Congener diversity, topographic heterogeneity and human-assisted dispersal predict spread rates of alien herpetofauna at a global scale

Forecasting potential invaders to prevent future biological invasions worldwide

The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.

A niche-based theory of island biogeography

The equilibrium theory of island biogeography (ETIB) is a widely applied dynamic theory proposed in the 1960s to explain why islands have coherent differences in species richness. The development of the ETIB was temporarily challenged in the 1970s by the alternative static theory of ecological impoverishment (TEI). The TEI suggests that the number of species on an island is determined by its number of habitats or niches but, with no clear evidence relating species richness to the number of niches however, the TEI has been almost dismissed as a theory in favour of the original ETIB. Here, we show that the number of climatic niches on islands is an important predictor of the species richness of plants, herpetofauna and land birds. We therefore propose a model called the niche-based theory of island biogeography (NTIB), based on the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life (METAL), which successfully integrates the number of niches sensu Hutchinson into ETIB. To account for greater species turnover at the beginning of colonisation, we include higher initial extinction rates. When we test our NTIB for resident land birds in the Krakatau Islands, it reveals a good correspondence with observed species richness, immigration and extinction rates. Provided the environmental regime remains unchanged, we estimate that the current species richness at equilibrium is ~45 species (range between 38.39 and 61.51). Our NTIB provides better prediction because it counts for changes in species richness with latitude, which is not considered in any theory of island biogeography.

Half of global islands have reached critical area thresholds for undergoing rapid increases in biological invasions

Biological invasions are among the threats to global biodiversity and social sustainability, especially on islands. Identifying the threshold of area at which non-native species begin to increase abruptly is crucial for early prevention strategies. The small-island effect (SIE) was proposed to quantify the nonlinear relationship between native species richness and area but has not yet been applied to non-native species and thus to predict the key breakpoints at which established non-native species start to increase rapidly. Based on an extensive global dataset, including 769 species of non-native birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles established on 4277 islands across 54 archipelagos, we detected a high prevalence of SIEs across 66.7% of archipelagos. Approximately 50% of islands have reached the threshold area and thus may be undergoing a rapid increase in biological invasions. SIEs were more likely to occur in those archipelagos with more non-native species introduction events, more established historical non-native species, lower habitat diversity and larger archipelago area range. Our findings may have important implications not only for targeted surveillance of biological invasions on global islands but also for predicting the responses of both non-native and native species to ongoing habitat fragmentation under sustained land-use modification and climate change.

Alien range size, habitat breadth, origin location, and domestication of alien species matter to their impact risks

Invasive alien species are a major driver of biodiversity loss. Currently, the process of biological invasions is experiencing a constant acceleration, foreshadowing a future increase in the threat posed by invasive alien species to global biodiversity. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impact risks of invasive alien species and related factors. Here, we constructed a dataset of negative environmental impact events to evaluate the impact risks of alien species. We collected information on 1071 established alien terrestrial vertebrates and then gathered negative environmental impacts for 108 of those species. Generalized linear mixed-effects model and phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression model were used to examine the characteristic (including life-history traits, characteristics related to distribution, and introduction event characteristics) correlates of species' impact risks at the global scale for 108 established alien terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians). Our results showed that a total of 3158 negative environmental impacts were reported for 108 harmful species across 71 countries worldwide. Factors associated with impact risks varied slightly among taxa, but alien range size, habitat breadth, origin location, and domestication were significantly correlated with impact risks. Our study aims to identify the characteristics of alien species with high-impact risks to facilitate urgent assessment of alien species and to protect the local ecological environment and biodiversity.

Global drivers of the conservation-invasion paradox

The conservation-invasion paradox (CIP) refers to a long-term phenomenon wherein species threatened in their native range can sustain viable populations when introduced to other regions. Understanding the drivers of CIP is helpful for conserving threatened species and managing invasive species, which is unfortunately still lacking. We compiled a global data set of 1071 introduction events, including 960 CIP events (successful establishment of threatened species outside its native range) and 111 non-CIP events (unsuccessful establishment of threatened species outside its native range after introduction), involving 174 terrestrial vertebrates. We then tested the relative importance of various predictors at the location, event, and species levels with generalized linear mixed models and model averaging. Successful CIP events occurred across taxonomic groups and biogeographic realms, especially for the mammal group in the Palearctic and Australia. Locations of successful CIP events had fewer native threat factors, especially less climate warming in invaded regions. The probability of a successful CIP event was highest when species introduction efforts were great and there were more local congeners and fewer natural enemies. These results can inform threatened species ex situ conservation and non-native invasive species mitigation.

Risk of introduction and establishment of alien vertebrate species in transboundary neighboring areas

Cross-border neighboring areas could be particularly vulnerable to biological invasions due to short geographic distances and frequent interactions, although the invasion risk remains unevaluated worldwide. Here, based on global datasets of distributions of established alien vertebrates as well as vectors of introduction and establishment, we show that more than one-third of the world's transboundary neighboring areas are facing high invasion risk of alien vertebrates, especially in Europe, North America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. The most important predictors of high introduction and establishment risk are bilateral trade, habitat disturbance and the richness of established alien vertebrates. Interestingly, we found that border fences may have limited effects in reducing the risk, as only 7.9% of border fences spatially overlap with hotspots of biological invasion even in the Eurasia areas (13.7% overlap) where physical border barriers are mainly located. We therefore recommend the implementation of immediate and proactive prevention and control measures to cope with cross-border invasions in response to continued globalization.

Climate match is key to predict range expansion of the world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates

Understanding the determinants of the range expansion of invasive alien species is crucial for developing effective prevention and control strategies. Nevertheless, we still lack a global picture of the potential factors influencing the invaded range expansion across taxonomic groups, especially for the world's worst invaders with high ecological and economic impacts. Here, by extensively collecting data on 363 distributional ranges of 19 of world's worst invasive terrestrial vertebrates across 135 invaded administrative jurisdictions, we observed remarkable variations in the range expansion across species and taxonomic groups. After controlling for taxonomic and geographic pseudoreplicates, model averaging analyses based on generalized additive mixed-effect models showed that species in invaded regions having climates more similar to those of their native ranges tended to undergo a larger range expansion. In addition, as proxies of propagule pressure and human-assisted transportation, the number of introduction events and the road network density were also important predictors facilitating the range expansion. Further variance partitioning analyses validated the predominant role of climate match in explaining the range expansion. Our study demonstrated that regions with similar climates to their native ranges could still be prioritized to prevent the spread of invasive species under the sustained global change.

Global Warming and Long-Distance Spread of Invasive Discoglossus pictus (Amphibia, Alytidae): Conservation Implications for Protected Amphibians in the Iberian Peninsula

Discoglossus pictus is a North African amphibian that was introduced in southern France early the 20th century and has spread south and north along the Mediterranean coastal plains up to 170 km. In order to disentangle the conservation implications of the spread of D. pictus for sensitive native species, we examined the impact of long-term climate warming on the basis of niche overlap analysis, taking into account abiotic factors. The study area covered the distribution ranges of all genus Discoglossus species in northwestern Africa (659,784 km²), Sicily (27,711 km²), the Iberian Peninsula, and southern France (699,546 km²). Niche overlap was measured from species environmental spaces extracted via PCA, including climate and relief environmental variables. Current and future climatic suitability for each species was assessed in an ensemble-forecasting framework of species distribution models, built using contemporary species data and climate predictors and projected to 2070's climatic conditions. Our results show a strong climatic niche overlap between D. pictus and native and endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. In this context, all species will experience an increase in climatic suitability over the next decades, with the only exception being Pelodytes punctatus, which could be negatively affected by synergies between global warming and cohabitation with D. pictus.

Realized niche shift of an invasive widow spider: drivers and impacts of human activities

Background

Predicting invasiveness requires an understanding of the propensity of a given species to thrive in areas with novel ecological challenges. Evaluation of realized niche shift of an invasive species in its invasive range, detecting the main drivers of the realized niche shift, and predicting the potential distribution of the species can provide important information for the management of populations of invasive species and the conservation of biodiversity. The Australian redback spider, Latrodectus hasselti, is a widow spider that is native to Australia and established in Japan, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia. We used ecological niche models and ordinal comparisons in an integrative method to compare the realized niches of native and invasive populations of this spider species. We also assessed the impact of several climatic predictor variables and human activity on this niche shift. We hypothesized that human impact is important for successful establishment of this anthropophilic species, and that climatic predictor variables may determine suitable habitat and thus predict invasive ranges.

Results

Our models showed that L. hasselti distributions are positively influenced by human impact in both of the native and invasive ranges. Maximum temperature was the most important climatic variable in predictions of the distribution of native populations, while precipitation seasonality was the most important in predictions of invasive populations. The realized niche of L. hasselti in its invasive range differed from that in its native range, indicating possible realized niche shift.

Conclusions

We infer that a preference for human-disturbed environments may underlie invasion and establishment in this spider species, as anthropogenic habitat modifications could provide shelters from unsuitable climatic conditions and extreme climatic stresses to the spiders. Because Australia and the countries in which the species is invasive have differing climates, differences in the availability of certain climatic conditions could have played a role in the realized niche shift of L. hasselti.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12983-022-00470-z.

Complex origins indicate a potential bridgehead introduction of an emerging amphibian invader (Eleutherodactylus planirostris) in China

Identifying the origins of established alien species is important to prevent new introductions in the future. The greenhouse frog (Eleutherodactylus planirostris), native to Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Cayman Islands, has been widely introduced to the Caribbean, North and Central America, Oceania and Asia. This invasive alien amphibian was recently reported in Shenzhen, China, but the potential introduction sources remain poorly understood. Based on phylogenetic analysis using mitochondrial 16S, COI and CYTB sequences, we detected a complex introduction origin of this species, which may be from Hong Kong, China, the Philippines, Panama and Florida, USA, all pointing to a bridgehead introduction. In addition, the nursery trade between the four countries or regions and mainland China from 2011 to 2020 was also significantly higher than other areas with less likelihood of introductions, which supported the molecular results. Our study provides the first genetic evidence of the potential sources of this emerging amphibian invader in mainland China, which may help develop alien species control strategies in the face of growing trade through globalization.

Invasion patterns and niche comparison of the butterfly Cacyreus marshalli among native and non-native range

Alien species introduction is a global phenomenon involving different invasion patterns and is characterized by niche conservatism or shift. We describe the spatial distribution of Cacyreus marshalli Butler, [1898] (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae) in its native (southern Africa) and invaded (Europe) ranges. C. marshalli is the only alien butterfly in Europe, introduced by the trade of ornamental Pelargonium plants, and might threaten native lycaenids because of the chance of its naturalization on indigenous Geranium spp. In Europe, C. marshalli is widespread in the Mediterranean basin, but absent in northern countries. We investigate invasion patterns and their temporal dynamics in Italy, the most extensively invaded country, identifying three phases and different rates of spread resulting from multiple introductions and human-mediated movements. We also characterize and compare the native and invasive ecological niches of C. marshalli with a multivariate approach based on bioclimatic, ecological and human demographic variables. The little overlap between the native and invaded niches (12.6%) indicates a shift in the realized niche of C. marshalli. While the expansion potential of C. marshalli in Europe remains constrained by the distribution of suitable host plants, our niche comparison analysis suggests the species has already invaded new ecological and climatic spaces. This includes colder areas than would be suggested by its native distribution in Africa.

The global significance of biodiversity science in China: an overview

Biodiversity science in China has seen rapid growth over recent decades, ranging from baseline biodiversity studies to understanding the processes behind evolution across dynamic regions such as the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We review research, including species catalogues; biodiversity monitoring; the origins, distributions, maintenance and threats to biodiversity; biodiversity-related ecosystem function and services; and species and ecosystems' responses to global change. Next, we identify priority topics and offer suggestions and priorities for future biodiversity research in China. These priorities include (i) the ecology and biogeography of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountains, and that of subtropical and tropical forests across China; (ii) marine and inland aquatic biodiversity; and (iii) effective conservation and management to identify and maintain synergies between biodiversity and socio-economic development to fulfil China's vision for becoming an ecological civilization. In addition, we propose three future strategies: (i) translate advanced biodiversity science into practice for biodiversity conservation; (ii) strengthen capacity building and application of advanced technologies, including high-throughput sequencing, genomics and remote sensing; and (iii) strengthen and expand international collaborations. Based on the recent rapid progress of biodiversity research, China is well positioned to become a global leader in biodiversity research in the near future.

The Species Composition and Distribution Patterns of Non-Native Fishes in the Main Rivers of South China

Non-native fish invasions are among the greatest threats to the sustainability of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. Tilapia and catfish are regularly cultured in South China which is similar to their climate in native areas and may also support their invasive potential. We systematically collected fish from eight main rivers of South China, from 2016 to 2018, to investigate and analyse species’ composition and the distribution of non-native fishes. The data reveal that non-native fishes are widespread and abundant in the sampled rivers: of the 98,887 fish collected, 11,832 individuals representing 20 species were not native, which were distributed in the 96% sampled sites. Of the non-native fish species, 17 are used in aquaculture and 19 are native to the tropics; 13 are omnivores while the other seven are predators. Based on dissimilarity of the non-native fish species distributions across the eight rivers, the different rivers could be divided into four assemblages. Geographical isolation and temperature were identified as affecting the distribution patterns of non-native fishes, thereby influencing fish species composition, species number, dominant species, and distribution variations in the South China rivers. Species composition of the non-native fishes in these rivers are related to their introduction vector, compatibility with their native habitat, and feeding strategies. Their distribution was mainly influenced by geographical location and temperature. To mitigate the impacts of non-native fish, a series of stricter management practices, systematic monitoring, and more research are needed.

New aliens in Australia: 18 years of vertebrate interceptions

Abstract ContextAustralia has a high diversity of endemic vertebrate fauna. Yet, transnational human activities continue to increase the rate of transportation, introduction and establishment of new alien vertebrates in Australia, to the detriment of environmental and socioeconomic services. Eradication of invasive vertebrates is often costly and without guarantee of success; therefore, methods for detecting, intercepting and preventing the transport of alien species earlier in the invasion pathway provide substantial benefit. AimTo anticipate emergent threats to Australian biosecurity posed by the transport and introduction of new alien vertebrates over time. MethodsWe collated vertebrate interception data from various mainland Australian State, Territory and Commonwealth government reporting agencies, including data from a previously published study, at both pre-border and post-border stages from 1999 to 2016. Using generalised linear and generalised additive modelling, we predicted trends in interception frequency using predictors such as vertebrate taxa, detection category and alien status. Key resultsInterception frequency increased over time for all vertebrate classes, for pre-border stowaways and for post-border captive and at-large interceptions, with no saturation in the accumulation of new species over time. Five species were responsible for almost half of all incidents, of which red-eared sliders (Trachemys scripta elegans), boa constrictors (Boa constrictor) and corn snakes (Pantherophis guttatus) are prominent in Australia’s illegal alien pet trade. Rose-ringed parakeets (Psittacula krameri) are prominent in the legal alien cage-bird trade, which remains poorly regulated. Asian common toads (Duttaphrynus melanostictus) were frequently detected as stowaways, and most stowaway incidents originated from Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, via shipping. Data deficiency for pre-border incidents increased rapidly in 2015 and 2016. ConclusionsAustralia is subject to a persistent and increasing risk of alien vertebrate introductions and incursions over time, owing partly to emergent trends in the alien pet trade as well as increased global trade and tourism. ImplicationsThe future of Australia’s biosecurity remains dependent on stringent border security to prevent the arrival of novel species, but our findings also highlight the importance of ongoing management and control of high-risk species already present, often illegally, within Australia.

Novel predators emit novel cues: a mechanism for prey naivety towards alien predators

Detecting enemies is crucial for survival and a trait that develops over an evolutionary timeframe. Introduced species disrupt coevolved systems of communication and detection in their new ranges, often leading to devastating impacts. The classic example is prey naivety towards alien predators, whereby prey fail to recognise a new predator. Yet exactly why native prey fail to recognise alien predators remains puzzling. Naivety theory predicts that it is because novel predators emit novel cues. Distantly related animals have distinct evolutionary histories, physiologies and ecologies, predicting they will emit different cues. Yet it also possible that all predators emit similar cues because they are carnivorous. We investigate whether odour cues differ between placental and marsupial carnivores in Australia, where native prey experienced only marsupial mammal predation until ~4000 years ago. We compared volatile chemical profiles of urine, scats and bedding from four placental and three marsupial predators. Chemical profiles showed little overlap between placental and marsupial carnivores across all odour types, suggesting that cue novelty is a plausible mechanism for prey naivety towards alien predators. Our results also suggest a role for olfactory cues to complement visual appearance and vocalisations as biologically meaningful ways to differentiate species.

Fast life history traits promote invasion success in amphibians and reptiles

Competing theoretical models make different predictions on which life history strategies facilitate growth of small populations. While ‘fast’ strategies allow for rapid increase in population size and limit vulnerability to stochastic events, ‘slow’ strategies and bet‐hedging may reduce variance in vital rates in response to stochasticity. We test these predictions using biological invasions since founder alien populations start small, compiling the largest dataset yet of global herpetological introductions and life history traits. Using state‐of‐the‐art phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that successful invaders have fast traits, such as large and frequent clutches, at both establishment and spread stages. These results, together with recent findings in mammals and plants, support ‘fast advantage’ models and the importance of high potential population growth rate. Conversely, successful alien birds are bet‐hedgers. We propose that transient population dynamics and differences in longevity and behavioural flexibility can help reconcile apparently contrasting results across terrestrial vertebrate classes.

Unveiling the status of alien animals in the arid zone of Asia

Biological invasion is one of the most threatening factors for biodiversity conservation. Lacking information on alien species in certain regions of the world hampers a balanced understanding of invasion processes and efficient data exchange among stakeholders. Current knowledge gaps are in need of urgent concern. We therefore conducted a review on alien animals in Xinjiang, an unknown region of invasion ecology. Xinjiang lies in the heartland of the Asian continent, covering an area of 1,664,900 km². In the past 64 years, 128 alien animal species were recorded in this region, 39% of which became invasive and led to loss of native biodiversity. Most of these species were introduced through diversification of local agriculture and aquaculture. This process was aggravated by improving transportation and flourishing trade. Multiple linear regression models and correlation analysis were run for explaining influence of environmental and anthropogenic factors on status of alien animals: economically developed areas with abundant water resource, oases in particular, were prone to be hotspots of alien animal species in this arid and semi-arid region. This study also revealed that taxonomically biased and lagged research were critical problems that impeded studies on biological invasions in Xinjiang, and proposed feasible solutions.

Understanding the biological invasion risk posed by the global wildlife trade: propagule pressure drives the introduction and establishment of Nearctic turtles

Biological invasions are a key component of human-induced global change. The continuing increase in global wildlife trade has raised concerns about the parallel increase in the number of new invasive species. However, the factors that link the wildlife trade to the biological invasion process are still poorly understood. Moreover, there are analytical challenges in researching the role of global wildlife trade in biological invasions, particularly issues related to the under-reporting of introduced and established populations in areas with reduced sampling effort. In this work, we use high-quality data on the international trade in Nearctic turtles (1999-2009) coupled with a statistical modelling framework, which explicitly accounts for detection, to investigate the factors that influence the introduction (release, or escape into the wild) of globally traded Nearctic turtles and the establishment success (self-sustaining exotic populations) of slider turtles (Trachemys scripta), the most frequently traded turtle species. We found that the introduction of a species was influenced by the total number of turtles exported to a jurisdiction and the age at maturity of the species, while the establishment success of slider turtles was best associated with the propagule number (number of release events), and the number of native turtles in the jurisdiction of introduction. These results indicate both a direct and indirect association between the wildlife trade and the introduction of turtles and establishment success of slider turtles, respectively. Our results highlight the existence of gaps in the number of globally recorded introduction events and established populations of slider turtles, although the expected bias is low. We emphasize the importance of researching independently the factors that affect the different stages of the invasion pathway. Critically, we observe that the number of traded individuals might not always be an adequate proxy for propagule pressure and establishment success.

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of Sichuan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Shennongjia area, China

Understanding the effects of climate change on primate ranging patterns is crucial for conservation planning. Rhinopithecus roxellana is an endangered primate species distributed in mountainous forests at the elevation of 1500-3500 m a.s.l. in China. Our study site, the Shennongjia National Nature Reserve, represents the eastern-most distribution of this species. This area has experienced significant habitat loss and fragmentation because of human population growth, increased farming and logging, and climate change. To estimate how changes in temperature and rainfall will affect the presumed future distribution of this species, we examined eco-geographic factors including bioclimate, habitat (vegetation type, landcover, etc.), topography, and human impact (human population, gross domestic product, etc.), and provide suggestions for management and conservation. We used a maximum entropy approach to predict the location and distribution of habitats suitable for R. roxellana in the present, 2020, 2050, and 2080 based on 33 environmental parameters, three general circulation models, three emissions scenarios, and two dispersal hypotheses. According to the ensemble modeling, we found range reductions of almost 30% by 2020, 70% by 2050, and over 80% by 2080. Although no obvious differences were found in distribution change based on full and zero dispersal assumptions, our results revealed range reductions in response to elevational, latitudinal, and longitudinal gradients, with the monkeys forced to migrate to higher elevations over time. Bioclimte factors, such as temperature, precipitation, evapo-transpiration, and aridity condition, were dominant contributors to range shifting. As habitat loss due to human influence and climate change is likely to be even more severe in the future, we considered three conservation hot-spots in the Shennongjia area and recommended: (i) securing existing reserves and establishing new reserves, (ii) re-designing management systems to include the Shenongjia reserve and the surrounding reserves and highlighting ecosystem protection at higher elevations, and (iii) using finer-scale research to guide the conservation planning and education in order to enhance protection and awareness in the local community. National and provincial conservation policies should integrate projections of climate change in making effective conservation strategies.