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Ci M, Liu Q, Liu Y, Jin Q, Martinez-Valderrama J, Zhao J. Multi-model assessment of potential natural vegetation to support ecological restoration. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 367:121934. [PMID: 39083935 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2024] [Revised: 06/02/2024] [Accepted: 07/12/2024] [Indexed: 08/02/2024]
Abstract
Ecological restoration is imperative for controlling desertification. Potential natural vegetation (PNV), the theoretical vegetation succession state, can guides near-natural restoration. Although a rising transition from traditional statistical methods to advanced machine learning and deep learning is observed in PNV simulation, a comprehensive comparison of their performance is still unexplored. Therefore, we overview the performance of PNV mapping in terms of 12 commonly used methods with varying spatial scales and sample sizes. Our findings indicate that the methodology should be carefully selected due to the variation in performance of different model types, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.65 to 0.95 for models with sample sizes up to 80% of the total sample size. Specifically, semi-supervised learning performs best with small sample sizes (i.e., 10 to 200), while Random Forest, XGBoost, and artificial neural networks perform better with large sample sizes (i.e., over 500). Further, the performance of all models tends to improve significantly as the sample size increases and the grain size of the crystals becomes smaller. Take the downstream Tarim River Basin, a hyper-arid region undergoing ecological restoration, as a case study. We showed that its potential restored areas were overestimated by 2-3 fold as the spatial scale became coarser, revealing the caution needed while planning restoration projects at coarse resolution. These findings enhance the application of PNV in the design of restoration programs to prevent desertification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengtao Ci
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China
| | - Qi Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation & Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystem in Xinjiang, Cele, 848300, China.
| | - Yunfei Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation & Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystem in Xinjiang, Cele, 848300, China
| | - Qian Jin
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; Cele National Station of Observation & Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystem in Xinjiang, Cele, 848300, China
| | - Jaime Martinez-Valderrama
- Estación Experimental de Zonas Áridas, CSIC, La Cañada de San Urbano, 04120, Almería, Spain; Instituto Multidisciplinar para el Estudio del Medio, Universidad de Alicante, San Vicente del Raspeig, 03690, Alicante, Spain
| | - Jianping Zhao
- College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China
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Selvaraj JJ, Portilla-Cabrera CV. Impact of climate change on Colombian Pacific coast mangrove bivalves distribution. iScience 2024; 27:110473. [PMID: 39139406 PMCID: PMC11321327 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2024] [Revised: 03/02/2024] [Accepted: 07/05/2024] [Indexed: 08/15/2024] Open
Abstract
The mangrove bivalves, Anadara tuberculosa and Anadara similis, are pivotal for the Colombian Pacific coast mangrove ecosystems and economies. In this study, the current and future potential distribution of these bivalves is modeled considering climate change. The future models (2030 and 2050) were projected considering the new climate scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5) proposed by the IPCC in its sixth report. Our findings reveal areas in the Colombian Pacific coast, notably Nariño, Cauca, southern Valle del Cauca, and Chocó, with high environmental suitability for these bivalves. However, the 2050 projections, especially under the pessimistic SSP5 scenario, indicate potential adverse impacts from climate change. By 2030 and 2050, the species might lean more toward a southwesterly distribution in the Colombian Pacific coast. Climate-induced spatiotemporal mismatches could occur between the bivalves and the mangroves in some areas. These insights are crucial for effective conservation and management strategies for these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- John Josephraj Selvaraj
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira Campus, Department of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Administration, Research Group on Hydrobiological Resources, Carrera 32 No. 12-00 Chapinero, Vía Candelaria, Palmira, Valle del Cauca 763533, Colombia
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Tumaco Campus, Institute of Pacific Studies, Kilómetro 30-31, Cajapí Vía Nacional Tumaco-Pasto, Tumaco, Nariño 528514, Colombia
| | - Cristiam Victoriano Portilla-Cabrera
- Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Palmira Campus, Department of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Administration, Research Group on Hydrobiological Resources, Carrera 32 No. 12-00 Chapinero, Vía Candelaria, Palmira, Valle del Cauca 763533, Colombia
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3
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Strömbom D, Sands A, Graham JM, Crocker A, Cloud C, Tulevech G, Ward K. Modeling human activity-related spread of the spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) in the US. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0307754. [PMID: 39141604 PMCID: PMC11324106 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 08/16/2024] Open
Abstract
The spotted lanternfly (Lycorma delicatula) has recently spread from its native range to several other countries and forecasts predict that it may become a global invasive pest. In particular, since its confirmed presence in the United States in 2014 it has established itself as a major invasive pest in the Mid-Atlantic region where it is damaging both naturally occurring and commercially important farmed plants. Quarantine zones have been introduced to contain the infestation, but the spread to new areas continues. At present the pathways and drivers of spread are not well-understood. In particular, several human activity related factors have been proposed to contribute to the spread; however, which features of the current spread can be attributed to these factors remains unclear. Here we collect county level data on infestation status and four specific human activity related factors and use statistical methods to determine whether there is evidence for an association between the factors and infestation. Then we construct a network model based on the factors found to be associated with infestation and use it to simulate local spread. We find that the model reproduces key features of the spread 2014 to 2021. In particular, the growth of the main infestation region and the opening of spread corridors in the westward and southwestern directions is consistent with data and the model accurately forecasts the correct infestation status at the county level in 2021 with 81% accuracy. We then use the model to forecast the spread up to 2025 in a larger region. Given that this model is based on a few human activity related factors that can be targeted, it may prove useful to incorporate it into more elaborate predictive forecasting models and in informing management efforts focused on interstate highway transport and garden centers in the US and potentially for current and future invasions elsewhere globally.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Strömbom
- Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, United states of America
| | - Autumn Sands
- Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, United states of America
| | - Jason M. Graham
- Department of Mathematics, University of Scranton, Scranton, PA, United states of America
| | - Amanda Crocker
- Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, United states of America
| | - Cameron Cloud
- Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, United states of America
| | - Grace Tulevech
- Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, United states of America
| | - Kelly Ward
- Department of Biology, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, United states of America
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4
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Wysocki A, Wierzcholska S, Proćków J, Konowalik K. Host tree availability shapes potential distribution of a target epiphytic moss species more than direct climate effects. Sci Rep 2024; 14:18388. [PMID: 39117663 PMCID: PMC11310343 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-69041-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2024] [Accepted: 07/30/2024] [Indexed: 08/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change significantly impacts the distribution of woody plants, indirectly influencing the dynamics of entire ecosystems. Understanding species' varied responses to the environment and their reliance on biotic interactions is crucial for predicting the global changes' impact on woodland biodiversity. Our study focusses on Dicranum viride, a moss of conservation priority, and its dependence on specific phorophytes (host trees). Using species distribution modelling (SDM) techniques, we initially modelled its distribution using climate-only variables. As a novel approach, we also modelled the distribution of the main phorophyte species and incorporated them into D. viride SDM alongside climate data. Finally, we analysed the overlap of climatic and geographic niches between the epiphyte and the phorophytes. Inclusion of biotic interactions significantly improved model performance, with phorophyte availability emerging as the primary predictor. This underscores the significance of epiphyte-phorophyte interactions, supported by substantial niche overlap. Predictions indicate a potential decline in the suitability of most of the current areas for D. viride, with noticeable shifts towards the northern regions of Europe. Our study underscores the importance of incorporating biotic interactions into SDMs, especially for dependent organisms. Understanding such connections is essential to implement successful conservation strategies and adapt forest management practices to environmental changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrian Wysocki
- Department of Plant Biology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Kożuchowska 7a, 51-631, Wrocław, Poland.
| | - Sylwia Wierzcholska
- Department of Plant Biology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Kożuchowska 7a, 51-631, Wrocław, Poland
| | - Jarosław Proćków
- Department of Plant Biology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Kożuchowska 7a, 51-631, Wrocław, Poland
| | - Kamil Konowalik
- Department of Botany and Plant Ecology, Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Pl. Grunwaldzki 24a, 50-363, Wrocław, Poland
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Singleton AL, Glidden CK, Chamberlin AJ, Tuan R, Palasio RGS, Pinter A, Caldeira RL, Mendonça CLF, Carvalho OS, Monteiro MV, Athni TS, Sokolow SH, Mordecai EA, De Leo GA. Species distribution modeling for disease ecology: A multi-scale case study for schistosomiasis host snails in Brazil. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 4:e0002224. [PMID: 39093879 PMCID: PMC11296653 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0002224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/17/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024]
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly popular tools for profiling disease risk in ecology, particularly for infectious diseases of public health importance that include an obligate non-human host in their transmission cycle. SDMs can create high-resolution maps of host distribution across geographical scales, reflecting baseline risk of disease. However, as SDM computational methods have rapidly expanded, there are many outstanding methodological questions. Here we address key questions about SDM application, using schistosomiasis risk in Brazil as a case study. Schistosomiasis is transmitted to humans through contact with the free-living infectious stage of Schistosoma spp. parasites released from freshwater snails, the parasite's obligate intermediate hosts. In this study, we compared snail SDM performance across machine learning (ML) approaches (MaxEnt, Random Forest, and Boosted Regression Trees), geographic extents (national, regional, and state), types of presence data (expert-collected and publicly-available), and snail species (Biomphalaria glabrata, B. straminea, and B. tenagophila). We used high-resolution (1km) climate, hydrology, land-use/land-cover (LULC), and soil property data to describe the snails' ecological niche and evaluated models on multiple criteria. Although all ML approaches produced comparable spatially cross-validated performance metrics, their suitability maps showed major qualitative differences that required validation based on local expert knowledge. Additionally, our findings revealed varying importance of LULC and bioclimatic variables for different snail species at different spatial scales. Finally, we found that models using publicly-available data predicted snail distribution with comparable AUC values to models using expert-collected data. This work serves as an instructional guide to SDM methods that can be applied to a range of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases. In addition, it advances our understanding of the relevant environment and bioclimatic determinants of schistosomiasis risk in Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alyson L. Singleton
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Caroline K. Glidden
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
- Institute for Human-centered Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Andrew J. Chamberlin
- Department of Oceans, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Omar S. Carvalho
- Fiocruz Minas/Belo Horizonte-Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Miguel V. Monteiro
- Geoinformation & Earth Observation Division, National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tejas S. Athni
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
- Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Susanne H. Sokolow
- Department of Oceans, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
- Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Erin A. Mordecai
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
| | - Giulio A. De Leo
- Department of Oceans, Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific Grove, California, United States of America
- Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America
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6
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Souza NF, Leal JS, Tourinho L, Farjalla VF, Rocha DSB, Vale MM. Bioindicator aquatic insects at risk from climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 948:174824. [PMID: 39034001 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174824] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2024] [Revised: 06/29/2024] [Accepted: 07/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/23/2024]
Abstract
Climate change can affect biological assemblages by shifting their species' geographic range and changing species richness. Aquatic insects represent more than half of the freshwater animal species but have been neglected mainly in climate change assessments, particularly in tropical ecosystems. Among the aquatic insect taxa, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) are well-known bioindicators of environmental changes and encompass an essential metric for rivers and streams' biomonitoring. Here, we use ecological niche models to project the impact of climate change on the distribution range and richness of EPT in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot. We found EPT to be at high risk from future climate change, with Plecoptera as the order of greatest concern. We projected range contraction of ca. 90 % of the analyzed EPT genera, resulting in a reduction in the richness of EPT genera under future climatic conditions. We projected >50 % contraction in the distribution of 50 % of Plecoptera, ≈14 % of Trichoptera, and ≈7 % of Ephemeroptera genera. The remaining climatically suitable regions in the Atlantic Forest are concentrated in the high-altitude areas, which may act as climate refuges for EPT biodiversity in the future. The projected changes in EPT's distribution range and richness may impact biomonitoring programs conducted in tropical ecosystems. Restricting EPT's geographic distribution may undermine its potential as a bioindicator and influence the composition of EPT assemblages at reference sites, which may lead to shifting baseline conditions. We reinforce the importance of considering future climatic conditions when planning long-term biomonitoring and priority areas for conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Natália F Souza
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
| | - Juliana S Leal
- Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolution, The State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Luara Tourinho
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Vinicius F Farjalla
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Department of Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; International Institute for Sustainability, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Diogo S B Rocha
- International Institute for Sustainability, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Mariana M Vale
- Graduate Program in Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Department of Ecology, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Huang Y, Li T, Chen W, Zhang Y, Xu Y, Guo T, Wang S, Liu J, Qin Y. Analysis of the Distribution Pattern of Phenacoccus manihoti in China under Climate Change Based on the Biomod2 Model. BIOLOGY 2024; 13:538. [PMID: 39056731 PMCID: PMC11274023 DOI: 10.3390/biology13070538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2024] [Revised: 07/10/2024] [Accepted: 07/12/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024]
Abstract
The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among the most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China is currently free of the cassava mealybug, its proximity to affected countries and extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding of the pest's distribution pattern and dynamic ecological niche changes. Using the Biomod2 model, we selected two historical climate scenarios and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the distribution patterns, potential habitats, distribution centers, and dynamic ecological niches of cassava mealybugs in China. Key environmental variables influencing the distribution were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, and bio19. The potential habitat of cassava mealybugs is mainly located in several provinces in southern China. In the future, the suitable habitat is projected to expand slightly under the influence of climate change, maintaining the overall trend, but the distribution center of suitable areas will shift northward. Dynamic ecological niche prediction results indicate the potential for further expansion; however, the ecological niches may be unequal and dissimilar in the invaded areas. The predictions could serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies to control the introduction of cassava mealybugs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yumeng Huang
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (Y.H.); (T.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.X.); (T.G.)
| | - Tong Li
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (Y.H.); (T.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.X.); (T.G.)
| | - Weijia Chen
- Technical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 200135, China; (W.C.); (S.W.)
| | - Yuan Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (Y.H.); (T.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.X.); (T.G.)
| | - Yanling Xu
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (Y.H.); (T.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.X.); (T.G.)
| | - Tengda Guo
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (Y.H.); (T.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.X.); (T.G.)
| | - Shuping Wang
- Technical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 200135, China; (W.C.); (S.W.)
| | - Jingyuan Liu
- Technical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 200135, China; (W.C.); (S.W.)
| | - Yujia Qin
- Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China; (Y.H.); (T.L.); (Y.Z.); (Y.X.); (T.G.)
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Chanda MM, Purse BV, Sedda L, Benz D, Prasad M, Reddy YN, Yarabolu KR, Byregowda SM, Carpenter S, Prasad G, Rogers DJ. Bluetongue Risk Map for Vaccination and Surveillance Strategies in India. Pathogens 2024; 13:590. [PMID: 39057817 PMCID: PMC11280473 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens13070590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2024] [Revised: 07/07/2024] [Accepted: 07/13/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024] Open
Abstract
Bluetongue virus (BTV, Sedoreoviridae: Orbivirus) causes an economically important disease, namely, bluetongue (BT), in domestic and wild ruminants worldwide. BTV is endemic to South India and has occurred with varying severity every year since the virus was first reported in 1963. BT can cause high morbidity and mortality to sheep flocks in this region, resulting in serious economic losses to subsistence farmers, with impacts on food security. The epidemiology of BTV in South India is complex, characterized by an unusually wide diversity of susceptible ruminant hosts, multiple vector species biting midges (Culicoides spp., Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), which have been implicated in the transmission of BTV and numerous co-circulating virus serotypes and strains. BT presence data (1997-2011) for South India were obtained from multiple sources to develop a presence/absence model for the disease. A non-linear discriminant analysis (NLDA) was carried out using temporal Fourier transformed variables that were remotely sensed as potential predictors of BT distribution. Predictive performance was then characterized using a range of different accuracy statistics (sensitivity, specificity, and Kappa). The top ten variables selected to explain BT distribution were primarily thermal metrics (land surface temperature, i.e., LST, and middle infrared, i.e., MIR) and a measure of plant photosynthetic activity (the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, i.e., NDVI). A model that used pseudo-absence points, with three presence and absence clusters each, outperformed the model that used only the recorded absence points and showed high correspondence with past BTV outbreaks. The resulting risk maps may be suitable for informing disease managers concerned with vaccination, prevention, and control of BT in high-risk areas and for planning future state-wide vector and virus surveillance activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed Mudassar Chanda
- ICAR-National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Informatics (NIVEDI), Ramagondanahalli, Yelahanka, Bengaluru 560064, India
| | - Bethan V. Purse
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK;
| | - Luigi Sedda
- Lancaster Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University, Furness Building, Lancaster LA1 4YG, UK;
| | - David Benz
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11A Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK; (D.B.); (D.J.R.)
| | - Minakshi Prasad
- National Research Centre on Equines, Sirsa Road, Hisar 125001, India;
| | - Yella Narasimha Reddy
- Department of Animal Biotechnology, P.V. Narsimha Rao Telangana University, Hyderabad 500030, India;
| | - Krishnamohan Reddy Yarabolu
- Vaccine Research Centre-Viral Vaccines, Centre for Animal Health Studies Tamil Nadu Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Chennai 600051, India;
| | - S. M. Byregowda
- Institute of Animal Health and Veterinary Biological, Bengaluru 560024, India;
| | - Simon Carpenter
- School of the Biological Sciences, 17 Mill Lane, Cambridge CB2 1RX, UK;
| | - Gaya Prasad
- International Institute of Veterinary Education & Research, Rohtak 124001, India;
| | - David John Rogers
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, 11A Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3SZ, UK; (D.B.); (D.J.R.)
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Ran W, Chen J, Zhao Y, Zhang N, Luo G, Zhao Z, Song Y. Global climate change-driven impacts on the Asian distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers, with implications for biological and environmental conservation. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e70003. [PMID: 39026963 PMCID: PMC11257772 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.70003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2024] [Revised: 06/04/2024] [Accepted: 06/28/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Ran
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Jiajia Chen
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Yuanqi Zhao
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Ni Zhang
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Guimei Luo
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
| | - Zhibing Zhao
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
- School of Food Science and EngineeringGuiyang UniversityGuiyangChina
| | - Yuehua Song
- School of Karst ScienceGuizhou Normal UniversityGuiyangChina
- State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification ControlGuiyangChina
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10
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Ding X, Du B, Lu L, Lin K, Sa R, Gao Y, Guo J, Wang N, Huang W. Combining the Optimized Maximum Entropy Model to Detect Key Factors in the Occurrence of Oedaleus decorus asiaticus in the Typical Grasslands of Central and Eastern Inner Mongolia. INSECTS 2024; 15:488. [PMID: 39057221 PMCID: PMC11276687 DOI: 10.3390/insects15070488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2024] [Revised: 04/24/2024] [Accepted: 05/06/2024] [Indexed: 07/28/2024]
Abstract
Grasshoppers pose a significant threat to both natural grassland vegetation and crops. Therefore, comprehending the relationship between environmental factors and grasshopper occurrence is of paramount importance. This study integrated machine learning models (Maxent) using the kuenm package to screen MaxEnt models for grasshopper species selection, while simultaneously fitting remote sensing data of major grasshopper breeding areas in Inner Mongolia, China. It investigated the spatial distribution and key factors influencing the occurrence of typical grasshopper species in grassland ecosystems. The modelling results indicate that a typical steppe has a larger suitable area. The soil type, above biomass, altitude, and temperature, predominantly determine the grasshopper occurrence in typical steppes. This study explicitly delineates the disparate impacts of key environmental factors (meteorology, vegetation, soil, and topography) on grasshopper occurrence in typical steppes. Furthermore, it provides a methodology to guide early warning and precautions for grasshopper pest prevention. The findings of this study will be instrumental in formulating future management measures to guarantee grass ecological environment security and the sustainable development of grassland.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaolong Ding
- Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China; (X.D.); (B.D.); (K.L.)
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Hohhot 010010, China
| | - Bobo Du
- Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China; (X.D.); (B.D.); (K.L.)
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Hohhot 010010, China
| | - Longhui Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; (L.L.); (J.G.)
| | - Kejian Lin
- Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China; (X.D.); (B.D.); (K.L.)
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Hohhot 010010, China
| | - Rina Sa
- XilinGol Grassland National Nature Reserve Administration, XilinGol 026000, China;
| | - Yang Gao
- Inner Mongolia Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China;
| | - Jing Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; (L.L.); (J.G.)
| | - Ning Wang
- Institute of Grassland Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hohhot 010010, China; (X.D.); (B.D.); (K.L.)
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Hohhot 010010, China
| | - Wenjiang Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China; (L.L.); (J.G.)
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11
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Buckley SJ, Brauer CJ, Unmack PJ, Hammer MP, Adams M, Beatty SJ, Morgan DL, Beheregaray LB. Long-term climatic stability drives accumulation and maintenance of divergent freshwater fish lineages in a temperate biodiversity hotspot. Heredity (Edinb) 2024:10.1038/s41437-024-00700-6. [PMID: 38918613 DOI: 10.1038/s41437-024-00700-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2024] [Revised: 06/17/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is forecast to drive regional climate disruption and instability across the globe. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated within biodiversity hotspots, both due to the greater potential for species loss but also to the possibility that endemic lineages might not have experienced significant climatic variation in the past, limiting their evolutionary potential to respond to rapid climate change. We assessed the role of climatic stability on the accumulation and persistence of lineages in an obligate freshwater fish group endemic to the southwest Western Australia (SWWA) biodiversity hotspot. Using 19,426 genomic (ddRAD-seq) markers and species distribution modelling, we explored the phylogeographic history of western (Nannoperca vittata) and little (Nannoperca pygmaea) pygmy perches, assessing population divergence and phylogenetic relationships, delimiting species and estimating changes in species distributions from the Pliocene to 2100. We identified two deep phylogroups comprising three divergent clusters, which showed no historical connectivity since the Pliocene. We conservatively suggest these represent three isolated species with additional intraspecific structure within one widespread species. All lineages showed long-term patterns of isolation and persistence owing to climatic stability but with significant range contractions likely under future climate change. Our results highlighted the role of climatic stability in allowing the persistence of isolated lineages in the SWWA. This biodiversity hotspot is under compounding threat from ongoing climate change and habitat modification, which may further threaten previously undetected cryptic diversity across the region.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sean James Buckley
- Molecular Ecology Laboratory, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, 6000, Australia
- Molecular Ecology and Evolution Group, School of Science, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA, 6027, Australia
| | - Chris J Brauer
- Molecular Ecology Laboratory, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia
| | - Peter J Unmack
- Centre for Applied Water Science, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, 3800, Australia
| | - Michael P Hammer
- Natural Sciences, Museum and Art Gallery of the Northern Territory, Darwin, NT, 0801, Australia
| | - Mark Adams
- Evolutionary Biology Unit, South Australian Museum, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia
- School of Biological Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5000, Australia
| | - Stephen J Beatty
- Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, 6150, Australia
| | - David L Morgan
- Centre for Sustainable Aquatic Ecosystems, Harry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, 6150, Australia
| | - Luciano B Beheregaray
- Molecular Ecology Laboratory, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.
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12
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Liu W, Nie X, Chen F, Guo N, Zhang Y, Xiao S, Huang Y, Xie Y. Field survey data for conservation: Evaluating suitable habitat of Chinese pangolin at the county-level in eastern China (2000-2040). Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11512. [PMID: 38835522 PMCID: PMC11147814 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11512] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/29/2024] [Revised: 04/25/2024] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/06/2024] Open
Abstract
The scarcity of up-to-date data on the distribution and dynamics of the Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) presented a significant challenge in developing effective conservation strategies and implementing protective measures within China. Currently, most of China's national-level nature reserves and administrative departments operate at the county level, thereby limiting the applicability of larger-scale analyses and studies for these administrative entities. This study employed 11 widely used modeling techniques created within the Biomod2 framework to predict suitable habitats for the pangolin at the county scale, while examining the correlation between environmental variables and pangolin distribution. The results revealed that highly suitable habitats in Mingxi County of China encompassed only 49 km2. Within the county-managed nature reserve, the proportion of highly suitable habitats reached as high as 52%. However, nearly half of these areas, both moderately and highly suitable habitats, remained inadequately addressed and conserved. We found nine administrative villages that necessitated prioritized conservation efforts. The study anticipated an overall expansion in suitable habitats over the ensuing two decades, with significant growth projected in the eastern regions of Xiayang and Hufang Town. This research offered a clear and applicable research paradigm for the specific administrative level at which China operates, particularly pertinent to county-level jurisdictions with established nature reserves.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Liu
- College of Life Sciences Henan Normal University Xinxiang Henan China
| | - Xiaoxiao Nie
- College of Life Sciences Henan Normal University Xinxiang Henan China
| | - Fengjiao Chen
- Luoyuan National Forest Farm in Fujian Province Fuzhou Fujian China
| | - Ning Guo
- Wildlife Protection Center of Fujian Province Fuzhou Fujian China
| | - Yong Zhang
- Fujian Institute of Forest Inventory and Planning Fuzhou Fujian China
| | | | - Yanbin Huang
- Fujian Junzifeng National Nature Reserve Management Bureau Sanming Fujian China
| | - Yanping Xie
- College of Life Sciences Huaibei Normal University Huaibei Anhui China
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13
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Feng C, Guo F, Gao G. Climate as a Predictive Factor for Invasion: Unravelling the Range Dynamics of Carpomya vesuviana Costa. INSECTS 2024; 15:374. [PMID: 38921089 PMCID: PMC11203509 DOI: 10.3390/insects15060374] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2024] [Revised: 05/14/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/27/2024]
Abstract
Invasive alien species (IAS) significantly affect global native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health. Carpomya vesuviana Costa, 1854 (Diptera: Tephritidae), a significant global IAS, affects various date species, leading to substantial economic losses and adverse effects on human health and the environment. This study employed biomod2 ensemble models, multivariate environmental similarity surface and most dissimilar variable analyses, and ecological niche dynamics based on environmental and species data to predict the potential distribution of C. vesuviana and explore the environmental variables affecting observed patterns and impacts. Compared to native ranges, ecological niche shifts at invaded sites increased the invasion risk of C. vesuviana globally. The potential geographical distribution was primarily in Asia, Africa, and Australia, with a gradual increase in suitability with time and radiation levels. The potential geographic distribution centre of C. vesuviana is likely to shift poleward between the present and the 2090s. We also show that precipitation is a key factor influencing the likely future distribution of this species. In conclusion, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographic range and ecological niche of C. vesuviana, requiring effective transnational management strategies to mitigate its impacts on the natural environment and public health during the Anthropocene. This study aims to assess the potential threat of C. vesuviana to date palms globally through quantitative analytical methods. By modelling and analysing its potential geographic distribution, ecological niche, and environmental similarities, this paper predicts the pest's dispersal potential and possible transfer trends in geographic centres of mass in order to provide prevention and control strategies for the global date palm industry.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Guizhen Gao
- College of Forestry and Landscape Architecture, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China; (C.F.); (F.G.)
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14
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Zhang HT, Yang TT, Wang WT. A novel hybrid model for species distribution prediction using neural networks and Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm. Sci Rep 2024; 14:11505. [PMID: 38769379 PMCID: PMC11106298 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-62285-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2024] [Accepted: 05/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/22/2024] Open
Abstract
Neural networks are frequently employed to model species distribution through backpropagation methods, known as backpropagation neural networks (BPNN). However, the complex structure of BPNN introduces parameter settings challenges, such as the determination of connection weights, which can affect the accuracy of model simulation. In this paper, we integrated the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) algorithm, renowned for its excellent global search capacity and rapid convergence, to enhance the performance of BPNN. Then we obtained a novel hybrid algorithm, the Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm optimized backpropagation neural networks algorithm (GNNA), designed for predicting species' potential distribution. We also compared the GNNA with four prevalent species distribution models (SDMs), namely the generalized boosting model (GBM), generalized linear model (GLM), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and random forest (RF). These models were evaluated using three evaluation metrics: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Cohen's kappa, and the true skill statistic, across 23 varied species. Additionally, we examined the predictive accuracy concerning spatial distribution. The results showed that the predictive performance of GNNA was significantly improved compared to BPNN, was significantly better than that of GLM and GBM, and was even comparable to that of MaxEnt and RF in predicting species distributions with small sample sizes. Furthermore, the GNNA demonstrates exceptional powers in forecasting the potential non-native distribution of invasive plant species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao-Tian Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, 730030, People's Republic of China
| | - Ting-Ting Yang
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, 730030, People's Republic of China
| | - Wen-Ting Wang
- School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Northwest Minzu University, Lanzhou, 730030, People's Republic of China.
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15
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Blais BR, Koprowski JL. Modeling a hot, dry future: Substantial range reductions in suitable environment projected under climate change for a semiarid riparian predator guild. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0302981. [PMID: 38709740 PMCID: PMC11073737 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302981] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Accepted: 04/15/2024] [Indexed: 05/08/2024] Open
Abstract
An understanding of species-environmental relationships is invaluable for effective conservation and management under anthropogenic climate change, especially for biodiversity hotspots such as riparian habitats. Species distribution models (SDMs) assess present species-environmental relationships which can project potential suitable environments through space and time. An understanding of environmental factors associated with distributions can guide conservation management strategies under a changing climate. We generated 260 ensemble SDMs for five species of Thamnophis gartersnakes (n = 347)-an important riparian predator guild-in a semiarid and biogeographically diverse region under impact from climate change (Arizona, United States). We modeled present species-environmental relationships and projected changes to suitable environment under 12 future climate scenarios per species, including the most and least optimistic greenhouse gas emission pathways, through 2100. We found that Thamnophis likely advanced northward since the turn of the 20th century and overwinter temperature and seasonal precipitation best explained present distributions. Future ranges of suitable environment for Thamnophis are projected to decrease by ca. -37.1% on average. We found that species already threatened with extinction or those with warm trailing-edge populations likely face the greatest loss of suitable environment, including near or complete loss of suitable environment. Future climate scenarios suggest an upward advance of suitable environment around montane areas for some low to mid-elevation species, which may create pressures to ascend. The most suitable environmental areas projected here can be used to identify potential safe zones to prioritize conservation refuges, including applicable critical habitat designations. By bounding the climate pathway extremes to, we reduce SDM uncertainties and provide valuable information to help conservation practitioners mitigate climate-induced threats to species. Implementing informed conservation actions is paramount for sustaining biodiversity in important aridland riparian systems as the climate warms and dries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brian R. Blais
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
| | - John L. Koprowski
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America
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16
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Jinga P, Manyangadze T. Variable intraspecific response to climate change in a medicinally important African tree species, Vachellia sieberiana (DC.) (paperbark thorn). Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e11314. [PMID: 38694755 PMCID: PMC11056962 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.11314] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/12/2023] [Revised: 01/24/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 05/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change is predicted to disproportionately impact sub-Saharan Africa, with potential devastating consequences on plant populations. Climate change may, however, impact intraspecific taxa differently. The aim of the study was to determine the current distribution and impact of climate change on three varieties of Vachellia sieberiana, that is, var. sieberiana, var. villosa and var. woodii. Ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) were built in "biomod2" using 66, 45, and 137 occurrence records for var. sieberiana, var. villosa, and var. woodii, respectively. The ensemble SDMs were projected to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 under three general circulation models (GCMs) and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The three GCMs were the Canadian Earth System Model version 5, the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Climate Model version 6A Low Resolution, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6. The suitable habitat of var. sieberiana predominantly occurs in the Sudanian and Zambezian phytochoria while that of var. villosa largely occurs in the Sudanian phytochorion. The suitable habitat of var. woodii mainly occurs in the Zambezian phyotochorion. There is coexistence of var. villosa and var. sieberiana in the Sudanian phytochorion while var. sieberiana and var. woodii coexist in the Zambezian phytochorion. Under SSP2-4.5 in 2041-2060 and averaged across the three GCMs, the suitable habitat expanded by 33.8% and 119.7% for var. sieberiana and var. villosa, respectively. In contrast, the suitable habitat of var. woodii contracted by -8.4%. Similar trends were observed in 2041-2060 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (38.6%), var. villosa (139.0%), and var. woodii (-10.4%)], in 2081-2100 under SSP2-4.5 [var. sieberiana (4.6%), var. villosa (153.4%), and var. woodii (-14.4%)], and in 2081-2100 under SSP5-8.5 [var. sieberiana (49.3%), var. villosa (233.4%), and var. woodii (-30.7%)]. Different responses to climate change call for unique management and conservation decisions for the varieties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Percy Jinga
- Biological Sciences DepartmentBindura University of Science EducationBinduraZimbabwe
| | - Tawanda Manyangadze
- Geosciences DepartmentBindura University of Science EducationBinduraZimbabwe
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17
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Zeiss R, Briones MJI, Mathieu J, Lomba A, Dahlke J, Heptner LF, Salako G, Eisenhauer N, Guerra CA. Effects of climate on the distribution and conservation of commonly observed European earthworms. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2024; 38:e14187. [PMID: 37768192 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 08/21/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023]
Abstract
Belowground biodiversity distribution does not necessarily reflect aboveground biodiversity patterns, but maps of soil biodiversity remain scarce because of limited data availability. Earthworms belong to the most thoroughly studied soil organisms and-in their role as ecosystem engineers-have a significant impact on ecosystem functioning. We used species distribution modeling (SDMs) and available data sets to map the spatial distribution of commonly observed (i.e., frequently recorded) earthworm species (Annelida, Oligochaeta) across Europe under current and future climate conditions. First, we predicted potential species distributions with commonly used models (i.e., MaxEnt and Biomod) and estimated total species richness (i.e., number of species in a 5 × 5 km grid cell). Second, we determined how much the different types of protected areas covered predicted earthworm richness and species ranges (i.e., distributions) by estimating the respective proportion of the range area. Earthworm species richness was high in central western Europe and low in northeastern Europe. This pattern was mainly associated with annual mean temperature and precipitation seasonality, but the importance of predictor variables to species occurrences varied among species. The geographical ranges of the majority of the earthworm species were predicted to shift to eastern Europe and partly decrease under future climate scenarios. Predicted current and future ranges were only poorly covered by protected areas, such as national parks. More than 80% of future earthworm ranges were on average not protected at all (mean [SD] = 82.6% [0.04]). Overall, our results emphasize the urgency of considering especially vulnerable earthworm species, as well as other soil organisms, in the design of nature conservation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Romy Zeiss
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Maria J I Briones
- Departamento de Ecologia y Biologia Animal, Universidade de Vigo, Vigo, Spain
| | - Jérome Mathieu
- Sorbonne Université, CNRS, IRD, INRAE, Université Paris Est Créteil, Université de Paris Cité, Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences of Paris (iEES-Paris), Paris, France
| | - Angela Lomba
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, Universidade do Porto, Vairão, Portugal
- Departamento de Biologia, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
| | - Jessica Dahlke
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät 1, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Laura-Fiona Heptner
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Gabriel Salako
- Soil Zoology Division, Senckenberg Museum of Natural History, Görlitz, Germany
- Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, Kwara State University, Malete, Nigeria
| | - Nico Eisenhauer
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Carlos A Guerra
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Biology, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
- Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (MLU), Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät 1, Halle (Saale), Germany
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18
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Zhang H, Wei Y, Yue J, Wang Z, Zou H, Ji X, Zhang S, Liu Z. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Priority Protection for Cupressus gigantea on the Tibetan Plateau. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:896. [PMID: 38592903 PMCID: PMC10974514 DOI: 10.3390/plants13060896] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2024] [Revised: 03/01/2024] [Accepted: 03/19/2024] [Indexed: 04/11/2024]
Abstract
Cupressus gigantea (C. gigantea) is an endemic endangered species on the Tibetan Plateau; its potential suitable areas and priority protection in the context of global climate change remain poorly predicted. This study utilized Biomod2 and Marxan to assess the potential suitable areas and priority protection for C. gigantea. Our study revealed that the suitable areas of C. gigantea were concentrated in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, with the center in Lang County. Temperature was identified as a crucial environmental factor influencing the distribution of C. gigantea. Over the coming decades, the suitable range of C. gigantea expanded modestly, while its overall distribution remained relatively stable. Moreover, the center of the highly suitable areas tended to migrate towards Milin County in the northeast. Presently, significant areas for improvement are needed to establish protected areas for C. gigantea. The most feasible priority protected areas were located between the Lang and Milin counties in Tibet, which have more concentrated and undisturbed habitats. These results provide scientific guidance for the conservation and planning of C. gigantea, contributing to the stability and sustainability of ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huayong Zhang
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (H.Z.)
- Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China
| | - Yanan Wei
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (H.Z.)
| | - Junjie Yue
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (H.Z.)
| | - Zhongyu Wang
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (H.Z.)
| | - Hengchao Zou
- Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China (H.Z.)
| | - Xiande Ji
- Energy Conversion Group, Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Groningen, Nijenborgh 6, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Shijia Zhang
- Research Group WILD Department Biology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
| | - Zhao Liu
- Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China
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19
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Carroll KA, Pidgeon AM, Elsen PR, Farwell LS, Gudex-Cross D, Zuckerberg B, Radeloff VC. Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2934. [PMID: 38071693 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2023] [Revised: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 10/29/2023] [Indexed: 12/22/2023]
Abstract
Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathleen A Carroll
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Anna M Pidgeon
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Paul R Elsen
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, New York, USA
| | | | - David Gudex-Cross
- RedCastle Resources, Inc. Forest Service Contractor, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
| | - Benjamin Zuckerberg
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
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20
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Chung OS, Lee JK. Assessing the Distribution and Richness of Mammalian Species Using a Stacking Species Distribution Model in a Temperate Forest. Animals (Basel) 2024; 14:759. [PMID: 38473147 DOI: 10.3390/ani14050759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2024] [Revised: 02/03/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/14/2024] Open
Abstract
This study was conducted as an effort to examine the association between mammalian species richness and environmental, anthropogenic, and bioclimate factors in the Province of Chungnam, Korea, using a stacked species distribution model (SSDM) approach. An SSDM model was constructed using an extensive dataset collected from 1357 mammal sampling points and their corresponding forest, geographical, anthropogenic, and bioclimatic information. Distance to forest edge, elevation, slope, population density, and distance to water channels were identified as important variables for determining species richness, whereas the impact of bioclimate variables was less important. The endemism map showed a strong correlation with species richness, suggesting the important role of endemic species. Overestimation was observed in areas with lower species richness. However, the findings of the study still demonstrated that valuable insights can be obtained through the use of the SSDM, which may be helpful to land managers, aiding in the effective management of wildlife habitats, particularly in regions with an abundance of species richness and endemism.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ok-Sik Chung
- Space and Environment Laboratory, Chungnam Institute, 73-26 Institute Road, Gongju 32589, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong Koo Lee
- Division of Life Sciences, College of Life Sciences and Bioengineering, Incheon National University, 119 Academy-ro, Yeonsu-gu, Incheon 22012, Republic of Korea
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Neves JMM, Belo VS, Catita CMS, de Oliveira BFA, Horta MAP. Modeling of Human Rabies Cases in Brazil in Different Future Global Warming Scenarios. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2024; 21:212. [PMID: 38397701 PMCID: PMC10888213 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph21020212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2023] [Revised: 01/22/2024] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 02/25/2024]
Abstract
Bat species have been observed to have the potential to expand their distribution in response to climate change, thereby influencing shifts in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of human rabies cases. In this study, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project climatic suitability under different future global warming scenarios for human rabies cases in Brazil, and assessed the impact on the probability of emergence of new cases. We obtained notification records of human rabies cases in all Brazilian cities from January 2001 to August 2023, as reported by the State and Municipal Health Departments. The current and future climate data were sourced from a digital repository on the WorldClim website. The future bioclimatic variables provided were downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 (a global model ensemble) and extracted from the regionalized climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL for three future socioeconomic scenarios over four periods (2021-2100). Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected for modeling human rabies. Temperature seasonality was the bioclimatic variable with the highest relative contribution to both current and future consensus models. Future scenario modeling for human rabies indicated a trend of changes in the areas of occurrence, maintaining the current pace of global warming, population growth, socioeconomic instability, and the loss of natural areas. In Brazil, there are areas with a higher likelihood of climatic factors contributing to the emergence of cases. When assessing future scenarios, a change in the local climatic suitability is observed that may lead to a reduction or increase in cases, depending on the region.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Vinicius Silva Belo
- Laboratory of Parasitology, Federal University of São João del-Rei, Divinopolis 36307-352, Brazil;
| | - Cristina Maria Souza Catita
- Department of Geographic Engineering, Geophysics and Energy, University of Lisbon, Lisbon 1649-004, Portugal;
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Ran WW, Luo GM, Zhao YQ, Li C, Dietrich CH, Song YH. Climate change may drive the distribution of tribe Zyginelline pests in China and the Indo-China Peninsula to shift towards higher latitude river-mountain systems. PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2024; 80:613-626. [PMID: 37740940 DOI: 10.1002/ps.7788] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 09/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tribe Zyginelline leafhoppers can transmit plant viruses and are important pests that affect agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry, causing serious economic losses. The potential distribution patterns of Zyginellini will change under climate change. Therefore, the best-performing random forest and maximum entropy models among 12 commonly used ecological niche models, alongside an ensemble model, were selected to predict the changes in habitat suitability distribution of Zyginellini under current and future climate scenarios [represented by two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP126 and SSP585, for three periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s)] in China and the Indo-China Peninsula for the first time. RESULTS The results revealed that the distribution of Zyginellini was mainly dominated by minimum temperature of coldest month. Under current and future climate scenarios, Zyginellini was mostly distributed southeast of the 400 mm equivalent precipitation line in China, and Vietnam. Under the future SSP126 scenario, the alert areas will mainly be concentrated in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Anhui, and Hebei in China, alongside Myanmar and Thailand in the Indo-China Peninsula. Meanwhile, in the SSP585 scenario, the alert areas in China will increase, whereas there will be little change in the Indo-China Peninsula. Interestingly, from the current to the future, the cores of Zyginelline distribution occurred around rivers and mountains, and shifted from Guizhou along the Yuanjiang River system to higher latitudes in Hunan. CONCLUSION Zyginellini prefers higher latitude river-mountain systems under climate change. Our results will contribute to effective pest control strategies and biogeographical research for Zyginellini alongside other Cicadellidae insects. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei-Wei Ran
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
- Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Rare Animal and Economic Insect of the Mountainous Region, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
| | - Gui-Mei Luo
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
- Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Rare Animal and Economic Insect of the Mountainous Region, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
| | - Yuan-Qi Zhao
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
| | - Can Li
- Guizhou Provincial Key Laboratory for Rare Animal and Economic Insect of the Mountainous Region, Guiyang University, Guiyang, China
| | - Christopher H Dietrich
- Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, USA
| | - Yue-Hua Song
- School of Karst Science, Guizhou Normal University/State Engineering Technology Institute for Karst Desertification Control, Guiyang, China
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23
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Jin Z, Zhao H, Xian X, Li M, Qi Y, Guo J, Yang N, Lü Z, Liu W. Early warning and management of invasive crop pests under global warming: estimating the global geographical distribution patterns and ecological niche overlap of three Diabrotica beetles. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2024; 31:13575-13590. [PMID: 38253826 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-024-32076-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/13/2023] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
Invasive alien pests (IAPs) pose a major threat to global agriculture and food production. When multiple IAPs coexist in the same habitat and use the same resources, the economic loss to local agricultural production increases. Many species of the Diabrotica genus, such as Diabrotica barberi, Diabrotica undecimpunctata, and Diabrotica virgifera, originating from the USA and Mexico, seriously damaged maize production in North America and Europe. However, the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) and degree of ecological niche overlap among the three Diabrotica beetles remain unclear; thus, the potential coexistence zone is unknown. Based on environmental and species occurrence data, we used an ensemble model (EM) to predict the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles. The n-dimensional hypervolumes concept was used to explore the degree of niche overlap among the three species. The EM showed better reliability than the individual models. According to the EM results, the PGDs and overlapping PGD of the three Diabrotica beetles were mainly distributed in North America, Europe, and Asia. Under the current scenario, D. virgifera has the largest PGD ranges (1615 × 104 km2). In the future, the PGD of this species will expand further and reach a maximum under the SSP5-8.5 scenario in the 2050s (2499 × 104 km2). Diabrotica virgifera showed the highest potential for invasion under the current and future global warming scenarios. Among the three studied species, the degree of ecological niche overlap was the highest for D. undecimpunctata and D. virgifera, with the highest similarity in the PGD patterns and maximum coexistence range. Under global warming, the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles are expected to expand to high latitudes. Identifying the PGDs of the three Diabrotica beetles provides an important reference for quarantine authorities in countries at risk of invasion worldwide to develop specific preventive measures against pests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenan Jin
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Haoxiang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Xiaoqing Xian
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Ming Li
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Yuhan Qi
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Jianyang Guo
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Nianwan Yang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
- Institute of Western Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji, 831100, China
| | - Zhichuang Lü
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China
| | - Wanxue Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, 100193, China.
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Dhami B, Chhetri NB, Neupane B, Adhikari B, Bashyal B, Maraseni T, Thapamagar T, Dhakal Y, Tripathi A, Koju NP. Predicting the current habitat refugia of Himalayan Musk deer ( Moschus chrysogaster) across Nepal. Ecol Evol 2024; 14:e10949. [PMID: 38371859 PMCID: PMC10870248 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10949] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2023] [Revised: 10/20/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 02/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Himalayan Musk deer, Moschus chrysogaster is widely distributed but one of the least studied species in Nepal. In this study, we compiled a total of 429 current presence points of direct observation of the species, pellets droppings, and hoofmarks based on field-based surveys during 2018-2021 and periodic data held by the Department of National Park and Wildlife Conservation. We developed the species distribution model using an ensemble modeling approach. We used a combination of bioclimatic, anthropogenic, topographic, and vegetation-related variables to predict the current suitable habitat for Himalayan Musk deer in Nepal. A total of 16 predictor variables were used for habitat suitability modeling after the multicollinearity test. The study shows that the 6973.76 km2 (5%) area of Nepal is highly suitable and 8387.11 km2 (6%) is moderately suitable for HMD. The distribution of HMD shows mainly by precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, temperature ranges, distance to water bodies, anthropogenic variables, and land use and land cover change (LULC). The probability of occurrence is less in habitats with low forest cover. The response curves indicate that the probability of occurrence of HMD decreases with an increase in precipitation seasonality and remains constant with an increase in precipitation of the warmest quarter. Thus, the fortune of the species distribution will be limited by anthropogenic factors like poaching, hunting, habitat fragmentation and habitat degradation, and long-term forces of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bijaya Dhami
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of AlbertaEdmontonAlbertaCanada
- IUCN/SSC Deer Specialist GroupGlandSwitzerland
| | | | - Bijaya Neupane
- Institute of Forestry, Pokhara CampusTribhuvan UniversityPokharaNepal
- Department of Forest Sciences, Faculty of Agriculture and ForestryUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Binaya Adhikari
- Department of BiologyUniversity of KentuckyLexingtonKentuckyUSA
| | - Bijay Bashyal
- IUCN/SSC Deer Specialist GroupGlandSwitzerland
- Central Department of Environmental ScienceTribhuvan UniversityKathmanduNepal
| | - Tek Maraseni
- University of Southern QueenslandToowoombaQueenslandAustralia
| | | | | | | | - Narayan Prasad Koju
- Center for Post Graduate Studies, Nepal Engineering CollegePokhara UniversityBhaktapurNepal
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Zimmer SN, Holsinger KW, Dawson CA. A field-validated ensemble species distribution model of Eriogonum pelinophilum, an endangered subshrub in Colorado, USA. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10816. [PMID: 38107426 PMCID: PMC10721943 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10816] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Revised: 10/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Understanding the suitable habitat of endangered species is crucial for agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management to plan management and conservation. However, few species distribution models are directly validated, potentially limiting their application in management. In preparation for a Species Status Assessment of clay-loving wild buckwheat (Eriogonum pelinophilum), an endangered subshrub found in southwest Colorado, we ran a series of species distribution models to estimate the species' potential occupied habitat and validated these models in the field. A 1-meter resolution digital elevation model derived from LiDAR and a high-resolution geology mapping helped identify biologically relevant characteristics of the species' habitat. We employed a weighted ensemble model based on two Random Forest and one Boosted Regression Tree model, and discrimination performance of the ensemble model was high (AUC-PR = 0.793). We then conducted a systematic field survey of model habitat suitability predictions, during which we discovered 55 new subpopulations of the species and demonstrated that new species observations were strongly associated with model predictions (p < .0001, Cliff's delta = 0.575). We further refined our original models by incorporating the additional species occurrences collected in the field survey, a new explanatory variable, and a more diverse set of models. These iterative changes marginally improved performance of the ensemble model (AUC-PR = 0.825). Direct validation of species distribution models is extremely rare, and our field survey provides strong validation of our model results. This helps increase confidence to utilize predictions in planning. The final model predictions greatly improve the Bureau of Land Management's understanding of the species' habitat and increase our ability to consider potential habitat in planning land use activities such as road development and travel management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Scott N. Zimmer
- Uncompahgre Field OfficeBureau of Land ManagementMontroseColoradoUSA
- Fire Sciences LaboratoryRocky Mountain Research Station, U.S. Forest ServiceMissoulaMontanaUSA
| | | | - Carol A. Dawson
- Colorado State OfficeBureau of Land ManagementLakewoodColoradoUSA
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Bania JK, Deka JR, Hazarika A, Das AK, Nath AJ, Sileshi GW. Modelling habitat suitability for Moringa oleifera and Moringa stenopetala under current and future climate change scenarios. Sci Rep 2023; 13:20221. [PMID: 37980365 PMCID: PMC10657390 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-47535-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2023] [Accepted: 11/14/2023] [Indexed: 11/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Moringa oleifera Lam and Moringa stenopetala (Baker f.) Cufod are being widely promoted as multipurpose trees across the tropics for their nutritional, medicinal and soil health benefits. Different parts of these species are edible, have therapeutic values and their seeds are used for water purification. Although the two species are similar in many ways, they have contrasting distributions. However, their current promotion is not guided by adequate knowledge of the suitability of the target areas. Information is also scanty on the suitability of habitats for these species under the current and future climate change scenarios. Therefore, the objective of this study was to predict the habitat suitability of M. oleifera and M. stenopetala under current and future climate change scenarios using an ensemble of models assuming four shared socio-economic pathways, namely, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The results suggest that areas that are highly suitable for M. oleifera will increase by 0.1% and 3.2% under SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5 by 2050, respectively. By 2070, the area suitable for M. oleifera would likely decrease by 5.4 and 10.6% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The habitat that is highly suitable for M. stenopetala was predicted to increase by 85-98% under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by 2050 and by 2070, while suitable areas could increase by up to 143.6% under SSP5-8.5. The most influential bioclimatic variables for both species were mean diurnal temperature range, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, and isothermality. Additionally, soil pH, elevation and water holding capacity were influential variables in the distribution of M. oleifera, while soil pH, soil salinity and slope were influential in M. stenopetala distribution. This study has provided baseline information on the current distribution and possible future habitat suitability, which will be helpful to guide formulation of good policies and practices for promoting Moringa species outside their current range.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jintu Kumar Bania
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India
| | | | - Animekh Hazarika
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India
| | - Ashesh Kumar Das
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India
| | - Arun Jyoti Nath
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India
| | - Gudeta W Sileshi
- Department of Plant Biology and Biodiversity Management, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
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Ko C, Ko DW, Cho W. Predicting Disparity between ASF-Managed Areas and Wild Boar Habitats: A Case of South Korea. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:3482. [PMID: 38003100 PMCID: PMC10668782 DOI: 10.3390/ani13223482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2023] [Revised: 11/06/2023] [Accepted: 11/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/26/2023] Open
Abstract
African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting both domestic and wild boars. Since its first outbreak in South Korea in 2019, substantial efforts have been made to prevent ASF transmission by reducing the wild boar population and eliminating infected carcasses; however, the persistence of ASF transmission has posed challenges to these efforts. To improve ASF management strategies, the limitations of current management strategies must be identified by considering disparities between wild boar habitats and ASF-managed areas with environmental and anthropogenic characteristics of wild boars and their management strategies. Here, ensemble species distribution models were used to estimate wild boar habitats and potential ASF-managed areas, with elevation, distance to urban areas, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index as important variables. Binary maps of wild boar habitats and potential ASF-managed areas were generated using the maxSSS as the threshold criterion. Disparity areas of ASF management were identified by overlying regions evaluated as wild boar habitats with those not classified as ASF-managed areas. Dense forests near urban regions like Chungcheongbuk-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do, and Gyeongsangnam-do were evaluated as disparity areas having high risk of ASF transmission. These findings hold significant potential for refining ASF management strategies and establishing proactive control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chanwoo Ko
- Department of Forest Resources, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Republic of Korea;
| | - Dongwook W. Ko
- Department of Forest, Environment, and Systems, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Republic of Korea;
| | - Wonhee Cho
- Industry Academic Cooperation Foundation, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02707, Republic of Korea
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Zhang H, Guo W, Wang W. The dimensionality reductions of environmental variables have a significant effect on the performance of species distribution models. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10747. [PMID: 38020673 PMCID: PMC10659948 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2023] [Revised: 10/29/2023] [Accepted: 11/06/2023] [Indexed: 12/01/2023] Open
Abstract
How to effectively obtain species-related low-dimensional data from massive environmental variables has become an urgent problem for species distribution models (SDMs). In this study, we will explore whether dimensionality reduction on environmental variables can improve the predictive performance of SDMs. We first used two linear (i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and independent components analysis) and two nonlinear (i.e., kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) and uniform manifold approximation and projection) dimensionality reduction techniques (DRTs) to reduce the dimensionality of high-dimensional environmental data. Then, we established five SDMs based on the environmental variables of dimensionality reduction for 23 real plant species and nine virtual species, and compared the predictive performance of those with the SDMs based on the selected environmental variables through Pearson's correlation coefficient (PCC). In addition, we studied the effects of DRTs, model complexity, and sample size on the predictive performance of SDMs. The predictive performance of SDMs under DRTs other than KPCA is better than using PCC. And the predictive performance of SDMs using linear DRTs is better than using nonlinear DRTs. In addition, using DRTs to deal with environmental variables has no less impact on the predictive performance of SDMs than model complexity and sample size. When the model complexity is at the complex level, PCA can improve the predictive performance of SDMs the most by 2.55% compared with PCC. At the middle level of sample size, the PCA improved the predictive performance of SDMs by 2.68% compared with the PCC. Our study demonstrates that DRTs have a significant effect on the predictive performance of SDMs. Specifically, linear DRTs, especially PCA, are more effective at improving model predictive performance under relatively complex model complexity or large sample sizes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao‐Tian Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Computer ScienceNorthwest Minzu UniversityLanzhouChina
| | - Wen‐Yong Guo
- Research Center for Global Change and Complex Ecosystems, School of Ecological and Environmental SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghaiChina
- Zhejiang Tiantong Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, School of Ecological and Environmental SciencesEast China Normal UniversityShanghaiChina
| | - Wen‐Ting Wang
- School of Mathematics and Computer ScienceNorthwest Minzu UniversityLanzhouChina
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Zhang P, Zhang S, Zou Y, Wu T, Li F, Deng Z, Zhang H, Song Y, Xie Y. Integrating suitable habitat dynamics under typical hydrological regimes as guides for the conservation and restoration of different waterbird groups. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 345:118451. [PMID: 37385199 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118451] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2023] [Revised: 05/17/2023] [Accepted: 06/16/2023] [Indexed: 07/01/2023]
Abstract
The operation of the Three Gorges Project (TGP) has influenced the wetland ecosystems downstream, thereby affecting the distribution of habitats suitable for waterbirds. However, dynamic studies on habitat distribution under different water regimes are lacking. Here, using data from three successive wintering periods representing three typical water regimes, we modelled and mapped the habitat suitability of three waterbird groups in Dongting Lake, which is the first river-connected lake downstream of the TGP, and a crucial wintering ground for waterbirds along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. The results showed that the spatial pattern of habitat suitability varied among the wintering periods and waterbird groups. The analysis estimated the largest suitable habitat area for the herbivorous/tuber-eating group (HTG) and the insectivorous waterbird group (ING) under a normal water recession pattern, whereas early water recession had a more adverse effect. The suitable habitat area for the piscivorous/omnivorous group (POG) was higher under late water recession than under normal conditions. The ING was the most affected by hydrological changes among the three waterbird groups. Further, we identified the key conservation and potential restoration habitats. The HTG exhibited the largest key conservation habitat area compared to the other two groups, while the ING showed a potential restoration habitat area larger than its key conservation habitat area, indicating its sensitivity to environmental changes. The optimal inundation durations from September 1 to January 20 for HTG, ING and POG were 52 ± 7 d, 68 ± 18 d, and 132 ± 22 d, respectively. Therefore, the water recession starting in mid-October may be favourable for waterbirds in Dongting Lake. Altogether, our results can be used as guidance for prioritising certain management actions for waterbird conservation. Moreover, our study highlighted the importance of considering habitat spatiotemporal variation in highly dynamic wetlands when implementing management practices.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pingyang Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China; Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China
| | - Siqi Zhang
- Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
| | - Yeai Zou
- Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China; Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China.
| | - Ting Wu
- College of Resources and Environment, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha, 410128, China
| | - Feng Li
- Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China; Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China
| | - Zhengmiao Deng
- Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China; Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China
| | - Hong Zhang
- Forestry Bureau of Yueyang, Yueyang, 414000, China
| | - Yucheng Song
- Administrative Bureau of Hunan East Dongting Lake National Nature Reserve, Yueyang, 414000, China
| | - Yonghong Xie
- Key Laboratory of Agro-ecological Processes in Subtropical Regions, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China; Dongting Lake Station for Wetland Ecosystem Research, Institute of Subtropical Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changsha, 410125, China.
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Imron MA, Glass DM, Tafrichan M, Crego RD, Stabach JA, Leimgruber P. Beyond protected areas: The importance of mixed-use landscapes for the conservation of Sumatran elephants ( Elephas maximus sumatranus). Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10560. [PMID: 37780084 PMCID: PMC10539044 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10560] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2022] [Revised: 08/06/2023] [Accepted: 09/01/2023] [Indexed: 10/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Elephants were once widely distributed across the Indonesian island of Sumatra but now exist in small, isolated populations. Using the best data available on elephant occurrence, we aimed to (a) predict potential habitat suitability for elephants (Elephas maximus sumatranus) across the island of Sumatra and (b) model landscape connectivity among the extant elephant populations. We used direct sightings and indirect observations of elephant signs, as well as six remotely sensed proxies of surface ruggedness, vegetation productivity and structure, and human land use and disturbance, to model habitat suitability in a Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. We validated the habitat suitability prediction using 10-fold spatial block cross validation and by calculating the area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR), sensitivity, and specificity for each model iteration. We also used a geolocation dataset collected from global positioning system (GPS) collars fitted on elephants as an independent validation dataset. Models showed good predictive performance with a mean AUC-PR of 0.73, sensitivity of 0.76, and specificity of 0.68. Greater than 83% of the independent GPS collar geolocations were located in predicted suitable habitat. We found human modification, surface ruggedness, and normalized difference vegetation index to be the most important variables for predicting suitable elephant habitat. Thirty-two percent, or 135,646 km2, of Sumatra's land area was predicted to be suitable habitat, with 43 patches of suitable habitat located across Sumatra. Areas with high connectivity were concentrated in the Riau and North Sumatra provinces. Though our analysis highlights the need to improve the quality of data collected on Sumatran elephants, more suitable habitat remains on Sumatra than is used by known populations. Targeted habitat conservation, especially of the suitable habitat in and around the Lamno, Balai Raja, Tesso Tenggara, Tesso Utara, Bukit Tigapuluh, Seblat, Padang Sugihan, and Bukit Barisan Selatan ranges, may improve the long-term viability of this critically endangered species.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Danielle M. Glass
- Smithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology InstituteConservation Ecology CenterFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
| | | | - Ramiro D. Crego
- Smithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology InstituteConservation Ecology CenterFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
- School of Biological, Earth & Environmental SciencesUniversity College CorkCorkIreland
| | - Jared A. Stabach
- Smithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology InstituteConservation Ecology CenterFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
| | - Peter Leimgruber
- Smithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology InstituteConservation Ecology CenterFront RoyalVirginiaUSA
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Burner RC, Stephan JG, Drag L, Potterf M, Birkemoe T, Siitonen J, Müller J, Ovaskainen O, Sverdrup‐Thygeson A, Snäll T. Alternative measures of trait-niche relationships: A test on dispersal traits in saproxylic beetles. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10588. [PMID: 37869428 PMCID: PMC10585442 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10588] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2023] [Revised: 09/11/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
Functional trait approaches are common in ecology, but a lack of clear hypotheses on how traits relate to environmental gradients (i.e., trait-niche relationships) often makes uncovering mechanisms difficult. Furthermore, measures of community functional structure differ in their implications, yet inferences are seldom compared among metrics. Community-weighted mean trait values (CWMs), a common measure, are largely driven by the most common species and thus do not reflect community-wide trait-niche relationships per se. Alternatively, trait-niche relationships can be estimated across a larger group of species using hierarchical joint species distribution models (JSDMs), quantified by a parameter Γ. We investigated how inferences about trait-niche relationships are affected by the choice of metric. Using deadwood-dependent (saproxylic) beetles in fragmented Finnish forests, we followed a protocol for investigating trait-niche relationships by (1) identifying environmental filters (climate, forest age, and deadwood volume), (2) relating these to an ecological function (dispersal ability), and (3) identifying traits related to this function (wing morphology). We tested 18 hypothesized dispersal relationships using both CWM and Γ estimates across these environmental gradients. CWMs were more likely than Γ to show support for trait-niche relationships. Up to 13% of species' realized niches were explained by dispersal traits, but the directions of effects were consistent with fewer than 11%-39% of our 18 trait-niche hypotheses (depending on the metric used). This highlights the difficulty in connecting morphological traits and ecological functions in insects, despite the clear conceptual link between landscape connectivity and flight-related traits. Caution is thus warranted in hypothesis development, particularly where apparent trait-function links are less clear. Inferences differ when CWMs versus Γ estimates are used, necessitating the choice of a metric that reflects study questions. CWMs help explain the effects of environmental gradients on community trait composition, whereas the effects of traits on species' niches are better estimated using hierarchical JSDMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ryan C. Burner
- U.S. Geological SurveyUpper Midwest Environmental Sciences CenterLa CrosseWisconsinUSA
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource ManagementNorwegian University of Life SciencesÅsNorway
| | - Jörg G. Stephan
- SLU Swedish Species Information CentreSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
| | - Lukas Drag
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, BiocenterUniversity of WürzburgRauhenebrachGermany
- Institute of EntomologyBiology Centre of the Czech Academy of SciencesCeske BudejoviceCzech Republic
| | - Mária Potterf
- Department of Life Science SystemsTechnical University of MunichFreisingBavariaGermany
| | - Tone Birkemoe
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource ManagementNorwegian University of Life SciencesÅsNorway
| | - Juha Siitonen
- Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)HelsinkiFinland
| | - Jörg Müller
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, BiocenterUniversity of WürzburgRauhenebrachGermany
- Bavarian Forest National ParkGrafenauGermany
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Department of Biological and Environmental ScienceUniversity of JyväskyläJyväskyläFinland
- Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental SciencesUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
- Department of Biology, Centre for Biodiversity DynamicsNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway
| | - Anne Sverdrup‐Thygeson
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource ManagementNorwegian University of Life SciencesÅsNorway
| | - Tord Snäll
- SLU Swedish Species Information CentreSwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsalaSweden
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Ahmed AS, Bekele A, Kasso M, Atickem A. Impact of climate change on the distribution and predicted habitat suitability of two fruit bats ( Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus) in Ethiopia: Implications for conservation. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10481. [PMID: 37711498 PMCID: PMC10497737 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2023] [Revised: 08/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/08/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Fruit bats serve as crucial bioindicators, seed dispersers, pollinators, and contributors to food security within ecosystems. However, their population and distribution were threatened by climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Understanding the impacts of these pressures through mapping distribution and habitat suitability is crucial for identifying high-priority areas and implementing effective conservation and management plans. We predicted the distribution and extent of habitat suitability for Rousettus aegyptiacus and Epomophorus labiatus under climate change scenarios using average predictions from four different algorithms to produce an ensemble model. Seasonal precipitation, population index, land-use land cover, vegetation, and the mean temperature of the driest quarter majorly contributed to the predicted habitat suitability for both species. The current predicted sizes of suitable habitats for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus were varied, on average 60,271.4 and 85,176.1 km2, respectively. The change in species range size for R. aegyptiacus showed gains in suitable areas of 24.4% and 22.8% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. However, for E. labiatus, suitable areas decreased by 0.95% and 2% in 2050 and 2070, respectively. The range size change of suitable areas between 2050 and 2070 for R. aegyptiacus and E. labiatus shows losses of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The predicted maps indicate that the midlands and highlands of southern and eastern Ethiopia harbor highly suitable areas for both species. In contrast, the areas in the northern and central highlands are fragmented. The current model findings show that climate change and anthropogenic pressures have notable impacts on the geographic ranges of two species. Moreover, the predicted suitable habitats for both species are found both within and outside of their historical ranges, which has important implications for conservation efforts. Our ensemble predictions are vital for identifying high-priority areas for fruit bat species conservation efforts and management to mitigate climate change and anthropogenic pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed Seid Ahmed
- Department of BiologyHawassa UniversityHawassaEthiopia
- Department of Zoological SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
| | - Afework Bekele
- Department of Zoological SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
| | - Mohammed Kasso
- Department of BiologyDire Dawa UniversityDire DawaEthiopia
| | - Anagaw Atickem
- Department of Zoological SciencesAddis Ababa UniversityAddis AbabaEthiopia
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Yang M, Zhao H, Xian X, Qi Y, Li Q, Guo J, Chen L, Liu W. Reconstructed Global Invasion and Spatio-Temporal Distribution Pattern Dynamics of Sorghum halepense under Climate and Land-Use Change. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:3128. [PMID: 37687374 PMCID: PMC10489930 DOI: 10.3390/plants12173128] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2023] [Revised: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 08/28/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
Sorghum halepense competes with crops and grass species in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, increasing invasion risk. However, the invasive historical dynamics and distribution patterns of S. halepense associated with current and future climate change and land-use change (LUC) remain unknown. We first analyzed the invasive historical dynamics of S. halepense to explore its invasion status and expansion trends. We then used a species distribution model to examine how future climate change and LUC will facilitate the invasion of S. halepense. We reconstructed the countries that have historically been invaded by S. halepense based on databases with detailed records of countries and occurrences. We ran biomod2 based on climate data and land-use data at 5' resolution, assessing the significance of environmental variables and LUC. Sorghum halepense was widely distributed worldwide through grain trade and forage introduction, except in Africa. Europe and North America provided most potential global suitable habitats (PGSHs) for S. halepense in cropland, grassland, and urban environments, representing 48.69%, 20.79%, and 84.82%, respectively. The future PGSHs of S. halepense increased continuously in the Northern Hemisphere, transferring to higher latitudes. Environmental variables were more significant than LUC in predicting the PGSHs of S. halepense. Future PGSHs of S. halepense are expected to increase, exacerbating the invasion risk through agricultural LUC. These results provide a basis for the early warning and prevention of S. halepense worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming Yang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
- School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
| | - Haoxiang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Xiaoqing Xian
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Yuhan Qi
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Qiao Li
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Jianying Guo
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Li Chen
- School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding 071000, China
| | - Wanxue Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China
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Tran DV, Vu TT, Fukutani K, Nishikawa K. Demographic and ecological niche dynamics of the Vietnam warty newt, Paramesotriton deloustali: Historical climate influences. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290044. [PMID: 37594998 PMCID: PMC10437943 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Quaternary climatic cycles strongly affected the genetic diversification and ranges of organisms, shaping current genetic structures and distribution patterns. Urodeles provide ideal examples for exploring these dynamics over time and across space. In this study, we integrated a phylogeographic approach and ensemble species distribution modeling (eSDM) to infer the historical demography and distribution patterns of the Vietnam warty newt, Paramesotriton deloustali. Mitochondrial data revealed two groups, West and East, which diverged approximately 1.92 million years ago (Mya). Diversification was likely driven by change in the climate during early stages of the Pleistocene, with increasing monsoon and drought intensities. Biogeographic analysis indicated that the newt's current distribution formed as a result of vicariance events. In addition, the two groups occupy distinct ecological niches. Demographic reconstruction showed signs of expansion in the effective population sizes of the two major groups beginning around 0.11 and 0.15 Mya, respectively. However, eSDM showed fluctuating predicted distributions during the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present. Mountain systems in northern Vietnam are likely to have served as climatic refuges and to have played a crucial role in safeguarding species from the effects of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dung Van Tran
- Graduate School of Human and Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
- Wildlife Department, Vietnam National University of Forestry, Ha Noi, Vietnam
| | - Thinh Tien Vu
- Wildlife Department, Vietnam National University of Forestry, Ha Noi, Vietnam
| | - Kazumi Fukutani
- Graduate School of Human and Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Kanto Nishikawa
- Graduate School of Human and Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
- Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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Nikkel E, Clements DR, Anderson D, Williams JL. Regional habitat suitability for aquatic and terrestrial invasive plant species may expand or contract with climate change. Biol Invasions 2023; 25:3805-3822. [PMID: 37854296 PMCID: PMC10579163 DOI: 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Accepted: 07/14/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023]
Abstract
The threat of invasive species to biodiversity and ecosystem structure is exacerbated by the increasingly concerning outlook of predicted climate change and other human influences. Developing preventative management strategies for invasive plant species before they establish is crucial for effective management. To examine how climate change may impact habitat suitability, we modeled the current and future habitat suitability of two terrestrial species, Geranium lucidum and Pilosella officinarum, and two aquatic species, Butomus umbellatus and Pontederia crassipes, that are relatively new invasive plant species regionally, and are currently spreading in the Pacific Northwest (PNW, North America), an area of unique natural areas, vibrant economic activity, and increasing human population. Using North American presence records, downscaled climate variables, and human influence data, we developed an ensemble model of six algorithms to predict the potential habitat suitability under current conditions and projected climate scenarios RCP 4.5, 7.0, and 8.5 for 2050 and 2080. One terrestrial species (P. officinarum) showed declining habitat suitability in future climate scenarios (contracted distribution), while the other terrestrial species (G. lucidum) showed increased suitability over much of the region (expanded distribution overall). The two aquatic species were predicted to have only moderately increased suitability, suggesting aquatic plant species may be less impacted by climate change. Our research provides a template for regional-scale modelling of invasive species of concern, thus assisting local land managers and practitioners to inform current and future management strategies and to prioritize limited available resources for species with expanding ranges. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10530-023-03139-8.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emma Nikkel
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada
| | - David R. Clements
- Department of Biology, Trinity Western University, Langley, BC Canada
| | - Delia Anderson
- Department of Biology, Trinity Western University, Langley, BC Canada
| | - Jennifer L. Williams
- Department of Geography and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC Canada
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Gao M, Zhao G, Zhang S, Wang Z, Wen X, Liu L, Zhang C, Tie N, Sa R. Priority conservation area of Larix gmelinii under climate change: application of an ensemble modeling. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2023; 14:1177307. [PMID: 37229107 PMCID: PMC10204769 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1177307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/10/2023] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen is a major tree species with high economic and ecological value in the Greater Khingan Mountains coniferous forest of Northeast China. Reconstructing the priority Conservation Area of Larix gmelinii under Climate could provide a scientific basis for its germplasm conservation and management. The present study used ensemble and Marxan model simulations to predict species distribution areas and delineate priority conservation areas for Larix gmelinii in relation to productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics, and climate change impacts. The study revealed that the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Mountains, with an area of approximately 300 974.2 km2, were the most suitable for L. gmelinii. The stand productivity of L. gmelinii in the most suitable area was significantly higher than that in the less suitable and marginally suitable areas, but understory plant diversity was not dominant. The increase in temperature under future climate change scenarios will reduce the potential distribution and area under L. gmelinii; the species will migrate to higher latitudes of the Greater Khingan Mountains, while the degree of niche migration will gradually increase. Under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the most suitable area for L. gmelinii will completely disappear, and the climate model niche will be completely separated. Therefore, the protected area of L. gmelinii was demarcated with a target of the productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics and climate change sensitive area, and the current key protected area was 8.38 × 104 km2. Overall, the study's findings will lay a foundation for the protection and rational development and utilization of cold temperate coniferous forests dominated by L. gmelinii in the northern forested region of the Greater Khingan Mountains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Minglong Gao
- College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
| | - Guanghua Zhao
- College of Life Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan, China
- Administrative office, Shanwei Middle School, Shanwei, China
| | - Shuning Zhang
- College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
| | - Zirui Wang
- College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
| | - Xuanye Wen
- College of Forestry, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou, China
| | - Lei Liu
- College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
| | - Chen Zhang
- College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
| | - Niu Tie
- Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot, China
| | - Rula Sa
- College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, China
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Zheng J, Wei H, Chen R, Liu J, Wang L, Gu W. Invasive Trends of Spartina alterniflora in the Southeastern Coast of China and Potential Distributional Impacts on Mangrove Forests. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:1923. [PMID: 37653840 PMCID: PMC10222674 DOI: 10.3390/plants12101923] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2023] [Revised: 04/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 09/02/2023]
Abstract
Mangrove forests are one of the most productive and seriously threatened ecosystems in the world. The widespread invasion of Spartina alterniflora has seriously imperiled the security of mangroves as well as coastal mudflat ecosystems. Based on a model evaluation index, we selected RF, GBM, and GLM as a predictive model for building a high-precision ensemble model. We used the species occurrence records combined with bioclimate, sea-land topography, and marine environmental factors to predict the potentially suitable habitats of mangrove forests and the potentially suitable invasive habitats of S. alterniflora in the southeastern coast of China. We then applied the invasion risk index (IRI) to assess the risk that S. alterniflora would invade mangrove forests. The results show that the suitable habitats for mangrove forests are mainly distributed along the coastal provinces of Guangdong, Hainan, and the eastern coast of Guangxi. The suitable invasive habitats for S. alterniflora are mainly distributed along the coast of Zhejiang, Fujian, and relatively less in the southern provinces. The high-risk areas for S. alterniflora invasion of mangrove forests are concentrated in Zhejiang and Fujian. Bioclimate variables are the most important variables affecting the survival and distribution of mangrove forests and S. alterniflora. Among them, temperature is the most important environmental variable determining the large-scale distribution of mangrove forests. Meanwhile, S. alterniflora is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature. Our results can provide scientific insights and references for mangrove forest conservation and control of S. alterniflora.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaying Zheng
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China; (J.Z.); (R.C.)
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
| | - Haiyan Wei
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China; (J.Z.); (R.C.)
| | - Ruidun Chen
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China; (J.Z.); (R.C.)
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
| | - Jiamin Liu
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China; (J.Z.); (R.C.)
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
| | - Lukun Wang
- School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China; (J.Z.); (R.C.)
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
| | - Wei Gu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Resource Development of Endangered Crude Drugs in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
- College of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi’an 710119, China
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Shaban M, Ghehsareh Ardestani E, Ebrahimi A, Borhani M. Climate change impacts on optimal habitat of Stachys inflata medicinal plant in central Iran. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6580. [PMID: 37085511 PMCID: PMC10121668 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-33660-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2022] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 04/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Stachys inflata Benth. is a perennial shrub plant, with powerful natural antioxidant agents, which is recognized as a famous medicinal plant that is widely applied to treat Infection, Asthma, and Rheumatism. Iran is renowned as a center of diversity for Stachys, however, the ideal habitats of S. inflata in this nation remain unknown. The potential and future distribution of suitable habitats for S. inflata were projected using an ensembles ecological niche model in Isfahan province, Iran. We used occurrence data (using GPS), bioclimatic and topographic variables from the Chelsa and WorldClim databases to model the current and future potential distribution of this valuable species. The results showed that: (i) S. inflata is mainly distributed in the south, southwest, center, and west of the Isfahan province, and the excellent habitats of S. inflata accounted for 14.34% of the 107,000 km2 study area; (ii) mean annual temperature, mean daily temperature of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, and elevation were the four most important variables that affect the distribution of S. inflata, with a cumulative contribution of 56.55%; and (iii) about the half (- 42.36%) of the currently excellent habitats of S. inflata show a tendency to decrease from now to the 2080s, while often the area of other S. inflata habitats increases (the area of unsuitable habitat: 5.83%, the area of low habitat suitability: 24.68%, the area of moderate habitat suitability: 2.66%, and the area of high habitat suitability: 2.88%). The increase in the area of other S. inflata habitats is different and they are less favorable than the excellent habitat. The results help establishing a framework for long-term in-situ and ex-situ conservation and management practices in habitats of S. inflata in rangeland and agricultural ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mehdi Shaban
- Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, 8818634141, Iran
| | - Elham Ghehsareh Ardestani
- Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, 8818634141, Iran.
- Central Laboratory, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, 8818634141, Iran.
| | - Ataollah Ebrahimi
- Department of Rangeland and Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, 8818634141, Iran
| | - Massoud Borhani
- Natural Resources Research Division, Isfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Isfahan, Iran
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Almeida AM, Ribeiro MM, Ferreira MR, Roque N, Quintela-Sabarís C, Fernandez P. Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L. Front Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2023.1136224] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future (for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The species’ presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050 and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most suitable for the species’ occurrence and that future changes in environmental conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification avoidance.
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Habitat Suitability and Conflict Zone Mapping for the Blue Bull ( Boselaphus tragocamelus) across Nepal. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:ani13050937. [PMID: 36899794 PMCID: PMC10000234 DOI: 10.3390/ani13050937] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Revised: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 03/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Rapidly changing environmental conditions (bioclimatic, anthropogenic, topographic, and vegetation-related variables) are likely to alter the spatial distribution of flora and fauna. To understand the influence of environmental variables on the Blue bull's distribution and to identify potential conflict zones, the habitat suitability analysis of the Blue bull was performed using ensemble modeling. We modelled the distribution of the Blue bull using an extensive database on the current distribution of the Blue bull and selected 15 ecologically significant environmental variables. We used ten species distribution modeling algorithms available in the BIOMOD2 R package. Among the ten algorithms, the Random Forest, Maxent, and Generalized linear model had the highest mean true skill statistics scores, ensuring better model performance, and were considered for further analysis. We found that 22,462.57 km2 (15.26%) of Nepal is suitable for the Blue bull. Slope, precipitation seasonality, and distance to the road are the environmental variables contributing the most to the distribution of Blue bull. Of the total predicted suitable habitats, 86% lies outside protected areas and 55% overlaps with agricultural land. Thus, we recommend that the future conservation initiatives including appropriate conflict mitigation measures should be prioritized equally in both protected areas and outside protected areas to ensure the species' survival in the region.
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El Alaoui O, Idri A. Predicting the potential distribution of wheatear birds using stacked generalization-based ensembles. ECOL INFORM 2023. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/03/2023]
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Xian X, Zhao H, Wang R, Huang H, Chen B, Zhang G, Liu W, Wan F. Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 859:160252. [PMID: 36427731 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 11/07/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Invasive alien plants (IAPs) substantially affect the native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health worldwide. Ambrosia (ragweed) species, which are major IAPs globally, produce a significant impact on human health and the natural environment. In particular, invasion of A. artemisiifolia, A. psilostachya, and A. trifida in non-native continents is more extensive and severe than that of other species. Here, we used biomod2 ensemble model based on environmental and species occurrence data to predict the potential geographical distribution, overlapping geographical distribution areas, and the ecological niche dynamics of these three ragweeds and further explored the environmental variables shaping the observed patterns to assess the impact of these IAPs on the natural environment and public health. The ecological niche has shifted in the invasive area compared with that in the native area, which increased the invasion risk of three Ambrosia species during the invasion process in the world. The potential geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species are primarily distributed in Asia, North America, and Europe, and are expected to increase under four representative concentration pathways in the 2050s. The centers of potential geographical distributions of the three Ambrosia species showed a tendency to shift poleward from the current time to the 2050s. Bioclimatic variables and the human influence index were more significant in shaping these patterns than other factors. In brief, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species. Ecomanagement and cross-country management strategies are warranted to mitigate the future effects of the expansion of these ragweed species worldwide in the Anthropocene on the natural environment and public health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoqing Xian
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Haoxiang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Rui Wang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Hongkun Huang
- Rural Energy and Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China
| | - Baoxiong Chen
- Rural Energy and Environment Agency, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100125, China
| | - Guifen Zhang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Wanxue Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China.
| | - Fanghao Wan
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
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Zhao H, Xian X, Liang T, Wan F, Shi J, Liu W. Constructing an Ensemble Model and Niche Comparison for the Management Planning of Eucalyptus Longhorned Borer Phoracantha semipunctata under Climate Change. INSECTS 2023; 14:84. [PMID: 36662011 PMCID: PMC9866156 DOI: 10.3390/insects14010084] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2022] [Revised: 01/10/2023] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Phoracantha semipunctata is a destructive invasive alien forest pest worldwide. It primarily damages the eucalyptus via adults, affecting almost all parts of the eucalyptus. Its larvae develop in almost all major tissues of the plant. Phoracantha semipunctata spreads both via the migration of adults and global trade in intercontinental translocation. Currently, this pest has spread to six continents worldwide, except Antarctica, resulting in substantial economic losses. Based on global occurrence data and environmental variables, the potential global geographical distribution of P. semipunctata was predicted using an ensemble model. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion scheme were selected to assess niche dynamics during the global invasion process. Our results indicated that the AUC and TSS values of the ensemble model were 0.993 and 0.917, respectively, indicating the high prediction accuracy of the model. The distribution pattern of P. semipunctata is primarily attributed to the temperature seasonality (bio4), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and human influence index variables. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata is primarily in western and southwestern Asia, western Europe, western and southern North America, southern South America, southern Africa, and eastern and southern Oceania. The potential geographical distribution of P. semipunctata showed a downward trend in the 2030s and the 2050s. The distribution centroid showed a general tendency to shift southward from the near-current to future climate. Phoracantha semipunctata has largely conserved its niche during the global invasion process. More attention should be paid to the early warning, prevention, and control of P. semipunctata in the countries and regions where it has not yet become invasive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Haoxiang Zhao
- The College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100193, China
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Xiaoqing Xian
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Te Liang
- The College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Fanghao Wan
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Juan Shi
- The College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100193, China
| | - Wanxue Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100193, China
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Potts JR, Börger L. How to scale up from animal movement decisions to spatiotemporal patterns: An approach via step selection. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:16-29. [PMID: 36321473 PMCID: PMC10099581 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2022] [Accepted: 10/16/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Uncovering the mechanisms behind animal space use patterns is of vital importance for predictive ecology, thus conservation and management of ecosystems. Movement is a core driver of those patterns so understanding how movement mechanisms give rise to space use patterns has become an increasingly active area of research. This study focuses on a particular strand of research in this area, based around step selection analysis (SSA). SSA is a popular way of inferring drivers of movement decisions, but, perhaps less well appreciated, it also parametrises a model of animal movement. Of key interest is that this model can be propagated forwards in time to predict the space use patterns over broader spatial and temporal scales than those that pertain to the proximate movement decisions of animals. Here, we provide a guide for understanding and using the various existing techniques for scaling up step selection models to predict broad-scale space use patterns. We give practical guidance on when to use which technique, as well as specific examples together with code in R and Python. By pulling together various disparate techniques into one place, and providing code and instructions in simple examples, we hope to highlight the importance of these techniques and make them accessible to a wider range of ecologists, ultimately helping expand the usefulness of SSA.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan R Potts
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Luca Börger
- Department of Biosciences, College of Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.,Centre for Biomathematics, College of Science, Swansea University, Swansea, UK
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Roilo S, Engler JO, Václavík T, Cord AF. Landscape-level heterogeneity of agri-environment measures improves habitat suitability for farmland birds. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2720. [PMID: 36173257 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2021] [Revised: 04/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Agri-environment schemes (AESs), ecological focus areas (EFAs), and organic farming are the main tools of the common agricultural policy (CAP) to counteract the dramatic decline of farmland biodiversity in Europe. However, their effectiveness is repeatedly doubted because it seems to vary when measured at the field-versus-landscape level and to depend on the regional environmental and land-use context. Understanding the heterogeneity of their effectiveness is thus crucial to developing management recommendations that maximize their efficacy. Using ensemble species distribution models and spatially explicit field-level information on crops grown, farming practice (organic/conventional), and applied AES/EFA from the Integrated Administration and Control System, we investigated the contributions of five groups of measures (buffer areas, cover crops, extensive grassland management, fallow land, and organic farming) to habitat suitability for 15 farmland bird species in the Mulde River Basin, Germany. We used a multiscale approach to identify the scale of effect of the selected measures. Using simulated land-use scenarios, we further examined how breeding habitat suitability would change if the measures were completely removed and if their adoption by farmers increased to meet conservation-informed targets. Buffer areas, fallow land, and extensive grassland were beneficial measures for most species, but cover crops and organic farming had contrasting effects across species. While different measures acted at different spatial scales, our results highlight the importance of land-use management at the landscape level-at which most measures had the strongest effect. We found that the current level of adoption of the measures delivers only modest gains in breeding habitat suitability. However, habitat suitability improved for the majority of species when the implementation of the measures was increased, suggesting that they could be effective conservation tools if higher adoption levels were reached. The heterogeneity of responses across species and spatial scales indicated that a mix of different measures, applied widely across the agricultural landscape, would likely maximize the benefits for biodiversity. This can only be achieved if the measures in the future CAP will be cooperatively designed in a regionally targeted way to improve their attractiveness for farmers and widen their uptake.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephanie Roilo
- Computational Landscape Ecology, Institute of Geography, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Jan O Engler
- Computational Landscape Ecology, Institute of Geography, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
| | - Tomáš Václavík
- Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Palacký University Olomouc, Olomouc, Czech Republic
- Department of Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems, Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Anna F Cord
- Computational Landscape Ecology, Institute of Geography, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
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Dramani R, Gouwakinnou GN, Houdanon RD, De Kesel A, Minter D, Yorou NS. Ecological niche modelling of Cantharellus species in Benin, and revision of their conservation status. FUNGAL ECOL 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.funeco.2022.101174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
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de Lourdes Nuñez Landa M, Carlos Montero Castro J, César Monterrubio-Rico T, Lara-Cabrera SI, Prieto-Torres DA. Predicting co-distribution patterns of parrots and woody plants under global changes: The case of the Lilac-crowned Amazon and Neotropical dry forests. J Nat Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2022.126323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
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Zhang Y, Liao Z, Jiang H, Tu W, Wu N, Qiu X, Zhang Y. Climatic Variability Caused by Topographic Barrier Prevents the Northward Spread of Invasive Ageratina adenophora. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 11:3108. [PMID: 36432837 PMCID: PMC9695367 DOI: 10.3390/plants11223108] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/21/2022] [Revised: 11/12/2022] [Accepted: 11/13/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. is one of the most threatening invasive alien plants in China. Since its initial invasion into Yunnan in the 1940s, it spread rapidly northward to southern Mount Nyba in Sichuan, which lies on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. During fieldwork, we found an interesting phenomenon: A. adenophora failed to expand northward across Mount Nyba, even after the opening of the 10 km tunnel, which could have served as a potential corridor for its spread. In this work, to explore the key factors influencing its distribution and spread patterns, we used a combination of ensemble species distribution models with the MigClim model. We found that the temperature annual range (TAR), precipitation of driest month (PDM), highway density (HW), and wind speed (WS) were the most predominant factors affecting its distribution. The north of Mount Nyba is not suitable for A. adenophora survival due to higher TAR. The spatial-temporal dynamic invasion simulation using MigClim further illustrated that the northward invasion of A. adenophora was stopped by Mount Nyba. Overall, Mount Nyba may act as a topographic barrier that causes environmental differences between its south and north sides, preventing the northward invasion of A. adenophora. However, other suitable habitats on the northern side of the mountain still face challenges because A. adenophora is likely to invade via other routes. Therefore, long-term monitoring is needed to prevent human-induced long-distance spread events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi Zhang
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Ziyan Liao
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Han Jiang
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Wenqin Tu
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Ning Wu
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Xiaoping Qiu
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Yongmei Zhang
- China-Croatia ‘Belt and Road’ Joint Laboratory on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041, China
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de Oliveira PRF, de Melo RPB, de Oliveira UDR, Magalhães FJR, Junior RJF, Andrade MR, Mota RA. Detection of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soil and risk mapping in an island environment in the Northeast of Brazil. Transbound Emerg Dis 2022; 69:3457-3467. [PMID: 36087041 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.14705] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2022] [Revised: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Toxoplasmosis is an emerging and re-emerging infectious disease that can be transmitted through a contaminated environment. Environmental contamination is an emergency health issue, and determining its occurrence is fundamental to a One Health approach. In this study, we addressed the extent of environmental contamination and viability of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soil in different environments on Fernando de Noronha Island, Brazil. In addition, we performed species distribution modelling to predict the environmental suitability for coccidia persistence in the studied area. Soil samples were collected in 14 neighbourhoods of the Island and in the four main squares, creating a total of 95 soil samples (five samples per site). The samples were analyzed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique for the presence of the 18S ribosomal DNA gene of Apicomplexan protozoa, followed by genetic sequencing. We obtained 4.2% (4/95) positive soil samples with 100% similarity for T. gondii sequences. Two out of four positive sites on PCR showed viability of T. gondii oocysts through the mouse bioassay technique. As a result of the application of the species distribution modelling, environmental adequacy for the coccidia was observed throughout the Island. The results confirm the contamination of the soil in this insular environment by T. gondii oocysts and the environmental suitability by modelling application. These findings are an alert for the possibility of infection in animals and humans by contaminated soil, and for contamination of the maritime environment in addition to water resources for consumption by the local population.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Müller Ribeiro Andrade
- Parasitology Sector - Institute of Biological and Health Sciences, Federal University of Alagoas, Maceió, Brazil
| | - Rinaldo Aparecido Mota
- Departament of Veterinary Medicine, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil
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Zhang MX, Chen Y, Guo JX, Zhang R, Bi YQ, Wei XX, Niu H, Zhang CH, Li MH. Complex ecological and socioeconomic impacts on medicinal plant diversity. Front Pharmacol 2022; 13:979890. [PMID: 36339592 PMCID: PMC9627218 DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2022.979890] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 10/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Medicinal plant diversity (MPD) is an important component of plant diversity. Over-collection based on medicinal and economic value has the potential to damage the stability of the regional ecosystem. It is important to understand the current distribution of MPD and the factors influencing it. However, it is still unclear whether environmental and socioeconomic conditions have an impact on their distribution. We selected the Inner Mongolia as a representative study area which covers a wide area, accounting for 12.29% of China’s national land area and 0.79% of the world’s land area. At the same time, the region is a long-standing traditional medicinal area for Mongolians in China. Therefore, the region is significantly influenced by changes in environmental factors and socio-economic factors. We used 9-years field survey of the distribution of medicinal plants in Inner Mongolia for assessing the distribution of MPD as influenced by environmental and socioeconomic activities by combining spatial analyses, species distribution models, and generalized additive models. The results from the spatial analysis show that the western region of Inner Mongolia is the main cold spot area of the MPD, and the central-eastern and northeastern regions of Inner Mongolia are the main hot spot areas of the MPD. At the same time, the distribution of cold spots and hot spots of MPD is more obvious at large spatial scales, and with the refinement of spatial scales, the cold spots in scattered areas are gradually revealed, which is indicative for the conservation and development of MPD at different spatial scales. Under the future climate change of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP), areas with high habitat suitability for medicinal plants remain mainly dominated by the Yellow River, Yin Mountains, and Greater Khingan Range. Notably, the SSP245 development pathway remains the most significant concern in either long- or short-term development. The nonlinear relationship between the driving factors of MPD at different spatial scales shows that temperature, precipitation and socioeconomic development do have complex effects on MPD. The presence of a certain temperature, altitude, and precipitation range has an optimal facilitation effect on MPD, rather than a single facilitation effect. This complex nonlinear correlation provides a reference for further studies on plant diversity and sustainable development and management. In this study, the spatial distribution of medicinal plant resources and the extent to which they are driven by ecological and socioeconomic factors were analyzed through a macroscopic approach. This provides a reference for larger-scale studies on the environmental and socioeconomic influences on the distribution of plant resources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming-Xu Zhang
- Inner Mongolia Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hohhot, China
- Inner Mongolia Institute of Traditional Chinese and Mongolian Medicine, Hohhot, China
- Baotou Medical College, Baotou, China
| | - Yuan Chen
- Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, China
| | | | - Ru Zhang
- Baotou Medical College, Baotou, China
| | - Ya-Qiong Bi
- Inner Mongolia Institute of Traditional Chinese and Mongolian Medicine, Hohhot, China
| | | | - Hui Niu
- Baotou Medical College, Baotou, China
| | - Chun-Hong Zhang
- Baotou Medical College, Baotou, China
- *Correspondence: Chun-Hong Zhang, ; Min-Hui Li,
| | - Min-Hui Li
- Inner Mongolia Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hohhot, China
- Inner Mongolia Institute of Traditional Chinese and Mongolian Medicine, Hohhot, China
- Baotou Medical College, Baotou, China
- Inner Mongolia Medical University, Hohhot, China
- Inner Mongolia University, Hohhot, China
- Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Characteristic Geoherbs Resources Protection and Utilization, Baotou, China
- *Correspondence: Chun-Hong Zhang, ; Min-Hui Li,
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