Regression Models for the Effects of Exposure Rate and Cumulative Exposure

Quantitative evaluation of radon, tobacco use and lung cancer association in an occupational cohort with 27 follow-up years

BACKGROUND

Occupational radon cohorts provide important information about exposure at residential level, which are difficult to observe prospectively. However, evidence about radon-related lung cancer risks from initial exposure in childhood or interaction between radon and smoking is still limited.

METHODS

A total of 6017 tin miners with at least 10 years of underground radon exposure were enrolled beginning in 1992 and followed for up to 27 years. Lung cancer risks were estimated by modeling total and intensity of radon exposure.

RESULTS

A total of 933 lung cancer cases occurred in this cohort over 89,092 person-years of follow up. Excess relative risk increased by 0.96% per cumulative working level month (WLM). A unique aspect of this population was the early age at first radon exposure for workers. Results showed that lung cancer risk from initial radon exposure in childhood (<13 years old) was greater than risk when first exposure occurred at later ages (13-17, 18-24, and ≥ 25 years old). Moreover, risk declined with years since last exposure and attained age, but increased with age at last exposure. Importantly, these patterns were stable after adjustment for tobacco use or arsenic exposure. For joint effects of radon and other agents, our results support sub-multiplicative as the most likely model for interaction between radon and tobacco use or arsenic exposure.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the possible importance of radon exposure in childhood in cancer etiology and suggests another potential strategy to mitigate the global lung cancer burden.

Lung and extrathoracic cancer incidence among underground uranium miners exposed to radon progeny in the Příbram region of the Czech Republic: a case-cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Radon is carcinogenic, but more studies are needed to understand relationships with lung cancer and extrathoracic cancers at low exposures. There are few studies evaluating associations with cancer incidence or assessing the modifying effects of smoking.

METHODS

We conducted a case-cohort study with 16 434 underground uranium miners in the Czech Republic with cancer incidence follow-up 1977-1996. Associations between radon exposure and lung cancer, and extrathoracic cancer, were estimated with linear excess relative rate (ERR) models. We examined potential modifying effects of smoking, time since exposure and exposure rate.

RESULTS

Under a simple ERR model, assuming a 5-year exposure lag, the estimated ERR of lung cancer per 100 working level months (WLM) was 0.54 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.83) and the estimated ERR of extrathoracic cancer per 100 WLM was 0.07 (95% CI -0.17 to 0.72). Most lung cancer cases were observed among smokers (82%), and the estimated ERR of lung cancer per 100 WLM was larger among smokers (ERR/100 WLM=1.35; 95% CI 0.84 to 2.15) than among never smokers (ERR/100 WLM=0.12; 95% CI -0.05 to 0.49). Among smokers, the estimated ERR of lung cancer per 100 WLM decreased with time since exposure from 3.07 (95% CI -0.04 to 10.32) in the period 5-14 years after exposure to 1.05 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.87) in the period 25+ years after exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed positive associations between cumulative radon exposure and lung cancer, consistent with prior studies. We observed a positive association between cumulative radon exposure and extrathoracic cancers, although the estimates were small. There was evidence that the association between radon and lung cancer was modified by smoking in a multiplicative or super-multiplicative fashion.

Long-term brain network reorganization predicts responsive neurostimulation outcomes for focal epilepsy

Responsive neurostimulation (RNS) devices, able to detect imminent seizures and to rapidly deliver electrical stimulation to the brain, are effective in reducing seizures in some patients with focal epilepsy. However, therapeutic response to RNS is often slow, is highly variable, and defies prognostication based on clinical factors. A prevailing view holds that RNS efficacy is primarily mediated by acute seizure termination; yet, stimulations greatly outnumber seizures and occur mostly in the interictal state, suggesting chronic modulation of brain networks that generate seizures. Here, using years-long intracranial neural recordings collected during RNS therapy, we found that patients with the greatest therapeutic benefit undergo progressive, frequency-dependent reorganization of interictal functional connectivity. The extent of this reorganization scales directly with seizure reduction and emerges within the first year of RNS treatment, enabling potential early prediction of therapeutic response. Our findings reveal a mechanism for RNS that involves network plasticity and may inform development of next-generation devices for epilepsy.

Low radon exposures and lung cancer risk: joint analysis of the Czech, French, and Beaverlodge cohorts of uranium miners

It is well established that high radon exposures increase the risk of lung cancer mortality. The effects of low occupational exposures and the factors that confound and modify this risk are not clear and are needed to inform current radiation protection of miners. The risk of lung cancer mortality at low radon exposures (< 100 working-level months) was assessed in the joint cohort analysis of Czech, French, and Canadian uranium miners, employed in 1953 or later. Statistical analysis was based on linear Poisson regression modeling with grouped cohort survival data. Two sensitivity analyses were used to assess potential confounding from tobacco smoking. A statistically significant linear relationship between radon exposure and lung cancer mortality was found. The excess relative risk per working-level month was 0.022 (95% confidence intervals: 0.013-0.034), based on 408 lung cancer deaths and 394,236 person-years of risk. Time since exposure was a statistically significant modifier; risk decreased with increasing time since exposure. A tendency for a decrease in risk with increasing attained age was observed, but this was not statistically significant. Exposure rate was not found to be a modifier of the excess relative risk. The potential confounding effect of tobacco smoking was estimated to be small and did not substantially change the radon-lung cancer mortality risk estimates. This joint cohort analysis provides strong evidence for an increased risk of lung cancer mortality from low occupational radon exposures. The results suggest that radiation protection measures continue to be important among current uranium miners.

Occupational silica exposure and mortality from lung cancer and nonmalignant respiratory disease: G-estimation of structural nested accelerated failure time models

BACKGROUND

Occupational exposure to crystalline silica is known to increase risks of both lung cancer and noninfectious nonmalignant respiratory diseases (NMRD). However, associations between silica exposure and survival times have not been described.

METHODS

In a longitudinal cohort of diatomaceous earth workers exposed to crystalline silica (primarily cristobalite) and followed from 1942 to 2011, we applied g-estimation of structural nested accelerated failure time models to adjust for time-varying confounding that could result in healthy worker survivor bias. A continuous measure of exposure was used in analyses estimating the hypothetical effect of banning exposure to silica on survival time. Since a ban is infeasible, sensitivity analyses examined the hypothetical effects of enforcing various Occupational Exposure Limits.

RESULTS

The estimated median number of years of life lost per worker (for all natural causes) due to silica exposure was 0.48 (95% confidence interval = 0.02, 1.01). For NMRD deaths, the corresponding estimate was 3.22 (0.82, 7.75) and for lung cancer deaths, 2.21 (0.97, 3.56). Cause-specific estimates were sensitive to the use of weights to adjust for competing events. Lung cancer mortality, which tended to occur at younger ages, was an important competing event for NMRD mortality. Sensitivity analyses supported the main results, but with larger estimates, and suggested that a strict limit would be nearly as effective as a complete ban on silica exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Workplace exposure to crystalline silica in this industry appears to shorten survival times significantly, particularly for those who die of lung cancer or NMRD. More stringent exposure limits are probably warranted.

Exposure-Lag-Response in Longitudinal Studies: Application of Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Models in an Occupational Cohort

Prolonged exposures can have complex relationships with health outcomes, as timing, duration, and intensity of exposure are all potentially relevant. Summary measures such as cumulative exposure or average intensity of exposure may not fully capture these relationships. We applied penalized and unpenalized distributed-lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) with flexible exposure-response and lag-response functions in order to examine the association between crystalline silica exposure and mortality from lung cancer and nonmalignant respiratory disease in a cohort study of 2,342 California diatomaceous earth workers followed during 1942–2011. We also assessed associations using simple measures of cumulative exposure assuming linear exposure-response and constant lag-response. Measures of association from DLNMs were generally higher than those from simpler models. Rate ratios from penalized DLNMs corresponding to average daily exposures of 0.4 mg/m³ during lag years 31–50 prior to the age of observed cases were 1.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92, 2.35) for lung cancer mortality and 1.80 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.85) for nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality. Rate ratios from the simpler models for the same exposure scenario were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.48) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.46), respectively. Longitudinal cohort studies of prolonged exposures and chronic health outcomes should explore methods allowing for flexibility and nonlinearities in the exposure-lag-response.

Time-dependent effect of intensity of smoking and of occupational exposure to asbestos on the risk of lung cancer: results from the ICARE case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of intensity of both smoking and occupational exposure to asbestos on the risk of lung cancer throughout the whole exposure history.

METHODS

Data on 2026 male cases and 2610 male controls came from the French ICARE (Investigation of occupational and environmental causes of respiratory cancers) population-based, case-control study. Lifetime smoking history and occupational history were collected from standardised questionnaires and face-to-face interviews. Occupational exposure to asbestos was assessed using a job exposure matrix. The effects of annual average daily intensity of smoking (reported average number of cigarettes smoked per day) and asbestos exposure (estimated average daily air concentration of asbestos fibres at work) were estimated using a flexible weighted cumulative index of exposure in logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Intensity of smoking in the 10 years preceding diagnosis had a much stronger association with the risk of lung cancer than more distant intensity. By contrast, intensity of asbestos exposure that occurred more than 40 years before diagnosis had a stronger association with the risk of lung cancer than more recent intensity, even if intensity in the 10 years preceding diagnosis also had a significant effect.

CONCLUSION

Our results illustrate the dynamic of the effect of intensity of both smoking and occupational exposure to asbestos on the risk of lung cancer. They confirm that the timing of exposure plays an important role, and suggest that standard analytical methods assuming equal weights of intensity over the whole exposure history may be questionable.

Associations between statin use and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphomas by subtype

Non-Hodgkin lymphomas (NHL) are a group of cancers with highly heterogeneous biology and clinical features. Statins are increasingly prescribed to prevent cardiovascular diseases. Early evidence shows a preventive effect of statins for some cancers, but their effect on NHL risk is unclear. We conducted a population-based nested case-control study involving 5,541 NHL cases and 27,315 controls matched for gender, age, place of residence and length of period of available prescription drug data. We assessed the use of statins prior to diagnosis (excluding the 12 months prior to the index date). We used conditional logistic regression models to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for use of any statin, adjusting for medical conditions, number of family physician visits for 5 years prior to index date, healthcare utilization, income and use of other medications. Over one-quarter of cases and controls were prescribed statins. Ever-use of any statin was associated with lower risk of Total NHL (OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.89) and of certain subtypes including diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL, OR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.65-0.92), plasma cell neoplasms (PCN, OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.91) and other B-cell NHL (0.75, 0.59-0.95). Analysis by statin type suggested that the association was limited to high potency statin and lipophilic statin users. No clear duration or dose-response relationships were observed. Our findings provide evidence that statin use can reduce the risk of DLBCL and plasma cell lymphomas, but not other NHL types. Further studies are warranted to verify these associations and to examine the biological mechanisms.

Cohort profile: LIFEWORK, a prospective cohort study on occupational and environmental risk factors and health in the Netherlands

PURPOSE

LIFEWORK is a large federated prospective cohort established in the Netherlands to quantify the health effects of occupational and environmental exposures. This cohort is also the Dutch contribution to the international Cohort Study of Mobile Phone Use and Health (COSMOS). In this paper, we describe the study design, ongoing data collection, baseline characteristics of participants and the repeatability of key questionnaire items.

PARTICIPANTS

88 466 participants were enrolled in three cohort studies in 2011-2012. Exposure information was collected by a harmonised core questionnaire, or modelled based on occupational and residential histories; domains include air pollution (eg, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 µm (PM_2.5)), noise, electromagnetic fields (EMF), mobile phone use, shift work and occupational chemical exposures. Chronic and subacute health outcomes are assessed by self-report and through linkage with health registries.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Participants had a median age of 51 years at baseline (range 19-87), and the majority are female (90%), with nurses being over-represented. Median exposure levels of NO₂, PM_2.5, EMF from base stations and noise at the participants' home addresses at baseline were 22.9 µg/m³, 16.6 µg/m³, 0.003 mWm² and 53.1 dB, respectively. Twenty-two per cent of participants reported to have started using a mobile phone more than 10 years prior to baseline. Repeatability for self-reported exposures was moderate to high (weighted kappa range: 0.69-1) for a subset of participants (n=237) who completed the questionnaire twice.

FUTURE PLANS

We are actively and passively observing participants; we plan to administer a follow-up questionnaire every 4-5 years-the first follow-up will be completed in 2018-and linkage to cause-of-death and cancer registries occurs on a (bi)annual basis. This prospective cohort offers a unique, large and rich resource for research on contemporary occupational and environmental health risks and will contribute to the large international COSMOS study on mobile phone use and health.

Trends in Antibiotic Use by Birth Season and Birth Year

OBJECTIVES

We examined 2 birth cohort effects on antibiotic prescribing during the first year of life (henceforth, infancy) in Denmark: (1) the birth season effect on timing and overall occurrence of antibiotic prescribing, and (2) the birth year effect amid emerging nationwide pneumococcal vaccination programs and changing prescribing guidelines.

METHODS

We linked data for all live births in Denmark from 2004 to 2012 (N = 561 729) across the National Health Service Prescription Database, Medical Birth Registry, and Civil Registration System. Across birth season and birth year cohorts, we estimated 1-year risk, rate, and burden of redeemed antibiotic prescriptions during infancy. We used interrupted time series methods to assess prescribing trends across birth year cohorts. Graphical displays of all birth cohort effect data are included.

RESULTS

The 1-year risk of having at least 1 redeemed antibiotic prescription during infancy was 39.5% (99% confidence interval [CI]: 39.3% to 39.6%). The hazard of a first prescription increased with age throughout infancy and varied by season; subsequently, Kaplan-Meier-derived risk functions varied by birth season cohort. After rollout of a first vaccination program and new antibiotic prescribing guidelines, 1-year risk decreased by 4.4% over 14 months (99% CI: 3.4% to 5.5%); it decreased again after rollout of a second vaccination program by 6.9% over 3 years (99% CI: 4.4% to 9.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

In Denmark, birth season and birth year cohort effects influenced timing and risk of antibiotic prescribing during infancy. Future studies of antibiotic stewardship, effectiveness, and safety in children should consider these cohort effects, which may render some children inherently more susceptible than others to downstream antibiotic effects.

SYN-JEM: A Quantitative Job-Exposure Matrix for Five Lung Carcinogens

OBJECTIVE

The use of measurement data in occupational exposure assessment allows more quantitative analyses of possible exposure-response relations. We describe a quantitative exposure assessment approach for five lung carcinogens (i.e. asbestos, chromium-VI, nickel, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (by its proxy benzo(a)pyrene (BaP)) and respirable crystalline silica). A quantitative job-exposure matrix (JEM) was developed based on statistical modeling of large quantities of personal measurements.

METHODS

Empirical linear models were developed using personal occupational exposure measurements (n = 102306) from Europe and Canada, as well as auxiliary information like job (industry), year of sampling, region, an a priori exposure rating of each job (none, low, and high exposed), sampling and analytical methods, and sampling duration. The model outcomes were used to create a JEM with a quantitative estimate of the level of exposure by job, year, and region.

RESULTS

Decreasing time trends were observed for all agents between the 1970s and 2009, ranging from -1.2% per year for personal BaP and nickel exposures to -10.7% for asbestos (in the time period before an asbestos ban was implemented). Regional differences in exposure concentrations (adjusted for measured jobs, years of measurement, and sampling method and duration) varied by agent, ranging from a factor 3.3 for chromium-VI up to a factor 10.5 for asbestos.

CONCLUSION

We estimated time-, job-, and region-specific exposure levels for four (asbestos, chromium-VI, nickel, and RCS) out of five considered lung carcinogens. Through statistical modeling of large amounts of personal occupational exposure measurement data we were able to derive a quantitative JEM to be used in community-based studies.

The Third Italian Consensus Conference for Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: State of the art and recommendations

Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) remains a relevant public health issue, and asbestos exposure is the most relevant risk factor. The incidence has considerably and constantly increased over the past two decades in the industrialized countries and is expected to peak in 2020-2025. In Italy, a standardized-rate incidence in 2011 among men was 3.5 and 1.25 per 100,000 in men and women, respectively, and wide differences are noted among different geographic areas. The disease remains challenging in terms of diagnosis, staging and treatment and an optimal strategy has not yet been clearly defined. The Third Italian Multidisciplinary Consensus Conference on Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma was held in Bari (Italy) in January 30-31, 2015. This Consensus has provided updated recommendations on the MPM management for health institutions, clinicians and patients.

The Effects of Viral Load Burden on Pregnancy Loss among HIV-Infected Women in the United States

Background. To evaluate the effects of HIV viral load, measured cross-sectionally and cumulatively, on the risk of miscarriage or stillbirth (pregnancy loss) among HIV-infected women enrolled in the Women's Interagency HIV Study between 1994 and 2013. Methods. We assessed three exposures: most recent viral load measure before the pregnancy ended, log₁₀ copy-years viremia from initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) to conception, and log₁₀ copy-years viremia in the two years before conception. Results. The risk of pregnancy loss for those with log₁₀ viral load >4.00 before pregnancy ended was 1.59 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99, 2.56) times as high as the risk for women whose log₁₀ viral load was ≤1.60. There was not a meaningful impact of log₁₀ copy-years viremia since ART or log₁₀ copy-years viremia in the two years before conception on pregnancy loss (adjusted risk ratios (aRRs): 0.80 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.92) and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.90, 1.11), resp.). Conclusions. Cumulative viral load burden does not appear to be an informative measure for pregnancy loss risk, but the extent of HIV replication during pregnancy, as represented by plasma HIV RNA viral load, predicted loss versus live birth in this ethnically diverse cohort of HIV-infected US women.

Healthy worker survivor bias in the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort

Cohort mortality studies of underground miners have been used to estimate the number of lung cancer deaths attributable to radon exposure. However, previous studies of the radon-lung cancer association among underground miners may have been subject to healthy worker survivor bias, a type of time-varying confounding by employment status. We examined radon-mortality associations in a study of 4,124 male uranium miners from the Colorado Plateau who were followed from 1950 through 2005. We estimated the time ratio (relative change in median survival time) per 100 working level months (radon exposure averaging 130,000 mega-electron volts of potential α energy per liter of air, per working month) using G-estimation of structural nested models. After controlling for healthy worker survivor bias, the time ratio for lung cancer per 100 working level months was 1.168 (95% confidence interval: 1.152, 1.174). In an unadjusted model, the estimate was 1.102 (95% confidence interval: 1.099, 1.112)-39% lower. Controlling for this bias, we estimated that among 617 lung cancer deaths, 6,071 person-years of life were lost due to occupational radon exposure during follow-up. Our analysis suggests that healthy worker survivor bias in miner cohort studies can be substantial, warranting reexamination of current estimates of radon's estimated impact on lung cancer mortality.

Dynamics of the risk of smoking-induced lung cancer: a compartmental hidden Markov model for longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

To account for the dynamic aspects of carcinogenesis, we propose a compartmental hidden Markov model in which each person is healthy, asymptomatically affected, diagnosed, or deceased. Our model is illustrated using the example of smoking-induced lung cancer.

METHODS

The model was fitted on a case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, including 757 incident cases and 1524 matched controls. Estimation was done through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, and simulations based on the posterior estimates of the parameters were used to provide measures of model fit. We performed sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of our findings.

RESULTS

After adjusting for its impact on exposure duration, age was not found to independently drive the risk of lung carcinogenesis, whereas age at starting smoking in ever-smokers and time since cessation in former smokers were found to be influential. Our data did not support an age-dependent time to diagnosis. The estimated time between onset of malignancy and clinical diagnosis ranged from 2 to 4 years. Our approach yielded good performance in reconstructing individual trajectories in both cases (sensitivity >90%) and controls (sensitivity >80%).

CONCLUSION

Our compartmental model enabled us to identify time-varying predictors of risk and provided us with insights into the dynamics of smoking-induced lung carcinogenesis. Its flexible and general formulation enables the future incorporation of disease states, as measured by intermediate markers, into the modeling of the natural history of cancer, suggesting a large range of applications in chronic disease epidemiology.

Effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure and time since exposure cessation: a flexible method applied to cigarette smoking and lung cancer in the SYNERGY Study

The indiscriminate use of the cumulative exposure metric (the product of intensity and duration of exposure) might bias reported associations between exposure to hazardous agents and cancer risk. To assess the independent effects of duration and intensity of exposure on cancer risk, we explored effect modification of the association of cumulative exposure and cancer risk by intensity of exposure. We applied a flexible excess odds ratio model that is linear in cumulative exposure but potentially nonlinear in intensity of exposure to 15 case-control studies of cigarette smoking and lung cancer (1985-2009). Our model accommodated modification of the excess odds ratio per pack-year of cigarette smoking by time since smoking cessation among former smokers. We observed negative effect modification of the association of pack-years of cigarette smoking and lung cancer by intensity of cigarette smoke for persons who smoked more than 20-30 cigarettes per day. Patterns of effect modification were similar across individual studies and across major lung cancer subtypes. We observed strong negative effect modification by time since smoking cessation. Application of our method in this example of cigarette smoking and lung cancer demonstrated that reducing a complex exposure history to a metric such as cumulative exposure is too restrictive.

Advancing the application of omics-based biomarkers in environmental epidemiology

The use of omics represents a shift in approach for environmental epidemiology and exposure science. In this article, the aspects of the use of omics that will require further development in the near future are discussed, including (a) the underlying causal interpretation and models; (b) the "meet-in-the-middle" concept, with examples; (c) the role of "calibration" of measurements; and (d) the role of life-course epidemiology and the related development of adequate biostatistical models.

Ambient temperature and emergency department visits for heat-related illness in North Carolina, 2007-2008

PURPOSE

To estimate the association between environmental temperatures and the occurrence of emergency department visits for heat-related illness in North Carolina, a large Southern state with 85 rural and 15 urban counties; approximately half the state's population resides in urban counties.

METHODS

County-level daily emergency department visit counts and daily mean temperatures for the period 1/1/2007-12/31/2008 were merged to form a time-series data structure. Incidence rates were calculated by sex, age group, region, day of week, and month. Incidence rate ratios were estimated using categorical and linear spline Poisson regression models and heterogeneity of the temperature-emergency department visit association was assessed using product interaction terms in the Poisson models.

RESULTS

In 2007-2008, there were 2539 emergency department visits with heat-related illness as the primary diagnosis. Incidence rates were highest among young adult males (19-44 year age group), in rural counties, and in the Sandhills region. Incidence rates increased exponentially with temperatures over 15.6 °C (60 °F). The overall incidence rate ratio for each 1 °C increase over 15.6 °C in daily mean temperature was 1.43 (95%CI: 1.41, 1.45); temperature effects were greater for males than females, for 45-64 year olds, and for residents of rural counties than residents of urban counties.

CONCLUSIONS

As heat response plans are developed, they should incorporate findings on climate effects for both mortality and morbidity. While forecast-triggered heat health warning systems are essential to mitigate the effects of extreme heat events, public health preparedness plans should not ignore the effects of more persistently observed high environmental temperatures like those that occur throughout the warm season in North Carolina.