Longitudinal Phylogenetic Surveillance Identifies Distinct Patterns of Cluster Dynamics

A validated in-house assay for HIV drug resistance mutation surveillance from dried blood spot specimens

Despite increasing scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, challenges related to adherence and HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) remain. The high cost of HIVDR surveillance is a persistent challenge with implementation in resource-constrained settings. Dried blood spot (DBS) specimens have been demonstrated to be a feasible alternative to plasma or serum for HIVDR genotyping and are more suitable for lower resource settings. There is a need for affordable HIVDR genotyping assays which can amplify HIV-1 sequences from DBS specimens, particularly those with low viral loads, at a low cost. Here, we present an in-house assay capable of reliably amplifying HIV-1 protease and partial reverse transcriptase genes from DBS specimens, which covers the complete World Health Organization 2009 list of drug resistance mutations under surveillance. DBS specimens were prepared using whole blood spiked with HIV-1 at concentrations of 10,000, 5000, 1000, and 500 copies/mL (n=30 for each concentration). Specimens were tested in triplicate. A two-step approach was used consisting of cDNA synthesis followed by nested PCR. The limit of detection of the assay was calculated to be approximately 5000 (95% CI: 3200-10,700) copies/mL for the protease gene and 3600 (95% CI: 2200-10,000) copies/mL for reverse transcriptase. The assay was observed to be most sensitive with higher viral load specimens (97.8% [95% CI: 92.2-99.7]) for both protease and reverse transcriptase at 10,000 copies/mL with performance decreasing with the use of specimens with lower viral loads (46.7% [36.1-57.5] and 60.0% [49.1-70.2] at 500 copies/mL for protease and reverse transcriptase, respectively). Ultimately, this assay presents a promising opportunity for use in resource-constrained settings. Future work should involve validation under field conditions including sub-optimal storage conditions and preparation of DBS with fingerprick blood in order to accurately reflect real-world collection scenarios.

Molecular epidemiology to aid virtual elimination of HIV transmission in Australia

The Global UNAIDS 95/95/95 targets aim to increase the percentage of persons who know their HIV status, receive antiretroviral therapy, and have achieved viral suppression. Achieving these targets requires efforts to improve the public health response to increase access to care for those living with HIV, identify those yet undiagnosed with HIV early, and increase access to prevention for those most at risk of HIV acquisition. HIV infections in Australia are among the lowest globally having recorded significant declines in new diagnoses in the last decade. However, the HIV epidemic has changed with an increasing proportion of newly diagnosed infections among those born outside Australia observed in the last five years. Thus, the current prevention efforts are not enough to achieve the UNAIDS targets and virtual elimination across all population groups. We believe both are possible by including molecular epidemiology in the public health response. Molecular epidemiology methods have been crucial in the field of HIV prevention, particularly in demonstrating the efficacy of treatment as prevention. Cluster detection using molecular epidemiology can provide opportunities for the real-time detection of new outbreaks before they grow, and cluster detection programs are now part of the public health response in the USA and Canada. Here, we review what molecular epidemiology has taught us about HIV evolution and spread. We summarize how we can use this knowledge to improve public health measures by presenting case studies from the USA and Canada. We discuss the successes and challenges of current public health programs in Australia, and how we could use cluster detection as an add-on to identify gaps in current prevention measures easier and respond quicker to growing clusters. Lastly, we raise important ethical and legal challenges that need to be addressed when HIV genotypic data is used in combination with personal data.

Epidemiological and viral characteristics of undiagnosed HIV infections in Botswana

Background

HIV-1 is endemic in Botswana. The country’s primary challenge is identifying people living with HIV who are unaware of their status. We evaluated factors associated with undiagnosed HIV infection using HIV-1 phylogenetic, behavioural, and demographic data.

Methods

As part of the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 20% of households in 30 villages were tested for HIV and followed from 2013 to 2018. A total of 12,610 participants were enrolled, 3596 tested HIV-positive at enrolment, and 147 participants acquired HIV during the trial. Extensive socio-demographic and behavioural data were collected from participants and next-generation sequences were generated for HIV-positive cases. We compared three groups of participants: (1) those previously known to be HIV-positive at enrolment (n = 2995); (2) those newly diagnosed at enrolment (n = 601) and (3) those who tested HIV-negative at enrolment but tested HIV-positive during follow-up (n = 147). We searched for differences in demographic and behavioural factors between known and newly diagnosed group using logistic regression. We also compared the topology of each group in HIV-1 phylogenies and used a genetic diversity-based algorithm to classify infections as recent (< 1 year) or chronic (≥ 1 year).

Results

Being male (aOR = 2.23) and younger than 35 years old (aOR = 8.08) was associated with undiagnosed HIV infection (p < 0.001), as was inconsistent condom use (aOR = 1.76). Women were more likely to have undiagnosed infections if they were married, educated, and tested frequently. For men, being divorced increased their risk. The genetic diversity-based algorithm classified most incident infections as recent (75.0%), but almost none of known infections (2.0%). The estimated proportion of recent infections among new diagnoses was 37.0% (p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our results indicate that those with undiagnosed infections are likely to be young men and women who do not use condoms consistently. Among women, several factors were predictive: being married, educated, and testing frequently increased risk. Men at risk were more difficult to delineate. A sizeable proportion of undiagnosed infections were recent based on a genetic diversity-based classifier. In the era of “test and treat all”, pre-exposure prophylaxis may be prioritized towards individuals who self-identify or who can be identified using these predictors in order to halt onward transmission in time.

Phylogenetic prioritization of HIV-1 transmission clusters with viral lineage-level diversification rates

Background and objectives

Public health officials faced with a large number of transmission clusters require a rapid, scalable and unbiased way to prioritize distribution of limited resources to maximize benefits. We hypothesize that transmission cluster prioritization based on phylogenetically derived lineage-level diversification rates will perform as well as or better than commonly used growth-based prioritization measures, without need for historical data or subjective interpretation.

Methodology

9822 HIV pol sequences collected during routine drug resistance genotyping were used alongside simulated sequence data to infer sets of phylogenetic transmission clusters via patristic distance threshold. Prioritized clusters inferred from empirical data were compared to those prioritized by the current public health protocols. Prioritization of simulated clusters was evaluated based on correlation of a given prioritization measure with future cluster growth, as well as the number of direct downstream transmissions from cluster members.

Results

Empirical data suggest diversification rate-based measures perform comparably to growth-based measures in recreating public heath prioritization choices. However, unbiased simulated data reveals phylogenetic diversification rate-based measures perform better in predicting future cluster growth relative to growth-based measures, particularly long-term growth. Diversification rate-based measures also display advantages over growth-based measures in highlighting groups with greater future transmission events compared to random groups of the same size. Furthermore, diversification rate measures were notably more robust to effects of decreased sampling proportion.

Conclusions and implications

Our findings indicate diversification rate-based measures frequently outperform growth-based measures in predicting future cluster growth and offer several additional advantages beneficial to optimizing the public health prioritization process.

HIV genetic diversity informs stage of HIV-1 infection among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Botswana

Background

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 genetic diversity increases during infection and can help infer the time elapsed since infection. However, the effect of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on the inference remains unknown.

Methods

Participants with estimated duration of HIV-1 infection based on repeated testing were sourced from cohorts in Botswana (n = 1944). Full-length HIV genome sequencing was performed from proviral deoxyribonucleic acid. We optimized a machine learning model to classify infections as < or >1 year based on viral genetic diversity, demographic, and clinical data.

Results

The best predictive model included variables for genetic diversity of HIV-1 gag, pol, and env, viral load, age, sex, and ART status. Most participants were on ART. Balanced accuracy was 90.6% (95% confidence interval, 86.7%–94.1%). We tested the algorithm among newly diagnosed participants with or without documented negative HIV tests. Among those without records, those who self-reported a negative HIV test within <1 year were more frequently classified as recent than those who reported a test >1 year previously. There was no difference in classification between those self-reporting a negative HIV test <1 year, whether or not they had a record.

Conclusions

These results indicate that recency of HIV-1 infection can be inferred from viral sequence diversity even among patients on suppressive ART.

Methodological synthesis of Bayesian phylodynamics, HIV-TRACE, and GEE: HIV-1 transmission epidemiology in a racially/ethnically diverse Southern U.S. context

This study introduces an innovative methodological approach to identify potential drivers of structuring HIV-1 transmission clustering patterns between different subpopulations in the culturally and racially/ethnically diverse context of Houston, TX, the largest city in the Southern United States. Using 6332 HIV-1 pol sequences from persons newly diagnosed with HIV during the period 2010–2018, we reconstructed HIV-1 transmission clusters, using the HIV-TRAnsmission Cluster Engine (HIV-TRACE); inferred demographic and risk parameters on HIV-1 transmission dynamics by jointly estimating viral transmission rates across racial/ethnic, age, and transmission risk groups; and modeled the degree of network connectivity by using generalized estimating equations (GEE). Our results indicate that Hispanics/Latinos are most vulnerable to the structure of transmission clusters and serve as a bridge population, acting as recipients of transmissions from Whites (3.0 state changes/year) and from Blacks (2.6 state changes/year) as well as sources of transmissions to Whites (1.8 state changes/year) and to Blacks (1.2 state changes/year). There were high rates of transmission and high network connectivity between younger and older Hispanics/Latinos as well as between younger and older Blacks. Prevention and intervention efforts are needed for transmission clusters that involve younger racial/ethnic minorities, in particular Hispanic/Latino youth, to reduce onward transmission of HIV in Houston.

Persistence of HIV transmission clusters among people who inject drugs

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the duration of HIV transmission clusters.

DESIGN

Fifty-four individuals newly infected at enrollment in the ALIVE cohort were included, all of whom had sequences at an intake visit (T1) and from a second (T2) and/or a third (T3) follow-up visit, median 2.9 and 5.4 years later, respectively.

METHODS

Sequences were generated using the 454 DNA sequencing platform for portions of HIV pol and env (HXB2 positions 2717-3230; 7941-8264). Genetic distances were calculated using tn93 and sequences were clustered over a range of thresholds (1--5%) using HIV-TRACE. Analyses were performed separately for individuals with pol sequences for T1 + T2 (n = 40, 'Set 1') and T1 + T3 (n = 25; 'Set 2'), and env sequences for T1 + T2 (n = 47, 'Set 1'), and T1 + T3 (n = 30; 'Set 2').

RESULTS

For pol, with one exception, a single cluster contained more than 75% of samples at all thresholds, and cluster composition was at least 90% concordant between time points/thresholds. For env, two major clusters (A and B) were observed at T1 and T2/T3, although cluster composition concordance between time points/thresholds was low (<60%) at lower thresholds for both sets 1 and 2. In addition, several individuals were included in clusters at T2/T3, although not at T1.

CONCLUSION

Caution should be used in applying a single threshold in population studies where seroconversion dates are unknown. However, the retention of some clusters even after 5 + years is evidence for the robustness of the clustering approach in general.

Prediction of HIV Transmission Cluster Growth With Statewide Surveillance Data

BACKGROUND

Prediction of HIV transmission cluster growth may help guide public health action. We developed a predictive model for cluster growth in North Carolina (NC) using routine HIV surveillance data.

METHODS

We identified putative transmission clusters with ≥2 members through pairwise genetic distances ≤1.5% from HIV-1 pol sequences sampled November 2010-December 2017 in NC. Clusters established by a baseline of January 2015 with any sequences sampled within 2 years before baseline were assessed for growth (new diagnoses) over 18 months. We developed a predictive model for cluster growth incorporating demographic, clinical, temporal, and contact tracing characteristics of baseline cluster members. We internally and temporally externally validated the final model in the periods January 2015-June 2016 and July 2016-December 2017.

RESULTS

Cluster growth was predicted by larger baseline cluster size, shorter time between diagnosis and HIV care entry, younger age, shorter time since the most recent HIV diagnosis, higher proportion with no named contacts, and higher proportion with HIV viremia. The model showed areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves of 0.82 and 0.83 in the internal and temporal external validation samples.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive model developed and validated here is a novel means of identifying HIV transmission clusters that may benefit from targeted HIV control resources.

Extensive host immune adaptation in a concentrated North American HIV epidemic

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text

Objective:

HIV incidence in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, where Indigenous persons make up 80% of those infected, are among the highest on the continent. Reports of accelerated HIV progression, associated with carriage of certain human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles (including the typically protective HLA-B∗51) have also emerged from the region. Given that acquisition of HIV preadapted to host HLA negatively impacts clinical outcome, we hypothesized that HIV-host adaptation may be elevated in Saskatchewan.

Design:

Comparative analysis of population-level HIV sequence datasets from Saskatchewan and elsewhere in Canada/USA.

Methods:

We analyzed 1144 HIV subtype B Pol sequences collected in Saskatchewan between 2000 and 2016, comprising ∼65% of cumulative provincial HIV cases, for the presence of 70 HLA-associated Pol mutations. Sequences from British Columbia (N = 6525) and elsewhere in Canada/USA (N = 6517) were used for comparison. HIV adaptation levels to 34 HLA alleles were also computed. Putative HIV transmission clusters were identified, and the prevalence of HLA-associated adaptations within and outside these clusters was investigated.

Results:

Analyses confirmed significantly elevated and temporally increasing levels of HIV adaptation to commonly expressed HLA alleles, in particular B∗51. Notably, HLA-adapted HIV strains were significantly enriched among phylogenetic clusters in Saskatchewan.

Conclusion:

Extensive circulating HIV adaptation to HLA in Saskatchewan provides a plausible explanation for accelerated progression, while enrichment of adapted variants in phylogenetic clusters suggests they are being widely transmitted. Results highlight the utility of Pol sequences, routinely collected for drug resistance monitoring, for surveillance of HIV-host adaptation, and underscore the urgent need to expand HIV prevention and treatment programmes in Saskatchewan.

Biased phylodynamic inferences from analysing clusters of viral sequences

Phylogenetic methods are being increasingly used to help understand the transmission dynamics of measurably evolving viruses, including HIV. Clusters of highly similar sequences are often observed, which appear to follow a ‘power law’ behaviour, with a small number of very large clusters. These clusters may help to identify subpopulations in an epidemic, and inform where intervention strategies should be implemented. However, clustering of samples does not necessarily imply the presence of a subpopulation with high transmission rates, as groups of closely related viruses can also occur due to non-epidemiological effects such as over-sampling. It is important to ensure that observed phylogenetic clustering reflects true heterogeneity in the transmitting population, and is not being driven by non-epidemiological effects. We qualify the effect of using a falsely identified ‘transmission cluster’ of sequences to estimate phylodynamic parameters including the effective population size and exponential growth rate under several demographic scenarios. Our simulation studies show that taking the maximum size cluster to re-estimate parameters from trees simulated under a randomly mixing, constant population size coalescent process systematically underestimates the overall effective population size. In addition, the transmission cluster wrongly resembles an exponential or logistic growth model 99% of the time. We also illustrate the consequences of false clusters in exponentially growing coalescent and birth-death trees, where again, the growth rate is skewed upwards. This has clear implications for identifying clusters in large viral databases, where a false cluster could result in wasted intervention resources.

The multi-faceted dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in Northern Alberta: A combined analysis of virus genetic and public health data

Molecular epidemiology has become a key tool for tracking infectious disease epidemics. Here, the spread of the most prevalent HIV-1 subtypes in Northern Alberta, Canada, was characterized with a Bayesian phylogenetic approach using 1146 HIV-1 pol sequences collected between 2007 and 2013 for routine clinical management purposes. Available patient metadata were qualitatively interpreted and correlated with onwards transmission using Fisher exact tests and logistic regression. Most infections were from subtypes A (n=36), B (n=815) and C (n=211). Africa is the dominant origin location for subtypes A and C while the subtype B epidemic was seeded from the USA and Middle America and, from the early 1990s onwards, mostly by interprovincial spread. Subtypes A (77.8%) and C (74.0%) were usually heterosexually transmitted and circulate predominantly among Blacks (61.1% and 85% respectively). Subtype B was mostly found among Caucasians (48.6%) and First Nations (36.8%), and its modes of transmission were stratified by ethnic origin. Compared to subtypes A (5.6%) and C (3.8-10.0%), a larger portion of subtype B patients were found within putative provincial transmission networks (20.3-29.5%), and this almost doubled when focusing on nationwide transmission clusters (37.9-57.5%). No clear association between cluster membership and particular patient characteristics was found. This study reveals complex and multi-faceted transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in this otherwise low HIV prevalence population in Northern Alberta, Canada. These findings can aid public health planning.

Phylodynamics on local sexual contact networks

Phylodynamic models are widely used in infectious disease epidemiology to infer the dynamics and structure of pathogen populations. However, these models generally assume that individual hosts contact one another at random, ignoring the fact that many pathogens spread through highly structured contact networks. We present a new framework for phylodynamics on local contact networks based on pairwise epidemiological models that track the status of pairs of nodes in the network rather than just individuals. Shifting our focus from individuals to pairs leads naturally to coalescent models that describe how lineages move through networks and the rate at which lineages coalesce. These pairwise coalescent models not only consider how network structure directly shapes pathogen phylogenies, but also how the relationship between phylogenies and contact networks changes depending on epidemic dynamics and the fraction of infected hosts sampled. By considering pathogen phylogenies in a probabilistic framework, these coalescent models can also be used to estimate the statistical properties of contact networks directly from phylogenies using likelihood-based inference. We use this framework to explore how much information phylogenies retain about the underlying structure of contact networks and to infer the structure of a sexual contact network underlying a large HIV-1 sub-epidemic in Switzerland.

Phylodynamic models relate the branching pattern of a pathogen’s phylogenetic tree to the tree-like growth of an epidemic as it spreads through a host population. Such models are increasingly used to learn about the epidemiology of different pathogens. We extend current models to consider the structure of host contact networks—the web of physical interactions through which pathogens spread. By considering how local interactions among hosts shape the phylogeny of a pathogen, our models offer a “pathogen’s eye view” of these networks. Our models also provide a statistical framework that can be used to infer network structure directly from phylogenies, which we use to estimate the properties of a sexual contact network in Switzerland from a HIV phylogeny.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 transmission in France (1999-2014) and impact of targeted prevention strategies

Background

Characterizing HIV-1 transmission networks can be important in understanding the evolutionary patterns and geospatial spread of the epidemic. We reconstructed the broad molecular epidemiology of HIV from individuals with primary HIV-1 infection (PHI) enrolled in France in the ANRS PRIMO C06 cohort over 15 years.

Results

Sociodemographic, geographic, clinical, biological and pol sequence data from 1356 patients were collected between 1999 and 2014. Network analysis was performed to infer genetic relationships, i.e. clusters of transmission, between HIV-1 sequences. Bayesian coalescent-based methods were used to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of identified clusters from different regions in France. We also evaluated the use of network information to target prevention efforts. Participants were mostly Caucasian (85.9%) and men (86.7%) who reported sex with men (MSM, 71.4%). Overall, 387 individuals (28.5%) were involved in clusters: 156 patients (11.5%) in 78 dyads and 231 participants (17%) in 42 larger clusters (median size: 4, range 3–41). Compared to individuals with single PHI (n = 969), those in clusters were more frequently men (95.9 vs 83%, p < 0.01), MSM (85.8 vs 65.6%, p < 0.01) and infected with CRF02_AG (20.4 vs 13.4%, p < 0.01). Reconstruction of viral migrations across time suggests that Paris area was the major hub of dissemination of both subtype B and CRF02_AG epidemics. By targeting clustering individuals belonging to the identified active transmission network before 2010, 60 of the 143 onward transmissions could have been prevented.

Conclusion

These analyses support the hypothesis of a recent and rapid rise of CRF02_AG within the French HIV-1 epidemic among MSM. Combined with a short turnaround time for sample processing, targeting prevention efforts based on phylogenetic monitoring may be an efficient way to deliver prevention interventions but would require near real time targeted interventions on the identified index cases and their partners.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12977-017-0339-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Coreceptor usage of Chinese HIV-1 and impact of X4/DM transmission clusters among recently infected men who have sex with men

To characterize the current frequency of HIV-1 coreceptor usage in China and assess the candidacy of CCR5 antagonists for treatment of HIV infections. In addition, we aimed to evaluate the potential of X4/DM virus transmission in recently infected men who have sex with men (MSM) individuals.Viral tropism testing was performed on samples from 399 MSM individuals and on 2408 available Chinese HIV-1 V3 sequences downloaded from the Los Alamos database using Geno2pheno and WebPSSM in combination. The transmission clusters were evaluated using pol sequences from 291 recently infected MSM with a maximum likelihood, maximum pairwise distance, and Bayesian inference.A higher prevalence of X4/DM viruses was observed in individuals infected with CRF01_AE strains than with subtype B (27.8% vs 12.2%, P < 0.001) and CRF07_BC/CRF08_BC/C (27.8% vs 1.0%, P < 0.001). Seven clusters containing only X4/DM viruses were detected in 40 transmission clusters. No significant difference in proportions between clustered X4/DM viruses and R5 viruses was found (P = 0.683).The high proportion of CXCR4 usage for CRF01_AE strains may result in the loss of susceptibility to maraviroc since CRF01_AE has become the most prevalent strains in China. The high prevalence of X4/DM viruses among recently CRF01_AE-infected individuals may be attributed to the stochasticity of HIV transmission, which implied that the early viral tropism screening and treatment would be the key for controlling the epidemic of CRF01_AE strains in China.

Strengthening HIV surveillance: measurements to track the epidemic in real time

Surveillance for HIV as a public health initiative requires timely, detailed and robust data to systematically understand burden of infection, transmission patterns, direct prevention efforts, guide funding, identify new infections and predict future trends in the epidemic. The methods for HIV surveillance have evolved to reliably track the epidemic and identify new infections in real time. Initially HIV surveillance relied primarily on the reporting of AIDS cases followed by measuring antibodies to HIV to determine prevalence in key populations. With the roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) resulting in better survival and the corresponding increase in HIV prevalence, the landscape of surveillance shifted further to track HIV prevalence and incidence within the context of programmes. Recent developments in laboratory assays that potentially measure and differentiate recent versus established HIV infection offer a cost-effective method for the rapid estimation of HIV incidence. These tests continue to be validated and are increasingly useful in informing the status of the epidemic in real time. Surveillance of heterogeneity of infections contributing to sub-epidemics requires methods to identify affected populations, density, key geographical locations and phylogenetically linked or clustered infections. Such methods could provide a nuanced understanding of the epidemic and prioritise prevention efforts to those most vulnerable. This paper brings together recent developments and challenges facing HIV surveillance, together with the application of newer assays and methods to fast-track the HIV prevention and treatment response.

Short-Term Dynamic and Local Epidemiological Trends in the South American HIV-1B Epidemic

The human displacement and sexual behavior are the main factors driving the HIV-1 pandemic to the current profile. The intrinsic structure of the HIV transmission among different individuals has valuable importance for the understanding of the epidemic and for the public health response. The aim of this study was to characterize the HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) epidemic in South America through the identification of transmission links and infer trends about geographical patterns and median time of transmission between individuals. Sequences of the protease and reverse transcriptase coding regions from 4,810 individuals were selected from GenBank. Maximum likelihood phylogenies were inferred and submitted to ClusterPicker to identify transmission links. Bayesian analyses were applied only for clusters including ≥5 dated samples in order to estimate the median maximum inter-transmission interval. This study analyzed sequences sampled from 12 South American countries, from individuals of different exposure categories, under different antiretroviral profiles, and from a wide period of time (1989–2013). Continentally, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela were revealed important sites for the spread of HIV-1B among countries inside South America. Of note, from all the clusters identified about 70% of the HIV-1B infections are primarily occurring among individuals living in the same geographic region. In addition, these transmissions seem to occur early after the infection of an individual, taking in average 2.39 years (95% CI 1.48–3.30) to succeed. Homosexual/Bisexual individuals transmit the virus as quickly as almost half time of that estimated for the general population sampled here. Public health services can be broadly benefitted from this kind of information whether to focus on specific programs of response to the epidemic whether as guiding of prevention campaigns to specific risk groups.

Near real-time monitoring of HIV transmission hotspots from routine HIV genotyping: an implementation case study

BACKGROUND

HIV evolves rapidly and therefore infections with similar genetic sequences are likely linked by recent transmission events. Clusters of related infections can represent subpopulations with high rates of transmission. We describe the implementation of an automated near real-time system to monitor and characterise HIV transmission hotspots in British Columbia, Canada.

METHODS

In this implementation case study, we applied a monitoring system to the British Columbia drug treatment database, which holds more than 32 000 anonymised HIV genotypes for nearly 9000 residents of British Columbia living with HIV. On average, five to six new HIV genotypes are deposited in the database every day, which triggers an automated reanalysis of the entire database. We extracted clusters of five or more individuals with short phylogenetic distances between their respective HIV sequences. The system generated monthly reports of the growth and characteristics of clusters that were distributed to public health officers.

FINDINGS

In June, 2014, the monitoring system detected the expansion of a cluster by 11 new cases during 3 months, including eight cases with transmitted drug resistance. This cluster generally comprised young men who have sex with men. The subsequent report precipitated an enhanced public health follow-up to ensure linkage to care and treatment initiation in the affected subpopulation. Of the nine cases associated with this follow-up, all had already been linked to care and five cases had started treatment. Subsequent to the follow-up, three additional cases started treatment and most cases achieved suppressed viral loads. During the next 12 months, we detected 12 new cases in this cluster with reduction in the onward transmission of drug resistance.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show the first application of an automated phylogenetic system monitoring a clinical database to detect a recent HIV outbreak and support the ensuing public health response. By making secondary use of routinely collected HIV genotypes, this approach is cost-effective, attains near real-time monitoring of new cases, and can be implemented in all settings in which HIV genotyping is the standard of care.

FUNDING

BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, the Genome Canada-CIHR Partnership in Genomics and Personalized Health, and the US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Phylogenetic Investigation of a Statewide HIV-1 Epidemic Reveals Ongoing and Active Transmission Networks Among Men Who Have Sex With Men

BACKGROUND

Molecular epidemiological evaluation of HIV-1 transmission networks can elucidate behavioral components of transmission that can be targets for intervention.

METHODS

We combined phylogenetic and statistical approaches using pol sequences from patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2011 at a large HIV center in Rhode Island, following 75% of the state's HIV population. Phylogenetic trees were constructed using maximum likelihood, and putative transmission clusters were evaluated using latent class analyses to determine association of cluster size with underlying demographic/behavioral characteristics. A logistic growth model was used to assess intracluster dynamics over time and predict "active" clusters that were more likely to harbor undiagnosed infections.

RESULTS

Of the 1166 HIV-1 subtype B sequences, 31% were distributed among 114 statistically supported, monophyletic clusters (range: 2-15 sequences/cluster). Sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) formed 52% of clusters. Latent class analyses demonstrated that sequences from recently diagnosed (2008-2011) MSM with primary HIV infection (PHI) and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) were more likely to form larger clusters (odds ratio: 1.62-11.25, P < 0.01). MSM in clusters were more likely to have anonymous partners and meet partners at sex clubs and pornographic stores. Four large clusters with 38 sequences (100% male, 89% MSM) had a high probability of harboring undiagnosed infections and included younger MSM with PHI and STIs.

CONCLUSIONS

In this first large-scale molecular epidemiological investigation of HIV-1 transmission in New England, sexual networks among recently diagnosed MSM with PHI and concomitant STIs contributed to the ongoing transmission. Characterization of transmission dynamics revealed actively growing clusters, which may be targets for intervention.

Transmission of Non-B HIV Subtypes in the United Kingdom Is Increasingly Driven by Large Non-Heterosexual Transmission Clusters

Background. The United Kingdom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic was historically dominated by HIV subtype B transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Now 50% of diagnoses and prevalent infections are among heterosexual individuals and mainly involve non-B subtypes. Between 2002 and 2010, the prevalence of non-B diagnoses among MSM increased from 5.4% to 17%, and this study focused on the drivers of this change.

Methods. Growth between 2007 and 2009 in transmission clusters among 14 000 subtype A1, C, D, and G sequences from the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database was analysed by risk group.

Results. Of 1148 clusters containing at least 2 sequences in 2007, >75% were pairs and >90% were heterosexual. Most clusters (71.4%) did not grow during the study period. Growth was significantly lower for small clusters and higher for clusters of ≥7 sequences, with the highest growth observed for clusters comprising sequences from MSM and people who inject drugs (PWID). Risk group (P < .0001), cluster size (P < .0001), and subtype (P < .01) were predictive of growth in a generalized linear model.

Discussion. Despite the increase in non-B subtypes associated with heterosexual transmission, MSM and PWID are at risk for non-B infections. Crossover of subtype C from heterosexuals to MSM has led to the expansion of this subtype within the United Kingdom.

The Gap Procedure: for the identification of phylogenetic clusters in HIV-1 sequence data

Background

In the context of infectious disease, sequence clustering can be used to provide important insights into the dynamics of transmission. Cluster analysis is usually performed using a phylogenetic approach whereby clusters are assigned on the basis of sufficiently small genetic distances and high bootstrap support (or posterior probabilities). The computational burden involved in this phylogenetic threshold approach is a major drawback, especially when a large number of sequences are being considered. In addition, this method requires a skilled user to specify the appropriate threshold values which may vary widely depending on the application.

Results

This paper presents the Gap Procedure, a distance-based clustering algorithm for the classification of DNA sequences sampled from individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). Our heuristic algorithm bypasses the need for phylogenetic reconstruction, thereby supporting the quick analysis of large genetic data sets. Moreover, this fully automated procedure relies on data-driven gaps in sorted pairwise distances to infer clusters, thus no user-specified threshold values are required. The clustering results obtained by the Gap Procedure on both real and simulated data, closely agree with those found using the threshold approach, while only requiring a fraction of the time to complete the analysis.

Conclusions

Apart from the dramatic gains in computational time, the Gap Procedure is highly effective in finding distinct groups of genetically similar sequences and obviates the need for subjective user-specified values. The clusters of genetically similar sequences returned by this procedure can be used to detect patterns in HIV-1 transmission and thereby aid in the prevention, treatment and containment of the disease.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12859-015-0791-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Combining the Estimated Date of HIV Infection with a Phylogenetic Cluster Study to Better Understand HIV Spread: Application in a Paris Neighbourhood

Objectives

To relate socio-demographic and virological information to phylogenetic clustering in HIV infected patients in a limited geographical area and to evaluate the role of recently infected individuals in the spread of HIV.

Methods

HIV-1 pol sequences from newly diagnosed and treatment-naive patients receiving follow-up between 2008 and 2011 by physicians belonging to a health network in Paris were used to build a phylogenetic tree using neighbour-joining analysis. Time since infection was estimated by immunoassay to define recently infected patients (very early infected presenters, VEP). Data on socio-demographic, clinical and biological features in clustered and non-clustered patients were compared. Chains of infection structure was also analysed.

Results

547 patients were included, 49 chains of infection containing 108 (20%) patients were identified by phylogenetic analysis. analysis. Eighty individuals formed pairs and 28 individuals were belonging to larger clusters. The median time between two successive HIV diagnoses in the same chain of infection was 248 days [CI = 176–320]. 34.7% of individuals were considered as VEP, and 27% of them were included in chains of infection. Multivariable analysis showed that belonging to a cluster was more frequent in VEP and those under 30 years old (OR: 3.65, 95 CI 1.49–8.95, p = 0.005 and OR: 2.42, 95% CI 1.05–5.85, p = 0.04 respectively). The prevalence of drug resistance was not associated with belonging to a pair or a cluster. Within chains, VEP were not grouped together more than chance predicted (p = 0.97).

Conclusions

Most newly diagnosed patients did not belong to a chain of infection, confirming the importance of undiagnosed or untreated HIV infected individuals in transmission. Furthermore, clusters involving both recently infected individuals and longstanding infected individuals support a substantial role in transmission of the latter before diagnosis.

Transmission clustering among newly diagnosed HIV patients in Chicago, 2008 to 2011: using phylogenetics to expand knowledge of regional HIV transmission patterns

INTRODUCTION

HIV transmission cluster analyses can inform HIV prevention efforts. We describe the first such assessment for transmission clustering among HIV patients in Chicago.

METHODS

We performed transmission cluster analyses using HIV pol sequences from newly diagnosed patients presenting to Chicago's largest HIV clinic between 2008 and 2011. We compared sequences through progressive pairwise alignment, using neighbor joining to construct an unrooted phylogenetic tree. We defined clusters as >2 sequences among which each sequence had at least 1 partner within a genetic distance of ≤1.5%. We used multivariable regression to examine factors associated with clustering and used geospatial analysis to assess geographic proximity of phylogenetically clustered patients.

RESULTS

We compared sequences from 920 patients, median age of 35 years, 75% male, 67% black, 23% Hispanic, and 8% had a rapid plasma reagin titer ≥1:16 concurrent with their HIV diagnosis. We had HIV transmission risk data for 54%; 43% identified as men who have sex with men (MSM). Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated 123 patients (13%) grouped into 26 clusters, the largest having 20 members. In multivariable regression, age <25, black race, MSM status, male gender, higher HIV viral load, and rapid plasma reagin ≥1:16 associated with clustering. We did not observe geographic grouping of genetically clustered patients.

DISCUSSION

Our results demonstrate high rates of HIV transmission clustering, without local geographic foci, among young black MSM in Chicago. Applied prospectively, phylogenetic analyses could guide prevention efforts and help break the cycle of transmission.

Phylogenetic studies of transmission dynamics in generalized HIV epidemics: an essential tool where the burden is greatest?

Efficient and effective HIV prevention measures for generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa have not yet been validated at the population level. Design and impact evaluation of such measures requires fine-scale understanding of local HIV transmission dynamics. The novel tools of HIV phylogenetics and molecular epidemiology may elucidate these transmission dynamics. Such methods have been incorporated into studies of concentrated HIV epidemics to identify proximate and determinant traits associated with ongoing transmission. However, applying similar phylogenetic analyses to generalized epidemics, including the design and evaluation of prevention trials, presents additional challenges. Here we review the scope of these methods and present examples of their use in concentrated epidemics in the context of prevention. Next, we describe the current uses for phylogenetics in generalized epidemics and discuss their promise for elucidating transmission patterns and informing prevention trials. Finally, we review logistic and technical challenges inherent to large-scale molecular epidemiological studies of generalized epidemics and suggest potential solutions.

Update on antiretroviral treatment during primary HIV infection

Primary HIV-1 infection covers a period of around 12 weeks in which the virus disseminates from the initial site of infection into different tissues and organs. In this phase, viremia is very high and transmission of HIV is an important issue. Most guidelines recommend antiretroviral treatment in patients who are symptomatic, although the indication for treatment remains inconclusive in asymptomatic patients. In this article the authors review the main virological and immunological events during this early phase of infection, and discuss the arguments for and against antiretroviral treatment. Recommendations of different guidelines, the issue of the HIV transmission and transmission of resistance to antiretroviral drugs, as well as recently available information opening perspectives for functional cure in patients treated in very early steps of HIV infection are also discussed.

Baseline clinical HIV genotypes are a valid measure of transmitted drug resistance within the treatment-naive population

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether baseline clinical genotypes are equivalent to diagnostic serum genotypes for surveillance of HIV transmitted drug resistance (TDR).

DESIGN

Current HIV TDR surveillance in Canada is conducted through genotyping remnant diagnostic sera from new HIV diagnoses. As part of routine care, baseline genotyping is now conducted on all newly diagnosed HIV infections, with TDR data being generated a second time on the same patients.

METHODS

Surveillance genotyping, on HIV diagnostic serum, was performed on newly diagnosed HIV cases from 2007 to 2010 in Alberta, Canada. All subjects with a baseline clinical genotype result on file, and no evidence of antiretroviral therapy, were studied further. The HIV sequences from diagnosis and from the first clinical genotype were compared according to elapsed time between testing and by evaluating timing of infection based on BED capture enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA, abbreviated as BED in this article).

RESULTS

Eighty-seven genotype pairs were available for analysis, most of which were subtype B. The time between genotypes ranged from 0 to 755 days, with a median of 36 days and an interquartile range of 155.25 days. Genetic distance between genotypes varied between 0 and 0.03389 substitutions per site and did not correlate with sampling times. There was a tendency for the genotypes of infections classified as recent by BED to be more similar to their clinical genotypes but this effect was lost when adjusted for elapsed time between tests. There was no difference in the identified drug resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline clinical genotypes from treatment-naive patients may be used for HIV TDR surveillance.

Automated analysis of phylogenetic clusters

BACKGROUND

As sequence data sets used for the investigation of pathogen transmission patterns increase in size, automated tools and standardized methods for cluster analysis have become necessary. We have developed an automated Cluster Picker which identifies monophyletic clades meeting user-input criteria for bootstrap support and maximum genetic distance within large phylogenetic trees. A second tool, the Cluster Matcher, automates the process of linking genetic data to epidemiological or clinical data, and matches clusters between runs of the Cluster Picker.

RESULTS

We explore the effect of different bootstrap and genetic distance thresholds on clusters identified in a data set of publicly available HIV sequences, and compare these results to those of a previously published tool for cluster identification. To demonstrate their utility, we then use the Cluster Picker and Cluster Matcher together to investigate how clusters in the data set changed over time. We find that clusters containing sequences from more than one UK location at the first time point (multiple origin) were significantly more likely to grow than those representing only a single location.

CONCLUSIONS

The Cluster Picker and Cluster Matcher can rapidly process phylogenetic trees containing tens of thousands of sequences. Together these tools will facilitate comparisons of pathogen transmission dynamics between studies and countries.

Molecular epidemiology of early and acute HIV type 1 infections in the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2005-2010

The U.S. military represents a unique population within the human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) pandemic. The last comprehensive study of HIV-1 in members of the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps (Sea Services) was completed in 2000, before large-scale combat operations were taking place. Here, we present molecular characterization of HIV-1 from 40 Sea Services personnel who were identified during their seroconversion window and initially classified as HIV-1 negative during screening. Protease/reverse transcriptase (pro/rt) and envelope (env) sequences were obtained from each member of the cohort. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out on these regions to determine relatedness within the cohort and calculate the most recent common ancestor for the related sequences. We identified 39 individuals infected with subtype B and one infected with CRF01_AE. Comparison of the pairwise genetic distance of Sea Service sequences and reference sequences in the env and pro/rt regions showed that five samples were part of molecular clusters, a group of two and a group of three, confirmed by single genome amplification. Real-time molecular monitoring of new HIV-1 acquisitions in the Sea Services may have a role in facilitating public health interventions at sites where related HIV-1 infections are identified.

Current assays for HIV-1 diagnostics and antiretroviral therapy monitoring: challenges and possibilities

In 2011, there were over 34 million people living with HIV infections, placing a heavy burden on public health sectors. HIV infection is a lifelong threat that cannot be prevented by vaccination or cured by antiretroviral drugs. The infected patients rely on daily antiretroviral therapy to suppress HIV viral replication. Hence, it is important to diagnose HIV infections as early as possible and to monitor the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy every 3–6 months. Different immunoassays detecting HIV antigens and antibodies have been modified to offer better sensitivity and more rapid diagnosis. Several clinical and virological parameters, including CD4+ cell counts, viral load and drug resistance mutations, are also used for treatment monitoring. Many molecular assay optimizations are now being utilized to improve patient care. This review will focus on the most updated HIV diagnostic assays, as well as discussing the upcoming possibilities of other advanced technologies.

Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic: the role of very late presenters in sustaining the epidemic

BACKGROUND

In Denmark, 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behavior for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns. The role of very late presenters (VLPs, defined by a CD4 T-cell count of <200 cells/μL at the time of diagnosis) in driving the epidemic is currently not known and was investigated in this study.

METHODS

We performed phylogenetic analysis to identify potential transmission clusters. One thousand five hundred fifteen partial polymerase sequences from 1515 newly diagnosed individuals in Denmark for whom clinical and epidemiological data existed were included in the study.

RESULTS

We identified 46 epidemic clusters, including a total of 502 patients. Median cluster size was 7 patients (range, 4-82). Of the 460 VLPs, 20% were included in a cluster. Through multivariate analysis, it was found that the clusters mainly consisted of Danish individuals with homosexual and intravenous drug use risk behavior, infected in Denmark with subtype B. Large clusters contained significantly more homosexual transmission events, characterized by primary infections, younger age, higher CD4 cell count, and lower viral load compared with the small clusters that contained mostly heterosexual transmission events and VLP.

CONCLUSION

Danish HIV epidemic is driven mainly by younger homosexual men diagnosed during primary HIV infection. VLPs appear more frequently in smaller clusters or as single branches in the phylogeny. The VLP contribution is not of significant importance from a transmission standpoint.

Prevalence of drug-resistant HIV type 1 at the time of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Portland, Oregon

The presence of transmitted drug-resistant HIV-1 (TDR) at the time of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with failure to achieve viral load suppression. Rates of TDR in ART-naive patients have been reported from various parts of the world through ongoing national, regional, and global evaluations; however, surveillance of TDR in Portland, Oregon has not been previously described. We describe the prevalence of TDR in patients in the Portland area who have recently entered care. Genotypic data were obtained from plasma specimens collected between 2003 and 2009 from 165 recently identified HIV-1-positive, ART-naive adults in care at the Multnomah County Health Department. Median time from diagnosis to first genotype was 2.7 months. Mutations associated with TDR were observed in 33 (20.0%) patients. Mutations associated with resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors (NRTI), nonnucleoside RT inhibitors (NNRTI), and protease inhibitors (PI) were found in 15 (9.1%), 17 (10.3%), and 5 (3.0%) patients, respectively (p=0.013 for NNRTI vs. PI, and 0.035 for NRTI vs. PI, Fisher exact test). Dual class resistance was observed in four (2.4%) patients. Predominant RT mutations included M41L, T215C or S, and K103N. The prevalence of HIV-1 with NRTI resistance-associated mutations increased from 2006 to 2008-2009 (p=0.004) based on date of diagnosis. These data indicate relatively high rates of drug resistance present prior to ART initiation among patients in the Portland area, and support continued surveillance of local trends of TDR to inform optimal individual treatment strategies and public health decisions.

Transmitted drug resistance and phylogenetic relationships among acute and early HIV-1-infected individuals in New York City

BACKGROUND

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is critical to managing HIV-1-infected individuals and being a public health concern. We report on TDR prevalence and include analyses of phylogenetic clustering of HIV-1 in a predominantly men who have sex with men cohort diagnosed during acute/recent HIV-1 infection in New York City.

METHODS

Genotypic resistance testing was conducted on plasma samples of 600 individuals with acute/recent HIV-1 infection (1995-2010). Sequences were used for resistance and phylogenetic analyses. Demographic and clinical data were abstracted from medical records. TDR was defined according to International AIDS Society-USA and Stanford HIV database guidelines. Phylogenetic and other analyses were conducted using PAUP*4.0 and SAS, respectively.

RESULTS

The mean duration since HIV-1 infection was 66.5 days. TDR prevalence was 14.3% and stably ranged between 10.8% and 21.6% (P(trend) = 0.42). Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors resistance declined from 15.5% to 2.7% over the study period (P(trend) = 0.005). M41L (3.7%), T215Y (4.0%), and K103N/S (4.7%) were the most common mutations. K103N/S prevalence increased from 1.9% to 8.0% between 1995 and 2010 (P(trend) = 0.04). Using a rigorous definition of clustering, 19.3% (112 of 581) of subtype B viral sequences cosegregated into transmission clusters and clusters increased over time. There were fewer and smaller transmission clusters than had been reported in a similar cohort in Montreal but similar to reports from elsewhere.

CONCLUSIONS

TDR is stable in this cohort and remains a significant concern to both individual patient management and the public health.

Impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy on the molecular epidemiology of newly diagnosed HIV infections

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate HIV-1 transmission trends and the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on newly diagnosed HIV infections in Geneva, Switzerland.

DESIGN

Retrospective molecular epidemiology analysis of all newly HIV-diagnosed individuals between 2008 and 2010.

METHODS

Phylogenetic analyses were performed using pol sequences of 780 newly HIV-1 diagnosed individuals between 2000 and 2010 (mandatory reporting) and 1058 individuals diagnosed before 2000. All clusters (bootstrap value >98%) including individuals diagnosed in 2008-2010 were analyzed. Recent HIV infections (<1 year) were determined by documented seroconversion and/or fraction of ambiguous nucleotides. Median viral load and HAART coverage during the study period were obtained from patients included in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).

RESULTS

Among 142 newly diagnosed individuals during 2008-2010, 49% had a recent infection and 42% were included in transmission clusters. Among the latter, two-thirds were included in new clusters and one-third expanded previously known clusters. MSM carrying resistant strains were more frequently included in clusters. Only 1.8% of individuals diagnosed before 2000 and 10.8% diagnosed during 2000-2008 were included in clusters involving individuals diagnosed between 2008 and 2010. During 2008-2010, the median population viral load of SHCS-enrolled individuals was significantly lower for individuals diagnosed before 2000 than for those diagnosed during 2000-2008 and 2008-2010 and HAART coverage significantly higher.

CONCLUSIONS

MSM with recent HIV infection are a significant source of onward transmission. Individuals diagnosed before 2000 were only exceptionally related to newly diagnosed infections between 2008 and 2010. Prevention campaigns need to be focused on improving diagnosis for recently infected individuals.

Phylogenetic insights into regional HIV transmission

OBJECTIVES

Despite prevention efforts, new HIV diagnoses continue in the southern United States, where the epidemic is characterized by significant racial/ethnic disparities. We integrated phylogenetic analyses with clinical data to reveal trends in local HIV transmission.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional analysis of 1671 HIV-infected individuals each with one B-subtype pol sequence obtained during chronic (82%; UNC Center for AIDS Research Clinical Cohort) or acute/recent (18%; Duke/UNC Acute HIV Consortium) infection.

METHODS

Phylogenies were inferred using neighbor joining to select related sequences then confirmed with Bayesian methods. We characterized transmission clusters (clades n ≥ 3 sequences supported by posterior probabilities = 1) by factors including race/ethnicity and transmission risk. Factors associated with cluster membership were evaluated for newly diagnosed patients.

RESULTS

Overall, 72% were men, 59% black and 39% men who have sex with men (MSM). A total of 557 (33%) sequences grouped in either 108 pairs (n = 216) or 67 clusters (n = 341). Clusters ranged from three to 36 (median 4) members. Composition was delineated primarily by race, with 28% exclusively black, and to a lesser extent by risk group. Both MSM and heterosexuals formed discrete clusters, although substantial mixing was observed. In multivariable analysis, patients with age 30 years or less (P = 0.009), acute infection (P = 0.02), local residence (P = 0.002) and transmitted drug resistance (P = 0.02) were more likely to be cluster members, whereas Latinos were less likely (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Integration of molecular, clinical and demographic data offers a unique view into the structure of local transmission networks. Clustering by black race, youth and transmitted drug resistance and inability to identify Latino clusters will inform prevention, testing and linkage to care strategies.

Adaptive evolution of HIV at HLA epitopes is associated with ethnicity in Canada

Host immune selection pressure influences the development of mutations that allow for HIV escape. Mutation patterns induced in HIV by the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) are HLA-allele specific. As ethnic groups have distinct and characteristic HLA allele frequencies, we can expect divergent viral evolution within ethnicities. Here, we have sequenced and analyzed the HIV pol gene from 1248 subtype B infected, treatment-naïve individuals in Canada. Phylogenetic analysis showed no separation between pol sequences from five self-identified ethnic groups, yet fixation index (F_ST) values showed significant divergence between ethnicities. A total of 17 amino acid sites showed an ethnic-specific fixation pattern (0.015<F_ST <0.060, p<0.01), and 27 codons were inferred to be under positive selection (p<0.01), with each set of sites strongly associated with HLA sites (p = 1.78×10⁻⁶ and p = 1.91×10⁻⁷, respectively). Within the pol gene, eight sites under HLA selective pressure were correlated with ethnicity, indicating ‘adaptive divergence’ between the groups studied. Our findings highlight challenges in HIV vaccine design in ethnically diverse countries with subtype B epidemics.

Factors limiting the transmission of HIV mutations conferring drug resistance: fitness costs and genetic bottlenecks

Transmission of HIV strains with drug-resistance mutations (DRMs) causes public health problems in resource-rich countries. We use a stochastic model, with data from viral competition experiments, to analyze the effect of fitness costs (FCs) and genetic bottlenecks on limiting transmission of 10 clinically significant DRMs. Transmission of DRMs with low FCs (∼0.2%) is similar to wild-type; transmission chains last ∼8 generations causing clusters of ∼60 infected individuals. Genetic bottlenecks substantially limit transmission of DRMs with moderately high FCs (∼0.6%); chains last ∼1–3 generations with transmission clusters of 2–7. Transmission of DRMs with extremely high FCs (>6%) only occurs from ∼5% of index cases. DRMs can revert to wild-type and remain as minority strains, within treatment-naïve individuals, undetectable by current resistance assays. We calculate, based on assay sensitivity, the length of time each DRM is detectable within individuals. Taken together, our results imply a hidden epidemic of transmitted resistance may exist.

HIV testing: the cornerstone of HIV prevention efforts in the USA

An estimated 1.2 million persons in the USA are infected with HIV, of whom approximately 20% are unaware they are infected. HIV testing and knowledge of HIV serostatus have important individual and public health benefits, including reduction of morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Although testing is the necessary first step to prevention, more than half of the US adult population has never been tested for HIV. However, this proportion is increasing due to revised national recommendations to make HIV testing a routine part of healthcare, expansion of testing efforts at local, state and national levels, and progress in the development and adoption of new testing technologies. In this article, we describe the essential role of HIV testing as a public health prevention strategy, examine recent advances in HIV testing technologies and testing implementation, and identify future directions for HIV testing in the USA.

Towards targeted screening for acute HIV infections in British Columbia

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to describe the characteristics of acute and established HIV infections diagnosed in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Province-wide HIV testing and surveillance data were analyzed to inform recommendations for targeted use of screening algorithms to detect acute HIV infections.

METHODS

Acute HIV infection was defined as a confirmed reactive HIV p24 antigen test (or HIV nucleic acid test), a non-reactive or reactive HIV EIA screening test and a non-reactive or indeterminate Western Blot. Characteristics of unique individuals were identified from the British Columbia HIV/AIDS Surveillance System. Primary drug resistance and HIV subtypes were identified by analyzing HIV pol sequences from residual sera from newly infected individuals.

RESULTS

From February 2006 to October 2008, 61 individuals met the acute HIV infection case definition, representing 6.2% of the 987 newly diagnosed HIV infections during the analysis period. Acute HIV infection cases were more likely to be men who have sex with men (crude OR 1.71; 95% CI 1.01-2.89], to have had a documented previous negative HIV test result (crude OR 2.89; 95% CI 1.52-5.51), and to have reported a reason for testing due to suspected seroconversion symptoms (crude OR 5.16; 95% CI 2.88-9.23). HIV subtypes and rates of transmitted drug resistance across all classes of drugs were similar in persons with both acute and established HIV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeted screening to detect acute HIV infection is a logical public health response to the HIV epidemic. Our findings suggest that acute HIV infection screening strategies, in our setting, are helpful for early diagnosis in men who have sex with men, in persons with seroconversion symptoms and in previously negative repeat testers.

A novel methodology for large-scale phylogeny partition

Understanding the determinants of virus transmission is a fundamental step for effective design of screening and intervention strategies to control viral epidemics. Phylogenetic analysis can be a valid approach for the identification of transmission chains, and very-large data sets can be analysed through parallel computation. Here we propose and validate a new methodology for the partition of large-scale phylogenies and the inference of transmission clusters. This approach, on the basis of a depth-first search algorithm, conjugates the evaluation of node reliability, tree topology and patristic distance analysis. The method has been applied to identify transmission clusters of a phylogeny of 11,541 human immunodeficiency virus-1 subtype B pol gene sequences from a large Italian cohort. Molecular transmission chains were characterized by means of different clinical/demographic factors, such as the interaction between male homosexuals and male heterosexuals. Our method takes an advantage of a flexible notion of transmission cluster and can become a general framework to analyse other epidemics.