Quantifying the effects of the break up of Pangaea on global terrestrial diversification with neutral theory

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.

Mechanistic neutral models show that sampling biases drive the apparent explosion of early tetrapod diversity

Estimates of deep-time biodiversity typically rely on statistical methods to mitigate the impacts of sampling biases in the fossil record. However, these methods are limited by the spatial and temporal scale of the underlying data. Here we use a spatially explicit mechanistic model, based on neutral theory, to test hypotheses of early tetrapod diversity change during the late Carboniferous and early Permian, critical intervals for the diversification of vertebrate life on land. Our simulations suggest that apparent increases in early tetrapod diversity were not driven by local endemism following the 'Carboniferous rainforest collapse'. Instead, changes in face-value diversity can be explained by variation in sampling intensity through time. Our results further demonstrate the importance of accounting for sampling biases in analyses of the fossil record and highlight the vast potential of mechanistic models, including neutral models, for testing hypotheses in palaeobiology.

Phylomitogenomics provides new perspectives on the Euphasmatodea radiation (Insecta: Phasmatodea)

Phasmatodea species diversity lies almost entirely within its suborder Euphasmatodea, which exhibits a pantropical distribution and is considered to derive from a recent and rapid evolutionary radiation. To shed light on Euphasmatodea origins and diversification, we assembled the mitogenomes of 17 species from transcriptomic sequencing data and analysed them along with 22 already available Phasmatodea mitogenomes and 33 mitogenomes representing most of the Polyneoptera lineages. Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Inference approaches retrieved consistent topologies, both showing the widespread conflict between phylogenetic approaches and traditional systematics. We performed a divergence time analysis leveraging ten fossil specimens representative of most polyneopteran lineages: the time tree obtained supports an older radiation of the clade with respect to previous hypotheses. Euphasmatodea diversification is inferred to have started ~ 187 million years ago, suggesting that the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction and the breakup of Pangea could have contributed to the process. We also investigated Euphasmatodea mitogenomes patterns of dN, dS and dN/dS ratio throughout our time-tree, trying to characterize the selective regime which may have shaped the clade evolution.

Ecological constraints coupled with deep-time habitat dynamics predict the latitudinal diversity gradient in reef fishes

We develop a spatially explicit model of diversification based on palaeohabitat to explore the predictions of four major hypotheses potentially explaining the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), namely, the 'time-area', 'tropical niche conservatism', 'ecological limits' and 'evolutionary speed' hypotheses. We compare simulation outputs to observed diversity gradients in the global reef fish fauna. Our simulations show that these hypotheses are non-mutually exclusive and that their relative influence depends on the time scale considered. Simulations suggest that reef habitat dynamics produced the LDG during deep geological time, while ecological constraints shaped the modern LDG, with a strong influence of the reduction in the latitudinal extent of tropical reefs during the Neogene. Overall, this study illustrates how mechanistic models in ecology and evolution can provide a temporal and spatial understanding of the role of speciation, extinction and dispersal in generating biodiversity patterns.

Nonequilibrium evolution of volatility in origination and extinction explains fat-tailed fluctuations in Phanerozoic biodiversity

Fluctuations in biodiversity, large and small, pervade the fossil record, yet we do not understand the processes generating them. Here, we extend theory from nonequilibrium statistical physics to describe the fat-tailed form of fluctuations in Phanerozoic marine invertebrate richness. Using this theory, known as superstatistics, we show that heterogeneous rates of origination and extinction between clades and conserved rates within clades account for this fat-tailed form. We identify orders and families as the taxonomic levels at which clades experience interclade heterogeneity and within-clade homogeneity of rates, indicating that families are subsystems in local statistical equilibrium, while the entire system is not. The separation of timescales between within-clade background rates and the origin of major innovations producing new orders and families allows within-clade dynamics to reach equilibrium, while between-clade dynamics do not. The distribution of different dynamics across clades is consistent with niche conservatism and pulsed exploration of adaptive landscapes.

Widely distributed red algae often represent hidden introductions, complexes of cryptic species or species with strong phylogeographic structure

Despite studies suggesting that most seaweeds are poor dispersers, many red algal species are reported to have circumglobal distributions. Such distributions have mostly been based on morphological identifications, but molecular data have revealed a range of issues with morphologically defined species boundaries. Consequently, the real distribution of such reportedly circumglobal species must be questioned. In this study, we analyzed molecular data sets (rbcL gene) of nine species in the Rhodomelaceae for which samples were available from widely spaced geographical locations. Three overall patterns were identified: (i) species showing strong phylogeographic structure (i.e., phylogenetic similarity correlates with geographical provenance), often to the point that populations from different locations could be considered as different species (Lophosiphonia obscura, Ophidocladus simpliciusculus, Polysiphonia villum, and Xiphosiphonia pinnulata); (ii) species with a broad distribution that is explained, in part, by putative human-mediated transport (Symphyocladia dendroidea and Polysiphonia devoniensis); and (iii) non-monophyletic complexes of cryptic species, most with a more restricted distribution than previously thought (Herposiphonia tenella, Symphyocladia dendroidea, and the Xiphosiphonia pennata complex that includes the species Xiphosiphonia pinnulata and Symphyocladia spinifera). This study shows that widely distributed species are the exception in marine red algae, unless they have been spread by humans.

Comparing spatial diversification and meta-population models in the Indo-Australian Archipelago

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Ancient River Inference Explains Exceptional Oriental Freshwater Mussel Radiations

The concept of long-lived (ancient) lakes has had a great influence on the development of evolutionary biogeography. According to this insight, a number of lakes on Earth have existed for several million years (e.g., Baikal and Tanganyika) and represent unique evolutionary hotspots with multiple intra-basin radiations. In contrast, rivers are usually considered to be variable systems, and the possibility of their long-term existence during geological epochs has never been tested. In this study, we reconstruct the history of freshwater basin interactions across continents based on the multi-locus fossil-calibrated phylogeny of freshwater mussels (Unionidae). These mussels most likely originated in Southeast and East Asia in the Jurassic, with the earliest expansions into North America and Africa (since the mid-Cretaceous) following the colonization of Europe and India (since the Paleocene). We discovered two ancient monophyletic mussel radiations (mean age ~51–55 Ma) within the paleo-Mekong catchment (i.e., the Mekong, Siam, and Malacca Straits paleo-river drainage basins). Our findings reveal that the Mekong may be considered a long-lived river that has existed throughout the entire Cenozoic epoch.

The challenges to inferring the regulators of biodiversity in deep time

Attempts to infer the ecological drivers of macroevolution in deep time have long drawn inspiration from work on extant systems, but long-term evolutionary and geological changes complicate the simple extrapolation of such theory. Recent efforts to incorporate a more informed ecology into macroevolution have moved beyond the descriptive, seeking to isolate generating mechanisms and produce testable hypotheses of how groups of organisms usurp each other or coexist over vast timespans. This theme issue aims to exemplify this progress, providing a series of case studies of how novel modelling approaches are helping infer the regulators of biodiversity in deep time. In this Introduction, we explore the challenges of these new approaches. First, we discuss how our choices of taxonomic units have implications for the conclusions drawn. Second, we emphasize the need to embrace the interdependence of biotic and abiotic changes, because no living organism ignores its environment. Third, in the light of parts 1 and 2, we discuss the set of dynamic signatures that we might expect to observe in the fossil record. Finally, we ask whether these dynamics represent the most ecologically informative foci for research efforts aimed at inferring the regulators of biodiversity in deep time. The papers in this theme issue contribute in each of these areas.