Reproductive potential predicts longevity of female Mediterranean fruitflies

Daily activity profiles over the lifespan of female medflies as biomarkers of aging and longevity

The relationship between the early-age activity of Mediterranean fruit flies (medflies) or other fruit flies and their lifespan has not been much studied, in contrast to the connections between lifespan and diet, sexual signaling, and reproduction. The objective of this study is to assess intra-day and day-to-day activity profiles of female Mediterranean fruit flies and their role as biomarker of longevity as well as to explore the relationships between these activity profiles, diet, and age-at-death throughout the lifespan. We use advanced statistical methods from functional data analysis (FDA). Three distinct patterns of activity variations in early-age activity profiles can be distinguished. A low-caloric diet is associated with a delayed activity peak, while a high-caloric diet is linked with an earlier activity peak. We find that age-at-death of individual medflies is connected to their activity profiles in early life. An increased risk of mortality is associated with increased activity in early age, as well as with a higher contrast between daytime and nighttime activity. Conversely, medflies are more likely to have a longer lifespan when they are fed a medium-caloric diet and when their daily activity is more evenly distributed across the early-age span and between daytime and nighttime. The before-death activity profile of medflies displays two characteristic before-death patterns, where one pattern is characterized by slowly declining daily activity and the other by a sudden decline in activity that is followed by death.

Daily Activity Profiles over the Lifespan of Female Medflies as Biomarkers of Aging and Longevity

The relationship between the early age activity of Mediterranean fruit flies or other fruit flies and their lifespan has not been much studied, in contrast to the connections between lifespan and diet, sexual signaling and reproduction. The objective of this study is to assess intraday and day-to-day activity profiles of female Mediterranean fruit flies and their role as biomarker of longevity as well as to explore the relationships between these activity profiles, diet and age-at-death throughout the lifespan. Three distinct patterns of activity variations in early age activity profiles can be distinguished. A low-caloric diet is associated with a delayed activity peak, while a high-caloric diet is linked with an earlier activity peak. We find that age-at-death of individual medflies is connected to their activity profiles in early life. An increased risk of mortality is associated with increased activity in early age, as well as with a higher contrast between daytime and nighttime activity. Conversely, medflies are more likely to have a longer lifespan when they are fed a medium caloric diet and when their daily activity is more evenly distributed across the early age span and between daytime and nighttime. The before-death activity profile of medflies displays two characteristic before-death patterns, where one pattern is characterized by slowly declining daily activity and the other by a sudden decline in activity that is followed by death.

Electronic recording of lifetime locomotory activity patterns of adult medflies

Age-specific and diurnal patterns of locomotory activity, can be considered as biomarkers of aging in model organisms and vary across the lifetime of individuals. Τhe Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata, is a commonly used model-species in studies regarding demography and aging. In the present study, we introduce a modification of the automated locomotory activity electronic device LAM25system (Locomotory Activity Monitor)–Trikinetics, commonly used in short time studies, to record the daily locomotory activity patterns of adult medflies throughout the life. Additionally, fecundity rates and survival of adult medflies were recorded. Male and female medflies were kept in the system tubes and had access to an agar-based gel diet, which provided water and nutrients. The locomotory activity was recorded at every minute by three monitors in the electronic device. The locomotory activity of females was higher than that of males across the different ages. For both sexes locomotory rates were high during the first 20 days of the adult life and decreased in older ages. The activity of males was high in the morning and late afternoon hours, while that of females was constantly high throughout the photophase. Negligible locomotory activity was recorded for both sexes during the nighttime. Males outlived females. Fecundity of females was higher in younger ages. Our results support the adoption of LAM25system in studies addressing aging of insects using medfly as a model organism.

Amino acid quality modifies the quantitative availability of protein for reproduction in Drosophila melanogaster

Diet composition, especially the relative abundance of key macronutrients, is well known to affect animal wellbeing by changing reproductive output, metabolism and length of life. However, less attention has been paid to the ways the quality of these nutrients modify these macronutrient interactions. Nutritional Geometry can be used to model the effects of multiple dietary components on life-history traits and to compare these responses when diet quality is varied. Previous studies have shown that dietary protein quality can be increased for egg production in Drosophila melanogaster by matching the dietary amino acid proportions to the balance of amino acids used by the sum of proteins in the fly's in silico translated exome. Here, we show that dietary protein quality dramatically alters the effect of protein quantity on female reproduction across a broad range of diets varying in both protein and carbohydrate concentrations. These data show that when sources of ingredients vary, their relative value to the consumer can vastly differ and yield very different physiological outcomes. Such variations could be particularly important for meta analyses that look to draw generalisable conclusions from diverse studies.

Patterns of Remating Behaviour in Ceratitis (Diptera: Tephritidae) Species of Varying Lifespan

Trade-offs between life-history traits offset the energetic costs of maintaining fitness in complex environments. Ceratitis species have been recorded to have long lifespans, which may have evolved in response to seasonal resource fluctuation. It is thus likely that reproductive patterns have evolved concomitantly as part of the trade-off between lifespan and reproduction. In this study, we investigated how reproductive patterns differ between Ceratitis cosyra (Walker) and Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann; Diptera: Tephritidae), two species with different average and maximum lifespans. Females of both species were mated and patterns of female survival, fecundity, remating and sperm storage were tested. Ceratitis cosyra had a higher rate of survival and a lower fecundity when compared with the shorter-lived C. capitata, suggesting that both species exhibit a trade-off between lifespan and reproduction. Both species showed a similar and consistent willingness to remate, despite declines in sperm storage, suggesting that sperm alone does not fully inhibit remating. As expected, C. cosyra transferred high numbers of sperm during the first mating. However, sperm stores declined unexpectedly by 14 days. This indicates that males might transfer large ejaculates as a nuptial gift, that females then later degrade as a source of nutrients. Large declines in sperm storage may also indicate that females discard excess sperm stores due to the toxicity involved with storing sperm. These results do not suggest that patterns of sperm storage and remating align with lifespan and resource seasonality in these species, but a wider range of species needs to be assessed to better understand variation in Ceratitis mating systems.

The interrelationship between female reproductive aging and survival

The link between survival and reproductive function is demonstrated across many species and is under both long-term evolutionary pressures and short-term environmental pressures. Loss of reproductive function is common in mammals and is strongly correlated with increased rates of disease in both males and females. However, the reproduction-associated change in disease rates is more abrupt and more severe in women, who benefit from a significant health advantage over men until the age of menopause. Young women with early ovarian failure also suffer from increased disease risks, further supporting the role of ovarian function in female health. Contemporary experiments where the influence of young ovarian tissue has been restored in post-reproductive-aged females with surgical manipulation were found to increase survival significantly. In these experiments, young, intact ovaries were used to replace the aged ovaries of females that had already reached reproductive cessation. As has been seen previously in primitive species, when the young mammalian ovaries were depleted of germ cells prior to transplantation to the post-reproductive female, survival was increased even further than with germ cell-containing young ovaries. Thus, extending reproductive potential significantly increases survival and appears to be germ cell and ovarian hormone-independent. The current review will discuss historical and contemporary observations and theories that support the link between reproduction and survival and provide hope for future clinical applications to decrease menopause-associated increases in disease risks.

Distinctive egg-laying patterns in terminal versus non-terminal periods in three fruit fly species

The specific objective of this study was to use a logistic regression model for determining the degree to which egg laying patterns of individual females at the end of life (i.e., terminal segments) in each of three different fruit fly species could be distinguished from the egg-laying patterns over a similar period in midlife (i.e., non-terminal segments). Extracting data from large-scale databases for 11-day terminal and 11-day non-terminal segments in the vinegar fly (Drosophila melanogaster), the Mexican fruit fly (Anastrepha ludens) and the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) and organizing the model's results in a 2 × 2 contingency table, we found that: (1) daily egg-laying patterns in fruit flies can be used to distinguish terminal from non-terminal periods; (2) the overall performance metrics such as precision, accuracy, false positives and true negatives depended heavily on species; (3) differentiating between terminal and non-terminal segments is more difficult when flies die at younger ages; and (4) among the three species the best performing metrics including accuracy and precision were those produced using data on D. melanogaster. We conclude that, although the reliability of the prediction of whether a segment occurred at the end of life is relatively high for most species, it does not follow precisely predicting remaining life will also be highly reliable since classifying an end of life period is a fundamentally different challenge than is predicting an exact day of death.

The Resistance of Drosophila melanogaster to Oxidative, Genotoxic, Proteotoxic, Osmotic Stress, Infection, and Starvation Depends on Age According to the Stress Factor

We studied how aging affects the ability of Drosophila melanogaster to tolerate various types of stress factors. Data were obtained on the resistance of D. melanogaster to oxidative and genotoxic (separately paraquat, Fe³⁺, Cu²⁺, and Zn²⁺ ions), proteotoxic (hyperthermia, Cd²⁺ ions), and osmotic (NaCl) stresses, starvation, and infection with the pathological Beauveria bassiana fungus at different ages. In all cases, we observed a strong negative correlation between age and stress tolerance. The largest change in the age-dependent decline in survival occurred under oxidative and osmotic stress. In most experiments, we observed that young Drosophila females have higher stress resistance than males. We checked whether it is possible to accurately assess the biological age of D. melanogaster based on an assessment of stress tolerance. We have proposed a new approach for assessing a biological age of D. melanogaster using a two-parameter survival curve model. For the model, we used an algorithm that evaluated the quality of age prediction for different age and gender groups. The best predictions were obtained for females who were exposed to CdCl₂ and ZnCl₂ with an average error of 0.32 days and 0.36 days, respectively. For males, the best results were observed for paraquat and NaCl with an average error of 0.61 and 0.68 days, respectively. The average accuracy for all stresses in our model was 1.73 days.

Predicting death by the loss of intestinal function

The ability to predict when an individual will die can be extremely useful for many research problems in aging. A technique for predicting death in the model organism, Drosophila melanogaster, has been proposed which relies on an increase in the permeability of the fly intestinal system, allowing dyes from the diet to permeate the body of the fly shortly before death. In this study we sought to verify this claim in a large cohort study using different populations of D. melanogaster and different dyes. We found that only about 50% of the individuals showed a visible distribution of dye before death. This number did not vary substantially with the dye used. Most flies that did turn a blue color before death did so within 24 hours of death. There was also a measurable effect of the dye on the fly mean longevity. These results would tend to limit the utility of this method depending on the application the method was intended for.

The death spiral: predicting death in Drosophila cohorts

Drosophila research has identified a new feature of aging that has been called the death spiral. The death spiral is a period prior to death during which there is a decline in life-history characters, such as fecundity, as well as physiological characters. First, we review the data from the Drosophila and medfly literature that suggest the existence of death spirals. Second, we re-analyze five cases with such data from four laboratories using a generalized statistical framework, a re-analysis that strengthens the case for the salience of the death spiral phenomenon. Third, we raise the issue whether death spirals need to be taken into account in the analysis of functional characters over age, in aging research with model species as well as human data.

The Retired Fly: Detecting Life History Transition in Individual Drosophila melanogaster Females

Life history observations at the level of individual model organisms are relatively scarce, but highly informative. Here I analyze published data on the survival and lifetime fecundity of 3,971 individually housed, mated Drosophila melanogaster females from nine experimental populations. Data were collected from four laboratories and include counts of over 4.6 million eggs. Individual fecundity records are dominated by zero-egg-days (ZEDs). I show that the timing of ZEDs is informative about the survival and reproduction of individual flies. The first postmaturation ZED divides adult life into two functional stages: working and retired. The working stage is characterized by relatively high levels of oviposition and survival, while the retired stage is characterized by low levels of oviposition and reduced survival. The retired stage typically lasts one quarter of the total adult life span. The age of transition varies between flies; consequently age-synchronized cohorts will generally contain a mixture of working and retired flies, possibly influencing responses to experimental treatments. ZED can be used as a nonintrusive, real-time biomarker to distinguish live flies in the prime of life from those in a terminal state.

A single hot event stimulates adult performance but reduces egg survival in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta

Climate warming is expected to increase the exposure of insects to hot events (involving a few hours at extreme high temperatures). These events are unlikely to cause widespread mortality but may modify population dynamics via impacting life history traits such as adult fecundity and egg hatching. These effects and their potential impact on population predictions are still largely unknown. In this study, we simulated a single hot event (maximum of 38°C lasting for 4 h) of a magnitude increasingly found under field conditions and examined its effect in the oriental fruit moth, Grapholitha molesta. This hot event had no impact on the survival of G. molesta adults, copulation periods or male longevity. However, the event increased female lifespan and the length of the oviposition period, leading to a potential increase in lifetime fecundity and suggesting hormesis. In contrast, exposure of males to this event markedly reduced the net reproductive value. Male heat treatment delayed the onset of oviposition in the females they mated with, as well as causing a decrease in the duration of oviposition period and lifetime fecundity. Both male and female stress also reduced egg hatch. Our findings of hormetic effects on female performance but concurrent detrimental effects on egg hatch suggest that hot events have unpredictable consequences on the population dynamics of this pest species with implications for likely effects associated with climate warming.

Hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis homeostasis predicts longevity

The reproductive-cell cycle theory of aging posits that reproductive hormone changes associated with menopause and andropause drive senescence via altered cell cycle signaling. Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (n = 5,034), we analyzed the relationship between longevity and menopause, including other factors that impact "ovarian lifespan" such as births, oophorectomy, and hormone replacement therapy. We found that later onset of menopause was associated with lower mortality, with and without adjusting for additional factors (years of education, smoking status, body mass index, and marital status). Each year of delayed menopause resulted in a 2.9% reduction in mortality; after including a number of additional controls, the effect was attenuated modestly but remained statistically significant (2.6% reduction in mortality). We also found that no other reproductive parameters assessed added to the prediction of longevity, suggesting that reproductive factors shown to affect longevity elsewhere may be mediated by age of menopause. Thus, surgical and natural menopause at age 40, for example, resulted in identical survival probabilities. These results support the maintenance of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis in homeostasis in prolonging human longevity, which provides a coherent framework for understanding the relationship between reproduction and longevity.

Foraging fidelity as a recipe for a long life: foraging strategy and longevity in male Southern Elephant Seals

Identifying individual factors affecting life-span has long been of interest for biologists and demographers: how do some individuals manage to dodge the forces of mortality when the vast majority does not? Answering this question is not straightforward, partly because of the arduous task of accurately estimating longevity in wild animals, and of the statistical difficulties in correlating time-varying ecological covariables with a single number (time-to-event). Here we investigated the relationship between foraging strategy and life-span in an elusive and large marine predator: the Southern Elephant Seal (Mirounga leonina). Using teeth recovered from dead males on îles Kerguelen, Southern Ocean, we first aged specimens. Then we used stable isotopic measurements of carbon (δ13C) in dentin to study the effect of foraging location on individual life-span. Using a joint change-point/survival modelling approach which enabled us to describe the ontogenetic trajectory of foraging, we unveiled how a stable foraging strategy developed early in life positively covaried with longevity in male Southern Elephant Seals. Coupled with an appropriate statistical analysis, stable isotopes have the potential to tackle ecological questions of long standing interest but whose answer has been hampered by logistic constraints.

Predictive comparison of joint longitudinal-survival modeling: a case study illustrating competing approaches

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has received extraordinary attention in the statistics literature recently, with models and methods becoming increasingly more complex. Most of these approaches pair a proportional hazards survival with longitudinal trajectory modeling through parametric or nonparametric specifications. In this paper we closely examine one data set previously analyzed using a two parameter parametric model for Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) egg-laying trajectories paired with accelerated failure time and proportional hazards survival models. We consider parametric and nonparametric versions of these two models, as well as a proportional odds rate model paired with a wide variety of longitudinal trajectory assumptions reflecting the types of analyses seen in the literature. In addition to developing novel nonparametric Bayesian methods for joint models, we emphasize the importance of model selection from among joint and non joint models. The default in the literature is to omit at the outset non joint models from consideration. For the medfly data, a predictive diagnostic criterion suggests that both the choice of survival model and longitudinal assumptions can grossly affect model adequacy and prediction. Specifically for these data, the simple joint model used in by Tseng et al. (Biometrika 92:587-603, 2005) and models with much more flexibility in their longitudinal components are predictively outperformed by simpler analyses. This case study underscores the need for data analysts to compare on the basis of predictive performance different joint models and to include non joint models in the pool of candidates under consideration.

Reproductive aging in tephritid fruit flies

The broad objective of this paper is to present an overview and synthesis of selected studies on reproduction and aging in two model tephritid fruit fly species including the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, and the Mexican fruit fly, Anastrepha ludens. We summarize the research findings from empirical studies and modeling investigations involving reproduction in the two tephritid species. At the end we identify and discuss four general principles regarding reproductive aging in tephritids including reciprocity of reproductive and aging costs, qualitative tradeoffs, plasticity of lifespan and reproduction, and life history constraints and determinacy.

Stochastic development in biologically structured population models

Variation in organismal development is ubiquitous in nature but omitted from most age- and stage-structured population models. I give a general approach for formulating and analyzing its role in density-independent population models using the framework of integral projection models. The approach allows flexible assumptions, including correlated development times among multiple life stages. I give a new Monte Carlo numerical integration approach to calculate long-term growth rate, its sensitivities, stable age-stage distributions and reproductive value. This method requires only simulations of individual life schedules, rather than iteration of full population dynamics, and has practical and theoretical appeal because it ties easily implemented simulations to numerical solution of demographic equations. I show that stochastic development is demographically important using two examples. For a desert cactus, many stochastic development models, with independent or correlated stage durations, can generate the same stable stage distribution (SSD) as the real data, but stable age-within-stage distributions and sensitivities of growth rate to demographic rates differ greatly among stochastic development scenarios. For Mediterranean fruit flies, empirical variation in maturation time has a large impact on population growth. The systematic model formulation and analysis approach given here should make consideration of variable development models widely accessible and readily extendible.

Reproduction is adapted to survival characteristics across geographically isolated medfly populations

We propose the hypothesis that individual longitudinal trajectories of fertility are closely coupled to varying survival schedules across geographically isolated populations of the same species, in such a way that peak reproduction takes place before substantial increases in mortality are observed. This reproductive adaptation hypothesis is investigated for medflies through a statistical analysis of biodemographic data that were obtained for female medflies from six geographically far apart regions. The following results support the hypothesis: (i) both survival and reproductive schedules differ substantially between these populations, where early peaks and subsequently fast declining reproduction are observed for short-lived and protracted reproductive schedules for long-lived flies; (ii) when statistically adjusting reproduction for the observed differences in survival, the differences in reproductive schedules largely vanish, and thus the observed differences in fertility across the populations can be explained by differences in population-specific longevity; and (iii) specific survival patterns of the medflies belonging to a specific population predict the individual reproductive schedule for the flies in this population. The analysis is based on innovative statistical tools from functional data analysis. Our findings are consistent with an adaptive mechanism whereby trajectories of fertility evolve in response to specific constraints inherent in the population survival schedules.

Transplantation of young ovaries to old mice increased life span in transplant recipients

Previously we reported that prepubertally ovariectomized mice that received young transplanted ovaries at a postreproductive age showed a 40% increase in life expectancy. To study this phenomenon in greater detail, 11-month-old ovariectomized and ovary-intact CBA/J mice underwent ovarian transplantation with 60-day-old ovaries or a sham surgery. Results from observations on transplant recipients in the current study extended our previous results. Whereas intact control mice lived an average of 726 days, transplant recipients lived an average of 770 days (i.e., 780 days for intact recipients and 757 days for ovariectomized recipients). If intact recipients had ceased reproductive cycling by the time of transplant, we observed a further increase in mean life span to 811 days. These results demonstrate that young ovaries enhanced longevity when transplanted to old mice and that ovarian status, examined by means of ovariectomy and ovarian transplantation, clearly influenced the potential of young transplanted ovaries to positively impact longevity.

Adult diet affects lifespan and reproduction of the fruit-feeding butterfly Charaxes fulvescens

Fruit-feeding butterflies are among the longest lived Lepidoptera. While the use of pollen-derived amino acids by Heliconius butterflies has been interpreted as important for the evolution of extended lifespans, very little is known about the life-history consequences of frugivory. This issue is addressed by investigating effects of four adult diets (sugar, sugar with amino acids, banana, and moistened banana) on lifespan and reproduction in the fruit-feeding butterfly Charaxes fulvescens Aurivillius (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae). Female butterflies were collected from Kibale National Park, Uganda, and kept individually in cages near their natural habitat and data were collected on lifespan, oviposition, and hatching of eggs. Lifespan in captivity was longer for the sugar and the amino acid cohort, than for the banana cohorts. The longitudinal pattern of oviposition was erratic, with many days without oviposition and few periods with high numbers of eggs laid. Butterflies typically did not lay eggs during their 1st week in captivity and the length of the period between capture and first reproduction was significantly shorter for butterflies fed moistened banana. The length of the reproduction period (first reproduction-last reproduction in captivity) and the reproduction rate (total number of eggs/length of the reproduction period) did not differ significantly between the diet treatments. Those fed with amino acid and moistened banana had significantly higher egg hatchability than those fed with sugar and banana. We found no evidence for a lifespan cost of reproduction. Our results show that (1) female C. fulvescens can use amino acids in their diet for laying fertile eggs, (2) more wing-wear does correlate with lower survival in captivity (indicating aging in the wild), but not with intensity of reproduction (providing no evidence for reproductive aging), and (3) fruit-feeding butterflies may be dietary restricted in the field.

Amino acid sources in the adult diet do not affect life span and fecundity in the fruit-feeding butterfly Bicyclus anynana

1. In tropical forests, the adults of many butterfly species feed on fruits rather than nectar from flowers and have long life spans. Rotting fruit and nectar differ from each other in many respects, including sources of amino acids and microbial life. If amino acids in the adult diet can be used for reproduction, this may have facilitated the evolution of extended life spans in this guild.2. This issue was addressed by investigating effects of banana, yeast, and amino acids in the adult diet of the fruit-feeding butterfly Bicyclus anynana (Lepidoptera) on longevity and female reproductive output in two experiments.3. Results showed that in the fruit-feeding butterfly B. anynana: (i) banana juice, but not sliced banana or added amino acids extend life span compared with a sugar solution of similar composition; (ii) compared with this sugar solution, other cohorts (banana juice-amino acid enriched) did not have significantly higher reproductive outputs; (iii) yeast does not represent a valuable source of nutrients; (iv) caloric restriction may cause decreased life span and rate of reproduction; and (v) increased rates of reproduction have a life span cost.

Demographic analysis of continuous-time life-history models

I present a computational approach to calculate the population growth rate, its sensitivity to life-history parameters and associated statistics like the stable population distribution and the reproductive value for exponentially growing populations, in which individual life history is described as a continuous development through time. The method is generally applicable to analyse population growth and performance for a wide range of individual life-history models, including cases in which the population consists of different types of individuals or in which the environment is fluctuating periodically. It complements comparable methods developed for discrete-time dynamics modelled with matrix or integral projection models. The basic idea behind the method is to use Lotka's integral equation for the population growth rate and compute the integral occurring in that equation by integrating an ordinary differential equation, analogous to recently derived methods to compute steady-states of physiologically structured population models. I illustrate application of the method using a number of published life-history models.

Distinct biological epochs in the reproductive life of female Drosophila melanogaster

Mating alters the physiology and behavior of female Drosophila melanogaster resulting in a surge of egg laying, a decrease in receptivity to other males, and a decrease in life span. Here, we show striking differences in patterns of Drosophila egg laying and mortality rate dependent upon mating history. Our data reveal previously unreported epochs in the reproductive life of females: optimal, vulnerable and declining-terminal. During the optimal period, mating induces females to respond with a surge in egg laying and has a reversible effect on mortality rate. In contrast, during the vulnerable period, mating does not induce females to respond with a surge in egg laying and causes an irreversible increase in mortality rate. The terminal period was always observed several days before death, irrespective of the chronological age, and is marked by sharp reductions in egg laying. The presence of these distinctive biological epochs may reflect increased female sensitivity to mating due to age-related decline.

An evolutionary heterogeneity model of late-life fecundity in Drosophila

There is now a significant body of research that establishes the deceleration of mortality rates in late life and their ultimate leveling off on a late-life plateau. Natural selection has been offered as one mechanism responsible for these plateaus. The force of natural selection should also exert such effects on female fecundity. We have already developed a model of female fecundity in late life that incorporates the general predictions of the evolutionary model. The original evolutionary model predicts a decline in fecundity from a peak in early life, followed by a plateau with non-zero fecundity in late life. However, in Drosophila there is also a well-defined decline in fecundity among dying flies, here called the "death spiral". This effect produces heterogeneity between dying and non-dying flies. Here a hybrid evolutionary heterogeneity model is developed to accommodate both the evolutionary plateau prediction and the death spiral. It is shown that this evolutionary heterogeneity model gives a much better fit to late-life fecundity data.

Behavioral trajectories as predictors in event history analysis: male calling behavior forecasts medfly longevity

A recent study on wild male Mediterranean fruit flies [Papadopoulos, N.T., Katsoyannos, B.I., Kouloussis, N.A., Carey, J.R., Müller, H.-G., Zhang, Y., 2004. High sexual signalling rates of young individuals predict extended life span in male Mediterranean fruit flies. Oecologia 138, 127-134] provided evidence that intense sexual signalling (calling behavior) is associated with longer life span. We demonstrate here an approach based on functional data analysis methodology for predicting individual remaining longevity and the distribution of remaining lifetime from individual behavioral trajectories. A key methodological concept is the time evolution of mean functions and eigenfunctions. This methodology is applied to the event history of calling behavior of male medflies. The results demonstrate complex relationships between male calling behavior and subsequent longevity that complement previous biodemographic analyses of these data. A high level of recent calling activity is found to be associated with increased remaining lifetime for an individual male fly, while calling activity at early ages plays no role for remaining longevity.

Lifelong heterogeneity in fecundity is insufficient to explain late-life fecundity plateaus in Drosophila melanogaster

Previous studies have demonstrated that fecundity, like mortality, plateaus at late ages in cohorts of Drosophila melanogaster. Although evolutionary theory can explain the decline and plateau in cohort fecundity at late ages, it is conceivable that lifelong heterogeneity in individual female fecundity is producing these plateaus. For example, consistently more fecund females may die at earlier ages, leaving only females that always laid a low number of eggs preponderant at later ages. We simulated fecundity within a cohort, assuming the two phenotypes described above, and tested these predictions by measuring age of death and age-specific fecundity for individual females from three large cohorts. We statistically tested whether there was enough lifelong heterogeneity in fecundity to produce a late-life plateau by testing whether early female fecundity could predict whether that female would live to lay eggs after the onset of the population fecundity plateau. Our results indicate that heterogeneity in fecundity is not lifelong and thus not likely to cause late-life fecundity plateaus. Because lifelong heterogeneity models for fecundity are based on the same underlying assumptions as heterogeneity models for late-life mortality rates, our test of this hypothesis is also an experimental test of lifelong heterogeneity models of late life generally.

Time-varying functional regression for predicting remaining lifetime distributions from longitudinal trajectories

A recurring objective in longitudinal studies on aging and longevity has been the investigation of the relationship between age-at-death and current values of a longitudinal covariate trajectory that quantifies reproductive or other behavioral activity. We propose a novel technique for predicting age-at-death distributions for situations where an entire covariate history is included in the predictor. The predictor trajectories up to current time are represented by time-varying functional principal component scores, which are continuously updated as time progresses and are considered to be time-varying predictor variables that are entered into a class of time-varying functional regression models that we propose. We demonstrate for biodemographic data how these methods can be applied to obtain predictions for age-at-death and estimates of remaining lifetime distributions, including estimates of quantiles and of prediction intervals for remaining lifetime. Estimates and predictions are obtained for individual subjects, based on their observed behavioral trajectories, and include a dimension-reduction step that is implemented by projecting on a single index. The proposed techniques are illustrated with data on longitudinal daily egg-laying for female medflies, predicting remaining lifetime and age-at-death distributions from individual event histories observed up to current time.

Evolution of late-life fecundity in Drosophila melanogaster

Late-life fecundity has been shown to plateau at late ages in Drosophila analogously to late-life mortality rates. In this study, we test an evolutionary theory of late life based on the declining force of natural selection that can explain the occurrence of these late-life plateaus in Drosophila. We also examine the viability of eggs laid by late-age females and test a population genetic mechanism that may be involved in the evolution of late-life fecundity: antagonistic pleiotropy. Together these experiments demonstrate that (i) fecundity plateaus at late ages, (ii) plateaus evolve according to the age at which the force of natural selection acting on fecundity reaches zero, (iii) eggs laid by females in late life are viable and (iv) antagonistic pleiotropy is involved in the evolution of late-life fecundity. This study further supports the evolutionary theory of late life based on the age-specific force of natural selection.

Individual fecundity and senescence in Drosophila and medfly

Evolutionary theory postulates that there should be a robust relationship between fecundity and longevity. Prior work has generally supported this concept, but has not shed much light on the mechanisms at play. In preceding work, we have developed and verified a mathematical model of Drosophila melanogaster female fecundity based on the analysis of empirical studies independently done by several different laboratories. Then we applied this technique to Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) populations. In this article we analyze associations between individual longevity and the parameters of individual fecundity pattern in Drosophila and medfly. We cluster both Drosophila and medfly individuals by life span and discuss the differences. It allows us to demonstrate that only one fecundity-related parameter is associated with longevity in Drosophila, whereas two such parameters can be found in medflies. This difference demonstrates different ways of aging in various Diptera species. Finally, we discuss the possible implications of this finding.

Late life: a new frontier for physiology

Late life is a distinct phase of life that occurs after the aging period and is now known to be general among aging organisms. While aging is characterized by a deterioration in survivorship and fertility, late life is characterized by the cessation of such age-related deterioration. Thus, late life presents a new and interesting area of research not only for evolutionary biology but also for physiology. In this article, we present the theoretical and experimental background to late life, as developed by evolutionary biologists and demographers. We discuss the discovery of late life and the two main theories developed to explain this phase of life: lifelong demographic heterogeneity theory and evolutionary theory based on the force of natural selection. Finally, we suggest topics for future physiological research on late life.

Biodemography of a long-lived tephritid: reproduction and longevity in a large cohort of female Mexican fruit flies, Anastrepha ludens

Age of sexual maturity, daily and lifetime reproductive rates, and life span were recorded in a laboratory cohort of Mexican fruit flies consisting of over 1100 females maintained individually. The results revealed that, relative to the medfly, the Mexfly is slower maturing (14 vs 17 days), more fecund (1400 vs 650-1100 eggs/female), and longer lived (50 vs 35 days). The results reinforced the generality of several earlier findings on the medfly including the deceleration of mortality at older ages and the weakness of the correlation between the rate of egg laying at early ages and both subsequent reproduction and remaining longevity. Discussion includes perspectives on the role of artificial selection in shaping the demographic traits of the mass-reared strain of Mexfly used in this study, as well as the overall significance of large scale biodemographic studies in understanding aging and longevity.

Systemic mechanisms of individual reproductive life history in female Medflies

This paper is the second one in a series of two papers hypothesizing and testing systemic grounds of reproductive life history in the female fruit fly. In the first paper, we analyzed mechanisms of individual fecundity scheduling and have drawn the following conclusions. Individual fecundity in female flies is endowed as a flat pattern with a steady-state period of a constant rate of egg-laying. An individual female reveals three stages in her adult life history: maturation, maturity, and senescence. The first stage is a transient period of achieving a steady state at maturity, which can be maintained until the senescence stage. Thus, an individual fecundity pattern has no maximum. The maximums observed experimentally are averaging-caused artifacts. Two natural causes of deaths exist in flies, senescence-caused ones and premature deaths, probably due to a reproductive overload. In this paper, to confirm these findings, we use individual daily scores of egg-laying in four populations of Mediterranean fruit flies. Based on fecundity scores, we divide each Medfly population into four classes, namely zero-egg, short-, medium- and long-lived egg-layers. We demonstrate that, indeed, the three above findings definitely exist in Medflies. Our procedure allows the efficient storage of individual fecundity in parametric form, with only five numbers for each fly. Finally, this protocol will allow a more precise analysis of fecundity-energy trade-offs in flies carrying appropriate longevity mutations.

How an Individual Fecundity Pattern Looks inDrosophilaand Medflies

Reproduction usually is characterized by a mean-population fecundity pattern. Such a pattern has a maximum at earlier ages and a subsequent gradual decline in egg production. It is shown that individual fecundity trajectories do not follow such a pattern. In particular, the regular individual fecundity pattern has no maximum so that experimentally observed maximums are average-related artifacts. The three-stage description of individual fecundity, which includes maturation, maturity, and reproductive senescence, is more appropriate. Data are presented for Drosophila and Mediterranean fruitfly females that clearly confirm this hypothesis. A systematic error between egg-laying scores and the regular individual pattern allows for evaluation of how close the random scores are to the pattern. The first finding of the analysis of the systematic errors is that they are consistent with the three-stage hypothesis and do not contradict the absence of the maximum in the regular individual pattern. The other finding is the existence of obvious dynamic properties of the systematic error. The slow decrease in egg-laying at the maturity stage might be the result of a cost of mating. It can also be a consequence of "structural" senescence, that is, a slow rate accumulation of oxidative damage in the gonads.

Demographic window to aging in the wild: constructing life tables and estimating survival functions from marked individuals of unknown age

Summary We address the problem of establishing a survival schedule for wild populations. A demographic key identity is established, leading to a method whereby age-specific survival and mortality can be deduced from a marked cohort life table established for individuals that are randomly sampled at unknown age and marked, with subsequent recording of time-to-death. This identity permits the construction of life tables from data where the birth date of subjects is unknown. An analogous key identity is established for the continuous case in which the survival schedule of the wild population is related to the density of the survival distribution in the marked cohort. These identities are explored for both life tables and continuous lifetime data. For the continuous case, they are implemented with statistical methods using non-parametric density estimation methods to obtain flexible estimates for the unknown survival distribution of the wild population. The analytical model provided here serves as a starting point to develop more complex models for residual demography, i.e. models for estimating survival of wild populations in which age-at-entry is unknown and using remaining information in randomly encountered individuals. This is a first step towards a broad new concept of 'expressed demographic information content of marked or captured individuals'.

What fecundity patterns indicate about aging and longevity: insights from Drosophila studies

The age pattern of fecundity is represented as a result of a superposition of two processes: the genetic fecundity program encoded in the organism's reproductive machinery and senescence of the reproductive system. Accumulation of oxidative damage produces the energy decline, which could potentially be used in reproduction. As a result, the age-declining process arises in the reproductive machinery at a critical age. We show that this mechanism is common for different species. It establishes a connection between the decline of organism vitality and reproductive senescence. We suggest a parametric description of a fecundity pattern that allows for prediction of reproductive longevity. We apply the approach to Drosophila studies to analyze the relation between fecundity and survival. We show that fecundity patterns may predict a mean life span in Drosophila under specified environmental conditions.

Age of ovary determines remaining life expectancy in old ovariectomized mice

We investigated the capacity of young ovaries, transplanted into old ovariectomized CBA mice, to improve remaining life expectancy of the hosts. Donor females were sexually mature 2-month-olds; recipients were prepubertally ovariectomized at 3 weeks and received transplants at 5, 8 or 11 months of age. Relative to ovariectomized control females, life expectancy at 11 months was increased by 60% in 11-month recipient females and by 40% relative to intact control females. Only 20% of the 11-month transplant females died in the 300-day period following ovarian transplantation, whereas nearly 65% of the ovariectomized control females died during this same period. The 11-month-old recipient females resumed oestrus and continued to cycle up to several months beyond the age of control female reproductive senescence. Across the three recipient age groups, transplantation of young ovaries increased life expectancy in proportion to the relative youth of the ovary. Our results relate to recent findings on the gonadal input upon aging in Caenorhabditis elegans and may suggest how the mammalian gonad, including that of humans, could regulate aging and determine longevity.

Environment‐dependent reversal of a life history trade‐off in the seed beetleCallosobruchus maculatus

Environmental manipulations have consistently demonstrated a cost of reproduction in the capital-breeding seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, as females deprived of seeds or mates lay fewer eggs and thereby increase their longevity. Yet fecundity and longevity tend to be positively correlated within populations, perhaps as a consequence of individual differences in resource acquisition. We conducted a split-brood experiment that combined a manipulation of seed availability (seeds present or absent) with a quantitative-genetic analysis of fecundity and lifespan in each environment. Each trait was significantly heritable in each environment. Seed availability not only altered mean fecundity and longevity between environments, but also modified how the traits were correlated within environments. The signs of both the phenotypic and genetic correlations switched from positive when seeds were present to negative when seeds were absent. This reversal persisted even after the effect of body mass (a potential indicator of resource acquisition) was statistically controlled. Cross-environment genetic correlations were positive but significantly less than one for each trait. We suggest that the reversal of the fecundity-longevity relationship depends on a shift in the relative importance of resource-acquisition and resource-allocation loci between environments. In particular, a cost of reproduction may be apparent at the individual level only when seeds are scarce or absent because differences in reproductive effort become large enough to overwhelm differences in resource acquisition. Despite their common dependence on resources acquired during larval stages, fecundity and lifespan in C. maculatus do not appear to be tightly coupled in a physiological or genetic sense.

Evolutionary optimality applied to Drosophila experiments: hypothesis of constrained reproductive efficiency

The general purpose of the paper is to test evolutionary optimality theories with experimental data on reproduction, energy consumption, and longevity in a particular Drosophila genotype. We describe the resource allocation in Drosophila females in terms of the oxygen consumption rates devoted to reproduction and to maintenance. The maximum ratio of the component spent on reproduction to the total rate of oxygen consumption, which can be realized by the female reproductive machinery, is called metabolic reproductive efficiency (MRE). We regard MRE as an evolutionary constraint. We demonstrate that MRE may be evaluated for a particular Drosophila phenotype given the fecundity pattern, the age-related pattern of oxygen consumption rate, and the longevity. We use a homeostatic model of aging to simulate a life history of a representative female fly, which describes the control strain in the long-term experiments with the Wayne State Drosophila genotype. We evaluate the theoretically optimal trade-offs in this genotype. Then we apply the Van Noordwijk-de Jong resource acquisition and allocation model, Kirkwood's disposable soma theory. and the Partridge-Barton optimality approach to test if the experimentally observed trade-offs may be regarded as close to the theoretically optimal ones. We demonstrate that the two approaches by Partridge-Barton and Kirkwood allow a positive answer to the question, whereas the Van Noordwijk-de Jong approach may be used to illustrate the optimality. We discuss the prospects of applying the proposed technique to various Drosophila experiments, in particular those including manipulations affecting fecundity.

Fertility and life span: late children enhance female longevity

The relation between fertility and postmenopausal longevity is investigated for a sample of 1635 women from a historical (17th to 18th century) French-Canadian cohort who lived past the age of 50 years. We find that increased fertility is linked to increased rather than decreased postreproductive survival. Postreproductive life expectancy extension is found to be tied to late births. This finding sheds new light on the cost of reproduction and may be viewed as supporting a new paradigm that states that reproductive potential drives remaining longevity. The emerging reproductive potential concept complements the well-established cost of reproduction hypothesis. Alternative explanations for the observed association are also explored. A specific finding is that the degree to which mortality increases for 50-year-old mothers as a result of senescence is closely tied to the logarithm of the age of their youngest child. For example, 50-year-old mothers experience a mortality decrease of 38% and an increase of remaining lifetime of 3.93 years for every 10-fold decrease in the age of their youngest child. This amount of gain in remaining life expectancy would apply to a mother with a two-year-old child as compared with a mother with a 20-year-old offspring. We also find evidence for the existence of vulnerable periods in human life history that are characterized by phases of heightened mortality and are found to be tied to reproduction and senescence.