Using Machine Learning and Structural Neuroimaging to Detect First Episode Psychosis: Reconsidering the Evidence

Exploring the potential of representation and transfer learning for anatomical neuroimaging: Application to psychiatry

The perspective of personalized medicine for brain disorders requires efficient learning models for anatomical neuroimaging-based prediction of clinical conditions. There is now a consensus on the benefit of deep learning (DL) in addressing many medical imaging tasks, such as image segmentation. However, for single-subject prediction problems, recent studies yielded contradictory results when comparing DL with Standard Machine Learning (SML) on top of classical feature extraction. Most existing comparative studies were limited in predicting phenotypes of little clinical interest, such as sex and age, and using a single dataset. Moreover, they conducted a limited analysis of the employed image pre-processing and feature selection strategies. This paper extensively compares DL and SML prediction capacity on five multi-site problems, including three increasingly complex clinical applications in psychiatry namely schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) diagnosis. To compensate for the relative scarcity of neuroimaging data on these clinical datasets, we also evaluate three pre-training strategies for transfer learning from brain imaging of the general healthy population: self-supervised learning, generative modeling and supervised learning with age. Overall, we find similar performance between randomly initialized DL and SML for the three clinical tasks and a similar scaling trend for sex prediction. This was replicated on an external dataset. We also show highly correlated discriminative brain regions between DL and linear ML models in all problems. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that self-supervised pre-training on large-scale healthy population imaging datasets (N≈10k), along with Deep Ensemble, allows DL to learn robust and transferable representations to smaller-scale clinical datasets (N≤1k). It largely outperforms SML on 2 out of 3 clinical tasks both in internal and external test sets. These findings suggest that the improvement of DL over SML in anatomical neuroimaging mainly comes from its capacity to learn meaningful and useful abstract representations of the brain anatomy, and it sheds light on the potential of transfer learning for personalized medicine in psychiatry.

Longitudinal MicroRNA Signature of Conversion to Psychosis

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

The emergence of psychosis in ultra-high-risk subjects (UHR) is influenced by gene-environment interactions that rely on epigenetic mechanisms such as microRNAs. However, whether they can be relevant pathophysiological biomarkers of psychosis' onset remains unknown.

STUDY DESIGN

We present a longitudinal study of microRNA expression, measured in plasma by high-throughput sequencing at baseline and follow-up, in a prospective cohort of 81 UHR, 35 of whom developed psychosis at follow-up (converters). We combined supervised machine learning and differential graph analysis to assess the relative weighted contribution of each microRNA variation to the difference in outcome and identify outcome-specific networks. We then applied univariate models to the resulting microRNA variations common to both strategies, to interpret them as a function of demographic and clinical covariates.

STUDY RESULTS

We identified 207 microRNA variations that significantly contributed to the classification. The differential network analysis found 276 network-specific correlations of microRNA variations. The combination of both strategies identified 25 microRNAs, whose gene targets were overrepresented in cognition and schizophrenia genome-wide association studies findings. Interpretable univariate models further supported the relevance of miR-150-5p and miR-3191-5p variations in psychosis onset, independent of age, sex, cannabis use, and medication.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first longitudinal study of microRNA variation during conversion to psychosis, we combined 2 methodologically independent data-driven strategies to identify a dynamic epigenetic signature of the emergence of psychosis that is pathophysiologically relevant.

Unveiling the potential of machine learning in schizophrenia diagnosis: A meta-analytic study of task-based neuroimaging data

The emergence of machine learning (ML) techniques has opened up new avenues for identifying biomarkers associated with schizophrenia (SCZ) using task-related fMRI (t-fMRI) designs. To evaluate the effectiveness of this approach, we conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis of 31 t-fMRI studies using a bivariate model. Our findings revealed a high overall sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.82 for t-fMRI studies. Notably, neuropsychological domains modulated the classification performance, with selective attention demonstrating a significantly higher specificity than working memory (β = 0.98, z = 2.11, P = 0.04). Studies involving older, chronic patients with SCZ reported higher sensitivity (P <0.015) and specificity (P <0.001) than those involving younger, first-episode patients or high-risk individuals for psychosis. Additionally, we found that the severity of negative symptoms was positively associated with the specificity of the classification model (β = 7.19, z = 2.20, P = 0.03). Taken together, these results support the potential of using task-based fMRI data in combination with machine learning techniques to identify biomarkers related to symptom outcomes in SCZ, providing a promising avenue for improving diagnostic accuracy and treatment efficacy. Future attempts to deploy ML classification should consider the factors of algorithm choice, data quality and quantity, as well as issues related to generalization.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging in schizophrenia: current evidence, methodological advances, limitations and future directions

Functional neuroimaging emerged with great promise and has provided fundamental insights into the neurobiology of schizophrenia. However, it has faced challenges and criticisms, most notably a lack of clinical translation. This paper provides a comprehensive review and critical summary of the literature on functional neuroimaging, in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), in schizophrenia. We begin by reviewing research on fMRI biomarkers in schizophrenia and the clinical high risk phase through a historical lens, moving from case-control regional brain activation to global connectivity and advanced analytical approaches, and more recent machine learning algorithms to identify predictive neuroimaging features. Findings from fMRI studies of negative symptoms as well as of neurocognitive and social cognitive deficits are then reviewed. Functional neural markers of these symptoms and deficits may represent promising treatment targets in schizophrenia. Next, we summarize fMRI research related to antipsychotic medication, psychotherapy and psychosocial interventions, and neurostimulation, including treatment response and resistance, therapeutic mechanisms, and treatment targeting. We also review the utility of fMRI and data-driven approaches to dissect the heterogeneity of schizophrenia, moving beyond case-control comparisons, as well as methodological considerations and advances, including consortia and precision fMRI. Lastly, limitations and future directions of research in the field are discussed. Our comprehensive review suggests that, in order for fMRI to be clinically useful in the care of patients with schizophrenia, research should address potentially actionable clinical decisions that are routine in schizophrenia treatment, such as which antipsychotic should be prescribed or whether a given patient is likely to have persistent functional impairment. The potential clinical utility of fMRI is influenced by and must be weighed against cost and accessibility factors. Future evaluations of the utility of fMRI in prognostic and treatment response studies may consider including a health economics analysis.

A novel diagnosis method for schizophrenia based on globus pallidus data

This research aims to diagnose schizophrenia with machine learning-based algorithms. Bayesian neural network, logistic regression, decision tree, k-nearest neighbor, and gaussian kernel classification techniques are investigated to diagnose schizophrenia with data from 125 persons. This study showed that left lateral ventricles and left globus pallidus volumes and their percentages in the brain were significantly lower than HCs in FEP patients. Using brain volumes, we were able to diagnose FEP with an accuracy of 73.6 % via logistic regression and with an accuracy of 86.4 % using the SVM kernel classifier method. Therefore, brain volumes can be used to diagnose FEP with the SVM kernel classifier method.

Single-label machine learning classification revealed some hidden but inter-related causes of five psychotic disorder diseases

Psychotic disorder diseases (PDD) or mental illnesses are group of illnesses that affect the minds and impair the cognitive ability, retard emotional ability and obstruct the process of communication and relationship with others and are characterized by delusions, hallucinations and disoriented or disordered pattern of thinking. Prognosis of PDD is not sufficient because of the nature of the diseases and as such adequate form of diagnosis is required to detect, manage and treat the illness. This paper applied the single-label classification (SLC) machine learning approach in mining of electronic health records of people with PDD in Nigeria using eleven independent (demographic) variables and five PDD as target variables. The five PDDs are Insomnia, Schizophrenia, Minimal Brain dysfunction (MBD), which is also known as Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Vascular Dementia (VD) and Bipolar Disorder (BD). The aim of using SLC is that it would be easier to detect some PDDs that are related to each other without the loss of information, which is a plus over multi-label classification (MLC). ReliefF algorithm was used at each experiment to precipitate the order of importance of the independent variables and redundant variables were excluded from the analysis. The order of the variables in feature selection was matched with feature importance after the classifications and quantified using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. The data was divided into: 70% for training and 30% for testing. Four new performance metrics adapted from the root mean square (RMSE) were proposed and used to measure the differences between the performance results of the 10 Machine learning models in terms of the training and testing and secondly, feature and without feature selection. The new metrics are close to zero which is an indication that the use of feature selection and cross validation may not greatly affects the accuracy of the SLC. When the PDDs are included as predictors for classifying others, there was a tremendous improvement as revealed by the four new metrics for classification accuracy (CA), precision and recall. Analysis of variance showed the four different metrics differs significantly for classification accuracy (CA) and precision. However, there were no significant difference between the CA and precision when the duo are compared together across the four evaluation metrics at p value less than 0.05.

Dissecting Psychiatric Heterogeneity and Comorbidity with Core Region-Based Machine Learning

Machine learning approaches are increasingly being applied to neuroimaging data from patients with psychiatric disorders to extract brain-based features for diagnosis and prognosis. The goal of this review is to discuss recent practices for evaluating machine learning applications to obsessive-compulsive and related disorders and to advance a novel strategy of building machine learning models based on a set of core brain regions for better performance, interpretability, and generalizability. Specifically, we argue that a core set of co-altered brain regions (namely 'core regions') comprising areas central to the underlying psychopathology enables the efficient construction of a predictive model to identify distinct symptom dimensions/clusters in individual patients. Hypothesis-driven and data-driven approaches are further introduced showing how core regions are identified from the entire brain. We demonstrate a broadly applicable roadmap for leveraging this core set-based strategy to accelerate the pursuit of neuroimaging-based markers for diagnosis and prognosis in a variety of psychiatric disorders.

A meta-analysis and systematic review of single vs. multimodal neuroimaging techniques in the classification of psychosis

BACKGROUND

Psychotic disorders are characterized by structural and functional abnormalities in brain networks. Neuroimaging techniques map and characterize such abnormalities using unique features (e.g., structural integrity, coactivation). However, it is unclear if a specific method, or a combination of modalities, is particularly effective in identifying differences in brain networks of someone with a psychotic disorder.

METHODS

A systematic meta-analysis evaluated machine learning classification of schizophrenia spectrum disorders in comparison to healthy control participants using various neuroimaging modalities (i.e., T1-weighted imaging (T1), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), resting state functional connectivity (rs-FC), or some combination (multimodal)). Criteria for manuscript inclusion included whole-brain analyses and cross-validation to provide a complete picture regarding the predictive ability of large-scale brain systems in psychosis. For this meta-analysis, we searched Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, PsychInfo, Google Scholar, and Web of Science published between inception and March 13th 2023. Prediction results were averaged for studies using the same dataset, but parallel analyses were run that included studies with pooled sample across many datasets. We assessed bias through funnel plot asymmetry. A bivariate regression model determined whether differences in imaging modality, demographics, and preprocessing methods moderated classification. Separate models were run for studies with internal prediction (via cross-validation) and external prediction.

RESULTS

93 studies were identified for quantitative review (30 T1, 9 DTI, 40 rs-FC, and 14 multimodal). As a whole, all modalities reliably differentiated those with schizophrenia spectrum disorders from controls (OR = 2.64 (95%CI = 2.33 to 2.95)). However, classification was relatively similar across modalities: no differences were seen across modalities in the classification of independent internal data, and a small advantage was seen for rs-FC studies relative to T1 studies in classification in external datasets. We found large amounts of heterogeneity across results resulting in significant signs of bias in funnel plots and Egger's tests. Results remained similar, however, when studies were restricted to those with less heterogeneity, with continued small advantages for rs-FC relative to structural measures. Notably, in all cases, no significant differences were seen between multimodal and unimodal approaches, with rs-FC and unimodal studies reporting largely overlapping classification performance. Differences in demographics and analysis or denoising were not associated with changes in classification scores.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that neuroimaging approaches have promise in the classification of psychosis. Interestingly, at present most modalities perform similarly in the classification of psychosis, with slight advantages for rs-FC relative to structural modalities in some specific cases. Notably, results differed substantially across studies, with suggestions of biased effect sizes, particularly highlighting the need for more studies using external prediction and large sample sizes. Adopting more rigorous and systematized standards will add significant value toward understanding and treating this critical population.

Brain morphometric features predict medication response in youth with bipolar disorder: a prospective randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Identification of treatment-specific predictors of drug therapies for bipolar disorder (BD) is important because only about half of individuals respond to any specific medication. However, medication response in pediatric BD is variable and not well predicted by clinical characteristics.

METHODS

A total of 121 youth with early course BD (acute manic/mixed episode) were prospectively recruited and randomized to 6 weeks of double-blind treatment with quetiapine (n = 71) or lithium (n = 50). Participants completed structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline before treatment and 1 week after treatment initiation, and brain morphometric features were extracted for each individual based on MRI scans. Positive antimanic treatment response at week 6 was defined as an over 50% reduction of Young Mania Rating Scale scores from baseline. Two-stage deep learning prediction model was established to distinguish responders and non-responders based on different feature sets.

RESULTS

Pre-treatment morphometry and morphometric changes occurring during the first week can both independently predict treatment outcome of quetiapine and lithium with balanced accuracy over 75% (all p < 0.05). Combining brain morphometry at baseline and week 1 allows prediction with the highest balanced accuracy (quetiapine: 83.2% and lithium: 83.5%). Predictions in the quetiapine and lithium group were found to be driven by different morphometric patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings demonstrate that pre-treatment morphometric measures and acute brain morphometric changes can serve as medication response predictors in pediatric BD. Brain morphometric features may provide promising biomarkers for developing biologically-informed treatment outcome prediction and patient stratification tools for BD treatment development.

A tablet-based quantitative assessment of manual dexterity for detection of early psychosis

Background

We performed a pilot study on whether tablet-based measures of manual dexterity can provide behavioral markers for detection of first-episode psychosis (FEP), and whether cortical excitability/inhibition was altered in FEP.

Methods

Behavioral and neurophysiological testing was undertaken in persons diagnosed with FEP (N = 20), schizophrenia (SCZ, N = 20), autism spectrum disorder (ASD, N = 20), and in healthy control subjects (N = 20). Five tablet tasks assessed different motor and cognitive functions: Finger Recognition for effector (finger) selection and mental rotation, Rhythm Tapping for temporal control, Sequence Tapping for control/memorization of motor sequences, Multi Finger Tapping for finger individuation, and Line Tracking for visuomotor control. Discrimination of FEP (from other groups) based on tablet-based measures was compared to discrimination through clinical neurological soft signs (NSS). Cortical excitability/inhibition, and cerebellar brain inhibition were assessed with transcranial magnetic stimulation.

Results

Compared to controls, FEP patients showed slower reaction times and higher errors in Finger Recognition, and more variability in Rhythm Tapping. Variability in Rhythm Tapping showed highest specificity for the identification of FEP patients compared to all other groups (FEP vs. ASD/SCZ/Controls; 75% sensitivity, 90% specificity, AUC = 0.83) compared to clinical NSS (95% sensitivity, 22% specificity, AUC = 0.49). Random Forest analysis confirmed FEP discrimination vs. other groups based on dexterity variables (100% sensitivity, 85% specificity, balanced accuracy = 92%). The FEP group had reduced short-latency intra-cortical inhibition (but similar excitability) compared to controls, SCZ, and ASD. Cerebellar inhibition showed a non-significant tendency to be weaker in FEP.

Conclusion

FEP patients show a distinctive pattern of dexterity impairments and weaker cortical inhibition. Easy-to-use tablet-based measures of manual dexterity capture neurological deficits in FEP and are promising markers for detection of FEP in clinical practice.

Brain morphometry points to emerging patterns of psychosis, depression, and anxiety vulnerability over a 2-year period in childhood

BACKGROUND

Gray matter morphometry studies have lent seminal insights into the etiology of mental illness. Existing research has primarily focused on adults and then, typically on a single disorder. Examining brain characteristics in late childhood, when the brain is preparing to undergo significant adolescent reorganization and various forms of serious psychopathology are just first emerging, may allow for a unique and highly important perspective of overlapping and unique pathogenesis.

METHODS

A total of 8645 youth were recruited as part of the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development study. Magnetic resonance imaging scans were collected, and psychotic-like experiences (PLEs), depressive, and anxiety symptoms were assessed three times over a 2-year period. Cortical thickness, surface area, and subcortical volume were used to predict baseline symptomatology and symptom progression over time.

RESULTS

Some features could possibly signal common vulnerability, predicting progression across forms of psychopathology (e.g. superior frontal and middle temporal regions). However, there was a specific predictive value for emerging PLEs (lateral occipital and precentral thickness), anxiety (parietal thickness/area and cingulate), and depression (e.g. parahippocampal and inferior temporal).

CONCLUSION

Findings indicate common and distinct patterns of vulnerability for varying forms of psychopathology are present during late childhood, before the adolescent reorganization, and have direct relevance for informing novel conceptual models along with early prevention and intervention efforts.

Methodological and Quality Flaws in the Use of Artificial Intelligence in Mental Health Research: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Artificial intelligence (AI) is giving rise to a revolution in medicine and health care. Mental health conditions are highly prevalent in many countries, and the COVID-19 pandemic has increased the risk of further erosion of the mental well-being in the population. Therefore, it is relevant to assess the current status of the application of AI toward mental health research to inform about trends, gaps, opportunities, and challenges.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to perform a systematic overview of AI applications in mental health in terms of methodologies, data, outcomes, performance, and quality.

METHODS

A systematic search in PubMed, Scopus, IEEE Xplore, and Cochrane databases was conducted to collect records of use cases of AI for mental health disorder studies from January 2016 to November 2021. Records were screened for eligibility if they were a practical implementation of AI in clinical trials involving mental health conditions. Records of AI study cases were evaluated and categorized by the International Classification of Diseases 11th Revision (ICD-11). Data related to trial settings, collection methodology, features, outcomes, and model development and evaluation were extracted following the CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) guideline. Further, evaluation of risk of bias is provided.

RESULTS

A total of 429 nonduplicated records were retrieved from the databases and 129 were included for a full assessment-18 of which were manually added. The distribution of AI applications in mental health was found unbalanced between ICD-11 mental health categories. Predominant categories were Depressive disorders (n=70) and Schizophrenia or other primary psychotic disorders (n=26). Most interventions were based on randomized controlled trials (n=62), followed by prospective cohorts (n=24) among observational studies. AI was typically applied to evaluate quality of treatments (n=44) or stratify patients into subgroups and clusters (n=31). Models usually applied a combination of questionnaires and scales to assess symptom severity using electronic health records (n=49) as well as medical images (n=33). Quality assessment revealed important flaws in the process of AI application and data preprocessing pipelines. One-third of the studies (n=56) did not report any preprocessing or data preparation. One-fifth of the models were developed by comparing several methods (n=35) without assessing their suitability in advance and a small proportion reported external validation (n=21). Only 1 paper reported a second assessment of a previous AI model. Risk of bias and transparent reporting yielded low scores due to a poor reporting of the strategy for adjusting hyperparameters, coefficients, and the explainability of the models. International collaboration was anecdotal (n=17) and data and developed models mostly remained private (n=126).

CONCLUSIONS

These significant shortcomings, alongside the lack of information to ensure reproducibility and transparency, are indicative of the challenges that AI in mental health needs to face before contributing to a solid base for knowledge generation and for being a support tool in mental health management.

Effects of randomness in the development of machine learning models in neuroimaging studies of schizophrenia

Numerous studies have used machine learning with neuroimaging data for identifying individuals with a schizophrenia diagnosis. However, inconsistent results have limited the ability of the psychiatric community to objectively judge and accept the value of this approach. One factor that has contributed to the inconsistency, but has long been ignored, is randomness in the practice of machine learning. This is manifest when executing the same machine learning pipeline multiple times on the same dataset but getting different results. In the current study, a dataset of anatomical MRI scans from 158 patients with first-episode medication-naïve schizophrenia and 166 matched controls was used to investigate the effect of randomness on classifier performance estimates under different algorithm complexity and data splitting ratios. The maximum discriminatory accuracy that could be reached was 62.6 % ± 4.7 % (43.5 %-79.3 %) obtained when using extra-trees classifiers without feature normalization. Regions contributing to discrimination were located at bilateral temporal lobes and right frontal lobe. The results show that randomness has a significant impact on the precision of model performance estimates, especially when the size of test set is small. Current neuroimaging feature engineering combined with machine learning still falls short of being able to make diagnoses in the clinical context, but has value in revealing patterns of regional brain alteration associated with the illness. The current results indicate that effects of randomness on model performance should be reported and considered in interpreting model utility and it is necessary to evaluate models on large test sets to obtain valid estimates of model performance.

Macroscale EEG characteristics in antipsychotic-naïve patients with first-episode psychosis and healthy controls

Electroencephalography in patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) may contribute to the diagnosis and treatment response prediction. Findings in the literature vary due to small sample sizes, medication effects, and variable illness duration. We studied macroscale resting-state EEG characteristics of antipsychotic naïve patients with FEP. We tested (1) for differences between FEP patients and controls, (2) if EEG could be used to classify patients as FEP, and (3) if EEG could be used to predict treatment response to antipsychotic medication. In total, we studied EEG recordings of 62 antipsychotic-naïve patients with FEP and 106 healthy controls. Spectral power, phase-based and amplitude-based functional connectivity, and macroscale network characteristics were analyzed, resulting in 60 EEG variables across four frequency bands. Positive and Negative Symptom Scale (PANSS) were assessed at baseline and 4-6 weeks follow-up after treatment with amisulpride or aripiprazole. Mann-Whitney U tests, a random forest (RF) classifier and RF regression were used for statistical analysis. Our study found that at baseline, FEP patients did not differ from controls in any of the EEG characteristics. A random forest classifier showed chance-level discrimination between patients and controls. The random forest regression explained 23% variance in positive symptom reduction after treatment in the patient group. In conclusion, in this largest antipsychotic- naïve EEG sample to date in FEP patients, we found no differences in macroscale EEG characteristics between patients with FEP and healthy controls. However, these EEG characteristics did show predictive value for positive symptom reduction following treatment with antipsychotic medication.

Acquired Pedophilia: international Delphi-method-based consensus guidelines

Idiopathic and acquired pedophilia are two different disorders with two different etiologies. However, the differential diagnosis is still very difficult, as the behavioral indicators used to discriminate the two forms of pedophilia are underexplored, and clinicians are still devoid of clear guidelines describing the clinical and neuroscientific investigations suggested to help them with this difficult task. Furthermore, the consequences of misdiagnosis are not known, and a consensus regarding the legal consequences for the two kinds of offenders is still lacking. The present study used the Delphi method to reach a global consensus on the following six topics: behavioral indicators/red flags helpful for differential diagnosis; neurological conditions potentially leading to acquired pedophilia; neuroscientific investigations important for a correct understanding of the case; consequences of misdiagnosis; legal consequences; and issues and future perspectives. An international and multidisciplinary board of scientists and clinicians took part in the consensus statements as Delphi members. The Delphi panel comprised 52 raters with interdisciplinary competencies, including neurologists, psychiatrists, neuropsychologists, forensic psychologists, expert in ethics, etc. The final recommendations consisted of 63 statements covering the six different topics. The current study is the first expert consensus on a delicate topic such as pedophilia. Important exploitable consensual recommendations that can ultimately be of immediate use by clinicians to help with differential diagnosis and plan and guide therapeutic interventions are described, as well as future perspectives for researchers.

Sexual offenses and the brain

Sexual offenses are a great concern worldwide due to the devastating physical and psychological consequences the victims of such crimes often experience. It is an important task to investigate potential mechanisms that may underlie sexual offending and predispose an individual for such antisocial behavior. Advanced techniques in neuroscience are increasingly used to uncover biomarkers in psychiatric disorders and organic brain disease. As this type of research is flourishing, preliminary studies with the aim to explore the neural basis of sex offenders have started to appear. To this purpose, researchers began to study the brain's structural and functional changes and the neurocognitive profiles of sex offenders, in comparison to nonoffenders and nonsex offenders, or among different subtypes of sex offenders. Most of the research to date has focused on pedophilia, with some inconsistent findings, which hampers the translation of the results into the forensic and clinical context. Any attempt to increase convergent evidence may profit from the harmonization of data analysis and avoidance of methodological inconsistencies, which can account for the different results across studies. Today, uncovering the neural basis of sex offences has to become a priority, not only for clinical interventions, but might also be important knowledge for crime prevention.

Patterns of risk-Using machine learning and structural neuroimaging to identify pedophilic offenders

Background

Child sexual abuse (CSA) has become a focal point for lawmakers, law enforcement, and mental health professionals. With high prevalence rates around the world and far-reaching, often chronic, individual, and societal implications, CSA and its leading risk factor, pedophilia, have been well investigated. This has led to a wide range of clinical tools and actuarial instruments for diagnosis and risk assessment regarding CSA. However, the neurobiological underpinnings of pedosexual behavior, specifically regarding hands-on pedophilic offenders (PO), remain elusive. Such biomarkers for PO individuals could potentially improve the early detection of high-risk PO individuals and enhance efforts to prevent future CSA.

Aim

To use machine learning and MRI data to identify PO individuals.

Methods

From a single-center male cohort of 14 PO individuals and 15 matched healthy control (HC) individuals, we acquired diffusion tensor imaging data (anisotropy, diffusivity, and fiber tracking) in literature-based regions of interest (prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate cortex, amygdala, and corpus callosum). We trained a linear support vector machine to discriminate between PO and HC individuals using these WM microstructure data. Post hoc, we investigated the PO model decision scores with respect to sociodemographic (age, education, and IQ) and forensic characteristics (psychopathy, sexual deviance, and future risk of sexual violence) in the PO subpopulation. We assessed model specificity in an external cohort of 53 HC individuals.

Results

The classifier discriminated PO from HC individuals with a balanced accuracy of 75.5% (sensitivity = 64.3%, specificity = 86.7%, P ₅₀₀₀ = 0.018) and an out-of-sample specificity to correctly identify HC individuals of 94.3%. The predictive brain pattern contained bilateral fractional anisotropy in the anterior cingulate cortex, diffusivity in the left amygdala, and structural prefrontal cortex-amygdala connectivity in both hemispheres. This brain pattern was associated with the number of previous child victims, the current stance on sexuality, and the professionally assessed risk of future sexual violent reoffending.

Conclusion

Aberrant white matter microstructure in the prefronto-temporo-limbic circuit could be a potential neurobiological correlate for PO individuals at high-risk of reoffending with CSA. Although preliminary and exploratory at this point, our findings highlight the general potential of MRI-based biomarkers and particularly WM microstructure patterns for future CSA risk assessment and preventive efforts.

Radiomic features of gray matter in never-treated first-episode schizophrenia

Alterations of radiomic features (RFs) in gray matter are observed in schizophrenia, of which the results may be limited by small study samples and confounding effects of drug therapies. We tested for RFs alterations of gray matter in never-treated first-episode schizophrenia (NT-FES) patients and examined their associations with known gene expression profiles. RFs were examined in the first sample with 197 NT-FES and 178 healthy controls (HCs) and validated in the second independent sample (90 NT-FES and 74 HCs). One-year follow-up data were available from 87 patients to determine whether RFs were associated with treatment outcomes. Associations between identified RFs in NT-FES and gene expression profiles were evaluated. NT-FES exhibited alterations of 30 RFs, with the greatest involvement of microstructural heterogeneity followed by measures of brain region shape. The identified RFs were mainly located in the central executive network, frontal-temporal network, and limbic system. Two baseline RFs with the involvement of microstructural heterogeneity predicted treatment response with moderate accuracy (78% for the first sample, 70% for the second sample). Exploratory analyses indicated that RF alterations were spatially related to the expression of schizophrenia risk genes. In summary, the present findings link brain abnormalities in schizophrenia with molecular features and treatment response.

Consistent brain structural abnormalities and multisite individualised classification of schizophrenia using deep neural networks

BACKGROUND

Previous analyses of grey and white matter volumes have reported that schizophrenia is associated with structural changes. Deep learning is a data-driven approach that can capture highly compact hierarchical non-linear relationships among high-dimensional features, and therefore can facilitate the development of clinical tools for making a more accurate and earlier diagnosis of schizophrenia.

AIMS

To identify consistent grey matter abnormalities in patients with schizophrenia, 662 people with schizophrenia and 613 healthy controls were recruited from eight centres across China, and the data from these independent sites were used to validate deep-learning classifiers.

METHOD

We used a prospective image-based meta-analysis of whole-brain voxel-based morphometry. We also automatically differentiated patients with schizophrenia from healthy controls using combined grey matter, white matter and cerebrospinal fluid volumetric features, incorporated a deep neural network approach on an individual basis, and tested the generalisability of the classification models using independent validation sites.

RESULTS

We found that statistically reliable schizophrenia-related grey matter abnormalities primarily occurred in regions that included the superior temporal gyrus extending to the temporal pole, insular cortex, orbital and middle frontal cortices, middle cingulum and thalamus. Evaluated using leave-one-site-out cross-validation, the performance of the classification of schizophrenia achieved by our findings from eight independent research sites were: accuracy, 77.19-85.74%; sensitivity, 75.31-89.29% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.797-0.909.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that, by using deep-learning techniques, multidimensional neuroanatomical changes in schizophrenia are capable of robustly discriminating patients with schizophrenia from healthy controls, findings which could facilitate clinical diagnosis and treatment in schizophrenia.

Predictive models for social functioning in healthy young adults: A machine learning study integrating neuroanatomical, cognitive, and behavioral data

Poor social functioning is an emerging public health problem associated with physical and mental health consequences. Developing prognostic tools is critical to identify individuals at risk for poor social functioning and guide interventions. We aimed to inform prediction models of social functioning by evaluating models relying on bio-behavioral data using machine learning. With data from the Human Connectome Project Healthy Young Adult sample (age 22-35, N = 1,101), we built Support Vector Regression models to estimate social functioning from variable sets of brain morphology to behavior with increasing complexity: 1) brain-only model, 2) brain-cognition model, 3) cognition-behavioral model, and 4) combined brain-cognition-behavioral model. Predictive accuracy of each model was assessed and the importance of individual variables for model performance was determined. The combined and cognition-behavioral models significantly predicted social functioning, whereas the brain-only and brain-cognition models did not. Negative affect, psychological wellbeing, extraversion, withdrawal, and cortical thickness of the rostral middle-frontal and superior-temporal regions were the most important predictors in the combined model. Results demonstrate that social functioning can be accurately predicted using machine learning methods. Behavioral markers may be more significant predictors of social functioning than brain measures for healthy young adults and may represent important leverage points for preventative intervention.

A morphological study of schizophrenia with magnetic resonance imaging, advanced analytics, and machine learning

We have performed a morphological analysis of patients with schizophrenia and compared them with healthy controls. Our analysis includes the use of publicly available automated extraction tools to assess regional cortical thickness (inclusive of within region cortical thickness variability) from structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), to characterize group-wise abnormalities associated with schizophrenia based on a publicly available dataset. We have also performed a correlation analysis between the automatically extracted biomarkers and a variety of patient clinical variables available. Finally, we also present the results of a machine learning analysis. Results demonstrate regional cortical thickness abnormalities in schizophrenia. We observed a correlation (rho = 0.474) between patients’ depression and the average cortical thickness of the right medial orbitofrontal cortex. Our leading machine learning technology evaluated was the support vector machine with stepwise feature selection, yielding a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 74%, based on regional brain measurements, including from the insula, superior frontal, caudate, calcarine sulcus, gyrus rectus, and rostral middle frontal regions. These results imply that advanced analytic techniques combining MRI with automated biomarker extraction can be helpful in characterizing patients with schizophrenia.

Going deep into schizophrenia with artificial intelligence

Despite years of research, the mechanisms governing the onset, relapse, symptomatology, and treatment of schizophrenia (SZ) remain elusive. The lack of appropriate analytic tools to deal with the heterogeneity and complexity of SZ may be one of the reasons behind this situation. Deep learning, a subfield of artificial intelligence (AI) inspired by the nervous system, has recently provided an accessible way of modeling and analyzing complex, high-dimensional, nonlinear systems. The unprecedented accuracy of deep learning algorithms in classification and prediction tasks has revolutionized a wide range of scientific fields and is rapidly permeating SZ research. Deep learning has the potential of becoming a valuable aid for clinicians in the prediction, diagnosis, and treatment of SZ, especially in combination with principles from Bayesian statistics. Furthermore, deep learning could become a powerful tool for uncovering the mechanisms underlying SZ thanks to a growing number of techniques designed for improving model interpretability and causal reasoning. The purpose of this article is to introduce SZ researchers to the field of deep learning and review its latest applications in SZ research. In general, existing studies have yielded impressive results in classification and outcome prediction tasks. However, methodological concerns related to the assessment of model performance in several studies, the widespread use of small training datasets, and the little clinical value of some models suggest that some of these results should be taken with caution.

Graph Convolutional Networks Reveal Network-Level Functional Dysconnectivity in Schizophrenia

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Schizophrenia is increasingly understood as a disorder of brain dysconnectivity. Recently, graph-based approaches such as graph convolutional network (GCN) have been leveraged to explore complex pairwise similarities in imaging features among brain regions, which can reveal abstract and complex relationships within brain networks.

STUDY DESIGN

We used GCN to investigate topological abnormalities of functional brain networks in schizophrenia. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data were acquired from 505 individuals with schizophrenia and 907 controls across 6 sites. Whole-brain functional connectivity matrix was extracted for each individual. We examined the performance of GCN relative to support vector machine (SVM), extracted the most salient regions contributing to both classification models, investigated the topological profiles of identified salient regions, and explored correlation between nodal topological properties of each salient region and severity of symptom.

STUDY RESULTS

GCN enabled nominally higher classification accuracy (85.8%) compared with SVM (80.9%). Based on the saliency map, the most discriminative brain regions were located in a distributed network including striatal areas (ie, putamen, pallidum, and caudate) and the amygdala. Significant differences in the nodal efficiency of bilateral putamen and pallidum between patients and controls and its correlations with negative symptoms were detected in post hoc analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates that GCN allows classification of schizophrenia at the individual level with high accuracy, indicating a promising direction for detection of individual patients with schizophrenia. Functional topological deficits of striatal areas may represent a focal neural deficit of negative symptomatology in schizophrenia.

Bridging structural MRI with cognitive function for individual level classification of early psychosis via deep learning

INTRODUCTION

Recent efforts have been made to apply machine learning and deep learning approaches to the automated classification of schizophrenia using structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI) at the individual level. However, these approaches are less accurate on early psychosis (EP) since there are mild structural brain changes at early stage. As cognitive impairments is one main feature in psychosis, in this study we apply a multi-task deep learning framework using sMRI with inclusion of cognitive assessment to facilitate the classification of patients with EP from healthy individuals.

METHOD

Unlike previous studies, we used sMRI as the direct input to perform EP classifications and cognitive estimations. The proposed deep learning model does not require time-consuming volumetric or surface based analysis and can provide additionally cognition predictions. Experiments were conducted on an in-house data set with 77 subjects and a public ABCD HCP-EP data set with 164 subjects.

RESULTS

We achieved 74.9 ± 4.3% five-fold cross-validated accuracy and an area under the curve of 71.1 ± 4.1% on EP classification with the inclusion of cognitive estimations.

DISCUSSION

We reveal the feasibility of automated cognitive estimation using sMRI by deep learning models, and also demonstrate the implicit adoption of cognitive measures as additional information to facilitate EP classifications from healthy controls.

The Relationship Between Grey Matter Volume and Clinical and Functional Outcomes in People at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

Objective

To examine the association between baseline alterations in grey matter volume (GMV) and clinical and functional outcomes in people at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis.

Methods

265 CHR individuals and 92 healthy controls were recruited as part of a prospective multi-center study. After a baseline assessment using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), participants were followed for at least two years to determine clinical and functional outcomes, including transition to psychosis (according to the Comprehensive Assessment of an At Risk Mental State, CAARMS), level of functioning (according to the Global Assessment of Functioning), and symptomatic remission (according to the CAARMS). GMV was measured in selected cortical and subcortical regions of interest (ROI) based on previous studies (ie orbitofrontal gyrus, cingulate gyrus, gyrus rectus, inferior temporal gyrus, parahippocampal gyrus, striatum, and hippocampus). Using voxel-based morphometry, we analysed the relationship between GMV and clinical and functional outcomes.

Results

Within the CHR sample, a poor functional outcome (GAF < 65) was associated with relatively lower GMV in the right striatum at baseline (P < .047 after Family Wise Error correction). There were no significant associations between baseline GMV and either subsequent remission or transition to psychosis.

Conclusions

In CHR individuals, lower striatal GMV was associated with a poor level of overall functioning at follow-up. This finding was not related to effects of antipsychotic or antidepressant medication. The failure to replicate previous associations between GMV and later psychosis onset, despite studying a relatively large sample, is consistent with the findings of recent large-scale multi-center studies.

Cortical thickness abnormalities in patients with first episode psychosis: a meta-analysis of psychoradiologic studies and replication in an independent sample

BACKGROUND

Abnormalities of cortical thickness (CTh) in patients with their first episode psychosis (FEP) have been frequently reported, but findings are inconsistent.

OBJECTIVE

To define the most consistent CTh changes in patients with FEP by meta-analysis of published whole-brain studies.

METHODS

The meta-analysis used seed-based d mapping (SDM) software to obtain the most prominent regional CTh changes in FEP, and meta-regression analyses to explore the effects of demographics and clinical characteristics. The meta-analysis results were verified in an independent sample of 142 FEP patients and 142 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (HCs), using both a vertex-wise and a region of interest analysis, with multiple comparisons correction.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis identified lower CTh in the right middle temporal cortex (MTC) extending to superior temporal cortex (STC), insula, and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in FEP compared with HCs. No significant correlations were identified between CTh alterations and demographic or clinical variables. These results were replicated in the independent dataset analysis.

CONCLUSION

This study identifies a robust pattern of cortical abnormalities in FEP and extends understanding of gray matter abnormalities and pathological mechanisms in FEP.

Computing schizophrenia: ethical challenges for machine learning in psychiatry

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) promise far-reaching improvements across medical care, not least within psychiatry. While to date no psychiatric application of ML constitutes standard clinical practice, it seems crucial to get ahead of these developments and address their ethical challenges early on. Following a short general introduction concerning ML in psychiatry, we do so by focusing on schizophrenia as a paradigmatic case. Based on recent research employing ML to further the diagnosis, treatment, and prediction of schizophrenia, we discuss three hypothetical case studies of ML applications with view to their ethical dimensions. Throughout this discussion, we follow the principlist framework by Tom Beauchamp and James Childress to analyse potential problems in detail. In particular, we structure our analysis around their principles of beneficence, non-maleficence, respect for autonomy, and justice. We conclude with a call for cautious optimism concerning the implementation of ML in psychiatry if close attention is paid to the particular intricacies of psychiatric disorders and its success evaluated based on tangible clinical benefit for patients.

Developing and Validating an Individualized Clinical Prediction Model to Forecast Psychotic Recurrence in Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorders: Electronic Health Record Cohort Study

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPDs) include short-lived psychotic episodes with a high probability of developing psychotic recurrences. Clinical care for ATPD is currently limited by the inability to predict outcomes. Real-world electronic health record (EHR)-based retrospective cohort study STROBE/RECORD compliant included all individuals accessing the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust between 2006 and 2017 and receiving a first diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10). After imputing missing data, stepwise and LASSO Cox regression methods employing a priori predictors (n = 23) were compared to develop and internally validate an individualized risk prediction model to forecast the risk of psychotic recurrences following TRIPOD guidelines. The primary outcome was prognostic accuracy (area under the curve [AUC]). 3018 ATPD individuals were included (average age = 33.75 years, 52.7% females). Over follow-up (average 1042 ± 1011 days, up to 8 years) there were 1160 psychotic recurrences (events). Stepwise (n = 12 predictors) and LASSO (n = 17 predictors) regression methods yielded comparable prognostic accuracy, with an events per variable ratio >100 for both models. Both models showed an internally validated adequate prognostic accuracy from 4 years follow-up (AUC 0.70 for both models) and good calibration. A refined model was adapted in view of the new ICD-11 criteria on 307 subjects with polymorphic ATPD, showing fair prognostic accuracy at 4 years (AUC: stepwise 0.68; LASSO 0.70). This study presents the first clinically based prediction model internally validated to adequately predict long-term psychotic recurrence in individuals with ATPD. The model can be automatable in EHRs, supporting further external validations and refinements to improve its prognostic accuracy.

Multisite schizophrenia classification by integrating structural magnetic resonance imaging data with polygenic risk score

Previous brain structural magnetic resonance imaging studies reported that patients with schizophrenia have brain structural abnormalities, which have been used to discriminate schizophrenia patients from normal controls. However, most existing studies identified schizophrenia patients at a single site, and the genetic features closely associated with highly heritable schizophrenia were not considered. In this study, we performed standardized feature extraction on brain structural magnetic resonance images and on genetic data to separate schizophrenia patients from normal controls. A total of 1010 participants, 508 schizophrenia patients and 502 normal controls, were recruited from 8 independent sites across China. Classification experiments were carried out using different machine learning methods and input features. We tested a support vector machine, logistic regression, and an ensemble learning strategy using 3 feature sets of interest: (1) imaging features: gray matter volume, (2) genetic features: polygenic risk scores, and (3) a fusion of imaging features and genetic features. The performance was assessed by leave-one-site-out cross-validation. Finally, some important brain and genetic features were identified. We found that the models with both imaging and genetic features as input performed better than models with either alone. The average accuracy of the classification models with the best performance in the cross-validation was 71.6%. The genetic feature that measured the cumulative risk of the genetic variants most associated with schizophrenia contributed the most to the classification. Our work took the first step toward considering both structural brain alterations and genome-wide genetic factors in a large-scale multisite schizophrenia classification. Our findings may provide insight into the underlying pathophysiology and risk mechanisms of schizophrenia.

Cerebello-Thalamo-Cortical Hyperconnectivity Classifies Patients and Predicts Long-Term Treatment Outcome in First-Episode Schizophrenia

It has previously been shown that cerebello-thalamo-cortical (CTC) hyperconnectivity is likely a state-independent neural signature for psychosis. However, the potential clinical utility of this change has not yet been evaluated. Here, using fMRI and clinical data acquired from 214 untreated first-episode patients with schizophrenia (62 of whom were clinically followed-up at least once at the 12th and 24th months after treatment initiation) and 179 healthy controls, we investigated whether CTC hyperconnectivity would serve as an individualized biomarker for diagnostic classification and prediction of long-term treatment outcome. Cross-validated LASSO regression was conducted to estimate the accuracy of baseline CTC connectivity for patient-control classification, with the generalizability of classification performance tested in an independent sample including 42 untreated first-episode patients and 65 controls. Associations between baseline CTC connectivity and clinical outcomes were evaluated using linear mixed model and leave-one-out cross validation. We found significantly increased baseline CTC connectivity in patients (P = .01), which remained stable after treatment. Measures of CTC connectivity discriminated patients from controls with moderate classification accuracy (AUC = 0.68, P < .001), and the classification model had good generalizability in the independent sample (AUC = 0.70, P < .001). Higher CTC connectivity at baseline significantly predicted poorer long-term symptom reduction in negative symptoms (R = 0.31, P = .01) but not positive or general symptoms. These findings provide initial evidence for the putative "CTC hyperconnectivity" anomaly as an individualized diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for schizophrenia, and highlight the potential of this measure in precision psychiatry.

The progression of disorder-specific brain pattern expression in schizophrenia over 9 years

Age plays a crucial role in the performance of schizophrenia vs. controls (SZ-HC) neuroimaging-based machine learning (ML) models as the accuracy of identifying first-episode psychosis from controls is poor compared to chronic patients. Resolving whether this finding reflects longitudinal progression in a disorder-specific brain pattern or a systematic but non-disorder-specific deviation from a normal brain aging (BA) trajectory in schizophrenia would help the clinical translation of diagnostic ML models. We trained two ML models on structural MRI data: an SZ-HC model based on 70 schizophrenia patients and 74 controls and a BA model (based on 561 healthy individuals, age range = 66 years). We then investigated the two models’ predictions in the naturalistic longitudinal Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC1966) following 29 schizophrenia and 61 controls for nine years. The SZ-HC model’s schizophrenia-specificity was further assessed by utilizing independent validation (62 schizophrenia, 95 controls) and depression samples (203 depression, 203 controls). We found better performance at the NFBC1966 follow-up (sensitivity = 75.9%, specificity = 83.6%) compared to the baseline (sensitivity = 58.6%, specificity = 86.9%). This finding resulted from progression in disorder-specific pattern expression in schizophrenia and was not explained by concomitant acceleration of brain aging. The disorder-specific pattern’s progression reflected longitudinal changes in cognition, outcomes, and local brain changes, while BA captured treatment-related and global brain alterations. The SZ-HC model was also generalizable to independent schizophrenia validation samples but classified depression as control subjects. Our research underlines the importance of taking account of longitudinal progression in a disorder-specific pattern in schizophrenia when developing ML classifiers for different age groups.

Prognostic Accuracy of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Adolescents: Prospective Real-World 5-Year Cohort Study

There is limited research in adolescents at risk for psychosis. The new Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition attenuated psychosis syndrome (DSM-5 APS) criteria have not been validated in this group. We conducted a RECORD-compliant, real-world, prospective, 5-year cohort study addressing clinical profile, transition to psychosis, and prognostic accuracy of DSM-5 APS in help-seeking inpatient/outpatient adolescents accessing Children and Adolescent Neuropsychiatric services at IRCCS Mondino Foundation (Pavia, Lombardy, Italy) between 2012 and 2019. About 243 adolescents (31 early-onset psychosis [EOP]; 110 meeting DSM-5 APS criteria, DSM-5 APS; 102 not meeting psychotic or DSM-5 APS criteria, non-APS) were included. At baseline, DSM-5 APS adolescents (aged 15.4 ± 1.6) had on average 2.3 comorbid disorders (higher than EOP/non-APS, P < .001). DSM-5 APS adolescents had an intermediate psychopathological profile between non-APS/EOP (P < .001) and worsen Clinical Global Impression-Severity than non-APS (P < .001). DSM-5 APS functioning was intermediate between non-APS and EOP. 39.1% of DSM-5 APS were treated with psychotropic drugs (average = 64 days); 53.6% received psychotherapy. Follow-up of DSM-5 APS and non-APS groups lasted 33 and 26 months, respectively (median). The cumulative risk of transition at 1-5 years was 13%, 17%, 24.2%, 26.8%, and 26.8% in the DSM-5 APS group, 0%, 0%, 3.2%, 3.2%, and 3.2% in the non-APS group. The 5-year prognostic accuracy of the DSM-5 APS in adolescent was adequate (area under the curve = 0.77; Harrell's C = 0.736, 95%CI 0.697-0.775), with high sensitivity (91.3%) and suboptimal specificity (63.2%). The DSM-5 APS diagnosis can be used to detect help-seeking adolescents at risk of psychosis and predict their long-term outcomes. Future research should consolidate these findings.

The relationship between cognitive deficits and impaired short-term functional outcome in clinical high-risk for psychosis participants: A machine learning and modelling approach

Poor functional outcomes are common in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P), but the contribution of cognitive deficits remains unclear. We examined the potential utility of cognitive variables in predictive models of functioning at baseline and follow-up with machine learning methods. Additional models fitted on baseline functioning variables were used as a benchmark to evaluate model performance. Data were available for 1) 146 CHR-P individuals of whom 118 completed a 6- and/or 12-month follow-up, 2) 47 participants not fulfilling CHR criteria (CHR-Ns) but displaying affective and substance use disorders and 3) 55 healthy controls (HCs). Predictors of baseline global assessment of functioning (GAF) scores were selected by L1-regularised least angle regression and then used to train classifiers to predict functional outcome in CHR-P individuals. In CHR-P participants, cognitive deficits together with clinical and functioning variables explained 41% of the variance in baseline GAF scores while cognitive variables alone explained 12%. These variables allowed classification of functional outcome with an average balanced accuracy (BAC) of 63% in both mixed- and cross-site models. However, higher accuracies (68%-70%) were achieved using classifiers fitted only on baseline functioning variables. Our findings suggest that cognitive deficits, alongside clinical and functioning variables, displayed robust relationships with impaired functioning in CHR-P participants at baseline and follow-up. Moreover, these variables allow for prediction of functional outcome. However, models based on baseline functioning variables showed a similar performance, highlighting the need to develop more accurate algorithms for predicting functional outcome in CHR-P participants.

Using Natural Language Processing on Electronic Health Records to Enhance Detection and Prediction of Psychosis Risk

BACKGROUND

Using novel data mining methods such as natural language processing (NLP) on electronic health records (EHRs) for screening and detecting individuals at risk for psychosis.

METHOD

The study included all patients receiving a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) NHS Foundation Trust between January 1, 2008, and July 28, 2018. Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-regularized Cox regression was used to refine and externally validate a refined version of a five-item individualized, transdiagnostic, clinically based risk calculator previously developed (Harrell's C = 0.79) and piloted for implementation. The refined version included 14 additional NLP-predictors: tearfulness, poor appetite, weight loss, insomnia, cannabis, cocaine, guilt, irritability, delusions, hopelessness, disturbed sleep, poor insight, agitation, and paranoia.

RESULTS

A total of 92 151 patients with a first index diagnosis of nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within the SLaM Trust were included in the derivation (n = 28 297) or external validation (n = 63 854) data sets. Mean age was 33.6 years, 50.7% were women, and 67.0% were of white race/ethnicity. Mean follow-up was 1590 days. The overall 6-year risk of psychosis in secondary mental health care was 3.4 (95% CI, 3.3-3.6). External validation indicated strong performance on unseen data (Harrell's C 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.86), an increase of 0.06 from the original model.

CONCLUSIONS

Using NLP on EHRs can considerably enhance the prognostic accuracy of psychosis risk calculators. This can help identify patients at risk of psychosis who require assessment and specialized care, facilitating earlier detection and potentially improving patient outcomes.

Deep learning based automatic diagnosis of first-episode psychosis, bipolar disorder and healthy controls

Neuroimaging data driven machine learning based predictive modeling and pattern recognition has been attracted strongly attention in biomedical sciences. Machine learning based diagnosis techniques are widely applied in diagnosis of neurological diseases. However, machine learning techniques are difficult to effectively extract deep information in neuroimaging data, resulting in low classification accuracy of mental illnesses. To address this problem, we propose a deep learning based automatic diagnosis first-episode psychosis (FEP), bipolar disorder (BD) and healthy controls (HC) method. Specifically, we design a convolutional neural network (CNN) framework to automatically diagnosis based on structural magnetic functional imaging (sMRI). Our dataset consists of 89 FEP patients, 40 BD patients and 83 HC. A three-way classifier (FEP vs. BD vs. HC) and three binary classifiers (FEP vs. BD, FEP vs. HC, BD vs. HC) are trained based on their gray matter volume images. Experiment results show that the performance of CNN-based method outperforms the classic classifiers both in two and three categories classification task. Our research reveals that abnormal gray matter volume is one of the main characteristics for discriminating FEP, BD and HC.

Deep learning applications for the classification of psychiatric disorders using neuroimaging data: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Deep learning (DL) methods have been increasingly applied to neuroimaging data to identify patients with psychiatric and neurological disorders. This review provides an overview of the different DL applications within psychiatry and compares DL model accuracy to standard machine learning (SML). Fifty-three articles were included for qualitative analysis, primarily investigating autism spectrum disorder (ASD; n = 22), schizophrenia (SZ; n = 22) and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD; n = 9). Thirty-two of the thirty-five studies that directly compared DL to SML reported a higher accuracy for DL. Only sixteen studies could be included in a meta-regression to quantitatively compare DL and SML performance. This showed a higher odds ratio for DL models, though the comparison attained significance only for ASD. Our results suggest that deep learning of neuroimaging data is a promising tool for the classification of individual psychiatric patients. However, it is not yet used to its full potential: most studies use pre-engineered features, whereas one of the main advantages of DL is its ability to learn representations of minimally processed data. Our current evaluation is limited by minimal reporting of performance measures to enable quantitative comparisons, and the restriction to ADHD, SZ and ASD as current research focusses on large publicly available datasets. To truly uncover the added value of DL, we need carefully designed comparisons of SML and DL models which are yet rarely performed.

Translational Application of a Neuro-Scientific Multi-Modal Approach Into Forensic Psychiatric Evaluation: Why and How?

A prominent body of literature indicates that insanity evaluations, which are intended to provide influential expert reports for judges to reach a decision "beyond any reasonable doubt," suffer from a low inter-rater reliability. This paper reviews the limitations of the classical approach to insanity evaluation and the criticisms to the introduction of neuro-scientific approach in court. Here, we explain why in our opinion these criticisms, that seriously hamper the translational implementation of neuroscience into the forensic setting, do not survive scientific scrutiny. Moreover, we discuss how the neuro-scientific multimodal approach may improve the inter-rater reliability in insanity evaluation. Critically, neuroscience does not aim to introduce a brain-based concept of insanity. Indeed, criteria for responsibility and insanity are and should remain clinical. Rather, following the falsificationist approach and the convergence of evidence principle, the neuro-scientific multimodal approach is being proposed as a way to improve reliability of insanity evaluation and to mitigate the influence of cognitive biases on the formulation of insanity opinions, with the final aim to reduce errors and controversies.

Machine Learning Aided Design and Prediction of Environmentally Friendly Rubberised Concrete

Not only can waste rubber enhance the properties of concrete (e.g., its dynamic damping and abrasion resistance capacity), its rational utilisation can also dramatically reduce environmental pollution and carbon footprint globally. This study is the world’s first to develop a novel machine learning-aided design and prediction of environmentally friendly concrete using waste rubber, which can drive sustainable development of infrastructure systems towards net-zero emission, which saves time and cost. In this study, artificial neuron networks (ANN) have been established to determine the design relationship between various concrete mix composites and their multiple mechanical properties simultaneously. Interestingly, it is found that almost all previous studies on the ANNs could only predict one kind of mechanical property. To enable multiple mechanical property predictions, ANN models with various architectural algorithms, hidden neurons and layers are built and tailored for benchmarking in this study. Comprehensively, all three hundred and fifty-three experimental data sets of rubberised concrete available in the open literature have been collected. In this study, the mechanical properties in focus consist of the compressive strength at day 7 (CS7), the compressive strength at day 28 (CS28), the flexural strength (FS), the tensile strength (TS) and the elastic modulus (EM). The optimal ANN architecture has been identified by customising and benchmarking the algorithms (Levenberg–Marquardt (LM), Bayesian Regularisation (BR) and Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG)), hidden layers (1–2) and hidden neurons (1–30). The performance of the optimal ANN architecture has been assessed by employing the mean squared error (MSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2). In addition, the prediction accuracy of the optimal ANN model has ben compared with that of the multiple linear regression (MLR).

Promises and pitfalls of deep neural networks in neuroimaging-based psychiatric research

By promising more accurate diagnostics and individual treatment recommendations, deep neural networks and in particular convolutional neural networks have advanced to a powerful tool in medical imaging. Here, we first give an introduction into methodological key concepts and resulting methodological promises including representation and transfer learning, as well as modelling domain-specific priors. After reviewing recent applications within neuroimaging-based psychiatric research, such as the diagnosis of psychiatric diseases, delineation of disease subtypes, normative modeling, and the development of neuroimaging biomarkers, we discuss current challenges. This includes for example the difficulty of training models on small, heterogeneous and biased data sets, the lack of validity of clinical labels, algorithmic bias, and the influence of confounding variables.

Identification of Children at Risk of Schizophrenia via Deep Learning and EEG Responses

The prospective identification of children likely to develop schizophrenia is a vital tool to support early interventions that can mitigate the risk of progression to clinical psychosis. Electroencephalographic (EEG) patterns from brain activity and deep learning techniques are valuable resources in achieving this identification. We propose automated techniques that can process raw EEG waveforms to identify children who may have an increased risk of schizophrenia compared to typically developing children. We also analyse abnormal features that remain during developmental follow-up over a period of   ∼ 4 years in children with a vulnerability to schizophrenia initially assessed when aged 9 to 12 years. EEG data from participants were captured during the recording of a passive auditory oddball paradigm. We undertake a holistic study to identify brain abnormalities, first by exploring traditional machine learning algorithms using classification methods applied to hand-engineered features (event-related potential components). Then, we compare the performance of these methods with end-to-end deep learning techniques applied to raw data. We demonstrate via average cross-validation performance measures that recurrent deep convolutional neural networks can outperform traditional machine learning methods for sequence modeling. We illustrate the intuitive salient information of the model with the location of the most relevant attributes of a post-stimulus window. This baseline identification system in the area of mental illness supports the evidence of developmental and disease effects in a pre-prodromal phase of psychosis. These results reinforce the benefits of deep learning to support psychiatric classification and neuroscientific research more broadly.

Deep Neural Network to Differentiate Brain Activity Between Patients With First-Episode Schizophrenia and Healthy Individuals: A Multi-Channel Near Infrared Spectroscopy Study

Backgrounds: Reduced brain cortical activity over the frontotemporal regions measured by near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has been reported in patients with first-episode schizophrenia (FES). This study aimed to differentiate between patients with FES and healthy controls (HCs) on basis of the frontotemporal activity measured by NIRS with a support vector machine (SVM) and deep neural network (DNN) classifier. In addition, we compared the accuracy of performance of SVM and DNN. Methods: In total, 33 FES patients and 34 HCs were recruited. Their brain cortical activities were measured using NIRS while performing letter and category versions of verbal fluency tests (VFTs). The integral and centroid values of brain cortical activity in the bilateral frontotemporal regions during the VFTs were selected as features in SVM and DNN classifier. Results: Compared to HCs, FES patients displayed reduced brain cortical activity over the bilateral frontotemporal regions during both types of VFTs. Regarding the classifier performance, SVM reached an accuracy of 68.6%, sensitivity of 70.1%, and specificity of 64.6%, while DNN reached an accuracy of 79.7%, sensitivity of 88.8%, and specificity of 74.9% in the classification of FES patients and HCs. Conclusions: Compared to findings of previous structural neuroimaging studies, we found that using DNN to measure the NIRS signals during the VFTs to differentiate between FES patients and HCs could achieve a higher accuracy, indicating that NIRS can be used as a potential marker to classify FES patients from HCs. Future additional independent datasets are needed to confirm the validity of our model.

Multimodal MRI assessment for first episode psychosis: A major change in the thalamus and an efficient stratification of a subgroup

Multi‐institutional brain imaging studies have emerged to resolve conflicting results among individual studies. However, adjusting multiple variables at the technical and cohort levels is challenging. Therefore, it is important to explore approaches that provide meaningful results from relatively small samples at institutional levels. We studied 87 first episode psychosis (FEP) patients and 62 healthy subjects by combining supervised integrated factor analysis (SIFA) with a novel pipeline for automated structure‐based analysis, an efficient and comprehensive method for dimensional data reduction that our group recently established. We integrated multiple MRI features (volume, DTI indices, resting state fMRI—rsfMRI) in the whole brain of each participant in an unbiased manner. The automated structure‐based analysis showed widespread DTI abnormalities in FEP and rs‐fMRI differences between FEP and healthy subjects mostly centered in thalamus. The combination of multiple modalities with SIFA was more efficient than the use of single modalities to stratify a subgroup of FEP (individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder) that had more robust deficits from the overall FEP group. The information from multiple MRI modalities and analytical methods highlighted the thalamus as significantly abnormal in FEP. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept for the potential of this methodology to reveal disease underpins and to stratify populations into more homogeneous sub‐groups.

A multidisciplinary approach to insanity assessment as a way to reduce cognitive biases

Insanity assessment requires the evaluation of the psychopathological condition that underlies the mens rea. Psychopathological evaluation may be quite challenging due to (i) absence of biomarkers; (ii) low inter-rater reliability; (iii) presence of cognitive bias. This intrinsic low reliability of forensic psychiatric diagnosis does impact on insanity assessment, leading to arbitrary and unjust legal outcomes for the examinee. Thus, strategies to improve the reliability of insanity evaluation are strongly needed. A multidisciplinary approach has been proposed as a way to enrich clinical diagnosis with reliable and biologically founded data, thus minimizing subjectivity, reducing controversies and increasing inter-subject concordance in insanity assessment. By discussing a real case, here we show how the convergence of multiple indices can produce evidence that cannot be denied without introducing logical fallacies. Applying this approach, the forensic discussion will move from the presence/absence of psychopathology to the impact of psychopathology on insanity. This article illustrates how a multidisciplinary evaluation, which integrates neuroscientific methods with the classical insanity assessment, may lead to a more accurate approach in insanity evaluation. Critically, this approach will minimize the impact of cognitive bias on insanity opinion and thus result in an improvement of the whole criminal justice process.

Transdiagnostic individualized clinically-based risk calculator for the automatic detection of individuals at-risk and the prediction of psychosis: external replication in 2,430,333 US patients

The real-world impact of psychosis prevention is reliant on effective strategies for identifying individuals at risk. A transdiagnostic, individualized, clinically-based risk calculator to improve this has been developed and externally validated twice in two different UK healthcare trusts with convincing results. The prognostic performance of this risk calculator outside the UK is unknown. All individuals who accessed primary or secondary health care services belonging to the IBM® MarketScan® Commercial Database between January 2015 and December 2017, and received a first ICD-10 index diagnosis of nonorganic/nonpsychotic mental disorder, were included. According to the risk calculator, age, gender, ethnicity, age-by-gender, and ICD-10 cluster diagnosis at index date were used to predict development of any ICD-10 nonorganic psychotic disorder. Because patient-level ethnicity data were not available city-level ethnicity proportions were used as proxy. The study included 2,430,333 patients with a mean follow-up of 15.36 months and cumulative incidence of psychosis at two years of 1.43%. There were profound differences compared to the original development UK database in terms of case-mix, psychosis incidence, distribution of baseline predictors (ICD-10 cluster diagnoses), availability of patient-level ethnicity data, follow-up time and availability of specialized clinical services for at-risk individuals. Despite these important differences, the model retained accuracy significantly above chance (Harrell's C = 0.676, 95% CI: 0.672-0.679). To date, this is the largest international external replication of an individualized prognostic model in the field of psychiatry. This risk calculator is transportable on an international scale to improve the automatic detection of individuals at risk of psychosis.

A Machine-Based Prediction Model of ADHD Using CPT Data

Despite the popularity of the continuous performance test (CPT) in the diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), its specificity, sensitivity, and ecological validity are still debated. To address some of the known shortcomings of traditional analysis and interpretation of CPT data, the present study applied a machine learning-based model (ML) using CPT indices for the Prediction of ADHD.Using a retrospective factorial fitting, followed by a bootstrap technique, we trained, cross-validated, and tested learning models on CPT performance data of 458 children aged 6–12 years (213 children with ADHD and 245 typically developed children). We used the MOXO-CPT version that included visual and auditory stimuli distractors. Results showed that the ML proposed model performed better and had a higher accuracy than the benchmark approach that used clinical data only. Using the CPT total score (that included all four indices: Attention, Timeliness, Hyperactivity, and Impulsiveness), as well as four control variables [age, gender, day of the week (DoW), time of day (ToD)], provided the most salient information for discriminating children with ADHD from their typically developed peers. This model had an accuracy rate of 87%, a sensitivity rate of 89%, and a specificity rate of 84%. This performance was 34% higher than the best-achieved accuracy of the benchmark model. The ML detection model could classify children with ADHD with high accuracy based on CPT performance. ML model of ADHD holds the promise of enhancing, perhaps complementing, behavioral assessment and may be used as a supportive measure in the evaluation of ADHD.

A machine-learning framework for robust and reliable prediction of short- and long-term treatment response in initially antipsychotic-naïve schizophrenia patients based on multimodal neuropsychiatric data

The reproducibility of machine-learning analyses in computational psychiatry is a growing concern. In a multimodal neuropsychiatric dataset of antipsychotic-naïve, first-episode schizophrenia patients, we discuss a workflow aimed at reducing bias and overfitting by invoking simulated data in the design process and analysis in two independent machine-learning approaches, one based on a single algorithm and the other incorporating an ensemble of algorithms. We aimed to (1) classify patients from controls to establish the framework, (2) predict short- and long-term treatment response, and (3) validate the methodological framework. We included 138 antipsychotic-naïve, first-episode schizophrenia patients with data on psychopathology, cognition, electrophysiology, and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Perinatal data and long-term outcome measures were obtained from Danish registers. Short-term treatment response was defined as change in Positive And Negative Syndrome Score (PANSS) after the initial antipsychotic treatment period. Baseline diagnostic classification algorithms also included data from 151 matched controls. Both approaches significantly classified patients from healthy controls with a balanced accuracy of 63.8% and 64.2%, respectively. Post-hoc analyses showed that the classification primarily was driven by the cognitive data. Neither approach predicted short- nor long-term treatment response. Validation of the framework showed that choice of algorithm and parameter settings in the real data was successfully guided by results from the simulated data. In conclusion, this novel approach holds promise as an important step to minimize bias and obtain reliable results with modest sample sizes when independent replication samples are not available.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Connectivity Accurately Distinguishes Cases With Psychotic Disorders From Healthy Controls, Based on Cortical Features Associated With Brain Network Development

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) can distinguish cases with psychotic disorder from healthy controls based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, but it is not yet clear which MRI metrics are the most informative for case-control ML, or how ML algorithms relate to the underlying biology.

METHODS

We analyzed multimodal MRI data from 2 independent case-control studies of psychotic disorders (cases, n = 65, 28; controls, n = 59, 80) and compared ML accuracy across 5 selected MRI metrics from 3 modalities. Cortical thickness, mean diffusivity, and fractional anisotropy were estimated at each of 308 cortical regions, as well as functional and structural connectivity between each pair of regions. Functional connectivity data were also used to classify nonpsychotic siblings of cases (n = 64) and to distinguish cases from controls in a third independent study (cases, n = 67; controls, n = 81).

RESULTS

In both principal studies, the most informative metric was functional MRI connectivity: The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 88% and 76%, respectively. The cortical map of diagnostic connectivity features (ML weights) was replicable between studies (r = .27, p < .001); correlated with replicable case-control differences in functional MRI degree centrality and with a prior cortical map of adolescent development of functional connectivity; predicted intermediate probabilities of psychosis in siblings; and was replicated in the third case-control study.

CONCLUSIONS

ML most accurately distinguished cases from controls by a replicable pattern of functional MRI connectivity features, highlighting abnormal hubness of cortical nodes in an anatomical pattern consistent with the concept of psychosis as a disorder of network development.

Translating research findings into clinical practice: a systematic and critical review of neuroimaging-based clinical tools for brain disorders

A pivotal aim of psychiatric and neurological research is to promote the translation of the findings into clinical practice to improve diagnostic and prognostic assessment of individual patients. Structural neuroimaging holds much promise, with neuroanatomical measures accounting for up to 40% of the variance in clinical outcome. Building on these findings, a number of imaging-based clinical tools have been developed to make diagnostic and prognostic inferences about individual patients from their structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging scans. This systematic review describes and compares the technical characteristics of the available tools, with the aim to assess their translational potential into real-world clinical settings. The results reveal that a total of eight tools. All of these were specifically developed for neurological disorders, and as such are not suitable for application to psychiatric disorders. Furthermore, most of the tools were trained and validated in a single dataset, which can result in poor generalizability, or using a small number of individuals, which can cause overoptimistic results. In addition, all of the tools rely on two strategies to detect brain abnormalities in single individuals, one based on univariate comparison, and the other based on multivariate machine-learning algorithms. We discuss current barriers to the adoption of these tools in clinical practice and propose a checklist of pivotal characteristics that should be included in an "ideal" neuroimaging-based clinical tool for brain disorders.

Detecting Abnormal Brain Regions in Schizophrenia Using Structural MRI via Machine Learning

Utilizing neuroimaging and machine learning (ML) to differentiate schizophrenia (SZ) patients from normal controls (NCs) and for detecting abnormal brain regions in schizophrenia has several benefits and can provide a reference for the clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia. In this study, structural magnetic resonance images (sMRIs) from SZ patients and NCs were used for discriminative analysis. This study proposed an ML framework based on coarse-to-fine feature selection. The proposed framework used two-sample t-tests to extract the differences between groups first, then further eliminated the nonrelevant and redundant features with recursive feature elimination (RFE), and finally utilized the support vector machine (SVM) to learn the decision models with selected gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) features. Previous studies have tended to report differences at the group level instead of at the individual level and cannot be widely applied. The method proposed in this study extends the diagnosis to the individual level and has a higher recognition rate than previous methods. The experimental results of this study demonstrate that the proposed framework distinguishes SZ patients from NCs, with the highest classification accuracy reaching over 85%. The identified biomarkers are also consistent with previous literature findings. As a universal method, the proposed framework can be extended to diagnose other diseases.