Accuracy of self-reported HIV-testing history and awareness of HIV-positive status in four sub-Saharan African countries

People Who Self-Reported Testing HIV-Positive but Tested HIV-Negative: A Multi-Country Puzzle of Data, Serology, and Ethics, 2015-2021

During population-based HIV impact assessments (PHIAs), some participants who self-reported testing HIV-positive (PSRP) tested negative in one or more subsequent survey HIV tests. These unexpected discrepancies between their self-reported results and the survey results draw into question the validity of either the self-reported status or the test results. We analyzed PSRP with negative test results aged 15-59 years old using data collected from 2015 to 2021 in 13 countries, assessing prevalence, self-report status, survey HIV status, viral load, rapid tests and confirmatory tests, and answers to follow-up questions (such as years on treatment). Across these surveys, 19,026 participants were PSRP, and 256 (1.3%) of these were concluded to be HIV-negative after additional survey-based testing and review. PSRP determined to be HIV-negative trended higher in countries with a higher HIV prevalence, but their number was small enough that accepting self-reported HIV-positive status without testing would not have significantly affected the prevalence estimates for HIV or viral load suppression. Additionally, using more detailed information for Uganda, we examined 107 PSRP with any negative test results and found no significant correlation with years on treatment or age. Using these details, we examined support for the possible reasons for these discrepancies beyond misdiagnosis and false reporting. These findings suggest that those conducting surveys would benefit from a nuanced understanding of HIV testing among PSRP to conduct surveys ethically and produce high-quality results.

Development and calibration of a mathematical model of HIV outcomes among Rwandan adults: informing equitable achievement of targets in Rwanda

Background

We developed and calibrated the Central Africa-International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (CA-IeDEA) HIV policy model to inform equitable achievement of global goals, overall and across sub-populations, in Rwanda.

Methods

We created a deterministic dynamic model to project adult HIV epidemic and care continuum outcomes, overall and for 25 subpopulations (age group, sex, HIV acquisition risk, urbanicity). Data came from the Rwanda cohort of CA-IeDEA, 2004-2020; Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, 2005, 2010, 2015; Rwanda Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, 2019; and the literature and reports. We calibrated the model to 47 targets by selecting the 50 best-fitting parameter sets among 20,000 simulations. Calibration targets reflected epidemic (HIV prevalence, incidence), global goals (percentage on antiretroviral therapy (ART) among diagnosed, percentage virally suppressed among on ART) and other (number on ART, percentage virally suppressed) indicators, overall and by sex. Best-fitting sets minimized the summed absolute value of the percentage deviation (AVPD) between model projections and calibration targets. Good model performance was mean AVPD ≤5% across the 50 best-fitting sets and/or projections within the target confidence intervals; acceptable was mean AVPD >5% and ≤15%.

Results

Across indicators, 1,841 of 2,350 (78.3%) model projections were a good or acceptable fit to calibration targets. For HIV epidemic indicators, 256 of 300 (85.3%) projections were a good fit to targets, with the model performing better for women (83.3% a good fit) than for men (71.7% a good fit). For global goals indicators, 96 of 100 (96.0%) projections were a good fit; model performance was similar for women and men. For other indicators, 653 of 950 (68.7%) projections were a good or acceptable fit. Fit was better for women than for men (percentage virally suppressed only) and when restricting targets for number on ART to 2013 and beyond.

Conclusions

The CA-IeDEA HIV policy model fits historical data and can inform policy solutions for equitably achieving global goals to end the HIV epidemic in Rwanda. High-quality, unbiased population-based data, as well as novel approaches that account for calibration target quality, are critical to ongoing use of mathematical models for programmatic planning.

Can routine antenatal data be used to assess HIV antiretroviral therapy coverage among pregnant women? Evaluating the validity of different data sources in the Western Cape, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Accurate measurement of antenatal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in pregnancy is imperative in tracking progress towards elimination of vertical HIV transmission. In the Western Cape, South Africa, public-sector individual-level routine data are consolidated from multiple sources, enabling the description of temporal changes in population-wide antenatal antiretroviral coverage. We evaluated the validity of different methods for measuring ART coverage among pregnant women.

METHODS

We compared self-reported ART data from a 2014 antenatal survey with laboratory assay data from a sub-sample within the survey population. Thereafter, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of all pregnancies consolidated in the Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) from January 2011 to December 2020. Evidence of antenatal and HIV care from electronic platforms were linked using a unique patient identifier. ART coverage estimates were triangulated with available antenatal survey estimates, aggregated programmatic data from registers recorded in the District Health Information System (DHIS) and Thembisa modelling estimates.

RESULTS

Self-reported ART in the 2014 sentinel antenatal survey (n = 1434) had high sensitivity (83.5%), specificity (94.5%) and agreement (k = 0.8) with the gold standard of laboratory analysis of ART. Based on linked routine data, ART coverage by the time of delivery in mothers of live births increased from 67.4% in 2011 to 94.7% by 2019. This pattern of increasing antenatal ART coverage was also seen in the DHIS data, and estimated by the Thembisa model, but was less consistent in the antenatal survey data.

CONCLUSION

This study is the first in a high-burden HIV setting to compare sentinel ART surveillance data with consolidated individuated administrative data. Although self-report in survey conditions showed high validity, more recent data sources based on self-report and medical records may be uncertain with increasing ART coverage over time. Linked individuated data may offer a promising option for ART coverage estimation with greater granularity and efficiency.

Brief Report: Self-Reported HIV-Positive Status but Subsequent HIV-Negative Test Results in Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Participants-11 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2018

BACKGROUND

HIV testing is a critical step to accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) because early diagnosis can facilitate earlier initiation of ART. This study presents aggregated data of individuals who self-reported being HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative during nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted in 11 countries from 2015 to 2018.

METHOD

Survey participants aged 15 years or older were interviewed by trained personnel using a standard questionnaire to determine HIV testing history and self-reported HIV status. Home-based HIV testing and counseling using rapid diagnostic tests with return of results were performed by survey staff according to the respective national HIV testing services algorithms on venous blood samples. Laboratory-based confirmatory HIV testing for all participants identified as HIV-positives and self-reported positives, irrespective of HIV testing results, was conducted and included Geenius HIV-1/2 and DNA polymerase chain reaction if Geenius was negative or indeterminate.

RESULTS

Of the 16,630 participants who self-reported as HIV-positive, 16,432 (98.6%) were confirmed as HIV-positive and 198 (1.4%) were HIV-negative by subsequent laboratory-based testing. Participants who self-reported as HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative were significantly younger than 30 years, less likely to have received ART, and less likely to have received a CD4 test compared with participants who self-reported as HIV-positive with laboratory-confirmed infection.

CONCLUSIONS

A small proportion of self-reported HIV-positive individuals could not be confirmed as positive, which could be due to initial misdiagnosis, deliberate wrong self-report, or misunderstanding of the questionnaire. As universal ART access is expanding, it is increasingly important to ensure quality of HIV testing and confirmation of HIV diagnosis before ART initiation.

Temporal Trends and Determinants of HIV Testing at Antenatal Care in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Surveys (2005-2021)

BACKGROUND

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), integrating HIV testing into antenatal care (ANC) has been crucial toward reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. With the introduction of new testing modalities, we explored temporal trends in HIV testing within and outside of ANC and identified sociodemographic determinants of testing during ANC.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 139 nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2021, including more than 2.2 million women aged 15-49 years in 41 SSA countries. We extracted data on women's recent HIV testing history (<24 months), by modality (ie, at ANC versus outside of ANC) and sociodemographic variables (ie, age, socioeconomic status, education level, number of births, urban/rural). We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate HIV testing coverage and the proportion of those that tested as part of ANC.

RESULTS

HIV testing coverage (<24 months) increased substantially between 2005 and 2021 from 8% to 38%, with significant variations between countries and subregions. Two percent of women received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey interview as part of ANC in 2005 and 11% in 2021. Among women who received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey, the probability of testing at ANC was significantly greater for multiparous, adolescent girls, rural women, women in the poorest wealth quintile, and women in West and Central Africa.

CONCLUSION

ANC testing remains an important component to achieving high levels of HIV testing coverage and benefits otherwise underserved women, which could prove instrumental to progress toward universal knowledge of HIV status in SSA.

Investigating inequalities in HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa: spatial analysis of cross-sectional population-based surveys in 25 countries

OBJECTIVES

We aim to explore spatial variations in socioeconomic inequalities in HIV testing uptake in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at different geographical scales to identify potential geographical hotspots of inequalities. Additionally, to evaluate the potential benefits of HIV testing programmes, we assess whether local levels of HIV testing match the local levels of HIV prevalence.

DESIGN

A multi-country analysis of population-based cross-sectional surveys in SSA.

SETTING

We analysed data from 25 SSA countries with Demographic and Health Surveys between 2011 and 2019.

PARTICIPANTS

Country-level analysis included 473 775 participants (312 104 women and 161 671 men) and cluster-level analysis included 328 283 individuals (241 084 women and 87 199 men). Women aged 15-49 years and men aged 15-54/59 years in selected households who were tested for HIV in the last 12 months were eligible. We quantified inequalities in self-reported recent HIV testing with the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) across geographical scales to capture sex-specific within-country spatial variations. We also conducted local Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to consider the autocorrelation in fine-scale SII and RII across countries. To assess the efficiency of HIV testing programmes, we measured the correlation between recent HIV testing and HIV prevalence through Spearman correlation across geographical scales.

RESULTS

We observed varying inequalities in recent HIV testing in magnitude and spatial distribution on both absolute and relative scales in many countries for both sexes at national and subnational levels. Hotspots of absolute and relative inequalities were mostly observed in Western and Central Africa with a few regions in Eastern and Southern Africa. Despite significant sex-specific correlations between testing and prevalence in all countries when assessed at the national level, we report an absence of such a correlation at fine scale in 17 of 50 sex-country combinations.

CONCLUSIONS

We highlight the importance of investigating the spatial variability of various HIV indicators and related inequalities across different geographical levels. Results may help inform an equitable distribution of HIV testing services.

Differences in HIV testing among sexual orientation subgroups in the United States: A national cross-sectional study

Understanding differences in HIV testing among US adults is a crucial step for HIV prevention. This study used cross-sectional data to assess whether HIV testing varies across sexual orientation subgroups and by important psychosocial factors. Data were from the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III (NESARC-III; n = 36 309, response rate = 60.1%), a nationally representative survey of the US non-institutionalized adult population. Using logistic regression, we examined HIV testing among heterosexual concordant, heterosexual discordant, gay/lesbian, and bisexual adults. Psychosocial correlates included adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), discrimination, educational attainment, social support, and substance use disorders (SUDs). Bisexual (77.0%) and gay/lesbian (65.4%) women had a greater prevalence of HIV testing than concordant heterosexual women (51.6%), and bisexual women had a significantly higher testing prevalence than discordant heterosexual women (54.8%). Gay (84.0%) and bisexual (72.1%) men also had a significantly higher testing prevalence than discordant (48.2%) and concordant (49.4%) heterosexual men. In multivariable models, bisexual men and women (AOR = 1.8; 95% CI = 1.3-2.4) and gay men (AOR = 4.7; 95% CI = 3.2-7.1) had significantly greater odds of HIV testing than heterosexual concordant adults. A higher number of ACEs, greater social support, history of SUDs, and higher educational attainment were positively associated with HIV testing. HIV testing prevalence varied across sexual orientation subgroups; discordant heterosexual men had the lowest prevalence. Health care providers should consider a person's sexual orientation, ACEs, educational attainment, social support, and history of SUDs when evaluating HIV testing needs in the US.

Trends in HIV testing, the treatment cascade, and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV. In Africa, MSM face structural barriers to HIV prevention and treatment that increase their vulnerability to HIV acquisition and transmission, and undermine the HIV response. In this systematic review, we aimed to explore progress towards increases in HIV testing, improving engagement in the HIV treatment cascade, and HIV incidence reductions among MSM in Africa.

METHODS

We searched Embase, MEDLINE, Global Health, Scopus, and Web of Science for cross-sectional and longitudinal studies reporting HIV testing, knowledge of status, care, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, viral suppression, and HIV incidence among MSM in Africa published between Jan 1, 1980, and March 3, 2023. We pooled surveys using Bayesian generalised linear mixed-effects models, used meta-regression to assess time trends, and compared HIV incidence estimates among MSM with those of all men.

FINDINGS

Of 9278 articles identified, we included 152 unique studies published in 2005-23. In 2020, we estimate that 73% (95% credible interval [CrI] 62-87) of MSM had ever tested for HIV. HIV testing in the past 12 months increased over time in central, western, eastern, and southern Africa (odds ratio per year [ORyear] 1·23, 95% CrI 1·01-1·51, n=46) and in 2020 an estimated 82% (70-91) had tested in the past 12 months, but only 51% (30-72) of MSM living with HIV knew their HIV status. Current ART use increased over time in central and western (ORyear 1·41, 1·08-1·93, n=9) and eastern and southern Africa (ORyear 1·37, 1·04-1·84, n=17). We estimated that, in 2020, 73% (47-88) of all MSM living with HIV in Africa were currently on ART. Nevertheless, we did not find strong evidence to suggest that viral suppression increased, with only 69% (38-89) of MSM living with HIV estimated to be virally suppressed in 2020. We found insufficient evidence of a decrease in HIV incidence over time (incidence ratio per year 0·96, 95% CrI 0·63-1·50, n=39), and HIV incidence remained high in 2020 (6·9 per 100 person-years, 95% CrI 3·1-27·6) and substantially higher (27-199 times higher) than among all men.

INTERPRETATION

HIV incidence remains high, and might not be decreasing among MSM in Africa over time, despite some increases in HIV testing and ART use. Achieving the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets for diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression equitably for all requires renewed focus on this key population. Combination interventions for MSM are urgently required to reduce disparities in HIV incidence and tackle the social, structural, and behavioural factors that make MSM vulnerable to HIV acquisition.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health, UK Medical Research Council, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and Fonds de Recherche du Québec-Santé.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

HIV prevalence, risk behaviour, and treatment and prevention cascade outcomes among cisgender men, transgender women, and transgender men who sell sex in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional analysis of programme data

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of evidence on HIV vulnerabilities and service engagements among people who sell sex in sub-Saharan Africa and identify as cisgender men, transgender women, or transgender men. We aimed to describe sexual risk behaviours, HIV prevalence, and access to HIV services among cisgender men, transgender women, and transgender men who sell sex in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

We did a cross-sectional analysis of routine programme data that were collected between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2020, from cisgender men who sell sex, transgender women who sell sex, and transgender men who sell sex, as part of accessing sexual and reproductive health and HIV services provided through the Sisters with a Voice programme, at 31 sites across Zimbabwe. All people who sell sex reached by the programme had routine data collected, including routine HIV testing, and were referred using a network of peer educators. Sexual risk behaviours, HIV prevalence, and HIV services uptake during the period from July, 2018, to June, 2020, were analysed through descriptive statistics by gender group.

FINDINGS

A total of 1003 people who sell sex were included in our analysis: 423 (42·2%) cisgender men, 343 (34·2%) transgender women, and 237 (23·6%) transgender men. Age-standardised HIV prevalence estimates were 26·2% (95% CI 22·0-30·7) among cisgender men, 39·4% (34·1-44·9) among transgender women, and 38·4% (32·1-45·0) among transgender men. Among people living with HIV, 66·0% (95% CI 55·7-75·3) of cisgender men, 74·8% (65·8-82·4) of transgender women, and 70·2% (59·3-79·7) of transgender men knew their HIV status, and 15·5% (8·9-24·2), 15·7% (9·5-23·6), and 11·9% (5·9-20·8) were on antiretroviral therapy, respectively. Self-reported condom use was consistently low across gender groups, ranging from 26% (95% CI 22-32) for anal sex among transgender women to 32% (27-37) for vaginal sex among cisgender men.

INTERPRETATION

These unique data show that people who sell sex and identify as cisgender men, transgender women, or transgender men in sub-Saharan Africa have high HIV prevalences and risk of infection, with alarmingly low access to HIV prevention, testing, and treatment services. There is an urgent need for people-centred HIV interventions for these high-risk groups and for more inclusive HIV policies and research to ensure we truly attain universal access for all.

FUNDING

Aidsfonds Netherlands.

When Does Differential Outcome Misclassification Matter for Estimating Prevalence?

BACKGROUND

When accounting for misclassification, investigators make assumptions about whether misclassification is "differential" or "nondifferential." Most guidance on differential misclassification considers settings where outcome misclassification varies across levels of exposure, or vice versa. Here, we examine when covariate-differential misclassification must be considered when estimating overall outcome prevalence.

METHODS

We generated datasets with outcome misclassification under five data generating mechanisms. In each, we estimated prevalence using estimators that (a) ignored misclassification, (b) assumed misclassification was nondifferential, and (c) allowed misclassification to vary across levels of a covariate. We compared bias and precision in estimated prevalence in the study sample and an external target population using different sources of validation data to account for misclassification. We illustrated use of each approach to estimate HIV prevalence using self-reported HIV status among people in East Africa cross-border areas.

RESULTS

The estimator that allowed misclassification to vary across levels of the covariate produced results with little bias for both populations in all scenarios but had higher variability when the validation study contained sparse strata. Estimators that assumed nondifferential misclassification produced results with little bias when the covariate distribution in the validation data matched the covariate distribution in the target population; otherwise estimates assuming nondifferential misclassification were biased.

CONCLUSIONS

If validation data are a simple random sample from the target population, assuming nondifferential outcome misclassification will yield prevalence estimates with little bias regardless of whether misclassification varies across covariates. Otherwise, obtaining valid prevalence estimates requires incorporating covariates into the estimators used to account for misclassification.

The effects of intimate partner violence on women's risk of HIV acquisition and engagement in the HIV treatment and care cascade: a pooled analysis of nationally representative surveys in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Achieving the 95-95-95 targets for HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral load suppression to end the HIV epidemic hinges on eliminating structural inequalities, including intimate partner violence (IPV). Sub-Saharan Africa has among the highest prevalence of IPV and HIV worldwide. We aimed to examine the effects of IPV on recent HIV infection and women's engagement in the HIV care cascade in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We did a retrospective pooled analysis of data from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys with information on physical or sexual IPV (or both) and HIV testing, from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2020. Relevant surveys were identified from data catalogues and previous large-scale reviews, and included the Demographic and Health Survey, the AIDS Indicator Survey, the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, and the South Africa National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behavior and Communication Survey. Individual-level data on all female respondents who were ever-partnered (currently or formerly married or cohabiting) and aged 15 years or older were included. We used Poisson regression to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) for the association between past-year experience of physical or sexual IPV (or both), as the primary exposure, and recent HIV infection (measured with recency assays), as the primary outcome. We also assessed associations of past-year IPV with self-reported HIV testing (also in the past year), and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake and viral load suppression at the time of surveying. Models were adjusted for participant age, age at sexual debut (HIV recency analysis), urban or rural residency, partnership status, education, and survey-level fixed effects.

FINDINGS

57 surveys with data on self-reported HIV testing and past-year physical or sexual IPV were available from 30 countries, encompassing 280 259 ever-partnered women aged 15-64 years. 59 456 (21·2%) women had experienced physical or sexual IPV in the past year. Six surveys had information on recent HIV infection and seven had data on ART uptake and viral load suppression. The crude PR for recent HIV infection among women who had experienced past-year physical or sexual IPV, versus those who had not, was 3·51 (95% CI 1·64-7·51; n=19 179). The adjusted PR was 3·22 (1·51-6·85). Past-year physical or sexual IPV had minimal effect on self-reported HIV testing in the past year in crude analysis (PR 0·97 [0·96-0·98]; n=274 506) and adjusted analysis (adjusted PR 0·99 [0·98-1·01]). Results were inconclusive for the association of ART uptake with past-year IPV among women living with HIV (crude PR 0·90 [0·85-0·96], adjusted PR 0·96 [0·90-1·02]; n=5629). Women living with HIV who had experienced physical or sexual IPV in the past year were less likely to achieve viral load suppression than those who had not experienced past-year IPV (crude PR 0·85 [0·79-0·91], adjusted PR 0·91 [0·84-0·98], n=5627).

INTERPRETATION

Past-year physical or sexual IPV was associated with recent HIV acquisition and less frequent viral load suppression. Preventing IPV is inherently imperative but eliminating IPV could contribute to ending the HIV epidemic.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Canada Research Chairs Program, and Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé.

TRANSLATIONS

For the French, Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Individual and household factors associated with non-disclosure of positive HIV status in a population-based HIV serosurvey

OBJECTIVES

Non-disclosure of positive HIV status in population-based surveys causes underestimation of national HIV diagnosis and biases inferences about engagement in the care continuum. This study investigated individual and household factors associated with HIV non-disclosure to survey interviewers in Nigeria.

DESIGN

Secondary analysis of a cross sectional population-based household HIV survey.

METHODS

We analyzed data from adults aged 15-64 years who tested positive for HIV and had antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) in their blood from a nationally representative HIV sero-survey conducted in Nigeria in 2018. We considered ARV use as a proxy for knowledge of HIV diagnosis; thus, respondents who self-reported to be unaware of their HIV status were classified as non-disclosers. We estimated the associations between non-disclosure and various sociodemographic, clinical, and household characteristics using weighted logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 1266 respondents living with HIV who were taking ARVs, 503 (40%) did not disclose their HIV status to interviewers. In multivariable statistical analyses, the adjusted odds of non-disclosure were highest among respondents aged 15-24 years, those with less than a primary school education, and those who were the only person living with HIV in their household.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-disclosure of positive HIV status to survey personnel is common among adults who are receiving treatment in Nigeria. These findings highlight the importance of validating self-reported HIV status in surveys using biomarkers of ARV use. Meanwhile, it is crucial to improve disclosure by strengthening interview procedures and tailoring strategies towards groups that are disproportionately likely to underreport HIV diagnoses.

Under-Reporting of Known HIV-Positive Status Among People Living with HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Monitoring progress towards the UNAIDS 'first 90' target requires accurate estimates of levels of diagnosis among people living with HIV (PLHIV), which is often estimated using self-report. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis quantifying under-reporting of known HIV-positive status using objective knowledge proxies. Databases were searched for studies providing self-reported and biological/clinical markers of prior knowledge of HIV-positive status among PLHIV. Random-effects models were used to derive pooled estimates of levels of under-reporting. Thirty-two estimates from 26 studies were included (41,465 PLHIV). The pooled proportion under-reporting known HIV-positive status was 20% (95% confidence interval 13-26%, I2 = 99%). In sub-group analysis, under-reporting was higher among men who have sex with men (32%, number of estimates [Ne] = 10) compared to the general population (9%, Ne = 10) and among Black (18%, Ne = 5) than non-Black (3%, Ne = 3) individuals. Supplementing self-reported data with biological/clinical proxies may improve the validity of the 'first 90' estimates.

The Value of Assessing Self-Reported and Biological Indicators of Outcomes in Evaluating HIV Programs

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this manuscript, we present recent findings concerning concordance and discrepancy between biological measures and self-reports of these three outcomes of HIV programs: HIV status, adherence to antiretroviral medications (ARVs) and use of and adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis medication (PrEP), and condom use/unprotected sex.

RECENT FINDINGS

Recent studies suggest that three successive rapid HIV tests (for those whose first test in positive) might be reasonably inexpensive and valid biological data to collect to combine with self-reports of HIV status, dried blood spots sufficiently affordable to combine with self-reports of adherence to ARVs and use of or adherence to PrEP, and that the discrepancy between self-reports of condom use and biomarkers of unprotected sex may be relatively small in high-income countries. Additional work on assessment of incorrect condom usage and breakage, standardized self-report measures of condom use, and more private data collection methodologies in low-income settings might reduce the recent observed discrepancies even further. Concordance between self-reports of HIV and biomarkers indicating HIV positive status has varied considerably, with much lower rates in low-income countries, where the stigma of HIV is still very high. Recommendation is for combining self-report data with the results of three successive rapid tests for those testing positive. For adherence, again agreement between self-reports and a variety of more objective and/or biological measures is only moderate. Dried blood spots (DBS) may be sufficiently inexpensive in low-resource settings that this may be the best biological method to combine with self-reports. In publications over the last 8 years, the discrepancy between self-reports of condom use and biomarkers for unprotected sex may be even lower than 20% after controlling for other features of the study, particularly in high-income countries. Our results suggest that more careful assessment of incorrect condom use and breakage as reasons other than intentional misreporting should be investigated more carefully and that more private data collection methods such as audio, computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) might be employed more often in low-resource settings to reduce this discrepancy in those settings further. In addition, further analysis of the discrepancy between self-reports of condom use and biomarkers should be conducted of published studies using the correct calculation methods to be more certain of these findings.

Trends in knowledge of HIV status and efficiency of HIV testing services in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-20: a modelling study using survey and HIV testing programme data

BACKGROUND

Monitoring knowledge of HIV status among people living with HIV is essential for an effective national HIV response. This study estimates progress and gaps in reaching the UNAIDS 2020 target of 90% knowledge of status, and the efficiency of HIV testing services in sub-Saharan Africa, where two thirds of all people living with HIV reside.

METHODS

For this modelling study, we used data from 183 population-based surveys (including more than 2·7 million participants) and national HIV testing programme reports (315 country-years) from 40 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as inputs into a mathematical model to examine trends in knowledge of status among people living with HIV, median time from HIV infection to diagnosis, HIV testing positivity, and proportion of new diagnoses among all positive tests, adjusting for retesting. We included data from 2000 to 2019, and projected results to 2020.

FINDINGS

Across sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge of status steadily increased from 5·7% (95% credible interval [CrI] 4·6-7·0) in 2000 to 84% (82-86) in 2020. 12 countries and one region, southern Africa, reached the 90% target. In 2020, knowledge of status was lower among men (79%, 95% CrI 76-81) than women (87%, 85-89) across sub-Saharan Africa. People living with HIV aged 15-24 years were the least likely to know their status (65%, 62-69), but the largest gap in terms of absolute numbers was among men aged 35-49 years, with 701 000 (95% CrI 611 000-788 000) remaining undiagnosed. As knowledge of status increased from 2000 to 2020, the median time to diagnosis decreased from 9·6 years (9·1-10) to 2·6 years (1·8-3·5), HIV testing positivity declined from 9·0% (7·7-10) to 2·8% (2·1-3·9), and the proportion of first-time diagnoses among all positive tests dropped from 89% (77-96) to 42% (30-55).

INTERPRETATION

On the path towards the next UNAIDS target of 95% diagnostic coverage by 2025, and in a context of declining positivity and yield of first-time diagnoses, disparities in knowledge of status must be addressed. Increasing knowledge of status and treatment coverage among older men could be crucial to reducing HIV incidence among women in sub-Saharan Africa, and by extension, reducing mother-to-child transmission.

FUNDING

Steinberg Fund for Interdisciplinary Global Health Research (McGill University); Canadian Institutes of Health Research; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Fonds the recherche du Québec-Santé; UNAIDS; UK Medical Research Council; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in Adolescents and Mode of Transmission in Southern Africa: A Multinational Analysis of Population-Based Survey Data

Background

Adolescents aged 10–19 years living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (ALHIV), both perinatally infected adolescents (APHIV) and behaviorally infected adolescents (ABHIV), are a growing population with distinct care needs. We characterized the epidemiology of HIV in adolescents included in Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (2015–2017) in Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, Eswatini, and Lesotho.

Methods

Adolescents were tested for HIV using national rapid testing algorithms. Viral load (VL) suppression (VLS) was defined as VL <1000 copies/mL, and undetectable VL (UVL) as VL <50 copies/mL. Recent infection (within 6 months) was measured using a limiting antigen avidity assay, excluding adolescents with VLS or with detectable antiretrovirals (ARVs) in blood. To determine the most likely mode of infection, we used a risk algorithm incorporating recency, maternal HIV and vital status, history of sexual activity, and age at diagnosis.

Results

HIV prevalence ranged from 1.6% in Zambia to 4.8% in Eswatini. Of 707 ALHIV, 60.9% (95% confidence interval, 55.3%–66.6%) had HIV previously diagnosed, and 47.1% (41.9%–52.3%) had VLS. Our algorithm estimated that 72.6% of ALHIV (485 of 707) were APHIV, with HIV diagnosed previously in 69.5% of APHIV and 39.4% of ABHIV, and with 65.3% of APHIV and 33.5% of ABHIV receiving ARV treatment. Only 67.2% of APHIV and 60.5% of ABHIV receiving ARVs had UVL.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that two-thirds of ALHIV were perinatally infected, with many unaware of their status. The low prevalence of VLS and UVL in those receiving treatment raises concerns around treatment effectiveness. Expansion of opportunities for HIV diagnoses and the optimization of treatment are imperative.