Combining one-sample confidence procedures for inference in the two-sample case

Disparities in Total Knee and Total Hip Arthroplasty Rates in the Population of Alaska, 2015 to 2018

OBJECTIVE

Racial and ethnic disparities in total joint replacements have been documented. Our objective was to determine the rates of total joint replacements for Alaska Native/American Indian (AN/AI) individuals compared with non-AN/AI individuals in Alaska and investigate the differences in characteristics and outcomes by race.

METHODS

We used hospital discharge data from the Alaska Health Facilities Data Reporting Program from 2015 to 2018. We identified people with an inpatient primary or revision total knee arthroplasty (TKA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA). We determined the population proportion of each procedure, age-adjusted rates by race, age-specific rates, and multivariable adjusted rate ratios for TKA or THA. We compared the characteristics of people undergoing primary TKA and THA by race.

RESULTS

In 2,195,806 person-years, there were 8,131 arthroplasty procedures (4,594 primary TKAs, 2,791 primary THAs, 378 revision TKAs, and 368 revision THAs). Primary TKAs and THAs were less likely in people of AN/AI or "Other" race compared with people of White race, with some heterogeneity in the "Other" race category. In multivariable models, the adjusted rate ratio for AN/AI compared with White race for TKA was 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.82) and for THA was 0.69 (95% CI 0.55-0.85). AN/AI individuals undergoing TKA and THA were more likely to reside in rural locations, be younger than 65 years, have longer hospital stay, and discharge to home.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed the existence of racial disparities in TKA and THA in Alaska. There may be many underlying causes, and future research should focus on improving access to care.

Causal interpretation of the hazard ratio in randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Although the hazard ratio has no straightforward causal interpretation, clinical trialists commonly use it as a measure of treatment effect.

METHODS

We review the definition and examples of causal estimands. We discuss the causal interpretation of the hazard ratio from a two-arm randomized clinical trial, and the implications of proportional hazards assumptions in the context of potential outcomes. We illustrate the application of these concepts in a synthetic model and in a model of the time-varying effects of COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

We define causal estimands as having either an individual-level or population-level interpretation. Difference-in-expectation estimands are both individual-level and population-level estimands, whereas without strong untestable assumptions the causal rate ratio and hazard ratio have only population-level interpretations. We caution users against making an incorrect individual-level interpretation, emphasizing that in general a hazard ratio does not on average change each individual's hazard by a factor. We discuss a potentially valid interpretation of the constant hazard ratio as a population-level causal effect under the proportional hazards assumption.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the population-level hazard ratio remains a useful estimand, but one must interpret it with appropriate attention to the underlying causal model. This is especially important for interpreting hazard ratios over time.

Analysis of two binomial proportions in noninferiority confirmatory trials

In this article, we propose considering an approximate exact score (AES) test for noninferiority comparisons and we derive its test-based confidence interval for the difference between two independent binomial proportions. This test was published in the literature, but not its associated confidence interval. The p-value for this test is obtained by using exact binomial probabilities with the nuisance parameter being replaced by its restricted maximum likelihood estimate. Calculated type I errors revealed that the AES method has important advantages for noninferiority comparisons over popular asymptotic methods for adequately powered confirmatory clinical trials, at 80% or 90% statistical power. For unbalanced sample sizes of the compared groups, type I errors for the asymptotic score method were shown to be higher than the nominal level in a systematic pattern over a range of true proportions, but the AES method did not suffer from such a problem. On average, the true type I error of the AES method was closer to the nominal level than all considered methods in the empirical comparisons. In rare cases, type I errors of the AES test exceeded the nominal level, but only by a small amount. Presented examples showed that the AES method can be more attractive in practice than practical exact methods. In addition, p-value and confidence interval of the AES method can be obtained in <30 s of computer time for most confirmatory trials. Theoretical arguments, combined with empirical evidence and fast computation time should make the AES method attractive in statistical practice.

An evaluation of confidence intervals for a cumulative proportion to enable decisions at interim reviews of single-arm trials

BACKGROUND

Clinical trials often include interim analyses of the proportion of participants experiencing an event by a fixed time-point. A pre-specified proportion excluded from a corresponding confidence interval (CI) may lead an independent monitoring committee to recommend stopping the trial. Frequently this cumulative proportion is estimated by the Kaplan-Meier estimator with a Wald approximate CI, which may have coverage issues with small samples.

METHODS

We reviewed four alternative CI methods for cumulative proportions (Beta Product Confidence Procedure (BPCP), BPCP Mid P, Rothman-Wilson, Thomas-Grunkemeier) and two CI methods for simple proportions (Clopper-Pearson, Wilson). We conducted a simulation study comparing CI methods across true event proportions for 12 scenarios differentiated by sample sizes and censoring patterns. We re-analyzed interim data from A5340, a HIV cure trial considering the proportion of participants experiencing virologic failure.

RESULTS

Our simulation study highlights the lower and upper tail error probabilities for each CI method. Across scenarios, we found differences in the performance of lower versus upper bounds. No single method is always preferred. The upper bound of a Wald approximate CI performed reasonably with some error inflation, whereas the lower bound of the BPCP Mid P method performed well. For a trial design similar to A5340, we recommend BPCP Mid P.

CONCLUSIONS

The design of future single-arm interim analyses of event proportions should consider the most appropriate CI method based on the relevant bound, anticipated sample size and event proportion. Our paper summarizes available methods, demonstrates performance in a simulation study, and includes code for implementation.

Efficacy and safety of moxidectin compared with ivermectin against Strongyloides stercoralis infection in adults in Laos and Cambodia: a randomised, double-blind, non-inferiority, phase 2b/3 trial

BACKGROUND

Infection with the soil-transmitted helminth Strongyloides stercoralis affects up to 600 million people globally, most of whom live in rural areas with poor sanitation. If untreated, infection leads to long-lasting morbidity and might even be life-threatening. Moxidectin might be a promising alternative to ivermectin, the only currently recommended single-dose treatment. We aimed to assess whether moxidectin is non-inferior in terms of efficacy and safety compared with ivermectin.

METHODS

In this randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, non-inferiority, phase 2b/3 trial in communities in Laos and Cambodia, adults aged 18-65 years were screened for the presence of S stercoralis larvae in their stool via sextuplicate quantitative Baermann assays. Using computer-generated group allocation (block randomisation stratified by infection intensity), parasitologically (two or more positive Baermann assays) and clinically eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive single oral doses of either moxidectin (8 mg) and ivermectin-matched placebo, or ivermectin (200 μg/kg bodyweight) and moxidectin-matched placebo. The primary endpoint was cure rate assessed at 14-21 days after treatment, using the available-case population analysed according to intention-to-treat principles. Moxidectin was considered non-inferior to ivermectin if the lower limit of the two-sided 95% CI of the difference was greater than the non-inferiority margin of -10 percentage points. Safety endpoints were assessed before treatment, and at 2-3 h, 24 h, and 14-21 days after treatment. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04056325 and NCT04848688.

FINDINGS

Between Dec 6, 2020, and May 21, 2022, 4291 participants were screened, 726 of whom were enrolled and randomly assigned to moxidectin (n=363) or ivermectin (n=363). For the participants with primary outcome data, we observed a cure rate of 93·6% (95% CI 90·5 to 96·0; 324 of 346 participants) in the moxidectin group and 95·7% (93·0 to 97·6; 335 of 350 participants) in the ivermectin group, resulting in a between-group difference of -2·1 percentage points (95% CI -5·5 to 1·3). The most common adverse events were abdominal pain (32 [9%] of 363 with moxidectin vs 34 [9%] of 363 with ivermectin) and headache (25 [7%] vs 30 [8%]), which were predominantly mild and transient.

INTERPRETATION

Moxidectin was non-inferior to ivermectin in terms of efficacy in the treatment of strongyloidiasis. Additionally, both drugs had a similar safety profile. The fixed dose and lower cost of moxidectin compared with ivermectin make it a valuable alternative for people with strongyloidiasis.

FUNDING

Swiss National Science Foundation.

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination

BACKGROUND

While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection.

METHODS

In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures.

FINDINGS

Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease.

INTERPRETATION

Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health.

Confidence intervals for prevalence estimates from complex surveys with imperfect assays

There are established methods for estimating disease prevalence with associated confidence intervals for complex surveys with perfect assays, or simple random sample surveys with imperfect assays. We develop and study methods for the complicated case of complex surveys with imperfect assays. The new methods use the melding method to combine gamma intervals for directly standardized rates and established adjustments for imperfect assays by estimating sensitivity and specificity. One of the new methods appears to have at least nominal coverage in all simulated scenarios. We compare our new methods to established methods in special cases (complex surveys with perfect assays or simple surveys with imperfect assays). In some simulations, our methods appear to guarantee coverage, while competing methods have much lower than nominal coverage, especially when overall prevalence is very low. In other settings, our methods are shown to have higher than nominal coverage. We apply our method to a seroprevalence survey of SARS-CoV-2 in undiagnosed adults in the United States between May and July 2020.

Hospitalized Infections in Patients With Rheumatic Disease Hospitalizations in Alaska, 2015-2018

OBJECTIVE

Rheumatic diseases are associated with increased rates of hospitalized infection, but few studies have included Indigenous North American populations. Our objective was to evaluate the association of rheumatic disease diagnosis during a hospitalization with odds of hospitalized infections in Alaska and assess differences by race.

METHODS

We used hospital discharge data from the Alaska Health Facilities Data Reporting Program from 2015 to 2018. We identified people with a rheumatic disease diagnosis based on any hospital discharge diagnosis of a set of rheumatic diseases and compared them to people hospitalized but without a rheumatic disease diagnosis. We determined odds of hospitalized infection by rheumatic disease diagnosis status and type, race, and type of infection. Using multivariable modeling, we determined factors associated with hospitalized infection.

RESULTS

Having a rheumatic disease diagnosis other than osteoarthritis was associated with 1.90 higher odds of hospitalized infection overall, whereas people of Alaska Native/American Indian (AN/AI) race with rheumatic disease had 2.44 higher odds. The odds varied by rheumatic disease and were increased in all rheumatic diseases except osteoarthritis (0.73). The most common type of hospitalized infection was sepsis, but opportunistic infections and pneumonia were most associated with a rheumatic disease diagnosis. On multivariable analysis, having a rheumatic disease diagnosis other than osteoarthritis, being of older age, and being of AN/AI race were associated with increased odds of hospitalized infection, with an interaction between race and rheumatic disease status.

CONCLUSION

This study confirmed the association of hospitalized infections with rheumatic disease diagnosis (other than osteoarthritis) during hospitalization and identified disparities by race.

Noninferiority testing with censoring when the event rate is low

The PREDICT TB trial tests noninferiority of an abbreviated treatment regimen (arm A) vs a conventional treatment regimen (arm C). Treatment trials of drug-susceptible tuberculosis are expected to have low event rates (ie, relapse probabilities around 3-5%). We examine the question of what is the "best" way to test for noninferiority in a setting with low event rates. In a series of simulations supported by theoretical arguments, we examine operating characteristics of five tests, including normal approximation, exact, and simulation-based tests. Two of these tests are constructed from Kaplan-Meier based-estimators, which account for variable follow-up time (and those lost to follow-up). We evaluate the effect of loss to follow-up via simulations. We also examine the results of the five tests on a data set similar to PREDICT TB, the REMoxTB trial. We find that the normal approximation tests perform well, albeit with small type I error rate inflation. We also find that the Kaplan-Meier methods generally have larger power than the other tests, especially when there is between 10-30% loss to follow-up.

Effect of Anticoagulant Therapy for 6 Weeks vs 3 Months on Recurrence and Bleeding Events in Patients Younger Than 21 Years of Age With Provoked Venous Thromboembolism: The Kids-DOTT Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Among patients younger than 21 years of age, the optimal duration of anticoagulant therapy for venous thromboembolism is unknown.

Objective

To test the hypothesis that a 6-week duration of anticoagulant therapy for provoked venous thromboembolism is noninferior to a conventional 3-month therapy duration in patients younger than 21 years of age.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Randomized clinical trial involving 417 patients younger than 21 years of age with acute, provoked venous thromboembolism enrolled at 42 centers in 5 countries from 2008-2021. The main exclusions were severe anticoagulant deficiencies or prior venous thromboembolism. Patients without persistent antiphospholipid antibodies and whose thrombi were resolved or not completely occlusive upon repeat imaging at 6 weeks after diagnosis underwent randomization. The final visit for the primary end points occurred in January 2021.

Interventions

Total duration for anticoagulant therapy of 6 weeks (n = 207) vs 3 months (n = 210) for provoked venous thromboembolism.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary efficacy and safety end points were centrally adjudicated symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism and clinically relevant bleeding events within 1 year blinded to treatment group. The primary analysis was noninferiority in the per-protocol population. The noninferiority boundary incorporated a bivariate trade-off that included an absolute increase of 0% in symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism with an absolute risk reduction of 4% in clinically relevant bleeding events (1 of 3 points on the bivariate noninferiority boundary curve).

Results

Among 417 randomized patients, 297 (median age, 8.3 [range, 0.04-20.9] years; 49% female) met criteria for the primary per-protocol population analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimate for the 1-year cumulative incidence of the primary efficacy outcome was 0.66% (95% CI, 0%-1.95%) in the 6-week anticoagulant therapy group and 0.70% (95% CI, 0%-2.07%) in the 3-month anticoagulant therapy group, and for the primary safety outcome, the incidence was 0.65% (95% CI, 0%-1.91%) and 0.70% (95% CI, 0%-2.06%). Based on absolute risk differences in recurrent venous thromboembolism and clinically relevant bleeding events between groups, noninferiority was demonstrated. Adverse events occurred in 26% of patients in the 6-week anticoagulant therapy group and in 32% of patients in the 3-month anticoagulant therapy group; the most common adverse event was fever (1.9% and 3.4%, respectively).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among patients younger than 21 years of age with provoked venous thromboembolism, anticoagulant therapy for 6 weeks compared with 3 months met noninferiority criteria based on the trade-off between recurrent venous thromboembolism risk and bleeding risk.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00687882.

Short-term oestrogen as a strategy to prevent postpartum depression in high-risk women: protocol for the double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled MAMA clinical trial

INTRODUCTION

Postpartum depression affects 10%-15% of women and has a recurrence rate of 40% in subsequent pregnancies. Women who develop postpartum depression are suspected to be more sensitive to the rapid and large fluctuations in sex steroid hormones, particularly estradiol, during pregnancy and postpartum. This trial aims to evaluate the preventive effect of 3 weeks transdermal estradiol treatment immediately postpartum on depressive episodes in women at high risk for developing postpartum depression.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Maternal Mental Health Trial is a double-blind, randomised and placebo-controlled clinical trial. The trial involves three departments of obstetrics organised under Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark. Women who are singleton pregnant with a history of perinatal depression are eligible to participate. Participants will be randomised to receive either transdermal estradiol patches (200 µg/day) or placebo patches for 3 weeks immediately postpartum. The primary outcome is clinical depression, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-V criteria of Major Depressive Disorder with onset at any time between 0 and 6 months postpartum. Secondary outcomes include, but are not limited to, symptoms of depression postpartum, exclusive breastfeeding, cortisol dynamics, maternal distress sensitivity and cognitive function. The primary statistical analysis will be performed based on the intention-to-treat principle. With the inclusion of 220 participants and a 20% expected dropout rate, we anticipate 80% power to detect a 50% reduction in postpartum depressive episodes while controlling the type 1 error at 5%.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study protocol is approved by the Regional Committees on Health Research Ethics in the Capital Region of Denmark, the Danish Medicines Agency and the Centre for Data Protection Compliance in the Capital Region of Denmark. We will present results at scientific meetings and in peer-reviewed journals and in other formats to engage policymakers and the public.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04685148.

Prediction and Prevention of Preterm Birth: A Prospective, Randomized Intervention Trial

OBJECTIVE

 The study aimed to determine if a program of mid-trimester serum proteomics screening of women at low risk for spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) and the use of a PTB risk-reduction protocol in those whose results indicated an increased risk of sPTB would reduce the likelihood of sPTB and its sequelae.

STUDY DESIGN

 Prospective comparison of birth outcomes in singleton pregnancies with mid-trimester cervical length ≥2.5 cm and at otherwise low risk for sPTB randomized to undergo or not undergo mid-trimester serum proteomics screening for increased risk of sPTB (NCT03530332). Screen-positive women were offered a group of interventions aimed at reducing the risk of spontaneous PTB. The primary outcome was the rate of sPTB <37 weeks, and secondary outcomes were gestational age at delivery, total length of neonatal stay, and NICU length of stay (LOS). Unscreened and screen-negative women received standard care. The adaptive study design targeted a sample size of 3,000 to 10,000 women to detect a reduction in sPTB from 6.4 to 4.7%. Due to limited resources, the trial was stopped early prior to data unblinding.

RESULTS

 A total of 1,191 women were randomized. Screened and unscreened women were demographically similar. sPTB <37 weeks occurred in 2.7% of screened women and 3.5% of controls (p = 0.41). In the screened compared with the unscreened group, there were no between-group differences in the gestational age at delivery, total length of neonatal stay, and NICU LOS. However, the NICU LOS among infants admitted for sPTB was significantly shorter (median = 6.8 days, interquartile range [IQR]: 1.8-8.0 vs. 45.5 days, IQR: 34.6-79.0; p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

 Mid-trimester serum proteomics screening of women at low risk for sPTB and the use of a sPTB risk-reduction protocol in screen-positive patients did not significantly reduce the rate of sPTB compared with women not screened, though the trial was underpowered thus limiting the interpretation of negative findings. Infants in the screened group had a significantly shorter NICU LOS, a difference likely due to a reduced number of infants in the screened group that delivered <35 weeks.

KEY POINTS

· Mid-trimester serum proteomics screening of women at low risk for sPTB and the use of a sPTB risk-reduction protocol in screen-positive patients did not significantly reduce the rate of sPTB, though the trial was underpowered.. · NICU LOS following sPTB was significantly shortened among women who underwent screening and risk-reduction management.. · The use of serum biomarkers may contribute to a practical strategy to reduce sPTB sequelae..

Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the U.S. population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. Most blood samples (88.7%) were collected between 10 May and 31 July 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.6 to 6.5%), with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%. The highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants; younger, female, and Hispanic participants; and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.

Utility of abdominal skin punch biopsy for detecting systemic amyloidosis

BACKGROUND

Early and accurate diagnosis of systemic amyloidosis (SA) is critical for optimal patient outcomes. Biopsy of clinically uninvolved skin and subcutaneous tissue including abdominal skin punch biopsy (ASPB) is often used as a surrogate for affected organ sampling. There is a lack of published data on the sensitivity and specificity of ASPB for diagnosing SA.

METHODS

Retrospective chart review between 2000 and 2020 of all ASPB was performed to diagnose SA. Amyloid deposition was confirmed by Congo red stain. Study group includes patients with histopathologically and clinically confirmed diagnosis of SA. Control group includes patients without histopathology of amyloid deposition and no clinical SA.

RESULTS

Forty-one patients meeting inclusion criteria were analyzed; 23 study group and 18 control group patients. The overall diagnostic sensitivity of ASPB was 43% (95% CI 23%-66%) and the specificity 100% (95% CI 81%-100%). The AL amyloidosis diagnostic sensitivity was 64% (95% CI 35%-87%). ASPB >10 mm in depth had 100% (95% CI 54%-100%) sensitivity compared to 24% for depth ≤10 mm (P = .002).

CONCLUSIONS

ASPB is a minimally invasive and highly specific method of diagnosing SA. It is particularly sensitive for diagnosing AL amyloidosis and the diagnostic sensitivity can be significantly improved with adequate biopsy depth and diameter.

Effect of Implementing the Out-of-Hospital Traumatic Brain Injury Treatment Guidelines: The Excellence in Prehospital Injury Care for Children Study (EPIC4Kids)

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We evaluate the effect of implementing the out-of-hospital pediatric traumatic brain injury guidelines on outcomes in children with major traumatic brain injury.

METHODS

The Excellence in Prehospital Injury Care for Children study is the preplanned secondary analysis of the Excellence in Prehospital Injury Care study, a multisystem, intention-to-treat study using a before-after controlled design. This subanalysis included children younger than 18 years who were transported to Level I trauma centers by participating out-of-hospital agencies between January 1, 2007, and June 30, 2015, throughout Arizona. The primary and secondary outcomes were survival to hospital discharge or admission for children with major traumatic brain injury and in 3 subgroups, defined a priori as those with moderate, severe, and critical traumatic brain injury. Outcomes in the preimplementation and postimplementation cohorts were compared with logistic regression, adjusting for risk factors and confounders.

RESULTS

There were 2,801 subjects, 2,041 in preimplementation and 760 in postimplementation. The primary analysis (postimplementation versus preimplementation) yielded an adjusted odds ratio of 1.16 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 1.92) for survival to hospital discharge and 2.41 (95% confidence interval 1.17 to 5.21) for survival to hospital admission. In the severe traumatic brain injury cohort (Regional Severity Score-Head 3 or 4), but not the moderate or critical subgroups, survival to discharge significantly improved after guideline implementation (adjusted odds ratio = 8.42; 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 100+). The improvement in survival to discharge among patients with severe traumatic brain injury who received positive-pressure ventilation did not reach significance (adjusted odds ratio = 9.13; 95% confidence interval 0.79 to 100+).

CONCLUSION

Implementation of the pediatric out-of-hospital traumatic brain injury guidelines was not associated with improved survival when the entire spectrum of severity was analyzed as a whole (moderate, severe, and critical). However, both adjusted survival to hospital admission and discharge improved in children with severe traumatic brain injury, indicating a potential severity-based interventional opportunity for guideline effectiveness. These findings support the widespread implementation of the out-of-hospital pediatric traumatic brain injury guidelines.

Confidence intervals for difference in proportions for matched pairs compatible with exact McNemar's or sign tests

For testing with paired data (eg, twins randomized between two treatments), a simple test is the sign test, where we test if the distribution of the sign of the differences in responses between the two treatments within pairs is more often positive (favoring one treatment) or negative (favoring the other). When the responses are binary, this reduces to a McNemar-type test, and the calculations are the same. Although it is easy to calculate an exact P-value by conditioning on the total number of discordant pairs, the accompanying confidence interval on a parameter of interest (proportion positive minus proportion negative) is not straightforward. Effect estimates and confidence intervals are important for interpretation because it is possible that the treatment helps a very small proportion of the population yet gives a highly significant effect. We construct a confidence interval that is compatible with an exact sign test, meaning the 100 ( 1 - α ) % interval excludes the null hypothesis of equality of proportions if and only if the associated exact sign test rejects at level α . We conjecture that the proposed confidence intervals guarantee nominal coverage, and we support that conjecture with extensive numerical calculations, but we have no mathematical proof to show guaranteed coverage. We have written and made available the function mcnemarExactDP in the exact2x2 R package and the function signTest in the asht R package to perform the methods described in this article.

Efficacy of FLU-v, a broad-spectrum influenza vaccine, in a randomized phase IIb human influenza challenge study

FLU-v, developed by PepTcell (SEEK), is a peptide vaccine aiming to provide a broadly protective cellular immune response against influenza A and B. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, single-center, phase IIb efficacy and safety trial was conducted. One hundred and fifty-three healthy individuals 18-55 years of age were randomized to receive one or two doses of adjuvanted FLU-v or adjuvanted placebo subcutaneously on days -43 and -22, prior to intranasal challenge on day 0 with the A/California/04/2009/H1N1 human influenza A challenge virus. The primary objective of the study was to identify a reduction in mild to moderate influenza disease (MMID) defined as the presence of viral shedding and clinical influenza symptoms. Single-dose adjuvanted FLU-v recipients (n = 40) were significantly less likely to develop MMID after challenge vs placebo (n = 42) (32.5% vs 54.8% p = 0.035). FLU-v should continue to be evaluated and cellular immunity explored further as a possible important correlate of protection against influenza.

A Randomized, Controlled Trial of Ebola Virus Disease Therapeutics

BACKGROUND

Although several experimental therapeutics for Ebola virus disease (EVD) have been developed, the safety and efficacy of the most promising therapies need to be assessed in the context of a randomized, controlled trial.

METHODS

We conducted a trial of four investigational therapies for EVD in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where an outbreak began in August 2018. Patients of any age who had a positive result for Ebola virus RNA on reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assay were enrolled. All patients received standard care and were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to intravenous administration of the triple monoclonal antibody ZMapp (the control group), the antiviral agent remdesivir, the single monoclonal antibody MAb114, or the triple monoclonal antibody REGN-EB3. The REGN-EB3 group was added in a later version of the protocol, so data from these patients were compared with those of patients in the ZMapp group who were enrolled at or after the time the REGN-EB3 group was added (the ZMapp subgroup). The primary end point was death at 28 days.

RESULTS

A total of 681 patients were enrolled from November 20, 2018, to August 9, 2019, at which time the data and safety monitoring board recommended that patients be assigned only to the MAb114 and REGN-EB3 groups for the remainder of the trial; the recommendation was based on the results of an interim analysis that showed superiority of these groups to ZMapp and remdesivir with respect to mortality. At 28 days, death had occurred in 61 of 174 patients (35.1%) in the MAb114 group, as compared with 84 of 169 (49.7%) in the ZMapp group (P = 0.007), and in 52 of 155 (33.5%) in the REGN-EB3 group, as compared with 79 of 154 (51.3%) in the ZMapp subgroup (P = 0.002). A shorter duration of symptoms before admission and lower baseline values for viral load and for serum creatinine and aminotransferase levels each correlated with improved survival. Four serious adverse events were judged to be potentially related to the trial drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Both MAb114 and REGN-EB3 were superior to ZMapp in reducing mortality from EVD. Scientifically and ethically sound clinical research can be conducted during disease outbreaks and can help inform the outbreak response. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others; PALM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03719586.).

A Phase I, Randomized, Controlled Clinical Study of CC-11050 in People Living With HIV With Suppressed Plasma Viremia on Antiretroviral Therapy (APHRODITE)

OBJECTIVE

Phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitors (PDE4i) are novel anti-inflammatory medications that have been approved for rheumatologic diseases and have been tested as host-directed therapy in tuberculosis. We examined the safety of CC-11050, a potent PDE4i in people living with HIV (PLWH) with suppressed HIV plasma viremia. We hypothesized that CC-11050 could be used to modulate HIV-related inflammation.

METHOD

Thirty PLWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) ≥ 1 year with suppressed HIV viremia were enrolled and randomized 2:1 to 12 weeks of CC-11050 200mg twice daily or placebo with follow-up at weeks 2, 4, 8, 12, and 16. Primary endpoint was safety. Secondary endpoints were the effect of CC-11050 on cytokines, monocyte, and T-cell activation and potential pharmacokinetic interaction between CC-11050 and Efavirenz (EFV).

RESULTS

At baseline, median age was 49.5 years and CD4 count 459 cells/µL. Most frequent adverse events (grade 1 and 2 only) in CC-11050 group were headache, diarrhea, nausea, cough, nasal congestion, and restlessness. Over a 12-week period, the CC-11050 group had lower level of IL-8, adjusted for baseline level, group, and week (0.72-fold, P = .02), lower percentage of NK cells (0.87-fold, P = .02) and higher IL-6 level (1.48-fold, P = .03) compared to placebo (0.87-fold, P = .02). CC-11050 and EFV co-administration did not reveal any pharmacokinetic interaction.

CONCLUSIONS

CC-11050 was well tolerated in PLWH, without affecting CD4 counts or plasma viremia, and led to a decrease in NK cells and plasma IL-8 level after 12-weeks of administration. Further study will be needed to elucidate the efficacy of CC-11050 as potential anti-inflammatory adjuvant strategy in HIV.

Statistical Methods for Standard Membrane-Feeding Assays to Measure Transmission Blocking or Reducing Activity in Malaria

Transmission blocking vaccines for malaria are not designed to directly protect vaccinated people from malaria disease, but to reduce the probability of infecting other people by interfering with the growth of the malaria parasite in mosquitoes. Standard membrane-feeding assays compare the growth of parasites in mosquitoes from a test sample (using antibodies from a vaccinated person) compared to a control sample. There is debate about whether to estimate the transmission reducing activity (TRA) which compares the mean number of parasites between test and control samples, or transmission blocking activity (TBA) which compares the proportion of infected mosquitoes. TBA appears biologically more important since each mosquito with any parasites is potentially infective; however, TBA is less reproducible and may be an overly strict criterion for screening vaccine candidates. Through a statistical model, we show that the TBA estimand depends on μ _c , the mean number of parasites in the control mosquitoes, a parameter not easily experimentally controlled. We develop a standardized TBA estimator based on the model and a given target value for μ _c which has better mean squared error than alternative methods. We discuss types of statistical inference needed for using these assays for vaccine development.

Functional determinants of protein assembly into homomeric complexes

Approximately half of proteins with experimentally determined structures can interact with other copies of themselves and assemble into homomeric complexes, the overwhelming majority of which (>96%) are symmetric. Although homomerisation is often assumed to a functionally beneficial result of evolutionary selection, there has been little systematic analysis of the relationship between homomer structure and function. Here, utilizing the large numbers of structures and functional annotations now available, we have investigated how proteins that assemble into different types of homomers are associated with different biological functions. We observe that homomers from different symmetry groups are significantly enriched in distinct functions, and can often provide simple physical and geometrical explanations for these associations in regards to substrate recognition or physical environment. One of the strongest associations is the tendency for metabolic enzymes to form dihedral complexes, which we suggest is closely related to allosteric regulation. We provide a physical explanation for why allostery is related to dihedral complexes: it allows for efficient propagation of conformational changes across isologous (i.e. symmetric) interfaces. Overall we demonstrate a clear relationship between protein function and homomer symmetry that has important implications for understanding protein evolution, as well as for predicting protein function and quaternary structure.

Safety and efficacy of PfSPZ Vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum via direct venous inoculation in healthy malaria-exposed adults in Mali: a randomised, double-blind phase 1 trial

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum sporozite (PfSPZ) Vaccine is a metabolically active, non-replicating, whole malaria sporozoite vaccine that has been reported to be safe and protective against P falciparum controlled human malaria infection in malaria-naive individuals. We aimed to assess the safety and protective efficacy of PfSPZ Vaccine against naturally acquired P falciparum in malaria-experienced adults in Mali.

METHODS

After an open-label dose-escalation study in a pilot safety cohort, we did a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial based in Donéguébougou and surrounding villages in Mali. We recruited 18-35-year-old healthy adults who were randomly assigned (1:1) in a double-blind manner, with stratification by village and block randomisation, to receive either five doses of 2·7 × 10⁵ PfSPZ or normal saline at days 0, 28, 56, 84, and 140 during the dry season (January to July inclusive). Participants and investigators were masked to group assignments, which were unmasked at the final study visit, 6 months after receipt of the last vaccination. Participants received combined artemether and lumefantrine (four tablets, each containing 20 mg artemether and 120 mg lumefantrine, given twice per day over 3 days for a total of six doses) to eliminate P falciparum before the first and last vaccinations. We collected blood smears every 2 weeks and during any illness for 24 weeks after the fifth vaccination. The primary outcome was the safety and tolerability of the vaccine, assessed as local and systemic reactogenicity and adverse events. The sample size was calculated for the exploratory efficacy endpoint of time to first P falciparum infection beginning 28 days after the fifth vaccination. The safety analysis included all participants who received at least one dose of investigational product, whereas the efficacy analyses included only participants who received all five vaccinations. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01988636.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 18 and Feb 24, 2014, we enrolled 93 participants into the main study cohort with 46 participants assigned PfSPZ Vaccine and 47 assigned placebo, all of whom were evaluable for safety. We detected no significant differences in local or systemic adverse events or laboratory abnormalities between the PfSPZ Vaccine and placebo groups, and only grade 1 (mild) local or systemic adverse events occurred in both groups. The most common solicited systemic adverse event in the vaccine and placebo groups was headache (three [7%] people in the vaccine group vs four [9%] in the placebo group) followed by fatigue (one [2%] person in the placebo group), fever (one [2%] person in the placebo group), and myalgia (one [2%] person in each group). The exploratory efficacy analysis included 41 participants from the vaccine group and 40 from the placebo group. Of these participants, 37 (93%) from the placebo group and 27 (66%) from the vaccine group developed P falciparum infection. The hazard ratio for vaccine efficacy was 0·517 (95% CI 0·313-0·856) by time-to-infection analysis (log-rank p=0·01), and 0·712 (0·528-0·918) by proportional analysis (p=0·006).

INTERPRETATION

PfSPZ Vaccine was well tolerated and safe. PfSPZ Vaccine showed significant protection in African adults against P falciparum infection throughout an entire malaria season.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program, Sanaria.

Statistical considerations for a trial of Ebola virus disease therapeutics

The 2014 West African outbreak of Ebola virus ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, causing hemorrhagic fever and death. The need to identify effective therapeutics was acute. The usual drug development paradigm of phase I, followed by phase II, and then phase III trials would take too long. These and other factors led to the design of a clinical trial of Ebola virus disease therapeutics that differs from more conventional clinical trial designs. This article describes the Ebola virus disease medical countermeasures trial design and the thinking behind it.