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Mutillod C, Buisson É, Mahy G, Jaunatre R, Bullock JM, Tatin L, Dutoit T. Ecological restoration and rewilding: two approaches with complementary goals? Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2024; 99:820-836. [PMID: 38346335 DOI: 10.1111/brv.13046] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Revised: 12/12/2023] [Accepted: 12/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/09/2024]
Abstract
As we enter the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030) and address the urgent need to protect and restore ecosystems and their ecological functions at large scales, rewilding has been brought into the limelight. Interest in this discipline is thus increasing, with a large number of conceptual scientific papers published in recent years. Increasing enthusiasm has led to discussions and debates in the scientific community about the differences between ecological restoration and rewilding. The main goal of this review is to compare and clarify the position of each field. Our results show that despite some differences (e.g. top-down versus bottom-up and functional versus taxonomic approaches) and notably with distinct goals - recovery of a defined historically determined target ecosystem versus recovery of natural processes with often no target endpoint - ecological restoration and rewilding have a common scope: the recovery of ecosystems following anthropogenic degradation. The goals of ecological restoration and rewilding have expanded with the progress of each field. However, it is unclear whether there is a paradigm shift with ecological restoration moving towards rewilding or vice versa. We underline the complementarity in time and in space of ecological restoration and rewilding. To conclude, we argue that reconciliation of these two fields of nature conservation to ensure complementarity could create a synergy to achieve their common scope.
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Affiliation(s)
- Clémentine Mutillod
- Avignon Université, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie IMBE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, site Agroparc BP 61207, Avignon Cedex 09, 84911, France
| | - Élise Buisson
- Avignon Université, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie IMBE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, site Agroparc BP 61207, Avignon Cedex 09, 84911, France
| | - Gregory Mahy
- Avignon Université, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie IMBE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, site Agroparc BP 61207, Avignon Cedex 09, 84911, France
- Université de Liège, Biodiversité et Paysage, 27 Avenue Maréchal Juin, Gembloux, 5030, Belgique
| | - Renaud Jaunatre
- Université Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, UR LESSEM, St-Martin-d'Hères, F-38402, France
| | - James M Bullock
- UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, OX10 8BB, Wallingford, UK
| | - Laurent Tatin
- Avignon Université, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie IMBE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, site Agroparc BP 61207, Avignon Cedex 09, 84911, France
| | - Thierry Dutoit
- Avignon Université, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie IMBE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, site Agroparc BP 61207, Avignon Cedex 09, 84911, France
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de Oliveira K, Novaes RLM, Weber MM, Moratelli R. Forecasting climate change impacts on neotropical Myotis: Insights from ecological niche models for conservation strategies. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11419. [PMID: 38932963 PMCID: PMC11199191 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/06/2023] [Revised: 04/22/2024] [Accepted: 05/02/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Myotis originated during the Oligocene in Eurasia and has become one of the most diverse bat genera, with over 140 species. In the case of neotropical Myotis, there is a high degree of phenotypic conservatism. This means that the taxonomic and geographic limits of several species are not well understood, which constrains detailed studies on their ecology and evolution and how to effectively protect these species. Similar to other organisms, bats may respond to climate change by moving to different areas, adapting to new conditions, or going extinct. Ecological niche models have become established as an efficient and widely used method for interpolating (and sometimes extrapolating) species' distributions and offer an effective tool for identifying species conservation requirements and forecasting how global environmental changes may affect species distribution. How species respond to climate change is a key point for understanding their vulnerability and designing effective conservation strategies in the future. Thus, here, we assessed the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of two phylogenetically related species, Myotis ruber and Myotis keaysi. The results showed that the species are influenced by changes in temperature, and for M. ruber, precipitation also becomes important. Furthermore, M. ruber appears to have been more flexible to decreases in temperature that occurred in the past, which allowed it to expand its areas of environmental suitability, unlike M. keaysi, which decreased and concentrated these areas. However, despite a drastic decrease in the spatial area of environmental suitability of these species in the future, there are areas of potential climate stability that have been maintained since the Pleistocene, indicating where conservation efforts need to be concentrated in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karoliny de Oliveira
- Fundação Oswaldo CruzFiocruz Mata AtlânticaRio de JaneiroBrazil
- Programa de Pós‐Graduação Em Biodiversidade e Biologia EvolutivaUniversidade Federal do Rio de JaneiroRio de JaneiroBrazil
| | | | - Marcelo M. Weber
- Departamento de Zootecnia e Ciências BiológicasUniversidade Federal de Santa MariaRio Grande do SulBrazil
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Davoli M, Svenning JC. Future changes in society and climate may strongly shape wild large-herbivore faunas across Europe. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2024; 379:20230334. [PMID: 38583466 PMCID: PMC10999261 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0334] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2023] [Accepted: 12/03/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Restoring wild communities of large herbivores is critical for the conservation of biodiverse ecosystems, but environmental changes in the twenty-first century could drastically affect the availability of habitats. We projected future habitat dynamics for 18 wild large herbivores in Europe and the relative future potential patterns of species richness and assemblage mean body weight considering four alternative scenarios of socioeconomic development in human society and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0, SSP5-RCP8.5). Under SSP1-RCP2.6, corresponding to a transition towards sustainable development, we found stable habitat suitability for most species and overall stable assemblage mean body weight compared to the present, with an average increase in species richness (in 2100: 3.03 ± 1.55 compared to today's 2.25 ± 1.31 species/area). The other scenarios are generally unfavourable for the conservation of wild large herbivores, although under the SSP5-RCP8.5 scenario there would be increase in species richness and assemblage mean body weight in some southern regions (e.g. + 62.86 kg mean body weight in Balkans/Greece). Our results suggest that a shift towards a sustainable socioeconomic development would overall provide the best prospect of our maintaining or even increasing the diversity of wild herbivore assemblages in Europe, thereby promoting trophic complexity and the potential to restore functioning and self-regulating ecosystems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marco Davoli
- Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO) & Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Aarhus University, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
- Department of Biology and Biotechnologies ‘Charles Darwin’, Sapienza University of Rome, Viale Dell'Università 32, 00185, Rome, Italy
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4
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Mitchell C, Bolam J, Bertola LD, Naude VN, Gonçalves da Silva L, Razgour O. Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11391. [PMID: 38779533 PMCID: PMC11109047 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11391] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2024] [Revised: 04/22/2024] [Accepted: 04/25/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land-use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%-16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land-use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human-wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Vincent N. Naude
- Department of Conservation Ecology and EntomologyStellenbosch UniversityMatielandSouth Africa
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Poquérusse J, Brown CL, Gaillard C, Doughty C, Dalén L, Gallagher AJ, Wooller M, Zimov N, Church GM, Lamm B, Hysolli E. Assessing contemporary Arctic habitat availability for a woolly mammoth proxy. Sci Rep 2024; 14:9804. [PMID: 38684726 PMCID: PMC11058768 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-60442-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2024] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 05/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Interest continues to grow in Arctic megafaunal ecological engineering, but, since the mass extinction of megafauna ~ 12-15 ka, key physiographic variables and available forage continue to change. Here we sought to assess the extent to which contemporary Arctic ecosystems are conducive to the rewilding of megaherbivores, using a woolly mammoth (M. primigenius) proxy as a model species. We first perform a literature review on woolly mammoth dietary habits. We then leverage Oak Ridge National Laboratories Distributive Active Archive Center Global Aboveground and Belowground Biomass Carbon Density Maps to generate aboveground biomass carbon density estimates in plant functional types consumed by the woolly mammoth at 300 m resolution on Alaska's North Slope. We supplement these analyses with a NASA Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment dataset to downgrade overall biomass estimates to digestible levels. We further downgrade available forage by using a conversion factor representing the relationship between total biomass and net primary productivity (NPP) for arctic vegetation types. Integrating these estimates with the forage needs of woolly mammoths, we conservatively estimate Alaska's North Slope could support densities of 0.0-0.38 woolly mammoth km-2 (mean 0.13) across a variety of habitats. These results may inform innovative rewilding strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Camille Gaillard
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Chris Doughty
- School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, 86011, USA
| | - Love Dalén
- Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- Centre for Palaeogenetics, Svante Arrhenius Väg 20C, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Bioinformatics and Genetics, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Matthew Wooller
- College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
| | - Nikita Zimov
- North-East Science Station, Pacific Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Chersky, Russia
| | - George M Church
- Colossal Biosciences Inc, Austin, TX, 78701, USA
- Wyss Institute for Biologically Inspired Engineering, Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
- Department of Genetics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 02115, USA
- Harvard-MIT Program in Health Sciences and Technology, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA
| | - Ben Lamm
- Colossal Biosciences Inc, Austin, TX, 78701, USA.
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6
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Liu T, Liu H, Wang Y, Yang Y. Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution Pattern of Osphya (Coleoptera: Melandryidae), an Old but Small Beetle Group Distributed in the Northern Hemisphere. INSECTS 2023; 14:insects14050476. [PMID: 37233104 DOI: 10.3390/insects14050476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Exploring the development of species distribution patterns under climate change is the basis of biogeography and macroecology. However, under the background of global climate change, few studies focus on how the distribution pattern and the range of insects have or will change in response to long-term climate change. An old but small, Northern-Hemisphere-distributed beetle group Osphya is an ideal subject to conduct the study in this aspect. Here, based on a comprehensive geographic dataset, we analyzed the global distribution pattern of Osphya using ArcGIS techniques, which declared a discontinuous and uneven distribution pattern across the USA, Europe, and Asia. Furthermore, we predicted the suitable habitats of Osphya under different climate scenarios via the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the high suitability areas were always concentrated in the European Mediterranean and the western coast of USA, while a low suitability exhibited in Asia. Moreover, by integrating the analyses of biogeography and habitat suitability, we inferred that the Osphya species conservatively prefer a warm, stable, and rainy climate, and they tend to expand towards higher latitude in response to the climate warming from the past to future. These results are helpful in exploring the species diversity and protection of Osphya.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tong Liu
- The Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Application, School of Life Science, Institute of Life Science and Green Development, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China
| | - Haoyu Liu
- The Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Application, School of Life Science, Institute of Life Science and Green Development, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China
| | - Yongjie Wang
- Institute of Zoology, Guangdong Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510075, China
| | - Yuxia Yang
- The Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Application, School of Life Science, Institute of Life Science and Green Development, Hebei University, Baoding 071002, China
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Cardillo M, Skeels A, Dinnage R. Priorities for conserving the world's terrestrial mammals based on over-the-horizon extinction risk. Curr Biol 2023; 33:1381-1388.e6. [PMID: 37040697 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2023.02.063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2022] [Revised: 12/15/2022] [Accepted: 02/21/2023] [Indexed: 04/13/2023]
Abstract
Three major axes of global change put the world's mammal biodiversity at risk: climate change, human population growth, and land-use change.1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 In some parts of the world the full effects of these threats on species will only be felt in decades to come, yet conservation emphasizes species currently threatened with extinction, by threats that have already occurred. There have been calls for conservation to become more proactive by anticipating and protecting species that may not yet be threatened, but have a high chance of becoming threatened in the future.3,6,8,10,12,13,14 We refer to this as "over-the-horizon" extinction risk, and we identify such species among the world's nonmarine mammals by considering not only the severity of increase in threats faced by each species, but also the way each species' biology confers sensitivity or robustness to threats. We define four future risk factors based on species' biology and projected exposure to severe change in climate, human population, and land use. We regard species with two or more of these risk factors as especially vulnerable to future extinction risk.10,15,16,17,18,19 Our models predict that by 2100 up to 1,057 (20%) of nonmarine mammal species will have combinations of two or more future risk factors. These species will be particularly concentrated in two future risk hotspots in sub-Saharan Africa and southern/eastern Australia. Proactively targeting species with over-the-horizon extinction risk could help to future-proof global conservation planning and prevent a new wave of mammal species from becoming threatened with extinction by the end of this century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marcel Cardillo
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, 46 Sullivans Creek Rd, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia.
| | - Alexander Skeels
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, 46 Sullivans Creek Rd, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia; Landscape Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, ETH Zürich, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Russell Dinnage
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, 46 Sullivans Creek Rd, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia; Institute of Environment, Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199, USA
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Carrillo-García C, Girola-Iglesias L, Guijarro M, Hernando C, Madrigal J, Mateo RG. Ecological niche models applied to post-megafire vegetation restoration in the context of climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 855:158858. [PMID: 36122721 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2022] [Revised: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 09/15/2022] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and land-use changes are the main drivers altering fire regimes and leading to the occurrence of megafires. Current management policies mainly focus on short-term restoration without considering how climate change might affect regeneration dynamics. We aimed to test the usefulness of ecological niche models (ENMs) to integrate the effects of climate change on tree species distributions into post-fire restoration planning. We also examined different important conceptual and methodological aspects during this novel process. We constructed ENM at fine spatial resolution (25 m) for the four main tree species (Pinus pinaster, Quercus pyrenaica, Q. faginea and Q. ilex) in an area affected by a megafire in Central Spain at two scales (local and regional), two periods (2 and 14 years after the fire) at the local scale, and under two future climate change scenarios. The usefulness of ENMs as support tools in decision-making for post-fire management was confirmed for the first time. As hypothesized, models developed at both scales are different, since they represent different scale dependent drivers of species distribution patterns. However, both provide objective information to be considered by stakeholders in combination with other sources of information. Local models generated with vegetation data 14 years after the fire provided valuable information about local and current vegetation dynamics (i.e., current microecology spatial niche prediction). Regional models are capable of considering a higher proportion of the climatic niche of species to generate reliable climate change forecasts (i.e., future macroclimate spatial niche forecast). The use of precise ENMs provide both an objective interpretation of potential habitat conditions and the opportunity of examining vegetation patches, that can be very valuable in managing restoration of areas affected by megafires under climate change conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cristina Carrillo-García
- Grupo de Incendios Forestales, Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR-INIA), CSIC, Ctra. Coruña Km 7,5, 28040 Madrid, Spain; ETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Ramiro de Maeztu s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
| | - Lucas Girola-Iglesias
- ETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Ramiro de Maeztu s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Mercedes Guijarro
- Grupo de Incendios Forestales, Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR-INIA), CSIC, Ctra. Coruña Km 7,5, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Carmen Hernando
- Grupo de Incendios Forestales, Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR-INIA), CSIC, Ctra. Coruña Km 7,5, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Javier Madrigal
- Grupo de Incendios Forestales, Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR-INIA), CSIC, Ctra. Coruña Km 7,5, 28040 Madrid, Spain; ETSI Montes, Forestal y del Medio Natural, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Ramiro de Maeztu s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain
| | - Rubén G Mateo
- Departamento de Biología (Botánica), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Edificio de Biología, Campus de Cantoblanco, Calle Darwin 2, 28049 Madrid, Spain; Centro de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Cambio Global (CIBC-UAM), Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Edificio de Biología, Campus de Cantoblanco, Calle Darwin 2, 28049 Madrid, Spain
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Kapuka A, Dobor L, Hlásny T. Climate change threatens the distribution of major woody species and ecosystem services provision in southern Africa. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 850:158006. [PMID: 35970468 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2022] [Revised: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 08/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
In southern Africa, woody vegetation provides essential ecological, regulation, and cultural ecosystem services (ES), yet many species and ecosystems are increasingly threatened by climate change and land-use transformations. We investigated the effect of climate change on the distribution of eight species in 18 countries in southern Africa, covering 36% of the continent. We proposed a loser/winner ranking of the species based on the changes in land climatic suitability within their historical distribution and future gains and losses of suitable areas. We interpreted these findings in terms of changes in key ES (timber, food, and energy) provision and identified hotspots of ES provision decline. We used species presence data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, climatic data from the AfriClim dataset, and the MaxEnt algorithm to project the changes in species-specific land climatic suitability. Among the eight investigated species, the baseline suitability range of Mopane (Colophosperm mopane) was least affected by climate change. At the same time, the area of its future distribution was projected to double, rendering it a regional winner. Another two species, manketti (Schinziophyton rautanenii) and leadwood (Combretum imberbe) showed high future gains too; however, the impact on their baseline suitability range differed between the climatic scenarios. The baseline range of African rosewood (Guibourtia coleosperma) declined entirely, and the future gains were negligible, rendering the species a regional loser. The effect of climate change was particularly severe on timber-producing species (four out of eight species), while species providing food (four species) and energy (four species) were affected less. Our projections portrayed distinct hotspot and coldspot areas, where climatic suitability for multiple species was concurrently projected to decline or persist. This assessment can inform spatially targeted adaptation and conservation actions and strategies, which are currently lacking in many African regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alpo Kapuka
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Suchdol, 165 00 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Laura Dobor
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Suchdol, 165 00 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, Suchdol, 165 00 Prague 6, Czech Republic.
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Lu X, Jiang R, Zhang G. Predicting the potential distribution of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in China under climate change. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2022; 13:942448. [PMID: 35991412 PMCID: PMC9384867 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2022.942448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects parasitic plants and their hosts on distributions. However, little is known about how parasites and their hosts shift in distribution, and niche overlap in response to global change remains unclear to date. Here, the potential distribution and habitat suitability of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in northern China were predicted using MaxEnt based on occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The results indicated that (1) Temperature annual range (Bio7) and Precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were identified as the common key climatic factors influencing distribution (percentage contribution > 10%) for Cynomorium songaricum vs. Nitraria sibirica (i.e., parasite vs. host); Temperature seasonality (Bio4) and Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) for Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica; Bio4 for Cistanche deserticola vs. Haloxylon ammodendron; Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18) for Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima. Accordingly, different parasite-host pairs share to varying degree the common climatic factors. (2) Currently, these holoparasites had small suitable habitats (i.e., moderately and highly) (0.97-3.77%), with few highly suitable habitats (0.19-0.81%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats would change to some extent; their distribution shifts fell into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica and Cistanche mongolica) and fluctuating type (Cynomorium songaricum and Cistanche deserticola). In contrast, the hosts' current suitable habitats (1.42-13.43%) varied greatly, with highly restricted suitable habitats (0.18-1.00%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats presented different trends: growing type (Nitraria sibirica), declining type (Haloxylon ammodendron) and fluctuating type (the other hosts). (3) The niche overlaps between parasites and hosts differed significantly in the future, which can be grouped into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica, Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima), and fluctuating type (the others). Such niche overlap asynchronies may result in severe spatial limitations of parasites under future climate conditions. Our findings indicate that climate factors restricting parasites and hosts' distributions, niche overlaps between them, together with parasitic species identity, may jointly influence the suitable habitats of parasitic plants. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the threatened holoparasites themselves in conjunction with their suitable habitats and the parasite-host association when developing conservation planning in the future.
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Sales LP, Galetti M, Carnaval A, Monsarrat S, Svenning JC, Pires MM. The effect of past defaunation on ranges, niches, and future biodiversity forecasts. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:3683-3693. [PMID: 35246902 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Humans have reshaped the distribution of biodiversity across the globe, extirpating species from regions otherwise suitable and restricting populations to a subset of their original ranges. Here, we ask if anthropogenic range contractions since the Late Pleistocene led to an under-representation of the realized niches for megafauna, an emblematic group of taxa often targeted for restoration actions. Using reconstructions of past geographic distributions (i.e., natural ranges) for 146 extant terrestrial large-bodied (>44 kg) mammals, we estimate their climatic niches as if they had retained their original distributions and evaluate their observed niche dynamics. We found that range contractions led to a sizeable under-representation of the realized niches of several species (i.e., niche unfilling). For 29 species, more than 10% of the environmental space once seen in their natural ranges has been lost due to anthropogenic activity, with at least 12 species undergoing reductions of more than 50% of their realized niches. Eighteen species may now be confined to low-suitability locations, where fitness and abundance are likely diminished; we consider these taxa 'climatic refugees'. For those species, conservation strategies supported by current ranges risk being misguided if current, suboptimal habitats are considered baseline for future restoration actions. Because most climate-based biodiversity forecasts rely exclusively on current occurrence records, we went on to test the effect of neglecting historical information on estimates of species' potential distribution - as a proxy of sensitivity to climate change. We found that niche unfilling driven by past range contraction leads to an overestimation of sensitivity to future climatic change, resulting in 50% higher rates of global extinction, and underestimating the potential for megafauna conservation and restoration under future climate change. In conclusion, range contractions since the Late Pleistocene have also left imprints on megafauna realized climatic niches. Therefore, niche truncation driven by defaunation can directly affect climate and habitat-based conservation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lilian P Sales
- Department of Animal Biology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil
- Department of Biology, Faculty of Arts and Science, Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada
| | - Mauro Galetti
- Department of Biology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, USA
- Instituto de Biociências, Departamento de Biodiversidade, Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), Rio Claro, Brazil
| | - Ana Carnaval
- Department of Biology and Biology Ph.D. Program, The Graduate Center of CUNY, The City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA
| | - Sophie Monsarrat
- Department of Biology, Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE) and Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Department of Biology, Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE) and Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Mathias M Pires
- Department of Animal Biology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil
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12
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Pang SEH, Zeng Y, De Alban JDT, Webb EL. Occurrence–habitat mismatching and niche truncation when modelling distributions affected by anthropogenic range contractions. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13544] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Sean E. H. Pang
- Department of Biological Sciences National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore
| | - Yiwen Zeng
- Department of Biological Sciences National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore
- Centre for Nature‐Based Climate Solutions National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore
| | - Jose Don T. De Alban
- Department of Biological Sciences National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore
- Centre for Nature‐Based Climate Solutions National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore
| | - Edward L. Webb
- Department of Biological Sciences National University of Singapore Singapore Singapore
- Department of Forest Sciences Viikki Tropical Resources Institute University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
- Helsinki Institute of Sustainability Science (HELSUS) Helsinki Finland
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13
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Koldasbayeva D, Tregubova P, Shadrin D, Gasanov M, Pukalchik M. Large-scale forecasting of Heracleum sosnowskyi habitat suitability under the climate change on publicly available data. Sci Rep 2022; 12:6128. [PMID: 35414080 PMCID: PMC9005721 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-09953-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 03/30/2022] [Indexed: 01/18/2023] Open
Abstract
This research aims to establish the possible habitat suitability of Heracleum sosnowskyi (HS), one of the most aggressive invasive plants, in current and future climate conditions across the territory of the European part of Russia. We utilised a species distribution modelling framework using publicly available data of plant occurrence collected in citizen science projects (CSP). Climatic variables and soil characteristics were considered to follow possible dependencies with environmental factors. We applied Random Forest to classify the study area. We addressed the problem of sampling bias in CSP data by optimising the sampling size and implementing a spatial cross-validation scheme. According to the Random Forest model built on the finally selected data shape, more than half of the studied territory in the current climate corresponds to a suitability prediction score higher than 0.25. The forecast of habitat suitability in future climate was highly similar for all climate models. Almost the whole studied territory showed the possibility for spread with an average suitability score of 0.4. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter and precipitation of wettest month demonstrated the highest influence on the HS distribution. Thus, currently, the whole study area, excluding the north, may be considered as s territory with a high risk of HS spreading, while in the future suitable locations for the HS habitat will include high latitudes. We showed that chosen geodata pre-processing, and cross-validation based on geospatial blocks reduced significantly the sampling bias. Obtained predictions could help to assess the risks accompanying the studied plant invasion capturing the patterns of the spread, and can be used for the conservation actions planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Koldasbayeva
- Center of Life Sciences, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation, 121205.
| | - Polina Tregubova
- RAIC, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation, 121205
| | - Dmitrii Shadrin
- RAIC, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation, 121205.,Irkutsk National Research Technical University, Irkutsk, Russian Federation, 664074
| | - Mikhail Gasanov
- RAIC, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation, 121205
| | - Maria Pukalchik
- Digital Agriculture Laboratory, Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation, 121205
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14
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Thoya P, Kadagi NI, Wambiji N, Williams SM, Pepperell J, Möllmann C, Schiele KS, Maina J. Environmental controls of billfish species in the Indian Ocean and implications for their management and conservation. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13525] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Pascal Thoya
- School of Natural Sciences Macquarie University Sydney New South Wales Australia
- Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute Mombasa Kenya
- Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
- Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende (IOW) Warnemuende Germany
| | | | - Nina Wambiji
- Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute Mombasa Kenya
| | - Samuel Mackey Williams
- The Department of Agriculture and Fisheries Queensland Brisbane Australia
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Queensland St Lucia Queensland Australia
| | - Julian Pepperell
- Pepperell Research and Consulting Pty Ltd, Noosaville DC Queensland Australia
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute for Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Science Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) University of Hamburg Hamburg Germany
| | | | - Joseph Maina
- School of Natural Sciences Macquarie University Sydney New South Wales Australia
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15
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Duarte G, Branco P, Haidvogl G, Ferreira MT, Pont D, Segurado P. iPODfish - A new method to infer the historical occurrence of diadromous fish species along river networks. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 812:152437. [PMID: 34942248 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2021] [Revised: 11/29/2021] [Accepted: 12/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Available information on diadromous fish species historical occurrences is generally biased and incomplete across species distribution range and spatial scales. This work aims to establish a new methodological framework (iPODfish - Inferring Past Occurrences of Diadromous Fish) to obtain a more complete representation of the historical occurrences of diadromous fish species over their full distribution range. The iPODfish is based on assumptions, rules and thresholds derived from the interplay between freshwater network features, diadromous fish species ecology and known historical occurrence. These are used to establish historical pseudo-occurrences at the segment scale, i.e., locations where the species was most likely to be present or absent. The methodology is expressed by a tree-like representation of a stepwise, information supported, decision process. It has five steps (separating main river segments from tributary segments; accounting for segments specificities; imposing the relative distance threshold; imposing the Strahler value threshold, and; establishing the sub-basin Strahler threshold), divides into two moments of application (main river followed by the tributaries) and establishes presences, pseudo-presences and pseudo-absences. The iPODfish can deal with multiple information sources, cope with data bias and provide a reliable consistent historical occurrence output at the segment scale for the known historical geographical range of the species. Despite its inference nature, iPODfish is still a conservative procedure leading to ecologically coherent outputs that may be applied to any diadromous fish species (with a relevant amount of historical data available) in any river network throughout the globe because the concepts and definitions used are general ecological features of diadromous and freshwater networks. The method outputs are applicable in biogeographical and/or macroecological studies using historical data and may prove useful to the management and conservation of diadromous fish species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gonçalo Duarte
- Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal.
| | - Paulo Branco
- Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Gertrud Haidvogl
- Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Maria Teresa Ferreira
- Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Didier Pont
- Institute of Hydrobiology and Aquatic Ecosystem Management, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), Gregor-Mendel-Straße 33, 1180 Vienna, Austria
| | - Pedro Segurado
- Forest Research Centre, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon, Portugal
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16
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Rewilding by Wolf Recolonisation, Consequences for Ungulate Populations and Game Hunting. BIOLOGY 2022; 11:biology11020317. [PMID: 35205183 PMCID: PMC8869524 DOI: 10.3390/biology11020317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Revised: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Simple Summary Humans extirpated the wolf Canis lupus from many regions of Europe. Today, the wolf is returning to many of these areas, and with it, people’s opposition due to its predatory habits on, among others, ungulate game species. Based on existing data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size, we extrapolated the results from central Sweden and Poland to southern Sweden, where wolf recolonization has not yet occurred and conservation conflicts with hunters are expected. Thus, we calculated the proportion of moose Alces alces, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, red deer Cervus elaphus, fallow deer Dama dama and wild boar Sus scrofa that would be killed by wolves in the municipalities of southern Sweden if wolf recolonization occurs. We found that the current system of five ungulate species in southern Sweden could potentially support a wolf density two to four times higher than in the current wolf distribution in central Sweden, which are mainly inhabited by roe deer and moose. With this type of research, we can anticipate and work to ameliorate the social unrest and expected conservation conflicts that may arise once wolves or other large carnivore species recolonize areas of Europe that are returning to the wild. Abstract The ongoing recolonisations of human-transformed environments in Europe by large carnivores like the wolf Canis lupus means that conservation conflicts could re-surface, among other reasons, due to predation on ungulate game species. We estimated the effect of wolves on ungulate species using data on wolf prey selection, kill rates and territory size to build a hypothetical case of future expansion. We extrapolated results on predation from the current wolf distribution in central Sweden and eastern Poland to the eventual wolf recolonisation of southern Sweden. We then calculated the proportion of five ungulate game species killed annually by wolves, and the ratio between the predicted annual predation by wolves given future colonization and the number of ungulates currently harvested by hunters. Results showed that wolf recolonization in southern Sweden would have a minor impact on the estimated population densities of red deer Cervus elaphus, fallow deer Dama dama and wild boar Sus scrofa, but is likely to lead to a significant reduction in human captures of moose Alces alces and roe deer Capreolus capreolus. The current five-ungulate species system in southern Sweden suggests a potential for two to four times higher wolf density than the two-ungulate species system in the northern part of their current distribution. Management and conservation of recolonizing large carnivores require a better understanding of the observed impact on game populations under similar ecological conditions to ameliorate conservation conflicts and achieve a paradigm of coexistence. Integrating these predictions into management is paramount to the current rewilding trend occurring in many areas of Europe or North America.
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17
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Response of Iranian lizards to future climate change by poleward expansion, southern contraction, and elevation shifts. Sci Rep 2022; 12:2348. [PMID: 35149739 PMCID: PMC8837782 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-06330-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 01/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
This study explores the relationships between recent Iranian lizard species distributions and the observed climate, as well as potential future distributions of species. For this purpose, an ensemble of seven algorithms was used to forecast the distributions of 30 species for the recent and future (2070) based on the averages of 14 global climate models under optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) scenarios. Annual precipitation (n = 16) and annual mean temperature (n = 7) were identified as the most important variables in determining the distribution of 76.66% (23 out of 30) of the species. The consensus model predicts that the ranges of 83.33% of species (n = 25) have the potential to expand poleward at higher latitudes while preserving the majority of their recent distributions (except for four species). Furthermore, the ranges of the remaining species (n = 5) will be preserved at higher latitudes. However, they (n = 22) may contract slightly (n = 13) or excessively (n = 9) in the south of their distribution range at lower latitudes. These results indicate that species (N = 19) situated in mountainous areas such as the Zagros, Alborz, and Kopet Dagh may move or maintain their range at higher elevations as a result of future climate change. Finally, this study suggests that 30% of species (n = 9) may be threatened by future climate change and that they should be prioritized in conservation efforts.
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18
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Climate Change Increases the Expansion Risk of Helicoverpa zea in China According to Potential Geographical Distribution Estimation. INSECTS 2022; 13:insects13010079. [PMID: 35055922 PMCID: PMC8781938 DOI: 10.3390/insects13010079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 01/08/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Simple Summary Helicoverpa zea is one of the most destructive lepidopteran agricultural pests in the world and can disperse long distances both with and without human transportation. It is listed in the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China but has not yet been reported in China. On the basis of 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, we predicted the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The results showed that the PGDs of H. zea under the current climate are large in China. Future climate changes under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for both the 2030s and 2050s will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea. Helicoverpa zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to the host plants of H. zea and containers harboring this pest. Abstract Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.
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19
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McCann NP, Walberg EM, Forester JD, Schrage MW, Fulton DC, Ditmer MA. Integrating socioecological suitability with human–wildlife conflict risk: Case study for translocation of a large ungulate. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas P. McCann
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota Saint Paul MN USA
| | - Eric M. Walberg
- Illinois Natural History Survey University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign Urbana‐Champaign IL USA
| | - James D. Forester
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota Saint Paul MN USA
| | - Michael W. Schrage
- Resource Management Division Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Cloquet MN USA
| | - David C. Fulton
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota Saint Paul MN USA
- U.S. Geological Survey Minnesota Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit Saint Paul MN USA
| | - Mark A. Ditmer
- Department of Fisheries, Wildlife and Conservation Biology University of Minnesota Saint Paul MN USA
- U.S.D.A. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Ogden UT USA
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20
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Layton KKS, Bradbury IR. Harnessing the power of multi-omics data for predicting climate change response. J Anim Ecol 2021; 91:1064-1072. [PMID: 34679193 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13619] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
Predicting how species will respond to future climate change is of central importance in the midst of the global biodiversity crisis, and recent work has demonstrated the utility of population genomics for improving these predictions. Here, we suggest a broadening of the approach to include other types of genomic variants that play an important role in adaptation, like structural (e.g. copy number variants) and epigenetic variants (e.g. DNA methylation). These data could provide additional power for forecasting response, especially in weakly structured or panmictic species. Incorporating structural and epigenetic variation into estimates of climate change vulnerability, or maladaptation, may not only improve prediction power but also provide insight into the molecular mechanisms underpinning species' response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kara K S Layton
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Ian R Bradbury
- Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, St. John's, Canada
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21
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Defaunation and changes in climate and fire frequency have synergistic effects on aboveground biomass loss in the brazilian savanna. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
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22
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Harding L, Jackson A, Barnett A, Donohue I, Halsey L, Huveneers C, Meyer C, Papastamatiou Y, Semmens JM, Spencer E, Watanabe Y, Payne N. Endothermy makes fishes faster but does not expand their thermal niche. Funct Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13869] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Lucy Harding
- Trinity College Dublin Dublin Republic of Ireland
| | | | | | - Ian Donohue
- Trinity College Dublin Dublin Republic of Ireland
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Dhyani S, Bartlett D, Kadaverugu R, Dasgupta R, Pujari P, Verma P. Integrated climate sensitive restoration framework for transformative changes to sustainable land restoration. Restor Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Shalini Dhyani
- CSIR‐National Environmental Engineering Research Institute Nagpur Maharashtra 440020 India
| | - Debbie Bartlett
- University of Greenwich Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime Kent ME4 4TB UK
| | - Rakesh Kadaverugu
- CSIR‐National Environmental Engineering Research Institute Nagpur Maharashtra 440020 India
| | - Rajarshi Dasgupta
- Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2108‐11 Kanagawa 240‐0115 Japan
| | - Paras Pujari
- CSIR‐National Environmental Engineering Research Institute Nagpur Maharashtra 440020 India
| | - Parikshit Verma
- CSIR‐National Environmental Engineering Research Institute Nagpur Maharashtra 440020 India
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Monsarrat S, Novellie P, Rushworth I, Kerley G. Shifted distribution baselines: neglecting long-term biodiversity records risks overlooking potentially suitable habitat for conservation management. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374:20190215. [PMID: 31679487 PMCID: PMC6863494 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0215] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/19/2019] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Setting appropriate conservation measures to halt the loss of biodiversity requires a good understanding of species' habitat requirements and potential distribution. Recent (past few decades) ecological data are typically used to estimate and understand species' ecological niches. However, historical local extinctions may have truncated species-environment relationships, resulting in a biased perception of species' habitat preferences. This may result in incorrect assessments of the area potentially available for their conservation. Incorporating long-term (centuries-old) occurrence records with recent records may provide better information on species-environment relationships and improve the modelling and understanding of habitat suitability. We test whether neglecting long-term occurrence records leads to an underestimation of species' historical niche and potential distribution and identify which species are more vulnerable to this effect. We compare outputs of species distribution models and niche hypervolumes built using recent records only with those built using both recent and long-term (post-1500) records, for a set of 34 large mammal species in South Africa. We find that, while using recent records only is adequate for some species, adding historical records in the analyses impacts estimates of the niche and habitat suitability for 12 species (34%) in our dataset, and that this effect is significantly higher for carnivores. These results show that neglecting long-term biodiversity records in spatial analyses risks misunderstanding, and generally underestimating, species' niches, which in turn may lead to ill-informed management decisions, with significant implications for the effectiveness of conservation efforts. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Monsarrat
- Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth 6031, South Africa
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
- Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Peter Novellie
- Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth 6031, South Africa
| | - Ian Rushworth
- Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
| | - Graham Kerley
- Centre for African Conservation Ecology, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth 6031, South Africa
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Wang D, Cui B, Duan S, Chen J, Fan H, Lu B, Zheng J. Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 697:133979. [PMID: 31479906 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.133979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2019] [Revised: 08/17/2019] [Accepted: 08/17/2019] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Pedicularis kansuensis is a poisonous grass and a semi-parasitic plant that has spread rapidly in alpine grasslands in recent years and caused great harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about the habitat of P. kansuensis and the key environmental factors that influence its expansion. We assessed the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of P. kansuensis in China under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and MigClim for the years 2050 and 2070 and examined key environmental factors affecting P. kansuensis distribution. In total, 118 occurrence points and fourteen selected variables were used for the modeling. The models developed for P. kansuensis showed excellent performance (AUC > 0.9 and TSS > 0.90). The results were as follows. 1) The occupied habitats for P. kansuensis in the four climate scenarios were generally offset in the northward direction. 2) The most important environmental variables influencing the spread of P. kansuensis were altitude, annual precipitation, annual temperature range, precipitation in the warmest quarter and ultraviolet-B radiation seasonality (UVB-2). 3) Under RCP 2.6, the occupied habitat would be increased 0.04% by 2050 and would be increased to 0.51% by 2070. Under RCP 8.5, the average occupied habitat was predicted to increase 0.07% by 2050 and increase to 0.53% by 2070. The increase was relatively higher in the occupied habitats located in the southwestern regions (Sichuan, Xizang and Yunnan) than those in the northwestern regions (Gansu and Xinjiang).
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Affiliation(s)
- Dan Wang
- College of Resources & Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Bochao Cui
- College of Resources & Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Susu Duan
- College of Resources & Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Jijun Chen
- The Office for Management of Locusts and Rats, Xinjiang, China
| | - Hong Fan
- College of Resources & Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
| | - Binbin Lu
- College of Resources & Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Jianghua Zheng
- College of Resources & Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Institute of Arid Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China; Key Laboratory for Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China.
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26
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Monsarrat S, Jarvie S, Svenning JC. Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374:20190219. [PMID: 31679484 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial-interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realized and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafaunal species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'
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Affiliation(s)
- Sophie Monsarrat
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.,Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Scott Jarvie
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.,Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.,Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
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27
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Destro GFG, de Fernandes V, de Andrade AFA, De Marco P, Terribile LC. Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source-areas under climate change. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2019; 25:3242-3253. [PMID: 31306533 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14760] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2018] [Accepted: 05/01/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source-areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source-municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source-areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source-areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two different time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source-areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source-municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guilherme Fernando Gomes Destro
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Brazil
- Instituto Brasileiro do Meio Ambiente e dos Recursos Naturais Renováveis, Goiânia, Brazil
| | - Virgínia de Fernandes
- Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Brazil
| | | | - Paulo De Marco
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, Brazil
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Speed JDM, Austrheim G, Kolstad AL, Solberg EJ. Long-term changes in northern large-herbivore communities reveal differential rewilding rates in space and time. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0217166. [PMID: 31112579 PMCID: PMC6528981 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217166] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2019] [Accepted: 05/06/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Herbivores have important impacts on ecological and ecosystem dynamics. Population density and species composition are both important determinants of these impacts. Large herbivore communities are shifting in many parts of the world driven by changes in livestock management and exploitation of wild populations. In this study, we analyse changes in large herbivore community structure over 66 years in Norway, with a focus on the contribution of wildlife and livestock. We calculate metabolic biomass of all large-herbivore species across the whole region between 1949 and 2015. Temporal and spatial patterns in herbivore community change are investigated and we test hypotheses that changes in wildlife biomass are driven by competition with livestock. We find that total herbivore biomass decreased from 1949 to a minimum in 1969 due to decreases in livestock biomass. Increasing wild herbivore populations lead to an increase in total herbivore biomass by 2009. Herbivore communities have thus reverted from a livestock dominated state in 1949 (2% of large herbivore metabolic biomass comprised of wildlife species) to a state with roughly equal wildlife and livestock (48% of metabolic biomass comprised of wildlife species). Declines in livestock biomass were a modest predictor of wildlife increases, suggesting that competition with livestock has not been a major limiting factor of wild herbivore populations over the past decades. Instead there was strong geographic variation in herbivore community change, with milder lowland regions becoming more dominated by wild species, but colder mountain and northern regions remaining dominated by livestock. Our findings indicate that there has been notable rewilding of herbivore communities and herbivore-ecosystem interactions in Norway, particularly in milder lowland regions. However, Norwegian herbivores remain mostly regulated by management, and our findings call for integrated management of wild and domestic herbivores.
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Affiliation(s)
- James D. M. Speed
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
- * E-mail:
| | - Gunnar Austrheim
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Anders Lorentzen Kolstad
- Department of Natural History, NTNU University Museum, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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Serra‐Diaz JM, Franklin J. What's hot in conservation biogeography in a changing climate? Going beyond species range dynamics. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12917] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Josep M. Serra‐Diaz
- Université de Lorraine AgroParisTech, INRA, Silva Nancy France
- Department of Bioscience BIOCHANGE ‐ Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World Aarhus University Aarhus C Denmark
| | - Janet Franklin
- Department of Botany and Plant Sciences University of California Riverside Riverside California
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30
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Bakker ES, Svenning JC. Trophic rewilding: impact on ecosystems under global change. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2018; 373:rstb.2017.0432. [PMID: 30348876 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2017.0432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 41] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth S Bakker
- Department of Aquatic Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Droevendaalsesteeg 10, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jens-Christian Svenning
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.,Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
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