Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

One health in the Arctic - connections and actions

There is growing awareness and recognition of the importance of the One Health paradigm to address existing environmental threats and recognise emerging ones at an early stage among Arctic residents, public health agencies, and wildlife resource managers. The One Health approach, emphasising the interconnectedness of human, animal, and ecosystem health, plays a pivotal role in addressing these multifaceted issues. Warming climate and permafrost thaw may influence both contaminant exposure and the spread of zoonotic infectious diseases and have impacts on water and food security. Migration from rural regions to larger communities and urban centres along with increased tourism may be accompanied by changes in exposure to contaminants and zoonotic diseases. Universities have developed educational programmes and research projects on One Health in the Arctic, and under the Arctic Council there is running a project of One Arctic, One Health. These arctivities have produced interdisciplinary information and practical solutions for local communities, decision-makers, and in scientific forums. There is a need for epidemiological zoonotic/human disease models, as well as new approaches to integrate existing and future surveillance data to climatic and environmental data. This requires not only regional and international collaboration but also multi-agency and transdisciplinary research.

Delineating dengue risk zones in Jaipur: An interdisciplinary approach to inform public health strategies

Dengue fever (DF) is a pervasive public health concern in tropical climates, with densely populated regions, such as India, disproportionately affected. Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted understanding of the environmental and sociocultural factors that contribute to the risk of dengue infection. This study aimed to identify high-risk zones for DF in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, by integrating physical, demographic, and epidemiological data in a comprehensive risk analysis framework. We investigated environmental variables, such as soil type and plant cover, to characterize the potential habitats of Aedes aegypti, the primary dengue vector. Concurrently, demographic metrics were evaluated to assess the population's susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. High-risk areas were systematically identified through a comparative analysis that integrated population density and incidence rates per ward. The results revealed a significant correlation between high population density and an increased risk of dengue, predominantly facilitated by vertical transmission. Spatially, these high-risk zones are concentrated in the northern and southern sectors of Jaipur, with the northern and southwestern wards exhibiting the most acute risk profiles. This study underscores the importance of targeted public health interventions and vaccination campaigns in vulnerable areas. It further lays the groundwork for future research to evaluate the effectiveness of such interventions, thereby contributing to the development of robust evidence-based strategies for dengue risk mitigation.

Nationwide survey of ticks on domesticated animals in Taiwan: Revealing the hidden threat to animal and public health

Ticks are not only bloodsucking ectoparasites but also important vectors of tick-borne diseases (TBDs), posing significant threats to public and animal health. Domesticated animals serve as critical hosts for numerous ticks, highlighting the importance of understanding tick infestations in Taiwan. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a nationwide survey to identify ticks on domesticated animals and associated environments in 2018 and 2019. A total of 6,205 ticks were collected from 1,337 host animals, revealing the presence of seven tick species, with Rhipicephalus microplus, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus being the dominant species. High infestation rates and widespread distribution of ticks were observed on domesticated animals, especially on dogs and cattle (yellow cattle and angus cattle), and the neighbouring grassland of yellow cattle. While this study has certain limitations, it provides valuable insights into the distribution and prevalence of ticks on domesticated animals in Taiwan and their implications for controlling TBDs. Further research is needed to comprehensively understand the complex interactions among ticks, hosts and pathogens.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control.

METHODS

This study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions.

RESULTS

Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.

LaSap vaccine: Immunotherapy and immunochemotherapy associated with allopurinol in dogs naturally infected with Leishmania infantum

Canine visceral leishmaniasis is a parasitic zoonosis that has a profound impact on public health in countries where it is endemic. Chemotherapeutic treatments cannot keep dogs stable for long periods, and the risk of generating parasitic resistance must be considered. Forty-four symptomatic and naturally infected dogs with Leishmania infantum were tested with two treatment protocols (i) immunotherapy with LaSap vaccine and (ii) immunochemotherapy with LaSap vaccine plus allopurinol. At 90 days after the end of the treatment, it was verified that, although both protocols had generated significant clinical improvements with a greater production of IFN-γ/IL-10, in relation to the parasite load, mainly in the skin, the dogs treated only with immunotherapy maintained the same profile. These results indicate that LaSap is a good strategy to control dog parasitism.

Environmental and geographical factors influence the occurrence and abundance of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, in Hawai'i

Hawaiian honeycreepers, a group of endemic Hawaiian forest birds, are being threatened by avian malaria, a non-native disease that is driving honeycreepers populations to extinction. Avian malaria is caused by the parasite Plasmodium relictum, which is transmitted by the invasive mosquito Culex quinquefasciatus. Environmental and geographical factors play an important role in shaping mosquito-borne disease transmission dynamics through their influence on the distribution and abundance of mosquitoes. We assessed the effects of environmental (temperature, precipitation), geographic (site, elevation, distance to anthropogenic features), and trap type (CDC light trap, CDC gravid trap) factors on mosquito occurrence and abundance. Occurrence was analyzed using classification and regression tree models (CART) and generalized linear models (GLM); abundance (count data) was analyzed using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Models predicted highest mosquito occurrence at mid-elevation sites and between July and November. Occurrence increased with temperature and precipitation up to 580 mm. For abundance, the best model was a zero-inflated negative-binomial model that indicated higher abundance of mosquitoes at mid-elevation sites and peak abundance between August and October. Estimation of occurrence and abundance as well as understanding the factors that influence them are key for mosquito control, which may reduce the risk of forest bird extinction.

Phenotypic adaptation to temperature in the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti

Most models exploring the effects of climate change on mosquito-borne disease ignore thermal adaptation. However, if local adaptation leads to changes in mosquito thermal responses, "one size fits all" models could fail to capture current variation between populations and future adaptive responses to changes in temperature. Here, we assess phenotypic adaptation to temperature in Aedes aegypti, the primary vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. First, to explore whether there is any difference in existing thermal response of mosquitoes between populations, we used a thermal knockdown assay to examine five populations of Ae. aegypti collected from climatically diverse locations in Mexico, together with a long-standing laboratory strain. We identified significant phenotypic variation in thermal tolerance between populations. Next, to explore whether such variation can be generated by differences in temperature, we conducted an experimental passage study by establishing six replicate lines from a single field-derived population of Ae. aegypti from Mexico, maintaining half at 27°C and the other half at 31°C. After 10 generations, we found a significant difference in mosquito performance, with the lines maintained under elevated temperatures showing greater thermal tolerance. Moreover, these differences in thermal tolerance translated to shifts in the thermal performance curves for multiple life-history traits, leading to differences in overall fitness. Together, these novel findings provide compelling evidence that Ae. aegypti populations can and do differ in thermal response, suggesting that simplified thermal performance models might be insufficient for predicting the effects of climate on vector-borne disease transmission.

Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of age-structured malaria model with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability

This paper presents an age-structured mathematical model for malaria transmission dynamics with asymptomatic carrier and temperature variability. The temperature variability function is fitted to the temperature data, and the malaria model is then fitted to the malaria cases and validated to check its suitability. Time-dependent controls were considered, including Long Lasting Insecticide Nets, treatment of symptomatic, screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers and spray of insecticides. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to derive the necessary conditions for optimal control of the disease. The numerical simulations of the optimal control problem reveal that the strategy involving the combination of all four controls is the most effective in reducing the number of infected individuals. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis shows that treatment of symptomatic, screening and treatment of asymptomatic carriers and insecticide spraying is the most cost-effective strategy to implement to control malaria transmission when available resources are limited.

Joint influence of architectural and spatiotemporal factors on the presence of Aedes aegypti in urban environments

BACKGROUND

Urbanization has led to the proliferation of high-rise buildings, which have substantially influenced the distribution of dengue vectors, such as Aedes aegypti (L.). However, knowledge gaps exist regarding the individual and combined effects of architectural and spatiotemporal factors on dengue vector. This study investigated the interrelationship between Ae. aegypti presence, building architectural features, and spatiotemporal factors in urban environments.

RESULTS

The mosquito Ae. aegypti presence varied by location and seasons, being higher in outdoor environments than in indoor environments. Lingya (Kaohsiung City, Taiwan) had the highest mosquito numbers, particularly in basement and first floor areas. Ae. aegypti was found on multiple floors within buildings, and their presence was greater in summer and autumn. The XGBoost model revealed that height within a building, temperature, humidity, resident density, and rainfall were key factors influencing mosquito presence, whereas openness had a relatively minor impact.

CONCLUSION

To effectively address the problems caused by urbanization, the three-dimensional distribution of Ae. aegypti, including their spatial distribution across heights and areas within the urban environment, must be considered. By incorporating these multiple factors, this approach provides valuable insights for those responsible for urban planning and disease management strategies. Understanding the interplay between architectural features, environmental conditions, and the presence of Ae. aegypti is essential for developing targeted interventions and mitigating the adverse impacts of urbanization on public health. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Larvicidal constituents from Poncirus trifoliata root extracts

In the search for effective and environmentally friendly mosquito control agents, we have examined natural sources, such as microbes and plants, and the synthetic analogs of natural products. These plants and microbes have evolved in their ecological niches to produce defensive compounds against other competing organisms in their surroundings such as microbes, plants, and insects as a means to enhance their survival. Thus, some of these plants and microbes have bioactive compounds with insecticidal, fungicidal, and phytotoxic activities. In our previous research, we successfully isolated bioactive constituents from natural sources. We have carried out synthetic modifications and total synthesis of marginally active isolated compounds to achieve significantly higher active compounds. We have focused on plants in the Rutaceae family as the members of this family are known to possess bioactive compounds with algicidal, antifungal, insecticidal, and fungicidal activities. In this article, we report the isolation and structure elucidation of mosquito larvicidal constituents from Poncirus trifoliata (Rutaceae) root extract.

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Oviposition Activity and the Associated Socio-environmental Factors in the New Orleans Area

The transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is on the rise globally. Their mosquito vectors, Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, Diptera: Culicidae) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, Diptera: Culicidae), are focally abundant in the Southern United States. Mosquito surveillance is an important component of a mosquito control program. However, there is a lack of long-term surveillance data and an incomplete understanding of the factors influencing vector populations in the Southern United States. Our surveillance program monitored Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus oviposition intensity in the New Orleans area using ovicups in a total of 75 sites from 2009 to 2016. We found both Aedes spp. throughout the study period and sites. The average number of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus hatched from collected eggs per site per week was 34.1 (SD = 57.7) and 29.0 (SD = 46.5), respectively. Based on current literature, we formed multiple hypotheses on how environmental variables influence Aedes oviposition intensity, and constructed Generalized Linear Mixed Effect models with a negative binomial distribution and an autocorrelation structure to test these hypotheses. We found significant associations between housing unit density and Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus oviposition intensity, and between median household income and Ae. albopictus oviposition intensity. Temperature, relative humidity, and accumulated rainfall had either a lagged or an immediate significant association with oviposition. This study provides the first long-term record of Aedes spp. distribution in the New Orleans area, and sheds light on factors associated with their oviposition activity. This information is vital for the control of potential Aedes-borne virus transmission in this area.

Climate Change and the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases in the United States

The earth is rapidly warming, driven by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other gases that result primarily from fossil fuel combustion. In addition to causing arctic ice melting and extreme weather events, climatologic factors are linked strongly to the transmission of many infectious diseases. Changes in the prevalence of infectious diseases not only reflect the impacts of temperature, humidity, and other weather-related phenomena on pathogens, vectors, and animal hosts but are also part of a complex of social and environmental factors that will be affected by climate change, including land use, migration, and vector control. Vector- and waterborne diseases and coccidioidomycosis are all likely to be affected by a warming planet; there is also potential for climate-driven impacts on emerging infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance. Additional resources for surveillance and public health activities are urgently needed, as well as systematic education of clinicians on the health impacts of climate change.

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.

The long-distance relationship between Dirofilaria and the UK: case report and literature review

Over the last two decades, vector-borne pathogens (VBPs) have changed their distribution across the globe as a consequence of a variety of environmental, socioeconomic and geopolitical factors. Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are perfect exemplars of European VBPs of One Health concern that have undergone profound changes in their distribution, with new hotspots of infection appearing in previously non-endemic countries. Some areas, such as the United Kingdom, are still considered non-endemic. However, a combination of climate change and the potential spread of invasive mosquito species may change this scenario, exposing the country to the risk of outbreaks of filarial infections. Only a limited number of non-autochthonous cases have been recorded in the United Kingdom to date. These infections remain a diagnostic challenge for clinicians unfamiliar with these "exotic" parasites, which in turn complicates the approach to treatment and management. Therefore, this review aims to (i) describe the first case of D. repens infection in a dog currently resident in Scotland, (ii) summarise the available literature on Dirofilaria spp. infections in both humans and animals in the United Kingdom and (iii) assess the suitability of the United Kingdom for the establishment of these new VBPs.

Molecular survey of Zika virus in the animal-human interface in traditional farming

Backyard animal husbandry is common in rural communities in developing countries and, given the conditions in which it occurs, it can increase the risk of disease transmission, such as arboviruses. To determine the presence of the Zika virus (ZIKV) and abundance of its arthropod vectors we evaluated the socioeconomic implications involved in its transmission in two highly vulnerable Mayan communities in the state of Yucatan that practice backyard farming. An analytical cross-sectional study was carried out throughout 2016 to understand socioeconomic variables and seasonal patterns in mosquito populations. We selected 20 households from each community. Social exclusion indicators were analyzed, human and domestic animals were sampled, and mosquitoes were collected and identified. Four out of eight indicators of social exclusion were higher than the reported national averages. We captured 5,825 mosquitoes from 16 species being Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti the most abundant. The presence of chickens and human overcrowding in dwellings were the most significant factors (P = 0.026) associated with the presence of Ae. aegypti. Septic tanks (odds ratio = 6.64) and chickens (odds ratio = 27.41) in backyards were the main risk factors associated with the presence of immature states of Ae. aegypti in both communities. Molecular analysis to detect ZIKV was performed in blood samples from 416 humans, 1,068 backyard animals and 381 mosquito pools. Eighteen humans and 10 pig pools tested positive for ZIKV. Forty-three mosquito pools tested positive for flavivirus. Ten of the 43 pools of positive mosquitoes were sequenced, corresponding 3/10 to ZIKV and 1/10 to Dengue virus type 2. The findings obtained indicate the continuous circulation of Flavivirus (including ZIKV) in backyard environments in vulnerable communities, highlighting the importance of studying their transmission and maintenance in these systems, due that backyard animal husbandry is a common practice in these vulnerable communities with limited access to health services.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico

Background

The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) clusters in Mexico.

Methods

We present an integrated analysis of Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs), the local climate, and the socio-demographic profiles of 2469 municipalities in Mexico. We used SaTScan to detect spatial clusters and utilize the Pearson correlation coefficient, Randomized Dependence Coefficient, and SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyze the influence of socio-demographic and climatic factors on the prevalence of ABDs. We also compare six machine learning techniques, including XGBoost, decision tree, Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function kernel, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural network to predict risk factors of ABDs clusters.

Results

DENV is the most prevalent of the three diseases throughout Mexico, with nearly 60.6% of the municipalities reported having DENV cases. For some spatiotemporal clusters, the influence of socio-economic attributes is larger than the influence of climate attributes for predicting the prevalence of ABDs. XGBoost performs the best in terms of precision-measure for ABDs prevalence.

Conclusions

Both socio-demographic and climatic factors influence ABDs transmission in different regions of Mexico. Future studies should build predictive models supporting early warning systems to anticipate the time and location of ABDs outbreaks and determine the stand-alone influence of individual risk factors and establish causal mechanisms.

Global trends in research on the effects of climate change on Aedes aegypti: international collaboration has increased, but some critical countries lag behind

Background

Mosquito-borne diseases (e.g., transmitted by Aedes aegypti) affect almost 700 million people each year and result in the deaths of more than 1 million people annually.

Methods

We examined research undertaken during the period 1951–2020 on the effects of temperature and climate change on Ae. aegypti, and also considered research location and between-country collaborations.

Results

The frequency of publications on the effects of climate change on Ae. aegypti increased over the period examined, and this topic received more attention than the effects of temperature alone on this species. The USA, UK, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina were the dominant research hubs, while other countries fell behind with respect to number of scientific publications and/or collaborations. The occurrence of Ae. aegypti and number of related dengue cases in the latter are very high, and climate change scenarios predict changes in the range expansion and/or occurrence of this species in these countries.

Conclusions

We conclude that some of the countries at risk of expanding Ae. aegypti populations have poor research networks that need to be strengthened. A number of mechanisms can be considered for the improvement of international collaboration, representativity and diversity, such as research networks, internationalization programs, and programs that enhance representativity. These types of collaboration are considered important to expand the relevant knowledge of these countries and for the development of management strategies in response to climate change scenarios.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05473-7.

The African swine fever modelling challenge: Objectives, model description and synthetic data generation

African swine fever (ASF) is an emerging disease currently spreading at the interface between wild boar and pig farms in Europe and Asia. Current disease control regulations, which involve massive culling with significant economic and animal welfare costs, need to be improved. Modelling enables relevant control measures to be explored, but conducting the exercise during an epidemic is extremely difficult. Modelling challenges enhance modellers' ability to timely advice policy makers, improve their readiness when facing emerging threats, and promote international collaborations. The ASF-Challenge, which ran between August 2020 and January 2021, was the first modelling challenge in animal health. In this paper, we describe the objectives and rules of the challenge. We then demonstrate the mechanistic multi-host model that was used to mimic as accurately as possible an ASF-like epidemic, provide a detailed explanation of the surveillance and intervention strategies that generated the synthetic data, and describe the different management strategies that were assessed by the competing modelling teams. We then outline the different technical steps of the challenge as well as its environment. Finally, we synthesize the lessons we learnt along the way to guide future modelling challenges in animal health.

Circular Policy: A New Approach to Vector and Vector-Borne Diseases’ Management in Line with the Global Vector Control Response (2017–2030)

Integrated Vector Management (IVM) has yielded exemplary results in combating and preventing vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and their vectors. It’s success and positive outcomes depend on the sound planning, implementation, enforcement, and validation of the locally adapted vector control efforts from the involved national sectors and stakeholders. Nevertheless, current realities create several implications impeding IVM’s performance. Hence, there is a need to adjust local IVM plans to several factors, such as (i) the rapidly changing and unpredictable environmental conditions (i.e., climate change, shift on species distribution, invasive species—Anopheles stephensi, Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus); (ii) the environmental impacts from human activities (i.e., fossil fuel use, food sources, industry, land use, urbanization and deforestation); (iii) changes in human demographics and the international movement of people (travelers and forcibly displaced persons due to conflicts and severe weather) increasing the risk of contracting and transmitting vector-borne diseases and shifting humanitarian emergencies and societal demands; (iv) the SARS-CoV2 pandemic outbreak and the implication on national public health systems; (v) the continuous flow of technological advancements and newly acquired knowledge; (vi) the realization of the strong link between planetary health and public health. Addressing these factors in IVM can become difficult, taking into consideration the numerous involved sectors, stakeholders, and fields in the management of vectors and vector-borne diseases (VBD). This document proposes and discusses the aspects and steps of a holistic approach, referenced as the Circular Policy, for national and local IVM strategies to be effective and adaptable, capable of providing the optimum outcomes.

Spatial dynamics of dengue fever spreading for the coexistence of two serotypes with an application to the city of São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Dengue fever is a disease in which individuals' spatial distribution and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes breeding places are important factors for the disease dynamics. Typically urban, dengue is a problem for least developed countries due to the ineffectiveness in controlling the vector and disorderly urbanization processes. The result is a composition of urban sanitation problems and areas with high demographic densities and intense flows of people. This paper explores the spatial distribution of vector breeding places to evaluate introducing a new dengue serotype to a population at equilibrium for a pre-existing serotype. The paper's objective is to analyze the spatial dynamics of dengue using variations of the basic reproduction number.

METHODS

A model based on probabilistic cellular automata is proposed to permitting the necessary flexibility to consider some spatial distributions of vector breeding places. Then, ordinary differential equations are used as a mean-field approach of the model, and the basic reproduction number (R₀) is derived considering the next-generation matrix method. A spatial approach for R₀ is also proposed, and the model is tested in a neighbourhood from the city of São Paulo, Brazil, to examine the potential risks of vector breeding cells distribution.

RESULTS

The results indicated that the more spread out these places, the higher are the values of R₀. When the model is applied to a neighbourhood in São Paulo, residential areas may boost the infections and must be under public vigilance to combat vector breeding sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the mean-field approximation of the cellular automata model by ordinary differential equations, the basic reproduction number derived returned an estimative of the disease dynamics in the population. However, the spatial basic reproduction number was more assertive in showing areas with a higher disease incidence. Moreover, the model could be easily adapted to be used in real maps enabling simulations closer to real problems.

Culicidae (Diptera: Culicomorpha) in the southern Brazilian 'Ana Leuch Lozovei' collection, with notes on distribution and diversity

Biological collections are important for acquiring knowledge of the biodiversity of a specific environment. Here, we organize, list and catalog adult specimens of Culicidae from the Parasitology Collection of the Basic Pathology Department at the Federal University of Paraná, Brazil, and present a databank of taxonomic and collection information for each sample. Culicids were collected using different methodologies in 18 municipalities in Paraná state, between 1967 and 1999. There are 5,739 catalogued specimens, of which 4,703 (81.94%) are identified at species level, with a diversity of 100 species. Of these, 18 are new recorded samples for Paraná, and three are new for Brazil. This collection is named the Ana Leuch Lozovei Entomological Collection in honor of the 30 years Prof Lovozei dedicated to culicid study in Paraná. The collection comprises insect vectors or potential vectors, of agents causing human diseases.

Oil palm expansion increases the vectorial capacity of dengue vectors in Malaysian Borneo

Changes in land-use and the associated shifts in environmental conditions can have large effects on the transmission and emergence of mosquito-borne disease. Mosquito-borne disease are particularly sensitive to these changes because mosquito growth, reproduction, survival and susceptibility to infection are all thermally sensitive traits, and land use change dramatically alters local microclimate. Predicting disease transmission under environmental change is increasingly critical for targeting mosquito-borne disease control and for identifying hotspots of disease emergence. Mechanistic models offer a powerful tool for improving these predictions. However, these approaches are limited by the quality and scale of temperature data and the thermal response curves that underlie predictions. Here, we used fine-scale temperature monitoring and a combination of empirical, laboratory and temperature-dependent estimates to estimate the vectorial capacity of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes across a tropical forest–oil palm plantation conversion gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We found that fine-scale differences in temperature between logged forest and oil palm plantation sites were not sufficient to produce differences in temperature-dependent demographic trait estimates using published thermal performance curves. However, when measured under field conditions a key parameter, adult abundance, differed significantly between land-use types, resulting in estimates of vectorial capacity that were 1.5 times higher in plantations than in forests. The prediction that oil palm plantations would support mosquito populations with higher vectorial capacity was robust to uncertainties in our adult survival estimates. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the effects of forest conversion to agriculture on mosquito-borne disease risk, and a framework for interpreting emergent relationships between land-use and disease transmission. As the burden of Ae. albopictus-vectored diseases, such as dengue virus, increases globally and rising demand for palm oil products drives continued expansion of plantations, these findings have important implications for conservation, land management and public health policy at the global scale.

Joint spatiotemporal modelling reveals seasonally dynamic patterns of Japanese encephalitis vector abundance across India

Predicting vector abundance and seasonality, key components of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) hazard, is essential to determine hotspots of MBD risk and target interventions effectively. Japanese encephalitis (JE), an important MBD, is a leading cause of viral encephalopathy in Asia with 100,000 cases estimated annually, but data on the principal vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus is lacking. We developed a Bayesian joint-likelihood model that combined information from available vector occurrence and abundance data to predict seasonal vector abundance for C. tritaeniorhynchus (a constituent of JE hazard) across India, as well as examining the environmental drivers of these patterns. Using data collated from 57 locations from 24 studies, we find distinct seasonal and spatial patterns of JE vector abundance influenced by climatic and land use factors. Lagged precipitation, temperature and land use intensity metrics for rice crop cultivation were the main drivers of vector abundance, independent of seasonal, or spatial variation. The inclusion of environmental factors and a seasonal term improved model prediction accuracy (mean absolute error [MAE] for random cross validation = 0.48) compared to a baseline model representative of static hazard predictions (MAE = 0.95), signalling the importance of seasonal environmental conditions in predicting JE vector abundance. Vector abundance varied widely across India with high abundance predicted in northern, north-eastern, eastern, and southern regions, although this ranged from seasonal (e.g., Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal) to perennial (e.g., Assam, Tamil Nadu). One-month lagged predicted vector abundance was a significant predictor of JE outbreaks (odds ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval: 1.52–4.08), highlighting the possible development of vector abundance as a proxy for JE hazard. We demonstrate a novel approach that leverages information from sparse vector surveillance data to predict seasonal vector abundance–a key component of JE hazard–over large spatial scales, providing decision-makers with better guidance for targeting vector surveillance and control efforts.

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalopathy in Asia with an estimated 100,000 annual cases and 25,000 deaths. However, insufficient data on the predominant mosquito vector Culex tritaeniorhynchus–a key component of JE hazard–precludes hazard estimation required to target public health interventions. Previous studies have provided limited estimates of JE hazard, often predicting geographic distributions of potential vector occurrence without accounting for vector abundance, seasonality, or uncertainty in predictions. This study details a novel approach to predict spatiotemporal patterns in JE vector abundance using a joint-likelihood modelling technique that leverages information from sparse vector surveillance data. We showed that patterns in JE vector abundance were driven by seasonality and environmental factors and so demonstrated the limitations of previously available static vector distribution maps in estimating the vector population component of JE hazard. One-month lagged vector abundance predictions showed a positive relationship with JE outbreaks, signalling the potential use of vector abundance as a proxy for JE hazard. While vector surveillance data are limited, joint-likelihood models offer a useful approach to inform vector abundance predictions. This study provides decision-makers with a more complete picture of the distribution of JE vector abundance and can be used to target vector surveillance and control efforts and enhance the allocation of resources.

Are Temperature Suitability and Socioeconomic Factors Reliable Predictors of Dengue Transmission in Brazil?

Dengue is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vector-borne diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic factors. Within developing countries, heterogeneities on socioeconomic factors are expected to create variable conditions for dengue transmission. However, the relative role of socioeconomic characteristics and their association with climate in determining dengue prevalence are poorly understood. Here we assembled essential socioeconomic factors over 5570 municipalities across Brazil and assessed their effect on dengue prevalence jointly with a previously predicted temperature suitability for transmission. Using a simultaneous autoregressive approach (SAR), we showed that the variability in the prevalence of dengue cases across Brazil is primarily explained by the combined effect of climate and socioeconomic factors. At some dengue seasons, the effect of temperature on transmission potential showed to be a more significant proxy of dengue cases. Still, socioeconomic factors explained the later increase in dengue prevalence over Brazil. In a heterogeneous country such as Brazil, recognizing the transmission drivers by vectors is a fundamental issue in effectively predicting and combating tropical diseases like dengue. Ultimately, it indicates that not considering socioeconomic factors in disease transmission predictions might compromise efficient surveillance strategies. Our study shows that sanitation, urbanization, and GDP are regional indicators that should be considered along with temperature suitability on dengue transmission, setting effective directions to mosquito-borne disease control.

Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.

Interfacing vector-borne disease dynamics with climate change: Implications for the attainment of SDGs in Masvingo city, Zimbabwe

This study used a mixed-methods research design to examine the sensitivity of vector-borne disease (VBD) patterns to the changes in rainfall and temperature trends. The research focused on malaria in Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe. The study interfaced the climate action, health and sustainable cities and communities with sustainable development goals (SDGs). Historical climate and epidemiological data were used to compute the correlations and determine the possible modifications of disease patterns. Clustered random and chain-referral sampling approaches were used to select study sites and respondents. Primary data were gathered through a questionnaire survey (n = 191), interviews and focus group discussions, with Mann-Kendal trend tests performed using XLSTAT 2020. The results show a positive correlation between malaria prevalence rates and temperature-related variables. A decline in precipitation-related variables, specifically mean monthly precipitation (MMP), was associated with an increase in malaria prevalence. These observations were confirmed by the views of the respondents, which show that climate change has a bearing on malaria spatial and temporal dynamics in Masvingo Province. The study concludes that climate change plays a contributory role in VBD dynamics, thereby impeding the attainment of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, especially SDG 3, which deals with health. The study recommends further research into appropriate adaptation mechanisms to increase the resilience of rural and urban communities against the negative transmutations associated with weather and climatic pressures.

Socio-Ecological Systems Analysis and Health System Readiness in Responding to Dengue Epidemics in Ilala and Kinondoni Districts, Tanzania

Introduction

Since 2010, Tanzania has been experiencing frequent outbreaks of dengue. The objectives of this study were to carry out a socio-ecological systems (SES) analysis to identify risk factors and interventions and assess the readiness of the district in the prevention and control of dengue.

Methods

The study utilized a cross-sectional purposive selection of key stakeholders responsible for disease surveillance and response in human and animal sectors in Ilala and Kinondoni districts in Tanzania. A SES framework was used to identify drivers and construct perceived thematic causal explanations of the dengue outbreaks in the study districts. A mapping exercise was carried out to analyse the performance of the disease surveillance system at district and facility levels. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to assess the districts’ readiness in the response to dengue outbreak.

Results

The two districts were characterized by both urban and peri-urban ecosystems, with a mixture of planned and unplanned settlements which support breeding and proliferation of Aedes mosquitoes. The results indicate inadequate levels of readiness in the management and control of dengue outbreaks, in terms of clinical competence, diagnostic capacities, surveillance system and control/prevention measures. Mosquito breeding sites, especially discarded automobile tyres, were reported to be scattered in the districts. Constraining factors in implementing disease surveillance included both intrapersonal and interpersonal factors, lack of case management guidelines, difficult language used in standard case definitions, inadequate laboratory capacity, lack of appropriate rapid response teams, inadequate knowledge on outbreak investigation and inadequate capacities in data management.

Conclusion

The two districts had limited readiness in the management and control of dengue, in terms of clinical competence, diagnostic capacities, surveillance system and prevention and control measures. These challenges require the immediate attention by the authorities, as they compromise the effectiveness of the national strategy for community health support.

Towards Sustainable Community-Based Systems for Infectious Disease and Disaster Response; Lessons from Local Initiatives in Four African Countries

This paper explores the role of decentralised community-based care systems in achieving sustainable healthcare in resource-poor areas. Based on case studies from Sierra Leone, Madagascar, Uganda and Ethiopia, the paper argues that a community-based system of healthcare is more effective in the prevention, early diagnosis, and primary care in response to the zoonotic and infectious diseases associated with extreme weather events as well as their direct health impacts. Community-based systems of care have a more holistic view of the determinants of health and can integrate responses to health challenges, social wellbeing, ecological and economic viability. The case studies profiled in this paper reveal the importance of expanding notions of health to encompass the whole environment (physical and social, across time and space) in which people live, including the explicit recognition of ecological interests and their interconnections with health. While much work still needs to be done in defining and measuring successful community responses to health and other crises, we identify two potentially core criteria: the inclusion and integration of local knowledge in response planning and actions, and the involvement of researchers and practitioners, e.g., community-embedded health workers and NGO staff, as trusted key interlocuters in brokering knowledge and devising sustainable community systems of care.

The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of flooding events. Although rainfall is highly correlated with mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) in humans, less research focuses on understanding the impact of flooding events on disease incidence. This lack of research presents a significant gap in climate change-driven disease forecasting.

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a scoping review to assess the strength of evidence regarding the potential relationship between flooding and MBD and to determine knowledge gaps.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched through 31 December 2020 and supplemented with review of citations in relevant publications. Studies on rainfall were included only if the operationalization allowed for distinction of unusually heavy rainfall events. Data were abstracted by disease (dengue, malaria, or other) and stratified by post-event timing of disease assessment. Studies that conducted statistical testing were summarized in detail.

RESULTS

From 3,008 initial results, we included 131 relevant studies (dengue n = 45 , malaria n = 61 , other MBD n = 49 ). Dengue studies indicated short-term (< 1  month ) decreases and subsequent (1-4 month) increases in incidence. Malaria studies indicated post-event incidence increases, but the results were mixed, and the temporal pattern was less clear. Statistical evidence was limited for other MBD, though findings suggest that human outbreaks of Murray Valley encephalitis, Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, Rift Valley fever, and Japanese encephalitis may follow flooding.

DISCUSSION

Flooding is generally associated with increased incidence of MBD, potentially following a brief decrease in incidence for some diseases. Methodological inconsistencies significantly limit direct comparison and generalizability of study results. Regions with established MBD and weather surveillance should be leveraged to conduct multisite research to a) standardize the quantification of relevant flooding, b) study nonlinear relationships between rainfall and disease, c) report outcomes at multiple lag periods, and d) investigate interacting factors that modify the likelihood and severity of outbreaks across different settings. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8887.

Vector-Borne Diseases and Associated Factors in the Rural Communities of Northwest Ethiopia: A Community-Based Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Human illnesses caused by parasites, viruses, and bacteria that are transmitted by vectors are called vector-borne diseases. Vector-borne diseases usually affect the poorest populations, particularly where there is a lack of access to adequate housing, safe drinking water, and sanitation. This community-based cross-sectional study was, conducted to assess the prevalence of self-reported vector-borne diseases and associated factors in the rural communities of northwest Ethiopia.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study design with structured observation was conducted among 1191 randomly selected rural households in northwest Ethiopia from April to June 2017. Data were collected by using a structured questionnaire; and observation checklist. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to identify variables associated with the prevalence of self-reported vector-borne diseases on the basis of adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) and P-values <.05.

RESULTS

In the current study, 216 (18.1%) of the rural households reported one or more vector-borne diseases. Scabies (9.5%) were the most reported vector-borne disease followed by Malaria (6.9%). The prevalence of self-reported vector-borne diseases was statistically associated with the head of the family (mother) (AOR = 0.13, 95% CI = 0.02-0.72), regular cleaning of the living environment (AOR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.36-0.74), poor cleanness of the living rooms (AOR = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.03-3.03), and moderate cleanness of the floor (AOR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.06-2.52).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of self-reported vector-borne diseases was high in the rural communities of northwest Ethiopia. The low prevalence was associated with family head; regular cleaning of living environment and cleanness of the floor. Designing and strengthening an intervention strategy for environmental sanitation, regular cleaning of living house, and keeping personal hygiene shall be considered.

The impact of climate change on neglected tropical diseases: a systematic review

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a diverse group of diseases that continue to affect >1 billion people, with these diseases disproportionately impacting vulnerable populations and territories. Climate change is having an increasing impact on public health in tropical and subtropical areas and across the world and can affect disease distribution and transmission in potentially diverse ways. Improving our understanding of how climate change influences NTDs can help identify populations at risk to include in future public health interventions. Articles were identified by searching electronic databases for reports of climate change and NTDs between 1 January 2010 and 1 March 2020. Climate change may influence the emergence and re-emergence of multiple NTDs, particularly those that involve a vector or intermediate host for transmission. Although specific predictions are conflicting depending on the geographic area, the type of NTD and associated vectors and hosts, it is anticipated that multiple NTDs will have changes in their transmission period and geographic range and will likely encroach on regions and populations that have been previously unaffected. There is a need for improved surveillance and monitoring to identify areas of NTD incursion and emergence and include these in future public health interventions.

Mosquito-Associated Viruses and Their Related Mosquitoes in West Africa

Mosquito-associated viruses (MAVs), including mosquito-specific viruses (MSVs) and mosquito-borne (arbo)viruses (MBVs), are an increasing public, veterinary, and global health concern, and West Africa is projected to be the next front for arboviral diseases. As in-depth knowledge of the ecologies of both western African MAVs and related mosquitoes is still limited, we review available and comprehensive data on their diversity, abundance, and distribution. Data on MAVs’ occurrence and related mosquitoes were extracted from peer-reviewed publications. Data on MSVs, and mosquito and vertebrate host ranges are sparse. However, more data are available on MBVs (i.e., dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, Zika, and Rift Valley fever viruses), detected in wild and domestic animals, and humans, with infections more concentrated in urban areas and areas affected by strong anthropogenic changes. Aedes aegypti, Culex quinquefasciatus, and Aedes albopictus are incriminated as key arbovirus vectors. These findings outline MAV, related mosquitoes, key knowledge gaps, and future research areas. Additionally, these data highlight the need to increase our understanding of MAVs and their impact on host mosquito ecology, to improve our knowledge of arbovirus transmission, and to develop specific strategies and capacities for arboviral disease surveillance, diagnostic, prevention, control, and outbreak responses in West Africa.

Cross-Predicting Essential Genes between Two Model Eukaryotic Species Using Machine Learning

Experimental studies of Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila melanogaster have contributed substantially to our understanding of molecular and cellular processes in metazoans at large. Since the publication of their genomes, functional genomic investigations have identified genes that are essential or non-essential for survival in each species. Recently, a range of features linked to gene essentiality have been inferred using a machine learning (ML)-based approach, allowing essentiality predictions within a species. Nevertheless, predictions between species are still elusive. Here, we undertake a comprehensive study using ML to discover and validate features of essential genes common to both C. elegans and D. melanogaster. We demonstrate that the cross-species prediction of gene essentiality is possible using a subset of features linked to nucleotide/protein sequences, protein orthology and subcellular localisation, single-cell RNA-seq, and histone methylation markers. Complementary analyses showed that essential genes are enriched for transcription and translation functions and are preferentially located away from heterochromatin regions of C. elegans and D. melanogaster chromosomes. The present work should enable the cross-prediction of essential genes between model and non-model metazoans.

Multidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review

Even though climate change involves much more than warming, it is the name given to a set of physical phenomena. It is a long-term change in weather patterns that characterises different regions of the world. The warming effect in the earth's atmosphere has dramatically increased through the influence of some heat-taping gases emitted by various human activities, especially fossil fuel burning. The more the input of such gases, the more will be the warming effect in the coming times. Global climate change is already visible in various parts of the larger ecosystems like forests, fisheries, biodiversity, and agriculture; however, it is now also influencing the supply of freshwater, human health, and well-being. This paper reviews climate change drivers, its global scenario, major global events, and assessing climate change impacts. The most daunting problem of economic and ecological risks, along with the threats to humanity, is also discussed. The paper further reviews the species' vulnerability to climate change and the heat waves and human migration vis-à-vis climate change. Climate change politics and coverage of climate change episodes in mass media is the special focus of this review that concludes with a few mitigation measures.

The effect of resource limitation on the temperature dependence of mosquito population fitness

Laboratory-derived temperature dependencies of life-history traits are increasingly being used to make mechanistic predictions for how climatic warming will affect vector-borne disease dynamics, partially by affecting abundance dynamics of the vector population. These temperature-trait relationships are typically estimated from juvenile populations reared on optimal resource supply, even though natural populations of vectors are expected to experience variation in resource supply, including intermittent resource limitation. Using laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a principal arbovirus vector, combined with stage-structured population modelling, we show that low-resource supply in the juvenile life stages significantly depresses the vector's maximal population growth rate across the entire temperature range (22-32°C) and causes it to peak at a lower temperature than at high-resource supply. This effect is primarily driven by an increase in juvenile mortality and development time, combined with a decrease in adult size with temperature at low-resource supply. Our study suggests that most projections of temperature-dependent vector abundance and disease transmission are likely to be biased because they are based on traits measured under optimal resource supply. Our results provide compelling evidence for future studies to consider resource supply when predicting the effects of climate and habitat change on vector-borne disease transmission, disease vectors and other arthropods.

Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city

This ecological study analyzed the temporal pattern of clinically diagnosed and laboratory confirmed dengue cases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil from 1996 to 2017. The study was divided into two analytical parts, the first of which evaluated the association between dengue incidence and host and climatic factors. The second part encompassed data from 2002 to 2017 and examined dengue incidence in relation to virus serotype and an intra-urban socioeconomic index. Over 22 years there were 469,171 cases and four epidemic peaks. There was an increase in the number, severity, and lethality of cases over the last 10 years of the study period. Biological and environmental factors appear to modulate the behavior of dengue in a large urban center.

Masting by beech trees predicts the risk of Lyme disease

BACKGROUND

The incidence of Lyme borreliosis and other tick-borne diseases is increasing in Europe and North America. There is currently much interest in identifying the ecological factors that determine the density of infected ticks as this variable determines the risk of Lyme borreliosis to vertebrate hosts, including humans. Lyme borreliosis is caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (s.l.) and in western Europe, the hard tick Ixodes ricinus is the most important vector.

METHODS

Over a 15-year period (2004-2018), we monitored the monthly abundance of I. ricinus ticks (nymphs and adults) and their B. burgdorferi s.l. infection status at four different elevations on a mountain in western Switzerland. We collected climate variables in the field and from nearby weather stations. We obtained data on beech tree seed production (masting) from the literature, as the abundance of Ixodes nymphs can increase dramatically 2 years after a masting event. We used generalized linear mixed effects models and AIC-based model selection to identify the ecological factors that influence inter-annual variation in the nymphal infection prevalence (NIP) and the density of infected nymphs (DIN).

RESULTS

We found that the NIP decreased by 78% over the study period. Inter-annual variation in the NIP was explained by the mean precipitation in the present year, and the duration that the DNA extraction was stored in the freezer prior to pathogen detection. The DIN decreased over the study period at all four elevation sites, and the decrease was significant at the top elevation. Inter-annual variation in the DIN was best explained by elevation site, year, beech tree masting index 2 years prior and the mean relative humidity in the present year. This is the first study in Europe to demonstrate that seed production by deciduous trees influences the density of nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi s.l. and hence the risk of Lyme borreliosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Public health officials in Europe should be aware that masting by deciduous trees is an important predictor of the risk of Lyme borreliosis.

Discovering environmental management opportunities for infectious disease control

Climate change and emerging drug resistance make the control of many infectious diseases increasingly challenging and diminish the exclusive reliance on drug treatment as sole solution to the problem. As disease transmission often depends on environmental conditions that can be modified, such modifications may become crucial to risk reduction if we can assess their potential benefit at policy-relevant scales. However, so far, the value of environmental management for this purpose has received little attention. Here, using the parasitic disease of fasciolosis in livestock in the UK as a case study, we demonstrate how mechanistic hydro-epidemiological modelling can be applied to understand disease risk drivers and the efficacy of environmental management across a large heterogeneous domain. Our results show how weather and other environmental characteristics interact to define disease transmission potential and reveal that environmental interventions such as risk avoidance management strategies can provide a valuable alternative or complement to current treatment-based control practice.

Opportunistic feeding behaviour and Leishmania infantum detection in Phlebotomus perniciosus females collected in the human leishmaniasis focus of Madrid, Spain (2012-2018)

Background

An outbreak of human leishmaniasis due to Leishmania infantum has been registered in an urban area of southwestern Madrid, Spain, since 2010. Entomological surveys carried out in the municipalities of Fuenlabrada, Leganés, Getafe and Humanes de Madrid showed that Phlebotomus perniciosus is the only potential vector. In this work, an intensive molecular surveillance was performed in P. perniciosus females captured in the region between 2012 and 2018.

Methodology/Principal findings

A total of 1805 P. perniciosus females were analyzed for Leishmania infection, and 1189 of them also for bloodmeal identification. Eleven different species of vertebrate were detected by amplification and subsequent sequencing of the 359 bp cytb fragment. The most prevalent blood source identified was hare (n = 553, 46.51%), followed by rabbit (n = 262, 21.95%). Less frequent were cat (n = 45, 3.80%), human (n = 34, 2.90%), pig (n = 14, 1.20%), horse (n = 11, 0.93%), sheep (n = 3, 0.25%), rhea (n = 3, 0.25%), partridge (n = 1, 0.09%) and chicken (n = 1, 0.09%). The distribution of the blood meal sources varied between the different locations. Regarding L. infantum detection, PCR amplification of a fragment of kDNA, cpb gene and ITS1 region showed 162 positive specimens (8.97%). The highest infection rate was found in the municipality of Leganés (15.17%).

Conclusions

The results of this molecular survey in P. perniciosus, the only leishmaniasis vector in the outbreak occurred in southwestern Madrid region, showed its opportunistic blood-feeding behaviour, high infection rates and the differences between the different points. This study was an essential part of the intensive surveillance plan in the area and the results obtained have supported the implementation of control measures in the outbreak.

Vector-borne diseases (VBD) comprise a pathogen-vector-reservoir relation, and control programs should take into account different factors involving this relationship. This study is focused on a leishmaniasis outbreak that has occurred in the southwestern Madrid region since 2010. An intensive molecular surveillance of the sand fly vector Phlebotomus perniciosus was carried out from 2012 to 2018 in 4 municipalities from the affected region: Fuenlabrada, Leganés, Getafe and Humanes de Madrid. The aim of this investigation was to discern how much the vector was infected and find out its blood-feeding habits in the different surveyed points. The results showed an important rate of infected sand flies and also that P. perniciosus presents an opportunistic blood-feeding behaviour, taking blood from many different hosts, depending on their availability and density. The results obtained in this surveillance helped the authorities to plan and implement more accurate and effective control measures in the area, reflecting the importance of applying molecular surveillance in VBD outbreaks.

Climate change impact assessment on Northeast China's grain production

The international community is paying more attention to climate change because a consensus has been reached that climate change has an adverse effect not only on the environment but also on agriculture. Therefore, in this study, present and future climate datasets (obtained from general circulation models) including atmospheric carbon concentration were used to assess the impact of climate change on grain production for an important base of China (Northeast). An empirical model has been developed using climate and other additional variables (effective irrigation area, fertilizer, and labor force) to assess the effect of climate change on grain production. The results revealed that maximum temperature is a key climate determinant in grain production of the study area. Atmospheric carbon concentration showed a significant impact on grain outputs in most of the cases. During the analysis, it was observed that precipitation displayed a declining trend while an effective irrigation area showed positive non-significant contribution to grain production. Analysis based on different representative concentration pathways exhibited that maximum temperature may contribute negatively to grain production in the future. Overall, the analysis showed that climate change has a significant contribution to grain production. In conclusion, the implications for future research and policymakers have been addressed. Particularly, the importance of considering regional differences in adaptation planning in agricultural regions was also considered.

Overall Prevalence and Distribution of Knockdown Resistance (kdr) Mutations in Aedes aegypti from Mandalay Region, Myanmar

Knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations in the voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) of mosquitoes confer resistance to insecticides. Although insecticide resistance has been suspected to be widespread in the natural population of Aedes aegypti in Myanmar, only limited information is currently available. The overall prevalence and distribution of kdr mutations was analyzed in Ae. aegypti from Mandalay areas, Myanmar. Sequence analysis of the VGSC in Ae. aegypti from Myanmar revealed amino acid mutations at 13 and 11 positions in domains II and III of VGSC, respectively. High frequencies of S989P (68.6%), V1016G (73.5%), and F1534C (40.1%) were found in domains II and III. T1520I was also found, but the frequency was low (8.1%). The frequency of S989P/V1016G was high (55.0%), and the frequencies of V1016G/F1534C and S989P/V1016G/F1534C were also high at 30.1% and 23.5%, respectively. Novel mutations in domain II (L963Q, M976I, V977A, M994T, L995F, V996M/A, D998N, V999A, N1013D, and F1020S) and domain III (K1514R, Y1523H, V1529A, F1534L, F1537S, V1546A, F1551S, G1581D, and K1584R) were also identified. These results collectively suggest that high frequencies of kdr mutations were identified in Myanmar Ae. aegypti, indicating a high level of insecticide resistance.

Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network

Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have as a trigger, a strong migratory component as has been evident in the recent Covid-19 pandemic. In this work we address the problem of migration of human populations and its effect on pathogen reinfections in the case of Dengue, using a Markov-chain susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) metapopulation model over a network. Our model postulates a general contact rate that represents a local measure of several factors: the population size of infected hosts that arrive at a given location as a function of total population size, the current incidence at neighboring locations, and the connectivity of the network where the disease spreads. This parameter can be interpreted as an indicator of outbreak risk at a given location. This parameter is tied to the fraction of individuals that move across boundaries (migration). To illustrate our model capabilities, we estimate from epidemic Dengue data in Mexico the dynamics of migration at a regional scale incorporating climate variability represented by an index based on precipitation data.

Assessing the Correlation between Malaria Case Mortality Rates and Access to Health Facilities in the Malaria Region of Vhembe District, South Africa

Background

Local villages in the Vhembe district of South Africa have experienced high malaria infection rates and a high variability of malaria case mortality rates over the past 20 years. This research project sets out to determine if specific socioeconomic factors have influence on the varying malaria case mortality rates.

Methods

The study used existing malaria records of all reported malaria cases in the Vhembe district between 1998 and 2017. The data set was sampled using maximum variation sampling combined with a stratified sampling approach to select the source locations with the highest reported variations in malaria case mortality. The number of medical facilities used, distances to the medical facilities, and proximity to significant water sources were subsequently spatially and statistically analysed for potential correlations between these factors and the malaria case fatality rates of the source locations.

Results

Within the period of study, a total of 57,974 malaria infections were reported from 850 source locations across the villages and neighbourhoods. The result of the sampling methods gave 30 source locations with highest reported variations in malaria case mortality. The statistical analysis indicated a significant negative correlation between the case mortality rates and the number of medical facilities used, the number of infections reported, and the maximum and mean distances travelled to the medical facilities used. In addition, the analysis indicated a positive correlation between the minimum distances travelled to the medical facilities used and the case mortality rates. The spatial analysis supported the majority of the findings from the statistical analysis. Proximity to significant water bodies was not found to have any significant impact on case mortality rates.

Conclusion

The results suggested that malaria patients from larger communities, those who had financial or other means to consult more advanced facilities, or those with a larger variety of services had a significantly lower risk of mortality. The findings of this study could assist societies and authorities in mitigating the negative effects of malaria infections on human life expectancies through improved socioeconomic development.