Coronavirus infection and PARP expression dysregulate the NAD Metabolome: an actionable component of innate immunity

Low-dose naltrexone and NAD+ for the treatment of patients with persistent fatigue symptoms after COVID-19

A subset of patients experiences persistent fatigue symptoms after COVID-19, and patients may develop long COVID, which is characterized by lasting systemic symptoms. No treatments for this condition have been validated and are urgently warranted. In this pilot study, we assessed whether treatment with low-dose naltrexone (LDN, 4.5 mg/day) and supplementation with NAD + through iontophoresis patches could improve fatigue symptoms and quality of life in 36 patients with persistent moderate/severe fatigue after COVID-19. We detected a significant increase from baseline in SF-36 survey scores after 12 weeks of treatment (mean total SF-36 score 36.5 [SD: 15.6] vs. 52.1 [24.8]; p < 0.0001), suggestive of improvement of quality of life. Furthermore, participants scored significantly lower on the Chalder fatigue scale after 12 weeks of treatment (baseline: 25.9 [4.6], 12 weeks: 17.4 [9.7]; p < 0.0001). We found a subset of 52 % of patients to be responders after 12 weeks of treatment. Treatment was generally safe, with mild adverse events previously reported for LDN, which could be managed with dose adjustments. The iontophoresis patches were associated with mild, short-lived skin irritation in 25 % of patients. Our data suggest treatment with LDN and NAD+ is safe and may be beneficial in a subset of patients with persistent fatigue after COVID-19. Larger randomized controlled trials will have to confirm our data and determine which patient subpopulations might benefit most from this strategy.

Drug repurposing against main protease and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase of SARS-CoV-2 using molecular docking, MM-GBSA calculations and molecular dynamics

A virus called severe acute respiratory distress syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) is the causing organism of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has severely affected human life and threatened public health. The pandemic took millions of lives worldwide and caused serious negative effects on human society and the economy. SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro) and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) are interesting targets due to their crucial role in viral replication and growth. Since there is only one approved therapy for COVID-19, drug repurposing is a promising approach to finding molecules with potential activity against COVID-19 in a short time and at minimal cost. In this study, virtual screening was performed on the ChEMBL library containing 9923 FDA-approved drugs, using various docking filters with different accuracy. The best drugs with the highest docking scores were further examined for molecular dynamics (MD) studies and MM-GBSA calculations. The results of this study suggest that nadide, cangrelor and denufosol are promising potential candidates against COVID-19. Further in vitro, preclinical and clinical studies of these candidates would help to discover safe and effective anti-COVID-19 drugs.

Rationale for Nicotinamide Adenine Dinucleotide (NAD+) Metabolome Disruption as a Pathogenic Mechanism of Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome

Many acute COVID-19 convalescents experience a persistent sequelae of infection, called post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS). With incidence ranging between 31% and 69%, PACS is becoming increasingly acknowledged as a new disease state in the context of SARS-CoV-2 infection. As SARS-CoV-2 infection can affect several organ systems to varying degrees and durations, the cellular and molecular abnormalities contributing to PACS pathogenesis remain unclear. Despite our limited understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 infection promotes this persistent disease state, mitochondrial dysfunction has been increasingly recognized as a contributing factor to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and, more recently, to PACS pathogenesis. The biological mechanisms contributing to this phenomena have not been well established in previous literature; however, in this review, we summarize the evidence that NAD+ metabolome disruption and subsequent mitochondrial dysfunction following SARS-CoV-2 genome integration may contribute to PACS biological pathogenesis. We also briefly examine the coordinated and complex relationship between increased oxidative stress, inflammation, and mitochondrial dysfunction and speculate as to how SARS-CoV-2-mediated NAD+ depletion may be causing these abnormalities in PACS. As such, we present evidence supporting the therapeutic potential of intravenous administration of NAD+ as a novel treatment intervention for PACS symptom management.

Comorbidity-associated glutamine deficiency is a predisposition to severe COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations have greatly reduced COVID-19 cases, but we must continue to develop our understanding of the nature of the disease and its effects on human immunity. Previously, we suggested that a dysregulated STAT3 pathway following SARS-Co-2 infection ultimately leads to PAI-1 activation and cascades of pathologies. The major COVID-19-associated metabolic risks (old age, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and obesity) share high PAI-1 levels and could predispose certain groups to severe COVID-19 complications. In this review article, we describe the common metabolic profile that is shared between all of these high-risk groups and COVID-19. This profile not only involves high levels of PAI-1 and STAT3 as previously described, but also includes low levels of glutamine and NAD+, coupled with overproduction of hyaluronan (HA). SARS-CoV-2 infection exacerbates this metabolic imbalance and predisposes these patients to the severe pathophysiologies of COVID-19, including the involvement of NETs (neutrophil extracellular traps) and HA overproduction in the lung. While hyperinflammation due to proinflammatory cytokine overproduction has been frequently documented, it is recently recognized that the immune response is markedly suppressed in some cases by the expansion and activity of MDSCs (myeloid-derived suppressor cells) and FoxP3+ Tregs (regulatory T cells). The metabolomics profiles of severe COVID-19 patients and patients with advanced cancer are similar, and in high-risk patients, SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to aberrant STAT3 activation, which promotes a cancer-like metabolism. We propose that glutamine deficiency and overproduced HA is the central metabolic characteristic of COVID-19 and its high-risk groups. We suggest the usage of glutamine supplementation and the repurposing of cancer drugs to prevent the development of severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

NAD+ Degrading Enzymes, Evidence for Roles During Infection

Declines in cellular nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) contribute to metabolic dysfunction, increase susceptibility to disease, and occur as a result of pathogenic infection. The enzymatic cleavage of NAD⁺ transfers ADP-ribose (ADPr) to substrate proteins generating mono-ADP-ribose (MAR), poly-ADP-ribose (PAR) or O-acetyl-ADP-ribose (OAADPr). These important post-translational modifications have roles in both immune response activation and the advancement of infection. In particular, emergent data show viral infection stimulates activation of poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) mediated NAD⁺ depletion and stimulates hydrolysis of existing ADP-ribosylation modifications. These studies are important for us to better understand the value of NAD⁺ maintenance upon the biology of infection. This review focuses specifically upon the NAD⁺ utilising enzymes, discusses existing knowledge surrounding their roles in infection, their NAD⁺ depletion capability and their influence within pathogenic infection.

Reinforcing our defense or weakening the enemy? A comparative overview of defensive and offensive strategies developed to confront COVID-19

Developing effective strategies to confront coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become one of the greatest concerns of the scientific community. In addition to the vast number of global mortalities due to COVID-19, since its outbreak, almost every aspect of human lives has changed one way or another. In the present review, various defensive and offensive strategies developed to confront COVID-19 are illustrated. The Administration of immune-boosting micronutrients/agents, as well as the inhibition of the activity of incompetent gatekeepers, including some host cell receptors (e.g. ACE2) and proteases (e.g. TMPRSS2), are some efficient defensive strategies. Antibody/phage therapies and specifically vaccines also play a prominent role in the enhancement of host defense against COVID-19. Nanotechnology, however, can considerably weaken the virulence of SARS-CoV-2, utilizing fake cellular locks (compounds mimicking cell receptors) to block the viral keys (spike proteins). Generally, two strategies are developed to interfere with the binding of spike proteins to the host cell receptors, either utilizing fake cellular locks to block the viral keys or utilizing fake viral keys to block the cellular locks. Due to their evolutionary conserved nature, viral enzymes, including 3CLpro, PLpro, RdRp, and helicase are highly potential targets for drug repurposing strategy. Thus, various steps of viral replication/transcription can effectively be blocked by their inhibition, leading to the elimination of SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, RNA decoy and CRISPR technologies likely offer the best offensive strategies after viral entry into the host cells, inhibiting the viral replication/assembly in the infected cells and substantially reducing the quantity of viral progeny.

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity-and the exchange of people between regions-and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.

The Pleiotropic Function of Human Sirtuins as Modulators of Metabolic Pathways and Viral Infections

Sirtuins (SIRTs) are nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide-dependent histone deacetylases that incorporate complex functions in the mechanisms of cell physiology. Mammals have seven distinct members of the SIRT family (SIRT1-7), which play an important role in a well-maintained network of metabolic pathways that control and adapt the cell to the environment, energy availability and cellular stress. Until recently, very few studies investigated the role of SIRTs in modulating viral infection and progeny. Recent studies have demonstrated that SIRT1 and SIRT2 are promising antiviral targets because of their specific connection to numerous metabolic and regulatory processes affected during infection. In the present review, we summarize some of the recent progress in SIRTs biochemistry and their emerging function as antiviral targets. We also discuss the potential of natural polyphenol-based SIRT modulators to control their functional roles in several diseases including viral infections.

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity-and the exchange of people between regions-and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.

Role of Multiomics Data to Understand Host-Pathogen Interactions in COVID-19 Pathogenesis

Human infectious diseases are contributed equally by the host immune system's efficiency and any pathogens' infectivity. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the coronavirus strain causing the respiratory pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To understand the pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2, one needs to unravel the intricacies of host immune response to the virus, the viral pathogen's mode of transmission, and alterations in specific biological pathways in the host allowing viral survival. This review critically analyzes recent research using high-throughput "omics" technologies (including proteomics and metabolomics) on various biospecimens that allow an increased understanding of the pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. The altered biomolecule profile facilitates an understanding of altered biological pathways. Further, we have performed a meta-analysis of significantly altered biomolecular profiles in COVID-19 patients using bioinformatics tools. Our analysis deciphered alterations in the immune response, fatty acid, and amino acid metabolism and other pathways that cumulatively result in COVID-19 disease, including symptoms such as hyperglycemic and hypoxic sequelae.

ADP-ribose and analogues bound to the deMARylating macrodomain from the bat coronavirus HKU4

Macrodomains are proteins that recognize and hydrolyze ADP ribose (ADPR) modifications of intracellular proteins. Macrodomains are implicated in viral genome replication and interference with host cell immune responses. They are important to the infectious cycle of Coronaviridae and Togaviridae viruses. We describe crystal structures of the conserved macrodomain from the bat coronavirus (CoV) HKU4 in complex with ligands. The structures reveal a binding cavity that accommodates ADPR and analogs via local structural changes within the pocket. Using a radioactive assay, we present evidence of mono-ADPR (MAR) hydrolase activity. In silico analysis presents further evidence on recognition of the ADPR modification for hydrolysis. Mutational analysis of residues within the binding pocket resulted in diminished enzymatic activity and binding affinity. We conclude that the common structural features observed in the macrodomain in a bat CoV contribute to a conserved function that can be extended to other known macrodomains.

Brain tissue transcriptomic analysis of SIV-infected macaques identifies several altered metabolic pathways linked to neuropathogenesis and poly (ADP-ribose) polymerases (PARPs) as potential therapeutic targets

Despite improvements in antiretroviral therapy, human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) remain prevalent in subjects undergoing therapy. HAND significantly affects individuals' quality of life, as well as adherence to therapy, and, despite the increasing understanding of neuropathogenesis, no definitive diagnostic or prognostic marker has been identified. We investigated transcriptomic profiles in frontal cortex tissues of Simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected Rhesus macaques sacrificed at different stages of infection. Gene expression was compared among SIV-infected animals (n = 11), with or without CD8+ lymphocyte depletion, based on detectable (n = 6) or non-detectable (n = 5) presence of the virus in frontal cortex tissues. Significant enrichment in activation of monocyte and macrophage cellular pathways was found in animals with detectable brain infection, independently from CD8+ lymphocyte depletion. In addition, transcripts of four poly (ADP-ribose) polymerases (PARPs) were up-regulated in the frontal cortex, which was confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction. Our results shed light on involvement of PARPs in SIV infection of the brain and their role in SIV-associated neurodegenerative processes. Inhibition of PARPs may provide an effective novel therapeutic target for HIV-related neuropathology.

COVID-19: A Challenge to Physiology of Aging

The death toll of the current COVID-19 pandemic is strongly biased toward the elderly. COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) increases with age exponentially, its doubling time being about 7 years, irrespective of countries and epidemic stages. The same age-dependent mortality pattern known as the Gompertz law is featured by the total mortality and its main constituents attributed to cardiovascular, metabolic, neurological, and oncological diseases. Among patients dying of COVID-19, most have at least one of these conditions, whereas none is found in most of those who pass it successfully. Thus, gerontology is indispensable in dealing with the pandemic, which becomes a benchmark for validating the gerontological concepts and advances. The two basic alternative gerontological concepts imply that either aging results from the accumulation of stochastic damage, or is programmed. Based on these different grounds, several putative anti-aging drugs have been proposed as adjuvant means for COVID-19 prevention and/or treatment. These proposals are reviewed in the context of attributing the molecular targets of these drugs to the signaling pathways between the sensors of resource availability and the molecular mechanisms that allocate resources to storage, growth and reproduction or to self-maintenance and repair. Each of the drugs appears to reproduce only a part of the physiological responses to reduced resource availability caused by either dietary calories restriction or physical activity promotion, which are the most robust means of mitigating the adverse manifestations of aging. In the pathophysiological terms, the conditions of the endothelium, which worsen as age increases and may be significantly improved by the physical activity, is a common limiting factor for the abilities to withstand both physical stresses and challenges imposed by COVID-19. However, the current anti-epidemic measures promote sedentary indoor lifestyles, at odds with the most efficient behavioral interventions known to decrease the vulnerability to both the severe forms of COVID-19 and the prevalent aging-associated diseases. To achieve a proper balance in public health approaches to COVID-19, gerontologists should be involved in crosstalk between virologists, therapists, epidemiologists, and policy makers. The present publication suggests a conceptual background for that.

Coronavirus (Covid-19) sepsis: revisiting mitochondrial dysfunction in pathogenesis, aging, inflammation, and mortality

BACKGROUND

Decline in mitochondrial function occurs with aging and may increase mortality. We discuss mitochondrial contribution to Covid-19 sepsis, specifically the complex interaction of innate immune function, viral replication, hyper-inflammatory state, and HIF-α/Sirtuin pathways.

METHODS

Articles from PubMed/Medline searches were reviewed using the combination of terms "SARS-CoV-2, Covid-19, sepsis, mitochondria, aging, and immunometabolism".

RESULTS

Evidence indicates that mitochondria in senescent cells may be dysfunctional and unable to keep up with hypermetabolic demands associated with Covid-19 sepsis. Mitochondrial proteins may serve as damage-associated molecular pattern (DAMP) activating innate immunity. Disruption in normal oxidative phosphorylation pathways contributes to elevated ROS which activates sepsis cascade through HIF-α/Sirtuin pathway. Viral-mitochondrial interaction may be necessary for replication and increased viral load. Hypoxia and hyper-inflammatory state contribute to increased mortality associated with Covid-19 sepsis.

CONCLUSIONS

Aging is associated with worse outcomes in sepsis. Modulating Sirtuin activity is emerging as therapeutic agent in sepsis. HIF-α, levels of mitochondrial DNA, and other mitochondrial DAMP molecules may also serve as useful biomarker and need to be investigated. These mechanisms should be explored specifically for Covid-19-related sepsis. Understanding newly discovered regulatory mechanisms may lead to the development of novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets.

The SARS-CoV-2 conserved macrodomain is a mono-ADP-ribosylhydrolase

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other SARS-like-CoVs encode 3 tandem macrodomains within non-structural protein 3 (nsp3). The first macrodomain, Mac1, is conserved throughout CoVs, and binds to and hydrolyzes mono-ADP-ribose (MAR) from target proteins. Mac1 likely counters host-mediated anti-viral ADP-ribosylation, a posttranslational modification that is part of the host response to viral infections. Mac1 is essential for pathogenesis in multiple animal models of CoV infection, implicating it as a virulence factor and potential therapeutic target. Here we report the crystal structure of SARS-CoV-2 Mac1 in complex with ADP-ribose. SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV Mac1 exhibit similar structural folds and all 3 proteins bound to ADP-ribose with low μM affinities. Importantly, using ADP-ribose detecting binding reagents in both a gel-based assay and novel ELISA assays, we demonstrated de-MARylating activity for all 3 CoV Mac1 proteins, with the SARS-CoV-2 Mac1 protein leading to a more rapid loss of substrate compared to the others. In addition, none of these enzymes could hydrolyze poly-ADP-ribose. We conclude that the SARS-CoV-2 and other CoV Mac1 proteins are MAR-hydrolases with similar functions, indicating that compounds targeting CoV Mac1 proteins may have broad anti-CoV activity.

IMPORTANCE

SARS-CoV-2 has recently emerged into the human population and has led to a worldwide pandemic of COVID-19 that has caused greater than 900 thousand deaths worldwide. With, no currently approved treatments, novel therapeutic strategies are desperately needed. All coronaviruses encode for a highly conserved macrodomain (Mac1) that binds to and removes ADP-ribose adducts from proteins in a dynamic post-translational process increasingly recognized as an important factor that regulates viral infection. The macrodomain is essential for CoV pathogenesis and may be a novel therapeutic target. Thus, understanding its biochemistry and enzyme activity are critical first steps for these efforts. Here we report the crystal structure of SARS-CoV-2 Mac1 in complex with ADP-ribose, and describe its ADP-ribose binding and hydrolysis activities in direct comparison to SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV Mac1 proteins. These results are an important first step for the design and testing of potential therapies targeting this unique protein domain.

Mass Spectrometry Techniques in Emerging Pathogens Studies: COVID-19 Perspectives

As corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly growing public health crisis across the world, our knowledge of meaningful diagnostic tests and treatment for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) is still evolving. This novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 can be diagnosed using RT-PCR, but inadequate access to reagents, equipment, and a nonspecific target has slowed disease detection and management. Precision medicine, individualized patient care, requires suitable diagnostics approaches to tackle the challenging aspects of viral outbreaks where many tests are needed in a rapid and deployable approach. Mass spectrometry (MS)-based technologies such as proteomics, glycomics, lipidomics, and metabolomics have been applied in disease outbreaks for identification of infectious disease agents such as virus and bacteria and the molecular phenomena associated with pathogenesis. Matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF/MS) is widely used in clinical diagnostics in the United States and Europe for bacterial pathogen identification. Paper spray ionization mass spectrometry (PSI-MS), a rapid ambient MS technique, has recently open a new opportunity for future clinical investigation to diagnose pathogens. Ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography coupled high-resolution mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS)-based metabolomics and lipidomics have been employed in large-scale biomedical research to discriminate infectious pathogens and uncover biomarkers associated with pathogenesis. PCR-MS has emerged as a new technology with the capability to directly identify known pathogens from the clinical specimens and the potential to identify genetic evidence of undiscovered pathogens. Moreover, miniaturized MS offers possible applications with relatively fast, highly sensitive, and potentially portable ways to analyze for viral compounds. However, beneficial aspects of these rapidly growing MS technologies in pandemics like COVID-19 outbreaks has been limited. Hence, this perspective gives a brief of the existing knowledge, current challenges, and opportunities for MS-based techniques as a promising avenue in studying emerging pathogen outbreaks such as COVID-19.

Mechanisms governing PARP expression, localization, and activity in cells

Poly-(ADP)-ribose polymerases (PARPs) are a family of 17 enzymes in humans that have diverse roles in cell physiology including DNA damage repair, transcription, innate immunity, and regulation of signaling pathways. The modular domain architecture of PARPs gives rise to this functional diversity. PARPs catalyze the transfer of ADP-ribose from nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD⁺) to targets-proteins and poly-nucleic acids. This enigmatic post-translational modification comes in two varieties: the transfer of a single unit of ADP-ribose, known as mono-ADP-ribosylation (MARylation) or the transfer of multiple units of ADP-ribose, known as poly-ADP-ribosylation (PARylation). Emerging data shows that PARPs are regulated at multiple levels to control when and where PARP-mediated M/PARylation occurs in cells. In this review, we will discuss the latest knowledge regarding the regulation of PARPs in cells: from transcription and protein stability to subcellular localization and modulation of catalytic activity.

Why does COVID-19 disproportionately affect older people?

The severity and outcome of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) largely depends on a patient's age. Adults over 65 years of age represent 80% of hospitalizations and have a 23-fold greater risk of death than those under 65. In the clinic, COVID-19 patients most commonly present with fever, cough and dyspnea, and from there the disease can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, lung consolidation, cytokine release syndrome, endotheliitis, coagulopathy, multiple organ failure and death. Comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity increase the chances of fatal disease, but they alone do not explain why age is an independent risk factor. Here, we present the molecular differences between young, middle-aged and older people that may explain why COVID-19 is a mild illness in some but life-threatening in others. We also discuss several biological age clocks that could be used in conjunction with genetic tests to identify both the mechanisms of the disease and individuals most at risk. Finally, based on these mechanisms, we discuss treatments that could increase the survival of older people, not simply by inhibiting the virus, but by restoring patients' ability to clear the infection and effectively regulate immune responses.

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity-and the exchange of people between regions-and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.