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Cerutti-Pereyra F, Drenkard EJ, Espinoza M, Finucci B, Galván-Magaña F, Hacohen-Domené A, Hearn A, Hoyos-Padilla ME, Ketchum JT, Mejía-Falla PA, Moya-Serrano AV, Navia AF, Pazmiño DA, Ramírez-Macías D, Rummer JL, Salinas-de-León P, Sosa-Nishizaki O, Stock C, Chin A. Vulnerability of Eastern Tropical Pacific chondrichthyan fish to climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17373. [PMID: 38967106 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Revised: 04/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 07/06/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is an environmental emergency threatening species and ecosystems globally. Oceans have absorbed about 90% of anthropogenic heat and 20%-30% of the carbon emissions, resulting in ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, changes in ocean stratification and nutrient availability, and more severe extreme events. Given predictions of further changes, there is a critical need to understand how marine species will be affected. Here, we used an integrated risk assessment framework to evaluate the vulnerability of 132 chondrichthyans in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) to the impacts of climate change. Taking a precautionary view, we found that almost a quarter (23%) of the ETP chondrichthyan species evaluated were highly vulnerable to climate change, and much of the rest (76%) were moderately vulnerable. Most of the highly vulnerable species are batoids (77%), and a large proportion (90%) are coastal or pelagic species that use coastal habitats as nurseries. Six species of batoids were highly vulnerable in all three components of the assessment (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity). This assessment indicates that coastal species, particularly those relying on inshore nursery areas are the most vulnerable to climate change. Ocean warming, in combination with acidification and potential deoxygenation, will likely have widespread effects on ETP chondrichthyan species, but coastal species may also contend with changes in freshwater inputs, salinity, and sea level rise. This climate-related vulnerability is compounded by other anthropogenic factors, such as overfishing and habitat degradation already occurring in the region. Mitigating the impacts of climate change on ETP chondrichthyans involves a range of approaches that include addressing habitat degradation, sustainability of exploitation, and species-specific actions may be required for species at higher risk. The assessment also highlighted the need to further understand climate change's impacts on key ETP habitats and processes and identified knowledge gaps on ETP chondrichthyan species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Mario Espinoza
- Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Universidad de Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica
- MigraMar, Olema, California, USA
| | - Brittany Finucci
- National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Felipe Galván-Magaña
- Instituto Politécnico Nacional-Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
| | | | - Alexander Hearn
- MigraMar, Olema, California, USA
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Galápagos, Ecuador
| | | | - James T Ketchum
- MigraMar, Olema, California, USA
- Pelagios-Kakunjá A.C., La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
| | - Paola A Mejía-Falla
- Wildlife Conservation Society-WCS Colombia, Cali, Colombia
- Fundación colombiana para la investigación y conservación de tiburones y rayas-SQUALUS, Cali, Colombia
| | | | - Andres F Navia
- Fundación colombiana para la investigación y conservación de tiburones y rayas-SQUALUS, Cali, Colombia
| | - Diana A Pazmiño
- MigraMar, Olema, California, USA
- Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Galápagos, Ecuador
| | - Deni Ramírez-Macías
- Conexiones Terramar A.C. Whale Shark Mexico, La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico
| | - Jodie L Rummer
- James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Pelayo Salinas-de-León
- Charles Darwin Foundation, Galápagos, Ecuador
- Save Our Seas Foundation Shark Research Center and Guy Harvey Research Institute, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, Florida, USA
| | - Oscar Sosa-Nishizaki
- Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada, Baja California, Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
| | | | - Andrew Chin
- James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
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Tal O, Ostrovsky I, Gal G. A framework for identifying factors controlling cyanobacterium Microcystis flos-aquae blooms by coupled CCM-ECCM Bayesian networks. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11475. [PMID: 38932972 PMCID: PMC11199127 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2023] [Revised: 05/06/2024] [Accepted: 05/10/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater sources are a global concern, and gaining insight into their causes is crucial for effective resource management and control. In this study, we present a novel computational framework for the causal analysis of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) in Lake Kinneret. Our framework integrates Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) and Extended CCM (ECCM) causal networks with Bayesian Network (BN) models. The constructed CCM-ECCM causal networks and BN models unveil significant interactions among factors influencing cyanoHAB formation. These interactions have been validated by domain experts and supported by evidence from peer-reviewed publications. Our findings suggest that Microcystis flos-aquae levels are influenced not only by community structure but also by ammonium, phosphate, oxygen, and temperature levels in the weeks preceding bloom occurrences. We demonstrated a non-parametric computational framework for causal analysis of a multivariate ecosystem. Our framework offers a more comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms driving M. flos-aquae blooms in Lake Kinneret. It captures complex interactions and provides an explainable prediction model. By considering causal relationships, temporal dynamics, and joint probabilities of environmental factors, the proposed framework enhances our understanding of cyanoHABs in Lake Kinneret.
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Affiliation(s)
- O. Tal
- Kinneret Limnological LaboratoryIsrael Oceanographic and Limnological ResearchMigdalIsrael
| | - I. Ostrovsky
- Kinneret Limnological LaboratoryIsrael Oceanographic and Limnological ResearchMigdalIsrael
| | - G. Gal
- Kinneret Limnological LaboratoryIsrael Oceanographic and Limnological ResearchMigdalIsrael
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Dillon EM, Dunne EM, Womack TM, Kouvari M, Larina E, Claytor JR, Ivkić A, Juhn M, Carmona PSM, Robson SV, Saha A, Villafaña JA, Zill ME. Challenges and directions in analytical paleobiology. PALEOBIOLOGY 2023; 49:377-393. [PMID: 37809321 PMCID: PMC7615171 DOI: 10.1017/pab.2023.3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/10/2023]
Abstract
Over the last 50 years, access to new data and analytical tools has expanded the study of analytical paleobiology, contributing to innovative analyses of biodiversity dynamics over Earth's history. Despite-or even spurred by-this growing availability of resources, analytical paleobiology faces deep-rooted obstacles that stem from the need for more equitable access to data and best practices to guide analyses of the fossil record. Recent progress has been accelerated by a collective push toward more collaborative, interdisciplinary, and open science, especially by early-career researchers. Here, we survey four challenges facing analytical paleobiology from an early-career perspective: (1) accounting for biases when interpreting the fossil record; (2) integrating fossil and modern biodiversity data; (3) building data science skills; and (4) increasing data accessibility and equity. We discuss recent efforts to address each challenge, highlight persisting barriers, and identify tools that have advanced analytical work. Given the inherent linkages between these challenges, we encourage discourse across disciplines to find common solutions. We also affirm the need for systemic changes that reevaluate how we conduct and share paleobiological research.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin M. Dillon
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, U.S.A.; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Republic of Panama
| | - Emma M. Dunne
- GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU), 91054 Erlangen, Germany; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom
| | - Tom M. Womack
- School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Miranta Kouvari
- Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Life Sciences Department, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, United Kingdom
| | - Ekaterina Larina
- Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, U.S.A
| | - Jordan Ray Claytor
- Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A; Burke Museum of Natural History and Culture, Seattle, Washington 98195, U.S.A
| | - Angelina Ivkić
- Department of Palaeontology, University of Vienna, Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2,1090 Vienna, Austria
| | - Mark Juhn
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, U.S.A
| | - Pablo S. Milla Carmona
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas, Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina; Instituto de Estudios Andinos “Don Pablo Groeber” (IDEAN, UBA-CONICET), Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina
| | - Selina Viktor Robson
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
| | - Anwesha Saha
- Institute of Palaeobiology, Polish Academy of Sciences, ul. Twarda 51/55, 00-818 Warsaw, Poland; Laboratory of Paleogenetics and Conservation Genetics, Centre of New Technologies (CeNT), University of Warsaw, S. Banacha 2c, 02-097 Warsaw, Poland
| | - Jaime A. Villafaña
- Department of Palaeontology, University of Vienna, Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2, 1090 Vienna, Austria; Centro de Investigación en Recursos Naturales y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Bernardo O ‘Higgins, Santiago 8370993, Chile
| | - Michelle E. Zill
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, California 92521, U.S.A
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Tekwa E, Gonzalez A, Zurell D, O'Connor M. Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2023; 378:20220181. [PMID: 37246389 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0181] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023] Open
Abstract
This issue addresses the multifaceted problems of understanding biodiversity change to meet emerging international development and conservation goals, national economic accounting and diverse community needs. Recent international agreements highlight the need to establish monitoring and assessment programmes at national and regional levels. We identify an opportunity for the research community to develop the methods for robust detection and attribution of biodiversity change that will contribute to national assessments and guide conservation action. The 16 contributions of this issue address six major aspects of biodiversity assessment: connecting policy to science, establishing observation, improving statistical estimation, detecting change, attributing causes and projecting the future. These studies are led by experts in Indigenous studies, economics, ecology, conservation, statistics, and computer science, with representations from Asia, Africa, South America, North America and Europe. The results place biodiversity science in the context of policy needs and provide an updated roadmap for how to observe biodiversity change in a way that supports conservation action via robust detection and attribution science. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eden Tekwa
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 1B1
- Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, British Columbia, Canada V0P 1H0
| | - Andrew Gonzalez
- Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada H3A 1B1
| | - Damaris Zurell
- Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, 14469 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Mary O'Connor
- Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1Z4
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Chen D, Sun X, Cheke RA. Inferring a Causal Relationship between Environmental Factors and Respiratory Infections Using Convergent Cross-Mapping. ENTROPY (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 25:e25050807. [PMID: 37238562 DOI: 10.3390/e25050807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The incidence of respiratory infections in the population is related to many factors, among which environmental factors such as air quality, temperature, and humidity have attracted much attention. In particular, air pollution has caused widespread discomfort and concern in developing countries. Although the correlation between respiratory infections and air pollution is well known, establishing causality between them remains elusive. In this study, by conducting theoretical analysis, we updated the procedure of performing the extended convergent cross-mapping (CCM, a method of causal inference) to infer the causality between periodic variables. Consistently, we validated this new procedure on the synthetic data generated by a mathematical model. For real data in Shaanxi province of China in the period of 1 January 2010 to 15 November 2016, we first confirmed that the refined method is applicable by investigating the periodicity of influenza-like illness cases, an air quality index, temperature, and humidity through wavelet analysis. We next illustrated that air quality (quantified by AQI), temperature, and humidity affect the daily influenza-like illness cases, and, in particular, the respiratory infection cases increased progressively with increased AQI with a time delay of 11 days.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daipeng Chen
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China
- Mathematical Institute, Leiden University, 2333 CA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Xiaodan Sun
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China
| | - Robert A Cheke
- Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich at Medway, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Chatham ME4 4TB, Kent, UK
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Han ZY, Wieczynski DJ, Yammine A, Gibert JP. Temperature and nutrients drive eco-phenotypic dynamics in a microbial food web. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20222263. [PMID: 36722083 PMCID: PMC9890118 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.2263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2022] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic increases in temperature and nutrient loads will likely impact food web structure and stability. Although their independent effects have been reasonably well studied, their joint effects-particularly on coupled ecological and phenotypic dynamics-remain poorly understood. Here we experimentally manipulated temperature and nutrient levels in microbial food webs and used time-series analysis to quantify the strength of reciprocal effects between ecological and phenotypic dynamics across trophic levels. We found that (1) joint-often interactive-effects of temperature and nutrients on ecological dynamics are more common at higher trophic levels, (2) temperature and nutrients interact to shift the relative strength of top-down versus bottom-up control, and (3) rapid phenotypic change mediates observed ecological responses to changes in temperature and nutrients. Our results uncover how feedback between ecological and phenotypic dynamics mediate food web responses to environmental change. This suggests important but previously unknown ways that temperature and nutrients might jointly control the rapid eco-phenotypic feedback that determine food web dynamics in a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ze-Yi Han
- Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
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Gasbarro R, Sowers D, Margolin A, Cordes EE. Distribution and predicted climatic refugia for a reef-building cold-water coral on the southeast US margin. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:7108-7125. [PMID: 36054745 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16415] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Revised: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is reorganizing the planet's biodiversity, necessitating proactive management of species and habitats based on spatiotemporal predictions of distributions across climate scenarios. In marine settings, climatic changes will predominantly manifest via warming, ocean acidification, deoxygenation, and changes in hydrodynamics. Lophelia pertusa, the main reef-forming coral present throughout the deep Atlantic Ocean (>200 m), is particularly sensitive to such stressors with stark reductions in suitable habitat predicted to accrue by 2100 in a business-as-usual scenario. However, with new occurrence data for this species along with higher-resolution bathymetry and climate data, it may be possible to locate further climatic refugia. Here, we synthesize new and published biogeographic, geomorphological, and climatic data to build ensemble, multi-scale habitat suitability models for L. pertusa on the continental margin of the southeast United States (SEUS). We then project these models in two timepoints (2050, 2100) and four climate change scenarios to characterize the occurrence probability of this critical cold-water coral (CWC) habitat now and in the future. Our models reveal the extent of reef habitat in the SEUS and corroborate it as the largest currently known essentially continuous CWC reef province on earth, and also predict abundance of L. pertusa to identify key areas, including those outside areas currently protected from bottom-contact fishing. Drastic reductions in L. pertusa climatic suitability index emerged primarily after 2050 and were concentrated at the shallower end (<~550 m) of the regional distribution under the Gulf Stream main axis. Our results thus suggest a depth-driven climate refuge effect where deeper, cooler reef sites experience lesser declines. The strength of this effect increases with climate scenario severity. Taken together, our study has implications for the regional and global management of this species, portending changes in the biodiversity reliant on CWC habitats and the critical ecosystem services they provide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan Gasbarro
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Derek Sowers
- NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, Durham, New Hampshire, USA
| | - Alex Margolin
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Erik E Cordes
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
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