Violent crime redistribution in a city following a substantial increase in the number of off-sale alcohol outlets: A Bayesian analysis

Community-Level Factors As Positive and Negative Correlates of Sexual Aggression Perpetration Among Adolescent Boys

Often, perpetrators of sexual violence first aggress in their teens. Presently, very little is known about environmental factors that may influence adolescents' engagement in sexual aggression. Drawing upon data collected at 27 high schools in the Northeast United States, this study is the first to test the association between community-level factors and male adolescents' sexual aggression. A series of backward linear regressions determined that 10 of 19 community variables were associated with males' sexual aggression, which were then used to generate a ratio of positive to negative correlates of sexual aggression for each high school. In multilevel analyzes, as hypothesized, the ratio of positive to negative correlates was positively associated with schools' sexual aggression perpetration rates. We discuss the study's implications for future sexual assault research and prevention interventions.

Neighborhood Ecological Models of Alcohol Outlet Density and Male–on–Female Domestic Violence: Accounting for Adjacent Place and Neighborhood Characteristics

Alcohol availability is a consistent predictor of domestic violence, including intimate partner violence. Less is known about the effects of alcohol availability in neighboring units of analysis on domestic violence. This study examined whether alcohol outlet density in Milwaukee, Wisconsin is associated with Male-on-Female domestic violence (MFDV). Using block groups as the unit of analysis ( N = 571), spatial regression models were estimated to model the relationship between the density of total, on-premise, and off-premise alcohol outlets on MFDV, while accounting for the spatial spillover effect (i.e., alcohol availability and neighborhood characteristics in focal and surrounding block groups). At the focal level, off-premise alcohol outlets are associated with MFDV, net of concentrated disadvantage, lack of health insurance, MFDV lag and total population. Additionally, off-premise alcohol outlet density in surrounding units of analysis is a significant predictor of MFDV. However, total and on-premise densities did not demonstrate a relationship with MFDV.

Assessing the impacts of alcohol outlets on crime as a natural experiment: agglomeration, churning and spatial effects

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Retail alcohol outlets appear to open in neighborhoods with low land and structure rents near sources of demand; they may 'agglomerate', open near to one another or 'churn', replace one another, over time. We used the turnover in numbers of outlets over time to measure agglomeration and churning and the impacts of openings and closings of outlets on neighborhood crime.

DESIGN

Interrupted quasi-experiments using spatial panel population data from 3768 synthetic block areas over 6 years.

SETTING

City of Oakland, CA, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

City population.

MEASUREMENTS

Census-based socio-demographic estimates and counts of openings and closings of bars/pubs, restaurants and off-premises outlets related to assault, burglary and robbery crime incidents across synthetic Census blocks. Bayesian space-time models were used to assess agglomeration and churning and measure impacts of openings/closings on crime.

FINDINGS

Churning was substantial; openings followed closings for all outlets [bars/pubs, relative risk (RR) = 50.9, 95% credible interval (CI) = 3.0-449.9; restaurants, RR = 3.1, CI = 1.5-6.1; off-premises, RR = 23.5, CI = 2.0-129.8]. Bars/pub and restaurant openings agglomerated with other outlets (e.g., RR = 1.02, CI = 1.00-1.03 and RR = 1.01, CI = 1.00-1.01), but off-premises outlets did not. Covarying out effects related to outlet densities, bar/pub openings were related to a 3.5% increase in assaults (RR = 1.04, CI = 1.01-1.06) and 6.9% increase in robberies (RR = 1.07, CI = 1.03-1.11). Restaurant openings were related to a 5.3% increase in burglaries (RR = 1.05, CI = 1.04-1.06). Openings and closings of off-premises outlets were unrelated to all three crime types.

CONCLUSIONS

Retail alcohol outlets appear to follow a pattern of opening near to one another and replacing each other over time. Bar, pub and restaurant openings appear to be related to increases in neighborhood crime.

Population-Based Correlates of Spatially Aggregated Drug-Related Arrests On and Off the U.S.-Mexico Border in California

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to examine drug-related arrest rates in California from 2005 to 2017 with a focus on the measurement of presumptive excess arrests across areas proximate to the U.S.-Mexico border.

METHOD

Arrest data come from the Monthly Arrest and Citation Register (MACR) by the California Department of Justice. U.S. Census demographic population information, and alcohol outlet data from the California Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control, were aggregated at the level of 499 Law Enforcement Reporting Areas (LERA) that contributed to the MACR report. Multivariable analyses were conducted using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson spacetime models.

RESULTS

Multivariable results showed that felony and misdemeanor arrests increased with distance from the U.S.-Mexico border (felony relative rate [RR] = 1.007, 95% CI [1.003, 1.010]; misdemeanor RR = 1.013, 95% CI [1.010, 1.016]) and were greater in areas with greater outlet concentrations (felony RR = 1.008, 95% CI [1.008, 1.008]; misdemeanor RR = 1.007, 95% CI [1.007, 1.007]) and a greater percentage of bars and pubs (felony RR = 1.031, 95% CI [1.030, 1.032]; misdemeanor RR = 1.052, 95% CI [1.051, 1.053]). Areas with greater Black populations had greater felony and fewer misdemeanor arrests (felony RR = 1.078, 95% CI [1.076, 1.079]; misdemeanor RR = 0.865, 95% CI [0.864, 0.867]). Areas with greater Hispanic populations had greater misdemeanor arrests (RR = 1.008, 95% CI [1.006, 1.009]). The percentage of off-premise outlets was inversely associated with misdemeanor arrest rates (RR = 0.995, 95% CI [0.994, 0.995]).

CONCLUSIONS

Although arrest rates were substantively related to the racial composition of areas across California, there was no evidence of excess drug-related arrests along border areas.

Proximity to the U.S./Mexico border, alcohol outlet density and population-based sociodemographic correlates of spatially aggregated violent crimes in California

This paper examines trends and population-level correlates of violent crime rates from 2005 to 2017 in California, including proximity to the U.S./Mexico border and alcohol outlet density. Crime data come from the Crimes and Clearances report compiled by the California Department of Justice. These and U.S. Census data were aggregated at the level of 499 Law Enforcement Reporting Areas (LERA) that contributed to the report. Reported crime rates were related to area characteristics using hierarchical Bayesian Poisson space-time models. Violent crime rates declined 16% from 2005 to 2017. Crime rates were positively related to distance to the border, total alcohol outlet density, percent outlets that are bars and pubs, percent population Black, percent population Hispanic, percent population 30-49 years of age, percent population U.S. born, percent 150% below federal poverty level, percent high school graduate, and percent houses vacant. Violent crimes were negatively related to percent total outlets that are off-premise, percent population male, percent with higher than 2017 adjusted median income, percent owner occupied houses, and lower population density. In conclusion, several population level characteristics including ethnic composition, community socioeconomic stability, and alcohol availability are associated with violent crime rates. Contrary to public perceptions, violent crime rates increase as distance to the Mexico border increases.

A Spatial Analysis of Alcohol Outlet Density and Abandoned Properties on Violent Crime in Paterson New Jersey

Alcohol outlet density (AOD) and abandoned or vacant properties in under-served urban communities has received increased attention and has been linked to community violence. While previous research has examined the AOD and violent crime association, less research has investigated the relationship between abandoned properties and violent crime. Those studies that are present examining the AOD-abandoned properties-violent crime link have been plagued by flaws that include statistical weaknesses and aggregated datasets that investigated larger units such as states or countries. The present study, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) mapping, spatial analysis techniques, and a regression-based approach examines the association between AOD and abandoned properties on violent crime, controlling for demographic characteristics, in Paterson, New Jersey. Results provide some evidence on the association between AOD and abandoned properties on violent crime, drawing conclusions for policy and practice.

The good, the bad, and the environment: developing an area-based measure of access to health-promoting and health-constraining environments in New Zealand

Background

Accounting for the co-occurrence of multiple environmental influences is a more accurate reflection of population exposure than considering isolated influences, aiding in understanding the complex interactions between environments, behaviour and health. This study examines how environmental ‘goods’ such as green spaces and environmental ‘bads’ such as alcohol outlets co-occur to develop a nationwide area-level healthy location index (HLI) for New Zealand.

Methods

Nationwide data were collected, processed, and geocoded on a comprehensive range of environmental exposures. Health-constraining ‘bads’ were represented by: (i) fast-food outlets, (ii) takeaway outlets, (iii) dairy outlets and convenience stores, (iv) alcohol outlets, (v) and gaming venues. Health-promoting ‘goods’ were represented by: (i) green spaces, (ii) blue spaces, (iii) physical activity facilities, (iv) fruit and vegetable outlets, and (v) supermarkets. The HLI was developed based on ranked access to environmental domains. The HLI was then used to investigate socio-spatial patterning by area-level deprivation and rural/urban classification.

Results

Results showed environmental ‘goods’ and ‘bads’ co-occurred together and were patterned by area-level deprivation. The novel HLI shows that the most deprived areas of New Zealand often have the most environmental ‘bads’ and less access to environmental ‘goods’.

Conclusions

The index, that is now publicly available, is able to capture both inter-regional and local variations in accessibility to health-promoting and health-constraining environments and their combination. Results in this study further reinforce the need to embrace the multidimensional nature of neighbourhood and place not only when designing health-promoting places, but also when studying the effect of existing built environments on population health.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12942-021-00269-x.

Multiresolution Analyses of Neighborhood Correlates of Crime: Smaller Is Not Better

Population analyses of the correlates of neighborhood crime implicitly assume that a single spatial unit can be used to assess neighborhood effects. However, no single spatial unit may be suitable for analyses of the many social determinants of crime. Instead, effects may appear at multiple spatial resolutions, with some determinants acting broadly, others locally, and still others as some function of both global and local conditions. We provide a multiresolution spatial analysis that simultaneously examines US Census block, block group, and tract effects of alcohol outlets and drug markets on violent crimes in Oakland, California, incorporating spatial lag effects at the 2 smaller spatial resolutions. Using call data from the Oakland Police Department from 2010-2015, we examine associations of assaults, burglaries, and robberies with multiple resolutions of alcohol outlet types and compare the performance of single (block-level) models with that of multiresolution models. Multiresolution models performed better than the block models, reflected in improved deviance and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria and well-supported multiresolution associations. By considering multiple spatial scales and spatial lags in a Bayesian framework, researchers can explore multiresolution processes, providing more detailed tests of expectations from theoretical models and leading the way to more effective intervention efforts.

Mapping disparities in homicide trends across Brazil: 2000-2014

Background

Homicides are a major problem in Brazil. Drugs and arms trafficking, and land conflicts are three of the many factors driving homicide rates in Brazil. Understanding long-term spatiotemporal trends and social structural factors associated with homicides in Brazil would be useful for designing policies aimed at reducing homicide rates.

Methods

We obtained data from 2000 to 2014 from the Brazil Ministry of Health (MOH) Mortality Information System and sociodemographic data from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). First, we quantified the rate of change in homicides at the municipality and state levels. Second, we used principal component regression and k-medoids clustering to examine differences in temporal trends across municipalities. Lastly, we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time models to describe spatio-temporal patterns and to assess the contribution of structural factors.

Results

There were significant variations in homicide rates across states and municipalities. We noted the largest decrease in homicide rates in the western and southeastern states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo, which coincided with an increase in homicide rates in the northeastern states of Ceará, Alagoas, Paraiba, Rio Grande Norte, Sergipe and Bahia during the fifteen-year period. The decrease in homicides in municipalities with populations of at least 250,000 coincided with an increase in municipalities with 25,000 people or less. Structural factors that predicted municipality-level homicide rates included crude domestic product, urbanization, border with neighboring countries and proportion of population aged fifteen to twenty-nine.

Conclusions

Our findings support both a dissemination hypothesis and an interiorization hypothesis. These findings should be considered when designing interventions to curb homicide rates.

Close proximity to alcohol outlets is associated with increased crime and hazardous drinking: Pooled nationally representative data from New Zealand

This nationwide study investigated the relationship between proximity to alcohol outlets (off-licence, on-licence, and other-licence) and two adverse outcomes; hazardous drinking and crime (common assault, non-aggravated sexual assault, aggravated sexual assault, and tobacco and liquor offences). After adjustment for important individual- and area-level factors, close proximity to alcohol outlets was associated with increased risk of hazardous drinking, with strong associations for on-licence outlets. Proximity alcohol outlets was also strongly associated with all crime outcomes, often with a dose-response relationship. Nationally representative New Zealand data showed that close proximity to alcohol outlets was associated with increased crime and hazardous drinking.

Looking Back and Moving Forward: The Evolution and Potential Opportunities for the Future of Alcohol Outlet Density Measurement

The literature consistently finds that areas with greater density of alcohol outlets (places that sell alcohol) tend to have higher levels of public health harms. However, conflicting findings arise when researchers drill down to identify the type(s) of alcohol outlets with the strongest associations with harms and the mechanisms that explain these associations. These disagreements could be a result of the outdated methods commonly used to quantify the alcohol environment: counts of the number of outlets in an area. This manuscript reviews the events and ideas that shaped the literature on the physical alcohol environment. It then defines the three main methods used to measure alcohol outlet density, conducts an exploratory factor analysis to explore the constructs underlying each method, and presents a novel conceptual framework that summarizes the three methods, their respective underlying constructs, and the setting(s) in which each may be most appropriate. The framework proposes that counts of alcohol outlets measure availability, proximity to the nearest outlet measures accessibility, and spatial access measures measure access, which comprises both availability and accessibility. We argue that researchers should consider using proximity and spatial access measures when possible and outline how doing so may present opportunities to advance theory and the design and implementation of alcohol outlet zoning regulations. Finally, this manuscript draws on research from other areas of the built environment to suggest opportunities to use novel methods to overcome common hurdles (e.g., separating subtypes of outlets, ecologic designs) and a new challenge on the horizon: home delivery.

[Trend and distribution of the homicide mortality rate in accordance with the size of the population of Brazilian municipalities - 2000 and 2015]

The scope of this study is to analyze the trends and distribution of homicide mortality rates (HMR) according to the population size of Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2015. It is an ecological study of deaths recorded in the Mortality Information System, with HMR standardized by the direct method and 95% confidence interval. HMR in Brazil grew 6% (to 29.1/100,000) in the period, with an increase in small municipalities (83%; 12.7 to 23.2/100,000) and mediumsized cities (52%; 19.7% to 30.1/100,000); which is true for both sexes, different ages, regions and firearm-related events. HMR decreased in major cities (19%; 40.6% to 32.9/100,000) and the Southeast region (55%; 45.6% to 20.6/100,000). The relative risk (RR) of small and medium-sized cities in relation to large cities is already greater than or close to 1 among women (RR 0.99; 1.03), people aged 60 years or older (RR 1.43; 1.36) and homicides by other means (RR 1.16; 1.18). The cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro contributed the most to the reduction of HMR, especially in large cities (-37.6 and -22.3 homicides/100,000 inhabitants). Small and medium-sized municipalities have consistent trends of an increase in HMR even considering population subgroups.

Alcohol Outlet Clusters and Population Disparities

Alcohol outlet clusters are an important social determinant of health in cities, but little is known about the populations exposed to them. If outlets cluster in neighborhoods comprised of specific racial/ethnic or economic groups, then they may function as a root cause of urban health disparities. This study used 2016 liquor license data (n = 1204) from Baltimore City, Maryland, and demographic data from the American Community Survey. We defined alcohol outlet clusters by combining SaTScan moving window methods and distances between outlets. We used multiple logistic regression to compare census block groups (CBGs) (n = 537) inside and outside of four types of outlet clusters: total, on-premise, off-premise, and LBD-7 (combined on-/off-premise). The most robust predictor of alcohol outlet cluster membership was a history of redlining, i.e., racially discriminatory lending policies. CBGs that were redlined had 7.32 times the odds of being in an off-premise cluster, 8.07 times the odds of being in an on-premise cluster, and 8.60 times the odds of being in a LBD-7 cluster. In addition, level of economic investment (marked by vacant properties) appears to be a key characteristic that separates CBGs in on- and off-premise outlet clusters. CBGs with racial/ethnic or socioeconomic advantage had higher odds of being in on-premise clusters and CBGs marked by disinvestment had higher odds of being in off-premise clusters. Off-premise clusters deserve closer examination from a policy perspective, to mitigate their potential role in creating and perpetuating social and health disparities. In addition to addressing redlining and disinvestment, the current negative effects of alcohol outlet clusters that have grown up in redlined and disinvested areas must be addressed if inequities in these neighborhoods are to be reversed.

The Violence Prevention Potential of Reducing Alcohol Outlet Access in Baltimore, Maryland

OBJECTIVE

There are few cost-effectiveness analyses that model alcohol outlet zoning policies. This study determines the potential decreases in homicides, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and victim and criminal justice costs associated with four policy options that would reduce the alcohol outlet access in Baltimore.

METHOD

This cost-effectiveness analysis used associations between on-premise (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.41), off-premise (IRR = 1.76), and combined on- and off-premise outlet density (IRR = 1.07) and homicide in Baltimore. We determined the potential change in the level of homicide that could occur with changes in the density of alcohol outlets, assuming that 50% of the association was causal.

RESULTS

Reducing alcohol outlet density in Baltimore City by one quintile was associated with decreases of 51 homicides per year, $63.7 million, and 764 DALYs. Removing liquor stores in residential zones was associated with 22 fewer homicides, which would cost $27.5 million and lead to 391 DALYs. Removing bars/taverns operating as liquor stores was associated with a decrease of one homicide, $1.2 million, and 17 DALYs. Removing both the liquor stores in residential zones and the bars/taverns operating as liquor stores was associated with 23 fewer homicides, which translated to $28.7 million and 409 DALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

For preventing homicides, the strategy of removing liquor stores in residential zones was preferred because it was associated with substantial reductions in homicides without closing unacceptably high numbers of outlets. It is possible that policies that close the bars/taverns operating as liquor stores would be associated with decreases in other types of violent crime.

Design and outcome measures for the AB InBev Global Smart Drinking Goals evaluation

We describe the rationale for and design of an independent evaluation of the Global Smart Drinking Goals (GSDG) program. The primary purpose of this program, supported by the AB InBev Foundation, is to reduce harms associated with alcohol use by 10%. Our evaluation focuses on the effects of prevention strategies sponsored by the Foundation that are being implemented in six city pilots located in as many countries. These strategies are designed to reduce heavy episodic drinking, underage drinking, drink driving, and alcohol-related violence. Each city pilot has been matched with a comparison city in which the GSDG program will not be implemented. In this quasi-experimental community trial, we will assess each city pilot's progress toward reaching its harm reduction goals, relative to its comparison city, by means of annual adult and youth surveys. We will then supplement these analyses with the use of pertinent local archival data, where available. We discuss several challenges related to this evaluation and its quasi-experimental design. These include operating in a fluid and unpredictable environment in regard to the implementation, adaptation, and (on occasion) abandonment of the prevention strategies selected by each city pilot. We also discuss issues concerning our decision to accept funding from the alcohol industry and the measures we have taken to ensure the independence of our evaluation.

Methods for Evaluating the Association Between Alcohol Outlet Density and Violent Crime

BACKGROUND

The objective of this analysis was to compare measurement methods-counts, proximity, mean distance, and spatial access-of calculating alcohol outlet density and violent crime using data from Baltimore, Maryland.

METHODS

Violent crime data (n = 11,815) were obtained from the Baltimore City Police Department and included homicides, aggravated assaults, rapes, and robberies in 2016. We calculated alcohol outlet density and violent crime at the census block (CB) level (n = 13,016). We then weighted these CB-level measures to the census tract level (n = 197) and conducted a series of regressions. Negative binomial regression was used for count outcomes and linear regression for proximity and spatial access outcomes. Choropleth maps, partial R² , Akaike's Information Criterion, and root mean squared error guided determination of which models yielded lower error and better fit.

RESULTS

The inference depended on the measurement methods used. Eight models that used a count of alcohol outlets and/or violent crimes failed to detect an association between outlets and crime, and 3 other count-based models detected an association in the opposite direction. Proximity, mean distance, and spatial access methods consistently detected an association between outlets and crime and produced comparable model fits.

CONCLUSIONS

Proximity, mean distance, and spatial access methods yielded the best model fits and had the lowest levels of error in this urban setting. Spatial access methods may offer conceptual strengths over proximity and mean distance. Conflicting findings in the field may be in part due to error in the way that researchers measure alcohol outlet density.

Density of Medical Marijuana Dispensaries and Current Marijuana Use among Young Adult Marijuana Users in Los Angeles

Background: While tobacco and alcohol studies have focused on density of outlets as a determinant of consumption, research has begun examining the effects of medical marijuana (MM) dispensaries on marijuana use. Objectives: Examine the relationship between density of MM dispensaries and frequency of marijuana use among young adult medical marijuana patients (MMP) and nonpatient users (NPU). Methods: Young adult marijuana users (n = 329) aged 18- to 26-year old were sampled in Los Angeles in 2014-2015 and separated into MMP (n = 198) and NPU (n = 131). In 2014, 425 operational MM dispensaries were identified within the City of Los Angeles. Sequential multilevel Poisson random effect models examined density of MM dispensaries per square mile and 90 d marijuana use among MMP and NUP at the ZIP code level while controlling for demographic, behavioral, and community characteristics. Results: Density of MM dispensaries was not related to 90 d use of marijuana (days of use or hits per day) among either MMP or NPU. MMP reported significantly greater days of marijuana use in the past 90 d compared to NPU but no differences were found for hits per day. African-Americans reported significantly greater hits per day compared to whites. Hispanics reported significantly fewer hits per day compared to non-Hispanics. Conclusion: Concentration of MM dispensaries surrounding young adult marijuana users in Los Angeles was unrelated to days of marijuana use irrespective of having a MM recommendation or not. Rather, individual factors related to consumer choices and behaviors were more important in determining recent marijuana use among MMP and NPU.