Predator responses to fire: A global systematic review and meta-analysis

Fire-driven animal evolution in the Pyrocene

Fire regimes are a major agent of evolution in terrestrial animals. Changing fire regimes and the capacity for rapid evolution in wild animal populations suggests the potential for rapid, fire-driven adaptive animal evolution in the Pyrocene. Fire drives multiple modes of evolutionary change, including stabilizing, directional, disruptive, and fluctuating selection, and can strongly influence gene flow and genetic drift. Ongoing and future research in fire-driven animal evolution will benefit from further development of generalizable hypotheses, studies conducted in highly responsive taxa, and linking fire-adapted phenotypes to their underlying genetic basis. A better understanding of evolutionary responses to fire has the potential to positively influence conservation strategies that embrace evolutionary resilience to fire in the Pyrocene.

Integrating sensory ecology and predator-prey theory to understand animal responses to fire

Fire regimes are changing dramatically worldwide due to climate change, habitat conversion, and the suppression of Indigenous landscape management. Although there has been extensive work on plant responses to fire, including their adaptations to withstand fire and long-term effects of fire on plant communities, less is known about animal responses to fire. Ecologists lack a conceptual framework for understanding behavioural responses to fire, which can hinder wildlife conservation and management. Here, we integrate cue-response sensory ecology and predator-prey theory to predict and explain variation in if, when and how animals react to approaching fire. Inspired by the literature on prey responses to predation risk, this framework considers both fire-naïve and fire-adapted animals and follows three key steps: vigilance, cue detection and response. We draw from theory on vigilance tradeoffs, signal detection, speed-accuracy tradeoffs, fear generalization, neophobia and adaptive dispersal. We discuss how evolutionary history with fire, but also other selective pressures, such as predation risk, should influence animal behavioural responses to fire. We conclude by providing guidance for empiricists and outlining potential conservation applications.

Modeling mammal response to fire based on species' traits

Fire has shaped ecological communities worldwide for millennia, but impacts of fire on individual species are often poorly understood. We performed a meta-analysis to predict which traits, habitat, or study variables and fire characteristics affect how mammal species respond to fire. We modeled effect sizes of measures of population abundance or occupancy as a function of various combinations of these traits and variables with phylogenetic least squares regression. Nine of 115 modeled species (7.83%) returned statistically significant effect sizes, suggesting most mammals are resilient to fire. The top-ranked model predicted a negative impact of fire on species with lower reproductive rates, regardless of fire type (estimate = -0.68), a positive impact of burrowing in prescribed fires (estimate = 1.46) but not wildfires, and a positive impact of average fire return interval for wildfires (estimate = 0.93) but not prescribed fires. If a species' International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment includes fire as a known or possible threat, the species was predicted to respond negatively to wildfire relative to prescribed fire (estimate = -2.84). These findings provide evidence of experts' abilities to predict whether fire is a threat to a mammal species and the ability of managers to meet the needs of fire-threatened species through prescribed fire. Where empirical data are lacking, our methods provide a basis for predicting mammal responses to fire and thus can guide conservation actions or interventions in species or communities.

Using eDNA metabarcoding to understand the effect of fire on the diet of small mammals in a woodland ecosystem

Food acquisition is a fundamental process that drives animal distribution and abundance, influencing how species respond to changing environments. Disturbances such as fire create significant shifts in available dietary resources, yet, for many species, we lack basic information about what they eat, let alone how they respond to a changing resource base. In order to create effective management strategies, faunal conservation in flammable landscapes requires a greater understanding of what animals eat and how this change following a fire. What animals eat in postfire environments has received little attention due to the time‐consuming methodologies and low‐resolution identification of food taxa. Recently, molecular techniques have been developed to identify food DNA in scats, making it possible to identify animal diets with enhanced resolution. The primary aim of this study was to utilize eDNA metabarcoding to obtain an improved understanding of the diet of three native Australian small mammal species: yellow‐footed antechinus (Antechinus flavipes), heath mouse (Pseudomys shortridgei), and bush rat (Rattus fuscipes). Specifically, we sought to understand the difference in the overall diet of the three species and how diet changed over time after fire. Yellow‐footed antechinus diets mostly consisted of moths, and plants belonging to myrtles and legume families while bush rats consumed legumes, myrtles, rushes, and beetles. Heath mouse diet was dominated by rushes. All three species shifted their diets over time after fire, with most pronounced shifts in the bush rats and least for heath mice. Identifying critical food resources for native animals will allow conservation managers to consider the effect of fire management actions on these resources and help conserve the species that use them.

Distinctive diets of eutherian predators in Australia

Introduction of the domestic cat and red fox has devastated Australian native fauna. We synthesized Australian diet analyses to identify traits of prey species in cat, fox and dingo diets, which prey were more frequent or distinctive to the diet of each predator, and quantified dietary overlap. Nearly half (45%) of all Australian terrestrial mammal, bird and reptile species occurred in the diets of one or more predators. Cat and dingo diets overlapped least (0.64 ± 0.27, n = 24 location/time points) and cat diet changed little over 55 years of study. Cats were more likely to have eaten birds, reptiles and small mammals than foxes or dingoes. Dingo diet remained constant over 53 years and constituted the largest mammal, bird and reptile prey species, including more macropods/potoroids, wombats, monotremes and bandicoots/bilbies than cats or foxes. Fox diet had greater overlap with both cats (0.79 ± 0.20, n = 37) and dingoes (0.73 ± 0.21, n = 42), fewer distinctive items (plant material, possums/gliders) and significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity over 69 years, suggesting the opportunity for prey switching (especially of mammal prey) to mitigate competition. Our study reinforced concerns about mesopredator impacts upon scarce/threatened species and the need to control foxes and cats for fauna conservation. However, extensive dietary overlap and opportunism, as well as low incidence of mesopredators in dingo diets, precluded resolution of the debate about possible dingo suppression of foxes and cats.

Fire as a driver and mediator of predator-prey interactions

Both fire and predators have strong influences on the population dynamics and behaviour of animals, and the effects of predators may either be strengthened or weakened by fire. However, knowledge of how fire drives or mediates predator–prey interactions is fragmented and has not been synthesised. Here, we review and synthesise knowledge of how fire influences predator and prey behaviour and interactions. We develop a conceptual model based on predator–prey theory and empirical examples to address four key questions: (i) how and why do predators respond to fire; (ii) how and why does prey vulnerability change post‐fire; (iii) what mechanisms do prey use to reduce predation risk post‐fire; and (iv) what are the outcomes of predator–fire interactions for prey populations? We then discuss these findings in the context of wildlife conservation and ecosystem management before outlining priorities for future research. Fire‐induced changes in vegetation structure, resource availability, and animal behaviour influence predator–prey encounter rates, the amount of time prey are vulnerable during an encounter, and the conditional probability of prey death given an encounter. How a predator responds to fire depends on fire characteristics (e.g. season, severity), their hunting behaviour (ambush or pursuit predator), movement behaviour, territoriality, and intra‐guild dynamics. Prey species that rely on habitat structure for avoiding predation often experience increased predation rates and lower survival in recently burnt areas. By contrast, some prey species benefit from the opening up of habitat after fire because it makes it easier to detect predators and to modify their behaviour appropriately. Reduced prey body condition after fire can increase predation risk either through impaired ability to escape predators, or increased need to forage in risky areas due to being energetically stressed. To reduce risk of predation in the post‐fire environment, prey may change their habitat use, increase sheltering behaviour, change their movement behaviour, or use camouflage through cryptic colouring and background matching. Field experiments and population viability modelling show instances where fire either amplifies or does not amplify the impacts of predators on prey populations, and vice versa. In some instances, intense and sustained post‐fire predation may lead to local extinctions of prey populations. Human disruption of fire regimes is impacting faunal communities, with consequences for predator and prey behaviour and population dynamics. Key areas for future research include: capturing data continuously before, during and after fires; teasing out the relative importance of changes in visibility and shelter availability in different contexts; documenting changes in acoustic and olfactory cues for both predators and prey; addressing taxonomic and geographic biases in the literature; and predicting and testing how changes in fire‐regime characteristics reshape predator–prey interactions. Understanding and managing the consequences for predator–prey communities will be critical for effective ecosystem management and species conservation in this era of global change.

Animal mortality during fire

Earth's rapidly warming climate is propelling us towards an increasingly fire-prone future. Currently, knowledge of the extent and characteristics of animal mortality rates during fire remains rudimentary, hindering our ability to predict how animal populations may be impacted in the future. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a global systematic review of the direct effects of fire on animal mortality rates, based on studies that unequivocally determined the fate of animals during fire. From 31 studies spanning 1984-2020, we extracted data on the direct impacts of fire on the mortality of 31 species from 23 families. From these studies, there were 43 instances where direct effects were measured by reporting animal survival from pre- to post-fire. Most studies were conducted in North America (52%) and Oceania (42%), focused largely on mammals (53%) and reptiles (30%), and reported mostly on animal survival in planned (82%) and/or low severity (70%) fires. We found no studies from Asia, Europe or South America. Although there were insufficient data to conduct a formal meta-analysis, we tested the effect of fire type, fire severity, fire regime, animal body mass, ecological attributes and class on survival. Only fire severity affected animal mortality, with a higher proportion of animals being killed by high than low severity fires. Recent catastrophic fires across the globe have drawn attention to the plight of animals exposed to wildfire. Yet, our systematic review suggests that a relatively low proportion of animals (mean predicted mortality [95% CI] = 3% [1%-9%]) are killed during fire. However, our review also underscores how little we currently know about the direct effects of fire on animal mortality, and highlights the critical need to understand the effects of high severity fire on animal populations.

Post-fire movements of Pacific marten (Martes caurina) depend on the severity of landscape change

BACKGROUND

Wildfires and forestry activities such as post-fire salvage logging are altering North American forests on a massive scale. Habitat change and fragmentation on forested landscapes may threaten forest specialists, such as Pacific marten (Martes caurina), that require closed, connected, and highly structured habitats. Although marten use burned landscapes, it is unclear how these animals respond to differing burn severities, or how well they tolerate additional landscape change from salvage logging.

METHODS

We used snow tracking and GPS collars to examine marten movements in three large burns in north-central Washington, USA (burned in 2006) and central British Columbia, Canada (burned in 2010 and 2017). We also assessed marten habitat use in relation to areas salvage-logged in the 2010 burn. We evaluated marten path characteristics in relation to post-fire habitat quality, including shifts in behaviour when crossing severely-disturbed habitats. Using GPS locations, we investigated marten home range characteristics and habitat selection in relation to forest cover, burn severity, and salvage logging.

RESULTS

Marten in the 2006 burn shifted from random to directed movement in areas burned at high severity; in BC, they chose highly straight paths when crossing salvage-blocks and meadows. Collared marten structured their home ranges around forest cover and burn severity, avoiding sparsely-covered habitats and selecting areas burned at low severity. Marten selected areas farther from roads in both Washington and BC, selected areas closer to water in the 2006 burn, and strongly avoided salvage-logged areas of the 2010 burn. Marten home ranges overlapped extensively, including two males tracked concurrently in the 2010 burn.

CONCLUSIONS

Areas burned at low severity provide critical habitat for marten post-fire. Encouragingly, our results indicate that both male and female marten can maintain home ranges in large burns and use a wide range of post-fire conditions. However, salvage-logged areas are not suitable for marten and may represent significant barriers to foraging and dispersal.

Resilience of terrestrial and aquatic fauna to historical and future wildfire regimes in western North America

Wildfires in many western North American forests are becoming more frequent, larger, and severe, with changed seasonal patterns. In response, coniferous forest ecosystems will transition toward dominance by fire-adapted hardwoods, shrubs, meadows, and grasslands, which may benefit some faunal communities, but not others. We describe factors that limit and promote faunal resilience to shifting wildfire regimes for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. We highlight the potential value of interspersed nonforest patches to terrestrial wildlife. Similarly, we review watershed thresholds and factors that control the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to wildfire, mediated by thermal changes and chemical, debris, and sediment loadings. We present a 2-dimensional life history framework to describe temporal and spatial life history traits that species use to resist wildfire effects or to recover after wildfire disturbance at a metapopulation scale. The role of fire refuge is explored for metapopulations of species. In aquatic systems, recovery of assemblages postfire may be faster for smaller fires where unburned tributary basins or instream structures provide refuge from debris and sediment flows. We envision that more-frequent, lower-severity fires will favor opportunistic species and that less-frequent high-severity fires will favor better competitors. Along the spatial dimension, we hypothesize that fire regimes that are predictable and generate burned patches in close proximity to refuge will favor species that move to refuges and later recolonize, whereas fire regimes that tend to generate less-severely burned patches may favor species that shelter in place. Looking beyond the trees to forest fauna, we consider mitigation options to enhance resilience and buy time for species facing a no-analog future.

Disturbance type and species life history predict mammal responses to humans

Human activity and land use change impact every landscape on Earth, driving declines in many animal species while benefiting others. Species ecological and life history traits may predict success in human-dominated landscapes such that only species with "winning" combinations of traits will persist in disturbed environments. However, this link between species traits and successful coexistence with humans remains obscured by the complexity of anthropogenic disturbances and variability among study systems. We compiled detection data for 24 mammal species from 61 populations across North America to quantify the effects of (1) the direct presence of people and (2) the human footprint (landscape modification) on mammal occurrence and activity levels. Thirty-three percent of mammal species exhibited a net negative response (i.e., reduced occurrence or activity) to increasing human presence and/or footprint across populations, whereas 58% of species were positively associated with increasing disturbance. However, apparent benefits of human presence and footprint tended to decrease or disappear at higher disturbance levels, indicative of thresholds in mammal species' capacity to tolerate disturbance or exploit human-dominated landscapes. Species ecological and life history traits were strong predictors of their responses to human footprint, with increasing footprint favoring smaller, less carnivorous, faster-reproducing species. The positive and negative effects of human presence were distributed more randomly with respect to species trait values, with apparent winners and losers across a range of body sizes and dietary guilds. Differential responses by some species to human presence and human footprint highlight the importance of considering these two forms of human disturbance separately when estimating anthropogenic impacts on wildlife. Our approach provides insights into the complex mechanisms through which human activities shape mammal communities globally, revealing the drivers of the loss of larger predators in human-modified landscapes.

Fire and Its Interactions With Other Drivers Shape a Distinctive, Semi-Arid ‘Mallee’ Ecosystem

Fire shapes ecosystems globally, including semi-arid ecosystems. In Australia, semi-arid ‘mallee’ ecosystems occur primarily across the southern part of the continent, forming an interface between the arid interior and temperate south. Mallee vegetation is characterized by short, multi-stemmed eucalypts that grow from a basal lignotuber. Fire shapes the structure and functioning of mallee ecosystems. Using the Murray Mallee region in south-eastern Australia as a case study, we examine the characteristics and role of fire, the consequences for biota, and the interaction of fire with other drivers. Wildfires in mallee ecosystems typically are large (1000s ha), burn with high severity, commonly cause top-kill of eucalypts, and create coarse-grained mosaics at a regional scale. Wildfires can occur in late spring and summer in both dry and wet years. Recovery of plant and animal communities is predictable and slow, with regeneration of eucalypts and many habitat components extending over decades. Time since the last fire strongly influences the distribution and abundance of many species and the structure of plant and animal communities. Animal species display a discrete set of generalized responses to time since fire. Systematic field studies and modeling are beginning to reveal how spatial variation in fire regimes (‘pyrodiversity’) at different scales shapes biodiversity. Pyrodiversity includes variation in the extent of post-fire habitats, the diversity of post-fire age-classes and their configuration. At regional scales, a desirable mix of fire histories for biodiversity conservation includes a combination of early, mid and late post-fire age-classes, weighted toward later seral stages that provide critical habitat for threatened species. Biodiversity is also influenced by interactions between fire and other drivers, including land clearing, rainfall, herbivory and predation. Extensive clearing for agriculture has altered the nature and impact of fire, and facilitated invasion by pest species that modify fuels, fire regimes and post-fire recovery. Given the natural and anthropogenic drivers of fire and the consequences of their interactions, we highlight opportunities for conserving mallee ecosystems. These include learning from and fostering Indigenous knowledge of fire, implementing actions that consider synergies between fire and other processes, and strategic monitoring of fire, biodiversity and other drivers to guide place-based, adaptive management under climate change.

Fire-driven landscape heterogeneity shapes habitat selection of bighorn sheep

Patterns in disturbance severity and time since fire can drive landscape heterogeneity that is critical to conservation; however, there is limited understanding of how wildlife interact with the spatial–temporal complexities of disturbance outcomes and at what scales. We conducted multiscale modeling of habitat selection for male and female Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis canadensis) over an 8-year period. We aimed to identify the spatial scales at which bighorn sheep responded to various habitat features and determine how fire severity and time since fire can shape habitat selection by bighorn sheep over different seasons and between sexes. With the exception of litter cover, spatial scales that extended beyond the finest spatial grain (i.e., a 30-m pixel) to include the surrounding landscape were better at predicting habitat selection. Escape terrain, elevation, fire severity, year, perennial and annual forb and grass cover, and shrub cover occurred in every best-supported model. Associations with escape terrain, elevation, and perennial and annual forb and grass cover varied by sex and season. In contrast, bighorn sheep were consistently positively associated with low- and high-severity fire. Females increased use of low- and high-severity burned areas with greater time since fire, while males tended to decrease use of areas that burned at high severity with greater time since fire. Our results support the importance of landscape heterogeneity created by fire severity and time since fire for Rocky Mountain bighorn sheep and reinforces calls to integrate disturbance-driven heterogeneity into our assessments and management of wildlife.

A framework of integrated research for managing introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion, Western Australia

The effective control of wild dogs, feral cats and foxes is of primary interest to land managers, both for biodiversity conservation and for the protection of livestock. Control programs primarily target single species within the context of biodiversity conservation or livestock practices, but their effectiveness in depressing predator densities is unclear because monitoring is limited or not conducted. Here, we review and discuss the outcomes of a workshop to identify research priorities for managing predation on native fauna by introduced predators in the Pilbara bioregion in Western Australia. We suggest that the control of introduced predators will be most effective if it is implemented at a landscape-scale comprising integrated predator management that considers interspecific (predator) interactions combined with standardised monitoring to measure the effectiveness and benefits of control. Four research themes were identified: (1) collation and collection of baseline data, (2) effective monitoring of introduced predators, (3) understanding functional (ecological) roles of introduced predators within the different ecosystem contexts, and (4) identifying novel complementary approaches to protect threatened species. These themes collectively include research areas that invest in foundational, ecological and alternative biological parameters in research to close knowledge gaps related to the functional roles of introduced predators in the landscape. Addressing these research themes will assist land managers to achieve outcomes that address the needs of both biodiversity conservation and pastoral production. This framework is timely given the ongoing investment in offset funding being mobilised in the region.

Ecological forecasts to inform near-term management of threats to biodiversity

Ecosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near-term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near-term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near-term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near-term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near-term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near-term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.

Mice and Habitat Complexity Attract Carnivorans to Recently Burnt Forests

Faunal responses to wildfire depend on the fire effects on direct mortality, habitat structure, and resource availability for animals. Despite the importance of large predators in terrestrial trophic webs, little is still known about how fire affects carnivorans (the mammalian order Carnivora). To evaluate the responses of the carnivoran community to fire, we studied three recently burnt forest areas in the western Mediterranean basin. Line transects were used to quantify evidence of carnivorans (mainly feces) and to measure environmental variables and resources (small mammal abundance, fleshy fruit availability, and plant cover). Throughout the study, we found 212 carnivoran field signs, 93% of them produced by red fox and stone marten. Immediately after fire, carnivoran occurrence was more frequent close to the perimeter of the burnt area, where fire severity was low, and in places with greater small mammal abundance. Small mammal abundance and plant cover had the greatest effect on the frequency of occurrence of red fox in the burnt area surroundings, and this increased with time-since-fire in the burnt area. Furthermore, the presence of red fox did not affect stone marten occurrence. Stone martens were found around the burnt area perimeter, probably because of their preference for high plant cover, and they were not significantly affected by small mammal abundance. The scat frequency of occurrence of both species was not significantly related to fleshy fruit availability. Accordingly, rodents and carnivorans were more abundant where the habitat was more complex. Our results show that the responses of some carnivorans to fire are influenced, directly and indirectly, by habitat structure and resource availability.

Whither mammalian ecology?

The critical agenda for mammalian ecologists over this century is to obtain a synthetic and predictive understanding of the factors that limit the distribution and abundance of mammals on Earth. During the last 100 years, a start has been made on this agenda, but only a start. Most mammal species have been described, but there still are tropical areas of undisclosed species richness. We have been measuring changes in distribution and abundance of many common mammals during the last century, and this monitoring agenda has become more critical as climate change has accelerated and habitat destruction has increased with human population growth. There are a small number of factors that can limit the distribution and abundance of mammals: weather, predation, food supplies, disease, and social behavior. Weather limits distribution and abundance mostly in an indirect manner by affecting food supplies, disease, and predation in the short term and habitat composition and structure in the longer term. A good starting point for all studies of mammals is to define them within a well-structured trophic web, and then quantify the major linkages within that web. We still are far from having data on enough model systems to develop a complete theory and understanding of how food webs are structured and constrained as climate shifts and humans disturb habitats. We have many of the bits and pieces for some of our major ecosystems but a poor understanding of the links and the resilience of our mammalian communities to changes in trophic webs driven by climate change and human disturbances.

Fire's impact on threat detection and risk perception among vervet monkeys: Implications for hominin evolution

The spatial behavior of primates is shaped by many factors including predation risk, the distribution of food sources, and access to water. In fire-prone settings, burning is a catalyst of change, altering the distribution of both plants and animals. Recent research has shown that primates alter their behavior in response to this change. Here, we study primates' perceived threat of predation in fire-modified landscapes. We focus on the predator-related behaviors of vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus) after controlled burning events. We compare the occurrence of vigilance and predator-deterrent behaviors, including alarm calls, scanning, and flight across different habitats and burn conditions to test the hypothesis that subjects exhibit fewer predator-specific vigilance and predator-deterrent behaviors in burned areas. The results demonstrate that predator-related behaviors occur less often in burned habitats, suggesting that predators are less common in these areas. These results provide foundations for examining hypotheses about the use of fire-altered landscapes among extinct hominins. We set these data in the context of increasing aridity, changes in burning regimes, and the emergence of pyrophilia in the human lineage.