Predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 and intensive care unit admission: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Asymptomatic versus symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection: a cross-sectional seroprevalence study

BACKGROUND

Although symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection predisposes patients to develop complications, the asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection state is of public health importance being a hidden source of infection. Moreover, the asymptomatic state may camouflage the actual burden of the disease.

METHODS

Data of 1434 seropositive participants for SARS-CoV-2 spike (anti-S) and/or nucleocapsid antibodies (anti-N) were retrieved from a larger cross-sectional survey on COVID-19. Relevant data were retrieved from records including socio-demographic, medical, and behavioral characteristics of seropositive participants as well as history of COVID-19 symptoms during the last 6 months. Symptomatic/asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was categorized based on the history of the presence or absence of COVID-19 symptoms.

RESULTS

The rate of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was 34.9%. There was a statistically significant difference between symptomatic and asymptomatic participants regarding age, residence, medical conditions, habits, and infection control measures. The number of symptoms was positively correlated with anti-S titer and both were positively correlated with adult body mass index. Slum areas residence, client-facing occupation or being a healthcare worker, having lung disease, having blood group type A, never practicing exercise or social distancing, never using soap for hand washing, and minimal engagement in online working/studying were independent factors associated with the symptomatic state. Patients having less than three symptoms were less likely to be diagnosed by any means.

CONCLUSIONS

One-third of SARS-CoV-2 infections in our study were asymptomatic. This mandates applying proper measures to prevent transmission even from apparently healthy individuals. Modifiable factors associated with symptomatic infection should be controlled to reduce the risk of COVID-19 complications.

Applying fuzzy qualitative comparative analysis to identify typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection in a primary care unit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

This study aims to identify a set of symptoms that could be predictive of SARS-CoV-2 cases in the triage of Primary Care services with the contribution of Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) using Fuzzy Sets (fsQCA). A cross-sectional study was carried out in a Primary Health Care Unit/FIOCRUZ from 09/17/2020 to 05/05/2021. The study population was suspect cases that performed diagnostic tests for COVID-19. We collected information about the symptoms to identify which configurations are associated with positive and negative cases. For analysis, we used fsQCA to explain the outcomes "being a positive case" and "not being a positive case". The solution term "loss of taste or smell and no headache" showed the highest degree of association with the positive result (consistency = 0.81). The solution term "absence of loss of taste or smell combined with the absence of fever" showed the highest degree of association (consistency = 0,79) and is the one that proportionally best explains the negative result. Our results may be useful to the presumptive clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 in scenarios where access to diagnostic tests is not available. We used an innovative method used in complex problems in Public Health, the fsQCA.

Rapid COVID-19 Screening Based on Self-Reported Symptoms: Psychometric Assessment and Validation of the EPICOVID19 Short Diagnostic Scale

BACKGROUND

Confirmed COVID-19 cases have been registered in more than 200 countries, and as of July 28, 2020, over 16 million cases have been reported to the World Health Organization. This study was conducted during the epidemic peak of COVID-19 in Italy. The early identification of individuals with suspected COVID-19 is critical in immediately quarantining such individuals. Although surveys are widely used for identifying COVID-19 cases, outcomes, and associated risks, no validated epidemiological tool exists for surveying SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the capability of self-reported symptoms in discriminating COVID-19 to identify individuals who need to undergo instrumental measurements. We defined and validated a method for identifying a cutoff score.

METHODS

Our study is phase II of the EPICOVID19 Italian national survey, which launched in April 2020 and included a convenience sample of 201,121 adults who completed the EPICOVID19 questionnaire. The Phase II questionnaire, which focused on the results of nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) and serological tests, was mailed to all subjects who previously underwent NPS tests.

RESULTS

Of 2703 subjects who completed the Phase II questionnaire, 694 (25.7%) were NPS positive. Of the 472 subjects who underwent the immunoglobulin G (IgG) test and 421 who underwent the immunoglobulin M test, 22.9% (108/472) and 11.6% (49/421) tested positive, respectively. Compared to NPS-negative subjects, NPS-positive subjects had a higher incidence of fever (421/694, 60.7% vs 391/2009, 19.5%; P<.001), loss of taste and smell (365/694, 52.6% vs 239/2009, 11.9%; P<.001), and cough (352/694, 50.7% vs 580/2009, 28.9%; P<.001). With regard to subjects who underwent serological tests, IgG-positive subjects had a higher incidence of fever (65/108, 60.2% vs 43/364, 11.8%; P<.001) and pain in muscles/bones/joints (73/108, 67.6% vs 71/364, 19.5%; P<.001) than IgG-negative subjects. An analysis of self-reported COVID-19 symptom items revealed a 1-factor solution, the EPICOVID19 diagnostic scale. The following optimal scores were identified: 1.03 for respiratory problems, 1.07 for chest pain, 0.97 for loss of taste and smell 0.97, and 1.05 for tachycardia (ie, heart palpitations). These were the most important symptoms. For adults aged 18-84 years, the cutoff score was 2.56 (sensitivity: 76.56%; specificity: 68.24%) for NPS-positive subjects and 2.59 (sensitivity: 80.37%; specificity: 80.17%) for IgG-positive subjects. For subjects aged ≥60 years, the cutoff score was 1.28, and accuracy based on the presence of IgG antibodies improved (sensitivity: 88.00%; specificity: 89.58%).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a short diagnostic scale to detect subjects with symptoms that were potentially associated with COVID-19 from a wide population. Our results support the potential of self-reported symptoms in identifying individuals who require immediate clinical evaluations. Although these results come from the Italian pandemic period, this short diagnostic scale could be optimized and tested as a screening tool for future similar pandemics.

Malawi at the Crossroads: Does the Fear of Contracting COVID-19 Affect the Propensity to Vote?

The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has paralysed many sectors of human life, including economic, social-cultural and political processes. In the political arena, several countries have postponed elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Other countries, including Malawi, went ahead with their planned elections. Malawi held a presidential election at a time when the number of COVID-19 cases was increasing rapidly. In this paper, we assess the effect of the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 on willingness to vote in the Malawi presidential election that was held on 23 June 2020. Turn out in this election was ten percentage points lower than in the general elections that were held a year earlier. The paper draws on a nationally representative survey of adult Malawians (n = 1155). In our main analysis, we use instrumental variables to account for potential endogeneity. We find that nearly two thirds of Malawians thought that they were likely to catch COVID-19 at some point. Notwithstanding the COVID-19 risk, 86% of the country's citizens were willing to vote. Our analysis shows that an individual's perceived risk of catching COVID-19 is associated with a lower likelihood of voting (β = - 0.096; p < 0.05). This suggests that voter turnout in Malawi's fresh presidential election may have been highly affected by the perceived risk of catching COVID-19. The policy implication is that instituting and enforcing primary preventive measures may help reduce the perceived risk of catching COVID-19 and mitigate voter apathy.

Emerging Neurological and Psychobiological Aspects of COVID-19 Infection

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, first reported in December 2019 in China, is the causative agent of the current COVID-19 pandemic that, at the time of writing (1 November 2020) has infected almost 43 million people and caused the death of more than 1 million people. The spectrum of clinical manifestations observed during COVID-19 infection varies from asymptomatic to critical life-threatening clinical conditions. Emerging evidence shows that COVID-19 affects far more organs than just the respiratory system, including the heart, kidneys, blood vessels, liver, as well as the central nervous system (CNS) and the peripheral nervous system (PNS). It is also becoming clear that the neurological and psychological disturbances that occur during the acute phase of the infection may persist well beyond the recovery. The aim of this review is to propel further this emerging and relevant field of research related to the pathophysiology of neurological manifestation of COVID-19 infection (Neuro-COVID). We will summarize the PNS and CNS symptoms experienced by people with COVID-19 both during infection and in the recovery phase. Diagnostic and pharmacological findings in this field of study are strongly warranted to address the neurological and psychological symptoms of COVID-19.

Local response in health emergencies: key considerations for COVID-19 in informal urban settlements

This paper highlights the major challenges and considerations for addressing COVID-19 in informal settlements. It discusses what is known about vulnerabilities and how to support local protective action. There is heightened concern about informal urban settlements because of the combination of population density and inadequate access to water and sanitation, which makes standard advice about social distancing and washing hands implausible. There are further challenges to do with the lack of reliable data and the social, political and economic contexts in each setting that will influence vulnerability and possibilities for action. The potential health impacts of COVID-19 are immense in informal settlements, but if control measures are poorly executed these could also have deep negative impacts. Public health interventions must be balanced with social and economic interventions, especially in relation to the informal economy upon which many poor urban residents depend. Local residents, leaders and community-based groups must be engaged and resourced to develop locally appropriate control strategies, in partnership with local governments and authorities. Historically, informal settlements and their residents have been stigmatized, blamed, and subjected to rules and regulations that are unaffordable or unfeasible to adhere to. Responses to COVID-19 should not repeat these mistakes. Priorities for enabling effective control measures include: collaborating with local residents who have unsurpassed knowledge of relevant spatial and social infrastructures, strengthening coordination with local governments, and investing in improved data for monitoring the response in informal settlements.

Recording COVID-19 consultations: review of symptoms, risk factors, and proposed SNOMED CT terms

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need for epidemiological research in primary care to develop risk assessment processes for patients presenting with COVID-19, but lack of a standardised approach to data collection is a significant barrier to implementation.

AIM

To collate a list of relevant symptoms, assessment items, demographics, and lifestyle and health conditions associated with COVID-19, and match these data items with corresponding SNOMED CT clinical terms to support the development and implementation of consultation templates.

DESIGN & SETTING

Published and preprint literature for systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and clinical guidelines describing the symptoms, assessment items, demographics, and/or lifestyle and health conditions associated with COVID-19 and its complications were reviewed. Corresponding clinical concepts from SNOMED CT, a widely used structured clinical vocabulary for electronic primary care health records, were identified.

METHOD

Guidelines and published and unpublished reviews (N = 61) were utilised to collate a list of relevant data items for COVID-19 consultations. The NHS Digital SNOMED CT Browser was used to identify concept and descriptive identifiers. Key implementation challenges were conceptualised through a Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) lens.

RESULTS

In total, 32 symptoms, eight demographic and lifestyle features, 25 health conditions, and 20 assessment items relevant to COVID-19 were identified, with proposed corresponding SNOMED CT concepts. These data items can be adapted into a consultation template for COVID-19. Key implementation challenges include: 1) engaging with key stakeholders to achieve 'buy in'; and 2) ensuring any template is usable within practice settings.

CONCLUSION

Consultation templates for COVID-19 are needed to standardise data collection, facilitate research and learning, and potentially improve quality of care for COVID-19.

Development of a preoperative Early Warning Scoring System to identify highly suspect COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading at an unprecedented speed. Lack of resources to test every patient scheduled for surgery and false negative test results contribute to considerable stress to anesthesiologists, along with health risks to both caregivers and other patients. The study aimed to develop an early warning screening tool to rapidly detect 'highly suspect' among the patients scheduled for surgery.

METHODS

Review of literature was conducted using terms 'coronavirus' OR 'nCoV 2019' OR 'SARS-CoV-2' OR 'COVID-19' AND 'clinical characteristics' in PUBMED and MedRxiv. Suitable articles were analysed for symptoms and investigations commonly found in COVID-19 patients. Additionally, COVID-19 patient's symptomatology and investigation profiles were obtained through a survey from 20 COVID-19 facilities in India. Based on literature evidence and the survey information, an Early Warning Scoring System was developed.

RESULTS

Literature search yielded 3737 publications, of which 195 were considered relevant. Of these 195 studies, those already included in the meta-analyses were not considered for independent assessment. Based on the combined data from meta-analyses and survey, risk factors of COVID-19 disease identified were as follows: history of exposure, fever, cough, myalgias, lymphocytopaenia, elevated C-reactive protein (CRP)/lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and radiographic infiltrates.

CONCLUSION

Development of this Early Warning Scoring System for preoperative screening of patients may help in identifying 'highly suspect' COVID-19 patients, alerting the physician and other healthcare workers on the need for adequate personal protection and also to implement necessary measures to prevent cross infection and contamination during the perioperative period.

While We Wait for a Vaccine Against SARS-CoV-2, Why Not Think About Available Drugs?

At the time of reception of this article (April 2, 2020), efforts to develop a specific vaccine against SARS-Cov-2, the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), had just begun trial phase 1, but full validation of this and other current developments is likely to take many more months to reach completion. The ongoing pandemic constitutes a major health burden of world proportions that is also having a devastating impact on whole economies worldwide, the knock-on effects of which could be catastrophic especially in poorer countries. Alternative measures to ameliorate the impact and hamper or minimally slow down disease progression are urgently called for. This review discusses past and currently evolving data on the etiological agent of the current pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, and its host cell receptors with a view to disclosing alternative drugs for palliative or therapeutic approaches. Firstly, SARS-CoV-2 exhibits marked tropism for cells that harbor the membrane-bound metalloprotease angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) at their plasmalemma, predominantly in cells lining the oral cavity, upper respiratory tract, and bronchoalveolar cells, making these epithelial mucosae the most likely viral receptor cell targets and entry routes. Secondly, the crystal structures of several coronavirus spike proteins in complex with their cell host target receptors, and of SARS-Cov-2 in complex with an inhibitor, are now available at atomic resolution through X-ray diffraction and cryo-electron microscopy studies. Thirdly, viral entry of other viruses has been successfully blocked by inhibiting viral endogenous proteases or clathrin/dynamin-dependent endocytosis, the same internalization pathway followed by ACE2 and some viruses. Fourthly, the target cell-surface receptor molecules and SARS-CoV-2 possess other putative sites for drugs potentially modulating receptor activity or virus processing. A multi-pronged pharmacological approach attacking more than one flank of the viral-receptor interactions is worth considering as a front-line strategy.

Human Leukocyte Antigen Susceptibility Map for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Genetic variability across the three major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I genes (human leukocyte antigen A [HLA-A], -B, and -C genes) may affect susceptibility to and severity of the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We performed a comprehensive in silico analysis of viral peptide-MHC class I binding affinity across 145 HLA-A, -B, and -C genotypes for all SARS-CoV-2 peptides. We further explored the potential for cross-protective immunity conferred by prior exposure to four common human coronaviruses. The SARS-CoV-2 proteome was successfully sampled and was represented by a diversity of HLA alleles. However, we found that HLA-B*46:01 had the fewest predicted binding peptides for SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that individuals with this allele may be particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, as they were previously shown to be for SARS (M. Lin, H.-T. Tseng, J. A. Trejaut, H.-L. Lee, et al., BMC Med Genet 4:9, 2003, https://bmcmedgenet.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2350-4-9). Conversely, we found that HLA-B*15:03 showed the greatest capacity to present highly conserved SARS-CoV-2 peptides that are shared among common human coronaviruses, suggesting that it could enable cross-protective T-cell-based immunity. Finally, we reported global distributions of HLA types with potential epidemiological ramifications in the setting of the current pandemic.IMPORTANCE Individual genetic variation may help to explain different immune responses to a virus across a population. In particular, understanding how variation in HLA may affect the course of COVID-19 could help identify individuals at higher risk from the disease. HLA typing can be fast and inexpensive. Pairing HLA typing with COVID-19 testing where feasible could improve assessment of severity of viral disease in the population. Following the development of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, individuals with high-risk HLA types could be prioritized for vaccination.

Predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 and intensive care unit admission: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 has a varied clinical presentation. Elderly patients with comorbidities are more vulnerable to severe disease. This study identifies specific symptoms and comorbidities predicting severe COVID-19 and intensive care unit (ICU) admission.

METHODS

A literature search identified studies indexed in MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health before 5th March 2020. Two reviewers independently screened the literature and extracted data. Quality appraisal was performed using STROBE criteria. Random effects meta-analysis identified symptoms and comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 or ICU admission.

RESULTS

Seven studies (including 1813 COVID-19 patients) were included. ICU patients were older (62.4 years) than non-ICU (46 years), with a greater proportion of males. Dyspnoea was the only symptom predictive for severe disease (pOR 3.70, 95% CI 1.83-7.46) and ICU admission (pOR 6.55, 95% CI 4.28-10.0). COPD was the strongest predictive comorbidity for severe disease (pOR 6.42, 95% CI 2.44-16.9) and ICU admission (pOR 17.8, 95% CI 6.56-48.2), followed by cardiovascular disease and hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

Dyspnoea was the only symptom predictive for severe COVID-19 and ICU admission. Patients with COPD, cardiovascular disease and hypertension were at higher risk of severe illness and ICU admission.

Rate of Intensive Care Unit admission and outcomes among patients with coronavirus: A systematic review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The rate of ICU admission among patients with coronavirus varied from 3% to 100% and the mortality was as high as 86% of admitted patients. The objective of the systematic review was to investigate the rate of ICU admission, mortality, morbidity, and complications among patients with coronavirus.

METHODS

A comprehensive strategy was conducted in PubMed/Medline; Science direct and LILACS from December 2002 to May 2020 without language restriction. The Heterogeneity among the included studies was checked with forest plot, χ2 test, I2 test, and the p-values. All observational studies reporting rate of ICU admission, the prevalence of mortality and its determinants among ICU admitted patients with coronavirus were included and the rest were excluded.

RESULT

A total of 646 articles were identified from different databases and 50 articles were selected for evaluation. Thirty-seven Articles with 24983 participants were included. The rate of ICU admission was 32% (95% CI: 26 to 38, 37 studies and 32, 741 participants). The Meta-Analysis revealed that the pooled prevalence of mortality in patients with coronavirus disease in ICU was 39% (95% CI: 34 to 43, 37 studies and 24, 983 participants).

CONCLUSION

The Meta-Analysis revealed that approximately one-third of patients admitted to ICU with severe Coronavirus disease and more than thirty percent of patients admitted to ICU with a severe form of COVID-19 for better care died which warns the health care stakeholders to give attention to intensive care patients.

REGISTRATION

This Systematic review and Meta-Analysis was registered in Prospero international prospective register of systemic reviews (CRD42020177095) on April 9/2020.