Forest damage by deer depends on cross‐scale interactions between climate, deer density and landscape structure

Understanding 'it depends' in ecology: a guide to hypothesising, visualising and interpreting statistical interactions

Ecologists routinely use statistical models to detect and explain interactions among ecological drivers, with a goal to evaluate whether an effect of interest changes in sign or magnitude in different contexts. Two fundamental properties of interactions are often overlooked during the process of hypothesising, visualising and interpreting interactions between drivers: the measurement scale - whether a response is analysed on an additive or multiplicative scale, such as a ratio or logarithmic scale; and the symmetry - whether dependencies are considered in both directions. Overlooking these properties can lead to one or more of three inferential errors: misinterpretation of (i) the detection and magnitude (Type-D error), and (ii) the sign of effect modification (Type-S error); and (iii) misidentification of the underlying processes (Type-A error). We illustrate each of these errors with a broad range of ecological questions applied to empirical and simulated data sets. We demonstrate how meta-analysis, a widely used approach that seeks explicitly to characterise context dependence, is especially prone to all three errors. Based on these insights, we propose guidelines to improve hypothesis generation, testing, visualisation and interpretation of interactions in ecology.

Long-term exclusion of invasive ungulates alters tree recruitment and functional traits but not total forest carbon

Forests are major carbon (C) sinks, but their ability to sequester C and thus mitigate climate change, varies with the environment, disturbance regime, and biotic interactions. Herbivory by invasive, nonnative ungulates can have profound ecosystem effects, yet its consequences for forest C stocks remain poorly understood. We determined the impact of invasive ungulates on C pools, both above- and belowground (to 30 cm), and on forest structure and diversity using 26 paired long-term (>20 years) ungulate exclosures and adjacent unfenced control plots located in native temperate rainforests across New Zealand, spanning 36-41° S. Total ecosystem C was similar between ungulate exclosure (299.93 ± 25.94 Mg C ha^-1 ) and unfenced control (324.60 ± 38.39 Mg C ha^-1 ) plots. Most (60%) variation in total ecosystem C was explained by the biomass of the largest tree (mean diameter at breast height [dbh]: 88 cm) within each plot. Ungulate exclusion increased the abundance and diversity of saplings and small trees (dbh ≥2.5, <10 cm) compared with unfenced controls, but these accounted for ~5% of total ecosystem C, demonstrating that a few, large trees dominate the total forest ecosystem C but are unaffected by invasive ungulates at a timescale of 20-50 years. However, changes in understory C pools, species composition, and functional diversity did occur following long-term ungulate exclusion. Our findings suggest that, although the removal of invasive herbivores may not affect total forest C at the decadal scale, major shifts in the diversity and composition of regenerating species will have longer term consequences for ecosystem processes and forest C.

Environmental factors and gut microbiota: Toward better conservation of deer species

Thousands of microbial species inhabiting the animal gut, collectively known as the gut microbiota, play many specific roles related to host nutrient metabolism and absorption, immune regulation, and protection from pathogenic bacteria. Gut microbiota composition is affected by several internal and external factors, such as the host genotype, dietary intake, breeding environment, and antibiotic exposure. As deer species are important members for maintaining ecosystem balance, understanding the effects of multiple factors on the gut microbiota of deer species, particularly endangered ones, is crucial. In this review, we summarize and discuss the factors that significantly affect the gut microbiota of deer and present the impacts of these factors on microbial composition. In particular, we focused on the changes in gut microbiota due to dietary differences under different conditions, including seasonal changes, different geographical locations, and captivity, as well as weaning and pathogen disturbance. Understanding the correlations between gut microbiota composition and its driving factors is important for evaluating and improving the captive breeding environment for better conservation of endangered deer species, and reintroducing wild deer populations in the future.

Moth declines are most severe in broadleaf woodlands despite a net gain in habitat availability

While agricultural intensification and habitat loss are cited as key drivers of moth decline, these alone cannot explain declines observed in UK woodlands - a habitat that has expanded in area since 1968.We quantified how moth communities changed across habitats and regions and determined how species traits interacted with habitat in predicting moth abundance change. We hypothesised that, in woodlands, species more vulnerable to shading and browsing by deer (species specialising on forbs, shrubs and shade-intolerant plants) had declined more severely than other species, and that moth decline in woodlands was more severe at sites more susceptible to deer damage.We modelled abundance, biomass, species richness and diversity from 1968 to 2016 and explored how these interacted with habitat and region. We also modelled the interaction between habitat and two moth species traits: larval feeding guild and shade-tolerance of hostplant.Moth declines were consistently highest in broadleaf woodland. Abundance, biomass, species richness and diversity declined significantly by -51%, -52%, -14% and -15% in woodlands, respectively, compared to national trends of -34%, -39%, -1% (non-significant) and +10%. Declines were no greater in woodlands more susceptible to deer browsing damage. Traits based analysis found no evidence that shading and intensive browsing by deer explained moth declines in woodland.Moth decline was more severe in broadleaf woodlands than in intensively managed farmlands. We found no evidence that deer browsing or increased shading has driven these trends: the primary cause of the decline of moths in woodlands remains unclear.

The effects of population management on wild ungulates: A systematic map of evidence for UK species

INTRODUCTION

Over recent decades, the abundance and geographic ranges of wild ungulate species have expanded in many parts of Europe, including the UK. Populations are managed to mitigate their ecological impacts using interventions, such as shooting, fencing and administering contraception. Predicting how target species will respond to interventions is critical for developing sustainable, effective and efficient management strategies. However, the quantity and quality of evidence of the effects of interventions on ungulate species is unclear. To address this, we systematically mapped research on the effects of population management on wild ungulate species resident in the UK.

METHODS

We searched four bibliographic databases, Google Scholar and nine organisational websites using search terms tested with a library of 30 relevant articles. Worldwide published peer-reviewed articles were considered, supplemented by 'grey' literature from UK-based sources. Three reviewers identified and screened articles for eligibility at title, abstract and full-text levels, based on predefined criteria. Data and metadata were extracted and summarised in a narrative synthesis supported by structured graphical matrices.

RESULTS

A total of 123 articles were included in the systematic map. Lethal interventions were better represented (85%, n = 105) than non-lethal interventions (25%, n = 25). Outcomes related to demography and behaviour were reported in 95% of articles (n = 117), whereas effects on health, physiology and morphology were studied in only 11% of articles (n = 14). Well-studied species included wild pigs (n = 58), red deer (n = 28) and roe deer (n = 23).

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence for the effects of population management on wild ungulate species is growing but currently limited and unevenly distributed across intervention types, outcomes and species. Priorities for primary research include: species responses to non-lethal interventions, the side-effects of shooting and studies on sika deer and Chinese muntjac. Shooting is the only intervention for which sufficient evidence exists for systematic review or meta-analysis.

The Importance of Scale and the MAUP for Robust Ecosystem Service Evaluations and Landscape Decisions

Spatial data are used in many scientific domains including analyses of Ecosystem Services (ES) and Natural Capital (NC), with results used to inform planning and policy. However, the data spatial scale (or support) has a fundamental impact on analysis outputs and, thus, process understanding and inference. The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) describes the effects of scale on analyses of spatial data and outputs, but it has been ignored in much environmental research, including evaluations of land use with respect to ES and NC. This paper illustrates the MAUP through an ES optimisation problem. The results show that MAUP effects are unpredictable and nonlinear, with discontinuities specific to the spatial properties of the case study. Four key recommendations are as follows: (1) The MAUP should always be tested for in ES evaluations. This is commonly performed in socio-economic analyses. (2) Spatial aggregation scales should be matched to process granularity by identifying the aggregation scale at which processes are considered to be stable (stationary) with respect to variances, covariances, and other moments. (3) Aggregation scales should be evaluated along with the scale of decision making (e.g., agricultural field, farm holding, and catchment). (4) Researchers in ES and related disciplines should up-skill themselves in spatial analysis and core paradigms related to scale to overcome the scale blindness commonly found in much research.

Human and environmental associates of local species-specific abundance in a multi-species deer assemblage

Understanding how habitat, landscape context, and human disturbance influence local species-specific deer density provides evidence informing strategic management of increasing deer populations. Across an extensive (187 km2) heterogeneous forest-mosaic landscape in eastern England, spatially explicit density surface models of roe deer Capreolus capreolus and introduced muntjac Muntiacus reevesi were calibrated by thermal imaging distance sampling (recording 1590 and 400 muntjac and roe deer groups, respectively, on 567 km of driven transects). Models related deer density to local habitat composition, recreational intensity, and deer density (roe deer models controlled for muntjac density and vice versa) at a local grain across 1162 composite transect segments, incorporating geographical coordinates accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Abundance of both species was lower in localities with more grasslands (inter-quartile, IQ, effect size: roe −2.9 deer/km2; muntjac −2.9 deer/km2). Roe abundance (mean = 7 deer/km2, SD = 6) was greater in localities with more young stands (IQ effect size, + 1.3 deer/km2) and lower at localities with more recreationists (−1.1 deer/km2). Muntjac density (mean = 21 deer/km2, SD = 10) was greater in localities with more recreationists (+ 2.4 deer/km2), with more mature (≥ 46 years) stands (+ 1.5 deer/km2), or calcareous soil (+ 7.1 deer/km2). Comparison of models incorporating candidate variables and models comprising geographical coordinates only shows candidate variables to be weak predictors of deer densities. Adapting forest management to manipulate habitat and recreational access may influence local deer densities, but only subtly: effect sizes are not sufficient to mitigate deer impacts through planting vulnerable tree crops in areas avoided by deer. Effective culling remains the most viable management option.

Factors affecting deer pressure on forest regeneration: The roles of forest roads, visibility and forage availability

BACKGROUND

Deer pressure on forest regeneration constitutes a serious problem in commercial forests in the northern hemisphere due to the increase in deer populations. However, other drivers, such as climate, landscape structure and the level of human activity, have a strong influence on deer pressure. The direct, density-related impacts of ungulates on forest regeneration have been well studied, but there is limited empirical evidence related to the indirect factors mentioned above. We conducted a field experiment in three forest divisions in Poland to evaluate the role of a common element of human infrastructure, i.e. small, unpaved forestry roads. Additionally, we assessed the modifying effect of visibility driven by vegetation cover and forage availability.

RESULTS

The proximity of unpaved roads affected deer habitat use and foraging behaviour, and limited browsing pressure on regenerating forests. Low visibility and higher winter forage availability increased the probability of tree browsing. We observed different responses to roads in two deer species: red deer avoided roads, while roe deer browsed in the vicinity of roads.

CONCLUSIONS

A typical forest network of unpaved roads creates a landscape of fear for red and roe deer, and limits browsing pressure on regenerating forests due to the changes in deer habitat use, activity patterns and foraging behaviour. Knowledge of the factors influencing browsing pressure can help to spatially optimise the application of protective measures for tree seedlings.

The scale-dependent effectiveness of wildlife management: A case study on British deer

Impacts of herbivory by wild ungulates represent a significant issue world-wide. To be effective, management of populations and impacts needs to be coordinated above the site scale, yet little research has investigated the appropriate spatial scale over which management should be integrated to be fully effective. In consideration of reduction of impacts in deciduous or mixed woodland habitats, we tested scale-specific management effectiveness in a lowland area of UK where moderate- to high-density populations of four deer species were the target of deliberate control programmes, and nonhuman predators were absent. We modelled the annual impact recorded between 2009 and 2015 in 98 woodlands as a function of cumulative culls of deer taken since the commencement of management. Analysis was repeated at different spatial scales by increasing the circular area around each focal woodland, from 2.5 km-radius up to 100 km-radius. Our findings suggest for the first time the geographical scale over which deer management needs to be coordinated for optimum effectiveness in decreasing their impact on woodland across relatively homogenous landscapes. For small bodied and relatively sedentary species (roe deer Capreolus capreolus; Reeves' muntjac Muntiacus reevesi), reductions in impacts within woodlands can be achieved by culling at the immediately local level, but some modest increase in effectiveness (probably relating to reductions in the degree of source-sink movement) may be expected with an increase in spatial scale of culling to around 30-70 km-radius. For larger-bodied, herding species with more extensive home-ranges (fallow deer Dama dama; red deer Cervus elaphus) management for reduction of woodland impacts was only really effective when coordinated above the single woodland-scale, with marked increases shown again up to a scale of 100 km-radius. Whilst future studies for different landscape types are still needed, our work emphasises that the spatial scale at which control plans are conducted can determine the effectiveness of wildlife management, possibly providing an advance on how to manage wildlife populations more effectively.