Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

Mapping global land conversion pressure to support conservation planning

Proactively identifying where land conversion might occur is critical to targeted and effective conservation planning. Previous efforts to map future habitat loss have largely focused on forested systems and have been limited in their consideration of drivers of loss. We developed a 1-km resolution, global map of land conversion pressure from multiple drivers, referred to as the conversion pressure index (CPI). The CPI combines past rates of anthropogenic change, as measured by temporal human modification maps, with suitability maps for potential future expansion by large-scale development. The CPI thus offers a new way to measure a cumulative gradient of anthropogenic pressure as opposed to categorical land cover change. We find that nearly 23% of land across 200 countries have relatively high conversion pressure, potentially impacting over 460 million ha of intact natural lands. We illustrate how this information can be used to identify areas for proactive conservation to avoid future loss and ensure that national commitments under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity and Paris Agreement Climate Frameworks are upheld.

Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine fishes during climate warming?

Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040-2050 and 2090-2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.

Small but irreplaceable: The conservation value of landscape remnants for urban plant diversity

The widespread decline of biodiversity due to increasing urban development raises the need to timely identify areas most relevant to the conservation of native species, particularly within cities where natural areas are extremely limited. Here, we assess the multiple role of local geomorphological features in shaping patterns and dynamics of plant diversity, with the aim of identifying conservation values and priorities in an urbanised area of Southern Italy. Based on recent and historical lists of vascular plants, we compared the floristic composition of different portions of the area by considering species' conservation value, ecological and biogeographical traits. We found that landscape remnants, accounting for 5% of the study area, harbour over 85% of the whole plant diversity and a considerable set of exclusive species. Results of Generalised Linear Mixed Models show an outstanding role of landscape remnants for the conservation of native, rare and specialised species. Based on the compositional similarities among sampled sites resulting from hierarchical clustering, these linear landscape elements also play a key role in maintaining the floristic continuity and potential connectivity throughout the urban landscape. By comparing current biodiversity patterns with data from the early XX century, we also show that the considered landscape elements are significantly more likely to host populations of declining native species, underlining their role as refugia against past and future extinctions. Taken together, our findings represent an effective framework to tackle the challenging conservation of nature in cities, namely providing a valuable approach for the identification of priority areas for the conservation of diversity within anthropogenic landscapes.

Following the niche: the differential impact of the last glacial maximum on four European ungulates

Predicting the effects of future global changes on species requires a better understanding of the ecological niche dynamics in response to climate; the large climatic fluctuations of the last 50,000 years can be used as a natural experiment to that aim. Here we test whether the realized niche of horse, aurochs, red deer, and wild boar changed between 47,000 and 7500 years ago using paleoecological modelling over an extensive archaeological database. We show that they all changed their niche, with species-specific responses to climate fluctuations. We also suggest that they survived the climatic turnovers thanks to their flexibility and by expanding their niche in response to the extinction of competitors and predators. Irrespective of the mechanism behind such processes, the fact that species with long generation times can change their niche over thousands of years cautions against assuming it to stay constant both when reconstructing the past and predicting the future.

European megafaunal ungulates living in open habitats over the last 50,000 years showed evidence for niche change, possibly driven by climatic change and extinction of competitors and predators

Clonality drives structural patterns and shapes the community assemblage of the Mediterranean Fagus sylvatica subalpine belt

Past anthropogenic disturbances lowered the altitudinal distribution of the Mediterranean Fagus sylvatica forests below 2,000 m a.s.l. Accordingly, our current understanding of the southern distribution range of F. sylvatica forests is restricted to managed stands below this elevation, neglecting relic forests growing above. This study has shed light on the structure and species assemblage of an unmanaged relict subalpine F. sylvatica stand growing within the core of its southernmost glacial refugia and at its highest species range elevation limit (2,140 m a.s.l.) in southern Apennines (Italy). Here, tree biometric attributes and understory species abundances were assessed in eight permanent plots systematically positioned from 1,650 to 2,130 m a.s.l. In the subalpine belt, F. sylvatica had formed a dense clonal stem population that was layered downward on the steepest slopes. The density and spatial aggregation of the stems were increased, while their stature and crown size were decreased. Above 2,000 m, changes in tree growth patterns, from upright single-stemmed to procumbent multi-stemmed, and canopy layer architecture, with crowns packed and closer to the floor, were allowed for the persistence of understory herbaceous species of biogeographic interest. Clonal layering represents an adaptive regeneration strategy for the subalpine belt environmental constraints not previously recognized in managed Mediterranean F. sylvatica forests. The clonal structure and unique species assemblage of this relic forest highlight the value of its inclusion in the priority areas networks, representing a long-term management strategy of emblematic glacial and microclimatic refugia.

Mapping the habitat suitability of Ottelia species in Africa

Understanding the influence of environmental covariates on plant distribution is critical, especially for aquatic plant species. Climate change is likely to alter the distribution of aquatic species. However, knowledge of this change on the burden of aquatic macroorganisms is often fraught with difficulty. Ottelia, a model genus for studying the evolution of the aquatic family Hydrocharitaceae, is mainly distributed in slow-flowing creeks, rivers, or lakes throughout pantropical regions in the world. Due to recent rapid climate changes, natural Ottelia populations have declined significantly. By modeling the effects of climate change on the distribution of Ottelia species and assessing the degree of niche similarity, we sought to identify high suitability regions and help formulate conservation strategies. The models use known background points to determine how environmental covariates vary spatially and produce continental maps of the distribution of the Ottelia species in Africa. Additionally, we estimated the possible influences of the optimistic and extreme pessimistic representative concentration pathways scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the 2050s. Our results show that the distinct distribution patterns of studied Ottelia species were influenced by topography (elevation) and climate (e.g., mean temperature of driest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the driest month). While there is a lack of accord in defining the limiting factors for the distribution of Ottelia species, it is clear that water-temperature conditions have promising effects when kept within optimal ranges. We also note that climate change will impact Ottelia by accelerating fragmentation and habitat loss. The assessment of niche overlap revealed that Ottelia cylindrica and O . verdickii had slightly more similar niches than the other Ottelia species. The present findings identify the need to enhance conservation efforts to safeguard natural Ottelia populations and provide a theoretical basis for the distribution of various Ottelia species in Africa.

Loss of Migratory Traditions Makes the Endangered Patagonian Huemul Deer a Year-Round Refugee in Its Summer Habitat

The huemul (Hippocamelus bisulcus) is endangered, with 1500 deer split into >100 subpopulations along 2000 km of Andes. Currently occupied areas are claimed-erroneously, to be critical prime habitats. We analyzed historical spatiotemporal behavior since current patterns represent only a fraction of pre-Columbian ones. Given the limited knowledge, the first group (n = 6) in Argentina was radio-marked to examine spatial behavior. Historically, huemul resided year-round in winter ranges, while some migrated seasonally, some using grasslands >200 km east of their current presence, reaching the Atlantic. Moreover, huemul anatomy is adapted to open unforested habitats, also corroborated by spotless fawns. Extreme naivety towards humans resulted in early extirpation on many winter ranges—preferentially occupied by humans, resulting in refugee huemul on surrounding mountain summer ranges. Radio-marked huemul remained in small ranges with minimal altitudinal movements, as known from other subpopulations. However, these resident areas documented here are typical summer ranges as evidenced by past migrations, and current usage for livestock. The huemul is the only cervid known to use mountain summer ranges year-round in reaction to anthropogenic activities. Losing migratory traditions is a major threat, and may explain their presently prevalent skeletal diseases, reduced longevity, and lacking recolonizations for most remaining huemul subpopulations.

The Tricky Task of Fisher-Gardener Research in Conservation Paleobiology

The study of sambaquis (ancient shell mounds) in conservation paleobiology is a complicated subject, especially when comparing body sizes of current and past mollusk valves to observe possible changes. There is a lack of information regarding how ancient fisher-gardeners collected these shellfish. Another obstacle is finding the hypothesis tests and data that can be used to compare current and past body sizes. To this end, we use the t-test (tt), Mann-Whitney (mw), and Bootstrap (bt) analyses to determine data scenarios for yellow clam (Amarilladesma mactroides) shells from two sambaquis units, and from two transects along the beaches of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil. The study finds that the average body size of an Amarilladesma mactroides adult specimen is greater in sambaquis than the current valves across all tests (tt, p = 0.0005; mw, p = 0.006; bt, p = 0.04), even after reducing the sample number. However, when the comparison is only between valves that are larger than average, this does not hold true for two of the statistics (tt, p = 0.24; mw, p = 0.04; bt, p = 0.25). By refining the comparison for recent valves from different levels in the swash zone (upper, middle, and lower levels) with the past valves, we find that body sizes only differ at the middle level of the swash zone (tt, p = 0.004; mw, p = 0.004; bt, p = 0.005), where smaller adults, recruits, and juveniles live. This result could indicate that fisher-gardeners collected large organisms at distinct levels depending on the season (i.e., adults are collected in the upper level during summer and in the lower level during winter).

Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones-distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad-scale ecosystem types-is limited. To address this gap, we used high-resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901-1920), contemporary (1979-2013), and future (2061-2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km² (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km² (42.6% of land) under "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social-ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.

A recovery network leads to the natural recolonization of an archipelago and a potential trailing edge refuge

Rapid environmental change is reshaping ecosystems and driving species loss globally. Carnivore populations have declined and retracted rapidly and have been the target of numerous translocation projects. Success, however, is complicated when these efforts occur in novel ecosystems. Identifying refuges, locations that are resistant to environmental change, within a translocation framework should improve population recovery and persistence. American martens (Martes americana) are the most frequently translocated carnivore in North America. As elsewhere, martens were extirpated across much of the Great Lakes region by the 1930s and, despite multiple translocations beginning in the 1950s, martens remain of regional conservation concern. Surprisingly, martens were rediscovered in 2014 on the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior after a putative absence of >40 yr. To identify the source of martens to the islands and understand connectivity of the reintroduction network, we collected genetic data on martens from the archipelago and from all regional reintroduction sites. In total, we genotyped 483 individual martens, 43 of which inhabited the Apostle Islands (densities 0.42-1.46 km^-2 ). Coalescent analyses supported the contemporary recolonization of the Apostle Islands with progenitors likely originating from Michigan, which were sourced from Ontario. We also identified movements by a first-order relative between the Apostle Islands and the recovery network. We detected some regional gene flow, but in an unexpected direction: individuals moving from the islands to the mainland. Our findings suggest that the Apostle Islands were naturally recolonized by progeny of translocated individuals and now act as a source back to the reintroduction sites on the mainland. We suggest that the Apostle Islands, given its protection from disturbance, complex forest structure, and reduced carnivore competition, will act as a potential refuge for marten along their trailing range boundary and a central node for regional recovery. Our work reveals that translocations, even those occurring along southern range boundaries, can create recovery networks that function like natural metapopulations. Identifying refuges, locations that are resistant to environmental change, within these recovery networks can further improve species recovery, even within novel environments. Future translocation planning should a priori identify potential refuges and sources to improve short-term recovery and long-term persistence.

Fine-scale variation in projected climate change presents opportunities for biodiversity conservation in Europe

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity, although projected changes show remarkable geographical and temporal variability. Understanding this variability allows for the identification of regions where the present-day conservation objectives may be at risk or where opportunities for biodiversity conservation emerge. We use a multi-model ensemble of regional climate models to identify areas with significantly high and low climate stability persistent throughout the twenty-first century in Europe. We then confront our predictions with the land coverage of three prominent biodiversity conservation initiatives at two scales. The continental-scale assessment shows that areas with the least stable future climate in Europe are likely to occur at low and high latitudes, with the Iberian Peninsula and the Boreal zones identified as prominent areas of low climatic stability. A follow-up regional scale investigation shows that robust climatic refugia exist even within the highly exposed southern and northern macro-regions. About 23-31% of assessed biodiversity conservation sites in Europe coincide with areas of high future climate stability, we contend that these sites should be prioritised in the formulation of future conservation priorities as the stability of future climate is one of the key factors determining their conservation prospects. Although such focus on climate refugia cannot halt the ongoing biodiversity loss, along with measures such as resilience-based stewardship, it may improve the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation under climate change.

Linking Taxonomic, Phylogenetic and Functional Plant Diversity with Ecosystem Services of Cliffs and Screes in Greece

Sparsely vegetated habitats of cliffs and screes act as refugia for many regional and local endemic specialized plant taxa most of which have evolved precisely for that type of habitat. The interplay between taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional plant diversity on rock and scree habitats of extreme environmental conditions, enlightens the relations of plant communities and ecosystems and facilitates management planning for the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. The identification of biodiversity patterns and hotspots (taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional) contributes to the integration of the ecosystem services (ES) approach for the mapping and assessment of ecosystems and their services (MAES) implementation in Greece and the creation of thematic maps based on the MAES reporting format. The overlap among the protected areas’ network revealed that almost all areas of cliffs and screes of medium, high, and very high taxonomic and phylogenetic plant endemism are included in the Natura 2000 area network. The results of this study provide the baseline information for ES assessments at sparsely vegetated land of cliffs and screes. Our results contribute to the implementation of certain indicators of the national set of MAES indicators in Greece such as (a) floristic diversity and (b) microrefugia of endemic diversity and support of decision-making.

Towards Conservation of the Remarkably High Number of Daisy Trees (Asteraceae) in Mexico

Mexico is floristically the fourth most species-rich country in the world, and Asteraceae is the most diverse vascular plant family in this country. The species exhibits a wide range of growth forms, but the tree-like habit, appropriately named daisy trees, is heavily underestimated, even though slightly different tree definitions are handled. Very little is known about their precise species number or conservation status in Mexico, so we update here the list of known Mexican daisy tree species, summarize their very diverse uses, present a general panorama of their present and future distribution, and discuss their conservation status. A bibliographic review and herbarium study were carried out, carefully curated taxonomical ocurrence maps were prepared for each species, and a climatic suitability modelling approach was used to characterise the spatial patterns of Mexican Asteraceae trees. With 149 daisy tree species, the country ranks second at a global level; within the country, their greatest diversity is found in central and western Mexico. A decrease in diversity is estimated in areas that currently host the highest species richness, whereas the hotspot regions are estimated to show an increase in species diversity, so climate change is not a threat to all Mexican daisy tree species.

SOS small pelagics: A safe operating space for small pelagic fish in the western Mediterranean Sea

Sustainable fishing practices must ensure human wellbeing by safeguarding the integrity of marine life-supporting systems. Unfortunately, a significant challenge to fisheries management is that sustainable fishing levels can decline, often synergistically, by co-occurring with climate-driven environmental stressors. Within one of the most impacted marine areas in the world, and encompassing a number of highly targeted commercial species, the small pelagic fish community of the western Mediterranean Sea has recently shown signs of collapse. In this study, we identify a worrying coincidence where fishing hotspots for the commercially valuable European sardine Sardina pilchardus and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus occur in marine areas mostly affected by climate change. To identify these areas, we overlayed detailed, spatially explicit measurements of fishing pressure with the finest-scale maps of cumulative climate change impacts onto these species. According to our results, doubly impacted marine areas largely occur in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, with climate and fisheries mostly affecting European sardine. Reducing local stressors (i.e., fishing pressure) in highly impacted areas may contribute to maintain these communities within a "safe operating space" (SOS), where they remain resilient to climate change. Accordingly, the redistribution and/or reduction of fishing intensity may alleviate pressure in those areas already affected by climate change. Sustainable fishing strategies may benefit, therefore, from the SOS concept and the spatial assessments provided in this study.

Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios

Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete’s plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete’s unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the ‘Anthropocene’ era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.

Plant Diversity Patterns and Conservation Implications under Climate-Change Scenarios in the Mediterranean: The Case of Crete (Aegean, Greece)

Climate change poses a great challenge for biodiversity conservation. Several studies exist regarding climate change’s impacts on European plants, yet none has investigated how climate change will affect the extinction risk of the entire endemic flora of an island biodiversity hotspot, with intense human disturbance. Our aim is to assess climate change’s impacts on the biodiversity patterns of the endemic plants of Crete (S Aegean) and provide a case-study upon which a climate-smart conservation planning strategy might be set. We employed a variety of macroecological analyses and estimated the current and future biodiversity, conservation and extinction hotspots in Crete. We evaluated the effectiveness of climatic refugia and the Natura 2000 network of protected areas (PAs) for protecting the most vulnerable species and identified the taxa of conservation priority based on the Evolutionary Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) index. The results revealed that high altitude areas of Cretan mountains constitute biodiversity hotspots and areas of high conservation and evolutionary value. Due to the “escalator to extinction” phenomenon, these areas are projected to become diversity “death-zones” and should thus be prioritised. Conservation efforts should be targeted at areas with overlaps among PAs and climatic refugia, characterised by high diversity and EDGE scores. This conservation-prioritisation planning will allow the preservation of evolutionary heritage, trait diversity and future ecosystem services for human well-being and acts as a pilot for similar regions worldwide.

Shifted distribution baselines: neglecting long-term biodiversity records risks overlooking potentially suitable habitat for conservation management

Setting appropriate conservation measures to halt the loss of biodiversity requires a good understanding of species' habitat requirements and potential distribution. Recent (past few decades) ecological data are typically used to estimate and understand species' ecological niches. However, historical local extinctions may have truncated species-environment relationships, resulting in a biased perception of species' habitat preferences. This may result in incorrect assessments of the area potentially available for their conservation. Incorporating long-term (centuries-old) occurrence records with recent records may provide better information on species-environment relationships and improve the modelling and understanding of habitat suitability. We test whether neglecting long-term occurrence records leads to an underestimation of species' historical niche and potential distribution and identify which species are more vulnerable to this effect. We compare outputs of species distribution models and niche hypervolumes built using recent records only with those built using both recent and long-term (post-1500) records, for a set of 34 large mammal species in South Africa. We find that, while using recent records only is adequate for some species, adding historical records in the analyses impacts estimates of the niche and habitat suitability for 12 species (34%) in our dataset, and that this effect is significantly higher for carnivores. These results show that neglecting long-term biodiversity records in spatial analyses risks misunderstanding, and generally underestimating, species' niches, which in turn may lead to ill-informed management decisions, with significant implications for the effectiveness of conservation efforts. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'