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Gonçalves F, Farooq H, Harfoot M, Pires MM, Villar N, Sales L, Carvalho C, Bello C, Emer C, Bovendorp RS, Mendes C, Beca G, Lautenschlager L, Souza Y, Pedrosa F, Paz C, Zipparro VB, Akkawi P, Bercê W, Farah F, Freitas AVL, Silveira LF, Olmos F, Geldmann J, Dalsgaard B, Galetti M. A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2321068121. [PMID: 38885390 PMCID: PMC11214083 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2321068121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2023] [Accepted: 05/05/2024] [Indexed: 06/20/2024] Open
Abstract
An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fernando Gonçalves
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Section for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
| | - Harith Farooq
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
- Faculty of Natural Sciences, Lúrio University, Pemba3200, Mozambique
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg41319, Sweden
| | - Mike Harfoot
- Vizzuality, Calle de Fuencarral, Madrid28010, Spain
| | - Mathias M. Pires
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Departamento de Biologia Animal, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo13083-862, Brazil
| | - Nacho Villar
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Wageningen, PB6708, The Netherlands
| | - Lilian Sales
- Department of Earth, Environmental and Geographic Sciences, Irving K. Barber, Faculty of Science, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, BCV1V 1V8, Canada
| | - Carolina Carvalho
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Instituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará66055-090, Brazil
| | - Carolina Bello
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zürich8092, Switzerland
| | - Carine Emer
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro22460-030, Brazil
| | - Ricardo S. Bovendorp
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Applied Ecology and Conservation Lab, Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilhéus, Bahia45662-900, Brazil
| | - Calebe Mendes
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Asean School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Gabrielle Beca
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Australian Wildlife Conservancy, Subiaco, WA6008, Australia
| | - Laís Lautenschlager
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL33124
| | - Yuri Souza
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL33124
| | - Felipe Pedrosa
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Claudia Paz
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Valesca B. Zipparro
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Paula Akkawi
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - William Bercê
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - Fabiano Farah
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
| | - André V. L. Freitas
- Departamento de Biologia Animal, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo13083-862, Brazil
- Museu de Diversidade Biológica, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo13083-862, Brazil
| | - Luís Fábio Silveira
- Museu de Zoologia de São Paulo, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo04263-000, Brazil
| | - Fábio Olmos
- Permian Global, LondonW1G 0LB, United Kingdom
| | - Jonas Geldmann
- Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
| | - Bo Dalsgaard
- Section for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen1350, Denmark
| | - Mauro Galetti
- Center for Research on Biodiversity Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Biodiversity, São Paulo State University, Rio Claro, Sao Paulo13506-900, Brazil
- Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University, Miami, FL33199
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Arnold KE, Laing G, McMahon BJ, Fanning S, Stekel DJ, Pahl O, Coyne L, Latham SM, McIntyre KM. The need for One Health systems-thinking approaches to understand multiscale dissemination of antimicrobial resistance. Lancet Planet Health 2024; 8:e124-e133. [PMID: 38331529 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(23)00278-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 10/29/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 02/10/2024]
Abstract
Although the effects of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are most obvious at clinical treatment failure, AMR evolution, transmission, and dispersal happen largely in environmental settings, for example within farms, waterways, livestock, and wildlife. We argue that systems-thinking, One Health approaches are crucial for tackling AMR, by understanding and predicting how anthropogenic activities interact within environmental subsystems, to drive AMR emergence and transmission. Innovative computational methods integrating big data streams (eg, from clinical, agricultural, and environmental monitoring) will accelerate our understanding of AMR, supporting decision making. There are challenges to accessing, integrating, synthesising, and interpreting such complex, multidimensional, heterogeneous datasets, including the lack of specific metrics to quantify anthropogenic AMR. Moreover, data confidentiality, geopolitical and cultural variation, surveillance gaps, and science funding cause biases, uncertainty, and gaps in AMR data and metadata. Combining systems-thinking with modelling will allow exploration, scaling-up, and extrapolation of existing data. This combination will provide vital understanding of the dynamic movement and transmission of AMR within and among environmental subsystems, and its effects across the greater system. Consequently, strategies for slowing down AMR dissemination can be modelled and compared for efficacy and cost-effectiveness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn E Arnold
- Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK.
| | | | - Barry J McMahon
- UCD School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Séamus Fanning
- UCD-Centre for Food Safety, School of Public Health, Physiotherapy & Sports Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Dov J Stekel
- School of Biosciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough, UK; Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Ole Pahl
- Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Management, School of Computing, Engineering and Built Environment, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK
| | - Lucy Coyne
- Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; National Office of Animal Health, Stevenage, UK
| | - Sophia M Latham
- Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - K Marie McIntyre
- Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK; Modelling, Evidence and Policy group, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK
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3
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Sze JS, Childs DZ, Carrasco LR, Fernández-Llamazares Á, Garnett ST, Edwards DP. Indigenous Peoples' Lands are critical for safeguarding vertebrate diversity across the tropics. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e16981. [PMID: 37888836 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Revised: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/28/2023]
Abstract
Indigenous Peoples are long-term custodians of their lands, but only recently are their contributions to conservation starting to be recognized in biodiversity policy and practice. Tropical forest loss and degradation are lower in Indigenous lands than unprotected areas, yet the role of Indigenous Peoples' Lands (IPL) in biodiversity conservation has not been properly assessed from regional to global scales. Using species distribution ranges of 11,872 tropical forest-dependent vertebrates to create area of habitat maps, we identified the overlap of these species ranges with IPL and then compared values inside and outside of IPL for species richness, extinction vulnerability, and range-size rarity. Of assessed vertebrates, at least 76.8% had range overlaps with IPL, on average overlapping ~25% of their ranges; at least 120 species were found only within IPL. Species richness within IPL was highest in South America, while IPL in Southeast Asia had highest extinction vulnerability, and IPL in Dominica and New Caledonia were important for range-size rarity. Most countries in the Americas had higher species richness within IPL than outside, whereas most countries in Asia had lower extinction vulnerability scores inside IPL and more countries in Africa and Asia had slightly higher range-size rarity in IPL. Our findings suggest that IPL provide critical support for tropical forest-dependent vertebrates, highlighting the need for greater inclusion of Indigenous Peoples in conservation target-setting and program implementation, and stronger upholding of Indigenous Peoples' rights in conservation policy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jocelyne S Sze
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Dylan Z Childs
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - L Roman Carrasco
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Álvaro Fernández-Llamazares
- Department of Animal Biology, Plant Biology and Ecology (BABVE-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
- Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA-UAB), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Stephen T Garnett
- Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, Northern Territory, Australia
| | - David P Edwards
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- Department of Plant Sciences and Conservation Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
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Braulik GT, Taylor BL, Minton G, Notarbartolo di Sciara G, Collins T, Rojas-Bracho L, Crespo EA, Ponnampalam LS, Double MC, Reeves RR. Red-list status and extinction risk of the world's whales, dolphins, and porpoises. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2023; 37:e14090. [PMID: 37246556 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14090] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/28/2022] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
To understand the scope and scale of the loss of biodiversity, tools are required that can be applied in a standardized manner to all species globally, spanning realms from land to the open ocean. We used data from the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List to provide a synthesis of the conservation status and extinction risk of cetaceans. One in 4 cetacean species (26% of 92 species) was threatened with extinction (i.e., critically endangered, endangered, or vulnerable) and 11% were near threatened. Ten percent of cetacean species were data deficient, and we predicted that 2-3 of these species may also be threatened. The proportion of threatened cetaceans has increased: 15% in 1991, 19% in 2008, and 26% in 2021. The assessed conservation status of 20% of species has worsened from 2008 to 2021, and only 3 moved into categories of lesser threat. Cetacean species with small geographic ranges were more likely to be listed as threatened than those with large ranges, and those that occur in freshwater (100% of species) and coastal (60% of species) habitats were under the greatest threat. Analysis of odontocete species distributions revealed a global hotspot of threatened small cetaceans in Southeast Asia, in an area encompassing the Coral Triangle and extending through nearshore waters of the Bay of Bengal, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea and into the coastal waters of China. Improved management of fisheries to limit overfishing and reduce bycatch is urgently needed to avoid extinctions or further declines, especially in coastal areas of Asia, Africa, and South America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gill T Braulik
- Sea Mammal Research Unit, Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Fife, UK
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- IUCN Marine Mammal Protected Areas Task Force
| | | | - Gianna Minton
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- IUCN Marine Mammal Protected Areas Task Force
- Megaptera Marine Conservation, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- IUCN Marine Mammal Protected Areas Task Force
- Tethys Research Institute, Milano, Italy
| | - Tim Collins
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- IUCN Marine Mammal Protected Areas Task Force
- Global Conservation, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx, New York, USA
| | - Lorenzo Rojas-Bracho
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- IUCN Marine Mammal Protected Areas Task Force
- Ocean Wise, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Enrique A Crespo
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- Laboratorio de Mamíferos Marinos, (CESIMAR, CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Argentina
| | - Louisa S Ponnampalam
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- The MareCet Research Organization, Subang Jaya, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Michael C Double
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- Australian Antarctic Division, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Kingston, Tasmania, Australia
| | - Randall R Reeves
- IUCN Species Survival Commission, Cetacean Specialist Group
- Committee of Scientific Advisers, Marine Mammal Commission, Bethesda, Maryland, USA
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Walkup J, Dang C, Mau RL, Hayer M, Schwartz E, Stone BW, Hofmockel KS, Koch BJ, Purcell AM, Pett-Ridge J, Wang C, Hungate BA, Morrissey EM. The predictive power of phylogeny on growth rates in soil bacterial communities. ISME COMMUNICATIONS 2023; 3:73. [PMID: 37454187 PMCID: PMC10349831 DOI: 10.1038/s43705-023-00281-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 06/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
Predicting ecosystem function is critical to assess and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Quantitative predictions of microbially mediated ecosystem processes are typically uninformed by microbial biodiversity. Yet new tools allow the measurement of taxon-specific traits within natural microbial communities. There is mounting evidence of a phylogenetic signal in these traits, which may support prediction and microbiome management frameworks. We investigated phylogeny-based trait prediction using bacterial growth rates from soil communities in Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems. Here we show that phylogeny predicts growth rates of soil bacteria, explaining an average of 31%, and up to 58%, of the variation within ecosystems. Despite limited overlap in community composition across these ecosystems, shared nodes in the phylogeny enabled ancestral trait reconstruction and cross-ecosystem predictions. Phylogenetic relationships could explain up to 38% (averaging 14%) of the variation in growth rates across the highly disparate ecosystems studied. Our results suggest that shared evolutionary history contributes to similarity in the relative growth rates of related bacteria in the wild, allowing phylogeny-based predictions to explain a substantial amount of the variation in taxon-specific functional traits, within and across ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeth Walkup
- Division of Plant and Soil Sciences, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, 26506, USA
| | - Chansotheary Dang
- Division of Plant and Soil Sciences, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, 26506, USA
| | - Rebecca L Mau
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (Ecoss), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Michaela Hayer
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (Ecoss), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Egbert Schwartz
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (Ecoss), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Bram W Stone
- Earth and Biological Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USA
| | - Kirsten S Hofmockel
- Earth and Biological Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USA
| | - Benjamin J Koch
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (Ecoss), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Alicia M Purcell
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (Ecoss), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, 79409, USA
| | - Jennifer Pett-Ridge
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Physical and Life Science Directorate, Livermore, CA, USA
- University of California Merced, Life & Environmental Sciences Department, Merced, CA, 95343, USA
| | - Chao Wang
- CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, LN, China
| | - Bruce A Hungate
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (Ecoss), Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Ember M Morrissey
- Division of Plant and Soil Sciences, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV, 26506, USA.
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Hughes A, Auliya M, Altherr S, Scheffers B, Janssen J, Nijman V, Shepherd CR, D'Cruze N, Sy E, Edwards DP. Determining the sustainability of legal wildlife trade. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 341:117987. [PMID: 37178541 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117987] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/06/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/18/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Exploitation of wildlife represents one of the greatest threats to species survival according to the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Whilst detrimental impacts of illegal trade are well recognised, legal trade is often equated to being sustainable despite the lack of evidence or data in the majority of cases. We review the sustainability of wildlife trade, the adequacy of tools, safeguards, and frameworks to understand and regulate trade, and identify gaps in data that undermine our ability to truly understand the sustainability of trade. We provide 183 examples showing unsustainable trade in a broad range of taxonomic groups. In most cases, neither illegal nor legal trade are supported by rigorous evidence of sustainability, with the lack of data on export levels and population monitoring data precluding true assessments of species or population-level impacts. We propose a more precautionary approach to wildlife trade and monitoring that requires those who profit from trade to provide proof of sustainability. We then identify four core areas that must be strengthened to achieve this goal: (1) rigorous data collection and analyses of populations; (2) linking trade quotas to IUCN and international accords; (3) improved databases and compliance of trade; and (4) enhanced understanding of trade bans, market forces, and species substitutions. Enacting these core areas in regulatory frameworks, including CITES, is essential to the continued survival of many threatened species. There are no winners from unsustainable collection and trade: without sustainable management not only will species or populations become extinct, but communities dependent upon these species will lose livelihoods.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alice Hughes
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Hong Kong, China.
| | - Mark Auliya
- Department of Herpetology, Leibniz Institute for the Analysis of Biodiversity Change, Zoological Research Museum Alexander Koenig, Bonn, Germany
| | | | - Brett Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida/IFAS, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Jordi Janssen
- Monitor Conservation Research Society, PO BOX 200, Big Lake Ranch, BC, V0L 1G0, Canada
| | - Vincent Nijman
- Oxford Wildlife Trade Research Group, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, OX3 0BP, UK.
| | - Chris R Shepherd
- Monitor Conservation Research Society, PO BOX 200, Big Lake Ranch, BC, V0L 1G0, Canada
| | - Neil D'Cruze
- The Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Tubney, UK; World Animal Protection, 222 Greys Inn Road, London, WC1X 8HB, UK
| | - Emerson Sy
- Philippine Center for Terrestrial & Aquatic Research, Manila, Philippines
| | - David P Edwards
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK.
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Gumbs R, Gray CL, Böhm M, Burfield IJ, Couchman OR, Faith DP, Forest F, Hoffmann M, Isaac NJB, Jetz W, Mace GM, Mooers AO, Safi K, Scott O, Steel M, Tucker CM, Pearse WD, Owen NR, Rosindell J. The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action. PLoS Biol 2023; 21:e3001991. [PMID: 36854036 PMCID: PMC9974121 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/02/2023] Open
Abstract
The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rikki Gumbs
- Conservation and Policy, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire, United Kingdom
- IUCN SSC Phylogenetic Diversity Task Force, London, United Kingdom
- Science and Solutions for a Changing Planet DTP, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Claudia L. Gray
- Conservation and Policy, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, United Kingdom
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, United Kingdom
- Global Center for Species Survival, Indianapolis Zoological Society, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Ian J. Burfield
- BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Olivia R. Couchman
- Conservation and Policy, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel P. Faith
- School of Philosophical and Historical Inquiry, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Félix Forest
- Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, United Kingdom
| | - Michael Hoffmann
- Conservation and Policy, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, United Kingdom
| | - Nick J. B. Isaac
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, United Kingdom
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Georgina M. Mace
- Department of Genetics, Evolution & Environment, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Arne O. Mooers
- Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Kamran Safi
- Max-Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Department of Migration, Radolfzell, Germany
- University of Konstanz, Department of Biology, Konstanz, Germany
| | - Oenone Scott
- School of Life Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester, United Kingdom
| | - Mike Steel
- Biomathematics Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Caroline M. Tucker
- Environment, Ecology and Energy Program, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - William D. Pearse
- Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire, United Kingdom
- Department of Biology and Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, United States of America
| | - Nisha R. Owen
- Conservation and Policy, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, United Kingdom
- IUCN SSC Phylogenetic Diversity Task Force, London, United Kingdom
- On the EDGE Conservation, London, United Kingdom
| | - James Rosindell
- Department of Life Sciences, Silwood Park Campus, Imperial College London, Ascot, Berkshire, United Kingdom
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8
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Ali JR, Blonder BW, Pigot AL, Tobias JA. Bird extinctions threaten to cause disproportionate reductions of functional diversity and uniqueness. Funct Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.14201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jarome R. Ali
- Department of Life Sciences Imperial College London Ascot UK
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey USA
| | - Benjamin W. Blonder
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California Berkeley California USA
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford Oxford UK
| | - Alex L. Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment University College London London UK
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9
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Fitzgerald DB, Freeman MC, Maloney KO, Young JA, Rosenberger AE, Kazyak DC, Smith DR. Multispecies approaches to status assessments in support of endangered species classifications. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12825] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Daniel B. Fitzgerald
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Kearneysville West Virginia USA
| | - Mary C. Freeman
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Athens Georgia USA
| | - Kelly O. Maloney
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Kearneysville West Virginia USA
| | - John A. Young
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Kearneysville West Virginia USA
| | - Amanda E. Rosenberger
- U.S. Geological Survey, Tennessee Cooperative Research Unit Tennessee Tech University Cookeville Tennessee USA
| | - David C. Kazyak
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Kearneysville West Virginia USA
| | - David R. Smith
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center Kearneysville West Virginia USA
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10
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Range-Wide Population Projections for Northern Red-Bellied Cooters (Pseudemys rubriventris). J HERPETOL 2022. [DOI: 10.1670/21-065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
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11
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Cox DTC, Gardner AS, Gaston KJ. Global and regional erosion of mammalian functional diversity across the diel cycle. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2022; 8:eabn6008. [PMID: 35960803 PMCID: PMC9374345 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn6008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Accepted: 06/28/2022] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Biodiversity is declining worldwide. When species are physically active (i.e., their diel niche) may influence their risk of becoming functionally extinct. It may also affect how species losses affect ecosystems. For 5033 terrestrial mammals, we predict future changes to diel global and local functional diversity through a gradient of progressive functional extinction scenarios of threatened species. Across scenarios, diurnal species were at greater risk of becoming functionally extinct than nocturnal, crepuscular, and cathemeral species, resulting in deep functional losses in global diurnal trait space. Redundancy (species with similar roles) will buffer global nocturnal functional diversity; however, across the land surface, losses will mostly occur among functionally dispersed species (species with distinct roles). Functional extinctions will constrict boundaries of cathemeral trait space as megaherbivores, and arboreal foragers are lost. Variation in the erosion of functional diversity across the daily cycle will likely profoundly affect the partitioning of ecosystem functioning between night and day.
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12
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More than half of data deficient species predicted to be threatened by extinction. Commun Biol 2022; 5:679. [PMID: 35927327 PMCID: PMC9352662 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-022-03638-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is essential for practical and theoretical efforts to protect biodiversity. However, species classified as “Data Deficient” (DD) regularly mislead practitioners due to their uncertain extinction risk. Here we present machine learning-derived probabilities of being threatened by extinction for 7699 DD species, comprising 17% of the entire IUCN spatial datasets. Our predictions suggest that DD species as a group may in fact be more threatened than data-sufficient species. We found that 85% of DD amphibians are likely to be threatened by extinction, as well as more than half of DD species in many other taxonomic groups, such as mammals and reptiles. Consequently, our predictions indicate that, amongst others, the conservation relevance of biodiversity hotspots in South America may be boosted by up to 20% if DD species were acknowledged. The predicted probabilities for DD species are highly variable across taxa and regions, implying current Red List-derived indices and priorities may be biased. Data Deficient species are more likely to be at extinction risk than previously thought across multiple taxonomic groups.
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13
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Caetano GHDO, Chapple DG, Grenyer R, Raz T, Rosenblatt J, Tingley R, Böhm M, Meiri S, Roll U. Automated assessment reveals that the extinction risk of reptiles is widely underestimated across space and phylogeny. PLoS Biol 2022; 20:e3001544. [PMID: 35617356 PMCID: PMC9135251 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/29/2021] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
The Red List of Threatened Species, published by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), is a crucial tool for conservation decision-making. However, despite substantial effort, numerous species remain unassessed or have insufficient data available to be assigned a Red List extinction risk category. Moreover, the Red Listing process is subject to various sources of uncertainty and bias. The development of robust automated assessment methods could serve as an efficient and highly useful tool to accelerate the assessment process and offer provisional assessments. Here, we aimed to (1) present a machine learning–based automated extinction risk assessment method that can be used on less known species; (2) offer provisional assessments for all reptiles—the only major tetrapod group without a comprehensive Red List assessment; and (3) evaluate potential effects of human decision biases on the outcome of assessments. We use the method presented here to assess 4,369 reptile species that are currently unassessed or classified as Data Deficient by the IUCN. The models used in our predictions were 90% accurate in classifying species as threatened/nonthreatened, and 84% accurate in predicting specific extinction risk categories. Unassessed and Data Deficient reptiles were considerably more likely to be threatened than assessed species, adding to mounting evidence that these species warrant more conservation attention. The overall proportion of threatened species greatly increased when we included our provisional assessments. Assessor identities strongly affected prediction outcomes, suggesting that assessor effects need to be carefully considered in extinction risk assessments. Regions and taxa we identified as likely to be more threatened should be given increased attention in new assessments and conservation planning. Lastly, the method we present here can be easily implemented to help bridge the assessment gap for other less known taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriel Henrique de Oliveira Caetano
- Jacob Blaustein Center for Scientific Cooperation, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
| | - David G. Chapple
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Richard Grenyer
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Tal Raz
- School of Zoology and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | | | - Reid Tingley
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom
- Global Center for Species Survival, Indianapolis Zoological Society, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Shai Meiri
- School of Zoology and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Uri Roll
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, Israel
- * E-mail:
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14
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Droghini A, Christie KS, Kelty RR, Schuette PA, Gotthardt T. Conservation status, threats, and information needs of small mammals in Alaska. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12671] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Amanda Droghini
- Alaska Center for Conservation Science University of Alaska Anchorage Anchorage Alaska USA
| | - Katherine S. Christie
- Threatened, Endangered, and Diversity Program Alaska Department of Fish and Game Anchorage Alaska USA
| | - Rachel R. Kelty
- Alaska Center for Conservation Science University of Alaska Anchorage Anchorage Alaska USA
| | - Paul A. Schuette
- Alaska Center for Conservation Science University of Alaska Anchorage Anchorage Alaska USA
- Marine Mammals Management US Fish and Wildlife Service Anchorage Alaska USA
| | - Tracey Gotthardt
- Threatened, Endangered, and Diversity Program Alaska Department of Fish and Game Anchorage Alaska USA
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15
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Weeks BC, Naeem S, Lasky JR, Tobias JA. Diversity and extinction risk are inversely related at a global scale. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:697-707. [PMID: 35199919 PMCID: PMC9303290 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13860] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2021] [Revised: 03/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Increases in biodiversity often lead to greater, and less variable, levels of ecosystem functioning. However, whether species are less likely to go extinct in more diverse ecosystems is unclear. We use comprehensive estimates of avian taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional diversity to characterise the global relationship between multiple dimensions of diversity and extinction risk in birds, focusing on contemporary threat status and latent extinction risk. We find that more diverse assemblages have lower mean IUCN threat status despite being composed of species with attributes that make them more vulnerable to extinction, such as large body size or small range size. Indeed, the reduction in current threat status associated with greater diversity far outweighs the increased risk associated with the accumulation of extinction‐prone species in more diverse assemblages. Our results suggest that high diversity reduces extinction risk, and that species conservation targets may therefore best be achieved by maintaining high levels of overall biodiversity in natural ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian C Weeks
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Shahid Naeem
- Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Jesse R Lasky
- Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
| | - Joseph A Tobias
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, UK
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16
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Mixed protection of threatened species traded under CITES. Curr Biol 2022; 32:999-1009.e9. [PMID: 35090593 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2022.01.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Revised: 11/05/2021] [Accepted: 01/05/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Abstract
The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) regulates international legal trade to prevent the detrimental harvest of wildlife. We assess the volumes of threatened and non-threatened bird, mammal, amphibian, and reptile species in the CITES-managed trade and how this trade responded to category changes of species in the IUCN Red List between 2000 and 2018. In this period, over a thousand wild-sourced vertebrate species were commercially traded. Species of least conservation concern had the highest yearly trade volumes (excluding birds), whereas species in most Red List categories showed an overall decrease in trade reoccurrence and volume through time, with most species unlikely to reoccur in recent trade. Charismatic species with populations split-listed between Appendices I and II were traded in substantially lower yearly volumes when sourced from the more-threatened Appendix I populations. Species trade volumes did not systematically respond to changes in the Red List category, with 31.0% of species disappearing from trade before changing category and the majority of species revealing no difference in trade volumes from pre- to post-change. Just 2.7% (12/432) of species volumes declined and 2.1% (9/432) of volumes increased after a category change. Our findings highlight that non-threatened species dominate trade but reveal small numbers of highly threatened species in trade and a disconnect between species trade volumes and changing extinction risk. We highlight potential drawbacks in the current regulation of trade in listed species and urgently call for open and accessible assessments-non-detriment findings-robustly evidencing the sustainable use of threatened and non-threatened species alike.
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17
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Abstract
The fossil record is the best evidence of the characteristics of extinct species, but only a narrow range of traits fossilize or survive the fossilization process. Lacking fossil or other evidence about the past, ancestral states can be reconstructed. Three pieces of information are combined when reconstructing ancestral states: extant or known trait values (data); the evolutionary history, linking the species of interest (phylogeny); and the evolutionary model of trait change. These reconstructed ancestral states can be interpreted as our best guess as to the route evolution took, given the distribution of the trait across species, the relationships among them, and our model of evolution. Because the information we use to reconstruct the past is often not known without error, uncertainty about their true values should be accounted for when reconstructing ancestral states. In this chapter we describe how ancestral states can be reconstructed using a Bayesian framework implemented in the software BayesTraits to account for uncertainty in the phylogenetic tree and the model of evolution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew Meade
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK.
| | - Mark Pagel
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK
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18
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Herrera JP, Moody J, Nunn CL. Predictions of primate-parasite coextinction. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2021; 376:20200355. [PMID: 34538137 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Future biodiversity loss threatens the integrity of complex ecological associations, including among hosts and parasites. Almost half of primate species are threatened with extinction, and the loss of threatened hosts could negatively impact parasite associations and ecosystem functions. If endangered hosts are highly connected in host-parasite networks, then future host extinctions will also drive parasite extinctions, destabilizing ecological networks. If threatened hosts are not highly connected, however, then network structure should not be greatly affected by the loss of threatened hosts. Networks with high connectance, modularity, nestedness and robustness are more resilient to perturbations such as the loss of interactions than sparse, nonmodular and non-nested networks. We analysed the interaction network involving 213 primates and 763 parasites and removed threatened primates (114 species) to simulate the effects of extinction. Our analyses revealed that connections to 23% of primate parasites (176 species) may be lost if threatened primates go extinct. In addition, measures of network structure were affected, but in varying ways because threatened hosts have fewer parasite interactions than non-threatened hosts. These results reveal that host extinctions will perturb the host-parasite network and potentially lead to secondary extinctions of parasites. The ecological consequences of these extinctions remain unclear. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.
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Affiliation(s)
- James P Herrera
- Duke Lemur Center SAVA Conservation, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - James Moody
- Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Charles L Nunn
- Department of Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.,Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
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19
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Beca G, Valentine LE, Galetti M, Hobbs RJ. Ecosystem roles and conservation status of bioturbator mammals. Mamm Rev 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/mam.12269] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Gabrielle Beca
- School of Biological Sciences University of Western Australia Crawley WA6009Australia
| | - Leonie E. Valentine
- School of Biological Sciences University of Western Australia Crawley WA6009Australia
| | - Mauro Galetti
- Department of Biology University of Miami Coral Gables FL33146USA
- Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Estadual Paulista Rio Claro SP13506‐900Brazil
| | - Richard J. Hobbs
- School of Biological Sciences University of Western Australia Crawley WA6009Australia
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20
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Miles DB. Can Morphology Predict the Conservation Status of Iguanian Lizards? Integr Comp Biol 2021; 60:535-548. [PMID: 32559284 DOI: 10.1093/icb/icaa074] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The integrity of regional and local biological diversity is under siege as a result of multiple anthropogenic threats. The conversion of habitats, such as rain forests, into agricultural ecosystems, reduces the area available to support species populations. Rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns lead to additional challenges for species. The ability of conservation biologists to ascertain the threats to a species requires data on changes in distribution, abundance, life history, and ecology. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) uses these data to appraise the extinction risk for a species. However, many species remain data deficient (DD) or unassessed. Here, I use 14 morphological traits related to locomotor function, habitat, and feeding to predict the threat status of over 400 species of lizards in the infraorder Iguania. Morphological traits are an ideal proxy for making inferences about a species' risk of extinction. Patterns of morphological covariation have a known association with habitat use, foraging behavior, and physiological performance across multiple taxa. Results from phylogenetic general linear models revealed that limb lengths as well as head characters predicted extinction risk. In addition, I used an artificial neural network (ANN) technique to generate a classification function based on the morphological traits of species with an assigned IUCN threat status. The network approach identified eight morphological traits as predictors of extinction risk, which included head and limb characters. The best supported model had a classification accuracy of 87.4%. Moreover, the ANN model predicted >18% of DD/not assessed species were at risk of extinction. The predicted assessments were supported by other sources of threat status, for example, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species appendices. Because of the functional link between morphology, performance, and ecology, an ecomorphological approach may be a useful tool for rapid assessment of DD or poorly known species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Donald B Miles
- Department of Biological Sciences, Ohio Center for Ecology and Evolutionary Studies, Ohio University, Athens, OH 45701, USA
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21
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Zhong (钟雨茜) Y, Chen (陈传武) C, Wang (王彦平) Y. Biological and extrinsic correlates of extinction risk in Chinese lizards. Curr Zool 2021; 68:285-293. [PMID: 35592347 PMCID: PMC9113272 DOI: 10.1093/cz/zoab040] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Accepted: 05/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
China is a country with one of the most species-rich reptile faunas in the world. However, nearly a quarter of Chinese lizard species assessed by the China Biodiversity Red List are threatened. Nevertheless, to date, no study has explicitly examined the pattern and processes of extinction and threat in Chinese lizards. In this study, we conducted the first comparative phylogenetic analysis of extinction risk in Chinese lizards. We addressed the following 3 questions: (1) What is the pattern of extinction and threat in Chinese lizards? (2) Which species traits and extrinsic factors are related to their extinction risk? (3) How can we protect Chinese lizards based on our results? We collected data on 10 species traits (body size [BS], clutch size, geographic range size, activity time, reproductive mode, habitat specialization [HS], habitat use, leg development, maximum elevation, and elevation range) and 7 extrinsic factors (mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature, mean annual solar insolation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), human footprint, human population density, and human exploitation). After phylogenetic correction, these variables were used separately and in combination to assess their associations with extinction risk. We found that Chinese lizards with a small geographic range, large BS, high HS, and living in high MAP areas were vulnerable to extinction. Conservation priority should thus be given to species with the above extinction-prone traits so as to effectively protect Chinese lizards. Preventing future habitat destruction should also be a primary focus of management efforts because species with small range size and high HS are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxi Zhong (钟雨茜)
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Chuanwu Chen (陈传武)
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China
| | - Yanping Wang (王彦平)
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Biodiversity and Biotechnology, College of Life Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, 210023, China
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22
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Horswill C, Manica A, Daunt F, Newell M, Wanless S, Wood M, Matthiopoulos J. Improving assessments of data‐limited populations using life‐history theory. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13863] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Cat Horswill
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health & Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
- ZSL Institute of Zoology London UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment University College London London UK
| | - Andrea Manica
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
| | | | - Mark Newell
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Penicuik UK
| | | | - Matthew Wood
- School of Natural and Social Sciences University of Gloucestershire Cheltenham UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health & Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
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23
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Impacts of wildlife trade on terrestrial biodiversity. Nat Ecol Evol 2021; 5:540-548. [PMID: 33589802 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-021-01399-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2020] [Accepted: 01/20/2021] [Indexed: 01/30/2023]
Abstract
The wildlife trade is worth billions of dollars annually and affects most major taxonomic groups. Despite this, a global understanding of the trade's impacts on species populations is lacking. We performed a quantitative meta-analysis of the wildlife trade that synthesized 506 species-level effect sizes from 31 studies, estimating trade-driven declines in mammals (452 effect sizes), birds (36) and reptiles (18). Overall, species declined in abundance by 62% (95% confidence interval (CI), 20 to 82%) where trade occurs. Reductions involving national or international trade were greatest, driving declines of 76% (95% CI, 36 to 91%) and 66% (95% CI, 12 to 87%), respectively. The impacts of trade were pervasive, requiring over 102 hours of travel time from settlements for trade to have no mean effect. Current protective measures fail species, with significant declines even where the harvesting for trade occurs in protected areas. Population declines tracked species threat status, indicating heightened extirpation and extinction risk in traded species. Critically, for such a severe global threat to wildlife, our analysis unearthed a limited number of studies using treatment versus control comparisons, and no studies on amphibians, invertebrates, cacti or orchids. Improved management, tackling both unsustainable demand and trade reporting, must be a conservation priority to prevent rampant trade-induced declines.
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24
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Jardim L, Bini LM, Diniz-Filho JAF, Villalobos F. A Cautionary Note on Phylogenetic Signal Estimation from Imputed Databases. Evol Biol 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s11692-021-09534-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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25
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Cardillo M. Clarifying the relationship between body size and extinction risk in amphibians by complete mapping of model space. Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20203011. [PMID: 33529561 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2020.3011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
In vertebrates, large body size is often a key diagnostic feature of species threatened with extinction. However, in amphibians the link between body size and extinction risk is highly uncertain, with previous studies suggesting positive, negative, u-shaped, or no relationship. Part of the reason for this uncertainty is 'researcher degrees of freedom': the subjectivity and selectivity in choices associated with specifying and fitting models. Here, I clarify the size-threat association in amphibians using Specification Curve Analysis, an analytical approach from the social sciences that attempts to minimize this problem by complete mapping of model space. I find strong support for prevailing negative associations between body size and threat status, the opposite of patterns typical in other vertebrates. This pattern is largely explained by smaller species having smaller geographic ranges, but smaller amphibian species also appear to lack some of the life-history advantages (e.g. higher reproductive output) that are often assumed to 'protect' small species in other taxa. These results highlight the need for a renewed conservation focus on the smallest species of the world's most threatened class of vertebrates, as aquatic habitats become increasingly degraded by human activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel Cardillo
- Macroevolution & Macroecology Group, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia
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26
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Webb TJ, Vanhoorne B. Linking dimensions of data on global marine animal diversity. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 375:20190445. [PMID: 33131434 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0445] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent decades have seen an explosion in the amount of data available on all aspects of biodiversity, which has led to data-driven approaches to understand how and why diversity varies in time and space. Global repositories facilitate access to various classes of species-level data including biogeography, genetics and conservation status, which are in turn required to study different dimensions of diversity. Ensuring that these different data sources are interoperable is a challenge as we aim to create synthetic data products to monitor the state of the world's biodiversity. One way to approach this is to link data of different classes, and to inventory the availability of data across multiple sources. Here, we use a comprehensive list of more than 200 000 marine animal species, and quantify the availability of data on geographical occurrences, genetic sequences, conservation assessments and DNA barcodes across all phyla and broad functional groups. This reveals a very uneven picture: 44% of species are represented by no record other than their taxonomy, but some species are rich in data. Although these data-rich species are concentrated into a few taxonomic and functional groups, especially vertebrates, data are spread widely across marine animals, with members of all 32 phyla represented in at least one database. By highlighting gaps in current knowledge, our census of marine diversity data helps to prioritize future data collection activities, as well as emphasizing the importance of ongoing sustained observations and archiving of existing data into global repositories. This article is part of the theme issue 'Integrative research perspectives on marine conservation'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas J Webb
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
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27
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Wang MMH, Carrasco LR, Edwards DP. Reconciling Rubber Expansion with Biodiversity Conservation. Curr Biol 2020; 30:3825-3832.e4. [PMID: 32763172 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2020.07.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2020] [Revised: 06/09/2020] [Accepted: 07/02/2020] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Abstract
Over five million hectares of tropical forest were cleared across mainland Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa for rubber plantations between 2003 and 2017 [1, 2]. Millions of hectares of further clearance are predicted as rubber demand rises, which will have major consequences for biodiversity [3]. A key question is how to reconcile rubber expansion with biodiversity conservation. We assessed the feasibility of simultaneously meeting global future demand for rubber with conservation of extinction-threatened amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles. We compared the spatial congruence of rubber bioclimatic suitability with extinction vulnerability [4] in Africa, Asia, and New Guinea, where large-scale rubber cultivation is viable, and simulated rubber expansion under different scenarios. We found no "win-win" areas with highest rubber suitability and lowest extinction vulnerability. Projected rubber demand could be met by allowing expansion primarily in New Guinea and African Guinea. However, New Guinea has high ecosystem intactness and both regions are rich in endemics. Scenarios suggest converting only areas suitable for cultivation would cause the largest biodiversity losses, including endangered species, whereas prioritizing conservation would result in only the conversion of highly unsuitable land. Compromise scenarios that balance production with conservation could cut biodiversity losses by two-thirds, protecting most endangered species while maintaining high rubber suitability. Development of high-yielding hardy clones expands the amount of win-win areas, as well as suitable areas with high extinction risk. These trade-offs reveal that clonal research and development, strategic corporate and government land-use policies, and rigorous impact assessments are needed to prevent severe biodiversity losses from rubber development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria M H Wang
- Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures and Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S10 2TN, UK.
| | - L Roman Carrasco
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Block S3 no. 05-0, 16 Science Drive 4, Singapore 117558, Singapore
| | - David P Edwards
- Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures and Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S10 2TN, UK.
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Nori J, Loyola R, Villalobos F. Priority areas for conservation of and research focused on terrestrial vertebrates. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2020; 34:1281-1291. [PMID: 32009235 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2019] [Revised: 01/07/2020] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Effective conservation policies require comprehensive knowledge of biodiversity. However, knowledge shortfalls still remain, hindering possibilities to improve decision making and built such policies. During the last 2 decades, conservationists have made great efforts to allocate resources as efficiently as possible but have rarely considered the idea that if research investments are also strategically allocated, it would likely fill knowledge gaps while simultaneously improving conservation actions. Therefore, prioritizing areas where both conservation and research actions could be conducted becomes a critical endeavor that can further maximize return on investment. We used Zonation, a conservation planning tool and geographical distributions of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles to suggest and compare priority areas for conservation and research of terrestrial vertebrates worldwide. We also evaluated the degree of human disturbance in both types of priority areas by describing the value of the human footprint index within such areas. The spatial concordance between priority conservation and research areas was low: 0.36% of the world's land area. In these areas, we found it would be possible to protect almost half of the currently threatened species and to gather information on nearly 42% of data-deficient (DD) species. We also found that 6199 protected areas worldwide are located in such places, although only 35% of them have strict conservation purposes. Areas of consensus between conservation and research areas represent an opportunity for simultaneously conserving and acquiring knowledge of threatened and DD species of vertebrates. Although the picture is not the most encouraging, joint conservation and research efforts are possible and should be fostered to save vertebrate species from our own ignorance and extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Nori
- Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas, y Naturales, Centro de Zoología Aplicada, Rondeau 798, Córdoba, 5000, Argentina
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (IDEA), Av Vélez Sarsfield 299, Córdoba, 5000, Argentina
| | - Rafael Loyola
- Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil
- Fundação Brasileira para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Fabricio Villalobos
- Laboratorio de Macroecología Evolutiva, Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico
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29
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Patterns of sexual dimorphism in flight agility in territorial and non-territorial Odonata. J ETHOL 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s10164-020-00670-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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30
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Colston TJ, Kulkarni P, Jetz W, Pyron RA. Phylogenetic and spatial distribution of evolutionary diversification, isolation, and threat in turtles and crocodilians (non-avian archosauromorphs). BMC Evol Biol 2020; 20:81. [PMID: 32650718 PMCID: PMC7350713 DOI: 10.1186/s12862-020-01642-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2019] [Accepted: 06/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The origin of turtles and crocodiles and their easily recognized body forms dates to the Triassic and Jurassic. Despite their long-term success, extant species diversity is low, and endangerment is extremely high compared to other terrestrial vertebrate groups, with ~ 65% of ~ 25 crocodilian and ~ 360 turtle species now threatened by exploitation and habitat loss. Here, we combine available molecular and morphological evidence with statistical and machine learning algorithms to present a phylogenetically informed, comprehensive assessment of diversification, threat status, and evolutionary distinctiveness of all extant species. Results In contrast to other terrestrial vertebrates and their own diversity in the fossil record, the recent extant lineages of turtles and crocodilians have not experienced any global mass extinctions or lineage-wide shifts in diversification rate or body-size evolution over time. We predict threat statuses for 114 as-yet unassessed or data-deficient species and identify a concentration of threatened turtles and crocodilians in South and Southeast Asia, western Africa, and the eastern Amazon. We find that unlike other terrestrial vertebrate groups, extinction risk increases with evolutionary distinctiveness: a disproportionate amount of phylogenetic diversity is concentrated in evolutionarily isolated, at-risk taxa, particularly those with small geographic ranges. Our findings highlight the important role of geographic determinants of extinction risk, particularly those resulting from anthropogenic habitat-disturbance, which affect species across body sizes and ecologies. Conclusions Extant turtles and crocodilians maintain unique, conserved morphologies which make them globally recognizable. Many species are threatened due to exploitation and global change. We use taxonomically complete, dated molecular phylogenies and various approaches to produce a comprehensive assessment of threat status and evolutionary distinctiveness of both groups. Neither group exhibits significant overall shifts in diversification rate or body-size evolution, or any signature of global mass extinctions in recent, extant lineages. However, the most evolutionarily distinct species tend to be the most threatened, and species richness and extinction risk are centered in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance, particularly South and Southeast Asia. Range size is the strongest predictor of threat, and a disproportionate amount of evolutionary diversity is at risk of imminent extinction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy J Colston
- Department of Biological Sciences, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA. .,Present address: Department of Biological Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL, 32304, USA.
| | | | - Walter Jetz
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA.,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
| | - R Alexander Pyron
- Department of Biological Sciences, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA
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González-Del-Pliego P, Freckleton RP, Edwards DP, Koo MS, Scheffers BR, Pyron RA, Jetz W. Phylogenetic and Trait-Based Prediction of Extinction Risk for Data-Deficient Amphibians. Curr Biol 2020; 29:1557-1563.e3. [PMID: 31063716 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2019.04.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 77] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2018] [Revised: 02/14/2019] [Accepted: 04/02/2019] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Amphibians are among the most highly threatened lineages, with at least 2,000 species estimated to be in danger of extinction [1, 2]. Alarmingly, another ∼2,200 species (∼25% of all ∼7,900 known species) are data deficient or not evaluated (hereinafter termed data deficient) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) [1]. Without an estimate of their status, data-deficient species are usually overlooked in conservation planning and resource allocation [3]. Amphibians have the highest proportion of data-deficient species of any vertebrate group [1, 4], which highlights the need to estimate their threat status considering potentially imminent extinctions. We apply a trait-based spatio-phylogenetic statistical framework [5] to predict threat status for data-deficient species. Because ecological, geographical, and evolutionary attributes increase extinction risk [6, 7], we used geographic distribution data [1, 8], phylogenetically imputed ecological traits, and an amphibian phylogeny [9] to provide initial baseline predictions. We estimate that half of the ∼2,200 data-deficient species are threatened with extinction (vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered), primarily in the Neotropics and Southeast Asia. This increases the number of amphibian species estimated to be threatened with extinction by ∼50%. Of these, we predict that ∼500 species are endangered or critically endangered, and three may be extinct already. We highlight families that are most at risk and suggest where urgent conservation is needed to avert their loss. We show that some of the most vulnerable species may also be the most poorly known and offer an analytical framework for preliminary analysis of their threat status in the face of deficient empirical data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pamela González-Del-Pliego
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S102TN, UK; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06520, USA.
| | - Robert P Freckleton
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S102TN, UK
| | - David P Edwards
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield, South Yorkshire S102TN, UK
| | - Michelle S Koo
- Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, University of California, Berkeley, Valley Life Sciences Building, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
| | - Brett R Scheffers
- Department of Wildlife Ecology & Conservation, Newins-Ziegler Hall, University of Florida/IFAS, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - R Alexander Pyron
- Department of Biological Sciences, The George Washington University, 22(nd) Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, USA
| | - Walter Jetz
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06520, USA
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Dinnage R, Skeels A, Cardillo M. Spatiophylogenetic modelling of extinction risk reveals evolutionary distinctiveness and brief flowering period as threats in a hotspot plant genus. Proc Biol Sci 2020; 287:20192817. [PMID: 32370670 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.2817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Comparative models used to predict species threat status can help identify the diagnostic features of species at risk. Such models often combine variables measured at the species level with spatial variables, causing multiple statistical challenges, including phylogenetic and spatial non-independence. We present a novel Bayesian approach for modelling threat status that simultaneously deals with both forms of non-independence and estimates their relative contribution, and we apply the approach to modelling threat status in the Australian plant genus Hakea. We find that after phylogenetic and spatial effects are accounted for, species with greater evolutionary distinctiveness and a shorter annual flowering period are more likely to be threatened. The model allows us to combine information on evolutionary history, species biology and spatial data, calculate latent extinction risk (potential for non-threatened species to become threatened), estimate the most important drivers of risk for individual species and map spatial patterns in the effects of different predictors on extinction risk. This could be of value for proactive conservation decision-making based on the early identification of species and regions of potential conservation concern.
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Affiliation(s)
- Russell Dinnage
- Macroevolution and Macroecology Group, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia
| | - Alexander Skeels
- Macroevolution and Macroecology Group, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia
| | - Marcel Cardillo
- Macroevolution and Macroecology Group, Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia
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33
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Howard C, Flather CH, Stephens PA. A global assessment of the drivers of threatened terrestrial species richness. Nat Commun 2020; 11:993. [PMID: 32080191 PMCID: PMC7033199 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14771-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 01/28/2020] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
High numbers of threatened species might be expected to occur where overall species richness is also high; however, this explains only a proportion of the global variation in threatened species richness. Understanding why many areas have more or fewer threatened species than would be expected given their species richness, and whether that is consistent across taxa, is essential for identifying global conservation priorities. Here, we show that, after controlling for species richness, environmental factors, such as temperature and insularity, are typically more important than human impacts for explaining spatial variation in global threatened species richness. Human impacts, nevertheless, have an important role, with relationships varying between vertebrate groups and zoogeographic regions. Understanding this variation provides a framework for establishing global conservation priorities, identifying those regions where species are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of threatening human processes, and forecasting how threatened species might be distributed in a changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine Howard
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK.
| | - Curtis H Flather
- US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO, 80526, USA
| | - Philip A Stephens
- Conservation Ecology Group, Department of Biosciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
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34
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Lombal AJ, O'dwyer JE, Friesen V, Woehler EJ, Burridge CP. Identifying mechanisms of genetic differentiation among populations in vagile species: historical factors dominate genetic differentiation in seabirds. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2020; 95:625-651. [PMID: 32022401 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12580] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2019] [Revised: 12/23/2019] [Accepted: 01/08/2020] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Elucidating the factors underlying the origin and maintenance of genetic variation among populations is crucial for our understanding of their ecology and evolution, and also to help identify conservation priorities. While intrinsic movement has been hypothesized as the major determinant of population genetic structuring in abundant vagile species, growing evidence indicates that vagility does not always predict genetic differentiation. However, identifying the determinants of genetic structuring can be challenging, and these are largely unknown for most vagile species. Although, in principle, levels of gene flow can be inferred from neutral allele frequency divergence among populations, underlying assumptions may be unrealistic. Moreover, molecular studies have suggested that contemporary gene flow has often not overridden historical influences on population genetic structure, which indicates potential inadequacies of any interpretations that fail to consider the influence of history in shaping that structure. This exhaustive review of the theoretical and empirical literature investigates the determinants of population genetic differentiation using seabirds as a model system for vagile taxa. Seabirds provide a tractable group within which to identify the determinants of genetic differentiation, given their widespread distribution in marine habitats and an abundance of ecological and genetic studies conducted on this group. Herein we evaluate mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in 73 seabird species. Lack of mutation-drift equilibrium observed in 19% of species coincided with lower estimates of genetic differentiation, suggesting that dynamic demographic histories can often lead to erroneous interpretations of contemporary gene flow, even in vagile species. Presence of land across the species sampling range, or sampling of breeding colonies representing ice-free Pleistocene refuge zones, appear to be associated with genetic differentiation in Tropical and Southern Temperate species, respectively, indicating that long-term barriers and persistence of populations are important for their genetic structuring. Conversely, biotic factors commonly considered to influence population genetic structure, such as spatial segregation during foraging, were inconsistently associated with population genetic differentiation. In light of these results, we recommend that genetic studies should consider potential historical events when identifying determinants of genetic differentiation among populations to avoid overestimating the role of contemporary factors, even for highly vagile taxa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anicee J Lombal
- Discipline of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - James E O'dwyer
- Discipline of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
| | - Vicki Friesen
- Department of Biology, Queen's University, 99 University Avenue, Kingston, OL, K7L 3N6, Canada
| | - Eric J Woehler
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Hobart, TAS, 7004, Australia
| | - Christopher P Burridge
- Discipline of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 55, Hobart, TAS, 7001, Australia
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35
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Whale counting in satellite and aerial images with deep learning. Sci Rep 2019; 9:14259. [PMID: 31582780 PMCID: PMC6776647 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-50795-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2019] [Accepted: 09/17/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Despite their interest and threat status, the number of whales in world’s oceans remains highly uncertain. Whales detection is normally carried out from costly sighting surveys, acoustic surveys or through high-resolution images. Since deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are achieving great performance in several computer vision tasks, here we propose a robust and generalizable CNN-based system for automatically detecting and counting whales in satellite and aerial images based on open data and tools. In particular, we designed a two-step whale counting approach, where the first CNN finds the input images with whale presence, and the second CNN locates and counts each whale in those images. A test of the system on Google Earth images in ten global whale-watching hotspots achieved a performance (F1-measure) of 81% in detecting and 94% in counting whales. Combining these two steps increased accuracy by 36% compared to a baseline detection model alone. Applying this cost-effective method worldwide could contribute to the assessment of whale populations to guide conservation actions. Free and global access to high-resolution imagery for conservation purposes would boost this process.
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36
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Scherz MD, Glaw F, Hutter CR, Bletz MC, Rakotoarison A, Köhler J, Vences M. Species complexes and the importance of Data Deficient classification in Red List assessments: The case of Hylobatrachus frogs. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0219437. [PMID: 31412043 PMCID: PMC6693689 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2019] [Accepted: 06/19/2019] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Taxonomy is the cornerstone of extinction risk assessments. Currently, the IUCN Red List treats species complexes either under a single overarching species name—resulting in an unhelpfully broad circumscription and underestimated threat assessment that does not apply to any one species lineage—or omits them altogether—resulting in the omission of species that should be assessed. We argue that taxonomic uncertainty alone, as in species complexes, should be grounds for assessment as Data Deficient (DD). Yet, use of the DD category is currently discouraged, resulting in assessments based on poor data quality and dismissal of the importance of taxonomic confidence in conservation. This policy may be leading to volatile and unwarranted assessments of hundreds of species across the world, and needs to be revised. To illustrate this point, we here present a partial taxonomic revision of torrent frogs from eastern Madagascar in the Mantidactylus subgenus Hylobatrachus. Two named species, Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) lugubris and M. (H.) cowanii, and several undescribed candidate species are recognised, but the application of the available names has been somewhat ambiguous. In a recent re-assessment of its conservation status, M. (H.) lugubris was assessed including all complex members except M. (H.) cowanii within its distribution, giving it a status of Least Concern and distribution over most of eastern Madagascar. After describing two of the unnamed lineages as Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) atsimo sp. nov. (from southeastern Madagascar) and Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) petakorona sp. nov. (from the Marojejy Massif in northeastern Madagascar), we show that Mantidactylus (Hylobatrachus) lugubris is restricted to the central east of Madagascar, highlighting the inaccuracy of its current Red List assessment. We propose to re-assess its status under a more restrictive definition that omits well-defined candidate species, thus representing the actual species to which its assessment refers, to the best of current knowledge. We recommend that for species complexes in general, (1) nominal lineages that can be confidently restricted should be assessed under the strict definition, (2) non-nominal species-level lineages and ambiguous names should be prioritised for taxonomic research, and (3) ambiguous names should be assessed as DD to highlight the deficiency in data on their taxonomic status, which is an impediment to their conservation. This would reduce ambiguity and underestimation of threats involved in assessing species complexes, and place the appropriate emphasis on the importance of taxonomy in anchoring conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark D. Scherz
- Zoologische Staatssammlung München (ZSM-SNSB), München, Germany
- Zoological Institute, Braunschweig University of Technology, Braunschweig, Germany
- * E-mail:
| | - Frank Glaw
- Zoologische Staatssammlung München (ZSM-SNSB), München, Germany
| | - Carl R. Hutter
- Biodiversity Institute and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States of America
| | - Molly C. Bletz
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | | | - Jörn Köhler
- Hessisches Landesmuseum Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
| | - Miguel Vences
- Zoological Institute, Braunschweig University of Technology, Braunschweig, Germany
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Tobias JA, Pigot AL. Integrating behaviour and ecology into global biodiversity conservation strategies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374:20190012. [PMID: 31352893 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Insights into animal behaviour play an increasingly central role in species-focused conservation practice. However, progress towards incorporating behaviour into regional or global conservation strategies has been more limited, not least because standardized datasets of behavioural traits are generally lacking at wider taxonomic or spatial scales. Here we make use of the recent expansion of global datasets for birds to assess the prospects for including behavioural traits in systematic conservation priority-setting and monitoring programmes. Using International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List classifications for more than 9500 bird species, we show that the incidence of threat can vary substantially across different behavioural categories, and that some types of behaviour-including particular foraging, mating and migration strategies-are significantly more threatened than others. The link between behavioural traits and extinction risk is partly driven by correlations with well-established geographical and ecological factors (e.g. range size, body mass, human population pressure), but our models also reveal that behaviour modifies the effect of these factors, helping to explain broad-scale patterns of extinction risk. Overall, these results suggest that a multi-species approach at the scale of communities, continents and ecosystems can be used to identify and monitor threatened behaviours, and to flag up cases of latent extinction risk, where threatened status may currently be underestimated. Our findings also highlight the importance of comprehensive standardized descriptive data for ecological and behavioural traits, and point the way towards deeper integration of behaviour into quantitative conservation assessments. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joseph A Tobias
- Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Alex L Pigot
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK
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Kubelka V, Šálek M, Tomkovich P, Végvári S, Freckleton RP, Székely T. Response to Comment on "Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds". Science 2019; 364:364/6445/eaaw9893. [PMID: 31196987 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw9893] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2019] [Accepted: 05/29/2019] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Bulla et al dispute our main conclusion that the global pattern of nest predation is disrupted in shorebirds. We disagree with Bulla et al's conclusions and contest the robustness of their outcomes. We reaffirm our results that provide clear evidence that nest predation has increased significantly in shorebirds, especially in the Arctic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vojtěch Kubelka
- Department of Evolutionary Zoology and Human Biology, University of Debrecen, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary. .,Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.,Department of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Miroslav Šálek
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, 165 21 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Pavel Tomkovich
- Zoological Museum, Moscow MV Lomonosov State University, Moscow 125009, Russia
| | - Sold Végvári
- Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Robert P Freckleton
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
| | - Tomás Székely
- Department of Evolutionary Zoology and Human Biology, University of Debrecen, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary. .,Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK.,State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol and College of Ecology and Evolution, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
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39
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Kubelka V, Šálek M, Tomkovich P, Végvári Z, Freckleton RP, Székely T. Global pattern of nest predation is disrupted by climate change in shorebirds. Science 2019; 362:680-683. [PMID: 30409881 DOI: 10.1126/science.aat8695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2018] [Accepted: 09/05/2018] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Ongoing climate change is thought to disrupt trophic relationships, with consequences for complex interspecific interactions, yet the effects of climate change on species interactions are poorly understood, and such effects have not been documented at a global scale. Using a single database of 38,191 nests from 237 populations, we found that shorebirds have experienced a worldwide increase in nest predation over the past 70 years. Historically, there existed a latitudinal gradient in nest predation, with the highest rates in the tropics; however, this pattern has been recently reversed in the Northern Hemisphere, most notably in the Arctic. This increased nest predation is consistent with climate-induced shifts in predator-prey relationships.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vojtěch Kubelka
- Department of Ecology, Charles University in Prague, Vinicna 7, 128 44, Prague, Czech Republic. .,Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
| | - Miroslav Šálek
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycka 129, 165 21, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Pavel Tomkovich
- Zoological Museum, Moscow MV Lomonosov State University, Bolshaya Nikitskaya Str 6, Moscow 125009, Russia
| | - Zsolt Végvári
- Department of Conservation Zoology, University of Debrecen, Egyetem tér 1, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary.,Hortobágy National Park Directorate, Sumen u. 2, H-4024 Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Robert P Freckleton
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Alfred Denny Building, Western Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
| | - Tamás Székely
- Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK. .,Department of Evolutionary Zoology and Human Biology, University of Debrecen, Egyetem tér 1, H-4032, Debrecen, Hungary.,State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol and College of Ecology and Evolution, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.,Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Sciences and Ecological Engineering, College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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40
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Horswill C, Kindsvater HK, Juan‐Jordá MJ, Dulvy NK, Mangel M, Matthiopoulos J. Global reconstruction of life-history strategies: A case study using tunas. J Appl Ecol 2019; 56:855-865. [PMID: 31217633 PMCID: PMC6559282 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 11/06/2018] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Measuring the demographic parameters of exploited populations is central to predicting their vulnerability and extinction risk. However, current rates of population decline and species loss greatly outpace our ability to empirically monitor all populations that are potentially threatened.The scale of this problem cannot be addressed through additional data collection alone, and therefore it is a common practice to conduct population assessments based on surrogate data collected from similar species. However, this approach introduces biases and imprecisions that are difficult to quantify. Recent developments in hierarchical modelling have enabled missing values to be reconstructed based on the correlations between available life-history data, linking similar species based on phylogeny and environmental conditions.However, these methods cannot resolve life-history variability among populations or species that are closely placed spatially or taxonomically. Here, theoretically motivated constraints that align with life-history theory offer a new avenue for addressing this problem. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines fragmented, multispecies and multi-population data with established life-history theory, in order to objectively determine similarity between populations based on trait correlations (life-history trade-offs) obtained from model fitting.We reconstruct 59 unobserved life-history parameters for 23 populations of tuna that sustain some of the world's most valuable fisheries. Testing by cross-validation across different scenarios indicated that life-histories were accurately reconstructed when information was available for other populations of the same species. The reconstruction of several traits was also accurate for species represented by a single population, although credible intervals increased dramatically. Synthesis and applications. The described Bayesian hierarchical method provides access to life-history traits that are difficult to measure directly and reconstructs missing life-history information useful for assessing populations and species that are directly or indirectly affected by human exploitation of natural resources. The method is particularly useful for examining populations that are spatially or taxonomically similar, and the reconstructed life-history strategies described for the principal market tunas have immediate application to the world-wide management of these fisheries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cat Horswill
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative MedicineUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
| | - Holly K. Kindsvater
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural ResourcesRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickNew Jersey
| | - Maria José Juan‐Jordá
- AZTIPasaiaGipuzkoaSpain
- Earth to Ocean Research GroupDepartment of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Nicholas K. Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research GroupDepartment of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Marc Mangel
- Theoretical Ecology GroupDepartment of BiologyUniversity of BergenBergenNorway
- Institute of Marine SciencesDepartment of Applied MathematicsUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCalifornia
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative MedicineUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
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41
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Davies TJ. The macroecology and macroevolution of plant species at risk. THE NEW PHYTOLOGIST 2019; 222:708-713. [PMID: 30485443 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2018] [Accepted: 11/12/2018] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Contents Summary 708 I. Introduction 708 II. Fossils and phylogenies: learning from our past 708 III. Threatened species and Red Lists 710 IV. The geography of threat 710 V. The taxonomy of threat 710 VI. Predicting species at risk 711 VII. Conclusion 711 Acknowledgements 712 References 712 SUMMARY: Current rates of extinction are unprecedented in human history. The fossil record and newer molecular phylogenies illuminate historical patterns of speciation and extinction. They reveal both spectacular radiations and the characteristic features of mass extinction events in our geological past. The IUCN Red List provides insight into present-day species declines. There is emerging synthesis that species at risk are nonrandomly distributed across space and phylogeny. This pattern may be explained by geographical variation in driver intensity and species differential sensitivities. However, traits that confer resistance to one global change driver may increase susceptibility to a different driver. A complete understanding of extinction risk requires consideration of the interaction between extinction drivers, ecological traits, and species' evolutionary histories.
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Affiliation(s)
- T Jonathan Davies
- Departments of Botany, Forest & Conservation Sciences, Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 2212 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
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42
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Using climate change models to inform the recovery of the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris. ORYX 2019. [DOI: 10.1017/s0030605318000923] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
AbstractTranslocation of species to areas of former habitat after threats have been mitigated is a common conservation action. However, the long-term success of reintroduction relies on identification of currently available habitat and areas that will remain, or become, habitat in the future. Commonly, a short-term view is taken, focusing on obvious and assumed threats such as predators and habitat degradation. However, in areas subject to significant climate change, challenges include correctly identifying variables that define habitat, and considering probable changes over time. This poses challenges with species such as the western ground parrot Pezoporus flaviventris, which was once relatively common in near-coastal south-western Australia, an area subject to major climate change. This species has declined to one small population, estimated to comprise < 150 individuals. Reasons for the decline include altered fire regimes, introduced predators and habitat clearing. The establishment of new populations is a high priority, but the extent to which a rapidly changing climate has affected, and will continue to affect, this species remains largely conjecture, and understanding probable climate change impacts is essential to the prioritization of potential reintroduction sites. We developed high-resolution species distribution models and used these to investigate climate change impacts on current and historical distributions, and identify locations that will remain, or become, bioclimatically suitable habitat in the future. This information has been given to an expert panel to identify and prioritize areas suitable for site-specific management and/or translocation.
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Spatial Phylogenetics of Florida Vascular Plants: The Effects of Calibration and Uncertainty on Diversity Estimates. iScience 2018; 11:57-70. [PMID: 30590251 PMCID: PMC6308250 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2018.12.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2018] [Revised: 09/29/2018] [Accepted: 12/04/2018] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Recent availability of biodiversity data resources has enabled an unprecedented ability to estimate phylogenetically based biodiversity metrics over broad scales. Such approaches elucidate ecological and evolutionary processes yielding a biota and help guide conservation efforts. However, the choice of appropriate phylogenetic resources and underlying input data uncertainties may affect interpretation. Here, we address how differences among phylogenetic source trees and levels of phylogenetic uncertainty affect these metrics and test existing hypotheses regarding geographic biodiversity patterns across the diverse vascular plant flora of Florida, US. Ecological niche models for 1,490 Florida species were combined with a "purpose-built" phylogenetic tree (phylogram and chronogram), as well as with trees derived from community resources (Phylomatic and Open Tree of Life). There were only modest differences in phylodiversity metrics given the phylogenetic source tree and taking into account the level of phylogenetic uncertainty; we identify similar areas of conservation interest across Florida regardless of the method used.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bayu Broto
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology; University of Maine; 5755 Nutting Hall Orono ME 04469 USA
| | - Alessio Mortelliti
- Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Conservation Biology; University of Maine; 5755 Nutting Hall Orono ME 04469 USA
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45
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Changes in human footprint drive changes in species extinction risk. Nat Commun 2018; 9:4621. [PMID: 30397204 PMCID: PMC6218474 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07049-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 102] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2018] [Accepted: 10/09/2018] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
Predicting how species respond to human pressure is essential to anticipate their decline and identify appropriate conservation strategies. Both human pressure and extinction risk change over time, but their inter-relationship is rarely considered in extinction risk modelling. Here we measure the relationship between the change in terrestrial human footprint (HFP)—representing cumulative human pressure on the environment—and the change in extinction risk of the world’s terrestrial mammals. We find the values of HFP across space, and its change over time, are significantly correlated to trends in species extinction risk, with higher predictive importance than environmental or life-history variables. The anthropogenic conversion of areas with low pressure values (HFP < 3 out of 50) is the most significant predictor of change in extinction risk, but there are biogeographical variations. Our framework, calibrated on past extinction risk trends, can be used to predict the impact of increasing human pressure on biodiversity. Species extinction risk is difficult to measure and often lags behind the pace of increasing threats. Here, the authors demonstrate how monitoring changes in cumulative human pressures could be used to rapidly assess potential change in species’ conservation status.
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Kindsvater HK, Dulvy NK, Horswill C, Juan-Jordá MJ, Mangel M, Matthiopoulos J. Overcoming the Data Crisis in Biodiversity Conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 2018; 33:676-688. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.06.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2017] [Revised: 05/11/2018] [Accepted: 06/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Abstract
Conservation biology aims to identify species most at risk of extinction and to understand factors that forecast species vulnerability. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a leading source for extinction risk data of species globally, however, many potentially at risk species are not assessed by the IUCN owing to inadequate data. Of the approximately 1150 bat species (Chiroptera) recognized by the IUCN, 17 percent are categorized as Data Deficient. Here, we show that large trait databases in combination with a comprehensive phylogeny can identify which traits are important for assessing extinction risk in bats. Using phylogenetic logistic regressions, we show that geographic range and island endemism are the strongest correlates of binary extinction risk. We also show that simulations using two models that trade-off between data complexity and data coverage provide similar estimates of extinction risk for species that have received a Red List assessment. We then use our model parameters to provide quantitative predictions of extinction risk for 60 species that have not received risk assessments by the IUCN. Our model suggests that at least 20 bat species should be treated as threatened by extinction. In combination with expert knowledge, our results can be used as a quick, first-pass prioritization for conservation action.
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48
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Tietje M, Rödel MO. Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record. Ecol Lett 2018; 21:1135-1142. [PMID: 29790283 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2017] [Revised: 01/06/2018] [Accepted: 03/23/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil-calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa-specific Red Listing status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie Tietje
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Invalidenstr. 43, 10115, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Mark-Oliver Rödel
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Invalidenstr. 43, 10115, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
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Abstract
Driven by limited resources and a sense of urgency, the prioritization of species for conservation has been a persistent concern in conservation science. Gymnosperms (comprising ginkgo, conifers, cycads, and gnetophytes) are one of the most threatened groups of living organisms, with 40% of the species at high risk of extinction, about twice as many as the most recent estimates for all plants (i.e. 21.4%). This high proportion of species facing extinction highlights the urgent action required to secure their future through an objective prioritization approach. The Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) method rapidly ranks species based on their evolutionary distinctiveness and the extinction risks they face. EDGE is applied to gymnosperms using a phylogenetic tree comprising DNA sequence data for 85% of gymnosperm species (923 out of 1090 species), to which the 167 missing species were added, and IUCN Red List assessments available for 92% of species. The effect of different extinction probability transformations and the handling of IUCN data deficient species on the resulting rankings is investigated. Although top entries in our ranking comprise species that were expected to score well (e.g. Wollemia nobilis, Ginkgo biloba), many were unexpected (e.g. Araucaria araucana). These results highlight the necessity of using approaches that integrate evolutionary information in conservation science.
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50
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The interplay of past diversification and evolutionary isolation with present imperilment across the amphibian tree of life. Nat Ecol Evol 2018; 2:850-858. [DOI: 10.1038/s41559-018-0515-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 273] [Impact Index Per Article: 45.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2017] [Accepted: 02/21/2018] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
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