Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research

Exploring Biodiversity through the Lens of Knautia arvensis Pollinators: Knautia Pollinator Walks as a Monitoring Method

Declining populations of native pollinators, especially wild bees, underline the urgent need for effective monitoring within agricultural ecosystems. This study aims to (i) establish the 'Knautia Pollinator Walk' as an innovative pollinator monitoring method, (ii) examine the link between pollinator richness/density and land cover, and (iii) assess if specialist solitary bees indicate pollinator abundance and morphogroup richness. The approach involves surveying 500 Knautia arvensis inflorescences per site thrice per season. Observations of 11,567 pollinators across 203 taxa showed significant correlations between pollinator diversity and land use. Pollinator populations fluctuated with land cover type, increasing in open areas but decreasing or stabilising in forested and shrubby regions. Noteworthy differences in pollinator types were seen between Russia (solitary bees, small Diptera, Lepidoptera) and Sweden (bumblebees, beetles, furry Diptera). The "Knautia Pollinator Walk" shows promising signs of being an effective tool for monitoring spatiotemporal biodiversity trends. The method offers a scalable approach to pollinator monitoring, which is essential for developing conservation strategies and supporting pollinator populations.

Field observations and remote assessment identify climate change, recreation, invasive species, and livestock as top threats to critically imperiled rare plants in Nevada

Introduction

Rare plant species comprise >36.5% of the world’s flora and disproportionately support ecosystem function and resilience. However, rare species also lead global plant extinctions, and unique ecological characteristics can make them vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure. Despite their vulnerability, many rare plants receive less monitoring than is needed to inform conservation efforts due to limited capacity for field surveys.

Methods

We used field observations and geospatial data to summarize how 128 imperiled, rare vascular plant species in Nevada are affected by various threats. We assessed correlations between threats predicted by geospatial data and threats observed on the ground and asked how historic and current threats compare.

Results

The most commonly observed threats were from recreation, invasive and non-native/alien species, and livestock farming and ranching. Threat prevalence varied by elevation (e.g., a greater variety of threats at lower elevations, greater threat from climate change observed at higher elevations) and land management. There was a 28.1% overall correlation between predicted and observed threats, which was stronger for some threats (e.g., development of housing and urban areas, livestock farming and ranching) than others. All species experienced extreme climatic differences during 1990-2020 compared to baseline conditions, with the most extreme change in southern Nevada. The average number of threats observed per occurrence increased by 0.024 each decade.

Discussion

While geospatial data did not perfectly predict observed threats, many of these occurrences have not been visited in over 30 years, and correlations may be stronger than we were able to detect here. Our approach can be used to help guide proactive monitoring, conservation, and research efforts for vulnerable species.

Yearly weather variation and surface temperature drives the spatiotemporal dynamics of a threatened butterfly and its host plant

It remains unclear to what extent yearly weather variation and spatial variation in microclimate influences the outcome of interacting plant-animal species and whether responses differ between life stages. We collected data over several years on 46 ha on File Hajdar, Gotland, Sweden, and executed a complete mapping of larva nests (n = 776) and imago (n = 5,952) of the marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia and its host plant Succisa pratensis. The phenology of the butterflies and the major nectar plants visited varied among years. The duration of the adult flight period decreased with increasing ambient air temperatures. The density of butterflies, host plants, and host plant leaf size increased between years with increasing precipitation in the preceding year, and decreased with increasing average ambient air temperature in the preceding year. In 2021–2022 we deployed a unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) with a high-resolution thermal sensor to measure spatial variation in surface temperatures in the study area. We found that survival from the egg to the larva stage increased with increasing surface temperature and host plant density. Host plants and larva nests generally occupied warmer microhabitats compared to imago butterflies. The results further suggested that the relationships linking surface temperature to the densities of imago, larva, host plants, and leaf size differed qualitatively between years. In 2017, larva nests and host plant density increased with increasing surface temperatures, and butterflies showed a non-linear response with a density peak at intermediate temperatures. As a result of the extreme drought in 2018 there was a reduction in maximum leaf size, and in the densities of plants, larvae, and butterflies. Moreover, the slopes of the relationships linking the density of larvae, butterflies, and plants to temperature shifted from linear positive to negative or curvilinear. Our findings demonstrate how yearly weather variation and heterogeneous surface temperatures can drive the spatiotemporal distribution and dynamics of butterflies and their host plants. The context specificity of the responses indicated by our results makes it challenging to project how climate change will affect the dynamics of ecological communities.

Global Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Our world is undergoing rapid planetary changes driven by human activities, often mediated by economic incentives and resource management, affecting all life on Earth. Concurrently, many infectious diseases have recently emerged or spread into new populations. Mounting evidence suggests that global change-including climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of individuals, species, and goods-may be accelerating disease emergence by reshaping ecological systems in concert with socioeconomic factors. Here, we review insights, approaches, and mechanisms by which global change drives disease emergence from a disease ecology perspective. We aim to spur more interdisciplinary collaboration with economists and identification of more effective and sustainable interventions to prevent disease emergence. While almost all infectious diseases change in response to global change, the mechanisms and directions of these effects are system specific, requiring new, integrated approaches to disease control that recognize linkages between environmental and economic sustainability and human and planetary health.

Detecting climate signals in populations across life histories

Climate impacts are not always easily discerned in wild populations as detecting climate change signals in populations is challenged by stochastic noise associated with natural climate variability, variability in biotic and abiotic processes, and observation error in demographic rates. Detection of the impact of climate change on populations requires making a formal distinction between signals in the population associated with long-term climate trends from those generated by stochastic noise. The time of emergence (ToE) identifies when the signal of anthropogenic climate change can be quantitatively distinguished from natural climate variability. This concept has been applied extensively in the climate sciences, but has not been explored in the context of population dynamics. Here, we outline an approach to detecting climate-driven signals in populations based on an assessment of when climate change drives population dynamics beyond the envelope characteristic of stochastic variations in an unperturbed state. Specifically, we present a theoretical assessment of the time of emergence of climate-driven signals in population dynamics ( ToE pop ). We identify the dependence of ToE pop on the magnitude of both trends and variability in climate and also explore the effect of intrinsic demographic controls on ToE pop . We demonstrate that different life histories (fast species vs. slow species), demographic processes (survival, reproduction), and the relationships between climate and demographic rates yield population dynamics that filter climate trends and variability differently. We illustrate empirically how to detect the point in time when anthropogenic signals in populations emerge from stochastic noise for a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguin. Finally, we propose six testable hypotheses and a road map for future research.

Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability

Sustainability-maintaining catches within the historical range of socially and ecologically acceptable values-is key to fisheries success. Climate change may rapidly threaten sustainability, and recognizing these instances is important for effective climate adaptation. Here, we present one approach for evaluating changing sustainability under a changing climate. We use Bayesian regression models to compare fish population processes under historical climate norms and emerging anthropogenic extremes. To define anthropogenic extremes we use the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), which estimates the proportion of risk for extreme ocean temperatures that can be attributed to human influence. We illustrate our approach with estimates of recruitment (production of young fish, a key determinant of sustainability) for two exploited fishes (Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus and walleye pollock G. chalcogrammus) in a rapidly warming ecosystem, the Gulf of Alaska. We show that recruitment distributions for both species have shifted towards zero during anthropogenic climate extremes. Predictions based on the projected incidence of anthropogenic temperature extremes indicate that expected recruitment, and therefore fisheries sustainability, is markedly lower in the current climate than during recent decades. Using FAR to analyze changing population processes may help fisheries managers and stakeholders to recognize situations when historical sustainability expectations should be reevaluated.

Embryonic Development of Grasshopper Populations Along Latitudinal Gradients Reveal Differential Thermoaccumulation for Adaptation to Climate Warming

Climate warming has a remarkable effect on the distribution, phenology, and development of insects. Although the embryonic development and phenology of non-diapause grasshopper species are more susceptible to warming than those of diapause species, the responses of developmental traits in conspecifically different populations to climate warming remain unknown. Here, we compared the mtDNA sequences and embryonic development of eight populations of grasshopper species (Chorthippus dubius) in field-based manipulated warming and laboratory experiments. The mtDNA sequences showed a significant genetic differentiation of the southernmost population from the other seven populations on the Mongolian Plateau. The embryonic development of the southernmost population was significantly slower than those of the northern populations at the same incubation temperatures. Interestingly, laboratory experiments showed that a significant difference exists in the effective accumulated degree days (EADD) but not in the lower development threshold temperatures (LDTT) among the different populations. The high-latitude populations required less EADD than the low-latitude populations. The warming treatments significantly accelerated the embryonic development in the field and decreased duration from embryos to hatchlings of all eight populations in the incubation. In addition, warming treatments in field significantly increased EADD requirement per stage in the incubation. Linear regression model confirmed that the embryonic development characteristics of eight populations were correlated with the annual mean temperature and total precipitation of embryonic development duration. The results indicated that grasshopper species have evolved a strategy of adjusting their EADD but not their LDTT to adapt to temperature changes. The variations in the EADD among the different populations enabled the grasshopper eggs to buffer the influences of higher temperatures on development and preserve their univoltine nature in temperate regions while encountering warmer climatic conditions. Thus, the findings of this study is valuable for our understanding species variation and evolution, and as such has direct implication for modeling biological response to climate warming.

Extreme climate events limit northern range expansion of wild turkeys

For species inhabiting areas at the limit of their environmental tolerance, extreme events often drive population persistence. However, because extreme events are uncommon, their effects on population dynamics of expanding species are poorly known. We examined how extreme climate events in winter and summer affected three populations of wild turkeys occupying a natural climate gradient at the northern edge of their range. First, we examined the mechanism by which vital rates affect the population growth rate. Second, we developed a climate-dependent structured population model. Finally, by linking this population model to IPCC-class climate projections, we projected wild turkey population abundance in response to the frequency of extreme snow events by 2100 for the northernmost population. We showed that the population dynamics of the three populations is driven through different pathways expected from the theory of invading population dynamics; that those populations were mainly limited by heavy snow that decreases winter survival by restraining food access; and that a population of immigrant is projected to decline at the northern species range. This study exemplifies how extreme events affect population dynamics and range expansion of temperate species at the northern edge of the distribution.

Broadening Predictive Understanding of Species’ Range Responses to Climate Change: The Case of Aloidendron dichotomum

Concerns have been raised about attribution of species range shifts to anthropogenic climate change. Species paleo-range projections are emerging as a means to broaden understanding of range shifts and could be applied to assist in attribution. Apparent recent range contraction in the Quiver Tree (Aloidendron dichotomum (Masson) Klopper and Gideon F.Sm) has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but this has been challenged. We simulated the paleo- and future geographic range of A. dichotomum under changing climate using species distribution models (SDMs) to provide a broader perspective on its range dynamics. Ensemble modelling of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene, current, and projected 2070 time periods simulates a paleo-historical poleward expansion of suitable bioclimatic space for this species under natural climate change post-LGM, and projects an eastward shift towards 2070. During the LGM, suitable bioclimatic space for A. dichotomum was simulated to be restricted to the equatorward part of its current range. During the Pleistocene/mid-Holocene climate transition period, the species’ range is predicted to have expanded significantly polewards at an average rate of 0.4 km per decade, assuming constant tracking of its optimal climatic niche. By 2070, suitable bioclimatic space is projected to expand further eastward into the summer rainfall region of South Africa, and contract in its equatorward reaches. Simulated post-LGM shifts roughly match expectations based on preliminary phylogenetic information, further supporting the attribution of current population declines to anthropogenic climate change drivers. Equatorward populations are required to migrate south-eastwards at a rate roughly 15 times faster than that calculated for the LGM/mid-Holocene climate transition period to avoid local extirpation. A preliminary analysis of range-wide genetic variation reveals a cline of variation, with generally higher levels in the central and more northerly part of the species distribution, as expected from the proposed paleo-range of the species. A more detailed analysis of the species’ phylogeographic history could be used to test the proposed paleo-range dynamics presented here, and if confirmed, would provide strong support for the use of this species as an indicator of anthropogenic climate change and a powerful case study for testing the implementation of conservation actions.

Sea ice reduction drives genetic differentiation among Barents Sea polar bears

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is predicted to reduce both genetic diversity and gene flow in ice-dependent species, with potentially negative consequences for their long-term viability. Here, we tested for the population-genetic impacts of reduced sea ice cover on the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sampled across two decades (1995-2016) from the Svalbard Archipelago, Norway, an area that is affected by rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic Barents Sea. We analysed genetic variation at 22 microsatellite loci for 626 polar bears from four sampling areas within the archipelago. Our results revealed a 3-10% loss of genetic diversity across the study period, accompanied by a near 200% increase in genetic differentiation across regions. These effects may best be explained by a decrease in gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation owing to the loss of sea ice coverage, resulting in increased inbreeding of local polar bears within the focal sampling areas in the Svalbard Archipelago. This study illustrates the importance of genetic monitoring for developing adaptive management strategies for polar bears and other ice-dependent species.

Extreme winter cold-induced osmoregulatory, metabolic, and physiological responses in European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) acclimatized at different salinities

Despite climate-change challenges, for most aquaculture species, physiological responses to different salinities during ambient extreme cold events remain unknown. Here, European seabass acclimatized at 3, 6, 12, and 30 PSU were subjected to 20 days of an ambient extreme winter cold event (8 °C), and monitored for growth and physiological performance. Growth performance decreased significantly (p < 0.05) in fish exposed at 3 and 30 PSU compared to 6 and 12 PSU. During cold stress exposure, serum Na+, Cl-, and K+ concentrations were significantly (p < 0.05) increased in fish exposed at 30 PSU. Serum cortisol, glucose, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were increased significantly (p < 0.05) in fish exposed at 3 and 30 PSU. In contrast, opposite trends were observed for serum protein, lactate, and triglycerides content during cold exposure. Transaminase activities [glutamic-pyruvate transaminase (GPT), glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (GOT), lactic acid dehydrogenase (LDH), gamma-glutamyl-transaminase (γGGT)] were significantly higher in fish exposed at 3 and 30 PSU on days 10 and 20. The abundance of heat shock protein 70 (HSP70), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance (CFTR) were significantly (p < 0.05) increased in fish exposed at 3 and 30 PSU during cold shock exposure. In contrast, insulin-like growth factor 1 (Igf1) expression was significantly lower in fish exposed at 3 and 30 PSU. Whereas, on day 20, Na+/K+ ATPase α1 and Na+/K+/Cl- cotransporter-1 (NKCC1) were significantly upregulated in fish exposed at 30 PSU, followed by 12, 6, and 3 PSU. Results demonstrated that ambient extreme winter cold events induce metabolic and physiological stress responses and provide a conceivable mechanism by which growth and physiological fitness are limited at cold thermal events. However, during ambient extreme cold (8 °C) exposure, European seabass exhibited better physiological fitness at 12 and 6 PSU water, providing possible insight into future aquaculture management options.

Assessment of SITE for CO2 and Energy Fluxes Simulations in a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (Caatinga Ecosystem)

Although seasonally dry tropical forests are considered invaluable to a greater understanding of global carbon fluxes, they remain as one of the ecosystems with the fewest observations. In this context, ecological and ecosystem models can be used as alternative methods to answer questions related to the interactions between the biosphere and the atmosphere in dry forests. The objective of this study was to calibrate the simple tropical ecosystem model (SITE) and evaluate its performance in characterizing the annual and seasonal behavior of the energy and carbon fluxes in a preserved fragment of the Caatinga biome. The SITE model exhibited reasonable applicability to simulate variations in CO2 and energy fluxes (r > 0.7). Results showed that the calibrated set of vegetation parameters adequately simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). The SITE model was also able to accurately retrieve the time at which daily GPP and NEE peaked. The model was able to simulate the partition of the available energy into sensible and latent heat fluxes and soil heat flux when the calibrated parameters were used. Therefore, changes in the dynamics of dry forests should be taken into consideration in the modeling of ecosystem carbon balances.

Preference Provides a Plethora of Problems (Don't Panic)

This review was solicited as an autobiography. The "problems" in my title have two meanings. First, they were professional difficulties caused by my decision to study oviposition preferences of butterflies that were not susceptible to traditional preference-testing designs. Until I provided video, my claim that the butterflies duplicate natural post-alighting host-assessment behavior when placed on hosts by hand was not credible, and the preference-testing technique that I had developed elicited skepticism, anger, and derision. The second meaning of "problems" is scientific. Insect preference comes with complex dimensionality that interacts with host acceptability. Part Two of this review describes how my group's work in this area has revealed unexpected axes of variation in plant-insect interactions-axes capable of frustrating attempts to derive unequivocal conclusions from apparently sensible experimental designs. The possibility that these complexities are lurking should be kept in mind as preference and performance experiments are devised.

Biological responses to extreme weather events are detectable but difficult to formally attribute to anthropogenic climate change

As the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods have increased over recent decades, more extreme biological responses are being reported, and there is widespread interest in attributing such responses to anthropogenic climate change. However, the formal detection and attribution of biological responses to climate change is associated with many challenges. We illustrate these challenges with data from the Elbe River floodplain, Germany. Using community turnover and stability indices, we show that responses in plant, carabid and mollusc communities are detectable following extreme events. Community composition and species dominance changed following the extreme flood and summer heatwave of 2002/2003 (all taxa); the 2006 flood and heatwave (molluscs); and after the recurring floods and heatwave of 2010 and the 2013 flood (plants). Nevertheless, our ability to attribute these responses to anthropogenic climate change is limited by high natural variability in climate and biological data; lack of long-term data and replication, and the effects of multiple events. Without better understanding of the mechanisms behind change and the interactions, feedbacks and potentially lagged responses, multiple-driver attribution is unlikely. We discuss whether formal detection and/or attribution is necessary and suggest ways in which understanding of biological responses to extreme events could progress.

Whither mammalian ecology?

The critical agenda for mammalian ecologists over this century is to obtain a synthetic and predictive understanding of the factors that limit the distribution and abundance of mammals on Earth. During the last 100 years, a start has been made on this agenda, but only a start. Most mammal species have been described, but there still are tropical areas of undisclosed species richness. We have been measuring changes in distribution and abundance of many common mammals during the last century, and this monitoring agenda has become more critical as climate change has accelerated and habitat destruction has increased with human population growth. There are a small number of factors that can limit the distribution and abundance of mammals: weather, predation, food supplies, disease, and social behavior. Weather limits distribution and abundance mostly in an indirect manner by affecting food supplies, disease, and predation in the short term and habitat composition and structure in the longer term. A good starting point for all studies of mammals is to define them within a well-structured trophic web, and then quantify the major linkages within that web. We still are far from having data on enough model systems to develop a complete theory and understanding of how food webs are structured and constrained as climate shifts and humans disturb habitats. We have many of the bits and pieces for some of our major ecosystems but a poor understanding of the links and the resilience of our mammalian communities to changes in trophic webs driven by climate change and human disturbances.

Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground

Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975-2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.

Integrating dynamic environmental predictors and species occurrences: Toward true dynamic species distribution models

While biological distributions are not static and change/evolve through space and time, nonstationarity of climatic and land-use conditions is frequently neglected in species distribution models. Even recent techniques accounting for spatiotemporal variation of species occurrence basically consider the environmental predictors as static; specifically, in most studies using species distribution models, predictor values are averaged over a 50- or 30-year time period. This could lead to a strong bias due to monthly/annual variation between the climatic conditions in which species' locations were recorded and those used to develop species distribution models or even a complete mismatch if locations have been recorded more recently. Moreover, the impact of land-use change has only recently begun to be fully explored in species distribution models, but again without considering year-specific values. Excluding dynamic climate and land-use predictors could provide misleading estimation of species distribution. In recent years, however, open-access spatially explicit databases that provide high-resolution monthly and annual variation in climate (for the period 1901-2016) and land-use (for the period 1992-2015) conditions at a global scale have become available. Combining species locations collected in a given month of a given year with the relative climatic and land-use predictors derived from these datasets would thus lead to the development of true dynamic species distribution models (D-SDMs), improving predictive accuracy and avoiding mismatch between species locations and predictor variables. Thus, we strongly encourage modelers to develop D-SDMs using month- and year-specific climatic data as well as year-specific land-use data that match the period in which species data were collected.

The ecology of suburban juvenile European hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in Denmark

European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) populations are widespread across diverse habitats but are declining in Western Europe. Drastic declines have been described in the UK, with the most severe declines occurring in rural areas. Hedgehogs are widely distributed in Denmark, but their status remains unknown.Fieldwork on hedgehogs has tended to focus on rural areas, leaving their ecology in suburban habitats largely unexplored, with clear implications for conservation initiatives. Here, we study the ecology of 35 juvenile hedgehogs using radio tracking during their first year of life in the suburbs of western Copenhagen.We use radio-tracking data to estimate (a) home range sizes in autumn and spring/summer, (b) survival during their first year of life, (c) the body mass changes before, during, and after hibernation, and (d) the hibernation behavior of the juvenile hedgehogs.We show that males and females have small home ranges compared with previous studies. The 95% MCP home range sizes in autumn were 1.33 ha (95% CI = 0.88-2.00) for males and 1.40 ha (95% CI = 0.84-2.32) for females; for spring/summer they were 6.54 ha (95% CI = 3.76-11.38) for males and 1.51 ha (95% CI = 0.63-3.63) for females. The juvenile survival probabilities during the study period from September 2014 to July 2015 were .56 for females and .79 for males. All healthy individuals gained body mass during the autumn and survived hibernation with little body mass loss thus demonstrating that the juveniles in the study were capable of gaining sufficient weight in the wild to survive their first hibernation.The climate is changing, but there is a lack of knowledge on how this affects mammal ecology. The exceptionally mild autumn of 2014 caused the juvenile hedgehogs to delay hibernation for up to a month compared with previous studies in Denmark.

Recent climate-driven ecological change across a continent as perceived through local ecological knowledge

Documenting effects of climate change is an important step towards designing mitigation and adaptation responses. Impacts of climate change on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems have been well-documented in the Northern Hemisphere, but long-term data to detect change in the Southern Hemisphere are limited, and some types of change are generally difficult to measure. Here we present a novel approach using local ecological knowledge to facilitate a continent-scale view of climate change impacts on terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems that people have perceived in Australia. We sought local knowledge using a national web-based survey, targeting respondents with close links to the environment (e.g. farmers, ecologists), and using a custom-built mapping tool to ask respondents to describe and attribute recent changes they had observed within an area they knew well. Results drawn from 326 respondents showed that people are already perceiving simple and complex climate change impacts on hundreds of species and ecosystems across Australia, significantly extending the detail previously reported for the continent. While most perceived trends and attributions remain unsubstantiated, >35 reported anecdotes concurred with examples in the literature, and >20 were reported more than once. More generally, anecdotes were compatible with expectations from global climate change impact frameworks, including examples across the spectrum from organisms (e.g. increased mortality in >75 species), populations (e.g. changes in recruitment or abundance in >100 species, phenological change in >50 species), and species (e.g. >80 species newly arriving or disappearing), to communities and landscapes (e.g. >50 examples of altered ecological interactions). The overarching pattern indicated by the anecdotes suggests that people are more often noticing climate change losers (typically native species) than winners in their local areas, but with observations of potential ‘adaptation in action’ via compositional and phenological change and through arrivals and range shifts (particularly for native birds and exotic plants). A high proportion of climate change-related anecdotes also involved cumulative or interactive effects of land use. We conclude that targeted elicitation of local ecological knowledge about climate change impacts can provide a valuable complement to data-derived knowledge, substantially extending the volume of explicit examples and offering a foundation for further investigation.

Warming Amplifies the Frequency of Harmful Algal Blooms with Eutrophication in Chinese Coastal Waters

Widespread coastal eutrophication is known to increase the prevalence of harmful algal blooms (HABs). Increased HABs have also been linked to climate change, with ocean warming predicted to lead to increased prevalence and earlier timing of HABs. Testing the predictions of warming to HABs is difficult due to the lack of long-term observations across spatial scales. Here, we use a 45 year (1970-2015) record of the occurrence and duration of HABs along Chinese coast to show that the HAB frequency has increased at a rate of 40 ± 4% decade^-1, with earlier timing by 5.50 ± 1.78 days decade^-1. The increasing frequency of blooms varied with latitude and is significantly correlated with warming at an average rate of 0.17 ± 0.03 °C decade^-1, with the positive relationship being strongest in more eutrophic provinces. HAB frequency increased with elevated dissolved inorganic nutrient concentration, but this increase was amplified further with warming. Warming and eutrophication showed additive roles in triggering HABs. Swift action to mitigate eutrophication is essential to avoid a sharp increase in the HABs in coastal waters with further warming.

Assessing species boundaries in the open sea: an integrative taxonomic approach to the pteropod genus Diacavolinia

To track changes in pelagic biodiversity in response to climate change, it is essential to accurately define species boundaries. Shelled pteropods are a group of holoplanktonic gastropods that have been proposed as bio-indicators because of their vulnerability to ocean acidification. A particularly suitable, yet challenging group for integrative taxonomy is the pteropod genus Diacavolinia, which has a circumglobal distribution and is the most species-rich pteropod genus, with 24 described species. We assessed species boundaries in this genus, with inferences based on geometric morphometric analyses of shell-shape variation, genetic (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I, 28S rDNA sequences) and geographic data. We found support for a total of 13 species worldwide, with observations of 706 museum and 263 freshly collected specimens across a global collection of material, including holo‐ and paratype specimens for 14 species. In the Atlantic Ocean, two species are well supported, in contrast to the eight currently described, and in the Indo‐Pacific we found a maximum of 11 species, partially merging 13 of the described species. Distributions of these revised species are congruent with well-known biogeographic provinces. Combining varied datasets in an integrative framework may be suitable for many diverse taxa and is an important first step to predicting species-specific responses to global change.

How Do Tilia Cordata Greenspire Trees Cope with Drought Stress Regarding Their Biomass Allocation and Ecosystem Services?

In the context of climate change, drought is likely to become more frequent and more severe in urban areas. Urban trees are considered to play an important role in fixing carbon, improving air quality, reducing noise and providing other ecosystem services. However, data on the response of urban trees to climate change, particularly to drought, as well as the relationship between their below- and above-ground processes in this context, are still limited, which prevents a comprehensive understanding of the role of urban trees in ameliorating some of the adverse effects of climate change and their ability to cope with it. To investigate whole-plant responses to water shortages, we studied the growth of Tilia cordata Greenspire, a commonly planted urban tree, including development of its roots and stem diameter, leaf parameters and the harvested biomass. Our results showed that this cultivar was susceptible to drought and had reduced biomass in all three compartments: branch (30.7%), stem (16.7%) and coarse roots (45.2%). The decrease in the root:shoot ratio under drought suggested that more carbon was invested in the above-ground biomass. The development of fine roots and the loss of coarse root biomass showed that T. cordata Greenspire prioritised the growth of fine roots within the root system. The CityTree model’s simulation showed that the ability of this cultivar to provide ecosystem services, including cooling and CO2 fixation, was severely reduced. For use in harsh and dry urban environments, we recommend that urban managers take into account the capacity of trees to adapt to drought stress and provide sufficient rooting space, especially vertically, to help trees cope with drought.

Protecting rare and endangered species under climate change on the Qinghai Plateau, China

Climate change-induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche-based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.

A century of climate and land-use change cause species turnover without loss of beta diversity in California's Central Valley

Climate and land-use changes are thought to be the greatest threats to biodiversity, but few studies have directly measured their simultaneous impacts on species distributions. We used a unique historic resource-early 20th-century bird surveys conducted by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues-paired with contemporary resurveys a century later to examine changes in bird distributions in California's Central Valley, one of the most intensively modified agricultural zones in the world and a region of heterogeneous climate change. We analyzed species- and community-level occupancy using multispecies occupancy models that explicitly accounted for imperfect detection probability, and developed a novel, simulation-based method to compare the relative influences of climate and land-use covariates on site-level species richness and beta diversity (measured by Jaccard similarity). Surprisingly, we show that mean occupancy, species richness and between-site similarity have remained remarkably stable over the past century. Stability in community-level metrics masked substantial changes in species composition; occupancy declines of some species were equally matched by increases in others, predominantly species with generalist or human-associated habitat preferences. Bird occupancy, richness and diversity within each era were driven most strongly by water availability (precipitation and percent water cover), indicating that both climate and land-use are important drivers of species distributions. Water availability had much stronger effects than temperature, urbanization and agricultural cover, which are typically thought to drive biodiversity decline.

Drone Monitoring of Breeding Waterbird Populations: The Case of the Glossy Ibis

Waterbird communities are potential indicators of ecological changes in threatened wetland ecosystems and consequently, a potential object of ecological monitoring programs. Waterbirds often breed in largely inaccessible colonies in flooded habitats, so unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys provide a robust method for estimating their breeding population size. Counts of breeding pairs might be carried out by manual and automated detection routines. In this study we surveyed the main breeding colony of Glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus) at the Doñana National Park. We obtained a high resolution image, in which the number and location of nests were determined manually through visual interpretation by an expert. We also suggest a standardized methodology for nest counts that would be repeatable across time for long-term monitoring censuses, through a supervised classification based primarily on the spectral properties of the image and a subsequent automatic size and form based count. Although manual and automatic count were largely similar in the total number of nests, accuracy between both methodologies was only 46.37%, with higher variability in shallow areas free of emergent vegetation than in areas dominated by tall macrophytes. We discuss the potential challenges for automatic counts in highly complex images.

Parallel behavioral and morphological divergence in fence lizards on two college campuses

The spread of urban development has dramatically altered natural habitats, modifying community relationships, abiotic factors, and structural features. Animal populations living in these areas must perish, emigrate, or find ways to adjust to a suite of new selective pressures. Those that successfully inhabit the urban environment may make behavioral, physiological, and/or morphological adjustments that represent either evolutionary change and/or phenotypic plasticity. We tested for effects of urbanization on antipredator behavior and associated morphology across an urban-wild gradient in the western fence lizard (Sceloporus occidentalis) in two California counties, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo. We compared college campuses in both counties with adjacent rural habitats, conducting field trials that allowed us to characterize antipredator behavior in response to the acute stress of capture. We found notable divergence between campus and rural behavior, with campus lizards more frequently exhibiting diminished escape behavior, including tonic immobility, and lower sprint speeds. Furthermore, campus females had significantly shorter limbs, and while this did not explain variation in sprint speed, those with shorter limbs were more likely to show tonic immobility. We hypothesize that these parallel behavioral and morphological changes on both campuses reflect adjustment to a novel environment involving changes in predation and human presence.

Comment on "Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection"

Siepielski et al (Reports, 3 March 2017, p. 959) claim that "precipitation drives global variation in natural selection." This conclusion is based on a meta-analysis of the relationship between climate variables and natural selection measured in wild populations of invertebrates, plants, and vertebrates. Three aspects of this analysis cause concern: (i) lack of within-year climate variables, (ii) low and variable estimates of covariance relationships across taxa, and (iii) a lack of mechanistic explanations for the patterns observed; association is not causation.

Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions

More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Macroscale patterns in body size of intertidal crustaceans provide insights on climate change effects

Predicting responses of coastal ecosystems to altered sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with global climate change, requires knowledge of demographic responses of individual species. Body size is an excellent metric because it scales strongly with growth and fecundity for many ectotherms. These attributes can underpin demographic as well as community and ecosystem level processes, providing valuable insights for responses of vulnerable coastal ecosystems to changing climate. We investigated contemporary macroscale patterns in body size among widely distributed crustaceans that comprise the majority of intertidal abundance and biomass of sandy beach ecosystems of the eastern Pacific coasts of Chile and California, USA. We focused on ecologically important species representing different tidal zones, trophic guilds and developmental modes, including a high-shore macroalga-consuming talitrid amphipod (Orchestoidea tuberculata), two mid-shore scavenging cirolanid isopods (Excirolana braziliensis and E. hirsuticauda), and a low-shore suspension-feeding hippid crab (Emerita analoga) with an amphitropical distribution. Significant latitudinal patterns in body sizes were observed for all species in Chile (21° - 42°S), with similar but steeper patterns in Emerita analoga, in California (32°- 41°N). Sea surface temperature was a strong predictor of body size (-4% to -35% °C^-1) in all species. Beach characteristics were subsidiary predictors of body size. Alterations in ocean temperatures of even a few degrees associated with global climate change are likely to affect body sizes of important intertidal ectotherms, with consequences for population demography, life history, community structure, trophic interactions, food-webs, and indirect effects such as ecosystem function. The consistency of results for body size and temperature across species with different life histories, feeding modes, ecological roles, and microhabitats inhabiting a single widespread coastal ecosystem, and for one species, across hemispheres in this space-for-time substitution, suggests predictions of ecosystem responses to thermal effects of climate change may potentially be generalised, with important implications for coastal conservation.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize.

The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Most ecological processes now show responses to anthropogenic climate change. In terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, species are changing genetically, physiologically, morphologically, and phenologically and are shifting their distributions, which affects food webs and results in new interactions. Disruptions scale from the gene to the ecosystem and have documented consequences for people, including unpredictable fisheries and crop yields, loss of genetic diversity in wild crop varieties, and increasing impacts of pests and diseases. In addition to the more easily observed changes, such as shifts in flowering phenology, we argue that many hidden dynamics, such as genetic changes, are also taking place. Understanding shifts in ecological processes can guide human adaptation strategies. In addition to reducing greenhouse gases, climate action and policy must therefore focus equally on strategies that safeguard biodiversity and ecosystems.

Cross-realm assessment of climate change impacts on species' abundance trends

Climate change, land-use change, pollution and exploitation are among the main drivers of species' population trends; however, their relative importance is much debated. We used a unique collection of over 1,000 local population time series in 22 communities across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms within central Europe to compare the impacts of long-term temperature change and other environmental drivers from 1980 onwards. To disentangle different drivers, we related species' population trends to species- and driver-specific attributes, such as temperature and habitat preference or pollution tolerance. We found a consistent impact of temperature change on the local abundances of terrestrial species. Populations of warm-dwelling species increased more than those of cold-dwelling species. In contrast, impacts of temperature change on aquatic species' abundances were variable. Effects of temperature preference were more consistent in terrestrial communities than effects of habitat preference, suggesting that the impacts of temperature change have become widespread for recent changes in abundance within many terrestrial communities of central Europe.

Long-term changes in temperate stream invertebrate communities reveal a synchronous trophic amplification at the turn of the millennium

The positive effects of water quality improvement on stream biodiversity in the temperate regions are expected to be at risk with the projected climatic changes. However, the processes and mechanisms behind the predicted threats remain uncertain. From long-term series of benthic invertebrate samples from temperate rivers and streams in France, we analyzed diversity and composition shifts over time in relation to geographic elements and human stressors. Mechanisms for community changes were investigated with a trait-based analysis for the entire dataset and for a selected caddisfly community module. We observed a 42% increase in the taxonomic richness of stream invertebrate communities over the last 25years. A gradual trend induced by water quality improvement was distinguished from a more abrupt climate change-induced shift in communities around the year 2000. Trophic amplification - the intensification of trophic interactions and pathways through the food web - was identified as the mechanism behind the strong community shift. Four lines of evidence for this trophic amplification are highlighted: (i) higher dissolved oxygen concentrations indicated a shift in primary production, (ii) the trait-based analysis of entire communities showed a bottom-up food web amplification, (iii) the trait-based analysis of the community module evidenced feeding strategy shifts and increased food web interactions, and (iv) the abundance analysis of the community module showed a productivity increase. These results lend credit to persistent investments in water quality for improving stream biodiversity, and contrary to expectation, climate change impacts seem so far to have reinforced these positive effects.

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

Beyond Correlation in the Detection of Climate Change Impacts: Testing a Mechanistic Hypothesis for Climatic Influence on Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Productivity

Detecting the biological impacts of climate change is a current focus of ecological research and has important applications in conservation and resource management. Owing to a lack of suitable control systems, measuring correlations between time series of biological attributes and hypothesized environmental covariates is a common method for detecting such impacts. These correlative approaches are particularly common in studies of exploited fish species because rich biological time-series data are often available. However, the utility of species-environment relationships for identifying or predicting biological responses to climate change has been questioned because strong correlations often deteriorate as new data are collected. Specifically stating and critically evaluating the mechanistic relationship(s) linking an environmental driver to a biological response may help to address this problem. Using nearly 60 years of data on sockeye salmon from the Kvichak River, Alaska we tested a mechanistic hypothesis linking water temperatures experienced during freshwater rearing to population productivity by modeling a series of intermediate, deterministic relationships and evaluating temporal trends in biological and environmental time-series. We found that warming waters during freshwater rearing have profoundly altered patterns of growth and life history in this population complex yet there has been no significant correlation between water temperature and metrics of productivity commonly used in fisheries management. These findings demonstrate that pairing correlative approaches with careful consideration of the mechanistic links between populations and their environments can help to both avoid spurious correlations and identify biologically important, but not statistically significant relationships, and ultimately producing more robust conclusions about the biological impacts of climate change.

Enhancement of accelerated carbonation of alkaline waste residues by ultrasound

The continuous growth of anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere and the disposal of hazardous wastes into landfills present serious economic and environmental issues. Reaction of CO2 with alkaline residues or cementitius materials, known as accelerated carbonation, occurs rapidly under ambient temperature and pressure and is a proven and effective process of sequestering the gas. Moreover, further improvement of the reaction efficiency would increase the amount of CO2 that could be permanently sequestered into solid products. This paper examines the potential of enhancing the accelerated carbonation of air pollution control residues, cement bypass dust and ladle slag by applying ultrasound at various water-to-solid (w/s) ratios. Experimental results showed that application of ultrasound increased the CO2 uptake by up to four times at high w/s ratios, whereas the reactivity at low water content showed little change compared with controls. Upon sonication, the particle size of the waste residues decreased and the amount of calcite precipitates increased. Finally, the sonicated particles exhibited a rounded morphology when observed by scanning electron microscopy.

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes.