Temperature drives Zika virus transmission: evidence from empirical and mathematical models

Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates

Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.

Mosquito population dynamics is shaped by the interaction among larval density, season, and land use

Understanding how variation in key abiotic and biotic factors interact at spatial scales relevant for mosquito fitness and population dynamics is crucial for predicting current and future mosquito distributions and abundances, and the transmission potential for human pathogens. However, studies investigating the effects of environmental variation on mosquito traits have investigated environmental factors in isolation or in laboratory experiments that examine constant environmental conditions that often do not occur in the field. To address these limitations, we conducted a semi-field experiment in Athens, Georgia using the invasive Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus). We selected nine sites that spanned natural variation in impervious surface and vegetation cover to explore effects of the microclimate (temperature and humidity) on mosquitoes. On these sites, we manipulated conspecific larval density at each site. We repeated the experiment in the summer and fall. We then evaluated the effects of land cover, larval density, and time of season, as well as interactive effects, on the mean proportion of females emerging, juvenile development time, size upon emergence, and predicted per capita population growth (i.e., fitness). We found significant effects of larval density, land cover, and season on all response variables. Of most note, we saw strong interactive effects of season and intra-specific density on each response variable, including a non-intuitive decrease in development time with increasing intra-specific competition in the fall. Our study demonstrates that ignoring the interaction between variation in biotic and abiotic variables could reduce the accuracy and precision of models used to predict mosquito population and pathogen transmission dynamics, especially those inferring dynamics at finer-spatial scales across which transmission and control occur.

Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model

Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming Zika switched between periods of presence and absence according to spatially and temporally varying probabilities of emergence/re-emergence (from absence to presence) and persistence (from presence to presence). These probabilities were assumed to follow a series of mixed multiple logistic regressions. When Zika was present, assuming that the cases follow a negative binomial distribution, we estimated the transmission intensity rate. Our results indicate that Zika emerged/re-emerged sooner and that transmission was intensified in municipalities that were more densely populated, at lower altitudes and/or with less vegetation cover. Warmer temperatures and less weekly-accumulated rain were also associated with Zika emergence. Zika cases persisted for longer in more densely populated areas with more cases reported in the previous week. Overall, population density, elevation, and temperature were identified as the main contributors to the first Zika epidemic in Colombia. We also estimated the probability of Zika presence by municipality and week, and the results suggest that the disease circulated undetected by the surveillance system on many occasions. Our results offer insights into priority areas for public health interventions against emerging and re-emerging Aedes-borne diseases.

Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.

Has Zika been forgotten? A qualitative exploration of knowledge gaps, perceived risk and preventive practices in pregnant women in Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Although Zika virus infection is rarely reported now, continuous prevention is needed to achieve sustained eradication. This study aimed to explore the knowledge gaps, risk perception and preventive measures against Zika virus infection (ZIKV) in pregnant women in Malaysia.

METHODS

We conducted in-depth virtual interviews with pregnant women between February and April 2022. The interviews were recorded and transcribed, and data were analyzed by content analysis.

RESULTS

The majority of the participants demonstrated a commendable level of awareness regarding the signs and symptoms associated with ZIKV infection. They also exhibited a clear understanding of preventive measures, particularly emphasizing the importance of avoiding mosquito bites to minimize the risk of ZIKV transmission. However, a noteworthy gap in knowledge surfaced as a subset of participants remained uninformed about the potential for sexual transmission of ZIKV, which could lead to congenital ZIKV in pregnant women. Even among women who were cognizant of ZIKV and its potential negative health outcomes, associated with the infection, many of them did not perceive themselves to be at risk, mainly because ZIKV infection is infrequently discussed or heard of, leading to a sense of infections' rarity. While the adoption of preventive measures such as mosquito bite prevention during pregnancy was a common practice, however, prevention of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) including mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika is low. A minority of women express concerns about the sensitivity surrounding discussions and prevention of STIs within the context of marriage. Most of the participants were supportive of the provision of awareness of ZIKV infection in women during pregnancy and the involvement of men, especially in initiatives aimed at preventing transmission through sexual contact.

CONCLUSION

This study uncovered gaps in both knowledge and practices pertaining ZIKV infection among pregnant women in the aftermath of the ZIKV pandemic. The insights gleaned from our research are valuable for shaping future interventions geared towards preventing the resurgence or facilitating the sustainable eradication of ZIKV.

"Long COVID" and Its Impact on The Environment: Emerging Concerns and Perspectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented global health and economic crises. The emergence of long COVID-19 has raised concerns about the interplay between SARS-CoV-2 infections, climate change, and the environment. In this context, a concise analysis of the potential long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic along with the awareness aboutenvironmental issues are realized. While COVID-19 effects in the short-term have reduced environmental air pollutants and pressures, CO2 emissions are projected to increase as the economy recovers and growth rates return to pre-COVID-19 levels. This review discusses the systematic effects of both the short-term and long-term effects of the pandemic on the clean energy revolution and environmental issues. This article also discusses opportunities to achieve long-term environmental benefits and emphasizes the importance of future policies in promoting global environmental sustainability. Future directions for growth and recovery are presented to cope with long COVID-19 epidemic along with the critical findings focussing on various aspects: waste management, air quality improvement.

Detecting the impacts of humidity, rainfall, temperature, and season on chikungunya, dengue and Zika viruses in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes from selected sites in Cebu city, Philippines

BACKGROUND

Aedes albopictus is the secondary vector for dengue virus (DENV) in the Philippines, and also harbors chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses. This study aimed to determine the minimum infection rates (MIRs) of CHIKV, DENV serotypes, and ZIKV in Ae. albopictus collected from selected two-site categories by altitude (highland [H] and lowland [L] sites) in Cebu city, Philippines during the wet (WS) and dry seasons (DS) of 2021-2022, and to explore the relationships between these arboviral MIRs and the local weather.

METHODS

The viral RNA extracts in pooled and reared adult Ae. albopictus collected during the DS and WS from two-site categories were subjected to RT-PCR to amplify and detect gene loci specific for CHIKV, DENV-1 to DENV-4, and ZIKV and analyzed with the weather data.

RESULTS

The range of CHIKV MIRs was higher in the WS (13.61-107.38 infected individuals per 1,000 mosquitoes) than in the DS (13.22-44.12), but was similar between the two-site categories. Rainfall (RF) influenced the CHIKV MIR. The MIR ranges of both DENV-2 (WS: H = 0, L = 0; DS: H = 0-5.92; L = 0-2.6) and DENV-4 (WS: H = 0, L = 0-2.90; DS: H = 2.96-6.13, L = 0-15.63) differed by season but not between the two-site categories. Relative humidity (RH), RF, and temperature did not influence DENVs' MIRs. The MIR range of ZIKV was similar in both seasons (WS: 11.36-40.27; DS: 0-46.15) and two-site categories (H = 0-90.91, L = 0-55.56). RH and temperature influenced ZIKV MIR.

CONCLUSIONS

RF influenced CHIKV MIR in Ae. albopictus, whereas RH and temperature influenced that of ZIKV. Season influenced the MIRs of CHIKV and DENVs but not in ZIKV. Ae. albopictus were co-infected with CHIKV, DENVs, and ZIKV in both highland and lowland sites in Cebu city. Recommendations include all-year-round implementation of the Philippine Department of Health's  4S enhanced strategy and installation of water pipelines in rural highlands for vector and disease control. Our findings are relevant to protect public health in the tropics in this climate change.

Extreme heat reduces host and parasite performance in a butterfly-parasite interaction

Environmental temperature fundamentally shapes insect physiology, fitness and interactions with parasites. Differential climate warming effects on host versus parasite biology could exacerbate or inhibit parasite transmission, with far-reaching implications for pollination services, biocontrol and human health. Here, we experimentally test how controlled temperatures influence multiple components of host and parasite fitness in monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) and their protozoan parasites Ophryocystis elektroscirrha. Using five constant-temperature treatments spanning 18-34°C, we measured monarch development, survival, size, immune function and parasite infection status and intensity. Monarch size and survival declined sharply at the hottest temperature (34°C), as did infection probability, suggesting that extreme heat decreases both host and parasite performance. The lack of infection at 34°C was not due to greater host immunity or faster host development but could instead reflect the thermal limits of parasite invasion and within-host replication. In the context of ongoing climate change, temperature increases above current thermal maxima could reduce the fitness of both monarchs and their parasites, with lower infection rates potentially balancing negative impacts of extreme heat on future monarch abundance and distribution.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life-history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1200 km, we found limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations. In particular, the upper thermal limits of all life-history traits varied by less than 3°C across the species range and, for most traits, did not differ significantly between populations. For one life-history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found that maximum environmental temperatures across most of the species' range already regularly exceed the highest upper thermal limits estimated under constant temperatures. This result suggests that strategies for coping with and/or avoiding thermal extremes are likely key components of current and future mosquito thermal tolerance.

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on pediatric viral diseases

The adverse effects of climate change on human health are unfolding in real time. Environmental fragmentation is amplifying spillover of viruses from wildlife to humans. Increasing temperatures are expanding mosquito and tick habitats, introducing vector-borne viruses into immunologically susceptible populations. More frequent flooding is spreading water-borne viral pathogens, while prolonged droughts reduce regional capacity to prevent and respond to disease outbreaks with adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene resources. Worsening air quality and altered transmission seasons due to an increasingly volatile climate may exacerbate the impacts of respiratory viruses. Furthermore, both extreme weather events and long-term climate variation are causing the destruction of health systems and large-scale migrations, reshaping health care delivery in the face of an evolving global burden of viral disease. Because of their immunological immaturity, differences in physiology (e.g., size), dependence on caregivers, and behavioral traits, children are particularly vulnerable to climate change. This investigation into the unique pediatric viral threats posed by an increasingly inhospitable world elucidates potential avenues of targeted programming and uncovers future research questions to effect equitable, actionable change. IMPACT: A review of the effects of climate change on viral threats to pediatric health, including zoonotic, vector-borne, water-borne, and respiratory viruses, as well as distal threats related to climate-induced migration and health systems. A unique focus on viruses offers a more in-depth look at the effect of climate change on vector competence, viral particle survival, co-morbidities, and host behavior. An examination of children as a particularly vulnerable population provokes programming tailored to their unique set of vulnerabilities and encourages reflection on equitable climate adaptation frameworks.

Phenotypic adaptation to temperature in the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti

Most models exploring the effects of climate change on mosquito-borne disease ignore thermal adaptation. However, if local adaptation leads to changes in mosquito thermal responses, "one size fits all" models could fail to capture current variation between populations and future adaptive responses to changes in temperature. Here, we assess phenotypic adaptation to temperature in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. First, to explore whether there is any difference in existing thermal response of mosquitoes between populations, we used a thermal knockdown assay to examine five populations of Ae. aegypti collected from climatically diverse locations in Mexico, together with a long-standing laboratory strain. We identified significant phenotypic variation in thermal tolerance between populations. Next, to explore whether such variation can be generated by differences in temperature, we conducted an experimental passage study by establishing six replicate lines from a single field-derived population of Ae. aegypti from Mexico, maintaining half at 27°C and the other half at 31°C. After 10 generations, we found a significant difference in mosquito performance, with the lines maintained under elevated temperatures showing greater thermal tolerance. Moreover, these differences in thermal tolerance translated to shifts in the thermal performance curves for multiple life-history traits, leading to differences in overall fitness. Together, these novel findings provide compelling evidence that Ae. aegypti populations can and do differ in thermal response, suggesting that simplified thermal performance models might be insufficient for predicting the effects of climate on vector-borne disease transmission.

Quantifying Rift Valley fever virus transmission efficiency in a lamb-mosquito-lamb model

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a (re)emerging mosquito-borne pathogen impacting human and animal health. How RVFV spreads through a population depends on population-level and individual-level interactions between vector, host and pathogen. Here, we estimated the probability for RVFV to transmit to naive animals by experimentally exposing lambs to a bite of an infectious mosquito, and assessed if and how RVFV infection subsequently developed in the exposed animal. Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, previously infected via feeding on a viremic lamb, were used to expose naive lambs to the virus. Aedes aegypti colony mosquitoes were used as they are easy to maintain and readily feed in captivity. Other mosquito spp. could be examined with similar methodology. Lambs were exposed to either 1-3 (low exposure) or 7-9 (high exposure) infectious mosquitoes. All lambs in the high exposure group became viremic and showed characteristic signs of Rift Valley fever within 2-4 days post exposure. In contrast, 3 out of 12 lambs in the low exposure group developed viremia and disease, with similar peak-levels of viremia as the high exposure group but with some heterogeneity in the onset of viremia. These results suggest that the likelihood for successful infection of a ruminant host is affected by the number of infectious mosquitoes biting, but also highlights that a single bite of an infectious mosquito can result in disease. The per bite mosquito-to-host transmission efficiency was estimated at 28% (95% confidence interval: 15 - 47%). We subsequently combined this transmission efficiency with estimates for life traits of Aedes aegypti or related mosquitoes into a Ross-McDonald mathematical model to illustrate scenarios under which major RVFV outbreaks could occur in naïve populations (i.e., R0 >1). The model revealed that relatively high vector-to-host ratios as well as mosquitoes feeding preferably on competent hosts are required for R0 to exceed 1. Altogether, this study highlights the importance of experiments that mimic natural exposure to RVFV. The experiments facilitate a better understanding of the natural progression of disease and a direct way to obtain epidemiological parameters for mathematical models.

Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches

Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes , Anopheles , and Culex spp. which transmit dengue, Zika, chikungunya, West Nile, malaria, and others) are of increasing concern for global public health. These vectors are geographically shifting under climate and other anthropogenic changes. As small-bodied ectotherms, mosquitoes are strongly affected by temperature, which causes unimodal responses in mosquito life history traits (e.g., biting rate, adult mortality rate, mosquito development rate, and probability of egg-to-adult survival) that exhibit upper and lower thermal limits and intermediate thermal optima in laboratory studies. However, it remains unknown how mosquito thermal responses measured in laboratory experiments relate to the realized thermal responses of mosquitoes in the field. To address this gap, we leverage thousands of global mosquito occurrences and geospatial satellite data at high spatial resolution to construct machine-learning based species distribution models, from which vector thermal responses are estimated. We apply methods to restrict models to the relevant mosquito activity season and to conduct ecologically-plausible spatial background sampling centered around ecoregions for comparison to mosquito occurrence records. We found that thermal minima estimated from laboratory studies were highly correlated with those from the species distributions (r = 0.90). The thermal optima were less strongly correlated (r = 0.69). For most species, we did not detect thermal maxima from their observed distributions so were unable to compare to laboratory-based estimates. The results suggest that laboratory studies have the potential to be highly transportable to predicting lower thermal limits and thermal optima of mosquitoes in the field. At the same time, lab-based models likely capture physiological limits on mosquito persistence at high temperatures that are not apparent from field-based observational studies but may critically determine mosquito responses to climate warming.

Seasonality and the persistence of vector-borne pathogens

Many vector-borne diseases are affected by the seasonality of the environment. Yet, seasonality can act on distinct steps of the life cycle of the pathogen and it is often difficult to predict the influence of the periodic fluctuations of the environment on the basic reproduction ratio R0 of vector-borne pathogens. Here, we analyse a general vector-borne disease model and we account for periodic fluctuations of different components of the pathogen's life cycle. We develop a perturbation analysis framework to obtain useful approximations to evaluate the overall consequences of seasonality on the R0 of the pathogen. This analysis reveals when seasonality is expected to increase or to decrease pathogen persistence. We show that seasonality in vector density or in the biting rate of the vector can have opposite effects on persistence and we provide a useful biological explanation for this result based on the covariance between key compartments of the epidemiological model. This framework could be readily extended to explore the influence of seasonality on other components of the life cycle of vector-borne pathogens.

Climate and fertility amid a public health crisis

One line of enquiry in demographic research assesses whether climate affects fertility. We extend this literature by examining the ramifications of climate conditions on fertility over a period of public health crisis in a highly unequal, urban middle-income country. We use monthly data for Brazil's 5,564 municipalities and apply spatial fixed-effects models to account for unobserved municipal heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Findings suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are associated with declines in births. We also show that changes in response to climate conditions became greater during the Zika epidemic, particularly in urban areas. Combined, findings highlight the value of understanding the intersections between climate and fertility across geographic boundaries and during this public health crisis. Epidemics have become more important in people's lives with the recurring emergence of novel infectious disease threats, such as Zika and Covid-19.

A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk

BACKGROUND

Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used.

METHODS

We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.).

RESULTS

We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002-2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping.

Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics

Yellow Fever (YF), a mosquito-borne disease, requires ongoing surveillance and prevention due to its persistence and ability to cause major epidemics, including one that began in Brazil in 2016. Forecasting based on factors influencing YF risk can improve efficiency in prevention. This study aimed to produce weekly forecasts of YF occurrence and incidence in Brazil using weekly meteorological and ecohydrological conditions. Occurrence was forecast as the probability of observing any cases, and incidence was forecast to represent morbidity if YF occurs. We fit gamma hurdle models, selecting predictors from several meteorological and ecohydrological factors, based on forecast accuracy defined by receiver operator characteristic curves and mean absolute error. We fit separate models for data before and after the start of the 2016 outbreak, forecasting occurrence and incidence for all municipalities of Brazil weekly. Different predictor sets were found to produce most accurate forecasts in each time period, and forecast accuracy was high for both time periods. Temperature, precipitation, and previous YF burden were most influential predictors among models. Minimum, maximum, mean, and range of weekly temperature, precipitation, and humidity contributed to forecasts, with optimal lag times of 2, 6, and 7 weeks depending on time period. Results from this study show the use of environmental predictors in providing regular forecasts of YF burden and producing nationwide forecasts. Weekly forecasts, which can be produced using the forecast model developed in this study, are beneficial for informing immediate preparedness measures.

Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Aedes mosquitoes are the primary vectors for the spread of viruses like dengue (DENV), zika (ZIKV) and chikungunya (CHIKV), all of which affect humans. Those diseases contribute to global public health issues because of their great dispersion in rural and urban areas. Mathematical and statistical models have become helpful in understanding these diseases' epidemiological dynamics. However, modelling the complexity of a real phenomenon, such as a viral disease, should consider several factors. This scoping review aims to document, identify and classify the most important factors as well as the modelling strategies for the spread of DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct searches in electronic bibliographic databases such as PubMed, MathSciNet and the Web of Science for full-text peer-reviewed articles written in English, French and Spanish. These articles should use mathematical and statistical modelling frameworks to study dengue, zika and chikungunya, and their cocirculation/coinfection with other diseases, with a publication date between 1 January 2011 and 31 July 2023. Eligible studies should employ deterministic, stochastic or statistical modelling approaches, consider control measures and incorporate parameters' estimation or considering calibration/validation approaches. We will exclude articles focusing on clinical/laboratory experiments or theoretical articles that do not include any case study. Two reviewers specialised in zoonotic diseases and mathematical/statistical modelling will independently screen and retain relevant studies. Data extraction will be performed using a structured form, and the findings of the study will be summarised through classification and descriptive analysis. Three scoping reviews will be published, each focusing on one disease and its cocirculation/co-infection with other diseases.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol is exempt from ethics approval because it is carried out on published manuscripts and without the participation of humans and/or animals. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations in conferences.

The biting rate of Aedes aegypti and its variability: A systematic review (1970-2022)

BACKGROUND

Transmission models have a long history in the study of mosquito-borne disease dynamics. The mosquito biting rate (MBR) is an important parameter in these models, however, estimating its value empirically is complex. Modeling studies obtain biting rate values from various types of studies, each of them having its strengths and limitations. Thus, understanding these study designs and the factors that contribute to MBR estimates and their variability is an important step towards standardizing these estimates. We do this for an important arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We perform a systematic review using search terms such as 'biting rate' and 'biting frequency' combined with 'Aedes aegypti' ('Ae. aegypti' or 'A. aegypti'). We screened 3,201 articles from PubMed and ProQuest databases, of which 21 met our inclusion criteria. Two broader types of studies are identified: human landing catch (HLC) studies and multiple feeding studies. We analyze the biting rate data provided as well as the methodologies used in these studies to characterize the variability of these estimates across temporal, spatial, and environmental factors and to identify the strengths and limitations of existing methodologies. Based on these analyses, we present two approaches to estimate population mean per mosquito biting rate: one that combines studies estimating the number of bites taken per gonotrophic cycle and the gonotrophic cycle duration, and a second that uses data from histological studies. Based on one histological study dataset, we estimate biting rates of Ae. aegypti (0.41 and 0.35 bite/mosquito-day in Thailand and Puerto Rico, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our review reinforces the importance of engaging with vector biology when using mosquito biting rate data in transmission modeling studies. For Ae. aegypti, this includes understanding the variation of the gonotrophic cycle duration and the number of bites per gonotrophic cycle, as well as recognizing the potential for spatial and temporal variability. To address these variabilities, we advocate for site-specific data and the development of a standardized approach to estimate the biting rate.

Humidity - The overlooked variable in the thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Vector-borne diseases cause significant financial and human loss, with billions of dollars spent on control. Arthropod vectors experience a complex suite of environmental factors that affect fitness, population growth and species interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Temperature and water availability are two of the most important abiotic variables influencing their distributions and abundances. While extensive research on temperature exists, the influence of humidity on vector and pathogen parameters affecting disease dynamics are less understood. Humidity is often underemphasized, and when considered, is often treated as independent of temperature even though desiccation likely contributes to declines in trait performance at warmer temperatures. This Perspectives explores how humidity shapes the thermal performance of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. We summarize what is known about its effects and propose a conceptual model for how temperature and humidity interact to shape the range of temperatures across which mosquitoes persist and achieve high transmission potential. We discuss how failing to account for these interactions hinders efforts to forecast transmission dynamics and respond to epidemics of mosquito-borne infections. We outline future research areas that will ground the effects of humidity on the thermal biology of pathogen transmission in a theoretical and empirical framework to improve spatial and temporal prediction of vector-borne pathogen transmission.

Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number

For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], a measure of a disease's epidemic potential, is highly temperature-dependent. Recent work characterizing these temperature dependencies has highlighted how climate change may impact geographic disease spread. We extend this prior work by examining how newly emerging diseases, like Zika, will be impacted by specific future climate change scenarios in four diverse regions of Brazil, a country that has been profoundly impacted by Zika. We estimated a [Formula: see text], derived from a compartmental transmission model, characterizing Zika (and, for comparison, dengue) transmission potential as a function of temperature-dependent biological parameters specific to Aedes aegypti. We obtained historical temperature data for the five-year period 2015-2019 and projections for 2045-2049 by fitting cubic spline interpolations to data from simulated atmospheric data provided by the CMIP-6 project (specifically, generated by the GFDL-ESM4 model), which provides projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). These four SSP scenarios correspond to varying levels of climate change severity. We applied this approach to four Brazilian cities (Manaus, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo) that represent diverse climatic regions. Our model predicts that the [Formula: see text] for Zika peaks at 2.7 around 30°C, while for dengue it peaks at 6.8 around 31°C. We find that the epidemic potential of Zika will increase beyond current levels in Brazil in all of the climate scenarios. For Manaus, we predict that the annual [Formula: see text] range will increase from 2.1-2.5, to 2.3-2.7, for Recife we project an increase from 0.4-1.9 to 0.6-2.3, for Rio de Janeiro from 0-1.9 to 0-2.3, and for São Paulo from 0-0.3 to 0-0.7. As Zika immunity wanes and temperatures increase, there will be increasing epidemic potential and longer transmission seasons, especially in regions where transmission is currently marginal. Surveillance systems should be implemented and sustained for early detection.

Public Health Emergency Preparedness After COVID-19

Policy Points The critical task of preparedness is inseparable from the regular work of advancing population health and health equity.

From perplexing to predictive: are we ready to forecast insect disease susceptibility in a warming world?

Insects are critical to our ecosystems, but we do not fully understand their future in our warming world. Rising temperatures are affecting insect physiology in myriad ways, including changes to their immune systems and the ability to fight infection. Whether predicted changes in temperature will contribute to insect mortality or success, and the role of disease in their future survival, remains unclear. Although heat can enhance immunity by activating the integrated defense system (e.g. via the production of protective molecules such as heat-shock proteins) and accelerating enzyme activity, heat can also compromise the immune system through energetic-resource trade-offs and damage. The responses to heat are highly variable among species. The reasons for this variability are poorly known, and we are lagging in our understanding of how and why the immune system responds to changes in temperature. In this Commentary, we highlight the variation in insect immune responses to heat and the likely underlying mechanisms. We suggest that we are currently limited in our ability to predict the effects of rising temperatures on insect immunity and disease susceptibility, largely owing to incomplete information, coupled with a lack of tools for data integration. Moreover, existing data are concentrated on a relatively small number of insect Orders. We provide suggestions for a path towards making more accurate predictions, which will require studies with realistic temperature exposures and housing design, and a greater understanding of both the thermal biology of the immune system and connections between immunity and the physiological responses to heat.

Effects of constant temperature and daily fluctuating temperature on the transovarial transmission and life cycle of Aedes albopictus infected with Zika virus

Introduction

Numerous studies on the mosquito life cycle and transmission efficacy were performed under constant temperatures. Mosquito in wild, however, is not exposed to constant temperature but is faced with temperature variation on a daily basis.

Methods

In the present study, the mosquito life cycle and Zika virus transmission efficiency were conducted at daily fluctuating temperatures and constant temperatures. Aedes albopictus was infected with the Zika virus orally. The oviposition and survival of the infected mosquitoes and hatching rate, the growth cycle of larvae at each stage, and the infection rate (IR) of the progeny mosquitoes were performed at two constant temperatures (23°C and 31°C) and a daily temperature range (DTR, 23-31°C).

Results

It showed that the biological parameters of mosquitoes under DTR conditions were significantly different from that under constant temperatures. Mosquitoes in DTR survived longer, laid more eggs (mean number: 36.5 vs. 24.2), and had a higher hatching rate (72.3% vs. 46.5%) but a lower pupation rate (37.9% vs. 81.1%) and emergence rate (72.7% vs. 91.7%) than that in the high-temperature group (constant 31°C). When compared to the low-temperature group (constant 23°C), larvae mosquitoes in DTR developed faster (median days: 9 vs. 23.5) and adult mosquitoes carried higher Zika viral RNA load (median log₁₀ RNA copies/μl: 5.28 vs. 3.86). However, the temperature or temperature pattern has no effect on transovarial transmission.

Discussion

Those results indicated that there are significant differences between mosquito development and reproductive cycles under fluctuating and constant temperature conditions, and fluctuating temperature is more favorable for mosquitos' survival and reproduction. The data would support mapping and predicting the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in the future and establishing an early warning system for Zika virus epidemics.

Modeling the spread of the Zika virus by sexual and mosquito transmission

Zika Virus (ZIKV) is a flavivirus that is transmitted predominantly by the Aedes species of mosquito, but also through sexual contact, blood transfusions, and congenitally from mother to child. Although approximately 80% of ZIKV infections are asymptomatic and typical symptoms are mild, multiple studies have demonstrated a causal link between ZIKV and severe diseases such as Microcephaly and Guillain Barré Syndrome. Two goals of this study are to improve ZIKV models by considering the spread dynamics of ZIKV as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and also to approximate the degree of under-reporting. In order to accomplish these objectives, we propose a compartmental model that allows for the analysis of spread dynamics as both a vector-borne and sexually transmitted disease, and fit it to the ZIKV incidence reported to the National System of Public Health Surveillance in 27 municipalities of Colombia between January 1 2015 and December 31 2017. We demonstrate that our model can represent the infection patterns over this time period with high confidence. In addition, we argue that the degree of under-reporting is also well estimated. Using the model we assess potential viability of public health scenarios for mitigating disease spread and find that targeting the sexual pathway alone has negligible impact on overall spread, but if the proportion of risky sexual behavior increases then it may become important. Targeting mosquitoes remains the best approach of those considered. These results may be useful for public health organizations and governments to construct and implement suitable health policies and reduce the impact of the Zika outbreaks.

Decoding the Role of Temperature in RNA Virus Infections

RNA viruses include respiratory viruses, such as coronaviruses and influenza viruses, as well as vector-borne viruses, like dengue and West Nile virus. RNA viruses like these encounter various environments when they copy themselves and spread from cell to cell or host to host. Ex vivo differences, such as geographical location and humidity, affect their stability and transmission, while in vivo differences, such as pH and host gene expression, impact viral receptor binding, viral replication, and the host immune response against the viral infection. A critical factor affecting RNA viruses both ex vivo and in vivo, and defining the outcome of viral infections and the direction of viral evolution, is temperature. In this minireview, we discuss the impact of temperature on viral replication, stability, transmission, and adaptation, as well as the host innate immune response. Improving our understanding of how RNA viruses function, survive, and spread at different temperatures will improve our models of viral replication and transmission risk analyses.

How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission

In models of mosquito-borne transmission, the mosquito biting rate is an influential parameter, and understanding the heterogeneity of the process of biting is important, as biting is usually assumed to be relatively homogeneous across individuals, with time-between-bites described by an exponentially distributed process. However, these assumptions have not been addressed through laboratory experimentation. We experimentally investigated the daily biting habits of Ae. aegypti at three temperatures (24°C, 28°C, and 32°C) and determined that there was individual heterogeneity in biting habits (number of bites, timing of bites, etc.). We further explored the consequences of biting heterogeneity using an individual-based model designed to examine whether a particular biting profile determines whether a mosquito is more or less likely to 1) become exposed given a single index case of dengue (DENV) and 2) transmit to a susceptible human individual. Our experimental results indicate that there is heterogeneity among individuals and among temperature treatments. We further show that this results in altered probabilities of transmission of DENV to and from individual mosquitoes based on biting profiles. While current model representation of biting may work under some conditions, it might not uniformly be the best fit for this process. Our data also confirm that biting is a non-monotonic process with temperatures around 28°C being optimum.

Scaling effects of temperature on parasitism from individuals to populations

Parasitism is expected to change in a warmer future, but whether warming leads to substantial increases in parasitism remains unclear. Understanding how warming effects on parasitism in individual hosts (e.g. parasite load) translate to effects on population-level parasitism (e.g. prevalence, R0 ) remains a major knowledge gap. We conducted a literature review and identified 24 host-parasite systems that had information on the temperature dependence of parasitism at both individual host and host population levels: 13 vector-borne systems and 11 environmentally transmitted systems. We found a strong positive correlation between the thermal optima of individual- and population-level parasitism, although several of the environmentally transmitted systems exhibited thermal optima >5°C apart between individual and population levels. Parasitism thermal optima were close to vector performance thermal optima in vector-borne systems but not hosts in environmentally transmitted systems, suggesting these thermal mismatches may be more common in certain types of host-parasite systems. We also adapted and simulated simple models for both types of transmission modes and found the same pattern across the two modes: thermal optima were more strongly correlated across scales when there were more traits linking individual- to population-level processes. Generally, our results suggest that information on the temperature dependence, and specifically the thermal optimum, at either the individual or population level should provide a useful-although not quantitatively exact-baseline for predicting temperature dependence at the other level, especially in vector-borne parasite systems. Environmentally transmitted parasitism may operate by a different set of rules, in which temperature dependence is decoupled in some systems, requiring the need for trait-based studies of temperature dependence at individual and population levels.

Modelling the temperature suitability for the risk of West Nile Virus establishment in European Culex pipiens populations

Increases in temperature and extreme weather events due to global warming can create an environment that is beneficial to mosquito populations, changing and possibly increasing the suitable geographical range for many vector-borne diseases. West Nile Virus (WNV) is a flavivirus, maintained in a mosquito-avian host cycle that is usually asymptomatic but can cause primarily flu-like symptoms in human and equid accidental hosts. In rare circumstances, serious disease and death are possible outcomes for both humans and horses. The main European vector of WNV is the Culex pipiens mosquito. This study examines the effect of environmental temperature on WNV establishment in Europe via Culex pipiens populations through use of a basic reproduction number ( R 0 ${R_0}$ ) model. A metric of thermal suitability derived from R 0 ${R_0}$ was developed by collating thermal responses of different Culex pipiens traits and combining them through use of a next-generation matrix. WNV establishment was determined to be possible between 14°C and 34.3°C, with the optimal temperature at 23.7°C. The suitability measure was plotted against monthly average temperatures in 2020 and the number of months with high suitability mapped across Europe. The average number of suitable months for each year from 2013 to 2019 was also calculated and validated with reported equine West Nile fever cases from 2013 to 2019. The widespread thermal suitability for WNV establishment highlights the importance of European surveillance for this disease and the need for increased research into mosquito and bird distribution.

Temperature impacts the environmental suitability for malaria transmission by Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles stephensi

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the spatiotemporal dynamics of many organisms, including insects that transmit the pathogens responsible for vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Temperature is an especially important constraint on the fitness of a wide variety of ectothermic insects. A mechanistic understanding of how temperature impacts traits of ectotherms, and thus the distribution of ectotherms and vector-borne infections, is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission of VBDs like malaria. However, the response of transmission to temperature and other drivers is complex, as thermal traits of ectotherms are typically nonlinear, and they interact to determine transmission constraints. In this study, we assess and compare the effect of temperature on the transmission of two malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, by two malaria vector species, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles stephensi. We model the nonlinear responses of temperature dependent mosquito and parasite traits (mosquito development rate, bite rate, fecundity, proportion of eggs surviving to adulthood, vector competence, mortality rate, and parasite development rate) and incorporate these traits into a suitability metric based on a model for the basic reproductive number across temperatures. Our model predicts that the optimum temperature for transmission suitability is similar for the four mosquito-parasite combinations assessed in this study, but may differ at the thermal limits. More specifically, we found significant differences in the upper thermal limit between parasites spread by the same mosquito (A. stephensi) and between mosquitoes carrying P. falciparum. In contrast, at the lower thermal limit the significant differences were primarily between the mosquito species that both carried the same pathogen (e.g., A. stephensi and A. gambiae both with P. falciparum). Using prevalence data, we show that the transmission suitability metric S T $$ S(T) $$ calculated from our mechanistic model is consistent with observed P. falciparum prevalence in Africa and Asia but is equivocal for P. vivax prevalence in Asia, and inconsistent with P. vivax prevalence in Africa. We mapped risk to illustrate the number of months various areas in Africa and Asia predicted to be suitable for malaria transmission based on this suitability metric. This mapping provides spatially explicit predictions for suitability and transmission risk.

Model-Based Projection of Zika Infection Risk with Temperature Effect: A Case Study in Southeast Asia

Zika virus (ZIKV) recently reemerged in the Americas and rapidly expanded in global range. It is posing significant concerns of public health due to its link to birth defects and its complicated transmission routes. Southeast Asia is badly hit by ZIKV, but limited information was found on the transmission potential of ZIKV in the region. In this paper, we develop a new dynamic process-based mathematical model, which incorporates the interactions among humans (sexual transmissibility), and between human and mosquitoes (biting transmissibility), as well as the essential impacts of temperature. The model is first validated by fitting the 2016 ZIKV outbreak in Singapore via Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Based on that, we demonstrate the effects of temperature on mosquito ecology and ZIKV transmission, and further clarify the potential risk of ZIKV outbreak in Southeast Asian countries. The results show that (i) the estimated infection reproduction number [Formula: see text] in Singapore fell from 6.93 (in which the contribution of sexual transmission was 0.89) to 0.24 after the deployment of control strategies; (ii) the optimal temperature for the reproduction of ZIKV infections and adult mosquitoes are estimated to be [Formula: see text]C and [Formula: see text]C, respectively; and (iii) the [Formula: see text] in Southeast Asia could be between 3 and 7, with an inverted-U shape around the year. The large values of [Formula: see text] and the simulative patterns of ZIKV transmission in each country highlights the high risk of ZIKV attack in Southeast Asia.

Environmental Persistence of the World's Most Burdensome Infectious and Parasitic Diseases

Humans live in complex socio-ecological systems where we interact with parasites and pathogens that spend time in abiotic and biotic environmental reservoirs (e.g., water, air, soil, other vertebrate hosts, vectors, intermediate hosts). Through a synthesis of published literature, we reviewed the life cycles and environmental persistence of 150 parasites and pathogens tracked by the World Health Organization's Global Burden of Disease study. We used those data to derive the time spent in each component of a pathogen's life cycle, including total time spent in humans versus all environmental stages. We found that nearly all infectious organisms were “environmentally mediated” to some degree, meaning that they spend time in reservoirs and can be transmitted from those reservoirs to human hosts. Correspondingly, many infectious diseases were primarily controlled through environmental interventions (e.g., vector control, water sanitation), whereas few (14%) were primarily controlled by integrated methods (i.e., combining medical and environmental interventions). Data on critical life history attributes for most of the 150 parasites and pathogens were difficult to find and often uncertain, potentially hampering efforts to predict disease dynamics and model interactions between life cycle time scales and infection control strategies. We hope that this synthetic review and associated database serve as a resource for understanding both common patterns among parasites and pathogens and important variability and uncertainty regarding particular infectious diseases. These insights can be used to improve systems-based approaches for controlling environmentally mediated diseases of humans in an era where the environment is rapidly changing.

Structure-Based Optimization and Characterization of Macrocyclic Zika Virus NS2B-NS3 Protease Inhibitors

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a human pathogenic arbovirus. So far, neither a specific treatment nor a vaccination against ZIKV infections has been approved. Starting from our previously described lead structure, a series of 29 new macrocyclic inhibitors of the Zika virus protease containing different linker motifs have been synthesized. By selecting hydrophobic d-amino acids as part of the linker, numerous inhibitors with K_i values < 5 nM were obtained. For 12 inhibitors, crystal structures in complex with the ZIKV protease up to 1.30 Å resolution were determined, which contribute to the understanding of the observed structure-activity relationship (SAR). In immunofluorescence assays, an antiviral effect was observed for compound 26 containing a d-homocyclohexylalanine residue in its linker segment. Due to its excellent selectivity profile and low cytotoxicity, this inhibitor scaffold could be a suitable starting point for the development of peptidic drugs against the Zika virus and related flaviviruses.

Predicting the Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases in a Warming World

Predicting how climate warming affects vector borne diseases is a key research priority. The prevailing approach uses the basic reproductive number (R0) to predict warming effects. However, R0 is derived under assumptions of stationary thermal environments; using it to predict disease spread in non-stationary environments could lead to erroneous predictions. Here, we develop a trait-based mathematical model that can predict disease spread and prevalence for any vector borne disease under any type of non-stationary environment. We parameterize the model with trait response data for the Malaria vector and pathogen to test the latest IPCC predictions on warmer-than-average winters and hotter-than-average summers. We report three key findings. First, the R0 formulation commonly used to investigate warming effects on disease spread violates the assumptions underlying its derivation as the dominant eigenvalue of a linearized host-vector model. As a result, it overestimates disease spread in cooler environments and underestimates it in warmer environments, proving its predictions to be unreliable even in a constant thermal environment. Second, hotter-than-average summers both narrow the thermal limits for disease prevalence, and reduce prevalence within those limits, to a much greater degree than warmer-than-average winters, highlighting the importance of hot extremes in driving disease burden. Third, while warming reduces infected vector populations through the compounding effects of adult mortality, and infected host populations through the interactive effects of mortality and transmission, uninfected vector populations prove surprisingly robust to warming. This suggests that ecological predictions of warming-induced reductions in disease burden should be tempered by the evolutionary possibility of vector adaptation to both cooler and warmer climates.

Temperate Conditions Limit Zika Virus Genome Replication

Zika virus is a mosquito-borne flavivirus known to cause severe birth defects and neuroimmunological disorders. We have previously demonstrated that mosquito transmission of Zika virus decreases with temperature. While transmission was optimized at 29°C, it was limited at cool temperatures (<22°C) due to poor virus establishment in the mosquitoes. Temperature is one of the strongest drivers of vector-borne disease transmission due to its profound effect on ectothermic mosquito vectors, viruses, and their interaction. Although there is substantial evidence of temperature effects on arbovirus replication and dissemination inside mosquitoes, little is known about whether temperature affects virus replication directly or indirectly through mosquito physiology. In order to determine the mechanisms behind temperature-induced changes in Zika virus transmission potential, we investigated different steps of the virus replication cycle in mosquito cells (C6/36) at optimal (28°C) and cool (20°C) temperatures. We found that the cool temperature did not alter Zika virus entry or translation, but it affected genome replication and reduced the amount of double-stranded RNA replication intermediates. If replication complexes were first formed at 28°C and the cells were subsequently shifted to 20°C, the late steps in the virus replication cycle were efficiently completed. These data suggest that cool temperature decreases the efficiency of Zika virus genome replication in mosquito cells. This phenotype was observed in the Asian lineage of Zika virus, while the African lineage Zika virus was less restricted at 20°C. IMPORTANCE With half of the human population at risk, arboviral diseases represent a substantial global health burden. Zika virus, previously known to cause sporadic infections in humans, emerged in the Americas in 2015 and quickly spread worldwide. There was an urgent need to better understand the disease pathogenesis and develop therapeutics and vaccines, as well as to understand, predict, and control virus transmission. In order to efficiently predict the seasonality and geography for Zika virus transmission, we need a deeper understanding of the host-pathogen interactions and how they can be altered by environmental factors such as temperature. Identifying the step in the virus replication cycle that is inhibited under cool conditions can have implications in modeling the temperature suitability for arbovirus transmission as global environmental patterns change. Understanding the link between pathogen replication and environmental conditions can potentially be exploited to develop new vector control strategies in the future.

Effects of Guangzhou seasonal climate change on the development of Aedes albopictus and its susceptibility to DENV-2

The susceptibility of Asian tiger mosquitoes to DENV-2 in different seasons was observed in simulated field environments as a reference to design dengue fever control strategies in Guangzhou. The life table experiments of mosquitoes in four seasons were carried out in the field. The susceptibility of Ae. albopictus to dengue virus was observed in both environments in Guangzhou in summer and winter. Ae. albopictus was infected with dengue virus by oral feeding. On day 7 and 14 after infection, the viral load in the head, ovary, and midgut of the mosquito was detected using real-time fluorescent quantitative PCR. Immune-associated gene expression in infected mosquitoes was performed using quantitative real-time reverse transcriptase PCR. The hatching rate and pupation rate of Ae. albopictus larvae in different seasons differed significantly. The winter hatching rate of larvae was lower than that in summer, and the incubation time was longer than in summer. In the winter field environment, Ae. albopictus still underwent basic growth and development processes. Mosquitoes in the simulated field environment were more susceptible to DENV-2 than those in the simulated laboratory environment. In the midgut, viral RNA levels on day 7 in summer were higher than those on day 7 in winter (F = 14.459, P = 0.01); ovarian viral RNA levels on day 7 in summer were higher than those on day 7 in winter (F = 8.656, P < 0.001), but there was no significant difference in the viral load at other time points (P > 0.05). Dicer-2 mRNA expression on day 7 in winter was 4.071 times than that on day 7 in summer: the viral load and Dicer-2 expression correlated moderately. Ae. albopictus could still develop and transmit dengue virus in winter in Guangzhou. Mosquitoes under simulated field conditions were more susceptible to DENV-2 than those under simulated laboratory conditions.

Neuroanatomical abnormalities in a nonhuman primate model of congenital Zika virus infection

We evaluated neuropathological consequences of fetal ZIKV exposure in rhesus monkeys, a translatable animal model for human neural development, by carrying out quantitative neuroanatomical analyses of the nearly full-term brains of fetuses infected with ZIKV and procedure-matched controls. For each animal, a complete cerebral hemisphere was evaluated using immunohistochemical (IHC) and neuroanatomical techniques to detect virus, identify affected cell types, and evaluate gross neuroanatomical abnormalities. IHC staining revealed the presence of ZIKV in the frontal lobe, which contained activated microglia and showed increased apoptosis of immature neurons. ZIKV-infected animals exhibited macrostructural changes within the visual pathway. Regional differences tracked with the developmental timing of the brain, suggesting inflammatory processes related to viral infiltration swept through the cortex, followed by a wave of cell death resulting in morphological changes. These findings may help explain why some infants born with normal sized heads during the ZIKV epidemic manifest developmental challenges as they age.

A review exploring the overarching burden of Zika virus with emphasis on epidemiological case studies from Brazil

This paper explores the main factors for mosquito-borne transmission of the Zika virus by focusing on environmental, anthropogenic, and social risks. A literature review was conducted bringing together related information from this genre of research from peer-reviewed publications. It was observed that environmental conditions, especially precipitation, humidity, and temperature, played a role in the transmission. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors including sanitation, urbanization, and environmental pollution promote the transmission by affecting the mosquito density. In addition, socioeconomic factors such as poverty as well as social inequality and low-quality housing have also an impact since these are social factors that limit access to certain facilities or infrastructure which, in turn, promote transmission when absent (e.g., piped water and screened windows). Finally, the paper presents short-, mid-, and long-term preventative solutions together with future perspectives. This is the first review exploring the effects of anthropogenic aspects on Zika transmission with a special emphasis in Brazil.

Thermal limits in the face of infectious disease: How important are pathogens?

The frequency and severity of both extreme thermal events and disease outbreaks are predicted to continue to shift as a consequence of global change. As a result, species persistence will likely be increasingly dependent on the interaction between thermal stress and pathogen exposure. Missing from the intersection between studies of infectious disease and thermal ecology, however, is the capacity for pathogen exposure to directly disrupt a host's ability to cope with thermal stress. Common sources of variation in host thermal performance, which are likely to interact with infection, are also often unaccounted for when assessing either the vulnerability of species or the potential for disease spread during extreme thermal events. Here, we describe how infection can directly alter host thermal limits, to a degree that exceeds the level of variation commonly seen across species large geographic distributions and that equals the detrimental impact of other ecologically relevant stressors. We then discuss various sources of heterogeneity within and between populations that are likely to be important in mediating the impact that infection has on variation in host thermal limits. In doing so we highlight how infection is a widespread and important source of variation in host thermal performance, which will have implications for both the persistence and vulnerability of species and the dynamics and transmission of disease in a more thermally extreme world.

The Extrinsic Incubation Period of Zika Virus in Florida Mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

The Asian genotype of Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil in 2015 and subsequently spread throughout the Americas. In July 2016, Florida experienced its first locally acquired ZIKV infection in the continental U.S. Concerns about health risks from ZIKV infection have increased the need to investigate the interactions between potential mosquito vectors and ZIKV. The time it takes for an arbovirus to propagate within a mosquito, and become transmissible, is the extrinsic incubation period (EIP). The EIP for potential mosquito vectors in Florida is unknown. To address this gap in the understanding of ZIKV epidemiology, Florida Aedes aegypti (L.) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse) were orally exposed to ZIKV infected blood meals and fully engorged mosquitoes were held at a constant temperature of 28 °C through the duration of the experiment. Saliva expectorates were collected from cohorts of mosquitoes and tested for the presence of ZIKV at three-day intervals over a period of 24 days to allow for an evaluation of the EIP of the emergent Asian lineage of ZIKV. High rates of infected bodies in Ae. albopictus (75–94%) and Ae. aegypti (68–86%) were observed throughout the incubation period, which did not differ by species. Higher rates of disseminated infection were observed later during the incubation period but did not differ between species. We calculated the 50% EIP to be shorter in Ae. albopictus than Ae. aegypti (16.2 and 18.2 days post infection, respectively). The competence for ZIKV observed in both species may contribute to high rates of ZIKV transmission in Florida populations.

Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling

Mosquitoes transmit several infectious diseases that pose significant threat to human health. Temperature along with other environmental factors at breeding and resting locations play a role in the organismal development and abundance of mosquitoes. Accurate analysis of mosquito population dynamics requires information on microclimatic conditions at breeding and resting locations. In this study, we develop a regression model to characterize microclimatic temperature based on ambient environmental conditions. Data were collected by placing sensor loggers at resting and breeding locations such as storm drains across Houston, TX. Corresponding weather data was obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website. Features extracted from these data sources along with contextual information on location were used to develop a Generalized Linear Model for predicting microclimate temperatures. We also analyzed mosquito population dynamics for Aedes albopictus under ambient and microclimatic conditions using system dynamic (SD) modelling to demonstrate the need for accurate microclimatic temperatures in population models. The microclimate prediction model had an R² value of ~ 95% and average prediction error of ~ 1.5 °C indicating that microclimate temperatures can be reliably estimated from the ambient environmental conditions. SD model analysis indicates that some microclimates in Texas could result in larger populations of juvenile and adult Aedes albopictus mosquitoes surviving the winter without requiring dormancy.

Deforestation hotspots, climate crisis, and the perfect scenario for the next epidemic: The Amazon time bomb

Currently most researchers consider humanity's extermination of biodiversity as the antecedent of ideal conditions for the emergence of new viruses and diseases. Animals lose their natural habitats due to extensive landscape changes, consequently crowding them together and increasing their interaction with humans. Additionally, it is also important to emphasise the increasing concern on climate change because climate can modify the distribution and intensity of other diseases such as vector-borne disease. Unfortunately, the global resources for biodiversity conservation were diluted by government support for activities harmful to the environment. A tragic example is from the Amazon rainforest, that experienced fast environmental depletion and high social inequalities. Extractive systems and extensive land use on a large scale have induced deforestation, great loss of biodiversity, carbon emission, and water contamination, leading to indigenous land dispossession, violence, and rural-urban migration. The deforested areas in the Amazon region increase considerably at an alarming speed each year. The COVID-19 pandemic is an evidence to show how viruses and pathogens move further and faster than before, which means we must also show a quick response. It requires financing and, mostly, changes in human behaviour. The message is simple: we need to rethink our current relationship with nature and with ourselves, which should lead to a social transformation towards the sustainable use of the available resources.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Insects and their pathogens in a changing climate

The complex nature of climate change-mediated multitrophic interaction is an underexplored area, but has the potential to dramatically shift transmission and distribution of many insects and their pathogens, placing some populations closer to the brink of extinction. However, for individual insect-pathogen interactions climate change will have complicated hard-to-anticipate impacts. Thus, both pathogen virulence and insect host immunity are intrinsically linked with generalized stress responses, and in both pathogen and host have extensive trade-offs with nutrition (e.g., host plant quality), growth and reproduction. Potentially alleviating or exasperating these impacts, some pathogens and hosts respond genetically and rapidly to environmental shifts. This review identifies many areas for future research including a particular need to identify how altered global warming interacts with other environmental changes and stressors, and how consistent these impacts are across pathogens and hosts. With that achieved we would be closer to producing an overarching framework to integrate knowledge on all environmental interplay and infectious disease events.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus and ambient temperature: a critical review

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought unprecedented public health, and social and economic challenges. It remains unclear whether seasonal changes in ambient temperature will alter spreading trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. The probable mechanism on this is still lacking. This review summarizes the most recent research data on the effect of ambient temperature on the COVID-19 epidemic characteristic. The available data suggest that (i) mesophilic traits of viruses are different due to their molecular composition; (ii) increasing ambient temperature decreases the persistence of some viruses in aquatic media; (iii) a 1°C increase in the average monthly minimum ambient temperatures (AMMAT) was related to a 0.72% fewer mammalian individuals that would be infected by coronavirus; (iv) proportion of zoonotic viruses of mammals including humans is probably related to their body temperature difference; (v) seasonal divergence between the northern and southern hemispheres may be a significant driver in determining a waved trajectory in the next 2 years. Further research is needed to understand its effects and mechanisms of global temperature change so that effective strategies can be adopted to curb its natural effects. This paper mainly explores possible scientific hypothesis and evidences that local communities and authorities should consider to find optimal solutions that can limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Sex, age, and parental harmonic convergence behavior affect the immune performance of Aedes aegypti offspring

Harmonic convergence is a potential cue, female mosquitoes use to choose male mates. However, very little is known about the benefits this choice confers to offspring performance. Using Aedes aegypti (an important vector of human disease), we investigated whether offspring of converging parental pairs showed differences in immune competence compared to offspring derived from non-converging parental pairs. Here we show that harmonic convergence, along with several other interacting factors (sex, age, reproductive, and physiological status), significantly shaped offspring immune responses (melanization and response to a bacterial challenge). Harmonic convergence had a stronger effect on the immune response of male offspring than on female offspring. Further, female offspring from converging parental pairs disseminated dengue virus more quickly than offspring derived from non-converging parental pairs. Our results provide insight into a wide range of selective pressures shaping mosquito immune function and could have important implications for disease transmission and control.

Effects of changes in temperature on Zika dynamics and control

When a rare pathogen emerges to cause a pandemic, it is critical to understand its dynamics and the impact of mitigation measures. We use experimental data to parametrize a temperature-dependent model of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission dynamics and analyse the effects of temperature variability and control-related parameters on the basic reproduction number (R0) and the final epidemic size of ZIKV. Sensitivity analyses show that these two metrics are largely driven by different parameters, with the exception of temperature, which is the dominant driver of epidemic dynamics in the models. Our R0 estimate has a single optimum temperature (≈30°C), comparable to other published results (≈29°C). However, the final epidemic size is maximized across a wider temperature range, from 24 to 36°C. The models indicate that ZIKV is highly sensitive to seasonal temperature variation. For example, although the model predicts that ZIKV transmission cannot occur at a constant temperature below 23°C (≈ average annual temperature of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), the model predicts substantial epidemics for areas with a mean temperature of 20°C if there is seasonal variation of 10°C (≈ average annual temperature of Tampa, Florida). This suggests that the geographical range of ZIKV is wider than indicated from static R0 models, underscoring the importance of climate dynamics and variation in the context of broader climate change on emerging infectious diseases.

Comparison of Anti-Dengue and Anti-Zika IgG on a Plasmonic Gold Platform with Neutralization Testing

Antibody cross-reactivity confounds testing for dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV). We evaluated anti-DENV and anti-ZIKV IgG detection using a multiplex serological platform (the pGOLD assay, Nirmidas, Palo Alto, CA) in patients from the Asunción metropolitan area in Paraguay, which experiences annual DENV outbreaks but has reported few autochthonous ZIKV infections. Acute-phase sera were tested from 77 patients who presented with a suspected arboviral illness from January to May 2018. Samples were tested for DENV and ZIKV RNA by real-time reverse transcription-PCR, and for DENV nonstructural protein 1 with a lateral-flow immunochromatographic test. Forty-one patients (51.2%) had acute dengue; no acute ZIKV infections were detected. Sixty-five patients (84.4%) had anti-DENV-neutralizing antibodies by focus reduction neutralization testing (FRNT50). Qualitative detection with the pGOLD assay demonstrated good agreement with FRNT50 (kappa = 0.74), and quantitative results were highly correlated between methods (P < 0.001). Only three patients had anti-ZIKV-neutralizing antibodies at titers of 1:55-1:80, and all three had corresponding DENV-neutralizing titers > 1:4,000. Hospitalized dengue cases had significantly higher anti-DENV IgG levels (P < 0.001). Anti-DENV IgG results from the pGOLD assay correlate well with FRNT, and quantitative results may inform patient risk stratification.

Yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil under current and future climate

INTRODUCTION

Yellow fever (YF) is primarily transmitted by Haemagogus species of mosquitoes. Under climate change, mosquitoes and the pathogens that they carry are expected to develop faster, potentially impacting the case count and duration of YF outbreaks. The aim of this study was to determine how YF virus outbreaks in Brazil may change under future climate, using ensemble simulations from regional climate models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three time periods: 2011-2040 (short-term), 2041-2070 (mid-term), and 2071-2100 (long-term).

METHODS

A compartmental model was developed to fit the 2017/18 YF outbreak data in Brazil using least squares optimization. To explore the impact of climate change, temperature-sensitive mosquito parameters were set to change over projected time periods using polynomial equations fitted to their relationship with temperature according to the average temperature for years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 for climate change scenarios using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP4.5/RCP8.5 corresponds to intermediate/high radiative forcing values and to moderate/higher warming trends. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the temperature-sensitive parameters impacted model results, and to determine how vaccination could play a role in reducing YF in Brazil.

RESULTS

Yellow fever case projections for Brazil from the models varied when climate change scenarios were applied, including the peak clinical case incidence, cumulative clinical case incidence, time to peak incidence, and the outbreak duration. Overall, a decrease in YF cases and outbreak duration was observed. Comparing the observed incidence in 2017/18 to the projected incidence in 2070-2100, for RCP4.5, the cumulative case incidence decreased from 184 to 161, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 20 weeks. For RCP8.5, the peak case incidence decreased from 184 to 147, and the outbreak duration decreased from 21 to 17 weeks. The observed decrease was primarily due to temperature increasing beyond that suitable for Haemagogus mosquito survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on mosquito-borne diseases. We found outbreaks of YF may reduce in intensity as temperatures increase in Brazil; however, temperature is not the only factor involved with disease transmission. Other factors must be explored to determine the attributable impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases.