Pathways to extinction: beyond the error threshold

Mammarenavirus Genetic Diversity and Its Biological Implications

Members of the family Arenaviridae are classified into four genera: Antennavirus, Hartmanivirus, Mammarenavirus, and Reptarenavirus. Reptarenaviruses and hartmaniviruses infect (captive) snakes and have been shown to cause boid inclusion body disease (BIBD). Antennaviruses have genomes consisting of 3, rather than 2, segments, and were discovered in actinopterygian fish by next-generation sequencing but no biological isolate has been reported yet. The hosts of mammarenaviruses are mainly rodents and infections are generally asymptomatic. Current knowledge about the biology of reptarenaviruses, hartmaniviruses, and antennaviruses is very limited and their zoonotic potential is unknown. In contrast, some mammarenaviruses are associated with zoonotic events that pose a threat to human health. This review will focus on mammarenavirus genetic diversity and its biological implications. Some mammarenaviruses including lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) are excellent experimental model systems for the investigation of acute and persistent viral infections, whereas others including Lassa (LASV) and Junin (JUNV) viruses, the causative agents of Lassa fever (LF) and Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF), respectively, are important human pathogens. Mammarenaviruses were thought to have high degree of intra-and inter-species amino acid sequence identities, but recent evidence has revealed a high degree of mammarenavirus genetic diversity in the field. Moreover, closely related mammarenavirus can display dramatic phenotypic differences in vivo. These findings support a role of genetic variability in mammarenavirus adaptability and pathogenesis. Here, we will review the molecular biology of mammarenaviruses, phylogeny, and evolution, as well as the quasispecies dynamics of mammarenavirus populations and their biological implications.

Structural Insights Into Tautomeric Dynamics in Nucleic Acids and in Antiviral Nucleoside Analogs

DNA (2'-deoxyribonucleic acid) and RNA (ribonucleic acid) play diverse functional roles in biology and disease. Despite being comprised primarily of only four cognate nucleobases, nucleic acids can adopt complex three-dimensional structures, and RNA in particular, can catalyze biochemical reactions to regulate a wide variety of biological processes. Such chemical versatility is due in part to the phenomenon of nucleobase tautomerism, whereby the bases can adopt multiple, yet distinct isomeric forms, known as tautomers. For nucleobases, tautomers refer to structural isomers that differ from one another by the position of protons. By altering the position of protons on nucleobases, many of which play critical roles for hydrogen bonding and base pairing interactions, tautomerism has profound effects on the biochemical processes involving nucleic acids. For example, the transient formation of minor tautomers during replication could generate spontaneous mutations. These mutations could arise from the stabilization of mismatches, in the active site of polymerases, in conformations involving minor tautomers that are indistinguishable from canonical base pairs. In this review, we discuss the evidence for tautomerism in DNA, and its consequences to the fidelity of DNA replication. Also reviewed are RNA systems, such as the riboswitches and self-cleaving ribozymes, in which tautomerism plays a functional role in ligand recognition and catalysis, respectively. We also discuss tautomeric nucleoside analogs that are efficacious as antiviral drug candidates such as molnupiravir for coronaviruses and KP1212 for HIV. The antiviral efficacy of these analogs is due, in part, to their ability to exist in multiple tautomeric forms and induce mutations in the replicating viral genomes. From a technical standpoint, minor tautomers of nucleobases are challenging to identify directly because they are rare and interconvert on a fast, millisecond to nanosecond, time scale. Nevertheless, many approaches including biochemical, structural, computational and spectroscopic methods have been developed to study tautomeric dynamics in RNA and DNA systems, and in antiviral nucleoside analogs. An overview of these methods and their applications is included here.

Major Evolutionary Transitions and the Roles of Facilitation and Information in Ecosystem Transformations

A small number of extraordinary “Major Evolutionary Transitions” (METs) have attracted attention among biologists. They comprise novel forms of individuality and information, and are defined in relation to organismal complexity, irrespective of broader ecosystem-level effects. This divorce between evolutionary and ecological consequences qualifies unicellular eukaryotes, for example, as a MET although they alone failed to significantly alter ecosystems. Additionally, this definition excludes revolutionary innovations not fitting into either MET type (e.g., photosynthesis). We recombine evolution with ecology to explore how and why entire ecosystems were newly created or radically altered – as Major System Transitions (MSTs). In doing so, we highlight important morphological adaptations that spread through populations because of their immediate, direct-fitness advantages for individuals. These are Major Competitive Transitions, or MCTs. We argue that often multiple METs and MCTs must be present to produce MSTs. For example, sexually-reproducing, multicellular eukaryotes (METs) with anisogamy and exoskeletons (MCTs) significantly altered ecosystems during the Cambrian. Therefore, we introduce the concepts of Facilitating Evolutionary Transitions (FETs) and Catalysts as key events or agents that are insufficient themselves to set a MST into motion, but are essential parts of synergies that do. We further elucidate the role of information in MSTs as transitions across five levels: (I) Encoded; (II) Epigenomic; (III) Learned; (IV) Inscribed; and (V) Dark Information. The latter is ‘authored’ by abiotic entities rather than biological organisms. Level IV has arguably allowed humans to produce a MST, and V perhaps makes us a FET for a future transition that melds biotic and abiotic life into one entity. Understanding the interactive processes involved in past major transitions will illuminate both current events and the surprising possibilities that abiotically-created information may produce.

Phase transitions in virology

Viruses have established relationships with almost every other living organism on Earth and at all levels of biological organization: from other viruses up to entire ecosystems. In most cases, they peacefully coexist with their hosts, but in most relevant cases, they parasitize them and induce diseases and pandemics, such as the AIDS and the most recent avian influenza and COVID-19 pandemic events, causing a huge impact on health, society, and economy. Viruses play an essential role in shaping the eco-evolutionary dynamics of their hosts, and have been also involved in some of the major evolutionary innovations either by working as vectors of genetic information or by being themselves coopted by the host into their genomes. Viruses can be studied at different levels of biological organization, from the molecular mechanisms of genome replication, gene expression and encapsidation, to global pandemics. All these levels are different and yet connected through the presence of threshold conditions allowing for the formation of a capsid, the loss of genetic information or epidemic spreading. These thresholds, as occurs with temperature separating phases in a liquid, define sharp qualitative types of behaviour. Thesephase transitionsare very well known in physics. They have been studied by means of simple, but powerful models able to capture their essential properties, allowing us to better understand them. Can the physics of phase transitions be an inspiration for our understanding of viral dynamics at different scales? Here we review well-known mathematical models of transition phenomena in virology. We suggest that the advantages of abstract, simplified pictures used in physics are also the key to properly understanding the origins and evolution of complexity in viruses. By means of several examples, we explore this multilevel landscape and how minimal models provide deep insights into a diverse array of problems. The relevance of these transitions in connecting dynamical patterns across scales and their evolutionary and clinical implications are outlined.

Genetic diversity through social heterosis can increase virulence in RNA viral infections and cancer progression

In viral infections and cancer tumours, negative health outcomes often correlate with increasing genetic diversity. Possible evolutionary processes for such relationships include mutant lineages escaping host control or diversity, per se, creating too many immune system targets. Another possibility is social heterosis where mutations and replicative errors create clonal lineages varying in intrinsic capability for successful dispersal; improved environmental buffering; resource extraction or effective defence against immune systems. Rather than these capabilities existing in one genome, social heterosis proposes complementary synergies occur across lineages in close proximity. Diverse groups overcome host defences as interacting 'social genomes' with group genetic tool kits exceeding limited individual plasticity. To assess the possibility of social heterosis in viral infections and cancer progression, we conducted extensive literature searches for examples consistent with general and specific predictions from the social heterosis hypothesis. Numerous studies found supportive patterns in cancers across multiple tissues and in several families of RNA viruses. In viruses, social heterosis mechanisms probably result from long coevolutionary histories of competition between pathogen and host. Conversely, in cancers, social heterosis is a by-product of recent mutations. Investigating how social genomes arise and function in viral quasi-species swarms and cancer tumours may lead to new therapeutic approaches.

The association of the heterogeneity of HBV reverse transcriptase quasispecies with antiviral efficacy after treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues for 10 years

To assess the heterogeneity of HBV reverse transcriptase (RT) quasispecies during 10 years of antiviral therapy and their association with antiviral efficacy. Nineteen patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) infection receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) were enrolled. Based on the antiviral efficacy after 1 year of treatment, 5 patients were grouped into an early virologic response (EVR) group, while 8 patients were grouped into a late virologic response (LVR) group. Furthermore, 6 CHB patients that had undergone antiviral treatment for 10 years were grouped into a virologic breakthrough (VBT) group. The HBV RT from each patient were amplified, cloned, and sequenced. The complexity of the RT gene in the EVR group was significantly higher than that in the LVR (P = 0.0393) and VBT groups (P = 0.0141). Phylogenetic tree analysis showed that the average branch length of the EVR and LVR groups were significantly greater than that of VBT group (P < 0.001). The complexity (at the nucleotide level) of the RT quasispecies was negatively correlated with the corresponding HBV DNA load (P = 0.0163) at one year post-antiviral treatment. Moreover, both the LVR and VBT groups accumulated more deleterious mutations than the EVR group. After 1 year of NAs treatment, the increased HBV quasispecies complexity and evolutionary topologies, coupled with less deleterious mutations, are likely associated with a favorable efficacy during long-term antiviral treatment.

Small-Molecule Antiviral β-d-N4-Hydroxycytidine Inhibits a Proofreading-Intact Coronavirus with a High Genetic Barrier to Resistance

Coronaviruses (CoVs) have emerged from animal reservoirs to cause severe and lethal disease in humans, but there are currently no FDA-approved antivirals to treat the infections. One class of antiviral compounds, nucleoside analogues, mimics naturally occurring nucleosides to inhibit viral replication. While these compounds have been successful therapeutics for several viral infections, mutagenic nucleoside analogues, such as ribavirin and 5-fluorouracil, have been ineffective at inhibiting CoVs. This has been attributed to the proofreading activity of the viral 3'-5' exoribonuclease (ExoN). β-d-N4-Hydroxycytidine (NHC) (EIDD-1931; Emory Institute for Drug Development) has recently been reported to inhibit multiple viruses. Here, we demonstrate that NHC inhibits both murine hepatitis virus (MHV) (50% effective concentration [EC50] = 0.17 μM) and Middle East respiratory syndrome CoV (MERS-CoV) (EC50 = 0.56 μM) with minimal cytotoxicity. NHC inhibited MHV lacking ExoN proofreading activity similarly to wild-type (WT) MHV, suggesting an ability to evade or overcome ExoN activity. NHC inhibited MHV only when added early during infection, decreased viral specific infectivity, and increased the number and proportion of G:A and C:U transition mutations present after a single infection. Low-level NHC resistance was difficult to achieve and was associated with multiple transition mutations across the genome in both MHV and MERS-CoV. These results point to a virus-mutagenic mechanism of NHC inhibition in CoVs and indicate a high genetic barrier to NHC resistance. Together, the data support further development of NHC for treatment of CoVs and suggest a novel mechanism of NHC interaction with the CoV replication complex that may shed light on critical aspects of replication.IMPORTANCE The emergence of coronaviruses (CoVs) into human populations from animal reservoirs has demonstrated their epidemic capability, pandemic potential, and ability to cause severe disease. However, no antivirals have been approved to treat these infections. Here, we demonstrate the potent antiviral activity of a broad-spectrum ribonucleoside analogue, β-d-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC), against two divergent CoVs. Viral proofreading activity does not markedly impact sensitivity to NHC inhibition, suggesting a novel interaction between a nucleoside analogue inhibitor and the CoV replicase. Further, passage in the presence of NHC generates only low-level resistance, likely due to the accumulation of multiple potentially deleterious transition mutations. Together, these data support a mutagenic mechanism of inhibition by NHC and further support the development of NHC for treatment of CoV infections.

The Curious Case of the Nidovirus Exoribonuclease: Its Role in RNA Synthesis and Replication Fidelity

Among RNA viruses, the order Nidovirales stands out for including viruses with the largest RNA genomes currently known. Nidoviruses employ a complex RNA-synthesizing machinery comprising a variety of non-structural proteins (nsps). One of the postulated drivers of the expansion of nidovirus genomes is the presence of a proofreading 3′-to-5′ exoribonuclease (ExoN) belonging to the DEDDh family. ExoN may enhance the fidelity of RNA synthesis by correcting nucleotide incorporation errors made by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. Here, we review our current understanding of ExoN evolution, structure, and function. Most experimental data are derived from studies of the ExoN domain of coronaviruses (CoVs), which were triggered by the bioinformatics-based identification of ExoN in the genome of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and its relatives in 2003. Although convincing data supporting the proofreading hypothesis have been obtained, from biochemical assays and studies with CoV mutants lacking ExoN functionality, the features of ExoN from most other nidovirus families remain to be characterized. Remarkably, viable ExoN knockout mutants were obtained only for two CoVs, mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) and SARS-CoV, whose RNA synthesis and replication kinetics were mildly affected by the lack of ExoN function. In several other CoV species, ExoN inactivation was not tolerated, and knockout mutants could not be rescued when launched using a reverse genetics system. This suggests that ExoN is also critical for primary viral RNA synthesis, a property that poorly matches the profile of an enzyme that would merely boost long-term replication fidelity. In CoVs, ExoN resides in a bifunctional replicase subunit (nsp14) whose C-terminal part has (N7-guanine)-methyltransferase activity. The crystal structure of SARS-CoV nsp14 has shed light on the interplay between these two domains, and on nsp14’s interactions with nsp10, a co-factor that strongly enhances ExoN activity in vitro assays. Further elucidation of the structure-function relationships of ExoN and its interactions with other (viral and/or host) members of the CoV replication machinery will be key to understanding the enzyme’s role in viral RNA synthesis and pathogenesis, and may contribute to the design of new approaches to combat emerging nidoviruses.

Antiviral candidates against the hepatitis E virus (HEV) and their combinations inhibit HEV growth in in vitro

Hepatitis E is a global public health problem. Ribavirin (RBV) and pegylated interferon alpha are currently administered to cure hepatitis E. Recently, in combination with RBV, sofosbuvir (SOF), an anti-hepatitis C virus nucleotide analog, is also given to patients with chronic hepatitis E. However, this combinatorial therapy sometimes fails to achieve a sustained virological response. In this study, we used 27 antiviral compounds, including 15 nucleos(t)ide analogs, for in vitro screening against a genotype 3 HEV strain containing a Gaussia luciferase reporter. RBV, SOF, 2'-C-methyladenosine, 2'-C-methylcytidine (2CMC), 2'-C-methylguanosine (2CMG), and two 4'-azido nucleoside analogs (R-1479 and RO-9187) suppressed replication of the reporter genome, while only RBV, SOF, 2CMC and 2CMG inhibited the growth of genotype 3 HEV in cultured cells. Although 2CMG and RBV (2CMG/RBV) exhibited a synergistic effect while SOF/RBV and 2CMC/RBV showed antagonistic effects on the reporter assay, these three nucleos(t)ide analogs acted additively with RBV in inhibiting HEV growth in cultured cells. Furthermore, SOF and 2CMG, with four interferons (IFN-α2b, IFN-λ1, IFN-λ2 and IFN-λ3), inhibited HEV growth efficiently and cleared HEV in cultured cells. These results suggest that, in combination with RBV or interferons, SOF and 2CMG would be promising bases for developing anti-HEV nucleos(t)ide analogs.

Endemicity and prevalence of multipartite viruses under heterogeneous between-host transmission

Multipartite viruses replicate through a puzzling evolutionary strategy. Their genome is segmented into two or more parts, and encapsidated in separate particles that appear to propagate independently. Completing the replication cycle, however, requires the full genome, so that a systemic infection of a host requires the concurrent presence of several particles. This represents an apparent evolutionary drawback of multipartitism, while its advantages remain unclear. A transition from monopartite to multipartite viral forms has been described in vitro under conditions of high multiplicity of infection, suggesting that cooperation between defective mutants is a plausible evolutionary pathway towards multipartitism. However, it is unknown how the putative advantages that multipartitism might enjoy at the microscopic level affect its epidemiology, or if an explicit advantange is needed to explain its ecological persistence. In order to disentangle which mechanisms might contribute to the rise and fixation of multipartitism, we here investigate the interaction between viral spreading dynamics and host population structure. We set up a compartmental model of the spread of a virus in its different forms and explore its epidemiology using both analytical and numerical techniques. We uncover that the impact of host contact structure on spreading dynamics entails a rich phenomenology of ecological relationships that includes cooperation, competition, and commensality. Furthermore, we find out that multipartitism might rise to fixation even in the absence of explicit microscopic advantages. Multipartitism allows the virus to colonize environments that could not be invaded by the monopartite form, while homogeneous contacts between hosts facilitate its spread. We conjecture that these features might have led to an increase in the diversity and prevalence of multipartite viral forms concomitantly with the expansion of agricultural practices.

Viral replication modes in single-peak fitness landscapes: A dynamical systems analysis

Positive-sense, single-stranded RNA viruses are important pathogens infecting almost all types of organisms. Experimental evidence from distributions of mutations and from viral RNA amplification suggest that these pathogens may follow different RNA replication modes, ranging from the stamping machine replication (SMR) to the geometric replication (GR) mode. Although previous theoretical work has focused on the evolutionary dynamics of RNA viruses amplifying their genomes with different strategies, little is known in terms of the bifurcations and transitions involving the so-called error threshold (mutation-induced dominance of mutants) and lethal mutagenesis (extinction of all sequences due to mutation accumulation and demographic stochasticity). Here we analyze a dynamical system describing the intracellular amplification of viral RNA genomes evolving on a single-peak fitness landscape focusing on three cases considering neutral, deleterious, and lethal mutants. We analytically derive the critical mutation rates causing lethal mutagenesis and error threshold, governed by transcritical bifurcations that depend on parameters α (parameter introducing the mode of replication), replicative fitness of mutants (k₁), and on the spontaneous degradation rates of the sequences (ϵ). Our results relate the error catastrophe with lethal mutagenesis in a model with continuous populations of viral genomes. The former case involves dominance of the mutant sequences, while the latter, a deterministic extinction of the viral RNAs during replication due to increased mutation. For the lethal case the critical mutation rate involving lethal mutagenesis is μ_c=1-ɛ/α. Here, the SMR involves lower critical mutation rates, being the system more robust to lethal mutagenesis replicating closer to the GR mode. This result is also found for the neutral and deleterious cases, but for these later cases lethal mutagenesis can shift to the error threshold once the replication mode surpasses a threshold given by α=ϵ/k₁.

Brevipalpus-transmitted viruses: parallelism beyond a common vector or convergent evolution of distantly related pathogens?

Although diseases caused by Brevipalpus-transmitted viruses (BTV) became relevant for agriculture a century ago, their causal agents have been only recently characterized and classified in two new genera of plant-infecting viruses: Cilevirus and Dichorhavirus. In this review, we highlight both similarities and differences between these viruses emphasizing their current taxonomy and historical classification, phylogeny, genomic organization, gene expression, and the latest research developments on BTVs. Additionally, we stress particular features of interactions with their mite vectors and plant hosts that support, from an evolutionary perspective, the potential convergence of both viral groups.

Low-fidelity Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus polymerase mutants to improve live-attenuated vaccine safety and efficacy

During RNA virus replication, there is the potential to incorporate mutations that affect virulence or pathogenesis. For live-attenuated vaccines, this has implications for stability, as replication may result in mutations that either restore the wild-type phenotype via reversion or compensate for the attenuating mutations by increasing virulence (pseudoreversion). Recent studies have demonstrated that altering the mutation rate of an RNA virus is an effective attenuation tool. To validate the safety of low-fidelity mutations to increase vaccine attenuation, several mutations in the RNA-dependent RNA-polymerase (RdRp) were tested in the live-attenuated Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus vaccine strain, TC-83. Next generation sequencing after passage in the presence of mutagens revealed a mutant containing three mutations in the RdRp, TC-83 3x, to have decreased replication fidelity, while a second mutant, TC-83 4x displayed no change in fidelity, but shared many phenotypic characteristics with TC-83 3x. Both mutants exhibited increased, albeit inconsistent attenuation in an infant mouse model, as well as increased immunogenicity and complete protection against lethal challenge of an adult murine model compared with the parent TC-83. During serial passaging in a highly permissive model, the mutants increased in virulence but remained less virulent than the parent TC-83. These results suggest that the incorporation of low-fidelity mutations into the RdRp of live-attenuated vaccines for RNA viruses can confer increased immunogenicity whilst showing some evidence of increased attenuation. However, while in theory such constructs may result in more effective vaccines, the instability of the vaccine phenotype decreases the likelihood of this being an effective vaccine strategy.

Mosquito bottlenecks alter viral mutant swarm in a tissue and time-dependent manner with contraction and expansion of variant positions and diversity

Viral diversity is theorized to play a significant role during virus infections, particularly for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) that must infect both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. To determine how viral diversity influences mosquito infection and dissemination Culex taeniopus mosquitoes were infected with the Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus endemic strain 68U201. Bodies and legs/wings of the mosquitoes were collected individually and subjected to multi-parallel sequencing. Virus sequence diversity was calculated for each tissue. Greater diversity was seen in mosquitoes with successful dissemination versus those with no dissemination. Diversity across time revealed that bottlenecks influence diversity following dissemination to the legs/wings, but levels of diversity are restored by Day 12 post-dissemination. Specific minority variants were repeatedly identified across the mosquito cohort, some in nearly every tissue and time point, suggesting that certain variants are important in mosquito infection and dissemination. This study demonstrates that the interaction between the mosquito and the virus results in changes in diversity and the mutational spectrum and may be essential for successful transition of the bottlenecks associated with arbovirus infection.

Multipartite viruses: adaptive trick or evolutionary treat?

Multipartitism counts amongst the weirdest lifestyles found in the virosphere. Multipartite viruses have genomes segmented in pieces enclosed in different capsids that are independently transmitted. Since all segments have to meet in the host for complementation and completion of the viral cycle, multipartite viruses are bound to fight the loss of genomic information. While this is an obvious disadvantage of this strategy, no consensus on its actual advantages has been reached. In this review we present an exhaustive summary of all multipartite viruses described to date. Based on evidence, we discuss possible mechanistic and evolutionary origins of different groups, as well as their mutual relationships. We argue that the ubiquitous interactions of viruses with other unrelated viruses and with subviral elements might be regarded as a plausible first step towards multipartitism. In agreement with the view of the Virosphere as a deeply entangled network of gene sharing, we contend that the power of multipartitism relies on its dynamical and opportunistic nature, because it enables immediate adaptive responses to environmental changes. As such, perhaps the reasons for its success should be shought in multipartitism itself as an adaptive mechanism, to which its evolutionarily short-lived products (that is, the extant ensemble of multipartite viral species) are subordinated. We close by discussing how our understanding of multipartitism would improve by using concepts and tools from systems biology.

The faithful transmission of the genome of an organism is a fundamental step to preserve information essential for survivability. However, multipartite viruses thrive with segmented genomes that propagate in independent viral particles. Though this adaptive strategy appears as counterintuitive and suboptimal, multipartitism is common in the viral world and has very likely arisen several times. Here we review the distribution and abundance of multipartite viruses and discuss possible evolutionary pathways for their emergence. Though no clear advantage of multipartitism has been identified, we suggest that the high prevalence of this strategy relies on its dynamic and opportunistic nature, and that it can only be understood in an ecological context. A systems biology perspective could help understanding some of the open questions regarding this weird lifestyle, while multipartitism could in turn inspire design principles based on the simultaneous exploration of an exploding number of transient collaborative associations.

Collective Infectious Units in Viruses

Increasing evidence indicates that viruses do not simply propagate as independent virions among cells, organs, and hosts. Instead, viral spread is often mediated by structures that simultaneously transport groups of viral genomes, such as polyploid virions, aggregates of virions, virion-containing proteinaceous structures, secreted lipid vesicles, and virus-induced cell-cell contacts. These structures increase the multiplicity of infection, independently of viral population density and transmission bottlenecks. Collective infectious units may contribute to the maintenance of viral genetic diversity, and could have implications for the evolution of social-like virus-virus interactions. These may include various forms of cooperation such as immunity evasion, genetic complementation, division of labor, and relaxation of fitness trade-offs, but also noncooperative interactions such as negative dominance and interference, potentially leading to conflict.

Two sides of the same coin: A population genetics perspective on lethal mutagenesis and mutational meltdown

The extinction of RNA virus populations upon application of a mutagenic drug is frequently referred to as evidence for the existence of an error threshold, above which the population cannot sustain the mutational load. To explain the extinction process after reaching this threshold, models of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed, in which extinction is described as a deterministic (and thus population size-independent) process. As a separate body of literature, the population genetics community has developed models of mutational meltdown, which focus on the stochastic (and thus population-size dependent) processes governing extinction. However, recent extensions of both models have blurred these boundaries. Here, we first clarify definitions in terms of assumptions, expectations, and relevant parameter spaces, and then assess similarities and differences. As concepts from both fields converge, we argue for a unified theoretical framework that is focused on the evolutionary processes at play, rather than dispute over terminology.

Single-Cell Analysis of RNA Virus Infection Identifies Multiple Genetically Diverse Viral Genomes within Single Infectious Units

Genetic diversity enables a virus to colonize novel hosts, evade immunity, and evolve drug resistance. However, viral diversity is typically assessed at the population level. Given the existence of cell-to-cell variation, it is critical to understand viral genetic structure at the single-cell level. By combining single-cell isolation with ultra-deep sequencing, we characterized the genetic structure and diversity of a RNA virus shortly after single-cell bottlenecks. Full-length sequences from 881 viral plaques derived from 90 individual cells reveal that sequence variants pre-existing in different viral genomes can be co-transmitted within the same infectious unit to individual cells. Further, the rate of spontaneous virus mutation varies across individual cells, and early production of diversity depends on the viral yield of the very first infected cell. These results unravel genetic and structural features of a virus at the single-cell level, with implications for viral diversity and evolution.

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Genetic diversity is found within viral units infecting an individual cell

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Viral particles within the same infectious unit interact genetically and functionally

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The production of viral genetic diversity is marked by widespread cell-to-cell variation

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Single-cell virus yields determine the early production viral genetic diversity

Arenavirus Quasispecies and Their Biological Implications

The family Arenaviridae currently comprises over 20 viral species, each of them associated with a main rodent species as the natural reservoir and in one case possibly phyllostomid bats. Moreover, recent findings have documented a divergent group of arenaviruses in captive alethinophidian snakes. Human infections occur through mucosal exposure to aerosols or by direct contact of abraded skin with infectious materials. Arenaviruses merit interest both as highly tractable experimental model systems to study acute and persistent infections and as clinically important human pathogens including Lassa (LASV) and Junin (JUNV) viruses, the causative agents of Lassa and Argentine hemorrhagic fevers (AHFs), respectively, for which there are no FDA-licensed vaccines, and current therapy is limited to an off-label use of ribavirin (Rib) that has significant limitations. Arenaviruses are enveloped viruses with a bi-segmented negative strand (NS) RNA genome. Each genome segment, L (ca 7.3 kb) and S (ca 3.5 kb), uses an ambisense coding strategy to direct the synthesis of two polypeptides in opposite orientation, separated by a noncoding intergenic region (IGR). The S genomic RNA encodes the virus nucleoprotein (NP) and the precursor (GPC) of the virus surface glycoprotein that mediates virus receptor recognition and cell entry via endocytosis. The L genome RNA encodes the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp, or L polymerase) and the small (ca 11 kDa) RING finger protein Z that has functions of a bona fide matrix protein including directing virus budding. Arenaviruses were thought to be relatively stable genetically with intra- and interspecies amino acid sequence identities of 90-95 % and 44-63 %, respectively. However, recent evidence has documented extensive arenavirus genetic variability in the field. Moreover, dramatic phenotypic differences have been documented among closely related LCMV isolates. These data provide strong evidence of viral quasispecies involvement in arenavirus adaptability and pathogenesis. Here, we will review several aspects of the molecular biology of arenaviruses, phylogeny and evolution, and quasispecies dynamics of arenavirus populations for a better understanding of arenavirus pathogenesis, as well as for the development of novel antiviral strategies to combat arenavirus infections.

Statistical properties and error threshold of quasispecies on single-peak Gaussian-distributed fitness landscapes

The stochastic Eigen model proposed by Feng et al. (2007) (Journal of Theoretical Biology, 246, 28) showed that error threshold is no longer a phase transition point but a crossover region whose width depends on the strength of the random fluctuation in an environment. The underlying cause of this phenomenon has not yet been well examined. In this article, we adopt a single peak Gaussian distributed fitness landscape instead of a constant one to investigate and analyze the change of the error threshold and the statistical property of the quasi-species population. We find a roughly linear relation between the width of the error threshold and the fitness fluctuation strength. For a given quasi-species, the fluctuation of the relative concentration has a minimum with a normal distribution of the relative concentration at the maximum of the averaged relative concentration, it has however a largest value with a bimodal distribution of the relative concentration near the error threshold. The above results deepen our understanding of the quasispecies and error threshold and are heuristic for exploring practicable antiviral strategies.

Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection

RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal mutagenesis.

Getting to Know Viral Evolutionary Strategies: Towards the Next Generation of Quasispecies Models

Viral populations are formed by complex ensembles of genomes with broad phenotypic diversity. The adaptive strategies deployed by these ensembles are multiple and often cannot be predicted a priori. Our understanding of viral dynamics is mostly based on two kinds of empirical approaches: one directed towards characterizing molecular changes underlying fitness changes and another focused on population-level responses. Simultaneously, theoretical efforts are directed towards developing a formal picture of viral evolution by means of more realistic fitness landscapes and reliable population dynamics models. New technologies, chiefly the use of next-generation sequencing and related tools, are opening avenues connecting the molecular and the population levels. In the near future, we hope to be witnesses of an integration of these still decoupled approaches, leading into more accurate and realistic quasispecies models able to capture robust generalities and endowed with a satisfactory predictive power.

Tautomerism provides a molecular explanation for the mutagenic properties of the anti-HIV nucleoside 5-aza-5,6-dihydro-2'-deoxycytidine

Viral lethal mutagenesis is a strategy whereby the innate immune system or mutagenic pool nucleotides increase the error rate of viral replication above the error catastrophe limit. Lethal mutagenesis has been proposed as a mechanism for several antiviral compounds, including the drug candidate 5-aza-5,6-dihydro-2'-deoxycytidine (KP1212), which causes A-to-G and G-to-A mutations in the HIV genome, both in tissue culture and in HIV positive patients undergoing KP1212 monotherapy. This work explored the molecular mechanism(s) underlying the mutagenicity of KP1212, and specifically whether tautomerism, a previously proposed hypothesis, could explain the biological consequences of this nucleoside analog. Establishing tautomerism of nucleic acid bases under physiological conditions has been challenging because of the lack of sensitive methods. This study investigated tautomerism using an array of spectroscopic, theoretical, and chemical biology approaches. Variable temperature NMR and 2D infrared spectroscopic methods demonstrated that KP1212 existed as a broad ensemble of interconverting tautomers, among which enolic forms dominated. The mutagenic properties of KP1212 were determined empirically by in vitro and in vivo replication of a single-stranded vector containing a single KP1212. It was found that KP1212 paired with both A (10%) and G (90%), which is in accord with clinical observations. Moreover, this mutation frequency is sufficient for pushing a viral population over its error catastrophe limit, as observed before in cell culture studies. Finally, a model is proposed that correlates the mutagenicity of KP1212 with its tautomeric distribution in solution.

Variability in mutational fitness effects prevents full lethal transitions in large quasispecies populations

The distribution of mutational fitness effects (DMFE) is crucial to the evolutionary fate of quasispecies. In this article we analyze the effect of the DMFE on the dynamics of a large quasispecies by means of a phenotypic version of the classic Eigen's model that incorporates beneficial, neutral, deleterious, and lethal mutations. By parameterizing the model with available experimental data on the DMFE of Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) and Tobacco etch virus (TEV), we found that increasing mutation does not totally push the entire viral quasispecies towards deleterious or lethal regions of the phenotypic sequence space. The probability of finding regions in the parameter space of the general model that results in a quasispecies only composed by lethal phenotypes is extremely small at equilibrium and in transient times. The implications of our findings can be extended to other scenarios, such as lethal mutagenesis or genomically unstable cancer, where increased mutagenesis has been suggested as a potential therapy.

Evolutionary invasion and escape in the presence of deleterious mutations

Replicators such as parasites invading a new host species, species invading a new ecological niche, or cancer cells invading a new tissue often must mutate to adapt to a new environment. It is often argued that a higher mutation rate will favor evolutionary invasion and escape from extinction. However, most mutations are deleterious, and even lethal. We study the probability that the lineage will survive and invade successfully as a function of the mutation rate when both the initial strain and an adaptive mutant strain are threatened by lethal mutations. We show that mutations are beneficial, i.e. a non-zero mutation rate increases survival compared to the limit of no mutations, if in the no-mutation limit the survival probability of the initial strain is smaller than the average survival probability of the strains which are one mutation away. The mutation rate that maximizes survival depends on the characteristics of both the initial strain and the adaptive mutant, but if one strain is closer to the threshold governing survival then its properties will have greater influence. These conclusions are robust for more realistic or mechanistic depictions of the fitness landscapes such as a more detailed viral life history, or non-lethal deleterious mutations.

Intergenerational phenotypic mixing in viral evolution

Viral particles (virions) are made of genomic material packaged with proteins, drawn from the pool of proteins in the parent cell. It is well known that when virion concentrations are high, cells can be coinfected with multiple viral strains that can complement each other. Viral genomes can then interact with proteins derived from different strains, in a phenomenon known as phenotypic mixing. But phenotypic mixing is actually far more common: viruses mutate very often, and each time a mutation occurs, the parent cell contains different types of viral genomes. Due to phenotypic mixing, changes in viral phenotypes can be shifted by a generation from the mutations that cause them. In the regime of evolutionary invasion and escape, when mutations are crucial for the virus to survive, this timing can have a large influence on the probability of emergence of an adapted strain. Modeling the dynamics of viral evolution in these contexts thus requires attention to the mutational mechanism and the determinants of fitness.

Back to the future: revisiting HIV-1 lethal mutagenesis

The concept of eliminating HIV-1 infectivity by elevating the viral mutation rate was first proposed over a decade ago, even though the general concept had been conceived earlier for RNA viruses. Lethal mutagenesis was originally viewed as a novel chemotherapeutic approach for treating HIV-1 infection in which use of a viral mutagen would over multiple rounds of replication lead to the lethal accumulation of mutations, rendering the virus population noninfectious - known as the slow mutation accumulation model. There have been limitations in obtaining good efficacy data with drug leads, leaving some doubt on clinical translation. More recent studies of the apolipoprotein B mRNA editing complex 3 (APOBEC3) proteins as well as new progress in the use of nucleoside analogs for inducing lethal mutagenesis have helped to refocus attention on rapid induction of HIV-1 lethal mutagenesis in a single or limited number of replication cycles leading to a rapid mutation accumulation model.

The impact of quasispecies dynamics on the use of therapeutics

The application of quasispecies theory to viral populations has boosted our understanding of how endogenous and exogenous features condition their adaptation. Mounting empirical evidence demonstrates that internal interactions within mutant spectra may cause unexpected responses to antiviral treatments. In this scenario, increased mutagenesis could be efficient at low mutagen doses due to the lethal action of defective genomes, whereas sequential administration of antiviral drugs might be superior to combination therapies. Our ability to predict the outcome of a particular therapy takes advantage of the complementary use of in vivo observations, in vitro experiments, and mathematical models.

A Branching Process for Virus Survival

Quasispecies theory predicts that there is a critical mutation probability above which a viral population will go extinct. Above this threshold the virus loses the ability to replicate the best-adapted genotype, leading to a population composed of low replicating mutants that is eventually doomed. We propose a new branching model that shows that this is not necessarily so. That is, a population composed of ever changing mutants may survive.

A Branching Process for Virus Survival

Quasispecies theory predicts that there is a critical mutation probability above which a viral population will go extinct. Above this threshold the virus loses the ability to replicate the best-adapted genotype, leading to a population composed of low replicating mutants that is eventually doomed. We propose a new branching model that shows that this is not necessarily so. That is, a population composed of ever changing mutants may survive.

Implications of altered replication fidelity on the evolution and pathogenesis of coronaviruses

RNA virus evolution results from viral replication fidelity and mutational robustness in combination with selection. Recent studies have confirmed the impact of increased fidelity on RNA virus replication and pathogenesis; however, the impact of decreased fidelity is less defined. Coronaviruses have the largest RNA genomes, and encode an exoribonuclease activity that is required for high-fidelity replication. Genetically stable exoribonuclease mutants will allow direct testing of viral mutational tolerance to RNA mutagens and other selective pressures. Recent studies support the hypothesis that coronavirus replication fidelity may result from a multi-protein complex, suggesting multiple pathways to disrupt or alter virus fidelity and diversity, and attenuate pathogenesis.

Viral quasispecies evolution

Evolution of RNA viruses occurs through disequilibria of collections of closely related mutant spectra or mutant clouds termed viral quasispecies. Here we review the origin of the quasispecies concept and some biological implications of quasispecies dynamics. Two main aspects are addressed: (i) mutant clouds as reservoirs of phenotypic variants for virus adaptability and (ii) the internal interactions that are established within mutant spectra that render a virus ensemble the unit of selection. The understanding of viruses as quasispecies has led to new antiviral designs, such as lethal mutagenesis, whose aim is to drive viruses toward low fitness values with limited chances of fitness recovery. The impact of quasispecies for three salient human pathogens, human immunodeficiency virus and the hepatitis B and C viruses, is reviewed, with emphasis on antiviral treatment strategies. Finally, extensions of quasispecies to nonviral systems are briefly mentioned to emphasize the broad applicability of quasispecies theory.

Biomedical implications of viral mutation and evolution

Mutation rates vary hugely across viruses and strongly determine their evolution. In addition, viral mutation and evolution are biomedically relevant because they can determine pathogenesis, vaccine efficacy and antiviral resistance. We review experimental methods for estimating viral mutation rates and how these estimates vary across viral groups, paying special attention to the more general trends. Recent advances positing a direct association between viral mutation rates and virulence, or the use of high-fidelity variants as attenuated vaccines, are also discussed. Finally, we review the implications of viral mutation and evolution for the design of rational antiviral therapies and for efficient epidemiological surveillance.

Mutagenesis-mediated virus extinction: virus-dependent effect of viral load on sensitivity to lethal defection

BACKGROUND

Lethal mutagenesis is a transition towards virus extinction mediated by enhanced mutation rates during viral genome replication, and it is currently under investigation as a potential new antiviral strategy. Viral load and virus fitness are known to influence virus extinction. Here we examine the effect or the multiplicity of infection (MOI) on progeny production of several RNA viruses under enhanced mutagenesis.

RESULTS

The effect of the mutagenic base analogue 5-fluorouracil (FU) on the replication of the arenavirus lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) can result either in inhibition of progeny production and virus extinction in infections carried out at low multiplicity of infection (MOI), or in a moderate titer decrease without extinction at high MOI. The effect of the MOI is similar for LCMV and vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), but minimal or absent for the picornaviruses foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and encephalomyocarditis virus (EMCV). The increase in mutation frequency and Shannon entropy (mutant spectrum complexity) as a result of virus passage in the presence of FU was more accentuated at low MOI for LCMV and VSV, and at high MOI for FMDV and EMCV. We present an extension of the lethal defection model that agrees with the experimental results.

CONCLUSIONS

(i) Low infecting load favoured the extinction of negative strand viruses, LCMV or VSV, with an increase of mutant spectrum complexity. (ii) This behaviour is not observed in RNA positive strand viruses, FMDV or EMCV. (iii) The accumulation of defector genomes may underlie the MOI-dependent behaviour. (iv) LCMV coinfections are allowed but superinfection is strongly restricted in BHK-21 cells. (v) The dissimilar effects of the MOI on the efficiency of mutagenic-based extinction of different RNA viruses can have implications for the design of antiviral protocols based on lethal mutagenesis, presently under development.

Tempo and mode of inhibitor-mutagen antiviral therapies: a multidisciplinary approach

The continuous emergence of drug-resistant viruses is a major obstacle for the successful treatment of viral infections, thus representing a persistent spur to the search for new therapeutic strategies. Among them, multidrug treatments are currently at the forefront of pharmaceutical, clinical, and computational investigation. Still, there are many unknowns in the way that different drugs interact among themselves and with the pathogen that they aim to control. Inspired by experimental studies with picornavirus, here, we discuss the performance of sequential vs. combination therapies involving two dissimilar drugs: the mutagen ribavirin and an inhibitor of viral replication, guanidine. Because a systematic analysis of viral response to drug doses demands a precious amount of time and resources, we present and analyze an in silico model describing the dynamics of the viral population under the action of the two drugs. The model predicts the response of the viral population to any dose combination, the optimal therapy to be used in each case, and the way to minimize the probability of appearance of resistant mutants. In agreement with the theoretical predictions, in vitro experiments with foot-and-mouth disease virus confirm that the suitability of simultaneous or sequential administration depends on the drug doses. In addition, intrinsic replicative characteristics of the virus (e.g., replication through RNA only or a DNA intermediate) play a key role to determine the appropriateness of a sequential or combination therapy. Knowledge of several model parameters can be derived by means of few, simple experiments, such that the model and its predictions can be extended to other viral systems.

Severe hindrance of viral infection propagation in spatially extended hosts

The production of large progeny numbers affected by high mutation rates is a ubiquitous strategy of viruses, as it promotes quick adaptation and survival to changing environments. However, this situation often ushers in an arms race between the virus and the host cells. In this paper we investigate in depth a model for the dynamics of a phenotypically heterogeneous population of viruses whose propagation is limited to two-dimensional geometries, and where host cells are able to develop defenses against infection. Our analytical and numerical analyses are developed in close connection to directed percolation models. In fact, we show that making the space explicit in the model, which in turn amounts to reducing viral mobility and hindering the infective ability of the virus, connects our work with similar dynamical models that lie in the universality class of directed percolation. In addition, we use the fact that our model is a multicomponent generalization of the Domany-Kinzel probabilistic cellular automaton to employ several techniques developed in the past in that context, such as the two-site approximation to the extinction transition line. Our aim is to better understand propagation of viral infections with mobility restrictions, e.g., in crops or in plant leaves, in order to inspire new strategies for effective viral control.

Struggle for space: viral extinction through competition for cells

The design of protocols to suppress the propagation of viral infections is an enduring enterprise, especially hindered by limited knowledge of the mechanisms leading to viral extinction. Here we report on infection extinction due to intraspecific competition to infect susceptible hosts. Beneficial mutations increase the production of viral progeny, while the host cell may develop defenses against infection. For an unlimited number of host cells, a feedback runaway coevolution between host resistance and progeny production occurs. However, physical space limits the advantage that the virus obtains from increasing offspring numbers; thus, infection clearance may result from an increase in host defenses beyond a finite threshold. Our results might be relevant to devise improved control strategies in environments with mobility constraints or different geometrical properties.

Lethal mutagenesis and evolutionary epidemiology

The lethal mutagenesis hypothesis states that within-host populations of pathogens can be driven to extinction when the load of deleterious mutations is artificially increased with a mutagen, and becomes too high for the population to be maintained. Although chemical mutagens have been shown to lead to important reductions in viral titres for a wide variety of RNA viruses, the theoretical underpinnings of this process are still not clearly established. A few recent models sought to describe lethal mutagenesis but they often relied on restrictive assumptions. We extend this earlier work in two novel directions. First, we derive the dynamics of the genetic load in a multivariate Gaussian fitness landscape akin to classical quantitative genetics models. This fitness landscape yields a continuous distribution of mutation effects on fitness, ranging from deleterious to beneficial (i.e. compensatory) mutations. We also include an additional class of lethal mutations. Second, we couple this evolutionary model with an epidemiological model accounting for the within-host dynamics of the pathogen. We derive the epidemiological and evolutionary equilibrium of the system. At this equilibrium, the density of the pathogen is expected to decrease linearly with the genomic mutation rate U. We also provide a simple expression for the critical mutation rate leading to extinction. Stochastic simulations show that these predictions are accurate for a broad range of parameter values. As they depend on a small set of measurable epidemiological and evolutionary parameters, we used available information on several viruses to make quantitative and testable predictions on critical mutation rates. In the light of this model, we discuss the feasibility of lethal mutagenesis as an efficient therapeutic strategy.

Selection for thermostability can lead to the emergence of mutational robustness in an RNA virus

Mutational robustness has important evolutionary implications, yet the mechanisms leading to its emergence remain poorly understood. One possibility is selection acting on a correlated trait, as for instance thermostability (plastogenetic congruence). Here, we examine the correlation between mutational robustness and thermostability in experimental populations of the RNA bacteriophage Qβ. Thermostable viruses evolved after only six serial passages in the presence of heat shocks, and genome sequencing suggested that thermostability can be conferred by several alternative mutations. To test whether thermostable viruses have increased mutational robustness, we performed additional passages in the presence of nitrous acid. Whereas in control lines this treatment produced the expected reduction in growth rate caused by the accumulation of deleterious mutations, thermostable viruses showed no such reduction, indicating that they are more resistant to mutagenesis. Our results suggest that selection for thermostability can lead to the emergence of mutational robustness driven by plastogenetic congruence. As temperature is a widespread selective pressure in nature, the mechanism described here may be relevant to the evolution of mutational robustness.

Evolution models with lethal mutations on symmetric or random fitness landscapes

We calculate the mean fitness for evolution models, when the fitness is a function of the Hamming distance from a reference sequence, and there is a probability that this fitness is nullified (Eigen model case) or tends to the negative infinity (Crow-Kimura model case). We calculate the mean fitness of these models. The mean fitness is calculated also for the random fitnesses with logarithmic-normal distribution, reasonably describing sometimes the situation with RNA viruses.