Timing and severity of immunizing diseases in rabbits is controlled by seasonal matching of host and pathogen dynamics

Projecting the impact of an ebola virus outbreak on endangered mountain gorillas

Ebola virus is highly lethal for great apes. Estimated mortality rates up to 98% have reduced the global gorilla population by approximately one-third. As mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) are endangered, with just over 1000 individuals remaining in the world, an outbreak could decimate the population. Simulation modeling was used to evaluate the potential impact of an Ebola virus outbreak on the mountain gorilla population of the Virunga Massif. Findings indicate that estimated contact rates among gorilla groups are high enough to allow rapid spread of Ebola, with less than 20% of the population projected to survive at 100 days post-infection of just one gorilla. Despite increasing survival with vaccination, no modeled vaccination strategy prevented widespread infection. However, the model projected that survival rates greater than 50% could be achieved by vaccinating at least half the habituated gorillas within 3 weeks of the first infectious individual.

Social interactions of juvenile rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and their potential role in lagovirus transmission

Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease Virus (RHDV), which is a calicivirus, is used as a biocontrol agent to suppress European wild rabbit populations in Australia. The transmission of RHDV can be influenced by social interactions of rabbits; however, there is a paucity of this knowledge about juvenile rabbits and the roles they may play in the transmission of RHDV. We aimed to quantify the social interactions of juvenile (< 900 g) and adult (> 1200 g) rabbits in a locally abundant population in the Central Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. Twenty-six juvenile and 16 adult rabbits were fitted with VHF proximity loggers to monitor intra- and inter-group pairings. Use of multiple warrens by these rabbits was investigated using VHF base stations at nine warrens and on foot with a hand-held Yagi antenna. Juvenile rabbits were strongly interconnected with both juveniles and adults within and outside their warren of capture, and almost all juveniles were well-connected to other individuals within their own social group. Inter-group pairings were infrequent and fleeting between adults. Both juvenile and adult rabbits used multiple warrens. However, visits to warrens outside their warren of capture, particularly those within 50 m, were more common and longer in duration in juveniles than in adults. The high connectivity of juveniles within and between warrens in close proximity increases potential pathogen exchange between warrens. Therefore, juvenile rabbits could be of greater importance in lagovirus transmission than adult rabbits. The strength of juvenile rabbit inter- and intra-group pairings, and their tendency to use multiple warrens, highlight their potential to act as ‘superspreaders’ of both infection and immunity for lagoviruses and other pathogens with similar lifecycles. Confirmation of this potential is required through examination of disease progress and rabbit age-related immune responses during outbreaks.

Monitoring of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus in European Wild Rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) Populations by PCR Analysis of Rabbit Fecal Pellets

European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) are affected by rabbit hemorrhagic disease (RHD), which is caused by a lagovirus responsible for significant mortality in European wild rabbit populations. Our study aimed to evaluate the potential for detecting viral RNA by duplex real-time PCR in rabbit fecal pellets collected in the field, as a noninvasive method to monitor RHD virus circulation in wild populations. To do this, monthly discoveries of rabbits that died from RHD and detection of viral RNA in fecal pellets were recorded in two enclosed populations of wild rabbits throughout a year. The results suggested a low performance of this procedure to monitor viral infection incidence and a weak concordance with monthly discoveries of rabbits that died from RHD. This poor association was probably due to the low amount of viral RNA in feces, the prolonged time of excretion after infection, and that the number of rabbits found dead from RHD does not necessarily correlate with RHD incidence. Nevertheless, this procedure may be a complementary noninvasive method to assist in determining the presence of RHD viruses in populations. Additional research is needed to determine the suitability of this methodology to perform epidemiologic surveys on wild populations of European rabbits and, especially, other European or North American lagomorph species affected by lagoviruses.

Viruses for Landscape-Scale Therapy: Biological Control of Rabbits in Australia

Viral diseases, whether of animals or humans, are normally considered as problems to be managed. However, in Australia, two viruses have been used as landscape-scale therapeutics to control European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), the preeminent invasive vertebrate pest species. Rabbits have caused major environmental and agricultural losses and contributed to extinction of native species. It was not until the introduction of Myxoma virus that effective control of this pest was obtained at a continental scale. Subsequent coevolution of rabbit and virus saw a gradual reduction in the effectiveness of biological control that was partially ameliorated by the introduction of the European rabbit flea to act as an additional vector for the virus. In 1995, a completely different virus, Rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), escaped from testing and spread through the Australian rabbit population and again significantly reduced rabbit numbers and environmental impacts. The evolutionary pressures on this virus appear to be producing quite different outcomes to those that occurred with myxoma virus and the emergence and invasion of a novel genotype of RHDV in 2014 have further augmented control. Molecular studies on myxoma virus have demonstrated multiple proteins that manipulate the host innate and adaptive immune response; however the molecular basis of virus attenuation and reversion to virulence are not yet understood.

Characterization of the Maternally Derived Antibody Immunity against Rhdv-2 after Administration in Breeding Does of an Inactivated Vaccine

Inactivated strain-specific vaccines have been successfully used to control rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) caused by RHDV-2 in the rabbit industry. It is unknown whether and how vaccination of breeding does contributed to protect the population of young susceptible rabbit kits. The present study investigates whether the immunity against RHDV-2 produced by vaccination of breeding does is transmitted to their progeny and its dynamic once inherited by kits. For this purpose, New Zealand female rabbits of 8–9 weeks of age were allocated into 2 groups of 40 subjects each and bred during 6 reproductive cycles. The first experimental group was vaccinated with a commercially available inactivated vaccine against RHDV-2 whereas the second group was inoculated with PBS. Moreover, the present study was also meant to identify the mechanisms of transmission of that maternal immunity. For this reason, rabbit kits of vaccinated and non-vaccinated breeding does were cross-fostered before milk uptake. The RHDV-2 antibody response was monitored in the blood serum of breeding does and of their kits by competition ELISA (cELISA) and solid-phase ELISA (spELISA). Since it has been clearly demonstrated that cELISA positive rabbits are protected from RHD, we avoided the resorting of the challenge of the kits with RHDV-2. Results showed that RHDV-2 antibodies were inherited by kits up to one year from vaccination of breeding does. Once inherited, the maternally derived antibody response against RHDV-2 lasted at least until 28 days of life. Finally, the study also elucidated that the major contribution to the maternal derived immunity against RHDV-2 in kits was provided during gestation and probably transmitted through transplacental mechanisms although lactation provided a little contribution to it. The present study contributed to elucidate the characteristics of the maternal antibody immunity produced by vaccination and its mechanisms of transmission.

Adaptive changes in the genomes of wild rabbits after 16 years of viral epidemics

Since its introduction to control overabundant invasive European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), the highly virulent rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) has caused regular annual disease outbreaks in Australian rabbit populations. Although initially reducing rabbit abundance by 60%, continent-wide, experimental evidence has since indicated increased genetic resistance in wild rabbits that have experienced RHDV-driven selection. To identify genetic adaptations, which explain the increased resistance to this biocontrol virus, we investigated genome-wide SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) allele frequency changes in a South Australian rabbit population that was sampled in 1996 (pre-RHD genomes) and after 16 years of RHDV outbreaks. We identified several SNPs with changed allele frequencies within or close to genes potentially important for increased RHD resistance. The identified genes are known to be involved in virus infections and immune reactions or had previously been identified as being differentially expressed in healthy versus acutely RHDV-infected rabbits. Furthermore, we show in a simulation study that the allele/genotype frequency changes cannot be explained by drift alone and that several candidate genes had also been identified as being associated with surviving RHD in a different Australian rabbit population. Our unique data set allowed us to identify candidate genes for RHDV resistance that have evolved under natural conditions, and over a time span that would not have been feasible in an experimental setting. Moreover, it provides a rare example of host genetic adaptations to virus-driven selection in response to a suddenly emerging infectious disease.

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.

Support for viral persistence in bats from age-specific serology and models of maternal immunity

Spatiotemporally-localised prediction of virus emergence from wildlife requires focused studies on the ecology and immunology of reservoir hosts in their native habitat. Reliable predictions from mathematical models remain difficult in most systems due to a dearth of appropriate empirical data. Our goal was to study the circulation and immune dynamics of zoonotic viruses in bat populations and investigate the effects of maternally-derived and acquired immunity on viral persistence. Using rare age-specific serological data from wild-caught Eidolon helvum fruit bats as a case study, we estimated viral transmission parameters for a stochastic infection model. We estimated mean durations of around 6 months for maternally-derived immunity to Lagos bat virus and African henipavirus, whereas acquired immunity was long-lasting (Lagos bat virus: mean 12 years, henipavirus: mean 4 years). In the presence of a seasonal birth pulse, the effect of maternally-derived immunity on virus persistence within modelled bat populations was highly dependent on transmission characteristics. To explain previous reports of viral persistence within small natural and captive E. helvum populations, we hypothesise that some bats must experience prolonged infectious periods or within-host latency. By further elucidating plausible mechanisms of virus persistence in bat populations, we contribute to guidance of future field studies.

How complex should models be? Comparing correlative and mechanistic range dynamics models

Criticism has been levelled at climate-change-induced forecasts of species range shifts that do not account explicitly for complex population dynamics. The relative importance of such dynamics under climate change is, however, undetermined because direct tests comparing the performance of demographic models vs. simpler ecological niche models are still lacking owing to difficulties in evaluating forecasts using real-world data. We provide the first comparison of the skill of coupled ecological-niche-population models and ecological niche models in predicting documented shifts in the ranges of 20 British breeding bird species across a 40-year period. Forecasts from models calibrated with data centred on 1970 were evaluated using data centred on 2010. We found that more complex coupled ecological-niche-population models (that account for dispersal and metapopulation dynamics) tend to have higher predictive accuracy in forecasting species range shifts than structurally simpler models that only account for variation in climate. However, these better forecasts are achieved only if ecological responses to climate change are simulated without static snapshots of historic land use, taken at a single point in time. In contrast, including both static land use and dynamic climate variables in simpler ecological niche models improve forecasts of observed range shifts. Despite being less skilful at predicting range changes at the grid-cell level, ecological niche models do as well, or better, than more complex models at predicting the magnitude of relative change in range size. Therefore, ecological niche models can provide a reasonable first approximation of the magnitude of species' potential range shifts, especially when more detailed data are lacking on dispersal dynamics, demographic processes underpinning population performance, and change in land cover.

Infection of the fittest: devil facial tumour disease has greatest effect on individuals with highest reproductive output

Emerging infectious diseases rarely affect all members of a population equally and determining how individuals' susceptibility to infection is related to other components of their fitness is critical to understanding disease impacts at a population level and for predicting evolutionary trajectories. We introduce a novel state-space model framework to investigate survival and fecundity of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) affected by a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease. We show that those devils that become host to tumours have otherwise greater fitness, with higher survival and fecundity rates prior to disease-induced death than non-host individuals that do not become infected, although high tumour loads lead to high mortality. Our finding that individuals with the greatest reproductive value are those most affected by the cancer demonstrates the need to quantify both survival and fecundity in context of disease progression for understanding the impact of disease on wildlife populations.

A Landscape Approach to Invasive Species Management

Biological invasions are not only a major threat to biodiversity, they also have major impacts on local economies and agricultural production systems. Once established, the connection of local populations into metapopulation networks facilitates dispersal at landscape scales, generating spatial dynamics that can impact the outcome of pest-management actions. Much planning goes into landscape-scale invasive species management. However, effective management requires knowledge on the interplay between metapopulation network topology and management actions. We address this knowledge gap using simulation models to explore the effectiveness of two common management strategies, applied across different extents and according to different rules for selecting target localities in metapopulations with different network topologies. These management actions are: (i) general population reduction, and (ii) reduction of an obligate resource. The reduction of an obligate resource was generally more efficient than population reduction for depleting populations at landscape scales. However, the way in which local populations are selected for management is important when the topology of the metapopulation is heterogeneous in terms of the distribution of connections among local populations. We tested these broad findings using real-world scenarios of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) infesting agricultural landscapes in Western Australia. Although management strategies targeting central populations were more effective in simulated heterogeneous metapopulation structures, no difference was observed in real-world metapopulation structures that are highly homogeneous. In large metapopulations with high proximity and connectivity of neighbouring populations, different spatial management strategies yield similar outcomes. Directly considering spatial attributes in pest-management actions will be most important for metapopulation networks with heterogeneously distributed links. Our modelling framework provides a simple approach for identifying the best possible management strategy for invasive species based on metapopulation structure and control capacity. This information can be used by managers trying to devise efficient landscape-oriented management strategies for invasive species and can also generate insights for conservation purposes.

Environmental effects and individual body condition drive seasonal fecundity of rabbits: identifying acute and lagged processes

The reproduction of many species is determined by seasonally-driven resource supply. But it is difficult to quantify whether the fecundity is sensitive to short- or long-term exposure to environmental conditions such as rainfall that drive resource supply. Using 25 years of data on individual fecundity of European female rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus, from semiarid Australia, we investigate the role of individual body condition, rainfall and temperature as drivers of seasonal and long-term and population-level changes in fecundity (breeding probability, ovulation rate, embryo survival). We built distributed lag models in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for both immediate and time-lagged effects of climate and other environmental drivers, and possible shifts in reproduction over consecutive seasons. We show that rainfall during summer, when rabbits typically breed only rarely, increased breeding probability immediately and with time lags of up to 10 weeks. However, an earlier onset of the yearly breeding period did not result in more overall reproductive output. Better body condition was associated with an earlier onset of breeding and higher embryo survival. Breeding probability in the main breeding season declined with increased breeding activity in the preceding season and only individuals in good body condition were able to breed late in the season. Higher temperatures reduce breeding success across seasons. We conclude that a better understanding of seasonal dynamics and plasticity (and their interplay) in reproduction will provide crucial insights into how lagomorphs are likely to respond and potentially adapt to the influence of future climate and other environmental change.

Host immunity shapes the impact of climate changes on the dynamics of parasite infections

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infections, and yet host immunity can also influence the impact of warming on host-parasite interactions and mitigate the long-term effects. We used time-series data from two helminth species of a natural herbivore and investigated the contribution of climate change and immunity on the long-term and seasonal dynamics of infection. We provide evidence that climate warming increases the availability of infective stages of both helminth species and the proportional increase in the intensity of infection for the helminth not regulated by immunity. In contrast, there is no significant long-term positive trend in the intensity for the immune-controlled helminth, as immunity reduces the net outcome of climate on parasite dynamics. Even so, hosts experienced higher infections of this helminth at an earlier age during critical months in the warmer years. Immunity can alleviate the expected long-term effect of climate on parasite infections but can also shift the seasonal peak of infection toward the younger individuals.

Models for managing wildlife disease

Modelling wildlife disease poses some unique challenges. Wildlife disease systems are data poor in comparison with human or livestock disease systems, and the impact of disease on population size is often the key question of interest. This review concentrates specifically on the application of dynamic models to evaluate and guide management strategies. Models have proved useful particularly in two areas. They have been widely used to evaluate vaccination strategies, both for protecting endangered species and for preventing spillover from wildlife to humans or livestock. They have also been extensively used to evaluate culling strategies, again both for diseases in species of conservation interest and to prevent spillover. In addition, models are important to evaluate the potential of parasites and pathogens as biological control agents. The review concludes by identifying some key research gaps, which are further development of models of macroparasites, deciding on appropriate levels of complexity, modelling genetic management and connecting models to data.