When the pubs closed: beer consumption before and after the first and second waves of COVID-19 in Australia

The extent and diversity of harm from the drinking of unknown others in Australia: An analysis of data from during the COVID-19 pandemic

INTRODUCTION

This paper aims to produce a comprehensive estimate of alcohol's harm to others (AHTO) from strangers among Australia adults in 2021. This survey was undertaken during COVID-19 and aims to compare AHTO results with those from 12 years before and identify differences across socio-demographics.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data of 2574 Australian adults were collected in November 2021 via two survey modes: random digit dialling and the Life in Australia™ panel. Questions pertained to harms from the drinking of known and unknown others ('strangers') in the previous 12 months. Multivariable logistic regression is used to analyse differences in the experience of AHTO from strangers across age, gender and other socio-demographics.

RESULTS

Under half of Australian adults reported experiencing AHTO from a stranger (42.2%) during the period of COVID-19. Women were at significantly higher odds of reporting harm than men. Significantly higher percentages of participants aged 18-49 reported harm than those 65 and over. Rates of experience of harm from strangers' drinking varied between different Australian regions. Adults engaging in less frequent risky drinking (less than 4 days a month) reported significantly greater experiences of harm than those not engaging in risky drinking in the past year.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The current study provides a national estimate of AHTO from strangers in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finding greater risk of experiencing AHTO from strangers among women than men differs from previous AHTO literature, and further research is required to determine if this is an emerging trend.

Risk and protective factors for substance use and media addictive behaviors in adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescents' substance use, digital media use, and symptoms of internet, gaming, and social media addiction.

METHOD

A nationally representative longitudinal cohort of 1665 Israeli teens and preteens, aged 9-16, completed questionnaires assessing substance use prevalence, daily screen time, symptoms of media addiction, and potential risk and protective factors. Data were collected before the pandemic (October 2019), after the second wave lockdown (November 2020), and after the fifth wave (April 2022) in Israel.

RESULTS

The analysis documented significant increases in substance use, daily screen time, and social media addiction indices over time. Gratitude, life satisfaction, positive emotions, future orientation, grit, and secure attachment emerged as significant protective factors. Sensation-seeking, negative emotions, and mental health symptoms were identified as risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of educational and public mental health services in addressing the pandemic's long-term impact on the mental health and addictive behaviors of adolescents. They also emphasize the significance of enhancing protective factors and reducing risk factors to effectively mitigate substance and digital media abuse among adolescents.

The impact of COVID-19 on alcohol sales and consumption in the United States: A retrospective, observational analysis

Understanding the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on alcohol sales and consumption is critical in mitigating alcohol abuse and morbidity. We sought to determine how the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and changes in viral incidence affected alcohol sales and consumption in the United States. We conducted a retrospective observational analysis regressing National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) alcohol sales data and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey data for 14 states for 2017 to 2020 with COVID-19 incidence in 2020 in the United States. The onset of the pandemic was associated with higher monthly alcohol sales per capita of 1.99 standard drinks (95% Confidence Interval: 0.63 to 3.34, p = 0.007). Increases of one COVID-19 case per 100 were associated with lower monthly alcohol sales per capita of 2.98 standard drinks (95% CI: -4.47 to -1.48, p = 0.001) as well as broad decreases in alcohol consumption, notably 0.17 fewer days per month with alcohol use (95% CI: -0.31 to -0.23, p = 0.008) and 0.14 fewer days per month of binge drinking (95% CI: -0.23 to -0.052, p < 0.001). The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with increased monthly average alcohol purchases, but higher viral incidence is linked to lower alcohol purchases and consumption. Continued monitoring is needed to mitigate the effects of higher population alcohol use during the pandemic.

The unexpected consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on maritime crime: Evidence from Indonesia and Nigeria

The economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating. Job losses, negative growth rates, and increased poverty have all followed rising infection rates. The economic costs have been especially challenging for many piracy-prone countries. The international monetary fund anticipates sizable unemployment increases in many Indo-Pacific countries. Deeper and more durable economic damage may materialize in some West African countries. Often, negative economic shocks produce surges in crime, both on land and at sea. The present study evaluates the effects of COVID-19 on maritime pirate attacks in two countries, Nigeria, located in the Gulf of Guinea, and Indonesia, located in the Indo-Pacific. We employ monthly and quarterly data on government measures to prevent infection, sea-piracy incidents, and economic conditions to explore whether the subsequent economic fallout produced more maritime crime. We do not find clear evidence of this relationship in Indonesia. However, COVID-19-induced stringency measure does appear to have increased sea-piracy incidents in Nigeria.

Alcohol use among Australian parents during the COVID-19 pandemic - April-2020 to May 2021

AIMS

This study examined the trajectory of alcohol use frequency among parents from April-2020 to May-2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of Victoria, Australia (who experienced one of the longest lockdowns in the world), compared to parents from the other states of Australia (who experienced relatively fewer restrictions). We further examined the extent to which baseline demographic factors were associated with changes in alcohol use trajectories among parents.

METHOD

Data were from the COVID-19 Pandemic Adjustment Survey (2,261 parents of children 0-18 years). Alcohol use frequency was assessed over 13 waves. Baseline demographic predictors included parent gender, age, speaking a language other than English, number of children, partnership status, education, employment, and income.

RESULTS

Overall, alcohol trajectories declined over time. Victorian parents, in comparison to parents from other states, reported a smaller reduction in alcohol use frequency across 2020, with a more notable decline during 2021. Female/other gender, speaking a language other than English at home, unemployment, and lower income (Victoria only) were associated with alcohol trajectories of less frequent use, and older age was associated with a trajectory of more frequent use.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest subtle difference in alcohol trajectories reflecting COVID-19 restrictions, when comparing Victoria and other states in Australia. Socioeconomically advantaged groups were most at risk for elevated trajectories of alcohol use frequency. Population level support may beneficial to reduce drinking behaviours.

Changes in hazardous drinking pre, during and post 70-day alcohol sales ban during COVID-19 pandemic in Botswana

BACKGROUND

Absolute alcohol sales bans instituted in countries like Botswana provide a rare opportunity for a quasi-natural experiment on how such strict policies influence users' behaviours during the COVID pandemic and beyond. From March 2020 to September 2021, Botswana banned the sales of alcohol on four separate occasions spanning a cumulative 225 days. We studied changes in retrospectively recalled hazardous drinking following the longest and last alcohol sales ban in Botswana.

METHODS

This online cross-sectional study, carried out following a 70-day alcohol sales ban in 2021, comprised a convenience sample of 1326 adults who completed the AUDIT-C and had to recall their alcohol use during three points: pre alcohol sale ban (before 28th June 2021), during alcohol sales ban (28th June 2021 to 5th September 2021), and post alcohol sales ban (after 5th September 2021).

RESULTS

The prevalence of hazardous drinking (defined by an AUDIT-C score of 3 or 4 for females and males, respectively) prior, during and post the alcohol sales ban was 52.6% (95%CI=49.8-55.3), 33.9% (95%CI=31.3-36.5), and 43.1% (95%CI=40.4-45.8), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings from this study showed that reduced alcohol availability by way of the fourth alcohol sales ban was associated with reductions in self-reported hazardous drinking, albeit at a lesser degree compared to during an earlier sales ban.

Epidemiology and Disease Burden of Alcohol Associated Liver Disease

Consumption of alcohol in excess leads to substantial medical, economic, and societal burdens. Approximately 5.3% of all global deaths may be attributed to alcohol consumption. Moreover, the burden of alcohol associated liver disease (ALD) accounts for 5.1% of all disease and injury worldwide. Alcohol use disorder (AUD) affects men more than women globally with significant years of life loss to disability in low, middle and well-developed countries. Precise data on global estimates of alcohol related steatosis, alcohol related hepatitis, and alcohol related cirrhosis have been challenging to obtain. In the United States (US), alcohol related steatosis has been estimated at 4.3% based on NHANES data which has remained stable over 14 years. However, alcohol-related fibrotic liver disease has increased over the same period. In those with AUD, the prevalence of alcohol related hepatitis has been estimated at 10-35%. Globally, the prevalence of alcohol-associated cirrhosis has been estimated at 23.6 million individuals for compensated cirrhosis and 2.46 million for those with decompensated cirrhosis. The contribution of ALD to global mortality and disease burden of liver related deaths is substantial. In 2016 liver disease related to AUD contributed to 50% of the estimated liver disease deaths for age groups 15 years and above. Data from the US report high cost burdens associated with those admitted with alcohol-related liver complications. Finally, the recent COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with marked increase in alcohol consumption worldwide and will likely increase the burden of ALD.

Examining the relationship between alcohol consumption, psychological distress and COVID-19 related circumstances: An Australian longitudinal study in the first year of the pandemic

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between alcohol consumption, psychological distress and COVID-19 related circumstances (being in lockdown, working from home, providing home-schooling and being furloughed) over the first eight months of the pandemic in Australia.

METHOD

A longitudinal study with six survey waves over eight months with a convenience sample of 770 participants. Participants were aged 18 or over, lived in Australia and consumed alcohol at least monthly. Demographic data was obtained in the first wave. Data on alcohol consumption, psychological distress (Kessler 10), and COVID-19 related circumstances (being in lockdown, working from home, providing home-schooling and being furloughed) were obtained in each survey wave.

RESULTS

Results from the fixed-effect bivariate regression analyses show that participants reported greater alcohol consumption when they had high psychological distress compared to when they had low psychological distress. Meanwhile, participants reported greater alcohol consumption when they worked from home compared to when they did not work from home. Participants also reported greater alcohol consumption when they provided home-schooling compared with when they did not provide home-schooling. The fixed-effect panel multivariable regression analyses indicated a longitudinal relationship between higher psychological distress and providing home-schooling on increased alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSION

Broader drinking trends during the COVID-19 pandemic typically indicate increases and decreases in drinking among different members of the population. This study demonstrates that in Australia, it was those who experienced psychological distress and specific impacts of COVID-19 restrictions that were more likely to increase their drinking.

Alcohol sales in Canadian liquor outlets as a predictor of subsequent COVID-19 infection rates: a time-series analysis

AIMS

Government alcohol sales data were used to examine whether age 15+ per-capita alcohol consumption (PCAC) (i) changed during COVID-19 and (ii) predicted COVID-19 infections 2-5 weeks later.

DESIGN

Interrupted time-series analyses were applied to panels of data before and after COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Canada.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The populations, aged 15+, of the provinces of Ontario (ON), British Columbia (BC) and Nova Scotia (NS), Canada.

INTERVENTION

Expansion of home delivery options and hours of trading for liquor stores while restrictions on travel, social and economic activities were imposed by governments during COVID-19 from 17 March 2020 until 29 March 2021.

MEASUREMENTS

Weekly estimates of (i) age 15+ PCAC using sales data supplied by provincial government alcohol distributors for liquor stores, bars and restaurants, (ii) stringency of public health measures assessed by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and (iii) new COVID-19 infections reported by PHAC.

FINDINGS

PCAC increased by 7.10% (P = 0.013) during the pandemic versus previous years, with increased private liquor store sales partly offset by reduced bar/restaurant sales. Consumption was positively associated with stringency of public health measures. Weekly PCAC was positively associated with new COVID-19 infections 2 weeks later (+6.34% for a one drink/week increase, P < 0.001). Lagged associations with COVID-19 infections 2 or 3 weeks later were observed for PCAC from all sales channels, with larger effect sizes per standard drink/person/week increase for on-premise outlets (+77.27% week 2, P = 0.009) than government liquor stores (+6.49%, week 2, P < 0.001) or private liquor stores (+7.13%, week 4, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption increased in three Canadian provinces during COVID-19 to degrees corresponding to the extent of the strictness of measures imposed to prevent viral spread. Increased consumption of alcohol was associated with increased COVID-19 infection rates 2 weeks later.

Alcohol Consumption on the Heaviest Drinking Occasion and Hangovers during the First Dutch COVID-19 Lockdown

The purpose of this study was to compare alcohol consumption between the heaviest drinking occasion in the period before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown (15 January-14 March 2020) and the first COVID-19 lockdown period (15 March-11 May 2020) in the Netherlands, including the presence and severity of associated hangovers. The analysis included a sub-sample from the "Corona Lockdown: how fit are you?" (CLOFIT) study, comprising N = 761 participants who reported consuming alcohol in 2020. Overall, on the heaviest drinking occasion during the first COVID-19 lockdown period a significant reduction in number of alcoholic drinks consumed on the heaviest drinking occasion, drinking duration, and estimated BAC was observed. A significant reduction was also observed for subjective intoxication and next-day hangover severity. During the lockdown period, a significant reduction in the frequency of alcohol hangovers was reported. Several age and sex differences were observed. Specifically, men consumed significantly more alcohol than women and experienced hangovers significantly more frequently, both before and during the lockdown. With regard to age, young adults (18-35 years old) significantly reduced their alcohol intake on the heaviest drinking occasion during the lockdown and also reported lower ratings of subjective intoxication and hangover severity. No significant changes were seen for individuals above 35 years old. In conclusion, the first COVID-19 lockdown in the Netherlands was associated with reduced alcohol intake on the heaviest drinking occasion and a reduction in the severity of hangovers, particularly among young male adults.

Changes in Alcohol Consumption and Determinants of Excessive Drinking During the COVID-19 Lockdown in the Slovak Republic

As a result of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, countries have been forced to adopt strong restrictions, such as lockdown, which can lead to serious consequences for public health, including the problematic use of addictive substances. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to examine changes in alcohol consumption and to identify determinants against the background of excessive drinking during the COVID-19 lockdown in the Slovak Republic. The research included 445 respondents (33% males and 67% females), and the data collection through the questionnaire took place from April 29, 2020 to July 1, 2020. Measures such as drinking frequency, amount of alcohol and excessive drinking were used to examine alcohol consumption. Descriptive analysis and binary logistic regression were used to meet the main aim. The findings provide a closer look at the situation in the Slovak Republic and contribute to comprehensive international knowledge. The frequency of excessive drinking did not change in about half of respondents (53% of males and 69% of females). More respondents decreased their excessive drinking than increased, both among males (31 and 16%, respectively) and females (25 and 6%, respectively). Similar results were found for drinking frequency and amount of alcohol. Amongst Slovak respondents, an increase in excessive drinking was more common among males, younger people, smokers, and smokers who increased smoking during the lockdown. Especially in the case of vulnerable populations, public policies should consider a response to impending problems. The findings of this study encourage the implementation of effective and evidence-based prevention programs, which are more than necessary in the Slovak Republic.

Alcohol access and purchasing behaviour during COVID-19 pandemic restrictions: An exploration of sociodemographic, health and psychosocial correlates in two Canadian provinces

INTRODUCTION

Alcohol access has changed in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study compares the use of two novel purchasing modes (via delivery and in excess/stockpiling) to traditional, in-person purchasing to determine if their use is associated with sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics, perceived COVID-19 health risk or consumption frequency.

METHODS

We draw on cross-sectional survey data from 2000 residents of the Canadian provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, ages 19 years and older that were administered online and by telephone. Associations between purchasing modes and sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics, perceived COVID-19 health risk or consumption frequency were assessed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

About 70% of people who drink purchased in-person, 17% used delivery and 30% purchased in excess/stockpiled. Sociodemographic and psychosocial attributes varied among those at increased odds of using each purchasing mode. Those at higher COVID-19 health risk were at higher odds of getting alcohol delivered. Increased drinking frequency was associated with alcohol delivery and purchasing in excess/stockpiling.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the need for increased public health considerations regarding changes to alcohol regulations. Alcohol delivery and purchasing in excess/stockpiling is positively associated with heavier drinking. Drinkers at higher COVID-19 health risk were more likely to purchase online for delivery, which suggests novel purchasing modes may serve a partial public health function.

Resilience Innovations and the Use of Food Order & Delivery Platforms by the Romanian Restaurants during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, the blocking of activity by the government and the restrictions imposed in Romania had detrimental effects on the activity of restaurants, imposing their adaptation to new situations and generating creative innovations that caused changes in the way restaurants deliver food to consumers through food order & delivery platforms. Exploring the nature and implications of such innovations on resilience, this study analyzes their impact on the attitude and intention to use food delivery platforms by restaurant managers in Romania during the COVID-19 pandemic. Through the proposed structural model, the authors integrate innovations in resilience by joining together the new components of the established TAM model. This research was conducted on a sample of 402 restaurant managers in Romania. The data was collected based on a questionnaire, and it was analyzed with the SmartPLS3 software. The results of the study show that the four variables of innovation, namely business strategy innovations, technological innovations, financial innovations and social innovations, exert different effects on behavioral intention and attitude towards using the order & delivery platforms. The results of the study can be key points in the more efficient management of material, financial and human resources, thus improving the commercial performance of restaurants.

Alcohol Use Disorders among Slovak and Czech University Students: A Closer Look at Tobacco Use, Cannabis Use and Socio-Demographic Characteristics

The main objective of the research was to examine the associations between problematic alcohol use, tobacco use and cannabis use among Czech and Slovak university students during the early COVID-19 pandemic. The research sample consisted of 1422 participants from the Czech Republic (CZ) and 1677 from the Slovak Republic (SK). The analyses included university students who drank alcohol in the past year (CZ: 1323 (93%); SK: 1526 (91%)). Regarding the analysed measures, the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and its subscales, the Glover-Nilsson Smoking Behavioral Questionnaire (GN-SBQ) and the Cannabis Abuse Screening Test (CAST) were selected to identify substance-related behaviour. Age, gender and residence were included in the analyses as socio-demographic variables. Correlation and regression analyses were used to achieve the main objective of the research. The main results revealed that the use of tobacco and cannabis were positively associated with alcohol use disorders among Czech and Slovak university students. Additionally, males were more likely to report alcohol use disorders. In the Czech Republic, it was found that students living in dormitories were characterized by a lower AUDIT score. The opposite situation was found in the Slovak Republic. Czech and Slovak policy-makers are encouraged to develop alcohol use prevention programs for university students in line with these findings.

The concerning increasing trend of alcohol beverage sales in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic

There are some concerns regarding alcohol use behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mixed findings of the first alcohol use studies during this pandemic may reflect the lack of differentiation between on-premise and home consumption. Most of the countries adopted severe restrictions on drinking place functioning. Alcohol retail store sales temporal data were used to examine alcohol sales changes in the United States (U.S.) throughout the COVID-19 pandemic as a proxy indicator of at-home drinking. Data were sourced from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, which has provided U.S. representative estimates of sales at retail and food services stores since 1951. In the present study, we analyzed data from seasonally adjusted beer, wine, and liquor store (BWLS) sales from January 1992 to September 2020. Poisson cubic spline models were used to assess nonlinearity in such sales during the period. These models were adjusted to the consumer price index for alcoholic beverages. There was a significant increase in retail alcohol sales during the beginning of the pandemic, reaching a plateau in the third quarter of 2020. During the COVID-19 period (March 2020 to September 2020), there were 41.9 billion dollars in BWLS sales, representing an increase of 20% compared to the same period in 2019. On the other hand, food and drinking place retail sales decreased by 27% during the same period in the same survey. These results may indicate an increase in home drinking during the period, which could potentially lead to higher alcohol consumption and alcohol-related adverse health outcomes. More aggressive efforts should be made to warn the population about the risks associated with increased home alcohol consumption during the pandemic. Additionally, tracking individual alcohol consumption and releasing real-time data at different levels are needed to better assess the effects of increased alcohol consumption during the pandemic.

Effects of COVID-19 on the Australian Economy: Insights into the Mobility and Unemployment Rates in Education and Tourism Sectors

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected global economies due to lockdowns, business closures, and travel and other restrictions. To control the spread of the virus, several countries, including Australia, imposed strict border restrictions and lockdown measures. Accordingly, international borders have been closed, and all incoming international passengers are mandated to a 14-day hotel quarantine. Residents’ movements and businesses have been limited to essential services only. Employees have been directed to work from home while businesses moved to a remote working model. Due to such stringent measures, small and medium businesses such as cafes, restaurants, hotels, childcare centers, and tourism-based institutions incurred heavy losses, pushing a considerable portion of such small businesses to close. The airlines, education, tourism, and hospitality sector were the worst impacted among all. Due to such closures and associated effects of COVID-19, the unemployment rates are assumed to be significantly increased in countries like Australia. However, a study investigating this unemployment and reporting its status does not exist for Australia. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the effects of COVID-19 control measures such as travel restriction and lockdown on Australia’s employment status and labor markets. The data for the local transport network, unemployment rates and impacts on the tourism industry in Australia were extracted from the public data sources to assess the unemployment rates at both national and state-wide levels. Further, we also looked into the rehabilitation measures by the Australian government, such as the Job Keeper and Job Seeker programs in March 2020, that aim to provide support to people who are unable to run their businesses or have lost their jobs due to the pandemic. Overall, we observed that despite the global crisis, the Australian unemployment rate has reduced in the last year.

Impact of COVID-19 Controls on the Use of Illicit Drugs and Alcohol in Australia

Methamphetamine, MDMA, cocaine, cannabis, and alcohol in samples from 20 wastewater treatment plants servicing the eight state or territory capitals of Australia were analyzed, with equivalent coverage of >45% of the national population. Trends in drug consumption were calculated and assessed from samples collected from 2016 to 2020, with a focus on pre-COVID-19 (August 2016 to December 2019), versus February to June 2020, when Australia observed a nationwide lockdown. Results showed delayed but significant decreases in methamphetamine, >50% in Western Australia. In contrast, significant increases in cannabis in most jurisdictions were observed. This suggests changes in consumption may be somewhat linked to reduced supply of imported substances, with increased use of locally produced drugs. Initial decreases in cocaine and MDMA consumption were evident in many parts of the country, but pre-COVID trends were re-established after April 2020. Interestingly, weekend-weekday differences were narrowed for cocaine, MDMA, and alcohol during lockdown, which might be expected due to bars being closed and social gathering not allowed. With this study providing insight into the first four months of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia, it remains to be seen what the longer-term effect of the pandemic will be.

A data driven agent-based model that recommends non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress Coronavirus disease 2019 resurgence in megacities

Before herd immunity against Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is achieved by mass vaccination, science-based guidelines for non-pharmaceutical interventions are urgently needed to reopen megacities. This study integrated massive mobile phone tracking records, census data and building characteristics into a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 spread among 11.2 million individuals living in Shenzhen City, China. After validation by local epidemiological observations, the model was used to assess the probability of COVID-19 resurgence if sporadic cases occurred in a fully reopened city. Combined scenarios of three critical non-pharmaceutical interventions (contact tracing, mask wearing and prompt testing) were assessed at various levels of public compliance. Our results show a greater than 50% chance of disease resurgence if the city reopened without contact tracing. However, tracing household contacts, in combination with mandatory mask use and prompt testing, could suppress the probability of resurgence under 5% within four weeks. If household contact tracing could be expanded to work/class group members, the COVID resurgence could be avoided if 80% of the population wear facemasks and 40% comply with prompt testing. Our assessment, including modelling for different scenarios, helps public health practitioners tailor interventions within Shenzhen City and other world megacities under a variety of suppression timelines, risk tolerance, healthcare capacity and public compliance.

Creation of Annual Order Forecast for the Production of Beverage Cans—The Case Study

This article is focused on the creation of a system for forecasting of future orders for a specific beverage cans manufacturer. The problem comes from the irregular ordering of cans from different customers; not only national companies, but also from companies abroad. This causes fluctuations in production and consequently an irregular transport regime. That is why the beverage can producer demanded a forecasting system that would help to create an annual production plan. The aim is to analyze the ordering process for the last two years and on that basis to create a forecast system of the possible ordering process for the following year. This is necessary for the introduction of regularity of production, because the frequent transitions of the line to another assortment range or other surface printing requires long downtimes due to the technological setting, thus creating large losses due to inactivity of the production line. As drinking habits of final customers reflect the sale of cans, it was expected that sale data would have a seasonable character; this was proved after a brief analysis of the former data. After that, the appropriate forecasting methods were chosen. The methodology was created to combine multiple forecast results into one to increase the forecast objectivity. Forecasting is performed at three different levels: forecasting of assortment, forecasting of region sale and total forecasting of all orders. In spite of the change in market behavior in 2020, due to the pandemic situation in the first wave of the COVID-19 crisis, the sale of beverage cans is expected to stabilize and return to pre-crisis level as early as 2021. Then the forecasting system will fully meet the company’s requirements.

Alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America and the Caribbean

Objective

To assess the association between drinking behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine, anxiety symptoms, and sociodemographic characteristics in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC).

Method

Data was collected through a cross-sectional online survey (non-probabilistic sample) conducted by the Pan American Health Organization between May 22 and June 30, 2020, in 33 countries and two territories of LAC. Participants were 18 years of age or older and must not have traveled outside of their country since March 15, 2020 (n= 12 328, M age= 38.1 years, 65% female). Four drinking behaviors (online socializing drinking [OSD], drinking with child present [DCP], drinking before 5 p.m. [DB5]), heavy episodic drinking [HED]) were response variables, and quarantining, anxiety symptoms and sociodemographic covariables were explanatory variables.

Results

Quarantine was positively associated with a higher frequency of OSD and with DCP, but negatively associated with a higher frequency of HED. Anxiety symptoms were associated with a higher frequency of HED, more OSD, and DB5. Higher incomes seemed to be more associated with all the studied drinking behaviors. Women tended to report less DB5 and less HED during the pandemic.

Conclusions

Quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic seems to affect drinking behavior and mental health indicators like anxiety symptoms. This study is the first effort to measure the consequences of the quarantine on alcohol consumption and mental health in LAC during the COVID-19 pandemic. Considering the associations found, screenings and brief interventions targeting alcohol consumption and mental health are recommended.