Evaluation of the Risk Prediction Tools for Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China: A Single-Centered, Retrospective, Observational Study

Prehospital Pandemic Respiratory Infection Emergency System Triage score can effectively predict the 30-day mortality of COVID-19 patients with pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with pneumonia should receive the guidance of initial risk stratification and early warning as soon as possible. Whether the prehospital Pandemic Respiratory Infection Emergency System Triage (PRIEST) score can accurately predict the short-term prognosis of them remains unknown. Accordingly, we aimed to assess the performance of prehospital PRIEST in predicting the 30-day mortality of patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study evaluated the accuracy of five physiological parameters scores commonly used in prehospital disposal for mortality prediction using receiver operating characteristic curves and decision curve analysis. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted to evaluate independent predictors associated with the 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 231 patients were included in this study, among which 23 cases (10.0%) died within 30 days after admission. Compared with survivor patients, non-survivor patients had greater numbers of comorbidities, signs and symptoms, complications, and physiological parameters scores and required greater prehospital care (p < 0.05). When the PRIEST score was >12, the sensitivity was 91.3%, and the specificity was 77.4%. We found that the area under the curve of the PRIEST score (0.887, p < 0.05) for mortality prediction was greater than that of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (0.724), CRB-65 (0.780), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (0.809), and National Early Warning Score 2 (0.838). Moreover, prehospital PRIEST scores were positively correlated with numbers of comorbidities and numbers of prehospital treatment measures. The 30-day survival rate of patients with PRIEST scores ≤12 (98.8%) significantly exceeded that of patients with PRIEST scores >12 (69.1%) (p < 0.001). Prehospital PRIEST scores >12 (HR = 7.409) was one of the independent predictors of the 30-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The PRIEST can accurately, quickly, and conveniently predict the 30-day mortality of COVID-19 patients with pneumonia in the prehospital phase and can guide their initial risk stratification and treatment.

A Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial of Leronlimab in Mild-To-Moderate COVID-19

PURPOSE

Early in the course of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic it was hypothesised that host genetics played a role in the pathophysiology of COVID-19 including a suggestion that the CCR5-Δ32 mutation may be protective in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Leronlimab is an investigational CCR5-specific humanized IgG4 monoclonal antibody currently in development for HIV-1 infection. We aimed to explore the impact of leronlimab on the severity of disease symptoms among participants with mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

METHODS

The TEMPEST trial was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in participants with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. Participants were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to receive subcutaneous leronlimab (700 mg) or placebo on days 0 and 7. The primary efficacy endpoint was assessed by change in total symptom score based on fever, myalgia, dyspnea, and cough, at end of treatment (day 14).

FINDINGS

Overall, 84 participants were randomized and treated with leronlimab (n = 56) or placebo (n = 28). No difference was observed in change in total symptom score (P = 0.8184) or other pre-specified secondary endpoints between treatments. However, in a post hoc analysis, 50.0% of participants treated with leronlimab demonstrated improvements from baseline in National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) at day 14, compared with 20·8% of participants in the placebo group (post hoc; p = 0.0223). Among participants in this trial with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 adverse events rates were numerically but not statistically significantly lower in leronlimab participants (33.9%) compared with placebo participants (50.0%).

IMPLICATIONS

At the time the TEMPEST trial was designed although CCR5 was known to be implicated in COVID-19 disease severity the exact pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection was poorly understood. Today it is well accepted that SARS-CoV-2 infection in asymptomatic-to-mild cases is primarily characterized by viral replication, with a heightened immune response, accompanied by diminished viral replication in moderate-to-severe disease and a peak in inflammatory responses with excessive production of pro-inflammatory cytokines in critical disease. It is therefore perhaps not surprising that no differences between treatments were observed in the primary endpoint or in pre-specified secondary endpoints among participants with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. However, the results of the exploratory post hoc analysis showing that participants in the leronlimab group had greater improvement in NEWS2 assessment compared to placebo provided a suggestion that leronlimab may be associated with a lower likelihood of people with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 progressing to more severe disease and needs to be confirmed in other appropriately designed clinical trials.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov number, NCT04343651 https://classic.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov/ct2/show/NCT04343651.

A novel deterioration prediction system for mild COVID-19 patients in Korea: a retrospective study

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic presents serious public health threats. Omicron, the current most prevalent strain of COVID-19, has a low fatality rate and very high transmissibility, so the number of patients with mild symptoms of COVID-19 is rapidly increasing. This change of pandemic challenges medical systems worldwide in many aspects, including sharp increases in demands for hospital infrastructure, critical shortages in medical equipment, and medical staff. Predicting deterioration in mild patients could alleviate these problems. A novel scoring system was proposed for predicting the deterioration of patients whose condition may worsen rapidly and those who all still mild or asymptomatic. Retrospective cohorts of 954 and 2,035 patients that quarantined in the Residential Treatment Center were assembled for derivation and external validation of mild COVID-19, respectively. Deterioration was defined as transfer to a local hospital due to worsening condition of the patients during the 2-week isolation period. A total of 15 variables: sex, age, seven pre-existing conditions (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, liver disease, kidney disease, and organ transplant), and five vital signs (systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), heart rate (HR), body temperature, and oxygen saturation (SpO2)) were collected. A scoring system was developed using seven variables (age, pulse rate, SpO2, SBP, DBP, temperature, and hypertension) with significant differences between the transfer and not transfer groups in logistic regression. The proposed system was compared with existing scoring systems that assess the severity of patient conditions. The performance of the proposed scoring system to predict deterioration in patients with mild COVID-19 showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) of 0.868. This is a statistically significant improvement compared to the performance of the previous patient condition assessment scoring systems. During external validation, the proposed system showed the best and most robust predictive performance (AUC = 0.768; accuracy = 0.899). In conclusion, we proposed a novel scoring system for predicting patients with mild COVID-19 who will experience deterioration which could predict the deterioration of the patient's condition early with high predictive performance. Furthermore, because the scoring system does not require special calculations, it can be easily measured to predict the deterioration of a patients' condition. This system can be used as effective tool for early detection of deterioration in mild COVID-19 patients.

Implementation of a digital early warning score (NEWS2) in a cardiac specialist and general hospital settings in the COVID-19 pandemic: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate implementation of digital National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in a cardiac care setting and a general hospital setting in the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

Thematic analysis of qualitative semistructured interviews using the non-adoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread, sustainability framework with purposefully sampled nurses and managers, as well as online surveys from March to December 2021.

SETTINGS

Specialist cardiac hospital (St Bartholomew's Hospital) and general teaching hospital (University College London Hospital, UCLH).

PARTICIPANTS

Eleven nurses and managers from cardiology, cardiac surgery, oncology and intensive care wards (St Bartholomew's) and medical, haematology and intensive care wards (UCLH) were interviewed and 67 were surveyed online.

RESULTS

Three main themes emerged: (1) implementing NEWS2 challenges and supports; (2) value of NEWS2 to alarm, escalate and during the pandemic; and (3) digitalisation: electronic health record (EHR) integration and automation. The value of NEWS2 was partly positive in escalation, yet there were concerns by nurses who undervalued NEWS2 particularly in cardiac care. Challenges, like clinicians' behaviours, lack of resources and training and the perception of NEWS2 value, limit the success of this implementation. Changes in guidelines in the pandemic have led to overlooking NEWS2. EHR integration and automated monitoring are improvement solutions that are not fully employed yet.

CONCLUSION

Whether in specialist or general medical settings, the health professionals implementing early warning score in healthcare face cultural and system-related challenges to adopting NEWS2 and digital solutions. The validity of NEWS2 in specialised settings and complex conditions is not yet apparent and requires comprehensive validation. EHR integration and automation are powerful tools to facilitate NEWS2 if its principles are reviewed and rectified, and resources and training are accessible. Further examination of implementation from the cultural and automation domains is needed.

Severity of Illness Scores and Biomarkers for Prognosis of Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019

The spectrum of disease severity and the insidiousness of clinical presentation make it difficult to recognize patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at higher risk of worse outcomes or death when they are seen in the early phases of the disease. There are now well-established risk factors for worse outcomes in patients with COVID-19. These should be factored in when assessing the prognosis of these patients. However, a more precise prognostic assessment in an individual patient may warrant the use of predictive tools. In this manuscript, we conduct a literature review on the severity of illness scores and biomarkers for the prognosis of patients with COVID-19. Several COVID-19-specific scores have been developed since the onset of the pandemic. Some of them are promising and can be integrated into the assessment of these patients. We also found that the well-known pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 (confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, BP, age ≥ 65 years) are good predictors of mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. While neither the PSI nor the CURB-65 should be used for the triage of outpatient versus inpatient treatment, they can be integrated by a clinician into the assessment of disease severity and can be used in epidemiological studies to determine the severity of illness in patient populations. Biomarkers also provide valuable prognostic information and, importantly, may depict the main physiological derangements in severe disease. We, however, do not advocate the isolated use of severity of illness scores or biomarkers for decision-making in an individual patient. Instead, we suggest the use of these tools on a case-by-case basis with the goal of enhancing clinician judgment.

Brixia and qSOFA Scores, Coagulation Factors and Blood Values in Spring versus Autumn 2021 Infection in Pregnant Critical COVID-19 Patients: A Preliminary Study

(1) Background: From the recent variants of concern of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, in which the delta variant generated more negative outcomes than the alpha, we hypothesized that lung involvement, clinical condition deterioration and blood alterations were also more severe in autumn infection, when the delta variant dominated (compared with spring infections, when the alpha variant dominated), in severely infected pregnant patients. (2) Methods: In a prospective study, all pregnant patients admitted to the ICU of the Elena Doamna Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital with a critical form of COVID-19 infection-spring group (n = 11) and autumn group (n = 7)-between 1 January 2021 and 1 December 2021 were included. Brixia scores were calculated for every patient: A score, upon admittance; H score, the highest score throughout hospitalization; and E score, at the end of hospitalization. For each day of Brixia A, H or E score, the qSOFA (quick sepsis-related organ failure assessment) score was calculated, and the blood values were also considered. (3) Results: Brixia E score, C-reactive protein, GGT and LDH were much higher, while neutrophil count was much lower in autumn compared with spring critical-form pregnant patients. (4) Conclusions: the autumn infection generated more dramatic alterations than the spring infection in pregnant patients with critical forms of COVID-19. Larger studies with more numerous participants are required to confirm these results.

CURB-65, qSOFA, and SIRS Criteria in Predicting In-Hospital Mortality of Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients; a Prognostic Accuracy Study

INTRODUCTION

Outcome prediction of intensive care unit (ICU)-admitted patients is one of the important issues for physicians. This study aimed to compare the accuracy of Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure and Age Above or Below 65 Years (CURB-65), and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) scores in predicting the in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

This prognostic accuracy study was performed on 225 ICU-admitted patients with a definitive diagnosis of COVID-19 from July to December 2021 in Tehran, Iran. The patients' clinical characteristics were evaluated at the time of ICU admission, and they were followed up until discharge from ICU. The screening performance characteristics of CURB-65, qSOFA, and SIRS in predicting their mortality was compared.

RESULTS

225 patients with the mean age of 63.27±14.89 years were studied (56.89% male). The in-hospital mortality rate of this series of patients was 39.10%. The area under the curve (AUC) of SIRS, CURB-65, and qSOFA were 0.62 (95% CI: 0.55 - 0.69), 0.66 (95% CI: 0.59 - 0.73), and 0.61(95% CI: 0.54 - 0.67), respectively (p = 0.508). In cut-off ≥1, the estimated sensitivity values of SIRS, CURB-65, and qSOFA were 85.23%, 96.59%, and 78.41%, respectively. The estimated specificity of scores were 34.31%, 6.57%, and 38.69%, respectively. In cut-off ≥2, the sensitivity values of SIRS, CURB-65, and qSOFA were evaluated as 39.77%, 87.50%, and 15.91%, respectively. Meanwhile, the specificity of scores were 72.99%, 34.31%, and 92.70%.

CONCLUSIONS

It seems that the performance of SIRS, CURB-65, and qSOFA is similar in predicting the ICU mortality of COVID-19 patients. However, the sensitivity of CURB-65 is higher than qSOFA and SIRS.

Clinical update on COVID-19 for the emergency clinician: Presentation and evaluation

INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in millions of cases worldwide. As the pandemic has progressed, the understanding of this disease has evolved.

OBJECTIVE

This first in a two-part series on COVID-19 updates provides a focused overview of the presentation and evaluation of COVID-19 for emergency clinicians.

DISCUSSION

COVID-19, caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Several variants exist, including a variant of concern known as Delta (B.1.617.2 lineage) and the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage). The Delta variant is associated with higher infectivity and poor patient outcomes, and the Omicron variant has resulted in a significant increase in infections. While over 80% of patients experience mild symptoms, a significant proportion can be critically ill, including those who are older and those with comorbidities. Upper respiratory symptoms, fever, and changes in taste/smell remain the most common presenting symptoms. Extrapulmonary complications are numerous and may be severe, including the cardiovascular, neurologic, gastrointestinal, and dermatologic systems. Emergency department evaluation includes focused testing for COVID-19 and assessment of end-organ injury. Imaging may include chest radiography, computed tomography, or ultrasound. Several risk scores may assist in prognostication, including the 4C (Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium) score, quick COVID Severity Index (qCSI), NEWS2, and the PRIEST score, but these should only supplement and not replace clinical judgment.

CONCLUSION

This review provides a focused update of the presentation and evaluation of COVID-19 for emergency clinicians.

A systematic review of the discrimination and absolute mortality predicted by the National Early Warning Scores according to different cut-off values and prediction windows

BACKGROUND

Although early warning scores were intended to simply identify patients in need of life-saving interventions, prediction has become their commonest metric. This review examined variation in the ability of the National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) in adult patients to predict absolute mortality at different times and cut-offs values.

METHOD

Following PRISMA guidelines, all studies reporting NEWS and NEWS2 providing enough information to fulfil the review's aims were included.

RESULTS

From 121 papers identified, the average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality declined from 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days. Studies with a low overall mortality had a higher AUC for 24-hour mortality, as did general ward patients compared to patients seen earlier in their treatment. 24-hour mortality increased from 1.8% for a NEWS ≥3 to 7.8% for NEWS ≥7. Although 24-hour mortality for NEWS <3 was only 0.07% these deaths accounted for 9% of all deaths within 24-hours; for NEWS <7 24-hour mortality was 0.23%, which accounted for 44% of all 24-hour deaths. Within 30-days of a NEWS recording 22% of all deaths occurred in patients with a NEWS <3, 52% in patients with a NEWS <5, and 75% in patient with a NEWS <7.

CONCLUSION

NEWS reliably identifies patients most and least likely to die within 24-hours, which is what it was designed to do. However, many patients identified to have a low risk of imminent death die within 30-days. NEWS mortality predictions beyond 24-hours are unreliable.

Cardiovascular signatures of COVID-19 predict mortality and identify barrier stabilizing therapies

Background

Endothelial cell (EC) activation, endotheliitis, vascular permeability, and thrombosis have been observed in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), indicating that the vasculature is affected during the acute stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection. It remains unknown whether circulating vascular markers are sufficient to predict clinical outcomes, are unique to COVID-19, and if vascular permeability can be therapeutically targeted.

Methods

Prospectively evaluating the prevalence of circulating inflammatory, cardiac, and EC activation markers as well as developing a microRNA atlas in 241 unvaccinated patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection allowed for prognostic value assessment using a Random Forest model machine learning approach. Subsequent ex vivo experiments assessed EC permeability responses to patient plasma and were used to uncover modulated gene regulatory networks from which rational therapeutic design was inferred.

Findings

Multiple inflammatory and EC activation biomarkers were associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients and in severity-matched SARS-CoV-2-negative patients, while dysregulation of specific microRNAs at presentation was specific for poor COVID-19-related outcomes and revealed disease-relevant pathways. Integrating the datasets using a machine learning approach further enhanced clinical risk prediction for in-hospital mortality. Exposure of ECs to COVID-19 patient plasma resulted in severity-specific gene expression responses and EC barrier dysfunction, which was ameliorated using angiopoietin-1 mimetic or recombinant Slit2-N.

Interpretation

Integration of multi-omics data identified microRNA and vascular biomarkers prognostic of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients and revealed that vascular stabilizing therapies should be explored as a treatment for endothelial dysfunction in COVID-19, and other severe diseases where endothelial dysfunction has a central role in pathogenesis.

Funding Information

This work was directly supported by grant funding from the Ted Rogers Center for Heart Research, Toronto, Ontario, Canada and the Peter Munk Cardiac Center, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

The PaCO2/FiO2 ratio as outcome predictor in SARS-COV-2 related pneumonia: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Respiratory failure in SARS-CoV-2 patients is characterized by the presence of hypoxemia and hypocapnia without relevant dyspnea. To date, the use of respiratory parameters other than PaO2/FiO2 ratio to stratify the risk of worsening of these patients has not been sufficiently studied.  Aim of this work was to evaluate whether the ratio between partial pressure levels of carbon dioxide (PaCO2) and the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) measured at emergency department (ED) admission is predictive of the clinical course of patients suffering from SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia.

METHODS

We retrospectively studied 236 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia evaluated at the ED of the Perugia Hospital. The end-points were: in-hospital mortality, need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and length of in-hospital stay (LOS). Clinical, blood gas and laboratory data were collected at ED admission.

RESULTS

Of the 236 patients 157 were male, the mean age was 64 ± 16. Thirtythree patients (14%) needed IMV, 49 died (21%). In the univariate analysis, the PaCO2/FiO2 ratio was inversely associated with the need for IMV (p <0.001), mortality (p <0.001) and LOS (p = 0.005). At the multivariate analysis the PaCO2/FiO2 ratio was found to be predictive of the need for IMV, independently from age, gender, number of comorbidities, neutrophils, lymphocytes, glomerular filtrate, d-dimer, LDH and CRP.

CONCLUSIONS

the PaCO2/FiO2 ratio is predictive of the risk of respiratory failure worsening in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, independently from other several confounding factors.

Risk Factors, Characteristics, and Outcome in Non-Ventilated Patients with Spontaneous Pneumothorax or Pneumomediastinum Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Background and Objectives

Spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) and spontaneous pneumomediastinum (SPM) have frequently been cited as complications associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia, with especially poor prognosis in mechanically ventilated patients. The current literature is controversial regarding the potential risk factors for developing SP or SPM (SP-SPM) in non-ventilated COVID-19 patients. Our research addressed a twofold objective: (a) to investigate the characteristics of patients with SP-SPM (both with and without COVID-19) and compare them to patients with sole COVID-19; (b) to quantify the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with SP-SPM and COVID-19.

Patients and Methods

A retrospective case–control study was conducted in the emergency departments (ED) of two tertiary hospitals in Timisoara, Romania, over one year (1st April 2020‒31st March 2021; 64,845 records in total) and 70 cases of SP-SPM were identified (both SARS-CoV-2 positives and negatives). The control group comprised COVID-19 patients with no SP-SPM, included at a 2:1 ratio. Logistic regression was employed to quantify the in-hospital mortality risk associated with age, SP-SPM, and COVID-19.

Results

SP-SPM and COVID-19 were connected with prolonged hospitalization, a higher percentage of intensive care admission, and a higher mortality. SP-SPM increased the odds of death by almost four times in patients of the same age, gender, smoking status, and SARS-CoV-2 infection: OR = 3.758, 95% CI (1.443–9.792). Each additional year of age added 9.4% to the mortality risk: OR = 1.094, 95% CI (1.054–1.135).

Conclusion

ED physicians should acknowledge these potential risks when attending COVID-19 patients with SP-SPM.

Utility of early warning scores to predict mortality in COVID-19 patients: A retrospective observational study

Background:

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) has evolved as a global pandemic. The patients with COVID-19 infection can present as mild, moderate, and severe disease forms. The reported mortality of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) infection is around 6.6%, which is lower than that of SARS-CoV and (middle east respiratory syndrome CoV). However, the fatality rate of COVID-19 infection is higher in the geriatric age group and in patients with multiple co-morbidities. The study aimed to evaluate the utility of early warning scores (EWS) to predict mortality in patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 infection.

Methods:

This retrospective study was carried out in a tertiary care institute of Uttarakhand. Demographic and clinical data of the admitted patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 infection were collected from the hospital record section and utilized to calculate the EWS-National early warning score (NEWS), modified early warning score (MEWS), Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), and worthing physiological scoring system (WPS).

Results:

The area under the curve for NEWS, MEWS, RAPS, REMS, and WPS was 0.813 (95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.769–0.858), 0.770 (95% CI; 0.717–0.822), 0.755 (95% CI; 0.705–0.805), 0.892 (95% CI; 0.859–0.924), and 0.892 (95% CI; 0.86–0.924), respectively.

Conclusion:

The EWS at triage can be used for early assessment of severity as well as predict mortality in patients with COVID-19 patients.

Individual outcome prediction models for patients with COVID-19 based on their first day of admission to the intensive care unit

Background

Currently, good prognosis and management of critically ill patients with COVID-19 are crucial for developing disease management guidelines and providing a viable healthcare system. We aimed to propose individual outcome prediction models based on binary logistic regression (BLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) analyses of data collected in the first 24 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for patients with COVID-19 infection. We also analysed different variables for ICU patients who survived and those who died.

Methods

Data from 326 critically ill patients with COVID-19 were collected. Data were captured on laboratory variables, demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and hospital stay related information. These data were compared with patient outcomes (survivor and non-survivor patients). BLR was assessed using the Wald Forward Stepwise method, and the ANN model was constructed using multilayer perceptron architecture.

Results

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the ANN model was significantly larger than the BLR model (0.917 vs 0.810; p<0.001) for predicting individual outcomes. In addition, ANN model presented similar negative predictive value than the BLR model (95.9% vs 94.8%).

Variables such as age, pH, potassium ion, partial pressure of oxygen, and chloride were present in both models and they were significant predictors of death in COVID-19 patients.

Conclusions

Our study could provide helpful information for other hospitals to develop their own individual outcome prediction models based, mainly, on laboratory variables. Furthermore, it offers valuable information on which variables could predict a fatal outcome for ICU patients with COVID-19.

The feasibility of home self-assessment of vital signs and symptoms: A new key to telehealth for individuals?

Objective

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing and self-isolation called for innovative, readily implementable, and effective short-term health solutions. The objective of this study was to assess the feasibility of self-assessment of vital signs and symptoms with electronic transmission of results, by self-isolating individuals with positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. The secondary objective was to describe the association between the presence of abnormal vital signs and severe symptoms as well as their evolution over time.

Method

Participants with positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test were asked to perform twice daily standardized vital signs measurements and self-assessment of symptoms for 14 consecutive days. All data were transmitted electronically through a mobile application and a web-based platform. Participants were provided with decision support tools based on the severity of their condition and a weekly nurse practitioner telephone follow-up. Abnormal values for vital signs and severe symptoms were determined. Per participant and per days, proportions of abnormal vital signs and severe symptoms were calculated.

Results

Data from 46 participants (mean age 54.1 ± 6.9 years, 54% male) were available for analysis. On average, participants performed the standardized self-assessment for 12.3 ± 3.4 days (89% performed at least 7 measurement days and 61% completed all 14 days). The highest proportions abnormal values for vital signs were for oximetry (20.1%) and respiratory rate (12.1%). The highest proportions of severe symptoms were for fatigue (16.9%) and myalgia. (10.2%). The combined proportion of abnormal vital signs and severe symptoms was maximal on day 1 with 20.3% of total measurements, with a linear decrease to 3.5% on day 14.

Conclusion

Remote initiation of home measurements of vital signs and symptoms, self-management of these measures, accompanied by a decision support tool and supported by preplanned nurse follow-up are feasible. This could allow to opening up new insight for the care of sick individuals.

Impact of cardiovascular disease on clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with Covid-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Contrasting data have been published about the impact of cardiovascular disease on Covid-19. A comprehensive synthesis and pooled analysis of the available evidence is needed to guide prioritization of prevention strategies. To clarify the association of cardiovascular disease with Covid-19 outcomes, we searched PubMed up to 26 October 2020, for studies reporting the prevalence of cardiovascular disease among inpatients with Covid-19 in relation to their outcomes. Pooled odds-ratios (OR) for death, for mechanical ventilation or admission in an intensive care unit (ICU) and for composite outcomes were calculated using random effect models overall and in the subgroup of people with comorbid diabetes. Thirty-three studies enrolling 52,857 inpatients were included. Cardiovascular disease was associated with a higher risk of death both overall (OR 2.58, 95% confidence intervals, CI 2.12-3.14, p < 0.001, number of studies 24) and in the subgroup of people with diabetes (OR 2.91, 95% CI 2.13-3.97, p < 0.001, number of studies 4), but not with higher risk of ICU admission or mechanical ventilation (OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.73-2.50, p = 0.34, number of studies 4). Four out of five studies reporting OR adjusted for confounders failed to show independent association of cardiovascular disease with Covid-19 deaths. Accordingly, the adjusted-OR for Covid-19 death in people with cardiovascular disease dropped to 1.31 (95% CI 1.01-1.70, p = 0.041). Among patients hospitalized for Covid-19, cardiovascular disease confers higher risk of death, which was highly mitigated when adjusting the association for confounders.

The Value of Physiological Scoring Criteria in Predicting the In-Hospital Mortality of Acute Patients; a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is no comprehensive meta-analysis on the value of physiological scoring systems in predicting the mortality of critically ill patients. Therefore, the present study intended to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to collect the available clinical evidence on the value of physiological scoring systems in predicting the in-hospital mortality of acute patients.

METHOD

An extensive search was performed on Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases until the end of year 2020. Physiological models included Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS), Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS), modified REMS (mREMS), and Worthing Physiological Score (WPS). Finally, the data were summarized and the findings were presented as summary receiver operating characteristics (SROC), sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR).

RESULTS

Data from 25 articles were included. The overall analysis showed that the area under the SROC curve of REMS, RAPS, mREMS, and WPS criteria were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.79-0.86), 0.89 (95% CI: 0.86-0.92), 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60-0.68) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.89), respectively. DOR for REMS, RAPS, mREMS and WPS models were 11 (95% CI: 8-16), 13 (95% CI: 4-41), 2 (95% CI: 2-4) and 17 (95% CI: 5-59) respectively. When analyses were limited to trauma patients, the DOR of the REMS and RAPS models were 112 and 431, respectively. Due to the lack of sufficient studies, it was not possible to limit the analyses for mREMS and WPS.

CONCLUSION

The findings of the present study showed that three models of RAPS, REMS and WPS have a high predictive value for in-hospital mortality. In addition, the value of these models in trauma patients is much higher than other patient settings.

The Prognostic Accuracy of National Early Warning Score 2 on Predicting Clinical Deterioration for Patients With COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is recommended for the risk stratification of COVID-19 patients, but little is known about its ability to detect severe cases. Therefore, our purpose is to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 on predicting clinical deterioration for patients with COVID-19. Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library from December 2019 to March 2021. Clinical deterioration was defined as the need for intensive respiratory support, admission to the intensive care unit, or in-hospital death. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS2 in different conditions. Results: Eighteen studies with 6,922 participants were included. The NEWS2 of five or more was commonly used for predicting clinical deterioration. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were 0.82, 0.67, and 0.82, respectively. Benefitting from adding a new SpO₂ scoring scale for patients with hypercapnic respiratory failure, the NEWS2 showed better sensitivity (0.82 vs. 0.75) and discrimination (0.82 vs. 0.76) than the original NEWS. In addition, the NEWS2 was a sensitive method (sensitivity: 0.88) for predicting short-term deterioration within 72 h. Conclusions: The NEWS2 had moderate sensitivity and specificity in predicting the deterioration of patients with COVID-19. Our results support the use of NEWS2 monitoring as a sensitive method to initially assess COVID-19 patients at hospital admission, although it has a relatively high false-trigger rate. Our findings indicated that the development of enhanced or modified NEWS may be necessary.

Performance Analysis of the National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score in the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial Cohort

We sought to validate prognostic scores in coronavirus disease 2019 including National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and age-based modifications, and define their performance characteristics.

DESIGN

We analyzed prospectively collected data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial. National Early Warning Score was collected daily during the trial, Modified Early Warning Score was calculated, and age applied to both scores. We assessed prognostic value for the end points of recovery, mechanical ventilation, and death for score at enrollment, average, and slope of score over the first 48 hours.

SETTING

A multisite international inpatient trial.

PATIENTS

A total of 1,062 adult nonpregnant inpatients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 pneumonia.

INTERVENTIONS

Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 randomized participants to receive remdesivir or placebo. The prognostic value of predictive scores was evaluated in both groups separately to assess for differential performance in the setting of remdesivir treatment.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

For mortality, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.60-0.68), and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.66-0.74). For recovery, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated somewhat better prognostic ability (c-index, 0.65-0.69); however, National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age further improved performance (c-index, 0.68-0.71). For deterioration, baseline National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score were weakly to moderately prognostic (c-index, 0.59-0.69) and improved with addition of age (c-index, 0.63-0.70). All prognostic performance improvements due to addition of age were significant (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial 1 cohort, National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score demonstrated moderate prognostic performance in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019, with improvement in predictive ability for National Early Warning Score+age and Modified Early Warning Score+age. Area under receiver operating curve for National Early Warning Score and Modified Early Warning Score improved in patients receiving remdesivir versus placebo early in the pandemic for recovery and mortality. Although these scores are simple and readily obtainable in myriad settings, in our data set, they were insufficiently predictive to completely replace clinical judgment in coronavirus disease 2019 and may serve best as an adjunct to triage, disposition, and resourcing decisions.

Early Warning Scores at Time of ICU Admission to Predict Mortality in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

OBJECTIVE

To assess ability of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), and CRB-65 calculated at the time of intensive care unit (ICU) admission for predicting ICU mortality in patients of laboratory confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.

METHODS

This prospective data analysis was based on chart reviews for laboratory confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs over a 1-mo period. The NEWS2, CRB-65, qSOFA, and SIRS were calculated from the first recorded vital signs upon admission to ICU and assessed for predicting mortality.

RESULTS

Total of 140 patients aged between 18 and 95 y were included in the analysis of whom majority were >60 y (47.8%), with evidence of pre-existing comorbidities (67.1%). The most common symptom at presentation was dyspnea (86.4%). Based upon the receiver operating characteristics area under the curve (AUC), the best discriminatory power to predict ICU mortality was for the CRB-65 (AUC: 0.720 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.630-0.811]) followed closely by NEWS2 (AUC: 0.712 [95% CI: 0.622-0.803]). Additionally, a multivariate Cox regression model showed Glasgow Coma Scale score at time of admission (P < 0.001; adjusted hazard ratio = 0.808 [95% CI: 0.715-0.911]) to be the only significant predictor of ICU mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

CRB-65 and NEWS2 scores assessed at the time of ICU admission offer only a fair discriminatory value for predicting mortality. Further evaluation after adding laboratory markers such as C-reactive protein and D-dimer may yield a more useful prediction model. Much of the earlier data is from developed countries and uses scoring at time of hospital admission. This study was from a developing country, with the scores assessed at time of ICU admission, rather than the emergency department as with existing data from developed countries, for patients with moderate/severe COVID-19 disease. Because the scores showed some utility for predicting ICU mortality even when measured at time of ICU admission, their use in allocation of limited ICU resources in a developing country merits further research.

iCovidCare: Intelligent health monitoring framework for COVID-19 using ensemble random forest in edge networks

The COVID-19 outbreak is in its growing stage due to the lack of standard diagnosis for the patients. In recent times, various models with machine learning have been developed to predict and diagnose novel coronavirus. However, the existing models fail to take an instant decision for detecting the COVID-19 patient immediately and cannot handle multiple medical sensor data for disease prediction. To handle such challenges, we propose an intelligent health monitoring and prediction framework, namely the iCovidCare model for predicting the health status of COVID-19 patients using the ensemble Random Forest (eRF) technique in edge networks. In the proposed framework, a rule-based policy is designed on the local edge devices to detect the risk factor of a patient immediately using monitoring Temperature sensor values. The real-time health monitoring parameters of different medical sensors are transmitted to the centralized cloud servers for future health prediction of the patients. The standard eRF technique is used to predict the health status of the patients using the proposed data fusion and feature selection strategy by selecting the most significant features for disease prediction. The proposed iCovidCare model is evaluated with a synthetic COVID-19 dataset and compared with the standard classification models based on various performance matrices to show its effectiveness. The proposed model has achieved 95.13% accuracy, which is higher than the standard classification models.

Predicting Poor Outcome of COVID-19 Patients on the Day of Admission with the COVID-19 Score

Background

COVID-19 may result in multiorgan failure and death. Early detection of patients at risk may allow triage and more intense monitoring. The aim of this study was to develop a simple, objective admission score, based on laboratory tests, that identifies patients who are likely going to deteriorate.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of all COVID-19 patients admitted to a tertiary academic medical center in New York City during the COVID-19 crisis in spring 2020. The primary combined endpoint included intubation, stage 3 acute kidney injury (AKI), or death. Laboratory tests available on admission in at least 70% of patients (and age) were included for univariate analysis. Tests that were statistically or clinically significant were then included in a multivariate binary logistic regression model using stepwise exclusion. 70% of all patients were used to train the model, and 30% were used as an internal validation cohort. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a model for COVID-19 severity based on biomarkers.

Results

Out of 2545 patients, 833 (32.7%) experienced the primary endpoint. 53 laboratory tests were analyzed, and of these, 47 tests (and age) were significantly different between patients with and without the endpoint. The final multivariate model included age, albumin, creatinine, C-reactive protein, and lactate dehydrogenase. The area under the ROC curve was 0.850 (CI [95%]: 0.813, 0.889), with a sensitivity of 0.800 and specificity of 0.761. The probability of experiencing the primary endpoint can be calculated as p=e^{(−2.4475+0.02492age − 0.6503albumin+0.81926creat+0.00388CRP+0.00143LDH)}/1+e^{(−2.4475+ 0.02492age − 0.6503albumin+0.81926creat+0.00388CRP+0.00143LDH)}.

Conclusions

Our study demonstrated that poor outcome in COVID-19 patients can be predicted with good sensitivity and specificity using a few laboratory tests. This is useful for identifying patients at risk during admission.

Tocilizumab in COVID-19 interstitial pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Published reports on tocilizumab in COVID-19 pneumonitis show conflicting results due to weak designs or heterogeneity in critical methodological issues.

METHODS

This open-label trial, structured according to Simon's optimal design, aims to identify factors predicting which patients could benefit from anti-IL6 strategies and to enhance the design of unequivocal and reliable future randomized trials. A total of 46 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia needing of oxygen therapy to maintain SO2 > 93% and with recent worsening of lung function received a single infusion of tocilizumab. Clinical and biological markers were measured to test their predictive values. Primary end point was early and sustained clinical response.

RESULTS

Twenty-one patients fulfilled pre-defined response criteria. Lower levels of IL-6 at 24 h after tocilizumab infusion (P = 0.049) and higher baseline values of PaO2/FiO2 (P = 0.008) predicted a favourable response.

CONCLUSIONS

Objective clinical response rate overcame the pre-defined threshold of 30%. Efficacy of tocilizumab to improve respiratory function in patients selected according to our inclusion criteria warrants investigations in randomized trials.

Stratifying Deterioration Risk by Acuity at Admission Offers Triage Insights for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients

OBJECTIVES

Triaging patients at admission to determine subsequent deterioration risk can be difficult. This is especially true of coronavirus disease 2019 patients, some of whom experience significant physiologic deterioration due to dysregulated immune response following admission. A well-established acuity measure, the Rothman Index, is evaluated for stratification of patients at admission into high or low risk of subsequent deterioration.

DESIGN

Multicenter retrospective study.

SETTING

One academic medical center in Connecticut, and three community hospitals in Connecticut and Maryland.

PATIENTS

Three thousand four hundred ninety-nine coronavirus disease 2019 and 14,658 noncoronavirus disease 2019 adult patients admitted to a medical service between January 1, 2020, and September 15, 2020.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Performance of the Rothman Index at admission to predict in-hospital mortality or ICU utilization for both general medical and coronavirus disease 2019 populations was evaluated using the area under the curve. Precision and recall for mortality prediction were calculated, high- and low-risk thresholds were determined, and patients meeting threshold criteria were characterized. The Rothman Index at admission has good to excellent discriminatory performance for in-hospital mortality in the coronavirus disease 2019 (area under the curve, 0.81-0.84) and noncoronavirus disease 2019 (area under the curve, 0.90-0.92) populations. We show that for a given admission acuity, the risk of deterioration for coronavirus disease 2019 patients is significantly higher than for noncoronavirus disease 2019 patients. At admission, Rothman Index-based thresholds segregate the majority of patients into either high- or low-risk groups; high-risk groups have mortality rates of 34-45% (coronavirus disease 2019) and 17-25% (noncoronavirus disease 2019), whereas low-risk groups have mortality rates of 2-5% (coronavirus disease 2019) and 0.2-0.4% (noncoronavirus disease 2019). Similarly large differences in ICU utilization are also found.

CONCLUSIONS

Acuity level at admission may support rapid and effective risk triage. Notably, in-hospital mortality risk associated with a given acuity at admission is significantly higher for coronavirus disease 2019 patients than for noncoronavirus disease 2019 patients. This insight may help physicians more effectively triage coronavirus disease 2019 patients, guiding level of care decisions and resource allocation.

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign: Research Priorities for Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Critical Illness

OBJECTIVES

To identify research priorities in the management, pathophysiology, and host response of coronavirus disease 2019 in critically ill patients.

DESIGN

The Surviving Sepsis Research Committee, a multiprofessional group of 17 international experts representing the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine and Society of Critical Care Medicine, was virtually convened during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The committee iteratively developed the recommendations and subsequent document.

METHODS

Each committee member submitted a list of what they believed were the most important priorities for coronavirus disease 2019 research. The entire committee voted on 58 submitted questions to determine top priorities for coronavirus disease 2019 research.

RESULTS

The Surviving Sepsis Research Committee provides 13 priorities for coronavirus disease 2019. Of these, the top six priorities were identified and include the following questions: 1) Should the approach to ventilator management differ from the standard approach in patients with acute hypoxic respiratory failure?, 2) Can the host response be modulated for therapeutic benefit?, 3) What specific cells are directly targeted by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and how do these cells respond?, 4) Can early data be used to predict outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 and, by extension, to guide therapies?, 5) What is the role of prone positioning and noninvasive ventilation in nonventilated patients with coronavirus disease?, and 6) Which interventions are best to use for viral load modulation and when should they be given?

CONCLUSIONS

Although knowledge of both biology and treatment has increased exponentially in the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, significant knowledge gaps remain. The research priorities identified represent a roadmap for investigation in coronavirus disease 2019.

Early Warning Scores in Patients with Suspected COVID-19 Infection in Emergency Departments

Early warning scores (EWSs) help prevent and recognize and thereby act as the first signs of clinical and physiological deterioration. The objective of this study is to evaluate different EWSs (National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), quick sequential organ failure assessment score (qSOFA), Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (MREMS) and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS)) to predict mortality within the first 48 h in patients suspected to have Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a retrospective observational study in patients over 18 years of age who were treated by the advanced life support units and transferred to the emergency departments between March and July of 2020. Each patient was followed for two days registering their final diagnosis and mortality data. A total of 663 patients were included in our study. Early mortality within the first 48 h affected 53 patients (8.3%). The scale with the best capacity to predict early mortality was the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2), with an area under the curve of 0.825 (95% CI: 0.75–0.89). The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) positive patients presented an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.804 (95% CI: 0.71–0.89), and the negative ones with an AUC of 0.863 (95% CI: 0.76–0.95). Among the EWSs, NEWS2 presented the best predictive power, even when it was separately applied to patients who tested positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2.

The performance of the National Early Warning Score and National Early Warning Score 2 in hospitalised patients infected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

INTRODUCTION

Since the introduction of the UK's National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its modification, NEWS2, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has caused a worldwide pandemic. NEWS and NEWS2 have good predictive abilities in patients with other infections and sepsis, however there is little evidence of their performance in COVID-19.

METHODS

Using receiver-operating characteristics analyses, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve to evaluate the performance of NEWS or NEWS2 to discriminate the combined outcome of either death or intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 24 h of a vital sign set in five cohorts (COVID-19 POSITIVE, n = 405; COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, n = 1716; COVID-19 NOT TESTED, n = 2686; CONTROL 2018, n = 6273; CONTROL 2019, n = 6523).

RESULTS

The AUROC values for NEWS or NEWS2 for the combined outcome were: COVID-19 POSITIVE, 0.882 (0.868-0.895); COVID-19 NOT DETECTED, 0.875 (0.861-0.89); COVID-19 NOT TESTED, 0.876 (0.85-0.902); CONTROL 2018, 0.894 (0.884-0.904); CONTROL 2019, 0.842 (0.829-0.855).

CONCLUSIONS

The finding that NEWS or NEWS2 performance was good and similar in all five cohorts (range = 0.842-0.894) suggests that amendments to NEWS or NEWS2, such as the addition of new covariates or the need to change the weighting of existing parameters, are unnecessary when evaluating patients with COVID-19. Our results support the national and international recommendations for the use of NEWS or NEWS2 for the assessment of acute-illness severity in patients with COVID-19.

Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease.

DESIGN

Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model.

DATA EXTRACTION

At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool).

RESULTS

37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models.

CONCLUSION

Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245.

READERS' NOTE

This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.