other non-binary people. The cervical screening of trans men and other genders, especially those lying on the female-to-male spectrum, is equally important. Furthermore, cisgender males, particularly homosexuals, are also prone to chronic HPV infections and serve as HPV carriers, transmitting it to women and other men through sexual contact. Another limitation of the test is its invasive specimen collection, which induces discomfort and genital dysphoria. Therefore, there is a need for an innovative, less invasive method that would allow the sampling process to be more comfortable. In this study, we assess the performance of the Cobas 6800 for high-risk HPV detection in urine samples spiked with HPV16, HPV18, and HPV68. The limit of detection (LOD) was calculated using a dilution series (1.25-10,000 copies/mL) over a course of three days. Furthermore, the clinical validation was performed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The limit of detection ranged from 50-1000 copies/mL depending upon the genotype. Moreover, the urine test demonstrated a high clinical sensitivity of 93%, 94%, and 90% for HPV16, HPV18, and HPV68, with 100% specificity. The overall percent agreement was calculated to be 95% for both HPV16 and HPV18, and 93% for HPV68. The high concordance, reproducibility, and clinical performance of the current assay suggest that the urine-based HPV test fulfills the requirements for its use in primary cervical screening. Moreover, it has the potential to be used for mass screening to not only identify high-risk individuals, but also to monitor vaccine effectiveness.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of miRNAs for the detection of cervical cancer

Aim: This study aimed to critically appraise the evidence of the diagnostic effectiveness of miRNAs for the detection of cervical cancer. Methods & materials: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed, searching PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science. An umbrella meta-analysis of meta-analyses of individual biomarkers was performed. A Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) assessment of evidence was also performed. Results: A total of 52 miRNAs were included. Umbrella meta-analysis revealed significant heterogeneity in terms of sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), positive predictive value and/or negative predictive value. Umbrella effects were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.73-0.78), 0.78 (95% CI: 0.75-0.81), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.75-0.80), 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.79) and 0.76 (95% CI: 0.74-0.79), respectively. Conclusion: Moderate quality evidence suggested miR199a-5p, miR21-5p and miR-141a had excellent diagnostic performance.

Cost-effectiveness of the screen-and-treat strategies using HPV test linked to thermal ablation for cervical cancer prevention in China: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

Self-sampling HPV test and thermal ablation are effective tools to increase screening coverage and treatment compliance for accelerating cervical cancer elimination. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of their combined strategies to inform accessible, affordable, and acceptable cervical cancer prevention strategies.

METHODS

We developed a hybrid model to evaluate costs, health outcomes, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of six screen-and-treat strategies combining HPV testing (self-sampling or physician-sampling), triage modalities (HPV genotyping, colposcopy or none) and thermal ablation, from a societal perspective. A designated initial cohort of 100,000 females born in 2015 was considered. Strategies with an ICER less than the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita ($10,350) were considered highly cost-effective.

RESULTS

Compared with current strategies in China (physician-HPV with genotype or cytology triage), all screen-and-treat strategies are cost-effective and self-HPV without triage is optimal with the most incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained (220 to 440) in rural and urban China. Each screen-and-treat strategy based on self-collected samples is cost-saving compared with current strategies (-$818,430 to -$3540) whereas more costs are incurred using physician-collected samples compared with current physician-HPV with genotype triage (+$20,840 to +$182,840). For screen-and-treat strategies without triage, more costs (+$9404 to +$380,217) would be invested in the screening and treatment of precancerous lesions rather than the cancer treatment compared with the current screening strategies. Notably, however, more than 81.6% of HPV-positive women would be overtreated. If triaged with HPV 7 types or HPV16/18 genotypes, 79.1% or 67.2% (respectively) of HPV-positive women would be overtreated with fewer cancer cases avoided (19 cases or 69 cases).

CONCLUSIONS

Screen-and-treat strategy using self-sampling HPV test linked to thermal ablation could be the most cost-effective for cervical cancer prevention in China. Additional triage with quality-assured performance could reduce overtreatment and remains highly cost-effective compared with current strategies.

Sequence-Dependent Interaction of the Human Papillomavirus E2 Protein with the DNA Elements on Its DNA Replication Origin

The human papillomavirus (HPV) E2 protein is essential for regulating the initiation of viral DNA replication as well as the regulation of transcription of certain HPV-encoded genes. Its ability to recognize and bind to its four recognition sequences in the viral origin is a key step in the initiation of HPV DNA replication. Thus, understanding the mechanism of DNA binding by E2 protein and the unique roles played by individual DNA sequence elements of the replication origin is essential. We have purified the recombinant full-length HPV type 11 E2 protein. Quantitative DNA binding analysis indicated E2 protein bound all four DNA binding sites with reasonably high affinities but with distinct preferences. It bound its cognate binding sites 1, 2, and 4 with higher affinities, but bound binding site 3 with lower affinity. Analysis of binding to these sites unraveled multiple sequence elements that appeared to influence E2 binding affinity and target discrimination, including the sequence of spacer region, flanking sequences, and proximity of E2 binding sites. Thermodynamic analysis indicated hydrophobic interaction in the protein-DNA complex formation. Our studies indicate a large multi-protein complex formation on the HPV-origin DNA, likely due to reasonably high binding affinities as well as intrinsic oligomerization propensity of E2 dimers.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of risk-based breast cancer screening in Urban Hebei Province

To evaluate the implementations of Cancer Screening Program in Urban Hebei and to model the cost-effectiveness of a risk-based breast Cancer Screening Program. Women aged 40-74 years were invited to participate the Cancer Screening Program in Urban Hebei form 2016 to 2020 by completing questionnaires to collect information about breast cancer exposure. Clinical screening including ultrasound and mammography examination were performed. We developed a Markov model to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits, in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALY), of a high-risk breast Cancer Screening Program. Nine screening strategies and no screening were included in the study. The age-specific incidence, transition probability data and lifetime treatment costs were derived and adopted from other researches. Average cost-effectiveness ratios (ACERs) were estimated as the ratios of the additional costs of the screening strategies to the QLYG compared to no screening. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated based on the comparison of a lower cost strategies to the next more expensive and effective strategies after excluding dominated strategies and extendedly dominated strategies. ICERs were used to compare with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. Sensitivity analysis was explored the influence factors. A total of 84,029 women completed a risk assessment questionnaire, from which 20,655 high-risk breast cancer females were evaluated, with a high-risk rate of 24.58%. There were 13,392 high-risk females completed the screening program, with participation rate was 64.84%. Undergoing ultrasound, mammography and combined screening, the suspicious positive detection rates were 15.00%, 9.20% and 19.30%, and the positive detection rates were 2.11%, 2.76% and 3.83%, respectively. According to the results by Markov model, at the end of 45 cycle, the early diagnosis rates were 55.53%, 60.68% and 62.47% underwent the annual screening by ultrasound, mammography and combined, the proportion of advanced cancer were 17.20%, 15.85% and 15.36%, respectively. Different screening method and interval yield varied. In the exploration of various scenarios, annual ultrasound screening is the most cost-effective strategy with the ICER of ¥116,176.15/QALY. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the results are robust. Although it was not cost effective, combined ultrasound and mammography screening was an effective strategy for higher positive detection rate of breast cancer. High-risk population-based breast cancer screening by ultrasound annually was the most cost-effective strategy in Urban Hebei Province.

The diversity of vaginal microbiome in women infected with single HPV and multiple genotype HPV infections in China

INTRODUCTION

The human papillomavirus (HPV) is the leading cause of cervical cancer globally. However, its microbial composition and association with the types of HPV infection remain elusive.

METHODS

This study was designed to characterize the vaginal microbiota of 53 HPV-infected and 16 normal women (control group) by using high-throughput sequencing with the Illumina platform.

RESULTS

In this study, the five leading phyla were Firmicutes (73.9%), Actinobacteriota (12.8%), Proteobacteria (6.2%), Fusobacteria (3.5%), and Bacteroidota (3.1%). We found that single HPV genotype-positive women had higher α-microbial diversity compared with HPV-negative and multiple HPV-positive women. In women with a single HPV genotype infection, the HPV-16 infection had significantly higher α-diversity than other genotype infections. In multiple HPV genotype-positive women, the highest α-diversity was found in women positive for HR-HR HPV genotype infection, compared with other infections. Furthermore, in single- and multiple-genotype infections, the abundance of s_unclassified_g_Lactobacillus decreased whereas the abundance of s_Gardnerella_vaginalis increased compared with control. Additionally, s_unclassified_f_Rhizobiaceae and s_sneathia_sanguinegens were only found in HPV-infected women.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that the type of HPV infection was associated with the composition of the vaginal microbiota. Further studies on HPV genotypes and vaginal microbiota are necessary to uncover more mysteries of their association and provide a promising therapeutic target as well as low-cost future therapeutic strategies.

Harms and benefits of cervical cancer screening among non-attenders in Switzerland: The transition towards HPV-based screening

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We evaluate the expected benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening strategies.

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Primary self-sampling with HPV was associated with a lower cancer incidence and mortality compared to cytology.

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Primary self-sampling with HPV resulted in a reduction of screening and follow-up visits.

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Primary self-sampling with HPV has a reasonable balance of harms and benefits when performed every 5 years.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) testing is replacing cytological screening for cervical cancer. Our aim was to assess the expected benefits and harms of different cervical screening strategies. This study is sub-analysis of a previous cost-effectiveness study with a target population of unscreened women without cervical cancer aged ≥ 25 years. A recursive decision-tree with one-year cycles was used to model the life-long natural HPV history. Markov cohort simulations were used to assess the expected outcomes from the model. The outcomes of three strategies were compared with the absence of screening: HPV-testing on self-collected vaginal samples (Self-HPV) followed by colposcopy (Self-HPV/colpo), Self-HPV and triage with cytology (Self-HPV/PAP), cytology and triage with HPV (PAP/HPV). All screening strategies resulted in reductions in cancer cases and deaths. Self-HPV strategies were associated with a lower cancer incidence and mortality life-long, not only when performed every 3 years but also when Self-HPV was performed every 5 years vs cytology every 3 years. The gain in life expectancy obtained was 82 days with Self-HPV/colpo, 81 days with Self-HPV/PAP and 75 days with PAP/HPV compared to no screening. The number of lifetime total visits was greater with PAP/HPV compared with the Self-HPV strategies (13.13 vs < 3). The number of conizations remained relatively stable with the change of screening frequency and strategy. Self-HPV may represent a reasonable balance of harms and benefits when performed every 5 years compared to cytology every 3 years. Self-HPV/PAP yielded the most efficient harm to benefit ratio when using colposcopy as a proxy for harms.

Cyberchondria levels in women with human papilloma virus

AIM

To investigate the level of cyberchondria in patients with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) positivity.

METHODS

One hundred and forty women who applied to our clinic between July 2020 and September 2020 and were diagnosed with high-risk HPV positivity or abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB) were included in the study. The Cyberchondria Severity Scale (CSS) was administered face-to-face to the participants. CSS and subscales scores of both groups of patients were evaluated and compared.

RESULTS

The mean score of the patients on the CSS was 78.54 ± 22.09 and the patients with AUB and HPV(+) was 67.43 ± 19.87 and 84.16 ± 21.08, respectively. The mean subscale scores were as follows, compulsion 13.89 ± 6.49, distress 20.07 ± 7.54, excessiveness 22.40 ± 8.18, reassurance 15.07 ± 6.56, and mistrust of medical professionals 7.26 ± 3.62. The mean scores of the CSS and subscales except for the mistrust of medical professional subscale were higher in patients who were HPV-positive than in other patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with HPV have higher levels of cyberchondria. Medical professionals can reduce this anxiety by giving information to patients.

Role of Immunity and Vaginal Microbiome in Clearance and Persistence of Human Papillomavirus Infection

Cervical cancer disproportionately affects women of reproductive age, with 80% of cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries. Persistent infection with high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes has been described as the most common non-systemic biological risk factor for the development of cervical cancer. The mucosal immune system plays a significant role in controlling HPV infection by acting as the first line of host defense at the mucosal surface. However, the virus can evade host immunity using various mechanisms, including inhibition of the antiviral immune response necessary for HPV clearance. Pro-inflammatory cytokines and the vaginal microbiome coordinate cell-mediated immune responses and play a pivotal role in modulating immunity. Recently, diverse vaginal microbiome (associated with bacterial vaginosis) and genital inflammation have emerged as potential drivers of high-risk HPV positivity and disease severity in women. The potential role of these risk factors on HPV recurrence and persistence remains unclear. This article reviews the role of cellular or cytokine response and vaginal microbiome dysbiosis in the clearance, persistence, and recurrence of HPV infection.

The Complex Interplay between Vaginal Microbiota, HPV Infection, and Immunological Microenvironment in Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia: A Literature Review

Background: in recent years, many studies were carried out to explore the role of vaginal microbiota in HPV infections and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) progression. The aim of this study was to conduct a review of the literature to analyze the interaction between the vaginal microbiota, the CIN, and the immunological response. Methods: we performed a literature search, considering papers published between November 2015 and September 2021. Results: despite significant evidence suggesting a role of vaginal microbiota in the pathogenesis of HPV-related lesions, some studies still struggle to demonstrate this correlation. However, the vaginal microbiota of HPV-positive women shows an increased diversity, combined with a reduced relative abundance of Lactobacillus spp. and a higher pH. In cervical dysplasia progression, a strong association is found with new bacteria, and with the deregulation of pathways and hyperexpression of cytokines leading to chronic inflammation. Conclusions: in HPV progression, there is a strong correlation between potential biomarkers, such as Sneathia and Delftia found in community state types IV and II, and chronic inflammation with cytokine overexpression. Better analysis of these factors could be of use in the prevention of the progression of the disease and, eventually, in new therapeutic strategies.

DETERMINING PROBABILITY OF CANCER CELL TRANSFOMATION AT HUMAN PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTION

Aim. The purpose of the work was to assess the probability of cancerous transformation of cells for viruses of high and low oncogenic risk. Aim. The purpose of the work was to assess the probability of cancerous transformation of cells for viruses of high and low oncogenic risk. Results. Using normalized squared error (NSE) for viruses of high (20 strains) and low (153 strains) oncogenic risk, rank statistic of 2-exponential type was build. For productive papillomavirus infection, NSE function was determined as the growing accurate 2-exponent of a cell layer basal to the epithelial surface. Logarithm of NSE numerical values is proportional to the cell entropy that is connected with the availability of virus DNA. To calculate entropy, generalized Hartley formula was used with the informational cell of dimension d: H = NdLOG(NSE), where N is the generalized cell coordinate. Conclusions. Using a statistical ensemble of E6 proteins separately for viruses of high and low oncogenic risk made it possible to assess the probability of cancerous transformation of cells, which was proportional to the ratio of the area of entropy of cancer transformation to the area of the productive entropy region papillomavirus infection.

Cost-Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analysis of Primary Screening With Human Papillomavirus Test With Genotyping in Argentina

OBJECTIVES

Cervical cancer (ICC) is the fourth leading cause of mortality in women in Argentina and primary screening with conventional cytology (Papanicolaou smear) is the most widely used strategy despite its limitations. Strategies based on human papillomavirus (HPV) testing have the potential to improve detection and reduce mortality. The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and budgetary impact of a strategy based on HPV testing with genotyping.

METHODS

We used a decision model to compare the ICC screening strategies. The population consisted of 30- to 65-year-old females suitable for screening in Argentina. Inputs comprised epidemiologic, diagnostic performance, and costs data. The clinical impact was represented by the number of ICC detected and ICC-related mortality. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, estimated in terms of Argentinean pesos per life-year gained, and the budgetary impact were calculated at 5, 10, and 20 years. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Primary screening with HPV testing would prevent 1853 ICC deaths and reduce mortality by 13% at year 10 compared with Papanicolaou smear. With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of AR$329 042 in the base case, it would be cost-effective for a cost-effectiveness threshold of 1 gross domestic product per capita. It would imply an additional expense in the first 5 years and probably savings in the subsequent ones. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary screening strategy based on HPV testing with genotyping compared with conventional cytology is most likely a cost-effective strategy in Argentina.

Identifying False Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Information and Corresponding Risk Perceptions From Twitter: Advanced Predictive Models

Background

The vaccination uptake rates of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine remain low despite the fact that the effectiveness of HPV vaccines has been established for more than a decade. Vaccine hesitancy is in part due to false information about HPV vaccines on social media. Combating false HPV vaccine information is a reasonable step to addressing vaccine hesitancy.

Objective

Given the substantial harm of false HPV vaccine information, there is an urgent need to identify false social media messages before it goes viral. The goal of the study is to develop a systematic and generalizable approach to identifying false HPV vaccine information on social media.

Methods

This study used machine learning and natural language processing to develop a series of classification models and causality mining methods to identify and examine true and false HPV vaccine–related information on Twitter.

Results

We found that the convolutional neural network model outperformed all other models in identifying tweets containing false HPV vaccine–related information (F score=91.95). We also developed completely unsupervised causality mining models to identify HPV vaccine candidate effects for capturing risk perceptions of HPV vaccines. Furthermore, we found that false information contained mostly loss-framed messages focusing on the potential risk of vaccines covering a variety of topics using more diverse vocabulary, while true information contained both gain- and loss-framed messages focusing on the effectiveness of vaccines covering fewer topics using relatively limited vocabulary.

Conclusions

Our research demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of using predictive models to identify false HPV vaccine information and its risk perceptions on social media.

The Lifetime Cost Estimation of Human Papillomavirus-related Diseases in China: A Modeling Study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the lifetime treatment costs of patients with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection-related diseases in China and to provide cost estimates for the economic evaluation of HPV intervention strategies.

METHODS

We extracted real-world hospital data from 2012 to 2019 and screened for subjects who met the criteria of clinical diagnosis of HPV-related diseases to obtain country-specific inputs into a Markov decision model. The model simulated lifetime treatment costs for HPV from the perspective of a national payer. A 5% discount rate was applied. Costs were converted and inflated to 2020 US dollars (USD).

RESULTS

Using 2021 as the base year, the lifetime costs per patient for carcinoma in situ, local metastasis, and distant metastasis cervical cancer are $24,208 (95%CI: 18,793-30,897), $19,562 (95%CI: 14,456-25,567), and $17,599 (95%CI: 10,604-25,807), respectively. For carcinoma in situ, local metastasis, and distant metastasis vaginal cancer, the lifetime costs are $17,593 (95%CI: 14,962-23,596), $17,120 (95%CI: 13,215-22,417), and $22,411 (95%CI: 12,172-22,249), respectively. The base-case lifetime cost per patient for different stages of vulvar cancer/penile cancer/anal cancer/oral cancer/oropharyngeal cancer/laryngeal cancer falls within $17,120-$58,236.

CONCLUSIONS

Using real-world data, we calculated lifetime treatment costs of HPV-related cancer in China and found that the lifetime cost for patients exceeded $17,000 for various stages of disease. The national burden of HPV-related disease could be significantly reduced by eliminating HPV infection.

Sexually Transmitted Infections Treatment Guidelines, 2021

These guidelines for the treatment of persons who have or are at risk for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were updated by CDC after consultation with professionals knowledgeable in the field of STIs who met in Atlanta, Georgia, June 11-14, 2019. The information in this report updates the 2015 guidelines. These guidelines discuss 1) updated recommendations for treatment of Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis, and Trichomonas vaginalis; 2) addition of metronidazole to the recommended treatment regimen for pelvic inflammatory disease; 3) alternative treatment options for bacterial vaginosis; 4) management of Mycoplasma genitalium; 5) human papillomavirus vaccine recommendations and counseling messages; 6) expanded risk factors for syphilis testing among pregnant women; 7) one-time testing for hepatitis C infection; 8) evaluation of men who have sex with men after sexual assault; and 9) two-step testing for serologic diagnosis of genital herpes simplex virus. Physicians and other health care providers can use these guidelines to assist in prevention and treatment of STIs.

Impact of COVID-19 on Outcomes for Patients With Cervical Cancer in India

PURPOSE

The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented demands on the health system. This led to delays in the initiation and completion of cancer treatment. We assessed the long-term health consequences because of the delay in diagnosis and treatment for cervical cancer due to COVID-19 in India.

METHODS

We used a Markov-model–based analysis assessing the lifetime health outcomes of the cohort of women population at risk from cervical cancer in India. The decrease in survival for those with the treatment interruption was calculated based on the number of days the treatment was extended beyond the standard duration. Furthermore, to model the impact of late diagnosis and delayed treatment initiation, the patients were assumed to have upstaged during the delay period, as per natural progression of disease.

RESULTS

We estimate 2.52% (n = 795) to 3.80% (n = 2,160) lifetime increase in the deaths caused by cervical cancer with treatment restrictions ranging from 9 weeks to 6 months, respectively, as compared to no delay. On the contrary, 88-238 deaths because of COVID-19 disease are estimated to be saved during this restriction period among the patients with cervical cancer. Overall, the excess mortality because of cervical cancer led to 18,159-53,626 life-years being lost and an increase of 16,808-50,035 disability-adjusted life-years.

CONCLUSION

Delays in diagnosis and treatment are likely to lead to more cervical cancer deaths as compared to COVID-19 mortality averted among the patients with cervical cancer. Health systems must reorganize in terms of priority setting for provision of care, starting with prioritizing the treatment of patients with early-stage cervical cancer, increasing use of teleconsultation, and strengthening the role of primary care physicians in provision of cancer care.

Is the HPV-test more cost-effective than cytology in cervical cancer screening? An economic analysis from a middle-income country

OBJECTIVE

To report a modelling study using local health care costs and epidemiological inputs from a population-based program to access the cost-effectiveness of adopting hrHPV test.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis based on a microsimulation dynamic Markov model. Data and costs were based on data from the local setting and literature review. The setting was Indaiatuba, Brazil, that has adopted the hrHPV test in place of cytology since 2017. After calibrating the model, one million women were simulated in hypothetical cohorts. Three strategies were tested: cytology to women aged 25 to 64 every three years; hrHPV test to women 25-64 every five years; cytology to women 25-29 years every three years and hrHPV test to women 30-64 every five years (hybrid strategy). Outcomes were Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

The hrHPV testing and the hybrid strategy were the dominant strategies. Costs were lower and provided a more effective option at a negative incremental ratio of US$ 37.87 for the hybrid strategy, and negative US$ 6.16 for the HPV strategy per QALY gained. Reduction on treatment costs would influence a decrease in ICER, and an increase in the costs of the hrHPV test would increase ICER.

CONCLUSIONS

Using population-based data, the switch from cytology to hrHPV testing in the cervical cancer screening program of Indaiatuba is less costly and cost-effective than the old cytology program.

Predictors associated with and the prevalence of condylomata acuminata infection among people in Southern Brazil

Objectives:  To estimate the prevalence of condylomata acuminata/HPV and evaluate associated predictors in infected patients. Methods: In this cross-sectional and retrospective study, medical records of patients who attended a public health referral center located in Southern Brazil, Parana, between April 2012 and March 2017 were reviewed. Epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data were analyzed using the chi-square and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Results: The overall prevalence of condylomata acuminata/HPV in 3,447 patients was 33.1% (n = 1,140). Coinfection of condylomata/HPV with other STI was noted in 23.7% (n = 270) of cases. The population was characterized by a high prevalence (43.8%) in patients aged < 20 years, women (37.4%), white (33.3%), educational level with more than 8 years of study (33.7%), widowed (39.2%), heterosexual (36.7%), and ages between 13 and 19 years at first sexual intercourse (41.1%). A significant association was observed between male sex and multiple partners and between male sex and irregular use of condoms (p < 0.001). The predictors associated with HPV infection were the age group of up to 29 years (OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3–3.7, p < 0.013) and homosexual/bisexual (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.12–0.66, p = 0.003). Conclusion: The findings showed a high prevalence of condylomata acuminata in a public health center study, with emphasis on the age range below the third decade of life and sexual behavior predictors. These predictors are important for the determination of preventive measures against the transmission of infection and the development of cancer.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of eliminating cervical cancer through a tailored optimal pathway: a modeling study

BACKGROUND

The World Health Assembly has adopted a global strategy to eliminate cervical cancer. However, neither the optimal pathway nor the corresponding economic and health benefits have been evaluated. We take China as an example to assess the optimal pathway towards elimination and the cost-effectiveness of tailored actions.

METHODS

A validated hybrid model was used to assess the costs and benefits of alternative strategies combining human papillomavirus vaccination, cervical screening, and treatment of pre-invasive lesions and invasive cancer for females with different immunization history. All Chinese females living or projected to be born during 2015-2100, under projected trends in aging, urbanization, and sexual activity, were considered. Optimal strategies were determined by cost-effectiveness efficiency frontiers. Primary outcomes were cervical cancer cases and deaths averted and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We employed a lifetime horizon from a societal perspective. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluate model uncertainty.

RESULTS

The optimal pathway represents an integration of multiple tailored strategies from females with different immunization history. If China adopts the optimal pathway, the age-standardized incidence of cervical cancer is predicted to decrease to fewer than four new cases per 100,000 women (i.e., elimination) by 2047 (95% confidence interval 2043 to 2050). Compared to the status quo, the optimal pathway would avert a total of 7,509,192 (6,922,744 to 8,359,074) cervical cancer cases and 2,529,873 (2,366,826 to 2,802,604) cervical cancer deaths in 2021-2100, with the discounted ICER being $- 339 (- 687 to - 79) per quality-adjusted life-year.

CONCLUSIONS

By adopting an optimal pathway from 2021 (namely, the year of the first Chinese Centennial Goals) onwards, cervical cancer could be eliminated by the late 2040s (namely, ahead of the second Chinese Centennial Goals) while saving net economic costs in China.

A proposed new generation of evidence-based microsimulation models to inform global control of cervical cancer

Health decision models are the only available tools designed to consider the lifetime natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and pathogenesis of cervical cancer, and the estimated long-term impact of preventive interventions. Yet health decision modeling results are often considered a lesser form of scientific evidence due to the inherent needs to rely on imperfect data and make numerous assumptions and extrapolations regarding complex processes. We propose a new health decision modeling framework that de-emphasizes cytologic-colposcopic-histologic diagnoses due to their subjectivity and lack of reproducibility, relying instead on HPV type and duration of infection as the major determinants of subsequent transition probabilities. We posit that the new model health states (normal, carcinogenic HPV infection, precancer, cancer) and corollary transitions are universal, but that the probabilities of transitioning between states may vary by population. Evidence for this variability in host response to HPV infections can be inferred from HPV prevalence patterns in different regions across the lifespan, and might be linked to different average population levels of immunologic control of HPV infections. By prioritizing direct estimation of model transition probabilities from longitudinal data (and limiting reliance on model-fitting techniques that may propagate error when applied to multiple transitions), we aim to reduce the number of assumptions for greater transparency and reliability. We propose this new microsimulation model for critique and discussion, hoping to contribute to models that maximally inform efficient strategies towards global cervical cancer elimination.

The epidemiologic and economic impact of a quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccine in Thailand

BACKGROUND

The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine was introduced into Thailand's national immunization program in 2017 for 11-12 year old school girls. The objectives of this study were to examine the epidemiological consequences and cost-effectiveness of a routine quadrivalent HPV (4vHPV) vaccination and the routine 4vHPV vaccination plus 5-year catch-up vaccination by comparing with cervical cancer screening only (no vaccination) in Thailand.

METHOD

A transmission dynamic model was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of the routine 4vHPV vaccination and the routine 4vHPV vaccination plus catch-up vaccination, compared with no vaccination (screening only) in Thai population. The vaccination coverage rate assumptions were 95% in 11-12-year-old girls for the routine vaccination and 70% in 13-24 year-old females for the 5-year catch-up vaccination. Vaccination costs, direct medical costs of HPV-related diseases, and the number of quality of life years (QALYs) gained were calculated for over a 100-year time horizon with discount rate of 3%.

RESULT

The model indicated that the routine 4vHPV vaccination and the routine plus catch-up 4vHPV vaccination strategies could prevent approximately 434,130 and 472,502 cumulative cases of cervical cancer, 182,234 and 199,068 cumulative deaths from cervical cancer and 12,708,349 and 13,641,398 cumulative cases of HPV 6/11 related genital warts, respectively, when compared with no vaccination over 100 years. The estimated cost per QALY gained (ICER) when compared to no vaccination in Thailand was 8,370 THB/QALY for the routine vaccination and 9,650 THB/QALY for the routine with catch-up vaccination strategy.

CONCLUSION

Considering the recommended threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY for Thailand, the implementation of the routine 4vHPV vaccination either alone or plus the catch-up vaccination was cost-effective as compared to the cervical cancer screening only.

Stability analysis and optimal control of HPV infection model with early-stage cervical cancer

Cervical cancer cells may develop from any cell infected by human papillomavirus (HPV). The aim of this paper is to study whether an optimal control of HPV infection can reduce those resulting cancer cells. To this end, the problem will be modelled by five differential equations that describe the interactions between healthy cells, infected cells, free virus, precancerous cells and cancer cells. A saturated infection rate and two treatments are incorporated into the model. The first therapy stands for the efficacy of drug treatment in blocking new infections, whereas the second serves as the drug effectiveness in inhibiting viral production. First, The problem well-posedness is fulfilled in terms of existence, positivity and boundedness of solution. Next, the existence for the two optimal control pair is established, Pontryagin's maximum principle is used to characterize these two optimal controls. Moreover, the optimality system is derived and solved numerically using the forward and backward difference approximation scheme. Finally, numerical simulations are established in order to show the role of optimal therapy in controlling cancer cells proliferation. It was revealed that the antiviral drug therapies do not act only on the viral infection spread but also on reducing the amount of precancerous and cancerous cells. Consequently, the antiviral therapies can be considered amongst the most promising measures to reduce cervical cancer cells invasion.

A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data

The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. In this article, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.

Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for adults through age 45 years in the United States: Estimates from a simplified transmission model

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to assess incremental costs and benefits of a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program expanded to include "mid-adults" (adults aged 27 through 45 years) in the United States.

METHODS

We adapted a previously published, dynamic mathematical model of HPV transmission and HPV-associated disease to estimate the incremental costs and benefits of a 9-valent HPV vaccine (9vHPV) program for people aged 12 through 45 years compared to a 9vHPV program for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years.

RESULTS

A 9vHPV program for females aged 12 through 26 years and males aged 12 through 21 years was estimated to cost < $10,000 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, compared to no vaccination. Expanding the 9vHPV program to include mid-adults was estimated to cost $587,600 per additional QALY gained when including adults through age 30 years, and $653,300 per additional QALY gained when including adults through age 45 years. Results were most sensitive to assumptions about HPV incidence among mid-adults, current and historical vaccination coverage, vaccine price, and the impact of HPV diseases on quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Mid-adult vaccination is much less cost-effective than the comparison strategy of routine vaccination for all adolescents at ages 11 to 12 years and catch-up vaccination for women through age 26 years and men through age 21 years.

Mailed self-sample HPV testing kits to improve cervical cancer screening in a safety net health system: protocol for a hybrid effectiveness-implementation randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Almost 20% of U.S. women remain at risk for cervical cancer due to their inability or unwillingness to participate in periodic clinic-based screening. Self-sampling has been shown to be an effective strategy for screening women for high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection in specific contexts. However, its effectiveness among medically underserved women in safety net health systems has not been evaluated. Furthermore, it is also unclear whether implementation strategies such as patient navigation can be used to improve the success of self-sample screening programs by addressing patient-level barriers to participation.

METHODS/DESIGN

The Prospective Evaluation of Self-Testing to Increase Screening (PRESTIS) trial is a hybrid type 2 effectiveness-implementation pragmatic randomized controlled trial of mailed self-sample HPV testing. The aim is to assess the effectiveness of mailed self-sample HPV testing kits to improve cervical cancer screening participation among patients in a safety net health system who are overdue for clinic-based screening, while simultaneously assessing patient navigation as an implementation strategy. Its setting is a large, urban safety net health system that serves a predominantly racial/ethnic minority patient population. The trial targets recruitment of 2268 participants randomized to telephone recall (enhanced usual care, n = 756), telephone recall with mailed self-sample HPV testing kit (intervention, n = 756), or telephone recall with mailed self-sample HPV testing kit and patient navigation (intervention + implementation strategy, n = 756). The primary effectiveness outcome is completion of primary screening, defined as completion and return of mailed self-sample kit or completion of a clinic-based Pap test. Secondary effectiveness outcomes are predictors of screening and attendance for clinical follow-up among women with a positive screening test. Implementation outcomes are reach, acceptability, fidelity, adaptations, and cost-effectiveness.

DISCUSSION

Hybrid designs are needed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of self-sample HPV testing in specific populations and settings, while incorporating and evaluating methods to optimize its real-world implementation. The current manuscript describes the rationale and design of a hybrid type 2 trial of self-sample HPV testing in a safety net health system. Trial findings are expected to provide meaningful data to inform screening strategies to ultimately realize the global goal of eliminating cervical cancer.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03898167 . Registered on 01 April 2019.

TRIAL STATUS

Study start data: February 13, 2020. Recruitment status: Enrolling by invitation. Estimated primary completion date: February 15, 2023. Estimated study completion date: May 31, 2024. Protocol version 1.6 (February 25, 2020).

Online Cost-Effectiveness ANalysis (OCEAN): a user-friendly interface to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses for cervical cancer

Background

Most cost-effectiveness analyses in the context of cervical cancer prevention involve the use of mathematical models to simulate HPV infection, cervical disease and prevention strategies. However, it is common for professionals who would need to perform these analyses to not be familiar with the models. This work introduces the Online Cost-Effectiveness ANalysis tool, featuring an easy-to-use web interface providing health professionals, researchers and decision makers involved in cervical cancer prevention programmes with a useful instrument to conduct complex cost-effectiveness analyses, which are becoming an essential tool as an approach for supporting decision-making that involves important trade-offs.

Results

The users can run cost-effectiveness evaluations of cervical cancer prevention strategies without deep knowledge of the underlying mathematical model or any programming language, obtaining the most relevant costs and health outcomes in a user-friendly format. The results provided by the tool are consistent with the existing literature.

Conclusions

Having such a tool will be an asset to the cervical cancer prevention community, providing researchers with an easy-to-use instrument to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses.

Cost effectiveness of strategies for cervical cancer prevention in India

The establishment of link between high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and occurrence of cervical cancer has resulted in development of various HPV related control strategies for the prevention of cervical cancer. The objective of the present study was to assess the cost effectiveness of various screening strategies for cervical cancer and human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination in India. A Markov model based on societal perspective was designed to estimate the lifetime costs and consequences of screening (with either visual inspect with acetic acid (VIA), Papanicolaou test or HPV DNA test at various time intervals) in a hypothetical cohort of 30-65 years age women or vaccination among adolescent girls. Diagnostic accuracy of the screening strategies, efficacy of HPV vaccination and data on transition probabilities was based on the results of the existing meta-analyses. Primary data was collected for assessing per person cost of screening, cost of treating cervical cancer and quality of life. We found that introduction of different screening strategies leads to reduction in lifetime occurrence of cervical cancer cases caused by HPV 16/18 from 20% to 61%, and cervical cancer deaths from 28% to 70%, as compared to no screening. Among various screening strategies, screening with both VIA 5 yearly and VIA 10 yearly came out to be cost effective at 1-time per capita GDP, with VIA every 5 years providing greater health benefits as compared to VIA 10 years. Hence, screening with VIA 5 years at an incremental cost of US$ 829 (INR 54,881) per QALY gained is the recommended strategy for India. Further, with regards to HPV vaccination, it leads to 60% reduction in cancer cases and mortality caused by HPV 16/18 as compared to no vaccination. Moreover, when this vaccinated cohort of adolescent girls is also screened later in their life (with VIA every 10 years and VIA 5 years), it leads to 69%-76% reduction in cancer cases and 71%-81% reduction in cancer deaths. As compared to no vaccination and no screening, both HPV vaccination alone and vaccination plus screening (with VIA every 5 yearly and VIA 10 yearly) appears to be cost effective with ICERs in the range of US$ 86 (INR 5,693) to US$ 476 (INR 31,511) per QALY gained. In the long run, when the cohort of adolescent girls, who were immunized for HPV, reach the age of 30 years, the screening frequency using VIA should be determined based on the coverage of HPV vaccination in that cohort.

Economic Evaluation Studies

Economic evaluations, including cost-effectiveness analyses, are frameworks for decision-making. They help to illustrate tradeoffs between selecting one choice over another. This form of analysis is of great power and value to the health-care system. Health-care decisions are complex; they require synthesis of a myriad of data variables and sources, and the impact of the choices made is significant. Given this importance and the increasing demand and complexity of health decisions, it is imperative to ensure that economic evaluations are of high quality, comprehensive, and follow the guidelines and recommendations of experts in the field. This article provides an overview of the types of economic evaluations and their role in decision-making. It also discusses key study design considerations, including methods, scope, results, and reporting. Links to published checklists are provided along with additional sources of information, including a glossary of terms (Appendix), to guide the researcher to produce high-quality economic evaluations and guide the reviewer to provide high-quality feedback during the review process.

Psychological distress in cervical cancer screening: results from a German online survey

Purpose

The PODCAD study aimed at assessing the degree of psychological stress that women experience due to notification of an abnormal Papanicolaou (Pap) smear finding or a positive human papillomavirus (HPV) test result.

Methods

We designed a survey to address the question of psychological burden due to abnormal Pap smear results and/or positive HPV tests. In this online campaign approach, we aimed to reach > 2000 women all over Germany irrespective of kind and number of abnormal screening findings. We asked for different kinds of anxiety, distress and uncertainty regarding both, Pap and HPV status.

Results

A total of 3753 women completed the survey at least partially, and almost 2300 fully completed the survey. Of these, more than 50% were affected already since more than 1 year, and almost half of them had experienced at least three Pap smears in follow-up examinations. Almost 70% of the women were afraid of developing cancer. Intriguingly, almost half of the women with abnormal findings were not aware of their stage of the Pap smear. Furthermore, almost 30% of the women displayed signs of a post-traumatic stress disorder.

Conclusion

Abnormal results in cervical cancer screening have an impact on patients’ psychology, irrespective of the knowledge and severity of the findings. Better information concerning risks and benefits of cervical cancer screening and about the meaning of the outcome of its procedures are required to decrease this anxiety.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00404-020-05661-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effects on Vaginal Microbiota Restoration and Cervical Epithelialization in Positive HPV Patients Undergoing Vaginal Treatment with Carboxy-Methyl-Beta-Glucan

Objective

Evaluate the effects of carboxy-methyl-beta-glucan on cervical epithelialization and on the vaginal microbiota in patients with HPV infection or low-grade cervical preneoplastic lesion (CIN 1).

Materials and Methods

Seven-hundred eighty-four women with positive HPV tests or diagnosed with CIN 1 were enrolled in a retrospective case-control study. All the recruited women performed, at baseline and after 6 months, Pap test, HPV test, evaluation of vaginal health according to the Amsel criteria, colposcopy, and punch biopsy. The study population was then divided into 2 groups in relation to the therapy performed during the follow-up period. Group A performed treatment with vaginal gel based on carboxy-methyl-beta-glucan (1 application/day for 20 days per month for 3 months). Group B was the control group.

Results

The patients of group A had a significant improvement in the ectopia pattern and a greater number of cases with metaplasia in the maturation phase with a significant increase in Lugol uptake. In the experimental group, a significant improvement in the pH indices, a negative Swift test and a resolution of the leucorrhoea were observed. A negative result of the 37.1% Pap test and the 39.9% HPV test (vs. 15.2% and 16.5%, respectively) were demonstrated in the treatment group with respect to the control group. A negativization of the colposcopic pictures was observed with a reduction in the amount of CIN 1 found higher in the treatment group.

Conclusions

Vaginal therapy based on carboxy-methyl-beta-glucan has been able to improve overall vaginal health; this effect seemed to positively impact the risk of persistence and progression of CIN.

Usefulness Analysis of Urine Samples for Early Screening of Human Papilloma Virus Infection

Human papilloma virus (HPV) is known to be a major cause of cervical cancer. In Korea, although the mortality of cervical cancer has decreased, HPV infection rates are increasing rapidly in young women. One of the reasons for a high rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection appears to be associated with a low frequency to visit gynecology clinics because of the uncomfortable sampling process for HPV testing. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a non-invasive method, such as urine testing to diagnose cervical cancer rather than use of the existing invasive method. This study aimed to test validity of HPV DNA detection in urine specimens that can be easily collected from women. Paired vaginal discharge and urine samples were collected prospectively from 203 women who visited the local hospital between January and August 2018 in Busan, Korea. By using the Virocheck^® assay kit (Optipharm), we found that 17.2% (35/203) of vaginal discharge samples were HPV positive and 82.8% (168/203) were HPV negative. In urine samples, 15.8% (32/203) were HPV positive and 84.2% (171/203) were HPV negative. The co-incident rate for HPV DNA detection was 84.8% in both vaginal discharge and urine samples. These results suggest that the HPV DNA detection using urine samples might be an alternative way to diagnose HPV infection in a non-invasive way. This analytical approach can be utilized as a screening test to identify HIV-infected patients who need a follow-up process by using urine samples.

Outcomes in women with biopsy-confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 or normal cervix and related cofactors: A 15-year population-based cohort study from China

OBJECTIVE

To estimate long-term outcomes of biopsy-confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 1 (CIN1) or normal cervix and identify the cofactors during disease progression.

METHODS

In 1999, a cervical cancer screening cohort in Shanxi, China, enrolled 1997 women aged 35-45. They were followed up at year 6, 11, and 15 after enrollment with high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) DNA testing, liquid-based cytology, and visual inspection with acetic acid. Progression, persistence, and regression rates were calculated, stratified by baseline hrHPV and cytological status. Risk factors associated with hrHPV acquisition, persistence, and progression were examined.

RESULTS

The cumulative rates of progression to CIN2+ among CIN1 over 6, 11, and 15 years were 7.5%, 21.4%, and 24.0%, respectively; the regression rates to normal cervix were 85.0%, 76.7%, and 72.9%, respectively. Over 6, 11, and 15 years, 0.7%, 2.9%, and 5.2% of normal cervix developed CIN2+, respectively, but over 90% remained normal after 15 years. CIN1 or normal cervix positive for hrHPV had significantly higher progression rates to CIN2+ than those without hrHPV. Similarly, the severity of cytological status was found to be associated with an increased risk of developing CIN2+. Women who had an earlier sexual debut were at a higher risk of acquiring new HPV infection and repeated HPV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical follow-up strategies for women with CIN1 or normal cervix could be adjusted accordingly based on hrHPV/cytology status.

Association between Vaginal Micro-environment Disorder and Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia in a Community Based Population in China

There are other factors that contribute to cervical carcinogenesis except HPV infection. This study aimed to investigate the association between vaginal micro-environment factors, including H₂O₂, vaginal PH value, vagina cleanness, β-glucuronidase, coagulase, neuraminidase and leukocyte esterase and cervical intraeipithelial neoplasia (CIN). In total 1019 participants, including 623 normal cervical (NC) women, 303 patients with low-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1) and 93 patients with high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/3), were enrolled into the study. HPV genotyping was detected by flow-through hybridization and gene chip. Vaginal H₂O₂, β-glucuronidase, coagulase, neuraminidase and leukocyte esterase were detected by Aerobic Vaginitis (AV) / Bacterial Vaginal Disease (BV) Five Joint Test Kit. Vaginal PH was measured on the glass slide after microscopy, using color strips with a PH range of 3.8-5.4. Vagina cleanness was determined according to the National Clinical Laboratory Practice Guideline. χ²test and Logistic regression were operated using SPSS 22.0 software. Our results showed that HPV16 infection rate and the abnormal rates of H₂O₂, PH, vagina cleanness, β-glucuronidase or neuraminidase increased gradually along with the severity of CIN (P<0.05). Abnormities of H₂O₂, cleanness, β-glucuronidase and neuraminidase were risk factors for CIN regardless of HPV16 infection, furthermore, abnormities of PH value, leukocyte esterase could also increase the risk of CIN in HPV16 positive group. In addition, women with abnormal vaginal micro-environment factors in HPV16 positive group had a significantly higher risk of developing CIN than HPV16 negative group. The results from generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction (GMDR) model showed that there was interaction effect with abnormities of vagina cleanness, H₂O₂, β-glucuronidase and neuraminidase on CIN2/3 in HPV16 negative group, while, there was interaction effect with abnormities of vagina cleanness, β-glucuronidase and neuraminidase on CIN1 and with abnormities of vagina cleanness, PH, H₂O₂, β-glucuronidase, neuraminidase and leukocyte esterase on CIN2/3 in HPV16 positive group. Our results suggested that vaginal micro-environment disorder could increase the risk of CIN, especially, the abnormality of H₂O₂, cleanness, β-glucuronidase and neuraminidase. There were interaction effects with abnormities of H₂O₂, vagina cleanness, β-glucuronidase and neuraminidase on CIN whether HPV16 was infected or not.

Cervical cancer prevention in Morocco: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis

Objective: Cervical cancer is a huge public health issue in Morocco which represents the second most frequent and fatal cancer among women. Countries that have not yet introduced the HPV vaccine could benefit greatly, but before implementation it is necessary to perform country-specific economic assessments that include current screening practices. Methods: A Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HPV and cervical cancer so as to calculate the long-term health benefits and costs of HPV vaccination and current screening by visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA). Starting from a previous transition probability matrix used for a model from Spain, the present model was calibrated to cervical cancer incidence from Morocco. Cost survey data was used to estimate the cost of screening and clinical procedures from the public healthcare perspective. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated as 2018US$ per additional year of life saved (YLS) and both costs and health outcomes were discounted at 3%. Results: The expected reduction in lifetime risk of cervical cancer for current screening would be 14% at a cost of US$551/YLS compared with no intervention, assuming VIA every 3 years in women aged 30-49 at 10% coverage. HPV vaccination of pre-adolescent girls at 70% coverage would reduce the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 62% at a cost of US$1,150/YLS, compared with no intervention. When implementing HPV vaccination in combination with current screening, vaccination would be dominated, and the combined strategy would provide a 69% reduction at a cost of US$2,843/YLS, compared with screening alone. Current screening would be dominated by vaccination when screening coverage is higher than 15%, whereas the combined strategy rapidly exceeds US$4,000/YLS. Conclusions: HPV vaccination could be highly effective and cost-effective in Morocco. Current screening would be good value for money compared with no intervention, but scaling-up screening coverage would make it inefficient compared with vaccination.

Human papillomavirus infection increases the risk of breast carcinoma: a large-scale systemic review and meta-analysis of case-control studies

Background

Breast carcinoma (BC) is a cancer with a high morbidity rate, but the mechanisms by which it develops are never clear. There has been speculation regarding the potential relationships between breast cancer and local HPV infections for some time, and although much clinical research supports this hypothesis, some research results disprove the association. Therefore, the association is still inconclusive.

Methods

We performed the data collection by searching the database PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library and Web of science. In addition, 22 sites were added manually. After carefully selection, the pooled odds rate of 37 included case control studies was calculated. Subgroup analysis, publication bias and trim & fill analysis were conducted to make the result more reliable.

Results

The analysis of 37 case control studies containing 3,607 BC cases and 1,728 controls showed obviously increase of BC risk with human papillomavirus (HPV) positive [summary odds ratio (SOR) =6.22, 95% confidence interval 4.25 to 9.12; P=0.0002]. Subgroup analysis proved three high risk HPV types (HPV16, 18 and 33) were positively correlated to BC.

Conclusions

This systemic review and meta-analysis provide the evidence for HPV infection as a potential risk factor in BC, while the mechanism of this hypothesis still needs further evaluation.

Clinical evaluation and budget impact analysis of cervical cancer screening using cobas 4800 HPV screening technology in the public sector of South Africa

Cytology remains the mainstay of cervical cancer screening in South Africa (SA), however false negative rates are 25-50%. In contrast, human papillomavirus (HPV) screening techniques have higher sensitivity for cervical cancer precursors. The cobas® 4800 HPV test detects pooled high-risk HPV types and individual genotypes HPV 16 and 18. Using a mathematical budget impact model, the study objective was to evaluate the clinical and budget impact of replacing primary liquid-based cytology (LBC) with primary HPV-based screening strategies. In SA, current LBC screening practice recommends one test every ten years, followed by large loop excision of the transformation zone (LLETZ) if indicated. HPV testing can be performed from an LBC sample, where no additional consultations nor samples are required. In the budget impact model, LBC screening for 2 cycles (one test every ten years) was compared to cobas® 4800 HPV test for 2 cycles (one test every 5 years). The model inputs were gathered from literature and primary data sources. Indicative prices for LBC and cobas® 4800 HPV test were R189 and R457, respectively. Model results indicate that best outcomes for detection of disease were seen using cobas® 4800 HPV test. Forty-eight percent of cervical cancer cases were detected compared to 28% using LBC, and 50% of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2 and CIN3 cases, compared to 25% with LBC. The budget impact analysis predicted that the cost per detected case of CIN2 or higher would be R 56,835 and R46,980 for the cobas® 4800 HPV and LBC scenarios, respectively. This equates to an incremental cost per detected case of CIN2 or higher of R9 855. From this model we conclude that a primary HPV screening strategy will have a significant clinical impact on disease burden in South Africa.