Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of Colias butterflies to recent climate change

Parameterizing mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology: a review of empirical approaches

Mechanistic niche models are computational tools developed using biophysical principles to address grand challenges in ecology and evolution, such as the mechanisms that shape the fundamental niche and the adaptive significance of traits. Here, we review the empirical basis of mechanistic niche models in biophysical ecology, which are used to answer a broad array of questions in ecology, evolution and global change biology. We describe the experiments and observations that are frequently used to parameterize these models and how these empirical data are then incorporated into mechanistic niche models to predict performance, growth, survival and reproduction. We focus on the physiological, behavioral and morphological traits that are frequently measured and then integrated into these models. We also review the empirical approaches used to incorporate evolutionary processes, phenotypic plasticity and biotic interactions. We discuss the importance of validation experiments and observations in verifying underlying assumptions and complex processes. Despite the reliance of mechanistic niche models on biophysical theory, empirical data have and will continue to play an essential role in their development and implementation.

Naturally segregating genetic variants contribute to thermal tolerance in a D. melanogaster model system

Thermal tolerance is a fundamental physiological complex trait for survival in many species. For example, everyday tasks such as foraging, finding a mate, and avoiding predation, are highly dependent on how well an organism can tolerate extreme temperatures. Understanding the general architecture of the natural variants of the genes that control this trait is of high importance if we want to better comprehend how this trait evolves in natural populations. Here, we take a multipronged approach to further dissect the genetic architecture that controls thermal tolerance in natural populations using the Drosophila Synthetic Population Resource (DSPR) as a model system. First, we used quantitative genetics and Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) mapping to identify major effect regions within the genome that influences thermal tolerance, then integrated RNA-sequencing to identify differences in gene expression, and lastly, we used the RNAi system to 1) alter tissue-specific gene expression and 2) functionally validate our findings. This powerful integration of approaches not only allows for the identification of the genetic basis of thermal tolerance but also the physiology of thermal tolerance in a natural population, which ultimately elucidates thermal tolerance through a fitness-associated lens.

How can physiology best contribute to wildlife conservation in a warming world?

Global warming is now predicted to exceed 1.5°C by 2033 and 2°C by the end of the 21st century. This level of warming and the associated environmental variability are already increasing pressure on natural and human systems. Here we emphasize the role of physiology in the light of the latest assessment of climate warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We describe how physiology can contribute to contemporary conservation programmes. We focus on thermal responses of animals, but we acknowledge that the impacts of climate change are much broader phylogenetically and environmentally. A physiological contribution would encompass environmental monitoring, coupled with measuring individual sensitivities to temperature change and upscaling these to ecosystem level. The latest version of the widely accepted Conservation Standards designed by the Conservation Measures Partnership includes several explicit climate change considerations. We argue that physiology has a unique role to play in addressing these considerations. Moreover, physiology can be incorporated by institutions and organizations that range from international bodies to national governments and to local communities, and in doing so, it brings a mechanistic approach to conservation and the management of biological resources.

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.

Animal Coloration in the Anthropocene

Natural habitats are increasingly affected by anthropogenically driven environmental changes resulting from habitat destruction, chemical and light pollution, and climate change. Organisms inhabiting such habitats are faced with novel disturbances that can alter their modes of signaling. Coloration is one such sensory modality whose production, perception and function is being affected by human-induced disturbances. Animals that acquire pigment derivatives through diet are adversely impacted by the introduction of chemical pollutants into their environments as well as by general loss of natural habitat due to urbanization or logging leading to declines in pigment sources. Those species that do manage to produce color-based signals and displays may face disruptions to their signaling medium in the form of light pollution and turbidity. Furthermore, forest fragmentation and the resulting breaks in canopy cover can expose animals to predation due to the influx of light into previously dark environments. Global climate warming has been decreasing snow cover in arctic regions, causing birds and mammals that undergo seasonal molts to appear conspicuous against a snowless background. Ectotherms that rely on color for thermoregulation are under pressure to change their appearances. Rapid changes in habitat type through severe fire events or coral bleaching also challenge animals to match their backgrounds. Through this review, we aim to describe the wide-ranging impacts of anthropogenic environmental changes on visual ecology and suggest directions for the use of coloration both as an indicator of ecological change and as a tool for conservation.

Rates of warming impact oxidative stress in zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Potentially negative effects of thermal variation on physiological functions may be modulated by compensatory responses, but their efficacy depends on the timescale of phenotypic adjustment relative to the rate of temperature change. Increasing temperatures in particular can affect mitochondrial bioenergetics and rates of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. Our aim was to test whether different rates of temperature increase impact mitochondrial bioenergetics and modulate oxidative stress. We exposed zebrafish (Danio rerio) to warming from 20 to 28°C over 3, 6, 24, or 48 h, and compared these to a control group that was kept at constant 20°C. Fish exposed to the fastest (3 h) and slowest (48 h) rates of warming had significantly higher rates of H2O2 production relative to the control treatment, and the proportion of O2 converted to H2O2 (H2O2/O2 ratio) was significantly greater in these groups. However, ROS production was not paralleled by differences in mitochondrial substrate oxidation rates, leak respiration rates, or coupling (respiratory control ratios). Increased rates of ROS production did not lead to damage of proteins or membranes, which may be explained by a moderate increase in catalase activity at the fastest, but not the slowest rate of warming. The increase in ROS production at the slowest rate of heating indicates that even seemingly benign environments may be stressful. Understanding how animals respond to different rates of temperature change is important, because the rate determines the time period for phenotypic adjustments and it also alters the environmental thermal signal that triggers compensatory pathways.

Impact of Climate Change on Migratory Birds in Asia

Climate change is not something that has never happened before. However, it has recently been reported that climate change has affected living things such as humans, animals and plants. Among the animals that may be vulnerable to the effects of climate change are migratory bird species. Therefore, this review paper will emphasise the checklist of migratory bird species found to be affected by climate change. Data for bird migration species in Asia are obtained from the Birdlife Data Zone. At the same time, the data for Global land surface temperature (1910-2020) and Asia land surface temperature (1910-2020) were taken from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for Environmental information. These papers showed that climate warming could affect species differently, but there are still species from certain populations not affected at all. This paper also reviewed that approximately 169 species of migratory birds in Asia are affected by climate change and severe weather. Of the total, 5 species (2.96%) are critically endangered, 8 (4.73%) endangered, 21 (12.43%) vulnerable, 27 (15.98%) near threatened and 123 (63.91%) least concern.

Eco-evolutionary consequences of habitat warming and fragmentation in communities

Eco-evolutionary dynamics can mediate species and community responses to habitat warming and fragmentation, two of the largest threats to biodiversity and ecosystems. The eco-evolutionary consequences of warming and fragmentation are typically studied independently, hindering our understanding of their simultaneous impacts. Here, we provide a new perspective rooted in trade-offs among traits for understanding their eco-evolutionary consequences. On the one hand, temperature influences traits related to metabolism, such as resource acquisition and activity levels. Such traits are also likely to have trade-offs with other energetically costly traits, like antipredator defences or dispersal. On the other hand, fragmentation can influence a variety of traits (e.g. dispersal) through its effects on the spatial environment experienced by individuals, as well as properties of populations, such as genetic structure. The combined effects of warming and fragmentation on communities should thus reflect their collective impact on traits of individuals and populations, as well as trade-offs at multiple trophic levels, leading to unexpected dynamics when effects are not additive and when evolutionary responses modulate them. Here, we provide a road map to navigate this complexity. First, we review single-species responses to warming and fragmentation. Second, we focus on consumer-resource interactions, considering how eco-evolutionary dynamics can arise in response to warming, fragmentation, and their interaction. Third, we illustrate our perspective with several example scenarios in which trait trade-offs could result in significant eco-evolutionary dynamics. Specifically, we consider the possible eco-evolutionary consequences of (i) evolution in thermal performance of a species involved in a consumer-resource interaction, (ii) ecological or evolutionary changes to encounter and attack rates of consumers, and (iii) changes to top consumer body size in tri-trophic food chains. In these scenarios, we present a number of novel, sometimes counter-intuitive, potential outcomes. Some of these expectations contrast with those solely based on ecological dynamics, for example, evolutionary responses in unexpected directions for resource species or unanticipated population declines in top consumers. Finally, we identify several unanswered questions about the conditions most likely to yield strong eco-evolutionary dynamics, how better to incorporate the role of trade-offs among traits, and the role of eco-evolutionary dynamics in governing responses to warming in fragmented communities.

Shifts in the relative fitness contributions of fecundity and survival in variable and changing environments

Organisms respond to shifts in climate means and variability via distinct mechanisms. Accounting for these differential responses and appropriately aggregating them is central to understanding and predicting responses to climate variability and change. Separately considering fitness components can clarify organismal responses: fecundity is primarily an integrated, additive response to chronic environmental conditions over time via mechanisms such as energy use and acquisition, whereas survival can be strongly influenced by short-term, extreme environmental conditions. In many systems, the relative importance of fecundity and survival constraints changes systematically along climate gradients, with fecundity constraints dominating at high latitudes or altitudes (i.e. leading range edges as climate warms), and survival constraints dominating at trailing range edges. Incorporating these systematic differences in models may improve predictions of responses to recent climate change over models that assume similar processes along environmental gradients. We explore how detecting and predicting shifts in fitness constraints can improve our ability to forecast responses to climate gradients and change.

The evolution of insect body coloration under changing climates

Insects have been influential models in research on color variation, its evolutionary drivers and the mechanistic basis of such variation. More recently, several studies have indicated that insect color is responding to rapid climate change. However, it remains challenging to ascertain drivers of color variation among populations and species, and across space and time, as multiple biotic and abiotic factors can interact and mediate color change. Here, we describe some of the challenges and recent advances made in this field. First, we outline the main alternative hypotheses that exist for insect color variation in relation to climatic factors. Second, we review the existing evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution of insect color in response to climate change and then discuss factors that can promote or hinder the evolution of color in response to climate change. Finally, we propose future directions and highlight gaps in this research field. Pigments and structures producing insect color can vary concurrently or independently, and may evolve at different rates, with poorly understood effects on gene frequencies and fitness. Disentangling multiple competing hypotheses explaining insect coloration should be key to assign color variation as an evolutionary response to climate change.

Evolution is a double-edged sword, not a silver bullet, to confront global change

Although there is considerable optimism surrounding adaptive evolutionary responses to global change, relatively little attention has been paid to maladaptation in this context. In this review, we consider how global change might lead populations to become maladapted. We further consider how populations can evolve to new optima, fail to evolve and therefore remain maladapted, or become further maladapted through trait-driven or eco-evo-driven mechanisms after being displaced from their fitness optima. Our goal is to stimulate thinking about evolution as a "double-edged sword" that comprises both adaptive and maladaptive responses, rather than as a "silver bullet" or a purely adaptive mechanism to combat global change. We conclude by discussing how a better appreciation of environmentally driven maladaptation and maladaptive responses might improve our current understanding of population responses to global change and our ability to forecast future responses.

Ecological change in dynamic environments: Accounting for temporal environmental variability in studies of ocean change biology

The environmental conditions in the ocean have long been considered relatively more stable through time compared to the conditions on land. Advances in sensing technologies, however, are increasingly revealing substantial fluctuations in abiotic factors over ecologically and evolutionarily relevant timescales in the ocean, leading to a growing recognition of the dynamism of the marine environment as well as new questions about how this dynamism may influence species' vulnerability to global environmental change. In some instances, the diurnal or seasonal variability in major environmental change drivers, such as temperature, pH and seawater carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen, can exceed the changes expected with continued anthropogenic global change. While ocean global change biologists have begun to experimentally test how variability in environmental conditions mediates species' responses to changes in the mean, the extensive literature on species' adaptations to temporal variability in their environment and the implications of this variability for their evolutionary responses has not been well integrated into the field. Here, we review the physiological mechanisms underlying species' responses to changes in temperature, pCO₂ /pH (and other carbonate parameters), and dissolved oxygen, and discuss what is known about behavioral, plastic, and evolutionary strategies for dealing with variable environments. In addition, we discuss how exposure to variability may influence species' responses to changes in the mean conditions and highlight key research needs for ocean global change biology.

Comparative studies of critical physiological limits and vulnerability to environmental extremes in small ectotherms: How much environmental control is needed?

Researchers and practitioners are increasingly using comparative assessments of critical thermal and physiological limits to assess the relative vulnerability of ectothermic species to extreme thermal and aridity conditions occurring under climate change. In most assessments of vulnerability, critical limits are compared across taxa exposed to different environmental and developmental conditions. However, many aspects of vulnerability should ideally be compared when species are exposed to the same environmental conditions, allowing a partitioning of sources of variation such as used in quantitative genetics. This is particularly important when assessing the importance of different types of plasticity to critical limits, using phylogenetic analyses to test for evolutionary constraints, isolating genetic variants that contribute to limits, characterizing evolutionary interactions among traits limiting adaptive responses, and when assessing the role of cross generation effects. However, vulnerability assessments based on critical thermal/physiological limits also need to take place within a context that is relevant to field conditions, which is not easily provided under controlled environmental conditions where behavior, microhabitat, stress exposure rates and other factors will differ from field conditions. There are ways of reconciling these requirements, such as by taking organisms from controlled environments and then testing their performance under field conditions (or vice versa). While comparisons under controlled environments are challenging for many taxa, assessments of critical thermal limits and vulnerability will always be incomplete unless environmental effects within and across generations are considered, and where the ecological relevance of assays measuring critical limits can be established.

Differential wing polyphenism adaptation across life stages under extreme high temperatures in corn leaf aphid

Polyphenism, a common phenomenon in nature, is an important form of adaptation in a diverse environment. Corn leaf aphid (CLA), Rhopalosiphum maidis, (Hemiptera: Aphididae), exhibit wing polyphenism in response to poor habitat quality. In this study, we focused on the effects of crowding and thermal cues on morph determination of CLA. Five developmental stages of aphids (1^st to 4^th nymphs and maternal adults) with increased population densities, were tested under two kinds of temperature patterns, i.e., A) a constant temperature of 22 °C with 2 h exposure to high temperature in the range of 35 to 39 °C during mid-photophase and B) different constant temperatures in the range of 22-30 °C with 2 h exposure to high temperature of 39 °C during mid-photophase. Crowding was found to directly impact winged induction. The 1^st and 2^nd nymphs were more sensitive for alate morphs induction under high density. In addition, temperature played a significant role in wing production, with the temperature setting of 26/39 °C in pattern B inducing higher alate morphs and survival than other temperature settings. Therefore, we hypothesize that warmer climate with brief high temperature is more favourable for survival and alate morphs production, but cool weather and transient extreme high temperature (>39 °C) is detrimental for CLA. Our results provide a new perspective on understanding the interactions between changes in extreme high temperatures and insect densities that differentially affect wing polymorphism for further demographic and distribution rates of species across temporal and spatial scales.

Histone deacetylase activity mediates thermal plasticity in zebrafish (Danio rerio)

Regulatory mechanisms underlying thermal plasticity determine its evolution and potential to confer resilience to climate change. Here we show that class I and II histone deacetylases (HDAC) mediated thermal plasticity globally by shifting metabolomic profiles of cold acclimated zebrafish (Danio rerio) away from warm acclimated animals. HDAC activity promoted swimming performance, but reduced slow and fast myosin heavy chain content in cardiac and skeletal muscle. HDAC increased sarco-endoplasmic reticulum ATPase activity in cold-acclimated fish but not in warm-acclimated animals, and it promoted cardiac function (heart rate and relative stroke volume) in cold but not in warm-acclimated animals. HDAC are an evolutionarily ancient group of proteins, and our data show that they mediate the capacity for thermal plasticity, although the actual manifestation of plasticity is likely to be determined by interactions with other regulators such as AMP-activated protein kinase and thyroid hormone.

A multi-year experiment shows that lower precipitation predictability encourages plants' early life stages and enhances population viability

Climate change is a key factor that may cause the extinction of species. The associated reduced weather predictability may alter the survival of plants, especially during their early life stages, when individuals are most fragile. While it is expected that extreme weather events will be highly detrimental for species, the effects of more subtle environmental changes have been little considered. In a four-year experiment on two herbaceous plants, Papaver rhoeas and Onobrychis viciifolia, we manipulated the predictability of precipitation by changing the temporal correlation of precipitation events while maintaining average precipitation constant, leading to more and less predictable treatments. We assessed the effect of predictability on plant viability in terms of seedling emergence, survival, seed production, and population growth rate. We found greater seedling emergence, survival, and population growth for plants experiencing lower intra-seasonal predictability, but more so during early compared to late life stages. Since predictability levels were maintained across four generations, we have also tested whether descendants exhibited transgenerational responses to previous predictability conditions. In P. rhoeas, descendants had increased the seedling emergence compared to ancestors under both treatments, but more so under lower precipitation predictability. However, higher predictability in the late treatment induced higher survival in descendants, showing that these conditions may benefit long-term survival. This experiment highlights the ability of some plants to rapidly exploit environmental resources and increase their survival under less predictable conditions, especially during early life stages. Therefore, this study provides relevant evidence of the survival capacity of some species under current and future short-term environmental alterations.

Using museum specimens to track morphological shifts through climate change

Museum specimens offer a largely untapped resource for detecting morphological shifts in response to climate change. However, morphological shifts can be obscured by shifts in phenology or distribution or sampling biases. Additionally, interpreting phenotypic shifts requires distinguishing whether they result from plastic or genetic changes. Previous studies using collections have documented consistent historical size changes, but the limited studies of other morphological traits have often failed to support, or even test, hypotheses. We explore the potential of collections by investigating shifts in the functionally significant coloration of a montane butterfly, Colias meadii, over the past 60 years within three North American geographical regions. We find declines in ventral wing melanism, which correspond to reduced absorption of solar radiation and thus reduced risk of overheating, in two regions. However, contrary to expected responses to climate warming, we find melanism increases in the most thoroughly sampled region. Relationships among temperature, phenology and morphology vary across years and complicate the distinction between plastic and genetic responses. Differences in these relationships may account for the differing morphological shifts among regions. Our findings highlight the promise of using museum specimens to test mechanistic hypotheses for shifts in functional traits, which is essential for deciphering interacting responses to climate change.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

How do phenology, plasticity, and evolution determine the fitness consequences of climate change for montane butterflies?

Species have responded to climate change via seasonal (phenological) shifts, morphological plasticity, and evolutionary adaptation, but how these responses contribute to changes and variation in population fitness are poorly understood. We assess the interactions and relative importance of these responses for fitness in a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Because environmental temperatures affect developmental rates of each life stage, populations along the gradients differ in phenological timing and the number of generations each year. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity of adult butterflies, exhibits local adaptation across elevation and responds plastically to developmental temperatures. We integrate climatic data for the past half-century with microclimate, developmental, biophysical, demographic, and evolutionary models for this system to predict how phenology, plasticity, and evolution contribute to phenotypic and fitness variation along the gradient. We predict that phenological advancements incompletely compensate for climate warming, and also influence morphological plasticity. Climate change is predicted to increase mean population fitness in the first seasonal generation at high elevation, but decrease mean fitness in the summer generations at low elevation. Phenological shifts reduce the interannual variation in directional selection and morphology, but do not have consistent effects on variation in mean fitness. Morphological plasticity and its evolution can substantially increase population fitness and adaptation to climate change at low elevations, but environmental unpredictability limits adaptive plastic and evolutionary responses at high elevations. Phenological shifts also decrease the relative fitness advantages of morphological plasticity and evolution. Our results illustrate how the potential contributions of phenological and morphological plasticity and of evolution to climate change adaptation can vary along environmental gradients and how environmental variability will limit adaptive responses to climate change in montane regions.

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine

Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional selection acting on laying date could favour an adaptive response in this trait, since it is heritable.

Quantifying thermal extremes and biological variation to predict evolutionary responses to changing climate

Central ideas from thermal biology, including thermal performance curves and tolerances, have been widely used to evaluate how changes in environmental means and variances generate changes in fitness, selection and microevolution in response to climate change. We summarize the opportunities and challenges for extending this approach to understanding the consequences of extreme climatic events. Using statistical tools from extreme value theory, we show how distributions of thermal extremes vary with latitude, time scale and climate change. Second, we review how performance curves and tolerances have been used to predict the fitness and evolutionary responses to climate change and climate gradients. Performance curves and tolerances change with prior thermal history and with time scale, complicating their use for predicting responses to thermal extremes. Third, we describe several recent case studies showing how infrequent extreme events can have outsized effects on the evolution of performance curves and heat tolerance. A key issue is whether thermal extremes affect reproduction or survival, and how these combine to determine overall fitness. We argue that a greater focus on tails-in the distribution of environmental extremes, and in the upper ends of performance curves-is needed to understand the consequences of extreme events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle, along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Direct benefits and indirect costs of warm temperatures for high-elevation populations of a solitary bee

Warm temperatures are required for insect flight. Consequently, warming could benefit many high-latitude and high-altitude insects by increasing opportunities for foraging or oviposition. However, warming can also alter species interactions, including interactions with natural enemies, making the net effect of rising temperatures on population growth rate difficult to predict. We investigated the temperature-dependence of nesting activity and lifetime reproductive output over 3 yr in subalpine populations of a pollen-specialist bee, Osmia iridis. Rates of nest provisioning increased with ambient temperatures and with availability of floral resources, as expected. However, warmer conditions did not increase lifetime reproductive output. Lifetime offspring production was best explained by rates of brood parasitism (by the wasp Sapyga), which increased with temperature. Direct observations of bee and parasite activity suggest that although activity of both species is favored by warmer temperatures, bees can be active at lower ambient temperatures, while wasps are active only at higher temperatures. Thus, direct benefits to the bees of warmer temperatures were nullified by indirect costs associated with increased parasite activity. To date, most studies of climate-change effects on pollinators have focused on changing interactions between pollinators and their floral host-plants (i.e., bottom-up processes). Our results suggest that natural enemies (i.e., top-down forces) can play a key role in pollinator population regulation and should not be overlooked in forecasts of pollinator responses to climate change.

Temperature extremes: geographic patterns, recent changes, and implications for organismal vulnerabilities

Extreme temperatures can injure or kill organisms and can drive evolutionary patterns. Many indices of extremes have been proposed, but few attempts have been made to establish geographic patterns of extremes and to evaluate whether they align with geographic patterns in biological vulnerability and diversity. To examine these issues, we adopt the CLIMDEX indices of thermal extremes. We compute scores for each index on a geographic grid during a baseline period (1961-1990) and separately for the recent period (1991-2010). Heat extremes (temperatures above the 90th percentile during the baseline period) have become substantially more common during the recent period, particularly in the tropics. Importantly, the various indices show weak geographic concordance, implying that organisms in different regions will face different forms of thermal stress. The magnitude of recent shifts in indices is largely uncorrelated with baseline scores in those indices, suggesting that organisms are likely to face novel thermal stresses. Organismal tolerances correlate roughly with absolute metrics (mainly for cold), but poorly with metrics defined relative to local conditions. Regions with high extreme scores do not correlate closely with regions with high species diversity, human population density, or agricultural production. Even though frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events have - and are likely to have - major impacts on organisms, the impacts are likely to be geographically and taxonomically idiosyncratic and difficult to predict.

Cool habitats support darker and bigger butterflies in Australian tropical forests

Morphology mediates the relationship between an organism's body temperature and its environment. Dark organisms, for example, tend to absorb heat more quickly than lighter individuals, which could influence their responses to temperature. Therefore, temperature‐related traits such as morphology may affect patterns of species abundance, richness, and community assembly across a broad range of spatial scales. In this study, we examined variation in color lightness and body size within butterfly communities across hot and cool habitats in the tropical woodland–rainforest ecosystems of northeast Queensland, Australia. Using thermal imaging, we documented the absorption of solar radiation relative to color lightness and wingspan and then built a phylogenetic tree based on available sequences to analyze the effects of habitat on these traits within a phylogenetic framework. In general, darker and larger individuals were more prevalent in cool, closed‐canopy rainforests than in immediately adjacent and hotter open woodlands. In addition, darker and larger butterflies preferred to be active in the shade and during crepuscular hours, while lighter and smaller butterflies were more active in the sun and midday hours—a pattern that held after correcting for phylogeny. Our ex situ experiment supported field observations that dark and large butterflies heated up faster than light and small butterflies under standardized environmental conditions. Our results show a thermal consequence of butterfly morphology across habitats and how environmental factors at a microhabitat scale may affect the distribution of species based on these traits. Furthermore, this study highlights how butterfly species might differentially respond to warming based on ecophysiological traits and how thermal refuges might emerge at microclimatic and habitat scales.

Measuring thermal behavior in smaller insects: A case study in Drosophila melanogaster demonstrates effects of sex, geographic origin, and rearing temperature on adult behavior

Measuring thermal behavior in smaller insects is particularly challenging. In this study, we describe a new horizontal thermal gradient apparatus designed to study adult thermal behavior in small insects and apply it using D. melanogaster as a model and case study. Specifically, we used this apparatus and associated methodology to examine the effects of sex, geographic origin, and developmental rearing temperature on temperature preferences exhibited by adults in a controlled laboratory environment. The thermal gradient established by the apparatus was stable over diurnal and calendar time. Furthermore, the distribution of adult flies across thermal habitats within the apparatus remained stable following the period of acclimation, as evidenced by the high degree of repeatability across both biological and technical replicates. Our data demonstrate significant and predictable variation in temperature preference for all 3 assayed variables. Behaviorally, females were more sensitive than males to higher temperatures. Flies originating from high latitude, temperate populations exhibited a greater preference for cooler temperatures; conversely, flies originating from low latitude, tropical habitats demonstrated a relative preference for higher temperatures. Similarly, larval rearing temperature was positively associated with adult thermal behavior: low culture temperatures increased the relative adult preference for cooler temperatures, and this response was distinct between the sexes and for flies from the temperate and subtropical geographic regions. Together, these results demonstrate that the temperature chamber apparatus elicits robust, predictable, and quantifiable thermal preference behavior that could readily be applied to other taxa to examine the role of temperature-mediated behavior in a variety of contexts.

How Extreme Temperatures Impact Organisms and the Evolution of their Thermal Tolerance

SynopsisUnderstanding the biological impacts of extreme temperatures requires translating meteorological estimates into organismal responses, but that translation is complex. In general, the physiological stress induced by a given thermal extreme should increase with the extreme's magnitude and duration, though acclimation may buffer that stress. However, organisms can differ strikingly in their exposure to and tolerance of a given extreme temperatures. Moreover, their sensitivity to extremes can vary during ontogeny, across seasons, and among species; and that sensitivity and its variation should be subject to selection. We use a simple quantitative genetic model and demonstrate that thermal extremes-even when at low frequency-can substantially influence the evolution of thermal sensitivity, particularly when the extremes cause mortality or persistent physiological injury, or when organisms are unable to use behavior to buffer exposure to extremes. Thermal extremes can drive organisms in temperate and tropical sites to have similar thermal tolerances despite major differences in mean temperatures. Indeed, the model correctly predicts that Australian Drosophila should have shallower latitudinal gradients in thermal tolerance than would be expected based only on gradients in mean conditions. Predicting responses to climate change requires understanding not only how past selection to tolerate thermal extremes has helped establish existing geographic gradients in thermal tolerances, but also how increasing the incidence of thermal extremes will alter geographic gradients in the future.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat stress in a temperate dung fly: negative correlation between basal and induced heat tolerance?

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Populations can cope with elevated heat stress by evolving higher basal heat tolerance (evolutionary response) and/or stronger induced heat tolerance (plastic response). However, there is ongoing debate about whether basal and induced heat tolerance are negatively correlated and whether adaptive potential in heat tolerance is sufficient under ongoing climate warming. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of basal and induced heat tolerance, we performed experimental evolution on a temperate source population of the dung fly Sepsis punctum. Offspring of flies adapted to three thermal selection regimes (Hot, Cold and Reference) were subjected to acute heat stress after having been exposed to either a hot-acclimation or non-acclimation pretreatment. As different traits may respond differently to temperature stress, several physiological and life history traits were assessed. Condition dependence of the response was evaluated by exposing juveniles to different levels of developmental (food restriction/rearing density) stress. Heat knockdown times were highest, whereas acclimation effects were lowest in the Hot selection regime, indicating a negative association between basal and induced heat tolerance. However, survival, adult longevity, fecundity and fertility did not show such a pattern. Acclimation had positive effects in heat-shocked flies, but in the absence of heat stress hot-acclimated flies had reduced life spans relative to non-acclimated ones, thereby revealing a potential cost of acclimation. Moreover, body size positively affected heat tolerance and unstressed individuals were less prone to heat stress than stressed flies, offering support for energetic costs associated with heat tolerance. Overall, our results indicate that heat tolerance of temperate insects can evolve under rising temperatures, but this response could be limited by a negative relationship between basal and induced thermotolerance, and may involve some but not other fitness-related traits.

Geographic divergence in upper thermal limits across insect life stages: does behavior matter?

Insects with complex life cycles vary in size, mobility, and thermal ecology across life stages. We examine how differences in the capacity for thermoregulatory behavior influence geographic differences in physiological heat tolerance among egg and adult Colias butterflies. Colias adults exhibit differences in morphology (wing melanin and thoracic setal length) along spatial gradients, whereas eggs are morphologically indistinguishable. Here we compare Colias eriphyle eggs and adults from two elevations and Colias meadii from a high elevation. Hatching success and egg development time of C. eriphyle eggs did not differ significantly with the elevation of origin. Egg survival declined in response to heat-shock temperatures above 38-40 °C and egg development time was shortest at intermediate heat-shock temperatures of 33-38 °C. Laboratory experiments with adults showed survival in response to heat shock was significantly greater for Colias from higher than from lower elevation sites. Common-garden experiments at the low-elevation field site showed that C. meadii adults initiated heat-avoidance and over-heating behaviors significantly earlier in the day than C. eriphyle. Our study demonstrates the importance of examining thermal tolerances across life stages. Our findings are inconsistent with the hypothesis that thermoregulatory behavior inhibits the geographic divergence of physiological traits in mobile stages, and suggest that sessile stages may evolve similar heat tolerances in different environments due to microclimatic variability or evolutionary constraints.

Evolutionary rescue can be impeded by temporary environmental amelioration

Rapid evolutionary adaptation has the potential to rescue from extinction populations experiencing environmental changes. Little is known, however, about the impact of short-term environmental fluctuations during long-term environmental deterioration, an intrinsic property of realistic environmental changes. Temporary environmental amelioration arising from such fluctuations could either facilitate evolutionary rescue by allowing population recovery (a positive demographic effect) or impede it by relaxing selection for beneficial mutations required for future survival (a negative population genetic effect). We address this uncertainty in an experiment with populations of a bacteriophage virus that evolved under deteriorating conditions (gradually increasing temperature). Periodic environmental amelioration (short periods of reduced temperature) caused demographic recovery during the early phase of the experiment, but ultimately reduced the frequency of evolutionary rescue. These experimental results suggest that environmental fluctuations could reduce the potential of evolutionary rescue.