Improved HIV-1 incidence estimates using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay

HIV incidence among women engaging in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Women who engage in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa have a high risk of acquiring HIV infection. HIV incidence has declined among all women in sub-Saharan Africa, but trends among women who engage in sex work are poorly characterised. We synthesised data on HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa and compared these with the total female population to understand relative incidence and trends over time.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 1990, to Feb 28, 2024, and grey literature for studies that reported empirical estimates of HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work in any sub-Saharan Africa country. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) compared with total female population incidence estimates matched for age, district, and year, did a meta-analysis of IRRs, and used a continuous mixed-effects model to estimate changes in IRR over time.

FINDINGS

From 32 studies done between 1985 and 2020, 2194 new HIV infections were observed among women who engage in sex work over 51 490 person-years. Median HIV incidence was 4·3 per 100 person years (IQR 2·8-7·0 per 100 person-years). Incidence among women who engage in sex work was eight times higher than matched total population women (IRR 7·8 [95% CI 5·1-11·8]), with larger relative difference in western and central Africa (19·9 [9·6-41·0]) than in eastern and southern Africa (4·9 [3·4-7·1]). There was no evidence that IRRs changed over time (IRR per 5 years: 0·9 [0·7-1·2]).

INTERPRETATION

Across sub-Saharan Africa, HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work remains disproportionately high compared with the total female population. However, constant relative incidence over time indicates HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work has declined at a similar rate. Location-specific data for women who engage in sex work incidence are sparse, but improved surveillance and standardisation of incidence measurement approaches could fill these gaps. Sustained and enhanced HIV prevention for women who engage in sex work is crucial to address continuing inequalities and ensure declines in new HIV infections.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Adjusting Incidence Estimates with Laboratory Test Performances: A Pragmatic Maximum Likelihood Estimation-Based Approach

Understanding the incidence of disease is often crucial for public policy decision-making, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating incidence is challenging, however, when the definition of incidence relies on tests that imperfectly measure disease, as in the case when assays with variable performance are used to detect the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To our knowledge, there are no pragmatic methods to address the bias introduced by the performance of labs in testing for the virus. In the setting of a longitudinal study, we developed a maximum likelihood estimation-based approach to estimate laboratory performance-adjusted incidence using the expectation-maximization algorithm. We constructed confidence intervals (CIs) using both bootstrapped-based and large-sample interval estimator approaches. We evaluated our methods through extensive simulation and applied them to a real-world study (TrackCOVID), where the primary goal was to determine the incidence of and risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in the San Francisco Bay Area from July 2020 to March 2021. Our simulations demonstrated that our method converged rapidly with accurate estimates under a variety of scenarios. Bootstrapped-based CIs were comparable to the large-sample estimator CIs with a reasonable number of incident cases, shown via a simulation scenario based on the real TrackCOVID study. In more extreme simulated scenarios, the coverage of large-sample interval estimation outperformed the bootstrapped-based approach. Results from the application to the TrackCOVID study suggested that assuming perfect laboratory test performance can lead to an inaccurate inference of the incidence. Our flexible, pragmatic method can be extended to a variety of disease and study settings.

Statistical considerations for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on recency test

Longitudinal cohorts to determine the incidence of HIV infection are logistically challenging, so researchers have sought alternative strategies. Recency test methods use biomarker profiles of HIV-infected subjects in a cross-sectional sample to infer whether they are "recently" infected and to estimate incidence in the population. Two main estimators have been used in practice: one that assumes a recency test is perfectly specific, and another that allows for false-recent results. To date, these commonly used estimators have not been rigorously studied with respect to their assumptions and statistical properties. In this article, we present a theoretical framework with which to understand these estimators and interrogate their assumptions, and perform a simulation study and data analysis to assess the performance of these estimators under realistic HIV epidemiological dynamics. We find that the snapshot estimator and the adjusted estimator perform well when their corresponding assumptions hold. When assumptions on constant incidence and recency test characteristics fail to hold, the adjusted estimator is more robust than the snapshot estimator. We conclude with recommendations for the use of these estimators in practice and a discussion of future methodological developments to improve HIV incidence estimation via recency test.

Regional disparity of HIV incidence and prevalence among men who have sex with men

BACKGROUND

HIV incidence can be estimated with cross-sectional studies using clinical, serological, and molecular data. Worldwide, HIV incidence data in only men who have sex with men (MSM) are scarce and principally focus on those with healthcare or under treatment. However, better estimates can be obtained through studies with national representativeness. The objective was to estimate the prevalence, incidence, and factors associated with acquiring HIV in a national sample of MSM who attend meeting places, considering geographical regions.

METHODS

A nationally representative survey of MSM attending meeting places was performed in Mexico. Participants answered a questionnaire, and a dried blood spot (DBS) was collected. Samples were classified as recent infections using an algorithm with HIV status, antiretroviral therapy, and the result of BED-EIA assay. Parameters were analysed considering regions and demographic and sexual behaviour characteristics.

RESULTS

The national HIV prevalence was 17.4% with regional differences; the highest prevalence (20.7%) was found in Mexico City, and the lowest prevalence was found in the West region (11.5%). The incidence was 9.4 per 100 p/y, with regional values from 6.2 to 13.2 for the Northeast and the Centre regions, respectively. Age, age at sexual debut, low wealth index, and rewarded sex were associated with HIV prevalence. Centre region, use of private clinics as health services, and having sex exclusively with men were associated with recent HIV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and prevalence showed regional differences, suggesting a difference in the dynamics of HIV transmission; some regions have a greater case accumulation, and others have a greater rate of new infections. Understanding this dynamic will allow developing health programs focused on HIV prevention or treating people already living with HIV.

Field Validation of Limiting-Antigen Avidity Enzyme Immunoassay to Estimate HIV-1 Incidence in Cross-Sectional Survey in Swaziland

Reliable and accurate laboratory assays to detect recent HIV-1 infection have potential as simple and practical methods of estimating HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional surveys. This study describes validation of the limiting-antigen (LAg) avidity enzyme immunoassay (EIA) in a cross-sectional national survey, conducted in Swaziland, comparing it to prospective follow-up incidence. As part of the Swaziland HIV-1 Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS), 18,172 individuals underwent counseling and HIV rapid testing in a household-based, population survey conducted from December 2010 to June 2011. Plasma samples from HIV-positive persons were classified as recent infections using an incidence testing algorithm with LAg-Avidity EIA (normalized optical density ≤1.5) followed by viral load (VL ≥1,000 copies/mL). All HIV-seronegative samples were tested for acute HIV-1 infection by nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) pooling. HIV-seronegative individuals who consented to follow-up were retested ∼6 months later to detect observed HIV-1 seroconversion. HIV-1 incidence estimates based on LAg+VL and NAAT were calculated using assay-specific parameters and were compared with prospective incidence estimate. A total of 5,803 (31.9%) of 18,172 survey participants tested HIV seropositive; of these 5,683 (97.9%) were further tested with LAg+VL algorithm. The weighted annualized incidence from the longitudinal cohort study was 2.4% (95% confidence interval 2.0-2.7). Based on cross-sectional testing of HIV positives with LAg+VL algorithm, overall weighted annualized HIV-1 incidence was 2.5% (2.0-3.0), whereas NAAT-based incidence was of 2.6%. In addition, LAg-based incidence in men (1.8%; 1.2-2.5) and women (3.2%; 2.4-3.9) were similar to estimates based on observed incidence (men = 1.7%, women = 3.1%). Changes in HIV-1 incidence with age in men and women further validate plausibility of the algorithm. These results demonstrate that the LAg EIA, in a serial algorithm with VL, is a cost-effective tool to estimate HIV-1 incidence in cross-sectional surveys.

Evaluation of the Performance of Three Biomarker Assays for Recent HIV Infection Using a Well-Characterized HIV-1 Subtype C Incidence Cohort

Biomarkers for detecting early HIV infection and estimating HIV incidence should minimize false-recent rates (FRRs) while maximizing mean duration of recent infection (MDRI). We compared HIV subtypes B, E and D (BED) capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), Sedia limiting antigen (LAg) avidity enzyme immunoassay, and Bio-Rad avidity incidence (BRAI) assays using samples from Zimbabwean postpartum women infected with clade C HIV. We calculated MDRIs using 590 samples from 351 seroconverting postpartum women, and FRRs using samples from 2,825 women known to be HIV positive for >12 months. Antibody kinetics were more predictable with LAg and had higher precision compared with BED or BRAI. BRAI also exhibited more variability, and avidity reversal in some cases. For BED, LAg, and BRAI, used alone or with viral load, MDRI values in days were: BED-188 and 170 at normalized optical density (ODn) 0.8; LAg-104 and 100 at ODn cutoff 1.5; BRAI-135 and 134 at avidity index cutoff 30%. Corresponding FRRs were: BRAI 1.1% and 1.0% and LAg 0.57% and 0.35%: these were 3.8-10.9 times lower than BED values of 4.8% and 3.8%. BRAI and LAg have significantly lower FRRs and MDRIs than in published studies, and much lower than BED and could be used to estimate incidence in perinatal women and to measure population-level HIV incidence in HIV control operations in Africa.

Diagnosis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection

HIV diagnostics have played a central role in the remarkable progress in identifying, staging, initiating, and monitoring infected individuals on life-saving antiretroviral therapy. They are also useful in surveillance and outbreak responses, allowing for assessment of disease burden and identification of vulnerable populations and transmission "hot spots," thus enabling planning, appropriate interventions, and allocation of appropriate funding. HIV diagnostics are critical in achieving epidemic control and require a hybrid of conventional laboratory-based diagnostic tests and new technologies, including point-of-care (POC) testing, to expand coverage, increase access, and positively impact patient management. In this review, we provide (i) a historical perspective on the evolution of HIV diagnostics (serologic and molecular) and their interplay with WHO normative guidelines, (ii) a description of the role of conventional and POC testing within the tiered laboratory diagnostic network, (iii) information on the evaluations and selection of appropriate diagnostics, (iv) a description of the quality management systems needed to ensure reliability of testing, and (v) strategies to increase access while reducing the time to return results to patients. Maintaining the central role of HIV diagnostics in programs requires periodic monitoring and optimization with quality assurance in order to inform adjustments or alignment to achieve epidemic control.

Cross-sectional estimates revealed high HIV incidence in Botswana rural communities in the era of successful ART scale-up in 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Botswana is close to reaching the UNAIDS "90-90-90" HIV testing, antiretroviral treatment (ART), and viral suppression goals. We sought to determine HIV incidence in this setting with both high HIV prevalence and high ART coverage.

METHODS

We used a cross-sectional approach to assessing HIV incidence. A random, population-based sample of adults age 16-64 years was enrolled in 30 rural and peri-urban communities as part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP), from October 2013 -November 2015. Data and samples from the baseline household survey were used to estimate cross-sectional HIV incidence, following an algorithm that combined Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA), ART status (documented or by testing ARV drugs in plasma) and HIV-1 RNA load. The LAg-Avidity EIA cut-off normalized optical density (ODn) was set at 1.5. The HIV-1 RNA cut-off was set at 400 copies/mL. For estimation purposes, the Mean Duration of Recent Infection was 130 days and the False Recent Rate (FRR) was evaluated at values of either 0 or 0.39%.

RESULTS

Among 12,610 individuals participating in the baseline household survey, HIV status was available for 12,570 participants and 3,596 of them were HIV positive. LAg-Avidity EIA data was generated for 3,581 (99.6%) of HIV-positive participants. Of 326 participants with ODn ≤1.5, 278 individuals were receiving ART verified through documentation and were considered to represent longstanding HIV infections. Among the remaining 48 participants who reported no use of ART, 14 had an HIV-1 RNA load ≤400 copies/mL (including 3 participants with ARVs in plasma) and were excluded, as potential elite/viremic controllers or undisclosed ART. Thus, 34 LAg-Avidity-EIA-recent, ARV-naïve individuals with detectable HIV-1 RNA (>400 copies/mL) were classified as individuals with recent HIV infections. The annualized HIV incidence among 16-64 year old adults was estimated at 1.06% (95% CI 0.68-1.45%) with zero FRR, and at 0.64% (95% CI 0.24-1.04%) using a previously defined FRR of 0.39%. Within a subset of younger individuals 16-49 years old, the annualized HIV incidence was estimated at 1.29% (95% CI 0.82-1.77%) with zero FRR, and at 0.90% (95% CI 0.42-1.38%) with FRR set to 0.39%.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a cross-sectional estimate of HIV incidence from 2013-2015, we found that at the time of near achievement of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, ~1% of adults (age 16-64 years) in Botswana's rural and peri-urban communities became HIV infected annually.

HIV Incidence and Care Linkage among MSM First-Time-Testers in Shenyang, China 2012-2014

HIV testing is the first step to the fulfillment of Treat as Prevention (TasP) and reaching the 90-90-90 goal in HIV control. However, there are still a large number of Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) have never been tested for HIV before, and little is known about the HIV incidence and care linkage among this population. A Mixed method was used to recruit MSM who had never tested for HIV before from January 2012 to December 2014 in Shenyang, China. Potential MSM participants were invited to attend the enrollment for HIV and syphilis testing at a general hospital-based voluntary counseling and test (VCT). HIV confirmed positive subjects were further tested by BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) to determine the HIV incidence. Syphilis was screened by the rapid plasma reagent test (RPR) and confirmed by Treponema pallidum particle assay (TPPA). All the HIV positive subjects were referred to the local Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and clinics for HIV primary care and follow-ups. In total 646 HIV first-time-testers of MSM (FMSM) attended this study, 73.4% (474/646) were aged under 31-year-old and 57.3% (370/646) and used the Internet as their major cruising avenue for seeking male sexual partners. The average prevalence of HIV and current syphilis infection was 10.8% (70/646) and 11.0% (71/646), respectively. The HIV incidence was 10.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.1-14.5)/100PY. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that factors such as use of the Internet as the major cruising avenue (adjusted OR [AOR] 2.7, 95% CI 0.9-7.6) and having a current syphilis infection (AOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.8-12.2) were independent correlates of a recent HIV infection. Of the 95 HIV screening test positive FMSM, 73.7% (70/95) returned and be confirmed positive, 92.9% (65/70) of confirmed patients were linked to care. Among those retained and underwent CD4+ T cell test, 76.3% (42/55) started HIV antiretroviral therapy. Among the unconfirmed, 84.0% (21/25) were non-local migrants. The HIV incidence of FMSM in Shenyang was high. Future HIV testing program needs to keep on expanding among the MSM who have never been tested for HIV yet. The Internet-based campaigns and syphilis testing and treatment could represent an opportunity to get access to this hard-to-reach population and link them to HIV care. Future linkage to HIV care of this population should underscore the usage of HIV rapid diagnostic tests to prevent lost at early steps of linkage.

Western Blot-Based Logistic Regression Model for the Identification of Recent HIV-1 Infection: A Promising HIV-1 Surveillance Approach for Resource-Limited Regions

Objectives

Identifying recent infections is necessary to monitor HIV/AIDS epidemic; however, it needs to be further developed.

Methods and Results

Participants were defined as having recent infection or older infection according to the estimated duration of HIV-1 infection and further assigned into training set and validation set according to their entering time points. Western blot (WB) confirmatory test and BED-CEIA were performed. The performance of the two methods on recent HIV-1 diagnosis was evaluated and compared. 81 subjects were enrolled in the training set and 72 in the validation set. Relative grey ratios of p24, p39, p31, p66, gp41, and gp160 were significantly higher in older infected patients of the training set. The present status of p55 was more frequently missing in recently infected patients in both sets. The logistic stepwise regression analysis of WB method shows sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 93.02%, 92.11%, and 92.59%. For BED-CEIA, they were 76.74%, 86.84%, and 81.48%. In the validation set, overall agreement rate, sensitivity, and specificity were 88.46%, 84.78%, and 86.11% in the WB-based method and 50.00%, 84.78%, and 72.22% in the BED-CEIA method.

Conclusions

WB-based method is a promising approach to predict recent HIV-1 infection, especially in resource-limited regions.

Short Communication: Heightened HIV Antibody Responses in Postpartum Women as Exemplified by Recent Infection Assays: Implications for Incidence Estimates

Laboratory assays that identify recent HIV infections are important for assessing impacts of interventions aimed at reducing HIV incidence. Kinetics of HIV humoral responses can vary with inherent assay properties, and between HIV subtypes, populations, and physiological states. They are important in determining mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for antibody-based assays for detecting recent HIV infections. We determined MDRIs for multi-subtype peptide representing subtypes B, E and D (BED)-capture enzyme immunoassay, limiting antigen (LAg), and Bio-Rad Avidity Incidence (BRAI) assays for 101 seroconverting postpartum women, recruited in Harare from 1997 to 2000 during the Zimbabwe Vitamin A for Mothers and Babies trial, comparing them against published MDRIs estimated from seroconverting cases in the general population. We also compared MDRIs for women who seroconverted either during the first 9 months, or at later stages, postpartum. At cutoffs (C) of 0.8 for BED, 1.5 for LAg, and 40% for BRAI, estimated MDRIs for postpartum mothers were 192, 104, and 144 days, 33%, 32%, and 52% lower than published estimates of 287, 152 and 298 days, respectively, for clade C samples from general populations. Point estimates of MDRI values were 7%-19% shorter for women who seroconverted in the first 9 months postpartum than for those seroconverting later. MDRI values for three HIV incidence biomarkers are longer in the general population than among postpartum women, particularly those who recently gave birth, consistent with heightened immunological activation soon after birth. Our results provide a caution that MDRI may vary significantly between subjects in different physiological states.

Estimating False-Recent Classification for the Limiting-Antigen Avidity EIA and BED-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay in Vietnam: Implications for HIV-1 Incidence Estimates

Laboratory tests that can distinguish recent from long-term HIV infection are used to estimate HIV incidence in a population, but can potentially misclassify a proportion of long-term HIV infections as recent. Correct application of an assay requires determination of the proportion false recents (PFRs) as part of the assay characterization and for calculating HIV incidence in a local population using a HIV incidence assay. From April 2009 to December 2010, blood specimens were collected from HIV-infected individuals attending nine outpatient clinics (OPCs) in Vietnam (four from northern and five from southern Vietnam). Participants were living with HIV for ≥1 year and reported no antiretroviral (ARV) drug treatment. Basic demographic data and clinical information were collected. Specimens were tested with the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) and the Limiting-antigen (LAg)-Avidity EIA. PFR was estimated by dividing the number of specimens classified as recent by the total number of specimens; 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Specimens that tested recent had viral load testing performed. Among 1,813 specimens (north, n = 942 and south, n = 871), the LAg-Avidity EIA PFR was 1.7% (CI: 1.2-2.4) and differed by region [north 2.7% (CI: 1.8-3.9) versus south 0.7% (CI: 0.3-1.5); p = .002]. The BED-CEIA PFR was 2.3% (CI: 1.7-3.0) and varied by region [north 3.4% (CI: 2.4-4.7) versus south 1.0% (CI: 0.5-1.2), p < .001]. Excluding specimens with an undetectable VL, the LAg-Avidity EIA PFR was 1.2% (CI: 0.8-1.9) and the BED-CEIA PFR was 1.7% (CI: 1.2-2.4). The LAg-Avidity EIA PFR was lower than the BED-CEIA PFR. After excluding specimens with an undetectable VL, the PFR for both assays was similar. A low PFR should facilitate the implementation of the LAg-Avidity EIA for cross-sectional incidence estimates in Vietnam.

Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Surveillance: A Benchmarking of Approaches for Estimating the 'Mean Duration of Recent Infection'

The application of biomarkers for 'recent' infection in cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillance requires the estimation of critical biomarker characteristics. Various approaches have been employed for using longitudinal data to estimate the Mean Duration of Recent Infection (MDRI) - the average time in the 'recent' state. In this systematic benchmarking of MDRI estimation approaches, a simulation platform was used to measure accuracy and precision of over twenty approaches, in thirty scenarios capturing various study designs, subject behaviors and test dynamics that may be encountered in practice. Results highlight that assuming a single continuous sojourn in the 'recent' state can produce substantial bias. Simple interpolation provides useful MDRI estimates provided subjects are tested at regular intervals. Regression performs the best - while 'random effects' describe the subject-clustering in the data, regression models without random effects proved easy to implement, stable, and of similar accuracy in scenarios considered; robustness to parametric assumptions was improved by regressing 'recent'/'non-recent' classifications rather than continuous biomarker readings. All approaches were vulnerable to incorrect assumptions about subjects' (unobserved) infection times. Results provided show the relationships between MDRI estimation performance and the number of subjects, inter-visit intervals, missed visits, loss to follow-up, and aspects of biomarker signal and noise.

Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Surveillance: A Benchmarking of Approaches for Estimating the 'Mean Duration of Recent Infection'

The application of biomarkers for 'recent' infection in cross-sectional HIV incidence surveillance requires the estimation of critical biomarker characteristics. Various approaches have been employed for using longitudinal data to estimate the Mean Duration of Recent Infection (MDRI) - the average time in the 'recent' state. In this systematic benchmarking of MDRI estimation approaches, a simulation platform was used to measure accuracy and precision of over twenty approaches, in thirty scenarios capturing various study designs, subject behaviors and test dynamics that may be encountered in practice. Results highlight that assuming a single continuous sojourn in the 'recent' state can produce substantial bias. Simple interpolation provides useful MDRI estimates provided subjects are tested at regular intervals. Regression performs the best - while 'random effects' describe the subject-clustering in the data, regression models without random effects proved easy to implement, stable, and of similar accuracy in scenarios considered; robustness to parametric assumptions was improved by regressing 'recent'/'non-recent' classifications rather than continuous biomarker readings. All approaches were vulnerable to incorrect assumptions about subjects' (unobserved) infection times. Results provided show the relationships between MDRI estimation performance and the number of subjects, inter-visit intervals, missed visits, loss to follow-up, and aspects of biomarker signal and noise.

Moving towards a reliable HIV incidence test - current status, resources available, future directions and challenges ahead

In 2011 the Incidence Assay Critical Path Working Group reviewed the current state of HIV incidence assays and helped to determine a critical path to the introduction of an HIV incidence assay. At that time the Consortium for Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA) was formed to spur progress and raise standards among assay developers, scientists and laboratories involved in HIV incidence measurement and to structure and conduct a direct independent comparative evaluation of the performance of 10 existing HIV incidence assays, to be considered singly and in combinations as recent infection test algorithms. In this paper we report on a new framework for HIV incidence assay evaluation that has emerged from this effort over the past 5 years, which includes a preliminary target product profile for an incidence assay, a consensus around key performance metrics along with analytical tools and deployment of a standardized approach for incidence assay evaluation. The specimen panels for this evaluation have been collected in large volumes, characterized using a novel approach for infection dating rules and assembled into panels designed to assess the impact of important sources of measurement error with incidence assays such as viral subtype, elite host control of viraemia and antiretroviral treatment. We present the specific rationale for several of these innovations, and discuss important resources for assay developers and researchers that have recently become available. Finally, we summarize the key remaining steps on the path to development and implementation of reliable assays for monitoring HIV incidence at a population level.

Viral load criteria and threshold optimization to improve HIV incidence assay characteristics

OBJECTIVE

Assays for classifying HIV infections as 'recent' or 'nonrecent' for incidence surveillance fail to simultaneously achieve large mean durations of 'recent' infection (MDRIs) and low 'false-recent' rates (FRRs), particularly in virally suppressed persons. The potential for optimizing recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs), by introducing viral load criteria and tuning thresholds used to dichotomize quantitative measures, is explored.

DESIGN

The Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays characterized over 2000 possible RITAs constructed from seven assays (Limiting Antigen, BED, Less-sensitive Vitros, Vitros Avidity, BioRad Avidity, Architect Avidity, and Geenius) applied to 2500 diverse specimens.

METHODS

MDRIs were estimated using regression, and FRRs as observed 'recent' proportions, in various specimen sets. Context-specific FRRs were estimated for hypothetical scenarios. FRRs were made directly comparable by constructing RITAs with the same MDRI through the tuning of thresholds. RITA utility was summarized by the precision of incidence estimation.

RESULTS

All assays produce high FRRs among treated patients and elite controllers (10-80%). Viral load testing reduces FRRs, but diminishes MDRIs. Context-specific FRRs vary substantially by scenario - BioRad Avidity and Limiting Antigen provided the lowest FRRs and highest incidence precision in scenarios considered.

CONCLUSION

The introduction of a low viral load threshold provides crucial improvements in RITAs. However, it does not eliminate nonzero FRRs, and MDRIs must be consistently estimated. The tuning of thresholds is essential for comparing and optimizing the use of assays. The translation of directly measured FRRs into context-specific FRRs critically affects their magnitudes and our understanding of the utility of assays.

Characteristics of Transmitted Drug-Resistant HIV-1 in Recently Infected Treatment-Naive Patients in Japan

OBJECTIVES

Progress in antiretroviral treatment has led to fewer virological failure cases, but 10%-20% of treatment-naive HIV/AIDS cases are reported to harbor drug-resistant strains, suggesting transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We aimed to determine the trend in prevalence of transmitted drug-resistant (TDR) HIV in Japan, particularly in recently infected patients.

METHODS

Drug-resistance test was performed on 3904 HIV-1-infected cases newly diagnosed between 2007 and 2012. The number of cases infected within 6 months [recent seroconverters (RS)] was estimated by BED assay of 2700 plasma samples. Characteristics of RS cases were further analyzed.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of TDR was 9.1%, ranging from 7.3% in 2008% to 12.5% in 2010. Among 1403 subtype B/E/D cases with >50 CD4 T cell counts and >1000 HIV copies per milliliter, 468 (33.4%) were estimated to be RS. The prevalence of RS was significantly higher among cases who were male, Japanese, and men who have sex with men. The prevalence of TDR did not differ significantly between recent and long-term seroconverters (8.5% vs. 9.2%, respectively, P = 0.68). Common mutations in both groups were M46I/L and T215 revertants. Furthermore, sequences with these mutations, K103N and D30N/N88D formed clusters on phylogenetic trees.

CONCLUSION

Our study clarified an increase in prevalence of TDR in Japan from 2007 to 2012. The phylogenetic clustering of cases with M46I/L or T215 revertants suggests that HIV with these mutations have become circulating strains. Furthermore, detailed analyses showed that Japanese men who have sex with men are more aware of their risk of HIV infection.

HIV incidence and associated risk factors in men who have sex with men in Mainland China: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: The national annually reported proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) among people living with HIV (PLWH) is growing in China. To better inform the public health sector how to improve HIV prevention strategies, it is necessary to understand the current level of HIV incidence and its correlates. Methods: Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science and three major Chinese electronic publication databases (http://qikan.cqvip.com/, http://g.wanfangdata.com.cn/, http://www.cnki.net/, respectively) were searched for studies reporting HIV incidence. Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) 2.0 statistical software (Biostat, Inc. Englewood, NJ, USA) was used to calculate the pooled HIV incidence and perform subgroup-analysis to find correlates for HIV seroconversion in Chinese MSM. Random effects modelling was then conducted. Results: Twenty-five eligible studies were included in this meta-analysis. The calculated pooled HIV incidence was 5.61/100 person years (PY), with an increasing trend over time (3.24/100PY, 5.29/100PY, 5.50/100PY in 2005-2008, 2009-2011, 2012-2014 respectively, χ2 test for trend P = 0.04). Subgroup analyses indicated that age <25 years (rate ratio (RR) = 1.85), junior college education and below (RR = 1.87), having ≥ 2 male sexual partners in past 6 months (RR = 2.50), baseline syphilis infection (RR = 2.99), homosexual orientation (RR = 1.91), preferred bottom/versatile roles in anal sexual intercourse (RR = 2.33), and having unprotected anal intercourse in the past 6 months (RR = 2.16) significantly increased the risk for HIV seroconversion (each P < 0.05). Uncircumcised MSM had a marginal statistically significant higher HIV incidence (RR = 3.35, P = 0.051). Conclusion: HIV incidence is still alarmingly high among Chinese MSM. Stronger HIV intervention strategies should be implemented, in particular targeting young, less educated and syphilis-infected MSM.

Measuring the HIV Care Continuum Using Public Health Surveillance Data in the United States

The HIV care continuum is a critical framework for situational awareness of the HIV epidemic; yet challenges to accurate enumeration of continuum components hamper continuum estimation in practice. We describe local surveillance-based estimation of the HIV continuum in the United States, reviewing common practices as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Furthermore, we review some challenges and biases likely to threaten existing continuum estimates. Current estimates rely heavily on the use of CD4 cell count and HIV viral load laboratory results reported to surveillance programs as a proxy for receipt of HIV-related outpatient care. As such, continuum estimates are susceptible to bias because of incomplete laboratory reporting and imperfect sensitivity and specificity of laboratory tests as a proxy for routine HIV care. Migration of HIV-infected persons between jurisdictions also threatens the validity of continuum estimates. Data triangulation may improve but not fully alleviate biases.

Timing of antiretroviral therapy initiation after diagnosis of recent human immunodeficiency virus infection and CD4(+) T-cell recovery

We retrospectively examined the timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and CD4(+) T-cell recovery over 36 months among recent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections using BED (HIV-1 subtypes B, E and D) immunoglobulin G capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA). Regardless of baseline CD4(+) counts, individuals (n = 393) who initiated ART >2 months after diagnosis had significantly decreased probability and rate of achieving CD4(+) counts ≥900 cells/μL or ≥600 cells/μL than those individuals (n = 135) who started ART earlier (≤2 months). But the mean CD4(+) counts in two groups converged after 30 months of treatment. Early ART initiation leads to accelerated CD4(+) recovery, but does not offer a long-term advantage in CD4(+) counts.

High prevalence and incidence of HIV-1 in a counseling and testing center in the city of Itajaí, Brazil

Itajaí is a port city in southern Brazil with one of the highest incidence and mortality rates from AIDS in the country. The prevalence and incidence of HIV infection were investigated in 1085 of 3196 new HIV-1 infection cases evaluated in the counseling and testing center of Itajaí from January 2002 to August 2008. Recent infections were assessed using the BED™, and pol region sequencing was performed in 76 samples. The prevalence ranged from 3.08% to 6.17% among women and from 10.26% to 17.36% among men. A total of 17% of infections were classified as recent, with annual incidence varying from 1.6% to 4.8 per 100 patient/year among women and from 2.05% to 8.5 per 100 patient/year among men. Pol sequences were obtained from 38 randomly recent infections selected individuals: 71% were infected by subtype C, 24% B, 2% D, and 2% F1. Among 38 subjects with established infection, 76% were subtype C, and 24% B. Transmitted drug resistance was detected in 18.4% of recent infection subjects (7.8% to nucleoside analog reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, 5.2% to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, and 5.2% protease inhibitors) and 5.2% of subjects with established infection had nucleoside analog reverse-transcriptase inhibitors resistance.

The high prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in this region is unprecedented in studies involving cases evaluated in the counseling and testing centers in Brazil.

Trends of HIV-1 incidence with credible intervals in Sweden 2002-09 reconstructed using a dynamic model of within-patient IgG growth

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 is a lifelong disease, often without serious symptoms for years after infection, and thus many infected persons go undetected for a long time. This makes it difficult to track incidence, and thus epidemics may go through dramatic changes largely unnoticed, only to be detected years later. Because direct measurement of incidence is expensive and difficult, several biomarker-based tests and algorithms have been developed to distinguish between recent and long-term infections. However, current methods have been criticized and demands for novel methods have been raised.

METHODS

We developed and applied a biomarker-based incidence model, joining a time-continuous model of immunoglobulin G (IgG) growth (measured by the IgG-capture BED-enzyme immunoassay) with statistical corrections for both sample size and unobserved diagnoses. Our method uses measurements of IgG concentration in newly diagnosed people to calculate the posterior distribution of infection times. Time from infection to diagnosis is modelled for all individuals in a given period and is used to calculate a sample weight to correct for undiagnosed individuals. We then used a bootstrapping method to reconstruct point estimates and credible intervals of the incidence of HIV-1 in Sweden based on a sample of newly diagnosed people.

RESULTS

We found evidence for: (i) a slowly but steadily increasing trend in both the incidence and incidence rate in Sweden; and (ii) an increasing but well-controlled epidemic in gay men in Stockholm. Sensitivity analyses showed that our method was robust to realistic levels (up to 15%) of BED misclassification of non-recently infected persons as early infections.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a novel incidence estimator based on previously published theoretical work that has the potential to provide rapid, up-to-date estimates of HIV-1 incidence in populations where BED test data are available.

Recalibration of the limiting antigen avidity EIA to determine mean duration of recent infection in divergent HIV-1 subtypes

Background

Mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and misclassification of long-term HIV-1 infections, as proportion false recent (PFR), are critical parameters for laboratory-based assays for estimating HIV-1 incidence. Recent review of the data by us and others indicated that MDRI of LAg-Avidity EIA estimated previously required recalibration. We present here results of recalibration efforts using >250 seroconversion panels and multiple statistical methods to ensure accuracy and consensus.

Methods

A total of 2737 longitudinal specimens collected from 259 seroconverting individuals infected with diverse HIV-1 subtypes were tested with the LAg-Avidity EIA as previously described. Data were analyzed for determination of MDRI at ODn cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0 using 7 statistical approaches and sub-analyzed by HIV-1 subtypes. In addition, 3740 specimens from individuals with infection >1 year, including 488 from patients with AIDS, were tested for PFR at varying cutoffs.

Results

Using different statistical methods, MDRI values ranged from 88–94 days at cutoff ODn = 1.0 to 177–183 days at ODn = 2.0. The MDRI values were similar by different methods suggesting coherence of different approaches. Testing for misclassification among long-term infections indicated that overall PFRs were 0.6% to 2.5% at increasing cutoffs of 1.0 to 2.0, respectively. Balancing the need for a longer MDRI and smaller PFR (<2.0%) suggests that a cutoff ODn = 1.5, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days should be used for cross-sectional application. The MDRI varied among subtypes from 109 days (subtype A&D) to 152 days (subtype C).

Conclusions

Based on the new data and revised analysis, we recommend an ODn cutoff = 1.5 to classify recent and long-term infections, corresponding to an MDRI of 130 days (118–142). Determination of revised parameters for estimation of HIV-1 incidence should facilitate application of the LAg-Avidity EIA for worldwide use.

Mixture models for calibrating the BED for HIV incidence testing

A number of antibody biomarkers have been developed to distinguish between recent and established Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and used for HIV incidence estimation from cross-sectional specimens. In general, a cut-off value is specified, and estimates of the following parameters are needed: (i) the mean time interval .w/ between seroconversion and reaching that cut-off; (ii) the probability of correctly identifying individuals who became infected in the last w years (sensitivity); and (iii) the probability of correctly identifying individuals who have been infected for more than w years (specificity). We develop two statistical methods to study the distribution of a biomarker and derive a formula for estimating HIV incidence from a cross-sectional survey. Both methods allow handling interval censored data and basically consist of using a generalized mixture model to model the growth of the biomarker as a function of time since infection. The first uses data from all followed-up individuals and allows incidence estimation in the cohort, whereas the second only uses data from seroconverters. We illustrate our methods using repeated measures of the IgG capture BED enzyme immunoassay. Estimates of calibration parameters, that is, mean window period, mean recency period, sensitivity, and specificities obtained from both models are comparable. The formula derived for incidence estimation gives the maximum likelihood estimate of incidence which, for a given window period, depends only on sensitivity and specificity. The optimal choice of the window period is discussed. Numerical simulations suggest that data from seroconverters can provide reasonable estimates of the calibration parameters.

Comparison among the BED capture enzyme immunoassay test and AxSYM avidity index assay for determining recent HIV infection and incidence in two Voluntary Counselling and Testing Centres in Northeast Brazil

The aims of this study were to compare the automated AxSYM avidity assay index with the BED capture enzyme immunoassay test and to calculate the HIV-1 incidence using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay and AxSYM avidity assay index algorithms within a population seeking the Voluntary Counselling and Testing Centres in two municipalities in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Northeast of Brazil. An analysis was conducted in 365 samples that tested positive for HIV infection from frozen serum collected during the period 2006–2009. There was a similar proportion of males and females; most patients were heterosexual (86%) with a median age of 29 years. Of the 365 samples, 102 (28%) and 66 (18.1%) were identified as recent infections by BED capture enzyme immunoassay and AxSYM avidity assay index, respectively. The HIV-1 total incidence in the BED capture enzyme immunoassay and AxSYM avidity assay index algorithms were: 0.79 (95% CI: 0.60–0.98) and 0.34 (95% CI: −0.04 to 0.72), respectively. Incidence was higher among men. There was good agreement between the tests, with a kappa of 0.654 and a specificity of 95.8%. AxSYM avidity assay index may be helpful in improving the quality of the estimates of recent HIV infection and incidence, particularly when used in a combined algorithm with BED capture enzyme immunoassay.

Improved testing of recent HIV-1 infections with the BioRad avidity assay compared to the limiting antigen avidity assay and BED Capture enzyme immunoassay: evaluation using reference sample panels from the German Seroconverter Cohort

Background

The variety and limitations of current laboratory methods for estimating HIV-incidence has driven attempts to improve and standardize the performance of serological ‘Tests for Recent HIV-Infections’ (TRI). Primary and follow-up HIV-1 positive plasma samples from individuals with well-defined dates of infection collected as part of the German Seroconverter Cohort provided specimens highly suitable for use in comparing the performance of three TRIs: the AWARE™ BED™ EIA HIV-1 Incidence test (BED-CEIA), Genetic systems HIV-1/HIV-2 Plus O EIA antibody avidity-based assay (BioRad Avidity) and Sedia™ HIV-1 LAg Avidity EIA (LAg Avidity).

Methods

The evaluation panel included 180 specimens: 44 from antiretroviral (ARV)-naïve individuals with recently acquired HIV-infection (≤130 days; 25 B and 19 non-B subtypes) and 136 from long-term (>12 months) infected individuals [101 ARV-naïve subtype B, 16 non-B subtypes, 14 ARV-treated individuals, 5 slow progressors (SLP)].

Results

For long-term infected, ARV-naïve individuals the false recent rates (FRR) of both the BioRad and LAg Avidity assays were 2% (2/101 for subtype B) and 6% (1/16 for subtype ‘non-B’), while the FRR of the BED-CEIA was 7% (7/101 for subtype B) and 25% (4/16 for subtype ‘non-B’) (all p>0.05). Misclassification of ARV-treated individuals and SLP was rare by LAg (1/14, 0/5) and BioRad Avidity assays (2/14, 1/5) but more frequent by BED-CEIA (5/14, 3/5). Among recently-infected individuals (subtype B), 60% (15/25) were correctly classified by BED-CEIA, 88% (22/25) by BioRad Avidity and significantly fewer by LAg (48%, 12/25) compared to BioRad Avidity (p = 0.005) with a higher true-recency rate among non-B infections for all assays.

Conclusions

This study using well-characterized specimens demonstrated lower FRRs for both avidity methods than with the BED-CEIA. For recently infected individuals the BioRad Avidity assay was shown to give the most accurate results.

Development of a proficiency testing program for the HIV-1 BED incidence assay in China

The HIV-1 BED incidence assay was adopted in China in 2005 for HIV-1 incidence surveillance. A proficiency testing (PT) program was established in 2006 to provide quality assurance services. The BED PT program consisted of two components, an international program provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2006 and a domestic program started by the National HIV/HCV Reference Laboratory in 2011. Each PT panel consisted of eight coded specimens distributed to participating laboratories semi-annually, and testing results were collected and analyzed. The number of participating laboratories increased progressively from 2006 to 2012. The Chinese HIV-1 incidence laboratory network performed satisfactorily both in international and domestic PT programs. We also demonstrated that the BED assay was highly reproducible among participating laboratories. Our success and lessons learned can be readily replicated in other countries or regions contemplating the establishment of a PT program for assay-based HIV incidence estimation.

Incident HIV during pregnancy and postpartum and risk of mother-to-child HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Women may have persistent risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postpartum. Estimating risk of HIV during these periods is important to inform optimal prevention approaches. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate maternal HIV incidence during pregnancy/postpartum and to compare mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) risk among women with incident versus chronic infection.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We searched PubMed, Embase, and AIDS-related conference abstracts between January 1, 1980, and October 31, 2013, for articles and abstracts describing HIV acquisition during pregnancy/postpartum. The inclusion criterion was studies with data on recent HIV during pregnancy/postpartum. Random effects models were constructed to pool HIV incidence rates, cumulative HIV incidence, hazard ratios (HRs), or odds ratios (ORs) summarizing the association between pregnancy/postpartum status and HIV incidence, and MTCT risk and rates. Overall, 1,176 studies met the search criteria, of which 78 met the inclusion criterion, and 47 contributed data. Using data from 19 cohorts representing 22,803 total person-years, the pooled HIV incidence rate during pregnancy/postpartum was 3.8/100 person-years (95% CI 3.0-4.6): 4.7/100 person-years during pregnancy and 2.9/100 person-years postpartum (p = 0.18). Pooled cumulative HIV incidence was significantly higher in African than non-African countries (3.6% versus 0.3%, respectively; p<0.001). Risk of HIV was not significantly higher among pregnant (HR 1.3, 95% CI 0.5-2.1) or postpartum women (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6-1.6) than among non-pregnant/non-postpartum women in five studies with available data. In African cohorts, MTCT risk was significantly higher among women with incident versus chronic HIV infection in the postpartum period (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.2-3.9) or in pregnancy/postpartum periods combined (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.4). However, the small number of studies limited power to detect associations and sources of heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Pregnancy and the postpartum period are times of persistent HIV risk, at rates similar to "high risk" cohorts. MTCT risk was elevated among women with incident infections. Detection and prevention of incident HIV in pregnancy/postpartum should be prioritized, and is critical to decrease MTCT.

High percentage of recent HIV infection leading to onward transmission in Odessa, Ukraine associated with young adults

The proportion of new HIV diagnoses between May and December 2009 across Odessa recently-infected was estimated using the BED-CEIA assay. Logistic regression models were used to explore factors associated with testing as recent. Of 1,313 newly-diagnosed individuals, 321 (24 %) were classified as recent. Recent infection was less likely among older adults [odds ratio (OR) = 0.70 per 10-year increase, 95 % CI 0.60-0.82]. Compared to men residing in Odessa city, women in rural Odessa and non-resident men were more likely to be recently-infected (OR 1.85, 1.26-2.71 and 2.83, 1.15-6.97, respectively). Reason for test was not associated with recent infection. In sensitivity analysis, after excluding individuals tested due to clinical indications, the proportion recently-infected and the association with age remained virtually unchanged. Our findings suggest a high risk of onward transmission, particularly in younger age groups. These findings highlight the need for tailored prevention strategies and ongoing RITA testing to monitor and evaluate effectiveness of prevention programmes.

Short Communication: Defining optimality of a test for recent infection for HIV incidence surveillance

The estimation of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys using tests for recent infection has attracted much interest. It is increasingly recognized that the lack of high performance recent infection tests is hindering the implementation of this surveillance approach. With growing funding opportunities, test developers are currently trying to fill this gap. However, there is a lack of consensus and clear guidance for developers on the evaluation and optimization of candidate tests. A fundamental shift from conventional thinking about test performance is needed: away from metrics relevant in typical public health settings where the detection of a condition in individuals is of primary interest (sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values) and toward metrics that are appropriate when estimating a population-level parameter such as incidence (accuracy and precision). The inappropriate use of individual-level diagnostics performance measures could lead to spurious assessments and suboptimal designs of tests for incidence estimation. In some contexts, such as population-level application to HIV incidence, bias of estimates is essentially negligible, and all that remains is the maximization of precision. The maximization of the precision of incidence estimates provides a completely general criterion for test developers to assess and optimize test designs. Summarizing the test dynamics into the properties relevant for incidence estimation, high precision estimates are obtained when (1) the mean duration of recent infection is large, and (2) the false-recent rate is small. The optimal trade-off between these two test properties will produce the highest precision, and therefore the most epidemiologically useful incidence estimates.

Evaluation of the false recent classification rates of multiassay algorithms in estimating HIV type 1 subtype C incidence

Laboratory cross-sectional assays are useful for the estimation of HIV incidence, but are known to misclassify individuals with long-standing infection as recently infected. The false recent rate (FRR) varies widely across geographic areas; therefore, accurate estimates of HIV incidence require a locally defined FRR. We determined FRR for Botswana, where HIV-1 subtype C infection is predominant, using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED), a Bio-Rad Avidity Index (BAI) assay (a modification of the Bio-Rad HIV1/2+O EIA), and two multiassay algorithms (MAA) that included clinical data. To estimate FRR, stored blood samples from 512 antiretroviral (ARV)-naive HIV-1 subtype C-infected individuals from a prospective cohort in Botswana were tested at 18-24 months postenrollment. The following FRR mean (95% CI) values were obtained: BED 6.05% (4.15-8.48), BAI 5.57% (3.70-8.0), BED-BAI 2.25% (1.13-4.0), and a combination of BED-BAI with CD4 (>200) and viral load (>400) threshold 1.43% (0.58-2.93). The interassay agreement between BED and BAI was 92.8% (95% CI, 90.1-94.5) for recent/long-term classification. Misclassification was associated with viral suppression for BED [adjusted OR (aOR) 10.31; p=0.008], BAI [aOR 9.72; p=0.019], and MAA1 [aOR 16.6; p=0.006]. Employing MAA can reduce FRR to <2%. A local FRR can improve cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates.

Estimated incidence and genotypes of HIV-1 among pregnant women in central Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of HIV-1 infection among pregnant women from central-western Brazil.

DESIGN

Observational cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A total of 54,139 pregnant women received antenatal HIV screening from a network of public healthcare centers in 2011. The incidence of confirmed HIV-1 infection was estimated using the Serological Testing Algorithms for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS) methodology and BED-capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA). The yearly incidence was calculated, and adjusted incidence rates were estimated. For a subgroup of patients, protease and partial reverse transcriptase regions were retrotranscribed from plasma HIV-1 RNA and sequenced after performing a nested polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Of the participants, 20% had a pregnancy before the age of 18 and approximately 40% were experiencing their first pregnancy. Of the 54,139 pregnant women screened, 86 had a confirmed HIV-1 diagnosis, yielding an overall prevalence of 1.59 cases per 1000 women (95% CI 1.27-1.96). A higher prevalence was detected in the older age groups, reflecting cumulative exposure to the virus over time. Among the infected pregnant women, 20% were considered recently infected according to the BED-CEIA. The estimated incidence of HIV infection was 0.61 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.33-0.89); the corrected incidence was 0.47 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.26-0.68). In a subgroup of patients, HIV-1 subtype C (16.7%) was the second most prevalent form after subtype B (66.7%); BF1 recombinants (11.1%) and one case of subtype F1 (5.5%) were also detected.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the potential for deriving incidence estimates from a large antenatal screening program for HIV. The rate of recent HIV-1 infection among women in their early reproductive years is a public health warning to implement preventive measures.

Short communication: effect of short-course antenatal zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine on the BED capture enzyme immunoassay levels in HIV type 1 subtype C infection

Cross-sectional prevalence studies based on immunoassays that discriminate between recent and long-term infections, such as the BED assay, have been widely used to estimate HIV incidence. However, individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy tend to have lower BED levels and are associated with a higher risk for being mistakenly classified as recent infections. To assess the effect of short-term antenatal zidovudine (ZDV) and single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) on the BED levels in HIV-1C infection, we measured longitudinal BED normalized optical density (OD-n) levels using stored plasma samples collected prenatally and postnatally from 159 pregnant HIV-infected women in Botswana who participated in the randomized clinical Mother-to-Child-Prevention study, the Mashi study. All women received ZDV from 34 weeks gestation through delivery and were randomized to receive either sdNVP or placebo during labor. Among 159 subjects, the OD-n levels decreased from baseline to delivery in 93 subjects (p=0.039), suggesting that short-course ZDV may decrease OD-n levels. sdNVP at delivery did not affect longitudinal BED OD-n levels postdelivery. However, sdNVP appeared to modify the association between CD4 count at delivery and OD-n levels postdelivery. When estimating HIV incidence with the BED assay, special care may be required regarding women who received short-term ZDV for prevention of mother-to-child transmission.

Towards estimation of HIV-1 date of infection: a time-continuous IgG-model shows that seroconversion does not occur at the midpoint between negative and positive tests

Estimating date of infection for HIV-1-infected patients is vital for disease tracking and informed public health decisions, but is difficult to obtain because most patients have an established infection of unknown duration at diagnosis. Previous studies have used HIV-1-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels as measured by the IgG capture BED enzyme immunoassay (BED assay) to indicate if a patient was infected recently, but a time-continuous model has not been available. Therefore, we developed a logistic model of IgG production over time. We used previously published metadata from 792 patients for whom the HIV-1-specific IgG levels had been longitudinally measured using the BED assay. To account for patient variability, we used mixed effects modeling to estimate general population parameters. The typical patient IgG production rate was estimated at r = 6.72[approximate 95% CI 6.17,7.33]×10⁻³ OD-n units day⁻¹, and the carrying capacity at K = 1.84[1.75,1.95] OD-n units, predicting how recently patients seroconverted in the interval ^∧t = (31,711) days. Final model selection and validation was performed on new BED data from a population of 819 Swedish HIV-1 patients diagnosed in 2002–2010. On an appropriate subset of 350 patients, the best model parameterization had an accuracy of 94% finding a realistic seroconversion date. We found that seroconversion on average is at the midpoint between last negative and first positive HIV-1 test for patients diagnosed in prospective/cohort studies such as those included in the training dataset. In contrast, seroconversion is strongly skewed towards the first positive sample for patients identified by regular public health diagnostic testing as illustrated in the validation dataset. Our model opens the door to more accurate estimates of date of infection for HIV-1 patients, which may facilitate a better understanding of HIV-1 epidemiology on a population level and individualized prevention, such as guidance during contact tracing.

Recent HIV infection rates among HIV positive patients seeking voluntary counseling and testing centers in the metropolitan region of Recife - PE, Brazil

The BED capture enzyme immunoassay test makes it possible to determine whether individuals were recently infected with HIV.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, the overall HIV and recent infections prevalences were determined at five Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) centers, in the Metropolitan Region of Recife, Northeastern of Brazil.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted among users of five VCTs in the metropolitan region of Recife between July 2007 and April 2009. Out of the individuals who tested positive for HIV, 169 were analyzed to assess the prevalence of recent infection by means of the BED-CEIA (BED-Calypte®).

RESULTS

Out of 46,696 individuals tested 916 (1.96%) turned out positive for HIV infection The highest prevalence was in Recife (3.9%). The prevalence was higher among males (3.93%), and men who have sex with men (MSM) (12.4%). The frequency of recent infections among the 169 subjects evaluated was 23.7%. Recent infections were more common among individuals under 25 years of age. There was slight predominance of men and higher frequency of heterosexuals in both groups, but still a significant portion of MSM (33%). Subtype B predominated, followed by a high proportion of subtype F.

CONCLUSIONS

Recent infection occurs mainly among young individuals and heterosexuals, despite a significant proportion of recent infection among MSM. These results suggest that preventive actions aimed at the MSM community remains a challenge and efforts focusing this group should continue to be a priority.

Drug use and sex work: competing risk factors for newly acquired HIV in Yunnan, China

Objective

To investigate the HIV incidence and its related factors among female sex workers (FSWs) in a high prevalence area where injection drug use is also widely documented.

Method

A cross-sectional study of 1642 female sex workers (FSWs) was conducted in Honghe Prefecture of Yunnan Province. Interviewed-questionnaires were administrated to collect information on sexual partnerships, condom use and illicit drug using behaviors etc. Blood samples were collected to test for HIV antibodies, and all HIV seropositive specimens were tested with the BED IgG capture-based enzyme immunosorbent assay (BED-CEIA) to distinguish between new and established HIV infection (<153 days).

Results

15.9% (261/1642) of participants reported ever having used drugs, and 7.4% had injected in recent 3 months. The overall HIV prevalence was 10.2% (168/1642), among which 16.7% (28/168) were identified as recent infections using BED-CEIA. The crude HIV incidence estimated from BED-CEIA results was 4.4 (95%CI 2.8–6.0) /100 person years (PY). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that an illicit drug using history (by either self-reporting or urine opiates testing) was both significant risk factors both for HIV established and recent infection (each p<0.05). Drug using FSWs (DU-FSW) reported more male clients in the previous week, and had significantly higher prevalence of HIV, chlamydia trachomatis and HSV-2 as compared to non DU-FSW (each p<0.05).

Conclusion

Our results show that a history of drug use poses significant risks for both new and established HIV infection among FSWs, and that HIV-incidence among Honghe FSWs is relatively high compared to similar populations. Comprehensive interventions targeted at DU-FSWs' injection drug using and high risk sexual behaviors are urgently needed to reduce the rapid spread of HIV epidemic.

HIV prevalence and incidence among women at higher risk of infection in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

This study aimed to estimate HIV incidence among women at higher HIV risk in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia using cross-sectional data. To refine the estimate, we sought to determine a local correction factor by estimating a false recent rate for the BED assay. The overall study had two parallel phases: cross-sectional incidence and BED false recent (BED FR). A total of 1856 women at higher HIV risk were enrolled into the cross-sectional phase. For the BED FR, 500 women and 70 men with known HIV infection of greater than 12 months were enrolled. Rapid HIV tests were used to assess participant HIV status. Samples from women with positive results on HIV rapid testing were then analyzed using the BED assay to determine incident HIV infections. The overall HIV prevalence was 11.3%, with women greater than 25 years old having a higher prevalence (26.5% vs. 7.9% for younger women). The overall unadjusted HIV incidence was 3.3%. The estimated HIV incidence was 2.6% when adjusted using the locally derived false recent rate of 3.5%. Similar incidence rates were found between the younger and older age groups. This is one of the first field-based studies of HIV incidence in Ethiopia; it demonstrates that there is sufficient incidence to warrant further HIV prevention efforts among women at higher risk of HIV infection.

Estimation of HIV incidence using multiple biomarkers

The incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the rate at which new HIV infections occur in populations. The development of accurate, practical, and cost-effective approaches to estimation of HIV incidence is a priority among researchers in HIV surveillance because of limitations with existing methods. In this paper, we develop methods for estimating HIV incidence rates using multiple biomarkers in biological samples collected from a cross-sectional survey. An advantage of the method is that it does not require longitudinal follow-up of individuals. We use assays for BED, avidity, viral load, and CD4 cell count data from clade B samples collected in several US epidemiologic cohorts between 1987 and 2010. Considering issues of accuracy, cost, and implementation, we identify optimal multiassay algorithms for estimating incidence. We find that the multiple-biomarker approach to cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation corrects the significant deficiencies of currently available approaches and is a potentially powerful and practical tool for HIV surveillance.

Development of a novel rapid HIV test for simultaneous detection of recent or long-term HIV type 1 infection using a single testing device

Laboratory assays for the detection of recent HIV infection for HIV incidence surveillance are essential to HIV prevention efforts worldwide because they can identify populations with a high incidence and allow targeting of resources and monitoring of incidence trends over time. This study describes the development of a novel rapid HIV-1 incidence-prevalence (I-P) test that can be used for the simultaneous detection and discrimination of prevalent (long-term) or incident (recent) HIV infections using a single device. A lateral flow assay was developed that uses a multisubtype recombinant gp41 protein applied at two concentrations of antigen (high and low). Prevalent and incident HIV-1 infections can be distinguished based on differential antibody binding at the two antigen concentrations. High level/high avidity antibodies present in prevalent infections bind to and are detected at both antigen concentrations while low level/low avidity antibodies present in recent HIV infections are detected only at the higher antigen concentration line. A total of 205 HIV-positive specimens with known status (recent=105, long-term=100), including 57 specimens from seroconversion panels, were tested by the rapid I-P assay and the results were compared to the HIV-1 BED capture enzyme immunoassay (CEIA). There was a 95.1% agreement of final classification (recent or long-term) with the BED assay (kappa=0.910) (mean recency period=162 days) and a high correlation between the intensity score of the low antigen line with the BED OD-n (Pearson correlation=0.89). The new rapid I-P test has great potential to simplify HIV surveillance efforts by simultaneously providing information on both HIV prevalence and incidence using a single, rapid test device.

How should we best estimate the mean recency duration for the BED method?

BED estimates of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys are obtained by restricting, to fixed time T, the period over which incidence is estimated. The appropriate mean recency duration () then refers to the time where BED optical density (OD) is less than a pre-set cut-off C, given the patient has been HIV positive for at most time T. Five methods, tested using data for postpartum women in Zimbabwe, provided similar estimates of for C = 0.8: i) The ratio (r/s) of the number of BED-recent infections to all seroconversions over T = 365 days: 192 days [95% CI 168–216]. ii) Linear mixed modeling (LMM): 191 days [95% CI 174–208]. iii) Non-linear mixed modeling (NLMM): 196 days [95% CrI 188–204]. iv) Survival analysis (SA): 192 days [95% CI 168–216]. Graphical analysis: 193 days. NLMM estimates of - based on a biologically more appropriate functional relationship than LMM – resulted in best fits to OD data, the smallest variance in estimates of , and best correspondence between BED and follow-up estimates of HIV incidence, for the same subjects over the same time period. SA and NLMM produced very similar estimates of but the coefficient of variation of the former was >3 times as high. The r/s method requires uniformly distributed seroconversion events but is useful if data are available only from a single follow-up. The graphical method produces the most variable results, involves unsound methodology and should not be used to provide estimates of . False-recent rates increased as a quadratic function of C: for incidence estimation C should thus be chosen as small as possible, consistent with an adequate resultant number of recent cases, and accurate estimation of . Inaccuracies in the estimation of should not now provide an impediment to incidence estimation.

HIV incidence determination in the United States: a multiassay approach

BACKGROUND

Accurate testing algorithms are needed for estimating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence from cross-sectional surveys.

METHODS

We developed a multiassay algorithm (MAA) for HIV incidence that includes the BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA), an antibody avidity assay, HIV load, and CD4(+) T-cell count. We analyzed 1782 samples from 709 individuals in the United States who had a known duration of HIV infection (range, 0 to >8 years). Logistic regression with cubic splines was used to compare the performance of the MAA to the BED-CEIA and to determine the window period of the MAA. We compared the annual incidence estimated with the MAA to the annual incidence based on HIV seroconversion in a longitudinal cohort.

RESULTS

The MAA had a window period of 141 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 94-150) and a very low false-recent misclassification rate (only 0.4% of 1474 samples from subjects infected for >1 year were misclassified as indicative of recent infection). In a cohort study, annual incidence based on HIV seroconversion was 1.04% (95% CI, .70%-1.55%). The incidence estimate obtained using the MAA was essentially identical: 0.97% (95% CI, .51%-1.71%).

CONCLUSIONS

The MAA is as sensitive for detecting recent HIV infection as the BED-CEIA and has a very low rate of false-recent misclassification. It provides a powerful tool for cross-sectional HIV incidence determination.

Surveillance of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces, South Africa, 2005-2009

Surveillance of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) was conducted among pregnant women in South Africa over a 5-year period after the initiation of a large national antiretroviral treatment program. Analysis of TDR data from 9 surveys conducted between 2005 and 2009 in 2 provinces of South Africa suggests that while TDR remains low (<5%) in Gauteng Province, it may be increasing in KwaZulu-Natal, with the most recent survey showing moderate (5%-15%) levels of resistance to the nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor drug class.

Lower-sensitivity and avidity modifications of the vitros anti-HIV 1+2 assay for detection of recent HIV infections and incidence estimation

Recent-infection testing assays/algorithms (RITAs) have been developed to exploit the titer and avidity of HIV antibody evolution following seroconversion for incidence estimation. The Vitros Anti-HIV 1+2 assay (Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics) was approved by the FDA to detect HIV-1 and HIV-2 infections. We developed a less-sensitive (LS) and an avidity-modified version of this assay to detect recent HIV infection. Seroconversion panels (80 subjects, 416 samples) were tested to calculate the mean duration of recent infection (MDR) for these assays. A panel from known long-term (2+ years) HIV-infected subjects on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) (n = 134) and subjects with low CD4 counts (AIDS patients [n = 140]) was used to measure the false-recent rate (FRR) of the assays. Using a signal-to-cutoff ratio of 20 and the LS-Vitros assay gave a RITA MDR of 215 days (95% confidence interval [95% CI], ± 65 days) and using an avidity index (AI) of 0.6 gave an MDR of 170 days (± 44 days), while a combination of the two assays yielded a MDR of 146 days (± 38.6) and an FRR of 8%. Misclassifying subjects with known long-term infection as recently infected occurred in 14% of AIDS patients and 29% (95% CI, 22, 38) of HAART subjects and 3% (95% CI, 0.8, 7.2) and 42% (95% CI, 33, 51), respectively, for the LS- and avidity-modified Vitros assays, with a misclassification rate of 15% (95% CI, 11, 20) overall using a dual-assay algorithm. Both modified Vitros assays can be used to estimate the length of time since seroconversion and in calculations for HIV incidence. Like other RITAs, they are subject to high FRR in subjects on HAART or with AIDS.

A general HIV incidence inference scheme based on likelihood of individual level data and a population renewal equation

We derive a new method to estimate the age specific incidence of an infection with a differential mortality, using individual level infection status data from successive surveys. The method consists of a) an SI-type model to express the incidence rate in terms of the prevalence and its derivatives as well as the difference in mortality rate, and b) a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the prevalence and its derivatives. Estimates can in principle be obtained for any chosen age and time, and no particular assumptions are made about the epidemiological or demographic context. This is in contrast with earlier methods for estimating incidence from prevalence data, which work with aggregated data, and the aggregated effect of demographic and epidemiological rates over the time interval between prevalence surveys. Numerical simulation of HIV epidemics, under the presumption of known excess mortality due to infection, shows improved control of bias and variance, compared to previous methods. Our analysis motivates for a) effort to be applied to obtain accurate estimates of excess mortality rates as a function of age and time among HIV infected individuals and b) use of individual level rather than aggregated data in order to estimate HIV incidence rates at times between two prevalence surveys.

Risk Factor Detection as a Metric of STARHS Performance for HIV Incidence Surveillance Among Female Sex Workers in Kigali, Rwanda

Background:

The epidemiologic utility of STARHS hinges not only on producing accurate estimates of HIV incidence, but also on identifying risk factors for recent HIV infection.

Methods:

As part of an HIV seroincidence study, 800 Rwandan female sex workers (FSW) were HIV tested, with those testing positive further tested by BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays. A sample of HIV-negative (N=397) FSW were followed prospectively for HIV seroconversion. We compared estimates of risk factors for: 1) prevalent HIV infection; 2) recently acquired HIV infection (RI) based on three different STARHS classifications (BED alone, Ax-AI alone, BED/Ax-AI combined); and 3) prospectively observed seroconversion.

Results:

There was mixed agreement in risk factors between methods. HSV-2 coinfection and recent STI treatment were associated with both prevalent HIV infection and all three measures of recent infection. A number of risk factors were associated only with prevalent infection, including widowhood, history of forced sex, regular alcohol consumption, prior imprisonment, and current breastfeeding. Number of sex partners in the last 3 months was associated with recent infection based on BED/Ax-AI combined, but not other STARHS-based recent infection outcomes or prevalent infection. Risk factor estimates for prospectively observed seroconversion differed in magnitude and direction from those for recent infection via STARHS.

Conclusions:

Differences in risk factor estimates by each method could reflect true differences in risk factors between the prevalent, recently, or newly infected populations, the effect of study interventions (among those followed prospectively), or assay misclassification. Similar investigations in other populations/settings are needed to further establish the epidemiologic utility of STARHS for identifying risk factors, in addition to incidence rate estimation.

A new general biomarker-based incidence estimator

BACKGROUND

Estimating disease incidence from cross-sectional surveys, using biomarkers for "recent" infection, has attracted much interest. Despite widespread applications to HIV, there is currently no consensus on the correct handling of biomarker results classifying persons as "recently" infected long after the infections occurred.

METHODS

We derive a general expression for a weighted average of recent incidence that-unlike previous estimators-requires no particular assumption about recent infection biomarker dynamics or about the demographic and epidemiologic context. This is possible through the introduction of an explicit timescale T that truncates the period of averaging implied by the estimator.

RESULTS

The recent infection test dynamics can be summarized into 2 parameters, similar to those appearing in previous estimators: a mean duration of recent infection and a false-recent rate. We identify a number of dimensionless parameters that capture the bias that arises from working with tractable forms of the resulting estimator and elucidate the utility of the incidence estimator in terms of the performance of the recency test and the population state. Estimation of test characteristics and incidence is demonstrated using simulated data. The observed confidence interval coverage of the test characteristics and incidence is within 1% of intended coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Biomarker-based incidence estimation can be consistently adapted to a general context without the strong assumptions of previous work about biomarker dynamics and epidemiologic and demographic history.

Controlling HIV epidemics among injection drug users: eight years of Cross-Border HIV prevention interventions in Vietnam and China

INTRODUCTION

HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002-2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China.

METHODS

Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples.

RESULTS

We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36-48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months.

DISCUSSION

This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication.