Meteorologic conditions and respiratory syncytial virus activity

Epidemiology and risk factors of respiratory syncytial virus associated acute respiratory tract infection in hospitalized children younger than 5 years from Sri Lanka

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of acute respiratory tract infections (ARTI) and a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide.

Aim

This study aimed to describe the prevalence and seasonal patterns of RSV and to determine the actual and predictive association of RSV-associated ARTI and clinical, socio-demographic, and climatic risk factors in children < 5 years.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected from 500 children < 5 years admitted to the Kegalle General Hospital, Sri Lanka between May 2016 to July 2018. RSV and RSV subtypes were detected using immunofluorescence assay and real time RT-PCR, respectively. Descriptive and inferential statistics were done for the data analysis using Chi-square, Fisher's exact, Kruskal-Wallis test, and multiple binary logistic regression in the statistical package for social sciences (SPSS), version 16.0.

Results

Prevalence of RSV-associated ARTI was 28% in children < 5 years. Both RSV subtypes were detected throughout the study period. RSV-B was the dominant subtype detected with a prevalence of 72.14%. RSV infection in general caused severe respiratory disease leading to hypoxemia. Compared to RSV-B, RSV-A infection had more symptoms leading to hypoxemia. Factors increasing the risk of contracting RSV infection included number of people living (n > 6), having pets at home and inhaling toxic fumes. The inferential analysis predicts RSV infection in children < 5 years with ARTI, with a 75.4% probability with clinical and socio-demographic characteristics like age < 1 year, fever for > 4 days, cough, conjunctivitis, stuffiness, fatigue, six or more people at home, having pets at home and inhaling toxic fumes. Climatic factors like increases in temperature (°C), wind speed (Km/h), wind gust (Km/h), rainfall (mm) and atmospheric pressure (mb) showed a strong correlation with the RSV infection in children.

Determining the Relationship of Meteorological Factors and Severe Pediatric Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Infection in Central Peninsular Malaysia

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing viral respiratory tract infections among younger children worldwide. The influence of meteorological factors on RSV seasonal activity is well-established for temperate countries; however, in subtropical countries such as Malaysia, relatively stable temperate climates do not clearly support this trend, and the available data are contradictory. Better understanding of meteorological factors and seasonality of RSV will allow effective strategic health management relating to RSV infection, particularly immunoprophylaxis of high-risk infants with palivizumab. Retrospectively, from 2017 to 2021, we examined the association between various meteorological factors (rainfall, rainy days, temperature, and relative humidity) and the incidence of RSV in children aged less than 12 years in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. RSV activity peaked in two periods (July to August and October to December), which was significantly correlated with the lowest rainfall (p < 0.007) and number of rainy days (p < 0.005). RSV prevalence was also positively associated with temperature (p < 0.006) and inversely associated with relative humidity (p < 0.006). Based on our findings, we recommend that immunoprophylaxis with palivizumab be administered in children aged less than 2 years where transmission of RSV is postulated to be the highest after the end of two monsoon seasons.

Roles of Ambient Temperature and PM2.5 on Childhood Acute Bronchitis and Bronchiolitis from Viral Infection

Studies have associated the human respiratory syncytial virus which causes seasonal childhood acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (CABs) with climate change and air pollution. We investigated this association using the insurance claims data of 3,965,560 children aged ≤ 12 years from Taiwan from 2006−2016. The monthly average incident CABs increased with increasing PM2.5 levels and exhibited an inverse association with temperature. The incidence was 1.6-fold greater in January than in July (13.7/100 versus 8.81/100), declined during winter breaks (February) and summer breaks (June−August). The highest incidence was 698 cases/day at <20 °C with PM2.5 > 37.0 μg/m3, with an adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97−1.04) compared to 568 cases/day at <20 °C with PM2.5 < 15.0 μg/m3 (reference). The incidence at ≥30 °C decreased to 536 cases/day (aRR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.85−1.06) with PM2.5 > 37.0 μg/m3 and decreased further to 392 cases/day (aRR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.58−0.65) when PM2.5 was <15.0 μg/m3. In conclusion, CABs infections in children were associated with lowered ambient temperatures and elevated PM2.5 concentrations, and the high PM2.5 levels coincided with low temperature levels. The role of temperature should be considered in the studies of association between PM2.5 and CABs.

Seasonal association between viral causes of hospitalised acute lower respiratory infections and meteorological factors in China: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) caused by respiratory viruses are common and persistent infectious diseases worldwide and in China, which have pronounced seasonal patterns. Meteorological factors have important roles in the seasonality of some major viruses, especially respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus. Our aim was to identify the dominant meteorological factors and to model their effects on common respiratory viruses in different regions of China.

METHODS

We analysed monthly virus data on patients hospitalised with ALRI from 81 sentinel hospitals in 22 provinces in mainland China from Jan 1, 2009, to Sept 30, 2013. We considered seven common respiratory viruses: RSV, influenza virus, human parainfluenza virus, adenovirus, human metapneumovirus, human bocavirus, and human coronavirus. Meteorological data of the same period were used to analyse relationships between virus seasonality and seven meteorological factors according to region (southern vs northern China). The geographical detector method was used to quantify the explanatory power of each meteorological factor, individually and interacting in pairs, on the respiratory viruses.

FINDINGS

28 369 hospitalised patients with ALRI were tested, 10 387 (36·6%) of whom were positive for at least one virus, including RSV (4091 [32·0%] patients), influenza virus (2665 [20·8%]), human parainfluenza virus (2185 [17·1%]), adenovirus (1478 [11·6%]), human bocavirus (1120 [8·8%]), human coronavirus (637 [5·0%]), and human metapneumovirus (615 [4·8%]). RSV and influenza virus had annual peaks in the north and biannual peaks in the south. Human parainfluenza virus and human bocavirus had higher positive rates in the spring-summer months. Human metapneumovirus had an annual peak in winter-spring, especially in the north. Adenovirus and human coronavirus exhibited no clear annual seasonality. Temperature, atmospheric pressure, vapour pressure, and rainfall had most explanatory power on most respiratory viruses in each region. Relative humidity was only dominant in the north, but had no significant explanatory power for most viruses in the south. Hours of sunlight had significant explanatory power for RSV and influenza virus in the north, and for most viruses in the south. Wind speed was the only factor with significant explanatory power for human coronavirus in the south. For all viruses, interactions between any two of the paired factors resulted in enhanced explanatory power, either bivariately or non-linearly.

INTERPRETATION

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity was detected for most viruses in this study, and interactions between pairs of meteorological factors were found to enhance their influence on virus variation. These findings might be helpful to guide government planning, such as public health interventions, infection control practice, and timing of passive immunoprophylaxis, and might facilitate the development of future vaccine strategies.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, and the Technology Major Project of China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer, and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease spread. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria. Since the disease has been prevalent for only half a year in the northern, and one-quarter of a year in the southern hemisphere, datasets capturing a full seasonal cycle in one locality are not yet available. Analyses based on space-for-time substitutions, i.e., using data from climatically distinct locations as a surrogate for seasonal progression, have been inconclusive. The reported studies present a strong northern bias. Socio-economic conditions peculiar to the 'Global South' have been omitted as confounding variables, thereby weakening evidence of environmental signals. We explore why research to date has failed to show convincing evidence for environmental modulation of COVID-19, and discuss directions for future research. We conclude that the evidence thus far suggests a weak modulation effect, currently overwhelmed by the scale and rate of the spread of COVID-19. Seasonally modulated transmission, if it exists, will be more evident in 2021 and subsequent years.

Temporal and climate characteristics of respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis in neonates and children in Sousse, Tunisia, during a 13-year surveillance

This study established the correlation between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis and climate factors in the area of Sousse, Tunisia, during 13 years (2003-2015), from neonates and children <= 5 years old and hospitalized in Farhat Hached University-Hospital of Sousse. The meteorological data of Sousse including temperature, rainfall, and humidity were obtained. RSV detection was carried out with the direct immunofluorescence assay. The impact of climate factors on viral circulation was statistically analyzed. From 2003 to 2015, the total rate of RSV bronchiolitis accounted for 34.5% and peaked in 2007 and 2013. RSV infection was higher in male cases and pediatric environment (p<0.001) and was detected in 47.3% of hospitalizations in intensive care units. The epidemic of this pathogen started in October and peaked in January (41.6%). When the infectivity of RSV was at its maximum, the monthly average rainfall was high (31 mm) and the monthly average temperature and the monthly average humidity were at their minimum (11 °C and 66%, respectively). RSV activity was negatively correlated with temperature (r = - 0.78, p = 0.003) and humidity (r = - 0.62, p = 0.03). Regression analysis showed that the monthly average temperature fits into a linear model (R² = 61%, p < 0.01). No correlation between RSV activity and rainfall was observed (p = 0.48). The meteorological predictions of RSV outbreaks with specific Tunisian climate parameters will help in determining the optimal timing of appropriate preventive strategies. In the area of Sousse, preventive measures should be enhanced since October especially, when the temperature is around 11 °C and humidity is above 60%.

Human respiratory syncytial virus and influenza seasonality patterns-Early findings from the WHO global respiratory syncytial virus surveillance

Background

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes illnesses among all age groups and presents a burden to healthcare services. To better understand the epidemiology and seasonality of RSV in different geographical areas, the World Health Organization (WHO) coordinated a pilot initiative to access the feasibility of establishing RSV surveillance using the existing Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) platform.

Objectives

To describe and compare RSV and influenza seasonality in countries in the northern andsouthern temperate, and tropics during the period January 2017 to April 2019.

Methods

Fourteen countries in six WHO regions participating in the GISRS were invited for the pilot. Hospitalized patients presenting with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI), SARI without fever and outpatients presenting with acute respiratory illness (ARI) were enrolled from January 2017 to April 2019. The expected minimum sample size was 20 samples per week, year‐round, per country. Real‐time RT‐PCR was used to detect RSV and influenza viruses. Results were uploaded to the WHO FluMart platform.

Results

Annual seasonality of RSV was observed in all countries, which overlapped to a large extent with the influenza activity. In countries, in temperate regions RSV peaked in the autumn/winter months. In Egypt, a subtropical country, RSV activity peaked in the cooler season. In the tropical regions, RSV peaked during the rainy seasons.

Conclusion

Early findings from the WHO RSV surveillance pilot based on the GISRS suggest annual seasonal patterns for of RSV circulation that overlap with influenza. RSV surveillance needs to be continued for several more seasons to establish seasonality patterns to inform prevention and control strategies.

Association of meteorological factors with infectious diarrhea incidence in Guangzhou, southern China: A time-series study (2006-2017)

BACKGROUND

Infectious diarrhea (ID) has exerted a severe disease burden on the world. The seasonal ID patterns suggest that meteorological factors (MFs) may influence ID incidence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of MFs on ID, and to provide scientific evidence to the relevant health authorities for disease control and prevention.

METHODS

Data from ID cases and daily MFs (including mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, relative humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and wind velocity) in Guangzhou, Southern China from 2006 to 2017 were collected. Using a distributed lag non-linear model approach, we assessed the relationship between MFs and ID incidence.

RESULTS

Compared with the lowest ID risk values, low mean temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation were associated with an increased risk for ID, while higher diurnal temperature range and atmospheric pressure were also associated with increased risk. Maximum atmospheric pressure and minimum relative humidity had larger cumulative effects within 21 lag days, yielding relative risks of 133.11 (95% CI: 61.29-289.09) and 18.17 (14.42-22.89), respectively. The cumulative effect within 21 lag days of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in all sub-populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for men, teenagers, and young adults (10-29 years) were higher than those for other populations.

CONCLUSIONS

MFs should be considered when developing prevention and surveillance programs for ID. Special attention should be paid to vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.

Influence of meteorological conditions on RSV infection in Portugal

Acute viral bronchiolitis is a common cause for infant hospital admissions. Of all etiological agents, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is commonly the most frequent. The present study assesses relationships between atmospheric factors and RSV infections in under 3-year-old patients admitted to the Inpatient Paediatric Service of Vila Real (North of Portugal). For this purpose, (1) clinical files of children admitted with a diagnosis of acute bronchiolitis from September 2005 to December 2015 (>10 years) were scrutinised and (2) local daily temperature/precipitation series, as well as six weather types controlling meteorological conditions in Portugal, were used. Fifty-five percent of all 770 admitted children were effectively infected with a given virus, whilst 48 % (367) were RSV+, i.e. 87 % of virus-infected children were RSV+. The bulk of incidence is verified in the first year of age (82 %, 302), slightly higher in males. RSV outbreaks are typically from December to March, but important inter-annual variability is found in both magnitude and shape. Although no clear connections were found between monthly temperatures/precipitation and RSV outbreaks apart from seasonality, a linkage to wintertime cold spells is apparent on a daily basis. Anomalously low minimum temperatures from the day of admittance back to 10 days before are observed. This relationship is supported by anomalously high occurrences of the E and AA weather types over the same period, which usually trigger dry and cold weather. These findings highlight some predictability in the RSV occurrences, revealing potential for modelling and risk assessments.

Bronchiolitis: Analysis of 10 consecutive epidemic seasons

Bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalization in infants under 12 months. Our aims were to analyze epidemiological characteristics of infants with bronchiolitis over 10 consecutive seasons and to evaluate whether there are any clinical differences between infants hospitalized for bronchiolitis during epidemic peak months and infants in non-peak months. We enrolled consecutive enrolled 723 previously healthy term infants hospitalized at the Paediatric Emergency Department, "Sapienza" University of Rome over the period 2004-2014. Fourteen respiratory viruses were detected from nasopharyngeal aspirates by molecular methods. Clinical and demographic data were extracted from clinical charts. Viruses were detected in 351 infants (48.5%): RSV in 234 (32.4%), RV in 44 (6.1%), hBoV in 11 (1.5%), hMPV in 12 (1.6%), co-infections in 39 (5.4%), and other viruses in 11 (1.5%). Analyzing the 10 epidemic seasons, we found higher incidence for bronchiolitis every 4 years with a peak during the months December-January. Infants hospitalized during peak months had lower family history for asthma (P = 0.003), more smoking mothers during pregnancy (P = 0.036), were slightly higher breastfed (0.056), had lower number of blood eosinophils (P = 0.015) and had a higher clinical severity score (P = 0.017). RSV was detected mostly during peak months, while RV was equally distributed during the seasons. We found some variations in bronchiolitis incidence during epidemics, and discriminative characteristics in infants hospitalized for bronchiolitis during peak months and in non-peak months, that might reflect two different populations of children. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2016;51:1330-1335. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Preliminary Assessment of the Role of Ambient Nitric Oxide Exposure in Hospitalization with Respiratory Syncytial Virus Bronchiolitis

Some in vitro studies have indicated a possible link between respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and exposure to Nitric Oxide (NO). However, these studies used much higher NO concentrations than normally found in the ambient environment. This preliminary study explored whether an association was present with short-term exposure to NO in the environment. RSV-related admission data between November 2011 and February 2012 were obtained from Sheffield Children's Hospital. The dates of admission were linked to contemporaneous ambient NO derived from sentinel air monitors. The case-crossover design was used to study the relationship between daily RSV admissions and NO, controlling for temperature and relative humidity. We found little evidence of association between daily RSV admission rates and exposure to ambient NO at different lags or average exposure across several lags. The findings should, however, be viewed with caution due to the low number of events observed during the time frame. It is possible that the apparent lack of association may be accounted for by the timing of the seasonal RSV epidemic in relation to peaks in NO concentrations. A larger study incorporating a wider range of RSV and NO peaks would determine whether said peaks enhanced the number of RSV hospitalizations in children.

Relative frequency, Possible Risk Factors, Viral Codetection Rates, and Seasonality of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Among Children With Lower Respiratory Tract Infection in Northeastern Brazil

Few studies, each limited to a single major city, have investigated the prevalence and seasonal patterns of different viruses among children with low respiratory tract infections (LRTI) in Northeastern Brazil. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and of 7 other viruses in children for LRTI in 4 capitals from this region, and investigate their association with several risk factors, including meteorological data. From April 2012 to March 2013, 507 children, aged up to 24 months and hospitalized with LRTI in one of the participating centers at Aracajú, Salvador, Recife, and Maceió, had a sample of nasopharyngeal aspirate collected and analyzed for the following viruses by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction followed by hybridization on low-density microarrays: RSV, influenza, parainfluenza, adenovirus, rhinovirus, metapneumovirus, bocavirus, and coronavirus. The result was positive in 66.5% of cases, RSV was the most common virus (40.2%). Except for rhinovirus (17%), all other virus had frequency rates lower than 6%. Viral coinfections were detected in 13.8% of samples. Possible related risk factors for RSV infection were low age upon entry, attendance of daycare, low gestational age, and low educational level of the father. The relative frequency of viral infections was associated with increasing temperature and decreasing humidity separately, but the results also suggested both associated with increased frequency of RSV. Some of these findings differ from those reported for other regions in Brazil and may be used to guide policies that address LRTI.

Population-based Analysis of Bronchiolitis Epidemiology in Valencia, Spain

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of European epidemiologic population-based studies on bronchiolitis and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis including both hospitalizations and primary care attendance.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of all children born between 2009 and 2012 was followed from birth to 2 years of age using population and health databases. We searched for global bronchiolitis (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification codes 466.1, 466.11 and 466.19) and RSV bronchiolitis (code 466.11 and code 466.19 with positive RSV test) in the first appearance either in primary care or in hospitalization databases. A preterm subcohort (International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, Clinical Modification codes 765) was also analyzed.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 198,223 children of whom 41,479 were diagnosed of bronchiolitis (incidence rate 16.4/100 children <2 years per year). Of those, 5390 were hospitalized with the majority of hospitalizations occurring at <6 months of age (incidence rate of 5.2/100 children <6 months per year) and 3106 of the hospitalizations were RSV positive (incidence rate 3.2/100 children <6 months per year). RSV hospitalizations were 26% longer than non-RSV. In preterm infants, hospitalization incidence was more than double, and the mean length of hospitalization was 29% longer.

CONCLUSIONS

Most (87%) bronchiolitis cases are managed in primary care offices. Approximately 2 out of every 10 children <2 are diagnosed of bronchiolitis, 3 out of every 100 are hospitalized and 1.6 out of every 100 are hospitalized with RSV bronchiolitis in our cohort. Infants between 2 and 10 weeks constitute a risk group for severe bronchiolitis.

Respiratory syncytial virus activity and climate parameters during a 12-year period

The epidemic pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection during long periods and the factors that determine seasonality are not well studied. In order to correlate the RSV epidemic activity with climate parameters, we conducted a retrospective study of children (0-14 year) who were hospitalized because of respiratory tract infection and had an RSV test performed in the major tertiary pediatric hospital of Greece during a 12-year period (2002-2013). Daily data regarding temperature and humidity were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service. A total of 2030/7516 (27%) children were tested positive for RSV infection. Among RSV positive children 1945/2030 (95.8%) were infants <1 year. A peak of RSV activity was measured in years 2002, 2003, and 2006 (>35% positive). The RSV season in our area spanned from December to April, with higher incidence during January through March. The peak monthly RSV incidence was observed during February with mean temperature 10.34 °C and mean relative humidity 69.16%. Regarding climate conditions, a statistically significant positive correlation was found between monthly RSV activity and mean monthly relative humidity (rho = 0.66, P-value = 0.02), whereas a negative correlation was found with mean monthly temperature (rho = -0.81, P-value = 0.002). However, in the multivariable analysis, only the effect of mean monthly temperature remained statistically significant (IRR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.80). Further understanding of RSV seasonality in different geographic areas would be important in order to timely implement preventing strategies with immunoprophylaxis or future RSV vaccines.

Relationship between meteorological conditions and respiratory syncytial virus in a tropical country

This study aimed to determine which meteorological conditions are associated with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) isolates in a population of children hospitalized with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in Bogota, Colombia. In an analytical cross-sectional study, links were examined between the number of monthly RSV infections and monthly average climatic variation (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, solar radiation) between 1 January 2010 and 30 April 2011 in a population of hospitalized children aged <3 years with ALRI caused by RSV. Out of a total of 1548 children included in the study (mean age 9·2 ± 8·5 months), 1194 (77·1%) presented RSV infection during the 3-month period from March to May. In the multivariate analysis, after controlling for wind speed, relative humidity, and solar radiation, monthly average temperature [incident rate ratio (IRR) 3·14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·56-6·30, P = 0·001] and rainfall (IRR 1·008, 95% CI 1·00-1·01, P = 0·048) were independently associated with the monthly number of RSV infections. In conclusion, in Bogota, a tropical Latin American city, average temperature and rainfall are the meteorological variables most strongly associated with RSV isolation in children hospitalized with ALRI in the city.

Environmental viral contamination in a pediatric hospital outpatient waiting area: implications for infection control

BACKGROUND

Nosocomial outbreaks of viral etiology are costly and can have a major impact on patient care. Many viruses are known to persist in the inanimate environment and may pose a risk to patients and health care workers. We investigate the frequency of environmental contamination with common health care-associated viruses and explore the use of torque-teno virus as a marker of environmental contamination.

METHODS

Environmental screening for a variety of clinically relevant viruses was carried out over 3 months in a UK pediatric hospital using air sampling and surface swabbing. Swabs were tested for the presence of virus nucleic acid by quantitative polymerase chain reactions.

RESULTS

Viral nucleic acid was found on surfaces and in the air throughout the screening period, with adenovirus DNA being the most frequent. Door handles were frequently contaminated. Torque-teno virus was also found at numerous sites.

CONCLUSION

Evidence of environmental contamination with viral pathogens is present in health care environments and may be indicative of an infectious virus being present. Screening for viruses should be included in infection control strategies. Torque-teno virus may provide a better marker of contamination and reduce time and cost of screening for individual viruses.

Updated guidance for palivizumab prophylaxis among infants and young children at increased risk of hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus infection

Guidance from the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) for the use of palivizumab prophylaxis against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was first published in a policy statement in 1998. Guidance initially was based on the result from a single randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial conducted in 1996-1997 describing an overall reduction in RSV hospitalization rate from 10.6% among placebo recipients to 4.8% among children who received prophylaxis. The results of a second randomized, placebo-controlled trial of children with hemodynamically significant heart disease were published in 2003 and revealed a reduction in RSV hospitalization rate from 9.7% in control subjects to 5.3% among prophylaxis recipients. Because no additional controlled trials regarding efficacy were published, AAP guidance has been updated periodically to reflect the most recent literature regarding children at greatest risk of severe disease. Since the last update in 2012, new data have become available regarding the seasonality of RSV circulation, palivizumab pharmacokinetics, the changing incidence of bronchiolitis hospitalizations, the effects of gestational age and other risk factors on RSV hospitalization rates, the mortality of children hospitalized with RSV infection, and the effect of prophylaxis on wheezing and palivizumab-resistant RSV isolates. These data enable further refinement of AAP guidance to most clearly focus on those children at greatest risk.

A systematic review of predictive modeling for bronchiolitis

PURPOSE

Bronchiolitis is the most common cause of illness leading to hospitalization in young children. At present, many bronchiolitis management decisions are made subjectively, leading to significant practice variation among hospitals and physicians caring for children with bronchiolitis. To standardize care for bronchiolitis, researchers have proposed various models to predict the disease course to help determine a proper management plan. This paper reviews the existing state of the art of predictive modeling for bronchiolitis. Predictive modeling for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is covered whenever appropriate, as RSV accounts for about 70% of bronchiolitis cases.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted through a PubMed search up to April 25, 2014. The literature on predictive modeling for bronchiolitis was retrieved using a comprehensive search query, which was developed through an iterative process. Search results were limited to human subjects, the English language, and children (birth to 18 years).

RESULTS

The literature search returned 2312 references in total. After manual review, 168 of these references were determined to be relevant and are discussed in this paper. We identify several limitations and open problems in predictive modeling for bronchiolitis, and provide some preliminary thoughts on how to address them, with the hope to stimulate future research in this domain.

CONCLUSIONS

Many problems remain open in predictive modeling for bronchiolitis. Future studies will need to address them to achieve optimal predictive models.