Virulence in malaria: an evolutionary viewpoint

Proliferation in malaria parasites: How resource limitation can prevent evolution of greater virulence

For parasites, robust proliferation within hosts is crucial for establishing the infection and creating opportunities for onward transmission. While faster proliferation enhances transmission rates, it is often assumed to curtail transmission duration by killing the host (virulence), a trade-off constraining parasite evolution. Yet in many diseases, including malaria, the preponderance of infections with mild or absent symptoms suggests that host mortality is not a sufficient constraint, raising the question of what restrains evolution toward faster proliferation. In malaria infections, the maximum rate of proliferation is determined by the burst size, the number of daughter parasites produced per infected red blood cell. Larger burst sizes should expand the pool of infected red blood cells that can be used to produce the specialized transmission forms needed to infect mosquitoes. We use a within-host model parameterized for rodent malaria parasites (Plasmodium chabaudi) to project the transmission consequences of burst size, focusing on initial acute infection where resource limitation and risk of host mortality are greatest. We find that resource limitation restricts evolution toward higher burst sizes below the level predicted by host mortality alone. Our results suggest resource limitation could represent a more general constraint than virulence-transmission trade-offs, preventing evolution towards faster proliferation.

The germ theory revisited: A noncentric view on infection outcome

The germ theory states that pathogenic microorganisms are responsible for causing infectious diseases. The theory is inherently microbe-centric and does not account for variability in disease severity among individuals and asymptomatic carriership-two phenomena indicating an important role for host variability in infection outcome. The basic tenet of the germ theory was recently challenged, and a radically host-centric paradigm referred to as the "full-blown host theory" was proposed. According to this view, the pathogen is reduced to a passive environmental trigger, and the development of disease is instead due to pre-existing immunodeficiencies of the host. Here, we consider the factors that determine disease severity using established knowledge concerning evolutionary biology, microbial pathogenesis, and host-pathogen interactions. We note that the available data support a noncentric view that recognizes key roles for both the causative microbe and the host in dictating infection outcome.

The impact of sterility-mortality tolerance and recovery-transmission trade-offs on host-parasite coevolution

Understanding the coevolutionary dynamics of hosts and their parasites remains a major focus of much theoretical literature. Despite empirical evidence supporting the presence of sterility-mortality tolerance trade-offs in hosts and recovery-transmission trade-offs in parasites, none of the current models have explored the potential outcomes when both trade-offs are considered within a coevolutionary framework. In this study, we consider a model where the host evolves sterility tolerance at the cost of increased mortality and the parasite evolves higher transmission rate at the cost of increased recovery rate (reduced infection duration), and use adaptive dynamics to predict the coevolutionary outcomes under such trade-off assumptions. We particularly aim to understand how our coevolutionary dynamics compare with single species evolutionary models. We find that evolutionary branching in the host can drive the parasite population to branch, but that cycles in the population dynamics can prevent the coexisting strains from reaching their extremes. We also find that varying crowding does not impact the recovery rate when only the parasite evolves, yet coevolution reduces recovery as crowding intensifies. We conclude by discussing how different host and parasite trade-offs shape coevolutionary outcomes, underscoring the pivotal role of trade-offs in coevolution.

Linking avian malaria parasitemia estimates from quantitative PCR and microscopy reveals new infection patterns in Hawai'i

Plasmodium parasites infect thousands of species and provide an exceptional system for studying host-pathogen dynamics, especially for multi-host pathogens. However, understanding these interactions requires an accurate assay of infection. Assessing Plasmodium infections using microscopy on blood smears often misses infections with low parasitemias (the fractions of cells infected), and biases in malaria prevalence estimates will differ among hosts that differ in mean parasitemias. We examined Plasmodium relictum infection and parasitemia using both microscopy of blood smears and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on 299 samples from multiple bird species in Hawai'i and fit models to predict parasitemias from qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values. We used these models to quantify the extent to which microscopy underestimated infection prevalence and to more accurately estimate infection patterns for each species for a large historical study done by microscopy. We found that most qPCR-positive wild-caught birds in Hawaii had low parasitemias (Ct scores ≥35), which were rarely detected by microscopy. The fraction of infections missed by microscopy differed substantially among eight species due to differences in species' parasitemia levels. Infection prevalence was likely 4-5-fold higher than previous microscopy estimates for three introduced species, including Zosterops japonicus, Hawaii's most abundant forest bird, which had low average parasitemias. In contrast, prevalence was likely only 1.5-2.3-fold higher than previous estimates for Himatione sanguinea and Chlorodrepanis virens, two native species with high average parasitemias. Our results indicate that relative patterns of infection among species differ substantially from those observed in previous microscopy studies, and that differences depend on variation in parasitemias among species. Although microscopy of blood smears is useful for estimating the frequency of different Plasmodium stages and host attributes, more sensitive quantitative methods, including qPCR, are needed to accurately estimate and compare infection prevalence among host species.

Drug selection pressure and fitness cost for artemether-resistant Plasmodium berghei ANKA parasites in vivo

BACKGROUND

The clinical use of artemisinin-based combination therapies is threatened by increasing failure rates due to the emergence and spread of multiple drug resistance genes in most human Plasmodium strains. The aim of this study was to generate artemether-resistant (AMR) parasites from Plasmodium berghei ANKA (AMS), and determine their fitness cost.

METHODS

Artemether resistance was generated by increasing drug pressure doses gradually for 9 months. Effective doses (ED50 and ED90) were determined using the 4-day suppressive test, and the indices of resistance (I) at 50% and 90% (I50 and I90) were determined using the ratio of either ED50 or ED90 of AMR to AMS, respectively. The stability of the AMR parasites was evaluated by: five drug-free passages (5DFPs), 3 months of cryopreservation (CP), and drug-free serial passages (DFSPs) for 4 months. Analysis of variance was used to compare differences in growth rates between AMR and AMS with 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

ED50 and ED90 of AMS were 0.61 and 3.43 mg/kg/day respectively. I50 and I90 after 20 cycles of artemether selection pressure were 19.67 and 21.45, respectively; 5DFP values were 39.16 and 15.27, respectively; 3-month CP values were 29.36 and 10.79, respectively; and DFSP values were 31.34 and 12.29, respectively. The mean parasitaemia value of AMR (24.70% ± 3.60) relative to AMS (37.66% ± 3.68) at Day 7 post infection after DFSPs revealed a fitness cost of 34.41%.

CONCLUSION

A moderately stable AMRP. berghei line was generated. Known and unknown mutations may be involved in modulating artemether resistance, and therefore molecular investigations are recommended.

Variation among strains of Borrelia burgdorferi in host tissue abundance and lifetime transmission determine the population strain structure in nature

Pathogen life history theory assumes a positive relationship between pathogen load in host tissues and pathogen transmission. Empirical evidence for this relationship is surprisingly rare due to the difficulty of measuring transmission for many pathogens. The comparative method, where a common host is experimentally infected with a set of pathogen strains, is a powerful approach for investigating the relationships between pathogen load and transmission. The validity of such experimental estimates of strain-specific transmission is greatly enhanced if they can predict the pathogen population strain structure in nature. Borrelia burgdorferi is a multi-strain, tick-borne spirochete that causes Lyme disease in North America. This study used 11 field-collected strains of B. burgdorferi, a rodent host (Mus musculus, C3H/HeJ) and its tick vector (Ixodes scapularis) to determine the relationship between pathogen load in host tissues and lifetime host-to-tick transmission (HTT). Mice were experimentally infected via tick bite with 1 of 11 strains. Lifetime HTT was measured by infesting mice with I. scapularis larval ticks on 3 separate occasions. The prevalence and abundance of the strains in the mouse tissues and the ticks were determined by qPCR. We used published databases to obtain estimates of the frequencies of these strains in wild I. scapularis tick populations. Spirochete loads in ticks and lifetime HTT varied significantly among the 11 strains of B. burgdorferi. Strains with higher spirochete loads in the host tissues were more likely to infect feeding larval ticks, which molted into nymphal ticks that had a higher probability of B. burgdorferi infection (i.e., higher HTT). Our laboratory-based estimates of lifetime HTT were predictive of the frequencies of these strains in wild I. scapularis populations. For B. burgdorferi, the strains that establish high abundance in host tissues and that have high lifetime transmission are the strains that are most common in nature.

Extraordinary parasite multiplication rates in human malaria infections

For pathogenic organisms, faster rates of multiplication promote transmission success, the potential to harm hosts, and the evolution of drug resistance. Parasite multiplication rates (PMRs) are often quantified in malaria infections, given the relative ease of sampling. Using modern and historical human infection data, we show that established methods return extraordinarily - and implausibly - large PMRs. We illustrate how inflated PMRs arise from two facets of malaria biology that are far from unique: (i) some developmental ages are easier to sample than others; (ii) the distribution of developmental ages changes over the course of infection. The difficulty of accurately quantifying PMRs demonstrates a need for robust methods and a subsequent re-evaluation of what is known even in the well-studied system of malaria.

Cultivation of Asexual Intraerythrocytic Stages of Plasmodium falciparum

Successfully developed in 1976, the continuous in vitro culture of Plasmodium falciparum has many applications in the field of malaria research. It has become an important experimental model that directly uses a human pathogen responsible for a high prevalence of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world and is a major source of biological material for immunological, biochemical, molecular, and pharmacological studies. Until present, the basic techniques described by Trager and Jensen and Haynes et al. remain unchanged in many malaria research laboratories. Nonetheless, different factors, including culture media, buffers, serum substitutes and supplements, sources of erythrocytes, and conditions of incubation (especially oxygen concentration), have been modified by different investigators to adapt the original technique in their laboratories or enhance the in vitro growth of the parasites. The possible effects and benefits of these modifications for the continuous cultivation of asexual intraerythrocytic stages of P. falciparum, as well as future challenges in developing a serum-free cultivation system and axenic cultures, are discussed.

Diagnostic performance of NxTek™ Eliminate Malaria-Pf test for the detection of Plasmodium falciparum in school children with asymptomatic malaria

Background

One of the major roadblocks to the falciparum malaria elimination programme is the presence of a portion of the population, such as school children, with asymptomatic malaria infection. Targeting such reservoirs of infections is critical to interrupting transmission and enhancing elimination efforts. The NxTek™ Eliminate Malaria Pf test is a highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (hsRDT) for the detection of HRP-2. However, knowledge gaps exist in Ethiopia on the diagnostic performance of hsRDT for the detection of Plasmodium falciparum in school children with asymptomatic malaria.

Methods

A school-based cross-sectional study was conducted from September 2021 to January 2022 on 994 healthy school children (aged 6–15 years). Finger-pricked whole blood samples were collected for microscopy, hsRDT, conventional RDT (cRDT or SD Bioline Malaria Ag Pf/P.v), and QuantStudio™ 3 Real—Time PCR system (qPCR). The hsRDT was compared to cRDT and microscopy. qPCR and microscopy were used as reference methods.

Results

The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum was 1.51%, 2.2%. 2.2% and 4.52%, by microscopy, hsRDT, cRDT and qPCR, respectively. Using qPCR as reference, the sensitivity of hsRDT was higher (48.89%) than the microscopy (33.3%), and showed 100% specificity and a positive predictive value (PPV). Microscopy showed similar specificity and PPV as hsRDT. Using microscopy as a reference, the diagnostic perforrmances of both hsRDT and cRDT were similar. Both RDTs demonstrated identical diagnostic performances in both comparison methods.

Conclusions

hsRDT has the same diagnostic performance as cRDT but improved diagnostic characteristics than microscopy for detection of P. falciparum in school children with asymptomatic malaria. It can be a useful tool for the national malaria elimination plan of Ethiopia.

Parasite detection and quantification in avian blood is dependent on storage medium and duration

Studies of parasites in wild animal populations often rely on molecular methods to both detect and quantify infections. However, method accuracy is likely to be influenced by the sampling approach taken prior to nucleic acid extraction. Avian Haemosporidia are studied primarily through the screening of host blood, and a range of storage mediums are available for the short- to long-term preservation of samples. Previous research has suggested that storage medium choice may impact the accuracy of PCR-based parasite detection, however, this relationship has never been explicitly tested and may be exacerbated by the duration of sample storage. These considerations could also be especially critical for sensitive molecular methods used to quantify infection (qPCR). To test the effect of storage medium and duration on Plasmodium detection and quantification, we split blood samples collected from wild birds across three medium types (filter paper, Queen's lysis buffer, and 96% ethanol) and carried out DNA extractions at five time points (1, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months post-sampling). First, we found variation in DNA yield obtained from blood samples dependent on their storage medium which had subsequent negative impacts on both detection and estimates of Plasmodium copy number. Second, we found that detection accuracy (incidence of true positives) was highest for filter-paper-stored samples (97%), while accuracy for ethanol and Queen's lysis buffer-stored samples was influenced by either storage duration or extraction yield, respectively. Lastly, longer storage durations were associated with decreased copy number estimates across all storage mediums; equating to a 58% reduction between the first- and third-year post-sampling for lysis-stored samples. These results raise questions regarding the utility of standardizing samples by dilution, while also illustrating the critical importance of considering storage approaches in studies of Haemosporidia comparing samples subjected to different storage regimes and/or stored for varying lengths of time.

Efficacy of the Antimalarial MMV390048 against Babesia Infection Reveals Phosphatidylinositol 4-Kinase as a Druggable Target for Babesiosis

The present study aimed to evaluate the anti-Babesia effect of MMV390048, a drug that inhibits Plasmodium by targeting the phosphatidylinositol 4-kinase (PI4K). The half inhibitory concentration (IC₅₀) of MMV390048 against the in vitro growth of Babesia gibsoni was 6.9 ± 0.9 μM. In immunocompetent mice, oral treatment with MMV390048 at a concentration of 20 mg/kg effectively inhibited the growth of B. microti (Peabody mjr strain). The peak parasitemia in the control group was 30.5%, whereas the peak parasitemia in the MMV390048-treated group was 3.4%. Meanwhile, MMV390048 also showed inhibition on the growth of B. rodhaini (Australia strain), a highly pathogenic rodent Babesia species. All MMV390048-treated mice survived, whereas the mice in control group died within 10 days postinfection (DPI). The first 7-day administration of MMV390048 in B. microti-infected, severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice delayed the rise of parasitemia by 26 days. Subsequently, a second 7-day administration was given upon recurrence. At 52 DPI, a parasite relapse (in 1 out of 5 mice) and a mutation in the B. microti PI4K L746S, a MMV390048 resistance-related gene, were detected. Although the radical cure of B. microti infection in immunocompromised host SCID mice was not achieved, results from this study showed that MMV390048 has excellent inhibitory effects on Babesia parasites, revealing a new treatment strategy for babesiosis: targeting the B. microti PI4K.

Host-pathogen coevolution drives innate immune response to Aphanomyces astaci infection in freshwater crayfish: transcriptomic evidence

BACKGROUND

For over a century, scientists have studied host-pathogen interactions between the crayfish plague disease agent Aphanomyces astaci and freshwater crayfish. It has been hypothesised that North American crayfish hosts are disease-resistant due to the long-lasting coevolution with the pathogen. Similarly, the increasing number of latent infections reported in the historically sensitive European crayfish hosts seems to indicate that similar coevolutionary processes are occurring between European crayfish and A. astaci. Our current understanding of these host-pathogen interactions is largely focused on the innate immunity processes in the crayfish haemolymph and cuticle, but the molecular basis of the observed disease-resistance and susceptibility remain unclear. To understand how coevolution is shaping the host's molecular response to the pathogen, susceptible native European noble crayfish and invasive disease-resistant marbled crayfish were challenged with two A. astaci strains of different origin: a haplogroup A strain (introduced to Europe at least 50 years ago, low virulence) and a haplogroup B strain (signal crayfish in lake Tahoe, USA, high virulence). Here, we compare the gene expression profiles of the hepatopancreas, an integrated organ of crayfish immunity and metabolism.

RESULTS

We characterised several novel innate immune-related gene groups in both crayfish species. Across all challenge groups, we detected 412 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in the noble crayfish, and 257 DEGs in the marbled crayfish. In the noble crayfish, a clear immune response was detected to the haplogroup B strain, but not to the haplogroup A strain. In contrast, in the marbled crayfish we detected an immune response to the haplogroup A strain, but not to the haplogroup B strain.

CONCLUSIONS

We highlight the hepatopancreas as an important hub for the synthesis of immune molecules in the response to A. astaci. A clear distinction between the innate immune response in the marbled crayfish and the noble crayfish is the capability of the marbled crayfish to mobilise a higher variety of innate immune response effectors. With this study we outline that the type and strength of the host immune response to the pathogen is strongly influenced by the coevolutionary history of the crayfish with specific A. astaci strains.

Clinical Progression of Theileria haneyi in Splenectomized Horses Reveals Decreased Virulence Compared to Theileria equi

The global importance of the hemoparasite Theileria haneyi to equine health was recently shown by its resistance to imidocarb dipropionate (ID) and its interference with T. equi clearance by ID in some co-infected horses. Genetic characterization of T. haneyi revealed marked genomic reduction compared to T. equi, and initial experiments demonstrated reduced clinical severity in spleen-intact horses. Furthermore, in early experiments, splenectomized horses survived T. haneyi infection and progressed to an asymptomatic carrier state, in stark contrast to the high fatality rate of T. equi in splenectomized horses. Thus, we hypothesized that T. haneyi is less virulent than T. equi. To objectively assess virulence, clinical data from nine splenectomized, T. haneyi-infected horses were evaluated and compared to published data on T. equi-infected, splenectomized horses. Seven of eight splenectomized, T. haneyi-infected horses survived. Further, in six horses co-infected with T. equi and T. haneyi, only horses cleared of T. equi by ID survived splenectomy and became asymptomatic carriers. The reduced virulence of T. haneyi in splenectomized horses instructs why T. haneyi was, until recently, undetected. This naturally occurring comparative reduction in virulence in a natural host provides a foundation for defining virulence mechanisms of theileriosis and Apicomplexa in general.

Surveillance and control of SARS-CoV-2 in mustelids: An evolutionary perspective

The relevance of mustelids in SARS-CoV-2 transmission has become increasingly evident. Alongside experimental demonstration of airborne transmission among ferrets, the major animal model for human respiratory diseases, transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within- and/or between-commercial mink farms has occurred and continues to occur. The number of mink reared for the luxury fur trade is approximately 60.5 million, across 36 mustelid-farming countries. By July 2021, SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks have been reported in 12 of these countries, at 412 European and 20 North American mink farms. Reverse zoonotic transmission events (from humans to mink) have introduced the virus to farms with subsequent extensive mink-to-mink transmission as well as further zoonotic (mink-to-human) transmission events generating cases among both farm workers and the broader community. Overcrowded housing conditions inherent within intensive mink farms, often combined with poor sanitation and welfare, both guarantee spread of SARS-CoV-2 and facilitate opportunities for viral variants, thereby effectively representing biotic hubs for viral transmission and evolution of virulence. Adequate preventative, surveillance and control measures within the mink industry are imperative both for the control of the current global pandemic and to mitigate against future outbreaks.

Ecological and evolutionary perspectives on tick-borne pathogen co-infections

Tick-borne pathogen co-infections are common in nature. Co-infecting pathogens interact with each other and the tick microbiome, which influences individual pathogen fitness, and ultimately shapes virulence, infectivity, and transmission. In this review, we discuss how tick-borne pathogens are an ideal framework to study the evolutionary dynamics of co-infections. We highlight the importance of inter-species and intra-species interactions in vector-borne pathogen ecology and evolution. We also propose experimental evolution in tick cell lines as a method to directly test the impact of co-infections on pathogen evolution. Experimental evolution can simulate in real-time the long periods of time involved in within-vector pathogen interactions in nature, a major practical obstacle to cracking the influence of co-infections on pathogen evolution and ecology.

The three Ts of virulence evolution during zoonotic emergence

There is increasing interest in the role that evolution may play in current and future pandemics, but there is often also considerable confusion about the actual evolutionary predictions. This may be, in part, due to a historical separation of evolutionary and medical fields, but there is a large, somewhat nuanced body of evidence-supported theory on the evolution of infectious disease. In this review, we synthesize this evolutionary theory in order to provide a framework for clearer understanding of the key principles. Specifically, we discuss the selection acting on zoonotic pathogens' transmission rates and virulence at spillover and during emergence. We explain how the direction and strength of selection during epidemics of emerging zoonotic disease can be understood by a three Ts framework: trade-offs, transmission, and time scales. Virulence and transmission rate may trade-off, but transmission rate is likely to be favoured by selection early in emergence, particularly if maladapted zoonotic pathogens have 'no-cost' transmission rate improving mutations available to them. Additionally, the optimal virulence and transmission rates can shift with the time scale of the epidemic. Predicting pathogen evolution, therefore, depends on understanding both the trade-offs of transmission-improving mutations and the time scales of selection.

Deconstructing the parasite multiplication rate of Plasmodium falciparum

Epidemiological indicators describing population-level malaria transmission dynamics are widely used to guide policy recommendations. However, the determinants of malaria outcomes within individuals are still poorly understood. This conceptual gap partly reflects the fact that there are few indicators that robustly predict the trajectory of individual infections or clinical outcomes. The parasite multiplication rate (PMR) is a widely used indicator for the Plasmodium intraerythrocytic development cycle (IDC), for example, but its relationship to clinical outcomes is complex. Here, we review its calculation and use in P. falciparum malaria research, as well as the parasite and host factors that impact it. We also provide examples of metrics that can help to link within-host dynamics to malaria clinical outcomes when used alongside the PMR.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: Pathogens are often assumed to evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is crucial to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and the overall disease burden. Considerable effort has been invested towards developing a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium. Results: We reveal kinetic constraints whereby variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are often constrained by the host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. These results agree with previous work demonstrating an increase in virulence for smallpox and further predict that SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. Herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with similar life history traits might be unachievable without vaccination. However, partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect on the epidemic dynamics not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by changing the evolutionary trajectory of moderate CFR viruses towards reduced CFR.

Evolution of human respiratory virus epidemics

Background: It is often assumed that pathogens evolve towards reduced virulence, but counterexamples abound. Faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) and overall disease burden into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although many approaches accurately recapitulate complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between CFR and infection rate. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens. Methods: A compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity is constructed and evaluated at both short timescales and at equilibrium (when it exists). Results: We reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased CFR and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as smallpox, are likely often constrained by host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR. Conclusions: Evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in CFR should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced CFR.

Virus shedding kinetics and unconventional virulence tradeoffs

Tradeoff theory, which postulates that virulence provides both transmission costs and benefits for pathogens, has become widely adopted by the scientific community. Although theoretical literature exploring virulence-tradeoffs is vast, empirical studies validating various assumptions still remain sparse. In particular, truncation of transmission duration as a cost of virulence has been difficult to quantify with robust controlled in vivo studies. We sought to fill this knowledge gap by investigating how transmission rate and duration were associated with virulence for infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Using host mortality to quantify virulence and viral shedding to quantify transmission, we found that IHNV did not conform to classical tradeoff theory. More virulent genotypes of the virus were found to have longer transmission durations due to lower recovery rates of infected hosts, but the relationship was not saturating as assumed by tradeoff theory. Furthermore, the impact of host mortality on limiting transmission duration was minimal and greatly outweighed by recovery. Transmission rate differences between high and low virulence genotypes were also small and inconsistent. Ultimately, more virulent genotypes were found to have the overall fitness advantage, and there was no apparent constraint on the evolution of increased virulence for IHNV. However, using a mathematical model parameterized with experimental data, it was found that host culling resurrected the virulence tradeoff and provided low virulence genotypes with the advantage. Human-induced or natural culling, as well as host population fragmentation, may be some of the mechanisms by which virulence diversity is maintained in nature. This work highlights the importance of considering non-classical virulence tradeoffs.

Genomic analysis reveals independent evolution of Plasmodium falciparum populations in Ethiopia

Background

Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in Ethiopia have been experiencing local selective pressures from drugs and immunity, leading to evolutionary adaptation. However, there was a paucity of data on genomic characterization and evolutionary adaptations of P. falciparum isolates from the central area of Ethiopia.

Methods

Whole-genome analysis of 25 P. falciparum isolates from central Ethiopia, specifically from West Arsi, were studied to determine their genetic diversity, population structures, and signatures of selection in known drug resistance alleles against global isolates from Cambodia, Thailand, DR Congo, and Malawi.

Results

A total of 18,517 high-quality single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified in Ethiopian P. falciparum isolates. About 84% of the Ethiopian P. falciparum isolates had a F_WS value > 0.95 showing a dominant single genotype infection in most isolates at the time of collection with little potential for out-crossing as expected in areas with low transmission intensity. Within-host diversity of Ethiopian infections was significantly different from East African (p < 0.001), but not Southeast Asian infections (P > 0.05). A significant population structure has been observed by PCA and population differentiation between Ethiopian parasites and East African (Fst ~ 10%) and Southeast Asian populations (Fst ~ 18%), suggesting limited gene flow and the independent evolution of the Ethiopian parasite population. Moreover, a total of 125 genes under balancing selection was found that include ama1, trap, eba175, and lsa3, previously identified as targets of human host immunity. Recent directional selection analysis using integrated standardized haplotype score (IHS) did not detect any selection signatures in the Pfcrt, Pfdhfr, Pfdhps, Pfmdr1, and PfK13 genes. However, known drug resistance-conferring mutations analysis showed that at least one SNP marker was fixed in these genes, but not in Pfdhps and PfK13.

Conclusion

Plasmodium falciparum populations in the central region of Ethiopia was structurally diverged from both Southeast Asian and other East African populations. Malaria infections in Ethiopia had low within-host diversity, and parasites carry fixed chloroquine resistance markers despite the withdrawal of this drug for the treatment of P. falciparum.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03660-y.

A horizontally acquired expansin gene increases virulence of the emerging plant pathogen Erwinia tracheiphila

Erwinia tracheiphila is a bacterial plant pathogen that causes a fatal wilt infection in some cucurbit crop plants. Wilt symptoms are thought to be caused by systemic bacterial colonization through xylem that impedes sap flow. However, the genetic determinants of within-plant movement are unknown for this pathogen species. Here, we find that E. tracheiphila has horizontally acquired an operon with a microbial expansin (exlx) gene adjacent to a glycoside hydrolase family 5 (gh5) gene. Plant inoculation experiments with deletion mutants in the individual genes (Δexlx and Δgh5) and the full operon (Δexlx-gh5) resulted in decreased severity of wilt symptoms, decreased mortality rate, and impaired systemic colonization compared to the Wt strain. Co-inoculation experiments with Wt and Δexlx-gh5 rescued the movement defect of the mutant strain, suggesting that expansin and GH5 function extracellularly. Together, these results show that expansin-GH5 contributes to systemic movement through xylem, leading to rapid wilt symptom development and higher rates of plant death. The presence of expansin genes in diverse species of bacterial and fungal wilt-inducing pathogens suggests that microbial expansin proteins may be an under-appreciated virulence factor for many pathogen species.

Proteome size reduction in Apicomplexans is linked with loss of DNA repair and host redundant pathways

Apicomplexans are alveolate parasites which include Plasmodium falciparum, the main cause of malaria, one of the world's biggest killers from infectious disease. Apicomplexans are characterized by a reduction in proteome size, which appears to result from metabolic and functional simplification, commensurate with their parasitic lifestyle. However, other factors may also help to explain gene loss such as population bottlenecks experienced during transmission, and the effect of reducing the overall genomic information content. The latter constitutes an 'informational constraint', which is proposed to exert a selective pressure to evolve and maintain genes involved in informational fidelity and error correction, proportional to the quantity of information in the genome (which approximates to proteome size). The dynamics of gene loss was examined in 41 Apicomplexan genomes using orthogroup analysis. We show that loss of genes involved in amino acid metabolism and steroid biosynthesis can be explained by metabolic redundancy with the host. We also show that there is a marked tendency to lose DNA repair genes as proteome size is reduced. This may be explained by a reduction in size of the informational constraint and can help to explain elevated mutation rates in pathogens with reduced genome size. Multiple Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (MSMC) analysis indicates a recent bottleneck, consistent with predictions generated using allele-based population genetics approaches, implying that relaxed selection pressure due to reduced population size might have contributed to gene loss. However, the non-randomness of pathways that are lost challenges this scenario. Lastly, we identify unique orthogroups in malaria-causing Plasmodium species that infect humans, with a high proportion of membrane associated proteins. Thus, orthogroup analysis appears useful for identifying novel candidate pathogenic factors in parasites, when there is a wide sample of genomes available.

Malaria parasites hide in plain sight in the dry season

Plasmodium falciparum parasites survive the dry season by accepting increased clearance rates through the host spleen, which leads to a persistent lower-level infection.

Evolution of Human Respiratory Virus Epidemics

BACKGROUND

While pathogens often evolve towards reduced virulence, many counterexamples are evident. When faced with a new pathogen, such as SARS-CoV-2, it is highly desirable to be able to forecast the case fatality rate (CFR) into the future. Considerable effort has been invested towards the development of a mathematical framework for predicting virulence evolution. Although these approaches accurately recapitulate some complex outcomes, most rely on an assumed trade-off between mortality and infectivity. It is often impractical to empirically validate this constraint for human pathogens.

RESULTS

Using a compartment model with parameters tuning the degree to which symptomatic individuals are isolated and the duration of immunity, we reveal kinetic constraints where the variation of multiple parameters in concert leads to decreased virulence and increased pathogen fitness, whereas independent variation of the parameters decreases pathogen fitness. Smallpox, SARS-CoV-2, and Influenza are analyzed as diverse representatives of human respiratory viruses. We show that highly virulent viruses, such as Smallpox, are likely often constrained by host behavior, whereas moderately virulent viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2, appear to be typically constrained by the relationship between the duration of immunity and CFR.

CONCLUSIONS

The evolution of human respiratory epidemics appears to be often kinetically constrained and a reduction in virulence should not be assumed. Our findings imply that, without continued public health intervention, SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue presenting a substantial disease burden. The existence of a parameter regime admitting endemic equilibrium suggests that herd immunity is unachievable. However, we demonstrate that even partial isolation of symptomatic individuals can have a major effect not only by reducing the number of fatalities in the short term but also by potentially changing the evolutionary trajectory of the virus towards reduced virulence.

Intrinsic multiplication rate variation and plasticity of human blood stage malaria parasites

Pathogen multiplication rate is theoretically an important determinant of virulence, although often poorly understood and difficult to measure accurately. We show intrinsic asexual blood stage multiplication rate variation of the major human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum to be associated with blood-stage infection intensity in patients. A panel of clinical isolates from a highly endemic West African population was analysed repeatedly during five months of continuous laboratory culture, showing a range of exponential multiplication rates at all timepoints tested, mean rates increasing over time. All isolates had different genome sequences, many containing within-isolate diversity that decreased over time in culture, but increases in multiplication rates were not primarily attributable to genomic selection. New mutants, including premature stop codons emerging in a few isolates, did not attain sufficiently high frequencies to substantially affect overall multiplication rates. Significantly, multiplication rate variation among the isolates at each of the assayed culture timepoints robustly correlated with parasite levels seen in patients at clinical presentation, indicating innate parasite control of multiplication rate that contributes to virulence.

Lindsay Stewart et al. analyze clinical isolates of the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum from a highly endemic West African population and show that intrinsic multiplication rate variation is associated with blood-stage infection intensity. Their results indicate that parasite control of multiplication contributes to virulence.

Why Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infections Are Common in Low-Transmission Settings

Plasmodium falciparum infections in low-transmission settings are often asymptomatic with low parasite densities despite low herd immunity. Based on studies in Zanzibar, this may be due to parasitic (nonvirulence) rather than host (immunity) factors. In high-transmission settings, high replication rate and virulence represents a competitive advantage, whereas in low-transmission settings nonvirulent parasites escape both competition and treatment. Such parasites also survive longer in low-transmission settings due to lower host immunity response and less frequent indirect drug exposure. This has major implications for optimal malaria control and elimination strategies.

Virulence-mediated infectiousness and activity trade-offs and their impact on transmission potential of influenza patients

Communicable diseases are often virulent, i.e. they cause morbidity symptoms in those infected. While some symptoms may be transmission-enhancing, other symptoms are likely to reduce transmission potential. For human diseases, the reduction in transmission opportunities is commonly caused by reduced activity. There is limited data regarding the potential impact of virulence on transmission potential. We performed an exploratory data analysis of 324 influenza patients at a university health centre during the 2016/2017 influenza season. We classified symptoms as infectiousness-related or morbidity-related and calculated two scores. The scores were used to explore the relationship between infectiousness, morbidity (virulence), and activity level. We found a decrease in the activity level with increasing morbidity scores. There was no consistent pattern between an activity level and an infectiousness score. We also found a positive correlation between morbidity and infectiousness scores. Overall, we find that increasing virulence leads to increased infectiousness and reduced activity, suggesting a trade-off that can impact overall transmission potential. Our findings indicate that a reduction of systemic symptoms may increase host activity without reducing infectiousness. Therefore, interventions should target both systemic- and infectiousness-related symptoms to reduce overall transmission potential. Our findings can also inform simulation models that investigate the impact of different interventions on transmission.

Assessing virulence of Varroa destructor mites from different honey bee management regimes

The mite Varroa destructor is an important honey bee parasite that causes substantial losses of honey bee colonies worldwide. Evolutionary theory suggests that the high densities at which honey bees are managed in large-scale beekeeping settings will likely select for mites with greater growth and virulence, thereby potentially explaining the major damage done by these mites. We tested this hypothesis by collecting mites from feral bee colonies, "lightly" managed colonies (those from small-scale sedentary operations), and "heavily" managed colonies (those from large-scale operations that move thousands of colonies across the US on a yearly basis). We established 8 apiaries, each consisting of 11 colonies from a standardized lightly managed bee background that were cleared of mites, and artificially infested each apiary with controlled numbers of mites from feral, lightly managed, or heavily managed bees or left uninoculated as negative control. We monitored the colonies for more than 2 years for mite levels, colony strength (adult bee population, brood coverage, and honey storage), and survival. As predicted by evolutionary theory, we found that colonies inoculated with mites from managed backgrounds had increased V. destructor mite levels relative to those with mites from feral colonies or negative controls. However, we did not see a difference between heavily and lightly managed colonies, and these higher mite burdens did not translate into greater virulence, as measured by reductions in colony strength and survival. Our results suggest that human management of honey bee colonies may favor the increased population growth rate of V. destructor, but that a range of potential confounders (including viral infections and genotype-by-genotype interactions) likely contribute to the relationship between mite reproduction and virulence.

Support for the Transmission-Clearance Trade-Off Hypothesis from a Study of Zika Virus Delivered by Mosquito Bite to Mice

Evolutionary theory indicates that virus virulence is shaped by a trade-off between instantaneous rate of transmission and duration of infection. For most viruses, infection is curtailed by immune clearance, but there are few empirical tests of the transmission–clearance trade-off hypothesis. We exposed A129 mice to bites from groups of 1, 2–4, or 6–9 Aedes albopictus mosquitoes infected with Zika virus (ZIKV). We predicted that a higher number of infectious mosquito bites would deliver a higher total dose of the virus, and that increasing dose would result in earlier onset, higher magnitude, and shorter duration of viremia, as well as a more robust neutralizing antibody response. We found that increases in the number of mosquito bites delivered resulted in significantly different virus replication dynamics with higher, earlier peak titers. All mice experienced a transient weight loss following infection, but the nadir in weight loss was delayed in the mice that received the highest number of bites. Viremia persisted past the period of measurement in this study, so we did not capture its duration. However, the association at the level of the individual mouse between the estimated virus dose delivered and neutralizing antibody titer was remarkably strong, supporting the transmission–clearance trade-off hypothesis.

Partitioning the influence of ecology across scales on parasite evolution

Vector-borne parasites must succeed at three scales to persist: they must proliferate within a host, establish in vectors, and transmit back to hosts. Ecology outside the host undergoes dramatic seasonal and human-induced changes, but predicting parasite evolutionary responses requires integrating their success across scales. We develop a novel, data-driven model to titrate the evolutionary impact of ecology at multiple scales on human malaria parasites. We investigate how parasites invest in transmission versus proliferation, a life-history trait that influences disease severity and spread. We find that transmission investment controls the pattern of host infectiousness over the course of infection: a trade-off emerges between early and late infectiousness, and the optimal resolution of that trade-off depends on ecology outside the host. An expanding epidemic favors rapid proliferation, and can overwhelm the evolutionary influence of host recovery rates and mosquito population dynamics. If transmission investment and recovery rate are positively correlated, then ecology outside the host imposes potent selection for aggressive parasite proliferation at the expense of transmission. Any association between transmission investment and recovery represents a key unknown, one that is likely to influence whether the evolutionary consequences of interventions are beneficial or costly for human health.

Multiple transmission routes sustain high prevalence of a virulent parasite in a butterfly host

Understanding factors that allow highly virulent parasites to reach high infection prevalence in host populations is important for managing infection risks to human and wildlife health. Multiple transmission routes have been proposed as one mechanism by which virulent pathogens can achieve high prevalence, underscoring the need to investigate this hypothesis through an integrated modelling-empirical framework. Here, we examine a harmful specialist protozoan infecting monarch butterflies that commonly reaches high prevalence (50–100%) in resident populations. We integrate field and modelling work to show that a combination of three empirically-supported transmission routes (vertical, adult transfer and environmental transmission) can produce and sustain high infection prevalence in this system. Although horizontal transmission is necessary for parasite invasion, most new infections post-establishment arise from vertical transmission. Our study predicts that multiple transmission routes, coupled with high parasite virulence, can reduce resident host abundance by up to 50%, suggesting that the protozoan could contribute to declines of North American monarchs.

Contrasting evolution of virulence and replication rate in an emerging bacterial pathogen

With increasing antibiotic resistance, there is a pressing need to understand how host resistance naturally influences bacterial virulence and replication rates. We test this in an infection experiment using 55 isolates of a bacterium, which were collected over the course of the epidemic following its natural emergence in a North American songbird. We demonstrate virulence has increased linearly from outbreak to the present day, encompassing >150,000 bacterial generations. Despite this, bacterial replication rate only increased during the initial spread of host resistance but not thereafter. Thus, contrary to common assumptions, virulence and replication rates can evolve independently, particularly after the initial spread of host resistance.

Host resistance through immune clearance is predicted to favor pathogens that are able to transmit faster and are hence more virulent. Increasing pathogen virulence is, in turn, typically assumed to be mediated by increasing replication rates. However, experiments designed to test how pathogen virulence and replication rates evolve in response to increasing host resistance, as well as the relationship between the two, are rare and lacking for naturally evolving host–pathogen interactions. We inoculated 55 isolates of Mycoplasma gallisepticum, collected over 20 y from outbreak, into house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus) from disease-unexposed populations, which have not evolved protective immunity to M. gallisepticum. We show using 3 different metrics of virulence (body mass loss, symptom severity, and putative mortality rate) that virulence has increased linearly over >150,000 bacterial generations since outbreak (1994 to 2015). By contrast, while replication rates increased from outbreak to the initial spread of resistance (1994 to 2004), no further increases have occurred subsequently (2007 to 2015). Finally, as a consequence, we found that any potential mediating effect of replication rate on virulence evolution was restricted to the period when host resistance was initially increasing in the population. Taken together, our results show that pathogen virulence and replication rates can evolve independently, particularly after the initial spread of host resistance. We hypothesize that the evolution of pathogen virulence can be driven primarily by processes such as immune manipulation after resistance spreads in host populations.

Host circadian rhythms are disrupted during malaria infection in parasite genotype-specific manners

Infection can dramatically alter behavioural and physiological traits as hosts become sick and subsequently return to health. Such “sickness behaviours” include disrupted circadian rhythms in both locomotor activity and body temperature. Host sickness behaviours vary in pathogen species-specific manners but the influence of pathogen intraspecific variation is rarely studied. We examine how infection with the murine malaria parasite, Plasmodium chabaudi, shapes sickness in terms of parasite genotype-specific effects on host circadian rhythms. We reveal that circadian rhythms in host locomotor activity patterns and body temperature become differentially disrupted and in parasite genotype-specific manners. Locomotor activity and body temperature in combination provide more sensitive measures of health than commonly used virulence metrics for malaria (e.g. anaemia). Moreover, patterns of host disruption cannot be explained simply by variation in replication rate across parasite genotypes or the severity of anaemia each parasite genotype causes. It is well known that disruption to circadian rhythms is associated with non-infectious diseases, including cancer, type 2 diabetes, and obesity. Our results reveal that disruption of host circadian rhythms is a genetically variable virulence trait of pathogens with implications for host health and disease tolerance.

Virulence-driven trade-offs in disease transmission: A meta-analysis

The virulence-transmission trade-off hypothesis proposed more than 30 years ago is the cornerstone in the study of host-parasite co-evolution. This hypothesis rests on the premise that virulence is an unavoidable and increasing cost because the parasite uses host resources to replicate. This cost associated with replication ultimately results in a deceleration in transmission rate because increasing within-host replication increases host mortality. Empirical tests of predictions of the hypothesis have found mixed support, which cast doubt about its overall generalizability. To quantitatively address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of 29 empirical studies, after reviewing over 6000 published papers, addressing the four core relationships between (1) virulence and recovery rate, (2) within-host replication rate and virulence, (3) within-host replication and transmission rate, and (4) virulence and transmission rate. We found strong support for an increasing relationship between replication and virulence, and replication and transmission. Yet, it is still uncertain if these relationships generally decelerate due to high within-study variability. There was insufficient data to quantitatively test the other two core relationships predicted by the theory. Overall, the results suggest that the current empirical evidence provides partial support for the trade-off hypothesis, but more work remains to be done.

Early Plasmodium-induced inflammation does not accelerate aging in mice

Aging is associated with a decline of performance leading to reduced reproductive output and survival. While the antagonistic pleiotropy theory of aging has attracted considerable attention, the molecular/physiological functions underlying the early-life benefits/late-life costs paradigm remain elusive. We tested the hypothesis that while early activation of the inflammatory response confers benefits in terms of protection against infection, it also incurs costs in terms of reduced reproductive output at old age and shortened longevity. We infected mice with the malaria parasite Plasmodium yoelii and increased the inflammatory response using an anti-IL-10 receptor antibody treatment. We quantified the benefits and costs of the inflammatory response during the acute phase of the infection and at old age. In agreement with the antagonistic pleiotropy hypothesis, the inflammatory response provided an early-life benefit, since infected mice that were treated with anti-IL-10 receptor antibodies had reduced parasite density and anemia. However, at old age, mice in all treatment groups had similar levels of C-reactive protein, reproductive output, survival rate, and lifespan. Overall, our results do not support the hypothesis that the benefits of a robust response to malaria infection in early life incur longer term fitness costs.

Genomic and transcriptomic comparisons of closely related malaria parasites differing in virulence and sequestration pattern

Background: Malaria parasite species differ greatly in the harm they do to humans. While P. falciparum kills hundreds of thousands per year, P. vivax kills much less often and P. malariae is relatively benign. Strains of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi show phenotypic variation in virulence during infections of laboratory mice. This make it an excellent species to study genes which may be responsible for this trait. By understanding the mechanisms which underlie differences in virulence we can learn how parasites adapt to their hosts and how we might prevent disease. Methods: Here we present a complete reference genome sequence for a more virulent P. chabaudi strain, PcCB, and perform a detailed comparison with the genome of the less virulent PcAS strain. Results: We found the greatest variation in the subtelomeric regions, in particular amongst the sequences of the pir gene family, which has been associated with virulence and establishment of chronic infection. Despite substantial variation at the sequence level, the repertoire of these genes has been largely maintained, highlighting the requirement for functional conservation as well as diversification in host-parasite interactions. However, a subset of pir genes, previously associated with increased virulence, were more highly expressed in PcCB, suggesting a role for this gene family in virulence differences between strains. We found that core genes involved in red blood cell invasion have been under positive selection and that the more virulent strain has a greater preference for reticulocytes, which has elsewhere been associated with increased virulence. Conclusions: These results provide the basis for a mechanistic understanding of the phenotypic differences between Plasmodium chabaudi strains, which might ultimately be translated into a better understanding of malaria parasites affecting humans.

Genomic and transcriptomic comparisons of closely related malaria parasites differing in virulence and sequestration pattern

Background: Malaria parasite species differ greatly in the harm they do to humans. While P. falciparum kills hundreds of thousands per year, P. vivax kills much less often and P. malariae is relatively benign. Strains of the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi show phenotypic variation in virulence during infections of laboratory mice. This make it an excellent species to study genes which may be responsible for this trait. By understanding the mechanisms which underlie differences in virulence we can learn how parasites adapt to their hosts and how we might prevent disease.

Methods: Here we present a complete reference genome sequence for a more virulent P. chabaudi strain, PcCB, and perform a detailed comparison with the genome of the less virulent PcAS strain.

Results: We found the greatest variation in the subtelomeric regions, in particular amongst the sequences of the pir gene family, which has been associated with virulence and establishment of chronic infection. Despite substantial variation at the sequence level, the repertoire of these genes has been largely maintained, highlighting the requirement for functional conservation as well as diversification in host-parasite interactions. However, a subset of pir genes, previously associated with increased virulence, were more highly expressed in PcCB, suggesting a role for this gene family in virulence differences between strains. We found that core genes involved in red blood cell invasion have been under positive selection and that the more virulent strain has a greater preference for reticulocytes, which has elsewhere been associated with increased virulence.

Conclusions: These results provide the basis for a mechanistic understanding of the phenotypic differences between Plasmodium chabaudi strains, which might ultimately be translated into a better understanding of malaria parasites affecting humans.

An Agent-Based Metapopulation Model Simulating Virus-Based Biocontrol of Heterodera Glycines

With recently discovered soybean cyst nematode (SCN) viruses, biological control of the nematodes is a theoretical possibility. This study explores the question of what kinds of viruses would make useful biocontrol agents, taking into account evolutionary and population dynamics. An agent-based model, Soybean Cyst Nematode Simulation (SCNSim), was developed to simulate within-host virulence evolution in a virus-nematode-soybean ecosystem. SCNSim was used to predict nematode suppression under a range of viral mutation rates, initial virulences, and release strategies. The simulation model suggested that virus-based biocontrol worked best when the nematodes were inundated with the viruses. Under lower infection prevalence, the viral burden thinned out rapidly due to the limited mobility and high reproductive rate of the SCN. In accordance with the generally accepted trade-off theory, SCNSim predicted the optimal initial virulence for the maximum nematode suppression. Higher initial virulence resulted in shorter lifetime transmission, whereas viruses with lower initial virulence values evolved toward avirulence. SCNSim also indicated that a greater viral mutation rate reinforced the virulence pathotype, suggesting the presence of a virulence threshold necessary to achieve biocontrol against SCN.

Transmission-clearance trade-offs indicate that dengue virulence evolution depends on epidemiological context

An extensive body of theory addresses the topic of pathogen virulence evolution, yet few studies have empirically demonstrated the presence of fitness trade-offs that would select for intermediate virulence. Here we show the presence of transmission-clearance trade-offs in dengue virus using viremia measurements. By fitting a within-host model to these data, we further find that the interaction between dengue and the host immune response can account for the observed trade-offs. Finally, we consider dengue virulence evolution when selection acts on the virus’s production rate. By combining within-host model simulations with empirical findings on how host viral load affects human-to-mosquito transmission success, we show that the virus’s transmission potential is maximized at production rates associated with intermediate virulence and that the optimal production rate critically depends on dengue’s epidemiological context. These results indicate that long-term changes in dengue’s global distribution impact the invasion and spread of virulent dengue virus genotypes.

Theory predicts that pathogens will evolve towards intermediate virulence, yet the necessary trade-offs invoked by this theory have rarely been demonstrated empirically. Here, the authors show that dengue virus dynamics exhibit a trade-off between transmission and clearance rates.

Adaptation of Plasmodium falciparum to its transmission environment

Success in eliminating malaria will depend on whether parasite evolution outpaces control efforts. Here, we show that Plasmodium falciparum parasites (the deadliest of the species causing human malaria) found in low-transmission-intensity areas have evolved to invest more in transmission to new hosts (reproduction) and less in within-host replication (growth) than parasites found in high-transmission areas. At the cellular level, this adaptation manifests as increased production of reproductive forms (gametocytes) early in the infection at the expense of processes associated with multiplication inside red blood cells, especially membrane transport and protein trafficking. At the molecular level, this manifests as changes in the expression levels of genes encoding epigenetic and translational machinery. Specifically, expression levels of the gene encoding AP2-G-the transcription factor that initiates reproduction-increase as transmission intensity decreases. This is accompanied by downregulation and upregulation of genes encoding HDAC1 and HDA1-two histone deacetylases that epigenetically regulate the parasite's replicative and reproductive life-stage programmes, respectively. Parasites in reproductive mode show increased reliance on the prokaryotic translation machinery found inside the plastid-derived organelles. Thus, our dissection of the parasite's adaptive regulatory architecture has identified new potential molecular targets for malaria control.

Reverse Engineering Field Isolates of Myxoma Virus Demonstrates that Some Gene Disruptions or Losses of Function Do Not Explain Virulence Changes Observed in the Field

The coevolution of myxoma virus (MYXV) and wild European rabbits in Australia and Europe is a paradigm for the evolution of a pathogen in a new host species. Genomic analyses have identified the mutations that have characterized this evolutionary process, but defining causal mutations in the pathways from virulence to attenuation and back to virulence has not been possible. Using reverse genetics, we examined the roles of six selected mutations found in Australian field isolates of MYXV that fall in known or potential virulence genes. Several of these mutations occurred in genes previously identified as virulence genes in whole-gene knockout studies. Strikingly, no single or double mutation among the mutations tested had an appreciable impact on virulence. This suggests either that virulence evolution was defined by amino acid changes other than those analyzed here or that combinations of multiple mutations, possibly involving epistatic interactions or noncoding sequences, have been critical in the ongoing evolution of MYXV virulence. In sum, our results show that single-gene knockout studies of a progenitor virus can have little power to predict the impact of individual mutations seen in the field. The genetic determinants responsible for this canonical case of virulence evolution remain to be determined.IMPORTANCE The species jump of myxoma virus (MYXV) from the South American tapeti to the European rabbit populations of Australia and Europe is a canonical example of host-pathogen coevolution. Detailed molecular studies have identified multiple genes in MYXV that are critical for virulence, and genome sequencing has revealed the evolutionary history of MYXV in Australia and Europe. However, it has not been possible to categorically identify the key mutations responsible for the attenuation of or reversion to virulence during this evolutionary process. Here we use reverse genetics to examine the role of mutations in viruses isolated early and late in the Australian radiation of MYXV. Surprisingly, none of the candidate mutations that we identified as likely having roles in attenuation proved to be important for virulence. This indicates that considerable caution is warranted when interpreting the possible role of individual mutations during virulence evolution.

Bi-logistic model for disease dynamics caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Russia

In this work, we explore epidemiological dynamics by the example of tuberculosis in Russian Federation. It has been shown that the epidemiological dynamics correlates linearly with the virulence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis during the period 1987-2012. To construct an appropriate model, we have analysed (using LogLet decomposition method) epidemiological World Health Organization (WHO) data (period 1980-2014) and obtained, as result of their integration, a curve approximated by a bi-logistic function. This fact allows a subdivision of the whole population into parts, each of them satisfies the Verhulst-like models with different constant virulences introduced into each subsystem separately. Such a subdivision could be interconnected with the heterogeneous structure of mycobacterial population that has a high ability of adaptation to the host and strong mutability.

Ecological and evolutionary approaches to managing honeybee disease

Honeybee declines are a serious threat to global agricultural security and productivity. Although multiple factors contribute to these declines, parasites are a key driver. Disease problems in honeybees have intensified in recent years, despite increasing attention to addressing them. Here we argue that we must focus on the principles of disease ecology and evolution to understand disease dynamics, assess the severity of disease threats, and control these threats via honeybee management. We cover the ecological context of honeybee disease, including both host and parasite factors driving current transmission dynamics, and then discuss evolutionary dynamics including how beekeeping management practices may drive selection for more virulent parasites. We then outline how ecological and evolutionary principles can guide disease mitigation in honeybees, including several practical management suggestions for addressing short- and long-term disease dynamics and consequences.

Multiple interacting factors have contributed to the rapid decline of honeybee populations worldwide. Here, the authors review the impact of parasites and pathogens, and how ecological and evolutionary principles can guide management practices.

Multiplication rate variation in the human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum

It is important to understand intrinsic variation in asexual blood stage multiplication rates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Here, multiplication rates of long-term laboratory adapted parasite clones and new clinical isolates were measured, using a newly standardised assay of growth from low starting density in replicate parallel cultures with erythrocytes from multiple different donors, across multiple cycles. Multiplication rates of long-term established clones were between 7.6 and 10.5 fold per 48 hours, with clone Dd2 having a higher rate than others (clones 3D7, HB3 and D10). Parasite clone-specific growth was then analysed in co-culture assays with all possible heterologous pairwise combinations. This showed that co-culture of different parasites did not affect their replication rates, indicating that there were no suppressive interactions operating between parasites. Multiplication rates of eleven new clinical isolates were measured after a few weeks of culture, and showed a spectrum of replication rates between 2.3 and 6.0 fold per 48 hours, the entire range being lower than for the long-term laboratory adapted clones. Multiplication rate estimates remained stable over time for several isolates tested repeatedly up to three months after culture initiation, indicating considerable persistence of this important trait variation.

Combining 'omics and microscopy to visualize interactions between the Asian citrus psyllid vector and the Huanglongbing pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus in the insect gut

Huanglongbing, or citrus greening disease, is an economically devastating bacterial disease of citrus. It is associated with infection by the gram-negative bacterium Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus (CLas). CLas is transmitted by Diaphorina citri, the Asian citrus psyllid (ACP). For insect transmission to occur, CLas must be ingested during feeding on infected phloem sap and cross the gut barrier to gain entry into the insect vector. To investigate the effects of CLas exposure at the gut-pathogen interface, we performed RNAseq and mass spectrometry-based proteomics to analyze the transcriptome and proteome, respectively, of ACP gut tissue. CLas exposure resulted in changes in pathways involving the TCA cycle, iron metabolism, insecticide resistance and the insect's immune system. We identified 83 long non-coding RNAs that are responsive to CLas, two of which appear to be specific to the ACP. Proteomics analysis also enabled us to determine that Wolbachia, a symbiont of the ACP, undergoes proteome regulation when CLas is present. Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) confirmed that Wolbachia and CLas inhabit the same ACP gut cells, but do not co-localize within those cells. Wolbachia cells are prevalent throughout the gut epithelial cell cytoplasm, and Wolbachia titer is more variable in the guts of CLas exposed insects. CLas is detected on the luminal membrane, in puncta within the gut epithelial cell cytoplasm, along actin filaments in the gut visceral muscles, and rarely, in association with gut cell nuclei. Our study provides a snapshot of how the psyllid gut copes with CLas exposure and provides information on pathways and proteins for targeted disruption of CLas-vector interactions at the gut interface.

Simplified Reversed Chloroquines To Overcome Malaria Resistance to Quinoline-Based Drugs

Building on our earlier work of attaching a chemosensitizer (reversal agent) to a known drug pharmacophore, we have now expanded the structure-activity relationship study to include simplified versions of the chemosensitizer. The change from two aromatic rings in this head group to a single ring does not appear to detrimentally affect the antimalarial activity of the compounds. Data from in vitro heme binding and β-hematin inhibition assays suggest that the single aromatic RCQ compounds retain activities against Plasmodium falciparum similar to those of CQ, although other mechanisms of action may be relevant to their activities.

Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R0 to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes.

Eco-immunology and bioinvasion: revisiting the evolution of increased competitive ability hypotheses

Immunity is at the core of major theories related to invasion biology. Among them, the evolution of increased competitive ability (EICA) and EICA‐refined hypotheses have been used as a reference work. They postulate that the release from pathogens often experienced during invasion should favour a reallocation of resources from (costly) immune defences to beneficial life‐history traits associated with invasive potential. We review studies documenting immune changes during animal invasions. We describe the designs and approaches that have been applied and discuss some reasons that prevent drawing generalized conclusions regarding EICA hypotheses. We detail why a better assessment of invasion history and immune costs, including immunopathologies and parasite communities, could improve our understanding of the relationships between immunity and invasion success. Finally, we propose new perspectives to revisit the EICA hypotheses. We first emphasize the neutral and adaptive mechanisms involved in immune changes, as well as timing of the later. Such investigation will help decipher whether immune changes are a consequence of pre‐adaptation, or the result of postintroduction adaptations to invasion front conditions. We next bring attention to new avenues of research that remain unexplored, namely age‐dependent immunity and gut microbiota, potential key factors underlying adaptation to invasion front environment and modulating invasion success.