Multitemporal monitoring of paramos as critical water sources in Central Colombia

Paramos, unique and biodiverse ecosystems found solely in the high mountain regions of the tropics, are under threat. Despite their crucial role as primary water sources and significant carbon repositories in Colombia, they are deteriorating rapidly and garner less attention than other vulnerable ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest. Their fertile soil and unique climate make them prime locations for agriculture and cattle grazing, often coinciding with economically critical deposits such as coal which has led to a steady decline in paramo area. Anthropic impact was evaluated using multispectral images from Landsat and Sentinel over 37 years, on the Guerrero and Rabanal paramos in central Colombia which have experienced rapid expansion of mining and agriculture. Our analysis revealed that since 1984, the Rabanal and Guerrero paramos have lost 47.96% and 59.96% of their native vegetation respectively, replaced primarily by crops, pastures, and planted forests. We detected alterations in the spectral signatures of native vegetation near coal coking ovens, indicating a deterioration of paramo health and potential impact on ecosystem services. Consequently, human activity is reducing the extent of paramos and their efficiency as water sources and carbon sinks, potentially leading to severe regional and even global consequences.

Ecological niche modeling analysis (Cx. pipiens), potential risk and projection of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Greece

Vector-borne diseases continue to increase worldwide. Dirofilariosis is one of the most common vector-borne zoonotic diseases, mainly caused by Dirofilaria spp. (D. immitis and D. repens) and spread by culicid mosquitoes of different species. Greece is one of the countries in southern Europe where it is traditionally endemic, and its distribution is not homogeneous. The aim of this study was to develop an environmental model for Greece that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for Dirofilaria spp. infection risk and its projection until 2080. For this purpose, we used the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated using an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of Dirofilaria spp. The ecological niche model of Cx. pipiens in Greece showed good predictive power (AUC=0.897) with the parasite at a resolution of 1 km2. The variables that contributed most to the model were mean annual temperature, rivers and human footprint. The highest risk of infection was found in coastal areas and in riverside areas of the main river basins, as well as in irrigated areas of the mainland and peninsular regions and in the whole territory of island areas, and the lowest risk was found in areas of higher altitude. A positive relationship was found between the risk of dirofilariosis and the location of infected dogs, with 86.65% located in very high and high risk areas. In 2080, the percentage of territory gained by Cx. pipiens will increase by 261.52%. This model provides a high predictive value, predicted presence, and risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection and can serve as a tool for the management and control of this disease.

Future range dynamics of Asian yellow-legged hornets (Vespa velutina) and their range overlap with Western honey bees (Apis mellifera) reveal major challenges for bee conservation in Europe

BACKGROUND

The invasion of Asian yellow-legged hornets (Vespa velutina) has significantly affected Western honey bees (Apis mellifera) and apiculture in Europe. However, the range dynamics of this hornet and its range overlap with the bees under future change scenarios have not yet been clarified. Using land-use, climate, and topographical datasets, we projected the range dynamics of this hornet and Western honey bees in Europe and the future overlap of their ranges.

RESULTS

We found that climatic factors had stronger effects on the potential ranges of the hornets compared with land-use and topographical factors. A considerable range expansion of this hornet was predicted, and an increase in the overlap between this pest and the bees was primarily caused by future decreases in temperature seasonality. Additionally, we detected future range expansions of the hornet in the UK and France; future range overlap between this pest and Western honey bees in the UK, Ireland, Portugal, and France; and future overlap between the ranges of this pest and bees but not under recent conditions was mainly projected in Germany, Denmark, and the UK.

CONCLUSION

Mitigating future climate change might effectively control the proliferation of the hornets and their effects on the bees. Strategies for preventing the invasion of this pest and developing European apiculture should be developed and implemented in these regions where future range overlap between them was projected. Given that climate-change scenarios may result in uncertainty in our projections, further investigation is needed to clarify future range changes of our target species. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Prediction and validation of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria spp. infection in Serbia and its projection to 2080

Animal and human dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, being one of the most important diseases in Europe. In Serbia, there are extensive studies reporting the presence of Dirofilaria immitis and D. repens, mainly in the north of the country, where the human population is concentrated and where there is a presence of culicid mosquitoes that transmit the disease. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) has proven to be a very good tool to predict the appearance of parasitosis in very diverse areas, with distant orography and climatologies at a local, continental, and global level. Taking these factors into account, the objective of this study was to develop an environmental model for Serbia that reflects the suitability of the ecological niche for the risk of infection with Dirofilaria spp. with which the predictive power of existing studies is improved. A wide set of variables related to the transmission of the parasite were used. The potential number of generations of D. immitis and the ecological niche modeling method (ENM) were used to estimate the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens. The highest probability of infection risk was located in the north of the country, and the lowest in the southern regions, where there is more orographic relief and less human activity. The model was corroborated with the location of D. immitis-infected dogs, with 89.28% of the country having a high probability of infection. In addition, it was observed that the percentage of territory with optimal habitat for Culex spp. will increase significantly between now and 2080. This new model can be used as a tool in the control and prevention of heartworm disease in Serbia, due to its high predictive power, and will serve to alert veterinary and health personnel of the presence of the disease in the animal and human population, respectively.

Assessment Heartworm Disease in the Canary Islands (Spain): Risk of Transmission in a Hyperendemic Area by Ecological Niche Modeling and Its Future Projection

Heartworm disease is a vector-borne zoonotic disease caused by Dirofilaria immitis. The Canary Islands (Spain), geolocated close to the coast of Western Sahara, is an archipelago considered hyperendemic where the average prevalence in domestic dogs is high, heterogeneous, and non-uniform. In addition, Culex theileri has been reported as a vector of the disease on two of the most populated islands. Our aim was to develop a more accurate transmission risk model for dirofilariosis for the Canary Islands. For this purpose, we used different variables related to parasite transmission; the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex spp. was calculated using the ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of generations of D. immitis. The resulting model was validated with the geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all islands. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. There is a risk of transmission on all islands, being high in coastal areas, moderate in midland areas, and minimal in higher altitude areas. Most of the dogs infected with D. immitis were geolocated in areas with a high risk of transmission. In 2080, the percentage of territory that will have been gained by Culex spp. is small (5.02%), although it will occur toward the midlands from coastal areas. This new model provides a high predictive power for the study of cardiopulmonary dirofilariosis in the Canary Islands, as a hyperendemic area of the disease, and can be used as a tool for its prevention and control.

Current Risk of Dirofilariosis Transmission in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain) and Its Future Projection under Climate Change Scenarios

Dirofilariosis is a vector-borne zoonotic disease whose distribution is linked to the presence of culicid mosquitoes. Spain and Portugal are considered endemic countries; however, the distribution of dirofilariosis is not uniform. Our aim was to develop a more accurate risk model of dirofilariosis transmission for the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) and the Balearic Islands (Spain). To do this, we used a set of key variables related to parasite transmission: the potential distribution of suitable habitats for Culex pipiens calculated via an ecological niche model (ENM) and the potential number of Dirofilaria spp. generations. The resulting model was validated with the prevalence and geolocation of D. immitis-infected dogs from all provinces and districts. In addition, the impact of possible future climatic conditions was estimated. A quantitative estimate of the risk of infection by Dirofilaria spp. was obtained at a resolution of 1 km². The entire analyzed territory was susceptible to contact with the parasite. The highest risk of infection was found throughout the eastern coastal strip and the south of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, as well as in the areas surrounding the basins of the main rivers, and the lowest risk was located in the higher-altitude areas. We found a robust and positive relationship between the risk of dirofilariosis and the observed prevalence of infested dogs in the study area (β ± SE = 3.32 ± 1.43 p < 0.05). In 2080, the percentage of territory gain for Cx. pipiens will increase to 49.98%, which will increase the risk of infection. This new model provides a high predictive value for the current and predicted presence and risk and can serve as a tool for the management and control of dirofilariosis.

The effect of global warming on the Australian endemic orchid Cryptostylis leptochila and its pollinator

Ecological stability together with the suitability of abiotic conditions are crucial for long-term survival of any organism and the maintenance of biodiversity and self-sustainable ecosystems relies on species interactions. By influencing resource availability plants affect the composition of plant communities and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Plant-animal interactions are very complex and include a variety of exploitative and mutualistic relationships. One of the most important mutualistic interactions is that between plants and their pollinators. Coevolution generates clustered links between plants and their pollen vectors, but the pollination and reproductive success of plants is reduced by increase in the specialization of plant-animal interactions. One of the most specialized types of pollination is sexual deception, which occurs almost exclusively in Orchidaceae. In this form of mimicry, male insects are attracted to orchid flowers by chemical compounds that resemble insect female sex pheromones and pollinate the flowers during attempted copulations. These interactions are often species-specific with each species of orchid attracting only males of one or very few closely related species of insects. For sexually deceptive orchids the presence of a particular pollen vector is crucial for reproductive success and any reduction in pollinator availability constitutes a threat to the orchid. Because global warming is rapidly becoming the greatest threat to all organisms by re-shaping the geographical ranges of plants, animals and fungi, this paper focuses on predicting the effect of global warming on Cryptostylis leptochila, a terrestrial endemic in eastern Australia that is pollinated exclusively via pseudo copulation with Lissopimpla excelsa. As a species with a single pollinator this orchid is a perfect model for studies on the effect of global warming on plants and their pollen vectors. According to our predictions, global warming will cause a significant loss of suitable niches for C. leptochila. The potential range of this orchid will be 36%-75% smaller than currently and as a result the Eastern Highlands will become unsuitable for C. leptochila. On the other hand, some new niches will become available for this species in Tasmania. Simultaneously, climate change will result in a substantial expansion of niches suitable for the pollinator (44-82%). Currently ca. 71% of the geographical range of the orchid is also suitable for L. excelsa, therefore, almost 30% of the areas occupied by C. leptochila already lack the pollen vector. The predicted availability of the pollen vector increased under three of the climate change scenarios analysed. The predicted habitat loss is a serious threat to this orchid even with the potential colonization of Tasmania by this plant. In the reduced range of C. leptochila the pollen vector will also be present assuring fruit set in populations of this orchid. The genetic pool of the populations in New South Wales and Queensland will probably be lost.

Effects of Elevated Temperature and High and Low Rainfall on the Germination and Growth of the Invasive Alien Plant Acacia mearnsii

The impact of climate change on the germination and growth of invasive alien plants varies depending on the plant species and invasion process. We experimentally assessed the responses of the invasive alien plant Acacia mearnsii to future climate change scenarios-namely, elevated temperature as well as high and low rainfall. Acacia mearnsii was grown at an elevated air temperature (+2 °C), high rainfall (6 mm per day), and low rainfall (1.5 mm per day), and its germination and growth performance were measured over five months. We further examined changes in soil nutrients to assess if the above-mentioned climate change scenarios affected soils. Both elevated temperature and high rainfall did not influence A. mearnsii germination and seedling growth. In contrast, we observed reductions in A. mearnsii germination and growth in the low rainfall treatment, an indication that future drought conditions might negatively affect A. mearnsii invasion. We noted that elevated temperature and rainfall resulted in varied effects on soil properties (particularly soil C, N, Ca, and Mg content). We conclude that both elevated temperature and high rainfall may not enhance A. mearnsii invasion through altering germination and growth, but a decrease in A. mearnsii invasiveness is possible under low rainfall conditions.

Cultivation has selected for a wider niche and large range shifts in maize

Background

Maize (Zea mays L.) is a staple crop cultivated on a global scale. However, its ability to feed the rapidly growing human population may be impaired by climate change, especially if it has low climatic niche and range lability. One important question requiring clarification is therefore whether maize shows high niche and range lability.

Methods

We used the COUE scheme (a unified terminology representing niche centroid shift, overlap, unfilling and expansion) and species distribution models to study the niche and range changes between maize and its wild progenitors using occurrence records of maize, lowland teosinte (Zea mays ssp. parviglumis) and highland teosinte (Zea mays ssp. mexicana), respectively, as well as explore the mechanisms underlying the niche and range changes.

Results

In contrast to maize in Mexico, maize did not conserve its niche inherited from lowland and highland teosinte at the global scale. The niche breadth of maize at the global scale was wider than that of its wild progenitors (ca. 5.21 and 3.53 times wider compared with lowland and highland teosinte, respectively). Compared with its wild progenitors, maize at global scale can survive in regions with colder, wetter climatic conditions, as well as with wider ranges of climatic variables (ca. 4.51 and 2.40 times wider compared with lowland and highland teosinte, respectively). The niche changes of maize were largely driven by human introduction and cultivation, which have exposed maize to climatic conditions different from those experienced by its wild progenitors. Small changes in niche breadth had large effects on the magnitude of range shifts; changes in niche breadth thus merit increased attention.

Discussion

Our results demonstrate that maize shows wide climatic niche and range lability, and this substantially expanded its realized niche and potential range. Our findings also suggest that niche and range shifts probably triggered by natural and artificial selection in cultivation may enable maize to become a global staple crop to feed the growing population and adapting to changing climatic conditions. Future analyses are needed to determine the limits of the novel conditions that maize can tolerate, especially relative to projected climate change.

Grazing intensity drives plant diversity but does not affect forage production in a natural grassland dominated by the tussock-forming grass Andropogon lateralis Nees

Andropogon lateralis is a tall and highly plastic tussock-forming grass native from southern South America. It is a frequent component of Campos and Subtropical highland grasslands that often becomes dominant under lax grazing regimes. The aim of this work was to analyze the response of species diversity and forage production of a natural grassland dominated by A. lateralis to a wide range of grazing intensity. We hypothesized that species diversity and forage production would both peak at the intermediate canopy heights determined by grazing regimes of moderate intensity. A grazing experiment was conducted in a highland grassland with mesothermal humid climate at 922 masl (Atlantic Forest biome, Santa Catarina state, Brazil) that comprised 87 species from 20 families but had 50% of its standing biomass accounted by A. lateralis. Four pre-/post-grazing canopy heights-12/7, 20/12, 28/17, and 36/22 cm (measured on A. lateralis)-were arranged in a complete randomized block design with four replications, and intermittently stocked with beef heifers from October 2015 to October 2017. Andropogon lateralis cover decreased (from 75 to 50%), and species richness increased (15-25 species m^-2) as canopy height decreased. Grazing intensity did not affect annual forage production (4.2 Mg DM ha^-1). This natural grassland dominated by A. lateralis had a high capacity to adjust to grazing regimes of contrasting intensity, maintaining forage production stable over a wide range of canopy heights. However, to prevent losses in floristic diversity, such grassland should not be grazed at canopy heights higher than 28 cm.

Plants of the Spontaneous Flora with Beneficial Action in the Management of Diabetes, Hepatic Disorders, and Cardiovascular Disease

The current pharmacological agents advised for the management of diabetes as well as cardiovascular and hepatic diseases are subject to numerous studies for safety and efficacy. Therefore, it is worth looking into alternative therapeutic aids such as natural products of medicinal plants. By a broad review of in vitro and in vivo studies on the various dandelion, chicory, and mulberry extracts, this work highlights their bioactive compounds and therapeutic action when used as a prevention and management aid in public health such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and hepatic disorders like non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Natural products of dandelion leaves and root extracts can suppress the development of liver cancer, decrease insulin resistance, and suppress total triglyceride and cholesterol levels. Recent studies on mulberry leaves extracts indicated that they could decrease palmitic acid-induced lipotoxicity, increase total cholesterol and bile acid excretion, improve superoxide dismutase expression, and improve insulin resistance. Chicory root extracts boost satiety, reverse insulin resistance, and augment lipid metabolism thanks to their contents in chicoric acid, chlorogenic acid, and polysaccharides. Taraxacum officinale L., Morus nigra L., and Cichorium intybus L. present hepatoprotective, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, hypolipidemic, and hypoglycemic activities and are shown to be advantageous in the management of obesity, dyslipidemia, Type 2 diabetes, and non-alcoholic fatty liver diseases. These plants are commonly available in the European spontaneous flora and more attention could be paid to their natural products.

Double-edged effects of climate change on plant invasions: Ecological niche modeling global distributions of two invasive alien plants

The prediction of the potential distribution of invasive alien species is key for the control of their proliferation. This study developed ensemble niche models to explore the distribution patterns of Cecropia peltata and Ulex europaeus under baseline and future conditions, as well as the factors that regulate them. The models were based on occurrence records as well as climate, land-use and topography datasets. Climatic factors played a stronger role than land-use and topographical factors in their distribution patterns. Additionally, temperature seasonality and temperature annual range were the optimal predictor for the global distributions of C. peltata and U. europaeus, respectively. Under the baseline-RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070, significant increases in habitat suitability for C. peltata were generally detected in tropical regions, while for U. europaeus under the same condition, significant increases in habitat suitability were generally observed in west coast of South America and Europe, suggesting the impacts of climate changes on species distribution may be species specific. The contrast changes of suitable habitat areas for U. europaeus under the baseline-2.6 and 8.5 scenarios may suggest that the scenarios of climate changes may modify its distribution patterns and variations in suitable habitats. The double-edged effects of global warming on plant invasions may be a result of the scenario specific climate change and the species-specific responses to changes in climate. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change scenario specific and species-specific research on the impact of climate change on plant invasions.

Climatic niche and potential distribution of Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray in Africa

Mexican sunflower, Tithonia diversifolia (Asteraceae), is an invasive tropical plant species native to Central America. It has spread in more than 70 countries across Asia, Africa and Australia. In Africa, this species is known to disturb native crops and plant communities, but its negative impacts remain underestimated. Moreover, its potential invasion risk has not been investigated so far. A fundamental aspect in the identification and prediction of habitats susceptible to biological invasions lies in the ability of an organism to conserve or change its ecological niche as part of the invasion process. Here, we compared the realised climatic niche of T. diversifolia between its Central American and African ranges. In addition, reciprocal distribution models were calibrated on its native and invaded ranges. Models were combined and projected to current and future climatic conditions in Africa to estimate the potential distribution of this species. Niche overlap given by Schoner's D index was low (0.23), equivalency and similarity tests suggested that the climatic niche of T. diversifolia is not similar in both ranges. However the low expansion (U = 0.09) and very high stability (S = 0.92) indices support climatic niche conservatism for this species in Africa, although it has not filled its entire niche so far. Our combined reciprocal models highlight highly suitable areas for this species in humid regions throughout East, Central and West Africa, then in some parts of South Africa and Madagascar. Future projections indicated that the distribution of climatically suitable habitats will likely remain stable.