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Lin S, Ma C, Lin R. Research on the Influence of Information Diffusion on the Transmission of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:6801. [PMID: 35682383 PMCID: PMC9179963 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19116801] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2022] [Revised: 05/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
With the rapid development of the Mobile Internet in China, epidemic information is real-time and holographic, and the role of information diffusion in epidemic control is increasingly prominent. At the same time, the publicity of all kinds of big data also provides the possibility to explore the impact of media information diffusion on disease transmission. We explored the mechanism of the influence of information diffusion on the transmission of COVID-19, developed a model of the interaction between information diffusion and disease transmission based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, and conducted an empirical test by using econometric methods. The benchmark result showed that there was a significant negative correlation between the information diffusion and the transmission of COVID-19. The result of robust test showed that the diffusion of both epidemic information and protection information hindered the further transmission of the epidemic. Heterogeneity test results showed that the effect of epidemic information on the suppression of COVID-19 is more significant in cities with weak epidemic control capabilities and higher Internet development levels.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Chao Ma
- School of Economics and Management, Tongji University, Tongji Building A, Siping Road 1500, Shanghai 200092, China; (S.L.); (R.L.)
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Kost GJ. Geospatial Hotspots Need Point-of-Care Strategies to Stop Highly Infectious Outbreaks. Arch Pathol Lab Med 2020; 144:1166-1190. [PMID: 32298139 DOI: 10.5858/arpa.2020-0172-ra] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/13/2020] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Abstract
CONTEXT.— Point-of-care testing (POCT), diagnostic testing at or near the site of patient care, is inherently spatial, that is, performed at points of need, and also intrinsically temporal, because it produces fast actionable results. Outbreaks generate geospatial "hotspots." POC strategies help control hotspots, detect spread, and speed treatment of highly infectious diseases. OBJECTIVES.— To stop outbreaks, accelerate detection, facilitate emergency response for epidemics, mobilize public health practitioners, enhance community resilience, and improve crisis standards of care. DATA SOURCES.— PubMed, World-Wide Web, newsprint, and others were searched until Coronavirus infectious disease-19 was declared a pandemic, the United States, a national emergency, and Europe, the epicenter. Coverage comprised interviews in Asia, email to/from Wuhan, papers, articles, chapters, documents, maps, flowcharts, schematics, and geospatial-associated concepts. EndNote X9.1 (Clarivate Analytics) consolidated literature as abstracts, ULRs, and PDFs, recovering 136 hotspot articles. More than 500 geospatial science articles were assessed for relevance to POCT. CONCLUSIONS.— POCT can interrupt spirals of dysfunction and delay by enhancing disease detection, decision-making, contagion containment, and safe spacing, thereby softening outbreak surges and diminishing risk before human, economic, and cultural losses mount. POCT results identify where infected individuals spread Coronavirus infectious disease-19, when delays cause death, and how to deploy resources. Results in national cloud databases help optimize outbreak control, mitigation, emergency response, and community resilience. The Coronavirus infectious disease-19 pandemic demonstrates unequivocally that governments must support POCT and multidisciplinary healthcare personnel must learn its principles, then adopt POC geospatial strategies, so that onsite diagnostic testing can ramp up to meet needs in times of crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerald J Kost
- From the POCT•CTR (Point-of-care Testing Center for Teaching and Research), University of California, Davis
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Kleczkowski A, Hoyle A, McMenemy P. One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 374:20180255. [PMID: 31056049 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
One hundred years after the 1918 influenza outbreak, are we ready for the next pandemic? This paper addresses the need to identify and develop collaborative, interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral approaches to modelling of infectious diseases including the fields of not only human and veterinary medicine, but also plant epidemiology. Firstly, the paper explains the concepts on which the most common epidemiological modelling approaches are based, namely the division of a host population into susceptible, infected and removed (SIR) classes and the proportionality of the infection rate to the size of the susceptible and infected populations. It then demonstrates how these simple concepts have been developed into a vast and successful modelling framework that has been used in predicting and controlling disease outbreaks for over 100 years. Secondly, it considers the compartmental models based on the SIR paradigm within the broader concept of a 'disease tetrahedron' (comprising host, pathogen, environment and man) and uses it to review the similarities and differences among the fields comprising the 'OneHealth' approach. Finally, the paper advocates interactions between all fields and explores the future challenges facing modellers. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Kleczkowski
- 1 Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde , Glasgow G1 1XH , UK
| | - Andy Hoyle
- 2 Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling , Stirling FK9 4LA , UK
| | - Paul McMenemy
- 2 Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling , Stirling FK9 4LA , UK
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Kost GJ. Geospatial Science and Point-of-Care Testing: Creating Solutions for Population Access, Emergencies, Outbreaks, and Disasters. Front Public Health 2019; 7:329. [PMID: 32039125 PMCID: PMC6988819 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2019.00329] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2019] [Accepted: 10/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives: (a) To understand how to integrate geospatial concepts when implementing point-of-care testing (POCT); (b) to facilitate emergency, outbreak, and disaster preparedness and emergency management in healthcare small-world networks; (c) to enhance community resilience by using POCT in tandem with geographic information systems (GISs) and other geospatial tools; and (d) to advance crisis standards of care at points of need, adaptable and scalable for public health practice in limited-resource countries and other global settings. Content: Visual logistics help integrate and synthesize POCT and geospatial concepts. The resulting geospatial solutions presented here comprise: (1) small-world networks and regional topography; (2) space-time transformation, hubs, and asset mapping; (3) spatial and geospatial care paths™; (4) GIS-POCT; (5) isolation laboratories, diagnostics isolators, and mobile laboratories for highly infectious diseases; (6) alternate care facilities; (7) roaming POCT—airborne, ambulances, space, and wearables; (8) connected and wireless POCT outside hospitals; (9) unmanned aerial vehicles; (10) geospatial practice—demographic care unit resource scoring, geographic risk assessment, and national POCT policy and guidelines; (11) the hybrid laboratory; and (12) point-of-careology. Value: Small-world networks and their connectivity facilitate efficient and effective placement of POCT for optimal response, rescue, diagnosis, and treatment. Spatial care paths™ speed transport from primary encounters to referral centers bypassing topographic bottlenecks, process gaps, and time-consuming interruptions. Regional GISs position POCT close to where patients live to facilitate rapid triage, decrease therapeutic turnaround time, and conserve economic resources. Geospatial care paths™ encompass demographic and population access features. Timeliness creates value during acute illness, complex crises, and unexpected disasters. Isolation laboratories equipped with POCT help stop outbreaks and safely support critically ill patients with highly infectious diseases. POCT-enabled spatial grids can map sentinel cases and establish geographic limits of epidemics for ring vaccination. Impact: Geospatial solutions generate inherently optimal and logical placement of POCT conceptually, physically, and temporally as a means to improve crisis response and spatial resilience. If public health professionals, geospatial scientists, and POCT specialists join forces, new collaborative teamwork can create faster response and higher impact during disasters, complex crises, outbreaks, and epidemics, as well as more efficient primary, urgent, and emergency community care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gerald J Kost
- Point-of-Care Testing Center for Teaching and Research (POCT·CTR™), University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States.,Knowledge Optimization®, Davis, CA, United States
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5
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Digitizable therapeutics for decentralized mitigation of global pandemics. Sci Rep 2019; 9:14345. [PMID: 31586137 PMCID: PMC6778202 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-50553-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2019] [Accepted: 09/15/2019] [Indexed: 01/31/2023] Open
Abstract
When confronted with a globally spreading epidemic, we seek efficient strategies for drug dissemination, creating a competition between supply and demand at a global scale. Propagating along similar networks, e.g., air-transportation, the spreading dynamics of the supply vs. the demand are, however, fundamentally different, with the pathogens driven by contagion dynamics, and the drugs by commodity flow. We show that these different dynamics lead to intrinsically distinct spreading patterns: while viruses spread homogeneously across all destinations, creating a concurrent global demand, commodity flow unavoidably leads to a highly uneven spread, in which selected nodes are rapidly supplied, while the majority remains deprived. Consequently, even under ideal conditions of extreme production and shipping capacities, due to the inherent heterogeneity of network-based commodity flow, efficient mitigation becomes practically unattainable, as homogeneous demand is met by highly heterogeneous supply. Therefore, we propose here a decentralized mitigation strategy, based on local production and dissemination of therapeutics, that, in effect, bypasses the existing distribution networks. Such decentralization is enabled thanks to the recent development of digitizable therapeutics, based on, e.g., short DNA sequences or printable chemical compounds, that can be distributed as digital sequence files and synthesized on location via DNA/3D printing technology. We test our decentralized mitigation under extremely challenging conditions, such as suppressed local production rates or low therapeutic efficacy, and find that thanks to its homogeneous nature, it consistently outperforms the centralized alternative, saving many more lives with significantly less resources.
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Andersen KF, Buddenhagen CE, Rachkara P, Gibson R, Kalule S, Phillips D, Garrett KA. Modeling Epidemics in Seed Systems and Landscapes To Guide Management Strategies: The Case of Sweet Potato in Northern Uganda. PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2019; 109:1519-1532. [PMID: 30785374 PMCID: PMC7779973 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-03-18-0072-r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/14/2019] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Seed systems are critical for deployment of improved varieties but also can serve as major conduits for the spread of seedborne pathogens. As in many other epidemic systems, epidemic risk in seed systems often depends on the structure of networks of trade, social interactions, and landscape connectivity. In a case study, we evaluated the structure of an informal sweet potato seed system in the Gulu region of northern Uganda for its vulnerability to the spread of emerging epidemics and its utility for disseminating improved varieties. Seed transaction data were collected by surveying vine sellers weekly during the 2014 growing season. We combined data from these observed seed transactions with estimated dispersal risk based on village-to-village proximity to create a multilayer network or "supranetwork." Both the inverse power law function and negative exponential function, common models for dispersal kernels, were evaluated in a sensitivity analysis/uncertainty quantification across a range of parameters chosen to represent spread based on proximity in the landscape. In a set of simulation experiments, we modeled the introduction of a novel pathogen and evaluated the influence of spread parameters on the selection of villages for surveillance and management. We found that the starting position in the network was critical for epidemic progress and final epidemic outcomes, largely driven by node out-degree. The efficacy of node centrality measures was evaluated for utility in identifying villages in the network to manage and limit disease spread. Node degree often performed as well as other, more complicated centrality measures for the networks where village-to-village spread was modeled by the inverse power law, whereas betweenness centrality was often more effective for negative exponential dispersal. This analysis framework can be applied to provide recommendations for a wide variety of seed systems.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.
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Affiliation(s)
- K. F. Andersen
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
| | - C. E. Buddenhagen
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
| | - P. Rachkara
- Department of Rural Development and Agribusiness, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda
| | - R. Gibson
- Natural Resource Institute, University of Greenwich, Greenwich, United
| | - S. Kalule
- Department of Rural Development and Agribusiness, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda
| | - D. Phillips
- Natural Resource Institute, University of Greenwich, Greenwich, United
| | - K. A. Garrett
- Plant Pathology Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
- Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, U.S.A
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Rimbaud L, Dallot S, Bruchou C, Thoyer S, Jacquot E, Soubeyrand S, Thébaud G. Improving Management Strategies of Plant Diseases Using Sequential Sensitivity Analyses. PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2019; 109:1184-1197. [PMID: 30844325 DOI: 10.1094/phyto-06-18-0196-r] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Improvement of management strategies of epidemics is often hampered by constraints on experiments at large spatiotemporal scales. A promising approach consists of modeling the biological epidemic process and human interventions, which both impact disease spread. However, few methods enable the simultaneous optimization of the numerous parameters of sophisticated control strategies. To do so, we propose a heuristic approach (i.e., a practical improvement method approximating an optimal solution) based on sequential sensitivity analyses. In addition, we use an economic improvement criterion based on the net present value, accounting for both the cost of the different control measures and the benefit generated by disease suppression. This work is motivated by sharka (caused by Plum pox virus), a vector-borne disease of prunus trees (especially apricot, peach, and plum), the management of which in orchards is mainly based on surveillance and tree removal. We identified the key parameters of a spatiotemporal model simulating sharka spread and control and approximated optimal values for these parameters. The results indicate that the current French management of sharka efficiently controls the disease, but it can be economically improved using alternative strategies that are identified and discussed. The general approach should help policy makers to design sustainable and cost-effective strategies for disease management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Loup Rimbaud
- 1 BGPI, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, TA A-54/K, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | - Sylvie Dallot
- 1 BGPI, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, TA A-54/K, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | | | - Sophie Thoyer
- 3 CEE-M, Montpellier SupAgro, INRA, CNRS, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France
| | - Emmanuel Jacquot
- 1 BGPI, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, TA A-54/K, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
| | | | - Gaël Thébaud
- 1 BGPI, INRA, Montpellier SupAgro, University of Montpellier, CIRAD, TA A-54/K, 34398 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
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Zhan XX, Liu C, Zhou G, Zhang ZK, Sun GQ, Zhu JJH, Jin Z. Coupling dynamics of epidemic spreading and information diffusion on complex networks. APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION 2018; 332:437-448. [PMID: 32287501 PMCID: PMC7112333 DOI: 10.1016/j.amc.2018.03.050] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2017] [Revised: 03/06/2018] [Accepted: 03/11/2018] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
The interaction between disease and disease information on complex networks has facilitated an interdisciplinary research area. When a disease begins to spread in the population, the corresponding information would also be transmitted among individuals, which in turn influence the spreading pattern of the disease. In this paper, firstly, we analyze the propagation of two representative diseases (H7N9 and Dengue fever) in the real-world population and their corresponding information on Internet, suggesting the high correlation of the two-type dynamical processes. Secondly, inspired by empirical analyses, we propose a nonlinear model to further interpret the coupling effect based on the SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) model. Both simulation results and theoretical analysis show that a high prevalence of epidemic will lead to a slow information decay, consequently resulting in a high infected level, which shall in turn prevent the epidemic spreading. Finally, further theoretical analysis demonstrates that a multi-outbreak phenomenon emerges via the effect of coupling dynamics, which finds good agreement with empirical results. This work may shed light on the in-depth understanding of the interplay between the dynamics of epidemic spreading and information diffusion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiu-Xiu Zhan
- Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, PR China
- Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands
| | - Chuang Liu
- Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, PR China
| | - Ge Zhou
- Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, PR China
| | - Zi-Ke Zhang
- Research Center for Complexity Sciences, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121, PR China
- Institute of Automation, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, PR China
| | - Gui-Quan Sun
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, PR China
| | - Jonathan J H Zhu
- Web Mining Lab, Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, PR China
| | - Zhen Jin
- Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, PR China
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9
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Risk stratification in compartmental epidemic models: Where to draw the line? J Theor Biol 2017; 428:1-17. [PMID: 28606751 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2017.06.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2016] [Revised: 06/06/2017] [Accepted: 06/07/2017] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Economic evaluations of infectious disease control interventions frequently use dynamic compartmental epidemic models. Such models capture heterogeneity in risk of infection by stratifying the population into discrete risk groups, thus approximating what is typically continuous variation in risk. An important open question is whether and how different risk stratification choices influence model predictions of intervention effects. We develop equivalent Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) dynamic transmission models: an unstratified model, a model stratified into a high-risk and low-risk group, and a model with an arbitrary number of risk groups. Absent intervention, the models produce the same overall prevalence of infected individuals in steady state. We consider an intervention that either reduces the contact rate or increases the disease clearance rate. We develop analytical and numerical results characterizing the models and the effects of the intervention. We find that there exist multiple feasible choices of risk stratification, contact distribution, and within- and between-group contact rates for models that stratify risk. We show analytically and empirically that these choices can generate different estimates of intervention effectiveness, and that these differences can be significant enough to alter conclusions from cost-effectiveness analyses and change policy recommendations. We conclude that the choice of how to discretize risk in compartmental epidemic models can influence predicted effectiveness of interventions. Therefore, analysts should examine multiple alternatives and report the range of results.
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Nicol S, Sabbadin R, Peyrard N, Chadès I. Finding the best management policy to eradicate invasive species from spatial ecological networks with simultaneous actions. J Appl Ecol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12884] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sam Nicol
- CSIRO; Ecosciences Precinct; Dutton Park Qld 4102 Australia
| | - Regis Sabbadin
- INRA UR875 Unité de Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées; Toulouse F-31326 Castanet Tolosan France
| | - Nathalie Peyrard
- INRA UR875 Unité de Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées; Toulouse F-31326 Castanet Tolosan France
| | - Iadine Chadès
- CSIRO; Ecosciences Precinct; Dutton Park Qld 4102 Australia
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Le Cointe R, Simon TE, Delarue P, Hervé M, Leclerc M, Poggi S. Reducing the Use of Pesticides with Site-Specific Application: The Chemical Control of Rhizoctonia solani as a Case of Study for the Management of Soil-Borne Diseases. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0163221. [PMID: 27668731 PMCID: PMC5036793 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2016] [Accepted: 09/06/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Reducing our reliance on pesticides is an essential step towards the sustainability of agricultural production. One approach involves the rational use of pesticides combined with innovative crop management. Most control strategies currently focus on the temporal aspect of epidemics, e.g. determining the optimal date for spraying, regardless of the spatial mechanics and ecology of disease spread. Designing innovative pest management strategies incorporating the spatial aspect of epidemics involves thorough knowledge on how disease control affects the life-history traits of the pathogen. In this study, using Rhizoctonia solani/Raphanus sativus as an example of a soil-borne pathosystem, we investigated the effects of a chemical control currently used by growers, Monceren® L, on key epidemiological components (saprotrophic spread and infectivity). We tested the potential "shield effect" of Monceren® L on pathogenic spread in a site-specific application context, i.e. the efficiency of this chemical to contain the spread of the fungus from an infected host when application is spatially localized, in our case, a strip placed between the infected host and a recipient bait. Our results showed that Monceren® L mainly inhibits the saprotrophic spread of the fungus in soil and may prevent the fungus from reaching its host plant. However, perhaps surprisingly we did not detect any significant effect of the fungicide on the pathogen infectivity. Finally, highly localized application of the fungicide-a narrow strip of soil (12.5 mm wide) sprayed with Monceren® L-significantly decreased local transmission of the pathogen, suggesting lowered risk of occurrence of invasive epidemics. Our results highlight that detailed knowledge on epidemiological processes could contribute to the design of innovative management strategies based on precision agriculture tools to improve the efficacy of disease control and reduce pesticide use.
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Abstract
It is nearly 20 years since the concept of a small-world network was first quantitatively defined, by a combination of high clustering and short path length; and about 10 years since this metric of complex network topology began to be widely applied to analysis of neuroimaging and other neuroscience data as part of the rapid growth of the new field of connectomics. Here, we review briefly the foundational concepts of graph theoretical estimation and generation of small-world networks. We take stock of some of the key developments in the field in the past decade and we consider in some detail the implications of recent studies using high-resolution tract-tracing methods to map the anatomical networks of the macaque and the mouse. In doing so, we draw attention to the important methodological distinction between topological analysis of binary or unweighted graphs, which have provided a popular but simple approach to brain network analysis in the past, and the topology of weighted graphs, which retain more biologically relevant information and are more appropriate to the increasingly sophisticated data on brain connectivity emerging from contemporary tract-tracing and other imaging studies. We conclude by highlighting some possible future trends in the further development of weighted small-worldness as part of a deeper and broader understanding of the topology and the functional value of the strong and weak links between areas of mammalian cortex.
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Affiliation(s)
- Danielle S. Bassett
- Department of Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Danielle S. Bassett, Department of Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania, 210 S. 33rd Street, 240 Skirkanich Hall, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA.
| | - Edward T. Bullmore
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- ImmunoPsychiatry, Immuno-Inflammation Therapeutic Area Unit, GlaxoSmithKline R&D, Stevenage, UK
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Liu QH, Wang W, Tang M, Zhang HF. Impacts of complex behavioral responses on asymmetric interacting spreading dynamics in multiplex networks. Sci Rep 2016; 6:25617. [PMID: 27156574 PMCID: PMC4860576 DOI: 10.1038/srep25617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/07/2015] [Accepted: 04/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Information diffusion and disease spreading in communication-contact layered network are typically asymmetrically coupled with each other, in which disease spreading can be significantly affected by the way an individual being aware of disease responds to the disease. Many recent studies have demonstrated that human behavioral adoption is a complex and non-Markovian process, where the probability of behavior adoption is dependent on the cumulative times of information received and the social reinforcement effect of the cumulative information. In this paper, the impacts of such a non-Markovian vaccination adoption behavior on the epidemic dynamics and the control effects are explored. It is found that this complex adoption behavior in the communication layer can significantly enhance the epidemic threshold and reduce the final infection rate. By defining the social cost as the total cost of vaccination and treatment, it can be seen that there exists an optimal social reinforcement effect and optimal information transmission rate allowing the minimal social cost. Moreover, a mean-field theory is developed to verify the correctness of simulation results.
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Affiliation(s)
- Quan-Hui Liu
- Web Sciences Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
- Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
| | - Wei Wang
- Web Sciences Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
- Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
| | - Ming Tang
- Web Sciences Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
- Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, China
| | - Hai-Feng Zhang
- School of Mathematical Science, Anhui University, Hefei 230039, China
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Cunniffe NJ, Stutt ROJH, DeSimone RE, Gottwald TR, Gilligan CA. Optimising and communicating options for the control of invasive plant disease when there is epidemiological uncertainty. PLoS Comput Biol 2015; 11:e1004211. [PMID: 25874622 PMCID: PMC4395213 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2014] [Accepted: 02/25/2015] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Although local eradication is routinely attempted following introduction of disease into a new region, failure is commonplace. Epidemiological principles governing the design of successful control are not well-understood. We analyse factors underlying the effectiveness of reactive eradication of localised outbreaks of invading plant disease, using citrus canker in Florida as a case study, although our results are largely generic, and apply to other plant pathogens (as we show via our second case study, citrus greening). We demonstrate how to optimise control via removal of hosts surrounding detected infection (i.e. localised culling) using a spatially-explicit, stochastic epidemiological model. We show how to define optimal culling strategies that take account of stochasticity in disease spread, and how the effectiveness of disease control depends on epidemiological parameters determining pathogen infectivity, symptom emergence and spread, the initial level of infection, and the logistics and implementation of detection and control. We also consider how optimal culling strategies are conditioned on the levels of risk acceptance/aversion of decision makers, and show how to extend the analyses to account for potential larger-scale impacts of a small-scale outbreak. Control of local outbreaks by culling can be very effective, particularly when started quickly, but the optimum strategy and its performance are strongly dependent on epidemiological parameters (particularly those controlling dispersal and the extent of any cryptic infection, i.e. infectious hosts prior to symptoms), the logistics of detection and control, and the level of local and global risk that is deemed to be acceptable. A version of the model we developed to illustrate our methodology and results to an audience of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators and growers, is available online as an interactive, user-friendly interface at http://www.webidemics.com/. This version of our model allows the complex epidemiological principles that underlie our results to be communicated to a non-specialist audience.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nik J. Cunniffe
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | | | - R. Erik DeSimone
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Tim R. Gottwald
- United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Fort Pierce, Florida, United States of America
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Shao Q, Jia M. Influences on influenza transmission within terminal based on hierarchical structure of personal contact network. BMC Public Health 2015; 15:257. [PMID: 25849344 PMCID: PMC4376360 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-1536-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2014] [Accepted: 02/13/2015] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Since the outbreak of pandemics, influenza has caused extensive attention in the field of public health. It is actually hard to distinguish what is the most effective method to control the influenza transmission within airport terminal. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the influences of passenger source, immunity difference and social relation structure on the influenza transmission in terminal. METHODS A method combining hierarchical structure of personal contact network with agent-based SEIR model was proposed to analyze the characteristics of influenza diffusion within terminal. Based on the spatial distance between individuals, the hierarchical structure of personal contact network was defined to construct a complex relationship of passengers in the real world. Moreover, the agent-based SEIR model was improved by considering the individual level of influenza spread characteristics. To evaluate the method, this process was fused in simulation based on the constructed personal contact network. RESULTS In the terminal we investigated, personal contact network was defined by following four layers: social relation structure, procedure partition, procedure area, and the whole terminal. With the growing of layer, the degree distribution curves move right. The value of degree distribution p(k) reached a peak at a specific value, and then back down. Besides, with the increase of layer α, the clustering coefficients presented a tendency to exponential decay. Based on the influenza transmission experiments, the main infected areas were concluded when considering different factors. Moreover, partition of passenger sources was found to impact a lot in departure, while social relation structure imposed a great influence in arrival. Besides, immunity difference exerted no obvious effect on the spread of influenza in the transmission process both in departure and arrival. CONCLUSIONS The proposed method is efficient to reproduce the evolution process of influenza transmission, and exhibits various roles of each factor in different processes, also better reflects the effect of passenger topological character on influenza spread. It contributes to proposing effective influenza measures by airport relevant department and improving the efficiency and ability of epidemic prevention on the public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Quan Shao
- College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Jiangjun St., Nanjing, 211106 China
| | - Meng Jia
- College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 29 Jiangjun St., Nanjing, 211106 China
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17
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Reconstructing propagation networks with natural diversity and identifying hidden sources. Nat Commun 2014; 5:4323. [PMID: 25014310 PMCID: PMC4104449 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 134] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2013] [Accepted: 06/06/2014] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Our ability to uncover complex network structure and dynamics from data is fundamental to understanding and controlling collective dynamics in complex systems. Despite recent progress in this area, reconstructing networks with stochastic dynamical processes from limited time series remains to be an outstanding problem. Here we develop a framework based on compressed sensing to reconstruct complex networks on which stochastic spreading dynamics take place. We apply the methodology to a large number of model and real networks, finding that a full reconstruction of inhomogeneous interactions can be achieved from small amounts of polarized (binary) data, a virtue of compressed sensing. Further, we demonstrate that a hidden source that triggers the spreading process but is externally inaccessible can be ascertained and located with high confidence in the absence of direct routes of propagation from it. Our approach thus establishes a paradigm for tracing and controlling epidemic invasion and information diffusion in complex networked systems. The structure of many complex systems is usually difficult to determine. Zhesi Shen et al. adapt a signal-processing technique known as compressed sensing to reconstruct the dynamics and structure of a complex propagation network from a small amount of time series data.![]()
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Shaw MW, Pautasso M. Networks and plant disease management: concepts and applications. ANNUAL REVIEW OF PHYTOPATHOLOGY 2014; 52:477-93. [PMID: 25001454 DOI: 10.1146/annurev-phyto-102313-050229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
A network is a natural structure with which to describe many aspects of a plant pathosystem. The article seeks to set out in a nonmathematical way some of the network concepts that promise to be useful in managing plant disease. The field has been stimulated by developments designed to help understand and manage animal and human disease, and by technical infrastructures, such as the internet. It overlaps partly with landscape ecology. The study of networks has helped identify likely ways to reduce the flow of disease in traded plants, to find the best sites to monitor as warning sites for annually reinvading diseases, and to understand the fundamentals of how a pathogen spreads in different structures. A tension between the free flow of goods or species down communication channels and free flow of pathogens down the same pathways is highlighted.
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Affiliation(s)
- M W Shaw
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AR, United Kingdom;
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Wang B, Suzuki H, Aihara K. Evaluating roles of nodes in optimal allocation of vaccines with economic considerations. PLoS One 2013; 8:e70793. [PMID: 23967109 PMCID: PMC3743830 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0070793] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2013] [Accepted: 06/25/2013] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the allocation of vaccines is often constrained by limited resources, designing an economical vaccination strategy is a fundamental goal of the epidemiological modelling. In this study, with the objective of reducing costs, we determine the optimal allocation of vaccines for a general class of infectious diseases that spread mainly via contact. We use an optimization routine to identify the roles of nodes with distinct degrees as depending on the cost of treatment to that of vaccination (relative cost of treatment). The optimal allocation drives vaccination priority to medium-degree nodes at a low relative cost of treatment or to high-degree nodes at a high relative cost of treatment. According to the presented results, we may adjust the vaccination priority in the face of an endemic situation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Wang
- FIRST, Aihara Innovative Mathematical Modelling Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
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20
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Oleś K, Gudowska-Nowak E, Kleczkowski A. Efficient control of epidemics spreading on networks: balance between treatment and recovery. PLoS One 2013; 8:e63813. [PMID: 23750205 PMCID: PMC3672130 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0063813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2012] [Accepted: 04/05/2013] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
We analyse two models describing disease transmission and control on regular and small-world networks. We use simulations to find a control strategy that minimizes the total cost of an outbreak, thus balancing the costs of disease against that of the preventive treatment. The models are similar in their epidemiological part, but differ in how the removed/recovered individuals are treated. The differences in models affect choice of the strategy only for very cheap treatment and slow spreading disease. However for the combinations of parameters that are important from the epidemiological perspective (high infectiousness and expensive treatment) the models give similar results. Moreover, even where the choice of the strategy is different, the total cost spent on controlling the epidemic is very similar for both models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katarzyna Oleś
- M. Kac Complex Systems Research Center and M. Smoluchowski Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland.
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21
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Klepac P, Bjørnstad ON, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Optimizing reactive responses to outbreaks of immunizing infections: balancing case management and vaccination. PLoS One 2012; 7:e41428. [PMID: 22899996 PMCID: PMC3416818 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041428] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2012] [Accepted: 06/26/2012] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
For vaccine-preventable infections, immunization generally needs to be supplemented by palliative care of individuals missed by the vaccination. Costs and availability of vaccine doses and palliative care vary by disease and by region. In many situations, resources for delivery of palliative care are independent of resources required for vaccination; however we also need to consider the conservative scenario where there is some trade-off between efforts, which is of potential relevance for resource-poor settings. We formulate an SEIR model that includes those two control strategies – vaccination and palliative care. We consider their relative merit and optimal allocation in the context of a highly efficacious vaccine, and under the assumption that palliative care may reduce transmission. We investigate the utility of a range of mixed or pure strategies that can be implemented after an epidemic has started, and look for rule-of-thumb principles of how best to reduce the burden of disease during an acute outbreak over a spectrum of vaccine-preventable infections. Intuitively, we expect the best strategy to initially focus on vaccination, and enhanced palliative care after the infection has peaked, but a number of plausible realistic constraints for control result in important qualifications on the intervention strategy. The time in the epidemic when one should switch strategy depends sensitively on the relative cost of vaccine to palliative care, the available budget, and . Crucially, outbreak response vaccination may be more effective in managing low- diseases, while high scenarios enhance the importance of routine vaccination and case management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Petra Klepac
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America.
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Oleś K, Gudowska-Nowak E, Kleczkowski A. Understanding disease control: influence of epidemiological and economic factors. PLoS One 2012; 7:e36026. [PMID: 22590517 PMCID: PMC3348908 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0036026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2011] [Accepted: 03/26/2012] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
We present a model of disease transmission on a regular and small world network and compare different control options. Comparison is based on a total cost of epidemic, including cost of palliative treatment of ill individuals and preventive cost aimed at vaccination or culling of susceptible individuals. Disease is characterized by pre-symptomatic phase, which makes detection and control difficult. Three general strategies emerge: global preventive treatment, local treatment within a neighborhood of certain size and only palliative treatment with no prevention. While the choice between the strategies depends on a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatment, the details of the local strategy and, in particular, the size of the optimal treatment neighborhood depend on the epidemiological factors. The required extent of prevention is proportional to the size of the infection neighborhood, but depends on time till detection and time till treatment in a non-nonlinear (power) law. The optimal size of control neighborhood is also highly sensitive to the relative cost, particularly for inefficient detection and control application. These results have important consequences for design of prevention strategies aiming at emerging diseases for which parameters are not nessecerly known in advance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katarzyna Oleś
- M Kac Complex Systems Research Center and M. Smoluchowski Institute of Physics, Jagiellonian University, Kraków, Poland.
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Klepac P, Laxminarayan R, Grenfell BT. Synthesizing epidemiological and economic optima for control of immunizing infections. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2011; 108:14366-70. [PMID: 21825129 PMCID: PMC3161560 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1101694108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Epidemic theory predicts that the vaccination threshold required to interrupt local transmission of an immunizing infection like measles depends only on the basic reproductive number and hence transmission rates. When the search for optimal strategies is expanded to incorporate economic constraints, the optimum for disease control in a single population is determined by relative costs of infection and control, rather than transmission rates. Adding a spatial dimension, which precludes local elimination unless it can be achieved globally, can reduce or increase optimal vaccination levels depending on the balance of costs and benefits. For weakly coupled populations, local optimal strategies agree with the global cost-effective strategy; however, asymmetries in costs can lead to divergent control optima in more strongly coupled systems--in particular, strong regional differences in costs of vaccination can preclude local elimination even when elimination is locally optimal. Under certain conditions, it is locally optimal to share vaccination resources with other populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Petra Klepac
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton Environmental Institute, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
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