Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability

Adaptation to fluctuating temperatures across life stages in endotherms

Accelerating rates of climate change have intensified research on thermal adaptation. Increasing temperature fluctuations, a prominent feature of climate change, means that the persistence of many species depends on both heat and cold tolerance across the entire life cycle. In endotherms, research has focused on specific life stages, with changes in thermoregulation across life rarely being examined. Consequently, there is a need to (i) analyse how heat and cold tolerance mechanisms coevolve, and (ii) test whether antagonistic effects between heat and cold tolerance across different life stages limit thermal adaptation. Information on genes influencing heat and cold tolerance and how they are expressed through life will enable more accurate modelling of species vulnerabilities to future climatic volatility.

Differential phenotypic plasticity of subalpine trees predicts trait integration under climate warming

Understanding limiting factors of phenotypic plasticity is essential given its critical role in shaping biological adaptation and evolution in changing environments. It has been proposed that the pattern of phenotypic correlation could constrain trait plasticity. However, the interplay between phenotypic plasticity and integration has remained contentious. We experimentally simulated climate warming in juveniles of three subalpine tree species by exposing them to three-year in situ open-top chambers (OTCs), and then measured functional plasticity of 72 eco-physiological traits to evaluate whether phenotypic integration constituted an intrinsic constraint to plasticity. We also tested the relationship between the differences in plasticity and maintenance in trait integration. Phenotypic plasticity was positively associated with integration in deciduous tree species under warming. The difference in the plasticity of two paired traits could predict their integration in different environments, where traits displaying more similar plasticity were more likely to be correlated. Our study showed no indication that phenotypic integration constrained plasticity. More importantly, we demonstrated that differential plasticity between traits might result in a notable reorganization of the trait associations, and that warming commonly induced a tighter phenotype. Our study provides new insights into the interplay between phenotypic plasticity and integration in subalpine trees under climate warming.

Global leaf sulfur stoichiometry and the relationships with nitrogen and phosphorus: phylogeny, growth form and environmental controls

Sulfur (S) is an essential bioelement with vital roles in serving regulatory and catalytic functions and tightly coupled with N and P in plants. However, globally stoichiometric patterns of leaf S and its relationships to leaf N and P are less well studied. We compiled 31 939 records of leaf-based data for 2600 plant species across 6652 sites worldwide. All plant species were divided into different phylogenetic taxa and growth forms. Standard major axis analysis was employed to fit the bivariate element relationships. A phylogenetic linear mixed-effect model and a multiple-regression model were used to partition the variations of bioelements into phylogeny and environments, and then to estimate the importance of environmental variables. Global geometric mean leaf S, N and P concentrations were 1.44, 15.70 and 1.27 mg g-1, respectively, with significant differences among plant groups. Leaf S-N-P positively correlated with each other, ignoring plant groups. The scaling exponents of LN-LS, LP-LS and LN-LP were 0.64, 0.76 and 0.79, respectively, for all species, but differed among plant groups. Both phylogeny and environments regulated the bioelements. The variability, rather than mean temperature, controlled the bioelements. Phylogeny explained more for the concentrations of all the three bioelements than environments, of which S was the one most affected by phylogenetic taxa.

Biodiversity in changing environments: An external-driver internal-topology framework to guide intervention

Accompanying the climate crisis is the more enigmatic biodiversity crisis. Rapid reorganization of biodiversity due to global environmental change has defied prediction and tested the basic tenets of conservation and restoration. Conceptual and practical innovation is needed to support decision making in the face of these unprecedented shifts. Critical questions include: How can we generalize biodiversity change at the community level? When are systems able to reorganize and maintain integrity, and when does abiotic change result in collapse or restructuring? How does this understanding provide a template to guide when and how to intervene in conservation and restoration? To this end, we frame changes in community organization as the modulation of external abiotic drivers on the internal topology of species interactions, using plant-plant interactions in terrestrial communities as a starting point. We then explore how this framing can help translate available data on species abundance and trait distributions to corresponding decisions in management. Given the expectation that community response and reorganization are highly complex, the external-driver internal-topology (EDIT) framework offers a way to capture general patterns of biodiversity that can help guide resilience and adaptation in changing environments.

The lack of plasticity and interspecific variability in thermal limits produce a highly heat-tolerant tropical host-parasitoid system

Thermal limits are often used as proxies to assess the vulnerability of ectotherms to environmental change. While meta-analyses point out a relatively low plasticity of heat limits and a large interspecific variability, only few studies have compared the heat tolerance of interacting species. The present study focuses on the thermal limits, and their plasticity (heat hardening), of three species co-occurring in Western Africa: two ectoparasitoid species, Dinarmus basalis (Rondani) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) and Eupelmus vuilleti (Crawford) (Hymenoptera: Eupelmidae), and their common host, Callosobruchus maculatus (F.) (Coleoptera: Bruchidae). The investigation delves into the Critical Thermal Maximum (CTmax), representing the upper tolerance limit, to understand how these species may cope with extreme thermal events. The CTmax of all three species appeared similarly high, hovering around 46.5 °C, exceeding the global mean CTmax observed in insects by 3.5 °C. Short-term exposure to moderate heat stress showed no impact on CTmax, suggesting a potential lack of heat hardening in these species. Therefore, we emphasized the similarity of heat tolerance in these interacting species, potentially stemming from both evolutionary adaptations to high temperatures during development and the stable and similar microclimate experienced by the three species over the years. While the high thermal tolerance should allow these species to endure extreme temperature events, the apparent lack of plasticity raises concerns about their ability to adapt to future climate change scenarios. Overall, this research provides valuable insights into the thermal physiology of these interacting species, providing a basis for understanding their responses to climate change and potential implications for the host-parasitoid system.

Testing metabolic cold adaptation and the climatic variability hypothesis in two latitudinally distant populations of a supratidal water beetle

Temperature significantly impacts ectotherm physiology, with thermal tolerance and metabolic traits typically varying with latitude across species ranges. The drivers of this variation remain unclear, however, despite obvious consequences for population persistence and conservation in the face of ongoing global change. This study explored local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity of metabolic rates and thermal limits in the supratidal rockpool beetle Ochthebius lejolisii. Using populations from localities at different ends of the species range that experience contrasting thermal variability, we simultaneously tested two of the major paradigms of spatial physiological ecology: metabolic cold adaptation (MCA) and the climatic variability hypothesis (CVH). Reciprocal acclimation was conducted under spring temperature regimes of both localities, incorporating local diurnal variation. Metabolic rates were measured by closed respirometry, and thermal tolerance limits estimated through thermography. In line with MCA, the higher-latitude population (colder climate) showed higher metabolic rates and temperature coefficients (Q10s) at lower temperatures than the lower-latitude population. As predicted by the CVH, the lower-latitude population (more variable climate) showed higher upper thermal tolerance but only the higher-latitude population was able to acclimate upper thermal limits. This result suggests trade-offs between physiological thermal limits and thermal plasticity in this species. A limited acclimation capacity could make populations on Mediterranean coasts especially vulnerable in the face of projected increases in extreme temperatures under ongoing climate change.

Acclimation to warmer temperatures can protect host populations from both further heat stress and the potential invasion of pathogens

Thermal acclimation can provide an essential buffer against heat stress for host populations, while acting simultaneously on various life-history traits that determine population growth. In turn, the ability of a pathogen to invade a host population is intimately linked to these changes via the supply of new susceptible hosts, as well as the impact of warming on its immediate infection dynamics. Acclimation therefore has consequences for hosts and pathogens that extend beyond simply coping with heat stress-governing both population growth trajectories and, as a result, an inherent propensity for a disease outbreak to occur. The impact of thermal acclimation on heat tolerances, however, is rarely considered simultaneously with metrics of both host and pathogen population growth, and ultimately fitness. Using the host Daphnia magna and its bacterial pathogen, we investigated how thermal acclimation impacts host and pathogen performance at both the individual and population scales. We first tested the effect of maternal and direct thermal acclimation on the life-history traits of infected and uninfected individuals, such as heat tolerance, fecundity, and lifespan, as well as pathogen infection success and spore production. We then predicted the effects of each acclimation treatment on rates of host and pathogen population increase by deriving a host's intrinsic growth rate (rm) and a pathogen's basic reproductive number (R0). We found that direct acclimation to warming enhanced a host's heat tolerance and rate of population growth, despite a decline in life-history traits such as lifetime fecundity and lifespan. In contrast, pathogen performance was consistently worse under warming, with within-host pathogen success, and ultimately the potential for disease spread, severely hampered at higher temperatures. Our results suggest that hosts could benefit more from warming than their pathogens, but only by linking multiple individual traits to population processes can the full impact of higher temperatures on host and pathogen population dynamics be realised.

Stage-Specific Demographic Effects of Hydrologic Variation in a Stream Salamander

AbstractWe lack a strong understanding of how organisms with complex life histories respond to climate variation. Many stream-associated species have multistage life histories that are likely to influence the demographic consequences of floods and droughts. However, tracking stage-specific demographic responses requires high-resolution, long-term data that are rare. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data for the headwater stream salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus to quantify the effects of flooding and drying magnitude on stage-specific vital rates and population growth. Drying reduced larval recruitment but increased the probability of metamorphosis (i.e., adult recruitment). Flooding reduced adult recruitment but had no effect on larval recruitment. Larval and adult survival declined with flooding but were unaffected by drying. Annual population growth rates (λ) declined with flooding and drying. Lambda also declined over the study period (2012-2021), although mean λ was 1.0 over this period. Our results indicate that G. porphyriticus populations are resilient to hydrologic variation because of compensatory effects on recruitment of larvae versus adults (i.e., reproduction vs. metamorphosis). Complex life cycles may enable this resilience to climate variation by creating opportunities for compensatory demographic responses across stages. However, more frequent and intense hydrologic variation in the latter half of this study contributed to a decline in λ over time, suggesting that increasing environmental variability poses a threat even when demographic compensation occurs.

Intra-annual stem radial growth of Qinghai spruce and its environmental drivers in the Qilian Mountains, northwestern China

Tree stem radial growth could be used to estimate forest productivity, which plays a dominant role in the carbon sink of terrestrial ecosystems. However, it is still obscure how intra-annual stem radial growth is regulated by environmental variables. Here, we monitored Qinghai spruce stem radial growth over seven years and analyzed the environmental drivers of the intra-annual stem radial changes in the Qilian Mountains at low (2700 m) and high altitudes (3200 m). We found that stem radial growth initiated when the daily mean minimum air temperature reached 1.6oC, while the cessation of stem growth was unrelated to temperatures and water conditions. Initiations of stem growth at 2700 m were significantly earlier than that at 3200 m. Maximum growth rates were observed before the summer solstice at low altitude, whereas at high altitude, the majority of them occurred after the summer solstice. Most variability in annual stem increment (AI) can be explained by the rate (Rm) than by the duration of stem growth (∆t), and 78.9 % and 69.6 % of the variability in AI were attributable to Rm for the lower and upper site, respectively. Structural equation modeling revealed that precipitation (P) could both directly positively influence stem radial increment (SRI) and indirectly positively influence SRI through influencing relative humidity (RH), but the positive effect of P on SRI was higher at low altitude than at high altitude. Daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) was also the main direct diver of SRI, and the positive effect of Tmin on SRI was higher at high altitude than at low altitude. Considering the trends in climate warming and humidification over the past decades, climate changes would result in earlier initiation of Qinghai spruce stem growth and promote the growth through positive response to increased precipitation in low altitude and through elevated temperature in high altitude, respectively.

Characterization of genes encoding heat shock proteins reveals a differential response to temperature in two geographic populations of Liriomyza trifolii (Diptera: Agromyzidae)

Liriomyza trifolii is a significant, invasive pest that damages horticultural crops and vegetables. The distribution of L. trifolii is influenced by temperature, and prior research has demonstrated that variations in thermal adaptability differ among geographic populations of the insect. Heat shock proteins (Hsps) are involved in adaptation to temperatures; however, the underlying molecular mechanism for thermal adaption in different L. trifolii populations remains unclear. This study examines the temperature adaptability of two L. trifolii populations from Hainan (HN) and Jiangsu (JS) provinces. The results indicate that the HN population has a higher survival rate and a higher critical thermal maximum (CTmax) than the JS population under high temperature stress. Transcriptome data at 42 °C revealed that the JS population has more differentially expressed genes (DEGs) than the HN population, while the HN population has more upregulated DEGs. The two populations were similar in functional annotation of DEGs, and a large number of Hsps were upregulated. However, the HN population had larger numbers and higher expression levels of Hsps during heat stress as compared to the JS population. Additionally, the expression patterns of differentially expressed Hsps varied between the HN and JS populations in response to different elevated temperatures. Notably, the transcription levels of Hsp70s were higher in the HN population as compared to the JS population, while the expression level of genes encoding small heat shock proteins was higher in the JS population. These findings have significant scientific value in understanding the underlying mechanism of temperature adaption in L. trifolii and provide a fresh perspective on the distribution of this invasive pest.

The Potential Role of Genic-SSRs in Driving Ecological Adaptation Diversity in Caragana Plants

Caragana, a xerophytic shrub genus widely distributed in northern China, exhibits distinctive geographical substitution patterns and ecological adaptation diversity. This study employed transcriptome sequencing technology to investigate 12 Caragana species, aiming to explore genic-SSR variations in the Caragana transcriptome and identify their role as a driving force for environmental adaptation within the genus. A total of 3666 polymorphic genic-SSRs were identified across different species. The impact of these variations on the expression of related genes was analyzed, revealing a significant linear correlation (p < 0.05) between the length variation of 264 polymorphic genic-SSRs and the expression of associated genes. Additionally, 2424 polymorphic genic-SSRs were located in differentially expressed genes among Caragana species. Through weighted gene co-expression network analysis, the expressions of these genes were correlated with 19 climatic factors and 16 plant functional traits in various habitats. This approach facilitated the identification of biological processes associated with habitat adaptations in the studied Caragana species. Fifty-five core genes related to functional traits and climatic factors were identified, including various transcription factors such as MYB, TCP, ARF, and structural proteins like HSP90, elongation factor TS, and HECT. The roles of these genes in the ecological adaptation diversity of Caragana were discussed. Our study identified specific genomic components and genes in Caragana plants responsive to heterogeneous habitats. The results contribute to advancements in the molecular understanding of their ecological adaptation, lay a foundation for the conservation and development of Caragana germplasm resources, and provide a scientific basis for plant adaptation to global climate change.

The thermal breadth of temperate and tropical freshwater insects supports the climate variability hypothesis

Climate change involves increases in mean temperature and changes in temperature variability at multiple temporal scales but research rarely considers these temporal scales. The climate variability hypothesis (CVH) provides a conceptual framework for exploring the potential effects of annual scale thermal variability across climatic zones. The CVH predicts ectotherms in temperate regions tolerate a wider range of temperatures than those in tropical regions in response to greater annual variability in temperate regions. However, various other aspects of thermal regimes (e.g. diel variability), organisms' size and taxonomic identity are also hypothesised to influence thermal tolerance. Indeed, high temperatures in the tropics have been proposed as constraining organisms' ability to tolerate a wide range of temperatures, implying that high annual maximum temperatures would be associated with tolerating a narrow range of temperatures. We measured thermal regimes and critical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) of freshwater insects in the orders Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Plecoptera (stoneflies) and Trichoptera (caddisflies) along elevation gradients in streams in temperate and tropical regions of eastern Australia and tested the CVH by determining which variables were most correlated with thermal breadth (T br = CTmax - CTmin). Consistent with the CVH, T br tended to increase with increasing annual temperature range. T br also increased with body size and T br was generally wider in Plecoptera than in Ephemeroptera or Trichoptera. We also find some support for a related hypothesis, the climate extreme hypothesis (CEH), particularly for predicting upper thermal limits. We found no evidence that higher annual maximum temperature constrained individuals' abilities to tolerate a wide range of temperatures. The support for the CVH we document suggests that temperate organisms may be able to tolerate wider ranges of temperatures than tropical organisms. There is an urgent need to investigate other aspects of thermal regimes, such as diel temperature cycling and minimum temperature.

Patterns of tropical forest understory temperatures

Temperature is a fundamental driver of species distribution and ecosystem functioning. Yet, our knowledge of the microclimatic conditions experienced by organisms inside tropical forests remains limited. This is because ecological studies often rely on coarse-gridded temperature estimates representing the conditions at 2 m height in an open-air environment (i.e., macroclimate). In this study, we present a high-resolution pantropical estimate of near-ground (15 cm above the surface) temperatures inside forests. We quantify diurnal and seasonal variability, thus revealing both spatial and temporal microclimate patterns. We find that on average, understory near-ground temperatures are 1.6 °C cooler than the open-air temperatures. The diurnal temperature range is on average 1.7 °C lower inside the forests, in comparison to open-air conditions. More importantly, we demonstrate a substantial spatial variability in the microclimate characteristics of tropical forests. This variability is regulated by a combination of large-scale climate conditions, vegetation structure and topography, and hence could not be captured by existing macroclimate grids. Our results thus contribute to quantifying the actual thermal ranges experienced by organisms inside tropical forests and provide new insights into how these limits may be affected by climate change and ecosystem disturbances.

Effects of deterministic assembly of communities caused by global warming on coexistence patterns and ecosystem functions

Seasonal rhythms in biological and ecological dynamics are fundamental in regulating the structuring of microbial communities. Evaluating the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to climate change could provide information on their variability and stability over longer timescales (>20-year). However, information on temporal variability in microorganism responses to medium- and long-term global warming is limited. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the temporal dynamics of microbial communities in response to global warming; to this end, we integrated data on the maintenance of species diversity, community composition, temporal turnover rates (v), and community assembly process in two typical ecosystems (meadows and shrub habitat) on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results showed that 21 years of global warming would increase the importance of the deterministic process for microorganisms in both ecosystems across all seasons (R2 of grassland (GL) control: 0.524, R2 of GL warming: 0.467; R2 of shrubland (SL) control: 0.556, R2 of SL warming: 0.543), reducing species diversity and altering community composition. Due to environmental filtration pressure from 21 years of warming, the low turnover rate (v of warming: -3.13/-2.00, v of control: -2.44/-1.48) of soil microorganisms reduces the resistance and resilience of ecological communities, which could lead to higher community similarity and more clustered taxonomic assemblages occurring across years. Changes to temperature might increase selection pressure on specialist taxa, which directly causes dominant species (v of warming: -1.63, v of control: -2.49) primarily comprising these taxa to be more strongly impacted by changing temperature than conditionally (v of warming: -1.47, v of control: -1.75) or always rare taxa (v of warming: -0.57, v of control: -1.33). Evaluation of the seasonal rhythms of microorganisms in response to global warming revealed that the variability and stability of different microbial communities in different habitats had dissimilar biological and ecological performances when challenged with an external disturbance. The balance of competition and cooperation, because of environmental selection, also influenced ecosystem function in complex terrestrial ecosystems. Overall, our study enriches the limited information on the temporal variability in microorganism responses to 21 years of global warming, and provides a scientific basis for evaluating the impact of climate warming on the temporal stability of soil ecosystems.

Aridity Gradients Shape Intraspecific Variability of Morphological Traits in Native Ceratonia siliqua L. of Morocco

The carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua L.) is a significant fruit tree in the Mediterranean region with cultural, biological, and ecological importance. Despite its importance, intraspecific trait variability (ITV) in carob trees has been largely overlooked in previous studies. Understanding ITV and its relationship with environmental conditions is crucial for conservation and breeding programs. In this study, we investigated the variability of carob pod and seed-related traits across different ecological scales in 25 studied populations in Morocco. Significant differences in morphological traits were observed between carob populations at various ecological levels, and pod-related traits exhibited greater variability than seed traits. Correlation analysis revealed strong associations between carob morphological traits and environmental conditions, with altitude and aridity index playing an influential role. The aridity gradient was strongly related to changes in pod size, seed number, and size, as well as seed yield. Our findings highlight an important ITV reaching 45% at the intra-population level, 36.5% at the inter-geographic level, and 30% at the inter-population level. Overall, this study contributes valuable insights into the ecology and adaptation of carob trees, emphasizing the importance of considering intraspecific variability when studying this remarkable species. This knowledge is critical for addressing the challenges posed by climate change and human activities on the long-term survival and ecological functioning of carob populations.

The evolution of plasticity at geographic range edges

Phenotypic plasticity enables rapid responses to environmental change, and could facilitate range shifts in response to climate change. What drives the evolution of plasticity at range edges, and the capacity of range-edge individuals to be plastic, remain unclear. Here, we propose that accurately predicting when plasticity itself evolves or mediates adaptive evolution at expanding range edges requires integrating knowledge on the demography and evolution of edge populations. Our synthesis shows that: (i) the demography of edge populations can amplify or attenuate responses to selection for plasticity through diverse pathways, and (ii) demographic effects on plasticity are modified by the stability of range edges. Our spatially explicit synthesis for plasticity has the potential to improve predictions for range shifts with climate change.

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology

Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates

The frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events are increasing and are projected to further increase by the end of the century^1,2. Despite the considerable consequences of temperature extremes on biological systems^3-8, we do not know which species and locations are most exposed worldwide. Here we provide a global assessment of land vertebrates' exposures to future extreme thermal events. We use daily maximum temperature data from 1950 to 2099 to quantify future exposure to high frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme thermal events to land vertebrates. Under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5); 4.4 °C warmer world), 41.0% of all land vertebrates (31.1% mammals, 25.8% birds, 55.5% amphibians and 51.0% reptiles) will be exposed to extreme thermal events beyond their historical levels in at least half their distribution by 2099. Under intermediate-high (SSP3-7.0; 3.6 °C warmer world) and intermediate (SSP2-4.5; 2.7 °C warmer world) emission scenarios, estimates for all vertebrates are 28.8% and 15.1%, respectively. Importantly, a low-emission future (SSP1-2.6, 1.8 °C warmer world) will greatly reduce the overall exposure of vertebrates (6.1% of species) and can fully prevent exposure in many species assemblages. Mid-latitude assemblages (desert, shrubland, and grassland biomes), rather than tropics^9,10, will face the most severe exposure to future extreme thermal events. By 2099, under SSP5-8.5, on average 3,773 species of land vertebrates (11.2%) will face extreme thermal events for more than half a year period. Overall, future extreme thermal events will force many species and assemblages into constant severe thermal stress. Deep greenhouse gas emissions cuts are urgently needed to limit species' exposure to thermal extremes.

Local-scale impacts of extreme events drive demographic asynchrony in neighbouring top predator populations

Extreme weather events are among the most critical aspects of climate change, but our understanding of their impacts on biological populations remains limited. Here, we exploit the rare opportunity provided by the availability of concurrent longitudinal demographic data on two neighbouring marine top predator populations (the black-browed albatross, Thalassarche melanophris, breeding in two nearby colonies) hit by an exceptionally violent storm during one study year. The aim of this study is to quantify the demographic impacts of extreme events on albatrosses and test the hypothesis that extreme events would synchronously decrease survival rates of neighbouring populations. Using demographic modelling we found that, contrary to our expectation, the storm affected the survival of albatrosses from only one of the two colonies, more than doubling the annual mortality rate compared to the study average. Furthermore, the effects of storms on adult survival would lead to substantial population declines (up to 2% per year) under simulated scenarios of increased storm frequencies. We, therefore, conclude that extreme events can result in very different local-scale impacts on sympatric populations. Crucially, by driving demographic asynchrony, extreme events can hamper our understanding of the demographic responses of wild populations to mean, long-term shifts in climate.

Phenological mismatches and the demography of solitary bees

Species respond idiosyncratically to environmental variation, which may generate phenological mismatches. We assess the consequences of such mismatches for solitary bees. During 9 years, we studied flowering phenology and nesting phenology and demography of five wood-nesting solitary bee species representing a broad gradient of specialization/generalization in the use of floral resources. We found that the reproductive performance and population growth rate of bees tended to be lower with increasing nesting-flowering mismatches, except for the most generalized bee species. Our findings help elucidate the role of phenological mismatches for the demography of wild pollinators, which perform key ecosystem functions and provide important services for humanity. Furthermore, if climate change increases phenological mismatches in this system, we expect negative consequences of climate change for specialist bees.

Contributions of phenotypic integration, plasticity and genetic adaptation to adaptive capacity relating to drought in Banksia marginata (Proteaceae)

The frequency and intensity of drought events are predicted to increase because of climate change, threatening biodiversity and terrestrial ecosystems in many parts of the world. Drought has already led to declines in functionally important tree species, which are documented in dieback events, shifts in species distributions, local extinctions, and compromised ecosystem function. Understanding whether tree species possess the capacity to adapt to future drought conditions is a major conservation challenge. In this study, we assess the capacity of a functionally important plant species from south-eastern Australia (Banksia marginata, Proteaceae) to adapt to water-limited environments. A water-manipulated common garden experiment was used to test for phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation in seedlings sourced from seven provenances of contrasting climate-origins (wet and dry). We found evidence of local adaptation relating to plant growth investment strategies with populations from drier climate-origins showing greater growth in well-watered conditions. The results also revealed that environment drives variation in physiological (stomatal conductance, predawn and midday water potential) and structural traits (wood density, leaf dry matter content). Finally, these results indicate that traits are coordinated to optimize conservation of water under water-limited conditions and that trait coordination (phenotypic integration) does not constrain phenotypic plasticity. Overall, this study provides evidence for adaptive capacity relating to drought conditions in B. marginata, and a basis for predicting the response to climate change in this functionally important plant species.

Acute, diel, and annual temperature variability and the thermal biology of ectotherms

Global warming is increasing mean temperatures and altering temperature variability at multiple temporal scales. To better understand the consequences of changes in thermal variability for ectotherms it is necessary to consider thermal variation at different time scales (i.e., acute, diel, and annual) and the responses of organisms within and across generations. Thermodynamics constrain acute responses to temperature, but within these constraints and over longer time periods, organisms have the scope to adaptively acclimate or evolve. Yet, hypotheses and predictions about responses to future warming tend not to explicitly consider the temporal scale at which temperature varies. Here, focusing on multicellular ectothermic animals, we argue that consideration of multiple processes and constraints associated with various timescales is necessary to better understand how altered thermal variability because of climate change will affect ectotherms.

Dominant and Priming Role of Waterlogging in Tomato at e[CO2] by Multivariate Analysis

The frequency of waterlogging episodes has increased due to unpredictable and intense rainfalls. However, less is known about waterlogging memory and its interaction with other climate change events, such as elevated CO₂ concentration (e[CO₂]). This study investigated the combined effects of e[CO₂] and two rounds of waterlogging stress on the growth of cultivated tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and wild tomato (S. pimpinellifolium). The aim is to elucidate the interaction between genotypes and environmental factors and thereby to improve crop resilience to climate change. We found that two rounds of treatments appeared to induce different acclimation strategies of the two tomato genotypes. S. pimpinellifolium responded more negatively to the first-time waterlogging than S. lycopersicum, as indicated by decreased photosynthesis and biomass loss. Nevertheless, the two genotypes respond similarly when waterlogging stress recurred, showing that they could maintain a higher leaf photosynthesis compared to single stress, especially for the wild genotype. This showed that waterlogging priming played a positive role in stress memory in both tomato genotypes. Multivariate analysis showed that waterlogging played a dominant role when combined with [CO₂] for both the cultivated and wild tomato genotypes. This work will benefit agricultural production strategies by pinpointing the positive effects of e[CO₂] and waterlogging memory.

Local adaptation of seed and seedling traits along a natural aridity gradient may both predict and constrain adaptive responses to climate change

PREMISE

Variation in seed and seedling traits underlies how plants interact with their environment during establishment, a crucial life history stage. We quantified genetic-based variation in seed and seedling traits in populations of the annual plant Plantago patagonica across a natural aridity gradient, leveraging natural intraspecific variation to predict how populations might evolve in response to increasing aridity associated with climate change in the Southwestern U.S.

METHODS

We quantified seed size, seed size variation, germination timing, and specific leaf area in a greenhouse common garden, and related these traits to the climates of source populations. We then conducted a terminal drought experiment to determine which traits were most predictive of survival under early-season drought.

RESULTS

All traits showed evidence of clinal variation-seed size decreased, germination timing accelerated, and specific leaf area increased with increasing aridity. Populations with more variable historical precipitation regimes showed greater variation in seed size, suggestive of past selection shaping a diversified bet-hedging strategy mediated by seed size. Seedling height, achieved via larger seeds or earlier germination, was a significant predictor of survival under drought.

CONCLUSIONS

We documented substantial interspecific trait variation as well as clinal variation in several important seed and seedling traits, yet these slopes were often opposite to predictions for how individual traits might confer drought tolerance. This work shows that plant populations may adapt to increasing aridity via correlated trait responses associated with alternative life history strategies, but that trade-offs might constrain adaptive responses in individual traits.

Salinity, waterlogging, and elevated [CO2] interact to induce complex responses in cultivated and wild tomato

The effects of individual climatic factors on crops are well documented, whereas the interaction of such factors in combination has received less attention. The frequency of salinity and waterlogging stress is increasing with climate change, accompanied by elevated CO2 concentration (e[CO2]). This study explored how these three variables interacted and affected two tomato genotypes. Cultivated and wild tomato (Solanum lycopersicum and Solanum pimpinellifolium) were grown at ambient [CO2] and e[CO2], and subjected to salinity, waterlogging, and combined stress. Leaf photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, quenching analysis, pigment, and plant growth were analyzed. The response of tomatoes depended on both genotype and stress type. In cultivated tomato, photosynthesis was inhibited by salinity and combined stress, whereas in wild tomato, both salinity and waterlogging stress, alone and in combination, decreased photosynthesis. e[CO2] increased photosynthesis and biomass of cultivated tomato under salinity and combined stress compared with ambient [CO2]. Differences between tomato genotypes in response to individual and combined stress were observed in key photosynthetic and growth parameters. Hierarchical clustering and principal component analysis revealed genetic variations of tomatoes responding to the three climatic factors. Understanding the interacting effects of salinity and waterlogging with e[CO2] in tomato will facilitate improvement of crop resilience to climate change.

Weak effects on growth and cannibalism under fluctuating temperatures in damselfly larvae

The Earth’s climate is changing with a trend towards higher mean temperatures and increased temperature fluctuations. Little attention has been paid to the effects of thermal variation on competition within species. Understanding the temperature-dependence of competition is important since it might affect dynamics within and between populations. In a laboratory experiment we investigated the effects of thermal variation on growth and cannibalism in larvae of a damselfly. The temperature treatments included three amplitudes between 20 and 26 °C with an average of 23 °C, and a constant control at 23 °C. Larvae were also raised at five constant temperatures for an estimation of the thermal performance curve, which showed that the thermal optimum for growth was 26.9 °C. Cannibalism was significantly positively correlated with initial body size variance. There was neither a difference among the temperature variation treatments, nor between the constant and the variation treatments in growth and cannibalism. Hence, positive and negative effects of temperature variation within the linear range of a species thermal performance curve might cancel each other out. Since our study mimicked natural temperature conditions, we suggest that the increase in temperature variation predicted by climate models will not necessarily differ from the effects without an increase in variation.

Trans- and Within-Generational Developmental Plasticity May Benefit the Prey but Not Its Predator during Heat Waves

Theoretically, parents can adjust vital offspring traits to the irregular and rapid occurrence of heat waves via developmental plasticity. However, the direction and strength of such trait modifications are often species-specific. Here, we investigated within-generational plasticity (WGP) and trans-generational plasticity (TGP) effects induced by heat waves during the offspring development of the predator Phytoseiulus persimilis and its herbivorous prey, the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, to assess plastic developmental modifications. Single offspring individuals with different parental thermal origin (reared under mild or extreme heat waves) of both species were exposed to mild or extreme heat waves until adulthood, and food consumption, age and size at maturity were recorded. The offspring traits were influenced by within-generational plasticity (WGP), trans-generational plasticity (TGP), non-plastic trans-generational effects (TGE) and/or their interactions. When exposed to extreme heat waves, both species speeded up development (exclusively WGP), consumed more (due to the fact of WGP but also to TGP in prey females and to non-plastic TGE in predator males), and predator females got smaller (non-plastic TGE and WGP), whereas prey males and females were equally sized irrespective of their origin, because TGE, WGP and TGP acted in opposite directions. The body sizes of predator males were insensitive to parental and offspring heat wave conditions. Species comparisons indicated stronger reductions in the developmental time and reduced female predator-prey body size ratios in favor of the prey under extreme heat waves. Further investigations are needed to evaluate, whether trait modifications result in lowered suppression success of the predator on its prey under heat waves or not.

Biotic responses to climate extremes in terrestrial ecosystems

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the incidence of climate extremes. Consequences of climate extremes on biodiversity can be highly detrimental, yet few studies also suggest beneficial effects of climate extremes on certain organisms. To obtain a general understanding of ecological responses to climate extremes, we present a review of how 16 major taxonomic/functional groups (including microorganisms, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates) respond during extreme drought, precipitation, and temperature. Most taxonomic/functional groups respond negatively to extreme events, whereas groups such as mosses, legumes, trees, and vertebrate predators respond most negatively to climate extremes. We further highlight that ecological recovery after climate extremes is challenging to predict purely based on ecological responses during or immediately after climate extremes. By accounting for the characteristics of the recovering species, resource availability, and species interactions with neighboring competitors or facilitators, mutualists, and enemies, we outline a conceptual framework to better predict ecological recovery in terrestrial ecosystems.

Daily temperature fluctuations can magnify the toxicity of pesticides

We review the effect of daily temperature fluctuations (DTF), a key thermal factor predicted to increase under climate change, on pesticide toxicity. The effect of DTF on pesticide toxicity may be explained by: (i) a DTF-specific mechanism (caused by Jensen's inequality) and (ii) general mechanisms underlying an increased pesticide toxicity at both higher (increased energetic costs, pesticide uptake and metabolic conversion) and lower constant temperatures (lower organismal metabolic and associated elimination rates, increased sodium channel modulated nervous system vulnerability and energetic costs). Furthermore, DTF may enhance pesticide-induced reductions in heat tolerance due to stronger effects on oxygen demand (increase) and oxygen supply (decrease). Our literature review showed considerable support that DTF increase the negative impact of pesticides on insects, especially in terms of decreased survival. Therefore, we suggest that considering DTF in ecotoxicological studies may be of great importance to better protect biodiversity in our warming world.

Climate variability and aridity modulate the role of leaf shelters for arthropods: A global experiment

Current climate change is disrupting biotic interactions and eroding biodiversity worldwide. However, species sensitive to aridity, high temperatures, and climate variability might find shelter in microclimatic refuges, such as leaf rolls built by arthropods. To explore how the importance of leaf shelters for terrestrial arthropods changes with latitude, elevation, and climate, we conducted a distributed experiment comparing arthropods in leaf rolls versus control leaves across 52 sites along an 11,790 km latitudinal gradient. We then probed the impact of short- versus long-term climatic impacts on roll use, by comparing the relative impact of conditions during the experiment versus average, baseline conditions at the site. Leaf shelters supported larger organisms and higher arthropod biomass and species diversity than non-rolled control leaves. However, the magnitude of the leaf rolls' effect differed between long- and short-term climate conditions, metrics (species richness, biomass, and body size), and trophic groups (predators vs. herbivores). The effect of leaf rolls on predator richness was influenced only by baseline climate, increasing in magnitude in regions experiencing increased long-term aridity, regardless of latitude, elevation, and weather during the experiment. This suggests that shelter use by predators may be innate, and thus, driven by natural selection. In contrast, the effect of leaf rolls on predator biomass and predator body size decreased with increasing temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation, respectively, during the experiment. The magnitude of shelter usage by herbivores increased with the abundance of predators and decreased with increasing temperature during the experiment. Taken together, these results highlight that leaf roll use may have both proximal and ultimate causes. Projected increases in climate variability and aridity are, therefore, likely to increase the importance of biotic refugia in mitigating the effects of climate change on species persistence.

Consistent temperature-dependent patterns of leaf lifespan across spatial and temporal gradients for deciduous trees in Europe

Temperature affects leaf lifespan (LL) across either space or time, driving long-term adaptation and short-term thermal acclimation, respectively. However, a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon and the underlying phenological mechanisms remain poorly understood. The present study investigated the relationship between LL and temperature in six common deciduous trees across both spatial and temporal gradients, then explained the LL variation patterns based on phenological shifts. Using long-term (1971-2000) phenological records of six deciduous tree species at 54 sites across central Europe, we analyzed spatial and temporal variations of LL and leaf phenology along temperature gradients. We assessed the relative contribution of phenological shifts to LL variations by comparing absolute changes in leaf-out and leaf fall. We reported positive LL-temperature relationships across all observations along both spatial (+3.32 days/°C) and temporal (+4.43 days/°C) gradients. The paired t-test of the six deciduous tree species showed no significant difference in regression slopes of LL- temperature between the two gradients (t = -1.50, df = 5, P = 0.194). Prolonged LL can be explained mainly by earlier leaf-out induced by warmer temperatures both spatially (-3.22 days/°C) and temporally (-4.08 days/°C). The converging temperature-dependent patterns of LL across time and space indicate that short-term thermal acclimation keeps pace with long-term genetic adaptation for deciduous trees in Europe. Earlier leaf-out is the key force shaping the LL-temperature relationship. These results provide insights for predicting future vegetation dynamics under global warming.

Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories

Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.

Impact of fluctuating developmental temperatures on phenotypic traits in reptiles: a meta-analysis

During the vulnerable stages of early life, most ectothermic animals experience hourly and diel fluctuations in temperature as air temperatures change. While we know a great deal about how different constant temperatures impact the phenotypes of developing ectotherms, we know remarkably little about the impacts of temperature fluctuations on the development of ectotherms. In this study, we used a meta-analytic approach to compare the mean and variance of phenotypic outcomes from constant and fluctuating incubation temperatures across reptile species. We found that fluctuating temperatures provided a small benefit (higher hatching success and shorter incubation durations) at cool mean temperatures compared with constant temperatures, but had a negative effect at warm mean temperatures. In addition, more extreme temperature fluctuations led to greater reductions in embryonic survival compared with moderate temperature fluctuations. Within the limited data available from species with temperature-dependent sex determination, embryos had a higher chance of developing as female when developing in fluctuating temperatures compared with those developing in constant temperatures. With our meta-analytic approach, we identified average mean nest temperatures across all taxa where reptiles switch from receiving benefits to incurring costs when incubation temperatures fluctuate. More broadly, our study indicates that the impact of fluctuating developmental temperature on some phenotypes in ectothermic taxa are likely to be predictable via integration of developmental temperature profiles with thermal performance curves.

Rapid Adjustments in Thermal Tolerance and the Metabolome to Daily Environmental Changes - A Field Study on the Arctic Seed Bug Nysius groenlandicus

Laboratory investigations on terrestrial model-species, typically of temperate origin, have demonstrated that terrestrial ectotherms can cope with daily temperature variations through rapid hardening responses. However, few studies have investigated this ability and its physiological basis in the field. Especially in polar regions, where the temporal and spatial temperature variations can be extreme, are hardening responses expected to be important. Here, we examined diurnal adjustments in heat and cold tolerance in the Greenlandic seed bug Nysius groenlandicus by collecting individuals for thermal assessment at different time points within and across days. We found a significant correlation between observed heat or cold tolerance and the ambient microhabitat temperatures at the time of capture, indicating that N. groenlandicus continuously and within short time-windows respond physiologically to thermal changes and/or other environmental variables in their microhabitats. Secondly, we assessed underlying metabolomic fingerprints using GC-MS metabolomics in a subset of individuals collected during days with either low or high temperature variation. Concentrations of metabolites, including sugars, polyols, and free amino acids varied significantly with time of collection. For instance, we detected elevated sugar levels in animals caught at the lowest daily field temperatures. Polyol concentrations were lower in individuals collected in the morning and evening and higher at midday and afternoon, possibly reflecting changes in temperature. Additionally, changes in concentrations of metabolites associated with energetic metabolism were observed across collection times. Our findings suggest that in these extreme polar environments hardening responses are marked and likely play a crucial role for coping with microhabitat temperature variation on a daily scale, and that metabolite levels are actively altered on a daily basis.

Phenotypic Variation in European Wild Pear (Pyrus pyraster (L.) Burgsd.) Populations in the North-Western Part of the Balkan Peninsula

Leaves play a central role in plant fitness, allowing efficient light capture, gas exchange and thermoregulation, ensuring optimal growing conditions for the plant. Phenotypic variability in leaf shape and size has been linked to environmental heterogeneity and habitat characteristics. Therefore, the study of foliar morphology in plant populations can help us to identify the environmental factors that may have influenced the process of species diversification. In this study, we used European wild pear (Pyrus pyraster (L.) Burgsd., Rosaceae) as a model species to investigate the phenotypic variability of leaves under different environmental conditions. Using leaf morphometric data from 19 natural populations from the north-western part of the Balkan Peninsula, a high level of variability among and within populations were found. Leaf traits related to leaf size were more variable compared to leaf shape traits, with both influenced by geographic and environmental factors. Consequently, patterns of isolation by environment (IBE) and distance (IBD) were identified, with IBE showing a stronger influence on leaf variability. Multivariate statistical analysis revealed that European wild pear populations from the north-western part of the Balkan Peninsula can be divided into two morphological clusters, consistent with their geographical distance and environmental conditions. Our results confirm a high level of phenotypic variability in European wild pear populations, providing additional data on this poorly studied species, emphasizing phenotypic plasticity as a major driver in the adaptation of this noble hardwood species to rapid climate change.

Season-sex interaction induces changes in the ecophysiological traits of a lizard in a high altitude cold desert, Puna region

Functional traits are those characteristics of organisms that influence the ability of a species to develop in a habitat and persist in the face of environmental changes. The traits are often affected by a multiplicity of species-dependent and external factors. Our objective was to investigate thermal biology of Liolaemus ruibali in a high altitude cold desert at the arid Puna region, Argentina. We address the following question: do sex and seasonal variations in environmental temperature induce changes in the ecophysiological traits? We measured and compared the operative temperatures between fall and spring; and between sexes and seasons, we compared the ecophysiological traits of lizards, microenvironmental temperatures and thermoregulatory behavior. Air and operative temperatures were different between seasons. We found an effect of season-sex interaction on field body temperatures, preferred temperatures, panting threshold and thermal quality. The voluntary and critical temperatures presented seasonal variation in relation to changes in environmental temperatures, suggesting thermal acclimatization. We note behavioral changes between seasons, with the substrate being the main resource for gaining heat in spring. We conclude that Liolaemus ruibali is an efficient thermoregulator; it is a eurythermic lizard and presents phenotypic plasticity in different ecophysiological and behavioral traits induced by sex and seasonality. In addition, we predict that this population could buffer the effects of projected global warming scenarios.

Applying genomics in assisted migration under climate change: Framework, empirical applications, and case studies

The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species' adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomic techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, and local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.

Differential Response of Leafminer Flies Liriomyza trifolii (Burgess) and Liriomyza sativae (Blanchard) to Rapid Cold Hardening

Simple Summary

Liriomyza trifolii (Burgess) and L. sativae (Blanchard) are closely-related, polyphagous leafminers that occur worldwide and presumably compete with each other. In this study, we evaluated the response of pupae and adults from both species to acute (2 h) cold exposures. The results were used to identify the lethal temperature for 80% of the population (LT80) for each species. In a separate set of experiments, insects were cooled to one of six nonlethal temperatures (0–5 °C) for 4 h and then cooled to the LT80 for 2 h to evaluate their rapid cold hardening (RCH) response. L. trifolii exhibited stronger cold tolerance than L. sativae; furthermore, the supercooling point of L. trifolii was significantly lower than that of L. sativae. RCH was induced in pupae of both species at a range of low temperatures (0–5 °C), and L. sativae pupae showed a more robust RCH response (e.g., lower supercooling pointand more durable RCH) than L. trifolii pupae. Our results indicate that subtle differences in RCH and basal cold tolerance impact the competitiveness of the two leafminers.

Abstract

Rapid cold hardening (RCH) is a rapid and critical adaption of insects to sudden temperature changes but is often overlooked or underestimated as a component of survival. Thus, interspecific comparisons of RCH are needed to predict how phenotypes will adapt to temperature variability. RCH not only enhances cold survival but also protects against non-lethal cold injury by preserving essential functions such as locomotion, reproduction, and energy balance. This study investigated the difference in basal cold tolerance and RCH capacity of L. trifolii and L. sativae. In both species, the cold tolerance of pupae was significantly enhanced after short-term exposure to moderately cold temperatures. The effect of RCH last for 4 h in L. sativae but only 2 h in L. trifolii. Interestingly, L. trifolii adults had a RCH response but L. sativae adults failed to acclimate. Short-term acclimation also lowered the supercooling point significantly in the pupae of both species. Based on these results, we propose a hypothesis that these differences will eventually affect their competition in the context of climate change. This study also provides the basis for future metabolomic and transcriptomic studies that may ultimately uncover the underlying mechanisms of RCH and interspecific competition between L. trifolii and L. sativae.

Associating Land Cover Changes with Patterns of Incidences of Climate-Sensitive Infections: An Example on Tick-Borne Diseases in the Nordic Area

Some of the climate-sensitive infections (CSIs) affecting humans are zoonotic vector-borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis (BOR) and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), mostly linked to various species of ticks as vectors. Due to climate change, the geographical distribution of tick species, their hosts, and the prevalence of pathogens are likely to change. A recent increase in human incidences of these CSIs in the Nordic regions might indicate an expansion of the range of ticks and hosts, with vegetation changes acting as potential predictors linked to habitat suitability. In this paper, we study districts in Fennoscandia and Russia where incidences of BOR and TBE have steadily increased over the 1995-2015 period (defined as 'Well Increasing districts'). This selection is taken as a proxy for increasing the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens due to increased habitat suitability for ticks and hosts, thus simplifying the multiple factors that explain incidence variations. This approach allows vegetation types and strengths of correlation specific to the WI districts to be differentiated and compared with associations found over all districts. Land cover types and their changes found to be associated with increasing human disease incidence are described, indicating zones with potential future higher risk of these diseases. Combining vegetation cover and climate variables in regression models shows the interplay of biotic and abiotic factors linked to CSI incidences and identifies some differences between BOR and TBE. Regression model projections up until 2070 under different climate scenarios depict possible CSI progressions within the studied area and are consistent with the observed changes over the past 20 years.

Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions

As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.

Antagonistic effects of long- and short-term environmental variation on species coexistence

Assessing the impact of environmental fluctuations on species coexistence is critical for understanding biodiversity loss and the ecological impacts of climate change. Yet determining how properties like the intensity, frequency or duration of environmental fluctuations influence species coexistence remains challenging, presumably because previous studies have focused on indefinite coexistence. Here, we model the impact of environmental fluctuations at different temporal scales on species coexistence over a finite time period by employing the concepts of time-windowed averaging and performance curves to incorporate temporal niche differences within a stochastic Lotka-Volterra model. We discover that short- and long-term environmental variability has contrasting effects on transient species coexistence, such that short-term variation favours species coexistence, whereas long-term variation promotes competitive exclusion. This dichotomy occurs because small samples (e.g. environmental changes over long time periods) are more likely to show large deviations from the expected mean and are more difficult to predict than large samples (e.g. environmental changes over short time periods), as described in the central limit theorem. Consequently, we show that the complex set of relationships among environmental fluctuations and species coexistence found in previous studies can all be synthesized within a general framework by explicitly considering both long- and short-term environmental variation.

Declines in rodent abundance and diversity track regional climate variability in North American drylands

Regional long-term monitoring can enhance the detection of biodiversity declines associated with climate change, improving future projections by reducing reliance on space-for-time substitution and increasing scalability. Rodents are diverse and important consumers in drylands, regions defined by the scarcity of water that cover 45% of Earth's land surface and face increasingly drier and more variable climates. We analyzed abundance data for 22 rodent species across grassland, shrubland, ecotone, and woodland ecosystems in the southwestern USA. Two time series (1995-2006 and 2004-2013) coincided with phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which influences drought in southwestern North America. Regionally, rodent species diversity declined 20%-35%, with greater losses during the later time period. Abundance also declined regionally, but only during 2004-2013, with losses of 5% of animals captured. During the first time series (wetter climate), plant productivity outranked climate variables as the best regional predictor of rodent abundance for 70% of taxa, whereas during the second period (drier climate), climate best explained variation in abundance for 60% of taxa. Temporal dynamics in diversity and abundance differed spatially among ecosystems, with the largest declines in woodlands and shrublands of central New Mexico and Colorado. Which species were winners or losers under increasing drought and amplified interannual variability in drought depended on ecosystem type and the phase of the PDO. Fewer taxa were significant winners (18%) than losers (30%) under drought, but the identities of winners and losers differed among ecosystems for 70% of taxa. Our results suggest that the sensitivities of rodent species to climate contributed to regional declines in diversity and abundance during 1995-2013. Whether these changes portend future declines in drought-sensitive consumers in the southwestern USA will depend on the climate during the next major PDO cycle.

Phenotypic integration does not constrain phenotypic plasticity: differential plasticity of traits is associated to their integration across environments

Understanding constraints to phenotypic plasticity is key given its role on the response of organisms to environmental change. It has been suggested that phenotypic integration, the structure of trait covariation, could limit trait plasticity. However, the relationship between plasticity and integration is far from resolved. Using a database of functional plasticity to drought of a Mediterranean shrub that included 20 ecophysiological traits, we assessed environmentally-induced changes in phenotypic integration and whether integration constrained the expression of plasticity, accounting for the within-environment phenotypic variation of traits. Furthermore, we provide the first test of the association between differential trait plasticity and trait integration across an optimum and a stressful environment. Phenotypic plasticity was positively associated with phenotypic integration in both environments, but this relationship was lost when phenotypic variation was considered. The similarity in the plastic response of two traits predicted their integration across environments, with integrated traits having more similar plasticity. Such variation in the plasticity of traits partly explained the lower phenotypic integration found in the stressful environment. We found no evidence that integration may constitute an internal constraint to plasticity. Rather, we present the first empirical demonstration that differences in plastic responses may involve a major reorganization of the relationships among traits, and challenge the notion that stress generally induces a tighter phenotype.

Diel pCO2 fluctuations alter the molecular response of coral reef fishes to ocean acidification conditions

Environmental partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂ ) variation can modify the responses of marine organisms to ocean acidification, yet the underlying mechanisms for this effect remain unclear. On coral reefs, environmental pCO₂  fluctuates on a regular day-night cycle. Effects of future ocean acidification on coral reef fishes might therefore depend on their response to this diel cycle of pCO₂ . To evaluate the effects on the brain molecular response, we exposed two common reef fishes (Acanthochromis polyacanthus and Amphiprion percula) to two projected future pCO₂  levels (750 and 1,000 µatm) under both stable and diel fluctuating conditions. We found a common signature to stable elevated pCO₂ for both species, which included the downregulation of immediate early genes, indicating lower brain activity. The transcriptional programme was more strongly affected by higher average pCO₂ in a stable treatment than for fluctuating treatments, but the largest difference in molecular response was between stable and fluctuating pCO₂ treatments. This indicates that a response to a change in environmental pCO₂ conditions is different for organisms living in a fluctuating than in stable environments. This differential regulation was related to steroid hormones and circadian rhythm (CR). Both species exhibited a marked difference in the expression of CR genes among pCO₂ treatments, possibly accommodating a more flexible adaptive approach in the response to environmental changes. Our results suggest that environmental pCO₂  fluctuations might enable reef fishes to phase-shift their clocks and anticipate pCO₂ changes, thereby avoiding impairments and more successfully adjust to ocean acidification conditions.