Protected areas are now the last strongholds for many imperiled mammal species

The socioeconomic and environmental niche of protected areas reveals global conservation gaps and opportunities

The global network of protected areas has rapidly expanded in the past decade and is expected to cover at least 30% of land and sea by 2030 to halt biodiversity erosion. Yet, the distribution of protected areas is highly heterogeneous on Earth and the social-environmental preconditions enabling or hindering protected area establishment remain poorly understood. Here, using fourteen socioeconomic and environmental factors, we characterize the multidimensional niche of terrestrial and marine protected areas, which we use to accurately establish, at the global scale, whether a particular location has preconditions favourable for paestablishment. We reveal that protected areas, particularly the most restrictive ones, over-aggregate where human development and the number of non-governmental organizations are high. Based on the spatial distribution of vertebrates and the likelihood to convert non-protected areas into strictly protected areas, we identify 'potential' versus 'unrealistic' conservation gains on land and sea, which we define as areas of high vertebrate diversity that are, respectively, favourable and unfavourable to protected area establishment. Where protected areas are unrealistic, alternative strategies such as other effective area-based conservation measures or privately protected areas, could deliver conservation outcomes.

Ability of new protected areas to counteract losses from downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement

Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement (PADDD) is a common occurrence. Although PADDD is expected to weaken biodiversity protection, PADDD offsets and new unrelated protected areas (PAs) could help restore representation of biodiversity features to the reserve network affected by PADDD. Globally, we analyzed 16 territories with terrestrial PADDD and 4 territories with marine PADDD from 2011 to 2020. Our objective was to evaluate whether PADDD offsets and new PAs could restore the PAs, key biodiversity areas (KBAs), ecoregions, and threatened amphibian, mammal, bird, and reptile species ranges where PADDD had occurred. In our studied territories, offsets of PADDD were rare (enacted in 3 [19%] terrestrial territories and one [25%] marine territory). One territory had PADDD losses that were compensated fully by PADDD offsets in terms of area coverage and ecoregions represented. All other territories failed to achieve compensation goals. In territories affected by PADDD, PADDD offsets and new PAs partially restored area representation (63%) and KBA coverage (57%). However, only 38% of ecoregion representation and 20%, 33%, 31%, and 21% of threatened amphibian, mammal, bird, and reptile representation, respectively, were restored. Overall, we found a large shortfall in PADDD offsets, even when unrelated PAs were included in the calculus. There is an urgent need to expand PADDD offsets and PAs to advance biodiversity conservation and achieve the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30×30 target. Future planning of newly enacted conservation areas needs to prioritize biodiversity conservation and consider the purpose of restoring reserve networks affected by PADDD, rather than solely focusing on areal targets.

Mammal recovery inside and outside terrestrial protected areas

Protected areas are a key component of global conservation, and the world is aiming to increase protected areas to cover 30% of land and water through the 30 × 30 Initiative under the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. However, factors affecting their success or failure in regard to promoting mammal population recovery are not well studied, particularly using quantitative approaches comparing across diverse taxa, biomes, and countries. To better understand how protected areas contribute to mammalian recovery, we conducted an analysis of 2706 mammal populations both inside and outside of protected areas worldwide. We calculated the annual percent change of mammal populations within and outside of terrestrial protected areas and examined the relationship between the percent change and a suite of human and natural characteristics including biome, region, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) protected area category, IUCN Red List classification, and taxonomic order. Our results show that overall mammal populations inside and outside of protected areas are relatively stable. It appears that Threatened mammals are doing better inside of protected areas than outside, whereas the opposite is true for species of least concern and Near Threatened species. We also found significant population increases in protected areas classified as category III and significant population decreases in protected and unprotected areas throughout Oceania. Our results demonstrate that terrestrial protected areas can be an important approach for mammalian recovery and conservation.

Analysis of the Mitochondrial COI Gene and Genetic Diversity of Endangered Goose Breeds

The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) genes of six endangered goose breeds (Xupu, Yangjiang, Yan, Wuzong, Baizi, and Lingxian) were sequenced and compared to assess the genetic diversity of endangered goose breeds. By constructing phylogenetic trees and evolutionary maps of genetic relationships, the affinities and degrees of genetic variations among the six different breeds were revealed. A total of 92 polymorphic sites were detected in the 741 bp sequence of the mtDNA COI gene after shear correction, and the GC content of the processed sequence (51.11%) was higher than that of the AT content (48.89%). The polymorphic loci within the populations of five of the six breeds (Xupu, Yangjiang, Yan, Baizi, and Lingxian) were more than 10, the haplotype diversity > 0.5, and the nucleotide diversity (Pi) > 0.005, with the Baizi geese being the exception. A total of 35 haplotypes were detected based on nucleotide variation among sequences, and the goose breed haplotypes showed a central star-shaped dispersion; the FST values were -0.03781 to 0.02645, The greatest genetic differentiation (FST = 0.02645) was observed in Yan and Wuzong breeds. The most frequent genetic exchange (Nm > 15.00) was between the Wuzong and Yangjiang geese. An analysis of molecular variance showed that the population genetic variation mainly came from within the population; the base mismatch differential distribution analysis of the goose breeds and the Tajima's D and Fu's Fs neutral detection of the historical occurrence dynamics of their populations were negative (p > 0.10). The distribution curve of the base mismatches showed a multimodal peak, which indicated that the population tended to be stabilised. These results provide important genetic information for the conservation and management of endangered goose breeds and a scientific basis for the development of effective conservation strategies.

Establishing a protected area network in Xinlong with other effective area-based conservation measures

Protected areas (PAs) are pivotal to biodiversity conservation, yet their efficacy is compromised by insufficient funding and management. So-called other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) present a paradigm shift and address PA limitations. Such measures can expand conservation areas, enhance connectivity, and improve the existing system. To assess the conservation status of biodiversity in Tibetan cultural areas in China, we investigated the spatial distribution of wildlife vulnerable to human disturbance (large- and medium-sized mammals and terrestrial birds) in Xinlong, a traditional Tibetan cultural area. In particular, we compared a PA (Xionglongxi Nature Reserve) and OECMs targeting species conservation. We also investigated the relationship of wildlife with human temporal and spatial activities. The OECMs complemented areas not covered by PA, especially in rich understory biodiversity regions. More species in OECMs tolerated human presence than species in the PA. Existing biodiversity reserves failed to cover areas of high conservation value in Tibet and offered limited protection capacity. Expanding PAs and identifying OECMs improved Xinlong's system by covering most biodiversity hotspots. Building on the tradition of wildlife conservation in Tibet, harnessing OECMs may be an effective means of augmenting biodiversity conservation capacity. We recommend further evaluation of OECMs effectiveness and coverage in Tibetan area as a way to enhance the current PA system.

Scaling up area-based conservation to implement the Global Biodiversity Framework's 30x30 target: The role of Nature's Strongholds

The Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), signed in 2022 by Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, recognized the importance of area-based conservation, and its goals and targets specify the characteristics of protected and conserved areas (PCAs) that disproportionately contribute to biodiversity conservation. To achieve the GBF's target of conserving a global area of 30% by 2030, this Essay argues for recognizing these characteristics and scaling them up through the conservation of areas that are: extensive (typically larger than 5,000 km2); have interconnected PCAs (either physically or as part of a jurisdictional network, and frequently embedded in larger conservation landscapes); have high ecological integrity; and are effectively managed and equitably governed. These areas are presented as "Nature's Strongholds," illustrated by examples from the Congo and Amazon basins. Conserving Nature's Strongholds offers an approach to scale up initiatives to address global threats to biodiversity.

How do invasive predators and their native prey respond to prescribed fire?

Fire shapes animal communities by altering resource availability and species interactions, including between predators and prey. In Australia, there is particular concern that two highly damaging invasive predators, the feral cat (Felis catus) and European red fox (Vulpes vulpes), increase their activity in recently burnt areas and exert greater predation pressure on the native prey due to their increased exposure. We tested how prescribed fire occurrence and extent, along with fire history, vegetation, topography, and distance to anthropogenic features (towns and farms), affected the activity (detection frequency) of cats, foxes, and the native mammal community in south-eastern Australia. We used camera traps to quantify mammal activity before and after a prescribed burn and statistically tested how the fire interacted with these habitat variables to affect mammal activity. We found little evidence that the prescribed fire influenced the activity of cats and foxes and no evidence of an effect on kangaroo or small mammal (<800 g) activity. Medium-sized mammals (800-2000 g) were negatively associated with prescribed fire extent, suggesting that prescribed fire has a negative impact on these species in the short term. The lack of a clear activity increase from cats and foxes is likely a positive outcome from a fire management perspective. However, we highlight that their response is likely dependent upon factors like fire size, severity, and prey availability. Future experiments should incorporate GPS-trackers to record fine-scale movements of cats and foxes in temperate ecosystems immediately before and after prescribed fire to best inform management within protected areas.

Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change

Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land-use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%-16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land-use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human-wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.

Genome-wide diversity, population structure and signatures of inbreeding in the African buffalo in Mozambique

The African buffalo, Syncerus caffer, is a key species in African ecosystems. Like other large herbivores, it plays a fundamental role in its habitat acting as an ecosystem engineer. Over the last few centuries, African buffalo populations have declined because of range contraction and demographic decline caused by direct or indirect human activities. In Mozambique, historically home to large buffalo herds, the combined effect of colonialism and subsequent civil wars has created a critical situation that urgently needs to be addressed. In this study, we focused on the analysis of genetic diversity of Syncerus caffer caffer populations from six areas of Mozambique. Using genome-wide SNPs obtained from ddRAD sequencing, we examined the population structure across the country, estimated gene flow between areas under conservation management, including national reserves, and assessed the inbreeding coefficients. Our results indicate that all studied populations of Syncerus caffer caffer are genetically depauperate, with a high level of inbreeding. Moreover, buffaloes in Mozambique present a significant population differentiation between southern and central areas. We found an unexpected genotype in the Gorongosa National Park, where buffaloes experienced a dramatic population size reduction, that shares a common ancestry with southern populations of Catuane and Namaacha. This could suggest the past occurrence of a connection between southern and central Mozambique and that the observed population structuring could reflect recent events of anthropogenic origin. All the populations analysed showed high levels of homozygosity, likely due to extensive inbreeding over the last few decades, which could have increased the frequency of recessive deleterious alleles. Improving the resilience of Syncerus caffer caffer in Mozambique is essential for preserving the ecosystem integrity. The most viable approach appears to be facilitating translocations and re-establishing connectivity between isolated herds. However, our results also highlight the importance of assessing intraspecific genetic diversity when considering interventions aimed at enhancing population viability such as selecting suitable source populations.

The future of endemic and threatened birds of the Amazon in the face of global climate change

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change.

Using eDNA for mammal inventories still needs naturalist expertise, a meta-analysis

DNA from the environment (eDNA) has been increasingly used as a new tool to conduct biodiversity assessment. Because of its noninvasive and less time-consuming nature, many studies of recent years solely rely on this information to establish a species inventory. eDNA metabarcoding has been shown to be an efficient method in aquatic ecosystems, especially for fish. However, detection efficiency is not clear for mammals. Using the existing literature, we conducted a meta-analysis to investigate if eDNA metabarcoding allows greater detection success compared to conventional surveys (such as field surveys, camera traps, etc.). Although only 28 articles were retrieved, showing the lack of comparative studies, still representing more than 900 taxa detected, we found that detection success was method dependent, but most importantly varies on the taxonomy of the targeted taxa. eDNA metabarcoding performed poorly for bats compared to the traditional mist nests. However, strong detection overlaps were found between conventional surveys and eDNA for large-bodied mammals such as ungulates, primates, and carnivores. Overall, we argue that using both molecular and field approaches can complement each other and can maximize the most accurate biodiversity assessment and there is much room for metabarcoding optimization to reach their full potential compared to traditional surveys.

Agriculture and biodiversity damage: A prospective evaluation of the impact of Brazilian agriculture on its ecoregions through life cycle assessment methodology

The natural ecosystems' replacement by farmland and the consequent biodiversity damage (BD) for agriculture are one of the principal concerns worldwide. The development of the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology involves enormous efforts to include BD parameters and develop a prospective LCA approach for future evaluations of production and technologies use. Thus, this work aims to determine the current impacts and estimate the future impacts in terms of damage to biodiversity caused by land occupation by agricultural commodities produced in Brazil, such as coffee, corn, oranges, and sugar cane, for the six ecoregions present in the country-Amazon, Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Cerrado, Pampas, and Pantanal-in the 20-year period from 2015 to 2035. For this and to search for hotpots, we applied the indicators proposed by Chaudhary and Books (2018), for inventories whose functional unit is production per m2 of 1 kg of crop. Although the Cerrado is one of the ecoregions in which deforestation has advanced the most, it has the area/production ratio that has evolved the most. In contrast, Pampas and Caatinga, which are not seen as agricultural frontiers, increased their impacts. The most optimistic scenarios for the future have been those in regions considered agricultural frontiers; however, these are the regions where agriculture is more technologically developed, for example, coffee production in the Atlantic Forest and in the Cerrado. The results indicate that the technological development of agriculture can contribute to mitigating the impacts of damage to biodiversity in the future, and that the implementation of legislative and inspection measures is fundamental to supporting the correct use of the soil and preventing illegal soil change. Otherwise, in the future, we will see the increasing disappearance of species. Thus, we need researchers, farmers, and policy makers to move from development to conservation.

Fear of large carnivores amplifies human-caused mortality for mesopredators

The challenge that large carnivores face in coexisting with humans calls into question their ability to carry out critical ecosystem functions such as mesopredator suppression outside protected areas. In this study, we examined the movements and fates of mesopredators and large carnivores across rural landscapes characterized by substantial human influences. Mesopredators shifted their movements toward areas with twofold-greater human influence in regions occupied by large carnivores, indicating that they perceived humans to be less of a threat. However, rather than shielding mesopredators, human-caused mortality was more than three times higher than large carnivore-caused mortality. Mesopredator suppression by apex predators may thus be amplified, rather than dampened, outside protected areas, because fear of large carnivores drives mesopredators into areas of even greater risk from human super predators.

Habitat and climatic associations of climate-sensitive species along a southern range boundary

Climate change and habitat loss are recognized as important drivers of shifts in wildlife species' geographic distributions. While often considered independently, there is considerable overlap between these drivers, and understanding how they contribute to range shifts can predict future species assemblages and inform effective management. Our objective was to evaluate the impacts of habitat, climatic, and anthropogenic effects on the distributions of climate-sensitive vertebrates along a southern range boundary in Northern Michigan, USA. We combined multiple sources of occurrence data, including harvest and citizen-science data, then used hierarchical Bayesian spatial models to determine habitat and climatic associations for four climate-sensitive vertebrate species (American marten [Martes americana], snowshoe hare [Lepus americanus], ruffed grouse [Bonasa umbellus] and moose [Alces alces]). We used total basal area of at-risk forest types to represent habitat, and temperature and winter habitat indices to represent climate. Marten associated with upland spruce-fir and lowland riparian forest types, hares with lowland conifer and aspen-birch, grouse with lowland riparian hardwoods, and moose with upland spruce-fir. Species differed in climatic drivers with hares positively associated with cooler annual temperatures, moose with cooler summer temperatures and grouse with colder winter temperatures. Contrary to expectations, temperature variables outperformed winter habitat indices. Model performance varied greatly among species, as did predicted distributions along the southern edge of the Northwoods region. As multiple species were associated with lowland riparian and upland spruce-fir habitats, these results provide potential for efficient prioritization of habitat management. Both direct and indirect effects from climate change are likely to impact the distribution of climate-sensitive species in the future and the use of multiple data types and sources in the modelling of species distributions can result in more accurate predictions resulting in improved management at policy-relevant scales.

Protected areas not likely to serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts

Species across the planet are shifting their ranges to track suitable climate conditions in response to climate change. Given that protected areas have higher quality habitat and often harbor higher levels of biodiversity compared to unprotected lands, it is often assumed that protected areas can serve as steppingstones for species undergoing climate-induced range shifts. However, there are several factors that may impede successful range shifts among protected areas, including the distance that must be traveled, unfavorable human land uses and climate conditions along potential movement routes, and lack of analogous climates. Through a species-agnostic lens, we evaluate these factors across the global terrestrial protected area network as measures of climate connectivity, which is defined as the ability of a landscape to facilitate or impede climate-induced movement. We found that over half of protected land area and two-thirds of the number of protected units across the globe are at risk of climate connectivity failure, casting doubt on whether many species can successfully undergo climate-induced range shifts among protected areas. Consequently, protected areas are unlikely to serve as steppingstones for a large number of species under a warming climate. As species disappear from protected areas without commensurate immigration of species suited to the emerging climate (due to climate connectivity failure), many protected areas may be left with a depauperate suite of species under climate change. Our findings are highly relevant given recent pledges to conserve 30% of the planet by 2030 (30 × 30), underscore the need for innovative land management strategies that allow for species range shifts, and suggest that assisted colonization may be necessary to promote species that are adapted to the emerging climate.

Protection from fishing improves body growth of an exploited species

Hunting and fishing are often size-selective, which favours slow body growth. In addition, fast growth rate has been shown to be positively correlated with behavioural traits that increase encounter rates and catchability in passive fishing gears such as baited traps. This harvest-induced selection should be effectively eliminated in no-take marine-protected areas (MPAs) unless strong density dependence results in reduced growth rates. We compared body growth of European lobster ( Homarus gammarus ) between three MPAs and three fished areas. After 14 years of protection from intensive, size-selective lobster fisheries, the densities in MPAs have increased considerably, and we demonstrate that females moult more frequently and grow more during each moult in the MPAs. A similar, but weaker pattern was evident for males. This study suggests that MPAs can shield a wild population from slow-growth selection, which can explain the rapid recovery of size structure following implementation. If slow-growth selection is a widespread phenomenon in fisheries, the effectiveness of MPAs as a management tool can be higher than currently anticipated.

Factors influencing lion movements and habitat use in the western Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania

Protected areas that restrict human activities can enhance wildlife habitat quality. Efficacy of protected areas can be improved with increased protection from illegal activities and presence of buffer protected areas that surround a core protected area. Habitat value of protected areas also can be affected by seasonal variation in anthropogenic pressures. We examined seasonal space use by African lions (Panthera leo) within a core protected area, Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, and surrounding buffer protected areas with varying protection strengths. We used lion locations in logistic regression models during wet and dry seasons to estimate probability of use in relation to protection strength, distance to protected area edge, human and livestock density, distance to roads and rivers, and land cover. Lions used strongly protected buffer areas over the core protected area and unprotected areas, and moved away from protected area boundaries toward the core protected area when buffer protected areas had less protection. Lions avoided high livestock density in the wet season and high human density in the dry season. Increased strength of protection can decrease edge effects on buffer areas and help maintain habitat quality of core protected areas for lions and other wildlife species.

How percentage-protected targets can support positive biodiversity outcomes

Global targets for the percentage area of land protected, such as 30% by 2030, have gained increasing prominence, but both their scientific basis and likely effectiveness have been questioned. As with emissions-reduction targets based on desired climate outcomes, percentage-protected targets combine values and science by estimating the area over which conservation actions are required to help achieve desired biodiversity outcomes. Protected areas are essential for achieving many biodiversity targets, in part because many species are highly sensitive to human-associated disturbance. However, because the contribution of protected areas to biodiversity outcomes is contingent on their location, management, governance, threats, and what occurs across the broader landscape matrix, global percentage-protected targets are unavoidably empirical generalizations of ecological patterns and processes across diverse geographies. Percentage-protected targets are insufficient in isolation but can complement other actions and contribute to biodiversity outcomes within a framework that balances accuracy and pragmatism in a global context characterized by imperfect biodiversity data. Ideally, percentage-protected targets serve as anchors that strengthen comprehensive national biodiversity strategies by communicating the level of ambition necessary to reverse current trends of biodiversity loss. If such targets are to fulfill this role within the complex societal process by which both values and science impel conservation actions, conservation scientists must clearly communicate the nature of the evidence base supporting percentage-protected targets and how protected areas can function within a broader landscape managed for sustainable coexistence between people and nature. A new paradigm for protected and conserved areas recognizes that national coordination, incentives, and monitoring should support rather than undermine diverse locally led conservation initiatives. However, the definition of a conserved area must retain a strong focus on biodiversity to remain consistent with the evidence base from which percentage-protected targets were originally derived.

Failed despots and the equitable distribution of fitness in a subsidized species

Territorial species are often predicted to adhere to an ideal despotic distribution and under-match local food resources, meaning that individuals in high-quality habitat achieve higher fitness than those in low-quality habitat. However, conditions such as high density, territory compression, and frequent territorial disputes in high-quality habitat are expected to cause habitat quality to decline as population density increases and, instead, promote resource matching. We studied a highly human-subsidized and under-matched population of Steller’s jays (Cyanocitta stelleri) to determine how under-matching is maintained despite high densities, compressed territories, and frequent agonistic behaviors, which should promote resource matching. We examined the distribution of fitness among individuals in high-quality, subsidized habitat, by categorizing jays into dominance classes and characterizing individual consumption of human food, body condition, fecundity, and core area size and spatial distribution. Individuals of all dominance classes consumed similar amounts of human food and had similar body condition and fecundity. However, the most dominant individuals maintained smaller core areas that had greater overlap with subsidized habitat than those of subordinates. Thus, we found that (1) jays attain high densities in subsidized areas because dominant individuals do not exclude subordinates from human food subsidies and (2) jay densities do not reach the level necessary to facilitate resource matching because dominant individuals monopolize space in subsidized areas. Our results suggest that human-modified landscapes may decouple dominance from fitness and that incomplete exclusion of subordinates may be a common mechanism underpinning high densities and creating source populations of synanthropic species in subsidized environments.

Human impacts on mammals in and around a protected area before, during, and after COVID-19 lockdowns

The dual mandate for many protected areas (PAs) to simultaneously promote recreation and conserve biodiversity may be hampered by negative effects of recreation on wildlife. However, reports of these effects are not consistent, presenting a knowledge gap that hinders evidence-based decision-making. We used camera traps to monitor human activity and terrestrial mammals in Golden Ears Provincial Park and the adjacent University of British Columbia Malcolm Knapp Research Forest near Vancouver, Canada, with the objective of discerning relative effects of various forms of recreation on cougars (Puma concolor), black bears (Ursus americanus), black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus), snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and bobcats (Lynx rufus). Additionally, public closures of the study area associated with the COVD-19 pandemic offered an unprecedented period of human-exclusion through which to explore these effects. Using Bayesian generalized mixed-effects models, we detected negative effects of hikers (mean posterior estimate = -0.58, 95% credible interval [CI] -1.09 to -0.12) on weekly bobcat habitat use and negative effects of motorized vehicles (estimate = -0.28, 95% CI -0.61 to -0.05) on weekly black bear habitat use. We also found increased cougar detection rates in the PA during the COVID-19 closure (estimate = 0.007, 95% CI 0.005 to 0.009), but decreased cougar detection rates (estimate = -0.006, 95% CI -0.009 to -0.003) and increased black-tailed deer detection rates (estimate = 0.014, 95% CI 0.002 to 0.026) upon reopening of the PA. Our results emphasize that effects of human activity on wildlife habitat use and movement may be species- and/or activity-dependent, and that camera traps can be an invaluable tool for monitoring both wildlife and human activity, collecting data even when public access is barred. Further, we encourage PA managers seeking to promote both biodiversity conservation and recreation to explicitly assess trade-offs between these two goals in their PAs.

Global protected areas seem insufficient to safeguard half of the world's mammals from human-induced extinction

Protected areas are vital for conserving global biodiversity, but we lack information on the extent to which the current global protected area network is able to prevent local extinctions. Here we investigate this by assessing the potential size of individual populations of nearly 4,000 terrestrial mammals within protected areas. We find that many existing protected areas are too small or too poorly connected to provide robust and resilient protection for almost all mammal species that are threatened with extinction and for over 1,000 species that are not currently threatened. These results highlight that global biodiversity targets must reflect ecological realities by incorporating spatial structure and estimates of population viability, rather than relying simply on the total area of land protected.

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.

Functional connectivity of the world's protected areas

Global policies call for connecting protected areas (PAs) to conserve the flow of animals and genes across changing landscapes, yet whether global PA networks currently support animal movement-and where connectivity conservation is most critical-remain largely unknown. In this study, we map the functional connectivity of the world's terrestrial PAs and quantify national PA connectivity through the lens of moving mammals. We find that mitigating the human footprint may improve connectivity more than adding new PAs, although both strategies together maximize benefits. The most globally important areas of concentrated mammal movement remain unprotected, with 71% of these overlapping with global biodiversity priority areas and 6% occurring on land with moderate to high human modification. Conservation and restoration of critical connectivity areas could safeguard PA connectivity while supporting other global conservation priorities.

Evaluation of Protected Areas in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, West Africa, Using a Remote Sensing-Based Approach

This study assesses the representation of defined ecoregions, slope profiles, and species richness of threatened mammals in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)-listed protected areas in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. It also evaluates the exposure of protected area categories to the cumulative degree of human modification and their vulnerability to future agricultural expansion. Spatial gap and statistical analyses were performed using quantitative data from publicly available online global databases. Analyses indicated key conservation priorities for both countries: (1) to increase the protection of the Guinean forest–savanna mosaic, West Sudanian savanna, and Eastern Guinean forests, especially of the Eastern Guinean forests’ ecoregion associated with the Guinean forests of the West Africa biodiversity hotspot; (2) to increase the protected area coverage of flat lands and low slopes; and (3) to enhance the size and connectivity of existing protected areas, including restoring degraded habitats. The study emphasizes that improving the ability of tropical protected areas to conserve nature and mitigate anthropogenic threats should be a global conservation priority. Improving the data quality and detail within the World Database on Protected Areas and ground-truthing them are recommended urgently to support accurate and informative assessments.

Representation of the world's biophysical conditions by the global protected area network

Protected areas (PAs) are often implemented without consideration of already existing PAs, which is likely to cause an overrepresentation of certain biophysical conditions. We assessed the representativeness of the current PA network with regard to the world's biophysical conditions to highlight which conditions are underprotected and where these conditions are located. We overlaid terrestrial and marine PAs with information on biophysical conditions (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and elevation) and then quantified the percentage of area covered by the PA network. For 1 variable at a time in the terrestrial realm, high temperature, low precipitation, and medium and very high elevation were underrepresented. For the marine realm, low and medium sea surface temperature (SST), medium and high sea surface salinity (SSS), and the deep sea were underrepresented. Overall, protection was evenly distributed for elevation across the terrestrial realm and SST across the marine realm. For 2 variables at a time, cold and very dry terrestrial environments had mostly low protection, which was also the case for low SST and low and medium SSS across most depths for marine environments. Low protection occurred mostly in the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula for the terrestrial realm and along the Tropic of Capricorn and toward the poles for the marine realm. Although biodiversity measures are of prime importance for the design of PA networks, highlighting biophysical gaps in current PAs adds a frequently overlooked perspective. These gaps may weaken the potential of PAs to conserve biodiversity. Thus, our results may provide useful insights for researchers, practitioners, and policy makers to establish a more comprehensive global PA network.

Protecting Half the Planet and Transforming Human Systems Are Complementary Goals

The unfolding crises of mass extinction and climate change call for urgent action in response. To limit biodiversity losses and avert the worst effects of climate disruption, we must greatly expand nature protection while simultaneously downsizing and transforming human systems. The conservation initiative Nature Needs Half (or Half Earth), calling for the conservation of half the Earth's land and seas, is commensurate with the enormous challenges we face. Critics have objected to this initiative as harboring hardship for people near protected areas and for failing to confront the growth economy as the main engine of global ecological destruction. In response to the first criticism, we affirm that conservation policies must be designed and implemented in collaboration with Indigenous and local communities. In response to the second criticism, we argue that protecting half the Earth needs to be complemented by downscaling and reforming economic life, humanely and gradually reducing the global population, and changing food production and consumption. By protecting nature generously, and simultaneously contracting and transforming the human enterprise, we can create the conditions for achieving justice and well-being for both people and other species. If we fail to do so, we instead accept a chaotic and impoverished world that will be dangerous for us all.

Mismatch between bird species sensitivity and the protection of intact habitats across the Americas

Protected areas are highly heterogeneous in their effectiveness at buffering human pressure, which may hamper their ability to conserve species highly sensitive to human activities. Here, we use 60 million bird observations from eBird to estimate the sensitivity to human pressure of each bird species breeding in the Americas. Concerningly, we find that ecoregions hosting large proportions of high-sensitivity species, concentrated in tropical biomes, do not have more intact protected habitat. Moreover, 266 high-sensitivity species have little or no intact protected habitat within their distributions. Finally, we show that protected area intactness is decreasing faster where high-sensitivity species concentrate. Our results highlight a major mismatch between species conservation needs and the coverage of intact protected habitats, which likely hampers the long-term effectiveness of protected areas at retaining species. We highlight ecoregions where protection and management of intact habitats, complemented by restoration, is urgently needed.

Benefits Beyond Borders: Assessing Landowner Willingness-to-Accept Incentives for Conservation Outside Protected Areas

Unplanned land-use change surrounding protected areas (PAs) can lead to degradation and fragmentation of wildlife habitats, thereby placing tremendous pressure on PAs especially in tropical countries. Incentivizing the expansion of habitats beyond PAs will not only benefit wildlife but also has the potential to create livelihood opportunities for marginalized communities living adjacent to PAs. Our study explored landowners’ willingness to participate in an incentive-based, wildlife-friendly land-use program using a discrete choice modeling approach. We surveyed 699 landowners living in 287 villages within a five-kilometer buffer around Nagarahole and Bandipur National Parks in India. We found that landowners preferred wildlife-friendly land-use over their ongoing farming practices. Landowners preferred short-term programs, requiring enrolling smaller parcels of land for wildlife-friendly land-use, and offering higher payment amounts. Landowners with larger landholdings, a longer history of living next to the PA, and growing fewer commercial crops were more likely to prefer enrolling large parcels of land. Landowners who grew more commercial crops were likely to prefer long term programs. We also estimated the average monetary incentive to be INR 64,000 (US$ 914) per acre per year. Wildlife-friendly land use, in developing economies like India with shrinking wildlife habitats and expanding infrastructural developments, could supplement rural incomes and potentially expand habitat for wildlife, thereby being a promising conservation strategy.

A pan-African spatial assessment of human conflicts with lions and elephants

African lions (Panthera leo) and African savanna (Loxodonta africana) and forest (L. cyclotis) elephants pose threats to people, crops, and livestock, and are themselves threatened with extinction. Here, we map these human-wildlife conflicts across Africa. Eighty-two percent of sites containing lions and elephants are adjacent to areas with considerable human pressure. Areas at severe risk of conflict (defined as high densities of humans, crops, and cattle) comprise 9% of the perimeter of these species' ranges and are found in 18 countries hosting, respectively, ~ 74% and 41% of African lion and elephant populations. Although a variety of alternative conflict-mitigation strategies could be deployed, we focus on assessing the potential of high-quality mitigation fences. Our spatial and economic assessments suggest that investments in the construction and maintenance of strategically located mitigation fences would be a cost-effective strategy to support local communities, protect people from dangerous wildlife, and prevent further declines in lion and elephant populations.