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Zhao H, Cheng H, Wang N, Bai L, Chen X, Liu X, Qiao B. Identifying climate refugia for wild yaks (Bos mutus) on the Tibetan Plateau. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 366:121655. [PMID: 38981271 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2024] [Revised: 06/20/2024] [Accepted: 06/29/2024] [Indexed: 07/11/2024]
Abstract
Climate change is threatening fragile alpine ecosystems and their resident ungulates, particularly the wild yak (Bos mutus) that inhabits alpine areas between the tree line and glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau. Although wild yaks tend to shift habitats in response to changes in climatic factors, the precise impacts of climate change on their habitat distribution and climate refugia remain unclear. Based on over 1000 occurrence records, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was applied to simulate habitat ranges in the last glacial maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene, current stage, and three greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2070. Three habitat patches were identified as climate refugia for wild yaks that have persisted from the LGM to the present and are projected to persist until 2070. These stable areas account for approximately 64% of the current wild yak habitat extent and are sufficiently large to support viable populations. The long-term persistence of these climate refugia areas is primarily attributed to the unique alpine environmental features of the Tibetan Plateau, where relatively stable arid or semi-arid climates are maintained, and a wide range of forage resource supplies are available. However, habitat loss by 2070 caused by insufficient protection is predicted to lead to severe fragmentation in the southeastern and northwestern Kunlun, Hengduan, central-western Qilian, and southern Tanggula-northern Himalaya Mountains. Habitat disturbance has also been caused by increasing anthropogenic effects in the southern Tanggula and northern Himalaya Mountains. We suggest that sufficient protection, transboundary cooperation, and community involvement are required to improve wild yak conservation efforts. Our combined modeling method (MaxEnt-Zonation-Linkage Mapper-FRAGSTAT) can be utilized to identify priority areas and linkages between habitat patches while assessing the conservation efficiency of protected areas and analyzing the coupled relationship between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the habitat distribution of endangered species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hang Zhao
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Hongyi Cheng
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Nai'ang Wang
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Liqiong Bai
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Xiaowen Chen
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Xiao Liu
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
| | - Bin Qiao
- College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Center for Glacier and Desert Research, Scientific Observing Station for Desert and Glacier, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
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2
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Monge O, Maggini I, Schulze CH, Dullinger S, Fusani L. Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e9985. [PMID: 37082319 PMCID: PMC10111238 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 02/16/2023] [Accepted: 03/23/2023] [Indexed: 04/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Tropical species are considered to be more threatened by climate change than those of other world regions. This increased sensitivity to warming is thought to stem from the assumptions of low physiological capacity to withstand temperature fluctuations and already living near their limits of heat tolerance under current climatic conditions. For birds, despite thorough documentation of community-level rearrangements, such as biotic attrition and elevational shifts, there is no consistent evidence of direct physiological sensitivity to warming. In this review, we provide an integrative outlook into the physiological response of tropical birds to thermal variation and their capacity to cope with warming. In short, evidence from the literature suggests that the assumed physiological sensitivity to warming attributed to tropical biotas does not seem to be a fundamental characteristic of tropical birds. Tropical birds do possess the physiological capacities to deal with fluctuating temperatures, including high-elevation species, and are prepared to withstand elevated levels of heat, even those living in hot and arid environments. However, there are still many unaddressed points that hinder a more complete understanding of the response of tropical birds to warming, such as cooling capacities when exposed to combined gradients of heat and humidity, the response of montane species to heat, and thermoregulation under increased levels of microclimatic stress in disturbed ecosystems. Further research into how populations and species from different ecological contexts handle warming will increase our understanding of current and future community rearrangements in tropical birds.
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Affiliation(s)
- Otto Monge
- Vienna Doctoral School of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of ViennaDjerassiplatz 11030ViennaAustria
| | - Ivan Maggini
- Konrad‐Lorenz Institute of EthologyUniversity of Veterinary MedicineSavoyenstrasse 1a1160ViennaAustria
| | - Christian H. Schulze
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaRennweg 141030ViennaAustria
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity ResearchUniversity of ViennaRennweg 141030ViennaAustria
| | - Leonida Fusani
- Konrad‐Lorenz Institute of EthologyUniversity of Veterinary MedicineSavoyenstrasse 1a1160ViennaAustria
- Department of Behavioural and Cognitive BiologyUniversity of ViennaAlthanstrasse 141090ViennaAustria
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3
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Mi C, Ma L, Yang M, Li X, Meiri S, Roll U, Oskyrko O, Pincheira-Donoso D, Harvey LP, Jablonski D, Safaei-Mahroo B, Ghaffari H, Smid J, Jarvie S, Kimani RM, Masroor R, Kazemi SM, Nneji LM, Fokoua AMT, Tasse Taboue GC, Bauer A, Nogueira C, Meirte D, Chapple DG, Das I, Grismer L, Avila LJ, Ribeiro Júnior MA, Tallowin OJS, Torres-Carvajal O, Wagner P, Ron SR, Wang Y, Itescu Y, Nagy ZT, Wilcove DS, Liu X, Du W. Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change. Nat Commun 2023; 14:1389. [PMID: 36914628 PMCID: PMC10011414 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36987-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species' distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chunrong Mi
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Liang Ma
- School of Ecology, Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China
| | - Mengyuan Yang
- Zhejiiang University, Hangzhou, China.,Westlake University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Xinhai Li
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shai Meiri
- School of Zoology and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
| | - Uri Roll
- Mitrani Department of Desert Ecology, The Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben- Gurion, Israel
| | - Oleksandra Oskyrko
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.,Educational and Scientific Center, Institute of Biology and Medicine, Taras Shevchenko national University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | | | - Lilly P Harvey
- School of Science and Technology, Nottingham Trent University, Clifton Campus, Nottingham, UK
| | - Daniel Jablonski
- Department of Zoology, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovakia
| | - Barbod Safaei-Mahroo
- Pars Herpetologists Institute, Corner of third Jahad alley, Arash Str., Jalal-e Ale-Ahmad Boulevard, Tehran, Iran
| | - Hanyeh Ghaffari
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Jiri Smid
- Department of Zoology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.,Department of Zoology, National Museum in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Scott Jarvie
- Otago Regional Council, Dunedin, 9016, Aotearoa, New Zealand
| | | | - Rafaqat Masroor
- Zoological Sciences Division, Pakistan Museum of Natural History, Garden Avenue, Shakarparian, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | | | - Lotanna Micah Nneji
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | | | - Geraud C Tasse Taboue
- Multipurpose Research Station, Institute of Agricultural Research for development, Bangangté, Cameroon
| | - Aaron Bauer
- Department of Biology and Center for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Stewardship, Villanova University, Villanova, PA, USA
| | - Cristiano Nogueira
- Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Danny Meirte
- Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren, Belgium
| | - David G Chapple
- School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia
| | - Indraneil Das
- Institute of Biodiversity and Environmental Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak, Sarawak, Malaysia
| | - Lee Grismer
- Department of Biology, La Sierra University, Riverside, CA, USA
| | - Luciano Javier Avila
- Grupo Herpetología Patagónica (GHP-LASIBIBE), Instituto Patagónico para el Estudio de los Ecosistemas Continentales (IPEEC-CONICET), Puerto Madryn, Argentina
| | | | - Oliver J S Tallowin
- UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK
| | - Omar Torres-Carvajal
- Museo de Zoología, Escuela de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
| | | | - Santiago R Ron
- Museo de Zoología, Escuela de Biología, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Pontificia, Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador
| | - Yuezhao Wang
- Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, China
| | - Yuval Itescu
- Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Müggelseedamm, Berlin, Germany.,Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | | | - David S Wilcove
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.,Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, USA
| | - Xuan Liu
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Weiguo Du
- Key Laboratory of Animal Ecology and Conservation Biology, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
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4
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MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Wintering Distribution of Eurasian Spoonbill ( Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) under Climate Change in China. Animals (Basel) 2023; 13:ani13050856. [PMID: 36899712 PMCID: PMC10000049 DOI: 10.3390/ani13050856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2022] [Revised: 02/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 03/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Global climate change has become a trend and is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity patterns and species distributions. Many wild animals adapt to the changing living environment caused by climate change by changing their habitats. Birds are highly sensitive to climate change. Understanding the suitable wintering habitat of the Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) and its response to future climatic change is essential for its protection. In China, it was listed as national grade II key protected wild animal in the adjusted State List of key protected wild animals in 2021, in Near Threatened status. Few studies on the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill have been carried out in China. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat under the current period and modeled the distribution dynamics of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill in response to climate change under different periods by using the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that the current suitable wintering habitats for the Eurasian Spoonbill are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Distance from the water, precipitation of the driest quarter, altitude, and mean temperature of the driest quarter contributed the most to the distribution model for the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill, with a cumulative contribution of 85%. Future modeling showed that the suitable distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill extends to the north as a whole, and the suitable area shows an increasing trend. Our simulation results are helpful in understanding the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill under different periods in China and support species conservation.
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Variations in Avian Species and Functional Diversity in Different Habitat Types in a Vulnerable Savannah Ecosystem in Ghana. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2022. [DOI: 10.1155/2022/4923892] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
Most research on avian functional diversity in the tropics is focused on forest and agroecosystems, leaving a gap in knowledge about the effects of habitat types on functional diversity in savannah landscapes. Savanna ecosystems are fragile and are under threat of anthropogenic destruction, particularly in developing Sub-Saharan Africa and could be eliminated in the face of the ever-increasing human population exacerbated by the changing climate. This study investigated the influence of the three major habitat types (grassland, riparian forest, woodland) on bird species and functional diversity in the Mole National Park (MNP) in Ghana. We used the line transect method to survey birds along 39 transects, each 1 km in length, and collected data on environmental variables along the same transects. Data from these surveys was used to estimate species and functional diversity indicators. We found significant variations in species and functional diversity measures between the three habitat types in the MNP. These variations were significantly influenced by species abundance and environmental covariates. Diversity measures were particularly higher in the riparian forest habitats compared to the woodland and grassland, with the latter being the least diverse habitat both functionally and species wise. The results of this study suggest that the avifauna assemblages in MNP are largely influenced by the riparian forest and are important for ecosystem function and stability. We recommend management efforts to intensify the protection of such vital habitats of the Mole National Park from illegal human activities, especially the rising removal and export of rosewoods (Dalbergia nigra) around the park. Further research on the avian community composition and structure in the MNP is recommended.
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6
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Coldrey KM, Turpie JK, Midgley G, Scheiter S, Hannah L, Roehrdanz PR, Foden WB. Assessing protected area vulnerability to climate change in a case study of South African national parks. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2022; 36:e13941. [PMID: 35648687 PMCID: PMC9796953 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2021] [Revised: 02/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/04/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is challenging the ability of protected areas (PAs) to meet their objectives. To improve PA planning, we developed a framework for assessing PA vulnerability to climate change based on consideration of potential climate change impacts on species and their habitats and resource use. Furthermore, the capacity of PAs to adapt to these climate threats was determined through assessment of PA management effectiveness, adjacent land use, and financial resilience. Users reach a PA-specific vulnerability score and rank based on scoring of these categories. We applied the framework to South Africa's 19 national parks. Because the 19 parks are managed as a national network, we explored how resources might be best allocated to address climate change. Each park's importance to the network's biodiversity conservation and revenue generation was estimated and used to weight overall vulnerability scores and ranks. Park vulnerability profiles showed distinct combinations of potential impacts of climate change and adaptive capacities; the former had a greater influence on vulnerability. Mapungubwe National Park emerged as the most vulnerable to climate change, despite its relatively high adaptive capacity, largely owing to large projected changes in species and resource use. Table Mountain National Park scored the lowest in overall vulnerability. Climate change vulnerability rankings differed markedly once importance weightings were applied; Kruger National Park was the most vulnerable under both importance scenarios. Climate change vulnerability assessment is fundamental to effective adaptation planning. Our PA assessment tool is the only tool that quantifies PA vulnerability to climate change in a comparative index. It may be used in data-rich and data-poor contexts to prioritize resource allocation across PA networks and can be applied from local to global scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin M. Coldrey
- Environmental Policy Research Unit (EPRU)University of Cape TownRondeboschSouth Africa
| | - Jane K. Turpie
- Environmental Policy Research Unit (EPRU)University of Cape TownRondeboschSouth Africa
| | - Guy Midgley
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and ZoologyUniversity of StellenboschMatielandSouth Africa
| | - Simon Scheiter
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreFrankfurtGermany
| | - Lee Hannah
- The Moore Center for ScienceConservation InternationalArlingtonVirginiaUSA
| | | | - Wendy B. Foden
- Global Change Biology Group, Department of Botany and ZoologyUniversity of StellenboschMatielandSouth Africa
- Cape Research CentreSouth African National ParksTokaiSouth Africa
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7
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Alagador D, Cerdeira JO. Operations research applicability in spatial conservation planning. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2022; 315:115172. [PMID: 35525048 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.115172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 04/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
A large fraction of the current environmental crisis derives from the large rates of human-driven biodiversity loss. Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are needed to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. This study provides an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. We discuss the progress of OR models and methods in spatial conservation planning and how those models may be optimized through sophisticated algorithms and computational tools. Moreover, we anticipate possible panoramas of modern spatial conservation studies supported by OR and we explore possible avenues for the design of optimized interdisciplinary collaborative platforms in the era of Big Data, through consortia where distinct players with different motivations and services meet. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation, planners navigate around multiple socioecological/environmental equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence under complex environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diogo Alagador
- Biodiversity Chair, Institute for Advanced Studies and Research, Universidade de Évora, Rua Joaquim Henrique da Fonseca, Casa Cordovil, 2°, 7000-890, Évora, Portugal; MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development, CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Évora, Portugal.
| | - Jorge Orestes Cerdeira
- Department of Mathematics, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Quinta da Torre, 282 -516, Costa da Caparica, Portugal; Centre for Mathematics and Applications, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Quinta da Torre, 282 -516, Costa da Caparica, Portugal.
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8
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A sustainable conservation strategy of wildlife in urban ecosystems: Case of Gallinula chloropus in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101571] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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9
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Sergio F, Blas J, Tanferna A, Hiraldo F. Protected areas enter a new era of uncertain challenges: extinction of a non‐exigent falcon in Doñana National Park. Anim Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12752] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- F. Sergio
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
| | - J. Blas
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
| | - A. Tanferna
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
| | - F. Hiraldo
- Department of Conservation Biology Estación Biológica de Doñana – CSIC Seville Spain
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10
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Voskamp A, Butchart SHM, Baker DJ, Wilsey CB, Willis SG. Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change. Front Ecol Evol 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2021.625432] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.
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11
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Probabilistic graphical models for species richness prediction: Are current protected areas effective to face climate emergency? Glob Ecol Conserv 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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12
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Malakoutikhah S, Fakheran S, Hemami M, Tarkesh M, Senn J. Assessing future distribution, suitability of corridors and efficiency of protected areas to conserve vulnerable ungulates under climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Shima Malakoutikhah
- Department of Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan Iran
| | - Sima Fakheran
- Department of Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan Iran
| | - Mahmoud‐Reza Hemami
- Department of Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan Iran
| | - Mostafa Tarkesh
- Department of Natural Resources Isfahan University of Technology Isfahan Iran
| | - Josef Senn
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL Birmensdorf Switzerland
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13
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Mendoza-Ponce A, Corona-Núñez RO, Galicia L, Kraxner F. Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico. AMBIO 2019; 48:336-349. [PMID: 30128861 PMCID: PMC6411666 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-018-1085-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2018] [Revised: 07/11/2018] [Accepted: 08/03/2018] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
This study identifies the hotspots of land use cover change (LUCC) under two socioeconomic and climate change scenarios [business as usual (BAU) and a pessimistic scenario] at the national level for Mexico for three-time periods. Modelling suggests that by 2050 grassland and tropical evergreen forest will be the most endangered ecosystems, having lost 20-33% (BAU) or 43-46% (pessimistic scenario) of their extent in comparison to 1993. Agricultural expansion would be the major driver of LUCC, increasing from 24.4% of the country in 1993 to 30% (BAU) or 34% (pessimistic) in 2050. The most influential variables were distance from roads and human settlements, slope, aridity, and evapotranspiration. The hotspots of LUCC were influenced by environmental constraints and socioeconomic activities more than by climate change. These findings could be used to build proposals to reduce deforestation, including multiple feedbacks among urbanization, industrialization and food consumption.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alma Mendoza-Ponce
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßpl. 1, Laxenburg, 2361 Vienna, Austria
| | - Rogelio O. Corona-Núñez
- Procesos y Sistemas de Información en Geomática, S.A. de C.V., Calle 5 Viveros de Petén #18, Col. Viveros del Valle, 54060 Tlalnepantla, Mexico
| | - Leopoldo Galicia
- Departamento de Geografía Física, Instituto de Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Investigación Científica, Circuito Exterior s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Coyoacán, 04510 Mexico, Ciudad de México Mexico
| | - Florian Kraxner
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßpl. 1, Laxenburg, 2361 Vienna, Austria
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14
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Affiliation(s)
- Res Altwegg
- Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical SciencesUniversity of Cape Town Rondebosch South Africa
- African Climate and Development InitiativeUniversity of Cape Town Rondebosch South Africa
| | - James D. Nichols
- Patuxent Wildlife Research CenterUS Geological Survey Laurel Maryland
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15
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White HJ, Montgomery IW, Lennon JJ. Contribution of local rarity and climatic suitability to local extinction and colonization varies with species traits. J Anim Ecol 2018; 87:1560-1572. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12881] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2018] [Accepted: 07/04/2018] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Hannah J. White
- School of Biological Sciences; Queen's University Belfast; Belfast UK
- School of Biology and Environmental Science; Earth Institute; University College Dublin; Dublin Ireland
| | - Ian W. Montgomery
- School of Biological Sciences; Queen's University Belfast; Belfast UK
- Institute of Global Food Security (IGFS); Queen's University Belfast; Belfast UK
| | - Jack J. Lennon
- School of Biological Sciences; Queen's University Belfast; Belfast UK
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White HJ, Montgomery WI, Storchová L, Hořák D, Lennon JJ. Does functional homogenization accompany taxonomic homogenization of British birds and how do biotic factors and climate affect these processes? Ecol Evol 2018; 8:7365-7377. [PMID: 30151156 PMCID: PMC6106174 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4267] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/30/2017] [Revised: 04/30/2018] [Accepted: 05/18/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Environmental change has reshuffled communities often causing taxonomic homogenization rather than differentiation. Some studies suggest that this increasing similarity of species composition between communities is accompanied by an increase in similarity of trait composition-functional homogenization-although different methodologies have failed to come to any consistent conclusions. Functional homogenization could have a large effect on ecosystem functioning and stability. Here, we use the general definition of homogenization as "reduced spatial turnover over time" to compare changes in Simpson's beta diversity (taxonomic turnover) with changes in Rao's quadratic entropy beta diversity (functional turnover) in British breeding birds at three spatial scales. Using biotic and climatic variables, we identify which factors may predispose a site to homogenization. The change in turnover measures between two time periods, 20 years apart, was calculated. A null model approach was taken to identify occurrences of functional homogenization and differentiation independent of changes in taxonomic turnover. We used conditional autoregressive models fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to determine how environmental drivers and factors relating to species distributions affect changes in spatial turnover of species and functional diversity. The measurement of functional homogenization affects the chance of rejection of the null models, with many sites showing taxonomic homogenization unaccompanied by functional homogenization, although occurrence varies with spatial scale. At the smallest scale, while temperature-related variables drive changes in taxonomic turnover, changes in functional turnover are associated with variation in growing degree days; however, changes in functional turnover become more difficult to predict at larger spatial scales. Our results highlight the multifactorial processes underlying taxonomic and functional homogenization and that redundancy in species traits may allow ecosystem functioning to be maintained in some areas despite changes in species composition.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah J. White
- School of Biological SciencesQueen's University BelfastBelfastUK
- School of Biology and Environmental ScienceEarth InstituteUniversity College DublinDublinIreland
| | - W. Ian Montgomery
- School of Biological SciencesQueen's University BelfastBelfastUK
- Institute of Global Food Security (IGFS)Queen's University BelfastBelfastUK
| | | | - David Hořák
- Department of EcologyCharles UniversityPragueCzech Republic
| | - Jack J. Lennon
- School of Biological SciencesQueen's University BelfastBelfastUK
- Institute of Global Food Security (IGFS)Queen's University BelfastBelfastUK
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17
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Saura S, Bertzky B, Bastin L, Battistella L, Mandrici A, Dubois G. Protected area connectivity: Shortfalls in global targets and country-level priorities. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION 2018; 219:53-67. [PMID: 29503460 PMCID: PMC5825384 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.12.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2017] [Revised: 10/27/2017] [Accepted: 12/14/2017] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Connectivity of protected areas (PAs) is crucial for meeting their conservation goals. We provide the first global evaluation of countries' progress towards Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity that is to have at least 17% of the land covered by well-connected PA systems by 2020. We quantify how well the terrestrial PA systems of countries are designed to promote connectivity, using the Protected Connected (ProtConn) indicator. We refine ProtConn to focus on the part of PA connectivity that is in the power of a country to influence, i.e. not penalizing countries for PA isolation due to the sea and to foreign lands. We found that globally only 7.5% of the area of the countries is covered by protected connected lands, which is about half of the global PA coverage of 14.7%, and that only 30% of the countries currently meet the Aichi Target 11 connectivity element. These findings suggest the need for considerable efforts to improve PA connectivity globally. We further identify the main priorities for improving or sustaining PA connectivity in each country: general increase of PA coverage, targeted designation of PAs in strategic locations for connectivity, ensuring permeability of the unprotected landscapes between PAs, coordinated management of neighbouring PAs within the country, and/or transnational coordination with PAs in other countries. Our assessment provides a key contribution to evaluate progress towards global PA connectivity targets and to highlight important strengths and weaknesses of the design of PA systems for connectivity in the world's countries and regions.
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Wilson AM, Brauning DW, Carey C, Mulvihill RS. Spatial models to account for variation in observer effort in bird atlases. Ecol Evol 2017; 7:6582-6594. [PMID: 28861259 PMCID: PMC5574789 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.3201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2016] [Revised: 05/25/2017] [Accepted: 05/30/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
To assess the importance of variation in observer effort between and within bird atlas projects and demonstrate the use of relatively simple conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for analyzing grid‐based atlas data with varying effort. Pennsylvania and West Virginia, United States of America. We used varying proportions of randomly selected training data to assess whether variations in observer effort can be accounted for using CAR models and whether such models would still be useful for atlases with incomplete data. We then evaluated whether the application of these models influenced our assessment of distribution change between two atlas projects separated by twenty years (Pennsylvania), and tested our modeling methodology on a state bird atlas with incomplete coverage (West Virginia). Conditional Autoregressive models which included observer effort and landscape covariates were able to make robust predictions of species distributions in cases of sparse data coverage. Further, we found that CAR models without landscape covariates performed favorably. These models also account for variation in observer effort between atlas projects and can have a profound effect on the overall assessment of distribution change. Accounting for variation in observer effort in atlas projects is critically important. CAR models provide a useful modeling framework for accounting for variation in observer effort in bird atlas data because they are relatively simple to apply, and quick to run.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew M Wilson
- Environmental Studies Department Gettysburg College Gettysburg PA USA
| | - Daniel W Brauning
- Wildlife Management Bureau Pennsylvania Game Commission Harrisburg PA USA
| | - Caitlin Carey
- Conservation Management Institute Virginia Tech Blacksburg VA USA
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Oedekoven CS, Elston DA, Harrison PJ, Brewer MJ, Buckland ST, Johnston A, Foster S, Pearce‐Higgins JW. Attributing changes in the distribution of species abundance to weather variables using the example of British breeding birds. Methods Ecol Evol 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Cornelia S. Oedekoven
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St. Andrews The Observatory, Fife St Andrews UK
| | - David A. Elston
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland Craigiebuckler Aberdeen UK
| | - Philip J. Harrison
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St. Andrews The Observatory, Fife St Andrews UK
| | - Mark J. Brewer
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland Craigiebuckler Aberdeen UK
| | - Stephen T. Buckland
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling University of St. Andrews The Observatory, Fife St Andrews UK
| | - Alison Johnston
- British Trust for Ornithology The Nunnery Thetford Norfolk UK
| | - Simon Foster
- Scottish Natural Heritage Great Glen House Leachkin Road Inverness UK
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20
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Aguirre-Gutiérrez J, van Treuren R, Hoekstra R, van Hintum TJ. Crop wild relatives range shifts and conservation in Europe under climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2017. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12573] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/16/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez
- Biodiversity Dynamics; Naturalis Biodiversity Center; Leiden The Netherlands
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED); University of Amsterdam; Amsterdam The Netherlands
| | - Rob van Treuren
- Centre for Genetic Resources, The Netherlands; Wageningen University and Research; Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Roel Hoekstra
- Centre for Genetic Resources, The Netherlands; Wageningen University and Research; Wageningen The Netherlands
| | - Theo J.L. van Hintum
- Centre for Genetic Resources, The Netherlands; Wageningen University and Research; Wageningen The Netherlands
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21
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Saura S, Bastin L, Battistella L, Mandrici A, Dubois G. Protected areas in the world's ecoregions: How well connected are they? ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 2017; 76:144-158. [PMID: 28469529 PMCID: PMC5362157 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.12.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2016] [Revised: 12/21/2016] [Accepted: 12/27/2016] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Protected areas (PAs) are the main instrument for biodiversity conservation, which has triggered the development of numerous indicators and assessments on their coverage, performance and efficiency. The connectivity of the PA networks at a global scale has however been much less explored; previous studies have either focused on particular regions of the world or have only considered some types of PAs. Here we present, and globally assess, ProtConn, an indicator of PA connectivity that (i) quantifies the percentage of a study region covered by protected connected lands, (ii) can be partitioned in several components depicting different categories of land (unprotected, protected or transboundary) through which movement between protected locations may occur, (iii) is easy to communicate, to compare with PA coverage and to use in the assessment of global targets for PA systems. We apply ProtConn to evaluate the connectivity of the PA networks in all terrestrial ecoregions of the world as of June 2016, considering a range of median dispersal distances (1-100 km) encompassing the dispersal abilities of the large majority of terrestrial vertebrates. We found that 9.3% of the world is covered by protected connected lands (average for all the world's ecoregions) for a reference dispersal distance of 10 km, increasing up to 11.7% for the largest dispersal distance considered of 100 km. These percentages are considerably smaller than the global PA coverage of 14.7%, indicating that the spatial arrangement of PAs is only partially successful in ensuring connectivity of protected lands. The connectivity of PAs largely differed across ecoregions. Only about a third of the world's ecoregions currently meet the Aichi Target of having 17% of the terrestrial realm covered by well-connected systems of PAs. Finally, our findings suggest that PAs with less strict management objectives (allowing the sustainable use of resources) may play a fundamental role in upholding the connectivity of the PA systems. Our analyses and indicator make it possible to identify where on the globe additional efforts are most needed in expanding or reinforcing the connectivity of PA systems, and can be also used to assess whether newly designated sites provide effective connectivity gains in the PA system by acting as corridors or stepping stones between other PAs. The results of the ProtConn indicator are available, together with a suite of other global PA indicators, in the Digital Observatory for Protected Areas of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
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Gonçalves GSR, Cerqueira PV, Brasil LS, Santos MPD. The role of climate and environmental variables in structuring bird assemblages in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs). PLoS One 2017; 12:e0176066. [PMID: 28441412 PMCID: PMC5404791 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176066] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2016] [Accepted: 02/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the processes that influence species diversity is still a challenge in ecological studies. However, there are two main theories to discuss this topic, the niche theory and the neutral theory. Our objective was to understand the importance of environmental and spatial processes in structuring bird communities within the hydrological seasons in dry forest areas in northeastern Brazil. The study was conducted in two National Parks, the Serra da Capivara and Serra das Confusões National Parks, where 36 areas were sampled in different seasons (dry, dry/rainy transition, rainy, rainy/dry transition), in 2012 and 2013. We found with our results that bird species richness is higher in the rainy season and lower during the dry season, indicating a strong influence of seasonality, a pattern also found for environmental heterogeneity. Richness was explained by local environmental factors, while species composition was explained by environmental and spatial factors. The environmental factors were more important in explaining variations in composition. Climate change predictions have currently pointed out frequent drought events and a rise in global temperature by 2050, which would lead to changes in species behavior and to increasing desertification in some regions, including the Caatinga. In addition, the high deforestation rates and the low level of representativeness of the Caatinga in the conservation units negatively affects bird communities. This scenario has demonstrated how climatic factors affect individuals, and, therefore, should be the starting point for conservation initiatives to be developed in xeric environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gabriela Silva Ribeiro Gonçalves
- Curso de Pós-Graduação de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Pará / Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Terra Firme, Belém, Pará, Brazil
| | - Pablo Vieira Cerqueira
- Curso de Pós-Graduação de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Pará / Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Terra Firme, Belém, Pará, Brazil
| | - Leandro Schlemmer Brasil
- Curso de Pós-Graduação de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Pará / Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Terra Firme, Belém, Pará, Brazil
| | - Marcos Pérsio Dantas Santos
- Universidade Federal do Pará, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Laboratório de Ecologia e Zoologia de Vertebrados, Belém, Pará, Brazil
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23
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Miller MW, Leech DI, Pearce-Higgins JW, Robinson RA. Multi-state, multi-stage modeling of nest-success suggests interaction between weather and land-use. Ecology 2017; 98:175-186. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2016] [Revised: 09/01/2016] [Accepted: 09/12/2016] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Mark W. Miller
- British Trust for Ornithology, BTO; The Nunnery Thetford Norfolk IP24 2PU UK
| | - David I. Leech
- British Trust for Ornithology, BTO; The Nunnery Thetford Norfolk IP24 2PU UK
| | | | - Robert A. Robinson
- British Trust for Ornithology, BTO; The Nunnery Thetford Norfolk IP24 2PU UK
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24
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25
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Basham EW, González del Pliego P, Acosta-Galvis AR, Woodcock P, Medina Uribe CA, Haugaasen T, Gilroy JJ, Edwards DP. Quantifying carbon and amphibian co-benefits from secondary forest regeneration in the Tropical Andes. Anim Conserv 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- E. W. Basham
- Department of Geography; University of Sheffield; Sheffield South Yorkshire UK
| | - P. González del Pliego
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield South Yorkshire UK
| | - A. R. Acosta-Galvis
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Bogota Colombia
| | - P. Woodcock
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Ås Norway
- School of Biology; University of Leeds; Leeds UK
| | - C. A. Medina Uribe
- Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt; Bogota Colombia
| | - T. Haugaasen
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Ås Norway
| | - J. J. Gilroy
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management; Norwegian University of Life Sciences; Ås Norway
- School of Environmental Science; University of East Anglia; Norwich UK
| | - D. P. Edwards
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield South Yorkshire UK
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26
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Critchlow R, Plumptre AJ, Driciru M, Rwetsiba A, Stokes EJ, Tumwesigye C, Wanyama F, Beale CM. Spatiotemporal trends of illegal activities from ranger-collected data in a Ugandan national park. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2015; 29:1458-1470. [PMID: 25996571 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2014] [Accepted: 03/01/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Within protected areas, biodiversity loss is often a consequence of illegal resource use. Understanding the patterns and extent of illegal activities is therefore essential for effective law enforcement and prevention of biodiversity declines. We used extensive data, commonly collected by ranger patrols in many protected areas, and Bayesian hierarchical models to identify drivers, trends, and distribution of multiple illegal activities within the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area (QECA), Uganda. Encroachment (e.g., by pastoralists with cattle) and poaching of noncommercial animals (e.g., snaring bushmeat) were the most prevalent illegal activities within the QECA. Illegal activities occurred in different areas of the QECA. Poaching of noncommercial animals was most widely distributed within the national park. Overall, ecological covariates, although significant, were not useful predictors for occurrence of illegal activities. Instead, the location of illegal activities in previous years was more important. There were significant increases in encroachment and noncommercial plant harvesting (nontimber products) during the study period (1999-2012). We also found significant spatiotemporal variation in the occurrence of all activities. Our results show the need to explicitly model ranger patrol effort to reduce biases from existing uncorrected or capture per unit effort analyses. Prioritization of ranger patrol strategies is needed to target illegal activities; these strategies are determined by protected area managers, and therefore changes at a site-level can be implemented quickly. These strategies should also be informed by the location of past occurrences of illegal activity: the most useful predictor of future events. However, because spatial and temporal changes in illegal activities occurred, regular patrols throughout the protected area, even in areas of low occurrence, are also required.
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Affiliation(s)
- R Critchlow
- Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, Y010 5DD, United Kingdom
| | - A J Plumptre
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Plot 802 Kiwafu Rd, Kansanga, P.O. Box 7487, Kampala, Uganda
| | - M Driciru
- Uganda Wildlife Authority, P.O. Box 3530, Kampala, Uganda
| | - A Rwetsiba
- Uganda Wildlife Authority, P.O. Box 3530, Kampala, Uganda
| | - E J Stokes
- Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation, 2300 Southern Boulevard, Bronx, NY 10460, U.S.A
| | - C Tumwesigye
- Uganda Wildlife Authority, P.O. Box 3530, Kampala, Uganda
| | - F Wanyama
- Uganda Wildlife Authority, P.O. Box 3530, Kampala, Uganda
| | - C M Beale
- Department of Biology, University of York, Wentworth Way, Y010 5DD, United Kingdom
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Struebig MJ, Fischer M, Gaveau DLA, Meijaard E, Wich SA, Gonner C, Sykes R, Wilting A, Kramer-Schadt S. Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2015; 21:2891-2904. [PMID: 25559092 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2014] [Accepted: 11/13/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm - a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260,000 km(2) of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18-24% reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15-30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in north-eastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000-42,000 km(2) depending on thresholds used, with 900-17,000 km(2) outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Struebig
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, UK
| | - Manuela Fischer
- Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW), Alfred-Kowalke-Straße 17, 10315, Berlin, Germany
- Department of Forestry and Ecosystem Science, University of Melbourne, Creswick, Vic., 3366, Australia
| | - David L A Gaveau
- Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor, 16000, Indonesia
| | - Erik Meijaard
- Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor, 16000, Indonesia
- Borneo Futures, People and Nature Consulting International, Jakarta, Indonesia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
| | - Serge A Wich
- Research Centre in Evolutionary Anthropology and Palaeoecology, School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK
- Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - Catherine Gonner
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, UK
| | - Rachel Sykes
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology (DICE), School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT2 7NR, UK
| | - Andreas Wilting
- Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW), Alfred-Kowalke-Straße 17, 10315, Berlin, Germany
| | - Stephanie Kramer-Schadt
- Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW), Alfred-Kowalke-Straße 17, 10315, Berlin, Germany
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Meller L, Thuiller W, Pironon S, Barbet-Massin M, Hof A, Cabeza M. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. BIOENERGY 2015; 7:741-751. [PMID: 26681982 PMCID: PMC4678595 DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2013] [Accepted: 12/27/2013] [Indexed: 05/30/2023]
Abstract
Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Meller
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, P.O. Box 65, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland; tel. +35844-5377193; ; Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
| | - Wilfried Thuiller
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France
| | - Samuel Pironon
- Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université J. Fourier, Grenoble I, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France ; Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC), 50080 Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Morgane Barbet-Massin
- Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, UMR 7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Centre de Recherches sur la Biologie des Populations d'Oiseaux, CP 51, 55 Rue Buffon, 75005, Paris, France ; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06520-8106, USA
| | - Andries Hof
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
| | - Mar Cabeza
- Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, P.O. Box 65, 00014 University of Helsinki, Finland; tel. +35844-5377193;
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29
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Thomas CD, Gillingham PK. The performance of protected areas for biodiversity under climate change. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12510] [Citation(s) in RCA: 85] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Chris D. Thomas
- Department of Biology; University of York; Wentworth Way York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Phillipa K. Gillingham
- Faculty of Science and Technology; Christchurch House; Bournemouth University; Talbot Campus Fern Barrow Poole BH12 5BB UK
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30
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Gillingham PK, Bradbury RB, Roy DB, Anderson BJ, Baxter JM, Bourn NAD, Crick HQP, Findon RA, Fox R, Franco A, Hill JK, Hodgson JA, Holt AR, Morecroft MD, O'Hanlon NJ, Oliver TH, Pearce-Higgins JW, Procter DA, Thomas JA, Walker KJ, Walmsley CA, Wilson RJ, Thomas CD. The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges. Biol J Linn Soc Lond 2015. [DOI: 10.1111/bij.12506] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Phillipa K. Gillingham
- Department of Life and Environmental Sciences; Faculty of Science and Technology; Bournemouth University; Talbot Campus Fern Barrow Poole BH12 5BB UK
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Richard B. Bradbury
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science; RSPB; The Lodge Sandy Beds SG19 2DL UK
| | - David B. Roy
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Maclean Building Benson Lane Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | - Barbara J. Anderson
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
- Landcare Research; Private Bag 1930 Dunedin 9054 New Zealand
| | - John M. Baxter
- Policy & Advice Directorate; Scottish Natural Heritage; Silvan House; 231 Corstorphine Road Edinburgh EH12 7AT UK
| | | | | | | | - Richard Fox
- Butterfly Conservation; Manor Yard East Lulworth Dorset BH20 5QP UK
| | - Aldina Franco
- School of Environmental Sciences; University of East Anglia; Norwich Research Park Norwich NR4 7T UK
| | - Jane K. Hill
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Jenny A. Hodgson
- Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour; University of Liverpool; Biosciences Building Crown Street Liverpool L69 7ZB UK
| | - Alison R. Holt
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences; University of Sheffield; Sheffield S10 2TN UK
| | - Mike D. Morecroft
- Natural England; Cromwell House; 15 Andover Road Winchester SO23 7BT UK
| | - Nina J. O'Hanlon
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
- The Scottish Centre for Ecology and the Natural Environment; University of Glasgow; Rowardennan Drymen Glasgow G63 0AW UK
| | - Tom H. Oliver
- NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology; Maclean Building Benson Lane Crowmarsh Gifford Wallingford Oxfordshire OX10 8BB UK
| | | | - Deborah A. Procter
- Joint Nature Conservation Committee; Monkstone House; City Road Peterborough PE1 1JY UK
| | | | - Kevin J. Walker
- Botanical Society of the British Isles (BSBI); c/o 97 Dragon Parade Harrogate North Yorkshire HG1 5DG UK
| | - Clive A. Walmsley
- Natural Resources Wales; Maes y Ffynnon; Penrhosgarnedd Bangor LL57 2DW UK
| | - Robert J. Wilson
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences; University of Exeter; Hatherly Building Exeter EX4 4PS UK
| | - Chris D. Thomas
- Department of Biology; Wentworth Way; University of York; York YO10 5DD UK
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Struebig MJ, Wilting A, Gaveau DLA, Meijaard E, Smith RJ, Fischer M, Metcalfe K, Kramer-Schadt S. Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-cover change. Curr Biol 2015; 25:372-378. [PMID: 25619764 DOI: 10.1016/j.cub.2014.11.067] [Citation(s) in RCA: 65] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2014] [Revised: 10/24/2014] [Accepted: 11/19/2014] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Struebig
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK; School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK.
| | - Andreas Wilting
- Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany.
| | - David L A Gaveau
- Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia
| | - Erik Meijaard
- Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia; Borneo Futures, People and Nature Consulting International, Country Woods House 306, Jl. WR Supratman, Pondok Ranji-Rengas, Ciputat, Jakarta 15412, Indonesia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | - Robert J Smith
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK
| | - Manuela Fischer
- Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | - Kristian Metcalfe
- Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury CT2 7NR, UK; Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9FE, UK
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Byrom AE, Nkwabi AJK, Metzger K, Mduma SAR, Forrester GJ, Ruscoe WA, Reed DN, Bukombe J, Mchetto J, Sinclair ARE. Anthropogenic stressors influence small mammal communities in tropical East African savanna at multiple spatial scales. WILDLIFE RESEARCH 2015. [DOI: 10.1071/wr14223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/21/2022]
Abstract
Context Protection of natural ecosystems undoubtedly safeguards ecological communities, with positive benefits for ecosystem processes and function. However, ecosystems are under threat from anthropogenic stressors that reduce the resilience both of component species and the system as a whole. Aims To determine how anthropogenic stressors (land use and climate change) could impact the diversity and resilience of a small mammal community in the greater Serengeti ecosystem, an East African savanna comprising Serengeti National Park (SNP) and adjacent agro-ecosystems, at local (SNP) and Africa-wide geographic scales. Methods We recorded small mammal species in 10 habitats in the greater Serengeti ecosystem, including the agro-ecosystem, over 48 years (1962–2010). We calculated richness and diversity for each habitat type, and used an index of similarity to quantify differences in the community among habitats. Species accumulation curves were also generated for each habitat type. Key results We recorded 40 species of small mammals in the greater Serengeti ecosystem. At the local scale, restricted habitat types in SNP (each <1% of the total area) made a disproportionately large contribution to diversity. Agro-ecosystems had lower richness and were less likely to contain specialist species. At regional and Africa-wide scales, local endemics were less likely to be recorded in the agro-ecosystem (57% species loss) compared with those with regional (33% loss) or Africa-wide (31%) geographic distributions. Conclusions At the local scale, the variety of habitats in SNP contributed to overall diversity. However, the ability to maintain this diversity in the adjacent agro-ecosystem was compromised for localised endemics compared with species with Africa-wide ranges. Land use intensification adjacent to SNP and projected changes in rainfall patterns for East Africa under global climate scenarios may compromise the future resilience of the small mammal community in this tropical savanna ecosystem. Implications The loss of rare or specialised species from protected areas and human-modified ecosystems could be mitigated by: (1) increasing habitat complexity and maintaining specialist habitats in the agro-ecosystem; and (2) creating buffers at the boundary of protected natural ecosystems that accommodate regime shifts in response to climatic change. These measures would increase the resilience of this coupled human–natural savanna ecosystem.
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Koschová M, Kuda F, Hořák D, Reif J. Species’ ecological traits correlate with predicted climatically-induced shifts of European breeding ranges in birds. COMMUNITY ECOL 2014. [DOI: 10.1556/comec.15.2014.2.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
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Illán JG, Thomas CD, Jones JA, Wong WK, Shirley SM, Betts MG. Precipitation and winter temperature predict long-term range-scale abundance changes in Western North American birds. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:3351-3364. [PMID: 24863299 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2014] [Accepted: 04/07/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long-term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32-year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence-absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970-1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998-2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman's ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman's ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America.
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Affiliation(s)
- Javier Gutiérrez Illán
- Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA; Department of Biology (Area 18), University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK
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Tingley MW, Darling ES, Wilcove DS. Fine- and coarse-filter conservation strategies in a time of climate change. Ann N Y Acad Sci 2014; 1322:92-109. [DOI: 10.1111/nyas.12484] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Emily S. Darling
- Biology Department; University of North Carolina; Chapel Hill North Carolina
| | - David S. Wilcove
- Woodrow Wilson School; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Princeton University; Princeton New Jersey
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Virkkala R, Pöyry J, Heikkinen RK, Lehikoinen A, Valkama J. Protected areas alleviate climate change effects on northern bird species of conservation concern. Ecol Evol 2014; 4:2991-3003. [PMID: 25247057 PMCID: PMC4161173 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/22/2014] [Accepted: 06/14/2014] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, posing increasing pressures on species to adapt in situ or shift their ranges. A protected area network is one of the main instruments to alleviate the negative impacts of climate change. Importantly, protected area networks might be expected to enhance the resilience of regional populations of species of conservation concern, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant amount of protected habitat compared to unprotected landscapes. Based on national bird atlases compiled in 1974–1989 and 2006–2010, this study examines the recent range shifts in 90 forest, mire, marshland, and Arctic mountain heath bird species of conservation concern in Finland, as well as the changes in their species richness in protected versus unprotected areas. The trends emerging from the atlas data comparisons were also related to the earlier study dealing with predictions of distributional changes for these species for the time slice of 2051–2080, developed using bioclimatic envelope models (BEMs). Our results suggest that the observed changes in bird distributions are in the same direction as the BEM-based predictions, resulting in a decrease in species richness of mire and Arctic mountain heath species and an increase in marshland species. The patterns of changes in species richness between the two time slices are in general parallel in protected and unprotected areas. However, importantly, protected areas maintained a higher level of species richness than unprotected areas. This finding provides support for the significance and resilience provision of protected area networks in preserving species of conservation concern under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raimo Virkkala
- Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute Mechelininkatu 34 a, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Juha Pöyry
- Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute Mechelininkatu 34 a, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Risto K Heikkinen
- Natural Environment Centre, Finnish Environment Institute Mechelininkatu 34 a, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Aleksi Lehikoinen
- Finnish Museum of Natural History P.O. Box 17, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland
| | - Jari Valkama
- Finnish Museum of Natural History P.O. Box 17, FI-00014, University of Helsinki, Finland
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Kuntner M, Năpăruş M, Li D, Coddington JA. Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change. PLoS One 2014; 9:e98907. [PMID: 24892737 PMCID: PMC4044009 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2014] [Accepted: 05/08/2014] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change. METHODOLOGY We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes. CONCLUSIONS Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matjaž Kuntner
- Institute of Biology, Scientific Research Centre, Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Centre for Behavioural Ecology and Evolution, College of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D. C., United States of America
| | - Magdalena Năpăruş
- Centre of Landscape–Territory–Information Systems - CeLTIS, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
- Tular Cave Laboratory, Kranj, Slovenia
| | - Daiqin Li
- Centre for Behavioural Ecology and Evolution, College of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
- Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Jonathan A. Coddington
- National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D. C., United States of America
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Beale CM, Brewer MJ, Lennon JJ. A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions. Methods Ecol Evol 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.12174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Colin M. Beale
- Department of Biology; University of York; Wentworth Way Heslington York YO10 5DD UK
| | - Mark J. Brewer
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland; Craigiebuckler Aberdeen AB15 8QH UK
| | - Jack J. Lennon
- Queen's University Belfast; School of Biological Sciences; 97 Lisburn Road Belfast BT9 7BL UK
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Harris JBC, Dwi Putra D, Gregory SD, Brook BW, Prawiradilaga DM, Sodhi NS, Wei D, Fordham DA. Rapid deforestation threatens mid-elevational endemic birds but climate change is most important at higher elevations. DIVERS DISTRIB 2014. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- J. Berton C. Harris
- Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences; University of Adelaide; Adelaide SA 5005 Australia
- Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; Princeton University; Princeton NJ 08542 USA
| | - Dadang Dwi Putra
- Celebes Bird Club; Jl. Thamrin 63A Palu Central Sulawesi Indonesia
| | - Stephen D. Gregory
- Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences; University of Adelaide; Adelaide SA 5005 Australia
- Game and Wildlife Conservation Trust; Salmon and Trout Research Centre; Wareham BH20 6BB UK
| | - Barry W. Brook
- Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences; University of Adelaide; Adelaide SA 5005 Australia
| | - Dewi M. Prawiradilaga
- Division of Zoology; Research Centre for Biology-LIPI; Jl. Raya Bogor Km 46 Cibinong-Bogor 16911 Indonesia
| | - Navjot S. Sodhi
- Department of Biological Sciences; National University of Singapore; 14 Science Drive 4 Singapore 117543 Singapore
| | - Dan Wei
- Stawell Secondary College; Patrick St. Stawell Vic. 3380 Australia
| | - Damien A. Fordham
- Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Sciences; University of Adelaide; Adelaide SA 5005 Australia
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Affiliation(s)
- A. Keane
- Silwood Park Campus; Imperial College London; Ascot Berkshire UK
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