Direct and indirect mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US, March 2020-April 2021

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on COPD Patient Mortality: A Nationwide Study in France

Objectives: We investigated the mortality patterns of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in France relative to a control population, comparing year 2020 to pre-pandemic years 2017-2019. Methods: COPD patient and sex, age and residence matched control cohorts were created from the French National Health Data System. Survival was analyzed using Cox regressions and standardized rates. Results: All-cause mortality increased in 2020 compared to 2019 in the COPD population (+4%), but to a lesser extent than in the control population (+10%). Non-COVID-19 mortality decreased to a greater extent in COPD patients (-5%) than in the controls (-2%). Death rate from COVID-19 was twice as high in the COPD population relative to the control population (547 vs. 279 per 100,000 person-years). Conclusion: The direct impact of the pandemic in terms of deaths from COVID-19 was much greater in the COPD population than in the control population. However, the larger decline in non-COVID-19 mortality in COPD patients could reflect a specific protective effect of the containment measures on this population, counterbalancing the direct impact they had been experiencing.

Inequity in mortality rates and potential years of life lost caused by COVID-19 in the Greater Santiago, Chile

Several studies have shown that, in Chile, income inequality is relevant in explaining health inequities. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had a negative impact, with higher mortality rates in those municipalities of Greater Santiago with lower socioeconomic status. We study inequity in mortality based on Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 34 urban municipalities of the Metropolitan Region (Greater Santiago) and analyze its evolution between 2018 and 2021 and by COVID-19 waves. To compare the results obtained for PYLL, we also computed the mortality rates adjusted by direct standardization. In addition, we used the concentration index (CI) to measure the health inequalities between municipalities. In the first year of the pandemic, the absolute PYLL and the standardized mortality rate for all causes of death showed an increase of 13.6% and 18.9%, respectively. Moreover, 409,086 years of life were prematurely lost in 2020, one-fifth of them due to COVID-19. The concentration indices confirm inequality in both mortality rates and PYLL, where it is more pronounced when calculating the latter measure. Results show that the deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic affected the most economically disadvantaged municipalities, and particularly young people in those places.

Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans

Background

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

Results

Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

Conclusions

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Excess Mortality Among Patients in the Veterans Affairs Health System Compared With the Overall US Population During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a substantial increase in the rate of death in the United States. It is unclear whether those who had access to comprehensive medical care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system had different death rates compared with the overall US population.

Objective

To quantify and compare the increase in death rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic between individuals who received comprehensive medical care through the VA health care system and those in the general US population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study compared 10.9 million enrollees in the VA, including 6.8 million active users of VA health care (those with a visit in the last 2 years), with the general population of the US, with deaths occurring from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted from May 17, 2021, to March 15, 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Changes in rates of death from any cause during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared with previous years. Changes in all-cause death rates by quarter were stratified by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and region, based on individual-level data. Multilevel regression models were fit in a bayesian setting. Standardized rates were used for comparison between populations.

Results

There were 10.9 million enrollees in the VA health care system and 6.8 million active users. The demographic characteristics of the VA populations were predominantly male (>85% in the VA health care system vs 49% in the general US population), older (mean [SD], 61.0 [18.2] years in the VA health care system vs 39.0 [23.1] years in the US population), and had a larger proportion of patients who were White (73% in the VA health care system vs 61% in the US population) or Black (17% in the VA health care system vs 13% in the US population). Increases in death rates were apparent across all of the adult age groups (≥25 years) in both the VA populations and the general US population. Across all of 2020, the relative increase in death rates compared with expected values was similar for VA enrollees (risk ratio [RR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]), VA active users (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]), and the general US population (RR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]). Because the prepandemic standardized mortality rates were higher in the VA populations prior to the pandemic, the absolute rates of excess mortality were higher in the VA populations.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, a comparison of excess deaths between populations suggests that active users of the VA health system had similar relative increases in mortality compared with the general US population during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Differences Between Reported COVID-19 Deaths and Estimated Excess Deaths in Counties Across the United States, March 2020 to February 2022

Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.

COVID-19 pandemic's disproportionate impact on childhood bereavement for youth of color: Reflections and recommendations

The COVID-19 pandemic devastated public welfare worldwide, bringing excess deaths connected to causes such as homicide, substance abuse, and heart disease. In the U.S., these mortality increases disproportionally impacted communities of color and contributed to a rise in bereavement among adults and children. The death of an important person is one of the most frequently reported disruptive childhood experiences. According to 2023 Childhood Bereavement Estimation Model (CBEM) results, one in 14 U.S. children will experience the death of a parent by age 18. The current study analyzes the impact of the pandemic on childhood bereavement due to parent death by comparing CBEM results for 2021 and 2020 to the average of annual results for 2016 through 2019 for combined U.S. Census race and Hispanic origin categories. Analyses demonstrate that more than 700,000 U.S. children were newly bereaved due to a parent's death in 2020 and 2021. 2020 increases were observed for each race and Hispanic origin population, ranging from 14.9% to 72.4% compared to the 2016-2019 annual average. Hispanic Asian Pacific Islander and Hispanic Black youth experienced the largest percentage increases, while non-Hispanic white youth experienced the smallest. The results contribute to the growing evidence documenting longstanding and enduring disparities in critical U.S. health outcomes based on race and Hispanic origin. Recommendations for the scale and focus of efforts to understand and address bereavement in a way that accommodates the rising need for support in diverse populations to help all bereaved children find hope and healing are offered.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the Covid-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the overall impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that is not biased by differences in testing or cause-of-death assignment. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating and mitigating factors, and inform response efforts, including allocating resources to affected communities. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,159,580 excess deaths occurred during the first two years of the pandemic (first: 620,872; second: 538,708). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties, but increased in nonmetro counties, between the first and second years of the pandemic. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeast counties, beginning in February 2021, nonmetro South counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's disproportionate impact on rural areas continues to grow.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in people with dementia without COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Significant mortality amongst vulnerable populations, such as people living with dementia, might go undetected during pandemic conditions due to refocus of care efforts. There is an urgent need to fully evaluate the pandemic impact on mortality amongst people living with dementia in order to facilitate future healthcare reforms and prevent deaths. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was any significant difference in mortality amongst people with dementia without COVID-19 during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to previous years.

Methods

A literature search was conducted in 5 databases. The relative risk ratio and confidence interval was used to estimate the change in mortality rates amongst people with dementia during the COVID-19 pandemic. The I² value was used to assess heterogeneity, publication bias, and sensitivity analyses were performed.

Results

Pooled analysis of 11 studies showed that mortality amongst people living with dementia was significantly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic for people with dementia without COVID-19. Mortality risk increased by 25% during the time period studied. Subgroup analysis was not performed due the low number of included studies.

Conclusions

The results of this study suggest that people with dementia had a significant increased mortality during the pandemic even if they did not have COVID-19. People with dementia should participate in efforts that reduce general social spread and pandemic impact on healthcare system such as vaccinations, mask mandates, and testing. These results have clinical implications as preventing direct COVID-19 infection is not enough to adequately protect people living with dementia from increased mortality. Measures to limit social spread of infections and help support patients should also be a focus for clinicians. Further research should focus on the identification of mechanisms and other explanations for increased mortality as well as contributing factors such as living in care homes and differences between countries with various pandemic strategies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03602-6.

Trends in Pregnancy-Associated Homicide, United States, 2020

Objectives. To estimate the national pregnancy-associated homicide rate in 2020 and to characterize patterns of victimization. Methods. Using a retrospective analysis of the 2020 US national mortality file, I identified all homicides of women who were pregnant or within 1 year of the end of pregnancy. Descriptive statistics characterized these victims, and I calculated annual pregnancy-associated homicide rates (deaths per 100 000 live births) for comparisons with 2018 and 2019. I estimated the added risk conferred by pregnancy in 2020 by comparing the pregnancy-associated homicide rate to homicide in the nonpregnant, nonpostpartum population of females aged 10 to 44 years. Results. There were 5.23 pregnancy-associated homicides per 100 000 live births in 2020, a notable increase from previous years. Rates were highest among adolescents and non-Hispanic Black women. Eighty percent of incidents involved firearms. The risk of homicide was 35% greater for pregnant and postpartum women than for their nonpregnant, nonpostpartum counterparts, who did not experience as large an increase from previous years. Conclusions. Pregnancy-associated homicide substantially increased in 2020. Public Health Implications. Policies to address domestic and community violence against women are urgently needed. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(9):1333-1336. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306937).