1
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Jouault C, Condamine FL, Legendre F, Perrichot V. The Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution buffered ants against extinction. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2317795121. [PMID: 38466878 PMCID: PMC10990090 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2317795121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 02/08/2024] [Indexed: 03/13/2024] Open
Abstract
With ~14,000 extant species, ants are ubiquitous and of tremendous ecological importance. They have undergone remarkable diversification throughout their evolutionary history. However, the drivers of their diversity dynamics are not well quantified or understood. Previous phylogenetic analyses have suggested patterns of diversity dynamics associated with the Angiosperm Terrestrial Revolution (ATR), but these studies have overlooked valuable information from the fossil record. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis using a large dataset that includes both the ant fossil record (~24,000 individual occurrences) and neontological data (~14,000 occurrences), and tested four hypotheses proposed for ant diversification: co-diversification, competitive extinction, hyper-specialization, and buffered extinction. Taking into account biases in the fossil record, we found three distinct diversification periods (the latest Cretaceous, Eocene, and Oligo-Miocene) and one extinction period (Late Cretaceous). The competitive extinction hypothesis between stem and crown ants is not supported. Instead, we found support for the co-diversification, buffered extinction, and hyper-specialization hypotheses. The environmental changes of the ATR, mediated by the angiosperm radiation, likely played a critical role in buffering ants against extinction and favoring their diversification by providing new ecological niches, such as forest litter and arboreal nesting sites, and additional resources. We also hypothesize that the decline and extinction of stem ants during the Late Cretaceous was due to their hyper-specialized morphology, which limited their ability to expand their dietary niche in changing environments. This study highlights the importance of a holistic approach when studying the interplay between past environments and the evolutionary trajectories of organisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corentin Jouault
- Institut de Systématique Évolution, Biodiversité, UMR 7205, Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE-PSL, Université des Antilles, Paris75005, France
- Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Montpellier34095, France
- Géosciences Rennes, UMR 6118, Univ. Rennes, CNRS, Rennes35000, France
| | - Fabien L. Condamine
- Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Montpellier34095, France
| | - Frédéric Legendre
- Institut de Systématique Évolution, Biodiversité, UMR 7205, Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE-PSL, Université des Antilles, Paris75005, France
| | - Vincent Perrichot
- Géosciences Rennes, UMR 6118, Univ. Rennes, CNRS, Rennes35000, France
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2
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Caetano DS, Quental TB. How Important Is Budding Speciation for Comparative Studies? Syst Biol 2023; 72:1443-1453. [PMID: 37586404 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syad050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2022] [Revised: 07/26/2023] [Accepted: 08/16/2023] [Indexed: 08/18/2023] Open
Abstract
The acknowledgment of evolutionary dependence among species has fundamentally changed how we ask biological questions. Phylogenetic models became the standard approach for studies with 3 or more lineages, in particular those using extant species. Most phylogenetic comparative methods (PCMs) translate relatedness into covariance, meaning that evolutionary changes before lineages split should be interpreted together whereas after the split lineages are expected to change independently. This clever realization has shaped decades of research. Here, we discuss one element of the comparative method often ignored or assumed as unimportant: if nodes of a phylogeny represent the dissolution of the ancestral lineage into two new ones or if the ancestral lineage can survive speciation events (i.e., budding). Budding speciation is often reported in paleontological studies, due to the nature of the evidence for budding in the fossil record, but it is surprisingly absent in comparative methods. Here, we show that many PCMs assume that divergence happens as a symmetric split, even if these methods do not explicitly mention this assumption. We discuss the properties of trait evolution models for continuous and discrete traits and their adequacy under a scenario of budding speciation. We discuss the effects of budding speciation under a series of plausible evolutionary scenarios and show when and how these can influence our estimates. We also propose that long-lived lineages that have survived through a series of budding speciation events and given birth to multiple new lineages can produce evolutionary patterns that challenge our intuition about the most parsimonious history of trait changes in a clade. We hope our discussion can help bridge comparative approaches in paleontology and neontology as well as foster awareness about the assumptions we make when we use phylogenetic trees.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel S Caetano
- Department of Biological Sciences, Towson University, 8000 York Road, Towson, MD 21252, USA
- Department of Ecology, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 321 - Trav. 14, São Paulo, SP, 05508-090, Brazil
| | - Tiago B Quental
- Department of Ecology, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 321 - Trav. 14, São Paulo, SP, 05508-090, Brazil
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3
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Weppe R, Condamine FL, Guinot G, Maugoust J, Orliac MJ. Drivers of the artiodactyl turnover in insular western Europe at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2023; 120:e2309945120. [PMID: 38109543 PMCID: PMC10756263 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2309945120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/16/2023] [Accepted: 11/10/2023] [Indexed: 12/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Simultaneously investigating the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on diversity dynamics is essential to understand the evolutionary history of clades. The Grande Coupure corresponds to a major faunal turnover at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) (~34.1 to 33.55 Mya) and is defined in western Europe as an extinction of insular European mammals coupled with the arrival of crown clades from Asia. Here, we focused on the species-rich group of endemic European artiodactyls to determine the drivers of the Grande Coupure during the major environmental disruptions at the EOT. Using Bayesian birth-death models, we analyzed an original high-resolution fossil dataset (90 species, >2,100 occurrences) from southwestern France (Quercy area) and estimated the regional diversification and diversity dynamics of endemic and immigrant artiodactyls. We show that the endemic artiodactyl radiation was mainly related to the Eocene tropical conditions, combined with biotic controls on speciation and clade-related diversity dependence. We further highlight that the major environmental changes at the transition (77% of species became extinct) and the concurrent increase in seasonality in Europe during the Oligocene were likely the main drivers of their decline. Surprisingly, our results do not support the widely-held hypothesis of active competition between endemic and immigrant artiodactyls but rather suggest a passive or opportunistic replacement by immigrants, which is further supported by morphological clustering of specific ecological traits across the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Our analyses provide insights into the evolutionary and ecological processes driving the diversification and decline of mammalian clades during a major biological and climatic crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Romain Weppe
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier Cedex 534095, France
| | - Fabien L. Condamine
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier Cedex 534095, France
| | - Guillaume Guinot
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier Cedex 534095, France
| | - Jacob Maugoust
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier Cedex 534095, France
| | - Maëva J. Orliac
- Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier Cedex 534095, France
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Guinot G, Condamine FL. Global impact and selectivity of the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction among sharks, skates, and rays. Science 2023; 379:802-806. [PMID: 36821692 DOI: 10.1126/science.abn2080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/25/2023]
Abstract
The Cretaceous-Paleogene event was the last mass extinction event, yet its impact and long-term effects on species-level marine vertebrate diversity remain largely uncharacterized. We quantified elasmobranch (sharks, skates, and rays) speciation, extinction, and ecological change resulting from the end-Cretaceous event using >3200 fossil occurrences and 675 species spanning the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene interval at global scale. Elasmobranchs declined by >62% at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary and did not fully recover in the Paleocene. The end-Cretaceous event triggered a heterogeneous pattern of extinction, with rays and durophagous species reaching the highest levels of extinction (>72%) and sharks and nondurophagous species being less affected. Taxa with large geographic ranges and/or those restricted to high-latitude settings show higher survival. The Cretaceous-Paleogene event drastically altered the evolutionary history of marine ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guillaume Guinot
- Institut des Sciences de l'Évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
| | - Fabien L Condamine
- Institut des Sciences de l'Évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
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5
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Jouault C, Nel A, Perrichot V, Legendre F, Condamine FL. Multiple drivers and lineage-specific insect extinctions during the Permo-Triassic. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7512. [PMID: 36473862 PMCID: PMC9726944 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35284-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/25/2022] [Accepted: 11/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The Permo-Triassic interval encompasses three extinction events including the most dramatic biological crisis of the Phanerozoic, the latest Permian mass extinction. However, their drivers and outcomes are poorly quantified and understood for terrestrial invertebrates, which we assess here for insects. We find a pattern with three extinctions: the Roadian/Wordian (≈266.9 Ma; extinction of 64.5% insect genera), the Permian/Triassic (≈252 Ma; extinction of 82.6% insect genera), and the Ladinian/Carnian boundaries (≈237 Ma; extinction of 74.8% insect genera). We also unveil a heterogeneous effect of these extinction events across the major insect clades. Because extinction events have impacted Permo-Triassic ecosystems, we investigate the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on insect diversification dynamics and find that changes in floral assemblages are likely the strongest drivers of insects' responses throughout the Permo-Triassic. We also assess the effect of diversity dependence between three insect guilds; an effect ubiquitously found in current ecosystems. We find that herbivores held a central position in the Permo-Triassic interaction network. Our study reveals high levels of insect extinction that profoundly shaped the evolutionary history of the most diverse non-microbial lineage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corentin Jouault
- grid.462844.80000 0001 2308 1657Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE, Université des Antilles, CP50, 57 rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris, France ,grid.462934.e0000 0001 1482 4447Univ. Rennes, CNRS, Géosciences Rennes, UMR 6118, F-35000 Rennes, France ,grid.4444.00000 0001 2112 9282CNRS, UMR 5554 Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
| | - André Nel
- grid.462844.80000 0001 2308 1657Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE, Université des Antilles, CP50, 57 rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Vincent Perrichot
- grid.462934.e0000 0001 1482 4447Univ. Rennes, CNRS, Géosciences Rennes, UMR 6118, F-35000 Rennes, France
| | - Frédéric Legendre
- grid.462844.80000 0001 2308 1657Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, EPHE, Université des Antilles, CP50, 57 rue Cuvier, 75005 Paris, France
| | - Fabien L. Condamine
- grid.4444.00000 0001 2112 9282CNRS, UMR 5554 Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
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6
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do Rosario Petrucci B, Januario M, Quental T. paleobuddy: An R package for flexible simulations of diversification and fossil sampling. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13996] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Matheus Januario
- Departamento de Ecologia Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology University of Michigan Ann‐Arbor Michigan USA
| | - Tiago Quental
- Departamento de Ecologia Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
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7
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Soewongsono AC, Holland BR, O’Reilly MM. The Shape of Phylogenies Under Phase-Type Distributed Times to Speciation and Extinction. Bull Math Biol 2022; 84:118. [PMID: 36103093 PMCID: PMC9474389 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-022-01072-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
Phylogenetic trees describe relationships between extant species, but beyond that their shape and their relative branch lengths can provide information on broader evolutionary processes of speciation and extinction. However, currently many of the most widely used macro-evolutionary models make predictions about the shapes of phylogenetic trees that differ considerably from what is observed in empirical phylogenies. Here, we propose a flexible and biologically plausible macroevolutionary model for phylogenetic trees where times to speciation or extinction events are drawn from a Coxian phase-type (PH) distribution. First, we show that different choices of parameters in our model lead to a range of tree balances as measured by Aldous’ \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$\beta $$\end{document}β statistic. In particular, we demonstrate that it is possible to find parameters that correspond well to empirical tree balance. Next, we provide a natural extension of the \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$\beta $$\end{document}β statistic to sets of trees. This extension produces less biased estimates of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal}
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\begin{document}$$\beta $$\end{document}β values from individual trees. Furthermore, we derive a likelihood expression for the probability of observing an edge-weighted tree under a model with speciation but no extinction. Finally, we illustrate the application of our model by performing both absolute and relative goodness-of-fit tests for two large empirical phylogenies (squamates and angiosperms) that compare models with Coxian PH distributed times to speciation with models that assume exponential or Weibull distributed waiting times. In our numerical analysis, we found that, in most cases, models assuming a Coxian PH distribution provided the best fit.
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Affiliation(s)
- Albert Ch. Soewongsono
- School of Natural Sciences (Discipline of Mathematics), University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7005 Australia
| | - Barbara R. Holland
- School of Natural Sciences (Discipline of Mathematics), University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7005 Australia
| | - Małgorzata M. O’Reilly
- School of Natural Sciences (Discipline of Mathematics), University of Tasmania, Hobart, 7005 Australia
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8
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López-Antoñanzas R, Mitchell J, Simões TR, Condamine FL, Aguilée R, Peláez-Campomanes P, Renaud S, Rolland J, Donoghue PCJ. Integrative Phylogenetics: Tools for Palaeontologists to Explore the Tree of Life. BIOLOGY 2022; 11:1185. [PMID: 36009812 PMCID: PMC9405010 DOI: 10.3390/biology11081185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 07/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The modern era of analytical and quantitative palaeobiology has only just begun, integrating methods such as morphological and molecular phylogenetics and divergence time estimation, as well as phenotypic and molecular rates of evolution. Calibrating the tree of life to geological time is at the nexus of many disparate disciplines, from palaeontology to molecular systematics and from geochronology to comparative genomics. Creating an evolutionary time scale of the major events that shaped biodiversity is key to all of these fields and draws from each of them. Different methodological approaches and data employed in various disciplines have traditionally made collaborative research efforts difficult among these disciplines. However, the development of new methods is bridging the historical gap between fields, providing a holistic perspective on organismal evolutionary history, integrating all of the available evidence from living and fossil species. Because phylogenies with only extant taxa do not contain enough information to either calibrate the tree of life or fully infer macroevolutionary dynamics, phylogenies should preferably include both extant and extinct taxa, which can only be achieved through the inclusion of phenotypic data. This integrative phylogenetic approach provides ample and novel opportunities for evolutionary biologists to benefit from palaeontological data to help establish an evolutionary time scale and to test core macroevolutionary hypotheses about the drivers of biological diversification across various dimensions of organisms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raquel López-Antoñanzas
- Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution (ISE-M, UMR 5554, CNRS/UM/IRD/EPHE), Université de Montpellier, 34090 Montpellier, France
- Departamento de Paleobiología, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales-CSIC, 28006 Madrid, Spain
| | - Jonathan Mitchell
- Department of Biology, West Virginia University Institute of Technology, 410 Neville Street, Beckley, WV 25801, USA
| | - Tiago R. Simões
- Museum of Comparative Zoology & Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
| | - Fabien L. Condamine
- Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution (ISE-M, UMR 5554, CNRS/UM/IRD/EPHE), Université de Montpellier, 34090 Montpellier, France
| | - Robin Aguilée
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique, Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, UMR 5174, CNRS/IRD, 31077 Toulouse, France
| | - Pablo Peláez-Campomanes
- Departamento de Paleobiología, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales-CSIC, 28006 Madrid, Spain
| | - Sabrina Renaud
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France
| | - Jonathan Rolland
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique, Université Paul Sabatier Toulouse III, UMR 5174, CNRS/IRD, 31077 Toulouse, France
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Wilson JD, Mongiardino Koch N, Ramírez MJ. Chronogram or phylogram for ancestral state estimation? Model‐fit statistics indicate the branch lengths underlying a binary character’s evolution. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13872] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jeremy D. Wilson
- Biodiversity and Geosciences Program, Queensland Museum South Brisbane, Queensland 4101 Australia
- Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. Angel Gallardo 470, C1405DJR Buenos Aires Argentina
| | - Nicolás Mongiardino Koch
- Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences Yale University 210 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, CT 06511 USA
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego, 8750 Biological Grade, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA
| | - Martín J. Ramírez
- Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. Angel Gallardo 470, C1405DJR Buenos Aires Argentina
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Greenberg DA, Pyron RA, Johnson LGW, Upham NS, Jetz W, Mooers AØ. Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment. Ecol Lett 2021; 24:2464-2476. [PMID: 34510687 PMCID: PMC9048422 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13868] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2021] [Revised: 07/12/2021] [Accepted: 07/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Abstract
The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan A. Greenberg
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - R. Alexander Pyron
- Department of Biological Sciences, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Liam G. W. Johnson
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Nathan S. Upham
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Arne Ø. Mooers
- Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
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11
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Condamine FL, Guinot G, Benton MJ, Currie PJ. Dinosaur biodiversity declined well before the asteroid impact, influenced by ecological and environmental pressures. Nat Commun 2021; 12:3833. [PMID: 34188028 PMCID: PMC8242047 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23754-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2019] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
The question why non-avian dinosaurs went extinct 66 million years ago (Ma) remains unresolved because of the coarseness of the fossil record. A sudden extinction caused by an asteroid is the most accepted hypothesis but it is debated whether dinosaurs were in decline or not before the impact. We analyse the speciation-extinction dynamics for six key dinosaur families, and find a decline across dinosaurs, where diversification shifted to a declining-diversity pattern ~76 Ma. We investigate the influence of ecological and physical factors, and find that the decline of dinosaurs was likely driven by global climate cooling and herbivorous diversity drop. The latter is likely due to hadrosaurs outcompeting other herbivores. We also estimate that extinction risk is related to species age during the decline, suggesting a lack of evolutionary novelty or adaptation to changing environments. These results support an environmentally driven decline of non-avian dinosaurs well before the asteroid impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabien L Condamine
- Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (Université de Montpellier | CNRS|IRD|EPHE), Montpellier, France.
| | - Guillaume Guinot
- Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (Université de Montpellier | CNRS|IRD|EPHE), Montpellier, France
| | - Michael J Benton
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
| | - Philip J Currie
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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12
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Weppe R, Orliac MJ, Guinot G, Condamine FL. Evolutionary drivers, morphological evolution and diversity dynamics of a surviving mammal clade: cainotherioids at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20210173. [PMID: 34074121 PMCID: PMC8170207 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.0173] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) represents a period of global environmental changes particularly marked in Europe and coincides with a dramatic biotic turnover. Here, using an exceptional fossil preservation, we document and analyse the diversity dynamics of a mammal clade, Cainotherioidea (Artiodactyla), that survived the EOT and radiated rapidly immediately after. We infer their diversification history from Quercy Konzentrat-Lagerstätte (south-west France) at the species level using Bayesian birth-death models. We show that cainotherioid diversity fluctuated through time, with extinction events at the EOT and in the late Oligocene, and a major speciation burst in the early Oligocene. The latter is in line with our finding that cainotherioids had a high morphological adaptability following environmental changes throughout the EOT, which probably played a key role in the survival and evolutionary success of this clade in the aftermath. Speciation is positively associated with temperature and continental fragmentation in a time-continuous way, while extinction seems to synchronize with environmental change in a punctuated way. Within-clade interactions negatively affected the cainotherioid diversification, while inter-clade competition might explain their final decline during the late Oligocene. Our results provide a detailed dynamic picture of the evolutionary history of a mammal clade in a context of global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- R. Weppe
- Institut des Sciences de l’évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - M. J. Orliac
- Institut des Sciences de l’évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - G. Guinot
- Institut des Sciences de l’évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - F. L. Condamine
- Institut des Sciences de l’évolution de Montpellier, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
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13
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Januario M, Quental TB. Re-evaluation of the "law of constant extinction" for ruminants at different taxonomical scales. Evolution 2021; 75:656-671. [PMID: 33486771 DOI: 10.1111/evo.14177] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2019] [Revised: 12/15/2020] [Accepted: 12/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
The "law of constant extinction," proposed by Van Valen, states that long and short-lived taxa have equal chances of going extinct. This pattern of age-independent extinction was originally inferred using the fossil record of several different taxa and relied on survivorship curves built from the literal reading of the fossil record. Van Valen's seminal work was mostly done at higher taxonomic levels, hence its prevalence at the species level could not be directly inferred. The surprisingly few subsequent studies done at the species level have challenged the prevalence of age-independent extinction, but those have, for the most part, failed to explicitly incorporate inherent biases of the fossil record. Using a recent Bayesian framework that accounts for several of those biases, including the fact that very short-living lineages might never make to the record itself, we showed that Ruminantia species present age-dependent extinction, where extinction probability decreases with species age. An analysis at the genus level suggested age-independent extinction but further examination suggested that the pattern might be more complex than previously reported by Van Valen. Our results indicate that different taxonomic levels may present different extinction regimes, which could justify the development of new macroevolutionary theory and methods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matheus Januario
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tiago B Quental
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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14
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Lloyd GT, Slater GJ. A Total-Group Phylogenetic Metatree for Cetacea and the Importance of Fossil Data in Diversification Analyses. Syst Biol 2021; 70:922-939. [PMID: 33507304 DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syab002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2020] [Revised: 12/20/2020] [Accepted: 01/10/2021] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Phylogenetic trees provide a powerful framework for testing macroevolutionary hypotheses, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that inferences derived from extant species alone can be highly misleading. Trees incorporating living and extinct taxa are are needed to address fundamental questions about the origins of diversity and disparity but it has proved challenging to generate robust, species-rich phylogenies that include large numbers of fossil taxa. As a result, most studies of diversification dynamics continue to rely on molecular phylogenies. Here, we extend and apply a recently developed meta-analytic approach for synthesizing previously published phylogenetic studies to infer a well-resolved set of species level, time-scaled phylogenetic hypotheses for extinct and extant cetaceans (whales, dolphins and allies). Our trees extend sampling from the ∼ 90 extant species to over 500 living and extinct species, and therefore allow for more robust inference of macroevolutionary dynamics. While the diversification scenarios we recover are broadly concordant with those inferred from molecular phylogenies they differ in critical ways, notably in the relative contributions of extinction and speciation rate shifts in driving rapid radiations. The metatree approach provides the most immediate route for generating higher level phylogenies of extinct taxa, and opens the door to re-evaluation of macroevolutionary hypotheses derived only from extant taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Graeme T Lloyd
- School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, U.K
| | - Graham J Slater
- Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, USA
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15
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Pannetier T, Martinez C, Bunnefeld L, Etienne RS. Branching patterns in phylogenies cannot distinguish diversity-dependent diversification from time-dependent diversification. Evolution 2020; 75:25-38. [PMID: 33205832 PMCID: PMC7898657 DOI: 10.1111/evo.14124] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2020] [Revised: 10/06/2020] [Accepted: 10/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
One of the primary goals of macroevolutionary biology has been to explain general trends in long‐term diversity patterns, including whether such patterns correspond to an upscaling of processes occurring at lower scales. Reconstructed phylogenies often show decelerated lineage accumulation over time. This pattern has often been interpreted as the result of diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification, where the accumulation of species causes diversification to decrease through niche filling. However, other processes can also produce such a slowdown, including time dependence without diversity dependence. To test whether phylogenetic branching patterns can be used to distinguish these two mechanisms, we formulated a time‐dependent, but diversity‐independent model that matches the expected diversity through time of a DD model. We simulated phylogenies under each model and studied how well likelihood methods could recover the true diversification mode. Standard model selection criteria always recovered diversity dependence, even when it was not present. We correct for this bias by using a bootstrap method and find that neither model is decisively supported. This implies that the branching pattern of reconstructed trees contains insufficient information to detect the presence or absence of diversity dependence. We advocate that tests encompassing additional data, for example, traits or range distributions, are needed to evaluate how diversity drives macroevolutionary trends.
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Affiliation(s)
- Théo Pannetier
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9712 CP, The Netherlands.,Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, United Kingdom
| | - César Martinez
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9712 CP, The Netherlands
| | - Lynsey Bunnefeld
- Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, United Kingdom
| | - Rampal S Etienne
- Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9712 CP, The Netherlands
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16
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Fordham DA, Jackson ST, Brown SC, Huntley B, Brook BW, Dahl-Jensen D, Gilbert MTP, Otto-Bliesner BL, Svensson A, Theodoridis S, Wilmshurst JM, Buettel JC, Canteri E, McDowell M, Orlando L, Pilowsky J, Rahbek C, Nogues-Bravo D. Using paleo-archives to safeguard biodiversity under climate change. Science 2020; 369:369/6507/eabc5654. [PMID: 32855310 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc5654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
Strategies for 21st-century environmental management and conservation under global change require a strong understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate responses to climate- and human-driven change to successfully mitigate range contractions, extinctions, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Biodiversity responses to past rapid warming events can be followed in situ and over extended periods, using cross-disciplinary approaches that provide cost-effective and scalable information for species' conservation and the maintenance of resilient ecosystems in many bioregions. Beyond the intrinsic knowledge gain such integrative research will increasingly provide the context, tools, and relevant case studies to assist in mitigating climate-driven biodiversity losses in the 21st century and beyond.
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Affiliation(s)
- Damien A Fordham
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. .,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Science Centers, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences and School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Stuart C Brown
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia
| | - Brian Huntley
- Department of Biosciences, Durham University, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
| | - Barry W Brook
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Dorthe Dahl-Jensen
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg MB R3T 2N2, Canada
| | - M Thomas P Gilbert
- Center for Evolutionary Hologenomics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Bette L Otto-Bliesner
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307-3000, USA
| | - Anders Svensson
- Centre for Ice and Climate, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Spyros Theodoridis
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Janet M Wilmshurst
- Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.,School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1142, New Zealand
| | - Jessie C Buettel
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Elisabetta Canteri
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Matthew McDowell
- School of Natural Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - Ludovic Orlando
- Laboratoire d'Anthropobiologie Moléculaire et d'Imagerie de Synthèse UMR 5288, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Université Paul Sabatier, France.,Section for GeoGenetics, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Julia Pilowsky
- The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.,Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
| | - Carsten Rahbek
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.,Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.,Institute of Ecology, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - David Nogues-Bravo
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen Ø 2100, Denmark
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17
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Nic Lughadha E, Bachman SP, Leão TCC, Forest F, Halley JM, Moat J, Acedo C, Bacon KL, Brewer RFA, Gâteblé G, Gonçalves SC, Govaerts R, Hollingsworth PM, Krisai‐Greilhuber I, Lirio EJ, Moore PGP, Negrão R, Onana JM, Rajaovelona LR, Razanajatovo H, Reich PB, Richards SL, Rivers MC, Cooper A, Iganci J, Lewis GP, Smidt EC, Antonelli A, Mueller GM, Walker BE. Extinction risk and threats to plants and fungi. PLANTS, PEOPLE, PLANET 2020; 2:389-408. [PMID: 0 DOI: 10.1002/ppp3.10146] [Citation(s) in RCA: 94] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 06/09/2020] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Steven P. Bachman
- Conservation Science Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | | | - Félix Forest
- Analytical Methods Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | - John M. Halley
- Laboratory of Ecology Department of Biological Applications & Technology University of Ioannina Ioannina Greece
| | - Justin Moat
- Bioinformatics and Spatial Analysis Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | - Carmen Acedo
- Department of Biodiversity and Environment Management Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences Campus of Vegazana University of León León Spain
| | - Karen L. Bacon
- Botany & Plant Sciences School of Natural Sciences National University of Ireland Galway Ireland
| | - Ryan F. A. Brewer
- Conservation Science Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | - Gildas Gâteblé
- Equipe ARBOREAL Institut Agronomique néo‐Calédonien Mont‐Dore New Caledonia
| | - Susana C. Gonçalves
- Centre for Functional Ecology Department of Life Sciences University of Coimbra Coimbra Portugal
| | - Rafaël Govaerts
- Bioinformatics and Spatial Analysis Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | | | - Irmgard Krisai‐Greilhuber
- Mycology Research Group Division of Systematic and Evolutionary Biology Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research University of Vienna Vienna Austria
| | - Elton J. Lirio
- Departamento de Botânica Instituto de Biociências Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
| | | | - Raquel Negrão
- Conservation Science Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | - Jean Michel Onana
- Systematics, Biodiversity and Conservation of Plants Faculty of Science University of Yaoundé I & National Herbarium of Cameroon Yaoundé Cameroon
| | - Landy R. Rajaovelona
- Conservation Science Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
- Kew Madagascar Conservation Centre Antananarivo Madagascar
| | - Henintsoa Razanajatovo
- Conservation Science Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
- Kew Madagascar Conservation Centre Antananarivo Madagascar
| | - Peter B. Reich
- Department of Forest Resources University of Minnesota St. Paul MN USA
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment Western Sydney University Penrith NSW Australia
| | | | | | - Amanda Cooper
- Bioinformatics and Spatial Analysis Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
- Department of Biological Sciences Royal HollowayUniversity of London Egham UK
| | - João Iganci
- Instituto de Biologia Departamento de Botânica Universidade Federal de Pelotas Pelotas Brazil
- Instituto de Biociências Programa de Pós‐Graduação em Botânica Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul Porto Alegre Brazil
| | - Gwilym P. Lewis
- Comparative Plant and Fungal Biology Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
| | - Eric C. Smidt
- Departamento de Botânica Universidade Federal do Paraná Curitiba Brazil
| | - Alexandre Antonelli
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences University of Gothenburg Gothenburg Sweden
| | - Gregory M. Mueller
- Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action Chicago Botanic Garden Chicago IL USA
| | - Barnaby E. Walker
- Conservation Science Department Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Richmond UK
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18
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Andermann T, Faurby S, Turvey ST, Antonelli A, Silvestro D. The past and future human impact on mammalian diversity. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2020; 6:6/36/eabb2313. [PMID: 32917612 PMCID: PMC7473673 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abb2313] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2020] [Accepted: 07/16/2020] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
To understand the current biodiversity crisis, it is crucial to determine how humans have affected biodiversity in the past. However, the extent of human involvement in species extinctions from the Late Pleistocene onward remains contentious. Here, we apply Bayesian models to the fossil record to estimate how mammalian extinction rates have changed over the past 126,000 years, inferring specific times of rate increases. We specifically test the hypothesis of human-caused extinctions by using posterior predictive methods. We find that human population size is able to predict past extinctions with 96% accuracy. Predictors based on past climate, in contrast, perform no better than expected by chance, suggesting that climate had a negligible impact on global mammal extinctions. Based on current trends, we predict for the near future a rate escalation of unprecedented magnitude. Our results provide a comprehensive assessment of the human impact on past and predicted future extinctions of mammals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tobias Andermann
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden.
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Göteborg, Sweden
| | - Søren Faurby
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Göteborg, Sweden
| | - Samuel T Turvey
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
| | - Alexandre Antonelli
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Göteborg, Sweden
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, UK
| | - Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Göteborg, Sweden
- Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
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19
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Condamine FL, Nel A, Grandcolas P, Legendre F. Fossil and phylogenetic analyses reveal recurrent periods of diversification and extinction in dictyopteran insects. Cladistics 2020; 36:394-412. [PMID: 34619806 DOI: 10.1111/cla.12412] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Variations of speciation and extinction rates determine the fate of clades through time. Periods of high diversification and extinction (possibly mass-extinction events) can punctuate the evolutionary history of various clades, but they remain loosely defined for many biological groups, especially nonmarine invertebrates like insects. Here, we examine whether the cockroaches, mantises and termites (altogether included in Dictyoptera) have experienced episodic pulses of speciation or extinction and how these pulses may be associated with environmental fluctuations or mass extinctions. We relied on molecular phylogeny and fossil data to shed light on the times and rates at which dictyopterans diversified. The diversification of Dictyoptera has alternated between (i) periods of high diversification in the late Carboniferous, Early-Middle Triassic, Early Cretaceous and middle Palaeogene, and (ii) periods of high extinction rates particularly at the Permian-Triassic boundary, but not necessarily correlated with the major global biodiversity crises as in the mid-Cretaceous. This study advocates the importance of analyzing, when possible, both molecular phylogeny and fossil data to unveil diversification and extinction periods for a given group. The causes and consequences of extinction must be studied beyond mass-extinction events alone to gain a broader understanding of how clades wax and wane.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabien L Condamine
- CNRS, UMR 5554 Institut des Sciences de l'Évolution de Montpellier (Université de Montpellier
- CNRS
- IRD
- EPHE), Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095, Montpellier, France
| | - André Nel
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, SU, EPHE, UA, 57 rue Cuvier, 75231, Paris Cedex 05, France
| | - Philippe Grandcolas
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, SU, EPHE, UA, 57 rue Cuvier, 75231, Paris Cedex 05, France
| | - Frédéric Legendre
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, CNRS, SU, EPHE, UA, 57 rue Cuvier, 75231, Paris Cedex 05, France
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20
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Silvestro D, Castiglione S, Mondanaro A, Serio C, Melchionna M, Piras P, Di Febbraro M, Carotenuto F, Rook L, Raia P. A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction. Ecol Lett 2019; 23:439-446. [PMID: 31854097 PMCID: PMC7027860 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2019] [Revised: 11/06/2019] [Accepted: 11/16/2019] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Leigh Van Valen famously stated that under constant conditions extinction probability is independent of species age. To test this 'law of constant extinction', we developed a new method using deep learning to infer age‐dependent extinction and analysed 450 myr of marine life across 21 invertebrate clades. We show that extinction rate significantly decreases with age in > 90% of the cases, indicating that most species died out soon after their appearance while those which survived experienced ever decreasing extinction risk. This age‐dependent extinction pattern is stronger towards the Equator and holds true when the potential effects of mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation are accounted for. These results suggest that the effect of biological interactions on age‐dependent extinction rate is more intense towards the tropics. We propose that the latitudinal diversity gradient and selection at the species level account for this exceptional, yet little recognised, macroevolutionary and macroecological pattern.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.,Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden.,Department of Computational Biology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Silvia Castiglione
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Napoli, Italy
| | - Alessandro Mondanaro
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Napoli, Italy.,Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Via G. La Pira, 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy
| | - Carmela Serio
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Napoli, Italy
| | - Marina Melchionna
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Napoli, Italy
| | - Paolo Piras
- Dipartimento di Scienze Cardiovascolari, Respiratorie, Nefrologiche, Anestesiologiche e Geriatriche, "Sapienza", Rome, Italy.,Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Sapienza, Università di Roma, Via Eudossiana 18, 00100, Rome, Italy.,Università di Roma, Via del Policlinico 155, 00161, Rome, Italy
| | - Mirko Di Febbraro
- Dipartimento di Bioscienze e Territorio, University of Molise, C. da Fonte Lappone 15, 86090, Pesche, IS, Italy
| | - Francesco Carotenuto
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Napoli, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Rook
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Via G. La Pira, 4, 50121, Firenze, Italy
| | - Pasquale Raia
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell'Ambiente e delle Risorse, Monte Sant'Angelo, Via Cinthia, 21, 80126, Napoli, Italy
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21
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Climate cooling and clade competition likely drove the decline of lamniform sharks. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:20584-20590. [PMID: 31548392 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1902693116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding heterogeneity in species richness between closely related clades is a key research question in ecology and evolutionary biology. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed to interpret such diversity contrasts across the tree of life, with most studies focusing on speciation rates to explain clades' evolutionary radiations, while often neglecting extinction rates. Here we study a notorious biological model as exemplified by the sister relationships between mackerel sharks (Lamniformes, 15 extant species) and ground sharks (Carcharhiniformes, ∼290 extant species). Using a comprehensive fossil dataset, we found that the diversity dynamics of lamniforms waxed and waned following repeated cycles of radiation phases and declining phases. Radiation phases peaked up to 3 times the current diversity in the early Late Cretaceous. In the last 20 million years, the group declined to its present-day diversity. Along with a higher extinction risk for young species, we further show that this declining pattern is likely attributed to a combination of abiotic and biotic factors, with a cooling-driven extinction (negative correlation between temperature and extinction) and clade competition with some ground sharks. Competition from multiple clades successively drove the demise and replacement of mackerel sharks due to a failure to originate facing the rise of ground sharks, particularly since the Eocene. These effects came from ecologically similar carcharhiniform species inhibiting diversification of medium- and large-sized lamniforms. These results imply that the interplay between abiotic and biotic drivers had a substantial role in extinction and speciation, respectively, which determines the sequential rise and decline of marine apex predators.
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22
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Silvestro D, Warnock RCM, Gavryushkina A, Stadler T. Closing the gap between palaeontological and neontological speciation and extinction rate estimates. Nat Commun 2018; 9:5237. [PMID: 30532040 PMCID: PMC6286320 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07622-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2017] [Accepted: 11/13/2018] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Measuring the pace at which speciation and extinction occur is fundamental to understanding the origin and evolution of biodiversity. Both the fossil record and molecular phylogenies of living species can provide independent estimates of speciation and extinction rates, but often produce strikingly divergent results. Despite its implications, the theoretical reasons for this discrepancy remain unknown. Here, we reveal a conceptual and methodological basis able to reconcile palaeontological and molecular evidence: discrepancies are driven by different implicit assumptions about the processes of speciation and species evolution in palaeontological and neontological analyses. We present the "birth-death chronospecies" model that clarifies the definition of speciation and extinction processes allowing for a coherent joint analysis of fossil and phylogenetic data. Using simulations and empirical analyses we demonstrate not only that this model explains much of the apparent incongruence between fossils and phylogenies, but that differences in rate estimates are actually informative about the prevalence of different speciation modes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniele Silvestro
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 41319, Gothenburg, Sweden.
- Global Gothenburg Biodiversity Centre, 41319, Gothenburg, Sweden.
- Department of Computational Biology, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland.
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB), 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland.
| | - Rachel C M Warnock
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB), 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science & Engineering, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 4058, Basel, Switzerland
| | | | - Tanja Stadler
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB), 1015, Lausanne, Switzerland
- Department of Biosystems Science & Engineering, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, 4058, Basel, Switzerland
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23
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Budd GE, Mann RP. History is written by the victors: The effect of the push of the past on the fossil record. Evolution 2018; 72:2276-2291. [PMID: 30257040 PMCID: PMC6282550 DOI: 10.1111/evo.13593] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2017] [Accepted: 09/01/2018] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Survivorship biases can generate remarkable apparent rate heterogeneities through time in otherwise homogeneous birth‐death models of phylogenies. They are a potential explanation for many striking patterns seen in the fossil record and molecular phylogenies. One such bias is the “push of the past”: clades that survived a substantial length of time are likely to have experienced a high rate of early diversification. This creates the illusion of a secular rate slow‐down through time that is, rather, a reversion to the mean. An extra effect increasing early rates of lineage generation is also seen in large clades. These biases are important but relatively neglected influences on many aspects of diversification patterns in the fossil record and elsewhere, such as diversification spikes after mass extinctions and at the origins of clades; they also influence rates of fossilization, changes in rates of phenotypic evolution and even molecular clocks. These inevitable features of surviving and/or large clades should thus not be generalized to the diversification process as a whole without additional study of small and extinct clades, and raise questions about many of the traditional explanations of the patterns seen in the fossil record.
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Affiliation(s)
- Graham E Budd
- Department of Earth Sciences, Palaeobiology, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, Uppsala, SE 752 36, Sweden
| | - Richard P Mann
- Department of Statistics, School of Mathematics, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom
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Warren BH, Hagen O, Gerber F, Thébaud C, Paradis E, Conti E. Evaluating alternative explanations for an association of extinction risk and evolutionary uniqueness in multiple insular lineages. Evolution 2018; 72:2005-2024. [DOI: 10.1111/evo.13582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2018] [Revised: 07/16/2018] [Accepted: 08/07/2018] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ben H. Warren
- Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRSSorbonne Université EPHE, CP 51, 57 Rue Cuvier 75005 Paris France
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary BotanyUniversity of Zurich Zollikerstrasse 107, 8008 Zurich Switzerland
| | - Oskar Hagen
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL 8903 Birmensdorf Switzerland
- Landscape EcologyInstitute of Terrestrial Ecosystems ETH Zurich 8092 Zurich Switzerland
| | - Florian Gerber
- Department of MathematicsUniversity of Zurich 8057 Zurich Switzerland
| | - Christophe Thébaud
- Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité BiologiqueUMR 5174 CNRS‐Université Paul Sabatier‐ENFA 31062 Toulouse Cedex 9 France
| | | | - Elena Conti
- Department of Systematic and Evolutionary BotanyUniversity of Zurich Zollikerstrasse 107, 8008 Zurich Switzerland
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25
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Hagen O, Stadler T, Price S. TreeSimGM: Simulating phylogenetic trees under general Bellman-Harris models with lineage-specific shifts of speciation and extinction in R. Methods Ecol Evol 2018; 9:754-760. [PMID: 29938014 PMCID: PMC5993341 DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2017] [Accepted: 10/04/2017] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Understanding macroevolutionary processes using phylogenetic trees is a challenging and complex process that draws on mathematics, computer science and biology. Given the development of complex mathematical models and the growing computational processing power, simulation tools are becoming increasingly popular.In order to simulate phylogenetic trees, most evolutionary biologists are forced to build their own algorithms or use existing tools built on different platforms and/or as standalone programmes. The absence of a simulation tool accommodating for user-chosen model specifications limits, amongst others, model testing and pipelining with approximate Bayesian computation methods or other subsequent statistical analysis.We introduce "TreeSimGM," an r-package simulation tool for phylogenetic trees under a general Bellman and Harris model. This package allows the user to specify any desired probability distribution for the waiting times until speciation and extinction (e.g. age-dependent speciation/extinction). Upon speciation, the user can specify whether one descendant species corresponds to the ancestor species inheriting its age or whether both descendant species are new species of age 0. Moreover, it is possible to scale the waiting time to speciation/extinction for newly formed species. Thus, "TreeSimGM" not only allows the user to simulate stochastic phylogenetic trees assuming several popular existing models, such as the Yule model, the constant-rate birth-death model, and proportional to distinguishable arrangement models, but it also allows the user to formulate new models for exploration. A short explanation of the supported models and a few examples of how to use our package are presented here.As an r-package, "TreeSimGM" allows flexible and powerful stochastic phylogenetic tree simulations. Moreover, it facilitates the pipelining of outputs or inputs with other functions in r. "TreeSimGM" contributes to the tools available to the r community in the fields of ecology and evolution, is freely available under the GPL-2 licence and can be downloaded at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/TreeSimGM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oskar Hagen
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLBirmensdorfSwitzerland
- Landscape EcologyInstitute of Terrestrial EcosystemsETH ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Tanja Stadler
- Department of Biosystems Science and EngineeringETH ZurichBaselSwitzerland
- Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics (SIB)LausanneSwitzerland
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