Taming wildlife disease: bridging the gap between science and management

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

Wildlife parasitology: sample collection and processing, diagnostic constraints, and methodological challenges in terrestrial carnivores

Wild terrestrial carnivores play a crucial role as reservoir, maintenance, and spillover hosts for a wide parasite variety. They may harbor, shed, and transmit zoonotic parasites and parasites of veterinary importance for domestic hosts. Although wild carnivores are globally distributed and comprise many different species, some living in close proximity to human settlements, only a few studies have investigated parasites of wild terrestrial carnivores using non-specific techniques. Access to samples of wild carnivores may be challenging as some species are protected, and others are secretive, possibly explaining the data paucity. Considering the importance of wild carnivores' health and ecological role, combined with the lack of specific diagnostic methodologies, this review aims to offer an overview of the diagnostic methods for parasite investigation in wild terrestrial carnivores, providing the precise techniques for collection and analysis of fecal, blood, and tissue samples, the environmental impact on said samples, and the limitations researchers currently face in analyzing samples of wild terrestrial carnivores. In addition, this paper offers some crucial information on how different environmental factors affect parasite detection postmortem and how insects can be used to estimate the time of death with a specific highlight on insect larvae. The paper contains a literature review of available procedures and emphasizes the need for diagnostic method standardization in wild terrestrial carnivores.

Chemical disinfection as a simple and reliable method to control the amphibian chytrid fungus at breeding points of endangered amphibians

Chytridiomycosis caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is pushing amphibians towards extinction. Whilst mitigation methods were suggested a decade ago, we lack field trials testing their efficacy. We used the agrochemical fungicide, tebuconazole, to treat Bd infected breeding waterbodies of an endangered species that is highly susceptible to the fungus. Just two applications of tebuconazole led to a significant reduction in infection loads in the vast majority of sites, and at six sites the disinfection remained one/two-years post-application. Tebuconazole values drastically decreased in the waterbodies within a week after application, with no significant effects on their hydrochemical and hydrobiological characteristics. Although the use of chemicals in natural populations is undesirable, the growing existential threat to amphibians all over the world indicates that effective interventions in selected populations of endangered species are urgently needed.

Wildlife vaccination strategies for eliminating bovine tuberculosis in white-tailed deer populations

Many pathogens of humans and livestock also infect wildlife that can act as a reservoir and challenge disease control or elimination. Efficient and effective prioritization of research and management actions requires an understanding of the potential for new tools to improve elimination probability with feasible deployment strategies that can be implemented at scale. Wildlife vaccination is gaining interest as a tool for managing several wildlife diseases. To evaluate the effect of vaccinating white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), in combination with harvest, in reducing and eliminating bovine tuberculosis from deer populations in Michigan, we developed a mechanistic age-structured disease transmission model for bovine tuberculosis with integrated disease management. We evaluated the impact of pulse vaccination across a range of vaccine properties. Pulse vaccination was effective for reducing disease prevalence rapidly with even low (30%) to moderate (60%) vaccine coverage of the susceptible and exposed deer population and was further improved when combined with increased harvest. The impact of increased harvest depended on the relative strength of transmission modes, i.e., direct vs indirect transmission. Vaccine coverage and efficacy were the most important vaccine properties for reducing and eliminating disease from the local population. By fitting the model to the core endemic area of bovine tuberculosis in Michigan, USA, we identified feasible integrated management strategies involving vaccination and increased harvest that reduced disease prevalence in free-ranging deer. Few scenarios led to disease elimination due to the chronic nature of bovine tuberculosis. A long-term commitment to regular vaccination campaigns, and further research on increasing vaccines efficacy and uptake rate in free-ranging deer are important for disease management.

Together or Alone: Evaluating the Pathogen Inhibition Potential of Bacterial Cocktails against an Amphibian Pathogen

The amphibian fungal skin disease Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused major biodiversity losses globally. Several experimental trials have tested the use of Janthinobacterium lividum to reduce mortality due to Bd infections, usually in single-strain amendments. It is well-characterized in terms of its anti-Bd activity mechanisms. However, there are many other microbes that inhibit Bd in vitro, and not all experiments have demonstrated consistent results with J. lividum. We used a series of in vitro assays involving bacterial coculture with Bd lawns, bacterial growth tests in liquid broth, and Bd grown in bacterial cell-free supernatant (CFS) to determine: (i) which skin bacteria isolated from a locally endangered amphibian, namely, the Colorado boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas), are able to inhibit Bd growth; (ii) whether multistrain combinations are more effective than single-strains; and (iii) the mechanism behind microbe-microbe interactions. Our results indicate that there are some single strain and multistrain probiotics (especially including strains from Pseudomonas, Chryseobacterium, and Microbacterium) that are potentially more Bd-inhibitive than is J. lividum alone and that some combinations may lead to a loss of inhibition, potentially through antagonistic metabolite effects. Additionally, if J. lividum continues being developed as a wild boreal toad probiotic, we should investigate it in combination with Curvibacter CW54D, as they inhibited Bd additively and grew at a higher rate when combined than did either alone. This highlights the fact that combinations of probiotics function in variable and unpredictable ways as well as the importance of considering the potential for interactions among naturally resident host microbiota and probiotic additions. IMPORTANCE Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a pathogen that infects amphibians globally and is causing a biodiversity crisis. Our research group studies one of the species affected by Bd, namely, the Colorado boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas). Many researchers focus their studies on one probiotic bacterial isolate called Janthinobacterium lividum, which slows Bd growth in lab cultures and is currently being field tested in Colorado boreal toads. Although promising, J. lividum is not consistently effective across all amphibian individuals or species. For Colorado boreal toads, we addressed whether there are other bacterial strains that also inhibit Bd (potentially better than does J. lividum) and whether we can create two-strain probiotics that function better than do single-strain probiotics. In addition, we evaluate which types of interactions occur between two-strain combinations and what these results mean in the context of adding a probiotic to an existing amphibian skin microbiome.

A SCOPING REVIEW OF THE RANGIFER TARANDUS INFECTIOUS DISEASE LITERATURE: GAP BETWEEN INFORMATION AND APPLICATION

The role and impact of infectious diseases in wildlife population dynamics are increasingly recognized, yet disease information is variably incorporated into wildlife management frameworks. This discrepancy is particularly relevant for Rangifer tarandus (caribou or reindeer), a keystone circumarctic species experiencing widespread population declines. The primary objective of this review was to characterize the available peer-reviewed literature on infectious diseases of Rangifer by using a scoping review methodology. Three databases of peer-reviewed literature-Web of Science, BIOSIS previews, and Scopus-were searched and 695 articles met the criteria for initial review. After screening for relevance and language, 349 articles, published between 1967 and 2020, remained. More than half of the excluded articles (181/346; 52%) were left out because they were not published in English; the majority of these excluded articles (120) were in Russian. From the 349 included articles, 137 (39%) pertained to wild (as opposed to semidomesticated or captive) Rangifer populations. Articles on infectious disease in wild Rangifer were published in 40 different journals across various disciplines; the most common journals were disease and parasitology oriented, accounting for 55% of included articles. Most studies were descriptive (87%), followed by experimental (9%). Of the pathogen taxa investigated, helminths were the most common, comprising 35% of articles. Rangifer subspecies were not equally represented in the literature, with barren-ground caribou (R. t. groenlandicus; n=40) and woodland caribou (R. t. caribou; n=39) having the greatest abundance and diversity of infectious disease information available. Few studies explicitly examined individual or population-level impacts of disease, or related disease to vital population rates, and only 27 articles explicitly related results to management or conservation. Findings from this review highlight an unbalanced distribution of studies across Rangifer ecotypes, a preference for dissemination in disease-specialized publication venues, and an opportunity for investigating population-level impacts that may be more readily integrated into caribou conservation frameworks.

Context-dependent variation in persistence of host populations in the face of disease

Research Highlight: Valenzuela-Sánchez, A., Azat, C., Cunningham, A. A., Delgado, S., Bacigalupe, L. D., Beltrand, J., Serrano, J. M., Sentenac, H., Haddow, N., Toledo, V., Schmidt, B. R., & Cayuela, H. (2022). Interpopulation differences in male reproductive effort drive the population dynamics of a host exposed to an emerging fungal pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology, 00, 1- 12. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13603. Understanding the nuances of population persistence in the face of a stressor can help predict extinction risk and guide conservation actions. However, the exact mechanisms driving population stability may not always be known. In this paper, Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. (2022) integrate long-term mark-recapture data, focal measurements of reproductive effort, a population matrix model and inferences on life-history variation to reveal differences in demographic response to disease in a susceptible frog species (Rhinoderma darwinii). Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. found that demographic compensation via recruitment explained the positive population growth rate in their high disease prevalence population whereas the low disease prevalence population did not compensate and thus had decreasing population growth. Compensatory recruitment was likely due to the high probability of males brooding, and the high number of brooded larvae in the high prevalence population compared to low prevalence and disease-free populations. Valenzuela-Sánchez et al. also document faster generation times in the high prevalence population, which may indicate a faster life history that may be contributing to the population's ability to compensate for reduced survival. Lastly, the authors find a positive relationship between disease prevalence and the proportion of juveniles in a given population that suggest that there may be a threshold for disease prevalence that triggers increased reproductive effort. Altogether, their study provides novel support for increased reproductive effort as the pathway for compensatory recruitment leading to increasing population growth despite strong negative effects of disease on adult survival. Their results also caution the overgeneralization of the effects of stressors (e.g. disease) on population dynamics, where context-dependent responses may differ among host populations of a given species.

Effectiveness of antifungal treatments during chytridiomycosis epizootics in populations of an endangered frog

The recently-emerged amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has had an unprecedented impact on global amphibian populations, and highlights the urgent need to develop effective mitigation strategies. We conducted in-situ antifungal treatment experiments in wild populations of the endangered mountain yellow-legged frog during or immediately after Bd-caused mass die-off events. The objective of treatments was to reduce Bd infection intensity ("load") and in doing so alter frog-Bd dynamics and increase the probability of frog population persistence despite ongoing Bd infection. Experiments included treatment of early life stages (tadpoles and subadults) with the antifungal drug itraconazole, treatment of adults with itraconazole, and augmentation of the skin microbiome of subadults with Janthinobacterium lividum, a commensal bacterium with antifungal properties. All itraconazole treatments caused immediate reductions in Bd load, and produced longer-term effects that differed between life stages. In experiments focused on early life stages, Bd load was reduced in the 2 months immediately following treatment and was associated with increased survival of subadults. However, Bd load and frog survival returned to pre-treatment levels in less than 1 year, and treatment had no effect on population persistence. In adults, treatment reduced Bd load and increased frog survival over the entire 3-year post-treatment period, consistent with frogs having developed an effective adaptive immune response against Bd. Despite this protracted period of reduced impacts of Bd on adults, recruitment into the adult population was limited and the population eventually declined to near-extirpation. In the microbiome augmentation experiment, exposure of subadults to a solution of J. lividum increased concentrations of this potentially protective bacterium on frogs. However, concentrations declined to baseline levels within 1 month and did not have a protective effect against Bd infection. Collectively, these results indicate that our mitigation efforts were ineffective in causing long-term changes in frog-Bd dynamics and increasing population persistence, due largely to the inability of early life stages to mount an effective immune response against Bd. This results in repeated recruitment failure and a low probability of population persistence in the face of ongoing Bd infection.

Demography, education, and research trends in the interdisciplinary field of disease ecology

Micro- and macroparasites are a leading cause of mortality for humans, animals, and plants, and there is great need to understand their origins, transmission dynamics, and impacts. Disease ecology formed as an interdisciplinary field in the 1970s to fill this need and has recently rapidly grown in size and influence. Because interdisciplinary fields integrate diverse scientific expertise and training experiences, understanding their composition and research priorities is often difficult. Here, for the first time, we quantify the composition and educational experiences of a subset of disease ecology practitioners and identify topical trends in published research. We combined a large survey of self-declared disease ecologists with a literature synthesis involving machine-learning topic detection of over 18,500 disease ecology research articles. The number of graduate degrees earned by disease ecology practitioners has grown dramatically since the early 2000s. Similar to other science fields, we show that practitioners in disease ecology have diversified in the last decade in terms of gender identity and institution, with weaker diversification in race and ethnicity. Topic detection analysis revealed how the frequency of publications on certain topics has declined (e.g., HIV, serology), increased (e.g., the dilution effect, infectious disease in bats), remained relatively common (e.g., malaria ecology, influenza, vaccine research and development), or have consistently remained relatively infrequent (e.g., theoretical models, field experiments). Other topics, such as climate change, superspreading, emerging infectious diseases, and network analyses, have recently come to prominence. This study helps identify the major themes of disease ecology and demonstrates how publication frequency corresponds to emergent health and environmental threats. More broadly, our approach provides a framework to examine the composition and publication trends of other major research fields that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries.

A Landscape Epidemiological Approach for Predicting Chronic Wasting Disease: A Case Study in Virginia, US

Many infectious diseases in wildlife occur under quantifiable landscape ecological patterns useful in facilitating epidemiological surveillance and management, though little is known about prion diseases. Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal prion disease of the deer family Cervidae, currently affects white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the Mid-Atlantic United States (US) and challenges wildlife veterinarians and disease ecologists from its unclear mechanisms and associations within landscapes, particularly in early phases of an outbreak when CWD detections are sparse. We aimed to provide guidance for wildlife disease management by identifying the extent to which CWD-positive cases can be reliably predicted from landscape conditions. Using the CWD outbreak in Virginia, US from 2009 to early 2020 as a case study system, we used diverse algorithms (e.g., principal components analysis, support vector machines, kernel density estimation) and data partitioning methods to quantify remotely sensed landscape conditions associated with CWD cases. We used various model evaluation tools (e.g., AUC ratios, cumulative binomial testing, Jaccard similarity) to assess predictions of disease transmission risk using independent CWD data. We further examined model variation in the context of uncertainty. We provided significant support that vegetation phenology data representing landscape conditions can predict and map CWD transmission risk. Model predictions improved when incorporating inferred home ranges instead of raw hunter-reported coordinates. Different data availability scenarios identified variation among models. By showing that CWD could be predicted and mapped, our project adds to the available tools for understanding the landscape ecology of CWD transmission risk in free-ranging populations and natural conditions. Our modeling framework and use of widely available landscape data foster replicability for other wildlife diseases and study areas.

Zoonotic Blood-Borne Pathogens in Non-Human Primates in the Neotropical Region: A Systematic Review

Background: Understanding which non-human primates (NHPs) act as a wild reservoir for blood-borne pathogens will allow us to better understand the ecology of diseases and the role of NHPs in the emergence of human diseases in Ecuador, a small country in South America that lacks information on most of these pathogens. Methods and principal findings: A systematic review was carried out using PRISMA guidelines from 1927 until 2019 about blood-borne pathogens present in NHPs of the Neotropical region (i.e., South America and Middle America). Results: A total of 127 publications were found in several databases. We found in 25 genera (132 species) of NHPs a total of 56 blood-borne pathogens in 197 records where Protozoa has the highest number of records in neotropical NHPs (n = 128) compared to bacteria (n = 12) and viruses (n = 57). Plasmodium brasilianum and Trypanosoma cruzi are the most recorded protozoa in NHP. The neotropical primate genus with the highest number of blood-borne pathogens recorded is Alouatta sp. (n = 32). The use of non-invasive samples for neotropical NHPs remains poor in a group where several species are endangered or threatened. A combination of serological and molecular techniques is common when detecting blood-borne pathogens. Socioecological and ecological risk factors facilitate the transmission of these parasites. Finally, a large number of countries remain unsurveyed, such as Ecuador, which can be of public health importance. Conclusions and significance: NHPs are potential reservoirs of a large number of blood-borne pathogens. In Ecuador, research activities should be focused on bacteria and viruses, where there is a gap of information for neotropical NHPs, in order to implement surveillance programs with regular and effective monitoring protocols adapted to NHPs.

Reducing the Extinction Risk of Populations Threatened by Infectious Diseases

Extinction risk is increasing for a range of species due to a variety of threats, including disease. Emerging infectious diseases can cause severe declines in wild animal populations, increasing population fragmentation and reducing gene flow. Small, isolated, host populations may lose adaptive potential and become more susceptible to extinction due to other threats. Management of the genetic consequences of disease-induced population decline is often necessary. Whilst disease threats need to be addressed, they can be difficult to mitigate. Actions implemented to conserve the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), which has suffered decline to the deadly devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), exemplify how genetic management can be used to reduce extinction risk in populations threatened by disease. Supplementation is an emerging conservation technique that may benefit populations threatened by disease by enabling gene flow and conserving their adaptive potential through genetic restoration. Other candidate species may benefit from genetic management via supplementation but concerns regarding outbreeding depression may prevent widespread incorporation of this technique into wildlife disease management. However, existing knowledge can be used to identify populations that would benefit from supplementation where risk of outbreeding depression is low. For populations threatened by disease and, in situations where disease eradication is not an option, wildlife managers should consider genetic management to buffer the host species against inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity.

Continued preference for suboptimal habitat reduces bat survival with white-nose syndrome

Habitat alteration can influence suitability, creating ecological traps where habitat preference and fitness are mismatched. Despite their importance, ecological traps are notoriously difficult to identify and their impact on host–pathogen dynamics remains largely unexplored. Here we assess individual bat survival and habitat preferences in the midwestern United States before, during, and after the invasion of the fungal pathogen that causes white-nose syndrome. Despite strong selection pressures, most hosts continued to select habitats where disease severity was highest and survival was lowest, causing continued population declines. However, some individuals used refugia where survival was higher. Over time, a higher proportion of the total population used refugia than before pathogen arrival. Our results demonstrate that host preferences for habitats with high disease-induced mortality can create ecological traps that threaten populations, even in the presence of accessible refugia.

Temperature-dependent host–pathogen interactions may lead species to shift their thermal preferences under pathogen pressure. However, here the authors show that bats have not altered their microclimate preferences due to temperature-mediated mortality from white-nose syndrome, finding instead a sustained preference for warmer sites with high mortality.

Getting in Front of Chronic Wasting Disease: Model-Informed Proactive Approach for Managing an Emerging Wildlife Disease

Continuing geographic spread of chronic wasting disease (CWD) poses a serious threat to the sustainable future of cervids and hunting in North America. Moreover, CWD has been detected in captive cervids in South Korea and, in recent years, in free-ranging reindeer in Europe (Norway). Management of this disease is limited by logistical, financial, and sociopolitical considerations, and current strategies primarily focus on reducing host densities through hunter harvest and targeted culling. The success of such strategies in mitigating the spread and prevalence of CWD only upon detection is questionable. Here, we propose a proactive approach that emphasizes pre-emptive management through purposeful integration of virtual experiments (simulating alternate interventions as model scenarios) with the aim of evaluating their effectiveness. Here, we have used a published agent-based model that links white-tailed deer demography and behavior with CWD transmission dynamics to first derive a CWD outbreak trajectory and then use the trajectory to highlight issues associated with different phases of the CWD outbreak (pre-establishment/transition/endemic). Specifically, we highlight the practical constraints on surveillance in the pre-establishment phase and recommend that agencies use a realistic detection threshold for their CWD surveillance programs. We further demonstrate that many disease introductions are "dead ends" not leading to a full epidemic due to high stochasticity and harvesting in the pre-establishment phase of CWD. Model evaluated pre-emptive (pre-detection) harvest strategies could increase the resilience of the deer population to CWD spread and establishment. We conclude it is important to adaptively position CWD management ahead of, rather than behind, the CWD front.

Estimating disease prevalence and temporal dynamics using biased capture serological data in a wildlife reservoir: The example of brucellosis in Alpine ibex (Capra ibex)

The monitoring of the disease prevalence in a population is an essential component of its adaptive management. However, field data often lead to biased estimates. This is the case for brucellosis infection of ibex in the Bargy massif (France). A test-and-cull program is being carried out in this area to manage the infection: captured animals are euthanized when seropositive, and marked and released when seronegative. Because this mountainous species is difficult to capture, field workers tend to focus the capture effort on unmarked animals. Indeed, marked animals are less likely to be infected, as they were controlled and negative during previous years. As the proportion of marked animals in the population becomes large, captured animals can no longer be considered as an unbiased sample of the population. We designed an integrated Bayesian model to correct this bias, by estimating the seroprevalence in the population as the combination of the separate estimates of the seroprevalence among unmarked animals (estimated from the data) and marked animals (estimated with a catalytic infection model, to circumvent the scarcity of the data). As seroprevalence may not be the most responsive parameter to management actions, we also estimated the proportion of animals in the population with an active bacterial infection. The actual infection status of captured animals was thus inferred as a function of their age and their level of antibodies, using a model based on bacterial cultures carried out for a sample of animals. Focusing on the population of adult females in the core area of the massif, i.e. with the highest seroprevalence, this observational study shows that seroprevalence has been divided by two between 2013 (51%) and 2018 (21%). Moreover, the likely estimated proportion of actively infected females in the same population, though very imprecise, has decreased from a likely estimate of 34% to less than 15%, suggesting that the management actions have been effective in reducing infection prevalence.

Active responses to outbreaks of infectious wildlife diseases: objectives, strategies and constraints determine feasibility and success

Emerging wildlife diseases are taking a heavy toll on animal and plant species worldwide. Mitigation, particularly in the initial epidemic phase, is hindered by uncertainty about the epidemiology and management of emerging diseases, but also by vague or poorly defined objectives. Here, we use a quantitative analysis to assess how the decision context of mitigation objectives, available strategies and practical constraints influences the decision of whether and how to respond to epidemics in wildlife. To illustrate our approach, we parametrized the model for European fire salamanders affected by Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, and explored different combinations of conservation, containment and budgetary objectives. We found that in approximately half of those scenarios, host removal strategies perform equal to or worse than no management at all during a local outbreak, particularly where removal cannot exclusively target infected individuals. Moreover, the window for intervention shrinks rapidly if an outbreak is detected late or if a response is delayed. Clearly defining the decision context is, therefore, vital to plan meaningful responses to novel outbreaks. Explicitly stating objectives, strategies and constraints, if possible before an outbreak occurs, avoids wasting precious resources and creating false expectations about what can and cannot be achieved during the epidemic phase.

Handling, infectious agents and physiological condition influence survival and post-release behaviour in migratory adult coho salmon after experimental displacement

For Pacific salmon captured and released by fisheries, post-release behaviour and survival may be influenced by their health and condition at time of capture. We sought to characterize the interactions between infectious agent burden, fish immune and stress physiology and fisheries stressors to investigate the potential for capture-mediated pathogen-induced mortality in adult coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch. We used radio-telemetry paired with high-throughput qPCR of non-lethal gill biopsies for infectious agents and host biomarkers from 200 tagged fish experimentally displaced and exposed to various experimental fisheries treatments (gill net entanglement, recreational angling and recreational angling with air exposure vs. non-sampled control). We characterized relationships among post-release behaviour and survival, infectious agent presence and loads, physiological parameters and transcription profiles of stress and immune genes. All infectious agents detected were endemic and in loads consistent with previous adult Pacific salmon monitoring. Individuals exposed to fisheries treatments were less likely to reach spawning habitat compared to controls, and handling duration independent of fisheries gear had a negative effect on survival. High infectious agent burden was associated with accelerated migration initiation post-release, revealing behavioural plasticity in response to deteriorating condition in this semelparous species. Prevalence and load of infectious agents increased post-migration as well as transcription signatures reflected changes in immune and stress profiles consistent with senescence. Results from this study further our understanding of factors associated with fisheries that increase risk of post-release mortality and characterize some physiological mechanisms that underpin migratory behaviour.

Vaccination and monitoring strategies for epidemic prevention and detection in the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis)

Disease transmission and epidemic prevention are top conservation concerns for wildlife managers, especially for small, isolated populations. Previous studies have shown that the course of an epidemic within a heterogeneous host population is strongly influenced by whether pathogens are introduced to regions of relatively high or low host densities. This raises the question of how disease monitoring and vaccination programs are influenced by spatial heterogeneity in host distributions. We addressed this question by modeling vaccination and monitoring strategies for the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis), which has a history of substantial population decline due to introduced disease. We simulated various strategies to detect and prevent epidemics of rabies and canine distemper using a spatially explicit model, which was parameterized from field studies. Increasing sentinel monitoring frequency, and to a lesser degree, the number of monitored sentinels from 50 to 150 radio collared animals, reduced the time to epidemic detection and percentage of the fox population infected at the time of detection for both pathogens. Fox density at the location of pathogen introduction had little influence on the time to detection, but a large influence on how many foxes had become infected by the detection day, especially when sentinels were monitored relatively infrequently. The efficacy of different vaccination strategies was heavily influenced by local host density at the site of pathogen entry. Generally, creating a vaccine firewall far away from the site of pathogen entry was the least effective strategy. A firewall close to the site of pathogen entry was generally more effective than a random distribution of vaccinated animals when pathogens entered regions of high host density, but not when pathogens entered regions of low host density. These results highlight the importance of considering host densities at likely locations of pathogen invasion when designing disease management plans.

A Solutions-Focused Translational Research Framework for Wildlife Health

Wildlife health is of emerging relevance for conservation, human health, and domestic animal health. Increased research on wildlife health problems has not been accompanied by a relative increase in effective solutions. Translational research was developed in human health to overcome blocks impeding the development of solutions out of basic research, and a translational research framework is proposed to overcome the same barriers in wildlife health. This framework has four translational phases: problem definition, potential solution development, efficacious solution development, and effective solution development. Implementation of translational research will require a restructuring of the wildlife health research enterprise with a shift, supported by funding sources and journals, to solutions-focused research including later translational phases, the creation of more deeply integrated multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary teams incorporating better representation from human social sciences, and the inclusion of end user and stakeholder participation in all phases of research.

Quantifying the burden of managing wildlife diseases in multiple host species

Mitigation of infectious wildlife diseases is especially challenging where pathogens affect communities of multiple host species. Although most ecological studies recognize the challenge posed by multiple-species pathogens, the implications for management are typically assessed only qualitatively. Translating the intuitive understanding that multiple host species are important into practice requires a quantitative assessment of whether and how secondary host species should also be targeted by management and the effort this will require. Using a multiple-species compartmental model, we determined analytically whether and how intensively secondary host species should be managed to prevent outbreaks in focal hosts based on the reproduction number of individual host species and between-species transmission rates. We applied the model to the invasive pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in a 2-host system in northern Europe. Avoiding a disease outbreak in the focal host (fire salamanders [Salamandra salamandra]) was impossible unless management also heavily targeted the secondary host (alpine newts [Ichthyosaura alpestris]). Preventing an outbreak in the community required targeted removal of at least 80% of each species. This proportion increased to 90% in the presence of an environmental reservoir of B. salamandrivorans and when the proportion of individuals removed could not be adjusted for different host species (e.g., when using traps that are not species specific). We recommend the focus of disease-mitigation plans should shift from focal species to the community level and calculate explicitly the management efforts required on secondary host species to move beyond the simple intuitive understanding that multiple host species may all influence the system. Failure to do so may lead to underestimating the magnitude of the effort required and ultimately to suboptimal or futile management attempts.

Epidemic growth rates and host movement patterns shape management performance for pathogen spillover at the wildlife-livestock interface

Managing pathogen spillover at the wildlife-livestock interface is a key step towards improving global animal health, food security and wildlife conservation. However, predicting the effectiveness of management actions across host-pathogen systems with different life histories is an on-going challenge since data on intervention effectiveness are expensive to collect and results are system-specific. We developed a simulation model to explore how the efficacies of different management strategies vary according to host movement patterns and epidemic growth rates. The model suggested that fast-growing, fast-moving epidemics like avian influenza were best-managed with actions like biosecurity or containment, which limited and localized overall spillover risk. For fast-growing, slower-moving diseases like foot-and-mouth disease, depopulation or prophylactic vaccination were competitive management options. Many actions performed competitively when epidemics grew slowly and host movements were limited, and how management efficacy related to epidemic growth rate or host movement propensity depended on what objective was used to evaluate management performance. This framework offers one means of classifying and prioritizing responses to novel pathogen spillover threats, and evaluating current management actions for pathogens emerging at the wildlife-livestock interface. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Seasonal host life-history processes fuel disease dynamics at different spatial scales

Understanding the drivers underlying disease dynamics is still a major challenge in disease ecology, especially in the case of long-term disease persistence. Even though there is a strong consensus that density-dependent factors play an important role for the spread of diseases, the main drivers are still discussed and, more importantly, might differ between invasion and persistence periods. Here, we analysed long-term outbreak data of classical swine fever, an important disease in both wild boar and livestock, prevalent in the wild boar population from 1993 to 2000 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. We report outbreak characteristics and results from generalized linear mixed models to reveal what factors affected infection risk on both the landscape and the individual level. Spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics showed an initial wave-like spread with high incidence during the invasion period followed by a drop of incidence and an increase in seroprevalence during the persistence period. Velocity of spread increased with time during the first year of outbreak and decreased linearly afterwards, being on average 7.6 km per quarter. Landscape- and individual-level analyses of infection risk indicate contrasting seasonal patterns. During the persistence period, infection risk on the landscape level was highest during autumn and winter seasons, probably related to spatial behaviour such as increased long-distance movements and contacts induced by rutting and escaping movements. In contrast, individual-level infection risk peaked in spring, probably related to the concurrent birth season leading to higher densities, and was significantly higher in piglets than in reproductive animals. Our findings highlight that it is important to investigate both individual- and landscape-level patterns of infection risk to understand long-term persistence of wildlife diseases and to guide respective management actions. Furthermore, we highlight that exploring different temporal aggregation of the data helps to reveal important seasonal patterns, which might be masked otherwise.

BOARD INVITED REVIEW: Prospects for improving management of animal disease introductions using disease-dynamic models

Management and policy decisions are continually made to mitigate disease introductions in animal populations despite often limited surveillance data or knowledge of disease transmission processes. Science-based management is broadly recognized as leading to more effective decisions yet application of models to actively guide disease surveillance and mitigate risks remains limited. Disease-dynamic models are an efficient method of providing information for management decisions because of their ability to integrate and evaluate multiple, complex processes simultaneously while accounting for uncertainty common in animal diseases. Here we review disease introduction pathways and transmission processes crucial for informing disease management and models at the interface of domestic animals and wildlife. We describe how disease transmission models can improve disease management and present a conceptual framework for integrating disease models into the decision process using adaptive management principles. We apply our framework to a case study of African swine fever virus in wild and domestic swine to demonstrate how disease-dynamic models can improve mitigation of introduction risk. We also identify opportunities to improve the application of disease models to support decision-making to manage disease at the interface of domestic and wild animals. First, scientists must focus on objective-driven models providing practical predictions that are useful to those managing disease. In order for practical model predictions to be incorporated into disease management a recognition that modeling is a means to improve management and outcomes is important. This will be most successful when done in a cross-disciplinary environment that includes scientists and decision-makers representing wildlife and domestic animal health. Lastly, including economic principles of value-of-information and cost-benefit analysis in disease-dynamic models can facilitate more efficient management decisions and improve communication of model forecasts. Integration of disease-dynamic models into management and decision-making processes is expected to improve surveillance systems, risk mitigations, outbreak preparedness, and outbreak response activities.

Topic modeling of major research themes in disease ecology of mammals

Disease ecology is a rapidly growing subdiscipline, and mammals and their parasites feature prominently in both historical and more recent research efforts. Nevertheless, the diversity of topics explored, and those not well explored, has not been systematically assessed. We conducted a systematic review of the published scientific literature in disease ecology of mammals and subjected the collection of original and review articles identified to a topic modeling approach, which is based on the words used in the published texts and their contexts (i.e., the frequency and strength of their semantic relationships with one another). In addition to concept maps identifying the most prominent research themes, we identified eight (not mutually exclusive) subcategories of studies, including experimental, theoretical, comparative, behavioral, immunological-microbiological, biogeographic-macroecological, vector-focused (e.g., mosquitoes), and disturbance-focused. The most prominent themes arising in review papers included the ecology of zoonotic diseases transmitted from non-human mammals, comparisons of pathogen prevalence between mammalian species, and pathogen discovery-disease surveillance studies, particularly of marine mammals and bats. For the original articles, the most prominent themes included ecology of rodent-transmitted viral and bacterial diseases and the population biology of zoonotic hosts. Most studies used comparative or descriptive approaches to investigate mammal-pathogen-disease relationships at a local scale, focusing on vector-borne diseases. Experimental, modeling, immunological, and behavioral approaches were strikingly underrepresented. Topics of strong conceptual importance, but that are underrepresented in the current literature, include: 1) the effects of the population density of mammalian hosts, and manipulations of density, on pathogen transmission; 2) macroecological studies that quantify effects of mammalian host species on parasite abundance and prevalence; and 3) effects of climate change on physiological and behavioral processes relevant to mammal-parasite interactions.

Disease-structured N-mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark-recapture models can produce high-quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark-recapture techniques. Recently developed N-mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N-mixture models are a type of state-space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N-mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease-structured N-mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.

Challenges and Opportunities Developing Mathematical Models of Shared Pathogens of Domestic and Wild Animals

Diseases that affect both wild and domestic animals can be particularly difficult to prevent, predict, mitigate, and control. Such multi-host diseases can have devastating economic impacts on domestic animal producers and can present significant challenges to wildlife populations, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Few mathematical models exist that capture the complexities of these multi-host pathogens, yet the development of such models would allow us to estimate and compare the potential effectiveness of management actions for mitigating or suppressing disease in wildlife and/or livestock host populations. We conducted a workshop in March 2014 to identify the challenges associated with developing models of pathogen transmission across the wildlife-livestock interface. The development of mathematical models of pathogen transmission at this interface is hampered by the difficulties associated with describing the host-pathogen systems, including: (1) the identity of wildlife hosts, their distributions, and movement patterns; (2) the pathogen transmission pathways between wildlife and domestic animals; (3) the effects of the disease and concomitant mitigation efforts on wild and domestic animal populations; and (4) barriers to communication between sectors. To promote the development of mathematical models of transmission at this interface, we recommend further integration of modern quantitative techniques and improvement of communication among wildlife biologists, mathematical modelers, veterinary medicine professionals, producers, and other stakeholders concerned with the consequences of pathogen transmission at this important, yet poorly understood, interface.

Model recommendations meet management reality: implementation and evaluation of a network-informed vaccination effort for endangered Hawaiian monk seals

Where disease threatens endangered wildlife populations, substantial resources are required for management actions such as vaccination. While network models provide a promising tool for identifying key spreaders and prioritizing efforts to maximize efficiency, population-scale vaccination remains rare, providing few opportunities to evaluate performance of model-informed strategies under realistic scenarios. Because the endangered Hawaiian monk seal could be heavily impacted by disease threats such as morbillivirus, we implemented a prophylactic vaccination programme. We used contact networks to prioritize vaccinating animals with high contact rates. We used dynamic network models to simulate morbillivirus outbreaks under real and idealized vaccination scenarios. We then evaluated the efficacy of model recommendations in this real-world vaccination project. We found that deviating from the model recommendations decreased the efficiency; requiring 44% more vaccinations to achieve a given decrease in outbreak size. However, we gained protection more quickly by vaccinating available animals rather than waiting to encounter priority seals. This work demonstrates the value of network models, but also makes trade-offs clear. If vaccines were limited but time was ample, vaccinating only priority animals would maximize herd protection. However, where time is the limiting factor, vaccinating additional lower-priority animals could more quickly protect the population.

A Severe Ranavirus Outbreak in Captive, Wild-Caught Box Turtles

A Ranavirus outbreak in a captive population of wild-caught individuals was monitored using clinical evaluations and real-time PCR in 317 wild box turtles held in captivity during translocation. During the 2-year study period, the population experienced 71.6% mortality, suggesting that ranaviruses can rapidly attenuate populations. Wide variation in infection rate (7-94% per sampling period) was observed, which may have been driven by clearing and reinfection, adaptive immunity, or imperfect detection using noninvasive samples. Only nasal clinical signs were significantly related to infection status, and agreement among sample types was low. Subsequent to the initial outbreak, low mortality but high real-time PCR prevalence of Ranavirus was observed, suggesting that surviving individuals might be tolerant.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Genomic Epidemiology and Management of Salmonella in Island Ecosystems Used for Takahe Conservation

Translocation and isolation of threatened wildlife in new environments may have unforeseen consequences on pathogen transmission and evolution in host populations. Disease threats associated with intensive conservation management of wildlife remain speculative without gaining an understanding of pathogen dynamics in meta-populations and how location attributes may determine pathogen prevalence. We determined the prevalence and population structure of an opportunistic pathogen, Salmonella, in geographically isolated translocated sub-populations of an endangered New Zealand flightless bird, the takahe (Porphyrio hochstetteri). Out of the nine sub-populations tested, Salmonella was only isolated from takahe living on one private island. The apparent prevalence of Salmonella in takahe on the private island was 32% (95% CI 13-57%), with two serotypes, Salmonella Mississippi and Salmonella houtenae 40:gt-, identified. Epidemiological investigation of reservoirs on the private island and another island occupied by takahe identified environmental and reptile sources of S. Mississippi and S. houtenae 40:gt- on the private island. Single nucleotide polymorphism analysis of core genomes revealed low-level diversity among isolates belonging to the same serotype and little differentiation according to host and environmental source. The pattern observed may be representative of transmission between sympatric hosts and environmental sources, the presence of a common unsampled source, and/or evidence of a recent introduction into the ecosystem. This study highlights how genomic epidemiology can be used to ascertain and understand disease dynamics to inform the management of disease threats in endangered wildlife populations.